God, it's Week 4 already. Approaching that time of year where almost all the games are I-A vs. I-A, so I only have to write blurbs on, say, 58 or so a week.
12:00 PM
East Carolina (1-2) @ #3 West Virginia (3-0)
ECU looks like a better team than Marshall, so ECU is capable of putting a scare into the Mountaineers, but I keep saying the same thing about WVU, and it's why I have them ranked at #3: Other teams may hang with them for a while, but very few teams can run with them over four quarters, and eventually the WVU offense is just going to take over the game. ECU is not one of the teams that can score with them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Syracuse (0-3) @ #14 Louisville (2-1)
Louisville, as last week showed, can lose a shootout. Syracuse's idea of getting into a shootout is scoring, say, 21 points. Syracuse seems to be the worst team in a BCS conference, and easily at that.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-2) @ #19 South Florida (2-0)
UNC's not that bad; they could knock off a team or two in the wide-open ACC, and they're a young team that's only getting better. And really, USF isn't at the level of team where upsets like this aren't possible; still, the Bulls are solidly better than UNC, and should win this one easily, if not in a blowout.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
#20 Clemson (3-0) @ NC State (1-2)
An intriguing upset pick, even if I won't pull the trigger. Clemson's been a mercurial team, and they didn't look too great in a win against Furman, and really haven't been tested since the FSU game. NCSU's disappointed greatly through their first three games, and there's the looming feeling they could get their act together at any moment. Thhis really feels like a game Clemson could fumble this away or just underperform without any real warning, but I'll stick with the Tigers, likely against my better judgment.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
Kent State (2-1) @ Akron (1-2)
Akron's offense showed signs of life against Indiana last week, but the Zips have been terrible overall. Kent State's a perfectly fine MAC team, and while the usual MAC parity warning applies, KSU's the easy favorites.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Temple (0-3) @ Bowling Green (1-1)
Temple got robbed against UConn last week, so expect the Owls to use that as inspiration, and lead them to a loss against a resurgent team that's better than them. Well, Temple did manage to beat BGSU last year, but still, the Falcons have their act together much moreso this season.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Georgia Tech (2-1) @ Virginia (2-1)
A bit of a wild-card game. GT looked excellent against weaker competition before BC handled them easy, and UVA was horrible against Wyoming, but had solid wins against the two worst teams in the conference. If Virginia's offense couldn't handle Wyoming's D (which is actually the best they're faced so far), GT should at the very least be able to shut the Cavs down. It may be an ugly defensive struggle, but GT's the better team on both sides of the ball.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Illinois (2-1) @ Indiana (3-0)
The showdown to determine who the surprise team in the Big Ten is, essentially. Illinois was extremely unlucky last year, but this year are still somewhat unproven; they looked impressive in a shootout loss to Missouri, and then easily beat I-AA Western Illinois and might as well be I-AA Syracuse. Indiana has similar questions - they've beaten I-AA Indiana State, a pretty bad team this year in Akron, and a Western Michigan squad that now looks overrated. Illinois has more talent, but the best player on the field may be Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who's had 643 and a 9/3 ratio on 60% passing, and is also IU's leading rusher with 317 yards. It's about an even game, essentially "Talent & Potential @ Performance So Far", and since Performance So Far also has the home-field advantage, I'll go with the Hoosiers.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#9 Florida (3-0) @ Mississippi (1-2)
Florida's been a juggernaut against three weak teams and an overrated Tennessee, but I'm still anxious to see how they do when they get a real test. This ain't it.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
Ball State (2-1) @ #25 Nebraska (2-1)
Ball State's been a bit of a surprise in the MAC so far, and is a one-point loss to Miami Ohio away from being undefeated. I guess they have the offense to actually score on what's a suspect Nebraska defense, but come on now, they won't be able to stop the Huskers.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Army (1-2) @ #24 Boston College (3-0)
BC's quite overrated by the polls thanks to the seeming necessity of having an ACC presence, but the reality is just that they're the most impressive team and one of the top three (with VT and Clemson) in the glut of above-averageness that is that conference. That said, Army's probably in the bottom 10 teams in I-A, and will be crushed.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Duke (1-2) @ Navy (1-2)
