Thursday, September 21, 2006

Week 4 Rundown: Friday and Saturday

FRIDAY
8:00 PM

Northwestern (2-1) @ Nevada (1-2)
Northwestern's been frustratingly inconsistent, while Nevada's given it a go against tougher competition. Nevada usually takes a while to get going, and I think they'll do so here and at home, doing enough to win even if the Good Northwestern shows up.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence (out of 5): 2


SATURDAY
12:00 PM

Wisconsin (3-0) @ #5 Michigan (3-0)
Mayyyyybe at Wisconsin, but in the Big House, no. Plus who knows how good the Badgers even are with how weak their schedule's been.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 4

#14 Iowa (3-0) @ Illinois (1-2)
Even if Drew Tate isn't playing, Illinois is apparently even worse than Syracuse.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 4

North Carolina (1-2) @ #17 Clemson (2-1)
Joe Dailey isn't starting anymore, and UNC has a way of getting big upset wins, but I still don't think this will be one. The Tar Heel defense looked too bad against Furman.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 4

Cincinnati (1-2) @ #18 Virginia Tech (3-0)
I'm not fully sold on Tech, but I've already sold on Cinci-- YAWWWWWWWN --nnati.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 4

Minnesota (2-1) @ Purdue (3-0)
I am absolutely shocked Purdue is 3-0, and considering they played Indiana State, Miami of Ohio and Ball State, that says something. Minnesota isn't really that good, but they should at least be able to run on this defense.
The Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 2


12:10 PM

#11 Louisville (3-0) @ Kansas State (3-0)
This screams trap game, and KSU is beginning to get things together, but I don't think the Wildcats are the level of team that will give the Louisville B-Squad trouble.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2


12:30 PM

Colorado (0-3) @ #10 Georgia (3-0)
Oh jesus, this could get ugly. Colorado may not crack 100 yards.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 5


1:00 PM

Kent State (1-2) @ Bowling Green (2-1)
Oh god, the MAC. BGSU had two QBs that have looked good (albeit against Buffalo and FIU), and while Kent got a win over Miami of Ohio, I'm picking the home team.
The Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1


1:30 PM

Tulsa (2-1) @ Navy (3-0)
Tulsa's a talented team, whooping at the hands of BYU notwithstanding. I have some questions about Navy's defense, but they've just been running all over everything and nobody's been able to stop them, so why should Tulsa?
The Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1

The Citadel @ Pittsburgh (2-1)
Yawn.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4


2:00 PM

Ohio (2-1) @ Missouri (3-0)
I'm still not sure what to make of Ohio, but Missouri's already beat much better teams.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4

Howard @ Rutgers (3-0)
I assume the Rutgers running game will continue to dominate here.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 5


2:30 PM

Buffalo (1-2) @ #4 Auburn (3-0)
Hahahahahahahaha. Ha. Hahaha. Ha. Ha ha ha. Ha.
The Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5


3:00 PM

Utah State (0-3) @ BYU (1-2)
Utah State's been horribly disappointing, especially on offense. BYU's had the expected high-powered passing game, even if it hasn't gotten this many wins. They should get one here, though.
The Pick: BYU
Confidence: 5


3:05 PM

Indiana State @ Northern Illinois (1-2)
Will Garrett Wolfe get 300?
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 5


3:30 PM

Penn State (2-1) @ #2 Ohio State (3-0)
If Penn State can't stop the UND offense, this could get ugly.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4

Iowa State (2-1) @ #6 Texas (2-1)
Texas is just in another league right now. ISU should be much improved, however, and still could give Nebraska a run.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3

Arizona State (3-0) @ #13 Cal (2-1)
The Sun Devils just haven't impressed me at all. Cal's defense concerns me a bit, but they still have an overall higher talent level, and they're at home, so I can't imagine them losing, even if it's a shootout.
The Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4

#23 Alabama (3-0) @ Arkansas (2-1)
I still don't see THAT big of an improvement with Arkansas. Next year I think they could make some noise, but I think the Bama defense should shut them down, especially with a frosh QB.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3

Rice (0-3) @ #24 Florida State (2-1)
FSU isn't THAT bad.
The Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 4

Central Michigan (1-2) @ Eastern Michigan (0-3)
CMU's looked more impressive and has a stud DE in Dan Bazuin. However, this is the crazy-ass MAC, and Eastern has great WR Eric Deslauriers.
The Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 1

Connecticut (1-1) @ Indiana (2-1)
Indiana lost to Southern Illinois, but may be motivated to win for their returning coach. For UConn's sake, the Huskies better not let them.
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2

UCLA (2-0) @ Washington (2-1)
UCLA beat Utah, but I'm still skeptical. I'm not sure what to make of Washington yet, but they seem improved so what the hey.
The Pick: Washington
Confidence: 1


4:00 PM

Marshall (1-2) @ #16 Tennessee (2-1)
Marshall's been tremendously disappointing this year. They're no Air Force.
The Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5


4:30 PM

#7 West Virginia (3-0) @ East Carolina (1-2)
I'm only giving this 4 confidence because I finally admitted WVU could go undefeated, which usually means they'll lose this week.
The Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4

Air Force (0-1) @ Wyoming (1-2)
Air Force looked good at Tennessee, but I have my concerns about small sample size. Wyoming murdered Utah State, and played Boise and Virginia close, so I give them the edge at home.
The Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1


