Sorry for the relative lateness, busy week. I also apologize for any non-sequiturs that should show up here, as I seem to have been misusing words when typing without realizing it lately.
12:00 PM
#1 LSU (4-0) @ Tulane (1-2)
Mississippi State beat Tulane pretty good, and after LSU-Mississippi State, the transitive property or whatever means that, and lemme see, if I carry the 3 here...yep, this is gonna be horribly ugly.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence (out of 5): 5
#13 Penn State (3-1) @ Illinois (3-1)
Ooh, this is an interesting one. Anthony Morelli could very well make enough mistakes to hand this one to the Illini, especially with the game in Champaign. Still, I don't think the Illinois passing game will be able to do much; Juice Williams hasn't really taken that next step (yet), and that's a very good Penn State secondary. And while Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall has been very good, even surprisingly great, he's not quite Mike Hart. This could be a hell of a game, but I expect the Nittany Lions to come out of it winners.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
North Carolina (1-3) @ #14 Virginia Tech (3-1)
Well, I've heard weirder things than an upset here, what with Tech's anemic offense, but it looks like UNC is having every bit the rebuilding year predicted. If the Tar Heels offense had looked capable against South Florida I might've given them a chance here, but twas not to be.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Duke (1-3) @ #19 Miami (3-1)
It was close last year and all, but if Miami's offensive output was a one-time thing, the defense should be stout enough where Duke isn't going to be able to do much to compete, much less win. Duke can be a competitive team, just not here.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
Notre Dame (0-4) @ #25 Purdue (4-0)
I guess Notre Dame could finally get a win here on turnovers and luck and such, but Purdue's offense alone should put this away easy. Notre Dame could continue to show improvement (although, admittedly, from absolutely horrible lows), or at least be about as good as they were against Michigan State, but really, that probably won't mean much.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Akron (2-2) @ Connecticut (4-0)
Akron's gotten its act together after a performance so bad against Ohio State that I died a little inside, and UConn, despite their 3 inexplicable AP votes, are pretty much a paper tiger. If Connecticut had smashed both Duke and Temple, I'd be much more optimistic for the Huskies, since the Zips are about that level of team, but since Temple should've won that game, my confidence is a bit more wobbly. I'll give the Huskies the nod since they're at home and they frankly have the talent edge, but I'll keep the confidence low since, well, I don't really have much in this team, and really...5-0?
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Temple (0-4) @ Army (1-3)
Temple's had the weaker schedule, but has looked more impressive, being competitive in all their games except, oddly, against Buffalo. Army's been smoked by two ACC teams, and was competitive in a loss to Akron, but needed OT to beat I-AA Rhode Island. Temple put up 35 points against a MACtastic Bowling Green defense, and Army's shouldn't be much better; I expect the Owls to put up enough points to put this out of reach, even the gap between the teams isn't all that large.
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 2
Buffalo (1-3) @ Ball State (2-2)
Buffalo's actually getting their act together, but Ball State's clearly the superior team here, especially coming off their near-upset at Nebraska. It's a lot like the Temple-Army game, but more of a sure thing, since Ball State's offense was projected to do well before the season; the gap between the teams isn't TOO great, but BSU's likely to put up more than enough points to put this out of reach. The MAC parity alert applies as it almost always does, though.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-3) @ Central Michigan (1-3)
Yech. Two teams that were expected to be MAC contenders but have thus far looked awful, both losing to I-AA teams. CMU has the best win (Toledo) but also the worst loss, as they got blown out last week by North Dakota State. NIU has more momentum due to...beating Idaho, I guess, so I'll give them the edge in what amounts to a crapshoot of disappointment.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
Michigan (2-2) @ Northwestern (2-2)
Northwestern runs a spread offense. Mike Hart should theoretically do enough to give the Wolverines the win, but read that first sentence again. I won't pull the trigger, but I'm very wary.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
12:05 PM
Indiana (3-1) @ Iowa (2-2)
Iowa's win over NIU looks a lot less impressive now, and as a result, so does Iowa's resume as a whole. Even coming off a loss, this game almost feels like Indiana should win it, since Iowa seems somewhat in the doldrums, and Indiana has looked very good thus far, led by QB Kellen Lewis. Still, Iowa needs the win themselves, has more talent, and the homefield advantage. A Hoosier win this time around would be much less surprising than last, but I'll still give Iowa the narrowest of edges.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (3-1) @ #11 South Carolina (3-1)
Well, MSU being 3-1 just kind of happened. Auburn's the obvious big win here, and with how the Tigers have played so far, that's not saying much. While it may not be a MSU-LSU style beating, South Carolina's much better than both Auburn and Mississippi State, and I expect this to be a game that, while it may be competitive, SC should win handily.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Baylor (3-1) @ #24 Texas A&M (3-1)
Baylor, much like Mississippi State, is a surprising 3-1, and has also been fairly untested. A&M, as I've said in other posts, is a much more one-dimensional team this season than they were last, as QB Stephen McGee has been more a runner than a passer. Unlike Miami, however, this should be a team that the Aggies can run on. Really, it's the same story as SC-MSU above; this may be more competitive than expected, but in the end, the favorite home team should win easily.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Mississippi (1-3) @ #9 Georgia (3-1)
Ole Miss's near upset of Florida means I officially have no idea what the hell to make of the Rebels, but Georgia should be able to stop that offense enough where they can win. Probably.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Massachusetts @ #23 Boston College (4-0)
Yawwwwn.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Air Force (3-1) @ Navy (2-2)
Navy's regressed quite a bit from previous year, almost losing to Duke, losing to Ball State, and generally allowing as many points as they're able to run for. Air Force has been a formidable opponent this year, as the 3-1 record and win over TCU shows, and they really should have no problem beating the Midshipmen.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (3-1) @ Kentucky (4-0)
Kentucky will score a lot of points, give up a lot of points, and god only knows, probably somehow make the top ten or something. At the very least, it'll make the eventual destruction at the hands of LSU pretty funny.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
1:30 PM
#2 Oklahoma (4-0) @ Colorado (2-2)
CU's making strides, but OU is looking pretty unstoppable against this level of competition, so they should step on the Buffaloes' throats and then move on.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
2:05 PM
Iowa State (1-3) @ Nebraska (3-1)
Nebraska has quite an all-offense, no-defense thing going on; I was originally going to include a snarky comment about how that should beat ISU's no-offense, no-defense gameplan, but the Cyclones have improved their play against Iowa and Toledo. Still, they're not that good, and Nebraska should beat them easy.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Kent State (2-2) @ Ohio (2-2)
The MAC is once again just a tangled mess of confusion. Ohio's done about what was expected, beating Gardner-Webb and LA-Lafayette, losing big to Virginia Tech and close to Wyoming. Kent State, however, is much more confusing, as they beat Iowa State and Delaware State, were not bad in a loss to Kentucky, but promptly lost to Akron last week. Ohio's probably the more consistent bet, but I'll give KSU the benefit of the doubt for the time being, especially since they sizeable outgained the Zips. Honestly, who the hell knows, though.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Syracuse (1-3) @ Miami of Ohio (1-3)
Miami of Ohio was looking like a decent, competitive team until the bottom fell out against Cincinnati and Colorado. Though really, the key to the game is if Syracuse's offensive improvement were legitimate or just a mirage allowed by that pathetic Louisville D. Having the seen the game, I'll give Cuse the benefit of the doubt, at least for the time being.
My Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 1
Utah State (0-4) @ Utah (1-3)
Utah has pretty much swung between "competitive" and "bad". Utah State, however, has alternated between "bad" and "bad".
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
Kansas State (2-1) @ #6 Texas (4-0)
KSU's somewhat of an unknown quantity, as they had a ten-point loss to Auburn in their opener before beating up on inferior competition. Texas is vulnerable, especially in the secondary, and KSU QB Josh Freeman is good enough to exploit that, so this could very well be an upset in the making. I'm not confident enough in the Wildcats to pull the trigger, though.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 1
#20 California (4-0) @ #8 Oregon (4-0)
Oregon's defense has shown some regression in recent games, but that Cal secondary remains absolutely horrible and ready to be exploited. While I think Oregon's the better team, and more well-rounded for whatever that's worth, this should be a fun shootout that can go either way. It's almost like the Cal-Tennessee matchup, where both teams have suspect secondaries, with Cal's being worse, but Cal's receiving talent is able to exploit the opposing D just as well, if not better, than the other team. I'm still picking Oregon, though.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (4-0) @ #10 Wisconsin (4-0)
Michigan State's probably good, but not that great. But, wait a second, Wisconsin's probably good, but not that great! What a quandary. Wisconsin has the better defense, though. And the better quarterback. And the better running back, though that one's a closer race. Really, Wisconsin's the better team easily, just not to the extent where an upset is out of the question.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
#17 Clemson (4-0) @ Georgia Tech (2-2)
GT's been pretty exposed in their last two games, going from a top-25 team to someone decent on both sides of the ball but really nothing special. Clemson's still shaky - they looked very good except against Wofford of all teams, but there's still that feeling things could fall apart. However, if UVA's Cedric Peerman could run on the GT D, James Davis and CJ Spiller should have a field day for Clemson. And really, if this is Clemson's inexplicable loss of the year, this ain't all that inexplicable.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
Maryland (2-2) @ #22 Rutgers (3-0)
Maryland's a decent team, thus making them the hardest challenge BY FAR for an unproven Rutgers team ranked in the top ten. And really, Rutgers is still mostly a wild-card; that defense should be good, as should Ray Rice, but past that, who really knows. Still, the RU secondary should be able to make Maryland's offense one-dimensional, and while that dimension is fine, it shouldn't good enough to beat what is probably a very good (but not top-ten good) Rutgers team.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
Louisville (2-2) @ NC State (1-3)
Alright, Louisville's GOTTA win this one, right? Lost in the Cardinals' implosion is that Brian Brohm remains really really good, and that should be enough to win here. Then again, while the NC State offense shouldn't be good enough to match Louisville's, Syracuse's was that much worse...
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
UC Davis @ San Jose State (1-3)
SJSU's not THAT bad. Right?
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
UNLV (2-2) @ Nevada (1-2)
Hard one to call, as both teams are pretty much wild cards. Nevada looked good against Nicholls State, but not against BCS competition, while UNLV beat Utah State and smashed the puzzling Utah Utes, but lost to top 25 teams. The Rebels have been more competitive, with the Wisconsin game being the main example, so I'll give them the edge.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UTEP (2-2) @ SMU (1-3)
Yawn. Neither team seems to be any great shakes, but...at least UTEP beat New Mexico? Really, SMU's been very disappointing thus far, especially in their loss to Arkansas State, while UTEP's been mediocre. This could easily go either way, but I'll give the edge to the team that's been playing slightly better.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
#12 Alabama (3-1) @ Florida State (2-1)
FSU looks disappointing again. It's possibly the bye week could've helped and they'll be re-energized or meshing better or something, but based on the season so far, Alabama should beat the Noles and could smoke them.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
#21 Hawaii (4-0) @ Idaho (1-3)
Colt Brennan's back for this one, so Idaho's chances go from slim to none. Well, I shouldn't say that, Louisiana Tech played Hawaii close, but still.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
6:00 PM
Western Kentucky @ Bowling Green (2-1)
BGSU looks like one of the top teams in the MAC, for whatever that's worth. Well, it's worth them being the favorite in games like this.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 3
Louisiana-Lafayette (0-4) @ Central Florida (2-1)
UCF's looking like one of the top mid-majors out there. ULL's looking like...Rice. There can be weird results in games like this, but I ain't pickin' em.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
UCLA (3-1) @ Oregon State (2-2)
UCLA QB Ben Olson is starting again, as he returns from injury just as backup Patrick Cowan goes down with an injury himself. So...huh. How about that. Olson's been disappointing, but it'll probably be a wash in this game, since while the Beavers have gone with one QB, Sean Canfield, he's been quite mediocre himself. It's really a very even matchup, since both teams have great running backs (Chris Markey and Yvenson Bernard, respectively) and as for defenses...HAHAHAHAHA, this is a Pac 10 game. UCLA's offense has been more explosive, as the Bruins ran over Washington and dominated Stanford, so I'll give them the edge, because hey, why not. Taste the parity.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
North Texas (0-3) @ Arkansas (1-2)
NT may have a better day than expected with their wacky passtastic offense, but Darren McFadden may outgain the Mean Green all by his lonesome. Yep.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 4
Colorado State (0-3) @ TCU (2-2)
This'll be a fun one, as CSU's probably the best winless team out there. TCU will be without star DE Tommy Blake, but the defense is still the Horned Frogs' strength, and will be matching up with the Rams' excellent duo of QB Caleb Hanie and RB Kyle Bell. This is really one that could go either way - TCU's offense vs. CSU's defense is somewhat of a crapshoot, since who knows how the former will do. I'll give TCU the edge due to homefield, so...there.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
East Carolina (1-3) @ Houston (2-1)
The bloom seems to be off the rose for ECU, as they haven't really impressed since their close loss to Virginia Tech. Houston's offense isn't as excellent as it was with Kevin Kolb, but it's still very good, and that'll do here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Eastern Michigan (2-2) @ Vanderbilt (2-1)
EMU's a competitive MAC team, but, well, no. Not here. Vandy's good, people.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-4) @ Middle Tennessee State (0-4)
Well, MTSU's showing against Louisville now looks that less impressive. Which is...still more than FIU's showed this year, and against a weaker schedule. Ew.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Monroe (0-3) @ Troy (2-2)
Don't let that 0-3 fool you, as ULM is one of the Sun Belt contenders along with FAU and Troy. The ULM offense is good enough to win here, but then again, so was OK State's, and Troy took them down. Really, if Troy was an all-defense team, I'd be able to pick ULM, but Troy is a team that's very good on defense that also happens to score a lot of points. An upset is possible, especially in the wacky Sun Belt, but Troy has a large edge on defense, and ULM's edge on offense is slight, if they even have one.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Virginia (3-1)
UVA seems to have their act together, so they should beat a sliding Pitt team easy. Pitt has a chance, since if they have one thing, it's a running game, and frosh QB Pat Bostick looks like a good one, but if the Cavs can put away Georgia Tech, this should be no problem.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 2
Northwestern State @ Texas Tech (3-1)
I wonder.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5
Western Michigan (1-3) @ Toledo (1-3)
Two disappointments, mostly due to units that are actually squaring off; Toledo's passing game has been disappointing, and WMU's veteran secondary hasn't been anywhere near as good as expected. Both teams are actually coming off of momentum-gaining wins, so it's pretty much a crapshoot. Toledo's actually beat a I-A team and have the homefield, but I thought WMU was the best team in the MAC before the season began, so I'll hold out hope for the Broncos.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
UAB (1-2) @ Tulsa (2-1)
UAB's not any good. Tulsa is! NEXT
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
7:05 PM
Sam Houston State @ Oklahoma State (2-2)
One can only imagine the meltdown if the Cowboys lost here. Oh hey, this is the team Rhett Bomar's on. So, wow, there's actually an outside chance, probably. Neat.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#4 USC (3-0) @ Washington (2-2)
Washington keeps looking more and more like they're a year away, so while an upset is possible, it's probably not happening. The UW offense may put up some points, meaning like 17 or so, but USC's firepower should take over one way or another.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
#5 Ohio State (4-0) @ Minnesota (1-3)
If OSU did THAT to Northwestern, you might want to put the children to bed here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Auburn (2-2) @ #7 Florida (4-0)
It could happen - for all their flaws, Auburn's probably better than Ole Miss, who gave the Gators a scare. Brandon Cox, for all his flaws, could manage to do well here, as the Florida secondary remains pretty suspect. Still, Tebow should continue to be a dual threat that brings absolute pain to Florida's opponents and then heals them with his stunning good looks.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ New Mexico State (2-2)
UAPB has a team? NMSU scheduled two I-AAs?
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
8:30 PM
Brigham Young (2-2) @ New Mexico (3-1)
New Mexico could win this, but it's hard to say much about the Lobos - they're pretty good but not great at everything, and relatively unexciting. BYU's offense should carry the Cougs here, though; it's pretty good, they're pretty good, yep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
#18 Arizona State (4-0) @ Stanford (1-2)
Uh oh, an Arizona State ROAD GAME!!!! Stanford's competitive, so this could be closer than expected, or dare I say, even an upset, but ASU's a good enough team where either QB Rudy Carpenter or RB Ryan Torain'll put this one out of reach. Scientific.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
Washington State (2-2) @ Arizona (1-3)
Jeez, I don't know. Arizona's still very much a work in progress, while Wazzou's just kind of...there. Arizona still hasn't shown much, so I'll give WSU the benefit of the doubt, even if this is essentially a crapshoot.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
Cincinnati (4-0) @ San Diego State (1-2)
Cincinnati's overrated, and SDSU doesn't seem quite as bad as expected, so there's a very slight upset chance. Cincy should win on talent alone, but also seems like one of those teams destined to get wins they shouldn't due to luck and turnovers, so this should be all Bearcats all the time.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 4
Louisiana Tech (1-2) @ Fresno State (1-2)
Fresno's not all the way back to their top-tier-of-the-WAC ways, but they're much improved from last year's disappointing season. Louisiana Tech isn't.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Week 5 Preview: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
Memphis (1-2) @ Arkansas State (1-2)
This really could go either way, mostly since Memphis is the wild card of the two. The Tigers beat I-AA Jacksonville State as they should, but outplayed Ole Miss in a loss, and got smashed by UCF, which says more about the latter's dominance than anything about Memphis. Arkansas State handily beat a disappointing SMU team, but played well in losses to Texas and Tennessee. In the preseason, I would've given this to Memphis easy, so the Tigers have a shot, but ASU's two-pronged attack (QB Corey Leonard, RB Reggie Arnold) has played much too well this season not to pick them at home.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence (out of 5): 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (2-1) @ Boise State (2-1)
Two teams with very similar resumes: an easy win over a I-AA (Tennessee-Martin, Weber State), a definite loss to a BCS team (Tennessee, Washington), and a solid but unspectacular win over a team a notch below them (ECU, Wyoming). Boise seems like an easy favorite - I can't speak for the I-AAs, but Boise pretty much faced the better team in each of those comparisons. USM just hasn't really come off as a dominant C-USA team thus far (although, admittedly, this is mostly based off the ECU game), and that smurf turf is a hell of a homefield advantage for the Broncos.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
#3 West Virginia (4-0) @ #16 South Florida (3-0)
I've mostly been of the mind that pretty much nobody can run with WVU over four quarters, but this maaaay be an exception, as USF has the stoutest run defense in the Big East. Granted, that's against Elon, Auburn, and UNC, but still, this is also probably the best defense the WVU rushing attack has faced yet. Though, honestly, the big question is on the other side of the ball; WVU will likely manage to score, and while they may not reach their 47-point average for the year, will USF's offense be able to do enough if their defense stops the Mountaineers? The Bulls offense so far can be classified as "solid", and they probably need more than that. While, don't get me wrong, the Bulls have a definite chance of pulling off the upset, they still are relatively unproven what with Auburn being so bad, and I can't pick them with WVU's offense being seemingly such a sure thing.
My Pick: West Virginia
COnfidence: 1
7:00 PM
Memphis (1-2) @ Arkansas State (1-2)
This really could go either way, mostly since Memphis is the wild card of the two. The Tigers beat I-AA Jacksonville State as they should, but outplayed Ole Miss in a loss, and got smashed by UCF, which says more about the latter's dominance than anything about Memphis. Arkansas State handily beat a disappointing SMU team, but played well in losses to Texas and Tennessee. In the preseason, I would've given this to Memphis easy, so the Tigers have a shot, but ASU's two-pronged attack (QB Corey Leonard, RB Reggie Arnold) has played much too well this season not to pick them at home.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence (out of 5): 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (2-1) @ Boise State (2-1)
Two teams with very similar resumes: an easy win over a I-AA (Tennessee-Martin, Weber State), a definite loss to a BCS team (Tennessee, Washington), and a solid but unspectacular win over a team a notch below them (ECU, Wyoming). Boise seems like an easy favorite - I can't speak for the I-AAs, but Boise pretty much faced the better team in each of those comparisons. USM just hasn't really come off as a dominant C-USA team thus far (although, admittedly, this is mostly based off the ECU game), and that smurf turf is a hell of a homefield advantage for the Broncos.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
#3 West Virginia (4-0) @ #16 South Florida (3-0)
I've mostly been of the mind that pretty much nobody can run with WVU over four quarters, but this maaaay be an exception, as USF has the stoutest run defense in the Big East. Granted, that's against Elon, Auburn, and UNC, but still, this is also probably the best defense the WVU rushing attack has faced yet. Though, honestly, the big question is on the other side of the ball; WVU will likely manage to score, and while they may not reach their 47-point average for the year, will USF's offense be able to do enough if their defense stops the Mountaineers? The Bulls offense so far can be classified as "solid", and they probably need more than that. While, don't get me wrong, the Bulls have a definite chance of pulling off the upset, they still are relatively unproven what with Auburn being so bad, and I can't pick them with WVU's offense being seemingly such a sure thing.
My Pick: West Virginia
COnfidence: 1
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 4
#1 LSU (4-0, #1)
#2 Oklahoma (4-0, #2)
#3 West Virginia (4-0, #3)
#4 USC (3-0, #4)
#5 Ohio State (4-0, #6)
#6 Texas (4-0, #8)
#7 Florida (4-0, #9)
#8 Oregon (4-0, #12)
#9 Georgia (3-1, #15)
#10 Wisconsin (4-0, #11)
#11 South Carolina (3-1, #7)
#12 Alabama (3-1, #10)
#13 Penn State (3-1, #5)
#14 Virginia Tech (3-1, #16)
#15 Missouri (4-0, #17)
#16 South Florida (3-0, #19)
#17 Clemson (4-0, #20)
#18 Arizona State (4-0, #18)
#19 Miami (3-1, --)
#20 California (4-0, #23)
#21 Hawaii (4-0, #21)
#22 Rutgers (4-0, #22)
#23 Boston College (4-0, #24)
#24 Texas A&M (3-1, #13)
#25 Purdue (4-0, --)
NOTES!