Duke's competitive this year, as the Northwestern win showed, which makes this interesting. Navy can, and will, run on anyone, but their defense is weak enough this year to let anyone in the game. Surprisingly even, and essentially a pick 'em, I'll give the nod to homefield and past performance.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
William & Mary @ #16 Virginia Tech (2-1)
Phew, VT scheduled a I-AA cupcake. I was almost worried they hadn't this year.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
2:00 PM
Illinois State @ #17 Missouri (3-0)
Seeing how Missouri's offense does will be fun, unless everyone's sitting by the half. Yep.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 5
3:00 PM
Air Force (3-0) @ Brigham Young (1-2)
AFA's one of the biggest question marks in the nation, as their one solid win was the big upset of TCU, and the question remains if that was luck or something substantial. This won't be a walk, since BYU's way better than that 1-2 record, with an offense that can hang with pretty much anyone's. In fact, I expect BYU to be able to rack up a bunch of points here against an Air Force defense that has yet to really be tested and then go on to the win; how the AFA offense looks here should answer the questions about their going the rest of the year.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (2-1) @ Ohio (2-1)
Could go either way, as these are two teams that have been solidly above-average if not especially great. Ohio has homefield, but Wyoming's looked a bit more impressive, especially with the win against Virginia on their resume.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#7 South Carolina (3-0) @ #1 LSU (3-0)
South Carolina's my #2 ranked team in the SEC right now, and with Florida still being somewhat of a wild card, is probably no worse than third. The Gamecocks have a legendary offensive mind at head coach, and a veteran defense that's one of the more talented in the country. LSU could still beat them 35-0.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
#5 Penn State (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2)
Despite Michigan's woes, this still looks like the biggest road game on Penn State's schedule. Henne's still a question mark for UM, and whether or not he plays may be the difference, as the stout Penn State defense may wreak some havoc on the suddenly suspect Michigan offensive line. Really, for two teams with such distant rankings (or lack thereof), this could go either way; Penn State is by no means a juggernaut, and Michigan has the defensive talent to either shut down the running game, exploit PSU QB Anthony Morelli's mistakes, or do both. But, well, banking on Michigan's potential has burned pretty much everyone, so I'll call for Mike Hart to be impressive as usual, and, if not quite in Michigan-Oregon fashion, another disappointing loss for the Wolverines.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern (2-1) @ #6 Ohio State (3-0)
NW's a fine team, despite losing to Duke. Still, that OSU defense would be frightening if LSU wasn't setting such a high standard, and they should be able to shut the Wildcats down easy.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Memphis (1-1) @ Central Florida (1-1)
Memphis is a wild card, outplaying Ole Miss in a loss and then beating I-AA Jacksonville State. Still, UCF's been too impressive not to pick at home, beating NC State and putting a scare into Texas.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
North Dakota State @ Central Michigan (1-2)
CMU's a good enough team to not get caught. Yep.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (1-2) @ Colorado (1-2)
Miami was the latest victim of Cincinnati's Turnover-Related Path Of Rage, but is the solid level of MAC team that can put a scare into lower-tier BCS schools. And Colorado probably fits in that. Still, the Buffaloes are a level above, say, Minnesota, who Miami took to OT, and CU has enough talent where they should win this comfortably at home.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Howard @ Eastern Michigan (1-2)
Just repeat the CMU blurb above, although Eastern's a worse team than Central.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 3
Maryland (2-1) @ Wake Forest (1-2)
Two more teams in the glut of the ACC upper-tier. Maryland's probably looked better, but against weaker competition, and Wake was the better team last year, even if both were lucky. Wake's at home, and as I've said many times, they look like a team that's going to a win a few games they shouldn't, so what the hell, I'll choose them in a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (3-0) @ Notre Dame (0-3)
This screams "upset", but I can't even visualize Notre Dame winning. Michigan State has a very good running back in Jehuu Caulcrick, and that one-man show should put this game out of reach for the Irish alone. Notre Dame could win on turnovers and field position, which given Michigan State's history isn't out of the question, but, really, I can't see it.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 3
Texas Tech (3-0) @ Oklahoma State (1-2)
OK State's horribly disappointing, but could actually win a shootout here. Still, TTU's offense has been so prolific, and OK State's defense has been so horrible, that the Red Raiders should win easy. Then again, I thought Louisville-Kentucky would play out much the same way.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
