The Tom Feely Football Experience

2008 NFL DRAFT LIVEBLOG

2008-04-26T20:55:00.001-04:00

Welcome to the 2008 NFL Draft liveblog! Keep refreshing, as I'll just keep making edits to this post.

2:44 PM
God, I forgot how much I hated ESPN.

I'll kick things off by saying I like Miami's trade for Anthony Fasano and Akin Ayodele. Fasano's at least good enough to start for a rebuilding team, Ayodele is fine.

2:52 PM

Did the ESPN cameraman just confuse McFadden and Dorsey? Also, apparently Matt Ryan has "IT."

2:53 PM

OH GOD MATT RYAN TALKING. His voice is...lilting?

3:01 PM

Matt Ryan: Personable! Surely a pro on the football field.

3:03 PM

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ARE ON THE CLOCK! SUSPENSE!

Oh, wow, they actually didn't wait.

1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan

I said it yesterday - the best guy available, and just what a rebuilding franchise needs. Extremely safe pick at a crucial position.

TIME FOR THE RAMS! Everyone's saying Chris Long goes here.

3:05 PM

Okay, end the liveblog now, the highlight of the night's already happened: ESPN shows Chris Long, who is...watching the draft on the NFL Network.

3:09 PM

2. St. Louis Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia

Ehhhh. A good pick in and of itself, but I still think last year's pick, Adam Carriker, is better at DE than DT. But still, hard to complain - like the other Long, a safe pick for a bad team.

Atlanta's on the clock! Maybe there'll finally be a pick I can rip.

3:16 PM

3. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

Chris Berman just said the Falcons are "literally" turning over a new leaf. If only I gave him enough credit to think that was a funny Ryan Leaf reference. So yeah, Matt Ryan, essentially Patrick Ramsey but with "IT", with intangibles. Hopefully "IT" or intangibles includes an offensive line. This isn't going to end well, though there's at least the suspense of if people will want him out of town by the time Michael Vick gets out of prison.

C'mooooooooon Oakland.

3:25 PM

4. Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

Thank God the Jets won't be taking him. He's their best running back, so it's not a DISASTER of a pick, but still. Really? He'll be decent if character issues don't knock him out of the league. And hey, on the bright side, at least they may dumbly cut Michael Bush and let him succeed somewhere else. And, for the record, I think Michael Bush has the potential to be much better than McFadden ever will be.

C'mon Hermanator, do something dumb!

3:33 PM

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

Good pick! He's very good. Like the Rams pick, can't complain, but if New Orleans was offering their pick and more, trading down and grabbing Clady might have been worth it.

Jets time, please take Gholston.

3:36 PM

I hate these Coors Light commercials. COACH, PLEASE TALK ABOUT HOW MUCH YOU LOVE BEER, BUT USING THE WORD "FOOTBALL" INSTEAD OF "BEER."

3:42 PM

6. New York Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State

WOO! And Chris Berman immediately kills my buzz by making his usual bad "AND THE JETS HAVE WON THE SUPERBOWL!" joke when the crowd cheers. I have trust in the Jets to not fuck Gholston up, so he should be scary good in 2010 or so.

Time for the Pats pick, which should be fascinating. Keith Rivers?

3:49 PM

Saints trade up! Sedrick Ellis time, most likely.

3:51 PM

...New York Patriots? Stupid Goodell.

7. New Orleans Saints: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

Excellent pick, Ellis was the best player available, fills a need, just wonderful. Hopefully they didn't give up too much to the Pats.

Now what does Baltimore do - will they be smart and take Brohm or will they...oh, they traded the pick. Jacksonville trades up from 26 to 8. Oooh.

3:55 PM

Pats get #10 and a third-rounder, Saints get #7 and a 5th-rounder. Not too bad at all, it seems, though we'll see who the picks wind up being.

3:59 PM

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

Dumb, especially with what they probably gave up. Very dumb. Harvey's a good player, but this is an extreme reach and an extreme price to give up for a player who I don't think is considerably better than fellow DEs Phillip Merlin and Quentin Groves. Duuuuumb.

Bengals are up!

4:04 PM

Oh jeez, Jacksonville gave up a 1st, two 3rd and a 4th. I guess they could've given up a future first, but still.

4:05 PM

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Keith Rivers, LB, USC

Excellent pick. Much like Leon Hall last year - safe pick, fills a need, excellent character. He'll be solid for years, if never a superstar.

Patriots back on the clock.

4:11 PM

10. New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

Ooh, a bit of a surprise, but a good pick. Mayo's a versatile, talented player than they can probably sign a bit cheaper than the slot, and he'll probably be a player more productive in the NFL than in college, like fellow Tennessee Volunteers Travis Henry and...um...not Michael Munoz, not Tee Martin, I guess Peyton Manning can beat a team from Florida now, so him. But yeah, very good pick, especially when ESPN's rumor mill was saying this would be Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. Shit.

Time for the Bills to reach for Devin Thomas!

4:16 PM

11. Buffalo Bills: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

Meh. Better than reaching for any of the receivers on the board, and McKelvin at the very least will be an excellent return man. He'll probably be a solid corner at the worst, plus Troy has become an excellent program for sending defensive players to the pros. I think McKelvin was a bit overrated, and would've rather had Jenkins or mayyyyybe even Antoine Cason from Arizona - but yeah, not Devin Thomas, not Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a solid enough pick.

4:21 PM

12. Denver Broncos: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

Solid pick - he slid a bit to where he probably deserves to be. Not a sure thing by any means, but I like him slightly over Branden Albert or Chris Williams. Kind of the offense equivalent of Vernon Gholston - should be upper-tier in two or three years if he's not screwed around with.

4:26 PM

13. Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

Not good news for DeAngelo Williams. Or Jonathan Stewart, really. Stewart has the potential to be the best back in this draft, and has the potential to have an Adrian Peterson-like impact, but um, an offensive line is kind of necessary for that. It's a deep draft for tackles, so we'll see what the Panthers do later in the draft, but offensive line should've been much more the priority.

4:34 PM

14. Chicago Bears: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

The right pick. No WR worth taking here, I'm not exactly sure Cedric Benson is a bust yet, and Rashard Mendenhall isn't all that impressive. Should at least stick in the league, and could develop into something great.

4:41 PM

Chiefs trade up! Did the Lions actually do the right thing? Whaaaaa.

4:42 PM

15. Kansas City Chiefs: Branden Albert, OG, Virginia

Guard/tackle Branden Albert. The right pick since they need offensive line and he's versatile, but he's raw, so it's no guarantee it'll pan out. I'd take him over Otah, it's a need, it's a gamble, it's the right one.

4:50 PM

Detroit did the right thing! They move up in the third and get a fifth. Trade helps both teams.

4:51 PM

16. Arizona Cardinals: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

Frankly, who knows with these I-AA players, but this guy was taken way too early. I thought legacy only applied to the Ivy League, not the NFL. He wouldn't get half the type without the "Cromartie", and he's a raw but fast player that I wouldn't take ahead of Jenkins, Cason, or the previously taken McKelvin. He could be a star, but he's still the kind of guy you take a flier on late in the second round, not someone you take this high, even though other teams were willing to. At least he didn't go top ten, though.

5:01 PM

Sorry for the delay, had to be away from the computer for a bit.

17. Detroit Lions: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

A...great pick. Really. Kinda forgot about him in the glut of tackles, but he may wind up being better than anyone but Long. And he doesn't have the downside of Albert, Jeff Otah, or even Chris Williams. And it's not Rashard Mendenhall. Wow.

Baltimore trades up to 18 for Houston's pick. Otah or even KU's Anthony Collins could be available later for the Texans. And Baltimore's pick looks like it's...

18. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware

Like Cromartie, unproven and taken way too high. These I-AA guys are a crapshoot, but a franchise QB should've at least beaten out Tyler freakin' Palko at Pitt. He could develop into a solid QB, he could be Giovanni Carmazzi. Like Cromartie, he's the guy you take a flier on in the second round, not someone you TRADE UP to take before Brian Brohm or Chad Henne.

5:08 PM

Carolina trades up with Philly - probably Otah here, kinda curious with Philly trading out of the first round again.

5:09 PM

19. Carolina Panthers: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

A big project. Could be something great, but will probably follow the Dewayne Robertson career path - be decent, but get traded a few years down the line after John Fox gets fired. This will not help Stewart have the Adrian Peterson-type rookie season, although it will help the offensive line down the...line.

5:15 PM

Philly gets Carolina's 2nd, 4th, and 2009 1st. Well done, Andy Reid.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

CHARACTER CONCERNS! Although if Eric Wright could succeed for the Browns so far, Talib should be fine. Very good pick, especially when I was expecting Devin Thomas. Great pick for the system, actually, since the Cover 2 plays to his strengths, or covers his weaknesses.

5:19 PM

Oh, Talib's character concern is pot - IN PRO SPORTS, WHAT? Who cares.

5:26 PM

Atlanta trades up for Washington's spot. Huh.

5:28 PM

21. Atlanta Falcons: Sam Baker, OT, USC

Ooh. Should stick in the league, unsure if he was really worth trading up for though. Probably won't be a left tackle, but probably got a bit underrated after injury concerns this past year. Could've been much more of a reach, but....ehhhhh. Worth it with the run on tackles, I guess.

5:36 PM

22. Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

Perfect. Jones may not be an every-down back, but he's an excellent committee back. And here, he's needed to be...a committee back! Beautiful.

5:42 PM

23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

Okay. He'll be fine. I'm sad for Mewelde Moore. A nice pick - not much more, not much less, and excellent for a young backup.

So will the Titans choose Bennett, Sweed, or the wrong receiver?

5:49 PM

24. Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina

HORRIBLE. HORRIBLE. HORRIBLE. Take Bennett, he's the best and safest WR. Take Sweed, him and VY played in college together. If you want a RB/WR from Conference USA, TAKE ANTHONY ALRIDGE, HE'S ACTUALLY BEEN PLAYING AS A RECEIVER. Fucking awful. Fucking idiotic, especially for a team that took Chris Henry last year. Fucking horrible.

5:57 PM

Dallas trades up! Hm, must be urgent.

25. Dallas Cowboys: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

Excellent. Might be the best cornerback in the draft, and is a safe pick at the very worst. Dallas is having a very good draft.

6:04 PM

26. Houston Texans: Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech

Probably a bit of a reach, but hey, they've always needed a tackle. A bit of an upside pick, but versatile and should wind up somewhere on the offensive line if he doesn't develop into a left tackle.

6:08 PM

27. San Diego Chargers: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

Excellent, safe pick. He'll be a solid cornerback for years, with the potential for more. I'd have taken him over Cromartie definitely, and about even with the rest taken so far.

6:10 PM

Eagles apparently trade a 4th for Lorenzo Booker. Loved the pick when Miami took him, definitely worth the flier.

6:14 PM

28. Seattle Seahawks: Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC

I like the pick - Jackson was a guy I felt had slipped, but he got taken high enough where he's a solid pick rather than a steal. Solid player, was kind of hoping they'd take a QB of the future in Brohm or Henne.

6:17 PM

29. San Francisco 49ers: Kentwaun Balmer, DT, North Carolina

Well, why not. Good pick for a nose tackle - highly rated out of HS but never came on until his senior year. For the need, a good pick.

6:20 PM

Jets trade up to take Green Bay's spot...please be Brohm or Henne.

6:23 PM

The Jets fans chanting for Devin Thomas are idiots.

6:26 PM

30. New York Jets: Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue

Ehhhhh. Better pick than Devin Thomas, but I don't think he was worth trading up for. I don't hate the pick, but it's fine and they didn't give up too much. Still was hoping for the QB of the future, though.

Is Kenny Phillips to the Giants a complete lock?

6:33 PM

31. New York Giants: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

Yes he is. Stupid easy pick. He's not Ed Reed, but an excellent value at this point, and easily the top safety.

6:36 PM

HERE COMES THE SECOND ROUND!

32. Miami Dolphins: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

Great value, probably should've taken a QB though. Excellent developmental player, though.

6:39 PM

33. St. Louis Rams: Donnie Avery, WR, Houston

Whoa, big upset as the first WR off the board. It's not completely dumb, though, as Avery has elite-level speed and a history of production for the Cougars. Honestly, as a high-risk, high-upside attempt for a home-run receiver, this might have been a better choice than Devin Thomas.

6:43 PM

Thank you, local commercials. WHO DID THE REDSKINS PICK? I MUST KNOW!

34. Washington Redskins: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Oh. Well then. Like Trent Edwards last year, Thomas fell to where I can't really mock his selection anymore. I still don't think he'll amount to much, though.

6:45 PM

35. Kansas City Chiefs: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

Excellent pick. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but he should be a good #2 at the worst.

6:49 PM

36. Green Bay Packers: Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State

Ehhhhhh. Not that he'll be a bad player, but Bennett would've definitely been a better pick, and a number of guys possibly could've been - Sweed, Doucet, or in a riskier mold, James Hardy or DeSean Jackson.

6:54 PM

37. Atlanta Falcons: Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma

Excellent pick, unlike Matt Ryan. Lofton's a bit on the small side, but he's one of those high-motor gamers, and should be very good for years to come.

6:58 PM

38. Seattle Seahawks: John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame

Meh. Solid enough pick, Carlson got a bit underrated after UND's horrible year, but they probably could've done better. QB of the future, QB of the future.

7:04 PM

39. San Francisco 49ers: Chilo Rachal, OG, USC

Yay linemen! Raw, high-upside pick - he'll probably develop into something solid at the least.

7:10 PM

40. New Orleans Saints: Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

SPEED! A pretty good value this late on the board, and it fills a need. Very good pick, even if Porter's not a sure thing.

7:16 PM

41. Buffalo Bills: James Hardy, WR, Indiana

Hey, back to back Hoosiers. I like the pick - he's like a safer version on Thomas. Excellent size and athleticism, but very raw, but he's actually produced in college. Should eventually develop into an excellent weapon alongside Lee Evans.

7:20 PM

42. Denver Broncos: Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech

Um...alright. Pretty baffling - Royal wasn't overly productive and is pretty much just a return man. And he's not Devin Hester or anything. Just...baffling, especially with Bennett, Sweed, and, in the same exact mold, DeSean Jackson still on the board. Did they set up a robot to make this pick automatically assuming all those guys would be off the board? I mean, what.

7:23 PM

Minnesota trades up with Philly - oh god, if they take an actual QB, this may be the start of a dynasty.

7:24 PM

43. Minnesota Vikings: Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State

Well, still a good pick - Johnson's a close #2 to Phillips at safety and was an absolute stud at AK State.

ESPN still lists Minnesota at 48, so they may not have traded that 2nd rounder - they may get that QB yet. Although the Bears are on the clock, so they get first dibs.

7:26 PM

ESPN updated their list - nevermind. Sigh. Tarvaris Jackson - really.

7:28 PM

44. Chicago Bears: Matt Forte, RB, Tulane

Should've been Henne or Brohm, but I still really like the pick. Forte's a pretty safe pick, he'll at least be a physical RB to back up Benson, if he doesn't wind up eventually taking the job for his lonesome.

7:34 PM

45. Detroit Lions: Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado

Ooh, interesting. Dizon's a low-measurables, excellent-motor guy who'll probably stick if not excel.

7:38 PM

46. Cincinnati Bengals: Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina

Who knows? Apparently he's a deep threat, I have no idea what Earl Bennett or Limas Sweed did to people.

7:44 PM

47. Philadelphia Eagles: Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame

Very good value here - Laws is a pretty good, high-motor guy, and the best DT left.

7:46 PM

48. Washington Redskins: Fred Davis, TE, USC

Excellent value - Davis is as good as Keller, who the Jets traded up to get late in the first. And Davis is in the same mold - all catch, no block.

7:51 PM

49. Philadelphia Eagles: DeSean Jackson, WR, California

Excellent excellent excellent pick. Fills a need for depth at receiver, fills a need as a return man, just beautiful. Philly really didn't even need a first-rounder, they've gotten two first-round talents in the second.

7:55 PM

50. Arizona Cardinals: Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

Another excellent value pick. Campbell's 6-8 and a great developmental prospect - he could be scary come 2011 or so.

8:01 PM

51. Washington Redskins: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

Very good pick, though I'd rather have taken Sweed or Bennett. Fills a need, an still excellent value, though.

8:05 PM

52. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn

Jacksonville traded up to get this pick. So...they traded for Derrick Harvey why, then?

8:08 PM

53. Pittsburgh Steelers: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

Beautiful. SWEET SWEET VALUE.

Tennessee takes Bennett here or their draft is horrible.

8:17 PM

54. Tennessee Titans: Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan

A nice pick of an underrated guy, but still - idiots.

8:19 PM

55. Baltimore Ravens: Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

Lotta R's. Pretty solid pick - he might wind up being better than McGahee pretty soon.

8:22 PM

56. Green Bay Packers: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

The Madden Curse strikes Aaron Rodgers - they drafted a QB way better than him.

Miami's next - if it's Henne, they have an excellent draft.

8:27 PM

57. Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne, QB, Michigan

Beautiful. Henne's as much of a sure thing as any QB in this draft, sorely what this team needs. Beautiful.

8:33 PM

58. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dexter Jackson, WR, Appalachian State

A raw project - if Jerome freakin' Simpson went off the board, why not. I feel bad for Earl Bennett, unless he winds up at like Dallas or the Giants.

8:38 PM

59. Indianapolis Colts: Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State

Easily the best center out there, low-risk, should be pretty good and hey, he gets to be groomed by some pretty good guys. The Colts are good at this.

8:43 PM

60. Green Bay Packers: Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn

Huh. Well then. A bit of a reach - Lee is mediocre, and there are guys like Reggie Smith, Justin King, Charles Godfrey, Trae Williams, and others on the board.

8:46 PM

61. Dallas Cowboys: Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M

An excellent gamble. An elite prospect out of high school, an insane physical specimen, but didn't really produce up to that level. He could easily blossom into something great, and with Witten around, there's not an insane amount of pressure or anything. I'm loving Dallas's draft.

8:48 PM

62. New England Patriots: Terrence Wheatley, CB, Colorado

Safe, solid pick who'll contribute. Shit.

Giants close out the night next!

8:53 PM

63. New York Giants: Terrell Thomas, CB, USC

Very good pick, some injury concerns. One of the better players left. Good for the Giants.

So that's it for Day One - I won't give any full-on grades or anything, I'll let that wait until the draft is over - but off the top of my head, I like Miami, Dallas and Philly's drafts, while Tennessee are king idiots. In terms of second day coverage, I'm playing it by ear, but until next time, same Feely time, same Feely channel.

Seriously, I'm Not Dead: A Belated(?) 2008 NFL Draft Preview

2008-04-25T23:06:00.000-04:00

Alright, here we go. A maybe quick, maybe not, we'll see summation of my thoughts on the 2008 draft class. I'll be liveblogging, at the very least, the first day of the draft tomorrow - the second day's still up in the air, I may have some family commitments due to Greek Easter, but I'll definitely chime in early next week on my second day thoughts at the worst. FOOTBALL SEASON IS STARTING BACK UP. So, let's kick it off with my top five prospects:

1. Jake Long, OT, Michigan: The Dolphins got it right, although honestly, that says more about the lack of a standout player in this draft than anything else. I don't think Long is quite Joe Thomas, but he's an extremely safe pick. At worst, he'll be very good, and at best, he'll be a ten-year franchise tackle and a Pro Bowl mainstay.

2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU: The knee injuries are a bit of a concern - God, what cheapshots by Auburn - but he's every bit the prospect as Long. I gave Long the #1 ranking because of the premium I put on his position, and again, the minor injury concerns with Dorsey, but Dorsey's also a guy who, at worst, will be a very good player (and may have a reputation to get voted to the Pro Bowl a bunch of times anyway.)

3. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville: Yes, really. Brohm is the best QB in this class by a mile, and the only one with superstar potential. He's a four year starter with a wonderful pedigree, and the only real concern is injuries - ironic that he actually stayed healthy his senior year, but got knocked down possibly a round because...well, his team's defense was awful? Louisville was only a 6-6 team, but that was no fault of Brohm, as without him they'd...well, probably still be 6-6, but that's only because backup Hunter Cantwell may be the best QB in the '09 class. But the point stands.

4. Chris Long, DE, Virginia: Barely over #5. Probably the safest pick in this draft, kind of like A.J. Hawk a few years ago - he'll step in and contribute immediately, even if he doesn't have the supposed upside of some other guys. That's not really much of a knock though - the other guys have the potential to be the best in the NFL at their position (well, Indy and New England have pretty good QBs, so maybe not Brohm), while Chris Long will probably "only" be a many-time Pro Bowler at best. Not bad when there seems to be no real worst case scenario.

5. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State: He's going to be very good. He's going to need time to develop, so someone could possibly fuck it up, which is why I have him below Chris Long. But still - dude's scary, and if bad coaching hasn't ruined him (say, if he winds up in Oakland and God only knows what happens) in two or three years, he'll be one of the league leaders in sacks.

QUARTERBACKS:

1. Brian Brohm, Louisville

2. Chad Henne, Michigan: I went back and forth between him and Ryan, but gave Henne the edge for consistency throughout his college career. Four year starter, completion percentage around 60%. The fact that there's really nothing to say about Henne and I have him #2 in the class kind of underscores the blahness of this group. He's projected about where he should go - second-roundish. He'll be a fine NFL quarterback, best case have a career path like Chad Pennington, where he'll be a decent starter with maybe a top-tier year or two sprinkled in, and worst-case he'll wind up as a Brian Griese-type spot starter/top backup.

3. Matt Ryan, Boston College: The same guy as Henne, except he's been doing it only three years and tied for #2 in the NCAA in interceptions (thank you, North Texas's Giovanni Vizza). Ryan's a fine QB, nothing more, nothing less - though, to be fair, he WAS the best offensive player in the ACC when Clemson didn't feel like showing up. God the ACC was horrible last year. Anyway, let's play WHICH QUARTERBACK WOULD YOU WANT BASED ON THEIR 2007 STATS:

1. 388/654 (59.3%), 4507 yards, 6.9 yards/att, 31/19 TD/INT
2. 308/473 (65.1%), 4024 yards, 8.5 yards/att, 30/12 TD/INT
3. 359/510 (70.4%), 4343 yards, 8.5 yards/att, 38/17 TD/INT

QB #2 looks the best - efficient both in terms of completions as well as TD's vs. INT's. That's Brian Brohm. QB #3's also pretty good - the TD/INT ratio isn't as shiny, but man, look at that completion percentage. That's Colt Brennan, he of the supposedly untouchable statistics in the Hawaii offense that does nothing but pass. Yet Matt Ryan, QB #1, somehow had 25% MORE attempts than Brennan (and I realize Brennan had some injury problems, but 25%?) and...meh. He looks like a decent guy who got a bunch of counting stats because his team threw the ball a hell of a lot. I don't mean to dump on Ryan, but the man's just not worthy of a top 10 pick. He should probably go around the same place as someone who I saw as a comparison, a perfect comparison for the disappointing but perfectly fine career that I see Ryan having - the last pick of the 2002 first round, Patrick Ramsey. Please wind up somewhere with an offensive line, Matt!

4. John David Booty, USC: A more intriguing/risky version of the two guys above. He'll probably be a safe pick, as he has a pedigree and excellent college numbers, he's not viewed as much of an "upside" guy, but still, I have the lingering feeling this guy is undervalued. His one healthy year as a starter was comparable to one of Henne's or Ryan's best years, and he still put up very good numbers despite struggling with a thumb injury. I don't think he has the superstar potential of Brohm, but he could wind up the #2 QB in this class pretty easily.

5. Andre' Woodson, Kentucky: Hey, this guy. This forgotten guy. Not ready to be a starter at all at this point, but please explain why JaMarcus Russell was the slam dunk #1 pick in '07 and Woodson may fall to the second day. Because Russell beat Notre Dame in a bowl game? Everyone does that! Anyway, Woodson's an excellent developmental QB, and falling far could be a blessing if he winds up in a position to be brought along slowly. This guy, he has the potential to be the top QB in this class when all's said and done. Or he could be out of the league by 2011 because of bad mechanics.

6. Joe Flacco, Delaware: ???. These I-AA guys are a crapshoot - Flacco has nice numbers, nice size, but again, who knows with these guys. He's a better prospect than Tarvaris Jackson - how's that for faint praise? This is where "guy who may be pretty good" rates in this class relative to the other known quantities.

7. Dennis Dixon, Oregon: Another crapshoot guy. Who knows with the knee. Who knows if he had the capability to be a starter before the knee. Dixon had a 12/14 TD/INT ratio splitting time as a junior, then broke the fuck out his senior year, with a 67.6 completion percentage, a 20/4 TD/INT ratio, and hey, the guy can run too. He could very well be a one-year wonder, but hey, worth a shot.

8. Colt Brennan, Hawaii: There's SOMETHING there. Whether it's NFL talent or just the skill set to be the fucking awesomest Arena League QB ever, we'll see.

9. Paul Smith, Tulsa: He could easily be #6, as Smith is sort of Kevin Kolb Lite. Three year starter, not four. Tulsa wasn't quite as highly touted as Houston. And while both run neato offenses, Smith's college stats are a hair worse. Still, the guy's pretty good, and while a backup/3rd QB career is likely his future, I wouldn't be surprised if he wound up like, say, Tim Rattay, getting drafted very late and starting at the occassional point in time.

10. Erik Ainge, Tennessee: He really was awful those first two years. Still, he's gotten much better. Not much to get excited about, he'll probably stick around as...I dunno, whatever Chris Simms is sticking around as. Is Chris Simms still in the league? Wikipedia says Chris Simms is still in the league! Good for him.

OTHER PEOPLE, IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:

Josh Johnson, San Diego: His 2007 stat line, just because it should be posted: 206/301 (68.4%), 2988 yards, 9.9 yards/att, 43/1 TD/INT. Yes, 43/1. And he ran for 726 yards and 2 TD. He probably won't stick, and if so it'll probably be at WR or something, but still - that's neat.

Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State: Looks like a quarterback, but as far as playing like one? Ehhhh.

Anthony Morelli, Penn State: See Kevin O'Connell, add in laughter instead of "Ehhhh."

Matt Flynn, LSU: Matt Mauck stuck around the league for a few years, so there's hope.

Alex Brink, Washington State: Like Paul Smith, could stick around the league for quite awhile, and maybe even start occassionally. He had a great individual college career while accomplishing pretty much nothing. He's like Ken Dorsey at Miami, but stuck in some horrible alternate universe.

Sam Keller, Nebraska: Ehhhh. I like him more than a lot of the other guys in this section (I definitely have him behind Brink, others I'm not so sure), but he probably won't amount to much.

Ricky Santos, New Hampshire: Named the top I-AA player of 2006, and put up some wacky stats (if not quite Josh Johnson wacky) over his career. Has an excellent four-year track record, and is regarded as having leadership and such, so he'll probably stick around for quite a bit.

Omar Haugabook, Troy: Raw as shit, but there's definitely something there, both physically and statistically. Definitely a guy worth a late-round flier as something more than training camp fodder.

T.C. Ostrander, Stanford: I've seen him in mock drafts. Why?

RUNNING BACKS:

1. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: Yeah, fuck it. He could easily be a bust, especially with his recent surgery, but if any guy has a chance to have an Adrian Peterson-esque impact, it's this guy. He's strong, he's fast, he's underrated for playing in the Pac 10, I'm a fan.

2. Darren McFadden, Arkansas: I don't see it. He's a top-15 talent, yes, probably a top-10 one, but I don't see the arguments that he's the best player in this class. He's not quite as overrated as Matt Ryan, but I see it as a similar situation, where Arkansas ran their offense through the man, and he was able to put up excellent counting stats that way. But yeah, he's still starting material, he could see a Pro Bowl or two, but as far as an absolute stud sure thing? Meh.

3. Felix Jones, Arkansas: Worth a late-first pick. He holds the NCAA career record for yards per carry, so there's definitely something there. Just don't know what. At least Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams had years where they carried a whole workload in college - Felix Jones is much more of an unknown. He's an unknown quantity that will almost surely be very good - and in this class, that's where that ranks.

4. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: Meh. Never overly impressed me, but he's a solid back without much wear and tear on him. Probably shouldn't go top 15 or whatever people are projecting, but he should stick as long as he isn't run out of the league for being a supposed bust.

5. Anthony Alridge, Houston: Curveball! Alridge has been alternately listed as a RB and WR where I've seen him, and he's done both in college. He's a very good return man, a pretty good receiver, and oh yeah - as a junior he ran for 10.1 yards a carry. And not as a fluke, it was over 95 carries. Alridge has elite level speed and athleticism, versatility, and college production, and while it may be a bit of a flier, in a class this weak, he could at least be, say, a poor man's version of what Reggie Bush was supposed to be. Hey, that'd make him the real Reggie Bush! Neat.

6. Ray Rice, Rutgers: He's been flying a bit under the radar, though there's not much to say about him. He's very good, probably doesn't have the size or athleticism to be great, but should stick around as a committee back/backup for quite awhile.

7. Matt Forte, Tulane: A hard-nosed back with potential as a receiver who was productive as fuck at Tulane. Like Rice, probably doesn't have the physical tools to be a stud or anything, but he could easily be a physical back that winds up having an out of nowhere year, like say, Justin Fargas.

8. Jamaal Charles, Texas: Ehhh. Would've liked to see him do it again after his breakout junior year. Still, talent and potential are there, and hey, he had one more breakout year than a lot of guys do.

9. Mike Hart, Michigan: Good enough to stick, but too tiny/injured to guarantee doing much else.

10. Chris Johnson, East Carolina: Another one-year wonder, and much more of an out of nowhere one. Sure is fast, though. I'm not convinced.

