Thursday, December 28, 2006

BOWLNANZA!: The Music City Bowl

Clemson (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

Clemson entered the season as a darkhorse pick for the ACC title, and a team with an outside chance at the national title picture. While it's been a good year, the Tigers haven't really delivered on any of those promises. Under Tommy Bowden, the Tigers have typically struggled early in the year, put Bowden on the hot seat, and finished the season on a winning streak. It's been quite the opposite this season. Clemson won 7 of their first 8 games, and would've won the 8th if not for a shanked XP or shanked FG. After obliterating Georgia Tech, it looked like the Tigers were the team to beat in the ACC. However, Clemson fell apart to end the season, being held to 172 yards against Virginia Tech, becoming the latest team that Maryland inexplicably beat, and holding on to beat NC State before falling to South Carolina in the season finale.

Kentucky was left for dead before this season. Head coach Rich Brooks was a questionable hire when he arrived, and he wasn't doing anything to change that perception. But behind QB Andre' Woodson and the #9 passing offense in the country, the Wildcats were able to earn a 7-5 record and a contract extension for Brooks. While the offense has been high-powered, well, so have opposing offenses. Kentucky gives up a whopping 457.7 yards per game, more than any team in I-A except Louisiana Tech. The Wildcats have given up 400 yards in 8 of their 11 games against I-A opponents, and 2 of the other 3 gained at least 390.

Kentucky's defense really prevents me from taking them seriously. The yardage numbers project them from about a 4-6 win team, with 7 being the absolute high end. Wins over Central Michigan, Vandy and Ole Miss were mostly the luck of turnovers, and their other I-A wins against Georgia, Mississippi State, and UL Monroe could've gone either way. There's some concern that Clemson's slipping, but facing a weak 7-5 like Kentucky that just struggled to beat Louisiana-Monroe more than nullifies that. Clemson's gained at least 360 yards in every game except the Virginia Tech one, and the Hokies are the #1 yardage defense in the country. Kentucky's #118, and I wouldn't be surprised if Clemson gained over 500 en route to a blowout.

My Pick: Clemson
Confidence (out of 5): 4

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