THE CONSENSUS:
C-USA East:
1. Southern Miss (#41 overall - AT: #41, LN: #41, SN: #24, ST: #53)
2. Central Florida (#77 overall - AT: #62, LN: #91, SN: #69, ST: #84)
3. Marshall (#83 overall - AT: #73, LN: #92, SN: #77, ST: #92)
4. East Carolina (#89 overall - AT: #86, LN: #87, SN: #92, ST: #86)
5. Memphis (#95 overall - AT: #92, LN: #104, SN: #102, ST: #72)
6. UAB (#110 overall - AT: #107, LN: #107, SN: #110, ST: #117)
C-USA West:
1. Houston (#51 overall - AT: #56, LN: #39, SN: #42, ST: #69)
2. Tulsa (#60 overall - AT: #52, LN: #50, SN: #60, ST: #87)
3. SMU (#74t overall - AT: #69, LN: #65, SN: #75, ST: #88)
4. UTEP (#84 overall - AT: #95, LN: #67, SN: #93, ST: #83)
5. Rice (#99 overall - AT: #83, LN: #97, SN: #99, ST: #106)
6. Tulane (#109 overall - AT: #106, LN: #111, SN: #106, ST: #107)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
C-USA East:
1. Southern Miss
RB Damion Fletcher was a revelation as a freshman last year, and he'll pair up with freshman Antwain Easterling to form an extremely formidable 1-2 punch. The offensive line may be somewhat shaky, returning only the starting tackles, but senior QB Jeremy Young should improve upon last year's decent season. He'll also have all-CUSA TE Shawn Nelson to throw to. The defense, as usual, is the real star of the show, returning eight starters. The only weakness is the cornerbacks, where there's talent, but not experience. Still, the talent everywhere else on D is at the level where USM'll be more than fine. The Golden Eagles are solid on both sides of the ball, though much moreso on defense, and while they may be a tad overrated nationally (or just by The Sporting News), they have a good shot at a 10-win season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Central Florida
UCF was in a number of close games last year, and easily could've been bowl-eligible instead of 4-8. The offense was horribly unlucky in scoring vs. yardage, and should improve greatly with 8 starters returning. Senior QB Kyle Israel is not one of those returning starters, but he performed very well in spot duty last year, and should improve upon last year's numbers at the position. 2nd team all-CUSA RB Kevin Smith also returns behind a line that's the most experienced in the conference. Last year's poor defense should be very much improved, returning 9 starters, including 2005 all-CUSA CB Joe Burnett. While the Golden Knights have a tough out of conference schedule, regression to the mean should get them to bowl-eligibility; if they improve even more than expected, this could be the surprise team of the conference.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Memphis
Memphis returns 8 starters on each side of the ball, and thus should be way better than last year. The offense is also now in its second year in a new system, so returning seniors QB Martin Hankins and RB Joseph Doss should both improve from last year's average campaigns. And really, the same is true for an offensive line that was disappointing last season. The defense should see a similar improvement - two starters depart, and their spots should be filled by two talented transfers from the SEC - DT Freddie Barnett (Arkansas) and SS Tony Bell (Auburn). Memphis is a greatly improved team with more talent, a more stable coaching situation, and an easier schedule than last year. With an easy OOC slate and getting Marshall, ECU and SMU all at home, Memphis actually has a shot at inverting last year's 2-10 record and going 10-2. Either way, Memphis is probably the odds-on favorite to see the nation's biggest increase in wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
4. East Carolina
The key to ECU's offense will be the play at quarterback; four-year starter James Pinkney is gone, and sophomore Rob Kass takes over with very little experience (30 attempts for 184 yards and an INT). A much-improved offensive line should help him develop, at least after he's back from a suspension in the season opener. Play from the running backs should also be much improved, as the unit has struggled with injuries, and they bring in some talented freshmen. The defense, as it was last year, should be the strength of the team. Everyone in the front seven returns, as does senior CB Travis Williams. There are holes in the rest of the secondary, one of which will be filled by converted OLB Van Eskridge, but the unit has some upside, bringing in some very talented redshirt freshmen. The defense should be strong enough to keep the Pirates in their conference games, but it looks like a rebuilding year. Bowl eligibility isn't out of the question, especially if the QB play is decent, but a tough out of conference schedule (Virginia Tech, West Virginia, NC State) and drawing Houston out of the West makes it very far from a guarantee:
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-6 conference wins
5. Marshall
