Week 12 Recap

Why yes, I am proud of myself for calling the Oregon and Oklahoma upsets. :).

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#1 LSU 41, Mississippi 24
On the negative side, Ole Miss outgained LSU 478-415. On the plus side, nobody for Ole Miss was really all that productive - QB Brent Schaeffer only completed 45% of his passes, and also led the team in rushing with only 90 yards. As for LSU, well, Matt Flynn was efficient (68%), and the Tigers went with their usual RB-by-committee approach. I'll knock LSU down a bit, since they really shouldn't be an undisputed #1 with how they've been skating by at points. And good for Ole Miss's offense for showing some signs of life.
LSU: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi: STOCK UP

Arizona 34, #2 Oregon 24
Not all that shocking - heck, I predicted it. And it wasn't really an AWFUL performance by Oregon; they held Arizona to only 56 yards rushing, gained 463 yards of their own, and the Wildcats needed a pick six and a return TD to win it. And Jonathan Stewart had 131 yards rushing. Still, Oregon gets knocked down for the obvious reason - the loss of QB Dennis Dixon for the year. Dixon wasn't quite as elite as his press would make you think, but he was a hell of a lot better than Brady Leaf, who only completed 48% for 163 and 2 picks in relief. Sad to see things take this turn for the Ducks. As for Arizona, I'll keep them steady - I've been bumping them up recently, and this wasn't the type of overwhelming performance that makes me like them any further. They're just a solid team.
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK DOWN

#3 West Virginia 28, #22 Cincinnati 23
Cincy got their 3 turnovers, but gave up 2, so it was essentially a wash, like most of the game. Pat White was a bit of a conundrum here - he had 139 yards on 68% passing, and had 155 and 2 TD on the ground, but he also threw a pick and fumbled it twice. Cincy's Ben Mauk essentially was the entire offense, with 323 and 2 TD on 56% passing, but WVU just ran it and ran it and ran it. And the Mountaineers once again shut down the run. Really a legitimizing game for Mauk and to an extent Cincy than anything else - WVU's still an elite team.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati: STOCK UP

#4 Ohio State 14, #12 Michigan 3
Just depressing. Michigan did nothing. Less than nothing. Mario Manningham had a bunch of crucial drops. Mike Hart, who was probably the most dependable, consistent back during his career than anyone else in the nation, also probably had the worst game of his career - 18 carries for only 41 yards. And Chad Henne was pretty awful while playing injured too - only 71 yards on 32.4% passing. OSU QB Todd Boeckman was only mediocre, but that didn't matter - RB Chris Wells gashed the Wolverines again, this year for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just a depressing end to see for a Michigan era - the touted seniors go 0-4 against OSU, go out on probably the worst performances of their respective careers, and Lloyd Carr proves all the criticisms about him right and then some. They better win that bowl game.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Michigan: STOCK DOWN

#5 Missouri 49, Kansas State 32
A pretty even game, actually - the difference for Mizzou was mostly thanks to return TDs off a kickoff and a blocked punt. Still, the KSU defense did little to stop Chase Daniel, who completed 68% for 284 and 4 touchdowns. Of course, Mizzou's own defense was overly great, as KSU's Josh Freeman's line was only slightly inferior - 63%, 255 yards, and a 2/1 ratio. And the Wildcats had the better running game, as James Johnson gained 174 and a TD. Missouri's status reminds me a lot of Oregon; they're obviously one of the top teams in their conference, but any team that's solid or better could easily take them down.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Kansas State: STOCK STEADY

Texas Tech 34, #6 Oklahoma 27
Sam Bradford's injury early was obviously the difference, especially since OU made it so close in the end. Texas Tech, as usual, passed for a bunch of yards, and exploited that vulnerable OU D. Oklahoma wasn't a very elite team, so this upset is pretty unsurprising, but I'm still knocking the Sooners down a bit thanks to injury questions about Bradford and stud RB DeMarco Murray, who was carried off late after slipping and falling during the game's final onside kick.
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN

