SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#16 Tennessee (3-1) @ Memphis (1-2)
Whoops, Mississippi is horrible, so Memphis hanging in with them doesn't look that good anymore. The Memphis offense may do something...maybe, but that defense isn't stopping the Vols.
The Pick: Tennessee
Confidence (out of 5): 4
Illinois (1-3) @ #23 Michigan State (3-1)
Normally, I'd worry about a MSU letdown. However, Illinois could not stop Syracuse.
The Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 4
Navy (3-1) @ Connecticut (2-1)
Sigh. Well, Bonislawski's in at QB, and as NC State showed, a team can get a boost off of a quarterback switch. And the UConn defense looked good against the run...of Indiana. Navy looks down this year, but they've still been imposing their will on opposing defenses. With UConn at home, this may be more bias and wishful thinking than anything, but...
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
(And for the record, with Hernandez, this would've been "Navy, 3")
Virginia (1-3) @ Duke (0-3)
Virginia isn't THAT bad. I think. Actually, Duke could win this. But it's still Duke.
The Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 2
Wisconsin (3-1) @ Indiana (2-2)
After seeing Indiana in action against UConn, hoo boy. Awful awful awful awful. Wisconsin looks to at least be decent, and decent is more than enough here.
The Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 3
Toledo (2-2) @ Pittsburgh (3-1)
Toledo seems to mediocre at this point of the year, beating only McNeese State and a Kansas team that doesn't look all that improved. Pitt seems legit, but any Wannstedt-coached team still makes me nervous.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Colorado (0-4) @ Missouri (4-0)
Missouri's probably not 4-0 good, but Colorado...definitely isn't. Even if the Georgia game was Colorado turning the corner, they're probably not at the point where they can win at Missouri yet.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Sam Houston State @ #6 Texas (3-1)
Yep.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
Mississippi State (1-3) @ #8 LSU (3-1)
Mississippi State is horrible. Even if the bad LSU shows up, there's still no intrigue here.
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
Maine @ Boston College (3-1)
Okay, hopefully HERE BC gets their definite solid win.
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
1:30 PM
Wyoming (1-3) @ Syracuse (2-2)
Syracuse actually seems to have an offense now. Against Illinois and Miami of Ohio, at any rate. Wyoming's defense doesn't seem much better, even if they've hung in there with Boise State, Syracuse, and...Virginia. Anyway, Wyoming has a chance, if only because it's Syracuse, but the Orange actually seems improved. Cautious optimism!
The Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
New Mexico (2-2) @ Air Force (1-1)
Air Force actually looks pretty good, running all over Wyoming and the big almost-win at Tennessee. UNM seems to have gotten over their week 1 loss to Portland State. The Lobos beat a pretty good UTEP team at home last week, but I'm not sure if they can beat a team that looks about as good on the road.
The Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 1
Akron (2-2) @ Kent State (2-2)
Ohhhh Jesus. Kent's a surprise, but Akron's NCSU win and loss at CMU look better than Kent's wins at down BGSU and Miami of Ohio teams. Plus Kent lost to Army. Akron could still lose due to homefield advantage and general MACtacular wackiness, but I'm picking the Zips since they're the better team.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Bowling Green (2-2) @ Ohio (2-2)
BGSU looked great in wins against FIU and Buffalo, and then shit the bed against Kent State. Ohio had that weird fluky win against Northern Illinois, and then lost badly to now-ranked Missouri and Rutgers teams. I'll give Ohio the benefit of the doubt at home, but I don't think either team's going anywhere this year.
The Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#24 Alabama (3-1) @ #3 Florida (4-0)
A very intriguing matchup right here. Alabama looks well-rounded, but each individual unit is probably worse than Florida's. I like Alabama as a darkhorse, pretty much the Clemson of the SEC, but I can't pick the upset at Florida.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Purdue (4-0) @ #18 Notre Dame (3-1)
Notre Dame as horribly overrated as Purdue's been horribly lucky. I doubt the Purdue defense will be able to stop that offense. Notre Dame probably won't be able to stop Purdue that much either, but UND just has more firepower.
The Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 3
3:00 PM
#11 California (3-1) @ Oregon State (2-1)
Cal's legit! Now watch them probably lose after I said that. Oregon State's probably improved, but wins over Eastern Washington and Idaho don't convince me they can beat Cal.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3
#21 Boise State (4-0) @ Utah (3-1)
Utah looked bad at UCLA, but whomped the shit out of Northern Arizona, Utah State, and San Diego State. However, only the third is really even moderately impressive. Boise State's been an offensive monster at home, but only won 17-10 in their lone road game at Wyoming. I think Boise's offense is as good as anyone's (I think that's the third time I've said that), but I smell upset.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 1
Stanford (0-4) @ UCLA (2-1)
I've pretty much given up on Stanford.
The Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Idaho (1-3) @ Utah State (0-4)
Idaho looks improved, but still really isn't that good. I thought USU could be a sleeper in the WAC, but the Aggies have only scored one touchdown this season. And it was an interception return. Oof. Idaho hasn't been much better, so I could see an "upset" at USU, but Utah State's pretty much just been pathetic.
The Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#10 Oregon (3-0) @ Arizona State (3-1)
Oh Arizona State, you're just not that good. Oregon's defense is suspect, but ASU's is just as, if not...suspecter.
The Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
#22 Georgia Tech (3-1) @ #19 Virginia Tech (4-0)
VT's played a shit schedule, so I'm not buying into them yet. Calvin Johnson > Joe Dailey, probably even as a quarterback.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Rice (0-4) @ Army (2-2)
Rice has some motivation here and they've looked improved if still Rice. Army's somewhat on a roll, losing close at TAMU and beating Kent and Baylor, but I don't think Rice will let themselves lose this one.
The Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
Miami of Ohio (0-4) @ Cincinnati (1-3)
I didn't realize the RedHawks had lost every game, but Miami of Ohio is obviously having a down year. Cincinnati's hung in there against tough competition, and they've probably looked like the better team this year.
The Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 2
Northwestern (2-2) @ Penn State (2-2)
NW's annoyingly inconsistent. PSU seems way down this year, but they still look good enough to beat teams like this, especially at home.
The Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Texas Tech (3-1) @ Texas A&M (4-0)
TAMU's played such a weak schedule that who knows how good they are. I don't think they're that good, though. Tech still doesn't have that defense, but they still have that offense.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
Liberty @ Wake Forest (4-0)
Wake'll be ranked next week, won't they?
The Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (0-4) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (1-2)
What a weird game. Sun Belt team's a Sun Belt, though, and I think EMU's better than that record. DESLAURIERS!
The Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Arkansas State (1-2) @ Florida International (0-4)
FIU's had some hard luck, but Arkansas State has a running game. And a pretty good safety. I'd think talent would outweigh being due, although this is the Sun Belt.
The Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Ball State (1-3)
Ball State's loss to North Dakota State officially has me off the bandwagon. Plus the lack of a secondary. Garrett Wolfe could run for 200, but if they line him up as a receiver, he could have 400.
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 3
Central Michigan (2-2) @ Kentucky (2-2)
Two teams that look improved this year, although in Kentucky's case I doubt it'll matter much in the SEC pecking order. I'd say they're about even, but Kentucky's at home, and a bottom-of-the-middle-tier SEC team is probably better than a middle of the road SEC team in their backyard.
The Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 2
Houston (4-0) @ Miami (1-2)
I think it says enough about how Miami's fallen that I think the upset can happen. However, with their backs against the wall, I think the Canes should be able to beat a Houston team I'm still kind of skeptical about.
The Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (0-3) @ San Jose State (2-1)
SJSU's improved, but that Stanford win looks a lot less impressive now. SDSU's taken awhile to get on track under new coach Chuck Long, but I think it starts here.
The Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#1 USC (3-0) @ Washington State (3-1)
Wazzou may hang in there for a while. Maybe.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Louisiana Tech (1-2) @ #15 Clemson (3-1)
Clemson's as good as anyone, pretty much. Louisiana Tech's as bad as anyone, pretty much.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 5
Kansas (3-1) @ #17 Nebraska (3-1)
Kansas isn't there yet. Their first starting QB, redshirt frosh Kerry Meier, was an interception machine, and current starter Adam Barmann led them to a loss against South Florida. Nebraska's looked good against bad competition, and should keep up their winning ways here.
The Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3
Florida Atlantic (0-4) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-2)
FAU has delivered on preseason expectations. Unfortunately, FAU was expected to be one of the worst teams in the country.
The Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Northern Iowa @ Iowa State (2-2)
The Cyclones could be able to challenge Nebraska for Big 12 North supremacy. Yep.
The Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 4
Middle Tennessee State (2-2) @ North Texas (1-3)
God, the most impressive win here is probably UNT beating SMU. MTSU was a preseason Sun Belt favorite, but hasn't looked impressive in any of their I-A games. And North Texas is 1-0 at home!
The Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
Temple (0-4) @ Vanderbilt (1-3)
TEMPLE IS SO BAD
The Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 4
Troy (1-3) @ UAB (1-3)
A hard one to figure out. Troy retooled their offense, they've looked alright, and there was the FSU almost-upset. UAB looked much-improved, and then went and lost to Mississippi State. The loss was still kinda close, despite UAB only gaining 192 yards, and they're at home, so why not.
The Pick: UAB
Confidence: 1
7:05 PM
Kansas State (3-1) @ Baylor (1-3)
My faith in Baylor is lost. However, KSU isn't very good.
The Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#2 Michigan (4-0) @ Minnesota (2-2)
Minnesota lost to Purdue, and Michigan can stop the run. No intrigue here, unless Minnesota really really wants that jug.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 4
#4 Ohio State (4-0) @ #9 Iowa (4-0)
OSU hasn't impressed since the Texas game, but neither has Iowa since Drew Tate missed the Syracuse game. Iowa's chances depend on Drew Tate, and he's due for that breakout performance...
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#12 Georgia (4-0) @ Mississippi (1-3)
Ole Miss is so bad. Then again, so was Colorado, so I'm going to dock my confidence rating a bit.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
New Mexico State (2-1) @ UTEP (1-2)
NMSU's not that good, despite their zany passtacular offense. Even if the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience is in full effect, UTEP should win at home.
The Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
SMU (2-2) @ Tulane (1-2)
SMU exploded against Arkansas State, but they looked miserable before that. Tulane lost to much stronger LSU and Houston teams, but managed to beat Mississippi State. Beating a SEC team + home-field advantage > crushing Arkansas State.
The Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
Washington (3-1) @ Arizona (2-2)
Arizona's probably the better team, but Washington has the better resume. It's about even, but I'll go with talent and Tucson.
The Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Colorado State (2-1) @ Fresno State (1-2)
Fresno's fine, Washington loss aside. They won't be their usual overrated selves, but they'll still be good enough to beat CSU at home.
The Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Nevada (2-2) @ UNLV (1-2)
Nevada's a slow starter. And I'm pretty sure they've started.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Eastern Illinois @ Hawaii (1-2)
PASSTACULAR!
The Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Week 5 Rundown: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
6:00 PM
BYU (2-2) @ #21 TCU (3-0)
TCU hasn't been impressive at all, but really, BYU hasn't been overly so either. BYU has the passing game to cause some trouble, and someone really should beat TCU, but well, I thought both things going into the Texas Tech game.
The Pick: TCU
Confidence (out of 5): 1
7:30 PM
#5 Auburn (4-0) @ South Carolina (3-1)
It looks like the Gamecocks have turned the corner, but again, it was against Florida Atlantic. Either way, probably not good enough against that Auburn defense.
The Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Rutgers (4-0) @ South Florida (3-1)
Wow, Rutgers faces an actual defense! I would've picked Rutgers before the year began, and while USF seems to have an offense that I did not see coming, Rutgers is still a better team. The Scarlet Knights should win here, but at South Florida...
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
BYU (2-2) @ #21 TCU (3-0)
TCU hasn't been impressive at all, but really, BYU hasn't been overly so either. BYU has the passing game to cause some trouble, and someone really should beat TCU, but well, I thought both things going into the Texas Tech game.
The Pick: TCU
Confidence (out of 5): 1
7:30 PM
#5 Auburn (4-0) @ South Carolina (3-1)
It looks like the Gamecocks have turned the corner, but again, it was against Florida Atlantic. Either way, probably not good enough against that Auburn defense.
The Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Rutgers (4-0) @ South Florida (3-1)
Wow, Rutgers faces an actual defense! I would've picked Rutgers before the year began, and while USF seems to have an offense that I did not see coming, Rutgers is still a better team. The Scarlet Knights should win here, but at South Florida...
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 1
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
The Feely Top 25: After Week 4
#1 USC (#1 LW, Week 4: W @ Arizona 20-3): Defense had a dominating day, and this game is, scarily, probably the low end of what USC's offensive performance will be.
#2 Michigan (#5, W vs. Wisconsin 27-13): As good as anyone, and probably the most overall impressive team in the country. Mario Manningham is doing well enough to make up for any concerns about Henne, and rushing and defense are obviously fine. Like USC, I don't see a weakness.
#3 Florida (#3, W vs. Kentucky 26-7): Kentucky seems weirdly decent this year, being competitive but not looking very good. Another team where the passing game seems fine, the running game seems fine, and the defense seems fine. Schedule's keeping me from even thinking of putting them higher.
#4 Ohio State (#2, W vs. Penn State 28-6): That defense can't stop anyone from running, apparently. The high-octane offense no longer looks so high-octane, and that PSU win would look a lot worse had Morelli not shat himself.
#5 Auburn (#4, W vs. Buffalo 38-7): Ehhhhh Brandon Cox hasn't really impressed me. Still a NC contender at any rate, though SEC schedule blah blah blah.
#6 Texas (#6, W vs. Iowa State 37-14): I think they're noticeably below my top 5 teams, but they're still easily the class of the Big 12.
#7 West Virginia (#7, W @ East Carolina 27-10): I saw WVU for the only time this year against Maryland, and I couldn't envision a team stopping them. East Carolina apparently...kinda did. Could've bumped them up if they looked as impressive as the Maryland game, but now I'm just back to being skeptical. Since they can still go undefeated, I'll leave them here instead of knocking them below...
#8 LSU (#8, W vs. Tulane 49-7): Now why couldn't they do that last week? As talented as anyone, but mercurial mercurial mercurial.
#9 Iowa (#9, W @ Illinois 24-7): And here's where I feel the dropoff between "NC contenders" and "just pretty good" is. Drew Tate's looked only decent, and he's pretty much the key to the team. Iowa's almost like a time bomb -- I sense that Tate could explode at any time and suddenly make himself an elite QB, and when that happens, Iowa's shooting up the rankings. Cautious optimism abounds, especially since that breakout could happen against Ohio State next week.
#10 Oregon (#12, BYE): Way to not almost lose to Colorado.
#11 Cal (#13, W vs. Arizona State 49-21): Yeah, Cal's legit now that they've gotten their shit together. Looking at where I have them and where the polls have them, they could be pretty disrespected this year. Hell, I think they're probably a better team than Oregon, it's just that the Ducks can still go undefeated.
#12 Georgia (#10, W vs. Colorado 14-13): Well, now I have no idea what to make of the Bulldogs. I figured the offense would eventually gel, and that galaxy-beating defense would keep things up. And uh.....neither of those happened. Or anywhere near happened. But they won, so they're still this high.
#13 Louisville (#11, W @ Kansas State 24-6): Well, they still seem quite above-average. Definitely not #13 in terms of talent, but they could/should easily win every game except against WVU.
#14 Oklahoma (#14, W vs. Middle Tennessee State 59-0): Dominating win, but of course, it IS Middle Tennessee State. The defense is really the question here, and OU really seems like they'll be a frustrating team the rest of the season. I could see them beating Texas, or losing to...oh, hey, they don't play Nebraska. Uh, I guess they could lose to Iowa State. Maybe.
#15 Clemson (#17, W vs. North Carolina 52-7): One wonders what could've been if that XP against BC hadn't been blocked. Well, they could've been as high as #6 here. Easily the most impressive team in the ACC. Easily.
#16 Tennessee (#16, W vs. Marshall 33-7): Marshall's pretty down this year. Pretty good team, SEC schedule, blah blah blah.
#17 Nebraska (#19, W vs. Troy 56-0): Man, Nebraska beats the hell out of bad opponents better than anyone this year, don't they?
#18 Notre Dame (#15, W @ Michigan State 40-37): Wow, Ohio State lite, and at least the Buckeyes have a running game. Didn't impress at all in..."winning", I guess. Didn't impress at all in letting Michigan State implode. And they can't stop anyone from running either. Please take your hype and go away.
#19 Virginia Tech (#18, W vs. Cincinnati 28-13): Meh. Unimpressive win, and Cincinnati isn't that good, especially since Bearcats QB Dustin Grutza imploded. Could gel and impress more down the line, but as of right now, this is where they are.
#20 Boise State (#21, W vs. Hawaii 41-34): Offense is as good as anyone in the country. Defense may only be mediocre, but that's as good as anyone in the WAC.
#21 TCU (#22, BYE): Still could go undefeated. Yep. Not impressive at all, but stiiiiiill could go undefeated.
#22 Georgia Tech (NR, W vs. Virginia 24-7): Could do well in this year's new look (read: shitty) ACC. Calvin Johnson? A beast. That defense? Pretty good. Yep.
#23 Michigan State (#20, L vs. Notre Dame 37-40): They still have all that offensive talent. And really, who else deserves to be here?
#24 Alabama (#23, L @ Arkansas 23-24): The sudden discovery of offense for the Crimson Tide pretty much offsets the fluky loss in my mind. So they got Clemson'd. If QB John Parker Wilson's improvement is legit, that makes them as balanced (QB/RB/defense) as anyone.
#25 Florida State (#24, W vs. Rice 55-7): That defense didn't look all that great against Rice. So, uh, why are they here again? Oh yeah, the alternatives are...
Also Receiving Votes But Not Really Since I Am The Only One Voting:
Rutgers (4-0, W vs. Howard 56-7): That defense has looked good. But, against Joe Dailey, Illinois, Ohio and Howard. That running game has looked good. But, against UNC, Illinois, Ohio, and Howard. Definitely way better than expected, but still. UNC, Illinois, Ohio, and Howard.
Missouri (4-0, W vs. Ohio 31-6): Same questions about SoS here, as the Tigers have played Murray State, Ole Miss, UNM and Ohio. And the Ole Miss win looks a whole heckuva lot worse now. I'm not ruling out the possibility of legit improvement, but I'm still skeptical.
OUT:
#25 Boston College (L @ NC State 15-17): Serves me right for finally ranking them.
#2 Michigan (#5, W vs. Wisconsin 27-13): As good as anyone, and probably the most overall impressive team in the country. Mario Manningham is doing well enough to make up for any concerns about Henne, and rushing and defense are obviously fine. Like USC, I don't see a weakness.
#3 Florida (#3, W vs. Kentucky 26-7): Kentucky seems weirdly decent this year, being competitive but not looking very good. Another team where the passing game seems fine, the running game seems fine, and the defense seems fine. Schedule's keeping me from even thinking of putting them higher.
#4 Ohio State (#2, W vs. Penn State 28-6): That defense can't stop anyone from running, apparently. The high-octane offense no longer looks so high-octane, and that PSU win would look a lot worse had Morelli not shat himself.
#5 Auburn (#4, W vs. Buffalo 38-7): Ehhhhh Brandon Cox hasn't really impressed me. Still a NC contender at any rate, though SEC schedule blah blah blah.
#6 Texas (#6, W vs. Iowa State 37-14): I think they're noticeably below my top 5 teams, but they're still easily the class of the Big 12.
#7 West Virginia (#7, W @ East Carolina 27-10): I saw WVU for the only time this year against Maryland, and I couldn't envision a team stopping them. East Carolina apparently...kinda did. Could've bumped them up if they looked as impressive as the Maryland game, but now I'm just back to being skeptical. Since they can still go undefeated, I'll leave them here instead of knocking them below...
#8 LSU (#8, W vs. Tulane 49-7): Now why couldn't they do that last week? As talented as anyone, but mercurial mercurial mercurial.
#9 Iowa (#9, W @ Illinois 24-7): And here's where I feel the dropoff between "NC contenders" and "just pretty good" is. Drew Tate's looked only decent, and he's pretty much the key to the team. Iowa's almost like a time bomb -- I sense that Tate could explode at any time and suddenly make himself an elite QB, and when that happens, Iowa's shooting up the rankings. Cautious optimism abounds, especially since that breakout could happen against Ohio State next week.
#10 Oregon (#12, BYE): Way to not almost lose to Colorado.
#11 Cal (#13, W vs. Arizona State 49-21): Yeah, Cal's legit now that they've gotten their shit together. Looking at where I have them and where the polls have them, they could be pretty disrespected this year. Hell, I think they're probably a better team than Oregon, it's just that the Ducks can still go undefeated.
#12 Georgia (#10, W vs. Colorado 14-13): Well, now I have no idea what to make of the Bulldogs. I figured the offense would eventually gel, and that galaxy-beating defense would keep things up. And uh.....neither of those happened. Or anywhere near happened. But they won, so they're still this high.
#13 Louisville (#11, W @ Kansas State 24-6): Well, they still seem quite above-average. Definitely not #13 in terms of talent, but they could/should easily win every game except against WVU.
