Sunday, September 23, 2007

Week 4 Recap

#1 LSU 28, #7 South Carolina 16
It was 28-7 after three quarters, so it's not like this was a dogfight where LSU pulled away late. And really, while this wasn't a flat-out destruction of an offense like the Tigers had against Virginia Tech, the LSU defense was once again a dominant unit. The SC QBs were able to put up some not-horrible counting stats, putting up 244 yards and a bad-not-horrible 1/2 ratio, but neither Chris Smelley or Blake Mitchell completed half their passes. And meanwhile, LSU absolutely shut down the running game, holding the Gamecocks to only 17 yards. My instinct was to say that this shows LSU is beatable if their offense is having a bad day, but, well, this WAS their offense having a bad day. The running back committee was quite productive, but QB Matt Flynn had more or less the same line as an SC QB, completing only 42% of his passes for a 1/1 ratio. LSU remains a dominant team, and as for South Carolina, it's hard to fault them for running into such a brick wall.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL

#2 Oklahoma 62, Tulsa 21
Dang. OU didn't stop Tulsa from racking up 398 yards, but they did keep the Golden Hurricane from being overly productive, and sacked Tulsa QBs 6 times. They also exhibited a LSU-esque run defense, holding Tulsa to only 44 yards on the ground. But the real impressive thing is the OU offense, which was once again a well-oiled machine. QB Sam Bradford completed 73% of his 22 passes for 244 and a 3/1 ratio, and Allen Patrick was this week's leading RB, going for 145 and 2 TD on 19 carries, though redshirt frosh sensation DeMarco Murray also had 46 and 2 scores on 8 touches. Tulsa isn't Virginia Tech or Miami or anything, but this was another impressive, dominating performance.
Oklahoma: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulsa: STOCK NEUTRAL

#3 West Virginia 48, East Carolina 7
Utter domination, as the WVU defense came through with flying colors, holding the Pirates to only 160 yards. Pat White had an excellent day passing, going for 18/20 for 181 and 2 TD, and added 42 and 2 more scores on the ground. He's probably my Heisman leader at the moment. Slaton also had his usual good day, going for 110 and a score of his own. Nice to see a good game from the WVU defense, and this probably remains the best, or at least the "least stoppable," offense in the country.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
East Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL

#4 USC 47, Washington State 14
Pretty much the same story as the Nebraska game, as USC neutralized the opposing offense and was able to exploit a suspect defense, although this time QB John David Booty was more productive, going 28/35 for 279 and a 4/1 TD. Same old, same old, USC's still one of the few elite teams, but I still have them as fourth-best, especially with WVU dominating so much this week. And sadly, with USC's next three games against Stanford, Arizona, and Notre Dame, it may be awhile before they have something to gain.
USC: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Michigan 14, #5 Penn State 9
Well, Anthony Morelli hasn't improved. He didn't have any picks, but then again, he had no touchdowns and only completed 48.4% of his passes, so he's more, say, Brandon Cox than Carson Palmer as far as "finally getting in during a senior season" goes. The Michigan defense looked good, only holding PSU to 270 yards, and Wolverines QB Ryan Mallett was decent enough (16/29, 170, INT) was good enough to let Mike Hart win it on 153 yards and a touchdown. I said I'd believe it when I see it regarding Michigan, and things are looking better; they're like, all cleaned up and back on the wagon, and they're showing up wearing a suit and looking good and everything, but you still have that feeling things could implode and wind up where they started at any moment. So, yeah, any faith in Morelli was proven unjustified, and while Michigan's stock is taking a step up, they're not back to being Michigan just yet.
Michigan: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN

#6 Ohio State 58, Northwestern 7
OSU "only" had 396 yards, but as the score shows, that offense was an efficient wrecking ball. QB Todd Boeckman was Sam Bradford-esque, going 11/14 for 179 and a 4/1 ratio, and Chris Wells, funnily enough, did a DeMarco Murray impression, going for 100 and a TD. And the defense was dominant as usual, holding Northwestern to 120 yards, all passing. Northwestern looks to be sliding quickly after a great start, and with this, OSU definitively becomes the fifth elite team in the nation.
Ohio State: STOCK UP
Northwestern: STOCK DOWN

