THE CONSENSUS:
SEC East:
1. Florida (#6 overall - AT: #6, LN: #11, SN: #5, SS: #6, ST: #10)
2. Georgia (#11 overall - AT: #16, LN: #17, SN: #14, SS: #16, ST: #9)
3. Tennessee (#16 overall - AT: #20, LN: #7, SN: #18, SS: #21, ST: #26)
4. South Carolina (#32t overall - AT: #39, LN: #40, SN: #36, SS: --, ST: #11)
5. Kentucky (#48 overall - AT: #43, LN: #48, SN: #53, SS: --, ST: #47)
6. Vanderbilt (#61 overall - AT: #45, LN: #78, SN: #78, SS: --, ST: #52)
SEC West:
1. LSU (#2 overall - AT: #3, LN: #2, SN: #2, SS: #4, ST: #2)
2. Auburn (#23 overall - AT: #21, LN: #23, SN: #16, SS: #14, ST: #40)
3. Alabama (#27 overall - AT: #29, LN: #34, SN: #31, SS: --, ST: #19)
4. Arkansas (#28 overall - AT #34, LN: #14, SN: #33, SS: #12, ST: #33)
5. Mississippi (#63t overall - AT: #75, LN: #77, SN: #54, SS: --, ST: #65)
6. Mississippi State (#73 overall - AT: #71, LN: #70, SN: #86, SS: --, ST: #63)
OVERRATED: Florida. History seems to have rewritten them as some sort of dominant force who, in retrospect, was easily the top team in the country in 2006. Really, they were a very good team that happened to get lucky, and then played the game of their lives in the national championship. And now they've lost about 2/3 of their starters.
UNDERRATED: South Carolina. They were one blocked kick away from beating Florida, and played Arkansas and Auburn close. A few breaks, and this could've easily been a 10-win team last year. And they return all but one starter on defense, and Steve Spurrier is their coach. Watch out.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
SEC East:
1. South Carolina
Yes, really. And believe it or not, last year's team, coached by Steve Spurrier, performed better than they did on defense than on offense. And they return an insane amount of experience on the defensive side of the ball. On the defensive line, the Gamecocks get back injured starters DE Jordin Lindsey and DT Marque Hall, along with starting nose tackle Nathan Pepper. The fourth DE spot should be filled by sophomore Eric Norwood, who started no games last year, but still tied for the team lead with 7 sacks. One of last year's starting DEs, Casper Brinkley, gets moved to OLB, where he'll play alongside All-SEC MLB Jasper Brinkley, who, yes, is his twin brother. Returning starter Rodney Paulk takes up the third LB spot, and once again, South Carolina gets some ex-starters back from injury, in this case Dustin Lindsey and Cody Wells. And they return all the starters in the secondary too! And then, of course, there's the offense. QB Blake Mitchell has had a spotty career, but had wholly decent numbers in 6 starts last year: 1789 yards on 66.8 passing and a 10/6 TD/INT ratio. He should improve on those and become an above average player. At the rest of the skill positions, the one major loss is their top WR Sidney Rice, but top JuCo recruit Larry Freeman should at least somewhat fill that void. The major concern for the offense, and for the team as a whole, is in the offensive line, where officially, two starters return, but the other three projected starters do have starting experience. While the offensive line probably won't be elite, it should at least continue to improve, as even if the experienced players disappoint, Spurrier has brought in a number of talent youth which may right the boat. South Carolina should be much improved for a number of reasons; firstly, Georgia was their only loss last year that wasn't close - a few breaks, and they could've been in Florida's spot last year; hell, a few breaks against Florida, and FLORIDA wouldn't have been in Florida's spot. Secondly, the offense was above-average in terms of offensive yardage, but didn't see this translate into scoring - some regression to the mean, combined with returning talent and the fact that, well, Steve freakin' Spurrier is their coach, suggests a dramatic offensive improvement. And while the defense, conversely, allowed less points than their yardage would dictate, they should be able to repeat that by returning 10 of 11 starters. On the surface, the Gamecocks' SEC schedule seems brutal, with road games at Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas. In fact, three of those are quite winnable; Carolina faces Georgia early, at a time when their defense may not have come together, Arkansas is overrated, and well, Tennessee, come on, this is a Spurrier-coached team. The LSU game, as well as home against Florida, should be the two keys - the Gators should be dangerous since SC gets them late in the year, but Carolina luckily gets them in Columbia. 11 of these games are winnable on paper, and when you look at Spurrier's Carolina tenure, he sometimes wins games he shouldn't (Tennessee and Florida two years ago ring a bell). When Spurrier became coach at Carolina, some people said that in three years, he'd have them as a national title contender. While perception may not be so at the moment, those people might be right.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Florida
Florida finished top-10 in yardage defense and at #21 in offense, so yes, they were a pretty good team last year. Still, they were quite lucky, as their wins over Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, and of course, South Carolina, could've easily been losses. With only 6 returning starters on offense and 2 on defense, it almost doesn't matter, but I don't think a team so scarce on starting experience would be regarded as highly after an 8-4 season. Still, I don't think the team will be awful, just not a national title contender. Tim Tebow, at the very least, proved to be a great I-AA quarterback against Western Carolina, and he will be helped by two great receivers, senior Andre Caldwell and do-everything sophomore Percy Harvin. Also helping Tebow progress will be the offensive line, where four of Florida's 8 returning starters are located, including two 2nd team all-SEC players in C (RG in '06) Drew Miller and RT Phil Trautwein. The defense is much more of a question mark, returning only 2nd team all-SEC DE Derrick Harvey, SS Tony Joiner, 2005 starting FS Kyle Jackson, and a whole bunch of players who, in some cases, may have started one game. Florida's recruiting level is at the point where they can continually restock with young talent and, quite frankly, upperclassman talent, but replacing, you know, 4/5 of the defense should result in some growing pains. Still, at LSU is the one game on the Florida schedule that looks like an extremely likely loss. Home games at Tennessee and Auburn early could go either way, mostly due to the Gators' in experience, but Florida should be operating at full capacity by their games against Georgia, at South Carolina, and against Florida State. All in all, it should still be a good year for Florida -- although they're overrated as a top-5, and probably even a top-10 team, they should be at a similar level to 2005, 9 or so wins, and somewhere between the #3 and 5 team in the SEC as a whole.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Georgia
Georgia's offense wasn't THAT terrible last year - they finished around the middle of the NCAA in scoring, and while their yardage numbers were admittedly below-average, they still actually managed to gain more yards per game than Georgia Tech, who had, you know, the best player in college football last year in Calvin Johnson. And things should improve - while TE and leading receiver Martrez Milner departs, all starters return at the skill positions, and get back ex-starting WR Sean Bailey from injury. Sophomore QB Matthew Stafford should also improve greatly from a rough rookie campaign, where he threw for 1749 yards on only 53% passing and a 7/13 TD/INT ratio in 8 starts. The offensive line looks like a concern, returning only two starters, but apparently has impressed greatly between seasons. The defense, always a strength for UGA, was #9 in yardage last year, but the Bulldogs return only 3 starters after star CB Paul Oliver was declared ineligible and left for the NFL. Still, Georgia's defense is at a level where it remains consistently good year in and year out, and everyone returning on the depth charts is either experienced or was highly rated coming out of high school. While the defense should be down a notch from years past, especially facing Oklahoma State and South Carolina to kick off the year, the UGA defense should still be above-average. While this doesn't look like a national title-contender level team, Georgia should again be very good this year, especially later on. I could see them dropping games early both vs. South Carolina and at Alabama, or even vs. Oklahoma State, as both Stafford and players on the defense mature. However, once late September rolls around, it wouldn't shock me to see Georgia go on a tear and win their last eight games, with Florida at Jacksonville being the only obvious swing game. Georgia should be slightly improved over last year, and if Stafford develops as planned, seem very well-prepared for 2008.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Tennessee
Tennessee was an above-average team on both sides of the ball, but with four games that could've gone either way (vs. Air Force, Kentucky, and Florida, as well as at South Carolina), the Vols were lucky to win three of those and go 9-3 in the regular season. The offense should once again be solidly above-average, but may not be as great as you'd think with senior QB Erik Ainge, who's probably no worse than the SEC's #2 passer. The offensive line also returns three starters, and has enough experienced depth to at least remain steady, if not improve, despite the loss of All-American left tackle Arron Sears. The, perhaps temporary, loss of RB LaMarcus Coker, will be a concern, as while Tennessee returns some experienced backs in Montario Hardesty and Arian Foster, neither cracked 4 yards per carry last year. The receiving corps are the biggest concern of all, as the only returning WR of note is junior Lucas Taylor, who was #7 on the team with 14 catches for 101 yards last season. On defense, things generally look better, led by the linebacking corps of returning starters Jerod Mayo and Ryan Karl, and top backup Rico McCoy. The defensive line should also be constant, if not improved, as despite losing two NFL-caliber DTs, they should be replaced by two more with NFL-level talent in JT Mapu and Demonte Bolden. If either disappoints, however, there's enough talented youth at the position to at least play well. The secondary is the x-factor of the defense, as past 2nd team all-SEC free safety Jonathan Hefney, the next surest thing is probably uber-recruit true frosh CB Eric Berry. Still, much like the DTs, there's enough high-level talent that someone will stick. Really, this team...should be pretty good. And that is really all there is to say. This is a team this is completely unspectacularly above-average. Example, QB Erik Ainge. He's very good. He's not GREAT, but he's very good. And that's the story of this team on pretty much every level. And looking at the schedule, that'll be about how their season goes. Not a national title level, probably not an SEC title level, but probably not .500. Just...pretty good.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt actually wasn't all that bad last year after losing star QB Jay Cutler; the Commodores projected out to about a 6-6 team last season. And even better, 18 of 22 starters return for this year. Now-junior QB Chris Nickson played well after being thrown to the wolves in his first two games (at Michigan, at Alabama), throwing for 2085 yards and a 15/13 TD/INT ratio, as well as leading the team in rushing with 694 yards and 9 TD. He should improve, at least as a passer, and it'll help that he has two-time all-SEC WR Earl Bennett to throw to. The running game should also improve, as both Cassen Jackson-Garrison and 2005 starter Jeff Jennings return; luckily, they'll be running behind five returning starters on the offensive line. The defense should be improved, especially against the pass, as all four starters return in the secondary. The front seven, led by LB Jonathan Goff, should improve, but may not necessarily be especially great - the Commodores lose three starters, and Vanderbilt isn't the level of program that can bring in young recruits that can immediately play. As a whole though, Vandy should be improved, and the gap between them and other SEC teams isn't as wide as people think. They have a winnable out of conference schedule, with the only tough game being vs. Wake Forest, and winnable home games against Mississippi and Kentucky. Plus, again, Vandy is at the level where they can pull off an upset against one of the better teams, so the Commodores have an excellent shot at bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Kentucky
We'll start with the offense, since, frankly, that's the side of the ball that matters here. The Wildcats offense wasn't top 10 or top 15 as you'd expect, but was still quite above-average, and it should improve, mostly due to the talent at the skill positions: all-SEC WR Keenan Burton, 2005 all-SEC RB Rafael Little, and 2nd team all-SEC QB Andre' Woodson, who put up an insane line of 3515 yards on 63% passing with a 31/7 TD/INT. The offensive line's somewhat of a concern - they only return 2 starters, but with injuries to the line last year, there's some returning starting experience, so the unit should at least be decent. As for the defense, well, OLB Wesley Woodyard was an all-SEC player last year, and there's some returning talent, but that almost doesn't matter since the Wildcats D hemorrhaged yardage last year, faring better than only Louisiana Tech. On the plus side, DC Mike Archer was hired away by NC State for some unknown reason, but the replacement is DB coach Steve Brown. I suppose having the third-worst pass defense is an improvement over being responsible for the second-worst overall defense, so while the Wildcats D should improve to "respectably bad", I don't foresee a drastic turnaround. That said, there's enough offensive talent to win some fun shootouts, but Kentucky was lucky last year (~4-5 projected wins), and the schedule does them no favors. Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, and Florida Atlantic are an easy 3/4 of their OOC schedule, but the rivalry game against Louisville is, well, quite the opposite. The only SEC game in which Kentucky looks like a favorite is against Mississippi State, as they draw Vanderbilt on the road and miss Ole Miss. There's enough firepower there to maybe upset Tennessee at home, or win at Arkansas, but all in all, this looks like a drastic regression to the mean. Essentially, this team is like Texas Tech, but without the defense, and frankly, not as good an offense.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
SEC West:
1. LSU
A slam dunk. A top 15 offense last year, replacing the #1 draft pick with possibly a better QB (yeah, I said it.), and 8 starters returning from a top-5 defense. The only point of concern may be the loss of now-Florida State OC Jimbo Fisher, who will be replaced by Oregon's Gary Crowton; however, Oregon's offense did just as well as LSU's last year, so if there's any drop-off, it should be minor. The big focus will be on senior QB Matt Flynn, who's played very well (689 yards, 10/2 TD/INT) when called upon, but is replacing #1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell, who threw for 3129 on 68% passing with a 28/8 TD/INT last year. While Flynn may not match those numbers, I think LSU will still be improved at QB, as Flynn shouldn't make many dumb mistakes, such as, say, scrambling with less than a minute left and no timeouts when trying to come back against Auburn. I mean, who would ever do that? (Hint: JaMarcus Russell.) The Tigers also lose their top two WRs, but return Early Doucet, their just as talented #3. They also have an insane influx of new talent at WR, including 5'5" converted RB Trindon Holliday, probably the fastest man in college football; therefore, there shouldn't be much of a dropoff. LSU also returns four starters along the line, and has a USC-like amount of riches at running back, even with senior Alley Broussard quitting the team recently. On the other side of the ball, the #14 run defense in the country should be even better, as All-American DT Glenn Dorsey returns, as well as five other starters, including senior OLB Ali Highsmith and 2nd-Team SEC DE Tyson Jackson. LSU was #4 against the pass this year, and may actually now be the weakness of this defense, if only due to the loss of All-American free safety LaRon Landry. Starting CBs Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are the two returning starters, but strong safety should be fine in the hands of Craig Steltz, who became the first LSU player with an interception in 4 straight games. Even if the offense experiences some problems transitioning to Crowton's offense, the defense is more than good enough to carry the Tigers. LSU also got lucky with the schedule, as possible threats Florida, South Carolina, and out of conference, Virginia Tech, all have to come to Death Valley, leaving the only real trap game as November 3rd at Alabama. Anything less than the BCS title game would be disappointment, and anything less than an SEC title would be disaster.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Alabama