#14 Oklahoma (#14, W vs. Middle Tennessee State 59-0): Dominating win, but of course, it IS Middle Tennessee State. The defense is really the question here, and OU really seems like they'll be a frustrating team the rest of the season. I could see them beating Texas, or losing to...oh, hey, they don't play Nebraska. Uh, I guess they could lose to Iowa State. Maybe.
#15 Clemson (#17, W vs. North Carolina 52-7): One wonders what could've been if that XP against BC hadn't been blocked. Well, they could've been as high as #6 here. Easily the most impressive team in the ACC. Easily.
#16 Tennessee (#16, W vs. Marshall 33-7): Marshall's pretty down this year. Pretty good team, SEC schedule, blah blah blah.
#17 Nebraska (#19, W vs. Troy 56-0): Man, Nebraska beats the hell out of bad opponents better than anyone this year, don't they?
#18 Notre Dame (#15, W @ Michigan State 40-37): Wow, Ohio State lite, and at least the Buckeyes have a running game. Didn't impress at all in..."winning", I guess. Didn't impress at all in letting Michigan State implode. And they can't stop anyone from running either. Please take your hype and go away.
#19 Virginia Tech (#18, W vs. Cincinnati 28-13): Meh. Unimpressive win, and Cincinnati isn't that good, especially since Bearcats QB Dustin Grutza imploded. Could gel and impress more down the line, but as of right now, this is where they are.
#20 Boise State (#21, W vs. Hawaii 41-34): Offense is as good as anyone in the country. Defense may only be mediocre, but that's as good as anyone in the WAC.
#21 TCU (#22, BYE): Still could go undefeated. Yep. Not impressive at all, but stiiiiiill could go undefeated.
#22 Georgia Tech (NR, W vs. Virginia 24-7): Could do well in this year's new look (read: shitty) ACC. Calvin Johnson? A beast. That defense? Pretty good. Yep.
#23 Michigan State (#20, L vs. Notre Dame 37-40): They still have all that offensive talent. And really, who else deserves to be here?
#24 Alabama (#23, L @ Arkansas 23-24): The sudden discovery of offense for the Crimson Tide pretty much offsets the fluky loss in my mind. So they got Clemson'd. If QB John Parker Wilson's improvement is legit, that makes them as balanced (QB/RB/defense) as anyone.
#25 Florida State (#24, W vs. Rice 55-7): That defense didn't look all that great against Rice. So, uh, why are they here again? Oh yeah, the alternatives are...
Also Receiving Votes But Not Really Since I Am The Only One Voting:
Rutgers (4-0, W vs. Howard 56-7): That defense has looked good. But, against Joe Dailey, Illinois, Ohio and Howard. That running game has looked good. But, against UNC, Illinois, Ohio, and Howard. Definitely way better than expected, but still. UNC, Illinois, Ohio, and Howard.
Missouri (4-0, W vs. Ohio 31-6): Same questions about SoS here, as the Tigers have played Murray State, Ole Miss, UNM and Ohio. And the Ole Miss win looks a whole heckuva lot worse now. I'm not ruling out the possibility of legit improvement, but I'm still skeptical.
OUT:
#25 Boston College (L @ NC State 15-17): Serves me right for finally ranking them.
Week 5 Rundown: Tuesday
Since I don't think either team is making my top 25, I'll just do this now...
Southern Miss (2-1) @ Central Florida (1-2)
UCF can't stop anyone, Villanova included. USM looks to be their usual decent selves this year, and that NCSU win looks a lot better now. Southern Miss is clearly the better team, but with home-field advantage and the general screwiness of the mid-majors this year, I'll be a lot less confident in picking them than I usually would be.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 1
Southern Miss (2-1) @ Central Florida (1-2)
UCF can't stop anyone, Villanova included. USM looks to be their usual decent selves this year, and that NCSU win looks a lot better now. Southern Miss is clearly the better team, but with home-field advantage and the general screwiness of the mid-majors this year, I'll be a lot less confident in picking them than I usually would be.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 1
Week 4 Recap: The Rest
Air Force 31, Wyoming 24
Air Force continued their usual running ways, gaining 327 on the ground. However, the Wyoming running game disappointed, getting only 77 yards. This marks the second game in a row the AFA defense has been able to stop the run, and they look as good as any team in the MWC right now, albeit in only 2 games.
Akron 33, North Texas 13
UNT actually won the yardage battle 287-278, but 3 Mean Green turnovers doomed them. Akron QB Luke Getsy had an efficient day, going for 173 and 3 TD on 16/20 passing. Akron still looks like a strong team, and UNT being able to do some things has them looking better than they have previously.
SMU 55, Arkansas State 9
Where the hell did that come from? ASU only rushed for 69 yards, and the defense didn't fare much better. SMU QB Justin Willis exploded for 4 TD (and a pick) on 15/24 passing, and RB James Mapps had a TD run among his 132 yards. SMU looked like the worst team in I-A (well, except for Temple) in their first two games, but now seem like the sleeper I had them pegged for before the year began.
Army 27, Baylor 20 (OT)
Oh, Baylor. You should've won this one, but you had to allow a punt return. Bears QB Shawn Bell had a great game, passing for 242 and a score, but the rushing game still only had 70 yards. Army played decently, gaining a well-balanced 269 yards, but again, Baylor should've won this one. Without any running game, my hopes for the Bears are fading fast, while Army may have enough to beat...uh...Rice.
North Dakota State 29, Ball State 24
Holy fucking shit, I knew Ball State had no secondary but this is ridiculous. North Dakota State Bison QB Steve Walker: 29/46, 451 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
Kent State 38, Bowling Green 3
Minor upset turned into a blowout thanks to 6 BGSU turnovers. All-around offensive team effort by Kent, led by QB Julian Edelman, who threw for 141 and a score and ran another TD in.
Brigham Young 38, Utah State 0
USU had 242 total yards, so I guess that's kind of a good sign? BYU RB Fui Vakapuna had 73 yards and 3 TD, so good for him.
Central Michigan 24, Eastern Michigan 17 (OT)
As much as I loved backup CMU QB Dan LeFevour in the BC game, now that starter Brian Brunner is back, the Chippewas could be...dangerous? Brunner scored all three CMU TDs, throwing for 214 and a score, and leading the team in rushing with 72 and 2 scores.
Connecticut 14, Indiana 7
Brutal to watch. Indiana was horrible, only passing for 182 yards, and rushing for...zero. Yes, zero. The Huskies had 273 total yards, 155 of which was RB Terry Caulley. QB DJ Hernandez was absolutely awful, passing for 27 yards and 2 INT on 5/13 passing. And somehow, he managed to look worse watching the game than that stat line even indicates. So, yes, Terry Caulley and a very good defense are good enough to...beat an awful BCS team by one touchdown. Sigh.
South Carolina 45, Florida Atlantic 6
Gamecocks QB Syvelle Newton: 13/20, 216, 5 TD. Bout time.
Maryland 14, Florida International 10
FIU outgained the Terps 310-271, but could only get 89 yards on the ground. FIU's had bad luck so far this year, and there's still very little hope for Maryland, especially with NCSU seeming improved.
Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 7
Then again, Maryland could be worse. Meaning, they could be Virginia. Calvin Johnson (6 rec, 165 yds, 2 TD): Very good.
Houston 34, Oklahoma State 25
The quarterbacks went the Knights Of Cydonia route here. YOU AND I MUST FIGHT TO SURVIVE! Houston's Kevin Kolb (22/29, 320, 4 TD) was the victor, beating OK State's Bobby Reid (13/22, 283, 3 TD).
Oregon State 38, Idaho 0
Ohhhhh Vandals. 4 interceptions. So sad. Star of the show was Beavers RB Yvenson Bernard, who ran for 118 and 2 TD.
Kansas 13, South Florida 7
USF QB Matt Grothe was again most of the Bulls' offense, but unfortunately that was 262 total yards and 2 interceptions. Adam Barmann is apparently your new (well, he was the starter last year, so new old) Kansas QB, and he threw for 273 yards, no TDs, but no INTs, which is probably 3 of 4 less than Kerry Meier would've.
Syracuse 34, Miami of Ohio 14
303 yards for the Orange? 165 and 2 TD for Perry Patterson? God, the UConn offense is no Syracuse, at least for the time being.
Purdue 27, Minnesota 21
The yardage battle was 424-418, and both teams were pretty much statistically even. Bryan Cupito passed for 202 and a 2/1 TD/INT, and Purdue's Curtis Painter threw for 245 and 2 scores. Amir Pinnix ran for 172, and Purdue's Jaycen Taylor and Kory Sheets combined for 164 and a score. Yep. So these were two mediocre Big Ten teams going in, and they looked about equal, so neither really came out looking much better than before.
Wake Forest 27, Mississippi 3
A really weird blowout, as Wake only outgained the Rebels 284-213. The Demon Deacons only had 44 yards passing, but Mississippi outdid them, only gaining 34 yards on the ground. Wake's 4-0, so the revelation they could actually do something in the ACC probably isn't as surprising as it would've been a few weeks ago.
Mississippi State 16, UAB 10 (OT)
MSU still has no passing game (99 yards). Luckily, neither does UAB (90 yards), and the Blazers threw 2 picks. UAB's crashed down to earth, where Mississippi State's been waiting for them.
Tulsa 24, Navy 23 (OT)
ANOTHER OT win on a blocked XP. Tulsa deserved to win this, outgaining Navy 444-356, but Navy still ran for 283 yards, as they are wont to do.
Nevada 31, Northwestern 21
Nevada's QB Jeff Rowe (17/22, 197, 2/1 TD/INT) and RB Robert Hubbard (156, rushing TD, 25 yard TD reception) accounted for most of the winning offense. As for Northwestern, QB Mike Kafka (passing: 9/21, 122, 3 INT, rushing: 111 yards, TD) is a great running back.
New Mexico 26, UTEP 13
UNM won this one on the legs of RB Robert Ferguson (162, TD). Amazingly, the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience threw for a touchdown, but no picks.
Northern Illinois 48, Indiana State 14
Garrett Wolfe: 198 yards, 4 TD. And 42 receiving yards to lead the Huskies. He's very good!
Utah 38, San Diego State 7
Horrible day for SDSU QB Darren Mougey: 9/19, 83 yards, 1 TD, but 4 INT, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns. Utah's pretty good, SDSU's obviously not "there" yet.
Washington State 36, Stanford 10
And it should've been uglier. Wazzou outgained the Cardinal 457-149, and the Cougars lost 3 fumbles. WSU QB Alex Brink had the best line here: 21/33, 231 yards, 3 total TD (2 passing, 1 rushing).
Washington 29, UCLA 19
Odd win, as Washington got outgained and turned it over 4 times. According to the box score, UW QB somehow accounted for more total yards than his entire team had, so good for him.
Air Force continued their usual running ways, gaining 327 on the ground. However, the Wyoming running game disappointed, getting only 77 yards. This marks the second game in a row the AFA defense has been able to stop the run, and they look as good as any team in the MWC right now, albeit in only 2 games.
Akron 33, North Texas 13
UNT actually won the yardage battle 287-278, but 3 Mean Green turnovers doomed them. Akron QB Luke Getsy had an efficient day, going for 173 and 3 TD on 16/20 passing. Akron still looks like a strong team, and UNT being able to do some things has them looking better than they have previously.
SMU 55, Arkansas State 9
Where the hell did that come from? ASU only rushed for 69 yards, and the defense didn't fare much better. SMU QB Justin Willis exploded for 4 TD (and a pick) on 15/24 passing, and RB James Mapps had a TD run among his 132 yards. SMU looked like the worst team in I-A (well, except for Temple) in their first two games, but now seem like the sleeper I had them pegged for before the year began.
Army 27, Baylor 20 (OT)
Oh, Baylor. You should've won this one, but you had to allow a punt return. Bears QB Shawn Bell had a great game, passing for 242 and a score, but the rushing game still only had 70 yards. Army played decently, gaining a well-balanced 269 yards, but again, Baylor should've won this one. Without any running game, my hopes for the Bears are fading fast, while Army may have enough to beat...uh...Rice.
North Dakota State 29, Ball State 24
Holy fucking shit, I knew Ball State had no secondary but this is ridiculous. North Dakota State Bison QB Steve Walker: 29/46, 451 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
Kent State 38, Bowling Green 3
Minor upset turned into a blowout thanks to 6 BGSU turnovers. All-around offensive team effort by Kent, led by QB Julian Edelman, who threw for 141 and a score and ran another TD in.
Brigham Young 38, Utah State 0
USU had 242 total yards, so I guess that's kind of a good sign? BYU RB Fui Vakapuna had 73 yards and 3 TD, so good for him.
Central Michigan 24, Eastern Michigan 17 (OT)
As much as I loved backup CMU QB Dan LeFevour in the BC game, now that starter Brian Brunner is back, the Chippewas could be...dangerous? Brunner scored all three CMU TDs, throwing for 214 and a score, and leading the team in rushing with 72 and 2 scores.
Connecticut 14, Indiana 7
Brutal to watch. Indiana was horrible, only passing for 182 yards, and rushing for...zero. Yes, zero. The Huskies had 273 total yards, 155 of which was RB Terry Caulley. QB DJ Hernandez was absolutely awful, passing for 27 yards and 2 INT on 5/13 passing. And somehow, he managed to look worse watching the game than that stat line even indicates. So, yes, Terry Caulley and a very good defense are good enough to...beat an awful BCS team by one touchdown. Sigh.
South Carolina 45, Florida Atlantic 6
Gamecocks QB Syvelle Newton: 13/20, 216, 5 TD. Bout time.
Maryland 14, Florida International 10
FIU outgained the Terps 310-271, but could only get 89 yards on the ground. FIU's had bad luck so far this year, and there's still very little hope for Maryland, especially with NCSU seeming improved.
Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 7
Then again, Maryland could be worse. Meaning, they could be Virginia. Calvin Johnson (6 rec, 165 yds, 2 TD): Very good.
Houston 34, Oklahoma State 25
The quarterbacks went the Knights Of Cydonia route here. YOU AND I MUST FIGHT TO SURVIVE! Houston's Kevin Kolb (22/29, 320, 4 TD) was the victor, beating OK State's Bobby Reid (13/22, 283, 3 TD).
Oregon State 38, Idaho 0
Ohhhhh Vandals. 4 interceptions. So sad. Star of the show was Beavers RB Yvenson Bernard, who ran for 118 and 2 TD.
Kansas 13, South Florida 7
USF QB Matt Grothe was again most of the Bulls' offense, but unfortunately that was 262 total yards and 2 interceptions. Adam Barmann is apparently your new (well, he was the starter last year, so new old) Kansas QB, and he threw for 273 yards, no TDs, but no INTs, which is probably 3 of 4 less than Kerry Meier would've.
Syracuse 34, Miami of Ohio 14
303 yards for the Orange? 165 and 2 TD for Perry Patterson? God, the UConn offense is no Syracuse, at least for the time being.
Purdue 27, Minnesota 21
The yardage battle was 424-418, and both teams were pretty much statistically even. Bryan Cupito passed for 202 and a 2/1 TD/INT, and Purdue's Curtis Painter threw for 245 and 2 scores. Amir Pinnix ran for 172, and Purdue's Jaycen Taylor and Kory Sheets combined for 164 and a score. Yep. So these were two mediocre Big Ten teams going in, and they looked about equal, so neither really came out looking much better than before.
Wake Forest 27, Mississippi 3
A really weird blowout, as Wake only outgained the Rebels 284-213. The Demon Deacons only had 44 yards passing, but Mississippi outdid them, only gaining 34 yards on the ground. Wake's 4-0, so the revelation they could actually do something in the ACC probably isn't as surprising as it would've been a few weeks ago.
Mississippi State 16, UAB 10 (OT)
MSU still has no passing game (99 yards). Luckily, neither does UAB (90 yards), and the Blazers threw 2 picks. UAB's crashed down to earth, where Mississippi State's been waiting for them.
Tulsa 24, Navy 23 (OT)
ANOTHER OT win on a blocked XP. Tulsa deserved to win this, outgaining Navy 444-356, but Navy still ran for 283 yards, as they are wont to do.
Nevada 31, Northwestern 21
Nevada's QB Jeff Rowe (17/22, 197, 2/1 TD/INT) and RB Robert Hubbard (156, rushing TD, 25 yard TD reception) accounted for most of the winning offense. As for Northwestern, QB Mike Kafka (passing: 9/21, 122, 3 INT, rushing: 111 yards, TD) is a great running back.
New Mexico 26, UTEP 13
UNM won this one on the legs of RB Robert Ferguson (162, TD). Amazingly, the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience threw for a touchdown, but no picks.
Northern Illinois 48, Indiana State 14
Garrett Wolfe: 198 yards, 4 TD. And 42 receiving yards to lead the Huskies. He's very good!
Utah 38, San Diego State 7
Horrible day for SDSU QB Darren Mougey: 9/19, 83 yards, 1 TD, but 4 INT, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns. Utah's pretty good, SDSU's obviously not "there" yet.
Washington State 36, Stanford 10
And it should've been uglier. Wazzou outgained the Cardinal 457-149, and the Cougars lost 3 fumbles. WSU QB Alex Brink had the best line here: 21/33, 231 yards, 3 total TD (2 passing, 1 rushing).
Washington 29, UCLA 19
Odd win, as Washington got outgained and turned it over 4 times. According to the box score, UW QB somehow accounted for more total yards than his entire team had, so good for him.
Sunday, September 24, 2006
Week 4 Recap: The Top 25
Week 4: 43-15 (.741)
Overall: 210-47 (.817)
#1 USC @ Arizona
My Prediction: USC
Final Score: USC 20, Arizona 3
Still a thoroughly decent offensive performance by USC, with Booty having 180 yards and a 1/1 TD, and RB Emmanuel Moody scoring the other USC TD behind 130 rushing yards (and a lost fumble). Both of those numbers outdo the entire Arizona team, as the Wildcats only had 114 net yards, highlighted by negative 16 rushing. Good win for USC all in all, as even when the offense isn't great, the defense can still win it for the Trojans. Arizona still seems a year away.
Penn State @ #2 Ohio State
My Prediction: Ohio State
Final Score: Ohio State 28, Penn State 6
Oof. OSU only won the yardage battle 252-236. The running games were the offensive story here, as the top players were OSU's Antonio Pittman (108, TD) and PSU's Tony Hunt (135). Troy Smith didn't really have a great game (12/22, 115, 1/2 TD/INT), but luckily for the Buckeyes, PSU QB Anthony Morelli (16/25, 106, 3 INT) essentially shit himself down the stretch. Oh, and those last 2 picks were returned for touchdowns. Both teams looked bad here.
Kentucky @ #3 Florida
My Prediction: Florida
Final Score: Florida 26, Kentucky 7
Florida outgained Kentucky 468-211, so I don't get the talk about this being a struggle. Chris Leak had 268 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT, and teams somehow still don't realize that Tim Tebow will run the ball, as he had 73 yards on 6 runs. Kentucky only had 38 yards rushing, but QB Andre' Woodson has 208 and a score through the air. Kentucky actually seems decent this year, and I have no more worries than before about Florida.
Buffalo @ #4 Auburn
My Prediction: Auburn
Final Score:Auburn 38, Buffalo 7
God, this game existed. Brandon Cox only had 134 and a pick, but the running game had 261 yards and 5 TD, even without Kenny Irons. Buffalo QB Drew Willy had 111 and a score, good for him. Mostly a week off, so there's not much insight aboutAuburn
Overall: 210-47 (.817)
#1 USC @ Arizona
My Prediction: USC
Final Score: USC 20, Arizona 3
Still a thoroughly decent offensive performance by USC, with Booty having 180 yards and a 1/1 TD, and RB Emmanuel Moody scoring the other USC TD behind 130 rushing yards (and a lost fumble). Both of those numbers outdo the entire Arizona team, as the Wildcats only had 114 net yards, highlighted by negative 16 rushing. Good win for USC all in all, as even when the offense isn't great, the defense can still win it for the Trojans. Arizona still seems a year away.
Penn State @ #2 Ohio State
My Prediction: Ohio State
Final Score: Ohio State 28, Penn State 6
Oof. OSU only won the yardage battle 252-236. The running games were the offensive story here, as the top players were OSU's Antonio Pittman (108, TD) and PSU's Tony Hunt (135). Troy Smith didn't really have a great game (12/22, 115, 1/2 TD/INT), but luckily for the Buckeyes, PSU QB Anthony Morelli (16/25, 106, 3 INT) essentially shit himself down the stretch. Oh, and those last 2 picks were returned for touchdowns. Both teams looked bad here.
Kentucky @ #3 Florida
My Prediction: Florida
Final Score: Florida 26, Kentucky 7
Florida outgained Kentucky 468-211, so I don't get the talk about this being a struggle. Chris Leak had 268 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT, and teams somehow still don't realize that Tim Tebow will run the ball, as he had 73 yards on 6 runs. Kentucky only had 38 yards rushing, but QB Andre' Woodson has 208 and a score through the air. Kentucky actually seems decent this year, and I have no more worries than before about Florida.