#8 Texas 58, Rice 14
Rice's 7 wins last year means nothing; this was essentially Texas beating up on a I-AA team, and thus there's very little to be taken from it, even if holding a team to negative 11 rushing yards is pretty neat.
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL
Rice: STOCK NEUTRAL

#9 Florida 30, Mississippi 24
Tim Tebow was his usual dreamy self, in fact earning the coveted KINSMON LANCASTER AWARD for outgaining the entire opposition by his lonesome, passing for 261 and rushing for 166, making for a total of 427 yards versus Ole Miss's 390. Really, with UF shutting down the run just fine, the only point of concern is that secondary, as unheralded Rebels QB Seth Adams completed 58% of his passes for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. Ole Miss has been more competitive that I've expected, so I'll bump them up, but Florida remains where I had them -- a very good team, but questions with that young defense keep me from bumping them into the elite.
Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Mississippi: STOCK UP

#15 Georgia 26, #10 Alabama 23 (OT)
Pretty much insanely even, as everything was close in every aspect. I picked Georgia to win on the rationale that Stafford had been slightly more consistent than Wilson, and the only tangible difference in the game was Stafford (54%, 224, 2/2) being slightly more productive than Wilson (49%, 185, 0/0). I deserve full credit for this. But, really, it was a neat game, not much to really take out of it - they're essentially the same, very good team.
Georgia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Alabama: STOCK NEUTRAL

#11 Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13
A somewhat unimpressive win for the Badgers. QB Tyler Donovan was decent, but not spectacular - he at least completed over 50% of his passes (52%), but only had 138 yards and a 1/1 ratio. Running back PJ Hill had good counting stats, with 113 and a TD, but only had 3.9 yards per carry. I'll nudge Wisconsin down, even if the ranking doesn't won't necessarily show it too much - there really is a lack of top quality teams so far this year. Oh, and as for Iowa...bleh. I nudged them down after the ISU loss, and that's about where they deserve to be.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Iowa: STOCK NEUTRAL

#12 Oregon 55, Stanford 31
Stanford was actually up 31-24 before Oregon decided they had enough and just went crazy. Ducks QB Dennis Dixon had his usual great game, going for 367 and 4 TD on 75% passing, and RB Jonathan Stewart was a juggernaut as well, with 160 and a TD on over 8 yards per carry. The bigger story is Stanford being competitive though, with QB T.C. Ostrander being decent (57%, 268, 2/1) and RB Anthony Kimble having a very good game, going for 119 and 2 scores. Oregon, as expected for a Pac 10 team, has some questions on defense, and as I've said before, Stanford looks like a team that Jim Harbaugh is going to coach up to an upset or two. Yep.
Oregon: STOCK NEUTRAL
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL

Miami 34, #13 Texas A&M 17
Texas A&M's lack of balance finally caught up with them, since as I said, if Miami can do one thing, it's stop the run. They held the Aggies to just 98 yards on the ground, and it turns out they could actually do more than one thing, with QB Kyle Wright completing 81! percent of his passes for 275 and 2 TD, and leading rusher Graig Cooper having only 50 yards and a TD, but gashing the Aggies D for 7.1 yards a carry. I'll knock the Aggies down a notch, since again, their lack of balance caught up with them, but they should still be in my top 25; and since Miami actually showed an offense, I'll bump them back up.
Miami: STOCK UP
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN

Syracuse 38, #14 Louisville 35
???!?!?!? I watched this game, and this happened, but, um, what? Louisville's offense was actually still pretty great, particularly QB Brian Brohm, who had 555 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 69% passing. But Louisville's defense allowed the Syracuse offense to have a Madden-tastic day; there were many moments when it looked like Louisville had switched to the wrong defender, allowing Syracuse to break one for a bunch of yards after catch. Cuse QB Andrew Robinson fumbled two snaps, including one on what would've been the game-sealing drive late, but he acquitted himself with a pretty insane day passing, going 17/26 for 423 yards and 4 TD. Louisville obviously gets knocked down because oh my god, that defense is "Notre Dame offense" bad, while I'll give Syracuse a slight nudge up; they ARE playing this defense and all, but either way the offense is showing signs of life, which as a Connecticut fan, slightly worries me.
Syracuse: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

