Well, this was a bad week for me to be exhausted. YOUR WEEK 3 RUNDOWN:
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
BYU (1-1) @ Boston College (2-0)
Thoughts: BYU, especially QB John Beck, had a big day against Tulsa in week 2. However, BC had a better week. In Provo, maybe, but here?
The Pick: Boston College
Confidence (out of 5): 3
Cincinnati (1-1) @ #2 Ohio State (2-0)
Thoughts: Duh.
The Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (2-0) @ Connecticut (1-0)
Thoughts: I'll be here! A really odd situation with Wake. Their senior QB broke his arm and Wake subsequently almost lost to Duke. So you'd think that was because of the passing game, right? No, it was the running game, Wake Forest's bread and butter, that let the Demon Deacons down. Wake RB Micah Andrews may rebound in this game, but I still think the UConn secondary does enough to stop Wake through the air. I still have some concerns about the Husky offense, but if Duke can put up 13, they should be fine at home.
The Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Duke (0-2) @ #20 Virginia Tech (2-0)
Thoughts: Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis is probably better than Joe Dailey, but the Blue Devils still have no chance.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (0-2) @ Illinois (1-1)
Thoughts: Wow, someone has to win this one. The Illini have a running game, but if QB Tim Brasic throws for only 46 against Rutgers, I can't imagine them winning, even at home. Hopefully Syracuse's defense can score some points, since I'm not sure the offense will do much.
The Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (2-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-0)
Thoughts: Michigan State is inconsistent as hell, and Pittsburgh has a good defense, but I think Drew Stanton and Javon Ringer will be too much. Tyler Palko will probably have a huge day as the Panthers keep trying to catch up.
The Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 2
12:05 PM
Iowa State (2-0) @ #11 Iowa (2-0)
Thoughts: ISU struggled to beat UNLV. Drew Tate is playing.
The Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Arkansas (1-1) @ Vanderbilt (0-2)
Thoughts: Vandy's faced some tough defenses, but their offense still doesn't look any good. Even if they put some points on the board, I can't imagine Arkansas wouldn't put up more.
The Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Marshall (1-1) @ Kansas State (2-0)
Thoughts: Marshall hasn't looked good this year, even giving up 31 to Hofstra. Admittedly, KSU almost lost to Illinois State in week 1, but their thrashing of FAU makes me think they have things somewhere close to "together."
The Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Akron (1-1) @ Central Michigan (0-2)
Thoughts: CMU looked good losing to BC, so there's some hope here. Akron beat NC State last week, and while that doesn't mean much anymore, they should win this road game as well.
The Pick: Akron
Confidence: 3
Ball State (1-1) @ Purdue (2-0)
Thoughts: Purdue can run it, but the key is QB Curtis Painter vs. the Ball State secondary. Indiana third-stringer Kellen Lewis had a big game passing against Ball State. There you go.
The Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
UAB (1-1) @ #19 Georgia (2-0)
Thoughts: UAB's much better than expected, and Matt Stafford was horrible against South Carolina, so there's some intrigue here. I think the UGA running game will win it for them, however.
The Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 4
1:30 PM
Troy (1-1) @ Georgia Tech (1-1)
Thoughts: The Troy offense still didn't look that impressive last week, despite the close score at FSU. The GT defense should also make Troy look bad, and on offense, they have Calvin Johnson.
The Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (0-2) @ Northwestern (1-1)
Thoughts: Northwestern had the horrible loss to UNH last week, but that was mostly turnovers. EMU's looked decent, but if Northwestern doesn't keep turning it over, they should win easy here.
The Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 4
Kent State (0-2) @ Miami of Ohio (0-2)
Thoughts: Miami of Ohio's played two Big Ten teams. Kent State got shut down by Army.
The Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 4
Temple (0-2) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Thoughts: As much as I don't buy Minnesota this year, come on. It's Temple.
The Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
South Florida (2-0) @ Central Florida (1-1)
Thoughts: UCF got utterly depantsed against Florida, but USF's offense hasn't done much all year. USF's defense could have a good day, but I can't see this anemic Bulls offense beating a rival on the road.
The Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#5 LSU (2-0) @ #4 Auburn (2-0)
Thoughts: Ohhhh boy. Kenny Irons had a bad day against Mississippi State, while the LSU defense absolutely destroyed a decent Arizona team. If Irons had had a big day, I'd have no qualms about picking Auburn at home. But as it is, my gut says I should pick...
The Pick: LSU
Confidence: 1
#22 Boise State (2-0) @ Wyoming (1-1)
Thoughts: Wyoming has some potential, but after BSU's utter destruction of Oregon State, I doubt the Cowboys will be able to show any.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#14 Miami (1-1) @ #12 Louisville (2-0)
Thoughts: Brian Brohm vs. the Miami secondary. Oooooh. Louisville's been good against the run, and Kyle Wright only looked mediocre against Florida A&M, so I think that'll be the difference. I could easily see the Miami pass D taking over, but I'm picking the "upset" for the time being.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
#8 Michigan (2-0) @ #6 Notre Dame (2-0)
Thoughts: GT looks to be a good defensive team, and Michigan looks to be better. I think Michigan can disrupt Brady Quinn, and then take over with the running game. Rushing and defense, rushing and defense.
The Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 2
Ohio (2-0) @ Rutgers (2-0)
Thoughts: The Rutgers running game is insane right now, and I don't think Ohio is going to be the team to stop it.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
#9 Oklahoma (2-0) @ #17 Oregon (2-0)
Thoughts: Oklahoma's defense hasn't looked good at all, and while Oregon's win over Stanford looks a lot less impressive now, they've still been a good team. And they're at home. Basically, I have no reason for picking Oklahoma except that when conventional wisdom says the upset will happen, it usually won't. But that's enough for me.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 1
Youngstown State @ #25 Penn State (1-1)
Thoughts: PENGUINS!
The Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
San Diego State (0-1) @ Wisconsin (2-0)
Thoughts: Wisconsin's defense has looked suspect, but the Badgers offense, especially the running game, have looked good. If SDSU couldn't beat UTEP with The Jordan Palmer Interception Experience in full effect, they're not doing it here.
The Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
Western Michigan (1-1) @ Virginia (1-1)
Virginia only gained 241 against Wyoming, and could've lost if not for a missed XP in OT. WMU was also outgained in their win against Toledo, but a lucky win against a top MAC team is better than a lucky win against Wyoming, especially when you're an ACC team.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Southern Illinois @ Indiana (2-0)
I'm as shocked as you are that Indiana will probably start the year 3-0.
The Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 3
5:00 PM
Baylor (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
Baylor should be much improved, but Wazzou is coming off of a 651-yard performance. At Baylor, there'd be a better chance of the upset, but here, not so much.
The Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 4
5:05 PM
Idaho State @ Idaho (0-2)
Idaho's looked less outclassed than usual so far this year, so they should be fine.
The Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 4
5:30 PM
Texas Tech (2-0) @ #24 TCU (2-0)
Two disappointing teams. TCU still could go undefeated if they win this game, but their performance against Baylor has me down on them as a whole. The TCU pass defense has been mediocre, so I obviously think that is going to be a problem here. Tech still doesn't have a defense, but here I think that should be enough.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Bowling Green (1-1) @ Florida International (0-2)
BGSU dominated the Buffalo game despite the close score, so they're better than you'd think, even if this is a down year. FIU should be better than Buffalo, but I don't think it'll make much difference.
The Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (1-1) @ Kentucky (1-1)
There's always the outside chance BenJarvus Green-Ellis could break his leg. Otherwise, he should run all over the Wildcats.
The Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 4
#7 Texas (1-1) @ Rice (0-2)
Rice hasn't looked that bad so far this season. This will change.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
6:15 PM
Portland State @ #16 California (1-1)
Yawn.
The Pick: California
Confidence: 5
6:30 PM
Fresno State (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Fresno RB Dwyane Wright has looked great this year, and the Bulldogs almost upset Oregon, a much better team than Washington. Once Fresno wins here, it will surely be shown as a BIG WIN OVER A MAJOR CONFERENCE OPPONENT!!!!!
The Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
#21 Arizona State (2-0) @ Colorado (0-2)
Maybe Colorado'll crack 200 yards? Maybe?
The Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 5
Memphis (1-1) @ East Carolina (0-2)
Memphis's offense has looked better than ECU's. Memphis's defense has looked better than ECU's. ECU's underperformed, admittedly, but with the emergence of Memphis's passing game, and Joseph Doss filling in well enough for DeAngelo Williams, the Tigers should win here.
The Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Florida Atlantic (0-2) @ Oklahoma State (2-0)
FAU's a lower-tier Sun Belt team. That's all you really need to know.
The Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 5
Grambling State @ Houston (2-0)
No real contest here. Maybe a few years ago.
The Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Nicholls State @ Louisiana Tech (0-1)
THE BATTLE FOR TEAM THAT LOST TO NEBRASKA SUPREMACY! Who knows how good LA Tech will be this year, but it should be better than Nicholls State.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 4
Tulane (0-1) @ Mississippi State (0-2)
Tulane has looked awful in their one game this year. Mississippi State, however, has been proven to be awful. And have no offense.
The Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 3
NC State (1-1) @ Southern Miss (1-1)
All signs point to Southern Miss winning here, what with NC State losing to an above-average mid major at home last week. Part of me wants to pick NC State just because conventional wisdom is usually wrong, but the pull isn't strong enough.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
Furman @ North Carolina (0-2)
Finally, UNC plays a team where the defense can more than make up for Joe Dailey.
The Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 3
North Texas (1-1) @ Tulsa (1-1)
Tulsa is better than they showed against BYU. An upper-tier C-USA team > the Sun Belt. Especially at home.
The Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
Wofford @ South Carolina (1-1)
Hopefully here's where the Gamecock offense gets things on track, even without QB Blake Mitchell.
The Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 5
7:07 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (1-1) @ Alabama (2-0)
The most interesting thing here is the start time.
The Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
7:35 PM
Buffalo (1-1) @ Northern Illinois (0-2)
NIU's 0-2 is much more impressive than Buffalo's 1-1. The NIU secondary's been weak, so Buffalo QB Drew Willy may have a good day, but Garrett Wolfe should run for another 200 or so.
The Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#23 Clemson (1-1) @ #13 Florida State (2-0)
Clemson actually played better than BC this week, and if Clemson was 2-0, this would look a lot less like an upset. FSU has no running game, and I can't imagine them doing much against the Clemson defense. Meanwhile, FSU has a killer D, but I think Clemson has enough weapons to pull this one out.
The Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#3 Florida (2-0) @ #15 Tennessee (2-0)
The temptation is there to say that Chris Leak will be Black Peyton Manning'd. However, I think the Florida defense may be able to disrupt some things, and we'll see if Erik Ainge pulls out his fainting goat impression.
The Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
Missouri (2-0) @ New Mexico (1-1)
Missouri's looked good against a I-AA and gave up 188 total yards to Mississippi. New Mexico lost to a I-AA and gave up 472 passing yards in their win against New Mexico State. One's a bit more impressive than the other.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 5
#18 Nebraska (2-0) @ #1 USC (1-0)
Way to beat Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State.
The Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Texas Southern @ New Mexico State (1-1)
After facing an actual I-A opponent, it's back to NMSU's comfort zone.
The Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Sam Houston State @ SMU (0-2)
You know what? SMU's looked so awful, I'm going to violate one of my cardinal rules.
The Pick: Sam Houston State
Confidence: 1
8:05 PM
Utah (1-1) @ Utah State (0-2)
The USU offense has looked so bad this year that I can't predict the upset.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
Colorado State (2-0) @ Nevada (0-2)
CSU's wins have been over Weber State and Colorado; I'll leave it up to you which is more impressive. Nevada fell back to earth at Arizona State after a good offensive performance against Fresno, and I think they can rebound back at home.
The Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
9:15 PM
Army (1-1) @ Texas A&M (2-0)
I'm not sold on A&M, but Army's pretty bad.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 4
10:00 PM
Stephen F. Austin @ Arizona (1-1)
Arizona's back at home against a bad opponent. Duh.
The Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 5
Navy (2-0) @ Stanford (0-2)
Navy always has that one weird loss every year that you look back on confused. Here you go.
The Pick: Stanford
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
UNLV (1-1) @ Hawaii (0-1)
The supposedly improved UNLV secondary looks mediocre. This is not good news. Plus the game's at Hawaii.
The Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
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