Buffalo @ #4 Auburn
My Prediction: Auburn
Final Score:
God, this game existed. Brandon Cox only had 134 and a pick, but the running game had 261 yards and 5 TD, even without Kenny Irons. Buffalo QB Drew Willy had 111 and a score, good for him. Mostly a week off, so there's not much insight about
Wisconsin @ #5 Michigan
My Prediction: Michigan
Final Score: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 13
Wisconsin only had 12 yards rushing, even if they did get 200 through the air. Chad Henne threw for 211 and 3 picks, but also had 2 TD for 113 to the now-officially-scary Mario Manningham. Wisconsin was game most of this...game, so there may be hope yet for the Badgers, and Michigan's doing what they have to do possibly better than any team in the country.
Iowa State @ #6 Texas
My Prediction: Texas
Final Score: Texas 37, Iowa State 14
The Texas offense didn't drop off, going for 234 passing and 192 rushing. Colt McCoy was pretty good, with 210 and a 2/1 TD/INT on 18/23 passing. ISU's Bret Meyer about matched that with 275 and 2 TD, but also 2 INT. Some minor defensive concerns about Texas, and Iowa State's still solidly above-average.
#7 West Virginia @ East Carolina
My Prediction: West Virginia
Final Score: West Virginia 27, East Carolina 10
WVU with 216 yards...passing? And Pat White had a 2/3 TD/INT, with a rushing TD. Slaton only had 80 yards. Of course, the ECU running game only had 42. Pirates QB James Pinckney was their offensive star, with 246, a TD and an INT through the air. I don't know if this was a failed experiment in trying to throw it or what, but West Virginia looks mortal.
Tulane @ #8 LSU
My Prediction: LSU
Final Score: LSU 49, Tulane 7
LSU's as mercurial as ever. JaMarcus Russell (17/23, 199, 2 TD) had a nice day, but the star of the show may be RB Charles Scott, who had 103 and 2 scores.
#9 Iowa @ Illinois
My Prediction: Iowa
Final Score: Iowa 24, Illinois 7
Surprisingly close yardage-wise, with Iowa ahead 337-291. Iowa QB Drew Tate looked mortal, with 187 and a 1/1 TD/INT. Illinois QB Juice Williams was worse, however, with only 9/32 for 162 and an abysmal 1/3 TD/INT. Not an impressive game at all for Iowa, as I doubt Illinois has suddenly become decent or anything.
Colorado @ #10 Georgia
My Prediction: Georgia
Final Score: Georgia 14, Colorado 13
Okay, I overrated Georgia, even if I don't know who should have been at #10. Colorado actually won the yardage battle 315-283, led by QB Bernard Jackson, who had 142 and a pick passing, but 85 and a score on the ground. Backup UGA QB Joe Cox was your obvious star of the game, coming in late and throwing for 153 and both Bulldog touchdowns. Obviously not a confidence-inspiring win by any means.
#11 Louisville @ Kansas State
My Prediction: Louisville
Final Score: Louisville 24, Kansas State 6
Thoroughly decent win. The UL defense was the most impressive thing here, giving up only 233 yards. Hunter Cantwell threw for 172 and a 1/1 TD/INT, and the running game had 229 yards and 2 TD, but 2 lost fumbles. KSU RB Thomas Clayton's 118 and a score was the only bright spot for the Wildcats.
Arizona State @ #13 Cal
My Prediction: Cal
Final Score: Cal 49, Arizona State 21
I thought Cal would kill them, but not this badly. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter pulled a Joe Dailey, throwing for 177 and a 2/4 TD/INT. RB Ryan Torain tried to carry the offense however, running for 185 and a score, as well as catching one of the Carpenter TDs. As for Cal, the offense has found their rhythm, as Lynch ran for 124 and caught one of Nate Longshore's 4 TDs. Cal's humming along nicely, with as many defensive concerns as any non-USC Pac 10 team, and Arizona State...ehh, not so much. The yardage was actually pretty close (396-379), but the Carpenter INTs bring any ASU excitement down a notch.
Middle Tennessee State @ #14 Oklahoma
My Prediction: Oklahoma
Final Score: Oklahoma 59, Middle Tennessee State 0
Ow. The OU defense finally stopped someone, holding the Blue Raiders to only 86 yards. Paul Thompson (13/18, 254, 3 TD) had a great day, and Adrian Peterson (131, 3 TD) remains a scary man. As impressive as a win like this can be.
#15 Notre Dame @ #20 Michigan State
My Prediction: Notre Dame
Final Score: Notre Dame 40, Michigan State 37
Michigan State imploded, Notre Dame doesn't look any good either. Brady Quinn passed for 319 and a 5/1 TD/INT, but somehow didn't really impress. And the UND running game only generated 46 yards. UND also proved they couldn't stop the run, as the Spartans gained 247 on the ground. Drew Stanton's 2 late picks were the only reason UND really won this one, so UND proved they are more lucky than good, and Michigan State proved they're still as annoyingly inconsistent as ever.
Marshall @ #16 Tennessee
My Prediction: Tennessee
Final Score: Tennessee 33, Marshall 7
RB LaMarcus Coker was the star for the Vols, gaining 146 and a TD on the ground. Erik Ainge threw for 268 and a 1/1 TD/INT, so he didn't have a horrible day or anything. A nice confidence-building win after the AFA struggle and the Florida loss, but Marshall looks to be pretty bad this year.
North Carolina @ #17 Clemson
My Prediction: Clemson
Final Score: Clemson 52, North Carolina 7
Clemson destroyed in the yardage battle 506-135. QB Will Proctor only threw for 135 and a pick, but the UNC defense, once again, could not stop the run. James Davis ran for 96 and 4 TDs, and C.J. Spiller added 58 more yards and 2 more scores.
Cincinnati @ #18 Virginia Tech
My Prediction: Virginia Tech
Final Score: Virginia Tech 28, Cincinnati 13
Cincinnati once again hangin' in there. Both QBs had bad days, and the only offensive player on either side to be above decent was VT RB Branden Ore, who ran for 163 and a score. Virginia Tech seems above-average but not great, and Cincinnati may actually be able to make some noise in the Big East.
Troy @ #19 Nebraska
My Prediction: Nebraska
Final Score: Nebraska 56, Troy 0
Dominating offensive performance here by the Huskers, outgaining Troy 601-159. Marlon Lucky ran for 153 and 3 TD, and Kenny Wilson added 105 and 2. Nice statement win.
Hawaii @ #21 Boise State
My Prediction: Boise State
Final Score: Boise State 41, Hawaii 34
The usual WACtastic shootout, with Boise outgaining Hawaii 505-458. Colt Brennan was unsurprisingly the bulk of the Hawaii offense, throwing for 386, 5 TD and a pick. Boise showed a balanced offense, passing for 263 and rushing for 242, led by Ian Johnson's 178 and 2 TD. Boise's offense is as good as anyone in the country, and since their defense looks at least decent, they should be able to roll in the WAC.
#23 Alabama @ Arkansas
My Prediction: Alabama
Final Score: Arkansas 24, Alabama 23 (2 OT)
Well, the Razorbacks pulled that one out of their ass. Arkansas was outgained 316-270, and only RB Darren McFadden (113, TD) looked good on their offense. Bama QB John Parker Wilson had a breakout game, gaining 241 and 3 TD on 16/20 passing. Essentially the same story as the Clemson/BC game a few weeks back: Alabama's definitely better, Arkansas will likely now be overrated.
Rice @ #24 Florida State
My Prediction: Florida State
Final Score: Florida State 55, Rice 7
FSU actually gained 285 yards rushing. Rice actually managed 261 yards, which is more than I'd expect with that defense. So, who knows what this game means.
#25 Boston College @ NC State
My Prediction: Boston College
Final Score: NC State 17, Boston College 15
Figures as soon as I rank them. Even game all in all, with BC winning the yardage game 313-309, NCSU's Dan Evans winning the passing battle 174-150, and both leading rushers being within 10 yards of each other. There may be some faint hope for NC State this year, and BC is probably closer to this than the team that somehow beat Clemson and BYU.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Week 4 Rundown: Friday and Saturday
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Northwestern (2-1) @ Nevada (1-2)
Northwestern's been frustratingly inconsistent, while Nevada's given it a go against tougher competition. Nevada usually takes a while to get going, and I think they'll do so here and at home, doing enough to win even if the Good Northwestern shows up.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence (out of 5): 2
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Wisconsin (3-0) @ #5 Michigan (3-0)
Mayyyyybe at Wisconsin, but in the Big House, no. Plus who knows how good the Badgers even are with how weak their schedule's been.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 4
#14 Iowa (3-0) @ Illinois (1-2)
Even if Drew Tate isn't playing, Illinois is apparently even worse than Syracuse.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 4
North Carolina (1-2) @ #17 Clemson (2-1)
Joe Dailey isn't starting anymore, and UNC has a way of getting big upset wins, but I still don't think this will be one. The Tar Heel defense looked too bad against Furman.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 4
Cincinnati (1-2) @ #18 Virginia Tech (3-0)
I'm not fully sold on Tech, but I've already sold on Cinci-- YAWWWWWWWN --nnati.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 4
Minnesota (2-1) @ Purdue (3-0)
I am absolutely shocked Purdue is 3-0, and considering they played Indiana State, Miami of Ohio and Ball State, that says something. Minnesota isn't really that good, but they should at least be able to run on this defense.
The Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 2
12:10 PM
#11 Louisville (3-0) @ Kansas State (3-0)
This screams trap game, and KSU is beginning to get things together, but I don't think the Wildcats are the level of team that will give the Louisville B-Squad trouble.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Colorado (0-3) @ #10 Georgia (3-0)
Oh jesus, this could get ugly. Colorado may not crack 100 yards.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 5
1:00 PM
Kent State (1-2) @ Bowling Green (2-1)
Oh god, the MAC. BGSU had two QBs that have looked good (albeit against Buffalo and FIU), and while Kent got a win over Miami of Ohio, I'm picking the home team.
The Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
Tulsa (2-1) @ Navy (3-0)
Tulsa's a talented team, whooping at the hands of BYU notwithstanding. I have some questions about Navy's defense, but they've just been running all over everything and nobody's been able to stop them, so why should Tulsa?
The Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
The Citadel @ Pittsburgh (2-1)
Yawn.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Ohio (2-1) @ Missouri (3-0)
I'm still not sure what to make of Ohio, but Missouri's already beat much better teams.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Howard @ Rutgers (3-0)
I assume the Rutgers running game will continue to dominate here.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Buffalo (1-2) @ #4 Auburn (3-0)
Hahahahahahahaha. Ha. Hahaha. Ha. Ha ha ha. Ha.
The Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
3:00 PM
Utah State (0-3) @ BYU (1-2)
Utah State's been horribly disappointing, especially on offense. BYU's had the expected high-powered passing game, even if it hasn't gotten this many wins. They should get one here, though.
The Pick: BYU
Confidence: 5
3:05 PM
Indiana State @ Northern Illinois (1-2)
Will Garrett Wolfe get 300?
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
Penn State (2-1) @ #2 Ohio State (3-0)
If Penn State can't stop the UND offense, this could get ugly.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Iowa State (2-1) @ #6 Texas (2-1)
Texas is just in another league right now. ISU should be much improved, however, and still could give Nebraska a run.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3
Arizona State (3-0) @ #13 Cal (2-1)
The Sun Devils just haven't impressed me at all. Cal's defense concerns me a bit, but they still have an overall higher talent level, and they're at home, so I can't imagine them losing, even if it's a shootout.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
#23 Alabama (3-0) @ Arkansas (2-1)
I still don't see THAT big of an improvement with Arkansas. Next year I think they could make some noise, but I think the Bama defense should shut them down, especially with a frosh QB.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Rice (0-3) @ #24 Florida State (2-1)
FSU isn't THAT bad.
The Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (1-2) @ Eastern Michigan (0-3)
CMU's looked more impressive and has a stud DE in Dan Bazuin. However, this is the crazy-ass MAC, and Eastern has great WR Eric Deslauriers.
The Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 1
Connecticut (1-1) @ Indiana (2-1)
Indiana lost to Southern Illinois, but may be motivated to win for their returning coach. For UConn's sake, the Huskies better not let them.
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2
UCLA (2-0) @ Washington (2-1)
UCLA beat Utah, but I'm still skeptical. I'm not sure what to make of Washington yet, but they seem improved so what the hey.
The Pick: Washington
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Marshall (1-2) @ #16 Tennessee (2-1)
Marshall's been tremendously disappointing this year. They're no Air Force.
The Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
4:30 PM
#7 West Virginia (3-0) @ East Carolina (1-2)
I'm only giving this 4 confidence because I finally admitted WVU could go undefeated, which usually means they'll lose this week.
The Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
Air Force (0-1) @ Wyoming (1-2)
Air Force looked good at Tennessee, but I have my concerns about small sample size. Wyoming murdered Utah State, and played Boise and Virginia close, so I give them the edge at home.
The Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
North Carolina A&T @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-2)
If SMU can beat a I-AA, sure, why not.
The Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3
UTEP (1-1) @ New Mexico (1-2)
UNM lost to Portland State, so they're not any good. UTEP should win this despite the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience.
The Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
Washington State (2-1) @ Stanford (0-3)
I don't think Stanford is this bad, but they still have absolutely no defense. Wazzou's been underwhelming, but they should be able to put up some yardage here.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
North Texas (1-2) @ Akron (1-2)
Akron's been MAC-tastically inconsistent, but if North Texas can only managed 89 yards against Tulsa, I think the Zips'll win this one.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-3) @ Maryland (2-1)
Maryland'll pick up another win before they start ACC play and get absolutely whooped. Good for them.
The Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (3-0) @ Mississippi (1-2)
3-0? Really? Wake didn't impress me at all against UConn, and while Ole Miss has been inconsistent, they have the talent to win here. Especially at home.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 2
Cal Poly @ San Jose State (1-1)
While this would be a hilarious letdown, I'll be nice.
The Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
North Dakota State @ Ball State (1-2)
Ball State's a fine MAC team, even if they have no secondary.
The Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (2-1) @ #14 Oklahoma (2-1)
Defensive concerns aside, OU should obviously be fine here.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Army (1-2) @ Baylor (1-2)
Army almost beat Texas A&M, but Baylor still was able to keep it close at Wazzou without a rushing game. Army can't stop anyone from running, so if Baylor is able to get anything going on the ground, which they should, the Bears should win at home.
The Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (0-3) @ South Carolina (2-1)
It remains to be seen if South Carolina is that bad. FAU is one of the worst teams in I-A, so that will continue.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
South Florida (3-0) @ Kansas (2-1)
I normally don't take stock in turnovers, but KU QB Kerry Meier has proven himself to be quite interception-prone. USF has a good defense and, apparently, an offense to speak of, so I give them the nod here.
The Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Louisiana Tech (1-1) @ Texas A&M (3-0)
Army may be better than Louisiana Tech, so the Bulldogs won't be much of a threat, even if A&M doesn't appear to be very good.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
Miami of Ohio (0-3) @ Syracuse (1-2)
The RedHawks have been better than that 0-3 record. I think Syracuse may have used up all their offense against Illinois, and pretty much consider that game an abberation.
The Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
Mississippi State (0-3) @ UAB (1-2)
Mississippi State may have a worse offense than Syracuse.
The Pick: UAB
Confidence: 3
Temple (0-3) @ Western Michigan (2-1)
It's Temple.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 4
Southeastern Louisiana @ Texas Tech (2-1)
Tech should put up 90 or so, but I think they actually might not be able to stop the SELA offense.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5
McNeese State @ Toledo (1-2)
Yawn.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 5
Tennessee State @ Vanderbilt (0-3)
YAWWWWWWWN.
The Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 5
7:10 PM
Troy (1-2) @ #19 Nebraska (2-1)
Troy could win the Sun Belt. There's a minor chance of a letdown and an upset, but the Troy offense seems too turnover-prone for it to happen.
The Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
Kentucky (2-1) @ #3 Florida (3-0)
Splat.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
#1 USC (3-0) @ Arizona (2-1)
Arizona's a year off. Arizona could show up and keep it competitive for a while, but USC'll eventually overwhelm them.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Tulane (1-1) @ #8 LSU (2-1)
Tulane looks decent. Decent is not good, nor is it good enough here.
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#15 Notre Dame (2-1) @ #20 Michigan State (3-0)
This one will be a fun shootout. Unfortunately, if the Penn State defense can't disrupt the UND offense, I don't think Michigan State will be able to. Michigan State is at home, however, and they could easily pull off the "upset", but I see Notre Dame winning, again, a fun shootout.
The Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
Hawaii (1-1) @ #21 Boise State (3-0)
Ooh, this should be a WACtastic shootout. Boise has their defensive concerns, but Hawaii has more. Plus the game's at Boise.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
#25 Boston College (3-0) @ NC State (1-2)
BC should finally get their definite win here. NCSU deserves nothing more than this sentence.
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4
Arkansas State (1-1) @ SMU (1-2)
Wow, SMU kind of has an offense. Arkansas State has a better one, however. AND Arkansas State has a great safety.
The Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Utah (2-1) @ San Diego State (0-2)
An intriguing game. SDSU looked bad against Wisconsin, but so did Utah against UCLA (before beating up and Utah State and a I-AA that escapes me). This could go either way, but I'll go with my preseason favorite.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
Oklahoma State (3-0) @ Houston (3-0)
Both teams have played light enough schedules where it's not really clear where they stand. OK State isn't supposed to be above mediocre this year, however, and Houston is at home with that great offense.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
Idaho (1-2) @ Oregon State (1-1)
Idaho's improved, but not enough to win at Oregon State. Teams are probably closer than one would figure, though.
The Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Northwestern (2-1) @ Nevada (1-2)
Northwestern's been frustratingly inconsistent, while Nevada's given it a go against tougher competition. Nevada usually takes a while to get going, and I think they'll do so here and at home, doing enough to win even if the Good Northwestern shows up.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence (out of 5): 2
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Wisconsin (3-0) @ #5 Michigan (3-0)
Mayyyyybe at Wisconsin, but in the Big House, no. Plus who knows how good the Badgers even are with how weak their schedule's been.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 4
#14 Iowa (3-0) @ Illinois (1-2)
Even if Drew Tate isn't playing, Illinois is apparently even worse than Syracuse.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 4
North Carolina (1-2) @ #17 Clemson (2-1)
Joe Dailey isn't starting anymore, and UNC has a way of getting big upset wins, but I still don't think this will be one. The Tar Heel defense looked too bad against Furman.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 4
Cincinnati (1-2) @ #18 Virginia Tech (3-0)
I'm not fully sold on Tech, but I've already sold on Cinci-- YAWWWWWWWN --nnati.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 4
Minnesota (2-1) @ Purdue (3-0)
I am absolutely shocked Purdue is 3-0, and considering they played Indiana State, Miami of Ohio and Ball State, that says something. Minnesota isn't really that good, but they should at least be able to run on this defense.
The Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 2
12:10 PM
#11 Louisville (3-0) @ Kansas State (3-0)
This screams trap game, and KSU is beginning to get things together, but I don't think the Wildcats are the level of team that will give the Louisville B-Squad trouble.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Colorado (0-3) @ #10 Georgia (3-0)
Oh jesus, this could get ugly. Colorado may not crack 100 yards.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 5
1:00 PM
Kent State (1-2) @ Bowling Green (2-1)
Oh god, the MAC. BGSU had two QBs that have looked good (albeit against Buffalo and FIU), and while Kent got a win over Miami of Ohio, I'm picking the home team.
The Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
Tulsa (2-1) @ Navy (3-0)
Tulsa's a talented team, whooping at the hands of BYU notwithstanding. I have some questions about Navy's defense, but they've just been running all over everything and nobody's been able to stop them, so why should Tulsa?
The Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
The Citadel @ Pittsburgh (2-1)
Yawn.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Ohio (2-1) @ Missouri (3-0)
I'm still not sure what to make of Ohio, but Missouri's already beat much better teams.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Howard @ Rutgers (3-0)
I assume the Rutgers running game will continue to dominate here.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Buffalo (1-2) @ #4 Auburn (3-0)
Hahahahahahahaha. Ha. Hahaha. Ha. Ha ha ha. Ha.
The Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
3:00 PM
Utah State (0-3) @ BYU (1-2)
Utah State's been horribly disappointing, especially on offense. BYU's had the expected high-powered passing game, even if it hasn't gotten this many wins. They should get one here, though.
The Pick: BYU
Confidence: 5
3:05 PM
Indiana State @ Northern Illinois (1-2)
Will Garrett Wolfe get 300?
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
Penn State (2-1) @ #2 Ohio State (3-0)
If Penn State can't stop the UND offense, this could get ugly.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Iowa State (2-1) @ #6 Texas (2-1)
Texas is just in another league right now. ISU should be much improved, however, and still could give Nebraska a run.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3
Arizona State (3-0) @ #13 Cal (2-1)
The Sun Devils just haven't impressed me at all. Cal's defense concerns me a bit, but they still have an overall higher talent level, and they're at home, so I can't imagine them losing, even if it's a shootout.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
#23 Alabama (3-0) @ Arkansas (2-1)
I still don't see THAT big of an improvement with Arkansas. Next year I think they could make some noise, but I think the Bama defense should shut them down, especially with a frosh QB.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Rice (0-3) @ #24 Florida State (2-1)
FSU isn't THAT bad.
The Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (1-2) @ Eastern Michigan (0-3)
CMU's looked more impressive and has a stud DE in Dan Bazuin. However, this is the crazy-ass MAC, and Eastern has great WR Eric Deslauriers.
The Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 1
Connecticut (1-1) @ Indiana (2-1)
Indiana lost to Southern Illinois, but may be motivated to win for their returning coach. For UConn's sake, the Huskies better not let them.
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2
UCLA (2-0) @ Washington (2-1)
UCLA beat Utah, but I'm still skeptical. I'm not sure what to make of Washington yet, but they seem improved so what the hey.
The Pick: Washington
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Marshall (1-2) @ #16 Tennessee (2-1)
Marshall's been tremendously disappointing this year. They're no Air Force.
The Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
4:30 PM
#7 West Virginia (3-0) @ East Carolina (1-2)
I'm only giving this 4 confidence because I finally admitted WVU could go undefeated, which usually means they'll lose this week.
The Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
Air Force (0-1) @ Wyoming (1-2)
Air Force looked good at Tennessee, but I have my concerns about small sample size. Wyoming murdered Utah State, and played Boise and Virginia close, so I give them the edge at home.
The Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
North Carolina A&T @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-2)
If SMU can beat a I-AA, sure, why not.
The Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3
UTEP (1-1) @ New Mexico (1-2)
UNM lost to Portland State, so they're not any good. UTEP should win this despite the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience.
The Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
Washington State (2-1) @ Stanford (0-3)
I don't think Stanford is this bad, but they still have absolutely no defense. Wazzou's been underwhelming, but they should be able to put up some yardage here.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
North Texas (1-2) @ Akron (1-2)
Akron's been MAC-tastically inconsistent, but if North Texas can only managed 89 yards against Tulsa, I think the Zips'll win this one.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-3) @ Maryland (2-1)
Maryland'll pick up another win before they start ACC play and get absolutely whooped. Good for them.
The Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (3-0) @ Mississippi (1-2)
3-0? Really? Wake didn't impress me at all against UConn, and while Ole Miss has been inconsistent, they have the talent to win here. Especially at home.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 2
Cal Poly @ San Jose State (1-1)
While this would be a hilarious letdown, I'll be nice.
The Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
North Dakota State @ Ball State (1-2)
Ball State's a fine MAC team, even if they have no secondary.
The Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (2-1) @ #14 Oklahoma (2-1)
Defensive concerns aside, OU should obviously be fine here.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Army (1-2) @ Baylor (1-2)
Army almost beat Texas A&M, but Baylor still was able to keep it close at Wazzou without a rushing game. Army can't stop anyone from running, so if Baylor is able to get anything going on the ground, which they should, the Bears should win at home.
The Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (0-3) @ South Carolina (2-1)
It remains to be seen if South Carolina is that bad. FAU is one of the worst teams in I-A, so that will continue.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
South Florida (3-0) @ Kansas (2-1)
I normally don't take stock in turnovers, but KU QB Kerry Meier has proven himself to be quite interception-prone. USF has a good defense and, apparently, an offense to speak of, so I give them the nod here.
The Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Louisiana Tech (1-1) @ Texas A&M (3-0)
Army may be better than Louisiana Tech, so the Bulldogs won't be much of a threat, even if A&M doesn't appear to be very good.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
Miami of Ohio (0-3) @ Syracuse (1-2)
The RedHawks have been better than that 0-3 record. I think Syracuse may have used up all their offense against Illinois, and pretty much consider that game an abberation.
The Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
Mississippi State (0-3) @ UAB (1-2)
Mississippi State may have a worse offense than Syracuse.
The Pick: UAB
Confidence: 3
Temple (0-3) @ Western Michigan (2-1)
It's Temple.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 4
Southeastern Louisiana @ Texas Tech (2-1)
Tech should put up 90 or so, but I think they actually might not be able to stop the SELA offense.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5
McNeese State @ Toledo (1-2)
Yawn.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 5
Tennessee State @ Vanderbilt (0-3)
YAWWWWWWWN.
The Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 5
7:10 PM
Troy (1-2) @ #19 Nebraska (2-1)
Troy could win the Sun Belt. There's a minor chance of a letdown and an upset, but the Troy offense seems too turnover-prone for it to happen.
The Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
Kentucky (2-1) @ #3 Florida (3-0)
Splat.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
#1 USC (3-0) @ Arizona (2-1)
Arizona's a year off. Arizona could show up and keep it competitive for a while, but USC'll eventually overwhelm them.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Tulane (1-1) @ #8 LSU (2-1)
Tulane looks decent. Decent is not good, nor is it good enough here.
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#15 Notre Dame (2-1) @ #20 Michigan State (3-0)
This one will be a fun shootout. Unfortunately, if the Penn State defense can't disrupt the UND offense, I don't think Michigan State will be able to. Michigan State is at home, however, and they could easily pull off the "upset", but I see Notre Dame winning, again, a fun shootout.
The Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
Hawaii (1-1) @ #21 Boise State (3-0)
Ooh, this should be a WACtastic shootout. Boise has their defensive concerns, but Hawaii has more. Plus the game's at Boise.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
#25 Boston College (3-0) @ NC State (1-2)
BC should finally get their definite win here. NCSU deserves nothing more than this sentence.
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4
Arkansas State (1-1) @ SMU (1-2)
Wow, SMU kind of has an offense. Arkansas State has a better one, however. AND Arkansas State has a great safety.
The Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Utah (2-1) @ San Diego State (0-2)
An intriguing game. SDSU looked bad against Wisconsin, but so did Utah against UCLA (before beating up and Utah State and a I-AA that escapes me). This could go either way, but I'll go with my preseason favorite.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
Oklahoma State (3-0) @ Houston (3-0)
Both teams have played light enough schedules where it's not really clear where they stand. OK State isn't supposed to be above mediocre this year, however, and Houston is at home with that great offense.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
Idaho (1-2) @ Oregon State (1-1)
Idaho's improved, but not enough to win at Oregon State. Teams are probably closer than one would figure, though.
The Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
Week 4 Rundown: Thursday
To get it in...
Virginia (1-2) @ Georgia Tech (2-1)
Virginia? Very bad. Georgia Tech has a pretty good defense, and if WMU can stop UVA, the Yellow Jackets can.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 4
Virginia (1-2) @ Georgia Tech (2-1)
Virginia? Very bad. Georgia Tech has a pretty good defense, and if WMU can stop UVA, the Yellow Jackets can.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 4
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
The Feely Top 25: After Week 3
#1 USC (#1 LW, Week 3: W vs. Nebraska 28-10) - Ho hum. John David Booty, very good. Running game, fine even without Reggie Bush's FRESNO STATE-BEATING SPEED AND PLAYMAKING ABILITY! Schedule to go undefeated. Yep.
#2 Ohio State (#2, W vs. Cincinnati 37-7) - Looked good as ever. I'm beginning to buy into a lot of the teams below them more, but those teams didn't beat Texas at home.
#3 Florida (#3, W @ Tennessee 21-20) - Who knows in the SEC, but I still think Florida is the most talented team in the conference. DT Marcus Thomas has been suspended, and superfrosh WR Percy Harvin is temporarily injured, so there are some concerns down the road. But for now, they remain here.
#4 Auburn (#4, W vs. LSU 7-3) - Big win, great team, still like Florida more. So there.
#5 Michigan (#8, W @ Notre Dame 47-21) - Rushing and defense, rushing and defense. LaMarr Woodley is an unstoppable beast of death. Good QB, great running game, scary defense, if I wanted to, I could probably put them #1.
#6 Texas (#7, W @ Rice 52-7) - Still pretty far and away the class of the Big 12. But, hey, it's Rice.
#7 West Virginia (#10, W vs. Maryland 45-24) - God, they could really go undefeated. Saying that means they won't now, but still.
#8 LSU (#5, L @ Auburn 3-7) - Could've won, I still consider them about the same level of Florida and Auburn, but now obviously a bit below.
#9 Iowa (#11, W vs. Iowa State 27-17) - Drew Tate? Very good! I'm probably underrating Iowa State, but that they didn't rebound from the horrible Syracuse game by bludgeoning their opponent to death tempers my National Title darkhorse expectations.
#10 Georgia (#19, W vs. UAB 34-0) - Probably too high, but who else is there? So many other teams lost this week, and god, that defense.
#11 Louisville (#12, W vs. Miami 31-7) - Those backups schooled Miami, but I still don't like this team nearly as much without Bush AND Brohm. Duh.
#12 Oregon (#17, W vs. Oklahoma 34-33) - Given the win, but they still gained 533 yards. That offense can hang with anyone, and they've impressed more than...
#13 Cal (#16, W vs. Portland State 42-16) - They gave up over 300 yards to Portland State, so there goes that.
#14 Oklahoma (#9, L @ Oregon 33-34) - Paul Thompson is decent enough to win a national title with on rushing and defense. Unfortunately, Adrian Peterson only does one of those things.
#15 Notre Dame (#6, L vs. Michigan 21-47) - Bahahahahahahahaha.
#16 Tennessee (#15, L vs. Florida 20-21) - The offense looked pretty bad, but I attribute that to playing Florida. A solid #5 in the SEC.
#17 Clemson (#23, W @ Florida State 27-20) - Wow, a highly touted ACC team with offense, how bout that. Should be 3-0, and would probably be #9 or #10 if that were the case.
#18 Virginia Tech (#20, W vs. Duke 36-0) - Way to beat Duke.
#19 Nebraska (#18, L @ USC 10-28) - Gave it a go, but what can you do. Iowa State, Missouri and Kansas are good enough to give them trouble, but they should still roll in the Big 12 North.
#20 Michigan State (NR, W @ Pittsburgh 38-23) - Drew Stanton's as good as a QB as anyone, and the running game's pretty great too. Still some concerns on defense, but too good to ignore.
#21 Boise State (#22, W @ Wyoming 17-10) - Not a good game by any means, but still the best non-BCS team around.
#22 TCU (#24, W vs. Texas Tech 12-3) - Underwhelming, still could go underfeated. See what I did there?
#23 Alabama (NR, W vs. Louisiana-Monroe 41-7) - Good defense, and they kinda have an offense.
#24 Florida State (#13, L vs. Clemson 20-27) - Good defense, and they absolutely do not have an offense.
#25 Boston College (NR, W vs. BYU 30-23) - Still don't like them this year, but fuckers keep winnin'.
OUT:
#14 Miami (L @ Louisville 7-31) - See Florida State, add a whole bunch of profanity and something about a lame duck coach.
#21 Arizona State (W @ Colorado 21-3) - Not impressive at all, taking them out of here early before Cal, Oregon and USC kill them.
#25 Penn State (W vs. Youngstown State 37-3) - That UND loss looks a lot worse now. Also, Youngstown State?
#2 Ohio State (#2, W vs. Cincinnati 37-7) - Looked good as ever. I'm beginning to buy into a lot of the teams below them more, but those teams didn't beat Texas at home.
#3 Florida (#3, W @ Tennessee 21-20) - Who knows in the SEC, but I still think Florida is the most talented team in the conference. DT Marcus Thomas has been suspended, and superfrosh WR Percy Harvin is temporarily injured, so there are some concerns down the road. But for now, they remain here.
#4 Auburn (#4, W vs. LSU 7-3) - Big win, great team, still like Florida more. So there.
#5 Michigan (#8, W @ Notre Dame 47-21) - Rushing and defense, rushing and defense. LaMarr Woodley is an unstoppable beast of death. Good QB, great running game, scary defense, if I wanted to, I could probably put them #1.
#6 Texas (#7, W @ Rice 52-7) - Still pretty far and away the class of the Big 12. But, hey, it's Rice.
#7 West Virginia (#10, W vs. Maryland 45-24) - God, they could really go undefeated. Saying that means they won't now, but still.
#8 LSU (#5, L @ Auburn 3-7) - Could've won, I still consider them about the same level of Florida and Auburn, but now obviously a bit below.
#9 Iowa (#11, W vs. Iowa State 27-17) - Drew Tate? Very good! I'm probably underrating Iowa State, but that they didn't rebound from the horrible Syracuse game by bludgeoning their opponent to death tempers my National Title darkhorse expectations.
#10 Georgia (#19, W vs. UAB 34-0) - Probably too high, but who else is there? So many other teams lost this week, and god, that defense.
#11 Louisville (#12, W vs. Miami 31-7) - Those backups schooled Miami, but I still don't like this team nearly as much without Bush AND Brohm. Duh.
#12 Oregon (#17, W vs. Oklahoma 34-33) - Given the win, but they still gained 533 yards. That offense can hang with anyone, and they've impressed more than...
#13 Cal (#16, W vs. Portland State 42-16) - They gave up over 300 yards to Portland State, so there goes that.
#14 Oklahoma (#9, L @ Oregon 33-34) - Paul Thompson is decent enough to win a national title with on rushing and defense. Unfortunately, Adrian Peterson only does one of those things.
#15 Notre Dame (#6, L vs. Michigan 21-47) - Bahahahahahahahaha.
#16 Tennessee (#15, L vs. Florida 20-21) - The offense looked pretty bad, but I attribute that to playing Florida. A solid #5 in the SEC.
#17 Clemson (#23, W @ Florida State 27-20) - Wow, a highly touted ACC team with offense, how bout that. Should be 3-0, and would probably be #9 or #10 if that were the case.
#18 Virginia Tech (#20, W vs. Duke 36-0) - Way to beat Duke.
#19 Nebraska (#18, L @ USC 10-28) - Gave it a go, but what can you do. Iowa State, Missouri and Kansas are good enough to give them trouble, but they should still roll in the Big 12 North.
#20 Michigan State (NR, W @ Pittsburgh 38-23) - Drew Stanton's as good as a QB as anyone, and the running game's pretty great too. Still some concerns on defense, but too good to ignore.
#21 Boise State (#22, W @ Wyoming 17-10) - Not a good game by any means, but still the best non-BCS team around.
#22 TCU (#24, W vs. Texas Tech 12-3) - Underwhelming, still could go underfeated. See what I did there?
#23 Alabama (NR, W vs. Louisiana-Monroe 41-7) - Good defense, and they kinda have an offense.
#24 Florida State (#13, L vs. Clemson 20-27) - Good defense, and they absolutely do not have an offense.
#25 Boston College (NR, W vs. BYU 30-23) - Still don't like them this year, but fuckers keep winnin'.
OUT:
#14 Miami (L @ Louisville 7-31) - See Florida State, add a whole bunch of profanity and something about a lame duck coach.
#21 Arizona State (W @ Colorado 21-3) - Not impressive at all, taking them out of here early before Cal, Oregon and USC kill them.
#25 Penn State (W vs. Youngstown State 37-3) - That UND loss looks a lot worse now. Also, Youngstown State?
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Week 3 Recap: The Rest
Same alphabetical order, but the format'll be a lot more informal now. I'll be covering what I feel like, so that hopefully means a lot less comments on how Florida International did against a I-AA.
Central Michigan 24, Akron 21
Hooray MAC parity! CMU's Josh Gordy had a 100-yard INT return, good for him. QB Luke Getsy was both the highlight and the lowlight for Akron, with 375 yards and 3 TD passes, but also 3 picks. Akron should've and would've won this one without turnovers, but CMU is as legit as anyone in the conference this year.
Alabama 41, Louisiana-Monroe 7
Not much to say about this domination, but after single-handedly outgaining Kansas last week, ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster only had 85 all-purpose yards and the Warhawks' lone rushing TD.
Arizona 28, Stephen F. Austin 10
This was close for a while. Arizona RB Chris Jennings: 26 carries, 201 yards, 2 TD. Good for him, especially since the passing game was less than stellar. Arizona may be further away than previously thought.
Arkansas 21, Vanderbilt 19
If not for some Vandy XP woes (unless they went for a fake FG 2-pt. conversion), this would've gone to OT. Vandy actually outgained Arkansas here 445-417, and Vandy QB Chris Nickson (12/26, 124, TD passing, 74 and 2 TD rushing) seems to have gotten his turnovers under control. Or it could be not playing Alabama and Michigan. Mitch Mustain had 224 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT on 13/20 passing, which is cause for optimism for Razorback fans, but like Arizona, the team's probably a year away from being the sleeper everyone thought.
Texas A&M 28, Army 24
Good day for TAMU RB Jovorskie Lane (101 yards, 3 TD). Rest of the team, not so much. If not for Army QB David Pevoto's 3 picks, this could've been a different result. Army showed flashes of what made me thought they could be improved this year, but based on their performance so far this year, this game more likely means Texas A&M is going to have another down year.
Purdue 38, Ball State 28
Well, the BSU secondary isn't stopping anyone, as they gave up 416 yards and 3 TDs to Curtis Painter. They did get 2 picks, but still.
Washington State 17, Baylor 15
Baylor again has no rushing game (32 yards). Both teams fumbled twice, and while each QB had over 250 yards, both had more INTs than TDs. Baylor's probably improved, but that lack of a rushing game means they'll probably stay in the Big 12 cellar. Wazzou will likely be better than Stanford.
Boston College 30, BYU 23 (2 OT)
BYU QB John Beck had a huge 436 passing, but his 1/2 TD/INT ratio, including the game-ending pick, was a killer. On the BC side, the running game had a good YPC (5.5 for Whitworth, 6.1 for Callender), but Matt Ryan still got 48 attempts, resulting in 356 yards and a 2/2 TD/INT. I still don't think BC is anything special, but they keep on winning.
Northern Illinois 31, Buffalo 13
From my preview: The NIU secondary's been weak, so Buffalo QB Drew Willy may have a good day, but Garrett Wolfe should run for another 200 or so.
From the game: Drew Willy - 25/41, 250, TD. Garrett Wolfe - 263 rushing yards, 2 TD.
Also, about time the Huskies won one.
South Florida 24, Central Florida 17
USF somehow had 474 total yards, 375 of which were QB Matt Grothe, between rushing and passing. Sadly, UCF had 384 total, so Grothe did not pull a Kinsmon Lancaster. If USF keeps this up, well...watch out Connecticut. And maybe Rutgers.
Wake Forest 24, Connecticut 13
To C&P what I've said elsewhere:
-Hernandez was frustratingly inconsistent. His final line didn't look too bad, but in between the occasional flashes of above-averageness, he was throwing into coverage and holding onto the ball too long for most of the game. His two turnovers, the INT that got returned for a TD, and a later fumble, both came within the red zone and pretty much killed any momentum UConn could've built. This would lead to recurring "BON-I-SLAW-SKI" chants in the student section.
-Larry Taylor? Pretty great, and the only player who really got the student section excited all game.
-Terry Caulley? Also great, with 5.5 yards per carry. No idea why he didn't get more touches.
-The defense looked alright overall. They gave up a lot of 10 or so yard passes for Wake first downs, but they rarely let Wake get close enough for a FG. The last Wake TD came after UConn had already turned it over on downs deep in their own territory, so ignore that.
-Aaaand Nuzie. In my one meeting with him, he borrowed a pencil from me and then left without giving it back, so I've jokingly had it in for him for a while. After UConn got the second TD to get it to 14-13, I yelled "GO FOR TWO!", and lo and behold, he shanked the XP. Nuzie also missed a close FG later, but more people saw that coming. My friend said "The way Nuzie's set up, he's going to kick it to the right," and, shock, he kicked it wide right.
-Basically, it was a winnable game and a bad loss. If Nuzie makes the XP and the FG and nothing else changes, it's a 17-17 game, since UConn wouldn't have gone for it deep in their territory in the 4th. And if Hernandez doesn't have those two bad turnovers early, Wake's out the defensive TD and momentum could've shifted towards a UConn blowout.
East Carolina 35, Memphis 20
Memphis QB Martin Hankins threw FIVE interceptions. Whoops!
Northwestern 14, Eastern Michigan 6
What the cock? Northwestern somehow re-found their defense, only giving up 163 yards, with a pathetic 47 through the air. I now have no idea what to think about Northwestern, but I suppose they'll be too inconsistent to finish higher than ninth in the Big Ten.
Washington 21, Fresno State 20
BAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Sorry, but I really don't like Fresno. The past few years they've been favored mid-majors by beating lower-tier BCS teams like, well, Washington, but they still haven't, you know, won their own conference. This was obviously a winnable game, and Bulldogs RB Dwayne Wright (136, 2 TD) is legit, but still. Great game by UW QB Isaiah Stanback, who had 151 and 2 TD passing and led the Huskies in rushing with 91 and a score.
Hawaii 42, UNLV 13
Amazingly, Hawaii not only outrushed UNLV, but outrushed UNLV 214-39. UNLV's at least a year away, yep.
Syracuse 31, Illinois 21
Illinois outgained Syracuse, but still, they gave up 31. 14 of those points came off of fumbles (one by Cuse, one by Illinois), but again, 31 to Syracuse. Illini QB Juice Williams had a performance almost as awesome as his name, with 227 yards and 2 TD on 9/16 passing.
Southern Illinois 35, Indiana 28
Salukis QB Nick Hill: 10/18, 142, 4 TD. Indiana sucks.
Toledo 37, Kansas 31 (2 OT)
Kansas outgained 419-254, but the problem was KU QB Kerry Meier: 23/41, 243 yards, 2 TD, and 4! INT. Whoops. Kansas looks to actually be solid this year, and Toledo should hopefully get some momentum off this.