Mike Shula got a pretty raw deal, letting Tyrone Prothro shatter his leg in a blowout aside, as after a 10-2 year in 2005, the Tide could've had double-digit wins last year rather than ending 6-7 like they did. Alabama outgained 10 of their 12 opponents, and 5 of those were close, along with a close loss to Tennessee. If they had won half of those close games, rather than 1 of 6, Alabama would've finished 8-4 in the regular season, and with some luck, actually could've hit 10 or 11 wins. The Tide offense was completely decent last year, and should take some steps forward with 9 returning starters. QB John Parker Wilson was perfectly fine last year, throwing for 2707 on 57% passing and a 17/10 TD/INT ratio, and should continue to improve; plus he has his top two WRs returning in Keith Brown and 2nd team all-SEC DJ Hall. The running game seems to be the weak point of the offense for the time being, as star RB Kenneth Darby and NFL-caliber FB Le'Ron McClain both graduate. Still, there's talent there, and the new stable of backs will be running behind an elite-level offensive line, led by super-soph LT Andre Smith and 2nd team all-SEC center Antoine Caldwell. Defense, as usual, was the strength for Alabama this year, and while that should be over the case early, things may be slightly rough early. as they only return 5 starters on defense and are switching to a 3-4. Still, things should be above-average, as both starting DEs return, and 2 of the 4 LB spots will be taken by top-tier sophomore Prince Hall and 2005 starting DE Keith Saunders. The rest of the front seven is one of those cases where everyone returning either has high talent or experience, and someone should stick and play at a high level. In the secondary, Alabama's top-20 pass defense should at least remain constant, as they return FS Marcus Carter, as well as all-SEC Simeon Castille and part-time starter Eric Gray at cornerback. Plain old regression (or in this case, progression) to the mean would account for an 8 or 9 win season, but the Crimson Tide are also lucky with their schedule, drawing possible threats Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee at home, as well as possible upset LSU. Road games at Florida State and, of course, Auburn may be tricky, but all-in-all this looks like a team poised to have a huge rebound season. And, quite frankly, Nick Saban is an upgrade over Mike Shula, even if the latter did kind of get the shaft. This should be a year similar to 2005, where Alabama surprises and becomes an SEC title contender, if not a title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Arkansas
Oh, this was a close choice. Arkansas was probably closer to a top-20 team rather than top-10, but were still a solidly above average team, around, say, an 8-4 level. The star of the show, and seemingly the unanimous choice for best player in college football, is RB Darren McFadden, who ran for 1714 and 14 TD last season. I've always thought McFadden was very good, but I never saw him as the runaway best player that he seems to be pegged as -- I don't think he's at, say, an Adrian Peterson level, but is better than, say, Marshawn Lynch. At any rate, McFadden and Felix Jones (1225, 6 TD) should once again be the top running back duo in the nation, even if the offensive line has some questions. Oh, and they have a top-tier fullback in Peyton Hillis. The passing game is much more of a worry, as star WR Marcus Monk will miss a few games, and the rest of the receiving corps is fairly unproven. QB Casey Dick is somewhat more proven, meaning that he's proven that he's really not that good. His TD/INT ratio at least remained positive at 9/6, but that 49.2% completion rate, not so much. The offense should still be somewhat above-average though, if only for the talent of their running backs. The defense has improved the last few years under DC Reggie Herring, and things should at least stay steady this year. The defensive line may be hurt a bit by an injury to DT Marcus Harrison, but the unit still returns two other starters, and players at the other two positions with starting experience. The secondary also returns three of their four starters. The weakness of the defense may be the linebacking corps, which returns one starter from 06 and one from 05, but does lose all-SEC Sam Olajubutu. Arkansas should be pretty good no matter what -- it's hard to gauge how much the loss of OC Guz Malzahn will hurt, mostly since McFadden and Jones should guarantee the offense will be above-average, and the defense should at least remain above-average. Like most SEC teams, at LSU looks like the one very likely loss, and Arkansas splits its luck otherwise, getting Auburn and South Carolina at home, but Alabama and Tennessee on the road. #12 or #14 seems like a bit much unless Arkansas gets some breaks, but the Razorbacks should be a solid top-25ish team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
4. Auburn
Auburn was damn lucky last year, projecting out as about a 6-7 win team, but managing 10 in the regular season. The big concern on offense is the line, where senior King Dunlap returns at left tackle, but that's it, that's the list. While there is some upperclassman depth, there's very little in terms of starting experience, which should make the Auburn running game's performance interesting to watch. They lose NFL-caliber RB Kenny Irons, but I always found Irons fairly underrated, as the offense was just as good if not better when Irons was hurt and Brad Lester took over; still, Auburn backs have had some very good lines to run behind, and if that was the key to Lester's success, well, uh oh. QB Brandon Cox has been a three-year starter, but his stats last year were not overly impressive: 2198 yards for a 14/9 TD/INT ratio on 60.1% passing. Good numbers, but not blow away, though Cox does at least get 4 of his top 5 receivers back, losing only #1 WR Courtney Taylor. The defense was above-average last year, but given their yardage numbers, were quite lucky to finish at #7 in scoring defense. The Tigers return three of their front four, including all-SEC DE Quentin Groves, and the LB corps should also be a strength, as starting MLB Merrill Johnson returns along with super-soph and last year's part-time starter, OLB Tray Blackmon. The pass defense was #21 nationally last season, and should continue to be the defense's strength, as the secondary loses only star CB David Irons, and has enough talent to replace him. On the whole, Auburn's defense should remain above-average, but those offensive problems could result in any number of scenarios for the offense's performance. The schedule doesn't really pay them any favors, as the Tigers kick off the season with Kansas State and South Florida, either of which could be losses. Plus, Auburn gets Florida, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia all on the road, greatly diminishing their chances of upsets there. Still, this looks like a solid team that should easily be bowl-eligible, but if you want to pick a SEC team that could pull an '05 Tennessee and collapse compared to last season (besides Kentucky, obviously), this may be the best shot.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs actually weren't too bad last year, as they performed at about a 5-6 win level, but had some bad luck, mostly in a defense that allowed much more scoring than the yardage would dictate. Hell, they only lost to Georgia and Kentucky by a field goal each, so with some luck, this team would be viewed in a much more positive light. The offense was pretty bad last year, but somewhat luckily?, the team gets back 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Bulldogs QBs suffered a bunch of injuries last year, but return their leading passer in junior Michael Henig, whose overall line of 1201 yards on 43.8 passing and a 7/9 TD/INT ratio, which is less than inspiring. He torched the Kentucky defense pretty well last year, though, so that proves...something, I'm sure. That he plays the quarterback position, we'll go with that. Plus they now have an insurance policy in top JuCo QB Josh Riddell. Things should also be better with a very experienced offensive line, as each projected starter started at least half of last season. The Bulldogs also return starting RB Anthony Dixon, who gained 707 and 9 TD last year as a true frosh, though he struggled with injuries. And much like at QB, MSU brings in an insurance policy, in this case top RB recruit Robert Elliott. The Bulldogs also return underrated TE Eric Butler, and WR Tony Burks, who led the SEC in yards per catch last year. They also add top-flight JuCo WR Co-Eric Riley, who may gain the #2 spot, and also has a great name. The defense is more of a question mark, to an extent. The front seven is a mixed bag - MSU returns 2nd team all-SEC DE Titus Brown and 2 of 3 starting linebackers, but past that it's top JuCo DT Jesse Bowman and quite a bit of question marks. The secondary also has good news and bad news - 2nd team all-SEC CB Derek Pegues returns and moves to free safety, alongside returning starter Keith Fitzhugh, but the CBs left are somewhat of a crapshoot. Still, the level of performance should remain the same, and some of last year's bad luck with scoring should be alleviated, and the defensive stats should be improved via, at least, regression to the mean. While Mississippi State plays West Virginia out of conference, the rest of their non-SEC slate contains Tulane, UAB, and Gardner-Webb, three easily winnable games. MSU also gets Ole Miss at home, and, remember, this was around a .500-level team this season: they could easily win at Kentucky, and if Sylvester Croom can pull off one his upsets that gets a coach fired (Florida in '04, Alabama last year), that would bring Mississippi State to bowl eligibility. And why yes, they do get Tennessee at home. Anyway, this is a team on the way up, and this seems like a situation similar to Vanderbilt in Jay Cutler's senior year - a shot at bowl eligibility, likely to take a step back next year, but well-positioned to be much improved in the future. Hopefully Sly Croom'll be around to see it.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
6. Mississippi
Don't hurt me, Ed Orgeron. The Rebels played at a 1-3 win level last year, and as bad as Mississippi State's offense was, Ole Miss's was even worse. And their defense was no good, too. There's some reason for optimism though, at least on offense, where 9 starters return, although that does include versatile QB/Soulcrushing Disappointment Brent Schaeffer. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis should once again be the standout on offense, as he gained 1000 yards and 7 TD last year, and will return behind an offensive line that returns both four starters and left tackle Michael Oher, one of the best in the nation. The receiving corps also returns pretty much everyone, including do-everything Dexter McCluster, and adds AJ Jackson, Brent Schaeffer's top WR in junior college. The defensive line should be the best part of the defense, as they return all four starters, but the Ole Miss LBs are a horribly inexperienced unit, returning only 7 tackles. The secondary is a mixed bag, as SS Jamarca Sanford and CB Nate Banks return, but past that, things are a question mark, especially at free safety. While there's lots of shiny talent here thanks to Ed Orgeron's excellent recruiting skills, this team sort of reminds me of the Minnesota Vikings - great along the offensive and defensive lines, with two great skill position players (McCluster/Green-Ellis, Taylor/Peterson), but hey, you're gonna need much more than that to win anything. Though hey, at least the Rebels have a I-A quarterback. And, fairly easily, the worst team in the SEC. Though, hey, 2009 looks good!
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Saturday, August 18, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE BIG TEN
Writing this intro after the fact. I dicked around with the format, which was a mistake, as this took forever to write. I'm hoping to knock out the rest of the conferences ASAP, so then we can get onto what really matters: my top 25.
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Michigan (#4 overall - AT: #8, LN: #3, SN: #3, SS: #5, ST: #6)
2. Wisconsin (#9 overall - AT: #4, LN: #6, SN: #8, SS: #3, ST: #18)
3. Ohio State (#12t overall - AT: #12, LN: #13, SN: #17, SS: #15, ST: #15)
4. Penn State (#17 overall - AT: #17, LN: #35, SN: #15, SS: #13, ST: #14)
5. Iowa (#32t overall - AT: #33, LN: #27, SN: #34, SS: --, ST: #32)
6. Purdue (#42t overall - AT: #42, LN: #51, SN: #40, SS: --, ST: #35)
7. Illinois (#52 overall - AT: #67, LN: #49, SN: #57, SS: --, ST: #43)
8. Minnesota (#63t overall - AT: #78, LN: #68, SN: #51, SS: --, ST: #74)
9. Michigan State (#67 overall - AT: #74, LN: #59, SN: #71, SS: --, ST: #70)
10. Northwestern (#68t overall - AT: #66, LN: #57, SN: #87, SS: --, ST: #67)
11. Indiana (#72 overall - AT: #60, LN: #76, SN: #74, SS: --, ST: #79)
OVERRATED: Wisconsin. They were overrated last year due to a fairly weak schedule, and while they're a very good team, they're not the #1 team in the Big Ten like some magazines have predicted.
UNDERRATED: Illinois. The Illini projected out to a 6-8 win team last year, and with almost everyone back, they're, at the very least, a top 25 darkhorse. If it wasn't for their head coach...
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Michigan
OFFENSE: The marquee value is here, as for the fourth year in a row, the offense will be spearheaded by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, each in the top few handful of players at their position. Add to that junior WR Mario Manningham, again one of the top few players at his position, and the Wolverines probably have the best triumverate of skill position players in the nation. The offensive line is the relative weakness of this unit, but as usual for Michigan, it still should be quite strong; while two starters depart, All-American left tackle Jake Long returns, and a number of top recruits are ready to fill in those two open slots.
DEFENSE: Here's the interesting part. Through 11 games, last year's Michigan defense, under then-first year coordinator Ron English, was historically good, especially at completely nullifying whatever rushing attack was thrown at them. Even after being gashed by Ohio State and falling apart against USC, the Wolverine D still allowed only a paltry 43 rushing yards/game on the year, and were the #8 scoring defense and #6 yardage defense for the season. But that was last year. The problem this year? Almost everyone's gone. The two defensive stars left are LB Shawn Crable and safety Jamar Adams, and having to replace five of the front seven turns the secondary from a relative weakness into the defense's strength. However, things aren't completely grim; there are players with experience, such as DE Tim Jamison and safety Brandent Englemon, and recruits are at Michigan's usual high talent level, including LB Austin Panter, the first junior college signing in Ann Arbor since 1997. While experience is lacking, talent is still there, and if Ron English is as great a DC as his first season suggested, the defense should still be strong, if not at the historic pace it set last year.
OUTLOOK: I've had some trepidation about putting Michigan atop the Big Ten, but Ohio State last year set the precedent of a team being able to succeed with a strong offense and a talented but young defense. Still, Lloyd Carr having expectations worries me, and the schedule is far from a gimme. Home games against Ohio State, Penn State, and an underrated Oregon team, as well as visits to Wisconsin and maybe even Illinois (yes, Illinois), should all be tests. If the defense comes together quickly, I could see Michigan going undefeated and in fact doing so quite easily; however, there is room for disappointment.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Penn State
OFFENSE: QB Anthony Morelli was a prized recruit coming out of high school, stolen at the last minute from Pittsburgh. After spending two years behind Zack Mills (remember him?) and Michael Robinson, Morelli finally got the chance to start as a junior, and quite frankly, he was kind of shitty. Still, he showed signs of improvement, and this season he should be more of a strength than a liability. RB Austin Scott was essentially the Frank Gore to Tony Hunt's Willis McGahee, as Hunt only got a chance to shine due to Scott's repeated injuries. Scott returns for one last shot, and the job is all his -- barring health problems, this should be a situation where despite losing a star starter, the Penn State running game should see little if any dropoff. The receiving corps is as strong as any in the conference, led by uber-juniors Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. This leaves the main concern, which is the offensive line. The OL loses two starters, including top-5 draft pick Levi Brown, leaving open spots at each of the two tackle positions. While there is some talent to take these spots, they don't seem to be at the level of, to use the team above that also has to replace two starters, a Michigan. While the offensive line could be much worse off, it's still the fairly glaring concern for this offensive unit.