It's the top 5 and everyone else; Texas and Florida pretty much move up by default, they're not really deserving of the top 10, but they are merely the least undeserving teams.
Pretty hard to drop Alabama further than #12 because they're the same team coming into it as they were out. I might've put them under Penn State, but my opinion actually changed toward the Nittany Lions with Morelli being so bad.
Mizzou and USF seem a bit high, but it's mostly the same thing as above with Texas and Florida.
Still somewhat wary of Miami staying consistent, though them being at #19 is pretty much with consistency in mind.
I haven't mentioned Purdue much, but they've been torching defenses at a pretty good clip. It could be a Georgia Tech situation where a weak schedule is overrating them, but they've easily taken care of their MAC opponents, which is more than I can say for Nebraska, my last team out.
#2 Oklahoma (4-0, #2)
#3 West Virginia (4-0, #3)
#4 USC (3-0, #4)
#5 Ohio State (4-0, #6)
#6 Texas (4-0, #8)
#7 Florida (4-0, #9)
#8 Oregon (4-0, #12)
#9 Georgia (3-1, #15)
#10 Wisconsin (4-0, #11)
#11 South Carolina (3-1, #7)
#12 Alabama (3-1, #10)
#13 Penn State (3-1, #5)
#14 Virginia Tech (3-1, #16)
#15 Missouri (4-0, #17)
#16 South Florida (3-0, #19)
#17 Clemson (4-0, #20)
#18 Arizona State (4-0, #18)
#19 Miami (3-1, --)
#20 California (4-0, #23)
#21 Hawaii (4-0, #21)
#22 Rutgers (4-0, #22)
#23 Boston College (4-0, #24)
#24 Texas A&M (3-1, #13)
#25 Purdue (4-0, --)
NOTES!
It's the top 5 and everyone else; Texas and Florida pretty much move up by default, they're not really deserving of the top 10, but they are merely the least undeserving teams.
Pretty hard to drop Alabama further than #12 because they're the same team coming into it as they were out. I might've put them under Penn State, but my opinion actually changed toward the Nittany Lions with Morelli being so bad.
Mizzou and USF seem a bit high, but it's mostly the same thing as above with Texas and Florida.
Still somewhat wary of Miami staying consistent, though them being at #19 is pretty much with consistency in mind.
I haven't mentioned Purdue much, but they've been torching defenses at a pretty good clip. It could be a Georgia Tech situation where a weak schedule is overrating them, but they've easily taken care of their MAC opponents, which is more than I can say for Nebraska, my last team out.
Week 4 Recap
#1 LSU 28, #7 South Carolina 16
It was 28-7 after three quarters, so it's not like this was a dogfight where LSU pulled away late. And really, while this wasn't a flat-out destruction of an offense like the Tigers had against Virginia Tech, the LSU defense was once again a dominant unit. The SC QBs were able to put up some not-horrible counting stats, putting up 244 yards and a bad-not-horrible 1/2 ratio, but neither Chris Smelley or Blake Mitchell completed half their passes. And meanwhile, LSU absolutely shut down the running game, holding the Gamecocks to only 17 yards. My instinct was to say that this shows LSU is beatable if their offense is having a bad day, but, well, this WAS their offense having a bad day. The running back committee was quite productive, but QB Matt Flynn had more or less the same line as an SC QB, completing only 42% of his passes for a 1/1 ratio. LSU remains a dominant team, and as for South Carolina, it's hard to fault them for running into such a brick wall.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#2 Oklahoma 62, Tulsa 21
Dang. OU didn't stop Tulsa from racking up 398 yards, but they did keep the Golden Hurricane from being overly productive, and sacked Tulsa QBs 6 times. They also exhibited a LSU-esque run defense, holding Tulsa to only 44 yards on the ground. But the real impressive thing is the OU offense, which was once again a well-oiled machine. QB Sam Bradford completed 73% of his 22 passes for 244 and a 3/1 ratio, and Allen Patrick was this week's leading RB, going for 145 and 2 TD on 19 carries, though redshirt frosh sensation DeMarco Murray also had 46 and 2 scores on 8 touches. Tulsa isn't Virginia Tech or Miami or anything, but this was another impressive, dominating performance.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulsa: STOCK NEUTRAL
#3 West Virginia 48, East Carolina 7
Utter domination, as the WVU defense came through with flying colors, holding the Pirates to only 160 yards. Pat White had an excellent day passing, going for 18/20 for 181 and 2 TD, and added 42 and 2 more scores on the ground. He's probably my Heisman leader at the moment. Slaton also had his usual good day, going for 110 and a score of his own. Nice to see a good game from the WVU defense, and this probably remains the best, or at least the "least stoppable," offense in the country.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
East Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#4 USC 47, Washington State 14
Pretty much the same story as the Nebraska game, as USC neutralized the opposing offense and was able to exploit a suspect defense, although this time QB John David Booty was more productive, going 28/35 for 279 and a 4/1 TD. Same old, same old, USC's still one of the few elite teams, but I still have them as fourth-best, especially with WVU dominating so much this week. And sadly, with USC's next three games against Stanford, Arizona, and Notre Dame, it may be awhile before they have something to gain.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Michigan 14, #5 Penn State 9
Well, Anthony Morelli hasn't improved. He didn't have any picks, but then again, he had no touchdowns and only completed 48.4% of his passes, so he's more, say, Brandon Cox than Carson Palmer as far as "finally getting in during a senior season" goes. The Michigan defense looked good, only holding PSU to 270 yards, and Wolverines QB Ryan Mallett was decent enough (16/29, 170, INT) was good enough to let Mike Hart win it on 153 yards and a touchdown. I said I'd believe it when I see it regarding Michigan, and things are looking better; they're like, all cleaned up and back on the wagon, and they're showing up wearing a suit and looking good and everything, but you still have that feeling things could implode and wind up where they started at any moment. So, yeah, any faith in Morelli was proven unjustified, and while Michigan's stock is taking a step up, they're not back to being Michigan just yet.
Michigan: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN
#6 Ohio State 58, Northwestern 7
OSU "only" had 396 yards, but as the score shows, that offense was an efficient wrecking ball. QB Todd Boeckman was Sam Bradford-esque, going 11/14 for 179 and a 4/1 ratio, and Chris Wells, funnily enough, did a DeMarco Murray impression, going for 100 and a TD. And the defense was dominant as usual, holding Northwestern to 120 yards, all passing. Northwestern looks to be sliding quickly after a great start, and with this, OSU definitively becomes the fifth elite team in the nation.
Ohio State: STOCK UP
Northwestern: STOCK DOWN
#8 Texas 58, Rice 14
Rice's 7 wins last year means nothing; this was essentially Texas beating up on a I-AA team, and thus there's very little to be taken from it, even if holding a team to negative 11 rushing yards is pretty neat.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Rice: STOCK NEUTRAL
#9 Florida 30, Mississippi 24
Tim Tebow was his usual dreamy self, in fact earning the coveted KINSMON LANCASTER AWARD for outgaining the entire opposition by his lonesome, passing for 261 and rushing for 166, making for a total of 427 yards versus Ole Miss's 390. Really, with UF shutting down the run just fine, the only point of concern is that secondary, as unheralded Rebels QB Seth Adams completed 58% of his passes for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. Ole Miss has been more competitive that I've expected, so I'll bump them up, but Florida remains where I had them -- a very good team, but questions with that young defense keep me from bumping them into the elite.
Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi: STOCK UP
#15 Georgia 26, #10 Alabama 23 (OT)
Pretty much insanely even, as everything was close in every aspect. I picked Georgia to win on the rationale that Stafford had been slightly more consistent than Wilson, and the only tangible difference in the game was Stafford (54%, 224, 2/2) being slightly more productive than Wilson (49%, 185, 0/0). I deserve full credit for this. But, really, it was a neat game, not much to really take out of it - they're essentially the same, very good team.
Georgia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Alabama: STOCK NEUTRAL
#11 Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13
A somewhat unimpressive win for the Badgers. QB Tyler Donovan was decent, but not spectacular - he at least completed over 50% of his passes (52%), but only had 138 yards and a 1/1 ratio. Running back PJ Hill had good counting stats, with 113 and a TD, but only had 3.9 yards per carry. I'll nudge Wisconsin down, even if the ranking doesn't won't necessarily show it too much - there really is a lack of top quality teams so far this year. Oh, and as for Iowa...bleh. I nudged them down after the ISU loss, and that's about where they deserve to be.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Iowa: STOCK NEUTRAL
#12 Oregon 55, Stanford 31
Stanford was actually up 31-24 before Oregon decided they had enough and just went crazy. Ducks QB Dennis Dixon had his usual great game, going for 367 and 4 TD on 75% passing, and RB Jonathan Stewart was a juggernaut as well, with 160 and a TD on over 8 yards per carry. The bigger story is Stanford being competitive though, with QB T.C. Ostrander being decent (57%, 268, 2/1) and RB Anthony Kimble having a very good game, going for 119 and 2 scores. Oregon, as expected for a Pac 10 team, has some questions on defense, and as I've said before, Stanford looks like a team that Jim Harbaugh is going to coach up to an upset or two. Yep.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL
Miami 34, #13 Texas A&M 17
Texas A&M's lack of balance finally caught up with them, since as I said, if Miami can do one thing, it's stop the run. They held the Aggies to just 98 yards on the ground, and it turns out they could actually do more than one thing, with QB Kyle Wright completing 81! percent of his passes for 275 and 2 TD, and leading rusher Graig Cooper having only 50 yards and a TD, but gashing the Aggies D for 7.1 yards a carry. I'll knock the Aggies down a notch, since again, their lack of balance caught up with them, but they should still be in my top 25; and since Miami actually showed an offense, I'll bump them back up.
Miami: STOCK UP
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN
Syracuse 38, #14 Louisville 35
???!?!?!? I watched this game, and this happened, but, um, what? Louisville's offense was actually still pretty great, particularly QB Brian Brohm, who had 555 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 69% passing. But Louisville's defense allowed the Syracuse offense to have a Madden-tastic day; there were many moments when it looked like Louisville had switched to the wrong defender, allowing Syracuse to break one for a bunch of yards after catch. Cuse QB Andrew Robinson fumbled two snaps, including one on what would've been the game-sealing drive late, but he acquitted himself with a pretty insane day passing, going 17/26 for 423 yards and 4 TD. Louisville obviously gets knocked down because oh my god, that defense is "Notre Dame offense" bad, while I'll give Syracuse a slight nudge up; they ARE playing this defense and all, but either way the offense is showing signs of life, which as a Connecticut fan, slightly worries me.
Syracuse: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
#16 Virginia Tech 44, William & Mary 3
VT had 3 field goals, a defensive TD, and a return TD, so the yardage was actually fairly even, but, yeah, Hokies should've won this one and they did.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
#17 Missouri 38, Illinois State 17
Much more statistically impressive than the VT game, but still, nothing to see here.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
#18 Arizona State 44, Oregon State 32
A mixed bag with the Sun Devils here, as OSU actually had the yardage edge. The Beavers actually stuck with one QB too, and while Sean Canfield had 58% passing and 324 yards, he only had 2 TD versus 5 interceptions. RB Yvenson Bernard had a better day, though, running for 128 and a score. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter was the star of their offense, going 25/36 for 361 and a 4/1 ratio. The Sun Devils are the best of the glut near the middle of the Pac 10, rather than up there with USC and Oregon, and I'll keep them steady; I'll also nudge Oregon State up for actually sticking with one QB - they should be better down the stretch than they've been so far.
Arizona State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oregon State: STOCK UP
#19 South Florida 37, North Carolina 10
USF just absolutely shut down UNC here. Matt Grothe had the only impressive individual line for the Bulls, completing 57% for 230 and a score, which sure as hell beats things on the UNC side. Heels QB TJ Yates looked better against UVA, but that was completely undone here, as he only completed 41% for 85 yards and an 0/4 TD/INT ratio. Ew. I'll pump USF up a notch as they come off more like a deserving top 25 team than one there by attrition now, and UNC is still a year or two away.
South Florida: STOCK UP
North Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#20 Clemson 42, NC State 20
Outstandingly one-sided. Clemson's running back duo came back with a vengeance, as James Davis had 166 yards and a TD while C.J. Spiller added 114 yards and a score of his own. QB Cullen Harper also did quite well, completing 64% for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. As for things on the NCSU side, there isn't much to say as the Wolfpack barely cracked 200 yards. QB Harrison Beck was knocked out early, and last year's starter, Daniel Evans, was fairly decent, going 16/25 for 123 and a 1/1 ratio. So that's something. I'll keep both teams steady for the time being.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL
NC State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#21 Hawaii 66, Charleston Southern 10
Colt Brennan missed the game, but it didn't matter, outside of probably hurting his Heisman chances. Backup Tyler Graunke had some INTs that Brennan probably wouldn't have, but other than that, business as usual.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
#23 California 45, Arizona 27
Well, that wasn't an upset, even if Arizona was the latest team to exploit the Cal secondary, with Willie Tuitama throwing for 309 yards on 69% passing, even if he only had a 1/2 ratio. Cal QB Nate Longshore was slightly less impressive, completing only 53% for 235 and a 1/1 ratio. Still, he had something helping him out that Tuitama didn't: a running game, as Cal's Justin Forsett ran for 117 and 2 scores. Arizona is still going through growing pains and an outside shot to make .500, while I'll harp on the same thing with Cal that I always do: that secondary is going to get torched and lead them to a loss.
California: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK NEUTRAL
#24 Boston College 37, Army 17
Yawn. BC just smacked the crap out of Army like they should've. QB Matt Ryan had excellent peripherals, but someone of his hype shouldn't have thrown 2 picks here. The Eagles remain a very good, very overrated team.
Boston College: STOCK NEUTRAL
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL
#25 Nebraska 41, Ball State 40
BSU actually outgained the Huskers 610-552; I figured they'd be able to exploit the Nebraska D, but not to that extent. BSU's Nate Davis and Nebraska's Sam Keller had about even counting stats, with equal 3/1 ratios and 422 and 438 yards, respectively, but Keller had a 78% completion percentage to Davis's 61. Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis was the revelation here, going for 122 and a TD on 19 carries. Nebraska's defense is worse than I thought, so they get a nudge down. Ball State gets a move up, since they now seem to be in the upper tier of the MAC; still, with the MAC being so even, who knows both what that's worth and how long that'll last.
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
Ball State: STOCK UP
Brigham Young 31, Air Force 6
Pretty much a bitchslapping, as while Air Force's pass/run ratio was fairly even, that's because neither was that productive. Oddly, my opinion of either team doesn't really change - AFA is Navy-esque dangerous-if-not-overly-talented, and BYU is one of those teams that can win a shootout with anyone.
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL
Air Force: STOCK NEUTRAL
Kentucky 42, Arkansas 29
This hurts Arkansas more than serves as any sort of vindication for UK, at least in my eyes. Andre' Woodson is in fact a good QB (even if he'll be taken much too high in the NFL draft), even if he surprisingly only completed 54% en route to 265 yards and 2 TD. And Arkansas's offense also had something unsurprising, in that the Razorback running backs had a field day, with McFadden going for 173 yards and a TD, and Felix Jones adding 133 yards on an obscene 11.1 yards per carry. But the big thing here is, holy crap, just how awful Arkansas QB Casey Dick is. He had 157 yards, but couldn't complete half his passes, and had an 0/2 TD/INT ratio. Against KENTUCKY. KENTUCKY! Just pathetic. Arkansas no longer seems like a team that McFadden and Jones can carry to victory, but one that will attempt to lose in spite of them. Bah.
Kentucky: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Tennessee 48, Arkansas State 27
ASU QB Corey Leonard was unable to exploit this secondary, throwing for only 199 and a 1/2 ratio. Still, RB Reggie Arnold had a good day for the Indians, going for 130 and a score. As for Tennessee, it was all Erik Ainge all the time, as the Vols QB completed 69% en route to 334 and a 4/1 ratio. Good for him.
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Auburn 55, New Mexico State 20
NMSU QB Chase Holbrook had excellent peripherals, completing 73% for 254 yards, but only had a 2/3 ratio. Brandon Cox actually had a good game as a caretaker, going 13/19 for 135 and a score, allow backs Ben Tate and Mario Fannin to each run for 100 yards. Really, this was the type of game Auburn fans expected them to have week in and week out, so I'll bump them up just a slight tad - of course, now they have to do it against SEC teams rather than New Mexico State.
Auburn: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Central Florida 56, Memphis 20
UCF absolutely smoking Memphis is pretty impressive, and Knights RB Kevin Smith is one of those mid-major Heisman darkhorses, adding to his resume with another 124 yards and 3 TD here. I'll keep both teams even, although I'm getting more and more bullish on UCF.
Central Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Memphis: STOCK NEUTRAL
North Dakota State 44, Central Michigan 14
CMU put up some offense, but NDSU scored at will. Everyone point and laugh!
Central Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Cincinnati 40, Marshall 14
The Bearcats played like the team people seem to think they are, pretty much shredding the Marshall secondary and putting a beatdown, rather than just taking advantage of turnovers. Ranking them this early is a bit much, since again, those unsustainable turnover rates have made their wins more impressive, but they're getting there.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Marshall: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado 42, Miami of Ohio 0
CU outgained the RedHawks 634-139, which about covers it. Just so impressive that I had to note. I've kept my opinion of CU pretty steady since bumping them up after the CSU win, but I'll knock MOH down a notch.
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL
Miami of Ohio: STOCK DOWN
Houston 38, Colorado State 27
Houston RB Anthony Alridge only had 4.1 YPC, so it looks like the dream of a 10 average is over. Houston's offense just outplayed CSU's, but Colorado State is probably the best 0-3 team out there, as they have a very good QB, a very good RB, and a fine enough defense. They've just had the bad luck of losing to Colorado in OT and then facing two top offenses in Cal and Houston.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Connecticut 34, Pittsburgh 14
Frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick finally made his debut, and it was actually a good one, and he completed 66% of his passes for 230 yards; unfortunately, he only threw 1 touchdown relative to 3 interceptions. And honestly, that was pretty much the difference, as one of those picks was returned for a TD, and UConn really didn't do much of anything on offense. Huskies QB Tyler Lorenzen was especially disappointing, completing only 12 of his 25 passes. A good win in terms or prestige, but amazingly uninspiring in terms of actual performance. UConn somehow got 3 AP votes this week, which made me laugh; after all, we've only beat Pitt, Duke, Maine, and Temple. The frightening thing, as I've said, is that the Huskies should still beat Akron next week, and have a chance against Virginia to guarantee at least a .500 record. And, God, maybe they'll get ranked. Plus, with Syracuse on the schedule, UConn could actually have a 7-5 year, somehow. As for Pitt, Bostick's performance was a good sign, especially after the cavalcade of suck that was replacement Kevan Smith, but it's still probably gonna be a looong year.
Connecticut: STOCK NEUTRAL
Pittsburgh: STOCK NEUTRAL
Navy 46, Duke 43
SHOOTOUT! I'll bump Duke up a notch for being competitive in an offense-based contest, led by QB Thaddeus Lewis's 23/36, 428 yard, 4/1 ratio day.
Navy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke: STOCK UP
Virginia 28, Georgia Tech 23
Virginia finally played up to their preseason projections, as QB Jameel Sewell went from horrible to perfectly fine, going 16/25 for 177 and a TD. RB Cedric Peerman also had a good day, going for 138 and a score. GT looks like they were overrated early, and QB Taylor Bennett's performance was a classic example of counting stats overrating him, as while he had 230 and a 1/1 ratio, he only completed 42.5% of his passes. Virginia's getting its act together, finally, and GT's reputation is slipping, even if they could still do well in that wide-open ACC.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Northern Illinois 42, Idaho 35
Yes, Idaho had 423 yards passing. That pretty much nullifies NIU finally getting a win after losing to Eastern Michigan and I-AA Southern Illinois.
Northern Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Idaho: STOCK NEUTRAL
Illinois 27, Indiana 24
Illinois QB Juice Williams remains frustrating, as he only completed 46% en route to only 98 yards and a 2/2 ratio. Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall obviously carried the offense here, going for 214 and a TD. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis wasn't overly impressive either, but he did complete over half his passes (51%), and had 263 and a 2/1 ratio. This really could've gone either way, nothing's really changed with either team.
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Indiana: STOCK NEUTRAL
Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 14
UND actually gained 117 yards rushing, but any productivity by the Irish was mostly due to turnovers and field position. MSU's looked good against what's a fairly light schedule, so I'll keep them steady, but I'll actually nudge UND ever so slightly upwards, from "scorched earth in the wake of a nuclear holocaust" to, say, "scorched earth in the wake of a giant wildfire" since James Aldridge actually ran for 104 yards. That's something.
Michigan State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State 49, Texas Tech 45
Much like Louisville-Kentucky, this isn't really a sign of anything for either team, since, well, duh either could win in a shootout. OK State's 610 yards were actually somewhat balanced, while TTU's pass-heavy 718 yards led to QB Graham Harrell's insane line: 46/67, 646 yards, 5 TD. Yep.
Oklahoma State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Texas Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane 35, Southeastern Louisiana 27
Figured I should mention Tulane RB Matt Forte's comical line: 40 carries, 303 yards, 5 TD.