Kansas State 23, Marshall 7
Marshall only had 182 total yards. They look to be way down this year in a competitive C-USA. Hoo boy.
Kent State 16, Miami of Ohio 14
The heck? Star of the game: Kent QB Julian Edelman, with 244 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT on 14/22 passing, and a rushing TD.
Kentucky 31, Mississippi 14
The Rebels actually outgained Kentucky 410-400, but Mississippi's 4 fumbles killed them. Kentucky is again surprisingly a passing team, as QB Andre' Woodson had 290 yards and 3 TD. Mississippi, like Arizona and Arkansas, is probably a while off.
Michigan State 38, Pittsburgh 23
Michigan State may be putting it together. Drew Stanton didn't have a big day (198, 2/1 TD/INT passing, 105 and a TD rushing), but the Spartans pretty much outclassed Pitt.
Minnesota 62, Temple 0
Temple is fucking awful.
Tulane 32, Mississippi State 29
The Bulldogs have kind of a passing game! Omarr Conner had 241 yards and a pick on 15/25 passing, and was MSU's leading rusher with 71 and a score. Tulane QB Lester Ricard had 298 yards and 4 TD passing, and RB Matt Forte ran for 170 and a score. However, Green Wave K Ross Thevenot only made 2 of 5 XPs.
Missouri 27, New Mexico 17
Mizzou QB Chase Daniel (25/36, 199, 1/1 TD/INT, rushing TD) wasn't spectacular, but RB Tony Temple had 168 on the ground.
Navy 37, Stanford 9
Stanford had 377 total yards, so it wasn't a horrible offensive effort or anything, but Navy did what they do and ran for 383.
Southern Miss 37, NC State 17
NCSU somewhat amazingly gave up 472 total yards. USM RB Damion Fletcher had a huge day, with 177 and 3 TD.
North Carolina 45, Furman 42
JOE DAILEY WATCH!: DNP? Aw. The defense actually let down UNC here, as the Tar Heels were outgained 539-454, and Furman had 5 TD on the ground. Well, at least they won.
Tulsa 28, North Texas 3
UNT had 89 total yards. 89.
Rutgers 24, Ohio 7
RU QB Mike Teel had 3 picks, but once again, the running game dominated for Rutgers. Ray Rice had 190 yards and 2 TD, actually outgaining Ohio's 186 total yards.
Wisconsin 14, San Diego State 0
Horrible offensive showing by SDSU, who only had 153 yards. Pat Hill Jr. ran all over the Aztec D, gaining 184 and a TD.
South Carolina 27, Wofford 20
South Carolina was outgained 397-383. That is...quite not good. Especially for a Spurrier team.
Utah 48, Utah State 0
Another horrible showing by the USU offense. 98 yards. I thought they could make some noise this year, but jesus was I wrong.
Western Michigan 17, Virginia 10
Virginia won the yardage battle 298-203, but UVA QB Kevin McCabe's 2 INT killed them. WMU QB Thomas Peregrin only had 40 yards passing, but RB Mark Bonds's 118 on the ground was obviously enough for the Broncos.
Central Michigan 24, Akron 21
Hooray MAC parity! CMU's Josh Gordy had a 100-yard INT return, good for him. QB Luke Getsy was both the highlight and the lowlight for Akron, with 375 yards and 3 TD passes, but also 3 picks. Akron should've and would've won this one without turnovers, but CMU is as legit as anyone in the conference this year.
Alabama 41, Louisiana-Monroe 7
Not much to say about this domination, but after single-handedly outgaining Kansas last week, ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster only had 85 all-purpose yards and the Warhawks' lone rushing TD.
Arizona 28, Stephen F. Austin 10
This was close for a while. Arizona RB Chris Jennings: 26 carries, 201 yards, 2 TD. Good for him, especially since the passing game was less than stellar. Arizona may be further away than previously thought.
Arkansas 21, Vanderbilt 19
If not for some Vandy XP woes (unless they went for a fake FG 2-pt. conversion), this would've gone to OT. Vandy actually outgained Arkansas here 445-417, and Vandy QB Chris Nickson (12/26, 124, TD passing, 74 and 2 TD rushing) seems to have gotten his turnovers under control. Or it could be not playing Alabama and Michigan. Mitch Mustain had 224 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT on 13/20 passing, which is cause for optimism for Razorback fans, but like Arizona, the team's probably a year away from being the sleeper everyone thought.
Texas A&M 28, Army 24
Good day for TAMU RB Jovorskie Lane (101 yards, 3 TD). Rest of the team, not so much. If not for Army QB David Pevoto's 3 picks, this could've been a different result. Army showed flashes of what made me thought they could be improved this year, but based on their performance so far this year, this game more likely means Texas A&M is going to have another down year.
Purdue 38, Ball State 28
Well, the BSU secondary isn't stopping anyone, as they gave up 416 yards and 3 TDs to Curtis Painter. They did get 2 picks, but still.
Washington State 17, Baylor 15
Baylor again has no rushing game (32 yards). Both teams fumbled twice, and while each QB had over 250 yards, both had more INTs than TDs. Baylor's probably improved, but that lack of a rushing game means they'll probably stay in the Big 12 cellar. Wazzou will likely be better than Stanford.
Boston College 30, BYU 23 (2 OT)
BYU QB John Beck had a huge 436 passing, but his 1/2 TD/INT ratio, including the game-ending pick, was a killer. On the BC side, the running game had a good YPC (5.5 for Whitworth, 6.1 for Callender), but Matt Ryan still got 48 attempts, resulting in 356 yards and a 2/2 TD/INT. I still don't think BC is anything special, but they keep on winning.
Northern Illinois 31, Buffalo 13
From my preview: The NIU secondary's been weak, so Buffalo QB Drew Willy may have a good day, but Garrett Wolfe should run for another 200 or so.
From the game: Drew Willy - 25/41, 250, TD. Garrett Wolfe - 263 rushing yards, 2 TD.
Also, about time the Huskies won one.
South Florida 24, Central Florida 17
USF somehow had 474 total yards, 375 of which were QB Matt Grothe, between rushing and passing. Sadly, UCF had 384 total, so Grothe did not pull a Kinsmon Lancaster. If USF keeps this up, well...watch out Connecticut. And maybe Rutgers.
Wake Forest 24, Connecticut 13
To C&P what I've said elsewhere:
-Hernandez was frustratingly inconsistent. His final line didn't look too bad, but in between the occasional flashes of above-averageness, he was throwing into coverage and holding onto the ball too long for most of the game. His two turnovers, the INT that got returned for a TD, and a later fumble, both came within the red zone and pretty much killed any momentum UConn could've built. This would lead to recurring "BON-I-SLAW-SKI" chants in the student section.
-Larry Taylor? Pretty great, and the only player who really got the student section excited all game.
-Terry Caulley? Also great, with 5.5 yards per carry. No idea why he didn't get more touches.
-The defense looked alright overall. They gave up a lot of 10 or so yard passes for Wake first downs, but they rarely let Wake get close enough for a FG. The last Wake TD came after UConn had already turned it over on downs deep in their own territory, so ignore that.
-Aaaand Nuzie. In my one meeting with him, he borrowed a pencil from me and then left without giving it back, so I've jokingly had it in for him for a while. After UConn got the second TD to get it to 14-13, I yelled "GO FOR TWO!", and lo and behold, he shanked the XP. Nuzie also missed a close FG later, but more people saw that coming. My friend said "The way Nuzie's set up, he's going to kick it to the right," and, shock, he kicked it wide right.
-Basically, it was a winnable game and a bad loss. If Nuzie makes the XP and the FG and nothing else changes, it's a 17-17 game, since UConn wouldn't have gone for it deep in their territory in the 4th. And if Hernandez doesn't have those two bad turnovers early, Wake's out the defensive TD and momentum could've shifted towards a UConn blowout.
East Carolina 35, Memphis 20
Memphis QB Martin Hankins threw FIVE interceptions. Whoops!
Northwestern 14, Eastern Michigan 6
What the cock? Northwestern somehow re-found their defense, only giving up 163 yards, with a pathetic 47 through the air. I now have no idea what to think about Northwestern, but I suppose they'll be too inconsistent to finish higher than ninth in the Big Ten.
Washington 21, Fresno State 20
BAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Sorry, but I really don't like Fresno. The past few years they've been favored mid-majors by beating lower-tier BCS teams like, well, Washington, but they still haven't, you know, won their own conference. This was obviously a winnable game, and Bulldogs RB Dwayne Wright (136, 2 TD) is legit, but still. Great game by UW QB Isaiah Stanback, who had 151 and 2 TD passing and led the Huskies in rushing with 91 and a score.
Hawaii 42, UNLV 13
Amazingly, Hawaii not only outrushed UNLV, but outrushed UNLV 214-39. UNLV's at least a year away, yep.
Syracuse 31, Illinois 21
Illinois outgained Syracuse, but still, they gave up 31. 14 of those points came off of fumbles (one by Cuse, one by Illinois), but again, 31 to Syracuse. Illini QB Juice Williams had a performance almost as awesome as his name, with 227 yards and 2 TD on 9/16 passing.
Southern Illinois 35, Indiana 28
Salukis QB Nick Hill: 10/18, 142, 4 TD. Indiana sucks.
Toledo 37, Kansas 31 (2 OT)
Kansas outgained 419-254, but the problem was KU QB Kerry Meier: 23/41, 243 yards, 2 TD, and 4! INT. Whoops. Kansas looks to actually be solid this year, and Toledo should hopefully get some momentum off this.
Kansas State 23, Marshall 7
Marshall only had 182 total yards. They look to be way down this year in a competitive C-USA. Hoo boy.
Kent State 16, Miami of Ohio 14
The heck? Star of the game: Kent QB Julian Edelman, with 244 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT on 14/22 passing, and a rushing TD.
Kentucky 31, Mississippi 14
The Rebels actually outgained Kentucky 410-400, but Mississippi's 4 fumbles killed them. Kentucky is again surprisingly a passing team, as QB Andre' Woodson had 290 yards and 3 TD. Mississippi, like Arizona and Arkansas, is probably a while off.
Michigan State 38, Pittsburgh 23
Michigan State may be putting it together. Drew Stanton didn't have a big day (198, 2/1 TD/INT passing, 105 and a TD rushing), but the Spartans pretty much outclassed Pitt.
Minnesota 62, Temple 0
Temple is fucking awful.
Tulane 32, Mississippi State 29
The Bulldogs have kind of a passing game! Omarr Conner had 241 yards and a pick on 15/25 passing, and was MSU's leading rusher with 71 and a score. Tulane QB Lester Ricard had 298 yards and 4 TD passing, and RB Matt Forte ran for 170 and a score. However, Green Wave K Ross Thevenot only made 2 of 5 XPs.
Missouri 27, New Mexico 17
Mizzou QB Chase Daniel (25/36, 199, 1/1 TD/INT, rushing TD) wasn't spectacular, but RB Tony Temple had 168 on the ground.
Navy 37, Stanford 9
Stanford had 377 total yards, so it wasn't a horrible offensive effort or anything, but Navy did what they do and ran for 383.
Southern Miss 37, NC State 17
NCSU somewhat amazingly gave up 472 total yards. USM RB Damion Fletcher had a huge day, with 177 and 3 TD.
North Carolina 45, Furman 42
JOE DAILEY WATCH!: DNP? Aw. The defense actually let down UNC here, as the Tar Heels were outgained 539-454, and Furman had 5 TD on the ground. Well, at least they won.
Tulsa 28, North Texas 3
UNT had 89 total yards. 89.
Rutgers 24, Ohio 7
RU QB Mike Teel had 3 picks, but once again, the running game dominated for Rutgers. Ray Rice had 190 yards and 2 TD, actually outgaining Ohio's 186 total yards.
Wisconsin 14, San Diego State 0
Horrible offensive showing by SDSU, who only had 153 yards. Pat Hill Jr. ran all over the Aztec D, gaining 184 and a TD.
South Carolina 27, Wofford 20
South Carolina was outgained 397-383. That is...quite not good. Especially for a Spurrier team.
Utah 48, Utah State 0
Another horrible showing by the USU offense. 98 yards. I thought they could make some noise this year, but jesus was I wrong.
Western Michigan 17, Virginia 10
Virginia won the yardage battle 298-203, but UVA QB Kevin McCabe's 2 INT killed them. WMU QB Thomas Peregrin only had 40 yards passing, but RB Mark Bonds's 118 on the ground was obviously enough for the Broncos.
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Week 3 Recap: The Top 25
So, my record so far:
Week 1: 64-9 (.877)
Week 2: 54-10 (.844)
Week 3: 49-13 (.790)
Overall: 167-32 (.799)
#18 Nebraska @ #1 USC
My Prediction: USC
Final Score: USC 28, Nebraska 10
Nebraska gave it a go, but could only get 236 total yards. USC QB John David Booty? Really good. 25/36, 257 yards, 3 TD good. Not much to say except that USC officially established themselves as an upper-tier team.
Cincinnati @ #2 Ohio State
My Prediction: Ohio State
Final Score: Ohio State 37, Cincinnati 7
It took a while, but the Buckeye offense eventually got humming and got 474 total yards. Troy Smith had another good day, with 203 yards and 2 TD on 21/30 passing. RB Antonio Pittman might've been the offensive MVP, however, with 155 yards and a TD. The Buckeye defense also stifled the Cincinnati running game, holding it to 56 yards.
#3 Florida @ #15 Tennessee
My Prediction: Florida
Final Score: Florida 21, Tennessee 20
Florida looked good on both sides of the ball. On offense, Chris Leak had 199 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT on 15/25 passing, while RB DeShawn Wynn had 104 on the ground. On defense, Tennessee only had 24 rushing yards, and Vols QB Erik Ainge threw 2 picks to Reggie Nelson. And, well, that pretty much sums up the game, I suppose.
#5 LSU @ #4 Auburn
My Prediction: LSU
Final Score: Auburn 7, LSU 3
LSU actually outgained Auburn 323-223, but obviously, nothing much was happening on either offensive end. And the only turnover was a Brandon Cox INT. JaMarcus Russell had 267 yards on 20/35 passing for LSU, and Auburn's Kenny Irons ran for 70, which is actually 14 more than the entire LSU team.
#8 Michigan @ #6 Notre Dame
My Prediction: Michigan
Final Score: Michigan 47, Notre Dame 21
Pretty much a complete depantsing. For Michigan's offense, Mike Hart ran for 124 and a TD, and WR Mario Manningham had his coming out party to the tune of 4 catches for 137 yards and 3 TD. UND QB Brady Quinn had 234 and 3 TD, but that doesn't look any good since he also threw 3 INT. And on his final play of the game, he got sacked, fumbled, and LaMarr Woodley ran it to the house. Michigan officially becomes a scary team.
#7 Texas @ Rice
My Prediction: Texas
Final Score: Texas 52, Rice 7
The expected annihilation. Only 37 rushing yards for Rice! The option is dead. Jamaal Charles ran for 109 and a TD, and Selvin Young ran for 101 and a score. Colt McCoy only threw 8 passes, 7 of which were completed, and 2 of which were touchdowns.
#9 Oklahoma @ #17 Oregon
My Prediction: Oklahoma
Final Score: Oregon 34, Oklahoma 33
OU got screwed on what turned out to be a crucial Oregon onside kick, but still really didn't deserve to win. Again, OU has no defense, and this time gave up 533 yards to the Ducks. Oregon QB Dennis Dixon had 341 and 2 TD on 26/41 passing (and had a rushing TD!), but gave up 2 picks. RB Jonathan Stewart also had a big day, running for 144 and a score. On the Sooner side of the ball, Paul Thompson is decent (13/23, 174, pass TD, rush TD), and Adrian Peterson? That guy is great (211 and a TD). So Oregon cements themselves as a very good team, and maybe even a NC contender?, while Oklahoma establishes that they have no defense and wouldn't have gone anywhere anyway. Whoops.
Maryland @ #10 West Virginia
My Prediction: West Virginia
Final Score: West Virginia 45, Maryland 24
Shocked that it was this close watching it, both in score and in yardage (404-345). But, yeah, Maryland was hilariously outclassed. Steve Slaton: 21 carries, 195 yards, 2 TD. So, Maryland's as bad as all the other ACC teams are this year, and West Virginia...might actually go undefeated. Which, now that I've said that, means they'll lose their next game.
Iowa State @ #11 Iowa
My Prediction: Iowa
Final Score: Iowa 27, Iowa State 17
HOORAY DREW TATE! 26/38 passing for 274 yards, 3 TD and a pick. Not much to say, as Iowa State gave it a go, led by QB Bret Meyer's 152 yards and a TD passing with 74 and a TD rushing.
#14 Miami @ #12 Louisville
My Prediction: Louisville
Final Score: Louisville 31, Miami 7
Well, Miami's in the shitter. Brian Brohm's hurt, but backup QB Hunter Cantwell had 3/4 passing for 113! yards and a TD. Kyle Wright statistically had a good night (20/34, 278 passing), but Miami got completely dominated. As for Louisville, with Bush AND Brohm out, who knows, even if they looked good here.
#23 Clemson @ #13 Florida State
My Prediction: Clemson
Final Score: Clemson 27, Florida State 20
Nine FSU points came off of blocked FG and blocked XP returns, so this wasn't as close as the score looks. Florida State only managed 226 yards, but, amazingly, had 124 yards rushing! Good for them. Except for the losing part. On the Clemson side, Will Proctor passed for 194 and a TD, and James Davis ran for 87 and 2 scores. FSU, also screwed. God, the ACC.
Portland State @ #16 California
My Prediction: California
Final Score: California 42, Portland State 16
The Cal defense gave up over 300 yards, so ehhhhhh. Marshawn Lynch ran for 112 and a score, Nate Longshore passed for 225 with a 2/1 TD/INT. Good for them.
UAB @ #19 Georgia
My Prediction: Georgia
Final Score: Georgia 34, UAB 0
Another day, another shutout. The UGA offense only had 296 total yards, but it was obviously more than enough. Matt Stafford only had 107 yards passing, but with 0 turnovers, that's good enough. Especially with that defense.
Duke @ #20 Virginia Tech
My Prediction: Virginia Tech
Final Score: Virginia Tech 36, Duke 0
Duke only gained 191 total yards. Tech QB Sean Glennon was the star of the show, with 301 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT.
#21 Arizona State @ Colorado
My Prediction: Arizona State
Final Score: Arizona State 21, Colorado 3
COLORADO BROKE 200 YARDS! Neither team looked that great. CU RB Hugh Charles had 109 yards, but nobody really did much else. ASU had two 80-yard rushers, Keegan Herring (82) and Ryan Torain (80, TD). Rudy Carpenter had 248 yards passing and 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions. So, ehhhhhhh.
#22 Boise State @ Wyoming
My Prediction: Boise State
Final Score: Boise State 17, Wyoming 10
BSU was shockingly outgained here, 251-246, and one of the Bronco TDs was off of an INT. Boise RB Ian Johnson was once again the star here, with 119 yards, and Jared Zabransky had 116 and a TD through the air.
Texas Tech @ #24 TCU
My Prediction: Texas Tech
Final Score: TCU 12, Texas Tech 3
FIELD GOAL TASTIC! Both offenses suck. TCU continues to underwhelm, hopefully they won't go undefeated.
Youngstown State @ #25 Penn State
My Prediction: Penn State
Final Score: Penn State 37, Youngstown State 3
Way to go, Nittany Lions. The running game dominated here for 403 yards, led by Tony Hunt's 143 and a TD. Anthony Morelli had 154 on 11/27 passing.
Week 1: 64-9 (.877)
Week 2: 54-10 (.844)
Week 3: 49-13 (.790)
Overall: 167-32 (.799)
#18 Nebraska @ #1 USC
My Prediction: USC
Final Score: USC 28, Nebraska 10
Nebraska gave it a go, but could only get 236 total yards. USC QB John David Booty? Really good. 25/36, 257 yards, 3 TD good. Not much to say except that USC officially established themselves as an upper-tier team.
Cincinnati @ #2 Ohio State
My Prediction: Ohio State
Final Score: Ohio State 37, Cincinnati 7
It took a while, but the Buckeye offense eventually got humming and got 474 total yards. Troy Smith had another good day, with 203 yards and 2 TD on 21/30 passing. RB Antonio Pittman might've been the offensive MVP, however, with 155 yards and a TD. The Buckeye defense also stifled the Cincinnati running game, holding it to 56 yards.
#3 Florida @ #15 Tennessee
My Prediction: Florida
Final Score: Florida 21, Tennessee 20
Florida looked good on both sides of the ball. On offense, Chris Leak had 199 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT on 15/25 passing, while RB DeShawn Wynn had 104 on the ground. On defense, Tennessee only had 24 rushing yards, and Vols QB Erik Ainge threw 2 picks to Reggie Nelson. And, well, that pretty much sums up the game, I suppose.
#5 LSU @ #4 Auburn
My Prediction: LSU
Final Score: Auburn 7, LSU 3
LSU actually outgained Auburn 323-223, but obviously, nothing much was happening on either offensive end. And the only turnover was a Brandon Cox INT. JaMarcus Russell had 267 yards on 20/35 passing for LSU, and Auburn's Kenny Irons ran for 70, which is actually 14 more than the entire LSU team.