#16 Virginia Tech 44, William & Mary 3
VT had 3 field goals, a defensive TD, and a return TD, so the yardage was actually fairly even, but, yeah, Hokies should've won this one and they did.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL

#17 Missouri 38, Illinois State 17
Much more statistically impressive than the VT game, but still, nothing to see here.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL

#18 Arizona State 44, Oregon State 32
A mixed bag with the Sun Devils here, as OSU actually had the yardage edge. The Beavers actually stuck with one QB too, and while Sean Canfield had 58% passing and 324 yards, he only had 2 TD versus 5 interceptions. RB Yvenson Bernard had a better day, though, running for 128 and a score. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter was the star of their offense, going 25/36 for 361 and a 4/1 ratio. The Sun Devils are the best of the glut near the middle of the Pac 10, rather than up there with USC and Oregon, and I'll keep them steady; I'll also nudge Oregon State up for actually sticking with one QB - they should be better down the stretch than they've been so far.
Arizona State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oregon State: STOCK UP

#19 South Florida 37, North Carolina 10
USF just absolutely shut down UNC here. Matt Grothe had the only impressive individual line for the Bulls, completing 57% for 230 and a score, which sure as hell beats things on the UNC side. Heels QB TJ Yates looked better against UVA, but that was completely undone here, as he only completed 41% for 85 yards and an 0/4 TD/INT ratio. Ew. I'll pump USF up a notch as they come off more like a deserving top 25 team than one there by attrition now, and UNC is still a year or two away.
South Florida: STOCK UP
North Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL

#20 Clemson 42, NC State 20
Outstandingly one-sided. Clemson's running back duo came back with a vengeance, as James Davis had 166 yards and a TD while C.J. Spiller added 114 yards and a score of his own. QB Cullen Harper also did quite well, completing 64% for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. As for things on the NCSU side, there isn't much to say as the Wolfpack barely cracked 200 yards. QB Harrison Beck was knocked out early, and last year's starter, Daniel Evans, was fairly decent, going 16/25 for 123 and a 1/1 ratio. So that's something. I'll keep both teams steady for the time being.
Clemson: STOCK NEUTRAL
NC State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#21 Hawaii 66, Charleston Southern 10
Colt Brennan missed the game, but it didn't matter, outside of probably hurting his Heisman chances. Backup Tyler Graunke had some INTs that Brennan probably wouldn't have, but other than that, business as usual.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL

#23 California 45, Arizona 27
Well, that wasn't an upset, even if Arizona was the latest team to exploit the Cal secondary, with Willie Tuitama throwing for 309 yards on 69% passing, even if he only had a 1/2 ratio. Cal QB Nate Longshore was slightly less impressive, completing only 53% for 235 and a 1/1 ratio. Still, he had something helping him out that Tuitama didn't: a running game, as Cal's Justin Forsett ran for 117 and 2 scores. Arizona is still going through growing pains and an outside shot to make .500, while I'll harp on the same thing with Cal that I always do: that secondary is going to get torched and lead them to a loss.
California: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK NEUTRAL

#24 Boston College 37, Army 17
Yawn. BC just smacked the crap out of Army like they should've. QB Matt Ryan had excellent peripherals, but someone of his hype shouldn't have thrown 2 picks here. The Eagles remain a very good, very overrated team.
Boston College: STOCK NEUTRAL
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL

#25 Nebraska 41, Ball State 40
BSU actually outgained the Huskers 610-552; I figured they'd be able to exploit the Nebraska D, but not to that extent. BSU's Nate Davis and Nebraska's Sam Keller had about even counting stats, with equal 3/1 ratios and 422 and 438 yards, respectively, but Keller had a 78% completion percentage to Davis's 61. Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis was the revelation here, going for 122 and a TD on 19 carries. Nebraska's defense is worse than I thought, so they get a nudge down. Ball State gets a move up, since they now seem to be in the upper tier of the MAC; still, with the MAC being so even, who knows both what that's worth and how long that'll last.
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
Ball State: STOCK UP

