Thursday, November 08, 2007

Week 11 Preview: Saturday

12:00 PM

#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3

#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4

#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5

Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1

Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1

Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3

Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1

North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1


12:30 PM

Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3

#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3

Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1

Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1

Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3


1:00 PM

Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2


2:00 PM

#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1


2:30 PM

Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1


3:00 PM

Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5

Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3

Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1

Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1


3:30 PM

#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4

#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3

#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1

Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1

Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2

#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1

Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1

Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2


4:00 PM

Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2

Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3

Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4

New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1


4:30 PM

East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2

Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1


5:00 PM

Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3

Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4


6:30 PM

Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5

Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2


7:00 PM

UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2


7:15 PM

Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1


7:30 PM

Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4


7:45 PM

#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2


8:00 PM

Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5

#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2

#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2

#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2


10:15 PM

Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2


11:00 PM

Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2

San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2

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