SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#16 Tennessee (3-1) @ Memphis (1-2)
Whoops, Mississippi is horrible, so Memphis hanging in with them doesn't look that good anymore. The Memphis offense may do something...maybe, but that defense isn't stopping the Vols.
The Pick: Tennessee
Confidence (out of 5): 4
Illinois (1-3) @ #23 Michigan State (3-1)
Normally, I'd worry about a MSU letdown. However, Illinois could not stop Syracuse.
The Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 4
Navy (3-1) @ Connecticut (2-1)
Sigh. Well, Bonislawski's in at QB, and as NC State showed, a team can get a boost off of a quarterback switch. And the UConn defense looked good against the run...of Indiana. Navy looks down this year, but they've still been imposing their will on opposing defenses. With UConn at home, this may be more bias and wishful thinking than anything, but...
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
(And for the record, with Hernandez, this would've been "Navy, 3")
Virginia (1-3) @ Duke (0-3)
Virginia isn't THAT bad. I think. Actually, Duke could win this. But it's still Duke.
The Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 2
Wisconsin (3-1) @ Indiana (2-2)
After seeing Indiana in action against UConn, hoo boy. Awful awful awful awful. Wisconsin looks to at least be decent, and decent is more than enough here.
The Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 3
Toledo (2-2) @ Pittsburgh (3-1)
Toledo seems to mediocre at this point of the year, beating only McNeese State and a Kansas team that doesn't look all that improved. Pitt seems legit, but any Wannstedt-coached team still makes me nervous.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Colorado (0-4) @ Missouri (4-0)
Missouri's probably not 4-0 good, but Colorado...definitely isn't. Even if the Georgia game was Colorado turning the corner, they're probably not at the point where they can win at Missouri yet.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Sam Houston State @ #6 Texas (3-1)
Yep.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
Mississippi State (1-3) @ #8 LSU (3-1)
Mississippi State is horrible. Even if the bad LSU shows up, there's still no intrigue here.
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
Maine @ Boston College (3-1)
Okay, hopefully HERE BC gets their definite solid win.
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
1:30 PM
Wyoming (1-3) @ Syracuse (2-2)
Syracuse actually seems to have an offense now. Against Illinois and Miami of Ohio, at any rate. Wyoming's defense doesn't seem much better, even if they've hung in there with Boise State, Syracuse, and...Virginia. Anyway, Wyoming has a chance, if only because it's Syracuse, but the Orange actually seems improved. Cautious optimism!
The Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
New Mexico (2-2) @ Air Force (1-1)
Air Force actually looks pretty good, running all over Wyoming and the big almost-win at Tennessee. UNM seems to have gotten over their week 1 loss to Portland State. The Lobos beat a pretty good UTEP team at home last week, but I'm not sure if they can beat a team that looks about as good on the road.
The Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 1
Akron (2-2) @ Kent State (2-2)
Ohhhh Jesus. Kent's a surprise, but Akron's NCSU win and loss at CMU look better than Kent's wins at down BGSU and Miami of Ohio teams. Plus Kent lost to Army. Akron could still lose due to homefield advantage and general MACtacular wackiness, but I'm picking the Zips since they're the better team.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Bowling Green (2-2) @ Ohio (2-2)
BGSU looked great in wins against FIU and Buffalo, and then shit the bed against Kent State. Ohio had that weird fluky win against Northern Illinois, and then lost badly to now-ranked Missouri and Rutgers teams. I'll give Ohio the benefit of the doubt at home, but I don't think either team's going anywhere this year.
The Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#24 Alabama (3-1) @ #3 Florida (4-0)
A very intriguing matchup right here. Alabama looks well-rounded, but each individual unit is probably worse than Florida's. I like Alabama as a darkhorse, pretty much the Clemson of the SEC, but I can't pick the upset at Florida.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Purdue (4-0) @ #18 Notre Dame (3-1)
Notre Dame as horribly overrated as Purdue's been horribly lucky. I doubt the Purdue defense will be able to stop that offense. Notre Dame probably won't be able to stop Purdue that much either, but UND just has more firepower.
The Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 3
3:00 PM
#11 California (3-1) @ Oregon State (2-1)
Cal's legit! Now watch them probably lose after I said that. Oregon State's probably improved, but wins over Eastern Washington and Idaho don't convince me they can beat Cal.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3
#21 Boise State (4-0) @ Utah (3-1)
Utah looked bad at UCLA, but whomped the shit out of Northern Arizona, Utah State, and San Diego State. However, only the third is really even moderately impressive. Boise State's been an offensive monster at home, but only won 17-10 in their lone road game at Wyoming. I think Boise's offense is as good as anyone's (I think that's the third time I've said that), but I smell upset.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 1
Stanford (0-4) @ UCLA (2-1)
I've pretty much given up on Stanford.
The Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Idaho (1-3) @ Utah State (0-4)
Idaho looks improved, but still really isn't that good. I thought USU could be a sleeper in the WAC, but the Aggies have only scored one touchdown this season. And it was an interception return. Oof. Idaho hasn't been much better, so I could see an "upset" at USU, but Utah State's pretty much just been pathetic.
The Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#10 Oregon (3-0) @ Arizona State (3-1)
Oh Arizona State, you're just not that good. Oregon's defense is suspect, but ASU's is just as, if not...suspecter.
The Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
#22 Georgia Tech (3-1) @ #19 Virginia Tech (4-0)
VT's played a shit schedule, so I'm not buying into them yet. Calvin Johnson > Joe Dailey, probably even as a quarterback.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Rice (0-4) @ Army (2-2)
Rice has some motivation here and they've looked improved if still Rice. Army's somewhat on a roll, losing close at TAMU and beating Kent and Baylor, but I don't think Rice will let themselves lose this one.
The Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
Miami of Ohio (0-4) @ Cincinnati (1-3)
I didn't realize the RedHawks had lost every game, but Miami of Ohio is obviously having a down year. Cincinnati's hung in there against tough competition, and they've probably looked like the better team this year.
The Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 2
Northwestern (2-2) @ Penn State (2-2)
NW's annoyingly inconsistent. PSU seems way down this year, but they still look good enough to beat teams like this, especially at home.
The Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Texas Tech (3-1) @ Texas A&M (4-0)
TAMU's played such a weak schedule that who knows how good they are. I don't think they're that good, though. Tech still doesn't have that defense, but they still have that offense.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
Liberty @ Wake Forest (4-0)
Wake'll be ranked next week, won't they?
The Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (0-4) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (1-2)
What a weird game. Sun Belt team's a Sun Belt, though, and I think EMU's better than that record. DESLAURIERS!
The Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Arkansas State (1-2) @ Florida International (0-4)
FIU's had some hard luck, but Arkansas State has a running game. And a pretty good safety. I'd think talent would outweigh being due, although this is the Sun Belt.
The Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Ball State (1-3)
Ball State's loss to North Dakota State officially has me off the bandwagon. Plus the lack of a secondary. Garrett Wolfe could run for 200, but if they line him up as a receiver, he could have 400.
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 3
Central Michigan (2-2) @ Kentucky (2-2)
Two teams that look improved this year, although in Kentucky's case I doubt it'll matter much in the SEC pecking order. I'd say they're about even, but Kentucky's at home, and a bottom-of-the-middle-tier SEC team is probably better than a middle of the road SEC team in their backyard.
The Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 2
Houston (4-0) @ Miami (1-2)
I think it says enough about how Miami's fallen that I think the upset can happen. However, with their backs against the wall, I think the Canes should be able to beat a Houston team I'm still kind of skeptical about.
The Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (0-3) @ San Jose State (2-1)
SJSU's improved, but that Stanford win looks a lot less impressive now. SDSU's taken awhile to get on track under new coach Chuck Long, but I think it starts here.
The Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#1 USC (3-0) @ Washington State (3-1)
Wazzou may hang in there for a while. Maybe.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Louisiana Tech (1-2) @ #15 Clemson (3-1)
Clemson's as good as anyone, pretty much. Louisiana Tech's as bad as anyone, pretty much.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 5
Kansas (3-1) @ #17 Nebraska (3-1)
Kansas isn't there yet. Their first starting QB, redshirt frosh Kerry Meier, was an interception machine, and current starter Adam Barmann led them to a loss against South Florida. Nebraska's looked good against bad competition, and should keep up their winning ways here.
The Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3
Florida Atlantic (0-4) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-2)
FAU has delivered on preseason expectations. Unfortunately, FAU was expected to be one of the worst teams in the country.
The Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Northern Iowa @ Iowa State (2-2)
The Cyclones could be able to challenge Nebraska for Big 12 North supremacy. Yep.
The Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 4
Middle Tennessee State (2-2) @ North Texas (1-3)
God, the most impressive win here is probably UNT beating SMU. MTSU was a preseason Sun Belt favorite, but hasn't looked impressive in any of their I-A games. And North Texas is 1-0 at home!
The Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
Temple (0-4) @ Vanderbilt (1-3)
TEMPLE IS SO BAD
The Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 4
Troy (1-3) @ UAB (1-3)
A hard one to figure out. Troy retooled their offense, they've looked alright, and there was the FSU almost-upset. UAB looked much-improved, and then went and lost to Mississippi State. The loss was still kinda close, despite UAB only gaining 192 yards, and they're at home, so why not.
The Pick: UAB
Confidence: 1
7:05 PM
Kansas State (3-1) @ Baylor (1-3)
My faith in Baylor is lost. However, KSU isn't very good.
The Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#2 Michigan (4-0) @ Minnesota (2-2)
Minnesota lost to Purdue, and Michigan can stop the run. No intrigue here, unless Minnesota really really wants that jug.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 4
#4 Ohio State (4-0) @ #9 Iowa (4-0)
OSU hasn't impressed since the Texas game, but neither has Iowa since Drew Tate missed the Syracuse game. Iowa's chances depend on Drew Tate, and he's due for that breakout performance...
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#12 Georgia (4-0) @ Mississippi (1-3)
Ole Miss is so bad. Then again, so was Colorado, so I'm going to dock my confidence rating a bit.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
New Mexico State (2-1) @ UTEP (1-2)
NMSU's not that good, despite their zany passtacular offense. Even if the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience is in full effect, UTEP should win at home.
The Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
SMU (2-2) @ Tulane (1-2)
SMU exploded against Arkansas State, but they looked miserable before that. Tulane lost to much stronger LSU and Houston teams, but managed to beat Mississippi State. Beating a SEC team + home-field advantage > crushing Arkansas State.
The Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
10:00 PM
Washington (3-1) @ Arizona (2-2)
Arizona's probably the better team, but Washington has the better resume. It's about even, but I'll go with talent and Tucson.
The Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Colorado State (2-1) @ Fresno State (1-2)
Fresno's fine, Washington loss aside. They won't be their usual overrated selves, but they'll still be good enough to beat CSU at home.
The Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Nevada (2-2) @ UNLV (1-2)
Nevada's a slow starter. And I'm pretty sure they've started.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Eastern Illinois @ Hawaii (1-2)
PASSTACULAR!
The Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
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