Week 5 Preview: Thursday and Friday

THURSDAY
7:00 PM

Memphis (1-2) @ Arkansas State (1-2)
This really could go either way, mostly since Memphis is the wild card of the two. The Tigers beat I-AA Jacksonville State as they should, but outplayed Ole Miss in a loss, and got smashed by UCF, which says more about the latter's dominance than anything about Memphis. Arkansas State handily beat a disappointing SMU team, but played well in losses to Texas and Tennessee. In the preseason, I would've given this to Memphis easy, so the Tigers have a shot, but ASU's two-pronged attack (QB Corey Leonard, RB Reggie Arnold) has played much too well this season not to pick them at home.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence (out of 5): 1

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7:30 PM

Southern Miss (2-1) @ Boise State (2-1)
Two teams with very similar resumes: an easy win over a I-AA (Tennessee-Martin, Weber State), a definite loss to a BCS team (Tennessee, Washington), and a solid but unspectacular win over a team a notch below them (ECU, Wyoming). Boise seems like an easy favorite - I can't speak for the I-AAs, but Boise pretty much faced the better team in each of those comparisons. USM just hasn't really come off as a dominant C-USA team thus far (although, admittedly, this is mostly based off the ECU game), and that smurf turf is a hell of a homefield advantage for the Broncos.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2

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FRIDAY
8:00 PM

#3 West Virginia (4-0) @ #16 South Florida (3-0)
I've mostly been of the mind that pretty much nobody can run with WVU over four quarters, but this maaaay be an exception, as USF has the stoutest run defense in the Big East. Granted, that's against Elon, Auburn, and UNC, but still, this is also probably the best defense the WVU rushing attack has faced yet. Though, honestly, the big question is on the other side of the ball; WVU will likely manage to score, and while they may not reach their 47-point average for the year, will USF's offense be able to do enough if their defense stops the Mountaineers? The Bulls offense so far can be classified as "solid", and they probably need more than that. While, don't get me wrong, the Bulls have a definite chance of pulling off the upset, they still are relatively unproven what with Auburn being so bad, and I can't pick them with WVU's offense being seemingly such a sure thing.
My Pick: West Virginia
COnfidence: 1