DEFENSE: Up front is the main point of weakness for the Nittany Lions D, as the defensive line returns only one starter, DE Josh Gaines. Still, unlike the offensive line, the open slots along the defensive trenches are ready to be filled by top-tier prospects who have also had some experience as freshmen, such as Maurice Evans and Phillip Taylor. The LB corps should again be among the top few in the country, as top-tier senior Dan Connor moves from OLB to MLB, essentially becoming this year's Paul Posluszny, and talented junior Sean Lee is alongside him, essentially playing this year's Dan Connor. The secondary should be just as strong, as 3 starters return, led by junior CB Justin King, while the open CB slot should be filled by stud sophomore AJ Wallace. All in all, the combination of lots of experience and where that fails, lots of talent, should make this one of the better defenses in the country.
OUTLOOK: Penn State was the rare team that pretty much played like their record, winning and losing when they should've, short of getting lucky vs. Illinois. This may be the team with the least glaring weaknesses in the conference, as the main point of concern is losing two starters on a still fairly experienced offensive line. While Ohio State and Wisconsin are obvious concerns, they get both at home, leaving the 9/22 game at Michigan as the key to the season. And, as two years ago showed, PSU's more than capable of holding their own in the Big House. Last year's mediocre offense and top-15 defense should both improve, and Penn State, much like two years ago, is a darkhorse national title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Ohio State
OFFENSE: I'll start with the obvious, quarterback, where Ohio State loses last year's best player (whose greatness has been unfairly diminished in retrospect) in Troy Smith to someone named Todd Boeckman. No, I don't know either. He's a 23-year old junior who, surprisingly, runs quicker than Troy Smith, so at the very least he should be a fine caretaker QB. In fact, the receiving corps may be a bigger concern, as the Buckeyes lost their top two WRs in Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. The unit should take an obvious step back, but should also be better than one would think, as past returning starter Brian Robiskie there's the high level of young talent you would expect from a program like Ohio State. Plus, Ginn was always fairly overrated anyway. The running game is one thing that should be fairly steady from last year, as Antonio Pittman gives way to last year's frosh sensation, Chris "Beanie" Wells. He's very good! And, as seems to be en vogue in the Big Ten this year, Ohio State is replacing two starters on the offensive line; the talent level of the replacements is below Michigan but ahead of Penn State, so this isn't a glaring concern for OSU.
DEFENSE: Similar to Penn State, there's a lot of returning talent from a top-15 defense. The weakness is the defensive line, where only All-Big Ten 2nd teamer Vernon Gholston returns. There's enough talent on the depth chart to still be very good, but compared to other parts of the defense, this should be the weakness throughout the year. The linebackers, however, should be absolutely fine, as this unit is absolutely loaded. Slightly overrated but still great Nagurski winner James Laurinaitis returns in the middle, and he's flanked by returning starter Marcus Freeman and last year's top-tier JuCo recruit, Larry Grant. Essentially, the Ohio State LB corps is the defensive equivalent of USC's running backs in terms of depth, as the third string is probably better than the starting units for most teams. The secondary should also be a strength, as the Buckeyes return All-Big Ten CB Malcolm Jenkins opposite sophomore Donald Washington, who started 9 games last season, in addition to top-tier strong safety Jamario O'Neal. Free safety may be a weakness, as OSU loses starter Brandon Mitchell, but the unit as a whole should not see much of a dropoff.
OUTLOOK: Although the defense was slightly overrated last year, the team wasn't, and if anything, has been underrated in retrospect after the national championship loss. They were really good, people. Anyway, with almost everyone returning, this year's defense may live up to last year's reputation, and should be more than enough to carry the offense through any growing pains. OSU also lucks out with the schedule, as a game at Purdue is the only even marginal test in the first eight, so the offense should be humming by the final four of @ Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, vs., Illinois, and of course, @ Michigan. The Buckeyes should lose at least one of those two road games, but really, given the talent, the layout of the schedule, and the fact that, hey, Jim Tressel is a very good coach, it honestly wouldn't be a shock if Ohio State somehow found its way back in the title game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
4. Wisconsin
OFFENSE: The good news is that nine of eleven starters return. The bad news is the two who leave: three-year starting QB John Stocco and all-galaxy left tackle Joe Thomas. Still, the situation isn't completely dire; the QB depth chart is led by experienced senior Tyler Donovan and Kansas State transfer Allen Evridge, while stud sophomore Jake Bscherer looks to be the replacement for Thomas. As for the guys who return, they're led by last year's freshman AA running back PJ Hill, and 2nd team Big Ten TE Travis Beckum. All in all, the Wisconsin offense returns an experienced upperclassman (or PJ Hill) pretty much everywhere, but perhaps more importantly, they've also built talented depth, including stud recruits such as RB John Clay and OL Josh Oglesby.
DEFENSE: The defense was Wisconsin's strength last year as they had kind of a mini-Michigan thing going on, and after Michigan's late-season struggles, Wisconsin actually only finished behind Virginia Tech and LSU in yards allowed per game. While the defense doesn't have as much returning as the offense, this is still an experienced unit. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, and the fourth slot should be filled by part-time starting DE Kurt Ware. The linebacking corps also has one open slot, but rather than a senior, the MLB slot should be filled by talented sophomore Elijah Hodge, brother of Virginia standout and current Green Bay Packer Abdul. The secondary is the weakness of the D; while the Badgers return both starting CBs, including all-Big Ten Jack Ikegwuonu, neither of the new safeties is an upperclassmen nor an especially highly touted recruit.
OUTLOOK: Last year, Wisconsin did in fact play like a double-digit win team, but one thing always nagged at me: who'd they really play? They missed Ohio State, and Michigan pretty much stomped them for their one loss of the year. After that, the best team they faced was either a solid but unspectacular Penn State team, or the quite overrated Arkansas Razorbacks in the Capital One Bowl. Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly as far as overrated teams go; they weren't a team like Maryland who had a number of lucky wins (the Badgers' only real break was vs. Illinois), but rather had an inflated record simply due to a pretty weak schedule. Now, the Badgers do in fact have a lot of returning talent; still, I think this is more of a top-15 level team than the Big Ten championship favorite that some magazines have touted them as. They should have more than enough to beat, say, Iowa at home, fairly convincingly, but in games at Penn State or Ohio State, I wouldn't classify them as a heavy favorite, if even a favorite at all. Again, they should be an upper-echelon team, but the talent level has me thinking more "Big Ten title contender" rather than "national title contender."
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Illinois
OFFENSE: Might as well start with the QB, especially when he has one of the best names in the NCAA. Juice Williams was a stud recruit and started 9 games last year as a true freshman, even if he only threw for 1489 yards, a 9/9 TD/INT ratio, and an..interesting 39.5% completion rate. Still, with Williams's own talent, as well as how improved the offense should be in general, Juice should at least be respectable this coming year. Both starters at running back from last season, Pierre Thomas and EB Halsey, are now gone; however, the running game should at least hold steady, as new starter Rashard Mendenhall was the #2 rusher last season, and actually had comparable stats to Thomas. The receiving corps tells a similar tale; while the Illini lose some starters here, they gain quite possibly the top incoming HS recruit in Arrelious Benn, who should be an instant star. While the offensive line was mediocre at best last year, four upperclassmen starters return, so the unit should at least be passable, and allow Williams to improve.
DEFENSE: When you look at last year's statistics, few defenses were as unlucky as Illinois, who allowed a perfectly above-average 310.2 yards per game, but allowed a decidedly below-average 26.8 points a game. Combine that with, much like the offense, tons of returning talent, and this side of the ball should also be much improved for the Illini. In fact, the only real losses on the defense are DT Josh Norris and CB Alan Ball; the former slot could be filled by a number of talented upperclassmen or yet another top recruit, D'Angelo McCray, while Ball should be replaced by soph Travon Bellamy, who has some experience, with one start and 2 INT last season.
OUTLOOK: Yes, Illinois at #5. Really. As my study in December showed, this was a horribly unlucky team, closer to 7-5 or 6-6 than the 2-10 record they actually posted, as losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue were all winnable games. Add that to the fact that it was a horrible young team last year and that almost everyone comes back, and you can see the reason for optimism. However, there are two problems: One, the schedule is fairly hellish. Illinois draws three teams an echelon above them in Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin at home, and draws a game that could go either way in Iowa (as well as Ohio State) on the road. Add to this a tough Missouri team in St. Louis, and that could be 6 losses right there. Now, while they could easily beat Missouri as well as steal one of those home and one of those road games, there's just problem: There is no reason to have faith in Ron Zook. Sadly. I want him to succeed, I really do, but he's bad at this. This could easily be a top-25 team, and based on on-field talent, they deserve this #5 ranking, but the combination of the schedule and the coach...uh oh. This should be the final benchmark as to whether or not Zook can succeed despite his continual top-five recruiting classes -- bowl eligibility or bust.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
6. Iowa
OFFENSE: Three-year starter/one-year disappointment Drew Tate leaves at QB, making way for sophomore Jake Christensen. Christensen was a top prospect coming out of HS, and he played decently over 5 games (285 yards, 2/2 TD/INT) as a redshirt frosh, so he should be at least capable. The running back corps is led by seniors Albert Young, whose talent is only matched by his injury history, and Damian Sims. If Young managed to make it through the season, he should easily surpass 1000 yards and then some, while Sims will be an above-average back if called upon. The receiving corps has gone from a weakness to a strength, as both top WR Dominique Douglas and Alamo Bowl star Andy Brodell reprise their roles as starters. Star TE Scott Chandler graduated; however, his loss is mitigated by junior TE Tony Moeaki becoming the new starter; Moeaki was highly regarded out of high school, and has done quite well in limited action over the last two seasons. The offensive line is the least experienced unit here; LT Dace Richardson and C Rafael Eubanks are in the top handful at their positions in the Big Ten, but past that, the OL loses two NFL draft picks and all-Big Ten guard Mike Jones. Part-time starter Seth Olsen should take the open right tackle spot, but the guard depth is somewhat mediocre past stud sophomore Dan Doering. However, Kirk Ferentz is somewhat of an offensive line guru, and while the Iowa O-Line isn't quite at the "Texas Tech QB" level of guaranteed success, it still shouldn't be much of a concern.
DEFENSE: Six of the front seven are returning starters, led by 2nd team Big Ten LB Mike Klinkenborg and Honorable Mention DE Bryan Mattison and DT Mitch King. Additionally, a healthy Kenny Iwebema can hopefully return to the form that made him all-Big Ten at DE in 2005. The secondary is the real concern about the defense, however. The returning CB duo of Charles Godfrey and Adam Shada should be as good as any in the conference; however, the Hawkeyes lose both starting safeties, and while the returning talent doesn't make the situation dire, it's still somewhat mediocre. Still, the defense was mediocre as a whole last season, and the returning talent, and perhaps more importantly, returning HEALTHY talent, should make the defense much-improved, especially against the run.
OUTLOOK: Iowa and Illinois are pretty much the same level of team - I gave Illinois the nudge since they easily have more talent, but Iowa is much easier to have faith in. The Hawkeyes are this year's lucky team that avoids Ohio State and Michigan, and they have an almost absurdly easy home slate, with the Illini being the only threat on the docket. At Penn State and at Wisconsin are the only probable losses, and that Illini game and at Purdue are the only two that could really go either way; quite frankly, I favor Iowa in either. The two main concerns for this team are the secondary and the offensive line; the former isn't much of a worry since the Big Ten is a running conference, and again, Kirk Ferentz deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the offensive line. Unless things completely collapse due to injury, Iowa should return to its usual path of nondescriptly winning 8-10 games.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
7. Purdue
OFFENSE: It's what the Boilermakers do best, as Purdue was the #10 overall and #5 pass offense in terms of yardage. Surprisingly, they rated nowhere near that high in scoring, so Purdue may get a little scoring bump due to regression to the mean. As for the players, well, almost everyone's back. At QB, junior Curtis Painter returns; he posted 3985 yards with a 59.4 completion percentage and a 22/19 TD/INT ratio last year - decent numbers that should be much improved this season. Also returning are two WRs that could very well be the best in the Big Ten, non-Manningham division: Notre Dame-shredding Selwyn Lymon and all-Big Ten Dorien Bryant. Also returning: #3 WR Greg Orton, starting TE Dustin Keller, and top two RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor. The only point of any concern is the offensive line, where they lose two starters with NFL talent. Still, the talent there is of a high enough quality where, in the big picture, concern shouldn't be too great. All in all, the unit should continue humming along as usual, and should increase their scoring output.
DEFENSE: Purdue had the sixth-worst yardage defense in the nation last year, but this side of the ball should be much improved, despite losing first-round DE/OLB Anthony Spencer. The line returns three of four starters, but the strength of the front seven should be the linebackers, where starters Stanford Keglar and Dan Bick return. The third spot should be filled by converted RB Anthony Heygood, who looked impressive during the spring, and top JuCo recruit Brian Ellis should also see time, likely at the MLB position. The secondary should also be much improved, as all four starters return. There's really not much to say about the Purdue defense - it's not top-tier in the conference, but should be much improved, hopefully due to more than just not playing Hawaii this season.
OUTLOOK: Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan back on the schedule, but Purdue should still remain bowl-eligible. The offense is high-powered, and the defense should at least be decent enough to keep them in almost every game (maybe not at Michigan.) This is the last of the three teams in the second tier of the Big Ten, and Purdue doesn't draw Illinois and gets Iowa at home, so there's a chance the Boilermakers could finish at #4 or 5. Purdue's somewhat of a blah team this year - there are no real swing games outside of Iowa at home, and maaaaaaybe at Indiana the last game of the season; the Boilermakers get Northwestern and Notre Dame at home, and I don't think they're good enough to beat Ohio State in West Lafayette. All in all, this season should wind up looking similar to last: 7-8 wins, and a decent bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
8. Northwestern
OFFENSE: Without 2002-2005 starting QB Brett Basanez, the Northwestern offense finished just outside the bottom ten in yardage last year, as defenses were able to stop star RB Tyrell Sutton, the Wildcats' only weapon. The starter for the final 5 games last year, junior CJ Bacher returns, and while his numbers (1172 yards, 59% comp., 6/8 TD/INT) weren't much, he should improve to the point where Sutton can return the form that made him 2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. While the team loses top WR Shaun Herbert, the rest of the top five (including Sutton) return, all part-time starters last year. Since Northwestern runs four WR sets, the fourth slot should be taken by converted QB Andrew Brewer. The Wildcats also return three starters from a fairly disappointing offensive line; the two open slots should be filled by senior Adam Crum at LG and sophomore Kurt Mattes at RT, who was a top recruit out of HS. The offense should break out of last year's doldrums, and at the very least, be decent.