Senior QB Bernard Morris was disappointing last year, partly due to injuries; he should greatly improve upon last year's 8/12 TD/INT ratio. He'll benefit from a strong receiving corps that returns most of its talent, and brings in excellently-named JuCo WR Darius Passmore. The offensive line should be very strong, led by all-CUSA center Doug Legursky, but the running game will probably take a few steps back after the departure of NFL-caliber RB Ahmad Bradshaw. Last year's below-average defense should be much improved; seven starters return, led by all-CUSA DE Albert McClellan, and the departures are spread throughout the levels of the D. The one key should be health; outside of the defensive line, depth behind the projected starters seems fairly shaky. Marshall compares well to ECU, and faces much the same situation; a tough out of conference schedule (Miami, WVU, Cincinnati) and drawing Houston and Tulsa out of the West may put a damper on the bowl eligibility hopes of an improved team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
6. UAB
The Blazers return only 8 starters from what was just a plain old bad team last year, which isn't a good sign. Last year's offense was poor, and it seems like a rebuilding year with pretty much every unit. Senior Sam Hunt has beaten out sophomore Joseph Webb at the QB position, at least for the time being; new coach Neil Callaway is apparently considering using both in many different places on the field, such as wide receiver. Speaking of, most of last year's top receivers are gone, but there is some starting experience here and there; the leading target should be converted QB Sylvester Mencer. The offensive line should have a transition year as well, as only two starters return to learn a new system. Every running back of note also leaves, though things may improve there with the addition of Alabama transfer Aaron Johns. On defense, things may stay somewhat stable; 3rd team all-CUSA LB Joe Henderson should be a bright spot, and two starters return, along with other starting experience, in the secondary. The defensive line was mostly gutted, however. This is a rebuilding year if there ever was one; at the very least, UAB should be able to get a win against Alcorn State, and may be able to beat Tulane at home.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
C-USA West:
1. Houston
The Cougars had the #7 offense in the nation last year, and while it may not repeat that rank, it should still be in the upper handful of the country. NFL-caliber QB Kevin Kolb departs after four years as a starter, and while the new starter (either sophomore Blake Joseph or redshirt frosh Case Keenum) may not match Kolb's superlative 2006 stat line, the position should still be a strength. An offensive line that should once again be strong will lead the way for senior RB Anthony Alridge, who, while not the starter last year, averaged an insane 10.1 yards on his 95 carries. A decent defense last year should at least hold steady. Lots of experience returns in the front seven, and things should be helped by LB transfers Stephen James (Oklahoma State) and James Francis (Baylor). And while only two of last year's starters return in the secondary, the team gets back SS Rocky Schwartz, who was one of the defense's best players in 2005. Even with Kolb's graduation, the offense still puts Houston in the C-USA's elite. They should easily be able to get to bowl-eligibility in conference play, but wins at Oregon or Alabama are pretty much out of the question, having to break in a new QB.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-10 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Tulsa
Even with the addition of last year's Arkansas OC, Gus Malzahn, Tulsa may be a more defense-oriented team this season, returning 6 starters on that side of the ball versus the offense's 4. That's not to say the offense will completely fall apart after last year's top-20 finish; QB Paul Smith and RB Courtney Tennial are seniors among the best at their position in the conference. Still, the receiving corps are fairly bare, and the offensive line is an even bigger concern, with only one starter returning and having to learn Malzahn's system. Last year's defense, also a top-20 unit, also faces some regression, but probably less so than the offense. The probably have to do more with who they lose rather than who's there; talented players, often with experience, are taking over the open positions, but the players leaving were some of Tulsa's best, such as LB Nick Bunting and FS Bobby Blackshire. Still, the defense should remain above-average, and all-CUSA MLB Nelson Coleman returning is a plus. The transition to Malzahn's offense is the main concern here, but again, the offense has enough talent to keep things humming along fairly well. It's a transition year, but Tulsa should be able to make a bowl once again.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. UTEP