11. Kevin Smith, Central Florida: 450 carries? Really? Based on talent, Smith could be bumped up past Hart at the worst and Rice at the best, but after 450 carries, I'm not sure he has anything left in him.

OTHER RUNNING BACKS:

Steve Slaton, West Virginia: I've said for years he's a system back, I just figured before a few months ago that someone would waste a first-round pick before figuring it out.

Chauncey Washington, USC: Has been stuck with the "dumb" tag. I am skeptical of him.

Tony Temple, Missouri: Had the awesome Cotton Bowl, which pretty much assures him a chance to stick. Could be a solid backup, could be out of the league due to injuries by 2010.

Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State: A solid running back, nothing more, nothing less. The type of guy who winds up undrafted and starting for the Broncos in two years.

Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech: Like Temple, another high-production, high-injury risk type. Probably has more upside than Temple.

Allen Patrick, Okahoma: Intriguing - never was a full-time back for the Sooners, but always looked pretty good. Could be the surprise of this class.

Justin Forsett, California: Meh. Size and speed (or lack thereof) are working against him, sadly. The type of guy who could stick if the stars align just right, but will probably wind up cut in training camp or some such.

Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State: Small, but was consistently productive and has the talent to stick. Probably not durable enough to ever be a starter, but there's committee back-type upside here if things play out correctly.

Ryan Torain, Arizona State: Physical back that had one great year coming out of junior college before missing most of his senior year with a foot injury. If he can get back to 100%, he could be a steal as a developmental back. If.

Jehuu Caulcrick, Michigan State: An intriguing prospect, just a big ol' dude who, at the very least, will be an excellent short-yardage/goal-line back. Which actually probably makes him the surest thing out of these guys.

Owen Schmitt, West Virginia and Peyton Hillis, Arkansas: TOKEN FULLBACKS

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Devin Thomas, Michigan State: What? Because Malcolm Kelly sucked at his workout, Thomas may actually be the first receiver off the board. Um, I guess Troy Williamson was a better pick than Mike Williams, but does nobody learn from these workout warriors?

Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt: Probably the best receiver in a class I don't really like. Kind of like Chris Long, there's not much of a downside, and while he may not have "upside", the upside is a very good player while a lot of the other guys could be busts.

Limas Sweed, Texas: The other contender for best WR in this class - a bit of an unknown thanks to a wrist injury that cost him most of 2007. Should stick fairly easily, but I'm not sure if the star potential is there.

DeSean Jackson, California: His small size is a killer, but he should be an excellent return man at the very least. Definitely behind Bennett, but #3 behind Sweed at the worst.

Mario Manningham, Michigan: Hey, this guy. A forgotten man thanks to some sort of character issues. Chris Henry showed that's a concern and all, but in a class this weak, he's probably still worth a high second-rounder or so for a team jonesing for a WR. Could wind up being the best receiver in this class, or could wind up out of the league by 2012 or so.

Early Doucet, LSU: Like Bennett, a fairly safe pick, although Doucet comes with the downside of an injury history.

Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma: OU receivers - meh. His horrible workouts were a killer, and just...blah. My gut feeling is he'll probably be a Rashaun Woods-type bust. (Yes, I know Woods was OK State, for the record.)

Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State: Speaking of OK State, another forgotten man for reasons I'm not entirely sure of. Should wind up being a solid #2 or #3, and could easily be a steal if he drops to the later rounds.

James Hardy, Indiana: ATHLETICISM! Hardy was at least consistently decent before his breakout junior year, so I think his workouts are less of a red herring re: his potential than, say, Devin Thomas's.

TIGHT ENDS:

THERE ARE SOME!

You know, I'll leave the rest for the liveblog - frankly, the skill position players are always the most interesting to write about, and this took way longer than I had figured on. See you in 16 hours!

NOT DEAD

2008-02-16T11:39:00.003-05:00

Sorry for the lull - this whole working world thing has been taking up most of my time and exhausting me otherwise, but now that I seem to have a routine down and my first wave of licensing exams is done with, things'll get up and going again. Watch this space!

BOWLNANZA 2008: The BCS Championship. Bowl.

2008-01-05T20:30:00.000-05:00

#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #3 LSU (11-2)

This is really much too familiar. Unlike Florida last year, I feel LSU legitimately deserves to be here (yes, USC's playing better, but they lost to Stanford and can go away), but on paper, this is OSU and OSU's game easy. There's the perception that the Buckeyes are the result of a weak schedule, but even allowing that (which I don't agree with), they've absolutely dominated that weak schedule like a #1 team should. Their only win that was close was against Michigan State, in a game where OSU outgained the Spartans by 235 yards. They've racked up the offense - outside of the Michigan game, they've cracked 350 yards in all their wins - and absolutely dominated on defense, holding 5 of their 12 opponents under 200 yards. This is not a paper tiger. But that said, there are cracks in the armor - even though OSU held Michigan to only 95 yards, the Buckeyes' 281 yards and 14 points was their worst output of the year. And that was coming off the heels of the Illinois loss, an absolute sore thumb of an anomaly where OSU's elite run defense was gashed for 260 yards. A mobile QB can throw a wrench in Ohio State's machine, and uh oh, LSU has one of those in Ryan Perrilloux! As for the Tigers, they're a bit of an enigma. They started out as an absolute monster going on a five-game tear where they looked like one of the all-time great teams, including a 48-7 whipping of Virginia Tech. But after being punched in the mouth by Tim Tebow's Florida Gators, LSU hasn't looked nearly as good, Louisiana Tech game aside. There's been, obviously, the overtime losses against Kentucky and Arkansas, as well as games against Auburn and Alabama that weren't close statistically, but wound up as LSU wins by 6 and 7 points respectively. But the real headscratcher is their 41-24 win against the Mississippi Rebels, where that stout LSU defense somehow gave up 478 yards to the bad offense of a bad team. As much flak as OSU's gotten for playing in the supposedly weak Big Ten, I think we can agree that most of that conference is better than Ole freakin' Miss. And really, that game in particular among LSU's late stretch makes me say that, if Ohio State's offense hadn't been stumbling down the stretch, the Buckeyes would be the easy pick. If that Buckeye offense had been rolling all year, this would be a no-brainer - Ohio State would get their points against the LSU defense either way, and would likely be able to hold the Tigers to enough where they could win, say, a 28-24ish game. But with the OSU offense faltering a bit, the spectre of that LSU/Virginia Tech game lurks - LSU could absolutely shut down an ineffective offense and has the offensive talent to put things away early and make it ugly late. But Ohio State is easily better than Virginia Tech - the Hokies are near the bottom in terms of offense, and while they have the statistically great defense, offensive talent in the ACC is down to Matt Ryan and the skill position players for Clemson. But it's that little seed of doubt planted in the OSU/Michigan game that makes this interesting - yeah, OSU absolutely shut down that Wolverine offense, but LSU probably won't roll over so easy, and if the LSU defense plays at 100% of their ability, they're easily better than the Michigan D that the Buckeyes didn't look too great against. Still, I'll go with my initial gut feeling - that Ohio State defense is quite excellent, and I mean, come on, Ole Miss?

My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2008: The GMAC Bowl

2008-01-05T19:53:00.000-05:00

Bowling Green (8-4) vs. Tulsa (9-4)

YARDS! Who gains the most yards per game in the NCAA? No, not Hawaii or Texas Tech, but the mighty Golden Hurricane of Tulsa, on the arm of QB Paul Smith and on the...something of one of the worst defenses in the nation. BGSU is slightly less extreme, but cut from the same cloth: throw it a lot, and have a porous MACtastic defense. BGSU's a legitimately fine team, and this'll be the type of shootout where either team can win, but Tulsa has the much more impressive resume, being able to outgun BYU and destroy Houston, while Bowling Green has been above-average is a horribly down year for the MAC. Tulsa should be the favorite, but it's about a 55/45 pick 'em, so just sit back and watch the fireworks.

My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2008: The International Bowl

2008-01-02T20:44:00.000-05:00

Ball State (7-5) vs. Rutgers (7-5)

If Mike Teel doesn't decide to throw this one away via interception, it could get ugly. Ball State has a high-powered offense, but that's probably been somewhat bolstered by playing MAC and Nebraska defenses, a far cry from Rutgers' top-fifteen unit, #2 against the pass. Expect Ray Rice to run at will. Yawn.

My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2008: The Orange Bowl

2008-01-02T19:09:00.000-05:00

#8 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #9 Kansas (11-1)

Virginia Tech's had an interesting little year. They remained highly ranked for most of the year's start, despite getting absolutely annihilated by LSU and not looking all that impressive in quite a few of their wins. Then they just had enough, finishing the regular season by dominating Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia (although they didn't look overly great in the ACC title game against BC). As for Kansas, the conventional wisdom is pretty much spot on - the offense is excellent, the defense is pretty good, and they're still somewhat of an unknown because of a weak schedule. Wait, an elite opportunistic defense and an inconsistent offense facing a team that looks excellent on paper but has lots of questions about their level of competition? Thank God I'm making this pick after watching the Sugar Bowl.

My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2008: The Fiesta Bowl

2008-01-01T21:28:00.000-05:00

#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #10 West Virginia (10-2)

Weird note of the day: Oklahoma has the better scoring and yardage offense, while West Virginia takes both categories on defense. And honestly, if it wasn't for WVU's shocking implosion against Pitt, this would be no contest - for 11 games, West Virginia marched down the field mostly at will, regardless of who was across the field. But the question is, can they do it against that Oklahoma defense? And the answer is yes. The Sooners have faced a number of high-powered offenses, and outside of North Texas, haven't really shut down any. Tulsa was kept somewhat in check, as was OK State, but Texas Tech, Missouri, and yes, the almighty Baylor, all broke 400 yards fairly easily. Combine that with an underrated Mountaineer D, and God help me, I'm picking an interim coach to win.

My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2008: New Year's Day

2008-01-01T02:33:00.000-05:00

I'll have my schedule down next year, I swear.

OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2

COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3

CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4

GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3

ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3

SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: New Year's Eve

2007-12-31T01:04:00.000-05:00

Quick hits, since it's been a long weekend.

THE ARMED FORCES BOWL

Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2

THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL

Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3

THE SUN BOWL

#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3

THE MUSIC CITY BOWL

#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3

THE INSIGHT BOWL

Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2

THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Independence Bowl

2007-12-30T02:12:00.000-05:00

Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)

It's 2 AM, and I have my limits. Both these teams are about 6-6 good, both have decent offenses (kinda), and Alabama has the much better defense. And the locational advantage. This will be boring, the Tide will likely win.

My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Alamo Bowl

2007-12-28T19:25:00.000-05:00

#25 Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

This'll be quick. Penn State is good at everything, and could be an elite team if Anthony Morelli didn't often decide to be Anthony Morelli. Texas A&M was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year, but decided to eschew the excellent pass/run balance on offense that made them underrated last season for running the ball a lot for lots of yardage but little results, mostly thanks to an absolutely horrible secondary. So the million dollar question: Can Anthony Morelli blow it against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation? My answer: Probably, but the Penn State defense won't let him.

My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Liberty Bowl

2007-12-28T19:13:00.000-05:00

Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)

UCF is the unquestioned best team in C-USA, tearing through the conference on the back of stud RB Kevin Smith, who's about to break the single-season rushing record - enjoy it while it lasts, before the surely disappointing senior season hits. As for outside of the conference, who knows. They beat NC State and played Texas close in games that went, statistically, slightly worse than their scores, but turned around and got absolutely annihilated by South Florida. Luckily, Mississippi State seems to fall more in the NC State category among those teams - the Bulldogs had 4 close and/or slightly fluky SEC wins against Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss, and beat the out of conference juggernauts of Tulane, Gardner-Webb, and UAB (and even UAB was close.) On the plus side, their run defense is not horrible and they DID hold Darren McFadden to only 88 yards, and Kentucky may be better than UCF, so the Bulldogs could in fact luck into a win. But I wouldn't count on it.

My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Meineke Car Care Bowl

2007-12-28T19:04:00.000-05:00

Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)

WELCOME TO YOUR FUTURE, UCONN. This year's team that has a good season despite all statistical evidence otherwise meets last year's. UConn's not horrible or anything - they're much better than Syracuse - but in the Big East, they're probably the 6th best team in the conference max, maaaaaybe 5th, and I can't definitively put them ahead of everyone except the aforementioned Cuse. As for Wake, they're actually pretty nondescript - every game was close statistically or scorewise, save being completely destroyed by Clemson - they could always win, they could always lose. Statistically, despite being a lower-tier Big East team, UConn actually holds the edge in every yardage category except for run defense, where Wake is an excellent team - this is both a condemnation of the ACC and something that makes the game interesting, since Tyler Lorenzen is very much not a quarterback that can win a game by himself. I went into this thinking I'd pick Wake, thanks to UConn having such a fluke year and the homefield advantage (the game's in Charlotte), but Wake's no great shakes either and UConn actually holds most of the statistical edges. Based on both team's seasons, it'll almost assuredly be a close game, but I'll go with the statistically better team, and hey, a slight bit of bias doesn't hurt.

My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Emerald Bowl

2007-12-27T17:14:00.000-05:00

Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)

I'm sure there's intrigue here. Oregon State has the #2 rush defense in the country, and Maryland has some pretty good running backs. There's some, I suppose. This really is a horribly boring game - Maryland has a slight edge in pass defense, but other than that, OSU has the slight edge in everything else, and neither team is all that terribly impressive at anything, except for that aforementioned #2 rush defense. And it's not like either of these teams played all that out of whack compared to its record. This may not be that bad of a game, actually - they're capable of playing pretty close, hopefully in a game of the high-scoring variety, but it's dreadfully devoid of any drama or storyline. Oregon State's the slightly better team, so I'll give them the nod.

My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Texas Bowl

2007-12-27T16:58:00.000-05:00

Houston (8-4) vs. TCU (7-5)

Houston's been one of the more underrated teams in the country - outside of a completely shocking annihilation at the hands of Tulsa, the Cougars have held a statistical edge in all of their games, including losses to Oregon and Alabama. On the other side of the coin, TCU's been horribly disappointing - they've been a fine Mountain West team, but for a supposed potential BCS buster, their only impressive game was a complete shutdown of New Mexico two-thirds of the way through the season. Houston has one of the top offenses in the nation, and a balanced one at that, so there's some interest in seeing how they do against a TCU defense that's #16 in scoring and #17 in yardage. But for such high rankings, the Horned Frog D hasn't been all that impressive of late - they gave up 441 yards to San Diego State in the season finale, and 417 to an admittedly much better BYU team. The potential for a TCU win is definitely there - they've underachieved all year based on their talent, and the loss of coach Art Briles may affect Houston - but based on how they've played the last 12 games, this should be a Houston win, and perhaps an easy one at that.

My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Champs Sports Bowl

2007-12-27T16:47:00.000-05:00

#23 Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)

What looks like a mismatch may in fact be a neat little game. As I've said many times, BC was their usual 8 or so win-level team, but the ACC was bad enough this year that that got them 10 wins. And MSU's a better team than their record - all of their losses were by a touchdown or less (although they were EXTREMELY lucky to keep it that close against Ohio State), and 2 of them were in overtime. And there are some neat variables that have yet to play themselves out - Michigan State's two-headed running back monster, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, will be facing the nation's #1 run defense, but a vulnerable BC secondary is there for the Spartans to take advantage of - but will they? And that's really the main question, since Matt Ryan should be able to do well against a Michigan State secondary that, while solid, should be able to slow, not stop him. Still, I'll call for a Spartans upset - MSU's due to win a close game, aren't they?, plus they're the team that probably wants to be here.

My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Holiday Bowl

2007-12-27T16:32:00.000-05:00

#11 Arizona State (10-2) vs. #17 Texas (9-3)

Quite an intriguing little matchup, even if neither team is all that impressive - Arizona State is an 8-4 level team that caught a few breaks, while Texas has much higher standards as of late, and still has that horrible pass defense. And really, that's the crux of the matchup between the two teams. Texas is probably the better overall team, but the way the teams match up favors Arizona State to the extreme. Both teams have great quarterbacks, but Texas's pass defense is the MUCH worse of the two, and Texas's late-game hero, Jamaal Charles, will be facing a rush defense that finished just outside the top ten. I'll give the Sun Devils the nod here, if only because of the severe favoritism the statistics have for them, but I won't call for it to be much more than a squeaker of a win.

My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Motor City Bowl

2007-12-26T15:10:00.000-05:00

Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5)

The second rematch bowl of the year, which is quite odd. Central Michigan's been a very disappointing team (although Western was the most disappointing directional Michigan this season) - while the Chippewas somehow won the MAC, they did so in much less than impressive fashion, and have gotten absolutely smoked outside of the conference. Clemson laid an amazing 70-14 beatdown upon them, and they've lost by 30 or more against Kansas and, yes, the immortal North Dakota State. Oh, and they also got blown out by this Purdue team. And really, while ECU beating Boise shows anything can happen, I don't expect much else than an encore. Purdue's not a great team by any shakes, but they can put up a whole bunch of yardage and points against a suspect defense, and CMU's may be the most suspect of any bowl team, especially those outside of Oklahoma (OK State and Tulsa's are also very bad.) CMU actually has gained more yardage per game, so this may not be a blowout, but expect a shootout, and expect Purdue to win by, say, 10 to 14 points.

My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Hawaii Bowl

2007-12-23T13:35:00.000-05:00

Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5)

Boise State hasn't dropped off much from last year - they've been a clear powerhouse in the WAC, Hawaii game aside, and their absolute destruction of New Mexico State remains one of the more impressive performances of the year. I have no problem with ECU, and Chris Johnson is one of the three C-USA backs that consistently put up insane single-game lines, but they're a mediocre team that's honestly lucky to be here - my metrics have them as about a 4 or 5 win team. On the other hand, that shows that they can win even when they probably shouldn't, and if Boise has trouble getting going, either via commute or bad flashbacks to their last game at Aloha Stadium - the Pirates could easily pull off the upset. Or Ian Johnson could run for 5 touchdowns and make this painful to watch.

My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA: The Saturday Bowls

2007-12-21T21:54:00.000-05:00

Sorry, but I'm overworked, exhausted, and sick with something, so I'm just going to bang these out quick and hope I'm better tomorrow. Not that tomorrow's matchups are all that deserving of much attention:

THE PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)
USM pretty much played to their record, while Cincy is probably closer to 7-5ish - that offense is excellent, but their defense has been only decent yardage-wise while elite scoring-wise. So there should be some regression to the mean there. Cincy could easily win this in a blowout, but I'll call for the Golden Eagles to upset a slightly overrated team and sending out coach Jeff Bower in style.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 1

THE NEW MEXICO BOWL
Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)
Despite the homefield advantage, I think Nevada could win this one and make it ugly. The records should probably be reversed, as Nevada has an excellent offense and a defense that gave up more points than it statistically should've - plus UNM has a lethargic offense that will only be worse without RB Rodney Ferguson.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3

THE LAS VEGAS BOWL
#20 BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6)
It's actually kind of a shame that BYU, after an excellent year, will have their bowl wasted on a team that may have only been 6-6 in the MWC themselves. Yawn.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4

BOWLNANZA 2007: The New Orleans Bowl

2007-12-20T18:06:00.000-05:00

Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5)

Florida Atlantic's the surprise champion of the Sun Belt conference, earning their way here by beating Troy, who had dominated the league all year. The Owls are a bit of a conundrum - they have the upset win over Minnesota, which, even though it's Minnesota, is a Sun Belt team beating a BCS conference team, and FAU hung in there against South Florida in the middle of the season. But when you look at their conference games, outside of their season-opening win against Middle Tennessee State, all their wins weren't really that impressive. On the year statistically, there's not much inspiring there - the offense is pretty good, the defense is below-average. And hey, Miami architect (of the Hurricanes program, not an actual architect) Howard Schnellenberger is their coach - that's neat.

Memphis is even less inspiring. The Tigers actually have a top 25 offense, but a very poor defense, and that 7-5 record about says it all. They're a slightly above-average Conference USA team, better than the UABs, SMUs, and Marshalls of the conference, if not appreciably so most of the time. Martin Hankins is a solid quarterback, completing about 61% for 2939 yards on the year. Exciting stuff.

Troy winning the Sun Belt might've made this game more interesting, although the Trojans would likely project out to be a demonstratably better team than Memphis. As it is, I'm kind of down on FAU - a Sun Belt team really needs to be appreciably better than the rest of the conference, and the Owls aren't that. This could be a fun little shootout, but bank on Memphis being the one to put up more points.

My Pick: Memphis
Confidence (out of 5): 3

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Poinsettia Bowl

2007-12-19T19:56:00.000-05:00

Navy (8-4) vs. Utah (8-4)

Navy is what they always are - #1 in rushing offense, this year by over 50 yards per game, and somewhat suspect thanks to a weak schedule and a somewhat non-existent defense. They've been solid, but haven't really had a dominating win - they put up 74 on North Texas, but gave up 62 in the process, the Army game was much more close statistically than the 38-3 final score, and hell, they lost to Delaware. There's also the question of if the loss of coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will affect the team, but the immediate promotion of top assistant Ken Niumatalolo to the head spot should mitigate that somewhat, if not completely.

Utah's a confusing team. I thought of them pretty highly in the preseason, but they looked like one of the worst teams in the nation out of the gate, doing nothing against Oregon State, then looking bad against Air Force, although losing to the Falcons looked much worse then than now. They then proceeded to absolutely stomp UCLA, looking like they'd turned the corner, only to get shut out by UNLV. And then they went on a tear, winning their next seven games before losing to MWC champion BYU. But the thing is, very few of those wins were overly impressive, outside of shellacking of a Wyoming team that had already rolled over and died by that point in the season.

Ehhhh, Navy has a shot. Utah's probably not as impressive as that 8-4 record, and the Utes aren't very good on offense. Of course, to not be good on offense and have an 8-4 record, Utah logically has a top-tier defense statistically, and are very good against the run. Really, as with most Navy bowl games, it comes down to if the Midshipmen have the athletes to hang. And, as flawed as Utah is, I'm not so sure that they do.

My Pick: Utah
Confidence (out of 5): 2

The TFFE Top 25: After Regular Season

2007-12-02T15:39:00.000-05:00

#1 Ohio State (#2 LW)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)

Week 14 Recap

2007-12-02T15:15:00.000-05:00

Pittsburgh 13, #1 West Virginia 9
Wow. The Pitt upset doesn't surprise me too much, since the Panthers were somewhat underrated, this is a rivalry game, and this is the 2007 football season. But still. Pitt winning a shootout I might've seen. Pitt slowing down the WVU offense a bit en route to putting up 28 or so points and ekeing out a win I definitely could've seen. But, Pat White injury or not, the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS being the team to not only stop the West Virginia offense, but hold it to only 183 yards? Inexplicable. Three turnovers, no Pat White, no excuse. This is a team that should always gain yardage by the bushel, and things weren't much better on the defensive side of things. Pitt QB Pat Bostick was awful, but that only serves to even MORESO ask why West Virginia wasn't able to contain LaSean McCoy - Pitt had no passing game, and West Virginia has had an excellent run defense all year. Again, Pitt was an underrated team, but with the way this game played out, this is nothing more than a season-, era-, and perhaps program-defining choke job.
Pittsburgh: STOCK STEADY
West Virginia: STOCK DOWN

#9 Oklahoma 38, #3 Missouri 17
Meh. Not as one-sided as the score would suggest, but Missouri just got nothing going. Oklahoma didn't bring their complete "A" game, but they did enough against a Missouri team that, again, didn't do much. Chase Daniel's 23/39, 219 yard, INT day was fine, but that's about all. And that's really the outline of the game - neither team brought their top game, Missouri was fine, OU was better than fine.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Missouri: STOCK STEADY

#4 LSU 21, #25 Tennessee 14
Somewhat of a win/win game. LSU looked good - Jacob Hester ran for 120 yards, and the Tigers had 464 yards of total offense, plus they held Erik Ainge to 50% passing. And the Vols offense acquitted themselves well - while the Tigers D hasn't looked like the world-beating unit from the beginning of the year for quite some time, it's still very good, and Tennessee was able to move the ball. Really nothing that shouts out for any exceptional new insight.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee: STOCK STEADY

#5 USC 24, UCLA 7
A completely one-sided beatdown. UCLA tends to do that, so there's almost no point in trying to gain insight from this. UCLA is bad, USC might have been the best team in the nation the last couple of weeks.
USC: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK DOWN

#6 Virginia Tech 30, #22 Boston College 16
Funnily enough, this was probably VT's worst game in recent weeks. Sean Glennon was efficient (18/27, 174, 3/1), but Tech wasn't able to get too much going on the ground. And while Matt Ryan had a pretty good completion rate and yardage, his 2 picks were killers. Everything was backwards day! So, yes - VT is rightfully the ACC champion (even if they may not be the national title-level team they're perceived as), and BC is rightfully pretty good, no more, no less.
Virginia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Boston College: STOCK STEADY

#10 Arizona State 20, Arizona 17
It's a shame Arizona didn't catch a break this year, as they're an underrated team who deserved a bowl. This was a mostly pass-oriented game, as neither team got much going on the ground. ASU's not especially cooling off or especially overrated - the score's more of a result of, again, Arizona being underrated.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
Arizona: STOCK STEADY

#16 Hawaii 35, Washington 28
Colt Brennan had a vintage 2006 game - 42/50, 442, 5 TD - and his team needed it since Washington was very game. They just keep doing this, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK STEADY
Washington: STOCK UP

#20 BYU 48, San Diego State 27
SDSU's a fairly competitive team, and this was about the outclassing you'd expect. Pretty much nothing new in terms of insight to add - BYU's offense is very good, and the defense was fine if nothing too far in either direction.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
San Diego State: STOCK STEADY

Central Florida 44, Tulsa 25
Kevin Smith: 39 carries, 284 yards, 4 TD. And one of the quietest excellent seasons ever, as he's 19 yards away from the single-season yardage record. If he can make it through his senior season next year after all the carries he's had as a junior (another NCAA record), that'll be a fun ride. He's very good!
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY

Florida International 38, North Texas 19
THEY DID IT!
Florida International: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY

Oregon State 38, Oregon 31 (2 OT)
Without Dennis Dixon, Oregon has now improved to completely mediocre.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK UP

Week 14 Preview: Saturday

2007-11-29T23:22:00.000-05:00

11:00 AM
MAC Championship
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Miami of Ohio (6-6)
MAC PARITY! HOORAY! This really could go either way - MAC teams are horribly hard to predict, but I'll actually go with the underdog here. Miami of Ohio's a better team than that 6-6 record, and CMU's both scuffling a little and not really all that great.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1

12:00 PM

Army (3-8) vs. Navy (7-4)
Army's bad. Navy's not! Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but yeah, Navy's far superior.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3

C-USA Championship
Central Florida (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Even. Very very even. I still have some uneasiness about Tulsa after hemorrhaging yardage against Rice, a horrible team with an offense that can rack up yardage. And UCF's Kevin Smith remains a beast on the ground, so I'll call for him to have a big day in what could be a very very fun pointfest.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1

1:00 PM

ACC Championship
#6 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #22 Boston College (10-2)
Virginia Tech's been living up to their reputation lately; after being unimpressive for most of the year, they've been excellent on defense and perfectly fine on offense. BC remains a pretty good team, and not much more or less - they have a shot, but VT almost beat them at a time when the Hokies were playing much worse.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2

2:00 PM

Florida Atlantic (6-5) @ Troy (8-3)
For the Sun Belt title, and rightfully so - FAU's a solid team, which goes a long way in the Sun Belt, while Troy has been the class of the league. And that last clause is the key - Troy's the class of the league, and the Trojans are at home.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3

4:00 PM

SEC Championship
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #25 Tennessee (9-3)
Someone's getting exposed! LSU's defense has slipped enough where Erik Ainge could rack up some yards, so I guess the Vols could pull off a Kentucky-esque upset, but I'm pretty skeptical - LSU should be motivated, and Tennessee's fine and all, but they're not an upper tier SEC team.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3

4:05 PM

Louisiana Tech (5-6) @ Nevada (5-6)
Louisiana Tech being close to bowl eligibility just confuses and frightens me. But, well, while Louisiana Tech's fine, Nevada? Very good. Somewhat unlucky. Should win pretty easily. Offense! Should be fun.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3

4:30 PM

UCLA (6-5) @ #5 USC (9-2)
Yeah, they're not letting it happen again this year. So, I wonder who the new UCLA coach will be.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3

Oregon State (7-4) @ Oregon (8-3)
Oregon might be the worst team in I-A until evidence to the contrary. I mean, after their game against UCLA, just wow.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3

6:30 PM

#20 Brigham Young (9-2) @ San Diego State (4-7)
Yawwwwwn. BYU's easily the class of the conference, the winner of the conference always goes undefeated, SDSU's not too good, moving on...
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4

7:00 PM

California (6-5) @ Stanford (3-8)
Rivalry game, anything possible, so on and so on. Cal's sliding a little bit, but this still seems like a mismatch, as Stanford's just so far removed for...even anything approaching mediocrity.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3

North Texas (2-9) @ Florida International (0-11)
And they are every bit 0-11.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 3

7:45 PM

Pittsburgh (4-7) @ #1 West Virginia (10-1)
I want to. I really really want to. But WVU is a legitimately excellent team in a season mostly devoid of them, and they're not just backing into the title game by default or anything. That said, since this is 2007, an upset would absolutely not surprise me.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4

8:00 PM

Big 12 Championship
#3 Missouri (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU's almost like Clemson - they look very good most of the time, but can just implode. And much like Clemson games, that makes this almost worthless to predict. Missouri's had some games go worse than others, but their defense has only been mediocre at the worst times, and that offense has always been excellent throughout the season. I'll trust in Chase Daniel.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1

Arizona (5-6) @ #10 Arizona State (9-2)
More even than you might think, honestly. I'll call for the rivalry game upset to finally get Arizona back into a bowl - that offense is improving, and ASU's actually somewhat due for a loss to a team a level below them.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1

11:30 PM

Washington (4-8) @ #16 Hawaii (11-0)
I'm buying into Hawaii, even if Washington's running game can be dangerous. It's on the island, the numbers love the Warriors, why not.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3

Week 14 Preview: Weekdays

2007-11-27T22:33:00.000-05:00

THURSDAY
7:30 PM

Rutgers (7-4) @ Louisville (5-6)
Louisville's an underrated team, so this could be surprisingly even. I'll give Louisville the edge at home, since they have all the motivation in the world and could make a bowl game with a win here. Plus, y'know, that offense is still very good.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1

FRIDAY
8:00 PM

Fresno State (7-4) @ New Mexico State (4-8)
NMSU's an underrated team, so this could be surprisingly even. I'll give New Mexico State the edge at home, since, y'know, that offense is still pretty good, and Fresno's due for a bit of a correction on the year.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 13

2007-11-27T22:30:00.000-05:00

#1 West Virginia (#3 LW)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Missouri (#4)
#4 LSU (#1)
#5 USC (#9)
#6 Virginia Tech (#10)
#7 Georgia (#6)
#8 Florida (#7)
#9 Oklahoma (#11)
#10 Arizona State (#5)
#11 Kansas (#8)
#12 South Florida (#13)
#13 Wisconsin (#14)
#14 Illinois (#15)
#15 Virginia (#17)
#16 Hawaii (--)
#17 Texas (#16)
#18 Kentucky (#19)
#19 Michigan (#20)
#20 Brigham Young (#22)
#21 Clemson (#25)
#22 Boston College (#24)
#23 Arkansas (--)
#24 Penn State (#23)
#25 Tennessee (--)

WEEK 13 ONE-MINUTE RECAP

2007-11-26T22:25:00.000-05:00

Since I want to get this at least addressed for completion's sake, but my schedule is insane (4:30-4:40 AM wakeup, back home around 7:30 PM), so I'll just do my usual recap, but try to limit every game to ONE SENTENCE. What a fun exercise.