DEFENSE: The defense last year can best be classified as "not quite Purdue bad." Much like the offense, things should be much improved, as there is a good amount of returning talent. The entire starting defensive line returns, but the weakness of the Wildcats D should be the linebacking corps; while MLB Adam Kadela returns and there is some starting experience at the other positions, Northwestern lost its top LB in Nick Roach, and its #3 in Demetrius Eaton, so there should be a step back. The secondary should be the strength, as three-year starters CB Deante Battle, SS Brendan Smith, and FS Reggie McPherson all return, with the fourth spot occupied by Sherrick McManis, a part-time starter who covered Ted Ginn one-on-one last year as a true frosh. Much like the offense, the defense should, at the very least, ascend to decency.
OUTLOOK: Northwestern played roughly around their 4-8 record, and with how badly their statistics are compared with the nation as a whole, it's almost a shock they did that well. Still, this is a team that should be much improved, and for more than just not having to deal with the death of their coach, like last season. Additionally, the schedule is in place for bowl-eligibility, as Northwestern gets potential trap games against Nevada, Minnesota, and Indiana at home. If the Wildcats can win at Michigan State, which is quite possible, they could even make it to 7 wins! I don't know if they'll make it to a bowl this year, but at the very least, this is a program that's rebounding its way to better places.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Michigan State
OFFENSE: Although 2004-06 starting QB Drew Stanton was a 2nd round NFL draft pick, the Michigan State offense was only average, and even Stanton's stats weren't as impressive as his reputation: 1807 yards with a 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Junior Brian Hoyer steps in, and it actually wouldn't be a surprise to see him have better stats than Stanton last year. Despite losing their top three receivers, the WR corps may also surprise, as the Spartans led the NCAA in dropped passes last season; unless lightning strikes twice, things at receiver should at the very least be a wash. Either way, the running game should be the most consistent part of the offense; top two backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick return, and 4 of 5 starters return, including stud right guard Roland Martin.
DEFENSE: Michigan State's defense rested somewhere between Northwestern and Purdue, comfortably in the lower reaches of NCAA rankings. The Spartans actually weren't too bad against the run, but the pass? Hoo boy. Things should at least slightly improve in the secondary, as starting safeties Otis Wiley and Nehemiah Warrick return. Both starting CBs may have left, but there's still some experience, including part-time starter Kendell Davis-Clark. The front seven tells much the same story - there's some valuable experience lost, but enough returning where things should be somewhat of a wash. Of course, given last year's statistics, ehhhh.
OUTLOOK: I haven't really been a fan of the Mark Dantonio hire -- I mean, sure, he's a step up from whatever John L. Smith was, but he doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can lead MSU to Big Ten titles. He seems more destined to give Michigan State the type of success that Minnesota had under Glen Mason: a hell of a lot of bowl eligibility. And speaking of, the Spartans, somewhat surprisingly, actually have a shot at bowl eligibility this season. The Spartans schedule starts off with what should be two easy home wins against UAB and Bowling Green, and their next three home games, against Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Indiana, are all winnable. Unfortunately, MSU then draws Michigan and Penn State at home, along with Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue on the road, all likely losses. That leaves at Notre Dame as the rubber game to reach .500, and the Spartans always play UND tough, and don't have John L. Smith to help them implode. All in all, I expect Michigan State to be at about the same level as last year -- fairly mediocre, but capable of pulling off an upset. Mark Dantonio'll just be doing it with a lot less talent than John L. did.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
10. Indiana
OFFENSE: QB Kellen Lewis came out of nowhere -- literally, he materialized out of nothing -- to be a revelation last year as a redshirt frosh, throwing for 2221 yards on 54.9% passing and a 14/7 TD/INT ratio. That's much better numbers than, say, a Juice Williams, and Lewis is well on his way to being an elite QB as an upperclassman. Lewis also doubled as the Hoosiers' leading rusher, but with top two backs Marcus Thigpen and Demetrius McCray returning, that hopefully shouldn't repeat. 2nd team all-Big Ten WR James Hardy leads a receiving corps that has had some losses via graduation, but also returns lots of starting experience. Also, the offensive line should be much improved, as four of five starters return, and the fifth will be experienced senior center Ben Wyss. The offense last year was in the average range, but should be improved, if only as Lewis matures behind that improved offensive line. If the running game is improved and healthier, the Hoosiers offense could be fairly surprising.
DEFENSE: While the defense wasn't as bad as Purdue's from a yardage basis, they were bottom-ten in points allowed, and were generally quite awful. Still, things should improve, as eight starters return. All of the top eight return along the defensive line, outside of top DE Kenny Kendal, and the LB corps will be much more experienced, led by Geno Johnson and Adam McClurg. The secondary should be improved, but may be the weakness of this team -- Second team Big Ten CB Tracy Porter returns, but the starter opposite him, Chris Phillips, looks to have lost his job to senior Leslie Majors. Sophomore strong safety Austin Thomas returns after starting half of last year, but free safety looks to be somewhat of a void, led by either converted kicker Joe Kleinsmith or converted receiver Nick Polk. While the defense should be improved, it doesn't feel like it's going to be much so - the best case should be that it becomes middle of the road, and either way the offense will carry this team.
OUTLOOK: The death of coach Terry Hoeppner casts a cloud over this season, and the promotion of Bill Lynch to interim head coach makes Indiana somewhat hard to evaluate. While this is an improving team with lots of reasons for optimism, the fact is, last year Indiana played two games under Lynch: at home against Southern Illinois and Connecticut. The former should have been an easy win, and the latter a 50/50 shot. The Hoosiers played poorly and lost in both. I considered putting Indiana in last given this evidence, but if I'm not going to punish Illinois for their coaching, it'd be unfair to do the same to the Hoosiers; plus, Lynch may perform better given more than a week or so's notice. Indiana also has the schedule for bowl eligibility - home games against Indiana State, Akron, Minnesota, and Ball State should all be winnable, and the Hoosiers could easily win two of three out of games at Western Michigan, at Northwestern, and at Michigan State. This year the Hoosiers should be improved, both as a statement of fact and as a must in the big picture -- a lost season here would end all momentum and could set the program back quite a bit.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
11. Minnesota
OFFENSE: Under Glen Mason, the Gophers were the Broncos of college football, even down to the cut blocking, churning out 1000-yard rushers like they were nothing. While the latest back in that tradition, Amir Pinnix, returns, Mason doesn't, and Minnesota will have to learn a new offense under Tim Brewster. There's returning talent on the offensive line, as the Gophers lose two starters but return pretty much all other notable depth, but how well things will be implemented remains to be seen. The aptitude of the running game will dictate how the offense goes, since there isn't much else returning outside of star WR Ernie Wheelwright. The Gophers offense really looks like a crapshoot as far as predictability; while a number of factors suggest a slide, new OC Mike Dunbar was the architect of some high-powered offenses at Northwestern - this could lead to a situation like Rice last year, where a team expected to have some trouble adjusting in fact suddenly flourishes in a spread-offense system.
DEFENSE: While the Minnesota D was decent scoring-wise, it was absolutely dreadful in yards/game, finishing ahead of only seven other teams. And things don't look to be getting much better, particularly after some off-field goings-on have decimated this side of the ball. The secondary looked to be a strength, but no more, as star CB Dominic Jones and #3 CB Keith Massey were both kicked off the team; the two starting safeties return, and part-time starter Desi Steib is the returning cornerback, but the loss of Jones specifically is a huge blow to the passing D. The front seven is better off, however. Potential breakout DE Alex Daniels, who actually started at running back at times last year, was also kicked off the team, but 6 of 7 starters return, led by 2nd team-Big Ten DE Willie VanDeSteeg. The team also gets a boost in Tennessee transfer DE Raymond Henderson, who was a top talent coming out of high school. Even though teams could pass on Minnesota at will, the run defense was still below-average last season; that should be the one clear improvement over last year.
OUTLOOK: My first instinct was to say that Minnesota was underrated by the pre-season mags, but after seeing how improbable a 6-6 team they were last season, and after losing Jones, Daniels, and Massey, definitely not. Head coach Tim Brewster is such an unknown that it's hard to say if it was a good or bad hire, but OC Mike Dunbar was a good hire; it's just that the transition to his offense may tank this season before any dividends can be reaped. Luckily, the Gophers have an OOC schedule of Bowling Green, Miami of Ohio, North Dakota State, and at Florida Atlantic, so they should win all of those, though they may drop one of the first two. The Gophers could've actually had a shot at surprise bowl eligibility, but they draw their two likeliest conference wins, Indiana and Northwestern, on the road. Hey, at least things should be better when the new stadium opens in 2009.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Michigan (#4 overall - AT: #8, LN: #3, SN: #3, SS: #5, ST: #6)
2. Wisconsin (#9 overall - AT: #4, LN: #6, SN: #8, SS: #3, ST: #18)
3. Ohio State (#12t overall - AT: #12, LN: #13, SN: #17, SS: #15, ST: #15)
4. Penn State (#17 overall - AT: #17, LN: #35, SN: #15, SS: #13, ST: #14)
5. Iowa (#32t overall - AT: #33, LN: #27, SN: #34, SS: --, ST: #32)
6. Purdue (#42t overall - AT: #42, LN: #51, SN: #40, SS: --, ST: #35)
7. Illinois (#52 overall - AT: #67, LN: #49, SN: #57, SS: --, ST: #43)
8. Minnesota (#63t overall - AT: #78, LN: #68, SN: #51, SS: --, ST: #74)
9. Michigan State (#67 overall - AT: #74, LN: #59, SN: #71, SS: --, ST: #70)
10. Northwestern (#68t overall - AT: #66, LN: #57, SN: #87, SS: --, ST: #67)
11. Indiana (#72 overall - AT: #60, LN: #76, SN: #74, SS: --, ST: #79)
OVERRATED: Wisconsin. They were overrated last year due to a fairly weak schedule, and while they're a very good team, they're not the #1 team in the Big Ten like some magazines have predicted.
UNDERRATED: Illinois. The Illini projected out to a 6-8 win team last year, and with almost everyone back, they're, at the very least, a top 25 darkhorse. If it wasn't for their head coach...
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Michigan
OFFENSE: The marquee value is here, as for the fourth year in a row, the offense will be spearheaded by QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, each in the top few handful of players at their position. Add to that junior WR Mario Manningham, again one of the top few players at his position, and the Wolverines probably have the best triumverate of skill position players in the nation. The offensive line is the relative weakness of this unit, but as usual for Michigan, it still should be quite strong; while two starters depart, All-American left tackle Jake Long returns, and a number of top recruits are ready to fill in those two open slots.
DEFENSE: Here's the interesting part. Through 11 games, last year's Michigan defense, under then-first year coordinator Ron English, was historically good, especially at completely nullifying whatever rushing attack was thrown at them. Even after being gashed by Ohio State and falling apart against USC, the Wolverine D still allowed only a paltry 43 rushing yards/game on the year, and were the #8 scoring defense and #6 yardage defense for the season. But that was last year. The problem this year? Almost everyone's gone. The two defensive stars left are LB Shawn Crable and safety Jamar Adams, and having to replace five of the front seven turns the secondary from a relative weakness into the defense's strength. However, things aren't completely grim; there are players with experience, such as DE Tim Jamison and safety Brandent Englemon, and recruits are at Michigan's usual high talent level, including LB Austin Panter, the first junior college signing in Ann Arbor since 1997. While experience is lacking, talent is still there, and if Ron English is as great a DC as his first season suggested, the defense should still be strong, if not at the historic pace it set last year.
OUTLOOK: I've had some trepidation about putting Michigan atop the Big Ten, but Ohio State last year set the precedent of a team being able to succeed with a strong offense and a talented but young defense. Still, Lloyd Carr having expectations worries me, and the schedule is far from a gimme. Home games against Ohio State, Penn State, and an underrated Oregon team, as well as visits to Wisconsin and maybe even Illinois (yes, Illinois), should all be tests. If the defense comes together quickly, I could see Michigan going undefeated and in fact doing so quite easily; however, there is room for disappointment.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
2. Penn State
OFFENSE: QB Anthony Morelli was a prized recruit coming out of high school, stolen at the last minute from Pittsburgh. After spending two years behind Zack Mills (remember him?) and Michael Robinson, Morelli finally got the chance to start as a junior, and quite frankly, he was kind of shitty. Still, he showed signs of improvement, and this season he should be more of a strength than a liability. RB Austin Scott was essentially the Frank Gore to Tony Hunt's Willis McGahee, as Hunt only got a chance to shine due to Scott's repeated injuries. Scott returns for one last shot, and the job is all his -- barring health problems, this should be a situation where despite losing a star starter, the Penn State running game should see little if any dropoff. The receiving corps is as strong as any in the conference, led by uber-juniors Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. This leaves the main concern, which is the offensive line. The OL loses two starters, including top-5 draft pick Levi Brown, leaving open spots at each of the two tackle positions. While there is some talent to take these spots, they don't seem to be at the level of, to use the team above that also has to replace two starters, a Michigan. While the offensive line could be much worse off, it's still the fairly glaring concern for this offensive unit.
DEFENSE: Up front is the main point of weakness for the Nittany Lions D, as the defensive line returns only one starter, DE Josh Gaines. Still, unlike the offensive line, the open slots along the defensive trenches are ready to be filled by top-tier prospects who have also had some experience as freshmen, such as Maurice Evans and Phillip Taylor. The LB corps should again be among the top few in the country, as top-tier senior Dan Connor moves from OLB to MLB, essentially becoming this year's Paul Posluszny, and talented junior Sean Lee is alongside him, essentially playing this year's Dan Connor. The secondary should be just as strong, as 3 starters return, led by junior CB Justin King, while the open CB slot should be filled by stud sophomore AJ Wallace. All in all, the combination of lots of experience and where that fails, lots of talent, should make this one of the better defenses in the country.
