Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Week 1 Recap: The Rest

Sorry for the lateness and slightly rushed nature of this, it's just been a busy week. In a good way. Not like, getting attacked by rabid cats or anything. In alphabetical order, only games of interest, let's go!

Brigham Young 20, Arizona 7
Disappointing overall on both sides, but BYU was at least passable. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama had a shiny completion percentage (72%) and a pretty decent 216 yards, but that was pretty much the extent of the new Arizona offense. Neither running game did much. Bleh. I'll maintain some faith in BYU, but it looks like the transition in Arizona is going to take quite awhile.
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK DOWN

Arkansas 46, Troy 26
Pretty much a success in every sense of the word for Arkansas, as Darren McFadden and Felix Jones both had huge games on the ground (151 and 129 for a TD each), and QB Casey Dick actually had a completion percentage over 50%. Still doesn't really change my feelings on them versus the rest of the SEC, though. As for Troy, well. QB Omar Hougabook should probably do better than that 35% completion percentage. They put up a fight out of sheer quantity of passing, and they're still my Sun Belt favorites, but I'll knock them down to nothing more than "the best Sun Belt team."
Arkansas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Troy: STOCK DOWN

Auburn 23, Kansas State 13
Ugh. I was surprised at how amazingly shut down KSU's running game was, but as I expected, Josh Freeman put up some moderately decent peripherals but not much production (56%, 268, 2 INT). But, uh, wow, Auburn. I forebode implosion potential if the offensive line didn't come together, and while I didn't expect much, only 62 yards even outdid my lowered standards. And Brandon Cox, whose line (57%, 229, 1/2) was similar to Freeman's, is in fact not a QB who can carry this team.
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
Kansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Boise State 56, Weber State 7
569 yards, 371 rushing, I think that Boise offense will be fine.
Boise State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Boston College 38, Wake Forest 28
BC may have improved their stock with me more than any team in the nation, as QB Matt Ryan (32/52, 408 yards, 5/2 TD/INT) put away concerns that scheme changes would negate the Eagles' talent, even if it was the Wake Forest defense. Wake gave it a go, though, and at the times looked like the team that could always win due to luck; plus, while the two WF QBs combined for only a 2/4 TD/INT ratio, they also completed 75% of their passes against a very good BC secondary. A good game for both teams, though obviously much moreso for BC.
Boston College: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK UP

Bowling Green 32, Minnesota 31 (OT)
Minnesota once again did most of their damage via RB Amir Pinnix, who ran for 168 and 2 touchdowns. But the real story is that the BGSU offense is, in fact, BACK under starting QB Tyler Sheehan (34/51, 388 yards, 2 TD) who is, in fact, not Anthony Turner. I expected the offense to rebound for the Falcons, and Minnesota does in fact have a shit secondary, so my opinions still don't change on either team on the whole.
Bowling Green: STOCK NEUTRAL
Minnesota: STOCK NEUTRAL

Rutgers 38, Buffalo 3
I thought Buffalo had improved to a fairly respectable level, but the Bulls did nothing on either side of the ball - I'll still reserve judgement until they face some weaker competition, though. As for Rutgers, with my aforementioned thoughts on Buffalo, I actually found this to be a pretty impressive destruction. Ray Rice shredded Buffalo for 184 and 3 touchdowns, but more importantly, Mike Teel had a huge game, throwing for 328 and 2 touchdowns on almost 60% passing. I had Rutgers at #34, but with this they officially enter "possible top 25 team" status in my mind, so...
Rutgers: STOCK UP
Buffalo: STOCK NEUTRAL

California 45, Tennessee 31
THROWING!!!! Both starting QBs had excellent games, showing the weakness of their opposing secondaries, but the Cal offense was the one that passed the eyeball test, between WR DeSean Jackson's soon to be overrated playmaking ability and the 156 yard effort of RB Justin Forsett. Tennessee's still a perfectly fine team with questions about their secondary, but I'll bump Cal up a notch out of the sheer impressiveness of their offense, possibly into my top 25.
California: STOCK UP
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL

Central Florida 25, NC State 23
Well, NC State has their glaring problem for year: run defense. UCF's Kevin Smith is a very talented mid-major running back, but letting him run for 217 and 2 touchdowns just seems...wrong. And to add injury to insult, one-half of the Wolfpack's two-headed RB monster, Toney Baker, is already out for the year. This game, obviously, is good news for UCF - even if they were outgained, Smith pretty much established himself to the point where the Golden Knights are C-USA title contenders, not just C-USA East title contenders. As for NC State, my thoughts actually stay pretty constant - QB Harrison Beck played well when he took over for now ex-starter Daniel Evans, and really, they have just as much chance as they did last week in the ACC. Outside of BC, Clemson, and Miami, everyone either didn't do anything of note or horribly underperformed.
Central Florida: STOCK UP
NC State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Kansas 52, Central Michigan 7
Whoa. Even if CMU's front seven had some big graduations, concerns about KU's running game are no more, as Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp ran for over 100 yards each. Just a whoopin'. Kansas gets an automatic upgrade in standing, but I'll leave CMU be for the moment, since the MAC is much stronger on QBs than RBs this year.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Central Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL

Colorado 31, Colorado State 28 (OT)
CSU wasn't very surprising: a very solid, veteran team that can play with middle-tier schools from BCS conferences. The real revelation was CU QB Cody Hawkins, who as a redshirt freshman put up a wholly decent line (18/31, 201, 2/1 TD/INT ratio) and started off absolutely blazing. CU looks like a team ready to compete NOW, rather than by the end of the year, so Kansas and Kansas States of the world, watch out.
Colorado: STOCK UP
Colorado State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Connecticut 45, Duke 14
YES! And it was pretty much that one-sided once the UConn offense got rolling in the second half. I really expected Duke to put up more of a fight on both sides of the ball. As for UConn, I'm still not sold on any improvement - they've beaten the hell out of weak OOC schedules before.
Connecticut: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke: STOCK DOWN

Pittsburgh 27, Eastern Michigan 3
Only notable because of the thumb injury to Pitt QB Bill Stull, which will keep him out 6-8 weeks. Especially notable since outside of Syracuse, all of Pitt's winnable games are pretty much in that 6-8 window. And rather than start highly touted frosh Pat Bostick, it looks like they're planning to redshirt him and go with something called "redshirt freshman Kevan Smith." This could sink their season, or at least their bowl-eligibility.
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN

Georgia Tech 33, Notre Dame 3
SMASH. I mean, holy shit. 9 sacks? The offensive line being THAT bad, even with two talented players like Young and Sullivan? The QBs, outside of Demetrius Jones, had fine completion percentages (Sharpley: 77%, Clausen: 67%, Jones: 33%), but were amazingly unproductive, and the running game, holy shit the running game. NEGATIVE YARDS? It's hard to tell even if the UND pass defense has anything going, because holy shit Georgia Tech and Tashard Choice just ran all over them. A complete disaster. I thought before the year that Weis wouldn't be fired this year if he struggled, but that's all out the window. Just, again, a complete disaster. I'll reserve judgement on GT until they play a team that isn't this god-awful stinking horrible.
Georgia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN

Indiana 55, Indiana State 7
Yes, this was a thrashing of a I-AA team, but Indiana lost to Southern Illinois last year in one of the games Bill Lynch coached. This very slightly relieves some of my skepticism, but I won't bump them up just yet.
Indiana: STOCK NEUTRAL

Iowa 16, Northern Illinois 3
NIU's the team of concern here - it's hard to tell if it's just the level of competition, but there's some foreboding things on offense, between QB Dan Nicholson's 3 INT and the complete shutdown of the usually-reliably Husky running game. Things weren't much better for Iowa QB Jake Christensen, who only completed 41% of his passes, but at least their running game had an insane day (144 yards for Albert Young, 110 for Desmond Sims) to bail him out.
Iowa: STOCK NEUTRAL
Northern Illinois: STOCK DOWN

Kent State 23, Iowa State 14
About what was expected: both teams did fine, Kent State was slightly better. Really just a reminder that, if anyone expects ISU to do something in Gene Chizik's first season, it will be, in fact, a long year.
Kent State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Tulsa 35, Louisiana-Monroe 17
More or less a good game for both teams. Tulsa's offense seems to have taken, at least to the degree it can beat a good Sun Belt team. Even without top RB Courtney Tennial, backup Tarrion Adams still ran for 129 on top of 2 rushing TDs. And star ULM running back Calvin Dawson showcased himself, rushing for 150, although without a score. Both offenses are humming, as expected, and there are still questions on each defense.
Tulsa: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK NEUTRAL

