Sorry, but I'm overworked, exhausted, and sick with something, so I'm just going to bang these out quick and hope I'm better tomorrow. Not that tomorrow's matchups are all that deserving of much attention:
THE PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)
USM pretty much played to their record, while Cincy is probably closer to 7-5ish - that offense is excellent, but their defense has been only decent yardage-wise while elite scoring-wise. So there should be some regression to the mean there. Cincy could easily win this in a blowout, but I'll call for the Golden Eagles to upset a slightly overrated team and sending out coach Jeff Bower in style.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 1
THE NEW MEXICO BOWL
Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)
Despite the homefield advantage, I think Nevada could win this one and make it ugly. The records should probably be reversed, as Nevada has an excellent offense and a defense that gave up more points than it statistically should've - plus UNM has a lethargic offense that will only be worse without RB Rodney Ferguson.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
THE LAS VEGAS BOWL
#20 BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6)
It's actually kind of a shame that BYU, after an excellent year, will have their bowl wasted on a team that may have only been 6-6 in the MWC themselves. Yawn.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4
Friday, December 21, 2007
Thursday, December 20, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The New Orleans Bowl
Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5)
Florida Atlantic's the surprise champion of the Sun Belt conference, earning their way here by beating Troy, who had dominated the league all year. The Owls are a bit of a conundrum - they have the upset win over Minnesota, which, even though it's Minnesota, is a Sun Belt team beating a BCS conference team, and FAU hung in there against South Florida in the middle of the season. But when you look at their conference games, outside of their season-opening win against Middle Tennessee State, all their wins weren't really that impressive. On the year statistically, there's not much inspiring there - the offense is pretty good, the defense is below-average. And hey, Miami architect (of the Hurricanes program, not an actual architect) Howard Schnellenberger is their coach - that's neat.
Memphis is even less inspiring. The Tigers actually have a top 25 offense, but a very poor defense, and that 7-5 record about says it all. They're a slightly above-average Conference USA team, better than the UABs, SMUs, and Marshalls of the conference, if not appreciably so most of the time. Martin Hankins is a solid quarterback, completing about 61% for 2939 yards on the year. Exciting stuff.
Troy winning the Sun Belt might've made this game more interesting, although the Trojans would likely project out to be a demonstratably better team than Memphis. As it is, I'm kind of down on FAU - a Sun Belt team really needs to be appreciably better than the rest of the conference, and the Owls aren't that. This could be a fun little shootout, but bank on Memphis being the one to put up more points.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence (out of 5): 3
Florida Atlantic's the surprise champion of the Sun Belt conference, earning their way here by beating Troy, who had dominated the league all year. The Owls are a bit of a conundrum - they have the upset win over Minnesota, which, even though it's Minnesota, is a Sun Belt team beating a BCS conference team, and FAU hung in there against South Florida in the middle of the season. But when you look at their conference games, outside of their season-opening win against Middle Tennessee State, all their wins weren't really that impressive. On the year statistically, there's not much inspiring there - the offense is pretty good, the defense is below-average. And hey, Miami architect (of the Hurricanes program, not an actual architect) Howard Schnellenberger is their coach - that's neat.
Memphis is even less inspiring. The Tigers actually have a top 25 offense, but a very poor defense, and that 7-5 record about says it all. They're a slightly above-average Conference USA team, better than the UABs, SMUs, and Marshalls of the conference, if not appreciably so most of the time. Martin Hankins is a solid quarterback, completing about 61% for 2939 yards on the year. Exciting stuff.
Troy winning the Sun Belt might've made this game more interesting, although the Trojans would likely project out to be a demonstratably better team than Memphis. As it is, I'm kind of down on FAU - a Sun Belt team really needs to be appreciably better than the rest of the conference, and the Owls aren't that. This could be a fun little shootout, but bank on Memphis being the one to put up more points.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence (out of 5): 3
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Poinsettia Bowl
Navy (8-4) vs. Utah (8-4)
Navy is what they always are - #1 in rushing offense, this year by over 50 yards per game, and somewhat suspect thanks to a weak schedule and a somewhat non-existent defense. They've been solid, but haven't really had a dominating win - they put up 74 on North Texas, but gave up 62 in the process, the Army game was much more close statistically than the 38-3 final score, and hell, they lost to Delaware. There's also the question of if the loss of coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will affect the team, but the immediate promotion of top assistant Ken Niumatalolo to the head spot should mitigate that somewhat, if not completely.
Utah's a confusing team. I thought of them pretty highly in the preseason, but they looked like one of the worst teams in the nation out of the gate, doing nothing against Oregon State, then looking bad against Air Force, although losing to the Falcons looked much worse then than now. They then proceeded to absolutely stomp UCLA, looking like they'd turned the corner, only to get shut out by UNLV. And then they went on a tear, winning their next seven games before losing to MWC champion BYU. But the thing is, very few of those wins were overly impressive, outside of shellacking of a Wyoming team that had already rolled over and died by that point in the season.