Brigham Young 31, Air Force 6
Pretty much a bitchslapping, as while Air Force's pass/run ratio was fairly even, that's because neither was that productive. Oddly, my opinion of either team doesn't really change - AFA is Navy-esque dangerous-if-not-overly-talented, and BYU is one of those teams that can win a shootout with anyone.
Brigham Young: STOCK NEUTRAL
Air Force: STOCK NEUTRAL

Kentucky 42, Arkansas 29
This hurts Arkansas more than serves as any sort of vindication for UK, at least in my eyes. Andre' Woodson is in fact a good QB (even if he'll be taken much too high in the NFL draft), even if he surprisingly only completed 54% en route to 265 yards and 2 TD. And Arkansas's offense also had something unsurprising, in that the Razorback running backs had a field day, with McFadden going for 173 yards and a TD, and Felix Jones adding 133 yards on an obscene 11.1 yards per carry. But the big thing here is, holy crap, just how awful Arkansas QB Casey Dick is. He had 157 yards, but couldn't complete half his passes, and had an 0/2 TD/INT ratio. Against KENTUCKY. KENTUCKY! Just pathetic. Arkansas no longer seems like a team that McFadden and Jones can carry to victory, but one that will attempt to lose in spite of them. Bah.
Kentucky: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN

Tennessee 48, Arkansas State 27
ASU QB Corey Leonard was unable to exploit this secondary, throwing for only 199 and a 1/2 ratio. Still, RB Reggie Arnold had a good day for the Indians, going for 130 and a score. As for Tennessee, it was all Erik Ainge all the time, as the Vols QB completed 69% en route to 334 and a 4/1 ratio. Good for him.
Tennessee: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arkansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Auburn 55, New Mexico State 20
NMSU QB Chase Holbrook had excellent peripherals, completing 73% for 254 yards, but only had a 2/3 ratio. Brandon Cox actually had a good game as a caretaker, going 13/19 for 135 and a score, allow backs Ben Tate and Mario Fannin to each run for 100 yards. Really, this was the type of game Auburn fans expected them to have week in and week out, so I'll bump them up just a slight tad - of course, now they have to do it against SEC teams rather than New Mexico State.
Auburn: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Central Florida 56, Memphis 20
UCF absolutely smoking Memphis is pretty impressive, and Knights RB Kevin Smith is one of those mid-major Heisman darkhorses, adding to his resume with another 124 yards and 3 TD here. I'll keep both teams even, although I'm getting more and more bullish on UCF.
Central Florida: STOCK NEUTRAL
Memphis: STOCK NEUTRAL

North Dakota State 44, Central Michigan 14
CMU put up some offense, but NDSU scored at will. Everyone point and laugh!
Central Michigan: STOCK DOWN

Cincinnati 40, Marshall 14
The Bearcats played like the team people seem to think they are, pretty much shredding the Marshall secondary and putting a beatdown, rather than just taking advantage of turnovers. Ranking them this early is a bit much, since again, those unsustainable turnover rates have made their wins more impressive, but they're getting there.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Marshall: STOCK NEUTRAL

Colorado 42, Miami of Ohio 0
CU outgained the RedHawks 634-139, which about covers it. Just so impressive that I had to note. I've kept my opinion of CU pretty steady since bumping them up after the CSU win, but I'll knock MOH down a notch.
Colorado: STOCK NEUTRAL
Miami of Ohio: STOCK DOWN