Arkansas 50, #1 LSU 48 (3 OT)
Since Arkansas apparently has legitimately fine QB play, this was unsurprising, since LSU was waiting to be toppled.

#3 West Virginia 66, Connecticut 21
I expected a big win, but to do it to this degree was an absolutely amazing statement.

#4 Missouri 36, #8 Kansas 28
Pretty good performance by Kansas, but their running game wasn't too great, and Chase Daniel was absolutely off his nuts (40/49, 361, 3 TD).

#9 USC 44, #5 Arizona State 24
USC didn't forget how to do the whole "dominance" thing, they were just taking a break.

#6 Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17
Two good running games, and neither QB was good at all, but Taylor Bennett was just much worse.

#7 Florida 45, Florida State 12
TEBOW.

#10 Virginia Tech 33, #17 Virginia 21
Very impressive, as VT was good on offense and absolutely shut down UVA on defense.

#11 Oklahoma 49, Oklahoma State 17
Allen Patrick and his 202 yards can more than replace DeMarco Murray, but I don't really trust Oklahoma all the time going forward.

UCLA 16, #12 Oregon 0
Holy fucking shit, the worst game ever.

#13 South Florida 48, Pittsburgh 37
USF was efficient in not getting much yardage, while Pitt racked up the passing yards and interceptions.

Texas A&M 38, #16 Texas 30
Texas A&M remembered they has a passing game, and Texas remembered they had a suspect passing defense.

Hawaii 39, #18 Boise State 27
The usual Hawaii story, even if this legitimizes them to the extent of "not San Jose State."

Tennessee 52, #19 Kentucky 50 (4 OT)
THROWING!

#21 Cincinnati 52, Syracuse 31
Cincinnati should probably be downgraded since Syracuse looked mediocre, not awful.

#22 BYU 17, Utah 10
Utah somehow kept this close despite being statistically annihilated.

#24 Boston College 28, Miami 14
Sigh, Miami.

#25 Clemson 23, South Carolina 21
Good Clemson showed up.

About this week.

2007-11-24T16:55:00.000-05:00

Things are fairly insane with my schedule (again, first job out of college, all this starting and pre-training, oy, even though it'll be worth it) and such, so I really have no idea when I'll be able to get all the weekly recap stuff done. Luckily there aren't any games until Thursday, so I may be able to have stuff on the current week and on the two upcoming weekday games up by Wednesday night. The Saturday preview stuff probably won't be up by Friday night, with an outside chance of Thursday night.

Week 13 Preview: Saturday

2007-11-22T23:13:00.000-05:00

12:00 PM

#10 Virginia Tech (9-2) @ #17 Virginia (9-2)
Two teams that started off slowly, but have come on hard the last few weeks to make this an interesting, interesting game. In fact, both are coming off of complete shitkickings of Miami; Virginia's was more one-sided, but VT's holding of the Canes to negative 2 rushing yards was probably the most impressive individual statistic. I'll still give UVA the edge at home, though - they've been more impressive as a whole in recent weeks, and again, they're at home. Still, this should be an ugly defensive battle that either team can win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1

#13 South Florida (8-3) @ Pittsburgh (4-6)
Pitt can be a dangerous team - they have an ever-improving frosh QB and two good running backs. Still, after what USF absolutely did to poor Louisville and Brian Brohm, this could be put away early and turn out ugly.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3

Miami (5-6) @ #24 Boston College (9-2)
God, Miami's going to go 5-7, aren't they? As overrated as BC can be at moments, if they can do one thing, it's shut down the run. And as their -2 rushing yards against Virginia Tech showed, Miami's running game can be shut down. And whoever Miami starts at QB, well, they're not good enough to win this game alone. Miami definitely has the talent to pull this off, but it requires a performance living up to said talent, and they've shown nothing near that this year.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3

Maryland (5-6) @ NC State (5-6)
Oh, who knows. The ACC picture has somewhat unmuddled itself in the past few weeks, but these two teams remain question marks in the middle of the pack. They're not GOOD, they're not BAD, and NC State has a tendency to just throw games away via interception. And hell, why not call for that to continue.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 1

1:00 PM

Buffalo (4-7) @ Kent State (3-8)
Kent State's been horribly unlucky all year - can they just get one win? Please?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2

Tulane (4-7) @ East Carolina (6-5)
ECU's scuffling and hasn't really impressed me. Plus Tulane is MATT FORTASTIC, and how can I not pick them with that adjective.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1

1:30 PM

Tennessee (8-3) @ #19 Kentucky (7-4)
The Vols pass defense is pretty bad, so yeah, Kentucky can exploit it all day and all night. Then again, Kentucky's defense is no great shakes either. I haven't been all that impressed with Tennessee, and again, they have a weakness Kentucky can exploit, so I'll give the nod to the 'Cats.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1

2:00 PM

Utah (8-3) @ #23 BYU (8-2)
BYU's just been bitchslapping the conference, and the MWC champ seems to always finish undefeated in the conference on the year. Utah has a definite shot, and seem to be the #2 team in the MWC, but again, BYU's far and away the favorite.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3

UTEP (4-7) @ Central Florida (8-3)
UTEP's just absolutely crumbling, and UCF's one of the elite teams in the conference. Kevin Smith could have an insane day, but either way, this'll be lopsided.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4

SMU (1-10) @ Memphis (6-5)
Same thing as above - SMU's just dead in the water. Memphis'll put up a lot of points, they'll win at home, yep.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3

Miami of Ohio (6-5) @ Ohio (5-6)
Pardon me while I shrug and yawn. Miami seems to be the better team, even if it's hard to recommend anyone that participated in their game vs. Akron. But still, I'll choose the home team in the name of MAC parity and general silliness.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1

Temple (4-7) @ Western Michigan (4-7)
WMU beating Iowa shows they at least have a pulse after being possibly the most disappointing team in the country. So I'll give them the nod at home.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1

Wake Forest (7-4) @ Vanderbilt (5-6)
Yawn, all this mediocrity. Vandy's looked much better of late, so I'll give a competitive SEC team the edge at home over a pretty good is blase Wake team.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1

3:00 PM

Arkansas State (5-6) @ Southern Miss (6-5)
Bleh. Arkansas State was dead in the water after a hot start until they had a big day against North Texas, but, well, it's North Texas. USM's no great shakes this year, but Arkansas State hasn't shown me much in months.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2

Tulsa (8-3) @ Rice (3-8)
Rice has gotten better, but Tulsa's still the absolute beast of the C-USA, and since a win clinches their division of C-USA, they'll be motivated here too. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4

3:30 PM

Connecticut (9-2) @ #3 West Virginia (9-1)
Oh, this one'll make me sad. UConn's one chance is that they're a team that wins on turnovers, and as both the USF game and late in the Cincy game showed, WVU can fumble it over quite easily. But still, this is at West Virginia, and UConn hasn't shown much on the road. WVU shuts down the run, and UConn is essentially useless without their running game. And the Mountaineers are just a much better team. Sigh.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 3

#6 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4)
GT looked good against UNC, but UGA's been looking better against better teams. There's the old axiom that anything can happen in a rivalry game, but that's the only reason this shouldn't be a completely one-sided affair.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3

Oklahoma State (6-5) @ #11 Oklahoma (9-2)
Sam Bradford's in, so this one got interesting. OK State doesn't have much of a defense, and OU's can be hit or miss. As much as I'd like to pick Oklahoma State, and I'd really like to, I just can't see it with Bradford in, since it's not like he has a hand injury that will affect his mechanics or anything. Plus while losing DeMarco Murray hurts, the Sooners have a bunch of talented running backs. OU should win what could very well be a fun little shootout.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2

#12 Oregon (8-2) @ UCLA (5-5)
Oh jeez. Despite having the inferior Leaf brother at quarterback, Oregon may actually be better off, as UCLA's essentially starting a wide receiver at the position. I'll give Oregon the edge since I assume they've re-worked their offense to fit Leaf, but UCLA can give them fits if they feel like it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1

Duke (1-10) @ North Carolina (3-8)
UNC's very underrated - if their QBs threw less interceptions, they could easily have a better record. Which...seems like an obvious thing to say. But still, it's better than not being able to move the ball at all or anything. As I said with the Notre Dame game, Duke's given up, although this being a rivalry game (and Duke's best shot at a second win) should have them fired up. Still, I'll give the edge to the better team, even though Duke has a shot if they feel like it.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2

Kansas State (5-6) @ Fresno State (6-4)
KSU's in the absolute doldrums, but staring bowl-eligibility in the face should hopefully motivate them. Plus Fresno's not all that good.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2

Texas Southern @ Houston (7-4)
Come on now.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5

Utah State (1-10) @ Idaho (1-10)
After some sophisticated computer analysis, I have determined that both teams are very bad. Idaho is at home and seems less worse.
My Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1

Notre Dame (2-9) @ Stanford (3-7)
Oh jeez. Notre Dame's probably the better team, honestly. Which...says a lot about Stanford. But it's at Stanford. Oh jeez. I'll just go with the Irish, who knows.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1

4:00 PM

Ball State (6-5) @ Northern Illinois (2-9)
NIU's gotten a bit better recently, but are still very bad. Ball State's one of the better MAC teams, which...means little with the conference's parity, but I'll still give it to the Cards.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2

Nevada (5-5) @ San Jose State (4-7)
Could be a neat little game, especially with it being at SJSU, as both teams have big-offense ability when they feel like it. Nevada's been the better team, but either one has a chance if this devolves into a shootout.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2

Western Kentucky @ North Texas (1-9)
WKU's been competitive in their I-A games, UNT less so.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Confidence: 1

4:30 PM

UAB (2-9) @ Marshall (2-9)
Marshall's actually stepped things up to look a lot better lately, plus they've been the better team of the two throughout the year. Really though, yawn.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2

5:00 PM

#7 Florida (8-3) vs. Florida State (7-4)
FSU hasn't been all that impressive of late - I mean, they gave up 340 yards to Maryland, bleh. I mean, the Seminoles are fine and all, but I rate them fairly low in Tebow stoppability. If Tebow gets hurt, sure, but they only have a 15% or so chance otherwise.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3

5:30 PM

UNLV (2-9) @ New Mexico (7-4)
Bleh. New Mexico's a wholly fine team that really doesn't impress at anything, UNLV could be just the same if they had gotten a few more breaks during the season. I'll call for UNLV to catch one here and even things out a tad.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1

7:00 PM

#25 Clemson (8-3) vs. South Carolina (6-5)
Statistical analysis is a folly in a Clemson game. I mean, come on, we know the implosion is on, don't we?
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2

Florida Atlantic (5-5) @ Florida International (0-10)
Rivalry game, anything can happen and such, but FIU's just rotten, and FAU's been a competitive team almost all year. Hell, they beat Minnesota, that counts for...a little.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3

Louisiana-Monroe (5-6) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (3-8)
ULM was the better team even before they beat Alabama, and with a chance at a bowl AND this being a rivalry game, I assume the Warhawks will be motivated to absolutely dominate, which they easily can.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2

Washington State (4-7) @ Washington (4-7)
Intriguing, especially after last week, where Wazzou got annihilated by Oregon State, and Washington went batshit insane on the ground. Still, both teams should bring their A game, and I'll go with the better team on the year.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1

7:15 PM

#21 Cincinnati (8-3) @ Syracuse (2-9)
I feel obligated to write a sentence for this preview.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5

8:00 PM

#4 Missouri (10-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-0)
...really? This is such a hard one to pick, especially since Kansas's annihilation of Iowa State impressed me. Both offenses are obviously great, but the question mark is Kansas's defense - we know Missouri's is fine, but nothing special, and Kansas's has been great, but not against many high-powered offenses. Then again, Missouri's had much worse stats against mostly the same level of guys. And really, the rivalry game axiom makes this even more of a pick 'em. The statistical edge screams Kansas Kansas Kansas, but inertia's a hard thing to overcome, and I'll go with the pick I made a few weeks ago.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1

Alabama (6-5) vs. Auburn (7-4)
Alabama's not a bad team, they just had a bad case of turnoveritis against LA-Monroe. Auburn's a very vulnerable team with Brandon Cox at the helm, and I think the Tide just might want some redemption here.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1

TCU (6-5) @ San Diego State (4-6)
TCU seems to have turned the ship around. This'll probably be one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3

Week 13 Preview: Weekdays

2007-11-18T12:40:00.000-05:00

TUESDAY
7:00 PM

Middle Tennessee State (5-6) @ Troy (7-3)
MTSU's been scuffling a bit lately in conference play after a hot start - not that it matters against Troy, especially on the road. The Trojans are the class of the conference.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence (out of 5): 3

THURSDAY
8:00 PM

#9 USC (8-2) @ #5 Arizona State (9-1)
Intriguing - SC's not dead yet. Really, any Pac 10 game between the top few teams (which, with Dixon out and Cal falling from grace, means...these two) is essentially a pick 'em. The kneejerk is to say USC's got the advantage on defense, but ASU's is no slouch; plus I have much more faith in Arizona State's offense to show up than USC's, and the Sun Devils have always been better at home in recent years. The Sun Devils should be the clear favorite, though USC obviously has a chance.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2

FRIDAY
11:00 AM

Central Michigan (6-5) @ Akron (4-7)
Oh, the MAC. Central lost to Eastern Michigan, which is likely a worse team than Akron, so a win by the Zips is thoroughly possible, especially at home in, again, the parity-filled MAC. Still, Akron showed less than nothing in losing to Miami of Ohio last week, so this is a similar situation to the CMU/EMU game - CMU's vulnerable, but there's no real reason to recommend Akron. Of course, Central lost that game, but still, I'm going with the Chippewas.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1

12:00 PM

Nebraska (5-6) @ Colorado (5-6)
Nebraska's annihilation of Kansas State shows me they haven't given up yet, even if they probably should. At the very least, they should be extremely motivated to at least make it to .500, so I'll give all that talent a shot to beat a pretty mediocre team.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 2

12:30 PM

Mississippi (3-8) @ Mississippi State (6-5)
After Ole Miss's great offensive performance against LSU, I don't know. MSU's been the better team all year, and they had an offensive breakthrough of their own last week, so I'll give the Bulldogs the edge; still, they should allow a lot of points and yards in the process.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2

2:00 PM

Wyoming (5-6) @ Colorado State (2-9)
Wyoming's imploding, but CSU is just outright bad. I'll still give the Rams the nod at home, though - this may be it for Sonny Lubick, the best coach in program history, so they have some extra motivation. Plus, at this point, these two teams are about even.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1

2:30 PM

Arkansas (7-2) @ #1 LSU (10-1)
LSU's an elite run defense at home, and McFadden was mostly dormant against Mississippi State. McFadden could always take over a game, but against this defense, on the road, after Arkansas allowed that many yards to Mississippi State, this could easily be a walk for the Tigers.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2

Toledo (5-6) @ Bowling Green (7-4)
BGSU's probably the best team in the MAC. Which gives them a 51% chance of winning here. Okay, okay, 52%.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1

3:30 PM

#16 Texas (9-2) @ Texas A&M (6-5)
Oh why the hell not. A&M's at home in a rivalry game with an outgoing coach, the Aggies seem to have rediscovered their pass/run balance, and Texas has that shaky secondary.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1

9:00 PM

#18 Boise State (10-1) @ Hawaii (10-0)
Hawaii could easily pull this out at home. They seem to have a knack for doing just enough. Still, they've done just enough against teams like San Jose State and Utah State, which Boise's absolutely annihilated. This is Hawaii's first big test of the year, and unlike, say, Kansas, they've done nothing to prove they can handle it.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 12

2007-11-18T11:32:00.000-05:00

#1 LSU (10-1, #1 LW): The best of a very flawed bunch, as LSU's fallen from their undisputed #1 status to look very, very disputed. I mean, come on, Ole Miss? I went back and forth, but I eventually kept LSU on top ahead of...

#2 Ohio State (11-1, #4): ...yes, these guys. I seem to be higher on the Big Ten than, well, just about anyone, but I see OSU's schedule as absolutely fine, and they're the only team here that's absolutely dominated in all of their wins.

#3 West Virginia (9-1, #3): So close to elite status. Their case of fumblitis at a crucial time in the Cincy game worried me, especially in light of their 6-turnover loss to USF earlier this year. Still, this is a team that can beat anyone, especially with how they've shut down the running game.

#4 Missouri (10-1, #5): I still have questions about the defense, as it sort of comes and goes. Still, nobody's been able to stop Chase Daniel, and this is a very good team, and in a year like this, very good gets you #4.

#5 Arizona State (9-1, #7): Suddenly the best team in the Pac 10 by default. They're very good!

#6 Georgia (9-2, #8): Matt Stafford's still somewhat shaky, but with that running game and defense, he can afford to be. Much like Missouri, a very good if not great team, but again, that gets you #6.

#7 Florida (8-3, #10): Tim Tebow is so awesome, that people made Chuck Norris-like exaggerations about him, and he slapped them for not being funny, like, two years ago.

#8 Kansas (11-0, #14): Yeah, I'm buying in. There's nothing here to suggest they're not on the level of, say, Missouri, even if they might not actually win.

#9 USC (8-2, #13): Still lurking.

#10 Virginia Tech (9-2, #16): A team that suddenly decided to match their reputation, they've come through with a string of excellent performances on defense and good enough performances on offense.

#11 Oklahoma (9-2, #6): Told you they were vulnerable! I haven't seen anything on Bradford or Murray missing extended periods of time, so this seems about right for a team with McFadden Syndrome: the best in the country some of the time, and horribly disappointing at others.

#12 Oregon (8-2, #2): A bit of a precipitous drop for the Ducks, but, well, did you see them with Brady Leaf in the game? Oh jesus. If they tailor the schemes to better fit him and it looks good and all, I'll bump them back up accordingly, but I'm very pessimistic at the moment.

#13 South Florida (8-3, #18): Wow. They absolutely annihilated Brian Brohm, so they can shut down pretty much any QB in the nation. Which, of course, means they can beat any team in the nation.

#14 Wisconsin (9-3, #9): Even writing off playing that close to Minnesota - MINNESOTA! - as a one time thing, this is the least I can penalize the Badgers.

#15 Illinois (9-3, #17): God help us all, Juice Williams looks like a, at the very least, decent passing quarterback.

#16 Texas (9-2, #15): Flawed, talented, suspect defense, nothing much to say with them on a bye week.

#17 Virginia (9-2, #20): See above, replace "defense" with offense, more or less.

#18 Boise State (10-1, #23): Kansas-lite, in that they've looked very good in beating absolutely nobody. Plus that Washington loss because somewhat less inexplicable after this week.

#19 Kentucky (7-4, #21): Still the best of the second-tier SEC teams.

#20 Michigan (8-4, #12): I mean, they have the excuse of injury, but still. Putting them here is kind of splitting the difference - I assume Henne and Hart will be near 100% by the bowl game, so I didn't want to drop them too far, but they really don't deserve to stay anywhere close to steady after laying THAT big of an egg.

#21 Cincinnati (9-2, #22): Playing WVU tight legitimized them as an above-average team, even if a bit inflated thanks to all those takeaways.

#22 BYU (8-2, #25): SOLIDLY ABOVE-AVERAGE MID-MAJOR TEAM! Nothing more, nothing less.

#23 Penn State (8-4, #11): Oh, Anthony Morelli. Pardon while I sigh and shake my head. Or is that shake my head and sigh?

#24 Boston College (9-2, --): Yawn. A perfectly fine team nudged back into the top 25 by attrition.

#25 Clemson (8-3, #19): Inconsistent, frustrating, inexplicable at times, still better than Hawaii.

Week 12 Recap

2007-11-18T00:26:00.000-05:00

Why yes, I am proud of myself for calling the Oregon and Oklahoma upsets. :).

#1 LSU 41, Mississippi 24
On the negative side, Ole Miss outgained LSU 478-415. On the plus side, nobody for Ole Miss was really all that productive - QB Brent Schaeffer only completed 45% of his passes, and also led the team in rushing with only 90 yards. As for LSU, well, Matt Flynn was efficient (68%), and the Tigers went with their usual RB-by-committee approach. I'll knock LSU down a bit, since they really shouldn't be an undisputed #1 with how they've been skating by at points. And good for Ole Miss's offense for showing some signs of life.
LSU: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi: STOCK UP

Arizona 34, #2 Oregon 24
Not all that shocking - heck, I predicted it. And it wasn't really an AWFUL performance by Oregon; they held Arizona to only 56 yards rushing, gained 463 yards of their own, and the Wildcats needed a pick six and a return TD to win it. And Jonathan Stewart had 131 yards rushing. Still, Oregon gets knocked down for the obvious reason - the loss of QB Dennis Dixon for the year. Dixon wasn't quite as elite as his press would make you think, but he was a hell of a lot better than Brady Leaf, who only completed 48% for 163 and 2 picks in relief. Sad to see things take this turn for the Ducks. As for Arizona, I'll keep them steady - I've been bumping them up recently, and this wasn't the type of overwhelming performance that makes me like them any further. They're just a solid team.
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK DOWN

#3 West Virginia 28, #22 Cincinnati 23
Cincy got their 3 turnovers, but gave up 2, so it was essentially a wash, like most of the game. Pat White was a bit of a conundrum here - he had 139 yards on 68% passing, and had 155 and 2 TD on the ground, but he also threw a pick and fumbled it twice. Cincy's Ben Mauk essentially was the entire offense, with 323 and 2 TD on 56% passing, but WVU just ran it and ran it and ran it. And the Mountaineers once again shut down the run. Really a legitimizing game for Mauk and to an extent Cincy than anything else - WVU's still an elite team.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati: STOCK UP

#4 Ohio State 14, #12 Michigan 3
Just depressing. Michigan did nothing. Less than nothing. Mario Manningham had a bunch of crucial drops. Mike Hart, who was probably the most dependable, consistent back during his career than anyone else in the nation, also probably had the worst game of his career - 18 carries for only 41 yards. And Chad Henne was pretty awful while playing injured too - only 71 yards on 32.4% passing. OSU QB Todd Boeckman was only mediocre, but that didn't matter - RB Chris Wells gashed the Wolverines again, this year for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just a depressing end to see for a Michigan era - the touted seniors go 0-4 against OSU, go out on probably the worst performances of their respective careers, and Lloyd Carr proves all the criticisms about him right and then some. They better win that bowl game.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Michigan: STOCK DOWN

#5 Missouri 49, Kansas State 32
A pretty even game, actually - the difference for Mizzou was mostly thanks to return TDs off a kickoff and a blocked punt. Still, the KSU defense did little to stop Chase Daniel, who completed 68% for 284 and 4 touchdowns. Of course, Mizzou's own defense was overly great, as KSU's Josh Freeman's line was only slightly inferior - 63%, 255 yards, and a 2/1 ratio. And the Wildcats had the better running game, as James Johnson gained 174 and a TD. Missouri's status reminds me a lot of Oregon; they're obviously one of the top teams in their conference, but any team that's solid or better could easily take them down.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Kansas State: STOCK STEADY

Texas Tech 34, #6 Oklahoma 27
Sam Bradford's injury early was obviously the difference, especially since OU made it so close in the end. Texas Tech, as usual, passed for a bunch of yards, and exploited that vulnerable OU D. Oklahoma wasn't a very elite team, so this upset is pretty unsurprising, but I'm still knocking the Sooners down a bit thanks to injury questions about Bradford and stud RB DeMarco Murray, who was carried off late after slipping and falling during the game's final onside kick.
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN

#8 Georgia 24, #21 Kentucky 13
A bit of an odd game, as Georgia only outgained Kentucky by 1 yard, didn't stop Andre' Woodson much at all (57%, 270, 1/1 ratio), and gave up 4 turnovers to Kentucky's 1, but still won fairly easily. The Bulldogs did shut down the running game though, holding UK to only 23 on the ground. Matt Stafford wasn't very good (55%, 100, 2 INT), but, as usual, the running game bailed him out, led by Knowshon Moreno's 134 yards. This game doesn't mean much as far as the perception of either team - they both performed roughly how you'd expect.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK STEADY

#9 Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 34
Well, holy shit. Badgers RB Zach Brown had 250 and 2 yards, but even if QB Tyler Donovan threw only 13 passes, completing less than 50% (6) is pretty horrible against this defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota QB Adam Weber was essentially the entire offense - he had 352 and a 3/2 ratio throwing, and accounting for 87 of the Gophers' 149 rushing yards. Uh...just really inexplicable. Wisconsin gets an obvious, obvious downgrade for allowing what's been such a horrible team to be so competitive.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota: STOCK UP

#10 Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 20
Tebow watch: 25/35 (71.4%), 338 yards, 3/1 ratio, 11 rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Seriously, he's like in NCAA Football 2004 when you'd get the top mobile QB in the nation and just run the entire offense through him. PRESS R2 AND GO!
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida Atlantic: STOCK STEADY

Michigan State 35, #11 Penn State 31
MORELLI'D! 46%, 190 yards, TD. Not quite the obvious implosion he usually had, but still a very bad game. The PSU run D held (147 yards allowed), but MSU QB Brian Hoyer decided to just be absolutely great: 16/21 (76%), 256 yards, and a 4/2 ratio. Well then. Obviously, Penn State gets a knock down and Michigan State gets nudged up with a legitimate QB.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN

#14 Kansas 45, Iowa State 7
Wow. Iowa State's a better team than their record, but the Jayhawks absolutely whipped ISU to the point where the Cyclones matched the perception of them. No particular KU running back did that much, but Todd Reesing completed an insane 81% for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. Just...wow. Kansas is definitely a legitimate upper-tier team, and I actually give them a chance against pretty much anyone.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK STEADY

#16 Virginia Tech 44, Miami 14
A similarly impressive win to that of Kansas. Miami's always gotten by on their running game and defense, and VT both put up 44 points and held Miami running backs to 14 yards. FOURTEEN. Miami QB Kyle Wright was the leading rusher with NINE. Just amazing.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN

#17 Illinois 41, Northwestern 22
Illinois ran for 330 yards, shock. While NW's defense is no great shakes, Juice Williams had another very good game passing - 217 yards on 65% passing, if only for a 1/1 ratio. Yep, they're legit.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Northwestern: STOCK STEADY

#18 South Florida 55, Louisville 17
Wow. I thought Louisville's D had turned the corner, but USF's Matt Grothe had 195 yards and a 2/1 ratio on 74% passing, and added 67 and a TD rushing. Oh, and running back Mike Ford added another 141 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm had his worst game in recently memory, if ever, completing only 48.6% for 211 and a 1/3 ratio. Just awful awful numbers, and an amazing, amazing performance by this USF pass defense. Just an absolutely huge statement game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

Boston College 20, #19 Clemson 17
BC's go-ahead TD to a wide open receiver, dropping their own go-ahead TD, just missing the tying FG - a loss just so perfectly...Clemson. Matt Ryan actually completed 66% en route to 315 and a 1/1 ratio, and God help us if that late TD supposedly affirms that he is HEISMANESQUE. As for the Clemson offense, Cullen Harper had a good game, but the running backs had a pretty disappointing night. Just really a perfect capsule of the season and the programs as a whole - BC was perfectly above-average and absolutely nothing else, while Clemson was just frustrating as hell in a loss.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Clemson: STOCK DOWN

#23 Boise State 58, Idaho 14
Seems about right. Just a complete blowout. Yep.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Idaho: STOCK STEADY

Washington 37, #24 California 23
The fuck? Though I guess that happens when you give up 335 rushing yards. Washington RB Louis Ranking had 224 and a TD, and Brandon Johnson added 120 and a TD more. While Cal QB Nate Longshore had an excellent game (71%, 236, 3/1 ratio), I think maybe, just maybe, Cal's run D is a liability.
Washington: STOCK UP
California: STOCK DOWN

#25 BYU 35, Wyoming 10
Wyoming's just absolutely imploding. They had only 9 yards rushing against an offense-based team. BYU's easily the best team in the conference, to the point where this says nothing about them.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN

Miami of Ohio 7, Akron 0
In my preview, I said this should be entertaining. Even if it kind of was in a trainwreck sort of way, I apologize immensely.
Miami of Ohio: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK DOWN

Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14
This was all due to 4 Tide turnovers, but karma's a bitch, innit? KINSMON LANCASTER! Man, this amuses me to no end. Is Saban fired yet?
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK UP
Alabama: STOCK DOWN

Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31
I have no idea whose passing defense is worse. On the one hand, Arkansas allowed MSU QB Wesley Carroll to have 421 yards on 57% passing, even if he only had a 4/4 ratio, which is...fairly amusing. On the other hand, MSU allowed CASEY DICK, yes CASEY DICK, to have a line of...sit down...14 of 17, 199 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I can now take neither of these teams seriously. Well, not that I really did before.
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi State: STOCK DOWN

Arkansas State 31, North Texas 27
Arkansas State actually had an offense here, as they'd looked horrible in Sun Belt play after playing very well against Texas and Tennessee out of conference. I'll give them a nudge up, although who knows if it's a one-time thing or the beginning of a resurgence.
Arkansas State: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY

Tulsa 49, Army 39
Tulsa giving up more points and yardage to Army than Houston is...fairly inexplicable. Stock down just for that, and I'll give Army a nudge for apparently having an offense?
Tulsa: STOCK DOWN
Army: STOCK UP

Central Florida 49, SMU 20
Kevin Smith watch: 22 carries, 179 yards, 3 TD, fumble.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
SMU: STOCK STEADY

Connecticut 30, Syracuse 7
CONNECTICUT OUTGAINS A BIG EAST OPPONENT! While I like Tyler Lorenzen as a perfectly fine caretaker on a running-oriented team, Cuse is so bad they made him look like a legitimate very good QB - 16/24, 213, and a TD.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY

Notre Dame 28, Duke 7
UND looked good here, so...good for them? Tom Zbikowski being put in as an option QB late in the game amused me, though.
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Duke: STOCK DOWN

Hawaii 28, Nevada 26
Their best win to date. Easily. I'll give them a bit of credit for it, but jeez, they just keep winning close, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK UP
Nevada: STOCK STEADY

Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19
And the Iowa offense cannot, in fact, be that great, even against a MAC defense. Western Michigan finally lived up to their preseason standards, too bad they waited until 3-7 to do so.
Western Michigan: STOCK UP
Iowa: STOCK DOWN

Utah State 35, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State continues emulating Hawaii in every way except for the wins. Pardon me while I shrug. Utah State gets a bump up for winning...somehow.
Utah State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK STEADY

Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
The yardage was about even, but Wazzou QB Alex Brink's line shows the difference in the game: 21/45 (27%), 314 yards, 6 INT. Well done, Alex Brink. Well done.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Washington State: STOCK DOWN

Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 16
Ew. One of those lose-lose games. Ray Rice had 110 and a TD, but he was a shining light in a black hole, as Mike Teel had a horrible 40% completion rate for 113 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Things for Pitt starter Pat Bostick weren't much better before he was pulled, as he had 41% for 77 and a 1/1 ratio. Oh, and Pitt only had 73 yards on the ground. Blech.
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN

Tulane 45, Rice 31
Matt Forte watch: 39 carries, 195 yards, 5 TD. I say he takes this week over Kevin Smith.
Tulane: STOCK STEADY
Rice: STOCK STEADY

Week 12 Preview: Saturday

2007-11-16T12:10:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the delay, things are horribly busy.