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL
UCLA 44, Washington 31
The Bruins won this on the ground, with Chris Markey going for 193 yards and a TD on only 14 carries, and Kahlil Bell adding 109 and a score. Washington QB Jake Locker reminded everyone he is still a redshirt freshman, as he only completed 47%, albeit for a productive 216 yards and 4/2 ratio. UCLA's still an above-average team, but I'll back off on my early Washington love slightly for now.
UCLA: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK DOWN
UNLV 27, Utah 0
Well, that UCLA win was a fluke.
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah: STOCK DOWN
It was 28-7 after three quarters, so it's not like this was a dogfight where LSU pulled away late. And really, while this wasn't a flat-out destruction of an offense like the Tigers had against Virginia Tech, the LSU defense was once again a dominant unit. The SC QBs were able to put up some not-horrible counting stats, putting up 244 yards and a bad-not-horrible 1/2 ratio, but neither Chris Smelley or Blake Mitchell completed half their passes. And meanwhile, LSU absolutely shut down the running game, holding the Gamecocks to only 17 yards. My instinct was to say that this shows LSU is beatable if their offense is having a bad day, but, well, this WAS their offense having a bad day. The running back committee was quite productive, but QB Matt Flynn had more or less the same line as an SC QB, completing only 42% of his passes for a 1/1 ratio. LSU remains a dominant team, and as for South Carolina, it's hard to fault them for running into such a brick wall.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#2 Oklahoma 62, Tulsa 21
Dang. OU didn't stop Tulsa from racking up 398 yards, but they did keep the Golden Hurricane from being overly productive, and sacked Tulsa QBs 6 times. They also exhibited a LSU-esque run defense, holding Tulsa to only 44 yards on the ground. But the real impressive thing is the OU offense, which was once again a well-oiled machine. QB Sam Bradford completed 73% of his 22 passes for 244 and a 3/1 ratio, and Allen Patrick was this week's leading RB, going for 145 and 2 TD on 19 carries, though redshirt frosh sensation DeMarco Murray also had 46 and 2 scores on 8 touches. Tulsa isn't Virginia Tech or Miami or anything, but this was another impressive, dominating performance.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulsa: STOCK NEUTRAL
#3 West Virginia 48, East Carolina 7
Utter domination, as the WVU defense came through with flying colors, holding the Pirates to only 160 yards. Pat White had an excellent day passing, going for 18/20 for 181 and 2 TD, and added 42 and 2 more scores on the ground. He's probably my Heisman leader at the moment. Slaton also had his usual good day, going for 110 and a score of his own. Nice to see a good game from the WVU defense, and this probably remains the best, or at least the "least stoppable," offense in the country.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
East Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#4 USC 47, Washington State 14
Pretty much the same story as the Nebraska game, as USC neutralized the opposing offense and was able to exploit a suspect defense, although this time QB John David Booty was more productive, going 28/35 for 279 and a 4/1 TD. Same old, same old, USC's still one of the few elite teams, but I still have them as fourth-best, especially with WVU dominating so much this week. And sadly, with USC's next three games against Stanford, Arizona, and Notre Dame, it may be awhile before they have something to gain.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Michigan 14, #5 Penn State 9
Well, Anthony Morelli hasn't improved. He didn't have any picks, but then again, he had no touchdowns and only completed 48.4% of his passes, so he's more, say, Brandon Cox than Carson Palmer as far as "finally getting in during a senior season" goes. The Michigan defense looked good, only holding PSU to 270 yards, and Wolverines QB Ryan Mallett was decent enough (16/29, 170, INT) was good enough to let Mike Hart win it on 153 yards and a touchdown. I said I'd believe it when I see it regarding Michigan, and things are looking better; they're like, all cleaned up and back on the wagon, and they're showing up wearing a suit and looking good and everything, but you still have that feeling things could implode and wind up where they started at any moment. So, yeah, any faith in Morelli was proven unjustified, and while Michigan's stock is taking a step up, they're not back to being Michigan just yet.
Michigan: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN
#6 Ohio State 58, Northwestern 7
OSU "only" had 396 yards, but as the score shows, that offense was an efficient wrecking ball. QB Todd Boeckman was Sam Bradford-esque, going 11/14 for 179 and a 4/1 ratio, and Chris Wells, funnily enough, did a DeMarco Murray impression, going for 100 and a TD. And the defense was dominant as usual, holding Northwestern to 120 yards, all passing. Northwestern looks to be sliding quickly after a great start, and with this, OSU definitively becomes the fifth elite team in the nation.
Ohio State: STOCK UP
Northwestern: STOCK DOWN
#8 Texas 58, Rice 14
Rice's 7 wins last year means nothing; this was essentially Texas beating up on a I-AA team, and thus there's very little to be taken from it, even if holding a team to negative 11 rushing yards is pretty neat.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Rice: STOCK NEUTRAL
#9 Florida 30, Mississippi 24
Tim Tebow was his usual dreamy self, in fact earning the coveted KINSMON LANCASTER AWARD for outgaining the entire opposition by his lonesome, passing for 261 and rushing for 166, making for a total of 427 yards versus Ole Miss's 390. Really, with UF shutting down the run just fine, the only point of concern is that secondary, as unheralded Rebels QB Seth Adams completed 58% of his passes for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. Ole Miss has been more competitive that I've expected, so I'll bump them up, but Florida remains where I had them -- a very good team, but questions with that young defense keep me from bumping them into the elite.
Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi: STOCK UP
#15 Georgia 26, #10 Alabama 23 (OT)
Pretty much insanely even, as everything was close in every aspect. I picked Georgia to win on the rationale that Stafford had been slightly more consistent than Wilson, and the only tangible difference in the game was Stafford (54%, 224, 2/2) being slightly more productive than Wilson (49%, 185, 0/0). I deserve full credit for this. But, really, it was a neat game, not much to really take out of it - they're essentially the same, very good team.
Georgia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Alabama: STOCK NEUTRAL
#11 Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13
A somewhat unimpressive win for the Badgers. QB Tyler Donovan was decent, but not spectacular - he at least completed over 50% of his passes (52%), but only had 138 yards and a 1/1 ratio. Running back PJ Hill had good counting stats, with 113 and a TD, but only had 3.9 yards per carry. I'll nudge Wisconsin down, even if the ranking doesn't won't necessarily show it too much - there really is a lack of top quality teams so far this year. Oh, and as for Iowa...bleh. I nudged them down after the ISU loss, and that's about where they deserve to be.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Iowa: STOCK NEUTRAL
#12 Oregon 55, Stanford 31
Stanford was actually up 31-24 before Oregon decided they had enough and just went crazy. Ducks QB Dennis Dixon had his usual great game, going for 367 and 4 TD on 75% passing, and RB Jonathan Stewart was a juggernaut as well, with 160 and a TD on over 8 yards per carry. The bigger story is Stanford being competitive though, with QB T.C. Ostrander being decent (57%, 268, 2/1) and RB Anthony Kimble having a very good game, going for 119 and 2 scores. Oregon, as expected for a Pac 10 team, has some questions on defense, and as I've said before, Stanford looks like a team that Jim Harbaugh is going to coach up to an upset or two. Yep.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL
Miami 34, #13 Texas A&M 17
Texas A&M's lack of balance finally caught up with them, since as I said, if Miami can do one thing, it's stop the run. They held the Aggies to just 98 yards on the ground, and it turns out they could actually do more than one thing, with QB Kyle Wright completing 81! percent of his passes for 275 and 2 TD, and leading rusher Graig Cooper having only 50 yards and a TD, but gashing the Aggies D for 7.1 yards a carry. I'll knock the Aggies down a notch, since again, their lack of balance caught up with them, but they should still be in my top 25; and since Miami actually showed an offense, I'll bump them back up.
Miami: STOCK UP
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN
Syracuse 38, #14 Louisville 35
???!?!?!? I watched this game, and this happened, but, um, what? Louisville's offense was actually still pretty great, particularly QB Brian Brohm, who had 555 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 69% passing. But Louisville's defense allowed the Syracuse offense to have a Madden-tastic day; there were many moments when it looked like Louisville had switched to the wrong defender, allowing Syracuse to break one for a bunch of yards after catch. Cuse QB Andrew Robinson fumbled two snaps, including one on what would've been the game-sealing drive late, but he acquitted himself with a pretty insane day passing, going 17/26 for 423 yards and 4 TD. Louisville obviously gets knocked down because oh my god, that defense is "Notre Dame offense" bad, while I'll give Syracuse a slight nudge up; they ARE playing this defense and all, but either way the offense is showing signs of life, which as a Connecticut fan, slightly worries me.
Syracuse: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
#16 Virginia Tech 44, William & Mary 3
VT had 3 field goals, a defensive TD, and a return TD, so the yardage was actually fairly even, but, yeah, Hokies should've won this one and they did.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
#17 Missouri 38, Illinois State 17
Much more statistically impressive than the VT game, but still, nothing to see here.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
#18 Arizona State 44, Oregon State 32
A mixed bag with the Sun Devils here, as OSU actually had the yardage edge. The Beavers actually stuck with one QB too, and while Sean Canfield had 58% passing and 324 yards, he only had 2 TD versus 5 interceptions. RB Yvenson Bernard had a better day, though, running for 128 and a score. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter was the star of their offense, going 25/36 for 361 and a 4/1 ratio. The Sun Devils are the best of the glut near the middle of the Pac 10, rather than up there with USC and Oregon, and I'll keep them steady; I'll also nudge Oregon State up for actually sticking with one QB - they should be better down the stretch than they've been so far.
Arizona State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oregon State: STOCK UP
#19 South Florida 37, North Carolina 10
USF just absolutely shut down UNC here. Matt Grothe had the only impressive individual line for the Bulls, completing 57% for 230 and a score, which sure as hell beats things on the UNC side. Heels QB TJ Yates looked better against UVA, but that was completely undone here, as he only completed 41% for 85 yards and an 0/4 TD/INT ratio. Ew. I'll pump USF up a notch as they come off more like a deserving top 25 team than one there by attrition now, and UNC is still a year or two away.
South Florida: STOCK UP
North Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#20 Clemson 42, NC State 20
Outstandingly one-sided. Clemson's running back duo came back with a vengeance, as James Davis had 166 yards and a TD while C.J. Spiller added 114 yards and a score of his own. QB Cullen Harper also did quite well, completing 64% for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. As for things on the NCSU side, there isn't much to say as the Wolfpack barely cracked 200 yards. QB Harrison Beck was knocked out early, and last year's starter, Daniel Evans, was fairly decent, going 16/25 for 123 and a 1/1 ratio. So that's something. I'll keep both teams steady for the time being.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL
NC State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#21 Hawaii 66, Charleston Southern 10
Colt Brennan missed the game, but it didn't matter, outside of probably hurting his Heisman chances. Backup Tyler Graunke had some INTs that Brennan probably wouldn't have, but other than that, business as usual.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
#23 California 45, Arizona 27
Well, that wasn't an upset, even if Arizona was the latest team to exploit the Cal secondary, with Willie Tuitama throwing for 309 yards on 69% passing, even if he only had a 1/2 ratio. Cal QB Nate Longshore was slightly less impressive, completing only 53% for 235 and a 1/1 ratio. Still, he had something helping him out that Tuitama didn't: a running game, as Cal's Justin Forsett ran for 117 and 2 scores. Arizona is still going through growing pains and an outside shot to make .500, while I'll harp on the same thing with Cal that I always do: that secondary is going to get torched and lead them to a loss.
California: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK NEUTRAL
#24 Boston College 37, Army 17
Yawn. BC just smacked the crap out of Army like they should've. QB Matt Ryan had excellent peripherals, but someone of his hype shouldn't have thrown 2 picks here. The Eagles remain a very good, very overrated team.
Boston College: STOCK NEUTRAL
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL
#25 Nebraska 41, Ball State 40
BSU actually outgained the Huskers 610-552; I figured they'd be able to exploit the Nebraska D, but not to that extent. BSU's Nate Davis and Nebraska's Sam Keller had about even counting stats, with equal 3/1 ratios and 422 and 438 yards, respectively, but Keller had a 78% completion percentage to Davis's 61. Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis was the revelation here, going for 122 and a TD on 19 carries. Nebraska's defense is worse than I thought, so they get a nudge down. Ball State gets a move up, since they now seem to be in the upper tier of the MAC; still, with the MAC being so even, who knows both what that's worth and how long that'll last.
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
Ball State: STOCK UP
Brigham Young 31, Air Force 6
Pretty much a bitchslapping, as while Air Force's pass/run ratio was fairly even, that's because neither was that productive. Oddly, my opinion of either team doesn't really change - AFA is Navy-esque dangerous-if-not-overly-talented, and BYU is one of those teams that can win a shootout with anyone.
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL
Air Force: STOCK NEUTRAL
Kentucky 42, Arkansas 29
This hurts Arkansas more than serves as any sort of vindication for UK, at least in my eyes. Andre' Woodson is in fact a good QB (even if he'll be taken much too high in the NFL draft), even if he surprisingly only completed 54% en route to 265 yards and 2 TD. And Arkansas's offense also had something unsurprising, in that the Razorback running backs had a field day, with McFadden going for 173 yards and a TD, and Felix Jones adding 133 yards on an obscene 11.1 yards per carry. But the big thing here is, holy crap, just how awful Arkansas QB Casey Dick is. He had 157 yards, but couldn't complete half his passes, and had an 0/2 TD/INT ratio. Against KENTUCKY. KENTUCKY! Just pathetic. Arkansas no longer seems like a team that McFadden and Jones can carry to victory, but one that will attempt to lose in spite of them. Bah.
Kentucky: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Tennessee 48, Arkansas State 27
ASU QB Corey Leonard was unable to exploit this secondary, throwing for only 199 and a 1/2 ratio. Still, RB Reggie Arnold had a good day for the Indians, going for 130 and a score. As for Tennessee, it was all Erik Ainge all the time, as the Vols QB completed 69% en route to 334 and a 4/1 ratio. Good for him.
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Auburn 55, New Mexico State 20
NMSU QB Chase Holbrook had excellent peripherals, completing 73% for 254 yards, but only had a 2/3 ratio. Brandon Cox actually had a good game as a caretaker, going 13/19 for 135 and a score, allow backs Ben Tate and Mario Fannin to each run for 100 yards. Really, this was the type of game Auburn fans expected them to have week in and week out, so I'll bump them up just a slight tad - of course, now they have to do it against SEC teams rather than New Mexico State.
Auburn: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Central Florida 56, Memphis 20
UCF absolutely smoking Memphis is pretty impressive, and Knights RB Kevin Smith is one of those mid-major Heisman darkhorses, adding to his resume with another 124 yards and 3 TD here. I'll keep both teams even, although I'm getting more and more bullish on UCF.
Central Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Memphis: STOCK NEUTRAL
North Dakota State 44, Central Michigan 14
CMU put up some offense, but NDSU scored at will. Everyone point and laugh!
Central Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Cincinnati 40, Marshall 14
The Bearcats played like the team people seem to think they are, pretty much shredding the Marshall secondary and putting a beatdown, rather than just taking advantage of turnovers. Ranking them this early is a bit much, since again, those unsustainable turnover rates have made their wins more impressive, but they're getting there.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Marshall: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado 42, Miami of Ohio 0
CU outgained the RedHawks 634-139, which about covers it. Just so impressive that I had to note. I've kept my opinion of CU pretty steady since bumping them up after the CSU win, but I'll knock MOH down a notch.
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL
Miami of Ohio: STOCK DOWN
Houston 38, Colorado State 27
Houston RB Anthony Alridge only had 4.1 YPC, so it looks like the dream of a 10 average is over. Houston's offense just outplayed CSU's, but Colorado State is probably the best 0-3 team out there, as they have a very good QB, a very good RB, and a fine enough defense. They've just had the bad luck of losing to Colorado in OT and then facing two top offenses in Cal and Houston.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Connecticut 34, Pittsburgh 14
Frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick finally made his debut, and it was actually a good one, and he completed 66% of his passes for 230 yards; unfortunately, he only threw 1 touchdown relative to 3 interceptions. And honestly, that was pretty much the difference, as one of those picks was returned for a TD, and UConn really didn't do much of anything on offense. Huskies QB Tyler Lorenzen was especially disappointing, completing only 12 of his 25 passes. A good win in terms or prestige, but amazingly uninspiring in terms of actual performance. UConn somehow got 3 AP votes this week, which made me laugh; after all, we've only beat Pitt, Duke, Maine, and Temple. The frightening thing, as I've said, is that the Huskies should still beat Akron next week, and have a chance against Virginia to guarantee at least a .500 record. And, God, maybe they'll get ranked. Plus, with Syracuse on the schedule, UConn could actually have a 7-5 year, somehow. As for Pitt, Bostick's performance was a good sign, especially after the cavalcade of suck that was replacement Kevan Smith, but it's still probably gonna be a looong year.
Connecticut: STOCK NEUTRAL
Pittsburgh: STOCK NEUTRAL
Navy 46, Duke 43
SHOOTOUT! I'll bump Duke up a notch for being competitive in an offense-based contest, led by QB Thaddeus Lewis's 23/36, 428 yard, 4/1 ratio day.
Navy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke: STOCK UP
Virginia 28, Georgia Tech 23
Virginia finally played up to their preseason projections, as QB Jameel Sewell went from horrible to perfectly fine, going 16/25 for 177 and a TD. RB Cedric Peerman also had a good day, going for 138 and a score. GT looks like they were overrated early, and QB Taylor Bennett's performance was a classic example of counting stats overrating him, as while he had 230 and a 1/1 ratio, he only completed 42.5% of his passes. Virginia's getting its act together, finally, and GT's reputation is slipping, even if they could still do well in that wide-open ACC.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Northern Illinois 42, Idaho 35
Yes, Idaho had 423 yards passing. That pretty much nullifies NIU finally getting a win after losing to Eastern Michigan and I-AA Southern Illinois.
Northern Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Idaho: STOCK NEUTRAL
Illinois 27, Indiana 24
Illinois QB Juice Williams remains frustrating, as he only completed 46% en route to only 98 yards and a 2/2 ratio. Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall obviously carried the offense here, going for 214 and a TD. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis wasn't overly impressive either, but he did complete over half his passes (51%), and had 263 and a 2/1 ratio. This really could've gone either way, nothing's really changed with either team.
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Indiana: STOCK NEUTRAL
Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 14
UND actually gained 117 yards rushing, but any productivity by the Irish was mostly due to turnovers and field position. MSU's looked good against what's a fairly light schedule, so I'll keep them steady, but I'll actually nudge UND ever so slightly upwards, from "scorched earth in the wake of a nuclear holocaust" to, say, "scorched earth in the wake of a giant wildfire" since James Aldridge actually ran for 104 yards. That's something.
Michigan State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State 49, Texas Tech 45
Much like Louisville-Kentucky, this isn't really a sign of anything for either team, since, well, duh either could win in a shootout. OK State's 610 yards were actually somewhat balanced, while TTU's pass-heavy 718 yards led to QB Graham Harrell's insane line: 46/67, 646 yards, 5 TD. Yep.
Oklahoma State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Texas Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane 35, Southeastern Louisiana 27
Figured I should mention Tulane RB Matt Forte's comical line: 40 carries, 303 yards, 5 TD.
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL
UCLA 44, Washington 31
The Bruins won this on the ground, with Chris Markey going for 193 yards and a TD on only 14 carries, and Kahlil Bell adding 109 and a score. Washington QB Jake Locker reminded everyone he is still a redshirt freshman, as he only completed 47%, albeit for a productive 216 yards and 4/2 ratio. UCLA's still an above-average team, but I'll back off on my early Washington love slightly for now.
UCLA: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK DOWN
UNLV 27, Utah 0
Well, that UCLA win was a fluke.
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah: STOCK DOWN
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Week 4 Preview: Saturday and Sunday
God, it's Week 4 already. Approaching that time of year where almost all the games are I-A vs. I-A, so I only have to write blurbs on, say, 58 or so a week.
