Thursday, September 07, 2006

Week 2 Rundown, Pt. II

SATURDAY
6:30 PM

Arizona (1-0) @ #8 LSU (1-0)
Thoughts: Arizona had a solid win against BYU, but could've lost if not for turnovers. Brigham Young QB John Beck's big performance against the Arizona pass defense doesn't bode well facing an LSU offense that had a big game against UL-Lafayette. There'd be a chance for an upset at Arizona, but in Louisiana, I doubt it.
The Pick: LSU
Confidence (out of 5): 4

Indiana (1-0) @ Ball State (1-0)
Thoughts: Ball State's had a wave of momentum since the end of last season, and despite this game screaming "upset", here is where I think it ends. BSU seemed lucky to beat Eastern Michigan, and Indiana looked good against a Western Michigan team that I feel is better than they played against the Hoosiers. Ball State could still be decent within the MAC, but I feel they lose here.
The Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2


7:00 PM

Air Force (0-0) @ #15 Tennessee (1-0)
Thoughts: We haven't seen Air Force yet, and they could be as decent as anyone in the Mountain West, but if Cal looked that bad at Tennessee, I don't think Air Force will look better.
The Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5

Utah State (0-1) @ Arkansas (0-1)
Thoughts: I liked Utah State going into this year, but an awful, awful performance at Wyoming has changed that. Arkansas didn't look much better against USC, but USC is 50 times the team Wyoming is. I wouldn't have picked the upset if USU was 1-0, and I'm definitely not going to now.
The Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5

Northwestern State @ Baylor (0-1)
Thoughts: Baylor stayed in it against TCU, though the running game and the conditioning staff (Baylor players dropped left and right due to cramping late) both looked horrible. Here's where they hopefully get things back on track.
The Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 4

Minnesota (1-0) @ #16 Cal (0-1)
Thoughts: Okay, Cal looked bad, especially the secondary. And Minnesota looked great in crushing a hapless Kent State team. But Minnesota is a running team, this game is at Cal, and the Golden Bears have something to prove. Minnesota should be fine this season, but I could see them losing big.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4

East Carolina (0-1) @ UAB (0-1)
Thoughts: An intriguing matchup. ECU has generally been considered to have more talent, but UAB's close loss against Oklahoma is cause for some optimism in what was thought to be a rebuilding year. I'm still not sold on UAB, however, and ECU QB James Pinkney's performance against Navy makes me favor them here.
The Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1

Florida International (0-1) @ South Florida (1-0)
Thoughts: The USF offense showed signs of life, albeit against a I-AA, and that should mean they win here. I could see the upset if it was a defensive struggle, but I don't think that's going to happen.
The Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 4

Tulane (0-0) @ Houston (1-0)
Thoughts: Houston barely escaped with a win against Rice of all teams, but I still have them near the top of the C-USA. Plus Houston-Rice is a rivalry game, so that may be a factor in Rice being up for it. Tulane should be improved from last year, if only for the obvious reasons, but I still can't pick them over Houston.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3

UNLV (1-0) @ Iowa State (1-0)
Thoughts: UNLV looked good against Idaho State, but Iowa State just beat MAC powerhouse Toledo. Idaho State QB Matt Gutierrez had a good game against UNLV's secondary, so Iowa State could be in for another fun shootout. I can't imagine anything but the same result, however.
The Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 4

Louisiana-Monroe (1-0) @ Kansas (1-0)
Thoughts: It's a Big 12 North team, so you never know. ULM could get the running game going, but being outgained through the air by Alcorn State makes me think they won't pull off the upset.
The Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 4

Louisiana-Lafayette (0-1) @ Texas A&M (1-0)
Thoughts: A&M looked decent against The Citadel, and probably would've given up less yards if not for turnovers. I'm not sold on TAMU rebounding, but Louisiana-Lafayette's absolutely abysmal offensive output against LSU last week prevents me from even considering the upset.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 5

Florida A&M @ #14 Miami (0-1)
Thoughts: Miami will win.
The Pick: Miami
Confidence: 5

SMU (0-1) @ North Texas (0-1)
Thoughts: God, someone has to win this one. UNT is no longer the Sun Belt powerhouse they were, and got absolutely depantsed by Texas, only gaining 54 yards. SMU wasn't much better, with star RB DeMyron Martin being shut down against Texas Tech of all teams. I felt SMU could have a comeback year, and North Texas is still a middling Sun Belt team, so hopefully the Mustangs can get on track.
The Pick: SMU
Confidence: 3