OUTLOOK: Penn State was the rare team that pretty much played like their record, winning and losing when they should've, short of getting lucky vs. Illinois. This may be the team with the least glaring weaknesses in the conference, as the main point of concern is losing two starters on a still fairly experienced offensive line. While Ohio State and Wisconsin are obvious concerns, they get both at home, leaving the 9/22 game at Michigan as the key to the season. And, as two years ago showed, PSU's more than capable of holding their own in the Big House. Last year's mediocre offense and top-15 defense should both improve, and Penn State, much like two years ago, is a darkhorse national title contender.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Ohio State
OFFENSE: I'll start with the obvious, quarterback, where Ohio State loses last year's best player (whose greatness has been unfairly diminished in retrospect) in Troy Smith to someone named Todd Boeckman. No, I don't know either. He's a 23-year old junior who, surprisingly, runs quicker than Troy Smith, so at the very least he should be a fine caretaker QB. In fact, the receiving corps may be a bigger concern, as the Buckeyes lost their top two WRs in Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. The unit should take an obvious step back, but should also be better than one would think, as past returning starter Brian Robiskie there's the high level of young talent you would expect from a program like Ohio State. Plus, Ginn was always fairly overrated anyway. The running game is one thing that should be fairly steady from last year, as Antonio Pittman gives way to last year's frosh sensation, Chris "Beanie" Wells. He's very good! And, as seems to be en vogue in the Big Ten this year, Ohio State is replacing two starters on the offensive line; the talent level of the replacements is below Michigan but ahead of Penn State, so this isn't a glaring concern for OSU.
DEFENSE: Similar to Penn State, there's a lot of returning talent from a top-15 defense. The weakness is the defensive line, where only All-Big Ten 2nd teamer Vernon Gholston returns. There's enough talent on the depth chart to still be very good, but compared to other parts of the defense, this should be the weakness throughout the year. The linebackers, however, should be absolutely fine, as this unit is absolutely loaded. Slightly overrated but still great Nagurski winner James Laurinaitis returns in the middle, and he's flanked by returning starter Marcus Freeman and last year's top-tier JuCo recruit, Larry Grant. Essentially, the Ohio State LB corps is the defensive equivalent of USC's running backs in terms of depth, as the third string is probably better than the starting units for most teams. The secondary should also be a strength, as the Buckeyes return All-Big Ten CB Malcolm Jenkins opposite sophomore Donald Washington, who started 9 games last season, in addition to top-tier strong safety Jamario O'Neal. Free safety may be a weakness, as OSU loses starter Brandon Mitchell, but the unit as a whole should not see much of a dropoff.
OUTLOOK: Although the defense was slightly overrated last year, the team wasn't, and if anything, has been underrated in retrospect after the national championship loss. They were really good, people. Anyway, with almost everyone returning, this year's defense may live up to last year's reputation, and should be more than enough to carry the offense through any growing pains. OSU also lucks out with the schedule, as a game at Purdue is the only even marginal test in the first eight, so the offense should be humming by the final four of @ Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, vs., Illinois, and of course, @ Michigan. The Buckeyes should lose at least one of those two road games, but really, given the talent, the layout of the schedule, and the fact that, hey, Jim Tressel is a very good coach, it honestly wouldn't be a shock if Ohio State somehow found its way back in the title game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-12 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
4. Wisconsin
OFFENSE: The good news is that nine of eleven starters return. The bad news is the two who leave: three-year starting QB John Stocco and all-galaxy left tackle Joe Thomas. Still, the situation isn't completely dire; the QB depth chart is led by experienced senior Tyler Donovan and Kansas State transfer Allen Evridge, while stud sophomore Jake Bscherer looks to be the replacement for Thomas. As for the guys who return, they're led by last year's freshman AA running back PJ Hill, and 2nd team Big Ten TE Travis Beckum. All in all, the Wisconsin offense returns an experienced upperclassman (or PJ Hill) pretty much everywhere, but perhaps more importantly, they've also built talented depth, including stud recruits such as RB John Clay and OL Josh Oglesby.
DEFENSE: The defense was Wisconsin's strength last year as they had kind of a mini-Michigan thing going on, and after Michigan's late-season struggles, Wisconsin actually only finished behind Virginia Tech and LSU in yards allowed per game. While the defense doesn't have as much returning as the offense, this is still an experienced unit. Three of four starters return along the defensive line, and the fourth slot should be filled by part-time starting DE Kurt Ware. The linebacking corps also has one open slot, but rather than a senior, the MLB slot should be filled by talented sophomore Elijah Hodge, brother of Virginia standout and current Green Bay Packer Abdul. The secondary is the weakness of the D; while the Badgers return both starting CBs, including all-Big Ten Jack Ikegwuonu, neither of the new safeties is an upperclassmen nor an especially highly touted recruit.
OUTLOOK: Last year, Wisconsin did in fact play like a double-digit win team, but one thing always nagged at me: who'd they really play? They missed Ohio State, and Michigan pretty much stomped them for their one loss of the year. After that, the best team they faced was either a solid but unspectacular Penn State team, or the quite overrated Arkansas Razorbacks in the Capital One Bowl. Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly as far as overrated teams go; they weren't a team like Maryland who had a number of lucky wins (the Badgers' only real break was vs. Illinois), but rather had an inflated record simply due to a pretty weak schedule. Now, the Badgers do in fact have a lot of returning talent; still, I think this is more of a top-15 level team than the Big Ten championship favorite that some magazines have touted them as. They should have more than enough to beat, say, Iowa at home, fairly convincingly, but in games at Penn State or Ohio State, I wouldn't classify them as a heavy favorite, if even a favorite at all. Again, they should be an upper-echelon team, but the talent level has me thinking more "Big Ten title contender" rather than "national title contender."
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Illinois
OFFENSE: Might as well start with the QB, especially when he has one of the best names in the NCAA. Juice Williams was a stud recruit and started 9 games last year as a true freshman, even if he only threw for 1489 yards, a 9/9 TD/INT ratio, and an..interesting 39.5% completion rate. Still, with Williams's own talent, as well as how improved the offense should be in general, Juice should at least be respectable this coming year. Both starters at running back from last season, Pierre Thomas and EB Halsey, are now gone; however, the running game should at least hold steady, as new starter Rashard Mendenhall was the #2 rusher last season, and actually had comparable stats to Thomas. The receiving corps tells a similar tale; while the Illini lose some starters here, they gain quite possibly the top incoming HS recruit in Arrelious Benn, who should be an instant star. While the offensive line was mediocre at best last year, four upperclassmen starters return, so the unit should at least be passable, and allow Williams to improve.
DEFENSE: When you look at last year's statistics, few defenses were as unlucky as Illinois, who allowed a perfectly above-average 310.2 yards per game, but allowed a decidedly below-average 26.8 points a game. Combine that with, much like the offense, tons of returning talent, and this side of the ball should also be much improved for the Illini. In fact, the only real losses on the defense are DT Josh Norris and CB Alan Ball; the former slot could be filled by a number of talented upperclassmen or yet another top recruit, D'Angelo McCray, while Ball should be replaced by soph Travon Bellamy, who has some experience, with one start and 2 INT last season.
OUTLOOK: Yes, Illinois at #5. Really. As my study in December showed, this was a horribly unlucky team, closer to 7-5 or 6-6 than the 2-10 record they actually posted, as losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue were all winnable games. Add that to the fact that it was a horrible young team last year and that almost everyone comes back, and you can see the reason for optimism. However, there are two problems: One, the schedule is fairly hellish. Illinois draws three teams an echelon above them in Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin at home, and draws a game that could go either way in Iowa (as well as Ohio State) on the road. Add to this a tough Missouri team in St. Louis, and that could be 6 losses right there. Now, while they could easily beat Missouri as well as steal one of those home and one of those road games, there's just problem: There is no reason to have faith in Ron Zook. Sadly. I want him to succeed, I really do, but he's bad at this. This could easily be a top-25 team, and based on on-field talent, they deserve this #5 ranking, but the combination of the schedule and the coach...uh oh. This should be the final benchmark as to whether or not Zook can succeed despite his continual top-five recruiting classes -- bowl eligibility or bust.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 1-5 conference wins
6. Iowa
OFFENSE: Three-year starter/one-year disappointment Drew Tate leaves at QB, making way for sophomore Jake Christensen. Christensen was a top prospect coming out of HS, and he played decently over 5 games (285 yards, 2/2 TD/INT) as a redshirt frosh, so he should be at least capable. The running back corps is led by seniors Albert Young, whose talent is only matched by his injury history, and Damian Sims. If Young managed to make it through the season, he should easily surpass 1000 yards and then some, while Sims will be an above-average back if called upon. The receiving corps has gone from a weakness to a strength, as both top WR Dominique Douglas and Alamo Bowl star Andy Brodell reprise their roles as starters. Star TE Scott Chandler graduated; however, his loss is mitigated by junior TE Tony Moeaki becoming the new starter; Moeaki was highly regarded out of high school, and has done quite well in limited action over the last two seasons. The offensive line is the least experienced unit here; LT Dace Richardson and C Rafael Eubanks are in the top handful at their positions in the Big Ten, but past that, the OL loses two NFL draft picks and all-Big Ten guard Mike Jones. Part-time starter Seth Olsen should take the open right tackle spot, but the guard depth is somewhat mediocre past stud sophomore Dan Doering. However, Kirk Ferentz is somewhat of an offensive line guru, and while the Iowa O-Line isn't quite at the "Texas Tech QB" level of guaranteed success, it still shouldn't be much of a concern.
DEFENSE: Six of the front seven are returning starters, led by 2nd team Big Ten LB Mike Klinkenborg and Honorable Mention DE Bryan Mattison and DT Mitch King. Additionally, a healthy Kenny Iwebema can hopefully return to the form that made him all-Big Ten at DE in 2005. The secondary is the real concern about the defense, however. The returning CB duo of Charles Godfrey and Adam Shada should be as good as any in the conference; however, the Hawkeyes lose both starting safeties, and while the returning talent doesn't make the situation dire, it's still somewhat mediocre. Still, the defense was mediocre as a whole last season, and the returning talent, and perhaps more importantly, returning HEALTHY talent, should make the defense much-improved, especially against the run.
OUTLOOK: Iowa and Illinois are pretty much the same level of team - I gave Illinois the nudge since they easily have more talent, but Iowa is much easier to have faith in. The Hawkeyes are this year's lucky team that avoids Ohio State and Michigan, and they have an almost absurdly easy home slate, with the Illini being the only threat on the docket. At Penn State and at Wisconsin are the only probable losses, and that Illini game and at Purdue are the only two that could really go either way; quite frankly, I favor Iowa in either. The two main concerns for this team are the secondary and the offensive line; the former isn't much of a worry since the Big Ten is a running conference, and again, Kirk Ferentz deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the offensive line. Unless things completely collapse due to injury, Iowa should return to its usual path of nondescriptly winning 8-10 games.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
7. Purdue
OFFENSE: It's what the Boilermakers do best, as Purdue was the #10 overall and #5 pass offense in terms of yardage. Surprisingly, they rated nowhere near that high in scoring, so Purdue may get a little scoring bump due to regression to the mean. As for the players, well, almost everyone's back. At QB, junior Curtis Painter returns; he posted 3985 yards with a 59.4 completion percentage and a 22/19 TD/INT ratio last year - decent numbers that should be much improved this season. Also returning are two WRs that could very well be the best in the Big Ten, non-Manningham division: Notre Dame-shredding Selwyn Lymon and all-Big Ten Dorien Bryant. Also returning: #3 WR Greg Orton, starting TE Dustin Keller, and top two RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor. The only point of any concern is the offensive line, where they lose two starters with NFL talent. Still, the talent there is of a high enough quality where, in the big picture, concern shouldn't be too great. All in all, the unit should continue humming along as usual, and should increase their scoring output.
DEFENSE: Purdue had the sixth-worst yardage defense in the nation last year, but this side of the ball should be much improved, despite losing first-round DE/OLB Anthony Spencer. The line returns three of four starters, but the strength of the front seven should be the linebackers, where starters Stanford Keglar and Dan Bick return. The third spot should be filled by converted RB Anthony Heygood, who looked impressive during the spring, and top JuCo recruit Brian Ellis should also see time, likely at the MLB position. The secondary should also be much improved, as all four starters return. There's really not much to say about the Purdue defense - it's not top-tier in the conference, but should be much improved, hopefully due to more than just not playing Hawaii this season.
OUTLOOK: Purdue gets Ohio State and Michigan back on the schedule, but Purdue should still remain bowl-eligible. The offense is high-powered, and the defense should at least be decent enough to keep them in almost every game (maybe not at Michigan.) This is the last of the three teams in the second tier of the Big Ten, and Purdue doesn't draw Illinois and gets Iowa at home, so there's a chance the Boilermakers could finish at #4 or 5. Purdue's somewhat of a blah team this year - there are no real swing games outside of Iowa at home, and maaaaaaybe at Indiana the last game of the season; the Boilermakers get Northwestern and Notre Dame at home, and I don't think they're good enough to beat Ohio State in West Lafayette. All in all, this season should wind up looking similar to last: 7-8 wins, and a decent bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
8. Northwestern
OFFENSE: Without 2002-2005 starting QB Brett Basanez, the Northwestern offense finished just outside the bottom ten in yardage last year, as defenses were able to stop star RB Tyrell Sutton, the Wildcats' only weapon. The starter for the final 5 games last year, junior CJ Bacher returns, and while his numbers (1172 yards, 59% comp., 6/8 TD/INT) weren't much, he should improve to the point where Sutton can return the form that made him 2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. While the team loses top WR Shaun Herbert, the rest of the top five (including Sutton) return, all part-time starters last year. Since Northwestern runs four WR sets, the fourth slot should be taken by converted QB Andrew Brewer. The Wildcats also return three starters from a fairly disappointing offensive line; the two open slots should be filled by senior Adam Crum at LG and sophomore Kurt Mattes at RT, who was a top recruit out of HS. The offense should break out of last year's doldrums, and at the very least, be decent.
DEFENSE: The defense last year can best be classified as "not quite Purdue bad." Much like the offense, things should be much improved, as there is a good amount of returning talent. The entire starting defensive line returns, but the weakness of the Wildcats D should be the linebacking corps; while MLB Adam Kadela returns and there is some starting experience at the other positions, Northwestern lost its top LB in Nick Roach, and its #3 in Demetrius Eaton, so there should be a step back. The secondary should be the strength, as three-year starters CB Deante Battle, SS Brendan Smith, and FS Reggie McPherson all return, with the fourth spot occupied by Sherrick McManis, a part-time starter who covered Ted Ginn one-on-one last year as a true frosh. Much like the offense, the defense should, at the very least, ascend to decency.