12:00 PM

#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1

Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5

Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2

Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5

Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3

Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1

North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1

Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1

Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1

12:30 PM

#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3

#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2

1:00 PM

Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1

2:00 PM

Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5

#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3

San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2

Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2

Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4

Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4

Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1

2:30 PM

Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4

Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1

3:00 PM

Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4

Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1

3:30 PM

#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4

#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5

#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2

Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3

Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2

#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4

Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4

Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2

Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3

UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3

Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3

4:00 PM

NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1

5:30 PM

New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3

6:30 PM

Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1

7:00 PM

Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1

Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2

San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1

7:30 PM

Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2

UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4

7:45 PM

#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2

Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1

8:00 PM

#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1

Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1

Week 12 Preview: Weekdays

2007-11-11T11:56:00.000-05:00

TUESDAY
7:30 PM

Toledo (5-5) @ Ball State (5-5)
Toledo's somewhat quietly rebounded very well in conference play from what was an awful start to the year. Ball State's somewhat erratic - they've deserved their losses, but when they play well, they may be the best team in the MAC. This is probably the most interesting of the weekday MAC matchups, and while Toledo has the momentum (and tons of it), I'll go with the better team at home.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1

WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM

Akron (4-6) @ Miami of Ohio (5-5)
Miami's the better team, but of course, this is a rivalry game in the MAC - either team can win. Should be entertaining, at any rate.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1

THURSDAY
7:00 PM

North Texas (1-8) @ Arkansas State (4-6)
Arkansas State's pretty much collapsed in conference play after very good showings against a tough non-conference schedule. Damned if I can figure it out. I'll pick the Mean Green, since, well, they can put up tons of yardage and points, neither of which I'm sure ASU can do anymore.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1

9:00 PM

#2 Oregon (8-1) @ Arizona (4-6)
Arizona's underrated - the Wildcats have had some unlucky breaks, and now that their new offense seems to be taking, they're a dangerous, dangerous team. And honestly, they have a shot - Oregon hasn't been dominant in the Pac 10, they've just played even with teams like USC and Arizona State and gotten the breaks to win. Actually, what the hell; given this year, and given this being the #2 team on Thursday night on the road, it's almost gotta happen.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1

FRIDAY
7:00 PM

Eastern Michigan (3-8) @ Central Michigan (6-4)
The upset potential is there - the MAC is full of parity, it's a rivalry game, and CMU's been pretty lucky throughout the year. Plus Central's already clinched their division of the MAC, so there could be some coasting or a letdown. Still, I really can't pick Eastern - while the Eagles aren't horrible, they're still a lower-level MAC team without much to recommend.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1

11:00 PM

Hawaii (9-0) @ Nevada (5-4)
Hawaii's always vulnerable, and seems to be a better team at home. This one's in Nevada, and the Wolf Pack are probably the best team in the WAC outside of the big town (Boise and Hawaii). I'M PULLING THE TRIGGER!
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 1

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 11

2007-11-11T11:33:00.000-05:00

#1 LSU (9-1, #2 LW)
#2 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#3 West Virginia (8-1, #4)
#4 Ohio State (10-1, #1)
#5 Missouri (9-1, #6)
#6 Oklahoma (9-1, #5)
#7 Arizona State (9-1, #7)
#8 Georgia (8-2, #12)
#9 Wisconsin (8-3, #13)
#10 Florida (7-3, #9)
#11 Penn State (8-3, #11)
#12 Michigan (8-3, #8)
#13 USC (8-2, #10)
#14 Kansas (10-0, #16)
#15 Texas (9-2, #17)
#16 Virginia Tech (8-2, #19)
#17 Illinois (8-2, #23)
#18 South Florida (7-3, #15)
#19 Clemson (8-2, #25)
#20 Virginia (9-2, --)
#21 Kentucky (7-3, #21)
#22 Cincinnati (8-2, --)
#23 Boise State (9-1, --)
#24 California (6-4, #14)
#25 BYU (7-2, --)

NOTES!
OSU losing wasn't the big deal - the lack of run defense was. I was on the fence about having them at #3 or #4, but West Virginia has both an ability to shut down the run and, obviously, that great offense, so I gave the Mountaineers the edge.

OU's (lack of) defensive performance against Baylor made it close between them and Missouri - I'd take the Tigers offense, albeit barely, so I moved them ahead of the Sooners.

Georgia's very good! Vulnerable, but very good, and this season, that's enough for #8.

Kansas moves up as they legitimize themselves further.

USF didn't do anything wrong - VT just had their second impressive win in a row, and Illinois, well, you know.

I still don't trust Clemson, but hey, they're playing well.

Cincinnati may be a bit of a kneejerk giving their two losses are to Louisville and Pitt - still, there's a lack of quality teams with quality wins (Tennessee over Arkansas being a case of "bad beating worse", as an example), and while UConn had been lucky all year, shutting them down so thoroughly impressed me.

I'm still not 100% sold on Boise, since they've had some games in the WAC that should probably be closer than they should, but still, they're very good.

BYU beats out Hawaii for #25 - I went with the team that has a semblance of a defense.

Week 11 Recap

2007-11-11T00:48:00.000-05:00

#23 Illinois 28, #1 Ohio State 21
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN

#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY

#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP

#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY

#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP

#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY

#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN

#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY

#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN

#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY

#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN

#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY

#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY

#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY

Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN

#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY

Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN

#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP

Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN

#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY

Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY

Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN

Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY

Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY

Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY

Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN

Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN

Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN

Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN

Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY

Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY

Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN

Week 11 Preview: Saturday

2007-11-08T00:29:00.000-05:00

12:00 PM

#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3

#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4

#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5

Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1

Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1

Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3

Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1

North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1

12:30 PM

Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3

#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3

Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1

Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1

Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3

1:00 PM

Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2

2:00 PM

#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1

2:30 PM

Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1

3:00 PM

Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5

Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3

Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1

Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1

3:30 PM

#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4

#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3

#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1

Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1

Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2

#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1

Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1

Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2

4:00 PM

Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2

Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3

Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4

New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1

4:30 PM

East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2

Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1

5:00 PM

Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3

Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4

6:30 PM

Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5

Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2

7:00 PM

UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2

7:15 PM

Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1

7:30 PM

Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4

7:45 PM

#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2

8:00 PM

Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5

#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2

#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2

#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2

10:15 PM

Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2

11:00 PM

Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2

San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2

Week 11 Preview: Tuesday-Friday

2007-11-06T00:15:00.000-05:00

TUESDAY
7:30 PM

Central Michigan (5-4) @ Western Michigan (3-6)
CMU seems to be the top team in the MAC, which with their horrible defense, horrible out of conference showing, and loss to North Dakota State, speaks to the MAC's low status this year. Western Michigan's just been horribly disappointing, and believe it or not, a win here makes sense for the Broncos - they're at home in a rivalry game with their backs against the wall, and a WMU win would be MAC paritytastic.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 1

WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM

Ohio (5-5) @ Akron (3-6)
Meh. Ohio's actually a perfectly fine team, but despite beating Bowling Green and dominating Temple, they're really not much to get excited about. However, Akron's shown less than nothing to date.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1

THURSDAY
7:30 PM

Louisville (5-4) @ #4 West Virginia (7-1)
Intriguing. Louisville has a chance if this degenerates into a shootout, but WVU has a statistically excellent defense. Of course, with the possible exception of Matt Grothe, WVU hasn't faced anyone in Brian Brohm's league. Of course, all of that's likely moot, since WVU will put up 40 or so on that Louisville D.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2

9:00 PM

TCU (5-4) @ Brigham Young (6-2)
This gained intrigue after TCU's complete dominance of New Mexico, just completely shutting down the Lobo offense. Still, one game does not a trend make, and since TCU mostly shut down the run and BYU is a passing team, I'll give the Cougars the edge.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2

FRIDAY
7:30 PM

Bowling Green (5-4) @ Eastern Michigan (3-7)
A lot like Ohio/Akron. BGSU's a good team that there's really no excitement about, especially since beating Minnesota means nothing this year. But, again, EMU's shown less than nothing to date.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2

8:00 PM

Rutgers (5-4) @ Army (3-6)
Funny after last year and this preseason, but if anything, Rutgers is probably underrated at the moment. Ray Rice is a top 3 back nationally, and may actually be better week-in week-out than McFadden. He'll get to show that here.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 10

2007-11-04T23:41:00.000-05:00

#1 Ohio State (10-0, #1 LW)
#2 LSU (8-1, #2)
#3 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#4 West Virginia (7-1, #4)
#5 Oklahoma (8-1, #5)
#6 Missouri (8-1, #6)
#7 Arizona State (8-1, #7)
#8 Michigan (8-2, #8)
#9 Florida (6-3, #9)
#10 USC (7-2, #10)
#11 Penn State (7-3, #13)
#12 Georgia (7-2, #19)
#13 Wisconsin (7-3, #12)
#14 California (6-3, #14)
#15 South Florida (6-3, #15)
#16 Kansas (9-0, #21)
#17 Texas (8-2, #17)
#18 Boston College (8-1, #16)
#19 Virginia Tech (7-2, #24)
#20 Alabama (6-3, #18)
#21 Kentucky (6-3, #20)
#22 Connecticut (8-1, #25)
#23 Illinois (7-2, #22)
#24 Auburn (7-3, #23)
#25 Clemson (7-2, --)

NOTES!
Oregon and WVU are very close - Oregon's had the tougher schedule and really didn't do anything to lose their spot, so I kept them ahead.

Ditto OU and Mizzou.

Michigan didn't look that impressive, so I didn't bump them up over ASU, and in fact, 8-10 are packed extremely close together.

I'm buying into the Georgia running game, so, yeah, I'm on the bandwagon.

Yeah, USF's not turning it over eight times again.

Clemson beat out Boise for the last spot. Clemson's easily the more talented team, and I think beats Boise most of the time, but I'm always tenuous with the Tigers - they just have those bouts where they completely implode.

Week 10 Recap

2007-11-04T23:18:00.000-05:00

#1 Ohio State 38, #12 Wisconsin 17
This was close through three quarters, but wow did the Buckeyes ever put it away late. Even if P.J. Hill was active for the Badgers, I'm not so sure that they would've run for more than 12 yards, their total here. In contrast, Wisconsin's suspect run D kept up things on that end, giving up 169 yards and 3 TDs to OSU's Chris Wells. An impressive win by the Buckeyes all in all, but there's really not much to say here - OSU just handily beat a pretty good team, and that defense keeps shutting down the run. Which, hoo boy, doesn't bode well for Illinois next week.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Wisconsin: STOCK STEADY

#2 LSU 41, #18 Alabama 34
Despite the close score, this was a pretty one-sided affair for LSU, as Matt Flynn's 3 picks were the only thing that kept the Tide in the game. Alabama was horrible on offense - only 20 yards rushing, and while John Parker Wilson had 234 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio, it was on a pretty awful 14 of 40 passing. I'll give them a mulligan to an extent since this is the LSU defense and all, but they're on notice.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK STEADY

#3 Oregon 35, #7 Arizona State 23
Oregon's somewhat cooled off from their blistering start, which I suppose makes sense since it's coinciding with them beating actual legitimate teams. And really, Arizona State did legitimize themselves in losing, gaining 489 yards, and Rudy Carpenter had quite a good day in defeat, completing 22 of 36 for 379 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. But, yeah, the winners. Jonathan Stewart fell just short of 100 yards (99 and a TD), so Dennis Dixon was a majority of the offense, throwing for 189 and 4 TD, and adding 57 yards on the ground. I'm really torn on Oregon - they're obviously a legitimate top-tier team, but I can't help but feel that, again, they've regressed a bit from their excellent start. But, hey, they're still a more than deserving #3.
Oregon: STOCK STEADY
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY

#5 Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 14
Well, at least the TAMU offense remained fairly balanced. Of course, they didn't do much with the ball either way. Sam Bradford was a machine here, completing 70% for 284 and 5 TD. When OU's on, they can beat anyone, but I still have concern in the back of my mind going forward, since they had two games (Colorado and Iowa State) where they just played horribly. As for A&M, allow me to just sigh.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN

#6 Missouri 55, Colorado 10
Wow. Just a complete annihilation, with the Tigers outgaining CU 598-196. Chase Daniel wasn't quite spectacular, but mostly had a field day, completing 59% for 421 and a 5/1 TD/INT. And really, Daniel is a completely overlooked Heisman candidate for reasons beyond me. He's really good! But, anyway, I renounce my skepticism last week about Missouri's defense - the Tigers are easily a better team than CU, but this was a dominating performance.
Missouri: STOCK UP
Colorado: STOCK STEADY

#8 Michigan 28, Michigan State 24
A pretty even game, and my instinct is to say this reflects poorly on Michigan rather than being a reason for hope with MSU (although the Spartans are still a fine team.) Mike Hart remains, probably, the best running back in the nation when he's healthy, as he got 110 yards on just 15 carries here. The concern for me here is that Michigan State ran all over the Wolverines as well. Javon Ringer (15 car, 128 yards) and Jehuu Caulcrick (22 car, 84 yards, 2 TD) are very talented backs and all, but being unable to stop the run really doesn't bode well for Michigan's chances against OSU. I'll knock the Wolverines down a notch, but they're still in that second tier of very good teams.
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Michigan State: STOCK STEADY

#9 Florida 49, Vanderbilt 22
Tim Tebow is not of this world. His passing line was so great (22/27, 281 yards, 3/1 TD/INT) ratio, that I'm almost sad he only had 35 yards rushing. Really, if the Heisman's supposed to be for best player, with the percentage of offense that this man is worth and the level that they're playing at, Tebow's easily the guy.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Vanderbilt: STOCK STEADY

#10 USC 24, Oregon State 3
USC can't just have a statement game that says they're back, can they? On the plus side, they held Oregon State to only 176 yards, a mark that's only seen regarding Stanford in the Pac 10. The bad news is that the offense was pretty mediocre. John David Booty had a fine day, going 19/33 for 157 and 2 TD, but that's more of a caretaker performance, and 100 yards from the rushing game isn't gonna cut it for the Trojans. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in this one, because that kind of defensive performance against any Pac 10 offense (except, again, Stanford) is impressive, and if they keep that up, they can more than struggle on offense and still win out.
USC: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY

Arkansas 48, #11 South Carolina 34
South Carolina allowed 541 yards rushing, so they're not worth wasting my time talking about this week past that thought. Darren McFadden had 323 yards and a TD, which hopefully means someone's fooled into taking him before the Jets' pick comes up in the draft. McFadden's a lot like Oklahoma - when he's on, he can not just beat, but pretty much destroy anyone and anything. But he has those days, like, again 61 yards against Florida International - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - and I just can't take him all that seriously. At least Colorado and Iowa State are fine teams, so Oklahoma has an excuse. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL? I feel like Jim Mora. PLAYOFFS? Anyway, I'll bump Arkansas up because I'm not an idiot and it's still an impressive performance, but general consensus may overrate McFadden to the level that I overrated South Carolina prior to this game.
Arkansas: STOCK UP
South Carolina: STOCK DOWN

#13 Penn State 26, Purdue 19
Solid game all in all for PSU. Anthony Morelli continues being perfectly fine, completing 63% for 210 and a TD, and the running game more than carried their fair share, gaining 251 yards. The Nittany Lion run defense also held serve, allowing only 68 yards. Not much to say here really - Penn State kept on doing what they've been doing.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Purdue: STOCK STEADY

#14 California 20, Washington State 17
More bad news than good for Cal, since it was a mostly even game, both in scoring and yardage. Still, at least the Bears held Wazzou QB Alex Brink under 50% passing. Cal's still the easy #4 team in the Pac 10, the gap just got a little bit wider between them and #3.
California: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK STEADY

Cincinnati 38, #15 South Florida 33
Hoo mama. Well, firstly, Matt Grothe had 457 total yards out of USF's 481. And really, Grothe outperforming Cincy by his lonesome shows the luck that Cincinnati needed for this to happen. Even though one could say that Cincy scoring off of a pick six and a punt block were negated by a pick six and return TD from South Florida, USF also turned it over a fairly insane eight times. EIGHT turnovers? What is this, Southern Miss against Rice. Really, this is the kind of fluke occurrence that doesn't really hurt my opinion of the Bulls going forward. Meanwhile, if this is a sign that Cincy's going to reviver their insane positive turnover margin games, then, well, I fear for UConn.
Cincinnati: STOCK STEADY
South Florida: STOCK STEADY

Florida State 27, #16 Boston College 17
Matt Ryan tried his 49% completion percentage magic again, but it wasn't enough in what was an even game yardage-wise. Drew Weatherford played like Matt Ryan on one of his better days, going 29/45 for 354 and 2 TD, and while FSU RB Antone Smith's 63 yards may not seem like much, it matched BC's total output on the ground. I'll knock BC down a bit just because they finally lost, and are no longer an obvious #1 in the ACC, whatever that was worth. The conference remains a crapshoot.
Florida State: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN

#17 Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
SHOOTOUT! Both QBs completed over 70% of their passes, but with drastically different results - OK State's Zac Robinson had 430 yards and 2 TD, while Colt McCoy only had 282 and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Of course, there's also the running game, where McCoy had 106 yards, 3 more than leading OK State rusher Dantrell Savage. And starting Texas RB Jamaal Charles added 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Texas is no Nebraska or anything, they're flawed on defense, and with McCoy's erratic play, they're just a shaky, shaky team. And OK State's more or less the same thing, except more consistent and at a slightly lower level.
Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY

#19 Georgia 44, Troy 34
Troy actually outgained UGA here, but had 4 turnovers to the Bulldogs' 3. The Trojans' Omar Hougabook also arguably won the QB battle over Matt Stafford (64%, 310, 2/2 vs. 59%, 217, 2/1), but Troy couldn't match the Georgia running game, as Knowshon Moreno had 196 yards and 3 TD. I'll put both teams up a notch - Moreno seems to be a consistent upper-level back, and Troy hung with the Bulldogs despite that.
Georgia: STOCK UP
Troy: STOCK UP

#21 Kansas 76, Nebraska 39
Weird to see, but absolutely not shocking. If anything, with a score like this, I'm surprised Kansas only had 582 yards. I'll just put KU QB Todd Reesing's line here for posterity: 30/41, 354 yards, 6 TD. The Huskers D just keeps reaching new levels of ineptitude, and it's almost a shame that this keeps Kansas as a relative unknown. An impressive one, but still.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN

#22 Illinois 44, Minnesota 17
Normally I'd make a remark about Minnesota allowing 448 yards rushing, but between South Carolina and Nebraska, I'll just sigh, perhaps chuckle, and move on.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN

#23 Auburn 35, Tennessee Tech 3
Only 115 yards rushing for Auburn is probably a bad sign, but hey, Brandon Cox completed over 80%. Good for him!
Auburn: STOCK STEADY

#24 Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Just a straight up whoopin', as GT's quietly been eliminated from ACC Coastal contention. Sean Glennon actually completed 69%, and the Hokies defense just pretty much neutralized the Yellow Jackets. A pretty impressive win for the Hokies, one that they very much needed.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN

#25 Connecticut 38, Rutgers 19
UConn got lucky here, though to less of an extent than they have in recent upset wins. Tyler Lorenzen pulled a Matt Ryan Special, completing only 48% but getting 2 TDs in a Huskies win. But the real star of the show was ex-starting RB Donald Brown, who had 154 yards and a TD when forced into action. Brown's resurgence plus, if he's healthy, Andre Dixon, gives the Huskies a duo not seen since...well, Caulley and Brockington two years ago. Rutgers remains a good team, the intrigue it to see if UConn can keep up their Wake Forest act going on the road, as they head to Cincinnati next week.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY

Arizona 34, UCLA 27
Ugh, and it really shouldn't have been this close. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama didn't have a high-percentage day (58%), but with 341 yards and 3 TD, nobody's complaining. UCLA's slowly going from funny to just kind of sad, like a choking cat.
Arizona: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN

East Carolina 56, Memphis 40
CRAZY MID-MAJOR RUNNING BACK OF THE WEEK: ECU's Chris Johnson, who had 301 yards and 4 touchdowns on 20 carries. And hey, Memphis QB Martin Hankins had 416 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 57% passing. I'll give ECU a bump up since they seem to have a legitimate weapon.
East Carolina: STOCK UP
Memphis: STOCK STEADY

NC State 19, Miami 16 (OT)
Canes Slot Machine/QB Kirby Freeman had the most amazing line in recent memory: 1/14, 84 yards, 1/3 TD/INT. I guess he hit three 7's one time and got an 84 yard TD out of it, while the rest were like "Cherry....ANOTHER CHERRY!....awwww, NC State defender." And yet it still only went to OT.
NC State: STOCK DOWN
Miami: STOCK DOWN

Mississippi 38, Northwestern State 31
Ole Miss got outplayed by a I-AA team, and not a particularly good one. After a surprisingly good start, statistically if not record-wise, it looks like the Rebels have given up on winning and are focusing on beating out Syracuse for the title of "worst BCS conference team."
Mississippi: STOCK DOWN

Navy 46, Notre Dame 44 (3 OT)
Charlie Weis is an idiot for not going for the game-winning field goal, that jumping sack by that one Navy defender was AWESOME, and Notre Dame may go 1-11. A fun time.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN

TCU 37, New Mexico 0
An insanely dominating performance, as the TCU defense held one of the MWC's better teams to only 119 yards. Just...wow, the best performance in any conference game by a Mountain West team this year. If TCU can follow this up, this could be an immensely entertaining path of rage.
TCU: STOCK UP
New Mexico: STOCK DOWN

Rice 56, UTEP 48
A LEGITIMATE WIN FOR RICE!
Rice: STOCK UP
UTEP: STOCK DOWN

Week 10 Preview: Saturday and Sunday

2007-11-02T21:02:00.000-04:00

Okay, I think I made it through this week. I seem to be in one piece, yes.

SATURDAY
12:00 PM

#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2

Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3

Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2

Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3

Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2

NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2

Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4

Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1

12:30 PM

Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3

Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3

Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2

1:00 PM

Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3

2:00 PM

Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4

East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1

Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5

2:30 PM

Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5

Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2

3:00 PM

Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1

Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3

San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4

Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1

UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4

3:30 PM

#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3

Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1

#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2

Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4

UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1

Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3

3:45 PM

Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1

4:00 PM

Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5

5:00 PM

#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3

Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3

Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2

5:30 PM

New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1

6:30 PM

#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1

Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3

6:40 PM

#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1

7:00 PM

Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2

Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1

Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2

7:15 PM

Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2

7:30 PM

Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3

8:00 PM

Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2

Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2

#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4

Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1

#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3

9:00 PM

Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3

10:00 PM

Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4

SUNDAY
8:00 PM

SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5

Week 10 Preview: Thursday and Friday

2007-10-29T22:07:00.000-04:00

THURSDAY
7:30 PM

#24 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Georgia Tech (5-3)
Two teams that are probably overrated. In the ACC shock? Guess which team has the statistically better defense! Hint: it's the one with the better offense too. PLUS I get to call the upset that continues the ACC's frustrating parity. YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2

FRIDAY
7:00 PM

Temple (3-5) @ Ohio (4-5)
Oh, who knows. Damn MAC. Ohio's probably more talented, and they have the better offense, which may be what matters in the defenseless realm of the MAC. Still, Temple's riding a three-game winning streak, so why not go with momentum?
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1

7:30 PM

Akron (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-4)
Kind of a similar thing to the Temple/Ohio game, to an extent, except everything's in BGSU's favor. The Falcons have the better offense, and while they've been frustratingly shaky, Akron has a severe lack of momentum going. Although who knows what that means in the MAC.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1

8:00 PM

Nevada (4-4) @ New Mexico State (4-5)
New Mexico State was expected to be all-offense, no-defense, but has been more of no-defense, kinda-offense. Nevada's D isn't all that great or anything, but they probably have the edge on both sides of the ball.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 9

2007-10-29T21:40:00.000-04:00

Fuck the LIRR. Going back to the "NOTES!" version of the top 25 this week, just out of time-related necessity. (I'm essentially taking 5 AM from 7 PM out of my day for training this week, didn't get back here until 8 thanks to train delays, and have to sleep around 10 or 11ish because, again, I have to get up at 5 AM tomorrow.)

#1 Ohio State (9-0, #1 LW)
#2 LSU (7-1, #2)
#3 Oregon (7-1, #3)
#4 West Virginia (7-1, #4)
#5 Oklahoma (7-1, #7)
#6 Missouri (7-1, #8)
#7 Arizona State (8-0, #9)
#8 Michigan (7-2, #10)
#9 Florida (5-3, #5)
#10 USC (6-2, #6)
#11 South Carolina (6-3, #11)
#12 Wisconsin (7-2, #16)
#13 Penn State (6-3, #15)
#14 California (5-3, #17)
#15 South Florida (6-2, #13)
#16 Boston College (8-0, #18)
#17 Texas (7-2, #14)
#18 Alabama (6-2, #19)
#19 Georgia (6-2, #23)
#20 Kentucky (6-3, #12)
#21 Kansas (8-0, #21)
#22 Illinois (6-2, #20)
#23 Auburn (6-3, --)
#24 Virginia Tech (6-2, #22)
#25 Connecticut (7-1, --)

NOTES!
Oklahoma moves up mostly by attrition - the top 4 are the only real should-be national title contenders at the moment.

I hate to keep South Carolina at #11 after two losses in a row, but I still think they beat all the teams behind them, and the Vols loss was more bad luck than the continuation of a trend that started against Vandy.

Both BC and Kansas have proved they can beat decent teams and not much else - BC's just faced more decent teams.

Brandon Cox's improvements seem to be legitimate, so I'm giving Auburn some credit.

UConn at 25 may be a little bit of wishful thinking/bias, but at the very least they've played well week in, week out, unlike the inconsistent Tennessees and Clemsons of the world.