12:00 PM
East Carolina (1-2) @ #3 West Virginia (3-0)
ECU looks like a better team than Marshall, so ECU is capable of putting a scare into the Mountaineers, but I keep saying the same thing about WVU, and it's why I have them ranked at #3: Other teams may hang with them for a while, but very few teams can run with them over four quarters, and eventually the WVU offense is just going to take over the game. ECU is not one of the teams that can score with them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Syracuse (0-3) @ #14 Louisville (2-1)
Louisville, as last week showed, can lose a shootout. Syracuse's idea of getting into a shootout is scoring, say, 21 points. Syracuse seems to be the worst team in a BCS conference, and easily at that.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-2) @ #19 South Florida (2-0)
UNC's not that bad; they could knock off a team or two in the wide-open ACC, and they're a young team that's only getting better. And really, USF isn't at the level of team where upsets like this aren't possible; still, the Bulls are solidly better than UNC, and should win this one easily, if not in a blowout.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
#20 Clemson (3-0) @ NC State (1-2)
An intriguing upset pick, even if I won't pull the trigger. Clemson's been a mercurial team, and they didn't look too great in a win against Furman, and really haven't been tested since the FSU game. NCSU's disappointed greatly through their first three games, and there's the looming feeling they could get their act together at any moment. Thhis really feels like a game Clemson could fumble this away or just underperform without any real warning, but I'll stick with the Tigers, likely against my better judgment.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
Kent State (2-1) @ Akron (1-2)
Akron's offense showed signs of life against Indiana last week, but the Zips have been terrible overall. Kent State's a perfectly fine MAC team, and while the usual MAC parity warning applies, KSU's the easy favorites.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Temple (0-3) @ Bowling Green (1-1)
Temple got robbed against UConn last week, so expect the Owls to use that as inspiration, and lead them to a loss against a resurgent team that's better than them. Well, Temple did manage to beat BGSU last year, but still, the Falcons have their act together much moreso this season.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Georgia Tech (2-1) @ Virginia (2-1)
A bit of a wild-card game. GT looked excellent against weaker competition before BC handled them easy, and UVA was horrible against Wyoming, but had solid wins against the two worst teams in the conference. If Virginia's offense couldn't handle Wyoming's D (which is actually the best they're faced so far), GT should at the very least be able to shut the Cavs down. It may be an ugly defensive struggle, but GT's the better team on both sides of the ball.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Illinois (2-1) @ Indiana (3-0)
The showdown to determine who the surprise team in the Big Ten is, essentially. Illinois was extremely unlucky last year, but this year are still somewhat unproven; they looked impressive in a shootout loss to Missouri, and then easily beat I-AA Western Illinois and might as well be I-AA Syracuse. Indiana has similar questions - they've beaten I-AA Indiana State, a pretty bad team this year in Akron, and a Western Michigan squad that now looks overrated. Illinois has more talent, but the best player on the field may be Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who's had 643 and a 9/3 ratio on 60% passing, and is also IU's leading rusher with 317 yards. It's about an even game, essentially "Talent & Potential @ Performance So Far", and since Performance So Far also has the home-field advantage, I'll go with the Hoosiers.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#9 Florida (3-0) @ Mississippi (1-2)
Florida's been a juggernaut against three weak teams and an overrated Tennessee, but I'm still anxious to see how they do when they get a real test. This ain't it.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
Ball State (2-1) @ #25 Nebraska (2-1)
Ball State's been a bit of a surprise in the MAC so far, and is a one-point loss to Miami Ohio away from being undefeated. I guess they have the offense to actually score on what's a suspect Nebraska defense, but come on now, they won't be able to stop the Huskers.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Army (1-2) @ #24 Boston College (3-0)
BC's quite overrated by the polls thanks to the seeming necessity of having an ACC presence, but the reality is just that they're the most impressive team and one of the top three (with VT and Clemson) in the glut of above-averageness that is that conference. That said, Army's probably in the bottom 10 teams in I-A, and will be crushed.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Duke (1-2) @ Navy (1-2)
Duke's competitive this year, as the Northwestern win showed, which makes this interesting. Navy can, and will, run on anyone, but their defense is weak enough this year to let anyone in the game. Surprisingly even, and essentially a pick 'em, I'll give the nod to homefield and past performance.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
William & Mary @ #16 Virginia Tech (2-1)
Phew, VT scheduled a I-AA cupcake. I was almost worried they hadn't this year.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
2:00 PM
Illinois State @ #17 Missouri (3-0)
Seeing how Missouri's offense does will be fun, unless everyone's sitting by the half. Yep.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 5
3:00 PM
Air Force (3-0) @ Brigham Young (1-2)
AFA's one of the biggest question marks in the nation, as their one solid win was the big upset of TCU, and the question remains if that was luck or something substantial. This won't be a walk, since BYU's way better than that 1-2 record, with an offense that can hang with pretty much anyone's. In fact, I expect BYU to be able to rack up a bunch of points here against an Air Force defense that has yet to really be tested and then go on to the win; how the AFA offense looks here should answer the questions about their going the rest of the year.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (2-1) @ Ohio (2-1)
Could go either way, as these are two teams that have been solidly above-average if not especially great. Ohio has homefield, but Wyoming's looked a bit more impressive, especially with the win against Virginia on their resume.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#7 South Carolina (3-0) @ #1 LSU (3-0)
South Carolina's my #2 ranked team in the SEC right now, and with Florida still being somewhat of a wild card, is probably no worse than third. The Gamecocks have a legendary offensive mind at head coach, and a veteran defense that's one of the more talented in the country. LSU could still beat them 35-0.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
#5 Penn State (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2)
Despite Michigan's woes, this still looks like the biggest road game on Penn State's schedule. Henne's still a question mark for UM, and whether or not he plays may be the difference, as the stout Penn State defense may wreak some havoc on the suddenly suspect Michigan offensive line. Really, for two teams with such distant rankings (or lack thereof), this could go either way; Penn State is by no means a juggernaut, and Michigan has the defensive talent to either shut down the running game, exploit PSU QB Anthony Morelli's mistakes, or do both. But, well, banking on Michigan's potential has burned pretty much everyone, so I'll call for Mike Hart to be impressive as usual, and, if not quite in Michigan-Oregon fashion, another disappointing loss for the Wolverines.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern (2-1) @ #6 Ohio State (3-0)
NW's a fine team, despite losing to Duke. Still, that OSU defense would be frightening if LSU wasn't setting such a high standard, and they should be able to shut the Wildcats down easy.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Memphis (1-1) @ Central Florida (1-1)
Memphis is a wild card, outplaying Ole Miss in a loss and then beating I-AA Jacksonville State. Still, UCF's been too impressive not to pick at home, beating NC State and putting a scare into Texas.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
North Dakota State @ Central Michigan (1-2)
CMU's a good enough team to not get caught. Yep.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (1-2) @ Colorado (1-2)
Miami was the latest victim of Cincinnati's Turnover-Related Path Of Rage, but is the solid level of MAC team that can put a scare into lower-tier BCS schools. And Colorado probably fits in that. Still, the Buffaloes are a level above, say, Minnesota, who Miami took to OT, and CU has enough talent where they should win this comfortably at home.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Howard @ Eastern Michigan (1-2)
Just repeat the CMU blurb above, although Eastern's a worse team than Central.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 3
Maryland (2-1) @ Wake Forest (1-2)
Two more teams in the glut of the ACC upper-tier. Maryland's probably looked better, but against weaker competition, and Wake was the better team last year, even if both were lucky. Wake's at home, and as I've said many times, they look like a team that's going to a win a few games they shouldn't, so what the hell, I'll choose them in a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (3-0) @ Notre Dame (0-3)
This screams "upset", but I can't even visualize Notre Dame winning. Michigan State has a very good running back in Jehuu Caulcrick, and that one-man show should put this game out of reach for the Irish alone. Notre Dame could win on turnovers and field position, which given Michigan State's history isn't out of the question, but, really, I can't see it.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 3
Texas Tech (3-0) @ Oklahoma State (1-2)
OK State's horribly disappointing, but could actually win a shootout here. Still, TTU's offense has been so prolific, and OK State's defense has been so horrible, that the Red Raiders should win easy. Then again, I thought Louisville-Kentucky would play out much the same way.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
Colorado State (0-2) @ Houston (1-1)
CSU was very close against Colorado and Cal, so they're better than that winless record. Houston had an excellent performance in a loss to Oregon, but was less than dominant in beating Tulane, so the Cougars offense seems somewhat shaky and erratic with the graduation of Kevin Kolb. CSU's showed they can score easily with the veteran duo of QB Caleb Hanie and RB Kyle Bell, so I'll pick the Rams to win what could wind up being a pretty fun little game.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Northern Illinois (0-3) @ Idaho (1-2)
NIU's been shaky enough where this game is almost a pick 'em, especially since the Vandals are the team here that actually beat their I-AA opponent. I'll give NIU the edge as I hold onto the last scraps of hope that the Huskies' talent will result in something.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Arizona (1-2) @ #23 California (3-0)
Arizona's offshoot of the Texas Tech offense seems to be taking, and Cal has an extremely suspect pass defense, AND this is probably the toughest defense Cal has faced yet. HMMMMM. The warning lights are going off for the upset alert in my gut, but I'll refrain from pulling the trigger on an Arizona win since they're a Mike Stoops-coached team who doesn't win games like this and all.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 1
Kentucky (3-0) @ Arkansas (1-1)
Wait, what? Kentucky's actually ranked? That wasn't, like, from the Onion or something? UK's one chance to prevent Darren McFadden from having a monster game will be if the Wildcats break his leg like they did Michael Bush's last year. Of course, this will only result in Felix Jones having a monster game en route to an Arkansas win, but hey, at least Kentucky can look back on their top-25 worthy wins against Louisville and...Kent State?
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 4
Baylor (2-1) @ Buffalo (1-2)
Baylor's wins have been against I-AA Texas State and Rice, who may be the worst team in I-A, so it's hard to tell where the Bears stand. Buffalo beat Temple like a dead hooker in Grand Theft Auto, so the Bulls at least seem to be a much improved team. I'll give Baylor the edge just out of having Big 12-level talent, but a surprise win by Buffalo here wouldn't be much of a surprise.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Portland State @ San Diego State (0-2)
Portland State's an excellent I-AA team, so this'll be the closest I come to picking a I-AA outside of that one game last year where I got really pissed at some team and actually picked the I-AA.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Rice (0-3) @ #8 Texas (3-0)
UT's been somewhat disappointing, but as mentioned above, Rice is probably the worst team in I-A. Splat.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
Arkansas State (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-2)
Troy-OK State showed something like this could happen, and while ASU QB Corey Leonard is more than capable of exploiting a suspect Tennessee secondary, the talent gap is big enough where the Vols should win this solidly.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 3
New Mexico State (2-1) @ Auburn (1-2)
NMSU's high-powered offense has been somewhat disappointing this year, so Auburn should be able to shut things down and get a much-needed win.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Connecticut (3-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-1)
Finally seeing my beloved Huskies on television made me see that, well, this is the same old frustrating UConn team. Almost losing to Temple didn't help. That said, the same old frustrating UConn team beat Pitt in Hartford last year, and the Panthers were a much better team last season, and one that actually had a QB. The exasperating this is, that with this game, Syracuse, and two disappointing teams left out-of-conference in Virginia and Akron, UConn actually has a shot at not only being bowl eligible, but winning 7 games. God. And, as for who I'm choosing, this is essentially a pick 'em, so I'll go with last year's history, a lack of faith in Dave Wannstedt, and, frankly, a slight bit of personal bias.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (2-1) @ North Texas (0-2)
UNT is a team that can put up an insane amount of yardage, but FAU is coming off a big win against Minnesota. Really, FAU's a more complete team all-around, and UNT reminds me of NMSU last year: a lot of yardage, a lot of losses. Sun Belt parity warning applies, though.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Florida International (0-3) @ Kansas (3-0)
Kansas has been a buzzsaw, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 4
Iowa State (1-2) @ Toledo (0-3)
Toledo's been quite disappointing, especially in getting shut down by the aforementioned buzzsaw that is Kansas, but I don't think ISU's "death via field goal" offense is going to do well for more than one game.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Troy (1-2) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-3)
Troy's one of the top-tier Sun Belt teams. Whatever that's worth. I'm not exactly sure. Still, they're better.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Gardner-Webb @ Mississippi State (2-1)
MSU's a perfectly fine team, they should win here, move on folks, nothing to see here.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 4
Central Connecticut State @ Western Michigan (0-3)
CCSU had a running back drafted in the last draft. Yep. Isn't that fun for them.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
Marshall (0-3) @ Cincinnati (3-0)
Cincinnati's a bit overrated, since turnovers have made their wins look more impressive than they were, but the Bearcats should beat a scuffling Marshall team easy.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#15 Georgia (2-1) @ #10 Alabama (3-0)
Two outstandingly even teams, winning on defense and running with perfectly capable passing games. There's no real clear-cut edge here, as Georgia has the one loss, but the Bulldogs' passing game has been much more consistent. Hell, I'll actually give UGA the edge thanks to consistency, and really, just to spit in the face of the media's conventional wisdom, which is a surprisingly effective strategy.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Washington State (2-1) @ #4 USC (2-0)
USC's a thoroughly vulnerable team, but Wazzou is essentially an inferior version of the all-offense no-defense team that USC smashed last week in Nebraska.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Iowa (2-1) @ #11 Wisconsin (3-0)
Meh. Iowa's still a slightly above-average team despite the loss to Iowa State, but that loss makes it hard to have any faith in the Hawkeyes here. Still, Wisconsin's vulnerable, and Iowa still seems to have the defense where they can keep it close enough to win. But it's not like Iowa is any kind of offensive juggernaut, so I expect an ugly defensive game that Wisconsin wins by a touchdown or two.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
Sacramento State @ New Mexico (2-1)
UNM's a perfectly fine team that should win this without a problem. Yep.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 4
San Jose State (0-3) @ Utah State (0-3)
USU's actually been the more impressive team so far, as it seems like SJSU has regressed to their pre-2006 form. I'll call for the upset because really, why the hell not, and the Aggies have hung close with Wyoming and UNLV.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 1
Southeastern Louisiana @ Tulane (0-2)
Tulane's the type of lower-tier team that's vulnerable to upsets by I-AAs, but SELA's been pretty unimpressive in their games against I-A teams. Plus Tulane didn't look too awful against Houston, and Green Wave RB Matt Forte is good, so Tulane should hang on.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 3
8:30 PM
SMU (1-2) @ TCU (1-2)
TCU's been disappointing, but expectations were a bit high for the Horned Frogs in the preseason. They're a very good team, but not dominant in the MWC or anything. SMU, meanwhile, has disappointed just as much, if not more, looking pretty bad against Arkansas State and giving up a boatload of passing yards in a win against North Texas. So, essentially, TCU, while they may just be "above-average" instead of "top-25", should be able to shut down SMU and win this easy.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
Purdue (3-0) @ Minnesota (1-2)
Minnesota's secondary somehow gives up passing yards when the other team runs the ball, so this will be really fun and get really ugly really fast. This could wind up looking like what that Hawaii opening game would've if Colt Brennan had played the whole thing.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 5
9:05 PM
Texas Southern @ UTEP (1-2)
Another I-AA @ decent mid-major team that should easily beat a I-AA team game. Yawn.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#12 Oregon (3-0) @ Stanford (1-1)
Stanford has something there, and Jim Harbaugh should be able to coach the Cardinal up for an upset here or there, but here? No.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (2-1) @ #18 Arizona State (3-0)
Still remaining skeptical of Oregon State's QB play - it's been either low completion percentages or high amounts of interceptions against their I-A opponents, and I'll believe things are better when I see it. That, plus ASU being a juggernaut at home make this a pretty easy pick for the Sun Devils.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
Utah (1-2) @ UNLV (1-2)
I had left Utah for dead, but there's apparently something there, as the Utes smashed UCLA and good. UNLV doesn't look too ready to cash in on their potential, so Utah it is.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (2-1) @ UCLA (2-1)
Washington QB Jake Locker's legit, and UCLA showed their imploding tendencies, so who knows how this one's gonna go. Essentially a pick 'em, so I'm gonna go with my occasional strategy of picking against the conventional wisdom that an upset will happen, since conventional wisdom is often wrong. Woo.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Charleston Southern @ #21 Hawaii (3-0)
Colt Brennan may miss this, won't matter towards the result of the game. Should be fun.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
12:00 PM
East Carolina (1-2) @ #3 West Virginia (3-0)
ECU looks like a better team than Marshall, so ECU is capable of putting a scare into the Mountaineers, but I keep saying the same thing about WVU, and it's why I have them ranked at #3: Other teams may hang with them for a while, but very few teams can run with them over four quarters, and eventually the WVU offense is just going to take over the game. ECU is not one of the teams that can score with them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Syracuse (0-3) @ #14 Louisville (2-1)
Louisville, as last week showed, can lose a shootout. Syracuse's idea of getting into a shootout is scoring, say, 21 points. Syracuse seems to be the worst team in a BCS conference, and easily at that.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-2) @ #19 South Florida (2-0)
UNC's not that bad; they could knock off a team or two in the wide-open ACC, and they're a young team that's only getting better. And really, USF isn't at the level of team where upsets like this aren't possible; still, the Bulls are solidly better than UNC, and should win this one easily, if not in a blowout.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
#20 Clemson (3-0) @ NC State (1-2)
An intriguing upset pick, even if I won't pull the trigger. Clemson's been a mercurial team, and they didn't look too great in a win against Furman, and really haven't been tested since the FSU game. NCSU's disappointed greatly through their first three games, and there's the looming feeling they could get their act together at any moment. Thhis really feels like a game Clemson could fumble this away or just underperform without any real warning, but I'll stick with the Tigers, likely against my better judgment.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
Kent State (2-1) @ Akron (1-2)
Akron's offense showed signs of life against Indiana last week, but the Zips have been terrible overall. Kent State's a perfectly fine MAC team, and while the usual MAC parity warning applies, KSU's the easy favorites.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Temple (0-3) @ Bowling Green (1-1)
Temple got robbed against UConn last week, so expect the Owls to use that as inspiration, and lead them to a loss against a resurgent team that's better than them. Well, Temple did manage to beat BGSU last year, but still, the Falcons have their act together much moreso this season.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Georgia Tech (2-1) @ Virginia (2-1)
A bit of a wild-card game. GT looked excellent against weaker competition before BC handled them easy, and UVA was horrible against Wyoming, but had solid wins against the two worst teams in the conference. If Virginia's offense couldn't handle Wyoming's D (which is actually the best they're faced so far), GT should at the very least be able to shut the Cavs down. It may be an ugly defensive struggle, but GT's the better team on both sides of the ball.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Illinois (2-1) @ Indiana (3-0)
The showdown to determine who the surprise team in the Big Ten is, essentially. Illinois was extremely unlucky last year, but this year are still somewhat unproven; they looked impressive in a shootout loss to Missouri, and then easily beat I-AA Western Illinois and might as well be I-AA Syracuse. Indiana has similar questions - they've beaten I-AA Indiana State, a pretty bad team this year in Akron, and a Western Michigan squad that now looks overrated. Illinois has more talent, but the best player on the field may be Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who's had 643 and a 9/3 ratio on 60% passing, and is also IU's leading rusher with 317 yards. It's about an even game, essentially "Talent & Potential @ Performance So Far", and since Performance So Far also has the home-field advantage, I'll go with the Hoosiers.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#9 Florida (3-0) @ Mississippi (1-2)
Florida's been a juggernaut against three weak teams and an overrated Tennessee, but I'm still anxious to see how they do when they get a real test. This ain't it.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
Ball State (2-1) @ #25 Nebraska (2-1)
Ball State's been a bit of a surprise in the MAC so far, and is a one-point loss to Miami Ohio away from being undefeated. I guess they have the offense to actually score on what's a suspect Nebraska defense, but come on now, they won't be able to stop the Huskers.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Army (1-2) @ #24 Boston College (3-0)
BC's quite overrated by the polls thanks to the seeming necessity of having an ACC presence, but the reality is just that they're the most impressive team and one of the top three (with VT and Clemson) in the glut of above-averageness that is that conference. That said, Army's probably in the bottom 10 teams in I-A, and will be crushed.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Duke (1-2) @ Navy (1-2)
Duke's competitive this year, as the Northwestern win showed, which makes this interesting. Navy can, and will, run on anyone, but their defense is weak enough this year to let anyone in the game. Surprisingly even, and essentially a pick 'em, I'll give the nod to homefield and past performance.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
William & Mary @ #16 Virginia Tech (2-1)
Phew, VT scheduled a I-AA cupcake. I was almost worried they hadn't this year.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
2:00 PM
Illinois State @ #17 Missouri (3-0)
Seeing how Missouri's offense does will be fun, unless everyone's sitting by the half. Yep.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 5
3:00 PM
Air Force (3-0) @ Brigham Young (1-2)
AFA's one of the biggest question marks in the nation, as their one solid win was the big upset of TCU, and the question remains if that was luck or something substantial. This won't be a walk, since BYU's way better than that 1-2 record, with an offense that can hang with pretty much anyone's. In fact, I expect BYU to be able to rack up a bunch of points here against an Air Force defense that has yet to really be tested and then go on to the win; how the AFA offense looks here should answer the questions about their going the rest of the year.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (2-1) @ Ohio (2-1)
Could go either way, as these are two teams that have been solidly above-average if not especially great. Ohio has homefield, but Wyoming's looked a bit more impressive, especially with the win against Virginia on their resume.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#7 South Carolina (3-0) @ #1 LSU (3-0)
South Carolina's my #2 ranked team in the SEC right now, and with Florida still being somewhat of a wild card, is probably no worse than third. The Gamecocks have a legendary offensive mind at head coach, and a veteran defense that's one of the more talented in the country. LSU could still beat them 35-0.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
#5 Penn State (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2)
Despite Michigan's woes, this still looks like the biggest road game on Penn State's schedule. Henne's still a question mark for UM, and whether or not he plays may be the difference, as the stout Penn State defense may wreak some havoc on the suddenly suspect Michigan offensive line. Really, for two teams with such distant rankings (or lack thereof), this could go either way; Penn State is by no means a juggernaut, and Michigan has the defensive talent to either shut down the running game, exploit PSU QB Anthony Morelli's mistakes, or do both. But, well, banking on Michigan's potential has burned pretty much everyone, so I'll call for Mike Hart to be impressive as usual, and, if not quite in Michigan-Oregon fashion, another disappointing loss for the Wolverines.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern (2-1) @ #6 Ohio State (3-0)
NW's a fine team, despite losing to Duke. Still, that OSU defense would be frightening if LSU wasn't setting such a high standard, and they should be able to shut the Wildcats down easy.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Memphis (1-1) @ Central Florida (1-1)
Memphis is a wild card, outplaying Ole Miss in a loss and then beating I-AA Jacksonville State. Still, UCF's been too impressive not to pick at home, beating NC State and putting a scare into Texas.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
North Dakota State @ Central Michigan (1-2)
CMU's a good enough team to not get caught. Yep.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (1-2) @ Colorado (1-2)
Miami was the latest victim of Cincinnati's Turnover-Related Path Of Rage, but is the solid level of MAC team that can put a scare into lower-tier BCS schools. And Colorado probably fits in that. Still, the Buffaloes are a level above, say, Minnesota, who Miami took to OT, and CU has enough talent where they should win this comfortably at home.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Howard @ Eastern Michigan (1-2)
Just repeat the CMU blurb above, although Eastern's a worse team than Central.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 3
Maryland (2-1) @ Wake Forest (1-2)
Two more teams in the glut of the ACC upper-tier. Maryland's probably looked better, but against weaker competition, and Wake was the better team last year, even if both were lucky. Wake's at home, and as I've said many times, they look like a team that's going to a win a few games they shouldn't, so what the hell, I'll choose them in a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (3-0) @ Notre Dame (0-3)
This screams "upset", but I can't even visualize Notre Dame winning. Michigan State has a very good running back in Jehuu Caulcrick, and that one-man show should put this game out of reach for the Irish alone. Notre Dame could win on turnovers and field position, which given Michigan State's history isn't out of the question, but, really, I can't see it.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 3
Texas Tech (3-0) @ Oklahoma State (1-2)
OK State's horribly disappointing, but could actually win a shootout here. Still, TTU's offense has been so prolific, and OK State's defense has been so horrible, that the Red Raiders should win easy. Then again, I thought Louisville-Kentucky would play out much the same way.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
Colorado State (0-2) @ Houston (1-1)
CSU was very close against Colorado and Cal, so they're better than that winless record. Houston had an excellent performance in a loss to Oregon, but was less than dominant in beating Tulane, so the Cougars offense seems somewhat shaky and erratic with the graduation of Kevin Kolb. CSU's showed they can score easily with the veteran duo of QB Caleb Hanie and RB Kyle Bell, so I'll pick the Rams to win what could wind up being a pretty fun little game.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Northern Illinois (0-3) @ Idaho (1-2)
NIU's been shaky enough where this game is almost a pick 'em, especially since the Vandals are the team here that actually beat their I-AA opponent. I'll give NIU the edge as I hold onto the last scraps of hope that the Huskies' talent will result in something.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Arizona (1-2) @ #23 California (3-0)
Arizona's offshoot of the Texas Tech offense seems to be taking, and Cal has an extremely suspect pass defense, AND this is probably the toughest defense Cal has faced yet. HMMMMM. The warning lights are going off for the upset alert in my gut, but I'll refrain from pulling the trigger on an Arizona win since they're a Mike Stoops-coached team who doesn't win games like this and all.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 1
Kentucky (3-0) @ Arkansas (1-1)
Wait, what? Kentucky's actually ranked? That wasn't, like, from the Onion or something? UK's one chance to prevent Darren McFadden from having a monster game will be if the Wildcats break his leg like they did Michael Bush's last year. Of course, this will only result in Felix Jones having a monster game en route to an Arkansas win, but hey, at least Kentucky can look back on their top-25 worthy wins against Louisville and...Kent State?