Ehhhh, Navy has a shot. Utah's probably not as impressive as that 8-4 record, and the Utes aren't very good on offense. Of course, to not be good on offense and have an 8-4 record, Utah logically has a top-tier defense statistically, and are very good against the run. Really, as with most Navy bowl games, it comes down to if the Midshipmen have the athletes to hang. And, as flawed as Utah is, I'm not so sure that they do.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Navy is what they always are - #1 in rushing offense, this year by over 50 yards per game, and somewhat suspect thanks to a weak schedule and a somewhat non-existent defense. They've been solid, but haven't really had a dominating win - they put up 74 on North Texas, but gave up 62 in the process, the Army game was much more close statistically than the 38-3 final score, and hell, they lost to Delaware. There's also the question of if the loss of coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will affect the team, but the immediate promotion of top assistant Ken Niumatalolo to the head spot should mitigate that somewhat, if not completely.
Utah's a confusing team. I thought of them pretty highly in the preseason, but they looked like one of the worst teams in the nation out of the gate, doing nothing against Oregon State, then looking bad against Air Force, although losing to the Falcons looked much worse then than now. They then proceeded to absolutely stomp UCLA, looking like they'd turned the corner, only to get shut out by UNLV. And then they went on a tear, winning their next seven games before losing to MWC champion BYU. But the thing is, very few of those wins were overly impressive, outside of shellacking of a Wyoming team that had already rolled over and died by that point in the season.
Ehhhh, Navy has a shot. Utah's probably not as impressive as that 8-4 record, and the Utes aren't very good on offense. Of course, to not be good on offense and have an 8-4 record, Utah logically has a top-tier defense statistically, and are very good against the run. Really, as with most Navy bowl games, it comes down to if the Midshipmen have the athletes to hang. And, as flawed as Utah is, I'm not so sure that they do.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Sunday, December 02, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Regular Season
#1 Ohio State (#2 LW)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)
Week 14 Recap
Pittsburgh 13, #1 West Virginia 9
Wow. The Pitt upset doesn't surprise me too much, since the Panthers were somewhat underrated, this is a rivalry game, and this is the 2007 football season. But still. Pitt winning a shootout I might've seen. Pitt slowing down the WVU offense a bit en route to putting up 28 or so points and ekeing out a win I definitely could've seen. But, Pat White injury or not, the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS being the team to not only stop the West Virginia offense, but hold it to only 183 yards? Inexplicable. Three turnovers, no Pat White, no excuse. This is a team that should always gain yardage by the bushel, and things weren't much better on the defensive side of things. Pitt QB Pat Bostick was awful, but that only serves to even MORESO ask why West Virginia wasn't able to contain LaSean McCoy - Pitt had no passing game, and West Virginia has had an excellent run defense all year. Again, Pitt was an underrated team, but with the way this game played out, this is nothing more than a season-, era-, and perhaps program-defining choke job.
Pittsburgh: STOCK STEADY
West Virginia: STOCK DOWN
#9 Oklahoma 38, #3 Missouri 17
Meh. Not as one-sided as the score would suggest, but Missouri just got nothing going. Oklahoma didn't bring their complete "A" game, but they did enough against a Missouri team that, again, didn't do much. Chase Daniel's 23/39, 219 yard, INT day was fine, but that's about all. And that's really the outline of the game - neither team brought their top game, Missouri was fine, OU was better than fine.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
#4 LSU 21, #25 Tennessee 14
Somewhat of a win/win game. LSU looked good - Jacob Hester ran for 120 yards, and the Tigers had 464 yards of total offense, plus they held Erik Ainge to 50% passing. And the Vols offense acquitted themselves well - while the Tigers D hasn't looked like the world-beating unit from the beginning of the year for quite some time, it's still very good, and Tennessee was able to move the ball. Really nothing that shouts out for any exceptional new insight.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee: STOCK STEADY
#5 USC 24, UCLA 7
A completely one-sided beatdown. UCLA tends to do that, so there's almost no point in trying to gain insight from this. UCLA is bad, USC might have been the best team in the nation the last couple of weeks.
USC: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
#6 Virginia Tech 30, #22 Boston College 16
Funnily enough, this was probably VT's worst game in recent weeks. Sean Glennon was efficient (18/27, 174, 3/1), but Tech wasn't able to get too much going on the ground. And while Matt Ryan had a pretty good completion rate and yardage, his 2 picks were killers. Everything was backwards day! So, yes - VT is rightfully the ACC champion (even if they may not be the national title-level team they're perceived as), and BC is rightfully pretty good, no more, no less.