Week 9 Recap

2007-10-29T00:04:00.000-04:00

Just some fair warning: one of the negatives of getting things out of the way last Sunday to work all week is that I didn't get to remind myself on Friday what my opinions were of each team. So apologies for any disconnect with what I thought I thought and what I actually thought going into this week's games. Does that make sense? Probably not. Ignore that.

#1 Ohio State 37, #15 Penn State 17
Yeah, pretty one-sided, as Ohio State's defense continued their dominance. Anthony Morelli was merely not very good rather than completely shitting the bed (outside of that awful pick six late). That passes for legitimate improvement from Morelli, even if he's still fallen way short of expectations for his career. If there's anything else to be taken out of this, it's that over half of PSU's 263 yards came on the ground, so that's something. Still, when 139 rushing yards is considered a relative chink in the armor, that's a sign of a pretty damn good run defense. Still, as Michigan showed last year, there's no guarantee of the run D holding up, so Wisconsin and Michigan should still be challenges, although they'll still probably kick the shit out of Illinois.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Penn State: STOCK STEADY

#3 Oregon 24, #6 USC 17
I guess it's a crowning of Oregon, although USC was the first team to relatively stop the Ducks, holding them to 339 yards. Still, it's hard to say it was a bad offensive day for the Ducks or anything - Jonathan Stewart ran for 102 and 2 scores, and while Dennis Dixon only had 157 passing yards, he completed 64% and added 76 yards and a TD on the ground. It was a relatively close game, though - USC outgained the Ducks, and if not for a Stanley Havili fumble, or to a lesser extent, QB Mark Sanchez's two picks, the USC "dynasty" could still have a chance of living on. I'll leave Oregon steady, as having their worst game of the year against this defense isn't anything to worry about, especially when you still have two great individual performances. As for USC, they'll get a slight nudge down - the potential for dominance seems to be gone, but they're still a very good team; just not an elite one.
Oregon: STOCK STEADY
USC: STOCK DOWN

#4 West Virginia 31, #24 Rutgers 3
Not QUITE this one-sided statistically, but Mike Teel was absolutely awful - 14/30, 128 yards, 2 picks. Ray Rice has a good day, going for 142 yards on the ground and keeping pace with Pat White's 156 and 1 TD on the ground. But, that could be construed as a bad thing since White is the QB and all, and Steve Slaton added 73 and 3 scores on the ground. Same old story with WVU - that defense is perfectly fine, even if they don't have that signature game you'd like, while that offense can go with anyone's. As for Rutgers, a slight nudge down just based on Teel's performance.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN

#23 Georgia 42, #5 Florida 30
Pardon me while I throw my hands in the air out of frustration. Matthew Stafford's good day (11/18, 217, 3/1 TD/INT) wasn't all that surprising, since Florida's secondary has been suspect all year. And really, even though Knowshon Moreno's big game (188, 3 TD) surprised me, it probably shouldn't have - Georgia's obviously a good running team, and LSU had a lot of success on the ground against the Gators (even if other teams, not so much). I'm somewhat confused as to what this means - Florida, much like USC, dips from an elite team to one that's just very good, especially with that defense seeming more and more like an overall liability. As for Georgia, well, the Bulldogs finally showed some life, but who the hell knows what it means going forward. I'll bump them up for now, even if my confidence is somewhat lacking. Oh, and of course, all these teams beating each other shows the SEC's strength, as opposed to that weak Big Ten.
Georgia: STOCK UP
Florida: STOCK DOWN

#8 Missouri 42, Iowa State 28
The Tigers didn't get much yardage rushing (but got 3 scores), but Chase Daniel had 76% accuracy, if only for 250 yards and a 1/1 ratio. Honestly, it was about an even game if not for two defensive TDs by Mizzou. Something named Alexander Robinson ran for 149 and a TD for Iowa State. So, yeah - Missouri's defense is back to being a work in progress, Texas Tech and Nebraska games be damned. Though, obviously, the offense seems capable of carrying it. Iowa State showed life, good for them. Of the six teams that are the worst of the BCS conferences, ISU may be the best.
Missouri: STOCK DOWN
Iowa State: STOCK UP

#9 Arizona State 31, #17 California 20
The Pac 10's a hell of a thing. Outside of Stanford, and, most of the time, Arizona and the Washington schools, the offenses are good enough and the defenses mediocre enough that pretty much either team can win at either time. And that's what happened here, as the yardage was just about even, and Cal returning a fumble for a TD deep in ASU territory was pretty much negated by Nate Longshore's picks. Arizona State's the team that's gotten the breaks in the conference so far - damned if I know if they'll continue doing so.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
California: STOCK STEADY

#10 Michigan 34, Minnesota 10
Just a flatout domination, and I find Michigan doing so on the ground kind of funny given Minnesota's typical struggles against the pass. Really, the most intresting thing here is if Michigan's amazing day on the ground (Brandon Minor - 157, TD; Carlos Brown - 132, 2 TD) will do anything to hurt Mike Hart's Heisman candidacy.
Michigan: STOCK STEADY
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN

Tennessee 27, #11 South Carolina 24 (OT)
Sigh, the SEC. SC dominated by the yardage, but turnovers doomed them. Both quarterbacks were decent, but the big game was had by the Gamecocks' Cory Boyd, who was, in fact, implemented more in the offense, and had 20 carries for 160 yards and a score. Tennessee remains a fine if second-tier SEC team - my opinion of the SEC past LSU is lowering somewhat, so I'm wondering what that means now. To that end, I'll bump down South Carolina a notch.
Tennessee: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK DOWN

Mississippi State 31, #12 Kentucky 14
I feel like the girlfriend of a drug addict or something. I DEFENDED YOU. I STUCK UP FOR YOU. I THOUGHT YOU HAD CHANGED. AND NOW YOU DO THIS? Kentucky didn't play all that awful, but the defense let Mississippi State keep pace. The Wildcats running game didn't do much of anything, but the biggest factor was Andre' Woodson having a pretty bad night, considering both his level of play and the competition: 24/42 (57%), 230 yards, 2/3 TD/INT. Three picks? Really? Mississippi State retains their #11 team in the SEC status, while Kentucky takes a huge hit. I mean come on. Just a bad effort in every aspect.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN

Connecticut 22, #13 South Florida 15
Still bizarre. Matt Grothe remained a one-man show on offense, and while he was dangerous on the ground (146 yards on, really, 25 runs, TD), he was fairly disappointing as an actual quarterback (16/30, 189, 2 INT). UConn actually had a similar effort, only it took two men: Tyler Lorenzen's line (13/25, 194 1/1) was similar to Grothe passing, while Andre Dixon, who is quickly becoming the Huskies' star player, had 167 yards on the ground. Essentially, the game came down to UConn catching all the breaks, as LB Scott Lutrus got a pick six off of Grothe, the USF kicker shanked 2 field goals early, and a holding call nullified what would've been the tying score by the Bulls. I'll keep moving UConn up since, luck or not, they keep looking impressive, but honestly, they're amazingly lucky to have the record they do. Still, woo.
Connecticut: STOCK UP
South Florida: STOCK STEADY

#14 Texas 28, Nebraska 25
Horrible game for both teams. Nebraska choked like dogs, allowing Texas's Jamaal Charles to run for 216 yards and 3 touchdowns. In the fourth quarter. Yes, really. As for Texas, the fact that it took THAT long is pretty horrifying for a supposedly good offense. Colt McCoy was horrible horrible horrible, completing a shade under 43% for 181 yards and a pick. Texas probably takes the bigger hit out of these, if only because Nebraska was already so bad they pretty much had nothing to lose.
Texas: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN

#16 Wisconsin 33, Indiana 3
PJ Hill got injured, but it didn't really matter, as a cadre of Badger backs combined for 279 yards and 4 TDs to put away IU. I'm gonna bump Wisconsin down a bit if only because the shine is somewhat off Tyler Donovan, who was only fine with a 12/21, 144 yard, INT line. Indiana's somewhat quietly been skidding in recent weeks, but they still should pick up elusive win #6 against Ball State.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Indiana: STOCK DOWN

#18 Boston College 14, #22 Virginia Tech 10
This was the game that made Matt Ryan. The way he willed his team to recover that crucial onside kick late. The leadership he displayed in throwing 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. And, of course, that Heismanesque 48% completion percentage. I thought Tech's defense was overrated, but maybe not - as overrated as Ryan is, he's not THIS bad, and they did hold the Eagles to only 32 yards on the ground. But back to the Ryan for Heisman thing - really? Not overwhelmingly great stats against an extremely suspect schedule? Though, honestly, I'm not even sure who the other contenders are anymore. Tebow and Woodson's teams both lost their third game this week (and Woodson looked bad in his), and my other top-tier player, based on performance, is Mike Hart. And if missing time with injury seems to have derailed Pat White's Heisman hopes, I imagine the same is true of Hart. McFadden's team has nothing past him and his backup - maybe the two Oregon guys? Hype seems to have picked up on them, but I imagine they'd split votes. Jeez. Anyway, BC remains a fringe top-15 team with a weak schedule, Virginia Tech confirmed people's beliefs about them - of course, the coaches and AP seem to think that's worth about 10 more spots in the polls than I do.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Virginia Tech: STOCK STEADY

#20 Illinois 28, Ball State 17
Illinois by numbers. The running game carried the day, with Rashard Mendenhall going for 189 and 2 TD, and Juice Williams adding 99 and 2 scores on the ground. And Williams remains awful as a throwing QB, going only 7 of 15 for 145 and 2 picks. I'm moving Illinois down a bit, since Williams's performance is forgiveable against a Big Ten D (well, not Minnesota), but Ball State?
Illinois: STOCK DOWN
Ball State: STOCK STEADY

#21 Kansas 19, Texas A&M 11
Probably Kansas's biggest win to date? Decisive, but not one sided. Surprisingly, KU shut down the Aggies running game, leaving Stephen McGee to throw it, and he did a fair job (24/44, 244, TD), if obviously not enough to win it. Jayhawks back Brandon McAnderson was the obvious star here, with 183 and 2 touchdowns. QB Todd Reesing was a perfectly fine caretaker, going 21/33 for 180 yards. I'll give Kansas a minor nudge up for the run D, and again, this being their most impressive win thus far. Still, they don't seem to be a national title-caliber team or anything.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN

NC State 29, #25 Virginia 24
Called it. UVA QB Jameel Sewell wasn't THAT bad, going for 260 and a 2/2 ratio on 56% passing, but he needed a running game to complement that. And boy did he not have one, even if the Cavs' 96 yards rushing still beat NCSU's 86. NCSU QB Dan Evans was, obviously in light of those stats, their best offensive player, completing 56.5% for 347 and a 3/1 ratio. NC State's getting back in the swing of things, and Virginia's luck may be evening out. The ACC is just a wonderful glut.
NC State: STOCK UP
Virginia: STOCK STEADY

Buffalo 26, Akron 10
Buffalo didn't deserve to win this one, but the score still makes me smile. GO BULLS.
Buffalo: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK STEADY

Arizona 48, Washington 41
I believe Arizona QB Willie Tuitama's line suggests the new offense has finally taken: 38/51, 510 yards, 4/1 TD/INT. Meanwhile, oof is Washington falling back to earth HARD.
Arizona: STOCK UP
Washington: STOCK DOWN

Arkansas 58, Florida International 10
Ignore Darren McFadden's 4 touchdowns, don't those 88 yards on 3.2 yards per carry against, yes, Florida International just SCREAM Heisman?
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Florida International: STOCK NEUTRAL

Colorado 31, Texas Tech 26
Well, now Mizzou's defensive performance against Tech looks very unimpressive. Graham Harrell throwing 4 picks was the obvious difference here. Tech's sliding, Colorado's just perfectly coasting along in "acceptable BCS team" territory.
Colorado: STOCK STEADY
Texas Tech: STOCK DOWN

Eastern Michigan 19, Western Michigan 2
I think Western Michigan's fairly easily the most disappointing team in the nation. Just wanted to say that.
Eastern Michigan: STOCK STEADY
Western Michigan: STOCK DOWN

Houston 34, UTEP 31
Just wanted to mention Houston, who's having a great year statistically but not as much scorewise. This week's hero: RB Anthony Alridge, who had 204 yards on 27 carries.
Houston: STOCK UP
UTEP: STOCK STEADY

Iowa 34, Michigan State 27 (2 OT)
Pointing out that Michigan State had a loss in October that was fairly inexplicable statistically. They're doing it again, and I am knocking them down based on nothing but track record. PUCKER PUCKER PUCKER
Iowa: STOCK STEADY
Michigan State: STOCK DOWN

Louisville 24, Pittsburgh 17
Pitt RB LaRod Stephens-Howling had only 2 yards on 3 carries, so maybe they're not a new team with him back, as I had thought.
Louisville: STOCK STEADY
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN

Memphis 28, Tulane 27
Another crazy line from Tulane RB Matt Forte: 44 carries, 278 yards, 2 TD. These remain two mediocre teams that can steal quite a few wins.
Memphis: STOCK STEADY
Tulane: STOCK STEADY

Toledo 70, Northern Illinois 21
FIU's pretty easily the worst team in I-A, but Northern Illinois is making a strong case for #2. Why, yes, a struggling Toledo team did gain 812 yards in this game.
Toledo: STOCK STEADY
Northern Illinois: STOCK DOWN

Washington State 27, UCLA 7
Always close on a big laugh.
Washington State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK DOWN

Um. Holy shit.

2007-10-27T19:27:00.000-04:00

UConn really beat South Florida. Also, I would just like to say that I love Deadspin very very much, and hi to everyone who's come over from there. My traffic October 1-26th: 58 hits. So far today, I've had 340. Wow. Things are kind of bare bones for the moment as I start my first job out of college, but there's previews, top 25s and recaps for pretty much every week both this season and last. Plus, check out my statistical study on overrated/underrated teams from last December, I intend on doing another one for this year. It's a very busy weekend for my pre-training stuff for said job, so my week 9 (God, it's week 9 already) recap may not be up until Monday or so. Then again, it could be up as soon as later tonight or early Sunday if I feel like getting it out of the way. Wow, what a banner day. BRING IT RUTGERS

Week 9 Preview

2007-10-22T01:05:00.000-04:00

I'm in the pre-training phase for my first job out of college, and have a whole lot of reading/assorted work to do, so I'm getting this all out of the way so I can be productive during the week. Pray nobody gets injured so my thoughts remain relevant.

THURSDAY
7:30 PM

#18 Boston College (7-0) @ #22 Virginia Tech (6-1)
Well. BC isn't really all that great, but then again, VT hasn't showed much of anything either except against the Dukes of the world. Still, I mean, come on. It's an undefeated team. On a Thursday. On the road. In a game that could very well be an upset. In 2007. Duh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2

9:00 PM

Air Force (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-2)
UNM seems to be the favorite in the Mountain West at the moment, and Air Force has gotten a bit lucky in a few of their conference wins. I expect things to even out somewhat here, even if the craziness continuing wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1

FRIDAY
9:00 PM

Boise State (6-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
A bit of a close one. Boise seems to easily be the best team in the WAC, but it doesn't seem like a huge difference or them being a tier above. Still, while Fresno is much closer to their pre-2006 level than their implosion last year, they haven't really broken out from the WAC pack. An upset's possible, but Boise's the class of the conference until proven otherwise.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3

SATURDAY
12:00 PM

#4 West Virginia (6-1) @ #24 Rutgers (5-2)
West Virginia's done a pretty good job shutting down the run, though Ray Rice is admittedly the best back they've faced yet. Still, Rutgers needs to be at the top of their game to have a chance against the Mountaineers, and Mike Teel's spottiness doesn't have me completely convinced yet. The Mountaineers should be able to put up points here, though if fumbilitis strikes the team like it did versus USF, Rutgers can obviously win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2

Indiana (5-3) @ #16 Wisconsin (6-2)
An intriguing one. Indiana isn't especially known for its running game, but if Wisconsin's run defense holds to its poor form, the Hoosiers backs plus their great QB, Kellen Lewis, may be too much for the Badgers to handle. Still, the same can be said the other way around - Wisconsin has a very good QB in Tyler Donovan, and running back P.J. Hill's probably the best player on either team. This could, and frankly probably should, be an exceedingly close game, but I'll give the nod to the proven home team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1

Ball State (5-3) @ #20 Illinois (5-3)
Ball State's been good in spots, but come on now. The Cardinals offense may be able to do something, but I don't see them stopping Illinois from running it often and running it for many scores.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 4

Colorado (4-4) @ Texas Tech (6-2)
Colorado stopped the Oklahoma offense, so I guess anything's possible. Plus Cody Hawkins is a bit of a gunslinger, so the Buffaloes actually have a chance if this goes into a shootout. Still, Texas Tech's been mostly on point this year, and I see no reason to pick against them.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2

Michigan State (5-3) @ Iowa (3-5)
Iowa turned back into a pumpkin against Purdue, but the Hawkeyes remain a looming threat. They shut down Illinois's run game and forced them to rely on a QB that can't win a game by his lonesome. The same thing could well happen here. That said, Brian Hoyer's probably better than either of the Illinois quarterbacks, and Iowa's offense was bad enough themselves that they only won thanks to a horrible game-ending interception. The Hawkeyes can win, but if they also can lose if their gameplan works, I'm not picking them.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1

Pittsburgh (3-4) @ Louisville (4-4)
It says something about how far Louisville's fallen when this game has intrigue. It says something more when I find myself picking Pittsburgh. I'm not sure the Pitt defense can completely stop Louisville, but the Panthers looked like a new team against Cincinnati with LaRod Stephens-Howling back. It almost reminds me of a team they played close and a team I just discussed, Michigan State, in that their two star running backs can carry the load while complementing a QB that, while solid, isn't a game-changer. Of course, since Pitt QB Pat Bostick is a freshman, that may also have to be changed to "isn't a game changer YET." Plus, really, you don't have to be a game-changer against Louisville's D, sometimes they'll just let you have some yards after catch. So, yes, I'm picking Pitt to pull off the somewhat shocking upset. Although, of course, watch Louisville go nuts and win 49-10.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1

North Carolina (2-5) @ Wake Forest (5-2)
Wake's a fine team, which, in the ACC, will give you a 5-2 record. UNC's surprisingly good, much better than their record - they could've very well beaten South Carolina and Virginia Tech. While I'm not in love with Heels QB TJ Yates's 10/10 TD/INT ratio, parity tends to reign in the ACC and UNC is probably at Wake's level.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1

Northwestern (5-3) @ Purdue (6-2)
Oh mama, this could be a fun shootout. This SHOULD be a fun shootout. Purdue has the more talented horses so I'll give them the edge at home, but Northwestern could win this very easily.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1

12:30 PM

Mississippi State (4-4) @ #12 Kentucky (6-2)
It'd take the conflation of MSU being at the top of their game and Kentucky playing the worst they have all year in order for the Bulldogs to win this. I mean, it could happen, but Kentucky on a bad night by their standards this year (if they've even had one?) should put enough points to win this.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4

1:00 PM

Akron (3-4) @ Buffalo (3-5)
Buffalo played well against Syracuse, even if they lost. Akron hasn't been all that impressive, and I am nothing if not irrationally on the Buffalo bandwagon at the moment. Even if they were UConn's rivalry game in NCAA Football for some reason for quite a few years.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1

Central Michigan (4-4) @ Kent State (3-5)
CMU looked to have gotten its act together, and I realize Clemson is a cut about the MAC, but wow, that was a whoopin'. Kent State's been somewhat unlucky in close games, so I'll call for things to even out here at home.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1

Delaware @ Navy (4-3)
Delaware's typically a pretty good I-AA, so they're probably good enough to do well against the suspect Navy D. But, hey, if I didn't pick North Dakota State vs. Minnesota, I'm not picking Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2

2:00 PM

Iowa State (1-7) @ #8 Missouri (6-1)
Iowa State's been somewhat unlucky on the year, but come on now. If Missouri shut down the Texas Tech offense, this'll be ugly early and often.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4

Florida International (0-7) @ Arkansas (4-3)
FIU's the worst team in I-A, fairly easily. Way to schedule tough, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5

Miami of Ohio (4-4) @ Vanderbilt (4-3)
Miami's a dangerous MAC team, but I'm on the Vandy bandwagon after their win over South Carolina, where they finally played up to my preseason expectation. I'm on the VANDwagon, ha ha ha. God that was horrible.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 3

UNLV (2-6) @ Wyoming (4-3)
The Mountain West is so filled with parity, who knows. Two teams that probably deserved to win last week, but I'd say Wyoming's closer to the top of the conference while UNLV's near the bottom. And the Cowboys are at home, so there.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2

3:00 PM

#6 USC (6-1) @ #3 Oregon (6-1)
Oh boy, this one'll be fun. While USC's obviously a top-flight team, they really haven't had much of a schedule thus far, with the best team they've beaten being...god, Nebraska. Thus, while the stats say USC has the better defense by far, it's hard to tell how good the unit is when they've been playing Evan Sharpley. Then again, the inverse is somewhat true, as Oregon hasn't faced much of a defense all year, outside of Michigan who, well, you know, spread offense. Oh, what the hell, I'll go with the Ducks - their offense has been nuts week in week out, while USC's had the lapse against Arizona.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1

Arizona (2-6) @ Washington (2-5)
Hard one to pick. Arizona's had a bit of hard luck, and that new offense seems to be taking somewhat. But Washington's also a fine enough team to win games like this, even if the shine's somewhat off from their big 2-0 start. UA's luck could even out here, or Jake Locker's mini-Tebow impression could lead the Huskies to a win. I'll go with the former based mostly on gut feeling.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1

Memphis (3-4) @ Tulane (2-5)
It's a Tulane game, so I have to say, MAN. MATT FORTE'S REALLY GOOD. Memphis has been decent but unimpressive, so I'll actually call for Forte to lead the way to a minor upset.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1

SMU (1-6) @ Tulsa (4-3)
SMU is bad! Tulsa will put up very many yards and have a victorious day!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4

3:05 PM

Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ Utah State (0-7)
USU's probably gotta win a game sometime this year, but Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive and should be better than that record.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2

3:30 PM

#5 Florida (5-2) @ #23 Georgia (5-2)
Well, Georgia's better than Auburn, so I suppose the Bulldogs have a shot. Still, they haven't been playing all that great lately, so I expect Florida to win this handily. If Georgia wasn't a running team, I'd give them more of a shot, but Florida's secondary is their weakness, and they've actually done a pretty good job controlling things on the ground.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3

Minnesota (1-7) @ #10 Michigan (6-2)
Oh come on now.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5

#13 South Florida (6-1) @ Connecticut (6-1)
I am so close to doing it, but I won't. UConn neutralized Brian Brohm and all, but...no, no, I can't. Not two weeks in a row. Even if USF hasn't really shown an ability to run it yet. Oh, oh, maybe I could...oh, no.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1

Nebraska (4-4) @ #14 Texas (6-2)
Whether this will be a step up from Texas's wins over Baylor and Iowa State remains inconclusive.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4

Clemson (5-2) @ Maryland (4-3)
Picking Clemson games seems beyond rhyme or reason. On a good day, they can beat anyone in the conference. On a bad day, they can lose to pretty much anyone short of Duke. I'll say that the Tigers have turned the corner after smacking the crap out of Central Michigan, but really, who knows.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1

UAB (2-5) @ East Carolina (4-4)
Meh. UAB's more competitive than expected, but I wouldn't even call them mediocre within the conference. ECU's perfectly fine, nothing more, nothing less, and that should be enough against this team at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2

Western Michigan (3-5) @ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
WMU's been horribly disappointing. Eastern Michigan's been horrible.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1

3:35 PM

Baylor (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
Baylor's not wholly awful, but they're easily the worst team in the Big 12. KSU's not at the level where this is a guaranteed win just yet, but it's pretty close.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4

4:00 PM

Louisiana-Monroe (2-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-3)
ULM's been getting their act together after an awful start, but FAU's still one of the top Sun Belt teams until further notice.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2

4:05 PM

Idaho (1-7) @ Nevada (3-4)
Nevada might be the #3 team in the WAC. They've been smacking the crap out of some teams with the Pistol offense, and this should be no exception.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3

4:30 PM

#25 Virginia (7-1) @ NC State (2-5)
I know I ranked UVA and all, but this screams of an upset to even things out. UVA's not as good as that record, NC State's not as bad as theirs. If the Wolfpack cutting down on turnovers (yes, 2 counts) last week signals the start of a trend, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1

Rice (1-6) @ Marshall (0-7)
If Marshall doesn't get on the board here, they might as well give up. They're not THAT bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3

5:30 PM

Utah (5-3) @ Colorado State (1-6)
Meh. CSU didn't look all that impressive against UNLV in their first win of the year. Utah seems to have gotten their act together, so I'll go with the hot hand.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3

6:00 PM

Mississippi (2-6) @ Auburn (5-3)
Brandon Cox has shown legitimate improvement. Unless he regresses horribly, this should be a definitive win at worst.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3

Ohio (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-3)
BGSU's been playing beter of the two as of late. That means nothing given the MAC, but still.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1

6:30 PM

Stanford (3-4) @ Oregon State (4-3)
Stanford showed some legitimate improvement in beating Arizona, so they have a shot here. Still, Oregon State seems to be picking up steam as the season goes on.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3

UCLA (5-2) @ Washington State (2-5)
I honestly have no rationale behind this pick except that it's UCLA, and this almost has to happen.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2

7:00 PM

#21 Kansas (7-0) @ Texas A&M (6-2)
A&M's a perfectly above average team that can beat a whole bunch of teams unless the matchup presents a problem, such as Texas Tech's wacky offense and Miami's stout run defense. Kansas really presents no such problem - they're just pretty good overall. And, hey, A&M is too, and they're at home and might be better.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2

Troy (5-2) @ Arkansas State (3-4)
Given Arkansas State's implosion last week, there's almost no way I can pick them.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3

Middle Tennessee State (3-5) @ North Texas (1-6)
There's always the shot UNT puts up enough yardage to be a threat, but I'm not gonna pick it here. MTSU looks to be a perfectly fine Sun Belt team, which is more than the Mean Green is.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2

Northern Illinois (1-7) @ Toledo (3-5)
NIU's awful. Awful bad. Awful awful.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 3

7:45 PM

#11 South Carolina (6-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
The Vols have a shot - SC's far from an unbeatable team, as Vandy obviously showed. Still, I can't help but think that Carolina will exploit that Tennessee secondary and bad. Plus, c'mon, it's Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2

8:00 PM

#1 Ohio State (8-0) @ #15 Penn State (6-2)
Oh no, this could get real ugly. OSU shuts down the run almost completely, which leaves the Nittany Lions to rely on...Anthony Morelli. He's improved, but, um, well, no.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4

Duke (1-6) @ Florida State (4-3)
Duke has a shot. No way I'm pickin' em, but Duke has a shot.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3

9:05 PM

Houston (4-3) @ UTEP (4-3)
UTEP's fairly lucky to have that record. Houston's offensive firepower seems to be back at full speed, so that'll be trouble for the Miners.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2

9:30 PM

Brigham Young (5-2) @ San Diego State (2-5)
BYU's good! SDSU, not so much.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3

10:00 PM

#17 California (5-2) @ #9 Arizona State (7-0)
Y'know, Arizona State's defense hasn't been half bad. That said, this'll be the best offense they've faced. Really, this is a pick em - it'll probably turn into a Pac 10tastic shootout that either team can win. Still, if one team lays the beat down, I'd lean towards it being Arizona State, as the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home in recent years.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1

SUNDAY
12:05 AM

New Mexico State (4-4) @ Hawaii (7-0)
The crap teams of the WAC have been taking their best shot and coming very close to knocking off Hawaii. I realize this is at Aloha Stadium and all, but New Mexico State is almost definitely the best of those crap teams.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1

8:00 PM

Central Florida (4-3) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's run defense isn't especially great, so I expect UCF's Kevin Smith to continue his torrid pace. Then again, USM's a running team too, and UCF's run defense is about as mediocre as USM's. Oh, who knows, I'll just go with my first instinct.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 8

2007-10-21T23:31:00.000-04:00

#1 Ohio State (8-0, #1 week)
The one team that is not only taking care of business, but winning in a fashion befitting of a #1 team. That defense is excellent.

#2 LSU (7-1, #2)
Same old, same old. That defense is very good, and hey, so is the offense. No longer at juggernaut status, though.

#3 Oregon (6-1, #4)
Um, hello? Oregon's lack of national publicity amazes me. The defense is somewhat suspect, but that offense might just be the best in the nation. The balance makes it amazingly dangerous - QB Dennis Dixon can take over the game and win it, and that's if RB Jonathan Stewart doesn't do so himself.

#4 West Virginia (6-1, #5)
As I said, WVU's a boring team to write about at the moment - they always play pretty much as expected. They're a very good team! They like to run a lot, dontcha know.

#5 Florida (5-2, #6)
I was going back and forth between WVU and Florida, but decided to give the one-loss team the benefit of the doubt. Plus that secondary's still a concern, even if one that can be overcome.

#6 USC (6-1, #9)
Yeah, they seem back at full strength. Cue the Jaws theme.

#7 Oklahoma (7-1, #3)
Ehhhh. That Iowa State game makes them look that much shakier. The CU performance has gone from a one-time thing to showing that they can be vulnerable, which knocks them down a tier.

#8 Missouri (6-1, #8)
Another team being slept on, if nowhere near to the degree as Oregon's been. If the Texas Tech game is a sign that they have a defense, they're a darkhorse national title contender.

#9 Arizona State (7-0, #12)
They've looked good. They've been untested, though. An undefeated year may be out of the question, but they seem at the level where they can beat three of Cal, Oregon, USC and UCLA.

#10 Michigan (6-2, #15)
Hey, why not? Part attrition, part beating a fellow top-25 team without the most consistent star player in the nation.