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 4
Baylor (2-1) @ Buffalo (1-2)
Baylor's wins have been against I-AA Texas State and Rice, who may be the worst team in I-A, so it's hard to tell where the Bears stand. Buffalo beat Temple like a dead hooker in Grand Theft Auto, so the Bulls at least seem to be a much improved team. I'll give Baylor the edge just out of having Big 12-level talent, but a surprise win by Buffalo here wouldn't be much of a surprise.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Portland State @ San Diego State (0-2)
Portland State's an excellent I-AA team, so this'll be the closest I come to picking a I-AA outside of that one game last year where I got really pissed at some team and actually picked the I-AA.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Rice (0-3) @ #8 Texas (3-0)
UT's been somewhat disappointing, but as mentioned above, Rice is probably the worst team in I-A. Splat.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
Arkansas State (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-2)
Troy-OK State showed something like this could happen, and while ASU QB Corey Leonard is more than capable of exploiting a suspect Tennessee secondary, the talent gap is big enough where the Vols should win this solidly.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 3
New Mexico State (2-1) @ Auburn (1-2)
NMSU's high-powered offense has been somewhat disappointing this year, so Auburn should be able to shut things down and get a much-needed win.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Connecticut (3-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-1)
Finally seeing my beloved Huskies on television made me see that, well, this is the same old frustrating UConn team. Almost losing to Temple didn't help. That said, the same old frustrating UConn team beat Pitt in Hartford last year, and the Panthers were a much better team last season, and one that actually had a QB. The exasperating this is, that with this game, Syracuse, and two disappointing teams left out-of-conference in Virginia and Akron, UConn actually has a shot at not only being bowl eligible, but winning 7 games. God. And, as for who I'm choosing, this is essentially a pick 'em, so I'll go with last year's history, a lack of faith in Dave Wannstedt, and, frankly, a slight bit of personal bias.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (2-1) @ North Texas (0-2)
UNT is a team that can put up an insane amount of yardage, but FAU is coming off a big win against Minnesota. Really, FAU's a more complete team all-around, and UNT reminds me of NMSU last year: a lot of yardage, a lot of losses. Sun Belt parity warning applies, though.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Florida International (0-3) @ Kansas (3-0)
Kansas has been a buzzsaw, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 4
Iowa State (1-2) @ Toledo (0-3)
Toledo's been quite disappointing, especially in getting shut down by the aforementioned buzzsaw that is Kansas, but I don't think ISU's "death via field goal" offense is going to do well for more than one game.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Troy (1-2) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-3)
Troy's one of the top-tier Sun Belt teams. Whatever that's worth. I'm not exactly sure. Still, they're better.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Gardner-Webb @ Mississippi State (2-1)
MSU's a perfectly fine team, they should win here, move on folks, nothing to see here.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 4
Central Connecticut State @ Western Michigan (0-3)
CCSU had a running back drafted in the last draft. Yep. Isn't that fun for them.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
Marshall (0-3) @ Cincinnati (3-0)
Cincinnati's a bit overrated, since turnovers have made their wins look more impressive than they were, but the Bearcats should beat a scuffling Marshall team easy.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#15 Georgia (2-1) @ #10 Alabama (3-0)
Two outstandingly even teams, winning on defense and running with perfectly capable passing games. There's no real clear-cut edge here, as Georgia has the one loss, but the Bulldogs' passing game has been much more consistent. Hell, I'll actually give UGA the edge thanks to consistency, and really, just to spit in the face of the media's conventional wisdom, which is a surprisingly effective strategy.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Washington State (2-1) @ #4 USC (2-0)
USC's a thoroughly vulnerable team, but Wazzou is essentially an inferior version of the all-offense no-defense team that USC smashed last week in Nebraska.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Iowa (2-1) @ #11 Wisconsin (3-0)
Meh. Iowa's still a slightly above-average team despite the loss to Iowa State, but that loss makes it hard to have any faith in the Hawkeyes here. Still, Wisconsin's vulnerable, and Iowa still seems to have the defense where they can keep it close enough to win. But it's not like Iowa is any kind of offensive juggernaut, so I expect an ugly defensive game that Wisconsin wins by a touchdown or two.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
Sacramento State @ New Mexico (2-1)
UNM's a perfectly fine team that should win this without a problem. Yep.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 4
San Jose State (0-3) @ Utah State (0-3)
USU's actually been the more impressive team so far, as it seems like SJSU has regressed to their pre-2006 form. I'll call for the upset because really, why the hell not, and the Aggies have hung close with Wyoming and UNLV.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 1
Southeastern Louisiana @ Tulane (0-2)
Tulane's the type of lower-tier team that's vulnerable to upsets by I-AAs, but SELA's been pretty unimpressive in their games against I-A teams. Plus Tulane didn't look too awful against Houston, and Green Wave RB Matt Forte is good, so Tulane should hang on.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 3
8:30 PM
SMU (1-2) @ TCU (1-2)
TCU's been disappointing, but expectations were a bit high for the Horned Frogs in the preseason. They're a very good team, but not dominant in the MWC or anything. SMU, meanwhile, has disappointed just as much, if not more, looking pretty bad against Arkansas State and giving up a boatload of passing yards in a win against North Texas. So, essentially, TCU, while they may just be "above-average" instead of "top-25", should be able to shut down SMU and win this easy.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
Purdue (3-0) @ Minnesota (1-2)
Minnesota's secondary somehow gives up passing yards when the other team runs the ball, so this will be really fun and get really ugly really fast. This could wind up looking like what that Hawaii opening game would've if Colt Brennan had played the whole thing.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 5
9:05 PM
Texas Southern @ UTEP (1-2)
Another I-AA @ decent mid-major team that should easily beat a I-AA team game. Yawn.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#12 Oregon (3-0) @ Stanford (1-1)
Stanford has something there, and Jim Harbaugh should be able to coach the Cardinal up for an upset here or there, but here? No.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (2-1) @ #18 Arizona State (3-0)
Still remaining skeptical of Oregon State's QB play - it's been either low completion percentages or high amounts of interceptions against their I-A opponents, and I'll believe things are better when I see it. That, plus ASU being a juggernaut at home make this a pretty easy pick for the Sun Devils.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
Utah (1-2) @ UNLV (1-2)
I had left Utah for dead, but there's apparently something there, as the Utes smashed UCLA and good. UNLV doesn't look too ready to cash in on their potential, so Utah it is.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (2-1) @ UCLA (2-1)
Washington QB Jake Locker's legit, and UCLA showed their imploding tendencies, so who knows how this one's gonna go. Essentially a pick 'em, so I'm gonna go with my occasional strategy of picking against the conventional wisdom that an upset will happen, since conventional wisdom is often wrong. Woo.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Charleston Southern @ #21 Hawaii (3-0)
Colt Brennan may miss this, won't matter towards the result of the game. Should be fun.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
Week 4 Preview: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee State (0-3)
MTSU's still somewhat of a question mark, as the offense looked horrible against FAU, excellent against Louisville, and obviously got shut down by LSU, so this really could go either way. WKU will be a Sun Belt team next year, and essentially is now, so the usual warnings about Sun Belt parity apply here.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
7:30 PM
#13 Texas A&M (3-0) @ Miami (2-1)
An intriguing game, as Miami's top-notch run defense makes this a bad matchup for A&M. If TAMU QB Stephen McGee had shown a more balanced attack like last season, that'd be one thing, but both he and the entire Aggie offense have been more run-based this season. The Miami running game is also good enough to score enough to win, but I'll still give the edge to A&M, as I still think the Canes QB will make a mistake or two that costs them the game.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
#2 Oklahoma (3-0) @ Tulsa (2-0)
Easily the best offense OU has faced yet, but I'm not sure it's going to matter. Tulsa could surprise with the amount of points they put up, but I don't really expect the Tulsa defense to be able to do much. This may not be a blowout, but I don't see anything else happening other than a convincing OU victory.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee State (0-3)
MTSU's still somewhat of a question mark, as the offense looked horrible against FAU, excellent against Louisville, and obviously got shut down by LSU, so this really could go either way. WKU will be a Sun Belt team next year, and essentially is now, so the usual warnings about Sun Belt parity apply here.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
7:30 PM
#13 Texas A&M (3-0) @ Miami (2-1)
An intriguing game, as Miami's top-notch run defense makes this a bad matchup for A&M. If TAMU QB Stephen McGee had shown a more balanced attack like last season, that'd be one thing, but both he and the entire Aggie offense have been more run-based this season. The Miami running game is also good enough to score enough to win, but I'll still give the edge to A&M, as I still think the Canes QB will make a mistake or two that costs them the game.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
#2 Oklahoma (3-0) @ Tulsa (2-0)
Easily the best offense OU has faced yet, but I'm not sure it's going to matter. Tulsa could surprise with the amount of points they put up, but I don't really expect the Tulsa defense to be able to do much. This may not be a blowout, but I don't see anything else happening other than a convincing OU victory.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4
Sunday, September 16, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 3
#1 LSU (3-0, #1)
#2 Oklahoma (3-0, #3)
#3 West Virginia (3-0, #2)
#4 USC (2-0, #4)
#5 Penn State (3-0, #8)
#6 Ohio State (3-0, #9)
#7 South Carolina (3-0, #7)
#8 Texas (3-0, #5)
#9 Florida (3-0, #13)
#10 Alabama (3-0, #11)
#11 Wisconsin (3-0, #10)
#12 Oregon (3-0, #14)
#13 Texas A&M (3-0, #12)
#14 Louisville (2-1, #6)
#15 Georgia (2-1, #15)
#16 Virginia Tech (2-1, #16)
#17 Missouri (3-0, #17)
#18 Arizona State (3-0, #18)
#19 South Florida (2-0, #19)
#20 Clemson (3-0, #21)
#21 Hawaii (3-0, #22)
#22 Rutgers (3-0, #23)
#23 California (3-0, #24)
#24 Boston College (3-0, --)
#25 Nebraska (2-1, #20)
NOTES!
Still not buying USC too much. The top 4 are pretty much head and shoulders the best teams in the country, but when I look at WVU, I wonder how anyone's gonna stop that offense over four quarters, where I don't get that feeling yet with the Trojans.
Texas gets bumped down a bit for just playing pretty badly.
Lots of inertia down the line, since teams mostly just did what was expected.
I was just a bit off on BC in the preseason.
#2 Oklahoma (3-0, #3)
#3 West Virginia (3-0, #2)
#4 USC (2-0, #4)
#5 Penn State (3-0, #8)
#6 Ohio State (3-0, #9)
#7 South Carolina (3-0, #7)
#8 Texas (3-0, #5)
#9 Florida (3-0, #13)
#10 Alabama (3-0, #11)
#11 Wisconsin (3-0, #10)
#12 Oregon (3-0, #14)
#13 Texas A&M (3-0, #12)
#14 Louisville (2-1, #6)
#15 Georgia (2-1, #15)
#16 Virginia Tech (2-1, #16)
#17 Missouri (3-0, #17)
#18 Arizona State (3-0, #18)
#19 South Florida (2-0, #19)
#20 Clemson (3-0, #21)
#21 Hawaii (3-0, #22)
#22 Rutgers (3-0, #23)
#23 California (3-0, #24)
#24 Boston College (3-0, --)
#25 Nebraska (2-1, #20)
NOTES!
Still not buying USC too much. The top 4 are pretty much head and shoulders the best teams in the country, but when I look at WVU, I wonder how anyone's gonna stop that offense over four quarters, where I don't get that feeling yet with the Trojans.
Texas gets bumped down a bit for just playing pretty badly.
Lots of inertia down the line, since teams mostly just did what was expected.
I was just a bit off on BC in the preseason.
Week 3 Recap
#1 LSU 44, Middle Tennessee State 0
That MTSU offense that looked so dynamic against Louisville? Held to 89 yards. That LSU defense is just fucking frightening. Nightmare fuel.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Middle Tennessee State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#2 West Virginia 31, Maryland 14
Maryland kept this very close early, but as I figured, WVU turned on the jets and put the turtles away in the second half. Pat White had probably his worst game passing, but still completed 61.5% for 95 yards. Steve Slaton (26 carries, 137 yards, 3 TD) is still very good, but Noel Devine looked pretty amazing, and had 136 yards on only 5 touches. Yes, he had 27.2 yards per carry. Maryland's a fine team, and is one of the 10 or so teams to have a shot at winning the ACC, which is beginning to look like the MAC's big brother.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Maryland: STOCK NEUTRAL
#3 Oklahoma 54, Utah State 3
The kind of bad, but mostly insignificant news: QB Sam Bradford finally through an INT, albeit accompanying 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. The obscenely great news: RB DeMarco Murray had 100 yards on 4 carries. Yes, 4 carries. Yes, 100 yards. OU still frightens me.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#4 USC 49, #20 Nebraska 31
Hm. About even yardagewise, even though USC dominated the middle of the game. John David Booty was efficient, going 19/30 for 2 TD, but only 144 yards; he could afford it, as a cavalcade of running backs were productive for the Trojans, led by Stafon Johnson's 144 yards and 1 TD. Sam Keller was fine - he completed 66% and had 388 yards, but only a 2/2 ratio; the Husker running game didn't do much of anything, though. A solid win, even if I don't see how they can still be rated over LSU - this was convincing, but nowhere near as frightening and dominant as what LSU did to Virginia Tech. Still, USC pretty much had the level of game they should've against Idaho, and Nebraska remains what they are - pretty good, not that great.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nebraska: STOCK NEUTRAL
#5 Texas 35, Central Florida 32
Huh. I know UCF was breaking in their new stadium and all, but Texas really needs to get their shit together and fast. The statistics are mixed: Colt McCoy completed 68% and had 259 yards, but only a 1/1 ratio. RB Jamaal Charles ran for 146 yards and a TD on 6.6 per carry, but fumbled it away twice. UCF mostly rode RB Kevin Smith, who had 27 carries for 149 yards. Knights QB Kyle Israel was less impressive, completing only 35% and fumbling it away twice, wind up with a 2/3 TD/turnover ratio via land and air combined. I'll keep Texas steady, barely, and bump UCF up to top C-USA contender status.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Kentucky 40, #6 Louisville 34
SHOOTOUT! Extremely even, with the one deciding factor pretty much being that Brian Brohm had a pick, Andre Woodson did not. Both QBs even had 65% completion percentages, and the teams were within 12 yards of each other. Frankly, I'd still take Louisville's offense, but whatever. The Cardinals now complete their slip into the "all offense, no defense" realm, while Kentucky needs to be taken seriously.
Kentucky: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
#7 South Carolina 38, South Carolina State 3
Up next on SC's path to state supremacy: Charleston Southern.
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#8 Penn State 45, Buffalo 24
About even yardage-wise, but PSU was so efficient that they shouldn't really be docked. RB Rodney Kinlaw ran for 130 and a TD on 25 carries, and Austin Scott added 53 and a TD on 9 carries, but the real positive sign is QB Anthony Morelli, who rebounded to throw for 209 and 4 TD on 74% passing. There was good news for Buffalo, though, as their QB, Drew Willy, completed 70% of his 40 passes, though he only had a 1/1 TD/INT ratio. PSU still looks like the Big Ten favorite.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Buffalo: STOCK NEUTRAL
#9 Ohio State 33, Washington 14
Washington QB Jake Locker did about as well as you could expect for having his third start against such a stout defense; while his 16/33, 153, 1/3 line wasn't any great shakes, he also scrambled for 103 yards on the ground and generally looked more composed than, say, Jimmy Clausen. OSU just slowly put this one away, though, capitalizing on Locker's mistakes and getting good games from QB Todd Boeckman (56%, 220, 2 TD) and RB Chris Wells (24 car, 134 yards, TD). Washington's obviously much improved, and Locker's gonna be a good one - I'll bump them up a tad from "Oregon State-level" to being capable of being able to beat a UCLA or even Cal. Ohio State remains very good.
Ohio State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK UP
#10 Wisconsin 45, The Citadel 31
Not much to say, just putting this here since I do have Wisconsin in my top 25. It was closer than expected, though. Citadel QB Duran Lawson had a much better day than expected, going 23 of 35 for 254 and a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. It's pretty unclear if this was a fluke or a trend, so I'll just give the Badgers a mulligan.
Wisconsin: STOCK NEUTRAL
#11 Alabama 41, Arkansas 38
The Tide offense finally showed some balance, as QB John Parker Wilson completed only 53%, but was pretty productive, winding up with 328 yards and a 4/2 ratio. As for Arkansas, Casey Dick had a Ryan Mallett-esque 3 TDs, but 47% passing, and well, it must be said, holy shit that running game. Darren McFadden had 199 and 2 TDs, and Felix Jones added 100 yards of his own. I earned some more respect for Arkansas after coming back like they did (Alabama started out up 21-0), but my perception didn't really change regarding either team. McFadden and Jones alone make the Hogs a top-35 or so team, and Alabama's still the looming SEC darkhorse. Well, besides South Carolina. Can you be a #2 darkhorse? If so, they're that.
Alabama: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
#12 Texas A&M 54, Louisiana-Monroe 14
A much-needed decisive shitkicking.
Texas A&M: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK NEUTRAL
#13 Florida 59, Tennessee 20
Well, firstly, Tennessee is obviously in the second tier of the SEC with the Arkansases and...Arkansases of the world, so not much has changed re: my perception on that end. As for Florida, this took some steps towards validating themselves to me as a top-ten level team, even if I'm still not sure they belong all the way at #5. Tim Tebow ran for 62 and 2 scores, and mostly exploited the questionable Tennessee secondary, completing 74% for 299 yards, 2 TD, and his one major miscue in an INT that was returned by frosh CB Eric Berry. This was obviously Florida's biggest win yet, and again validates them to some extent, but I'll still remain cautious of being as bullish as the polls are.
Florida: STOCK UP
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL
#14 Oregon 52, Fresno State 21
Not all that close, as Oregon was at the top of their game. The Ducks were a two-headed monster, with QB Dennis Dixon completing 67% for 153 and 2 TD, rushing for 55 and a score, and RB Jonathan Stewart going for an obscene 165 and 2 TD for 17 carries. Oregon is, in fact, a very good team.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Fresno State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#15 Georgia 45, Western Carolina 16
Yeeeeep.
Georgia: STOCK NEUTRAL
#16 Virginia Tech 28, Ohio 7
VT somehow put up 467 yards, but everything adds up (obviously); new QB Tyrod Taylor put up an unproductive 282 yards on 55% passing, and RBs Branden Ore (85, TD) and Kenny Lewis (62, 2 TD) had productive if not huge nights. But the big story was the VT defense, which finally lived up to its reputation by holding Ohio to only 109 yards. I'll refrain from excessive optimism until VT proves itself against a better offense, but this is a good sign.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Ohio: STOCK NEUTRAL
#17 Missouri 52, Western Michigan 24
Just wanted to make a note that I'm finally downgrading WMU, whose supposedly elite secondary hasn't looked too good at all. They may do well in the MAC, and Missouri does have a top-flight QB, but still. Jeez guys.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
Western Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#18 Arizona State 34, San Diego State 13
SDSU looked good here, so I'll give them some credit and bump them up. Arizona State is, in fact, solidly better than then. Went about as expected. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK NEUTRAL
San Diego State: STOCK UP
#21 Clemson 38, Furman 10
Similar to the PSU game, Clemson was actually outgained slightly here, but had too many positive signs to really count it against them. Cullen Harper had a pretty excellent 84% completion percentage for 239 and 2 touchdowns. So good for him. Yep.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL
#22 Hawaii 49, UNLV 14
Brennan: 26/32, 302 yards, 2 TD, BUT also 3 rushing touchdowns. That's what they do, yep.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL
#23 Rutgers 59, Norfolk State 0
Way to go, guys.