Virginia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
#10 Arizona State 20, Arizona 17
It's a shame Arizona didn't catch a break this year, as they're an underrated team who deserved a bowl. This was a mostly pass-oriented game, as neither team got much going on the ground. ASU's not especially cooling off or especially overrated - the score's more of a result of, again, Arizona being underrated.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
#16 Hawaii 35, Washington 28
Colt Brennan had a vintage 2006 game - 42/50, 442, 5 TD - and his team needed it since Washington was very game. They just keep doing this, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK STEADY
Washington: STOCK UP
#20 BYU 48, San Diego State 27
SDSU's a fairly competitive team, and this was about the outclassing you'd expect. Pretty much nothing new in terms of insight to add - BYU's offense is very good, and the defense was fine if nothing too far in either direction.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
San Diego State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 44, Tulsa 25
Kevin Smith: 39 carries, 284 yards, 4 TD. And one of the quietest excellent seasons ever, as he's 19 yards away from the single-season yardage record. If he can make it through his senior season next year after all the carries he's had as a junior (another NCAA record), that'll be a fun ride. He's very good!
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Florida International 38, North Texas 19
THEY DID IT!
Florida International: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 38, Oregon 31 (2 OT)
Without Dennis Dixon, Oregon has now improved to completely mediocre.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK UP
Wow. The Pitt upset doesn't surprise me too much, since the Panthers were somewhat underrated, this is a rivalry game, and this is the 2007 football season. But still. Pitt winning a shootout I might've seen. Pitt slowing down the WVU offense a bit en route to putting up 28 or so points and ekeing out a win I definitely could've seen. But, Pat White injury or not, the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS being the team to not only stop the West Virginia offense, but hold it to only 183 yards? Inexplicable. Three turnovers, no Pat White, no excuse. This is a team that should always gain yardage by the bushel, and things weren't much better on the defensive side of things. Pitt QB Pat Bostick was awful, but that only serves to even MORESO ask why West Virginia wasn't able to contain LaSean McCoy - Pitt had no passing game, and West Virginia has had an excellent run defense all year. Again, Pitt was an underrated team, but with the way this game played out, this is nothing more than a season-, era-, and perhaps program-defining choke job.
Pittsburgh: STOCK STEADY
West Virginia: STOCK DOWN
#9 Oklahoma 38, #3 Missouri 17
Meh. Not as one-sided as the score would suggest, but Missouri just got nothing going. Oklahoma didn't bring their complete "A" game, but they did enough against a Missouri team that, again, didn't do much. Chase Daniel's 23/39, 219 yard, INT day was fine, but that's about all. And that's really the outline of the game - neither team brought their top game, Missouri was fine, OU was better than fine.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
#4 LSU 21, #25 Tennessee 14
Somewhat of a win/win game. LSU looked good - Jacob Hester ran for 120 yards, and the Tigers had 464 yards of total offense, plus they held Erik Ainge to 50% passing. And the Vols offense acquitted themselves well - while the Tigers D hasn't looked like the world-beating unit from the beginning of the year for quite some time, it's still very good, and Tennessee was able to move the ball. Really nothing that shouts out for any exceptional new insight.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee: STOCK STEADY
#5 USC 24, UCLA 7
A completely one-sided beatdown. UCLA tends to do that, so there's almost no point in trying to gain insight from this. UCLA is bad, USC might have been the best team in the nation the last couple of weeks.
USC: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
#6 Virginia Tech 30, #22 Boston College 16
Funnily enough, this was probably VT's worst game in recent weeks. Sean Glennon was efficient (18/27, 174, 3/1), but Tech wasn't able to get too much going on the ground. And while Matt Ryan had a pretty good completion rate and yardage, his 2 picks were killers. Everything was backwards day! So, yes - VT is rightfully the ACC champion (even if they may not be the national title-level team they're perceived as), and BC is rightfully pretty good, no more, no less.
Virginia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
#10 Arizona State 20, Arizona 17
It's a shame Arizona didn't catch a break this year, as they're an underrated team who deserved a bowl. This was a mostly pass-oriented game, as neither team got much going on the ground. ASU's not especially cooling off or especially overrated - the score's more of a result of, again, Arizona being underrated.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
#16 Hawaii 35, Washington 28
Colt Brennan had a vintage 2006 game - 42/50, 442, 5 TD - and his team needed it since Washington was very game. They just keep doing this, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK STEADY
Washington: STOCK UP
#20 BYU 48, San Diego State 27
SDSU's a fairly competitive team, and this was about the outclassing you'd expect. Pretty much nothing new in terms of insight to add - BYU's offense is very good, and the defense was fine if nothing too far in either direction.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
San Diego State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 44, Tulsa 25
Kevin Smith: 39 carries, 284 yards, 4 TD. And one of the quietest excellent seasons ever, as he's 19 yards away from the single-season yardage record. If he can make it through his senior season next year after all the carries he's had as a junior (another NCAA record), that'll be a fun ride. He's very good!
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Florida International 38, North Texas 19
THEY DID IT!
Florida International: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 38, Oregon 31 (2 OT)
Without Dennis Dixon, Oregon has now improved to completely mediocre.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK UP
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