#11 South Carolina (6-2, #11)
Ehhhh. The Vandy loss was nothing surprising, and they beat Kentucky, AND the top 25 has a soft underbelly this year, so the Gamecocks hold steady, even if it's at a weaker #11 than last week.

#12 Kentucky (6-2, #13)
Another attrition ranking. They're still in the upper-level team, no shame in losing to two teams legitimately better than you.

#13 South Florida (6-1, #7)
Yeah, they lost to Rutgers, but that seems to be them on a bad night rather than a true indicator of their playing level. Still a very good team, and one that has a lot of reasons to like them, unlike...

#14 Texas (6-2, #14)
Just going along, beating Baylor and Iowa State. They haven't played all that great, but they have all that talent. Really just begging for someone to knock them off.

#15 Penn State (6-2, #18)
Anthony Morelli's playing well, but I have no confidence in him keeping that up. That said, he's been playing well, so I'll keep them up here until he assuredly proves me right.

#16 Wisconsin (6-2, #19)
Still a really good team. That run defense is still a question mark, but the overall level of play shows there's a lot to like.

#17 California (5-2, #10)
Still pretty much the best possible iteration of an archetype of a Pac 10 team - a bad defense makes every game a shootout, but that offense is good enough to make up for it 95% of the time. The OSU loss can be chalked up to Kevin Riley, but as for this week, well, that was part of the 5%.

#18 Boston College (7-0, #16)
Matt Ryan: Heisman frontrunner? Really? Oh, I forgot how great he was against ARMY.

#19 Alabama (6-2, --)
Huzzah, the offense showed signs of life. They almost definitely won't keep up the pace they did against Tennessee, but again, they showed signs of life, which means they're deserving of this ranking now.

#20 Illinois (5-3, #17)
Still a perfectly fine second-tier team. If their opponent has a good run defense, they'll likely be beaten. If not, watch out.

#21 Kansas (7-0, #25)
They're good! Not great, but very good.

#22 Virginia Tech (6-1, #21)
The second-best team in the ACC. I'm shocked it's worth a ranking this high.

#23 Georgia (5-2, #24)
Perfectly Fine Two Loss SEC Team.

#24 Rutgers (5-2, --)
That Ray Rice fellow is very good. Mike Teel's spotty, but the Knights are an all-around above-average team.

#25 Virginia (7-1, --)
They actually kicked the crap out of Maryland despite the final score. If they keep playing like that, they'll deserve that record.

Week 8 Recap

2007-10-21T23:30:00.000-04:00

#1 Ohio State 24, Michigan State 17
Dominating. For all the whining about Ohio State having an easy schedule (apparently teams beating each other is only allowed in the SEC), people seem to be ignoring that the Buckeyes are playing at the level a #1 team should. The OSU defense seems to be more or less at LSU levels, as they held a pretty good Michigan State offense to a paltry 185 yards. They were especially dominant against the Spartans' running game, as Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick combined for only 58 yards on 22 carries. And, oh yeah, that offense isn't half bad - Todd Boeckman went 15/23 for 193 and a 2/1 ratio, and Chris Wells ran for an insane 221 yards. The score means pretty much nothing here - MSU was able to return both of Ohio State's turnovers for touchdowns, and that's a fairly rare occurence. The Buckeyes are the only undefeated team that's played like one.
Ohio State: STOCK UP
Michigan State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#2 LSU 30, Auburn 24
Same story here to a lesser extent - the close score masks how much better the winning team played. Still, unlike Michigan State, Auburn was actually able to do something on offense, gaining almost 300 yards. The real noteworthy thing is that Auburn QB Brandon Cox actually seems to be a real quarterback now, as he had an excellent night - 18/28 (64.3%), 199 yards, 2 TD. Even if I don't think the Tigers...well, the Auburn Tigers, are overwhelmingly great, I'll bump them up a notch. LSU obviously no longer feels like the juggernaut they seemed to be at the beginning of the year, but they're still good enough to be favored against pretty much anyone.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Auburn: STOCK UP

#3 Oklahoma 17, Iowa State 7
Ew. Sam Bradford wasn't horrible, but was nowhere near as great as he's been, completing 57% for 183 and a pick. On the plus side for OU, DeMarco Murray was the most productive of the three primary backs, getting 6.6 yards per each of his 9 carries. Still, the offense as a whole was no great shakes, but on the plus side, the defense picked up the slack, even if part of that was just playing Iowa State. Bumping OU down a notch here - the CU game looked like a one-time thing, but this seems to proof OU can have off weeks.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#4 Oregon 55, Washington 34
Dennis Dixon didn't have the greatest game, but was solid - he completed 63% for 196 and a 1/1 ratio, and had 99 and a score on the ground. Then again, he didn't really have to do much - backup RB Andre Crenshaw had 113 and 2 touchdowns and, oh yeah, starter Jonathan Stewart had 251 yards and 2 scores of his own. As for U-Dub, Jake Locker isn't quite ready; while he had 257 and a 4/1 ratio, and ran for 78 yards, he completed less than 40% of his passes, which isn't too promising going forward. Still, if he progresses by the end of the year and during the offseason, he could wind up being Tim Tebow in '08. But, it's 2007, and probably another long year for the Huskies. As for Oregon, Dixon not getting any Heisman publicity is pretty amazing - he's way better than Matt fricking Ryan. I have some concerns about the Ducks D, but it's hard to complain when they're having huge days on offense, one way or the other.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK DOWN

#5 West Virginia 38, Mississippi State 13
Just what you'd expect, more or less. Pat White was efficient both by air and ground, WVU pretty much did as they pleased, Mississippi State wasn't awful, but really didn't do much. I like WVU as a team, but they've been kind of boring to write about for most of the year, outside of the USF game - things go pretty much as expected.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#6 Florida 45, #13 Kentucky 37
Only the two quarterbacks really mattered here. Tim Tebow went 18/26 for 256 and 4 TD, and added 78 and a score on the ground. Andre Woodson went 35/50 for 415 and 5 touchdowns. Yep. Really no surprises here - Kentucky's always been more of an all-offense, not so much-defense team, though this year they're legitimately good. Florida can also score with anyone, but that secondary remains a concern - they haven't improved quite as much as you'd like to see, though admittedly, Woodson's a top-tier QB.
Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Kentucky: STOCK NEUTRAL

Rutgers 30, #7 South Florida 27
This was almost completely thanks to Ray Rice, who had 181 yards on 39 carries. He overcame a horrible night by RU QB Mike Teel, who only completed 38% for 179 yards, but did manage 2 TDs out of that. As for USF, things were kind of flat; QB Matt Grothe was a one man show, leading the team on the ground with 58 yards and a score, but only completed 50% of his passes en route to 247 and a 1/1 ratio. Those are fine passing numbers, but without a consistent running game, it's thoroughly beatable, as it was here. Really, the difference was USF's surprising inability to contain Rice - the Bulls run D played well against Steve Slaton and UCF's Kevin Smith. If the USF D plays half as well as they did in those games, USF wins this one fairly handily. Rutgers are what they are - an above-average team, though Teel's performance shows they have flaws. I'll knock USF down a notch, mostly since if that defense isn't as consistently good as they'd previously appeared, they fall quite a bit back to the middle of the Big East pack.
Rutgers: STOCK NEUTRAL
South Florida: STOCK DOWN

#8 Missouri 41, #20 Texas Tech 10
Well, I expected half of that score. Chase Daniel had a good night, completing 74%, even if it was only 13/19 for 210 and a 1/1 ratio. But really, he didn't need to put on a show, as a gaggle of Missouri backs outrushed Texas Tech 212 to negative 9. Yep. As for Tech, Graham Harrell had nice peripherals as usual - 44/69 (63.8%), 397 yards - but only had one touchdown and got picked off 4 times. TTU gets knocked down a notch since that offense has now proven to be stoppable, and I'm getting more and more bullish on Mizzou - if the Tigers actually have a quasi-credible defense to go with that offense, hoo boy.
Missouri: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK DOWN

#9 USC 38, Notre Dame 0
Well then. The game USC should've had against Arizona - Mark Sanchez went 21-of-38 for 235 and 4 TD, and that really sums it up. USC seems to be back, if they ever even left. Notre Dame remains bad.
USC: STOCK UP
Notre Dame: STOCK NEUTRAL

UCLA 30, #10 California 21
Cal wasn't all too bad - Nate Longshore had 3 picks, but he had 232 yards and 3 touchdowns on 65% passing. Justin Forsett was somewhat shut down though, getting only 76 yards on 25 carries. UCLA looked good - Khalil Bell ran for 142 yards, and Pat Cowan completed two thirds of his passes for 161 and a TD. Still, given UCLA's perpetual Jekyll and Hyde act, this means little going forward.
UCLA: STOCK NEUTRAL
California: STOCK NEUTRAL

Vanderbilt 17, #11 South Carolina 6
Not overly surprising - SC's been skating on thin ice as of late, and Vandy was due to play like was expected in the preseason. A pretty even game statistically, with Gamecocks QB Chris Smelley's 2 picks being the difference. Nobody played too great, nobody played too awfully. SC remains an above-average team in the SEC, but I'll move Vandy a notch up for showing something, if more on defense than offense.
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL

#14 Texas 31, Baylor 10
I was expecting a dominant win that wouldn't mean much, much like UT's beating of Iowa State last week; this game wound up being much more of a mixed bag. Colt McCoy sums up said mixed bag - he completed 74% for 293 yards, but only a 1/2 ratio. Yawn. Texas isn't confidence-inspiring at all, but they're talented.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Baylor: STOCK NEUTRAL

#15 Michigan 27, #17 Illinois 17
Michigan more or less shut down the run, holding the Illini to only 137 yards on the ground, so that was pretty much that. Chad Henne was in and out due to injury, and he looked fairly good when he was in - 70% passing for 201 and a 2/1 ratio. Mike Hart was out, but Carlos Brown led those who picked up the slack with 113 yards. The game in and of itself doesn't mean much, but that the Wolverines could win a game against Hart, especially facing one of their bigger tests of the year, bodes extremely well.
Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL

#18 Penn State 36, Indiana 21
ANTHONY MORELLI PLAYED LIKE AN ACTUAL QUARTERBACK! 22/32, 195 yards, 2/1 ratio. Kellen Lewis played pretty dang well for Indiana too, going 30/48 for 318 and 3 TD. Really, the difference was Penn State's ability to stop the run - IU only gained 68 yards on the ground, while the Nittany Lions running backs got theirs. Indiana's still a perfectly fine team, while Penn State's somewhat of a puzzle. Morelli hasn't looked too bad lately, but I'm still nowhere near being relieved.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Indiana: STOCK NEUTRAL

#19 Wisconsin 44, Northern Illinois 3
Wisconsin's had a suspect run defense - NIU was held to negative 13 on the ground and 99 overall. This means nothing for Wisconsin, since NIU's a strong contender for one of the worst five teams in the nation.
Wisconsin: STOCK NEUTRAL
Northern Illinois: STOCK DOWN

Alabama 41, #22 Tennessee 17
That margin's way more surprising than the result. Erik Ainge wasn't too bad: 22/35, 243 yards, 1/1 ratio. The big shock was that Bama didn't score so much through the running game (though Terry Grant had 104 and a score), but that John Parker Wilson completed 70% of his passes for 363 and 3 TD. Even though Tennessee's secondary is quite suspect, I'll bump Alabama up if only for its offense showing signs of life. Tennessee's a decent SEC team - nothing more, nothing less, more or less.
Alabama: STOCK UP
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL

Pittsburgh 24, #23 Cincinnati 17
Really. But the score about reflects the game, as Pitt played slightly better. Also helping the Panthers cause was some turnover karma affecting the Bearcats - Cincy gave up 2 fumbles after benefiting from much the same from opposing offenses. Pitt seems to be a much-improved team with original starting RB LaRod Stephens-Howling back. Him and LaSean McCoy combined for 237 yards on 38 carries, enough to make up for any mistakes freshman QB Pat Bostick might've made. And Bostick's improving as well - he only had 167 yards and a 1/1 ratio, but was fairly accurate, completing 62% of his attempts. Cincy falls back to the Big East pack, and there's reasons for optimism in Pittsburgh, although who knows if a Dave Wannstedt-led team will fulfill them.
Pittsburgh: STOCK UP
Cincinnati: STOCK DOWN

#25 Kansas 19, Colorado 14
Meh. An even game, and one CU easily could've won had they done more on the ground. KU QB Todd Reesing was fine, completing 69% for 153 and a TD, and led the team in rushing with 84 yards, more than Colorado's entire ground output. Cody Hawkins wasn't half-bad for the Buffaloes - he completed 61.4% of his passes for 287 yards, but only had a 2/2 ratio. It doesn't look like Kansas should be a title contender, but they're a perfectly above-average team, probably behind only Missouri in the Big 12 North. Colorado's uninspiringly decent.
Kansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL

Arkansas 44, Mississippi 8
Hoo boy. Ole Miss's offense, which hadn't looked half bad, absolutely imploded this week, with QB Seth Adams having an awful 9/21, 79 yard, 4 INT line. Arkansas looked good - the running backs dominated as expected, and Casey Dick actually completed 65% of his passes for a 3/1 ratio, if only 96 yards. A good performance by the Razorbacks, but it's unclear what this really means - probably nothing regarding Arkansas's ability to beat better SEC teams, which is probably pretty low.
Arkansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi: STOCK DOWN

Middle Tennessee State 24, Arkansas State 7
Noteworthy for Arkansas State's complete implosion, as an offense that looked pretty good against Tennessee and Texas among other teams had only 138 total yards. Huh.
Middle Tennessee State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas State: STOCK DOWN

Boise State 45, Louisiana Tech 31
A pretty even game, and I'm not sure what conclusion to reach. Much like the Nevada game, this has done a lot to suggest Boise's closer to the rest of the WAC rather than being the dominant #1 team. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive this year. Good for them.
Boise State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisiana Tech: STOCK UP

Clemson 70, Central Michigan 14
!!!! Just felt the need to point out that score. Oh, if only it meant absolutely anything going forward.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL
Central Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL

Colorado State 48, UNLV 23
HALLELUJAH! CSU won this one mostly due to 5 turnovers, as giving up 559 yards didn't help the Rams cause. Still, COLORADO STATE HAS WON A GAME! HURRAH!
Colorado State: STOCK NEUTRAL
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL

Connecticut 21, Louisville 17
Wow. Probably the biggest win in UConn history, and short of a blowout, this is the most impressive way the Huskies could've won. The defense shut down the Louisville offense as much as you can - Brian Brohm was accurate (70.7%) and had a decent 228 yards, but the Huskies D got 2 picks while giving up only 1 touchdown through the air. And perhaps more importantly for a team in a running back's conference, UConn held a pretty good Louisville running game to only 93 yards. While UConn's offense mostly held pace with Louisville's, they didn't look overly impressive - the opening drive was marred by mistakes, and things just kind of stalled out in places. Still, backup RB Andre Dixon, now the primary back with Donald Brown's injuries, looks like a star in making, as he had 115 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. QB Tyler Lorenzen was passable - he was 9/18 for 130 and a TD, and added 56 yards on the ground. Still, it's encouraging that the Huskies were able to win a game against an offense like this while their own offense wasn't running on all cylinders. If the defense plays like this going forward, especially against the run, UConn suddenly looks like a team that could go 6-1 in the conference (West Virginia's the only offense I'm not sure they can contain), and yes, with some breaks, even get the automatic BCS bid. And, frankly, getting USF and Rutgers at home for their next two games helps towards that end. Of course, even if the defense keeps things up, the offense will likely have to be consistently better in order to win every game needed for that scenario. So, yeah - I bump UConn up since they now look like a legitimate contender, and I'll take Louisville down a notch. That offense is still very good, but they no longer seem that elite.
Connecticut: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

Miami 37, Florida State 29
Yawwwwn. FSU RB Antone Smith (22 car, 114 yards) was the only player on offense worth talking about. Otherwise, this was an exercise in field goals and defensive touchdowns. Two boring teams that still have no consistent offense but can win on talent. YAWWWWWWWWN.
Miami: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida State: STOCK NEUTRAL

North Dakota State 27, Minnesota 21
The result? Wholly unsurprising. But check out NDSU running back Tyler Roehl's line: 22 carries, 263 yards, 1 TD. ...wow.
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN

Texas A&M 36, Nebraska 14
NEBRASKA'S DEFENSE IS VERY BAD. Thought you should know. And laugh at them.
Texas A&M: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nebraska: STOCK NEUTRAL

Tulane 41, SMU 38 (OT)
Thought I should mention the line of Tulane RB Matt Forte, who is a beast: 38 carries, 342 yards, 4 TD. Tulane's been surprisingly competitive; SMU's been surprisingly inept.
Tulane: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK DOWN

Week 8 Preview: Saturday and Sunday

2007-10-18T22:59:00.000-04:00

With the UConn game already previewed, I had to put this sentence from rivals.com's Big East rundown here, since I can think of nothing that sums up UConn football more than this sentence:

Police urged Connecticut fans to allow more time for their commute to Rentschler Field for Friday's game against Louisville, not because of the crowd anticipated for the game but because of the opening of a massive outdoor sporting goods store nearby.

Perfect.

SATURDAY
12:00 PM

#18 Penn State (5-2) @ Indiana (5-2)
This would've been much more of a toss-up had PSU not looked so impressive in beating Wisconsin last week, and had Indiana not imploded against Michigan State. As with pretty much any Nittany Lions opponent, Indiana has a chance here if Anthony Morelli implodes like he has many times during the year. Still, even though IU QB Kellen Lewis seems to be one of the fastest-improving players in the conference, if he couldn't handle Michigan State's D, I doubt the Hoosiers will do much against that stout Penn State unit.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence (out of 5): 2

Northern Illinois (1-6) @ #19 Wisconsin (5-2)
I don't really get why people are so down on the Badgers recently - the run defense is a liability, but there's still a lot to like. I guess NIU could possibly run enough times and well enough to somehow win it, but it's been a horrible season and the Huskies haven't shown enough offense to beat most other MAC teams, let alone a team like Wisconsin.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4

#23 Cincinnati (6-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-4)
Cincy's a beatable team, and Pitt has some upside, but since Dave Wannstedt's Achilles injury didn't take him out for the game, I just can't pick the Panthers.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3

Army (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (4-3)
Tech seems like one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth. Well, it's definitely worth being able to beat Army easy at home.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 5

Central Michigan (4-3) @ Clemson (4-2)
CMU seems to have gotten their act together, so they could actually pose a threat if the Bad Clemson shows up, as it's tended to lately. However, the Tigers will be facing a MAC defense, so figure on either QB Cullen Harper or the RB duo of Davis and Spiller to have a huge day and let Clemson win comfortably.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2

Iowa (3-4) @ Purdue (5-2)
Iowa kind of showed signs of life, being able to stop the run enough against Illinois to win; but then again, the Illini are a run-dependent team and Juice Williams was actually accurate if not overly productive. Purdue's still relatively unproven, but they've shown a pretty good passing game if nothing else; even if they only put up twentysomething points, I don't think Iowa's offense will be able to follow suit.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3

Miami of Ohio (4-3) @ Temple (2-5)
Miami of Ohio completely smacked the crap out of Bowling Green in an unexpected manner, while Temple has a good day beating a sliding Akron team. Given the MAC's unpredictable nature, and that the RedHawks look like a MAC contender...
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1

North Dakota State @ Minnesota (1-6)
NDSU's the #1 team in I-AA at the moment, and absolutely beat the hell out of Central Michigan earlier this year. Looking at their stats shows a passing offense that is accurate if not amazingly productive, so the Bison are fully capable of exploiting that Minnesota D. I typically don't pick I-AA teams to win, so I'll assume the Gophers will somehow pull it out, but if there ever was a game that screamed out to me that it'd happen, this would be the one.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 1

12:30 PM

#3 Oklahoma (6-1) @ Iowa State (1-6)
And now playing Seneca Wallace, Bret Meyer! This'll be a smashing.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5

Vanderbilt (3-3) @ #11 South Carolina (6-1)
SC's a very good team, but seems like a prime upset candidate - good not great, just kind of chugging along not all that impressively. However, Vandy hasn't really lived up to expectations - if they play up to their talent, they could pull off the win, but they haven't really shown that thus far this season. And since they haven't, I won't pick them.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3

#14 Texas (5-2) @ Baylor (3-4)
Much like Iowa State was, this should be an impressive win for Texas that means absolutely nothing. Well, bowl eligibility, but that's it.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5

#22 Tennessee (4-2) @ Alabama (5-2)
Alabama's probably the more talented team, but the Crimson Tide have been amazingly unimpressive starting with the Florida State loss. They've shown pretty much nothing against Houston and Ole Miss, but again, there's the talent there where they could rebound with a shitkicking at any moment. That said, I'll give the Vols the edge here - if Alabama had been consistently shutting down the pass, I'd give it to the Tide, but Erik Ainge is fully capable of putting this one out of reach, especially if the Bama running game disappoints. But really, this could go either way.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 1

1:00 PM

Wake Forest (4-2) @ Navy (4-2)
Wake's a perfectly average team, which will make some noise in the perfectly average ACC. Navy's Navy - they'll run for a lot of yards and points, and this year the defense is suspect enough to let any team in it. I'll say that Navy pulls it off based on absolutely no evidence except my gut, which is also hungry.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1

2:00 PM

Wyoming (4-2) @ Air Force (5-2)
The Alphabetical Bookend Bowl. The MWC's quite paritytastic this year, and Wyoming looked like the favorite in the conference before being brought back to earth last week against New Mexico. So, who knows. AFA's 3-1 in Mountain West play, so they've looked good, but Wyoming's win over Virginia is the best either team has on their resume. I've been higher on Wyoming throughout the year so I'll give the edge to the Cowboys, but really, this is a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1

Arkansas (3-3) @ Mississippi (2-5)
I think Arkansas has reached the point where one has to ask "Is Darren McFadden enough?" I thought he would be to win games like this, but Ole Miss has been more competitive than expected, and Arkansas QB Casey Dick has shown absolutely no signs of allowing the Razorbacks to be competitive in a shootout. I'll give McFadden the benefit of the doubt in carrying Arkansas to a win here, despite his horrible performance last week; however, as far as the SEC goes, this one may be pretty much it.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1

Ball State (4-3) @ Western Michigan (3-4)
WMU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, even if the Broncos are showing faint signs of life. As for Ball State, their loss to Central Michigan looks better now that CMU seems to have gotten their act together, and that offense is quite good. Anything can happen with the MAC, but I'll give the edge to who appears to be the better team.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1

2:05 PM

Texas A&M (5-2) @ Nebraska (4-3)
TAMU's a running team, so Nebraska may not hemorrhage passing yardage like they have been, but they haven't shown much of an ability to stop the run either. I guess there's the possibility that Nebraska can win a shootout, but if OK State did what they did to the Huskers, I can't see the Aggies doing much worse.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2

3:00 PM

Memphis (2-4) @ Rice (1-5)
Rice showed signs of life against the Houston D, but that still brings them from "worst team in I-A" contender up to, like, somewhere in the top five. Memphis is disappointing, but at least they don't appear to be outright bad.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 2

3:05 PM

Nevada (2-4) @ Utah State (0-6)
Nevada is way better than that record, as their high-powered offense and taking Boise to OT showed. Utah State is...not.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4

3:30 PM

Michigan State (5-2) @ #1 Ohio State (7-0)
The upset could quite well happen, especially if Michigan State plays as well as they did in their stomping of Indiana last week. The only big question mark is how MSU back Javon Ringer will do against the OSU run defense, which ranks a stout #2 in the nation behind BC. Of course, the thing is that Ringer is BY FAR the best back OSU's faced to date, behind...Jerod Void?, so there's a chicken/egg situation. Plus Michigan State's defense hasn't been all too wonderful, so even if the Buckeyes D can only slow, not stop Ringer, OSU should be able to put up enough points to win. But of course, this year, if an upset can happen, there's a very good chance it will.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1

Mississippi State (4-3) @ #5 West Virginia (5-1)
I'm not exactly sure how Mississippi State got 4 wins. Well, weak schedule and luck, duh. But anyway, WVU should put up a whole bunch of points, and MSU ain't keepin' pace.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4

#6 Florida (4-2) @ #13 Kentucky (6-1)
Much like LSU was a good matchup for Kentucky, I think Florida is quite a bad one for the Wildcats. Florida's probably a better team on both sides of the ball, and the most certain thing in this game is that Florida will score their fair share of points against a Kentucky D that, while better than expected, probably can't handle an offense like the Gators'. And even in a shootout, even though I think Woodson may be a better QB than Tebow (and even if so, barely), I would trust the Florida defense to come up with the difference-making INT or two than the other way around.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3

#20 Texas Tech (6-1) @ #8 Missouri (5-1)
POINTS!!!! Missouri's the better overall team, but in a shootout like this should degenerate to, it doesn't really matter. Still, I'll give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt since they did THAT to Nebraska, who's essentially a worse Texas Tech, and probably not 35 points worth of deficit worse.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1

#9 USC (5-1) @ Notre Dame (1-6)
If this isn't a rebound win for USC that borders on an ugly blowout, then I just don't know anymore.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4

#10 California (5-1) @ UCLA (4-2)
UCLA's a hard team to pin down - they can look explosive at times, but they're just so...disappointingly UCLAish. Still, if Nate Longshore is back at full strength, Cal should win fairly easily in what could become a shootout. If Kevin Riley's in, I still give Cal the edge, but it could essentially go either way. So I'll split the difference. LOGIC.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2

Arkansas State (3-3) @ Middle Tennessee State (2-5)
ASU has a somewhat inexplicable loss to ULM (given how the Warhawks have performed otherwise this year), but have looked better by far than MTSU most of the year. Still, they're two teams who have pretty good offenses, so this could turn into a shootout that goes either way. Hooray the Sun Belt.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1

Miami (4-3) @ Florida State (4-2)
Oh jeez. A team that's sometimes good, sometimes bad at a team that's consistently meh. Florida State just bores me - they'll probably win 7 to 9 games, but they don't really do it on the basis of anything in particular - they're just kind of overall good enough. If Miami's offense shows up, they can beat "good enough", if it doesn't, expect an absolutely exciting 10-3 Florida State win. I'll go with the consistent team at home, but god, yawn.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1

North Texas (1-5) @ Troy (4-2)
Well, UNT got a win, so all that yardage led to something. If Troy manages to lose this one, picking games in the Sun Belt is officially useless.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4

4:00 PM

Bowling Green (3-3) @ Kent State (3-4)
Oh who the hell knows. Kent State seems like the better overall team, if not by much, though BGSU seems to have the best offense, and has the biggest win between the two in Minnesota. I'll give the home team the edge, why the hell not.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1

Buffalo (3-4) @ Syracuse (1-6)
Wow, I'm actually doing it. One of these teams is passable, one of these teams is bad. I'm actually giving it to the better playing team, which is
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1

Tulsa (4-2) @ Central Florida (3-3)
An intriguing one. Gus Malzahn's offense has taken, and Tulsa's starting to put up some crazy yardage and scoring numbers. However, UCF's Kevin Smith is probably the best player on the field, as he was the NCAA's rushing leader before being shut down by South Florida last week. Still, for all that, when I look at how offenses as a whole are doing, Tulsa seems to have a clear edge - this could go either way, but I see Kevin Smith getting his and Tulsa winning a 49-34 game or something like that.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1

4:30 PM

NC State (1-5) @ East Carolina (4-3)
Ehhhh. NCSU's somewhat unlucky, and ECU's lucky, so this is kind of a crapshoot. Oh what the hell, I'll say NC State finally starts turning this around, because come on, they're not THAT bad and these things should eventually even out.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1

5:00 PM

Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (1-6)
FAU's a team that can compete with pretty much anyone except the Kentuckys, Oklahoma States, Texas Techs of the world - the guys with the crazy high powered offenses. ULL is not one of those teams.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3

San Jose State (3-4) @ Fresno State (4-2)
Could be a neat little matchup - SJSU's had some big offensive days against the suspect defenses of the WAC. Unfortunately, Fresno seems like a legitimate team. SJSU has more of a chance than those two sentences suggest, but still - the Bulldogs should be the clear favorite.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2

5:30 PM

#25 Kansas (6-0) @ Colorado (4-3)
Kansas didn't really prove they were overrated or underrated against Kansas State, so...who knows with the Jayhawks. I'll give their apparently high-powered offense the edge, even if this is probably the best defense KU has faced to date. Hooray question marks!
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 1

Eastern Washington @ Brigham Young (4-2)
Well, at least this is easy to pick. But I'm so disappointed in you, BYU.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 5

7:00 PM

Stanford (2-4) @ Arizona (2-5)
This really could go either way, as both teams are prone to having very bad weeks. It's just that Arizona's other weeks are good, while Stanford's are more...mediocre.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2

Boise State (5-1) @ Louisiana Tech (2-4)
Louisiana Tech's very much more at the New Mexico State level than the Nevada level. This likely won't be pretty.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5

Florida International (0-6) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-5)
ULM hasn't lived up to preseason expectations, but they still should be way better than FIU, who has lived up to expectations that they'd be the worst team in I-A with flying colors.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3

Houston (3-3) @ UAB (2-4)
UAB hasn't been quite as awful as expected, but I doubt they'll be able to handle Houston. The Cougars offense has days where they're as high-powered as ever, and if this is one, it could get ugly. And if not...it could still get somewhat ugly.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4

Ohio (3-4) @ Toledo (2-5)
Toledo's not all that bad - they're a perfectly average MAC team that could've used a break or two. While Ohio is...also a perfectly average MAC team. I'll give to the home team, because when in doubt, guess that the MAC will be as annoyingly parity-filled as possible.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 1