Rutgers: STOCK NEUTRAL
#24 California 42, Louisiana Tech 12
Awwww. Cal rushing for almost as many yards as they passed for makes me feel kind of empty inside, in this time of always being on the edge of my seat, anticipating someone throwing for 500 against that Bulldogs secondary.
California: NEUTRAL
Boston College 24, #25 Georgia Tech 10
Okay, I buy Boston College, and GT was a tad exposed. GT was mediocre, as QB Taylor Bennett barely completed half his passes, and RB Tashard Choice didn't do much of anything, even if the offense wasn't completely stopped. Meanwhile, BC's Matt Ryan was unstoppable juggernaut of passing, going for 434 and a score on 68% passing, but letting RB LV Whitworth run 2 touchdowns in. BC's now one of the clear favorites in that parity-filled ACC.
Boston College: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Air Force 20, TCU 17 (OT)
Huh, how about that. I figured, once I saw the score, that AFA's "we're converting to a more pass-based offense" stuff was a hoax and that they ran it down TCU's throat until they died. But, no the Falcons actually passed for more yardage than they ran. TCU QB Andy Dalton was fine, going 29/45 for 320 and a 2/2 ratio, so this doesn't really lower my perception of the Horned Frogs. They're still probably the best team in the MWC, though obviously not dominant, and if anything, this establishes Air Force as a team that could be bowl-eligible and more.
Air Force: STOCK UP
TCU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Indiana 41, Akron 24
IU QB Kellen Lewis came remarkably close to winning the Kinsmon Lancaster award for outgaining the entire opposing offense, gaining 334 yards to Akron's 373. And Lewis is really the only story here, as Akron put in the average but not great performance you'd expect. Anyway, again, Lewis's line: 19/24, 134, 3/1 ratio passing, 19 carries for 200 and 2 TD rushing. Lewis is maturing quite well, and the team's looked good under Bill Lynch; bowl-eligibility looks more and more like a possibility, and I'm bullish on the Hoosiers.
Indiana: STOCK UP
Akron: STOCK NEUTRAL
Wake Forest 24, Army 10
Two of Wake's TD came on a punt return and INT return, as both offenses were anemic, like the field was pumped with noxious gas or something. Brett Hodges went 9/12 for 49 whole yards, and that was the winning quarterback. About sums it up. I'll give Wake a mulligan for the time being, just based on them looking good in the games I saw, but Army? Awful.
Wake Forest: STOCK NEUTRAL
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi State 19, Auburn 14
Not that surprised, although I'm somewhat shocked MSU did it with as impotent a passing game as they had, as three QBs combined for 5/18 passing and just 42 yards. Still, Auburn's Brandon Cox pretty much gave the game away anyway, going only 4 for 10 for 41 yards and 2 picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The running game was mostly a wash, so, yeah, Auburn played about even with Mississippi State, just with more mistakes. I'll keep MSU neutral because oh god, that passing game is horrible, but knock Auburn down a notch, because well, oh god, that passing game is horrible. And given the history of teams Mississippi State has upset under Sylvester Croom, Tommy Tuberville better watch his job.
Mississippi State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 55, Brigham Young 47
SHOOOOOTOOOOOOUUUUUT! BYU's Max Hall: 34/58, 527, 4/2 ratio. Tulsa's Paul Smith: 21/35, 454, 5/1 ratio. I'm not sure if this was Tulsa's intended offensive gameplan, but whatever it is, it works, so I'll bump Tulsa up a bit to being legit. As for BYU, well, shootouts are what they do.
Tulsa: STOCK UP
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida State 16, Colorado 6
YAWWWWWN. Just a boring shitfest. FSU only had 218 yards, and should be ashamed. At least CU's a young team I don't know what the 'Noles excuse is.
Florida State: STOCK DOWN
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL
Connecticut 22, Temple 17
Temple got robbed. They called a double reverse WR pass to the QB on their last play of the game, and it was deflected and caught, but the receiver was ruled out of bounds. The replay clearly showed the receiver eked a foot into the back of the end zone, but the call stood, and Connecticut knelt out the clock for the win. I'm shocked Temple racked up 332 yards, since they were mostly ineffective outside of the final drive and a 59-yard TD pass near the end of the second quarter, but Connecticut's defense was, in fact, uninspiring. The run defense was a concern for the Huskies last year, and that trend continued with Owls RB Jason Harper gaining 5.1 yards per carry. Still, the offensive line was, as always, the biggest glaring weakness for UConn. QB Tyler Lorenzen went 19/29 for 223, but was sacked 8 times and was running for his life for a majority of the time. And this was the Temple defense. On the plus side, backup RB Andre Dixon was a revelation, going for 129 on 21 carries, and usual starter Donald Brown did the dirty work in the red zone, getting 2 scores, but past that...eh. Lorenzen seems to a better QB than last year's starter, and this year's WR, DJ Hernandez, but most of the teams in the Big East should put him on his back enough that nobody will really be able to tell. I was optimistic in the preseason, but that I've been able to see UConn (they were, seriously, pre-empted for billiards last week) live and in color, this looks like a rehash of last year's 4-8 team. The drama awaits as to if we can beat Syracuse, and who we replace Randy Edsall with in the offseason. Oh, and for Temple, they're well on their way to playing at, say, a Ball State level next year.
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
Temple: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke 20, Northwestern 14
Yaaaaay! Duke got outgained by 200 yards, but were the more efficient team. Devils QB Thaddeus Lewis was especially impressive, completing 83% of his passes for 248 and 3 TD. I said in the preseason Duke would be competitive, and while they tried to prove me wrong in their first two games, this renews my faith. Northwestern is...mercurial.
Duke: STOCK UP
Northwestern: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida Atlantic 42, Minnesota 39
CB Dominic Jones being kicked off the team by Minnesota may have been the most crucial offseason loss for anyone. Minnesota's secondary is now wonderfully, almost legendarily awful, as this was FAU QB Rusty Smith's line: 27/44, 467 yards, 5 TD. Minnesota may go 0-8 against the Big Ten just out of sheer inability to stop someone, and I'll pump FAU up from "solid Sun Belt #3" to the Troy/ULM level of conference title favorites.
Florida Atlantic: STOCK UP
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN
Houston 34, Tulane 10
Pretty much unnotable, except Houston RB Anthony Alridge finally had a YPC average nowhere near 10, averaging only 4.7 per carry against the Green Wave. Awww.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL
Illinois 41, Syracuse 20
Syracuse QB Andrew Robinson completed 65% of his passes, and that's the end of the good news for an Orange team that remains absolutely horrible. The Illini's Juice Williams only attempted 18 passes, and completed 13 for 97 and a score, but mostly allowed the Illinois running game to put on a show. Rashard Mendenhall was the lead back, going for 150 and 3 scores on 16 carries, and two other backs broke the 90-yard barrier. Illinois, a good team. Syracuse, an awful one.
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Syracuse: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa State 15, Iowa 13
RIVALRY GAMES! ISU won in perhaps the most uninspiring way possible, on five field goals. Uh...QB Bret Meyer was accurate (73%)? I'm trying to think of good signs here. Iowa, you should be ashamed of yourself. Both teams were bad, Iowa slightly worse, this is more a huge point of concern for the Hawkeyes than any sort of turning the corner for ISU under Gene Chizik.
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa: STOCK DOWN
Kansas 45, Toledo 13
Pretty much an annihilation. KU held the Toledo pass attack to only 77 yards, and put up 561 yards of delicious, cream-filled offense. Jayhawks QB Todd Reesing was the star here, going for 313 and 4 TD, even if he did only complete 46% of his passes. If that 46% wasn't so glaring, I'd pump KU up, but I'll remain a skeptic re: their legitness. Kansas has a cupcake against FIU next, but if they win at Kansas State, we probably have something, even if the Jayhawks look like a bowl eligible team.
Kansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Toledo: STOCK NEUTRAL
McNeese State 38, Louisiana-Lafayette 17
That ain't good.
Louisiana-Lafayette: STOCK DOWN
New Hampshire 48, Marshall 35
Huh, how about that. Just notable for a I-AA beating a I-A team; UNH is a I-AA power though, so things should still be rosy for Marshall, just a little harder to get bowl eligible.
Marshall: STOCK NEUTRAL
Michigan 38, Notre Dame 0
Both offenses were in fact horrible outside of Mike Hart (35 car, 187 yds, 2 TD), as Wolverines QB Ryan Mallett somehow had 3 TDs without completing 50% of his passes. Michigan's defense looked good, I suppose, but that's more than likely due to the ineptitude of the Notre Dame offense. That Irish offensive line is absolutely horrible, giving up 8 sacks, but they did allow UND to have their best game running of the season, with 23 whole yards on the ground. I'm still retaining my skepticism of Michigan, because oh my word, Notre Dame is just...amazingly inept.
Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
New Mexico State 29, UTEP 24
FINALLY! NMSU QB Chase Holbrook: 36/48, 434 yards, 3/1 ratio. YAAAAAY!
New Mexico State: STOCK NEUTRAL
UTEP: STOCK NEUTRAL
Virginia 22, North Carolina 20
As close as the score. UVA QB Jameel Sewell didn't do much of anything, completing 65% for only 95 yards, but could afford to do so thanks to RB Cedric Peerman, who ran for 186 and a TD. UNC QB TJ Yates was essentially the entire offense for the Tar Heels, as he put up 333 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 66% passing, while the team only ran for 60 yards. Virginia continues to disappoint, so I'll knock them down a notch, and hell, UNC appears to have a viable QB, so that moves them up a bit as well. They can be competitive in the crushingly disappointing ACC.
Virginia: STOCK DOWN
North Carolina: STOCK UP
Troy 41, Oklahoma State 23
I'm not that shocked about the result, more the way it came about. OK State put up 432 total yards, but QB Zac Robinson (18/37, 191, 1/2 ratio) looked awful, and as the score obviously shows, that defense cannot stop anyone. The Cowboys are probably the most disappointing team in the country. As for Troy, I'm not really that sure what to make of them. QB Omar Haugabook had easily his best performance, completing 69% for 371 and a 1/1 ratio, but, again, the defense gave up 432 yards. It's hard to complain about what's obviously a huge win for the Trojans, but I'm still not all that sold on the defense; and if the defense is only average for the Sun Belt, I'm still not 100% sure Troy can have the offensive performance like this that'd be required to win. Still, a huge win's a huge win, so good for you, Troy.
Troy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oklahoma State: STOCK DOWN
Stanford 37, San Jose State 0
Huh. How about that. Stanford winning isn't a suprise, but SJSU was pretty pathetic here.
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL
San Jose State: STOCK DOWN
Utah 44, UCLA 6
UCLA was this week's team that lost a close game yardage-wise due to turnovers, in this case 3 Ben Olson picks and 2 fumbles. Still, Utah showed some signs of life that were sorely lacking in previous games; Darrell Mack ran for 108 and a TD on 19 carries, and QB Tommy Grady finally came through, throwing for 263 and 4 scores on 59% passing. I'll nudge Utah back up a bit because of that, and UCLA down a bit, since they were on the fringes of my top 25, and well, obviously aren't anymore.
Utah: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
That MTSU offense that looked so dynamic against Louisville? Held to 89 yards. That LSU defense is just fucking frightening. Nightmare fuel.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Middle Tennessee State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#2 West Virginia 31, Maryland 14
Maryland kept this very close early, but as I figured, WVU turned on the jets and put the turtles away in the second half. Pat White had probably his worst game passing, but still completed 61.5% for 95 yards. Steve Slaton (26 carries, 137 yards, 3 TD) is still very good, but Noel Devine looked pretty amazing, and had 136 yards on only 5 touches. Yes, he had 27.2 yards per carry. Maryland's a fine team, and is one of the 10 or so teams to have a shot at winning the ACC, which is beginning to look like the MAC's big brother.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Maryland: STOCK NEUTRAL
#3 Oklahoma 54, Utah State 3
The kind of bad, but mostly insignificant news: QB Sam Bradford finally through an INT, albeit accompanying 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. The obscenely great news: RB DeMarco Murray had 100 yards on 4 carries. Yes, 4 carries. Yes, 100 yards. OU still frightens me.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#4 USC 49, #20 Nebraska 31
Hm. About even yardagewise, even though USC dominated the middle of the game. John David Booty was efficient, going 19/30 for 2 TD, but only 144 yards; he could afford it, as a cavalcade of running backs were productive for the Trojans, led by Stafon Johnson's 144 yards and 1 TD. Sam Keller was fine - he completed 66% and had 388 yards, but only a 2/2 ratio; the Husker running game didn't do much of anything, though. A solid win, even if I don't see how they can still be rated over LSU - this was convincing, but nowhere near as frightening and dominant as what LSU did to Virginia Tech. Still, USC pretty much had the level of game they should've against Idaho, and Nebraska remains what they are - pretty good, not that great.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nebraska: STOCK NEUTRAL
#5 Texas 35, Central Florida 32
Huh. I know UCF was breaking in their new stadium and all, but Texas really needs to get their shit together and fast. The statistics are mixed: Colt McCoy completed 68% and had 259 yards, but only a 1/1 ratio. RB Jamaal Charles ran for 146 yards and a TD on 6.6 per carry, but fumbled it away twice. UCF mostly rode RB Kevin Smith, who had 27 carries for 149 yards. Knights QB Kyle Israel was less impressive, completing only 35% and fumbling it away twice, wind up with a 2/3 TD/turnover ratio via land and air combined. I'll keep Texas steady, barely, and bump UCF up to top C-USA contender status.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Kentucky 40, #6 Louisville 34
SHOOTOUT! Extremely even, with the one deciding factor pretty much being that Brian Brohm had a pick, Andre Woodson did not. Both QBs even had 65% completion percentages, and the teams were within 12 yards of each other. Frankly, I'd still take Louisville's offense, but whatever. The Cardinals now complete their slip into the "all offense, no defense" realm, while Kentucky needs to be taken seriously.
Kentucky: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
#7 South Carolina 38, South Carolina State 3
Up next on SC's path to state supremacy: Charleston Southern.
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
#8 Penn State 45, Buffalo 24
About even yardage-wise, but PSU was so efficient that they shouldn't really be docked. RB Rodney Kinlaw ran for 130 and a TD on 25 carries, and Austin Scott added 53 and a TD on 9 carries, but the real positive sign is QB Anthony Morelli, who rebounded to throw for 209 and 4 TD on 74% passing. There was good news for Buffalo, though, as their QB, Drew Willy, completed 70% of his 40 passes, though he only had a 1/1 TD/INT ratio. PSU still looks like the Big Ten favorite.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Buffalo: STOCK NEUTRAL
#9 Ohio State 33, Washington 14
Washington QB Jake Locker did about as well as you could expect for having his third start against such a stout defense; while his 16/33, 153, 1/3 line wasn't any great shakes, he also scrambled for 103 yards on the ground and generally looked more composed than, say, Jimmy Clausen. OSU just slowly put this one away, though, capitalizing on Locker's mistakes and getting good games from QB Todd Boeckman (56%, 220, 2 TD) and RB Chris Wells (24 car, 134 yards, TD). Washington's obviously much improved, and Locker's gonna be a good one - I'll bump them up a tad from "Oregon State-level" to being capable of being able to beat a UCLA or even Cal. Ohio State remains very good.
Ohio State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK UP
#10 Wisconsin 45, The Citadel 31
Not much to say, just putting this here since I do have Wisconsin in my top 25. It was closer than expected, though. Citadel QB Duran Lawson had a much better day than expected, going 23 of 35 for 254 and a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. It's pretty unclear if this was a fluke or a trend, so I'll just give the Badgers a mulligan.
Wisconsin: STOCK NEUTRAL
#11 Alabama 41, Arkansas 38
The Tide offense finally showed some balance, as QB John Parker Wilson completed only 53%, but was pretty productive, winding up with 328 yards and a 4/2 ratio. As for Arkansas, Casey Dick had a Ryan Mallett-esque 3 TDs, but 47% passing, and well, it must be said, holy shit that running game. Darren McFadden had 199 and 2 TDs, and Felix Jones added 100 yards of his own. I earned some more respect for Arkansas after coming back like they did (Alabama started out up 21-0), but my perception didn't really change regarding either team. McFadden and Jones alone make the Hogs a top-35 or so team, and Alabama's still the looming SEC darkhorse. Well, besides South Carolina. Can you be a #2 darkhorse? If so, they're that.
Alabama: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
#12 Texas A&M 54, Louisiana-Monroe 14
A much-needed decisive shitkicking.
Texas A&M: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK NEUTRAL
#13 Florida 59, Tennessee 20
Well, firstly, Tennessee is obviously in the second tier of the SEC with the Arkansases and...Arkansases of the world, so not much has changed re: my perception on that end. As for Florida, this took some steps towards validating themselves to me as a top-ten level team, even if I'm still not sure they belong all the way at #5. Tim Tebow ran for 62 and 2 scores, and mostly exploited the questionable Tennessee secondary, completing 74% for 299 yards, 2 TD, and his one major miscue in an INT that was returned by frosh CB Eric Berry. This was obviously Florida's biggest win yet, and again validates them to some extent, but I'll still remain cautious of being as bullish as the polls are.
Florida: STOCK UP
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL
#14 Oregon 52, Fresno State 21
Not all that close, as Oregon was at the top of their game. The Ducks were a two-headed monster, with QB Dennis Dixon completing 67% for 153 and 2 TD, rushing for 55 and a score, and RB Jonathan Stewart going for an obscene 165 and 2 TD for 17 carries. Oregon is, in fact, a very good team.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Fresno State: STOCK NEUTRAL
#15 Georgia 45, Western Carolina 16
Yeeeeep.
Georgia: STOCK NEUTRAL
#16 Virginia Tech 28, Ohio 7
VT somehow put up 467 yards, but everything adds up (obviously); new QB Tyrod Taylor put up an unproductive 282 yards on 55% passing, and RBs Branden Ore (85, TD) and Kenny Lewis (62, 2 TD) had productive if not huge nights. But the big story was the VT defense, which finally lived up to its reputation by holding Ohio to only 109 yards. I'll refrain from excessive optimism until VT proves itself against a better offense, but this is a good sign.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Ohio: STOCK NEUTRAL
#17 Missouri 52, Western Michigan 24
Just wanted to make a note that I'm finally downgrading WMU, whose supposedly elite secondary hasn't looked too good at all. They may do well in the MAC, and Missouri does have a top-flight QB, but still. Jeez guys.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
Western Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#18 Arizona State 34, San Diego State 13
SDSU looked good here, so I'll give them some credit and bump them up. Arizona State is, in fact, solidly better than then. Went about as expected. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK NEUTRAL
San Diego State: STOCK UP
#21 Clemson 38, Furman 10
Similar to the PSU game, Clemson was actually outgained slightly here, but had too many positive signs to really count it against them. Cullen Harper had a pretty excellent 84% completion percentage for 239 and 2 touchdowns. So good for him. Yep.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL
#22 Hawaii 49, UNLV 14
Brennan: 26/32, 302 yards, 2 TD, BUT also 3 rushing touchdowns. That's what they do, yep.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL
#23 Rutgers 59, Norfolk State 0
Way to go, guys.
Rutgers: STOCK NEUTRAL
#24 California 42, Louisiana Tech 12
Awwww. Cal rushing for almost as many yards as they passed for makes me feel kind of empty inside, in this time of always being on the edge of my seat, anticipating someone throwing for 500 against that Bulldogs secondary.
California: NEUTRAL
Boston College 24, #25 Georgia Tech 10
Okay, I buy Boston College, and GT was a tad exposed. GT was mediocre, as QB Taylor Bennett barely completed half his passes, and RB Tashard Choice didn't do much of anything, even if the offense wasn't completely stopped. Meanwhile, BC's Matt Ryan was unstoppable juggernaut of passing, going for 434 and a score on 68% passing, but letting RB LV Whitworth run 2 touchdowns in. BC's now one of the clear favorites in that parity-filled ACC.
Boston College: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Air Force 20, TCU 17 (OT)
Huh, how about that. I figured, once I saw the score, that AFA's "we're converting to a more pass-based offense" stuff was a hoax and that they ran it down TCU's throat until they died. But, no the Falcons actually passed for more yardage than they ran. TCU QB Andy Dalton was fine, going 29/45 for 320 and a 2/2 ratio, so this doesn't really lower my perception of the Horned Frogs. They're still probably the best team in the MWC, though obviously not dominant, and if anything, this establishes Air Force as a team that could be bowl-eligible and more.
Air Force: STOCK UP
TCU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Indiana 41, Akron 24
IU QB Kellen Lewis came remarkably close to winning the Kinsmon Lancaster award for outgaining the entire opposing offense, gaining 334 yards to Akron's 373. And Lewis is really the only story here, as Akron put in the average but not great performance you'd expect. Anyway, again, Lewis's line: 19/24, 134, 3/1 ratio passing, 19 carries for 200 and 2 TD rushing. Lewis is maturing quite well, and the team's looked good under Bill Lynch; bowl-eligibility looks more and more like a possibility, and I'm bullish on the Hoosiers.