Colorado State (0-2) @ Houston (1-1)
CSU was very close against Colorado and Cal, so they're better than that winless record. Houston had an excellent performance in a loss to Oregon, but was less than dominant in beating Tulane, so the Cougars offense seems somewhat shaky and erratic with the graduation of Kevin Kolb. CSU's showed they can score easily with the veteran duo of QB Caleb Hanie and RB Kyle Bell, so I'll pick the Rams to win what could wind up being a pretty fun little game.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Northern Illinois (0-3) @ Idaho (1-2)
NIU's been shaky enough where this game is almost a pick 'em, especially since the Vandals are the team here that actually beat their I-AA opponent. I'll give NIU the edge as I hold onto the last scraps of hope that the Huskies' talent will result in something.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Arizona (1-2) @ #23 California (3-0)
Arizona's offshoot of the Texas Tech offense seems to be taking, and Cal has an extremely suspect pass defense, AND this is probably the toughest defense Cal has faced yet. HMMMMM. The warning lights are going off for the upset alert in my gut, but I'll refrain from pulling the trigger on an Arizona win since they're a Mike Stoops-coached team who doesn't win games like this and all.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 1
Kentucky (3-0) @ Arkansas (1-1)
Wait, what? Kentucky's actually ranked? That wasn't, like, from the Onion or something? UK's one chance to prevent Darren McFadden from having a monster game will be if the Wildcats break his leg like they did Michael Bush's last year. Of course, this will only result in Felix Jones having a monster game en route to an Arkansas win, but hey, at least Kentucky can look back on their top-25 worthy wins against Louisville and...Kent State?
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 4
Baylor (2-1) @ Buffalo (1-2)
Baylor's wins have been against I-AA Texas State and Rice, who may be the worst team in I-A, so it's hard to tell where the Bears stand. Buffalo beat Temple like a dead hooker in Grand Theft Auto, so the Bulls at least seem to be a much improved team. I'll give Baylor the edge just out of having Big 12-level talent, but a surprise win by Buffalo here wouldn't be much of a surprise.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Portland State @ San Diego State (0-2)
Portland State's an excellent I-AA team, so this'll be the closest I come to picking a I-AA outside of that one game last year where I got really pissed at some team and actually picked the I-AA.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Rice (0-3) @ #8 Texas (3-0)
UT's been somewhat disappointing, but as mentioned above, Rice is probably the worst team in I-A. Splat.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
Arkansas State (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-2)
Troy-OK State showed something like this could happen, and while ASU QB Corey Leonard is more than capable of exploiting a suspect Tennessee secondary, the talent gap is big enough where the Vols should win this solidly.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 3
New Mexico State (2-1) @ Auburn (1-2)
NMSU's high-powered offense has been somewhat disappointing this year, so Auburn should be able to shut things down and get a much-needed win.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Connecticut (3-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-1)
Finally seeing my beloved Huskies on television made me see that, well, this is the same old frustrating UConn team. Almost losing to Temple didn't help. That said, the same old frustrating UConn team beat Pitt in Hartford last year, and the Panthers were a much better team last season, and one that actually had a QB. The exasperating this is, that with this game, Syracuse, and two disappointing teams left out-of-conference in Virginia and Akron, UConn actually has a shot at not only being bowl eligible, but winning 7 games. God. And, as for who I'm choosing, this is essentially a pick 'em, so I'll go with last year's history, a lack of faith in Dave Wannstedt, and, frankly, a slight bit of personal bias.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (2-1) @ North Texas (0-2)
UNT is a team that can put up an insane amount of yardage, but FAU is coming off a big win against Minnesota. Really, FAU's a more complete team all-around, and UNT reminds me of NMSU last year: a lot of yardage, a lot of losses. Sun Belt parity warning applies, though.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Florida International (0-3) @ Kansas (3-0)
Kansas has been a buzzsaw, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 4
Iowa State (1-2) @ Toledo (0-3)
Toledo's been quite disappointing, especially in getting shut down by the aforementioned buzzsaw that is Kansas, but I don't think ISU's "death via field goal" offense is going to do well for more than one game.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Troy (1-2) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-3)