7:05 PM

Kansas State (4-2) @ Oklahoma State (4-3)
OK State seems to be over their early-season doldrums, which actually makes this interesting. I view the KSU defense as not good enough to stop OK State from scoring a good amount of points and making this a shootout, and I don't think K-State has the horses to run (or pass) with the Cowboys.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1

7:30 PM

#4 Oregon (5-1) @ Washington (2-4)
Washington's slowly sliding, and if the Huskies got beaten that easily by Arizona State, hoo boy. Though I have a weird gut feeling this'll be an upset, all rational thought says the Ducks will kick the shit out of U-Dub.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3

8:00 PM

#15 Michigan (5-2) @ #17 Illinois (5-2)
This could very well wind up being a Michigan blowout that doesn't accurately reflect Illinois's talent level. I say that because based on the Purdue game, Michigan's back to being insanely great against the run. And what does Illinois do? Uh oh.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3

Idaho (1-6) @ New Mexico State (3-4)
NMSU's been disappointing, as they've been part of the WAC second-class rather than having a breakthrough year. Still, there seems to be enough there where they should at least beat the Idahos of the conference. I hope. C'mon, the Aggies can pass.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2

Virginia (6-1) @ Maryland (4-2)
Virginia just kind of keeps scraping by fairly unimpressively, while Maryland's more or less deserved to win when they've done so. For a change. UMD's probably the better team, but the matchup is in UVA's favor - they should be able to neutralize the run, and I'm not quite sold on Chris Turner being a QB that cane take over a game just yet. Still, I could be proven wrong.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1

Tulane (1-5) @ SMU (1-5)
Tulane's been more competitive than expected, while SMU's...kind of depressed me in what I expected to be a breakout year. Both teams are still suspect enough where this could go either way, but Tulane RB Matt Forte's been great enough that he can carry the Green Wave to a win here.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1

8:30 PM

New Mexico (4-2) @ San Diego State (2-4)
SDSU's one of the weak sisters of the league. Not that that means much with the MWC's parity, but since UNM beat Wyoming pretty handily, they should be able to take a team that, if nothing else, seems a good deal worse than Wyoming.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2

9:00 PM

Auburn (5-2) @ #2 LSU (6-1)
Uh, yeah. Auburn's fine, but they're not all that great. Even if Brandon Cox has improved legitimately, I don't think this'll be a game where that'll be apparent at all.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4

Colorado State (0-6) @ UNLV (2-5)
You can do it, Colorado State. Come on. They're not all that bad a team, they just keep losing fairly close. They gotta beat a I-A team, right, and this is their best chance. Come on.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1

SUNDAY
8:00 PM

Southern Miss (3-3) @ Marshall (0-6)
Kind of the same situation as CSU - Marshall should've gotten a win somewhere along the way. Still, Southern Miss is far from a UNLV - while the Golden Eagles have been quite a disappointment this year, they still have enough talent where they should win this one.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3

Week 8 Preview: Thursday and Friday

2007-10-15T20:56:00.000-04:00

THURSDAY
7:30 PM

#7 South Florida (6-0) @ Rutgers (4-2)
The UCF win established USF as legit national title contenders, yes, but they're far from a dominant favorite against teams like Rutgers, especially on the road. Still, this isn't too favorable a matchup for the Scarlet Knights - they're a team whose offensive catalyst is their running back, Ray Rice, and we saw with the UCF game, and frankly, the West Virginia game, how USF can slow down if not completely shut down an excellent back. On the plus side, RU QB Mike Teel is better than who UCF had at the position, but then again, UCF lost 64-12.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 2

8:00 PM

Utah (4-3) @ TCU (4-3)
Still somewhat shaky on the Utes - they've improved exponentially from their horrible start, but one chance to make a first impression, etc. etc. TCU's been pretty inconsistent, looking average sometimes, and...slightly above average other times. TCU's been slightly better, so I'll give them the slight nod based on preseason bias and homefield.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1

FRIDAY
7:00 PM

Northwestern (4-3) @ Eastern Michigan (2-5)
Oh come on now. When Northwestern was scuffling a few weeks ago, this might've had some intrigue, but Northwestern's been putting up MACtastic high offensive numbers against defenses much better than EMU's, an actual MAC one. Well, Eastern Michigan's may be better than Minnesota's, but still.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 4

8:00 PM

Louisville (4-3) @ Connecticut (5-1)
I'd like to give more analysis for my beloved Huskies, but it really comes down, like most Louisville games, to if the Cardinals defense shows up or not. Still, the UConn D also hasn't faced an offense nearly as good as UL's, so I'll give Louisville the edge since they could possibly win in a shootout too.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 7

2007-10-15T20:27:00.000-04:00

#1 Ohio State (7-0, #2 last week)
Perhaps a bit untested, yes, but they've been dominating their schedule like a #1-worthy team should. Pretty much the same story as LSU - that defense is frightening, and that offense'll made do 90% of the time.

#2 LSU (6-1, #1)
They're still really really good. As I said, Kentucky's the type of team that can give them trouble, but let's not forget their complete annihilations of Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and even a not half bad Mississippi State team.

#3 Oklahoma (6-1, #3)
By the end of the year, this team could be amazingly frightening. That defense is excellent, if not quite at the level of the two teams above, and that offense is young enough to get much better. If the Colorado loss was more bad luck than the complete abberation in performance that it was, the Sooners would have a chance for one of the top two spots.

#4 Oregon (5-1, #6)
Had one hell of a re-establishing win, smoking a Washington State team that isn't going anywhere, but it is way better than THAT. With the Cal game one fluke fumble away from being a tie, Oregon's easily the most impressive, and probably at the moment the only elite, team in the Pac 10, and the Michigan game looks even better now.

#5 West Virginia (5-1, #4)
Steve Slaton or Pat White did not die during their bye week.

#6 Florida (4-2, #5)
Tim Tebow either.

#7 South Florida (6-0, #11)
Damn. Re-established themselves after a suspect effort against FAU quite nicely; by smoking Central Florida, they've gone from a very good team that can beat other very good teams to a team that could beat anyone in the country when they're on.

#8 Missouri (5-1, #10)
I'm not bumping Missouri down for proving that they are, in fact, a top-ten team. They just happened to play a top-five one.

#9 USC (5-1, #7)
Lurking down here until they show something more. As much talent as anyone, but they just seem like they're coasting.

#10 California (5-1, #9)
They obviously deserved to take Oregon State to OT, so I can't fault them too much. Otherwise, same old, same old; that defense is amazingly suspect, but if Nate Longshore's at QB, him and the receiving corps are elite enough to win any shootout.

#11 South Carolina (6-1, #8)
They're good. Pretty good. Prettay...prettay good. A good enough team to win every game here on out, but they haven't been all that impressive lately - nothing much to get excited about.

#12 Arizona State (7-0, #16)
Another team that had a re-establishing win; the Sun Devils just curbstomped Washington. The schedule so far's been both fairly weak and mostly at home, so there's still questions. But they've been more impressive than, say...oh wait, BC isn't next. Disregard that.

#13 Kentucky (6-1, --)
Hey, they proved themselves. I don't think they're an elite team, but they're more like Cal - that offense is good enough to make sure they can hang with anyone, and that defense'll make do.

#14 Texas (5-2, #12)
They were another shaky team with a big win, but they're hut by having two losses rather than one. Plus it was against Iowa State. They could win every game from here on out, or they could wind up with 3 to 5 losses.

#15 Michigan (5-2, --)
They're back, and they're pretty easily the #2 team in the Big Ten at the moment. They're not quite elite as expected in the preseason, but they're more than capable of beating Ohio State, as long as Chad Henne keeps playing well. Week in, week out, Mike Hart's almost definitely the best player in the country.

#16 Boston College (7-0, #15)
Meh. They haven't done anything yet to disprove that they're simply an 8-4 team that happens to have a bunch of 6-6 and under teams on their schedule.

#17 Illinois (5-2, #13)
Still quite one-dimensional, but that's good enough. Once again, if Juice Williams improves, look out.

#18 Penn State (5-2, #23)
With an actual quarterback, they'd be top-ten, top-five worthy. Come on, can't they trade?

#19 Wisconsin (5-2, #14)
The run defense is slowly going from "weakness" to "detriment" to "Nebraska."

#20 Texas Tech (6-1, --)
This is one of the up years. Graham Harrell, both the first multi-year starter at TTU in a while and the first actual high-talent QB in Mike Leach's system, is putting up the type of insane year - 258/347 (74.4%), 3153 yards, 31/3 TD/INT - that was expected of Colt Brennan. As a junior!

#21 Virginia Tech (6-1, #17)
Well, they finally showed the form expected in the preseason. Against Duke.

#22 Tennessee (4-2, --)
Playing well at the moment. Playing the best of any of the teams in that glut in the center of the SEC. Which is good enough for top 25 at the moment. Yeeeeep.

#23 Cincinnati (6-1, #19)
Another decently above-average team there's not much to say about. The Louisville game could've gone either way, but outside of almost-definite wins against Pitt and Cuse, that can be said about any Big East game involving the Bearcats. They should be the favorites against Rutgers and UConn, though.

#24 Georgia (5-2, #20)
Playing quite uninspiring ball at the moment. The running game's up to the challenge, gotta see more from QB Stafford or the defense.

#25 Kansas (6-0, #25)
They're hanging from a precipice here after not looking all too great against Baylor. So very untested.

Week 7 Recap

2007-10-15T10:23:00.000-04:00

Kentucky 43, #1 LSU 37 (3 OT)
Well then. First, I'll state the obvious in such a game like this: it was a pretty even matchup. Yes, really. Really, things kind of played out like I expected - if nothing else, Kentucky has a good enough offense to put up a decent amount of points, even against the LSU defense (which they did), and if the LSU offense has a bad night (which Matt Flynn did), they could easily scuffle enough for a Kentucky win. Which they did. But I'll refrain from tooting my own horn. Well, any moreso. The really odd thing here is that I figured a Kentucky win would also include an excellent performance by QB Andre' Woodson - in fact, he had a pretty mediocre night, completing only 55% for 250 yards and an unspectacular 3/2 TD/INT ratio. And it leads to somewhat of an odd thing with the Heisman race - being the star player for a team with a huge win like this would theoretically make him the frontrunner, but again, he didn't have that great of a game. However, Darren McFadden had even WORSE of a game, so...who knows. On the LSU side, they were able to run the ball fine, 4th downs in overtime notwithstanding, the problem was mostly the spotty play of Matt Flynn, who couldn't break a 50% completion percentage and only had 130 yards. As for my perceptions of the two teams, LSU remains fairly steady even though they take a slight drop down - they're still one of the elite teams in the country, but my confidence in Matt Flynn has weakened, and honestly, there's just a natural perception difference between "beatable" and "beaten." As for Kentucky, I probably would've nudged them into my top 25 even if they had two straight losses; playing South Carolina close helped a huge amount in me seeing them as a competitive team, and with this win, they've obviously cemented themselves as a team that deserves at 8-4ish season or so, if not better. THIS YEAR IS CRAZY.
Kentucky: STOCK UP
LSU: STOCK DOWN

#2 Ohio State 48, Kent State 3
Not quite that one-sided, but nowhere near competitive. Todd Boeckman was quite efficient here, going for 81% for 184 yards and 2 TD, and this game was over early enough that something called Rob Schoenhoft was not only able to get off 9 attempts, but complete 7 of them. Some of the luster's gone off the win against Washington now, but the Buckeyes keep on keepin' on and seem as good as anyone, especially this year.
Ohio State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Kent State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#3 Oklahoma 41, #10 Missouri 31
Pretty much a win/win, as both teams played up to their level and OU came out slightly ahead. Missouri wasn't able to do much on the ground without Tony Temple, but Chase Daniel pretty much proved his legitimacy by going 37-for-47 (78.7%) for 361 yards, even if he only had a 1/2 ratio. OU's struggles against Colorado seem like a thing of the past; Sam Bradford was outstanding again, going 24/34 for 266 and 2 TD, and running back Chris Brown said "Run It!" (I'm so fucking clever.) and did so for 67 yards and 3 TD. OU established themselves as fully recovered, while Missouri proved they are in fact a legitimate upper-tier team.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL

#6 Oregon 53, Washington State 7
Holy shit! Just flatout dominance - Dennis Dixon completed 75% en route to 287 and 3 TD, running back Jeremiah Johnson had 4 runs for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns, the defense held Wazzou's Alex Brink under 50%, just...dang. Oregon seems to remain the forgotten national title contender.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington State: STOCK DOWN

#7 USC 20, Arizona 13
Um. A pretty awful performance by the Trojans at a time when you think they'd have a fire lit underneath them, because unlike their recent close games, this one was as close as the score. Replacement USC QB Mark Sanchez wasn't that good or that bad - he completed 62%, but only had 130 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Arizona's Willie Tuitama was able to do well against the Trojans secondary, nearing a 70% completion percentage, but any chance at a Wildcats upset was hurt badly by their complete lack of a running back, as they only had 22 yards on the ground. I'm exceedingly close to knock the Trojans down a notch, but I'll refrain from doing so due to their track record. The dynasty (of...one national title) may be over sooner than expected.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK NEUTRAL

#8 South Carolina 21, North Carolina 15
An odd one. There's nothing really to complain about with South Carolina, but things just feel...underwhelming. The Gamecocks ran the ball well, QB Chris Smelley looked good (65.4%, 172 yards, 3/1 ratio), the defense held UNC's TJ Yates to 52% and a 1/2 ratio, but...ehhh. Part of it might be that the Tar Heels had a lot of yardage, but again, with Yates not being all that great, it's more a case of UNC having a large quantity of passes thrown rather than any sort of quality playing. I'll keep the Gamecocks steady, but they really don't feel like a title contender. I'll also bump UNC up finally, since they've been much more competitive than expected, even if they're still probably #11 in the ACC.
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
North Carolina: STOCK UP

Oregon State 31, #9 California 28
Well, I expected Cal would lose sometime, but...not in that matter. Cal obviously deserved to take it to overtime before replacement QB Kevin Riley's stupidity, and probably would've won this, possibly big, had them had Nate Longshore. Really not much to say about the Bears - they were the better team, but mistakes mostly attributable to Riley kept the Beaves in it. As for OSU, the Beavers looked much better here then they have at other times. Sean Canfield had a solid performance, and Yvenson Bernard's probably the most underrated back in the nation. Him or someone that's not coming to mind that's just as good, which would obviously make that person more underrated.
Oregon State: STOCK UP
California: STOCK NEUTRAL

#11 South Florida 64, Central Florida 12
Just a bit off in predicting the upset here. Just the game the Bulls needed - Matt Grothe was back in freshman form (that means he was better), putting up 212 and 2 scores on 54% passing, and leading the team in rushing as he often did, going for 100 and 2 more scores on the ground. The defense was also outstanding, holding TWO Central Florida QBs under 50%, and holding the nation's leading rusher, Kevin Smith, to only 55 yards. A thoroughly legitimizing win - the Bulls have gone from one of the best teams to simply not lose a game to a team that, if they get there, could concievably show up and win the national title game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Central Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL

#12 Texas 56, Iowa State 3
Kind of like the USF win, but without really meaning anything. Colt McCoy returned to 2006 form, completing over 75% en route to 298 yards and 4 scores, but past that it was pretty much a run of the mill beatdown. This mostly served as a reminder/declaration that Texas hasn't completely imploded.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Iowa 10, #13 Illinois 6
Well, Iowa's alive. Hawkeyes QB Jake Christensen had a good game (68%, 182 yards, TD) and the running game was fine. Still, everyone seems to be injured every year, so they should really just fire their training staff already. Or if they're students then expel them or something. A weird game for Illinois - Juice Williams actually went 9 for 15, which is good for him, but didn't get too many yards either by air or land, and was replaced by Eddie McGee, who gave up the game-ending pick. Really, the key here was Rashard Mendenhall not doing much, as he only had 67 yards on 15 carries. Illinois is still in the thick of the Big Ten race - they've just gone from one of the favorites to a very good albeit one-dimensional team. And, again, Iowa's alive! So good for them.
Iowa: STOCK UP
Illinois: STOCK DOWN

#23 Penn State 38, #14 Wisconsin 7
Well, that margin is much more surprising than the result. Anthony Morelli had a completely decent day, completing 57% for 216 yards and a TD; yes, he amazingly had no turnovers. And Rodney Kinlaw once again proved himself a franchise back, rushing for 115 and a TD. Meanwhile, Wisconsin QB Tyler Donovan played, like, well, Anthony Morelli, having decent but unspectacular stats (16/29, 220 yards) and more interceptions than touchdowns (2 INT, 0 TD). PSU's capable of beating anyone in the Big Ten as long as Morelli plays decently, as this game shows - problem is, that's a big if. And as for Wisconsin, I'll knock them down a notch - this wasn't a disaster or anything, but this is the most vulnerable they've looked all year.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN

#15 Boston College 27, Notre Dame 14
Much more one-sided than the score. ND seems to have regressed back to early-season form, and BC's still horribly untested. BC played as well as it should've, God knows if that means anything; then again, that can probably be said about BC's entire schedule, both past and future.
Boston College: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN

#16 Arizona State 44, Washington 20
A pretty one-sided win that ASU needed. Keegan Herring had the big day, going for 119 and a score on the ground, but Rudy Carpenter was good as well, completing 64.5% en route to 227 and a 2/1 ratio. The early potential of both Washington and QB Jake Locker seems like a distant memory, as Locker couldn't even break a 40% completion percentage.
Arizona State: STOCK UP
Washington: STOCK DOWN

#17 Virginia Tech 43, Duke 14
The VT passing game actually showed signs of life, as both QBs completed better than 70% of their passes; but oddly, the Hokies running game didn't crack 100 yards. The defense also completely shut down a Duke offense that hasn't been half bad lately. This was the first game where Virginia Tech really lived up to their preseason expectations, though it's hard to get excited when it's against Duke.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke: STOCK NEUTRAL

Texas Tech 35, #18 Texas A&M 7
Well, the bloom is off the rose for TAMU. The Aggies remained one-dimensional, and their running game is not as effective in a shootout as Texas Tech's one dimension of passing the hell out of the ball. Texas Tech is somewhat quietly having the great year expected of Hawaii.
Texas Tech: STOCK UP
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN

Louisville 28, #19 Cincinnati 24
Live by the turnover, die by the turnover - Cincy's year evened out a bit as the Bearcats turned the ball over four times. Louisville's defense managed to hold them under 500 yards, and when that happens, the Cardinals have a chance. Also, Brian Brohm (28/38, 350, 3 TD) is very good.
Louisville: STOCK NEUTRAL
Cincinnati: STOCK NEUTRAL

#20 Georgia 20, Vanderbilt 17
Uninspiring performance by the Bulldogs, outside of RB Knowshon Moreno's 157-yard day. Matthew Stafford was mediocre (51.6%, 201, TD), and the defense allowed Vandy to pretty much hang with them. Vanderbilt may be a bit better than previously thought, while Georgia has gone from an exciting balanced team early to one that just makes me yawn.
Georgia: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP

#21 Boise State 69, Nevada 67 (4 OT)
POINTS! Boise's still the best in the conference, but it seems a lot closer than after the Broncos' 58-0 whooping of New Mexico State. Still, running back Ian Johnson is an unbeatable beast, and while you'd never know it here, BSU might be the only WAC team with a semblance of a defense. Nevada established themselves here as an upper-level WAC team after some pretty mediocre showings thus far.
Boise State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nevada: STOCK UP

Michigan 48, #22 Purdue 21
Well, Michigan's back. Chad Henne looked like he was expected to in the preseason, completing 75% for 264 and 2 TD, and, shock, Mike Hart retained his mantle as most consistently great player in the nation by going for 102 yards and 2 TD despite having to leave early with an injury. The Michigan run defense was also in full effect, holding the Boilermakers to only 39 yards on the ground, and while Purdue QB Curtis Painter had some good peripherals, he's not quite good enough to beat this team on his own, especially when he throws 2 picks. If not for Ohio State, the Wolverines would probably the favorites to win the Big Ten. Wow.
Michigan: STOCK UP
Purdue: STOCK NEUTRAL

Wake Forest 24, #24 Florida State 21
FSU QB Xavier Lee wasn't awful, wasn't that good (24/45, 283, 2/2 ratio), but the game could've been winnable for the Noles had the running game not absolutely shit the bed. And the defense didn't help matters, as while Wake's Riley Skinner only had a 2/2 ratio himself, he was mostly accurate (70.4%), while unheralded back Josh Adams had a huge day of his own (18 att, 140 yards, TD). Wake is a thoroughly decent ACC team, and if FSU is anything more than that themselves, it's not by much.
Wake Forest: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida State: STOCK DOWN

#25 Kansas 58, Baylor 10
Ehhhhh. If anything, this one was won by the KU defense, as Baylor got absolutely nothing going. And the Jayhawks running game looked good, as a gaggle of backs combined for 236 yards. Still, I'd like to have seen a better performance from QB Todd Reesing, who, while he had a 2/0 TD/INT ratio, wasn't able to crack 50% passing against what isn't that good a defense at all. I'd knock them down, but I'll keep them steady, as the Jayhawks seem fairly established as a pretty good team, but one that isn't really much of a threat to anyone.
Kansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Baylor: STOCK NEUTRAL

Auburn 9, Arkansas 7
Wow, what a barnburner. Brandon Cox pretty much regressed, though he kept his completion percentage over 50% in throwing for 101 yards. And he was still better than Arkansas's Casey Dick, who had 111 and a 1/1 ratio on only 46%. Darren McFadden showed the inconsistency that prevented me from buying into the hype last year, going for only 43 yards on 17 carries. Neither of these teams are anything to get excited about. Yawn. See?
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN

Buffalo 43, Toledo 33
BUFFALO! Running back James Starks had 244 and 3 touchdowns. Wooooooo! I'm just so happy for them. Toledo's an absolute mess.
Buffalo: STOCK UP
Toledo: STOCK DOWN

Kansas State 47, Colorado 20
Pretty close, the main difference being CU QB Cody Hawkins having quite a bad night, completing only 46% and throwing 3 picks. Mostly served as a reminder that Colorado is a work in progress, though the Buffs should still find their way to a .500 or better record. Kansas State is a perfectly above-average team there's nothing to really say about. Ron Prince seems like a nice man.
Kansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado: STOCK DOWN

Virginia 17, Connecticut 16
The dream is over. Although UConn is still in the Also Receiving Votes category. Virginia won the yardage battle, but UConn probably takes this if WR/last year's QB DJ Hernandez doesn't fumble within the Virginia 5 in the last minute of the half. Or UConn could've taken it had they not had a bad snap during their crucial final drive, which, combined with a 5-yard penalty on the next snap, resulted in a 2nd and 38. Still, either way, this was a mostly even contest and legitimized UConn as a pretty good team that could win a few games in the Big East. And since I don't think I've bumped Virginia up, and the Cavs have looked much better since the season-opening implosiong at Wyoming, I'll do that here.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK UP

Georgia Tech 17, Miami 14
Judging by Miami QB Kyle Wright's awesome line of 8/17, 56 yards, 1 TD, rumors of Miami's offense showing improvement may have been horribly premature. Georgia Tech has Tashard Choice, and in the ACC, that's enough.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN

Hawaii 42, San Jose State 35 (OT)
Oh come on, really now? This Hawaii team is nowhere as good as last year's; the defense is horrible and giving up 30+ to the absolute dregs of the WAC, and Colt Brennan's been weirdly inconsistent, giving up 4 picks this year. Hawaii's almost definitely losing to Boise or Washington, the intrigue's now to see if a New Mexico State can pick them off.
Hawaii: STOCK DOWN
San Jose State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Houston 56, Rice 48
POINTS! Houston RB Anthony Alridge: 24 att, 205 yards, 4 TD. This scoring output may match Rice's for the next 4 games, at the very least.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Rice: STOCK NEUTRAL

Michigan State 52, Indiana 27
A fairly shocking beatdown, as the Spartans held a potent IU offense under 200 yards, and MSU QB Brian Hoyer completed a fairly insane 87% of his passes. Oh, and Javon Ringer also had 203 yards. Just a complete annihilation, and the type of game MSU desperately needed. Indiana still looks like a sleeper team, but there's now the extra concern about if they can rebound from such a soulcrushing stomping.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Indiana: STOCK DOWN

Navy 48, Pittsburgh 45 (2 OT)
Dave Wannstedt is a tactical genius. And a giant detriment.
Navy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN

Oklahoma State 45, Nebraska 14
I could laugh at Nebraska or just comment on how their good but disappoint offense is not nearly enough to carry that horrible defense, but I think the most telling thing is that I saw OK State had compiled 551 overall yards, and frankly, I expected more.
Oklahoma State: STOCK UP
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN

Week 7 Preview: Saturday and Sunday

2007-10-12T21:30:00.000-04:00

SATURDAY
12:00 PM

Kent State (3-3) @ #2 Ohio State (6-0)
Kent State's a fine team, probably slightly better than that 3-3 record. But anyway, Ohio State's defense seems to be the best non-LSU unit out there, and should easily shut down Kent enough to win even if the Buckeyes offense struggles.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5

Central Florida (3-2) @ #11 South Florida (5-0)
As USF's close win against FAU showed, USF is a beatable team; of course, they're probably the best team that UCF can beat. And much like FAU essentially was, this is a rivalry game, where pretty much anything can happen. Plus, while FAU is a pretty good Sun Belt team, they don't have the nation's leading rusher, which would be UCF back Kevin Smith. Oh what the hell, I'll pull the trigger - UCF came close against Texas, and the chance they can pull it off here isn't half bad.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1

#17 Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Duke (1-5)
Honestly, this'd be less surprising to me than UNC upsetting Miami last week. Duke's been putting up solid yardage numbers, and should be able to parlay it into an upset somewhere in the conference. Virginia Tech's a shaky team, so it could happen here, but ehhhh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2

#22 Purdue (5-1) @ Michigan (4-2)
Ooh, intriguing. Both teams are shaky, as Purdue's still fairly unproven and got outgained by Notre Dame, while Michigan was nowhere near as good as they should've been against Eastern Michigan. Except for Mike Hart, of course. Oh, Michigan's at home, if Notre Dame could do it (at least statistically), then why the hell not.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1

Eastern Michigan (2-4) @ Ohio (2-4)
MAC PARITY! I'd probably be better off flipping a coin, but Ohio's played better to date and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 2

Georgia Tech (3-3) @ Miami (4-2)
Two very similar teams - spotty offenses that show signs of life intermittently, and very good defenses that occasionally lapse. I liked Miami's defense more in the preseason, and the Canes offense has had the better days when they're on, so I'll cautiously go with the U at home.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1

Minnesota (1-5) @ Northwestern (3-3)
Minnesota is very much unable to stop the pass. Northwestern QB CJ Bacher is coming off of a school-record 520 passing yards against Michigan State. Uh oh.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 3

Rutgers (3-2) @ Syracuse (1-5)
Syracuse isn't any good.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4

12:05 PM

#13 Illinois (5-1) @ Iowa (2-4)
Iowa seems pretty much dead in the water - Penn State has a good defense, but under 200 yards? C'mon. This could be pretty close, and Iowa could pull things off at home - they shouldn't be THIS bad, so maybe they'll snap back to the mean. Or, of course, Iowa could reach bowl eligibility via their winnable final four games instead of here. But anyway, much like Penn State did, Illinois should be able to run their way to victory here, and a second straight good performance by Juice Williams would legitimize the Illini as a very dangerous team.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2

12:30 PM

#12 Texas (4-2) @ Iowa State (1-5)
ISU's at least looked more competitive in their recent losses than a team that lost to I-AA Northern Iowa should. As for Texas...ehhhh. Even though Iowa State's pretty much lived up to that 1-5 record (except for an offense explosion mostly due to Nebraska's horrible defense), they do have a very good QB/WR duo in Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe that could exploit that suspect Texas secondary. Still, the odds are against three Longhorn losses in a row.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3

Baylor (3-3) @ #25 Kansas (5-0)
I am unsure if this is a step up from the fairly weak teams Kansas kicked the crap out of to start the year.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 4

Alabama (4-2) @ Mississippi (2-4)
Bama didn't quite rebound against Houston like you'd hope after their subpar effort against FSU, but I'll still give the Tide the benefit of the doubt. Ole Miss is spotty, and even their occasional good days haven't led to much success.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 2

Oklahoma State (3-3) @ Nebraska (4-2)
Mirror match! Two good but disappointing offenses carrying very bad defenses. OK State may have the edge on both sides of the ball, but this could go either way.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1

1:00 PM

Toledo (2-4) @ Buffalo (2-4)
Toledo looked good at the beginning of the year, but lately, ehhhh. Buffalo's looking more and more like a legit I-A team, and with them at home, why not. MAC parity warning applies, though.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1

2:00 PM

Western Kentucky @ Ball State (3-3)
WKU's been good enough to beat some Sun Belt teams, but Ball State probably has the best offense in the MAC. They're a bit inconsistent, so there could be a loss here, but I doubt it.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 3

New Mexico (3-2) @ Wyoming (4-1)
Wyoming's legitimately good, and looks like the best team in the conference. Still, with the MWC parity, it's not like they're too far ahead of the pack. The Cowboys are at home, so I'll give them the edge, but anyone in this conference can beat anyone else, pretty much.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2

2:30 PM

Tennessee (3-2) @ Mississippi State (4-2)
As Tennessee-Georgia showed, the Vols are more than capable of shutting down a run-first team, which is very much what Mississippi State is. If MSU finds a way to take advantage of a young Vols secondary, they could do some things, but with their QBs, I doubt it.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 3