Houston 38, Colorado State 27
Houston RB Anthony Alridge only had 4.1 YPC, so it looks like the dream of a 10 average is over. Houston's offense just outplayed CSU's, but Colorado State is probably the best 0-3 team out there, as they have a very good QB, a very good RB, and a fine enough defense. They've just had the bad luck of losing to Colorado in OT and then facing two top offenses in Cal and Houston.
Houston: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Connecticut 34, Pittsburgh 14
Frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick finally made his debut, and it was actually a good one, and he completed 66% of his passes for 230 yards; unfortunately, he only threw 1 touchdown relative to 3 interceptions. And honestly, that was pretty much the difference, as one of those picks was returned for a TD, and UConn really didn't do much of anything on offense. Huskies QB Tyler Lorenzen was especially disappointing, completing only 12 of his 25 passes. A good win in terms or prestige, but amazingly uninspiring in terms of actual performance. UConn somehow got 3 AP votes this week, which made me laugh; after all, we've only beat Pitt, Duke, Maine, and Temple. The frightening thing, as I've said, is that the Huskies should still beat Akron next week, and have a chance against Virginia to guarantee at least a .500 record. And, God, maybe they'll get ranked. Plus, with Syracuse on the schedule, UConn could actually have a 7-5 year, somehow. As for Pitt, Bostick's performance was a good sign, especially after the cavalcade of suck that was replacement Kevan Smith, but it's still probably gonna be a looong year.
Connecticut: STOCK NEUTRAL
Pittsburgh: STOCK NEUTRAL

Navy 46, Duke 43
SHOOTOUT! I'll bump Duke up a notch for being competitive in an offense-based contest, led by QB Thaddeus Lewis's 23/36, 428 yard, 4/1 ratio day.
Navy: STOCK NEUTRAL
Duke: STOCK UP

Virginia 28, Georgia Tech 23
Virginia finally played up to their preseason projections, as QB Jameel Sewell went from horrible to perfectly fine, going 16/25 for 177 and a TD. RB Cedric Peerman also had a good day, going for 138 and a score. GT looks like they were overrated early, and QB Taylor Bennett's performance was a classic example of counting stats overrating him, as while he had 230 and a 1/1 ratio, he only completed 42.5% of his passes. Virginia's getting its act together, finally, and GT's reputation is slipping, even if they could still do well in that wide-open ACC.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN

Northern Illinois 42, Idaho 35
Yes, Idaho had 423 yards passing. That pretty much nullifies NIU finally getting a win after losing to Eastern Michigan and I-AA Southern Illinois.
Northern Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Idaho: STOCK NEUTRAL

Illinois 27, Indiana 24
Illinois QB Juice Williams remains frustrating, as he only completed 46% en route to only 98 yards and a 2/2 ratio. Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall obviously carried the offense here, going for 214 and a TD. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis wasn't overly impressive either, but he did complete over half his passes (51%), and had 263 and a 2/1 ratio. This really could've gone either way, nothing's really changed with either team.
Illinois: STOCK NEUTRAL
Indiana: STOCK NEUTRAL

Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 14
UND actually gained 117 yards rushing, but any productivity by the Irish was mostly due to turnovers and field position. MSU's looked good against what's a fairly light schedule, so I'll keep them steady, but I'll actually nudge UND ever so slightly upwards, from "scorched earth in the wake of a nuclear holocaust" to, say, "scorched earth in the wake of a giant wildfire" since James Aldridge actually ran for 104 yards. That's something.
Michigan State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Notre Dame: STOCK UP

Oklahoma State 49, Texas Tech 45
Much like Louisville-Kentucky, this isn't really a sign of anything for either team, since, well, duh either could win in a shootout. OK State's 610 yards were actually somewhat balanced, while TTU's pass-heavy 718 yards led to QB Graham Harrell's insane line: 46/67, 646 yards, 5 TD. Yep.
Oklahoma State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Texas Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL

Tulane 35, Southeastern Louisiana 27
Figured I should mention Tulane RB Matt Forte's comical line: 40 carries, 303 yards, 5 TD.
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL

UCLA 44, Washington 31
The Bruins won this on the ground, with Chris Markey going for 193 yards and a TD on only 14 carries, and Kahlil Bell adding 109 and a score. Washington QB Jake Locker reminded everyone he is still a redshirt freshman, as he only completed 47%, albeit for a productive 216 yards and 4/2 ratio. UCLA's still an above-average team, but I'll back off on my early Washington love slightly for now.
UCLA: STOCK NEUTRAL
Washington: STOCK DOWN

UNLV 27, Utah 0
Well, that UCLA win was a fluke.
UNLV: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah: STOCK DOWN

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