#8 Michigan @ #6 Notre Dame
My Prediction: Michigan
Final Score: Michigan 47, Notre Dame 21
Pretty much a complete depantsing. For Michigan's offense, Mike Hart ran for 124 and a TD, and WR Mario Manningham had his coming out party to the tune of 4 catches for 137 yards and 3 TD. UND QB Brady Quinn had 234 and 3 TD, but that doesn't look any good since he also threw 3 INT. And on his final play of the game, he got sacked, fumbled, and LaMarr Woodley ran it to the house. Michigan officially becomes a scary team.
#7 Texas @ Rice
My Prediction: Texas
Final Score: Texas 52, Rice 7
The expected annihilation. Only 37 rushing yards for Rice! The option is dead. Jamaal Charles ran for 109 and a TD, and Selvin Young ran for 101 and a score. Colt McCoy only threw 8 passes, 7 of which were completed, and 2 of which were touchdowns.
#9 Oklahoma @ #17 Oregon
My Prediction: Oklahoma
Final Score: Oregon 34, Oklahoma 33
OU got screwed on what turned out to be a crucial Oregon onside kick, but still really didn't deserve to win. Again, OU has no defense, and this time gave up 533 yards to the Ducks. Oregon QB Dennis Dixon had 341 and 2 TD on 26/41 passing (and had a rushing TD!), but gave up 2 picks. RB Jonathan Stewart also had a big day, running for 144 and a score. On the Sooner side of the ball, Paul Thompson is decent (13/23, 174, pass TD, rush TD), and Adrian Peterson? That guy is great (211 and a TD). So Oregon cements themselves as a very good team, and maybe even a NC contender?, while Oklahoma establishes that they have no defense and wouldn't have gone anywhere anyway. Whoops.
Maryland @ #10 West Virginia
My Prediction: West Virginia
Final Score: West Virginia 45, Maryland 24
Shocked that it was this close watching it, both in score and in yardage (404-345). But, yeah, Maryland was hilariously outclassed. Steve Slaton: 21 carries, 195 yards, 2 TD. So, Maryland's as bad as all the other ACC teams are this year, and West Virginia...might actually go undefeated. Which, now that I've said that, means they'll lose their next game.
Iowa State @ #11 Iowa
My Prediction: Iowa
Final Score: Iowa 27, Iowa State 17
HOORAY DREW TATE! 26/38 passing for 274 yards, 3 TD and a pick. Not much to say, as Iowa State gave it a go, led by QB Bret Meyer's 152 yards and a TD passing with 74 and a TD rushing.
#14 Miami @ #12 Louisville
My Prediction: Louisville
Final Score: Louisville 31, Miami 7
Well, Miami's in the shitter. Brian Brohm's hurt, but backup QB Hunter Cantwell had 3/4 passing for 113! yards and a TD. Kyle Wright statistically had a good night (20/34, 278 passing), but Miami got completely dominated. As for Louisville, with Bush AND Brohm out, who knows, even if they looked good here.
#23 Clemson @ #13 Florida State
My Prediction: Clemson
Final Score: Clemson 27, Florida State 20
Nine FSU points came off of blocked FG and blocked XP returns, so this wasn't as close as the score looks. Florida State only managed 226 yards, but, amazingly, had 124 yards rushing! Good for them. Except for the losing part. On the Clemson side, Will Proctor passed for 194 and a TD, and James Davis ran for 87 and 2 scores. FSU, also screwed. God, the ACC.
Portland State @ #16 California
My Prediction: California
Final Score: California 42, Portland State 16
The Cal defense gave up over 300 yards, so ehhhhhh. Marshawn Lynch ran for 112 and a score, Nate Longshore passed for 225 with a 2/1 TD/INT. Good for them.
UAB @ #19 Georgia
My Prediction: Georgia
Final Score: Georgia 34, UAB 0
Another day, another shutout. The UGA offense only had 296 total yards, but it was obviously more than enough. Matt Stafford only had 107 yards passing, but with 0 turnovers, that's good enough. Especially with that defense.
Duke @ #20 Virginia Tech
My Prediction: Virginia Tech
Final Score: Virginia Tech 36, Duke 0
Duke only gained 191 total yards. Tech QB Sean Glennon was the star of the show, with 301 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT.
#21 Arizona State @ Colorado
My Prediction: Arizona State
Final Score: Arizona State 21, Colorado 3
COLORADO BROKE 200 YARDS! Neither team looked that great. CU RB Hugh Charles had 109 yards, but nobody really did much else. ASU had two 80-yard rushers, Keegan Herring (82) and Ryan Torain (80, TD). Rudy Carpenter had 248 yards passing and 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions. So, ehhhhhhh.
#22 Boise State @ Wyoming
My Prediction: Boise State
Final Score: Boise State 17, Wyoming 10
BSU was shockingly outgained here, 251-246, and one of the Bronco TDs was off of an INT. Boise RB Ian Johnson was once again the star here, with 119 yards, and Jared Zabransky had 116 and a TD through the air.
Texas Tech @ #24 TCU
My Prediction: Texas Tech
Final Score: TCU 12, Texas Tech 3
FIELD GOAL TASTIC! Both offenses suck. TCU continues to underwhelm, hopefully they won't go undefeated.
Youngstown State @ #25 Penn State
My Prediction: Penn State
Final Score: Penn State 37, Youngstown State 3
Way to go, Nittany Lions. The running game dominated here for 403 yards, led by Tony Hunt's 143 and a TD. Anthony Morelli had 154 on 11/27 passing.
Friday, September 15, 2006
Week 3 Rundown: Saturday
Well, this was a bad week for me to be exhausted. YOUR WEEK 3 RUNDOWN:
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
BYU (1-1) @ Boston College (2-0)
Thoughts: BYU, especially QB John Beck, had a big day against Tulsa in week 2. However, BC had a better week. In Provo, maybe, but here?
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence (out of 5): 3
Cincinnati (1-1) @ #2 Ohio State (2-0)
Thoughts: Duh.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (2-0) @ Connecticut (1-0)
Thoughts: I'll be here! A really odd situation with Wake. Their senior QB broke his arm and Wake subsequently almost lost to Duke. So you'd think that was because of the passing game, right? No, it was the running game, Wake Forest's bread and butter, that let the Demon Deacons down. Wake RB Micah Andrews may rebound in this game, but I still think the UConn secondary does enough to stop Wake through the air. I still have some concerns about the Husky offense, but if Duke can put up 13, they should be fine at home.
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Duke (0-2) @ #20 Virginia Tech (2-0)
Thoughts: Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis is probably better than Joe Dailey, but the Blue Devils still have no chance.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (0-2) @ Illinois (1-1)
Thoughts: Wow, someone has to win this one. The Illini have a running game, but if QB Tim Brasic throws for only 46 against Rutgers, I can't imagine them winning, even at home. Hopefully Syracuse's defense can score some points, since I'm not sure the offense will do much.
The Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (2-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-0)
Thoughts: Michigan State is inconsistent as hell, and Pittsburgh has a good defense, but I think Drew Stanton and Javon Ringer will be too much. Tyler Palko will probably have a huge day as the Panthers keep trying to catch up.
The Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 2
12:05 PM
Iowa State (2-0) @ #11 Iowa (2-0)
Thoughts: ISU struggled to beat UNLV. Drew Tate is playing.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Arkansas (1-1) @ Vanderbilt (0-2)
Thoughts: Vandy's faced some tough defenses, but their offense still doesn't look any good. Even if they put some points on the board, I can't imagine Arkansas wouldn't put up more.
The Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Marshall (1-1) @ Kansas State (2-0)
Thoughts: Marshall hasn't looked good this year, even giving up 31 to Hofstra. Admittedly, KSU almost lost to Illinois State in week 1, but their thrashing of FAU makes me think they have things somewhere close to "together."
The Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Akron (1-1) @ Central Michigan (0-2)
Thoughts: CMU looked good losing to BC, so there's some hope here. Akron beat NC State last week, and while that doesn't mean much anymore, they should win this road game as well.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 3
Ball State (1-1) @ Purdue (2-0)
Thoughts: Purdue can run it, but the key is QB Curtis Painter vs. the Ball State secondary. Indiana third-stringer Kellen Lewis had a big game passing against Ball State. There you go.
The Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
UAB (1-1) @ #19 Georgia (2-0)
Thoughts: UAB's much better than expected, and Matt Stafford was horrible against South Carolina, so there's some intrigue here. I think the UGA running game will win it for them, however.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 4
1:30 PM
Troy (1-1) @ Georgia Tech (1-1)
Thoughts: The Troy offense still didn't look that impressive last week, despite the close score at FSU. The GT defense should also make Troy look bad, and on offense, they have Calvin Johnson.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (0-2) @ Northwestern (1-1)
Thoughts: Northwestern had the horrible loss to UNH last week, but that was mostly turnovers. EMU's looked decent, but if Northwestern doesn't keep turning it over, they should win easy here.
The Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 4
Kent State (0-2) @ Miami of Ohio (0-2)
Thoughts: Miami of Ohio's played two Big Ten teams. Kent State got shut down by Army.
The Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 4
Temple (0-2) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Thoughts: As much as I don't buy Minnesota this year, come on. It's Temple.
The Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
South Florida (2-0) @ Central Florida (1-1)
Thoughts: UCF got utterly depantsed against Florida, but USF's offense hasn't done much all year. USF's defense could have a good day, but I can't see this anemic Bulls offense beating a rival on the road.
The Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#5 LSU (2-0) @ #4 Auburn (2-0)
Thoughts: Ohhhh boy. Kenny Irons had a bad day against Mississippi State, while the LSU defense absolutely destroyed a decent Arizona team. If Irons had had a big day, I'd have no qualms about picking Auburn at home. But as it is, my gut says I should pick...
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 1
#22 Boise State (2-0) @ Wyoming (1-1)
Thoughts: Wyoming has some potential, but after BSU's utter destruction of Oregon State, I doubt the Cowboys will be able to show any.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#14 Miami (1-1) @ #12 Louisville (2-0)
Thoughts: Brian Brohm vs. the Miami secondary. Oooooh. Louisville's been good against the run, and Kyle Wright only looked mediocre against Florida A&M, so I think that'll be the difference. I could easily see the Miami pass D taking over, but I'm picking the "upset" for the time being.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
#8 Michigan (2-0) @ #6 Notre Dame (2-0)
Thoughts: GT looks to be a good defensive team, and Michigan looks to be better. I think Michigan can disrupt Brady Quinn, and then take over with the running game. Rushing and defense, rushing and defense.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 2
Ohio (2-0) @ Rutgers (2-0)
Thoughts: The Rutgers running game is insane right now, and I don't think Ohio is going to be the team to stop it.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
#9 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #17 Oregon (2-0)
Thoughts: Oklahoma's defense hasn't looked good at all, and while Oregon's win over Stanford looks a lot less impressive now, they've still been a good team. And they're at home. Basically, I have no reason for picking Oklahoma except that when conventional wisdom says the upset will happen, it usually won't. But that's enough for me.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 1
Youngstown State @ #25 Penn State (1-1)
Thoughts: PENGUINS!
The Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
San Diego State (0-1) @ Wisconsin (2-0)
Thoughts: Wisconsin's defense has looked suspect, but the Badgers offense, especially the running game, have looked good. If SDSU couldn't beat UTEP with The Jordan Palmer Interception Experience in full effect, they're not doing it here.
The Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
Western Michigan (1-1) @ Virginia (1-1)
Virginia only gained 241 against Wyoming, and could've lost if not for a missed XP in OT. WMU was also outgained in their win against Toledo, but a lucky win against a top MAC team is better than a lucky win against Wyoming, especially when you're an ACC team.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Southern Illinois @ Indiana (2-0)
I'm as shocked as you are that Indiana will probably start the year 3-0.
The Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 3
5:00 PM
Baylor (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
Baylor should be much improved, but Wazzou is coming off of a 651-yard performance. At Baylor, there'd be a better chance of the upset, but here, not so much.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 4
5:05 PM
Idaho State @ Idaho (0-2)
Idaho's looked less outclassed than usual so far this year, so they should be fine.
The Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 4
5:30 PM
Texas Tech (2-0) @ #24 TCU (2-0)
Two disappointing teams. TCU still could go undefeated if they win this game, but their performance against Baylor has me down on them as a whole. The TCU pass defense has been mediocre, so I obviously think that is going to be a problem here. Tech still doesn't have a defense, but here I think that should be enough.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Bowling Green (1-1) @ Florida International (0-2)
BGSU dominated the Buffalo game despite the close score, so they're better than you'd think, even if this is a down year. FIU should be better than Buffalo, but I don't think it'll make much difference.
The Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (1-1) @ Kentucky (1-1)
There's always the outside chance BenJarvus Green-Ellis could break his leg. Otherwise, he should run all over the Wildcats.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 4
#7 Texas (1-1) @ Rice (0-2)
Rice hasn't looked that bad so far this season. This will change.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
6:15 PM
Portland State @ #16 California (1-1)
Yawn.
The Pick: California
Confidence: 5
6:30 PM
Fresno State (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Fresno RB Dwyane Wright has looked great this year, and the Bulldogs almost upset Oregon, a much better team than Washington. Once Fresno wins here, it will surely be shown as a BIG WIN OVER A MAJOR CONFERENCE OPPONENT!!!!!
The Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
#21 Arizona State (2-0) @ Colorado (0-2)
Maybe Colorado'll crack 200 yards? Maybe?
The Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 5
Memphis (1-1) @ East Carolina (0-2)
Memphis's offense has looked better than ECU's. Memphis's defense has looked better than ECU's. ECU's underperformed, admittedly, but with the emergence of Memphis's passing game, and Joseph Doss filling in well enough for DeAngelo Williams, the Tigers should win here.
The Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Florida Atlantic (0-2) @ Oklahoma State (2-0)
FAU's a lower-tier Sun Belt team. That's all you really need to know.
The Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 5
Grambling State @ Houston (2-0)
No real contest here. Maybe a few years ago.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Nicholls State @ Louisiana Tech (0-1)
THE BATTLE FOR TEAM THAT LOST TO NEBRASKA SUPREMACY! Who knows how good LA Tech will be this year, but it should be better than Nicholls State.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 4
Tulane (0-1) @ Mississippi State (0-2)
Tulane has looked awful in their one game this year. Mississippi State, however, has been proven to be awful. And have no offense.
The Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 3
NC State (1-1) @ Southern Miss (1-1)
All signs point to Southern Miss winning here, what with NC State losing to an above-average mid major at home last week. Part of me wants to pick NC State just because conventional wisdom is usually wrong, but the pull isn't strong enough.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
Furman @ North Carolina (0-2)
Finally, UNC plays a team where the defense can more than make up for Joe Dailey.
The Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 3
North Texas (1-1) @ Tulsa (1-1)
Tulsa is better than they showed against BYU. An upper-tier C-USA team > the Sun Belt. Especially at home.
The Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
Wofford @ South Carolina (1-1)
Hopefully here's where the Gamecock offense gets things on track, even without QB Blake Mitchell.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 5
7:07 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (1-1) @ Alabama (2-0)
The most interesting thing here is the start time.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
7:35 PM
Buffalo (1-1) @ Northern Illinois (0-2)
NIU's 0-2 is much more impressive than Buffalo's 1-1. The NIU secondary's been weak, so Buffalo QB Drew Willy may have a good day, but Garrett Wolfe should run for another 200 or so.
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#23 Clemson (1-1) @ #13 Florida State (2-0)
Clemson actually played better than BC this week, and if Clemson was 2-0, this would look a lot less like an upset. FSU has no running game, and I can't imagine them doing much against the Clemson defense. Meanwhile, FSU has a killer D, but I think Clemson has enough weapons to pull this one out.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#3 Florida (2-0) @ #15 Tennessee (2-0)
The temptation is there to say that Chris Leak will be Black Peyton Manning'd. However, I think the Florida defense may be able to disrupt some things, and we'll see if Erik Ainge pulls out his fainting goat impression.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Missouri (2-0) @ New Mexico (1-1)
Missouri's looked good against a I-AA and gave up 188 total yards to Mississippi. New Mexico lost to a I-AA and gave up 472 passing yards in their win against New Mexico State. One's a bit more impressive than the other.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 5
#18 Nebraska (2-0) @ #1 USC (1-0)
Way to beat Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Texas Southern @ New Mexico State (1-1)
After facing an actual I-A opponent, it's back to NMSU's comfort zone.
The Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Sam Houston State @ SMU (0-2)
You know what? SMU's looked so awful, I'm going to violate one of my cardinal rules.
The Pick: Sam Houston State
Confidence: 1
8:05 PM
Utah (1-1) @ Utah State (0-2)
The USU offense has looked so bad this year that I can't predict the upset.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
Colorado State (2-0) @ Nevada (0-2)
CSU's wins have been over Weber State and Colorado; I'll leave it up to you which is more impressive. Nevada fell back to earth at Arizona State after a good offensive performance against Fresno, and I think they can rebound back at home.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
9:15 PM
Army (1-1) @ Texas A&M (2-0)
I'm not sold on A&M, but Army's pretty bad.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
10:00 PM
Stephen F. Austin @ Arizona (1-1)
Arizona's back at home against a bad opponent. Duh.
The Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 5
Navy (2-0) @ Stanford (0-2)
Navy always has that one weird loss every year that you look back on confused. Here you go.
The Pick: Stanford
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
UNLV (1-1) @ Hawaii (0-1)
The supposedly improved UNLV secondary looks mediocre. This is not good news. Plus the game's at Hawaii.
The Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
BYU (1-1) @ Boston College (2-0)
Thoughts: BYU, especially QB John Beck, had a big day against Tulsa in week 2. However, BC had a better week. In Provo, maybe, but here?
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence (out of 5): 3
Cincinnati (1-1) @ #2 Ohio State (2-0)
Thoughts: Duh.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (2-0) @ Connecticut (1-0)
Thoughts: I'll be here! A really odd situation with Wake. Their senior QB broke his arm and Wake subsequently almost lost to Duke. So you'd think that was because of the passing game, right? No, it was the running game, Wake Forest's bread and butter, that let the Demon Deacons down. Wake RB Micah Andrews may rebound in this game, but I still think the UConn secondary does enough to stop Wake through the air. I still have some concerns about the Husky offense, but if Duke can put up 13, they should be fine at home.
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Duke (0-2) @ #20 Virginia Tech (2-0)
Thoughts: Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis is probably better than Joe Dailey, but the Blue Devils still have no chance.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (0-2) @ Illinois (1-1)
Thoughts: Wow, someone has to win this one. The Illini have a running game, but if QB Tim Brasic throws for only 46 against Rutgers, I can't imagine them winning, even at home. Hopefully Syracuse's defense can score some points, since I'm not sure the offense will do much.
The Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (2-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-0)
Thoughts: Michigan State is inconsistent as hell, and Pittsburgh has a good defense, but I think Drew Stanton and Javon Ringer will be too much. Tyler Palko will probably have a huge day as the Panthers keep trying to catch up.
The Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 2
12:05 PM
Iowa State (2-0) @ #11 Iowa (2-0)
Thoughts: ISU struggled to beat UNLV. Drew Tate is playing.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Arkansas (1-1) @ Vanderbilt (0-2)
Thoughts: Vandy's faced some tough defenses, but their offense still doesn't look any good. Even if they put some points on the board, I can't imagine Arkansas wouldn't put up more.
The Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Marshall (1-1) @ Kansas State (2-0)
Thoughts: Marshall hasn't looked good this year, even giving up 31 to Hofstra. Admittedly, KSU almost lost to Illinois State in week 1, but their thrashing of FAU makes me think they have things somewhere close to "together."
The Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Akron (1-1) @ Central Michigan (0-2)
Thoughts: CMU looked good losing to BC, so there's some hope here. Akron beat NC State last week, and while that doesn't mean much anymore, they should win this road game as well.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 3
Ball State (1-1) @ Purdue (2-0)
Thoughts: Purdue can run it, but the key is QB Curtis Painter vs. the Ball State secondary. Indiana third-stringer Kellen Lewis had a big game passing against Ball State. There you go.
The Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
UAB (1-1) @ #19 Georgia (2-0)
Thoughts: UAB's much better than expected, and Matt Stafford was horrible against South Carolina, so there's some intrigue here. I think the UGA running game will win it for them, however.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 4
1:30 PM
Troy (1-1) @ Georgia Tech (1-1)
Thoughts: The Troy offense still didn't look that impressive last week, despite the close score at FSU. The GT defense should also make Troy look bad, and on offense, they have Calvin Johnson.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (0-2) @ Northwestern (1-1)
Thoughts: Northwestern had the horrible loss to UNH last week, but that was mostly turnovers. EMU's looked decent, but if Northwestern doesn't keep turning it over, they should win easy here.
The Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 4
Kent State (0-2) @ Miami of Ohio (0-2)
Thoughts: Miami of Ohio's played two Big Ten teams. Kent State got shut down by Army.
The Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 4
Temple (0-2) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Thoughts: As much as I don't buy Minnesota this year, come on. It's Temple.
The Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
South Florida (2-0) @ Central Florida (1-1)
Thoughts: UCF got utterly depantsed against Florida, but USF's offense hasn't done much all year. USF's defense could have a good day, but I can't see this anemic Bulls offense beating a rival on the road.
The Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#5 LSU (2-0) @ #4 Auburn (2-0)
Thoughts: Ohhhh boy. Kenny Irons had a bad day against Mississippi State, while the LSU defense absolutely destroyed a decent Arizona team. If Irons had had a big day, I'd have no qualms about picking Auburn at home. But as it is, my gut says I should pick...
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 1
#22 Boise State (2-0) @ Wyoming (1-1)
Thoughts: Wyoming has some potential, but after BSU's utter destruction of Oregon State, I doubt the Cowboys will be able to show any.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#14 Miami (1-1) @ #12 Louisville (2-0)
Thoughts: Brian Brohm vs. the Miami secondary. Oooooh. Louisville's been good against the run, and Kyle Wright only looked mediocre against Florida A&M, so I think that'll be the difference. I could easily see the Miami pass D taking over, but I'm picking the "upset" for the time being.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
#8 Michigan (2-0) @ #6 Notre Dame (2-0)
Thoughts: GT looks to be a good defensive team, and Michigan looks to be better. I think Michigan can disrupt Brady Quinn, and then take over with the running game. Rushing and defense, rushing and defense.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 2
Ohio (2-0) @ Rutgers (2-0)
Thoughts: The Rutgers running game is insane right now, and I don't think Ohio is going to be the team to stop it.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
#9 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #17 Oregon (2-0)
Thoughts: Oklahoma's defense hasn't looked good at all, and while Oregon's win over Stanford looks a lot less impressive now, they've still been a good team. And they're at home. Basically, I have no reason for picking Oklahoma except that when conventional wisdom says the upset will happen, it usually won't. But that's enough for me.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 1
Youngstown State @ #25 Penn State (1-1)
Thoughts: PENGUINS!
The Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
San Diego State (0-1) @ Wisconsin (2-0)
Thoughts: Wisconsin's defense has looked suspect, but the Badgers offense, especially the running game, have looked good. If SDSU couldn't beat UTEP with The Jordan Palmer Interception Experience in full effect, they're not doing it here.
The Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
Western Michigan (1-1) @ Virginia (1-1)
Virginia only gained 241 against Wyoming, and could've lost if not for a missed XP in OT. WMU was also outgained in their win against Toledo, but a lucky win against a top MAC team is better than a lucky win against Wyoming, especially when you're an ACC team.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Southern Illinois @ Indiana (2-0)
I'm as shocked as you are that Indiana will probably start the year 3-0.
The Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 3
5:00 PM
Baylor (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
Baylor should be much improved, but Wazzou is coming off of a 651-yard performance. At Baylor, there'd be a better chance of the upset, but here, not so much.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 4
5:05 PM
Idaho State @ Idaho (0-2)
Idaho's looked less outclassed than usual so far this year, so they should be fine.
The Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 4
5:30 PM
Texas Tech (2-0) @ #24 TCU (2-0)
Two disappointing teams. TCU still could go undefeated if they win this game, but their performance against Baylor has me down on them as a whole. The TCU pass defense has been mediocre, so I obviously think that is going to be a problem here. Tech still doesn't have a defense, but here I think that should be enough.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Bowling Green (1-1) @ Florida International (0-2)
BGSU dominated the Buffalo game despite the close score, so they're better than you'd think, even if this is a down year. FIU should be better than Buffalo, but I don't think it'll make much difference.
The Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (1-1) @ Kentucky (1-1)
There's always the outside chance BenJarvus Green-Ellis could break his leg. Otherwise, he should run all over the Wildcats.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 4
#7 Texas (1-1) @ Rice (0-2)
Rice hasn't looked that bad so far this season. This will change.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
6:15 PM
Portland State @ #16 California (1-1)
Yawn.
The Pick: California
Confidence: 5
6:30 PM
Fresno State (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Fresno RB Dwyane Wright has looked great this year, and the Bulldogs almost upset Oregon, a much better team than Washington. Once Fresno wins here, it will surely be shown as a BIG WIN OVER A MAJOR CONFERENCE OPPONENT!!!!!
The Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
#21 Arizona State (2-0) @ Colorado (0-2)
Maybe Colorado'll crack 200 yards? Maybe?
The Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 5
Memphis (1-1) @ East Carolina (0-2)
Memphis's offense has looked better than ECU's. Memphis's defense has looked better than ECU's. ECU's underperformed, admittedly, but with the emergence of Memphis's passing game, and Joseph Doss filling in well enough for DeAngelo Williams, the Tigers should win here.
The Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Florida Atlantic (0-2) @ Oklahoma State (2-0)
FAU's a lower-tier Sun Belt team. That's all you really need to know.
The Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 5
Grambling State @ Houston (2-0)
No real contest here. Maybe a few years ago.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Nicholls State @ Louisiana Tech (0-1)
THE BATTLE FOR TEAM THAT LOST TO NEBRASKA SUPREMACY! Who knows how good LA Tech will be this year, but it should be better than Nicholls State.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 4
Tulane (0-1) @ Mississippi State (0-2)
Tulane has looked awful in their one game this year. Mississippi State, however, has been proven to be awful. And have no offense.
The Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 3
NC State (1-1) @ Southern Miss (1-1)
All signs point to Southern Miss winning here, what with NC State losing to an above-average mid major at home last week. Part of me wants to pick NC State just because conventional wisdom is usually wrong, but the pull isn't strong enough.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
Furman @ North Carolina (0-2)
Finally, UNC plays a team where the defense can more than make up for Joe Dailey.
The Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 3
North Texas (1-1) @ Tulsa (1-1)
Tulsa is better than they showed against BYU. An upper-tier C-USA team > the Sun Belt. Especially at home.
The Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
Wofford @ South Carolina (1-1)
Hopefully here's where the Gamecock offense gets things on track, even without QB Blake Mitchell.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 5
7:07 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (1-1) @ Alabama (2-0)
The most interesting thing here is the start time.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
7:35 PM
Buffalo (1-1) @ Northern Illinois (0-2)
NIU's 0-2 is much more impressive than Buffalo's 1-1. The NIU secondary's been weak, so Buffalo QB Drew Willy may have a good day, but Garrett Wolfe should run for another 200 or so.
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#23 Clemson (1-1) @ #13 Florida State (2-0)
Clemson actually played better than BC this week, and if Clemson was 2-0, this would look a lot less like an upset. FSU has no running game, and I can't imagine them doing much against the Clemson defense. Meanwhile, FSU has a killer D, but I think Clemson has enough weapons to pull this one out.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#3 Florida (2-0) @ #15 Tennessee (2-0)
The temptation is there to say that Chris Leak will be Black Peyton Manning'd. However, I think the Florida defense may be able to disrupt some things, and we'll see if Erik Ainge pulls out his fainting goat impression.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Missouri (2-0) @ New Mexico (1-1)
Missouri's looked good against a I-AA and gave up 188 total yards to Mississippi. New Mexico lost to a I-AA and gave up 472 passing yards in their win against New Mexico State. One's a bit more impressive than the other.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 5
#18 Nebraska (2-0) @ #1 USC (1-0)
Way to beat Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Texas Southern @ New Mexico State (1-1)
After facing an actual I-A opponent, it's back to NMSU's comfort zone.
The Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Sam Houston State @ SMU (0-2)
You know what? SMU's looked so awful, I'm going to violate one of my cardinal rules.
The Pick: Sam Houston State
Confidence: 1
8:05 PM
Utah (1-1) @ Utah State (0-2)
The USU offense has looked so bad this year that I can't predict the upset.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
Colorado State (2-0) @ Nevada (0-2)
CSU's wins have been over Weber State and Colorado; I'll leave it up to you which is more impressive. Nevada fell back to earth at Arizona State after a good offensive performance against Fresno, and I think they can rebound back at home.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
9:15 PM
Army (1-1) @ Texas A&M (2-0)
I'm not sold on A&M, but Army's pretty bad.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
10:00 PM
Stephen F. Austin @ Arizona (1-1)
Arizona's back at home against a bad opponent. Duh.
The Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 5
Navy (2-0) @ Stanford (0-2)
Navy always has that one weird loss every year that you look back on confused. Here you go.
The Pick: Stanford
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
UNLV (1-1) @ Hawaii (0-1)
The supposedly improved UNLV secondary looks mediocre. This is not good news. Plus the game's at Hawaii.
The Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Week 3 Rundown: Thurs. and Fri.
Quick update so I get this in before the games actually start.
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
Tennessee State @ Middle Tennessee State (1-1)
Thoughts: MTSU rebounded from the horrible offensive showing against FIU (despite a win), so I don't think the upset will happen.
The Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence (out of 5): 5
7:30 PM
Maryland (2-0) @ #10 West Virginia (2-0)
Thoughts: Maryland was outgained by MTSU, and almost was by William & Mary. I would imagine they'll be outgained here. And lose. Badly. Maryland isn't very good.
The Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 5
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Kansas (2-0) @ Toledo (0-2)
Thoughts: Ooh, intriguing. Kansas is 2-0, but over Northwestern State and LA-Monroe. Toledo lost an OT shootout against Iowa State, and had a loss to WMU where they outgained the Broncos. WMU ran all over the Toledo defense, and KU running back Jon Cornish could do the same, but if Louisiana-Monroe can keep it close at Kansas, I think Toledo can beat them at home.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
Tennessee State @ Middle Tennessee State (1-1)
Thoughts: MTSU rebounded from the horrible offensive showing against FIU (despite a win), so I don't think the upset will happen.
The Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence (out of 5): 5
7:30 PM
Maryland (2-0) @ #10 West Virginia (2-0)
Thoughts: Maryland was outgained by MTSU, and almost was by William & Mary. I would imagine they'll be outgained here. And lose. Badly. Maryland isn't very good.
The Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 5
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Kansas (2-0) @ Toledo (0-2)
Thoughts: Ooh, intriguing. Kansas is 2-0, but over Northwestern State and LA-Monroe. Toledo lost an OT shootout against Iowa State, and had a loss to WMU where they outgained the Broncos. WMU ran all over the Toledo defense, and KU running back Jon Cornish could do the same, but if Louisiana-Monroe can keep it close at Kansas, I think Toledo can beat them at home.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
The Feely Top 25: After Week 2
Hey! I completely forgot about this. Quickly, now:
#1 USC (#1 LW, Week 2: BYE) - Still think they're the best team. Obviously.
#2 Ohio State (#2, W @ Texas 24-7) - Almost made them #1, but I still have lingering doubts about the defense. A lot less now, but still some.
#3 Florida (#6, W vs. Central Florida 42-0) - Dominated what should be a decent UCF team; I still think they have the most talent, but insert Chris Leak/A-Rod comparison here.
#4 Auburn (#7, W @ Mississippi State 34-0) - The Wazzou game impressed me more than the Mississippi State game, but Cox/Irons/Defense still makes this a sexy pick.
#5 LSU (#8, W vs. Arizona 45-3) - Great great great win, but I still have my doubts about QB JaMarcus Russell.
#6 Notre Dame (#5, W vs. Penn State 41-17) - Meh. I don't think they're beating USC, and the schedule in general worries me. Neither win impresses me as much as the SEC teams have, so UND gets leapfrogged.
#7 Texas (#3, L vs. Ohio State 7-24) - They still have elite talent, and I think they'll be fine in the long-run of the year. Still, they're 1-1 now, so I had to drop them a bit.
#8 Michigan (#9, W vs. Central Michigan 41-17) - Rushing and defense, rushing and defense. And occasionally, Chad Henne.
#9 Oklahoma (#4, W vs. Washington 37-20) - Well, I still think Texas is the better team, so they had to be below #7. OU should be winning on rushing and defense, but they're just winning on Adrian Peterson, and I'm worried about that holding up.
#10 West Virginia (#11, W vs. Eastern Washington 52-3) - Steve Slaton frightens me. I'm still skeptical about them running the table, but the teams below them worry me more.
#11 Iowa (#12, W @ Syracuse 20-13 OT) - Drew Tate better be healthy. The Syracuse game even being close was all the fault of backup QB Jason Manson.
#12 Louisville (#13, W @ Temple 62-0) - Almost bumped them down to 13, but Louisville actually has a running game.
#13 Florida State (#10, W vs. Troy 17-24) - Only 83 rushing yards against TROY?
#14 Miami (#14, W vs. Florida A&M 51-10) - It's a I-AA, and FSU still beat them, so they stay here.
#15 Tennessee (#15, W vs. Air Force 31-30) - I personally feel this was an abberation, and I can't knock them lower than...
#16 Cal (#16, W vs. Minnesota 42-17) - ...the team they crushed in Week 1.
#17 Oregon (#22, W @ Fresno State 31-24) - Impressed once again, and schedule/injury questions about the others leapfrog them here.
#18 Nebraska (#21, W vs. Nicholls State 56-7) - Looked great and I think they're improved, but they've played Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State.
#19 Georgia (#18, W @ South Carolina 18-0) - The defense is impressive, but QB Joe Tereshinski's injury and Matt Stafford's subsequent bad performance makes me worried for the near future.
#20 Virginia Tech (#19, W @ North Carolina 35-10) - They've played Northeastern and UNC. One has a I-AA quarterback, and the other doesn't have Joe Dailey.
#21 Arizona State (#23, W vs. Nevada 52-21) - Great rebound win, but Oregon's continued performance leaves them as the #4 Pac-10 team.
#22 Boise State (NR, W vs. Oregon State 42-14) - Just absolutely depantsed Oregon State. The best mid-major in the land!
#23 Clemson (#17, L @ Boston College 34-33 2OT) - Clemson lost despite being the better team, and they still have more than enough talent.
#24 TCU (#25, W vs. UC Davis 46-13) - Still not overly impressive, but still could go undefeated.
#25 Penn State (#20, L @ Notre Dame 17-41) - They should be fine in the long-term, and it was them or Texas Tech, and hey, Penn State has a defense.
OUT: Texas Tech (#24, W @ UTEP 38-35 OT)
#1 USC (#1 LW, Week 2: BYE) - Still think they're the best team. Obviously.
#2 Ohio State (#2, W @ Texas 24-7) - Almost made them #1, but I still have lingering doubts about the defense. A lot less now, but still some.
#3 Florida (#6, W vs. Central Florida 42-0) - Dominated what should be a decent UCF team; I still think they have the most talent, but insert Chris Leak/A-Rod comparison here.
#4 Auburn (#7, W @ Mississippi State 34-0) - The Wazzou game impressed me more than the Mississippi State game, but Cox/Irons/Defense still makes this a sexy pick.
#5 LSU (#8, W vs. Arizona 45-3) - Great great great win, but I still have my doubts about QB JaMarcus Russell.
#6 Notre Dame (#5, W vs. Penn State 41-17) - Meh. I don't think they're beating USC, and the schedule in general worries me. Neither win impresses me as much as the SEC teams have, so UND gets leapfrogged.
#7 Texas (#3, L vs. Ohio State 7-24) - They still have elite talent, and I think they'll be fine in the long-run of the year. Still, they're 1-1 now, so I had to drop them a bit.
#8 Michigan (#9, W vs. Central Michigan 41-17) - Rushing and defense, rushing and defense. And occasionally, Chad Henne.
#9 Oklahoma (#4, W vs. Washington 37-20) - Well, I still think Texas is the better team, so they had to be below #7. OU should be winning on rushing and defense, but they're just winning on Adrian Peterson, and I'm worried about that holding up.
#10 West Virginia (#11, W vs. Eastern Washington 52-3) - Steve Slaton frightens me. I'm still skeptical about them running the table, but the teams below them worry me more.
#11 Iowa (#12, W @ Syracuse 20-13 OT) - Drew Tate better be healthy. The Syracuse game even being close was all the fault of backup QB Jason Manson.
#12 Louisville (#13, W @ Temple 62-0) - Almost bumped them down to 13, but Louisville actually has a running game.
#13 Florida State (#10, W vs. Troy 17-24) - Only 83 rushing yards against TROY?
#14 Miami (#14, W vs. Florida A&M 51-10) - It's a I-AA, and FSU still beat them, so they stay here.
#15 Tennessee (#15, W vs. Air Force 31-30) - I personally feel this was an abberation, and I can't knock them lower than...
#16 Cal (#16, W vs. Minnesota 42-17) - ...the team they crushed in Week 1.
#17 Oregon (#22, W @ Fresno State 31-24) - Impressed once again, and schedule/injury questions about the others leapfrog them here.
#18 Nebraska (#21, W vs. Nicholls State 56-7) - Looked great and I think they're improved, but they've played Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State.
#19 Georgia (#18, W @ South Carolina 18-0) - The defense is impressive, but QB Joe Tereshinski's injury and Matt Stafford's subsequent bad performance makes me worried for the near future.
#20 Virginia Tech (#19, W @ North Carolina 35-10) - They've played Northeastern and UNC. One has a I-AA quarterback, and the other doesn't have Joe Dailey.
#21 Arizona State (#23, W vs. Nevada 52-21) - Great rebound win, but Oregon's continued performance leaves them as the #4 Pac-10 team.
#22 Boise State (NR, W vs. Oregon State 42-14) - Just absolutely depantsed Oregon State. The best mid-major in the land!
#23 Clemson (#17, L @ Boston College 34-33 2OT) - Clemson lost despite being the better team, and they still have more than enough talent.
#24 TCU (#25, W vs. UC Davis 46-13) - Still not overly impressive, but still could go undefeated.
#25 Penn State (#20, L @ Notre Dame 17-41) - They should be fine in the long-term, and it was them or Texas Tech, and hey, Penn State has a defense.
OUT: Texas Tech (#24, W @ UTEP 38-35 OT)
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
An administrative note.
The prospect of Memphis-Chattanooga has broken me. I'm stopping the week 2 recap here, mostly since it's probably too late to be of any good, and starting the week 3 preview later tonight or sometime tomorrow. I'm going to try and retool the format so that I can try and be informative while still talking about what I want to talk about, instead of trying to think of something to say about a Sun Belt QB's performance against a I-AA. Thoughts and feedback appreciated.
Week 2 Recap, Pt. III (Georgia Tech-Maryland)
Samford @ Georgia Tech
My Prediction: Georgia Tech
Final Score: Georgia Tech 38, Samford 6
Thoughts: The GT defense looked good, only allowing 178 yards and getting 2 picks. Not much to say individually on the offensive side of the ball, but Calvin Johnson had 2 TDs on 4 catches for 26.
Tulane @ Houston
My Prediction: Houston
Final Score: Houston 45, Tulane 7
Thoughts: Houston pretty much dominated here, outgaining Tulane 621-224. Surprisingly, the star of the game was a Houston running back, in this case Anthony Alridge, who ran for 155 and 2 scores. Tulane QB Lester Ricard didn't look good (14/25, 156, 1/1 TD/INT), but really, no one on the Green Wave did.
Idaho @ Washington State
My Prediction: Washington State
Final Score: Washington State 56, Idaho 10
Thoughts: Idaho didn't have any standout individual performances, but did gain 316 yards. Unfortunately, Wazzou had 651. Cougars QB Alex Brink was efficient, with 231 yards and 3 TD on 12/15 passing (along with a rushing TD.) The WSU running game had a big day as well, led by Dwight Tardy's 92 yards and a TD, along with Christopher Ivory's 80 yard touchdown run late.
Illinois @ Rutgers
My Prediction: Rutgers
Final Score: Rutgers 33, Illinois 0
Thoughts: Hoo boy. A big day by Rutgers RB Ray Rice (108, TD) was to be expected, but the Illini offense was absolutely impotent, gaining only 158. Illinois QB Tim Brasic had a wretched day, going 5/11 for only 46 yards and 2 INT, one of which was returned for a TD. Rutgers should take all the wins it can get, but I think this speaks more for how horrible Illinois is.
UNLV @ Iowa State
My Prediction: Iowa State
Final Score: Iowa State 16, UNLV 10
Thoughts: So...there was some controversy here at the end, apparently. But anyway, this was a mostly even game yardage-wise (341-312 ISU), with no standout performances outside of Cyclone RB Stevie Hicks's 109 and a TD. A good win for ISU to keep momentum building, and UNLV being able to hang shows they should be back to respectability.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Kansas
My Prediction: Kansas
Final Score: Kansas 21, Louisiana-Monroe 19
Thoughts: ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster is a one-man team, accounting for 407 total yards and all 3 Warhawk TDs. By the way, that's 407 of ULM's 466 total yards. Actually, Lancaster outgained the entire Kansas team, 407-377. Jayhawks RB Jon Cornish had 103 rushing, but the lone rushing score was by QB Kerry Meier, who also threw for 185 and 2 TDs, but had 2 picks.
Texas State @ Kentucky
My Prediction: Kentucky
Final Score: Kentucky 41, Texas State 7
Thoughts: Although RB Rafael Little had 91 yards and a TD, the Wildcat attack again took place mostly through the air, as QB Andre' Woodson had 197 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT on 13/20 passing. Non-RBs only accounted for 16 of Texas State's rushing yards, so maybe they all broke their legs too.
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Texas A&M
My Prediction: Texas A&M
Final Score: Texas A&M 51, Louisiana-Lafayette 7
Thoughts: TAMU dominated yardage-wise, 505-194. Aggie RB Jovorskie Lane had 4 TDs on only 52 rushing. ULL runs an option attack, but it's still jarring to see "17" under total passing yards.