3:00 PM

Bowling Green (3-2) @ Miami of Ohio (3-3)
BGSU seems to be among the legit top tier of the MAC, while Miami of Ohio seems like one of the middle tier that's gotten some breaks. But still, MAC parity, etc., etc.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2

San Diego State (2-3) @ Utah (3-3)
Utah seems to have gotten things together. Maybe. It's hard to tell when you're facing the Louisville defense. SDSU still seems to be the weak sister of the league, though admittedly in a parity-filled conference, that doesn't mean too much.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2

3:30 PM

#1 LSU (6-0) @ Kentucky (5-1)
A win here probably means LSU won't be threatened until their regular season-ending game against Arkansas; UK and the Hogs have the offensive weapons that are necessary to take down the Tigers. As Virginia Tech showed, a defense-oriented team has little chance against the #1 team in the country - LSU will just hold their opponent to single digits, and the Tigers offense is good enough to at least get two touchdowns or so. Instead, an offense-oriented team like Kentucky, as much as I rag on them, will probably get 2 or 3 scores of their own, and they can hope the LSU offense has a subpar day (like against Tulane) and win to the tune of, say, 23-20 or something. That said, just the opposite could happen - Andre' Woodson already experienced a Kyle Orton-esque fall from grace, and this could be another visit from The Ghosts Of Heisman Chokers Past, as LSU's thoroughly capable of giving the Wildcats a beatdown much like Oklahoma did to Seneca Wallace-led Iowa State a few years back. It'll probably be surprisingly (at least judging by my writings on the two teams) close, but I'm still not picking against LSU.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2

Washington State (2-4) @ #6 Oregon (4-1)
An upset's somewhat possible, I suppose, but Wazzou's pretty clearly no higher than 9th in the conference. That's not to say they're not talented, since they could win in a shootout, which lends itself well to the Pac 10, but the Oregon defense is that much more effective.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 4

Arizona (2-4) @ #7 USC (4-1)
Arizona regressed horribly last week, so I have no confidence in their spread offense this season. And USC has both a healthy quarterback and a whole bunch of motivation. This could get real ugly.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4

#8 South Carolina (5-1) @ North Carolina (2-4)
UNC had the impressive and well-deserved upset against Miami last week, but they've still been pretty awful as a whole on the year. The UNC of 2008 projects to be more the level of team that can beat a South Carolina 2007.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4

#14 Wisconsin (5-1) @ #23 Penn State (4-2)
Could go either way. Wisconsin's weakness is the run, and Penn State can do plenty of that. Penn State's weakness is their quarterback, and Wisconsin does in fact field a defense. Part of me wants to pick PSU since they're at home, but it's essentially a pick 'em, and c'mon, Anthony Morelli.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1

#15 Boston College (6-0) @ Notre Dame (1-5)
BC's amazingly vulnerable, but once again, the schedule won't let that be proven. ND had been improving to a respectable level, but imploded last week while beating UCLA via smoke and mirrors. If they'd kept getting better, I'd give the Irish a chance, but this could turn into an easy win that somehow vindicates the perception of BC.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3

#18 Texas A&M (5-1) @ Texas Tech (5-1)
Could degenerate into a fun little shootout. The TTU passing game lends itself much better to that than TAMU's mostly-running style, and that A&M defense? Ehhhh. For a team I have ranked, I feel like I pick against the Aggies a lot.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2

Army (3-3) @ Central Michigan (3-3)
Man, Army's somehow 3-3. And doesn't really deserve to be. CMU started off horribly, but seems to be off the schneid.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3

Connecticut (5-0) @ Virginia (5-1)
Oh jeez. UConn's been mostly a paper tiger, although they did kick the absolute shit out of Akron. Virginia's also a bit overrated, since while they seem to have gotten their shit together, they've mostly just been one of the glut of mediocre ACC teams and happened to get some breaks. Plus playing Duke and UNC helps. I'll go with who has frankly been the more impressive team, and my personal bias doesn't hurt.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1

Rice (1-4) @ Houston (2-3)
Rice's "get seven turnovers" strategy for victory doesn't lend itself to duplication.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4

4:00 PM

Western Michigan (2-4) @ Northern Illinois (1-5)
WMU is disappointing. NIU is awful.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2

5:00 PM

Fresno State (3-2) @ Idaho (1-5)
Idaho vs. Utah State is shaping up to be quite a battle to see who is the worst team in the WAC. This game will do little to quell the anticipation.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4

TCU (3-3) @ Stanford (2-3)
As much as I'd like to, no. It was a hell of an upset, but the USC-Stanford stats show just how big a disparity there is between Stanford and, well, anyone that's any good, even if TCU's inclusion in that category has been somewhat shaky recently.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3

5:30 PM

Air Force (4-2) @ Colorado State (0-5)
They have a chance, but I've given up on Colorado State.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 1

6:00 PM

#20 Georgia (4-2) @ Vanderbilt (3-2)
UGA's vulnerable, as Tennessee obviously showed, but Vandy hasn't shown much so far this season. An upset's possible, but the Commodores seem like just the elixir that the Bulldogs need for what ails 'em.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3

Temple (1-5) @ Akron (3-3)
More or less a pick 'em. Temple's a competitive mid-major team, and Akron's been somewhat unconvincing as an upper-tier MAC team. MAC parity warning applies, I'll go with the home team.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1

6:30 PM

#10 Missouri (5-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (5-1)
Missouri could do it, but I'll believe it when I see it. Missouri could be able to put up more than enough points, but the Tigers defense is untested enough where the same could probably be said of Oklahoma. If this turns into a defensive struggle, OU obviously has the edge, and in a shootout, the Sooners have the horses to compete with the Tigers as well.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 3

7:00 PM

Oregon State (3-3) @ #9 California (5-0)
Oregon State's improved, but with star WR Sammie Stroughter out for the year, I don't give them a chance. Cal's a double-edged sword - that lack of pass defense makes them prone to be beaten in a shootout, but they have the receiving corps to probably be the best shootout-based team in the country. And here, that's no exception.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3

Louisville (3-3) @ #19 Cincinnati (6-0)
Cincinnati's a pretty good team, and Louisville's a roulette wheel. Louisville should be able to score theirs, and Brian Brohm should continue his string of excellent games, but outside of the NC State game, there's nothing to suggest the Cardinals D won't be hemorrhaging points. If the D even somewhat shows up, Louisville could win a shootout, but I wouldn't bet on it.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 2

Louisiana-Lafayette (1-5) @ Arkansas State (2-3)
ASU's shown signs of life against Texas. LA-Laf's shown signs of life against NORTH Texas. Advantage to...
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2

Indiana (5-1) @ Michigan State (4-2)
MSU's defense has looked pretty bad, and the Spartans' stock has decreased quite precipitously the last two weeks. The MSU secondary was carved up by Northwestern's CJ Bacher and Wisconsin's Tyler Donovan, and the Hoosiers' Kellen Lewis is probably better than both of them.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2

New Mexico State (3-3) @ Louisiana Tech (0-4)
NMSU's been one of the greater disappointments of the year for me, and Boise absolutely annihilated them. Louisiana Tech hasn't been as outstandingly awful as I expected, but the Bulldogs remain pretty bad. NMSU's the better team, but definitely not by a safe margin.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2

Louisiana-Monroe (1-4) @ North Texas (0-5)
Who knows in a Sun Belt game, but ULM's offense has seemed on track in conference games. As for North Texas, well, they're at home. And green is a nice color.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2

Marshall (0-5) @ Tulsa (3-2)
Marshall's not awful, just completely uninspiring. Tulsa's shiny new offense seems to be taking well, so they may actually make the Herd look awful here.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3

Tulane (1-4) @ UAB (1-4)
Tulane's not half-bad. Well, actually, they are half-bad. Instead of the expected all-bad. UAB's, like, three-fourths-bad. Hard hitting analysis.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1

7:30 PM

SMU (1-4) @ Southern Miss (2-3)
Southern Miss has been slightly unlucky, but they're not quite the level of team either expected from this season or as their usualy reputation would dictate. Still, that should be enough at home against the Mustangs, which have been another disappointment.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2

7:45 PM

Auburn (4-2) @ Arkansas (3-2)
Still not sold on Brandon Cox turning the corner just yet. Could go either way, but in McFadden (and Jones) I trust and all that.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1

8:00 PM

Middle Tennessee State (1-5) @ Memphis (2-3)
An interesting one - MTSU's shown a pretty good offense, while Memphis has been fine, but nothing great. I'll hold to my preseason thoughts, and give the pick 'em to the home team.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1

9:05 PM

East Carolina (3-3) @ UTEP (4-2)
Ahhhh parity-filled faceless mid-major teams
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 1

9:15 PM

Colorado (4-2) @ Kansas State (3-2)
Oh who knows. Colorado's had the dismal game against Arizona State, so that's probably the difference in my mind. Both are slightly above-average teams that are only getting better, but the Buffaloes seem to have slightly more implosion potential.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1

9:30 PM

BYU (3-2) @ UNLV (2-4)
Again, the MWC is one of the many parity-filled conferences, so either team can win, but BYU's looked much better. That offense is high-powered, and UNLV pretty much got the crap kicked out of them by Utah.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3

10:15 PM

Washington (2-3) @ #16 Arizona State (6-0)
ASU's far from invincible, and Washington's far from a pushover. Still, in recent years, the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home, and Washington's still at the level of squad where ASU'll win comfortably, although probably not via blowout.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2

SUNDAY
8:00 PM

Nevada (2-3) @ #21 Boise State (4-1)
After Boise's utter manhandling of NMSU last Sunday, there is absolutely no way I am picking against the Broncos.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4

Week 7 Preview: Wednesday-Friday

2007-10-08T20:20:00.000-04:00

WEDNESDAY
8:00 PM

Navy (3-2) @ Pittsburgh (2-3)
Navy's a bit of a Louisville situation, even if the offense isn't as strong as the Cardinals. If the defense shows up, they can win. If it doesn't, they'll lose. I'll still give the Midshipmen the benefit of the doubt, since I'm not sure if Pit'll do much either way - Panthers QB Pat Bostick is coming along, but he's been a work in progress.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence (out of 5): 1

THURSDAY
7:30 PM

#24 Florida State (4-1) @ Wake Forest (3-2)
FSU's a solid team, and obviously talented. Wake wasn't quite as good as their record last year, but they're still a dangerous team with some athletes, such as RB/WR Kenneth Moore. The Noles defense was good enough against Alabama two weeks ago that I think they'll shut Wake down; an upset isn't completely out of the question, though.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3

FRIDAY
8:00 PM

Hawaii (6-0) @ San Jose State (3-3)
It's a Hawaii game - the Warriors will score a crazy amount of points, and could give up just as many at any moment. SJSU seems to have regressed from last year, even if they'll be able to beat up on some weaker WAC teams to get to 6-6, but they do have a very good QB in Adam Tafralis, which should serve them well in a shootout. Hawaii has the better offense, but if it falters, SJSU's offense is good enough to eke out a win.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 6

2007-10-08T15:48:00.000-04:00

#1 LSU (6-0, #1 last week)
Still the easy #1. The funny thing is, for as much as I bash Kentucky, they probably have the best chance of beating LSU outside of whoever the Tigers face in the SEC title game. A defense-first team won't be able to score on LSU, and will give up their share of points, as Virginia Tech showed, so Kentucky's the type of offense-based team that can score their fair share, and hope the LSU offense has an off night.

#2 Ohio State (6-0, #2)
If they had a better offense, they might give LSU a run for my #1, but as it is, Ohio State is worse on both sides of the ball than the Tigers. Still, that defense is scary.

#3 Oklahoma (5-1, #9)
Although they didn't quite dominate Texas, it looks like the Colorado game was more abberation than trend. Thus, return to your rightful place, Sooners.

#4 West Virginia (5-1, #5)
Probably the best offense in the country outside of your Hawaii-esque gimmick teams with no defense. Nobody's running with them for four quarters, as I've said many times.

#5 Florida (4-2, #11)
As I said in the recap, they established themselves as among the top tier despite losing. They would beat Auburn 85-90% of the time, and hey, no shame losing to LSU. A similar team to WVU - that offense can go with anyone's, and while there's concern on defense, it's still a pretty good unit.

#6 Oregon (4-1, #4)
Still an upper level team, just dropped a bit with some of last week's losers re-establishing themselves.

#7 USC (4-1, #2)
Oregon beats the teams they statistically dominate, USC has trouble doing so. There's your difference between 6 and 7.

#8 South Carolina (5-1, #7)
This begins the top of the...well, third tier, if you count LSU and Ohio State as their own. Pretty good veteran team, but much like Georgia, capable of being knocked off by a Tennessee-level team having a good day.

#9 California (5-0, #12)
The best all-offense, no-defense team in the land.

#10 Missouri (5-0, #14)
Second! Actually, they kind of have a defense, which I guess makes them the third-best all-offense, fine-defense team behind WVU and Florida.

#11 South Florida (5-0, #10)
FAU doing so well showed some cracks in the armor, but there's nobody stepping up to leapfrog over the Bulls.

#12 Texas (4-1, #13)
God. I actually wanted to drop the Longhorns, as they're just so...talented-but-uninspiring, but Wisconsin's run defense becoming a liability and Georgia just falling apart nudge UT up. Yawn.

#13 Illinois (5-1, #21)
Attrition's a wonderful thing. If Juice Williams is actually a decent quarterback now, why the hell not? And if he isn't, well, why the hell not?

#14 Wisconsin (5-1, #8)
The pretty good not great team I had figured before the season began, just with run defense as a giant liability.

#15 Boston College (6-0, #17)
The usual 8-4 BC team in a conference with nobody good enough to beat them.

#16 Arizona State (6-0, #15)
A step up from their disappointing 2006, but the close win at Wazzou makes it unclear if they've made any big strides.

#17 Virginia Tech (5-1, #19)
That defense is kind of good enough to lead them to maybe winning.

#18 Texas A&M (5-1, #18)
A pretty good team, nothing more, nothing less. Got a bit closer to the running/passing balance they had last year, but still not there yet.

#19 Cincinnati (6-0, #23)
A good team, if a tad overrated. That turnover margin seems to be a trend for no particular reason this year; as long as it holds up - watch out.

#20 Georgia (4-2, #6)
Things fell apart against Tennessee - there's still enough talent to justify ranking them here, and as long as one of either the running game or defense rebounds, they have enough to get by.

#21 Boise State (4-1, --)
The class of the WAC. They actually have a defense!

#22 Purdue (5-1, #20)
Still have the offense to hang with pretty much every other team except those in my top 5 or so. They just happened to play #2.

#23 Penn State (4-2, #22)
Anthony Morelli's still not any good, but in this parity-filled year, a pretty good running game and a pretty good defense will do.

#24 Florida State (4-1, #24)
Pretty good, absolutely unspectacular. I have no idea what to say about this team.

#25 Kansas (5-0, --)
I guess? Hawaii has no defense, I'm still not sold on Auburn's Brandon Cox, Tennessee is a middle of the road SEC team with 2 losses. Kansas is a fine team but nothing special, and undefeated. And this year, that's good enough.

Week 6 Recap

2007-10-08T14:59:00.000-04:00

#1 LSU 28, #11 Florida 24
An emotional rollercoaster. When Florida looked like it might roll early, I was fairly angry. Someone gets the big upset over the dominant #1 team and it's THESE guys? Again? And I have to put up with at least a year and a half more of Tim Tebow, and the announcers fellating him? I mean, come on Florida. Let someone else win games, jeez. But it soon became a back and forth dramatic battle between good and evil, won mostly thanks to two late Gator turnovers and Les Miles's propensity for going for it on fourth down. LSU remains the best team in the nation easily, especially since them and Ohio State seem to be the two teams left standing. As for Florida, as odd as this may seem with a loss, I'll bump their stock up. I knew they were talented, but had questions about such a young team, and watching pretty much the entire game live (I flipped in places for USC-Stanford and pieces of SNL), wow, that offense is pretty good. They retroactively solidified themselves as a contender for a national title they now almost definitely cannot win.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida: STOCK UP

Stanford 24, #2 USC 23
WASH YOUR HANDS. I saw it was 16-7 at the half, and figured USC would pull away late. I refreshed the window of boxscores quite a bit later, and saw Stanford was only down by 6 late. So I turned to Versus shortly before John David Booty threw his third pick of the night, and I realized, oh my God, Stanford could actually do this. And, well, do it they did. Jim Harbaugh is awesome. Now, looking at the game objectively, USC pretty much crushed them statistically, outgaining the Cardinal 459-235. Despite his heroics on the final drive, Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard had an awful night, going only 11 for 30 for 149 yards and a 1/1 ratio. Really, it was the turnovers that put this within reach for Stanford, and all four giveaways by USC were interceptions by John David Booty. I really don't know what this means for USC - they should still probably beat one of Cal and Oregon, but Booty throwing 4 picks isn't something than can be written off somewhat to dumb luck and used as a motivator, such as if Stanford had recovered 4 out of 4 fumbles or something. Booty's been unspectacular, but was now somewhat of a detriment despite his good peripherals (60% completion pct., 364 yards) - he'll need to cut down on his mistakes if USC will make it to the Rose Bowl, or yes, even the National Championship. Still, if this motivates him to do just that, this is a team capable of not only beating Oregon and Cal, but crushing them, which barring an undefeated season by both LSU and Ohio State or maybe even USF, would probably be enough to get them into one of the top two slots. As for Stanford, this doesn't mean they're ready to get into a bowl this year; in fact, they're far from it. This just means recruiting's probably gonna get a lot better a lot sooner, moreso than anything else.
USC: STOCK DOWN
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL

#3 Ohio State 23, #20 Purdue 7
A convincing win, but not a complete blowout. The Buckeye defense did completely shut down Purdue's running game, however, holding the Boilermakers to only 4 yards on the ground. Purdue is what they are (that probably violated some sort of grammatical rule) - a pretty good team, but not in the Buckeyes' league. OSU QB Todd Boeckman's performance may be somewhat cause for concern - he completed 59% and had 200 yards, but only 2 touchdowns versus 3 interceptions. Still, that Buckeyes defense is good enough to allow that. They're not quite LSU, but they're very good.
Ohio State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Purdue: STOCK NEUTRAL

#5 West Virginia 55, Syracuse 14
As one-sided as the score. Steve Slaton only having 69 yards on 15 carries is somewhat odd, but Pat White's performance (12/15, 148, TD passing, 14 rushes for 89 and a TD) more than made up for it.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Syracuse: STOCK NEUTRAL

Tennessee 35, #6 Georgia 14
Ugh. Matt Stafford had a 2/1 ratio, but completed less than 50% of his passes, and he wasn't helped out by the UGA running game at all. Meanwhile, Tennessee had an absolute field day on offense, with Erik Ainge completing 77% for 165 yards, and Vols halfback Arian Foster running for 98 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tennessee put themselves back up into the Auburn-level slightly above average tier, rather than going nowhere with Arkansas. As for UGA, this is a confidence-depleting performance - I had them a bit high due to attrition, and I liked their offense/defense balance, and in this game they showed neither. Bleh.
Tennnessee: STOCK UP
Georgia: STOCK DOWN

#7 South Carolina 38, Kentucky 23
I thought going into the game that Andre' Woodson would get Seneca Wallaced, but I seem to have picked the wrong fallen Heisman frontrunner, as Woodson instead gave away two critical fumbles for touchdowns, much more reminiscent of Kyle Orton. Kentucky remains what they are - a team with a dangerous offense that also allows the other team to have a dangerous offense, and this was far from the convincing win by SC that I expected. The game was extraordinarily even except for Kentucky losing the turnover battle 4-1. Kentucky's dangerous if not all that great, SC's very good but definitely not far ahead enough to not possibly get knocked off.
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
Kentucky: STOCK NEUTRAL

#21 Illinois 31, #8 Wisconsin 26
Illinois's best performance to date, as Rashard Mendenhall exploited the suspect Badgers run D for 160 and 2 scores, while Juice Williams actually, yes, had a completion percentage over 50%. Not only that, it was actually 63.2 percent! Over 60!. Crazy. Still, while the run D is a neon sign of a concern, it's not all bad news for Wisconsin - Tyler Donovan was able to throw for 392 yards, even if it was somewhat a case of quantity over quality, as he only completed 55% for a 2/2 ratio. Illinois gets a slight bump up thanks to Juice's performance, but besides that, these teams still are what they were going in - top-25 worthy, but not top-tier.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Wisconsin: STOCK NEUTRAL

#9 Oklahoma 28, #13 Texas 21
Sam Bradford rebounded from his awful effort against Colorado, going 21-of-32 for 244 and 3 scores against what remains a shaky Texas secondary. Colt McCoy actually rebounded as well, having as good a night as Bradford, completing 73% en route to 324 yards and a 2/1 ratio. Really, this was a fairly even game, as the score suggests, with Texas slightly worse - both by a hair in terms of yardage, and the Longhorns had 2 turnovers while forcing none. OU rebounded as a whole to get themselves back into that top tier, even if they don't seem quite as scary as pre-Colorado; as for Texas, they remain a very talented but thoroughly uninspiring team.
Oklahoma: STOCK UP
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL

#10 South Florida 35, Florida Atlantic 23
Hey, FAU's a good team people, and they obviously had a lot to play for. Still, as much as I like FAU, giving up 411 yards to them isn't something a top ten, and now a top five team, should be doing. Still, the Bulls were able to make up for it with an insane day on the ground - starting back Benjamin Williams had 186 and 4 touchdowns, while QB Matt Grothe nearly matched his 122 passing yards with 120 rushing yards. USF gets a slight nudge down because of that defensive performance, but hey, they're still pretty good.
South Florida: STOCK DOWN
Florida Atlantic: STOCK NEUTRAL

#14 Missouri 41, Nebraska 6
Okay, things that can be learned from this. The Missouri defense is decent, but not great, as Nebraska had a thoroughly mediocre day. On the other side of the ball, who knows, because Nebraska's defense gave up 606 yards to officially move from "awful" to "Louisville." Thus, we throw up our arms thanks to their ineptitude taking precedence over everything else, and we move on.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN

#15 Arizona State 23, Washington State 20
A slight disaster for the Sun Devils. RB Ryan Torain was fine, and QB Rudy Carpenter had a completion percentage over 70%, if only a 2/2 ratio. Still, ASU gave up 369 yards through the air to Wazzou QB Alex Brink, and probably should've lost this one based on the yardage deficit. This suggests ASU was kind of inflated by all the home games early, and are closer to the glut than to the Cals and Oregons of the Pac 10.
Arizona State: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK NEUTRAL

North Carolina 33, #16 Miami 27
Lost with the USC/Stanford game is that, hey, this happened too. Kyle Wright's 4 picks doomed Miami here, but that's not an excuse. Miami didn't do the one thing I thought they could, stop the run, as UNC had 183 on the ground. And they couldn't stop the pass either, as unimpressive Heels QB T.J. Yates actually impressed, completing 65% of his passes for 218 yards. Obviously, UNC's ready to win games now, whether they actually will or won't going forward, and while Miami's offense was fine yardage-wise, it goes back to being a work in progress.
North Carolina: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN

#17 Boston College 55, Bowling Green 24
Probably BC's most impressive win of the year, though they did pull a Cincinnati Special by having it inflated thanks to turnovers. The yardage was about even, but BGSU QB Tyler Sheehan threw 5 interceptions, two of which were returned for scores. BC's Matt Ryan had a 75%, 312 yard, 4 TD day more befitting to his reputation than some recent games, but MAC teams aren't exactly known for their defense. I'll give BC a slight nudge up, but they are still absolutely nothing exciting.
Boston College: STOCK UP
Bowling Green: STOCK NEUTRAL

#18 Texas A&M 24, Oklahoma State 23
A fairly interesting game with nothing interesting about it. A&M seems to be slightly more balanced than they've been this year, as Stephen McGee had a decent day throwing while the Aggies were still effective on the ground. OK State's offense looks to have recovered from their early-season doldrums, even if the team doesn't look all that great. Yawn.
Texas A&M: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oklahoma State: STOCK UP

#19 Virginia Tech 41, Clemson 23
What a weird game. This was a blowout early, and VT's scoring is inflated thanks to 2 touchdowns from the return game. VT QB Tyrod Taylor was a not very effective one man offense, throwing for only 65 yards but running for 118. Clemson's offense racked up yardage, but not thanks to their excellent RB duo of James Davis (9 yards) and C.J. Spiller (3 yards), but thanks to QB Cullen Harper attempting an insane 66 passes. Virginia Tech's still a decent team that just happens to be in the right conference to be considered good, and as for Clemson, the ship looks to be sinking. Although with Clemson, that could mean they win their next 6. God, I hate the ACC.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Clemson: STOCK DOWN

#22 Penn State 27, Iowa 7
Anthony Morelli remains pretty bad, as he completed 58% for 233 yards, but still had 2 interceptions versus 1 touchdown. Luckily, he was bailed out by two things, in Rodney Kinlaw's 168 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, and that Iowa's offense is a sinking ship that only gained 194 yards.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa: STOCK DOWN

#23 Cincinnati 28, Rutgers 23
I seem to be saying this a lot with games this week, but this was yet another pretty even game that was decided by turnovers, in this case Rutgers QB Mike Teel's 3 interceptions. Cincinnati, benefitting from turnovers? Who heard of such a thing.
Cincinnati: STOCK NEUTRAL
Rutgers: STOCK NEUTRAL

#24 Florida State 27, NC State 10
NCSU back Jamelle Eugene had 101 yards. That's good news. Past that, QB Dan Evans had 3 interceptions, as everyone starting at that position for the Wolfpack seems to. FSU was decent but unspectacular and remains a team whose TV games I'm thankful I don't get.
Florida State: STOCK NEUTRAL
NC State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#25 Hawaii 52, Utah State 37
That 37 is a damning indictment of Hawaii's defense. Backup Tyler Graunke actually had a better game than Brennan, somehow going only 9 for 11, but getting 246 yards and a 3/1 ratio off of that. Brennan went 19 for 25 for 219 yards and a score. Yep.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Akron 39, Western Michigan 38
Well, this is about the best ending ever. WMU is up 38-31 and kneeling out the clock deep in their own territory. With :15 left on fourth down, they decide to take the safety, making it 38-33. They do the free kick, Akron runs it back for the touchdown, no time left, Zips win. Wow.
Akron: STOCK NEUTRAL
Western Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL

Oregon State 31, Arizona 16
Arizona QB Willie Tuitama: 18/38, 222, 3 INT. That new offense: Still a work in progress.
Oregon State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK DOWN

Army 20, Tulane 17 (OT)
Tulane's Matt Forte but up another great line, if not quite the one he had against...I-AA that I forget. 32 carries, 202 yards, 2 TD. Yep.
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL

Auburn 35, Vanderbilt 7
Brandon Cox completed 82.4% of his passes, which confuses and frightens me. Not sold yet, though. Vandy's been disappointing in SEC play thus far.
Auburn: STOCK NEUTRAL
Vanderbilt: STOCK DOWN

Central Michigan 58, Ball State 38
CMU's offense put up the type of performance that Ball State's had against Nebraska. I officially have no idea what to make of the MAC.
Central Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Ball State: STOCK DOWN

Boise State 58, New Mexico State 0
Hooooly shit. This was every bit the massacre as that score suggests. NMSU's usually high-octane passing offense was held to only 108 yards, and the Aggies were held to negative 19 rushing. And Boise gained 604 yards just to make sure. Just...wow.
Boise State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK DOWN

San Diego State 24, Colorado State 20
Oh dammit CSU. The Rams could still probably win some games in that wide-open Mountain West, but I've lost faith.
San Diego State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado State: STOCK DOWN

Michigan 33, Eastern Michigan 22
Chad Henne threw two picks, but, news flash, this Mike Hart fellow is very good. 22 carries, 215 yards, 3 TD. This was still an uninspiring game for Michigan, though. I mean, come on, it's Eastern.
Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Eastern Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL

Texas Tech 42, Iowa State 17
Not much to say about the game, just that Tech QB Graham Harrell is quietly having the season Colt Brennan was expected to:

vs. SMU: 44/59 (74.6%), 419 yards, 4 TD
vs. UTEP: 48/64 (75%), 484 yards, 4/1 TD/INT
vs. Rice: 28/37 (75.7%), 414 yards, 6/1 TD/INT
vs. Oklahoma State: 46/67 (68.7%), 646 yards, 5 TD
vs. Northwestern State: 26/40 (65%), 338 yards, 5 TD
vs. Iowa State: 36/43 (83.7%), 425 yards, 4/1 TD/INT

He's pretty good.
Texas Tech: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Kansas 30, Kansas State 24
Well, Kansas is legit, at least to an extent, as they gained 437 yards here. Josh Freeman still exploited the defense in between interceptions, and you'd like to see more from the KU running game, but hey, good for them.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Utah 44, Louisville 35
Brian Brohm's still excellent, but THAT DEFENSE IS SO BAD.
Utah: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

Northwestern 48, Michigan State 41 (OT)
NW QB CJ Bacher's line: 38/48 (79.2%), 520 yards, 5 TD. This was enough of a back and forth shootout that the result was essentially a wash, but MSU definitely has some concerns on defense.
Northwestern: STOCK UP
Michigan State: STOCK DOWN

Notre Dame 20, UCLA 6
Notre Dame's offense imploded on itself and gained only 140 yards, yet the Irish still won handily, partially thanks to something called McLeod Bethel-Thompson throwing four picks for UCLA. Well done, Bruins. Well done.
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
UCLA: STOCK DOWN

Rice 31, Southern Miss 29
And it only took seven turnovers.
Rice: STOCK NEUTRAL
Southern Miss: STOCK DOWN