OUTLOOK: Northwestern played roughly around their 4-8 record, and with how badly their statistics are compared with the nation as a whole, it's almost a shock they did that well. Still, this is a team that should be much improved, and for more than just not having to deal with the death of their coach, like last season. Additionally, the schedule is in place for bowl-eligibility, as Northwestern gets potential trap games against Nevada, Minnesota, and Indiana at home. If the Wildcats can win at Michigan State, which is quite possible, they could even make it to 7 wins! I don't know if they'll make it to a bowl this year, but at the very least, this is a program that's rebounding its way to better places.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Michigan State
OFFENSE: Although 2004-06 starting QB Drew Stanton was a 2nd round NFL draft pick, the Michigan State offense was only average, and even Stanton's stats weren't as impressive as his reputation: 1807 yards with a 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Junior Brian Hoyer steps in, and it actually wouldn't be a surprise to see him have better stats than Stanton last year. Despite losing their top three receivers, the WR corps may also surprise, as the Spartans led the NCAA in dropped passes last season; unless lightning strikes twice, things at receiver should at the very least be a wash. Either way, the running game should be the most consistent part of the offense; top two backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick return, and 4 of 5 starters return, including stud right guard Roland Martin.
DEFENSE: Michigan State's defense rested somewhere between Northwestern and Purdue, comfortably in the lower reaches of NCAA rankings. The Spartans actually weren't too bad against the run, but the pass? Hoo boy. Things should at least slightly improve in the secondary, as starting safeties Otis Wiley and Nehemiah Warrick return. Both starting CBs may have left, but there's still some experience, including part-time starter Kendell Davis-Clark. The front seven tells much the same story - there's some valuable experience lost, but enough returning where things should be somewhat of a wash. Of course, given last year's statistics, ehhhh.
OUTLOOK: I haven't really been a fan of the Mark Dantonio hire -- I mean, sure, he's a step up from whatever John L. Smith was, but he doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can lead MSU to Big Ten titles. He seems more destined to give Michigan State the type of success that Minnesota had under Glen Mason: a hell of a lot of bowl eligibility. And speaking of, the Spartans, somewhat surprisingly, actually have a shot at bowl eligibility this season. The Spartans schedule starts off with what should be two easy home wins against UAB and Bowling Green, and their next three home games, against Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Indiana, are all winnable. Unfortunately, MSU then draws Michigan and Penn State at home, along with Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue on the road, all likely losses. That leaves at Notre Dame as the rubber game to reach .500, and the Spartans always play UND tough, and don't have John L. Smith to help them implode. All in all, I expect Michigan State to be at about the same level as last year -- fairly mediocre, but capable of pulling off an upset. Mark Dantonio'll just be doing it with a lot less talent than John L. did.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
10. Indiana
OFFENSE: QB Kellen Lewis came out of nowhere -- literally, he materialized out of nothing -- to be a revelation last year as a redshirt frosh, throwing for 2221 yards on 54.9% passing and a 14/7 TD/INT ratio. That's much better numbers than, say, a Juice Williams, and Lewis is well on his way to being an elite QB as an upperclassman. Lewis also doubled as the Hoosiers' leading rusher, but with top two backs Marcus Thigpen and Demetrius McCray returning, that hopefully shouldn't repeat. 2nd team all-Big Ten WR James Hardy leads a receiving corps that has had some losses via graduation, but also returns lots of starting experience. Also, the offensive line should be much improved, as four of five starters return, and the fifth will be experienced senior center Ben Wyss. The offense last year was in the average range, but should be improved, if only as Lewis matures behind that improved offensive line. If the running game is improved and healthier, the Hoosiers offense could be fairly surprising.
DEFENSE: While the defense wasn't as bad as Purdue's from a yardage basis, they were bottom-ten in points allowed, and were generally quite awful. Still, things should improve, as eight starters return. All of the top eight return along the defensive line, outside of top DE Kenny Kendal, and the LB corps will be much more experienced, led by Geno Johnson and Adam McClurg. The secondary should be improved, but may be the weakness of this team -- Second team Big Ten CB Tracy Porter returns, but the starter opposite him, Chris Phillips, looks to have lost his job to senior Leslie Majors. Sophomore strong safety Austin Thomas returns after starting half of last year, but free safety looks to be somewhat of a void, led by either converted kicker Joe Kleinsmith or converted receiver Nick Polk. While the defense should be improved, it doesn't feel like it's going to be much so - the best case should be that it becomes middle of the road, and either way the offense will carry this team.
OUTLOOK: The death of coach Terry Hoeppner casts a cloud over this season, and the promotion of Bill Lynch to interim head coach makes Indiana somewhat hard to evaluate. While this is an improving team with lots of reasons for optimism, the fact is, last year Indiana played two games under Lynch: at home against Southern Illinois and Connecticut. The former should have been an easy win, and the latter a 50/50 shot. The Hoosiers played poorly and lost in both. I considered putting Indiana in last given this evidence, but if I'm not going to punish Illinois for their coaching, it'd be unfair to do the same to the Hoosiers; plus, Lynch may perform better given more than a week or so's notice. Indiana also has the schedule for bowl eligibility - home games against Indiana State, Akron, Minnesota, and Ball State should all be winnable, and the Hoosiers could easily win two of three out of games at Western Michigan, at Northwestern, and at Michigan State. This year the Hoosiers should be improved, both as a statement of fact and as a must in the big picture -- a lost season here would end all momentum and could set the program back quite a bit.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
11. Minnesota
OFFENSE: Under Glen Mason, the Gophers were the Broncos of college football, even down to the cut blocking, churning out 1000-yard rushers like they were nothing. While the latest back in that tradition, Amir Pinnix, returns, Mason doesn't, and Minnesota will have to learn a new offense under Tim Brewster. There's returning talent on the offensive line, as the Gophers lose two starters but return pretty much all other notable depth, but how well things will be implemented remains to be seen. The aptitude of the running game will dictate how the offense goes, since there isn't much else returning outside of star WR Ernie Wheelwright. The Gophers offense really looks like a crapshoot as far as predictability; while a number of factors suggest a slide, new OC Mike Dunbar was the architect of some high-powered offenses at Northwestern - this could lead to a situation like Rice last year, where a team expected to have some trouble adjusting in fact suddenly flourishes in a spread-offense system.
DEFENSE: While the Minnesota D was decent scoring-wise, it was absolutely dreadful in yards/game, finishing ahead of only seven other teams. And things don't look to be getting much better, particularly after some off-field goings-on have decimated this side of the ball. The secondary looked to be a strength, but no more, as star CB Dominic Jones and #3 CB Keith Massey were both kicked off the team; the two starting safeties return, and part-time starter Desi Steib is the returning cornerback, but the loss of Jones specifically is a huge blow to the passing D. The front seven is better off, however. Potential breakout DE Alex Daniels, who actually started at running back at times last year, was also kicked off the team, but 6 of 7 starters return, led by 2nd team-Big Ten DE Willie VanDeSteeg. The team also gets a boost in Tennessee transfer DE Raymond Henderson, who was a top talent coming out of high school. Even though teams could pass on Minnesota at will, the run defense was still below-average last season; that should be the one clear improvement over last year.
OUTLOOK: My first instinct was to say that Minnesota was underrated by the pre-season mags, but after seeing how improbable a 6-6 team they were last season, and after losing Jones, Daniels, and Massey, definitely not. Head coach Tim Brewster is such an unknown that it's hard to say if it was a good or bad hire, but OC Mike Dunbar was a good hire; it's just that the transition to his offense may tank this season before any dividends can be reaped. Luckily, the Gophers have an OOC schedule of Bowling Green, Miami of Ohio, North Dakota State, and at Florida Atlantic, so they should win all of those, though they may drop one of the first two. The Gophers could've actually had a shot at surprise bowl eligibility, but they draw their two likeliest conference wins, Indiana and Northwestern, on the road. Hey, at least things should be better when the new stadium opens in 2009.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Monday, July 09, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE BIG EAST
Sorry about the long wait, my...tens? of readers. It's really been a crazy time, with all the adventures that have kept me away from my blog, but I'm not at liberty to talk about what's been going on. They're making a movie based on it, I have to keep it all hush hush. Those are all lies. I've actually been busy with finals, then conducting a job search (which is still underway -- hire me!), wading through preview magazines, and, recently, being quite sick. But fear not, I have returned, and I come bearing gifts! The gift -- of the 2007 NCAA Previewtacular. First, my wheelhouse, being a UConn grad: THE BIG EAST!
THE CONSENSUS:
(Based on averages of the rankings from Athlon, Lindy's, Phil Steele's power poll near the back of his book, and The Sporting News's preview magazines. The "overall" ranking is not that average, but rather the rank of their average versus that of the other 118 I-A schools.
Oh, and the KEY:
AT: Athlon
LN: Lindy's
SN: The Sporting News
SS: Street & Smith's (not included in the average as they only have a top 25, rather than ranking all 119 teams)
ST: Phil Steele's power poll)
1. West Virginia (#3 overall - AT: #5, LN: #4, SN: #4, SS: #2, ST: #5)
2. Louisville (#8 overall - AT #13, LN: #9, SN: #9, SS: #10, ST: #4)
3. Rutgers (#19 overall - AT #10, LN: #16, SN: #19, SS #19, ST: #39)
4. South Florida (#25 overall - AT: #31, LN: #26, SN: #21, SS: --, ST: #30)
5. Pittsburgh (#54 overall - AT: #55, LN: #60, SN: #55, SS: --, ST: #56)
6. Cincinnati (#57 overall - AT: #53, LN: #52, SN: #81, SS: --, ST: #58)
7. Connecticut (#82 overall - AT: #80, LN: #82, SN: #100, SS: --, ST: #71)
8. Syracuse (#101 overall - AT: #99, LN: #89, SN: #105, SS: --, ST: #97)
OVERRATED: Rutgers. Most overrated team in the nation, easy. This was roughly a 7-8 win team last year rather than a national title contender, as Rutgers had a few close wins which could've easily gone the other way. Funnily enough, though, their schedule may be weak enough where they can pull off another 10-win season.
UNDERRATED: Cincinnati. 8-4 season, played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers, all their non-Ohio State losses were fairly close, aaand they probably wound up with a better head coach than they had before. The coaching change is a concern, but still. However, they may be the anti-Rutgers, as they draw all of their Big East peers (USF, Rutgers and Pitt) on the road.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS:
(Done power-poll style. I floated the idea of ranking it based on expected wins, but it's easier this way for when I do my top 25, which again, will be power-poll style.)
