SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Kent State (3-3) @ #2 Ohio State (6-0)
Kent State's a fine team, probably slightly better than that 3-3 record. But anyway, Ohio State's defense seems to be the best non-LSU unit out there, and should easily shut down Kent enough to win even if the Buckeyes offense struggles.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 5
Central Florida (3-2) @ #11 South Florida (5-0)
As USF's close win against FAU showed, USF is a beatable team; of course, they're probably the best team that UCF can beat. And much like FAU essentially was, this is a rivalry game, where pretty much anything can happen. Plus, while FAU is a pretty good Sun Belt team, they don't have the nation's leading rusher, which would be UCF back Kevin Smith. Oh what the hell, I'll pull the trigger - UCF came close against Texas, and the chance they can pull it off here isn't half bad.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Duke (1-5)
Honestly, this'd be less surprising to me than UNC upsetting Miami last week. Duke's been putting up solid yardage numbers, and should be able to parlay it into an upset somewhere in the conference. Virginia Tech's a shaky team, so it could happen here, but ehhhh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#22 Purdue (5-1) @ Michigan (4-2)
Ooh, intriguing. Both teams are shaky, as Purdue's still fairly unproven and got outgained by Notre Dame, while Michigan was nowhere near as good as they should've been against Eastern Michigan. Except for Mike Hart, of course. Oh, Michigan's at home, if Notre Dame could do it (at least statistically), then why the hell not.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Eastern Michigan (2-4) @ Ohio (2-4)
MAC PARITY! I'd probably be better off flipping a coin, but Ohio's played better to date and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 2
Georgia Tech (3-3) @ Miami (4-2)
Two very similar teams - spotty offenses that show signs of life intermittently, and very good defenses that occasionally lapse. I liked Miami's defense more in the preseason, and the Canes offense has had the better days when they're on, so I'll cautiously go with the U at home.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-5) @ Northwestern (3-3)
Minnesota is very much unable to stop the pass. Northwestern QB CJ Bacher is coming off of a school-record 520 passing yards against Michigan State. Uh oh.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 3
Rutgers (3-2) @ Syracuse (1-5)
Syracuse isn't any good.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
12:05 PM
#13 Illinois (5-1) @ Iowa (2-4)
Iowa seems pretty much dead in the water - Penn State has a good defense, but under 200 yards? C'mon. This could be pretty close, and Iowa could pull things off at home - they shouldn't be THIS bad, so maybe they'll snap back to the mean. Or, of course, Iowa could reach bowl eligibility via their winnable final four games instead of here. But anyway, much like Penn State did, Illinois should be able to run their way to victory here, and a second straight good performance by Juice Williams would legitimize the Illini as a very dangerous team.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
#12 Texas (4-2) @ Iowa State (1-5)
ISU's at least looked more competitive in their recent losses than a team that lost to I-AA Northern Iowa should. As for Texas...ehhhh. Even though Iowa State's pretty much lived up to that 1-5 record (except for an offense explosion mostly due to Nebraska's horrible defense), they do have a very good QB/WR duo in Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe that could exploit that suspect Texas secondary. Still, the odds are against three Longhorn losses in a row.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 3
Baylor (3-3) @ #25 Kansas (5-0)
I am unsure if this is a step up from the fairly weak teams Kansas kicked the crap out of to start the year.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 4
Alabama (4-2) @ Mississippi (2-4)
Bama didn't quite rebound against Houston like you'd hope after their subpar effort against FSU, but I'll still give the Tide the benefit of the doubt. Ole Miss is spotty, and even their occasional good days haven't led to much success.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 2
Oklahoma State (3-3) @ Nebraska (4-2)
Mirror match! Two good but disappointing offenses carrying very bad defenses. OK State may have the edge on both sides of the ball, but this could go either way.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Toledo (2-4) @ Buffalo (2-4)
Toledo looked good at the beginning of the year, but lately, ehhhh. Buffalo's looking more and more like a legit I-A team, and with them at home, why not. MAC parity warning applies, though.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Western Kentucky @ Ball State (3-3)
WKU's been good enough to beat some Sun Belt teams, but Ball State probably has the best offense in the MAC. They're a bit inconsistent, so there could be a loss here, but I doubt it.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 3
New Mexico (3-2) @ Wyoming (4-1)
Wyoming's legitimately good, and looks like the best team in the conference. Still, with the MWC parity, it's not like they're too far ahead of the pack. The Cowboys are at home, so I'll give them the edge, but anyone in this conference can beat anyone else, pretty much.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
Tennessee (3-2) @ Mississippi State (4-2)
As Tennessee-Georgia showed, the Vols are more than capable of shutting down a run-first team, which is very much what Mississippi State is. If MSU finds a way to take advantage of a young Vols secondary, they could do some things, but with their QBs, I doubt it.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 3