#8 Georgia 24, #21 Kentucky 13
A bit of an odd game, as Georgia only outgained Kentucky by 1 yard, didn't stop Andre' Woodson much at all (57%, 270, 1/1 ratio), and gave up 4 turnovers to Kentucky's 1, but still won fairly easily. The Bulldogs did shut down the running game though, holding UK to only 23 on the ground. Matt Stafford wasn't very good (55%, 100, 2 INT), but, as usual, the running game bailed him out, led by Knowshon Moreno's 134 yards. This game doesn't mean much as far as the perception of either team - they both performed roughly how you'd expect.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK STEADY

#9 Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 34
Well, holy shit. Badgers RB Zach Brown had 250 and 2 yards, but even if QB Tyler Donovan threw only 13 passes, completing less than 50% (6) is pretty horrible against this defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota QB Adam Weber was essentially the entire offense - he had 352 and a 3/2 ratio throwing, and accounting for 87 of the Gophers' 149 rushing yards. Uh...just really inexplicable. Wisconsin gets an obvious, obvious downgrade for allowing what's been such a horrible team to be so competitive.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota: STOCK UP

#10 Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 20
Tebow watch: 25/35 (71.4%), 338 yards, 3/1 ratio, 11 rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Seriously, he's like in NCAA Football 2004 when you'd get the top mobile QB in the nation and just run the entire offense through him. PRESS R2 AND GO!
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida Atlantic: STOCK STEADY

Michigan State 35, #11 Penn State 31
MORELLI'D! 46%, 190 yards, TD. Not quite the obvious implosion he usually had, but still a very bad game. The PSU run D held (147 yards allowed), but MSU QB Brian Hoyer decided to just be absolutely great: 16/21 (76%), 256 yards, and a 4/2 ratio. Well then. Obviously, Penn State gets a knock down and Michigan State gets nudged up with a legitimate QB.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN

#14 Kansas 45, Iowa State 7
Wow. Iowa State's a better team than their record, but the Jayhawks absolutely whipped ISU to the point where the Cyclones matched the perception of them. No particular KU running back did that much, but Todd Reesing completed an insane 81% for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. Just...wow. Kansas is definitely a legitimate upper-tier team, and I actually give them a chance against pretty much anyone.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK STEADY

#16 Virginia Tech 44, Miami 14
A similarly impressive win to that of Kansas. Miami's always gotten by on their running game and defense, and VT both put up 44 points and held Miami running backs to 14 yards. FOURTEEN. Miami QB Kyle Wright was the leading rusher with NINE. Just amazing.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN

#17 Illinois 41, Northwestern 22
Illinois ran for 330 yards, shock. While NW's defense is no great shakes, Juice Williams had another very good game passing - 217 yards on 65% passing, if only for a 1/1 ratio. Yep, they're legit.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Northwestern: STOCK STEADY

#18 South Florida 55, Louisville 17
Wow. I thought Louisville's D had turned the corner, but USF's Matt Grothe had 195 yards and a 2/1 ratio on 74% passing, and added 67 and a TD rushing. Oh, and running back Mike Ford added another 141 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm had his worst game in recently memory, if ever, completing only 48.6% for 211 and a 1/3 ratio. Just awful awful numbers, and an amazing, amazing performance by this USF pass defense. Just an absolutely huge statement game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

Boston College 20, #19 Clemson 17
BC's go-ahead TD to a wide open receiver, dropping their own go-ahead TD, just missing the tying FG - a loss just so perfectly...Clemson. Matt Ryan actually completed 66% en route to 315 and a 1/1 ratio, and God help us if that late TD supposedly affirms that he is HEISMANESQUE. As for the Clemson offense, Cullen Harper had a good game, but the running backs had a pretty disappointing night. Just really a perfect capsule of the season and the programs as a whole - BC was perfectly above-average and absolutely nothing else, while Clemson was just frustrating as hell in a loss.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Clemson: STOCK DOWN

#23 Boise State 58, Idaho 14
Seems about right. Just a complete blowout. Yep.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Idaho: STOCK STEADY