Louisiana Tech 28, Central Arkansas 7
Tech still managed to be outgained by over 100 yards and give up 26 passing. Enjoy your one win this season!
Louisiana Tech: STOCK DOWN

Michigan State 55, UAB 18
MSU RB Jehuu Caulcrick had 4 touchdowns. UAB is so bad that this means nothing.
Michigan State: STOCK NEUTRAL
UAB: STOCK NEUTRAL

Mississippi 23, Memphis 21
Not much on the opinion front here, just wanted to point this out as an example where the losing team kicked the shit out of their opponents in every facet but turnovers, and wound up being the losing team because of it.

Oregon State 24, Utah 7
Might as well get Utah out of the way - their stock is down if only because of injuries to starters RB Matt Asiata (out for the season) and even worse, star QB Brian Johnson (out 3+ weeks). Backup QB Tommy Grady was highly touted after transferring from Oklahoma, but his performance (59 yards on a horrible 9/24 passing) is completely not inspiring. My opinion of Oregon State doesn't really change - they were facing a hobbled offense, and while RB Yvenson Bernard (165 yards, 2 TD) proved himself to be a stud, but the rotating quarterback thing is absolutely not working. 40% passing? Ugh.
Oregon State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah: STOCK DOWN

Purdue 52, Toledo 24
One would hope Purdue could score against a MAC defense, and that they did, with QB Curtis Painter lighting up the Rockets for 244 and 4 TD, albeit on 47% passing. And really, the QB play on both sides was uninspiring, since starting Toledo QB Aaron Opelt had 69 yards and a pick on an ugly 37% passing, before becoming benched Toledo QB Aaron Opelt. Both teams still have both the overall talent and running game to compete in their respective conferences, but caution flags are out there.
Purdue: STOCK NEUTRAL
Toledo: STROCK NEUTRAL

Nicholls State 16, Rice 14
Well, this doesn't look like much of an upset now, does it?
Rice: STOCK DOWN

Texas Tech 49, SMU 9
TTU QB Graham Harrell stepped up to Colt Brennan's challenge, throwing for 419 and 4 TD on 74.6% passing. Neither running game did much, and SMU QB Justin Willis struggled against the Tech D. Really just a harsh reminder than SMU isn't there yet, and TTU should be far from buried, especially with the struggles of Oklahoma State.
Texas Tech: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK NEUTRAL

UCLA 45, Stanford 17
An absolute shitkicking. UCLA's still a fringe top-25 team to me, but improved play from Stanford now falls into the "I'll believe it when I see it" category.
UCLA: STOCK NEUTRAL
Stanford: STOCK DOWN

Washington 42, Syracuse 12
Jake Locker may have only had 142 yards, but that 73.7% completion percentage shows the poise that the UW QB had in his first start. And hey, his 82 yards and 2 TD was part of a rushing attack that annihilated Syracuse en route to 302 yards. Washington can compete for, say, 6th in the Pac 10, but Syracuse is pretty much just as horrible as I expected. Cue the Benny Hill music bad, people.
Washington: STOCK UP
Syracuse: STOCK NEUTRAL

UNLV 23, Utah State 16
Downgrading UNLV a little bit off of this. I thought they could upset their way to bowl-eligibility, but this seems more like a 4-5 win team based on this performance. And it had nothing to do with USU stepping up its game, as while Aggies QB Leon Jackson looks to have had a decent enough day, their running game is still very uninspiring.
UNLV: STOCK DOWN
Utah State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Wyoming 23, Virginia 3
When I first saw the result, I figured it was closer than the score, and that it was more good news for Wyoming than bad for UVA. But, no, the Virginia Cavaliers put on all-out shitfest. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell only completed 48% of his passes, and the running game did even less. And while Wyoming's offense is fine enough, Karsten Sween probably should not be completing 73.5% of his passes against an experienced ACC team. Just an abhorrent game for Virginia and a huge win for Wyoming. At least OK State had the excuse of playing Georgia.
Wyoming: STOCK UP
Virginia: STOCK DOWN

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