A very good team with two major question marks, in QB and the defensive line. 8 starters return from an above-average offense last year, including the entire starting offensive line, which should result in a much-improved year from senior RB Marcus Thomas. And while the receiving corps loses its top two starters, including NFL-caliber Johnnie Lee Higgins, the position may actually be improved, due to the addition of Fred Rouse, a very highly talented transfer from Florida State. That leaves the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman Trevor Vittatoe and part-time WR/Florida State transfer Lorne Sam will split snaps. While Vittatoe may be worthwhile, I'm pretty skeptical of this idea. Although, again, he also had duties at WR and RB, Sam only went 1/6 for a TD and an INT last year; while he should obviously improve on that, I'm not sure rotating QBs is a better idea than just letting Vittatoe take his lumps and develop. At the very least, the defense should be much improved. Again, the defensive line is the main concern, as almost nobody returns and the unit is heavy on JuCo transfers. Still, the linebacking corps returns two starters and brings in Arizona State transfer Adam Vincent, while the secondary should improve with the benefit of what's probably the CUSA top duo of safeties: all-CUSA FS Quintin Demps and all-CUSA frosh team SS Braxton Amy. The QB situation probably limits the Miners' upside for the season, but unless the position becomes a complete disaster, there's enough here to make it to bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
4. SMU
QB Justin Willis returns after an insanely great freshman campaign, and while he may not repeat those numbers, he should lead an offense. The offensive line returns four starters and their entire 2nd string, which should help what was a horribly disappointing rushing attack; is starting RB DeMyron Martin remains healthy, he should more than double last year's 369 yards. Still, SMU scored about a touchdown more than their yardage suggests, so while the level of play should definitely improve, their scoring may take a small step back. On defense, SMU has one of the best linebacking corps in the conference, returning three senior starters. Though the defensive line and secondary lose three and two starters, respectively, there's enough experience (moreso in the latter) that things should remain close to last year's levels. There's a lot of parity in Conference USA, and SMU draws winnable games with UTEP, Tulane, Rice, and Central Florida at home. If the Mustangs can sweep those, two winnable OOC games means this could be the season SMU finally returns to a bowl. However, there's little room for error.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
5. Rice
Rice had a complete "what the fuck?" season last year, as one of the most hapless programs in recent history changed coaches, ditched the wishbone for a spread offense, which normally takes 3 or so years to work if it even does, and promptly went from 1-10 to 7-5. Still, this projected out to about a 3-9 team last year, and they're now on their third system in three years under new head coach David Bailiff. While QB Chase Clement isn't an elite QB, he's more than capable of allowing WR Jarett Dillard to put up huge numbers. Dillard broke out in a huge way last year, catching 21 TDs en route to earning 2nd team all-American honors. That may be the only reason for optimism on offense though, as while the offensive line is experienced, they change systems AGAIN, and the running stats should be hurt by the graduation of Quinton Smith. The defense was pretty horrible last year, and while they should be improved, that probably means just to "bad." All three starting linebackers return, as do both starting corners, but the defensive line is a huge question mark after DE George Chukwu. Clement-to-Dillard should continue to be fun to watch, but the Owls fall back to earth this year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
6. Tulane
Tulane was bad on defense and average but unlucky on offense last year, and with only 5 starters returning on the latter, they probably won't be able to benefit from regression to the mean. RB Matt Forte should be the star of the show, running behind a decent offensive line, as the passing game should take a hit with the graduation of QB Lester Ricard. Things look better on the defensive side of the ball; six of the starting front seven return, and both starting safeties come back alongside some corners with experience. With most of Tulane's winnable games on the road, the schedule pays them no favors; this is an obvious rebuilding year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
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Well said.
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