Monday, October 01, 2007

The TFFE Top 25: After Week 5

#1 LSU (5-0, #1 last week)
Easily, despite their struggles against Tulane. The only other team that's had dominating performance like LSU has this year has been Oklahoma, and LSU has both not lost and done it against better teams.

#2 USC (4-0, #4)
They're very good, and the Washington win was actually impressive in how much they dominated despite their own mistakes. Probably the most well-rounded of the three elite teams, but have yet to have that dominating performance like LSU had over Mississippi State or Ohio State had over Akron and Northwestern.

#3 Ohio State (5-0, #5)
A bit of a mini-LSU thing going on here, with a pretty good offense and an excellent defense. Not quite as proven as the other two, but pretty much the same results.

#4 Oregon (4-1, #8)
Yes, I'm aware they lost, but the game against Cal was essentially a draw, and with all teams ahead of them losing, well, why not. Still my #2 team in the Pac 10, even if Cal closed the gap (and jumped ahead of Arizona State). The usual dangerous Pac 10 offense, and a defense that isn't particularly great like USC's, but is better than the usual non-existent Pac 10 fare.

#5 West Virginia (4-1, #3)
As I mentioned in my recap, they moved the ball pretty well against USF, and it may have been a different result in Pat White was in for the entire game. The offense is somewhat stoppable, which bumps the team down from an elite level to second amongst the "extremely good" ones, but they're probably still the best team in the Big East.

#6 Georgia (4-1, #9)
Surprisingly high mostly due to attrition, but they probably would beat most of the teams below them. Even though South Carolina beat them. Huh, funny how that works. A very well-rounded team, as Matthew Stafford's been a passable caretaker at QB, while the defense and especially the running game do the dirty work.

#7 South Carolina (4-1, #11)
Another well-rounded team - nothing really exceptional, just overall, very good. Yes, they beat Georgia, but, well...they lost more recently. So there.

#8 Wisconsin (5-0, #10)
Always pretty good, never great. The Michigan State win was a nice one, but giving up that much to the MSU offense is somewhat of a red flag. QB Tyler Donovan looks to be coming along nicely, and RB P.J. Hill's been as good as expected.

#9 Oklahoma (4-1, #2)
Last week was a disaster outside of the running game remaining solid - first-year QB Sam Bradford regressed horribly, and the defense didn't look that great either. Still, if that was an abberation rather than a trend, they deserve to be much higher.

#10 South Florida (4-0, #16)
They're very good! They've shown they can beat teams with top-tier talent that are shaky (I'm thinking of, say, Texas), but I'm still not picking them ahead teams like OU, who've been dominant outside of one abberation, or Wisconsin, who've been consistently very good themselves.

#11 Florida (4-1, #7)
They're very good, if probably too young to be in the national title race. They're still improving though, and Tim Tebow is a one-man offense. Now all they need is a one-man secondary.

#12 California (5-0, #20)
The Oregon win moved them from the top of the very good teams into the top tier, at least in my eyes. And as I said in the recap, if you're a team with a liability of a secondary that can win a shootout with anyone, the Pac 10's the conference to be in. They're a team that can run the table, but I still think if they play any team I have ahead of them, Oregon included, that secondary's going to be exploited for a win 8 or so times out of 10.

#13 Texas (4-1, #6)
And falling. The most talented of the teams that haven't really proven themselves as top contenders. They obviously have a lot of talent, but Colt McCoy's been just as shaky as that suspect secondary has.

#14 Missouri (4-0, #15)
One of the better of the many all-offense no-defense teams out there. I think.

#15 Arizona State (5-0, #18)
Just smashed the shit out of Stanford, as they've done against most inferior competition, although that was ASU's first road game. Still somewhat unproven, although that win over Colorado looks a lot better now.

#16 Miami (4-1, #19)
That defense is as good as anyone's, and the offense finally seems to be humming along pretty well. They aren't quite re-established yet, but of the teams with established defenses and questions on offense, theirs seems to be doing the best.

#17 Boston College (5-0, #23)
Mostly moving up this high thanks to attrition. BC's historically been pretty good, not great, and they've looked pretty good, not great against obviously inferior competition. They, along with 8 or 9 other teams, will probably go 5-3 or 6-2ish in the ACC; BC just happens to be the one that's won their first five games.

#18 Texas A&M (4-1, #24)
As I've said, the balance that I loved last year seems to be ditched in favor of a mostly run-based attack. They do it as good as anyone, which is why they're up here, but against a team with a very good run defense, like, say, Miami, that can cause some problems.

#19 Virginia Tech (4-1, #14)
That offense played so badly it might as well have been a loss. Virginia Tech remains well coached, and QB Tyrod Taylor should improve, but between an awful offense and a defense that's been solid but not overly impressive, the Hokies need to show something and fast.

#20 Purdue (5-0, #25)
Pretty good. Pret-tay, pret-tay good. And really not much more to say. Very good offense, decent if somewhat suspect defense, and that plus a 5-0 record is enough to get you up here in such a wide-open year.

#21 Illinois (4-1, --)
I'm as surprised as you are, actually. Another pretty good, but not great team, and one that's young enough to improve every week going forward. The defense is solid, led by J Leman, running back Rashard Mendenhall is very good, and God help us all if Juice Williams stops getting by on talent and actually matures as a quarterback.

#22 Penn State (3-2, #13)
Hey, Illinois beat them. I mentioned the all-defense, suspect-offense teams above, and Penn State probably has the best defense of them all. It's just that QB Anthony Morelli is very, very bad, and he would've gotten better by now if he was ever going to.

#23 Cincinnati (5-0, --)
A lot of their wins were inflated due to some insane turnover margins, but this in fact a very good team. Wake Forest transfer Ben Mauk has been a revelation at QB, the defense has played well, and Brian Kelly was an excellent hire as a head coach. They're no USF, but they're no...some team that's very overrated. Kentucky! God, I hope Kentucky winds up flaming out or I'll look bad.

#24 Florida State (3-1, --)
A bit of a conjecture based on how they played against Bama, but why not? The defense seemed to be pretty good, the offense seemed fine, and if the team is adapting to the new coaching scheme, they should be getting real better real soon. And they have as much of a shot of winning the ACC as anyone but Duke or UNC.

#25 Hawaii (5-0, #21)
Colt Brennan's five picks against Idaho worries me, even if he was still insanely productive otherwise. The Warriors make it in over Boise State because, obviously, that offense can go crazy and beat pretty much anyone on every given week. The Idaho game may have been their scare, at least as much as a 52-20 win can be, but this looks like a team that'll lose in the WAC somewhere along the way.

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