Washington 37, #24 California 23
The fuck? Though I guess that happens when you give up 335 rushing yards. Washington RB Louis Ranking had 224 and a TD, and Brandon Johnson added 120 and a TD more. While Cal QB Nate Longshore had an excellent game (71%, 236, 3/1 ratio), I think maybe, just maybe, Cal's run D is a liability.
Washington: STOCK UP
California: STOCK DOWN

#25 BYU 35, Wyoming 10
Wyoming's just absolutely imploding. They had only 9 yards rushing against an offense-based team. BYU's easily the best team in the conference, to the point where this says nothing about them.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN

Miami of Ohio 7, Akron 0
In my preview, I said this should be entertaining. Even if it kind of was in a trainwreck sort of way, I apologize immensely.
Miami of Ohio: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK DOWN

Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14
This was all due to 4 Tide turnovers, but karma's a bitch, innit? KINSMON LANCASTER! Man, this amuses me to no end. Is Saban fired yet?
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK UP
Alabama: STOCK DOWN

Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31
I have no idea whose passing defense is worse. On the one hand, Arkansas allowed MSU QB Wesley Carroll to have 421 yards on 57% passing, even if he only had a 4/4 ratio, which is...fairly amusing. On the other hand, MSU allowed CASEY DICK, yes CASEY DICK, to have a line of...sit down...14 of 17, 199 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I can now take neither of these teams seriously. Well, not that I really did before.
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi State: STOCK DOWN

Arkansas State 31, North Texas 27
Arkansas State actually had an offense here, as they'd looked horrible in Sun Belt play after playing very well against Texas and Tennessee out of conference. I'll give them a nudge up, although who knows if it's a one-time thing or the beginning of a resurgence.
Arkansas State: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY

Tulsa 49, Army 39
Tulsa giving up more points and yardage to Army than Houston is...fairly inexplicable. Stock down just for that, and I'll give Army a nudge for apparently having an offense?
Tulsa: STOCK DOWN
Army: STOCK UP

Central Florida 49, SMU 20
Kevin Smith watch: 22 carries, 179 yards, 3 TD, fumble.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
SMU: STOCK STEADY

Connecticut 30, Syracuse 7
CONNECTICUT OUTGAINS A BIG EAST OPPONENT! While I like Tyler Lorenzen as a perfectly fine caretaker on a running-oriented team, Cuse is so bad they made him look like a legitimate very good QB - 16/24, 213, and a TD.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY

Notre Dame 28, Duke 7
UND looked good here, so...good for them? Tom Zbikowski being put in as an option QB late in the game amused me, though.
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Duke: STOCK DOWN

Hawaii 28, Nevada 26
Their best win to date. Easily. I'll give them a bit of credit for it, but jeez, they just keep winning close, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK UP
Nevada: STOCK STEADY

Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19
And the Iowa offense cannot, in fact, be that great, even against a MAC defense. Western Michigan finally lived up to their preseason standards, too bad they waited until 3-7 to do so.
Western Michigan: STOCK UP
Iowa: STOCK DOWN

Utah State 35, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State continues emulating Hawaii in every way except for the wins. Pardon me while I shrug. Utah State gets a bump up for winning...somehow.
Utah State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK STEADY

Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
The yardage was about even, but Wazzou QB Alex Brink's line shows the difference in the game: 21/45 (27%), 314 yards, 6 INT. Well done, Alex Brink. Well done.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Washington State: STOCK DOWN

Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 16
Ew. One of those lose-lose games. Ray Rice had 110 and a TD, but he was a shining light in a black hole, as Mike Teel had a horrible 40% completion rate for 113 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Things for Pitt starter Pat Bostick weren't much better before he was pulled, as he had 41% for 77 and a 1/1 ratio. Oh, and Pitt only had 73 yards on the ground. Blech.
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN

Tulane 45, Rice 31
Matt Forte watch: 39 carries, 195 yards, 5 TD. I say he takes this week over Kevin Smith.
Tulane: STOCK STEADY
Rice: STOCK STEADY