5:00 PM

North Carolina A&T @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-2)
If SMU can beat a I-AA, sure, why not.
The Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3

UTEP (1-1) @ New Mexico (1-2)
UNM lost to Portland State, so they're not any good. UTEP should win this despite the Jordan Palmer Interception Experience.
The Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3

Washington State (2-1) @ Stanford (0-3)
I don't think Stanford is this bad, but they still have absolutely no defense. Wazzou's been underwhelming, but they should be able to put up some yardage here.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1


6:00 PM

North Texas (1-2) @ Akron (1-2)
Akron's been MAC-tastically inconsistent, but if North Texas can only managed 89 yards against Tulsa, I think the Zips'll win this one.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 4

Florida International (0-3) @ Maryland (2-1)
Maryland'll pick up another win before they start ACC play and get absolutely whooped. Good for them.
The Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 4

Wake Forest (3-0) @ Mississippi (1-2)
3-0? Really? Wake didn't impress me at all against UConn, and while Ole Miss has been inconsistent, they have the talent to win here. Especially at home.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 2

Cal Poly @ San Jose State (1-1)
While this would be a hilarious letdown, I'll be nice.
The Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 3


6:30 PM

North Dakota State @ Ball State (1-2)
Ball State's a fine MAC team, even if they have no secondary.
The Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 4


7:00 PM

Middle Tennessee State (2-1) @ #14 Oklahoma (2-1)
Defensive concerns aside, OU should obviously be fine here.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5

Army (1-2) @ Baylor (1-2)
Army almost beat Texas A&M, but Baylor still was able to keep it close at Wazzou without a rushing game. Army can't stop anyone from running, so if Baylor is able to get anything going on the ground, which they should, the Bears should win at home.
The Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 2

Florida Atlantic (0-3) @ South Carolina (2-1)
It remains to be seen if South Carolina is that bad. FAU is one of the worst teams in I-A, so that will continue.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4

South Florida (3-0) @ Kansas (2-1)
I normally don't take stock in turnovers, but KU QB Kerry Meier has proven himself to be quite interception-prone. USF has a good defense and, apparently, an offense to speak of, so I give them the nod here.
The Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1

Louisiana Tech (1-1) @ Texas A&M (3-0)
Army may be better than Louisiana Tech, so the Bulldogs won't be much of a threat, even if A&M doesn't appear to be very good.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4

Miami of Ohio (0-3) @ Syracuse (1-2)
The RedHawks have been better than that 0-3 record. I think Syracuse may have used up all their offense against Illinois, and pretty much consider that game an abberation.
The Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1

Mississippi State (0-3) @ UAB (1-2)
Mississippi State may have a worse offense than Syracuse.
The Pick: UAB
Confidence: 3

Temple (0-3) @ Western Michigan (2-1)
It's Temple.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 4

Southeastern Louisiana @ Texas Tech (2-1)
Tech should put up 90 or so, but I think they actually might not be able to stop the SELA offense.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 5

McNeese State @ Toledo (1-2)
Yawn.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 5

Tennessee State @ Vanderbilt (0-3)
YAWWWWWWWN.
The Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 5


7:10 PM

Troy (1-2) @ #19 Nebraska (2-1)
Troy could win the Sun Belt. There's a minor chance of a letdown and an upset, but the Troy offense seems too turnover-prone for it to happen.
The Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 4


7:45 PM

Kentucky (2-1) @ #3 Florida (3-0)
Splat.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5


8:00 PM

#1 USC (3-0) @ Arizona (2-1)
Arizona's a year off. Arizona could show up and keep it competitive for a while, but USC'll eventually overwhelm them.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4

Tulane (1-1) @ #8 LSU (2-1)
Tulane looks decent. Decent is not good, nor is it good enough here.
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5

#15 Notre Dame (2-1) @ #20 Michigan State (3-0)
This one will be a fun shootout. Unfortunately, if the Penn State defense can't disrupt the UND offense, I don't think Michigan State will be able to. Michigan State is at home, however, and they could easily pull off the "upset", but I see Notre Dame winning, again, a fun shootout.
The Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1

Hawaii (1-1) @ #21 Boise State (3-0)
Ooh, this should be a WACtastic shootout. Boise has their defensive concerns, but Hawaii has more. Plus the game's at Boise.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4

#25 Boston College (3-0) @ NC State (1-2)
BC should finally get their definite win here. NCSU deserves nothing more than this sentence.
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4

Arkansas State (1-1) @ SMU (1-2)
Wow, SMU kind of has an offense. Arkansas State has a better one, however. AND Arkansas State has a great safety.
The Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1

Utah (2-1) @ San Diego State (0-2)
An intriguing game. SDSU looked bad against Wisconsin, but so did Utah against UCLA (before beating up and Utah State and a I-AA that escapes me). This could go either way, but I'll go with my preseason favorite.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 1


9:00 PM

Oklahoma State (3-0) @ Houston (3-0)
Both teams have played light enough schedules where it's not really clear where they stand. OK State isn't supposed to be above mediocre this year, however, and Houston is at home with that great offense.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2


10:00 PM

Idaho (1-2) @ Oregon State (1-1)
Idaho's improved, but not enough to win at Oregon State. Teams are probably closer than one would figure, though.
The Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3

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