Navy (8-4) vs. Utah (8-4)
Navy is what they always are - #1 in rushing offense, this year by over 50 yards per game, and somewhat suspect thanks to a weak schedule and a somewhat non-existent defense. They've been solid, but haven't really had a dominating win - they put up 74 on North Texas, but gave up 62 in the process, the Army game was much more close statistically than the 38-3 final score, and hell, they lost to Delaware. There's also the question of if the loss of coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will affect the team, but the immediate promotion of top assistant Ken Niumatalolo to the head spot should mitigate that somewhat, if not completely.
Utah's a confusing team. I thought of them pretty highly in the preseason, but they looked like one of the worst teams in the nation out of the gate, doing nothing against Oregon State, then looking bad against Air Force, although losing to the Falcons looked much worse then than now. They then proceeded to absolutely stomp UCLA, looking like they'd turned the corner, only to get shut out by UNLV. And then they went on a tear, winning their next seven games before losing to MWC champion BYU. But the thing is, very few of those wins were overly impressive, outside of shellacking of a Wyoming team that had already rolled over and died by that point in the season.
Ehhhh, Navy has a shot. Utah's probably not as impressive as that 8-4 record, and the Utes aren't very good on offense. Of course, to not be good on offense and have an 8-4 record, Utah logically has a top-tier defense statistically, and are very good against the run. Really, as with most Navy bowl games, it comes down to if the Midshipmen have the athletes to hang. And, as flawed as Utah is, I'm not so sure that they do.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence (out of 5): 2
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