Quick hits, since it's been a long weekend.
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
Monday, December 31, 2007
Sunday, December 30, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Independence Bowl
Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)
It's 2 AM, and I have my limits. Both these teams are about 6-6 good, both have decent offenses (kinda), and Alabama has the much better defense. And the locational advantage. This will be boring, the Tide will likely win.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 2
It's 2 AM, and I have my limits. Both these teams are about 6-6 good, both have decent offenses (kinda), and Alabama has the much better defense. And the locational advantage. This will be boring, the Tide will likely win.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 2
Friday, December 28, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Alamo Bowl
#25 Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)
This'll be quick. Penn State is good at everything, and could be an elite team if Anthony Morelli didn't often decide to be Anthony Morelli. Texas A&M was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year, but decided to eschew the excellent pass/run balance on offense that made them underrated last season for running the ball a lot for lots of yardage but little results, mostly thanks to an absolutely horrible secondary. So the million dollar question: Can Anthony Morelli blow it against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation? My answer: Probably, but the Penn State defense won't let him.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
This'll be quick. Penn State is good at everything, and could be an elite team if Anthony Morelli didn't often decide to be Anthony Morelli. Texas A&M was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year, but decided to eschew the excellent pass/run balance on offense that made them underrated last season for running the ball a lot for lots of yardage but little results, mostly thanks to an absolutely horrible secondary. So the million dollar question: Can Anthony Morelli blow it against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation? My answer: Probably, but the Penn State defense won't let him.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Liberty Bowl
Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
UCF is the unquestioned best team in C-USA, tearing through the conference on the back of stud RB Kevin Smith, who's about to break the single-season rushing record - enjoy it while it lasts, before the surely disappointing senior season hits. As for outside of the conference, who knows. They beat NC State and played Texas close in games that went, statistically, slightly worse than their scores, but turned around and got absolutely annihilated by South Florida. Luckily, Mississippi State seems to fall more in the NC State category among those teams - the Bulldogs had 4 close and/or slightly fluky SEC wins against Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss, and beat the out of conference juggernauts of Tulane, Gardner-Webb, and UAB (and even UAB was close.) On the plus side, their run defense is not horrible and they DID hold Darren McFadden to only 88 yards, and Kentucky may be better than UCF, so the Bulldogs could in fact luck into a win. But I wouldn't count on it.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
UCF is the unquestioned best team in C-USA, tearing through the conference on the back of stud RB Kevin Smith, who's about to break the single-season rushing record - enjoy it while it lasts, before the surely disappointing senior season hits. As for outside of the conference, who knows. They beat NC State and played Texas close in games that went, statistically, slightly worse than their scores, but turned around and got absolutely annihilated by South Florida. Luckily, Mississippi State seems to fall more in the NC State category among those teams - the Bulldogs had 4 close and/or slightly fluky SEC wins against Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss, and beat the out of conference juggernauts of Tulane, Gardner-Webb, and UAB (and even UAB was close.) On the plus side, their run defense is not horrible and they DID hold Darren McFadden to only 88 yards, and Kentucky may be better than UCF, so the Bulldogs could in fact luck into a win. But I wouldn't count on it.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Meineke Car Care Bowl
Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
WELCOME TO YOUR FUTURE, UCONN. This year's team that has a good season despite all statistical evidence otherwise meets last year's. UConn's not horrible or anything - they're much better than Syracuse - but in the Big East, they're probably the 6th best team in the conference max, maaaaaybe 5th, and I can't definitively put them ahead of everyone except the aforementioned Cuse. As for Wake, they're actually pretty nondescript - every game was close statistically or scorewise, save being completely destroyed by Clemson - they could always win, they could always lose. Statistically, despite being a lower-tier Big East team, UConn actually holds the edge in every yardage category except for run defense, where Wake is an excellent team - this is both a condemnation of the ACC and something that makes the game interesting, since Tyler Lorenzen is very much not a quarterback that can win a game by himself. I went into this thinking I'd pick Wake, thanks to UConn having such a fluke year and the homefield advantage (the game's in Charlotte), but Wake's no great shakes either and UConn actually holds most of the statistical edges. Based on both team's seasons, it'll almost assuredly be a close game, but I'll go with the statistically better team, and hey, a slight bit of bias doesn't hurt.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
WELCOME TO YOUR FUTURE, UCONN. This year's team that has a good season despite all statistical evidence otherwise meets last year's. UConn's not horrible or anything - they're much better than Syracuse - but in the Big East, they're probably the 6th best team in the conference max, maaaaaybe 5th, and I can't definitively put them ahead of everyone except the aforementioned Cuse. As for Wake, they're actually pretty nondescript - every game was close statistically or scorewise, save being completely destroyed by Clemson - they could always win, they could always lose. Statistically, despite being a lower-tier Big East team, UConn actually holds the edge in every yardage category except for run defense, where Wake is an excellent team - this is both a condemnation of the ACC and something that makes the game interesting, since Tyler Lorenzen is very much not a quarterback that can win a game by himself. I went into this thinking I'd pick Wake, thanks to UConn having such a fluke year and the homefield advantage (the game's in Charlotte), but Wake's no great shakes either and UConn actually holds most of the statistical edges. Based on both team's seasons, it'll almost assuredly be a close game, but I'll go with the statistically better team, and hey, a slight bit of bias doesn't hurt.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
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