1. West Virginia
And barely. Might as well start with the obvious stars of the show, QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton. Exciting, lightning-quick, whatever adjectives you want to use basically boil down to two words: Holy shit! And WR Darius Reynaud gives them a top player at each offensive skill position, even though a #2 needs to emerge. The defense was average last year, but they're helped by a lot of experience returning for 2007. WVU runs a 3-3-5, returns 2/3 of their DL, and while the LB corps loses some starters, they return #4 tackler Reed Williams among other upperclassmen. The secondary was the weakness of the D last year, though, barely making the top 100 nationally in terms of pass yards allowed. However, what was a weakness may become a strength, as WVU returns starters at all 4 of the traditional secondary positions, as well as adding highly touted JuCo CB Ellis Lankster and Michigan transfer/2-year starter Ryan Mundy at safety. There's still some concern for the team as a whole, though -- they replace OL coach Rick Trickett, as well as the star of their O-line, Dan Mozes, and South Florida, Cincinnati, and Rutgers could all be dangerous on the road. Still, the concerns are slightly less worrying than those of Louisville, who, yes, WVU has at home, so the Mountaineers are the slight favorite in the Big East.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
2. Louisville
Gotta start with the Cardinals' Heisman candidate, coulda-been-a-Raider QB Brian Brohm, who even for Colt Brennan fans like myself, is pretty much easily the #1 signal-caller in the country. Despite the occasional injury problem, Brohm has a career 66% completion percentage, and a 41/12 TD/INT ratio. And hey, the rest of the offense is pretty good, too! Brohm has two all-Big East caliber WRs to throw to in Harry Douglas and 6'6" Mario Urrutia, and the running game will likely be led by sophomore Anthony Allen, who had only 406 rushing yards last season, but scored 14 TDs. They do have to replace two starters on the OL, so that may be a concern; however, those positions will likely be filled by seniors, rather than someone thrown to the wolves. So, yeah, Louisville returns almost everyone from the #2 yardage and #3 scoring offense (tied with -- West Virginia!) in the country. The defense may be more of a concern, however. The front seven may not be much of a worry, as despite the losses of DT Amobi Okoye and LB Brandon Johnson, those positions will be filled with upperclassmen or, dare I speculate, extremely talented ex-Miami LB/felon Willie Williams. The weakness of Louisville, instead, looks to be the secondary. Last year's unit can be described as "not especially great", and must replace three starters: CB William Gay and safeties Gavin Smart and Brandon Sharp. All may not be lost, since the secondary gains both Rod Council, a CB with star potential who missed most of '06 due to injury, and highly touted JuCo CB Woodny Turenne. While there is still some experience, this type of turnover on a unit that wasn't that strong to begin with is somewhat of a worry. Then there's the coaching change from Bobby Petrino to Steve Kragthorpe, which actually may be a non-factor for the time being, as Kragthorpe keeps both co-OC Jeff Brohm (Brian's brother) and DC Mike Cassity from Petrino's staff. The case can easily be made for Louisville over West Virginia, but both the coaching change, as minor a hitch as it may be, and the loss of two stars like Okoye and Gay are just enough for me to put Louisville at #2.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
3. South Florida
When Phil Steele said he almost predicted USF to win the Big East, I was like "Phil Steele? More like Phil Crazy." But the more I look at this team, the more I like them, and the more I see that, yes, South Florida in the BCS is a distinct possibility. As per the standard, we'll start with the offense. QB Matt Grothe was a one-man show last year, going from unheralded freshman backup at the start of the year to, in the end, leading the time in yards both through the air and on the ground. And he has help! The hole at RB will hopefully be filled by prep stud Mike Ford (quite possibly the top recruit in USF history), and while the WR corps loses two starters, those holes will be filled by Amarri Jackson (11 starts and probably their star WR in '05) and Taurus Johnson (honorable mention all-Big East despite only 2 starts last year.) Oh, and the entire offense line returns. So, as long as Grothe doesn't suffer some sort of sophomore slump (like that alliteration?), the Bulls offense should be fine. On defense, the situation is similar, as lots of starters return. All four starters return on the defensive line, and the lone hole in the secondary (free safety) will be filled by part-time starting strong safety Danny Verpaele. The only major losses are in the LB corps, last year's most talented part of the defense, but the Bulls return leading tackler Ben Moffitt, and the two open slots will be filled by either promising talent (LeBrandon Glover, Donte Spires) or transfers from other BCS schools (Tyrone McKenzie from Michigan State, Marvin Peoples from Iowa State.) So, yeah, USF has lots of returning talent on both sides of the ball, and just as much potential. The Bulls are probably, in fact, closer to the "Big Two" than to the rest of the Big East pack. While the OOC schedule does include a difficult game at Auburn, USF does host both West Virginia and Louisville; winning 2 out of those 3 games wouldn't surprise me, and yes, this could be a very big year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Rutgers
I had Rutgers at #5 until the last moment, and as overrated as this team is on a national level, this almost seems too low. But I guess that's what happens when you see a team plastered on the cover of Athlon as #10 in the nation. Now, Greg Schiano's done a great job building this program, but national title contender? Really? Any hope whatsoever of Rutgers living up to the hype will have to begin with QB Mike Teel, who threw for 2135 yards with a 12/13 ratio last year. While he was highly touted out of HS, which suggests the talent is there for a breakout year, I'll believe it when I see it. But the star of the show, and the man adorning essentially every preview magazine cover in the Northeast, is RB Ray Rice. And, well, he's very good! Still, I have some trepidation, much like Rutgers as a whole, about Rice's ability to repeat last season, between the loss of Brian Leonard and some losses along the offensive line. OG Cameron Stephenson graduated, but that hole will be filled with either experience or uber-recruit Anthony Davis. However, Rutgers graduated their top two centers, so there'll be a hole in the middle. It could be worse, but I'm still somewhat skeptical of the running game in light of Rice now being the sole back and losing some talent on the OL; then again, I seem to be in the minority in viewing Rice as simply a very talented back than the kind of uber-back who can succeed in any situation at the level of, say, a McFadden or a Slaton. The defense, which was excellent last year, experiences quite a bit of turnover as well. The result is somewhat of a mixed bag -- while the front seven has faced heavy losses (1 DE, 1 DT, 2 LB), the open spots should be in the hands of highly touted talent, such a frosh LB Manny Abreu. In the secondary, which was one of the best in the nation last year, 3 of the 4 starters return; however, the open spot at CB has neither a top recruit or an experienced upperclassman to fill it, unless you count junior Anthony Miller, who has spent the last two years redshirted and suspended. Still, three out of four ain't bad, especially when you had the #7 pass defense in the country. Even if national title aspirations are a bit, well, insane, Rutgers still has the schedule (and, frankly, the defense) to pull off an 11-win season -- they get Louisville on the road, but also easily beatable Syracuse and Connecticut, they get USF and WVU at home, and their OOC schedule is a joke: Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk, and Maryland at home, and then a road game at Army. Seriously now. So, yeah, I fully suspect that most of the year will be spent yelling about how Rutgers really isn't THAT good while they're sitting in the top ten. Fun.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-11 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Cincinnati
Oh, so close, but Rutgers' statistical dominance on defense made me nudge them ahead of the Bearcats. But, yeah, these teams are much closer in talent than their records will probably indicate. Schedule aside, both teams projected at about the same level last year, and the big question here is "Will Cincinnati's experience help them more than the coaching change will hurt them?" And I will say YES!, partially because I love Brian Kelly and think his hire will be more Todd Graham (even if Rice was lucky last year) than Greg Robinson. On offense, the Bearcats return pretty much everyone at the skill positions, losing only TE Brent Celek from the receiving corps. They also have a number of new arrivals; ex-Wake Forest QB Ben Mauk, all-time HS passing leader and subject of the sentence "Ben Mauk getting hurt led to Riley Skinner leading Wake to the ACC title," will battle Dustin Grutza for the starting job, while ex-Michigan RB Mister Simpson will hope to academically qualify and have an awesome name. The O-line loses three starters, but star RG Trevor Canfield returns, and those three spots will be filled from considerable OL depth. On defense, six of the front seven return, and the major losses are CB John Bowie and SS Dominic Ross. While those losses hurt, the Cincinnati pass D should still be decent at the very worst, as the two returning starters, CB Mike Mickens and SS Haruki Nakamura, have all-Big East level talent. Cincinnati has quite a range of possibilities, depending on how the secondary losses and the coaching change affect things. Unfortunately, the schedule isn't very forgiving; while Cincy drops Ohio State and Virginia Tech out of conference, they still play a solid Oregon State team, have only one winnable home conference game in Connecticut, and play teams they're close in talent to (Pitt, USF, Rutgers) all on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
6. Pittsburgh
Hoo boy. There's potential here, as Dave Wannstedt has continually brought in very good recruiting classes, there's just the question if they'll ever fulfill it, partly because they're coached by, well, Dave Wannstedt. On offense, the big concern is replacing three-year starting QB Tyler Palko. The main contenders seem to be junior Bill Stull or top frosh Pat Bostick, but at any rate, whoever wins the starting job will have a lot of help. The Panthers surprisingly had a top-15 scoring offense last year, and return top RB LaRod Stephens-Dowling, FB Conredge Collins, more or less the entire receiving corps short of the tight end, and 4/5 of the offensive line, with the one open slot being filled by a three-year backup. Oh, and they add top-flight frosh RB LeSean McCoy. So, while the offense may take a bit of a step back, the running game should be more than enough to carry the load. Surprisingly, for a team coached by Wannstedt, the defense last year was ehhhhh, especially considering they have to replace NFL draft choices Darrelle Revis, H.B. Blades and Clint Session. The defensive line returns everyone, but past that, it's turnover turnover turnover. CB Kennard Cox and SS Mike Phillips are the only returning defensive starters outside of the DL, and outside of that, it's nothing but shiny talent, mostly of the sophomore and junior variety. Again, there's a lot of potential, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and the conference schedule is somewhat favorable, with UConn, Cincy, Cuse and USF coming to Pitt, and the first three being quite winnable. Out of conference, the Michigan State and Virginia games would be much better served to be at home (obviously), but one out of two isn't out of the question. This looks like a rebuilding year for Pitt, though oddly enough, it may be one in which they get back to a bowl game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 wins overall, 2-4 conference wins
7. Connecticut
Sigh. Oh Connecticut, you were so promising, what happened? Well, just some bad luck last season, more or less. And ignoring some subpar recruiting, namely the Aaron Hernandez fiasco (QB's brother is the top HS TE and decommits to go to Florida.) UConn had a few games that were winnable, namely Wake, Syracuse, and even Rutgers, that they...well, didn't. So, as a result, UConn's probably closer to the middle of the Big East pack than the dregs (Syracuse.) Still, this doesn't mean the Huskies don't have some glaring problems, namely -- segueway alert -- the quarterback position! Although ex-QB (now WR) DJ Hernandez was electrifying against Pittsburgh last season, the passing game was, well, fucking terrible. Fucking terrible like Chris Berman announcing the home run derby right now. Sorry about that. ANYWAY. The offense was more or less a horrible mess, between the #110 passing game in the country and an often-injured offensive line. The lone bright spot was sophomore RB Donald Brown, who had 896 yards on 5.6 YPC as a frosh, and seems to be the consensus #3 RB in the conference behind Slaton and Rice. But, things may be looking up for the Huskies offense. Brown returns, and all those injuries on the OL last year mean lots of depth this year. And then there's the man who's probably going to make or break Connecticut's season: the top incoming JuCo QB in the country, Tyler Lorenzen. The 2960 yards, 26/3 TD/INT ratio, 836 rushing yards line Lorenzen had last season more or less doubles the output of the QBs last year. Lorenzen will need to come through for the Huskies offense to be any good; even if he doesn't, Brown may be enough to carry it to "respectable" over a full season, and hey, there's always ex-Notre Dame QB Zach Fraser in 2008. The defense, usually a strength, was a mixed bag last season, and may be the same this coming year. The rush defense was horrible last year, giving up 221 rushing yards to Louisville, 275 to West Virginia, and, oh yeah, 504 to Navy. And, to make matters worse, UConn loses both starting DTs, Rhema Fuller and Ray Blagman. Still, the other 6 of the top 8 return along the defensive line, so things may not be completely dire. The linebacker corps should once again be a strength, as two of the three slots will be filled by star seniors Danny Lansanah and Ryan Henegan, and the other by spring game standout Scott Lutrus or Jarrell Miller, likely the top signee in UConn history. And, much like the D-line, the secondary has both good news and bad news. The good news is that the secondary was one of the better ones in the country (though quite possibly since everyone was too busy running the ball), and CB duo Darius Butler and Tyvon Branch are as good as any in the conference. The bad news is that lost both starters at safety. Still, the two open slots should go to experienced senior Donnell Ford and part-time starter Robert Vaughn, so with the strength at CB, the secondary should be a strength on the whole. As for the season outlook, it's pretty much dependent on Tyler Lorenzen and to a lesser extent, the run defense. With Lorenzen doing well, games at Virginia, Cincinnati or hosting Rutgers suddenly become winnable. If the passing game remains in the doldrums, Donald Brown should be enough to beat Temple, Maine, and probably Duke, and if the defense plays pretty well, maybe they can steal a conference game. So, yeah, if the passing game doesn't come through, it'll be last year all over again. And hey, then there'll at least be Zach Fraser in 2008. Though maybe not coach Randy Edsall.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-8 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
8. Syracuse
I could leave it at "They were even worse than that record last year showed, and they have the least returning starters in the conference." But, god help me, I'm gonna go dig into Syracuse in depth. Pardon while I hold my nose. Might as well hold pattern and start with the offense. At QB, Cuse loses longtime starter/bust Perry Patterson, and replace him with highly touted QB of the future Andrew Robinson. While Robinson is a sophomore, for some reason he wasn't given much playing time as the ship was sinking last year, only attempting 8 passes as a true frosh. At running back, there's a mix of good and bad luck, as Curtis Brinkley returns as the starter, but only after leading rusher Delone Carter was lost for the year with a dislocated hip. Things look somewhat better at the other offensive positions. Top two receivers Mike Williams and Rice Moss return, and the #3 WR will be Taj Smith, who led the team in receiving before an injury last year. Also, three of five starters return on the offensive line, and the other two slots will be filled by experienced seniors. The defense was pretty awful last year, giving up more rushing yards than Connecticut, but still letting teams throw all over them as well. Whether or not things will improve is somewhat of a mixed bag. The defensive line returns three of four starters and a bunch of depth, and both safeties return, but otherwise, ehhhh. The secondary may yet be decent, as the CB position has some depth if not experience, and SS/ex-QB Joe Fields has some insight into the mind of an interception-prone quarterback. As for the linebackers, they will surely have some players that will take the field at the lineback position. As for the outlook on the year, Buffalo's probably the only sure win (since without thinking, I seriously checked the schedule looking for Syracuse as the other easy win), and their best chances at home wins will probably come against Washington or even Illinois out of conference. And I suppose they could win at Miami of Ohio. If they had Connecticut at home, I'd give them a chance if the Huskies don't get things together, but getting WVU, Rutgers, USF and Cincinnati at home likely won't result in any wins. On the plus side, maybe this'll lead to getting a better coach. Ohhh, burn.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
THE CONSENSUS:
(Based on averages of the rankings from Athlon, Lindy's, Phil Steele's power poll near the back of his book, and The Sporting News's preview magazines. The "overall" ranking is not that average, but rather the rank of their average versus that of the other 118 I-A schools.
Oh, and the KEY:
AT: Athlon
LN: Lindy's
SN: The Sporting News
SS: Street & Smith's (not included in the average as they only have a top 25, rather than ranking all 119 teams)
ST: Phil Steele's power poll)
1. West Virginia (#3 overall - AT: #5, LN: #4, SN: #4, SS: #2, ST: #5)
2. Louisville (#8 overall - AT #13, LN: #9, SN: #9, SS: #10, ST: #4)
3. Rutgers (#19 overall - AT #10, LN: #16, SN: #19, SS #19, ST: #39)
4. South Florida (#25 overall - AT: #31, LN: #26, SN: #21, SS: --, ST: #30)
5. Pittsburgh (#54 overall - AT: #55, LN: #60, SN: #55, SS: --, ST: #56)
6. Cincinnati (#57 overall - AT: #53, LN: #52, SN: #81, SS: --, ST: #58)
7. Connecticut (#82 overall - AT: #80, LN: #82, SN: #100, SS: --, ST: #71)
8. Syracuse (#101 overall - AT: #99, LN: #89, SN: #105, SS: --, ST: #97)
OVERRATED: Rutgers. Most overrated team in the nation, easy. This was roughly a 7-8 win team last year rather than a national title contender, as Rutgers had a few close wins which could've easily gone the other way. Funnily enough, though, their schedule may be weak enough where they can pull off another 10-win season.
UNDERRATED: Cincinnati. 8-4 season, played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers, all their non-Ohio State losses were fairly close, aaand they probably wound up with a better head coach than they had before. The coaching change is a concern, but still. However, they may be the anti-Rutgers, as they draw all of their Big East peers (USF, Rutgers and Pitt) on the road.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS:
(Done power-poll style. I floated the idea of ranking it based on expected wins, but it's easier this way for when I do my top 25, which again, will be power-poll style.)