Indiana: STOCK UP
Akron: STOCK NEUTRAL
Wake Forest 24, Army 10
Two of Wake's TD came on a punt return and INT return, as both offenses were anemic, like the field was pumped with noxious gas or something. Brett Hodges went 9/12 for 49 whole yards, and that was the winning quarterback. About sums it up. I'll give Wake a mulligan for the time being, just based on them looking good in the games I saw, but Army? Awful.
Wake Forest: STOCK NEUTRAL
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi State 19, Auburn 14
Not that surprised, although I'm somewhat shocked MSU did it with as impotent a passing game as they had, as three QBs combined for 5/18 passing and just 42 yards. Still, Auburn's Brandon Cox pretty much gave the game away anyway, going only 4 for 10 for 41 yards and 2 picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The running game was mostly a wash, so, yeah, Auburn played about even with Mississippi State, just with more mistakes. I'll keep MSU neutral because oh god, that passing game is horrible, but knock Auburn down a notch, because well, oh god, that passing game is horrible. And given the history of teams Mississippi State has upset under Sylvester Croom, Tommy Tuberville better watch his job.
Mississippi State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 55, Brigham Young 47
SHOOOOOTOOOOOOUUUUUT! BYU's Max Hall: 34/58, 527, 4/2 ratio. Tulsa's Paul Smith: 21/35, 454, 5/1 ratio. I'm not sure if this was Tulsa's intended offensive gameplan, but whatever it is, it works, so I'll bump Tulsa up a bit to being legit. As for BYU, well, shootouts are what they do.
Tulsa: STOCK UP
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida State 16, Colorado 6
YAWWWWWN. Just a boring shitfest. FSU only had 218 yards, and should be ashamed. At least CU's a young team I don't know what the 'Noles excuse is.
Florida State: STOCK DOWN
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL
Connecticut 22, Temple 17
Temple got robbed. They called a double reverse WR pass to the QB on their last play of the game, and it was deflected and caught, but the receiver was ruled out of bounds. The replay clearly showed the receiver eked a foot into the back of the end zone, but the call stood, and Connecticut knelt out the clock for the win. I'm shocked Temple racked up 332 yards, since they were mostly ineffective outside of the final drive and a 59-yard TD pass near the end of the second quarter, but Connecticut's defense was, in fact, uninspiring. The run defense was a concern for the Huskies last year, and that trend continued with Owls RB Jason Harper gaining 5.1 yards per carry. Still, the offensive line was, as always, the biggest glaring weakness for UConn. QB Tyler Lorenzen went 19/29 for 223, but was sacked 8 times and was running for his life for a majority of the time. And this was the Temple defense. On the plus side, backup RB Andre Dixon was a revelation, going for 129 on 21 carries, and usual starter Donald Brown did the dirty work in the red zone, getting 2 scores, but past that...eh. Lorenzen seems to a better QB than last year's starter, and this year's WR, DJ Hernandez, but most of the teams in the Big East should put him on his back enough that nobody will really be able to tell. I was optimistic in the preseason, but that I've been able to see UConn (they were, seriously, pre-empted for billiards last week) live and in color, this looks like a rehash of last year's 4-8 team. The drama awaits as to if we can beat Syracuse, and who we replace Randy Edsall with in the offseason. Oh, and for Temple, they're well on their way to playing at, say, a Ball State level next year.
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
Temple: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke 20, Northwestern 14
Yaaaaay! Duke got outgained by 200 yards, but were the more efficient team. Devils QB Thaddeus Lewis was especially impressive, completing 83% of his passes for 248 and 3 TD. I said in the preseason Duke would be competitive, and while they tried to prove me wrong in their first two games, this renews my faith. Northwestern is...mercurial.
Duke: STOCK UP
Northwestern: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida Atlantic 42, Minnesota 39
CB Dominic Jones being kicked off the team by Minnesota may have been the most crucial offseason loss for anyone. Minnesota's secondary is now wonderfully, almost legendarily awful, as this was FAU QB Rusty Smith's line: 27/44, 467 yards, 5 TD. Minnesota may go 0-8 against the Big Ten just out of sheer inability to stop someone, and I'll pump FAU up from "solid Sun Belt #3" to the Troy/ULM level of conference title favorites.
Florida Atlantic: STOCK UP
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN
Houston 34, Tulane 10
Pretty much unnotable, except Houston RB Anthony Alridge finally had a YPC average nowhere near 10, averaging only 4.7 per carry against the Green Wave. Awww.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL
Illinois 41, Syracuse 20
Syracuse QB Andrew Robinson completed 65% of his passes, and that's the end of the good news for an Orange team that remains absolutely horrible. The Illini's Juice Williams only attempted 18 passes, and completed 13 for 97 and a score, but mostly allowed the Illinois running game to put on a show. Rashard Mendenhall was the lead back, going for 150 and 3 scores on 16 carries, and two other backs broke the 90-yard barrier. Illinois, a good team. Syracuse, an awful one.
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Syracuse: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa State 15, Iowa 13
RIVALRY GAMES! ISU won in perhaps the most uninspiring way possible, on five field goals. Uh...QB Bret Meyer was accurate (73%)? I'm trying to think of good signs here. Iowa, you should be ashamed of yourself. Both teams were bad, Iowa slightly worse, this is more a huge point of concern for the Hawkeyes than any sort of turning the corner for ISU under Gene Chizik.
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa: STOCK DOWN
Kansas 45, Toledo 13
Pretty much an annihilation. KU held the Toledo pass attack to only 77 yards, and put up 561 yards of delicious, cream-filled offense. Jayhawks QB Todd Reesing was the star here, going for 313 and 4 TD, even if he did only complete 46% of his passes. If that 46% wasn't so glaring, I'd pump KU up, but I'll remain a skeptic re: their legitness. Kansas has a cupcake against FIU next, but if they win at Kansas State, we probably have something, even if the Jayhawks look like a bowl eligible team.
Kansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Toledo: STOCK NEUTRAL
McNeese State 38, Louisiana-Lafayette 17
That ain't good.
Louisiana-Lafayette: STOCK DOWN
New Hampshire 48, Marshall 35
Huh, how about that. Just notable for a I-AA beating a I-A team; UNH is a I-AA power though, so things should still be rosy for Marshall, just a little harder to get bowl eligible.
Marshall: STOCK NEUTRAL
Michigan 38, Notre Dame 0
Both offenses were in fact horrible outside of Mike Hart (35 car, 187 yds, 2 TD), as Wolverines QB Ryan Mallett somehow had 3 TDs without completing 50% of his passes. Michigan's defense looked good, I suppose, but that's more than likely due to the ineptitude of the Notre Dame offense. That Irish offensive line is absolutely horrible, giving up 8 sacks, but they did allow UND to have their best game running of the season, with 23 whole yards on the ground. I'm still retaining my skepticism of Michigan, because oh my word, Notre Dame is just...amazingly inept.
Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
New Mexico State 29, UTEP 24
FINALLY! NMSU QB Chase Holbrook: 36/48, 434 yards, 3/1 ratio. YAAAAAY!
New Mexico State: STOCK NEUTRAL
UTEP: STOCK NEUTRAL
Virginia 22, North Carolina 20
As close as the score. UVA QB Jameel Sewell didn't do much of anything, completing 65% for only 95 yards, but could afford to do so thanks to RB Cedric Peerman, who ran for 186 and a TD. UNC QB TJ Yates was essentially the entire offense for the Tar Heels, as he put up 333 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 66% passing, while the team only ran for 60 yards. Virginia continues to disappoint, so I'll knock them down a notch, and hell, UNC appears to have a viable QB, so that moves them up a bit as well. They can be competitive in the crushingly disappointing ACC.
Virginia: STOCK DOWN
North Carolina: STOCK UP
Troy 41, Oklahoma State 23
I'm not that shocked about the result, more the way it came about. OK State put up 432 total yards, but QB Zac Robinson (18/37, 191, 1/2 ratio) looked awful, and as the score obviously shows, that defense cannot stop anyone. The Cowboys are probably the most disappointing team in the country. As for Troy, I'm not really that sure what to make of them. QB Omar Haugabook had easily his best performance, completing 69% for 371 and a 1/1 ratio, but, again, the defense gave up 432 yards. It's hard to complain about what's obviously a huge win for the Trojans, but I'm still not all that sold on the defense; and if the defense is only average for the Sun Belt, I'm still not 100% sure Troy can have the offensive performance like this that'd be required to win. Still, a huge win's a huge win, so good for you, Troy.
Troy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oklahoma State: STOCK DOWN
Stanford 37, San Jose State 0
Huh. How about that. Stanford winning isn't a suprise, but SJSU was pretty pathetic here.
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL
San Jose State: STOCK DOWN
Utah 44, UCLA 6
UCLA was this week's team that lost a close game yardage-wise due to turnovers, in this case 3 Ben Olson picks and 2 fumbles. Still, Utah showed some signs of life that were sorely lacking in previous games; Darrell Mack ran for 108 and a TD on 19 carries, and QB Tommy Grady finally came through, throwing for 263 and 4 scores on 59% passing. I'll nudge Utah back up a bit because of that, and UCLA down a bit, since they were on the fringes of my top 25, and well, obviously aren't anymore.
Utah: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
Thursday, September 13, 2007
An Open Call
for sweet, delicious feedback. From YOU! Yes, you. I'm really just looking for any thoughts on the blog, anything I can improve, anything you like, any criticisms, complaints, insults, just...anything. Any sort of words. Via comment section, via email, via...anything. I WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU! As well as, you know, know that I actually have a readership. Thanks in advance.
Week 3 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
Buffalo (1-1) @ #8 Penn State (2-0)
You know, if Anthony Morelli struggles, I could see this being close for a quarter or two, as Buffalo is starting to look like a I-A team. Still, it's more close in the 3-0 variety than some sort of shootout, so the stout PSU defense should be able to hold the Bulls at bay enough where Penn State can put up a touchdown or two (at least) and win easy. That was probably horrible grammar, but I refuse to edit it.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence (out of 5): 4
The Citadel @ #10 Wisconsin (2-0)
Next.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
Akron (1-1) @ Indiana (2-0)
Indiana's been pretty impressive, especially in smashing Western Michigan, one of the better MAC teams. Akron, in contrast, is not one of the better MAC teams, and eked out a win against Army before putting on an absolutely pathetic performance against Ohio State. If Akron shows signs of life, it'll be a moral victory.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (1-1) @ Purdue (2-0)
Ehhhh. CMU has a shot if it develops into a shootout and things break right, but Purdue has too much firepower, and the Chippewas' crushing loss at Kansas still comes to mind. Purdue QB Curtis Painter is quietly having a great year so far, completing 66% of his passes for 592 and 10 TD, and he should continue that pace, at the very least.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (2-0) @ Miami of Ohio (1-1)
Cincinnati's probably slightly overrated after Oregon State turned it over so many times against them, and Miami is a MAC darkhorse, but the Bearcats are playing well enough that they should have no problem beating a MAC team.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 4
Temple (1-1) @ Connecticut (2-0)
You're killing me, Connecticut. UConn stomps teams like this easy, and Temple being annihilated at home by Buffalo suggests that the same will happen here. For those of us hoping to see how good the Huskies actually are, it'll be at least another week.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 5
Eastern Michigan (0-2) @ Northern Illinois (0-2)
A hard one to choose, since this could go either way. Preseason wisdom would say EMU has a chance, since they've improved from last year's horrible team, but NIU had enough talent to win easy, MAC parity aside. Still, while EMU's performed about as expected, NIU has been horrible so far this year, with no running game after the loss of Garrett Wolfe, and actually losing to I-AA Southern Illinois last week. I'll give NIU the benefit of the doubt at home, especially since, again, they have more talent, but based on performance and, again, the ever-present parity of the MAC, it could go either way.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
Illinois (1-1) @ Syracuse (0-2)
Ron Zook could managed to coach this one way, but I can never, in any circumstances, pick Syracuse. Illinois is a much better team, but Syracuse has to win ONE game, don't they? This is one of those weird games where I feel it could be an upset despite any rationality, but I won't pull the trigger and assume Wannstedt will be the guy to choke against the Orange.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Pittsburgh (2-0) @ Michigan State (2-0)
Speaking of! I would've picked Pitt easy before Bill Stull went down, but now it's fairly intriguing. MSU played the only opponent of note, holding off Bowling Green, but the other three games the teams have played have been against Grambling, UAB and Eastern Michigan. This essentially boils down to a pick 'em, and since MSU is at home, doesn't have Dave Wannstedt as a coach, and is Michigan State in September, I'll call for them to win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Virginia (1-1) @ North Carolina (1-1)
Crazier things have happened, but I'd like to think a veteran UVA team is better than East Carolina, even if I do like the ECU team. UNC has enough young talent and UVA's been lackluster enough that this could be a defining win for the Tar Heels this season, but I'll hold onto my last scraps of hope and call for Virginia to pull this one out. INERTIA!
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (1-1) @ Auburn (1-1)
Another very tempting upset, since Auburn's offense has been so lackluster, but I expect yet another ugly game from the Tigers, and this time one they should win. MSU's perfectly decent, but if Kansas State's offense struggled against the Auburn D, Mike Henig seems like a fairly safe bet to throw enough picks to keep the Bulldogs out of it.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Western Carolina @ #15 Georgia (1-1)
It really seems like Western Carolina gets smashed by an SEC team every week.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 5
Furman @ #21 Clemson (2-0)
Clemson should win this easy. Insight!
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 5
Minnesota (1-1) @ Florida Atlantic (1-1)
FAU's a good Sun Belt team, but this is the litmus test for if Minnesota's secondary can allow ANY team into the game. FAU may keep it close, but if Miami of Ohio couldn't beat the Gophers, I don't think the Owls can.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 2
1:30 PM
Ohio (2-0) @ #16 Virginia Tech (1-1)
It doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that Ohio someone pulls this one off, but come on now. ECU's much better than the Bobcats, and at the very least, the defense should roll. Maybe. Probably.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Iowa (2-0) @ Iowa State (0-2)
Iowa State is fucking terrible. I'll bump down my confidence in Iowa's win just because anything can happen in a rivalry game, but this is a Cyclones team that lost handily to Northern Iowa. That said, that probably only adds to the motivation for an ISU win, but if it's not now, it's probably never.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Western Michigan (2-0) @ #17 Missouri (2-0)
If this were the opener, I'd give WMU a shot due to their elite secondary, but after their performances against WVU and Indiana, that secondary doesn't look too elite. With this at Missouri, there's pretty much no reason to pick WMU, although Broncos QB Tim Hiller could make this a shootout against what is still a bad Missouri defense.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
3:00 PM
Texas Tech (2-0) @ Rice (0-2)
Rice is fucking terrible. Probably fucking terribler than Iowa State. Texas Tech has been humming right along, and Rice shows absolutely no ability to exploit the Raiders' defensive concerns, even with WR Jarett Dillard. TTU gets the "they could put up 90" warning usually only reserved for Hawaii.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
Utah State (0-2) @ #3 Oklahoma (2-0)
Well, USU's probably better than North Texas. That's where the good news ends.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
#5 Texas (2-0) @ Central Florida (1-0)
UCF is a good C-USA team, as their upset over NCSU showed, and Texas has their weaknesses, as their close win against Arkansas State showed. This could be a Michigan/Appalachian State-esque conflation of two of my thoughts ("Michigan is pretty vulnerable"/"Appalachian State could upset a good team"), but I don't think UCF can play with the Longhorns for all four quarters.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3
#9 Ohio State (2-0) @ Washington (2-0)
The Boise win was impressive for U-Dub, but this is a QB in his third start against a defense that absolutely pantsed Akron then shoved them down some stairs. In my mind's eye I can see the insane upset and Washington being this year's team that wins on momentum and conflciting statistical evidence, but I don't think Jake Locker's this ready this soon. If OSU was a team built on offense, maybe, but come on now. It was Syracuse.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 3
Tennessee (1-1) @ #13 Florida (2-0)
Florida's such an x-factor it's hard to call it. Tennessee's fairly easy to peg - they can pass as well as anyone, and they can give up passing yards as much as anyone. Tim Tebow could exhibit the form he showed against Western Kentucky and Troy, or he could go through some sophomore growing pains. The Florida defense could be absolutely fine, or their disappointing performance against Troy could've been an omen. I'll pick Florida, since Tebow's been stellar so far, and he's really the one key to this game; a win here would go a long way in showing that the Gators are slowly living up to that #5 ranking.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Norfolk State @ #23 Rutgers (2-0)
Yeah, Rutgers is gonna kill 'em.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 5
Army (1-1) @ Wake Forest (0-2)
Wake's a perfectly fine team that, as I've said before, still feels like a team that is going to win some games it shouldn't. Army's the shits.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-2) @ Miami (1-1)
The fight last year is the most interesting thing about the game this year.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 5
Notre Dame (0-2) @ Michigan (0-2)
Holy shit I am so psyched for this. Michigan has Mike Hart, which is probably the difference here. The gameplan to beat the Wolverines is very obviously out there, but does UND have the personnel to execute it? Or, really, any personnel at all? New Michigan QB Ryan Mallett may be the worse of the two starters, but, again, the Wolverines offense at least has something proven in Mike Hart. I really just don't know where to start or where to end with the complete circus of ineptitude that is this game. Michigan should win based on talent, but is so absolutely defeated that there's no reason to believe they will - BUT, how the hell is Notre Dame going to beat them? They're so bad! This is just one big showdown of suck, and while I'd really like to pick UND here, partially out of spite and partially since I can't believe Lloyd Carr can motivate this team to victory, but it pretty much seems that if Michigan was actively trying to lose, Notre Dame's bad enough to not let them.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Delaware State @ Kent State (1-1)
Yawn. Kent beat ISU, and I assume Delaware State is worse than the Cyclones. I hope so.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 4
4:30 PM
New Hampshire @ Marshall (0-2)
If I remember right, UNH is a I-AA power, so they could actually pull one out here. Also, insert joke about backup QB murdering someone here.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:00 PM
Ball State (1-1) @ Navy (1-1)
And this, folks, is how Navy gets 8 wins.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
UCLA (2-0) @ Utah (0-2)
Utah's absolutely crippled, and while UCLA shouldn't have won against BYU and still has the difficulty of being a Karl Dorrell-team, they have the talent to smash Utah in a similar manner that they did Stanford. Think of this as a fight between a bear with brain damage and a three-legged dog.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 4
6:00 PM
Southern Miss (1-1) @ East Carolina (1-1)
Intriguing. Both teams are stout on defense, but I'll give USM the edge since they're more proven on offense. ECU QB Patrick Pinkney has looked good as an unexpected starter, but USM's Jeremy Young torched what is admittedly a suspect Tennessee secondary, and hey, that RB duo of Damion Fletcher and Antwain Easterling? Pretty great.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
Wofford @ NC State (0-2)
If NCSU loses this one, Tom O'Brien is officially absolved of his disappointing start, and the Wolfpack field should be checked for, like, carbon monoxide or something.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Louisiana Tech (1-1) @ #24 California (2-0)
It's time to play WHOSE SECONDARY IS WORSE? Well, only one team has the weapons to exploit the other, so the world may never know.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Idaho State @ Oregon State (1-1)
Oregon State's QB play has more or less been a disaster, but it should be a non-factor here -- expect Beavers RB Yvenson Bernard to run his way over the ISU defense and into our hearts/end zone.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 5
6:45 PM
Arkansas (1-0) @ #11 Alabama (2-0)
Alabama's QB play has been just suspect enough for me to be a bit way here. Darren McFadden's very good. Unfortunately, the Alabama running backs have been pretty good so far this year, and all Arkansas really has is Darren McFadden being very good. And really, for my comment about Alabama's QB play, Arkansas's is probably going to be worse.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
South Carolina State @ #7 South Carolina (2-0)
FIREWORKS!
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 5
Louisiana-Monroe (0-2) @ #12 Texas A&M (2-0)
A&M's been a frustrating team to watch, especially as someone who put them at #12 on the year. This has the potential to be another nail-biter if TAMU is lackluster, as ULM has a pretty high-powered offense. Still, the Aggies should eventually pull away and win this handily.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
Fresno State (1-1) @ #14 Oregon (2-0)
Fresno State seems back to their usual state of pulling off upsets and generally annoying people with their scrappy overratedness. Since Oregon isn't an overrated team like Washington and Kansas State were that one year (god, that wasn't only 2005, was it?), the Ducks should smash them good, even if Fresno may make a game of it at times.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
SMU (1-1) @ Arkansas State (0-1)
Arkansas State is somewhat of an unknown, with their one game being a loss to Texas that was too close to be part of a trend, while SMU...is a 6-6ish team with a good QB and an absolutely unnotable nothing else. ASU's at home and they played well against Texas, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas State @ Baylor (1-1)
Baylor just beat Rice, and really, six of one, half a dozen of the other.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 4
Houston (0-1) @ Tulane (0-1)
I'll take the team that looked impressive losing to Oregon that the one that looked futile losing to Mississippi State.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Toledo (0-2) @ Kansas (2-0)
Kansas was an absolute buzzsaw in destroying Central Michigan, the team that beat Toledo last week. Toledo has the MACtastic high-octane offense and low-octane defense, so the same result as Kansas-CMU wouldn't be all that surprising. Toledo has a shot, but if Kansas smashes them too, I may just have to deem them legit.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
McNeese State @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-2)
ULL's shown signs of life, so they should win this just fine.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 4
Mississippi (1-1) @ Vanderbilt (1-1)
A bit of an intriguing one. Vanderbilt's the better team, and definitely looked like such after week 1, where Ole Miss got a win against Memphis that they really didn't deserve. Then the Rebels proceeded to light up the Illinois defense in a loss, so maybe this team has potential after all. I'll give Vandy the slight benefit of the doubt, but really, this is pretty much a pick 'em.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
Alcorn State @ UAB (0-2)
UAB's pretty horrible, but showed some life against Michigan State and Florida State. Enjoy what could be your one win, Blazers.
