Houston (10-3) vs. South Carolina (7-5)
Houston was one of the favorites in C-USA going into the season, and they lived up to it, winning the conference title. As usual under coach Art Briles, the Cougars did it behind the arm of QB Kevin Kolb, who threw for 3423 yards and a 27/3 TD/INT ratio. The Houston offense was somewhat stopped by Miami, being held to only 297 yards, but otherwise, they've been consistently high-powered, gaining 439.8 yards per game, good enough for #7 nationally. This isn't quite a Kentucky situation, either, as the Cougars allow about 339 yards per game, which while not great by any measure, is wholly decent.
South Carolina replaced coaching legend Lou Holtz with coaching legend Steve Spurrier before last season, and Spurrier's second year with the Gamecocks has been rougher than the first. The SC offense was actually grounded early in the year, not being able to crack 300 yards against either Mississippi State or Georgia, but things have gotten back on track, and all in all, Carolina's a fairly strong 7-5, with all 5 losses coming against teams that were then ranked in the top 12. SC's somewhat surprisingly low in yards per game, at "only" #28, but that's probably skewed by those first two games -- to end the year, the Gamecocks gained 412 against Florida, 545 against Middle Tennessee, and 491 against Clemson.
This should be a fun shootout. I have some concerns about Houston's strength of schedule, however; they had that inexplicable loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, and while losing close to Miami seemed impressive at the time, it looks quite a bit worse now. South Carolina's been hanging in there against every team since the Georgia game, and in the much tougher SEC, so I give the Gamecocks and the Ol' Ball Coach the edge.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence (out of 5): 2
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