Southeastern Louisiana @ Southern Miss (0-1)
Thoughts: There's some offensive nervousness regarding USM, but if Southeastern Louisiana can be held to 15 by New Mexico State, I think they'll be fine here.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 5

UC Davis @ #25 TCU (1-0)
Thoughts: TCU didn't impress against Baylor, and UC Davis had last year's big I-AA upset over Stanford, but I doubt lightning will strike twice, at least regarding the latter.
The Pick: TCU
Confidence: 5

Toledo (0-1) @ Western Michigan (0-1)
Thoughts: Before the season, I could've considered WMU pulling the upset. But Western Michigan looked bad against Indiana, and new Toledo QB Clint Cochran was a beast against Iowa State. The Broncos still have a chance to win the Directional Michigan Showdowns, but I give them little hope here.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 4


7:05 PM

Oklahoma State (1-0) @ Arkansas State (1-0)
Thoughts: Arkansas State's running game looked excellent against Army, and OK State's defense disappointed last week, so there's some intrigue here. Still, the Cowboy offense looked good themselves last week, with half of QB Bobby Reid's 8 completions being taken in for touchdowns. I think Arkansas State has a legitimate shot, but I'm not fully on the bandwagon yet.
The Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1


7:10 PM

Florida Atlantic (0-1) @ Kansas State (1-0)
Thoughts: Kansas State looked awful in almost losing to I-AA Illinois State, but FAU may have looked worse getting pounded by Clemson. KSU probably won't be any good, but FAU may finish last in the Sun Belt.
The Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3


7:45 PM

#18 Georgia (1-0) @ South Carolina (1-0)
Thoughts: The SC offense looked horrible against a, luckily even worse, Mississippi State team, but that probably won't last under Spurrier. Georgia has a killer defense, and a number of offensive players looked good against I-AA Western Kentucky, so they're my pick here. However, they're the type of team overrated by the polls (#12?) that I think could falter. If the Gamecocks had been their usual selves last week, I might pick the upset.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2


8:00 PM

Chattanooga @ Memphis (0-1)
Thoughts: Memphis lost to Ole Miss, but still looked impressive, especially new QB Martin Hankins. They should keep things rolling.
The Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 5

New Mexico (0-1) @ New Mexico State (1-0)
Thoughts: New Mexico State's offense looked good in its I-AA tuneup game. New Mexico lost theirs by two scores. UNM may have something to prove, but at NMSU, I don't think they will.
The Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2

#2 Ohio State (1-0) @ #3 Texas (1-0)
Thoughts: Oh boy. I'm actually somewhat confident that Texas will win this, however. Garrett Wolfe ran all over the Ohio State defense, so I think Texas's RB corps can do the same. The Texas defense also looked excellent, so they can win purely on rushing and defense. Colt McCoy may be rattled by the big-game atmosphere, but I think he'll do fine at home. But can the Texas D stop that high-powered Ohio State offense!? Yes.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3

Northern Arizona @ Utah (0-1)
Thoughts: After last week, this may not be the best I-AA for Utah to tune up against. Still, I think the Utes are a better team than they showed at UCLA.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 4


9:00 PM
#24 Texas Tech (1-0) @ UTEP (1-0)
Thoughts: UTEP should be one of the better C-USA teams this year, so this will probably be a common upset pick. However, UTEP QB Jordan Palmer had an awful 3/4 TD/INT against San Diego State, and Texas Tech had a freaky good defensive showing against SMU.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3


10:00 PM

Nevada (0-1) @ #23 Arizona State (1-0)
Thoughts: Nevada looked good in a loss last week, while Arizona State looked significantly less so despite a win. The temptation for the upset pick is here, but ASU seemed to gel by the end and Nevada is typically slow to start.
The Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2

#22 Oregon (1-0) @ Fresno State (1-0)
Thoughts: It took the USC game for me to FINALLY buy Fresno State as something legit, but they proved my usual suspicions right by choking down the stretch. I will not make the same mistake again.
The Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 4

Rice (0-1) @ UCLA (1-0)
Thoughts: Both teams impressed me last week, with Rice hanging in their against Houston and UCLA beating Utah pretty handily. I still attribute the former to the Houston-Rice rivalry, and Utah is a better team than the Rice team that showed up last week.
The Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 5

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