My Pick: UAB
Confidence: 3
7:05 PM
Missouri State @ Kansas State (1-1)
I-AA opponents in Manhattan, Kansas, it brings a nostalgic tear to my eye.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
#6 Louisville (2-0) @ Kentucky (2-0)
Hell, if MIDDLE TENNESSEE scored on Louisville like that, Kentucky easily has a shot. Should be a fun shootout, but Kentucky's level of offense is essentially Louisville-lite.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (0-2) @ #1 LSU (2-0)
MTSU's performance should echo their game against Florida Atlantic than their excellent game against Louisville.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#4 USC (1-0) @ #20 Nebraska (2-0)
USC's still an unknown, winning easily but not impressively against Idaho and then taking a bye last week. Still, Nebraska had trouble containing the speed of Wake Forest last week, and Huskers QB Sam Keller hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, so this game could be over early and be ugly late.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Boston College (2-0) @ #25 Georgia Tech (2-0)
GT's another team that's hard to gauge - they've smashed weak competition, while BC looked good against Wake and destroyed NCSU in a game that the Wolfpack gave away. GT's at home, and hell, I have them ranked higher, so I'll give them the narrow edge. Yet another pick 'em-type situation.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (2-0) @ Boise State (1-1)
Intriguing little game. Wyoming had to come back from behind against Utah State, so that hurts their stock a bit in my eyes. Still, the Cowboys have the QB, RB, and to a lesser extent defense to hang with Boise, but the Broncos, likely led by RB Ian Johnson, should pull this out with time.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
Duke (0-2) @ Northwestern (2-0)
Northwestern's perfectly acceptable. Duke...isn't. I don't really know what to say about this game, as Duke has pretty much shown me no reason to have any faith in them. GOD THESE GUYS ARE SMART!
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 3
Jacksonville State @ Memphis (0-1)
Win number one! What is there to say, really?
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 5
UTEP (1-1) @ New Mexico State (1-1)
UTEP's been a PAMM (Perfectly Acceptable Mid-Major, an acronym I came up with just now and will probably never use again), while NMSU has quietly been a very disappointing team. With the passtastic standards the Hawaiis and Texas Techs of the world have set, NMSU is...meh. But, much like UVA, I will hold onto my scraps of hope. C'mon Aggies, you know you want that shovel! I think this game is for a shovel or something.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Brigham Young (1-1) @ Tulsa (1-0)
BYU should've beaten UCLA, most likely, and with that in mind, there's an obvious favorite. Tulsa's a good enough team to pull off an upset, especially at home, but I still have some reservations in their transition to a new offense, and I expect their offense to be unable to keep up with BYU's.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Nicholls State @ Nevada (0-2)
Nicholls State looks to go 2-0 against rebuilding I-A teams, but Nevada is way better than Rice. Rice is FRIED!, or some other forced newspaper headline-ish type statement.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
9:30 PM
#22 Hawaii (2-0) @ UNLV (1-1)
After Louisiana Tech took Hawaii to OT, I no longer know what to believe. UNLV had enough to nearly upset Wisconsin, and could do the same here, plus this game isn't on the Islands. Still, I can't pick against that tantalizing Colt Brennan-run offense. Mmmm shiny passes.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
San Diego State (0-1) @ #18 Arizona State (2-0)
SDSU was outclassed against Wazzou; ASU is Wazzou but about 5 times better. Eep.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 4
New Mexico (1-1) @ Arizona (1-1)
Arizona's new offense got humming against Northern Arizona, but their yardage seemed to be more quantity than quality, as QB Willie Tuitama wasn't that impressive. UNM stopped the UTEP offense en route to a 10-7 loss, and held NMSU to enough to pull out a win, so I'll give the edge to a solid UNM team facing an Arizona team in flux.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
Florida State (1-1) @ Colorado (1-1)
FSU struggled against UAB. Colorado's a young team, but has looked impressive. Uh oh, uh oh, uh oh. I'll pull the trigger, mostly since FSU this year is beginning to reek of last year's team, where they lose to teams that are fine, but definitely shouldn't beat the Noles. And hey, here's one!
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Idaho (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
The Robb Akey bowl! Idaho may put up a fine performance, but the Wazzou offense is just going to annihilate a suspect WAC D. 45-17 or something sounds like a best-case scenario for the Vandals.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 4
San Jose State (0-2) @ Stanford (0-1)
Oh, hell, I don't know. SJSU's been disappointing after a breakout year, and UCLA just performed absolutely unspeakable acts on Stanford. Jim Harbaugh's gotta motivate Stanford to a win sometime, and this is as good a place as any.
My Pick: Stanford
Confidence: 1
Buffalo (1-1) @ #8 Penn State (2-0)
You know, if Anthony Morelli struggles, I could see this being close for a quarter or two, as Buffalo is starting to look like a I-A team. Still, it's more close in the 3-0 variety than some sort of shootout, so the stout PSU defense should be able to hold the Bulls at bay enough where Penn State can put up a touchdown or two (at least) and win easy. That was probably horrible grammar, but I refuse to edit it.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence (out of 5): 4
The Citadel @ #10 Wisconsin (2-0)
Next.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
Akron (1-1) @ Indiana (2-0)
Indiana's been pretty impressive, especially in smashing Western Michigan, one of the better MAC teams. Akron, in contrast, is not one of the better MAC teams, and eked out a win against Army before putting on an absolutely pathetic performance against Ohio State. If Akron shows signs of life, it'll be a moral victory.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (1-1) @ Purdue (2-0)
Ehhhh. CMU has a shot if it develops into a shootout and things break right, but Purdue has too much firepower, and the Chippewas' crushing loss at Kansas still comes to mind. Purdue QB Curtis Painter is quietly having a great year so far, completing 66% of his passes for 592 and 10 TD, and he should continue that pace, at the very least.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (2-0) @ Miami of Ohio (1-1)
Cincinnati's probably slightly overrated after Oregon State turned it over so many times against them, and Miami is a MAC darkhorse, but the Bearcats are playing well enough that they should have no problem beating a MAC team.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 4
Temple (1-1) @ Connecticut (2-0)
You're killing me, Connecticut. UConn stomps teams like this easy, and Temple being annihilated at home by Buffalo suggests that the same will happen here. For those of us hoping to see how good the Huskies actually are, it'll be at least another week.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 5
Eastern Michigan (0-2) @ Northern Illinois (0-2)
A hard one to choose, since this could go either way. Preseason wisdom would say EMU has a chance, since they've improved from last year's horrible team, but NIU had enough talent to win easy, MAC parity aside. Still, while EMU's performed about as expected, NIU has been horrible so far this year, with no running game after the loss of Garrett Wolfe, and actually losing to I-AA Southern Illinois last week. I'll give NIU the benefit of the doubt at home, especially since, again, they have more talent, but based on performance and, again, the ever-present parity of the MAC, it could go either way.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
Illinois (1-1) @ Syracuse (0-2)
Ron Zook could managed to coach this one way, but I can never, in any circumstances, pick Syracuse. Illinois is a much better team, but Syracuse has to win ONE game, don't they? This is one of those weird games where I feel it could be an upset despite any rationality, but I won't pull the trigger and assume Wannstedt will be the guy to choke against the Orange.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Pittsburgh (2-0) @ Michigan State (2-0)
Speaking of! I would've picked Pitt easy before Bill Stull went down, but now it's fairly intriguing. MSU played the only opponent of note, holding off Bowling Green, but the other three games the teams have played have been against Grambling, UAB and Eastern Michigan. This essentially boils down to a pick 'em, and since MSU is at home, doesn't have Dave Wannstedt as a coach, and is Michigan State in September, I'll call for them to win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Virginia (1-1) @ North Carolina (1-1)
Crazier things have happened, but I'd like to think a veteran UVA team is better than East Carolina, even if I do like the ECU team. UNC has enough young talent and UVA's been lackluster enough that this could be a defining win for the Tar Heels this season, but I'll hold onto my last scraps of hope and call for Virginia to pull this one out. INERTIA!
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (1-1) @ Auburn (1-1)
Another very tempting upset, since Auburn's offense has been so lackluster, but I expect yet another ugly game from the Tigers, and this time one they should win. MSU's perfectly decent, but if Kansas State's offense struggled against the Auburn D, Mike Henig seems like a fairly safe bet to throw enough picks to keep the Bulldogs out of it.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Western Carolina @ #15 Georgia (1-1)
It really seems like Western Carolina gets smashed by an SEC team every week.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 5
Furman @ #21 Clemson (2-0)
Clemson should win this easy. Insight!
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 5
Minnesota (1-1) @ Florida Atlantic (1-1)
FAU's a good Sun Belt team, but this is the litmus test for if Minnesota's secondary can allow ANY team into the game. FAU may keep it close, but if Miami of Ohio couldn't beat the Gophers, I don't think the Owls can.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 2
1:30 PM
Ohio (2-0) @ #16 Virginia Tech (1-1)
It doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that Ohio someone pulls this one off, but come on now. ECU's much better than the Bobcats, and at the very least, the defense should roll. Maybe. Probably.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Iowa (2-0) @ Iowa State (0-2)
Iowa State is fucking terrible. I'll bump down my confidence in Iowa's win just because anything can happen in a rivalry game, but this is a Cyclones team that lost handily to Northern Iowa. That said, that probably only adds to the motivation for an ISU win, but if it's not now, it's probably never.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Western Michigan (2-0) @ #17 Missouri (2-0)
If this were the opener, I'd give WMU a shot due to their elite secondary, but after their performances against WVU and Indiana, that secondary doesn't look too elite. With this at Missouri, there's pretty much no reason to pick WMU, although Broncos QB Tim Hiller could make this a shootout against what is still a bad Missouri defense.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
3:00 PM
Texas Tech (2-0) @ Rice (0-2)
Rice is fucking terrible. Probably fucking terribler than Iowa State. Texas Tech has been humming right along, and Rice shows absolutely no ability to exploit the Raiders' defensive concerns, even with WR Jarett Dillard. TTU gets the "they could put up 90" warning usually only reserved for Hawaii.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
Utah State (0-2) @ #3 Oklahoma (2-0)
Well, USU's probably better than North Texas. That's where the good news ends.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
#5 Texas (2-0) @ Central Florida (1-0)
UCF is a good C-USA team, as their upset over NCSU showed, and Texas has their weaknesses, as their close win against Arkansas State showed. This could be a Michigan/Appalachian State-esque conflation of two of my thoughts ("Michigan is pretty vulnerable"/"Appalachian State could upset a good team"), but I don't think UCF can play with the Longhorns for all four quarters.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3
#9 Ohio State (2-0) @ Washington (2-0)
The Boise win was impressive for U-Dub, but this is a QB in his third start against a defense that absolutely pantsed Akron then shoved them down some stairs. In my mind's eye I can see the insane upset and Washington being this year's team that wins on momentum and conflciting statistical evidence, but I don't think Jake Locker's this ready this soon. If OSU was a team built on offense, maybe, but come on now. It was Syracuse.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 3
Tennessee (1-1) @ #13 Florida (2-0)
Florida's such an x-factor it's hard to call it. Tennessee's fairly easy to peg - they can pass as well as anyone, and they can give up passing yards as much as anyone. Tim Tebow could exhibit the form he showed against Western Kentucky and Troy, or he could go through some sophomore growing pains. The Florida defense could be absolutely fine, or their disappointing performance against Troy could've been an omen. I'll pick Florida, since Tebow's been stellar so far, and he's really the one key to this game; a win here would go a long way in showing that the Gators are slowly living up to that #5 ranking.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Norfolk State @ #23 Rutgers (2-0)
Yeah, Rutgers is gonna kill 'em.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 5
Army (1-1) @ Wake Forest (0-2)
Wake's a perfectly fine team that, as I've said before, still feels like a team that is going to win some games it shouldn't. Army's the shits.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-2) @ Miami (1-1)
The fight last year is the most interesting thing about the game this year.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 5
Notre Dame (0-2) @ Michigan (0-2)
Holy shit I am so psyched for this. Michigan has Mike Hart, which is probably the difference here. The gameplan to beat the Wolverines is very obviously out there, but does UND have the personnel to execute it? Or, really, any personnel at all? New Michigan QB Ryan Mallett may be the worse of the two starters, but, again, the Wolverines offense at least has something proven in Mike Hart. I really just don't know where to start or where to end with the complete circus of ineptitude that is this game. Michigan should win based on talent, but is so absolutely defeated that there's no reason to believe they will - BUT, how the hell is Notre Dame going to beat them? They're so bad! This is just one big showdown of suck, and while I'd really like to pick UND here, partially out of spite and partially since I can't believe Lloyd Carr can motivate this team to victory, but it pretty much seems that if Michigan was actively trying to lose, Notre Dame's bad enough to not let them.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Delaware State @ Kent State (1-1)
Yawn. Kent beat ISU, and I assume Delaware State is worse than the Cyclones. I hope so.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 4
4:30 PM
New Hampshire @ Marshall (0-2)
If I remember right, UNH is a I-AA power, so they could actually pull one out here. Also, insert joke about backup QB murdering someone here.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:00 PM
Ball State (1-1) @ Navy (1-1)
And this, folks, is how Navy gets 8 wins.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
UCLA (2-0) @ Utah (0-2)
Utah's absolutely crippled, and while UCLA shouldn't have won against BYU and still has the difficulty of being a Karl Dorrell-team, they have the talent to smash Utah in a similar manner that they did Stanford. Think of this as a fight between a bear with brain damage and a three-legged dog.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 4
6:00 PM
Southern Miss (1-1) @ East Carolina (1-1)
Intriguing. Both teams are stout on defense, but I'll give USM the edge since they're more proven on offense. ECU QB Patrick Pinkney has looked good as an unexpected starter, but USM's Jeremy Young torched what is admittedly a suspect Tennessee secondary, and hey, that RB duo of Damion Fletcher and Antwain Easterling? Pretty great.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
Wofford @ NC State (0-2)
If NCSU loses this one, Tom O'Brien is officially absolved of his disappointing start, and the Wolfpack field should be checked for, like, carbon monoxide or something.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Louisiana Tech (1-1) @ #24 California (2-0)
It's time to play WHOSE SECONDARY IS WORSE? Well, only one team has the weapons to exploit the other, so the world may never know.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Idaho State @ Oregon State (1-1)
Oregon State's QB play has more or less been a disaster, but it should be a non-factor here -- expect Beavers RB Yvenson Bernard to run his way over the ISU defense and into our hearts/end zone.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 5
6:45 PM
Arkansas (1-0) @ #11 Alabama (2-0)
Alabama's QB play has been just suspect enough for me to be a bit way here. Darren McFadden's very good. Unfortunately, the Alabama running backs have been pretty good so far this year, and all Arkansas really has is Darren McFadden being very good. And really, for my comment about Alabama's QB play, Arkansas's is probably going to be worse.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
South Carolina State @ #7 South Carolina (2-0)
FIREWORKS!
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 5
Louisiana-Monroe (0-2) @ #12 Texas A&M (2-0)
A&M's been a frustrating team to watch, especially as someone who put them at #12 on the year. This has the potential to be another nail-biter if TAMU is lackluster, as ULM has a pretty high-powered offense. Still, the Aggies should eventually pull away and win this handily.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
Fresno State (1-1) @ #14 Oregon (2-0)
Fresno State seems back to their usual state of pulling off upsets and generally annoying people with their scrappy overratedness. Since Oregon isn't an overrated team like Washington and Kansas State were that one year (god, that wasn't only 2005, was it?), the Ducks should smash them good, even if Fresno may make a game of it at times.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
SMU (1-1) @ Arkansas State (0-1)
Arkansas State is somewhat of an unknown, with their one game being a loss to Texas that was too close to be part of a trend, while SMU...is a 6-6ish team with a good QB and an absolutely unnotable nothing else. ASU's at home and they played well against Texas, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas State @ Baylor (1-1)
Baylor just beat Rice, and really, six of one, half a dozen of the other.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 4
Houston (0-1) @ Tulane (0-1)
I'll take the team that looked impressive losing to Oregon that the one that looked futile losing to Mississippi State.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Toledo (0-2) @ Kansas (2-0)
Kansas was an absolute buzzsaw in destroying Central Michigan, the team that beat Toledo last week. Toledo has the MACtastic high-octane offense and low-octane defense, so the same result as Kansas-CMU wouldn't be all that surprising. Toledo has a shot, but if Kansas smashes them too, I may just have to deem them legit.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
McNeese State @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-2)
ULL's shown signs of life, so they should win this just fine.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 4
Mississippi (1-1) @ Vanderbilt (1-1)
A bit of an intriguing one. Vanderbilt's the better team, and definitely looked like such after week 1, where Ole Miss got a win against Memphis that they really didn't deserve. Then the Rebels proceeded to light up the Illinois defense in a loss, so maybe this team has potential after all. I'll give Vandy the slight benefit of the doubt, but really, this is pretty much a pick 'em.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
Alcorn State @ UAB (0-2)
UAB's pretty horrible, but showed some life against Michigan State and Florida State. Enjoy what could be your one win, Blazers.
My Pick: UAB
Confidence: 3
7:05 PM
Missouri State @ Kansas State (1-1)
I-AA opponents in Manhattan, Kansas, it brings a nostalgic tear to my eye.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
#6 Louisville (2-0) @ Kentucky (2-0)
Hell, if MIDDLE TENNESSEE scored on Louisville like that, Kentucky easily has a shot. Should be a fun shootout, but Kentucky's level of offense is essentially Louisville-lite.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (0-2) @ #1 LSU (2-0)
MTSU's performance should echo their game against Florida Atlantic than their excellent game against Louisville.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#4 USC (1-0) @ #20 Nebraska (2-0)
USC's still an unknown, winning easily but not impressively against Idaho and then taking a bye last week. Still, Nebraska had trouble containing the speed of Wake Forest last week, and Huskers QB Sam Keller hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, so this game could be over early and be ugly late.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Boston College (2-0) @ #25 Georgia Tech (2-0)
GT's another team that's hard to gauge - they've smashed weak competition, while BC looked good against Wake and destroyed NCSU in a game that the Wolfpack gave away. GT's at home, and hell, I have them ranked higher, so I'll give them the narrow edge. Yet another pick 'em-type situation.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (2-0) @ Boise State (1-1)
Intriguing little game. Wyoming had to come back from behind against Utah State, so that hurts their stock a bit in my eyes. Still, the Cowboys have the QB, RB, and to a lesser extent defense to hang with Boise, but the Broncos, likely led by RB Ian Johnson, should pull this out with time.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
Duke (0-2) @ Northwestern (2-0)
Northwestern's perfectly acceptable. Duke...isn't. I don't really know what to say about this game, as Duke has pretty much shown me no reason to have any faith in them. GOD THESE GUYS ARE SMART!
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 3
Jacksonville State @ Memphis (0-1)
Win number one! What is there to say, really?
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 5
UTEP (1-1) @ New Mexico State (1-1)
UTEP's been a PAMM (Perfectly Acceptable Mid-Major, an acronym I came up with just now and will probably never use again), while NMSU has quietly been a very disappointing team. With the passtastic standards the Hawaiis and Texas Techs of the world have set, NMSU is...meh. But, much like UVA, I will hold onto my scraps of hope. C'mon Aggies, you know you want that shovel! I think this game is for a shovel or something.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Brigham Young (1-1) @ Tulsa (1-0)
BYU should've beaten UCLA, most likely, and with that in mind, there's an obvious favorite. Tulsa's a good enough team to pull off an upset, especially at home, but I still have some reservations in their transition to a new offense, and I expect their offense to be unable to keep up with BYU's.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Nicholls State @ Nevada (0-2)
Nicholls State looks to go 2-0 against rebuilding I-A teams, but Nevada is way better than Rice. Rice is FRIED!, or some other forced newspaper headline-ish type statement.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
9:30 PM
#22 Hawaii (2-0) @ UNLV (1-1)
After Louisiana Tech took Hawaii to OT, I no longer know what to believe. UNLV had enough to nearly upset Wisconsin, and could do the same here, plus this game isn't on the Islands. Still, I can't pick against that tantalizing Colt Brennan-run offense. Mmmm shiny passes.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
San Diego State (0-1) @ #18 Arizona State (2-0)
SDSU was outclassed against Wazzou; ASU is Wazzou but about 5 times better. Eep.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 4
New Mexico (1-1) @ Arizona (1-1)
Arizona's new offense got humming against Northern Arizona, but their yardage seemed to be more quantity than quality, as QB Willie Tuitama wasn't that impressive. UNM stopped the UTEP offense en route to a 10-7 loss, and held NMSU to enough to pull out a win, so I'll give the edge to a solid UNM team facing an Arizona team in flux.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
Florida State (1-1) @ Colorado (1-1)
FSU struggled against UAB. Colorado's a young team, but has looked impressive. Uh oh, uh oh, uh oh. I'll pull the trigger, mostly since FSU this year is beginning to reek of last year's team, where they lose to teams that are fine, but definitely shouldn't beat the Noles. And hey, here's one!
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Idaho (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
The Robb Akey bowl! Idaho may put up a fine performance, but the Wazzou offense is just going to annihilate a suspect WAC D. 45-17 or something sounds like a best-case scenario for the Vandals.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 4
San Jose State (0-2) @ Stanford (0-1)
Oh, hell, I don't know. SJSU's been disappointing after a breakout year, and UCLA just performed absolutely unspeakable acts on Stanford. Jim Harbaugh's gotta motivate Stanford to a win sometime, and this is as good a place as any.
My Pick: Stanford
Confidence: 1
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)