1. West Virginia
And barely. Might as well start with the obvious stars of the show, QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton. Exciting, lightning-quick, whatever adjectives you want to use basically boil down to two words: Holy shit! And WR Darius Reynaud gives them a top player at each offensive skill position, even though a #2 needs to emerge. The defense was average last year, but they're helped by a lot of experience returning for 2007. WVU runs a 3-3-5, returns 2/3 of their DL, and while the LB corps loses some starters, they return #4 tackler Reed Williams among other upperclassmen. The secondary was the weakness of the D last year, though, barely making the top 100 nationally in terms of pass yards allowed. However, what was a weakness may become a strength, as WVU returns starters at all 4 of the traditional secondary positions, as well as adding highly touted JuCo CB Ellis Lankster and Michigan transfer/2-year starter Ryan Mundy at safety. There's still some concern for the team as a whole, though -- they replace OL coach Rick Trickett, as well as the star of their O-line, Dan Mozes, and South Florida, Cincinnati, and Rutgers could all be dangerous on the road. Still, the concerns are slightly less worrying than those of Louisville, who, yes, WVU has at home, so the Mountaineers are the slight favorite in the Big East.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
2. Louisville
Gotta start with the Cardinals' Heisman candidate, coulda-been-a-Raider QB Brian Brohm, who even for Colt Brennan fans like myself, is pretty much easily the #1 signal-caller in the country. Despite the occasional injury problem, Brohm has a career 66% completion percentage, and a 41/12 TD/INT ratio. And hey, the rest of the offense is pretty good, too! Brohm has two all-Big East caliber WRs to throw to in Harry Douglas and 6'6" Mario Urrutia, and the running game will likely be led by sophomore Anthony Allen, who had only 406 rushing yards last season, but scored 14 TDs. They do have to replace two starters on the OL, so that may be a concern; however, those positions will likely be filled by seniors, rather than someone thrown to the wolves. So, yeah, Louisville returns almost everyone from the #2 yardage and #3 scoring offense (tied with -- West Virginia!) in the country. The defense may be more of a concern, however. The front seven may not be much of a worry, as despite the losses of DT Amobi Okoye and LB Brandon Johnson, those positions will be filled with upperclassmen or, dare I speculate, extremely talented ex-Miami LB/felon Willie Williams. The weakness of Louisville, instead, looks to be the secondary. Last year's unit can be described as "not especially great", and must replace three starters: CB William Gay and safeties Gavin Smart and Brandon Sharp. All may not be lost, since the secondary gains both Rod Council, a CB with star potential who missed most of '06 due to injury, and highly touted JuCo CB Woodny Turenne. While there is still some experience, this type of turnover on a unit that wasn't that strong to begin with is somewhat of a worry. Then there's the coaching change from Bobby Petrino to Steve Kragthorpe, which actually may be a non-factor for the time being, as Kragthorpe keeps both co-OC Jeff Brohm (Brian's brother) and DC Mike Cassity from Petrino's staff. The case can easily be made for Louisville over West Virginia, but both the coaching change, as minor a hitch as it may be, and the loss of two stars like Okoye and Gay are just enough for me to put Louisville at #2.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
3. South Florida
When Phil Steele said he almost predicted USF to win the Big East, I was like "Phil Steele? More like Phil Crazy." But the more I look at this team, the more I like them, and the more I see that, yes, South Florida in the BCS is a distinct possibility. As per the standard, we'll start with the offense. QB Matt Grothe was a one-man show last year, going from unheralded freshman backup at the start of the year to, in the end, leading the time in yards both through the air and on the ground. And he has help! The hole at RB will hopefully be filled by prep stud Mike Ford (quite possibly the top recruit in USF history), and while the WR corps loses two starters, those holes will be filled by Amarri Jackson (11 starts and probably their star WR in '05) and Taurus Johnson (honorable mention all-Big East despite only 2 starts last year.) Oh, and the entire offense line returns. So, as long as Grothe doesn't suffer some sort of sophomore slump (like that alliteration?), the Bulls offense should be fine. On defense, the situation is similar, as lots of starters return. All four starters return on the defensive line, and the lone hole in the secondary (free safety) will be filled by part-time starting strong safety Danny Verpaele. The only major losses are in the LB corps, last year's most talented part of the defense, but the Bulls return leading tackler Ben Moffitt, and the two open slots will be filled by either promising talent (LeBrandon Glover, Donte Spires) or transfers from other BCS schools (Tyrone McKenzie from Michigan State, Marvin Peoples from Iowa State.) So, yeah, USF has lots of returning talent on both sides of the ball, and just as much potential. The Bulls are probably, in fact, closer to the "Big Two" than to the rest of the Big East pack. While the OOC schedule does include a difficult game at Auburn, USF does host both West Virginia and Louisville; winning 2 out of those 3 games wouldn't surprise me, and yes, this could be a very big year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Rutgers
I had Rutgers at #5 until the last moment, and as overrated as this team is on a national level, this almost seems too low. But I guess that's what happens when you see a team plastered on the cover of Athlon as #10 in the nation. Now, Greg Schiano's done a great job building this program, but national title contender? Really? Any hope whatsoever of Rutgers living up to the hype will have to begin with QB Mike Teel, who threw for 2135 yards with a 12/13 ratio last year. While he was highly touted out of HS, which suggests the talent is there for a breakout year, I'll believe it when I see it. But the star of the show, and the man adorning essentially every preview magazine cover in the Northeast, is RB Ray Rice. And, well, he's very good! Still, I have some trepidation, much like Rutgers as a whole, about Rice's ability to repeat last season, between the loss of Brian Leonard and some losses along the offensive line. OG Cameron Stephenson graduated, but that hole will be filled with either experience or uber-recruit Anthony Davis. However, Rutgers graduated their top two centers, so there'll be a hole in the middle. It could be worse, but I'm still somewhat skeptical of the running game in light of Rice now being the sole back and losing some talent on the OL; then again, I seem to be in the minority in viewing Rice as simply a very talented back than the kind of uber-back who can succeed in any situation at the level of, say, a McFadden or a Slaton. The defense, which was excellent last year, experiences quite a bit of turnover as well. The result is somewhat of a mixed bag -- while the front seven has faced heavy losses (1 DE, 1 DT, 2 LB), the open spots should be in the hands of highly touted talent, such a frosh LB Manny Abreu. In the secondary, which was one of the best in the nation last year, 3 of the 4 starters return; however, the open spot at CB has neither a top recruit or an experienced upperclassman to fill it, unless you count junior Anthony Miller, who has spent the last two years redshirted and suspended. Still, three out of four ain't bad, especially when you had the #7 pass defense in the country. Even if national title aspirations are a bit, well, insane, Rutgers still has the schedule (and, frankly, the defense) to pull off an 11-win season -- they get Louisville on the road, but also easily beatable Syracuse and Connecticut, they get USF and WVU at home, and their OOC schedule is a joke: Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk, and Maryland at home, and then a road game at Army. Seriously now. So, yeah, I fully suspect that most of the year will be spent yelling about how Rutgers really isn't THAT good while they're sitting in the top ten. Fun.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-11 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Cincinnati
Oh, so close, but Rutgers' statistical dominance on defense made me nudge them ahead of the Bearcats. But, yeah, these teams are much closer in talent than their records will probably indicate. Schedule aside, both teams projected at about the same level last year, and the big question here is "Will Cincinnati's experience help them more than the coaching change will hurt them?" And I will say YES!, partially because I love Brian Kelly and think his hire will be more Todd Graham (even if Rice was lucky last year) than Greg Robinson. On offense, the Bearcats return pretty much everyone at the skill positions, losing only TE Brent Celek from the receiving corps. They also have a number of new arrivals; ex-Wake Forest QB Ben Mauk, all-time HS passing leader and subject of the sentence "Ben Mauk getting hurt led to Riley Skinner leading Wake to the ACC title," will battle Dustin Grutza for the starting job, while ex-Michigan RB Mister Simpson will hope to academically qualify and have an awesome name. The O-line loses three starters, but star RG Trevor Canfield returns, and those three spots will be filled from considerable OL depth. On defense, six of the front seven return, and the major losses are CB John Bowie and SS Dominic Ross. While those losses hurt, the Cincinnati pass D should still be decent at the very worst, as the two returning starters, CB Mike Mickens and SS Haruki Nakamura, have all-Big East level talent. Cincinnati has quite a range of possibilities, depending on how the secondary losses and the coaching change affect things. Unfortunately, the schedule isn't very forgiving; while Cincy drops Ohio State and Virginia Tech out of conference, they still play a solid Oregon State team, have only one winnable home conference game in Connecticut, and play teams they're close in talent to (Pitt, USF, Rutgers) all on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
6. Pittsburgh
Hoo boy. There's potential here, as Dave Wannstedt has continually brought in very good recruiting classes, there's just the question if they'll ever fulfill it, partly because they're coached by, well, Dave Wannstedt. On offense, the big concern is replacing three-year starting QB Tyler Palko. The main contenders seem to be junior Bill Stull or top frosh Pat Bostick, but at any rate, whoever wins the starting job will have a lot of help. The Panthers surprisingly had a top-15 scoring offense last year, and return top RB LaRod Stephens-Dowling, FB Conredge Collins, more or less the entire receiving corps short of the tight end, and 4/5 of the offensive line, with the one open slot being filled by a three-year backup. Oh, and they add top-flight frosh RB LeSean McCoy. So, while the offense may take a bit of a step back, the running game should be more than enough to carry the load. Surprisingly, for a team coached by Wannstedt, the defense last year was ehhhhh, especially considering they have to replace NFL draft choices Darrelle Revis, H.B. Blades and Clint Session. The defensive line returns everyone, but past that, it's turnover turnover turnover. CB Kennard Cox and SS Mike Phillips are the only returning defensive starters outside of the DL, and outside of that, it's nothing but shiny talent, mostly of the sophomore and junior variety. Again, there's a lot of potential, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and the conference schedule is somewhat favorable, with UConn, Cincy, Cuse and USF coming to Pitt, and the first three being quite winnable. Out of conference, the Michigan State and Virginia games would be much better served to be at home (obviously), but one out of two isn't out of the question. This looks like a rebuilding year for Pitt, though oddly enough, it may be one in which they get back to a bowl game.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 wins overall, 2-4 conference wins
7. Connecticut
Sigh. Oh Connecticut, you were so promising, what happened? Well, just some bad luck last season, more or less. And ignoring some subpar recruiting, namely the Aaron Hernandez fiasco (QB's brother is the top HS TE and decommits to go to Florida.) UConn had a few games that were winnable, namely Wake, Syracuse, and even Rutgers, that they...well, didn't. So, as a result, UConn's probably closer to the middle of the Big East pack than the dregs (Syracuse.) Still, this doesn't mean the Huskies don't have some glaring problems, namely -- segueway alert -- the quarterback position! Although ex-QB (now WR) DJ Hernandez was electrifying against Pittsburgh last season, the passing game was, well, fucking terrible. Fucking terrible like Chris Berman announcing the home run derby right now. Sorry about that. ANYWAY. The offense was more or less a horrible mess, between the #110 passing game in the country and an often-injured offensive line. The lone bright spot was sophomore RB Donald Brown, who had 896 yards on 5.6 YPC as a frosh, and seems to be the consensus #3 RB in the conference behind Slaton and Rice. But, things may be looking up for the Huskies offense. Brown returns, and all those injuries on the OL last year mean lots of depth this year. And then there's the man who's probably going to make or break Connecticut's season: the top incoming JuCo QB in the country, Tyler Lorenzen. The 2960 yards, 26/3 TD/INT ratio, 836 rushing yards line Lorenzen had last season more or less doubles the output of the QBs last year. Lorenzen will need to come through for the Huskies offense to be any good; even if he doesn't, Brown may be enough to carry it to "respectable" over a full season, and hey, there's always ex-Notre Dame QB Zach Fraser in 2008. The defense, usually a strength, was a mixed bag last season, and may be the same this coming year. The rush defense was horrible last year, giving up 221 rushing yards to Louisville, 275 to West Virginia, and, oh yeah, 504 to Navy. And, to make matters worse, UConn loses both starting DTs, Rhema Fuller and Ray Blagman. Still, the other 6 of the top 8 return along the defensive line, so things may not be completely dire. The linebacker corps should once again be a strength, as two of the three slots will be filled by star seniors Danny Lansanah and Ryan Henegan, and the other by spring game standout Scott Lutrus or Jarrell Miller, likely the top signee in UConn history. And, much like the D-line, the secondary has both good news and bad news. The good news is that the secondary was one of the better ones in the country (though quite possibly since everyone was too busy running the ball), and CB duo Darius Butler and Tyvon Branch are as good as any in the conference. The bad news is that lost both starters at safety. Still, the two open slots should go to experienced senior Donnell Ford and part-time starter Robert Vaughn, so with the strength at CB, the secondary should be a strength on the whole. As for the season outlook, it's pretty much dependent on Tyler Lorenzen and to a lesser extent, the run defense. With Lorenzen doing well, games at Virginia, Cincinnati or hosting Rutgers suddenly become winnable. If the passing game remains in the doldrums, Donald Brown should be enough to beat Temple, Maine, and probably Duke, and if the defense plays pretty well, maybe they can steal a conference game. So, yeah, if the passing game doesn't come through, it'll be last year all over again. And hey, then there'll at least be Zach Fraser in 2008. Though maybe not coach Randy Edsall.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-8 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
8. Syracuse
I could leave it at "They were even worse than that record last year showed, and they have the least returning starters in the conference." But, god help me, I'm gonna go dig into Syracuse in depth. Pardon while I hold my nose. Might as well hold pattern and start with the offense. At QB, Cuse loses longtime starter/bust Perry Patterson, and replace him with highly touted QB of the future Andrew Robinson. While Robinson is a sophomore, for some reason he wasn't given much playing time as the ship was sinking last year, only attempting 8 passes as a true frosh. At running back, there's a mix of good and bad luck, as Curtis Brinkley returns as the starter, but only after leading rusher Delone Carter was lost for the year with a dislocated hip. Things look somewhat better at the other offensive positions. Top two receivers Mike Williams and Rice Moss return, and the #3 WR will be Taj Smith, who led the team in receiving before an injury last year. Also, three of five starters return on the offensive line, and the other two slots will be filled by experienced seniors. The defense was pretty awful last year, giving up more rushing yards than Connecticut, but still letting teams throw all over them as well. Whether or not things will improve is somewhat of a mixed bag. The defensive line returns three of four starters and a bunch of depth, and both safeties return, but otherwise, ehhhh. The secondary may yet be decent, as the CB position has some depth if not experience, and SS/ex-QB Joe Fields has some insight into the mind of an interception-prone quarterback. As for the linebackers, they will surely have some players that will take the field at the lineback position. As for the outlook on the year, Buffalo's probably the only sure win (since without thinking, I seriously checked the schedule looking for Syracuse as the other easy win), and their best chances at home wins will probably come against Washington or even Illinois out of conference. And I suppose they could win at Miami of Ohio. If they had Connecticut at home, I'd give them a chance if the Huskies don't get things together, but getting WVU, Rutgers, USF and Cincinnati at home likely won't result in any wins. On the plus side, maybe this'll lead to getting a better coach. Ohhh, burn.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-5 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Thursday, April 19, 2007
A singular draft comment, for the time being.
In case I wind up posting nothing else. Michael Bush is my #2 running back, and will probably wind up being the steal of the draft. I CALLED IT!
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
I am not dead.
Just very busy during this (my final) semester. Once things clear up, expect all sorts of new delicious content, including something fairly big that I'm hoping to get off the ground. Thanks for bearing with me. And if you're not bearing with me, then hey, thanks for reading this blog anyway.
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