Troy's one of the top-tier Sun Belt teams. Whatever that's worth. I'm not exactly sure. Still, they're better.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Gardner-Webb @ Mississippi State (2-1)
MSU's a perfectly fine team, they should win here, move on folks, nothing to see here.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 4
Central Connecticut State @ Western Michigan (0-3)
CCSU had a running back drafted in the last draft. Yep. Isn't that fun for them.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
Marshall (0-3) @ Cincinnati (3-0)
Cincinnati's a bit overrated, since turnovers have made their wins look more impressive than they were, but the Bearcats should beat a scuffling Marshall team easy.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#15 Georgia (2-1) @ #10 Alabama (3-0)
Two outstandingly even teams, winning on defense and running with perfectly capable passing games. There's no real clear-cut edge here, as Georgia has the one loss, but the Bulldogs' passing game has been much more consistent. Hell, I'll actually give UGA the edge thanks to consistency, and really, just to spit in the face of the media's conventional wisdom, which is a surprisingly effective strategy.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Washington State (2-1) @ #4 USC (2-0)
USC's a thoroughly vulnerable team, but Wazzou is essentially an inferior version of the all-offense no-defense team that USC smashed last week in Nebraska.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Iowa (2-1) @ #11 Wisconsin (3-0)
Meh. Iowa's still a slightly above-average team despite the loss to Iowa State, but that loss makes it hard to have any faith in the Hawkeyes here. Still, Wisconsin's vulnerable, and Iowa still seems to have the defense where they can keep it close enough to win. But it's not like Iowa is any kind of offensive juggernaut, so I expect an ugly defensive game that Wisconsin wins by a touchdown or two.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
Sacramento State @ New Mexico (2-1)
UNM's a perfectly fine team that should win this without a problem. Yep.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 4
San Jose State (0-3) @ Utah State (0-3)
USU's actually been the more impressive team so far, as it seems like SJSU has regressed to their pre-2006 form. I'll call for the upset because really, why the hell not, and the Aggies have hung close with Wyoming and UNLV.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 1
Southeastern Louisiana @ Tulane (0-2)
Tulane's the type of lower-tier team that's vulnerable to upsets by I-AAs, but SELA's been pretty unimpressive in their games against I-A teams. Plus Tulane didn't look too awful against Houston, and Green Wave RB Matt Forte is good, so Tulane should hang on.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 3
8:30 PM
SMU (1-2) @ TCU (1-2)
TCU's been disappointing, but expectations were a bit high for the Horned Frogs in the preseason. They're a very good team, but not dominant in the MWC or anything. SMU, meanwhile, has disappointed just as much, if not more, looking pretty bad against Arkansas State and giving up a boatload of passing yards in a win against North Texas. So, essentially, TCU, while they may just be "above-average" instead of "top-25", should be able to shut down SMU and win this easy.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
Purdue (3-0) @ Minnesota (1-2)
Minnesota's secondary somehow gives up passing yards when the other team runs the ball, so this will be really fun and get really ugly really fast. This could wind up looking like what that Hawaii opening game would've if Colt Brennan had played the whole thing.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 5
9:05 PM
Texas Southern @ UTEP (1-2)
Another I-AA @ decent mid-major team that should easily beat a I-AA team game. Yawn.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#12 Oregon (3-0) @ Stanford (1-1)
Stanford has something there, and Jim Harbaugh should be able to coach the Cardinal up for an upset here or there, but here? No.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (2-1) @ #18 Arizona State (3-0)
Still remaining skeptical of Oregon State's QB play - it's been either low completion percentages or high amounts of interceptions against their I-A opponents, and I'll believe things are better when I see it. That, plus ASU being a juggernaut at home make this a pretty easy pick for the Sun Devils.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
Utah (1-2) @ UNLV (1-2)
I had left Utah for dead, but there's apparently something there, as the Utes smashed UCLA and good. UNLV doesn't look too ready to cash in on their potential, so Utah it is.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (2-1) @ UCLA (2-1)
Washington QB Jake Locker's legit, and UCLA showed their imploding tendencies, so who knows how this one's gonna go. Essentially a pick 'em, so I'm gonna go with my occasional strategy of picking against the conventional wisdom that an upset will happen, since conventional wisdom is often wrong. Woo.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Charleston Southern @ #21 Hawaii (3-0)
Colt Brennan may miss this, won't matter towards the result of the game. Should be fun.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
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