Hofstra @ Marshall
My Prediction: Marshall
Final Score: Marshall 54, Hofstra 31
Thoughts: Similarly, Hofstra somehow only ran for 18 yards. Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw's the star here, with 152 yards and 4 TD.
Middle Tennessee State @ Maryland
My Prediction: Maryland
Final Score: Maryland 24, Middle Tennessee State 10
Thoughts: The Terps were outgained 361-294, but benefitted from three MTSU turnovers. Blue Raiders QB Clint Marks rebounded to throw for 216 yards (and a pick), and RB Eugene Gross had 74 and a score. UMD QB Sam Hollenbach was mediocre, throwing for 139 on 11/16 passing. He was bailed out by Lance Ball's 2 rushing touchdowns.
My Prediction: Georgia Tech
Final Score: Georgia Tech 38, Samford 6
Thoughts: The GT defense looked good, only allowing 178 yards and getting 2 picks. Not much to say individually on the offensive side of the ball, but Calvin Johnson had 2 TDs on 4 catches for 26.
Tulane @ Houston
My Prediction: Houston
Final Score: Houston 45, Tulane 7
Thoughts: Houston pretty much dominated here, outgaining Tulane 621-224. Surprisingly, the star of the game was a Houston running back, in this case Anthony Alridge, who ran for 155 and 2 scores. Tulane QB Lester Ricard didn't look good (14/25, 156, 1/1 TD/INT), but really, no one on the Green Wave did.
Idaho @ Washington State
My Prediction: Washington State
Final Score: Washington State 56, Idaho 10
Thoughts: Idaho didn't have any standout individual performances, but did gain 316 yards. Unfortunately, Wazzou had 651. Cougars QB Alex Brink was efficient, with 231 yards and 3 TD on 12/15 passing (along with a rushing TD.) The WSU running game had a big day as well, led by Dwight Tardy's 92 yards and a TD, along with Christopher Ivory's 80 yard touchdown run late.
Illinois @ Rutgers
My Prediction: Rutgers
Final Score: Rutgers 33, Illinois 0
Thoughts: Hoo boy. A big day by Rutgers RB Ray Rice (108, TD) was to be expected, but the Illini offense was absolutely impotent, gaining only 158. Illinois QB Tim Brasic had a wretched day, going 5/11 for only 46 yards and 2 INT, one of which was returned for a TD. Rutgers should take all the wins it can get, but I think this speaks more for how horrible Illinois is.
UNLV @ Iowa State
My Prediction: Iowa State
Final Score: Iowa State 16, UNLV 10
Thoughts: So...there was some controversy here at the end, apparently. But anyway, this was a mostly even game yardage-wise (341-312 ISU), with no standout performances outside of Cyclone RB Stevie Hicks's 109 and a TD. A good win for ISU to keep momentum building, and UNLV being able to hang shows they should be back to respectability.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Kansas
My Prediction: Kansas
Final Score: Kansas 21, Louisiana-Monroe 19
Thoughts: ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster is a one-man team, accounting for 407 total yards and all 3 Warhawk TDs. By the way, that's 407 of ULM's 466 total yards. Actually, Lancaster outgained the entire Kansas team, 407-377. Jayhawks RB Jon Cornish had 103 rushing, but the lone rushing score was by QB Kerry Meier, who also threw for 185 and 2 TDs, but had 2 picks.
Texas State @ Kentucky
My Prediction: Kentucky
Final Score: Kentucky 41, Texas State 7
Thoughts: Although RB Rafael Little had 91 yards and a TD, the Wildcat attack again took place mostly through the air, as QB Andre' Woodson had 197 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT on 13/20 passing. Non-RBs only accounted for 16 of Texas State's rushing yards, so maybe they all broke their legs too.
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Texas A&M
My Prediction: Texas A&M
Final Score: Texas A&M 51, Louisiana-Lafayette 7
Thoughts: TAMU dominated yardage-wise, 505-194. Aggie RB Jovorskie Lane had 4 TDs on only 52 rushing. ULL runs an option attack, but it's still jarring to see "17" under total passing yards.
Hofstra @ Marshall
My Prediction: Marshall
Final Score: Marshall 54, Hofstra 31
Thoughts: Similarly, Hofstra somehow only ran for 18 yards. Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw's the star here, with 152 yards and 4 TD.
Middle Tennessee State @ Maryland
My Prediction: Maryland
Final Score: Maryland 24, Middle Tennessee State 10
Thoughts: The Terps were outgained 361-294, but benefitted from three MTSU turnovers. Blue Raiders QB Clint Marks rebounded to throw for 216 yards (and a pick), and RB Eugene Gross had 74 and a score. UMD QB Sam Hollenbach was mediocre, throwing for 139 on 11/16 passing. He was bailed out by Lance Ball's 2 rushing touchdowns.
Monday, September 11, 2006
Week 2 Recap, Pt. II: (Akron-Florida International)
Akron @ NC State
My Prediction: Akron
Final Score: Akron 20, NC State 17
Thoughts: Well, first, the good news for NC State. QB Marcus Stone looked decent, going 16/31 for 209 and a 2/1 INT. And that's about it. Akron QB Luke Getsy passed for 243 yards, but only completed 12 of 31 attempts. The star of the game: Akron RB Dennis Kennedy, with 117 yards and all 3 Zip TDs. NCSU's obviously falling to earth and fast, but with NIU and Toledo faltering, Akron actually might repeat in the MAC.
Vanderbilt @ Alabama
My Prediction: Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 13, Vanderbilt 10
Thoughts: Vandy's defense mostly got shut down, with only 93 rushing yards and 155 passing, with 4 turnovers. 3 of those were INTs by QB Chris Nickson, but he did have 140 on 15/23. So they have a better passing game than Mississippi State. Bama RB Kenneth Darby only had 65, but QB John Parker Wilson was a wholly decent 18/29 for 207 and 1/1 TD/INT.
Utah State @ Arkansas
My Prediction: Arkansas
Final Score: Arkansas 20, Utah State 0
Thoughts: Razorback QB Mitch Mustain had a better day than Matt Stafford, going 9/17 for 119 and a TD. But the real bread and butter of Arkansas, the running game, was the news here, as star RB Darren McFadden ran for 184 and 2 TD. A good rebound win for Arkansas, as they also mostly held the USU offense in check, outside of Aggie RB Marcus Cross's 103 yards.
Oklahoma State @ Arkansas State
My Prediction: Oklahoma State
Final Score: Oklahoma State 35, Arkansas State 7
Thoughts: The ASU offense couldn't manage much here, with only 240 total yards and 78 passing. At the very least, the Indian defense picked off OSU QB Bobby Reid (11/18, 167, 2 TD) 3 times, one of which was returned for a TD by star safety Khayyam Burns. A solid win for an OK State team that may yet be bowl eligible, but ASU has some things to take out of it.
Kent State @ Army
My Prediction: Army
Final Score: Army 17, Kent State 14
Thoughts: Either a defensive struggle or, more likely, an exercise in offensive futility, as neither team broke 300 yards. Star of the show: Army RB Tony Moore had 35 yards and both Black Knight TDs. Neither of these teams seem to have much hope.
Indiana @ Ball State
My Prediction: Indiana
Final Score: Indiana 24, Ball State 23
Thoughts: Battle of the QBs here. BSU QB Joey Lynch (15/24, 246, 3/1 TD/INT) had a great night, but the real star was third-string Hoosier quarterback Kellen Lewis (15/28 for 228 and a TD passing, with 88 and a score rushing.) Game was mostly even otherwise, except for Indiana shutting down the Cardinal running game to the tune of 63 yards.
Northwestern State @ Baylor
My Prediction: Baylor
Final Score: Baylor 47, Northwestern State 10
Thoughts: The positives: QB Shawn Bell starred again, with 25/41 passing for 288 yards, 4 TD and an INT. The negatives: The Bears gave up 353 yards, and only had 36 rushing yards. *36*.
Oregon State @ Boise State
My Prediction: Boise State
Final Score: Boise State 42, Oregon State 14
Thoughts: OSU scored that 14 in the first few minutes, and it looked like they would roll. And then Boise State brought out the whoopin' stick. QB Jared Zabransky only had 105 yards and a TD, but RB Ian Johnson had, and this line still makes me laugh, 240 yards and 5 TD. PLAYER OF THE WEEK, everyone. On the Beaver front, QB Matt Moore actually has a pretty decent line (12/17, 115 yards, TD, INT), but backup Sean Canfield (7/11, 63) looked good in relief. OSU RB Yvenson Bernard had 89 yards, but most of those came early.
Buffalo @ Bowling Green
My Prediction: Bowling Green
Final Score: Bowling Green 48, Buffalo 40 (3 OT)
Thoughts: Firstly, I enjoy that the game went to OT #3 only because both teams blew the XP attempts. The initial thought is to say that it's going to be a long season for BGSU, but they did outgain the Bulls 570-243. Buffalo scored TDs off of a punt block and a kickoff return, which explains that one. In his return, BGSU QB Anthony Turner looked great (16/23, 204, 3/1 TD/INT, along with 127 yards and a TD rushing), and backup Freddie Barnes (only 2/3 passing, but 99 yards and a TD on the ground) was effective as well. Not much to say on the Buffalo end; QB Drew Willy probably had the best line on offense, going 21/32 passing for 138, and scoring a rushing TD.
Tulsa @ BYU
My Prediction: BYU
Final Score: BYU 49, Tulsa 24
Thoughts: The Tulsa running game didn't do much except 2 short-yardage TDs, gaining only 82 yards total. BYU won with a balanced attack; QB John Beck had a nice day (16/21, 240, 3 TD), and four different players had rushing TD. Curtis Brown led the BYU running game with 82 yards, but his lone score came on a reception. Great rebound win for BYU after the Arizona loss, and the C-USA remains wide open.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
My Prediction: Pittsburgh
Final Score: Pittsburgh 35, Cincinnati 13
Thoughts: And Pitt lost 3 fumbles, so it could've been worse. Pitt QB Tyler Palko had 267 yards and 3 TD, most of which was to WR Derek Kinder (3 catches, 172 yards, 2 TD.) After splitting time last week, Cincy QB Dustin Grutza saw most of the time over Nick Davila, but only had 189 yards and 21/35 passing, with a 1/2 TD/INT. A pretty impressive win for Pitt, and Cincinnati continues to bore me.
Colorado @ Colorado State
My Prediction: Colorado
Final Score: Colorado State 14, Colorado 10
Thoughts: Hm. Positives for Colorado...positives for Colorado... They had 2 more rushing yards than against Montana State? Colorado State only had 60 rushing yards, but Rams QB Caleb Hanie went 20/23 passing for 233 and a score. It's still unclear where CSU stands, mostly because Colorado is, very obviously, awful.
Duke @ Wake Forest
My Prediction: Wake Forest
Final Score: Wake Forest 14, Duke 13
Thoughts: And they had to block a Duke FG to clinch it, too. I figured to see that the loss of Wake QB Ben Mauk had led to disaster in the passing game, but backup Riley Skinner had an impressive night (22/29, 235, TD.) Instead, star RB Micah Andrews had a letdown of a game, with only 41 yards and a TD. Duke actually outgained Wake 4o8-312, mostly on the arm of QB Thaddeus Lewis, who had 305 yards and a TD on 21/32 passing. Duke is still probably going winless, but I now have no idea what to make of Wake now.
East Carolina @ UAB
My Prediction: East Carolina
Final Score: UAB 17, East Carolina 12
Thoughts: And with that, UAB takes ECU's place as C-USA sleeper. ECU won the yardage battle 376-323, but both teams had 3 turnovers, so there is no other flukiness afoot. Both stars were in the passing game: ECU QB James Pinkney (20/38, 280, 1/1 TD/INT) and UAB's Chris Williams (12/16, 144, 2 TD.)
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State
My Prediction: Michigan State
Final Score: Michigan State 52, Eastern Michigan 20
Thoughts: Drew Stanton had the big game here, with 24/32 passing, 254 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT through the air, and 2 rushing scores. WR Matt Trannon also had 14 (!) receptions, for 151 and 2 TD. Oh, and RB Javon Ringer had 130 rushing. Pretty one-sided, as games where one team doubles the other in yardage (608-304) tend to be.
Florida Atlantic @ Kansas State
My Prediction: Kansas State
Final Score: Kansas State 45, Florida Atlantic 0
Thoughts: KSU only had 351 overall yards, but any shutout this big is still somewhat impressive. At least coming off of the Illinois State disaster. QB Dylan Meier had 120 and 2 TD passing, RB Thomas Clayton had 89 and a score on the ground.
Florida International @ South Florida
My Prediction: South Florida
Final Score: South Florida 21, Florida International 20
Thoughts: Ehhhhh. FIU was actually up 20-7 at the half, and this would've gone to OT if not for a missed XP in the first. FIU WR Chandler Williams was probably the most impressive player on either side, with 129 yards receiving and a punt return TD. USF QB Matt Grothe didn't look good passing (15/28, 174, 1/2 TD/INT), but ran for 82.
My Prediction: Akron
Final Score: Akron 20, NC State 17
Thoughts: Well, first, the good news for NC State. QB Marcus Stone looked decent, going 16/31 for 209 and a 2/1 INT. And that's about it. Akron QB Luke Getsy passed for 243 yards, but only completed 12 of 31 attempts. The star of the game: Akron RB Dennis Kennedy, with 117 yards and all 3 Zip TDs. NCSU's obviously falling to earth and fast, but with NIU and Toledo faltering, Akron actually might repeat in the MAC.
Vanderbilt @ Alabama
My Prediction: Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 13, Vanderbilt 10
Thoughts: Vandy's defense mostly got shut down, with only 93 rushing yards and 155 passing, with 4 turnovers. 3 of those were INTs by QB Chris Nickson, but he did have 140 on 15/23. So they have a better passing game than Mississippi State. Bama RB Kenneth Darby only had 65, but QB John Parker Wilson was a wholly decent 18/29 for 207 and 1/1 TD/INT.
Utah State @ Arkansas
My Prediction: Arkansas
Final Score: Arkansas 20, Utah State 0
Thoughts: Razorback QB Mitch Mustain had a better day than Matt Stafford, going 9/17 for 119 and a TD. But the real bread and butter of Arkansas, the running game, was the news here, as star RB Darren McFadden ran for 184 and 2 TD. A good rebound win for Arkansas, as they also mostly held the USU offense in check, outside of Aggie RB Marcus Cross's 103 yards.
Oklahoma State @ Arkansas State
My Prediction: Oklahoma State
Final Score: Oklahoma State 35, Arkansas State 7
Thoughts: The ASU offense couldn't manage much here, with only 240 total yards and 78 passing. At the very least, the Indian defense picked off OSU QB Bobby Reid (11/18, 167, 2 TD) 3 times, one of which was returned for a TD by star safety Khayyam Burns. A solid win for an OK State team that may yet be bowl eligible, but ASU has some things to take out of it.
Kent State @ Army
My Prediction: Army
Final Score: Army 17, Kent State 14
Thoughts: Either a defensive struggle or, more likely, an exercise in offensive futility, as neither team broke 300 yards. Star of the show: Army RB Tony Moore had 35 yards and both Black Knight TDs. Neither of these teams seem to have much hope.
Indiana @ Ball State
My Prediction: Indiana
Final Score: Indiana 24, Ball State 23
Thoughts: Battle of the QBs here. BSU QB Joey Lynch (15/24, 246, 3/1 TD/INT) had a great night, but the real star was third-string Hoosier quarterback Kellen Lewis (15/28 for 228 and a TD passing, with 88 and a score rushing.) Game was mostly even otherwise, except for Indiana shutting down the Cardinal running game to the tune of 63 yards.
Northwestern State @ Baylor
My Prediction: Baylor
Final Score: Baylor 47, Northwestern State 10
Thoughts: The positives: QB Shawn Bell starred again, with 25/41 passing for 288 yards, 4 TD and an INT. The negatives: The Bears gave up 353 yards, and only had 36 rushing yards. *36*.
Oregon State @ Boise State
My Prediction: Boise State
Final Score: Boise State 42, Oregon State 14
Thoughts: OSU scored that 14 in the first few minutes, and it looked like they would roll. And then Boise State brought out the whoopin' stick. QB Jared Zabransky only had 105 yards and a TD, but RB Ian Johnson had, and this line still makes me laugh, 240 yards and 5 TD. PLAYER OF THE WEEK, everyone. On the Beaver front, QB Matt Moore actually has a pretty decent line (12/17, 115 yards, TD, INT), but backup Sean Canfield (7/11, 63) looked good in relief. OSU RB Yvenson Bernard had 89 yards, but most of those came early.
Buffalo @ Bowling Green
My Prediction: Bowling Green
Final Score: Bowling Green 48, Buffalo 40 (3 OT)
Thoughts: Firstly, I enjoy that the game went to OT #3 only because both teams blew the XP attempts. The initial thought is to say that it's going to be a long season for BGSU, but they did outgain the Bulls 570-243. Buffalo scored TDs off of a punt block and a kickoff return, which explains that one. In his return, BGSU QB Anthony Turner looked great (16/23, 204, 3/1 TD/INT, along with 127 yards and a TD rushing), and backup Freddie Barnes (only 2/3 passing, but 99 yards and a TD on the ground) was effective as well. Not much to say on the Buffalo end; QB Drew Willy probably had the best line on offense, going 21/32 passing for 138, and scoring a rushing TD.
Tulsa @ BYU
My Prediction: BYU
Final Score: BYU 49, Tulsa 24
Thoughts: The Tulsa running game didn't do much except 2 short-yardage TDs, gaining only 82 yards total. BYU won with a balanced attack; QB John Beck had a nice day (16/21, 240, 3 TD), and four different players had rushing TD. Curtis Brown led the BYU running game with 82 yards, but his lone score came on a reception. Great rebound win for BYU after the Arizona loss, and the C-USA remains wide open.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
My Prediction: Pittsburgh
Final Score: Pittsburgh 35, Cincinnati 13
Thoughts: And Pitt lost 3 fumbles, so it could've been worse. Pitt QB Tyler Palko had 267 yards and 3 TD, most of which was to WR Derek Kinder (3 catches, 172 yards, 2 TD.) After splitting time last week, Cincy QB Dustin Grutza saw most of the time over Nick Davila, but only had 189 yards and 21/35 passing, with a 1/2 TD/INT. A pretty impressive win for Pitt, and Cincinnati continues to bore me.
Colorado @ Colorado State
My Prediction: Colorado
Final Score: Colorado State 14, Colorado 10
Thoughts: Hm. Positives for Colorado...positives for Colorado... They had 2 more rushing yards than against Montana State? Colorado State only had 60 rushing yards, but Rams QB Caleb Hanie went 20/23 passing for 233 and a score. It's still unclear where CSU stands, mostly because Colorado is, very obviously, awful.
Duke @ Wake Forest
My Prediction: Wake Forest
Final Score: Wake Forest 14, Duke 13
Thoughts: And they had to block a Duke FG to clinch it, too. I figured to see that the loss of Wake QB Ben Mauk had led to disaster in the passing game, but backup Riley Skinner had an impressive night (22/29, 235, TD.) Instead, star RB Micah Andrews had a letdown of a game, with only 41 yards and a TD. Duke actually outgained Wake 4o8-312, mostly on the arm of QB Thaddeus Lewis, who had 305 yards and a TD on 21/32 passing. Duke is still probably going winless, but I now have no idea what to make of Wake now.
East Carolina @ UAB
My Prediction: East Carolina
Final Score: UAB 17, East Carolina 12
Thoughts: And with that, UAB takes ECU's place as C-USA sleeper. ECU won the yardage battle 376-323, but both teams had 3 turnovers, so there is no other flukiness afoot. Both stars were in the passing game: ECU QB James Pinkney (20/38, 280, 1/1 TD/INT) and UAB's Chris Williams (12/16, 144, 2 TD.)
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State
My Prediction: Michigan State
Final Score: Michigan State 52, Eastern Michigan 20
Thoughts: Drew Stanton had the big game here, with 24/32 passing, 254 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT through the air, and 2 rushing scores. WR Matt Trannon also had 14 (!) receptions, for 151 and 2 TD. Oh, and RB Javon Ringer had 130 rushing. Pretty one-sided, as games where one team doubles the other in yardage (608-304) tend to be.
Florida Atlantic @ Kansas State
My Prediction: Kansas State
Final Score: Kansas State 45, Florida Atlantic 0
Thoughts: KSU only had 351 overall yards, but any shutout this big is still somewhat impressive. At least coming off of the Illinois State disaster. QB Dylan Meier had 120 and 2 TD passing, RB Thomas Clayton had 89 and a score on the ground.
Florida International @ South Florida
My Prediction: South Florida
Final Score: South Florida 21, Florida International 20
Thoughts: Ehhhhh. FIU was actually up 20-7 at the half, and this would've gone to OT if not for a missed XP in the first. FIU WR Chandler Williams was probably the most impressive player on either side, with 129 yards receiving and a punt return TD. USF QB Matt Grothe didn't look good passing (15/28, 174, 1/2 TD/INT), but ran for 82.
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