3:00 PM
Bowling Green (3-2) @ Miami of Ohio (3-3)
BGSU seems to be among the legit top tier of the MAC, while Miami of Ohio seems like one of the middle tier that's gotten some breaks. But still, MAC parity, etc., etc.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (2-3) @ Utah (3-3)
Utah seems to have gotten things together. Maybe. It's hard to tell when you're facing the Louisville defense. SDSU still seems to be the weak sister of the league, though admittedly in a parity-filled conference, that doesn't mean too much.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (6-0) @ Kentucky (5-1)
A win here probably means LSU won't be threatened until their regular season-ending game against Arkansas; UK and the Hogs have the offensive weapons that are necessary to take down the Tigers. As Virginia Tech showed, a defense-oriented team has little chance against the #1 team in the country - LSU will just hold their opponent to single digits, and the Tigers offense is good enough to at least get two touchdowns or so. Instead, an offense-oriented team like Kentucky, as much as I rag on them, will probably get 2 or 3 scores of their own, and they can hope the LSU offense has a subpar day (like against Tulane) and win to the tune of, say, 23-20 or something. That said, just the opposite could happen - Andre' Woodson already experienced a Kyle Orton-esque fall from grace, and this could be another visit from The Ghosts Of Heisman Chokers Past, as LSU's thoroughly capable of giving the Wildcats a beatdown much like Oklahoma did to Seneca Wallace-led Iowa State a few years back. It'll probably be surprisingly (at least judging by my writings on the two teams) close, but I'm still not picking against LSU.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Washington State (2-4) @ #6 Oregon (4-1)
An upset's somewhat possible, I suppose, but Wazzou's pretty clearly no higher than 9th in the conference. That's not to say they're not talented, since they could win in a shootout, which lends itself well to the Pac 10, but the Oregon defense is that much more effective.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 4
Arizona (2-4) @ #7 USC (4-1)
Arizona regressed horribly last week, so I have no confidence in their spread offense this season. And USC has both a healthy quarterback and a whole bunch of motivation. This could get real ugly.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
#8 South Carolina (5-1) @ North Carolina (2-4)
UNC had the impressive and well-deserved upset against Miami last week, but they've still been pretty awful as a whole on the year. The UNC of 2008 projects to be more the level of team that can beat a South Carolina 2007.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
#14 Wisconsin (5-1) @ #23 Penn State (4-2)
Could go either way. Wisconsin's weakness is the run, and Penn State can do plenty of that. Penn State's weakness is their quarterback, and Wisconsin does in fact field a defense. Part of me wants to pick PSU since they're at home, but it's essentially a pick 'em, and c'mon, Anthony Morelli.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
#15 Boston College (6-0) @ Notre Dame (1-5)
BC's amazingly vulnerable, but once again, the schedule won't let that be proven. ND had been improving to a respectable level, but imploded last week while beating UCLA via smoke and mirrors. If they'd kept getting better, I'd give the Irish a chance, but this could turn into an easy win that somehow vindicates the perception of BC.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
#18 Texas A&M (5-1) @ Texas Tech (5-1)
Could degenerate into a fun little shootout. The TTU passing game lends itself much better to that than TAMU's mostly-running style, and that A&M defense? Ehhhh. For a team I have ranked, I feel like I pick against the Aggies a lot.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
Army (3-3) @ Central Michigan (3-3)
Man, Army's somehow 3-3. And doesn't really deserve to be. CMU started off horribly, but seems to be off the schneid.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
Connecticut (5-0) @ Virginia (5-1)
Oh jeez. UConn's been mostly a paper tiger, although they did kick the absolute shit out of Akron. Virginia's also a bit overrated, since while they seem to have gotten their shit together, they've mostly just been one of the glut of mediocre ACC teams and happened to get some breaks. Plus playing Duke and UNC helps. I'll go with who has frankly been the more impressive team, and my personal bias doesn't hurt.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Rice (1-4) @ Houston (2-3)
Rice's "get seven turnovers" strategy for victory doesn't lend itself to duplication.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Western Michigan (2-4) @ Northern Illinois (1-5)
WMU is disappointing. NIU is awful.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Fresno State (3-2) @ Idaho (1-5)
Idaho vs. Utah State is shaping up to be quite a battle to see who is the worst team in the WAC. This game will do little to quell the anticipation.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
TCU (3-3) @ Stanford (2-3)
As much as I'd like to, no. It was a hell of an upset, but the USC-Stanford stats show just how big a disparity there is between Stanford and, well, anyone that's any good, even if TCU's inclusion in that category has been somewhat shaky recently.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
Air Force (4-2) @ Colorado State (0-5)
They have a chance, but I've given up on Colorado State.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
#20 Georgia (4-2) @ Vanderbilt (3-2)
UGA's vulnerable, as Tennessee obviously showed, but Vandy hasn't shown much so far this season. An upset's possible, but the Commodores seem like just the elixir that the Bulldogs need for what ails 'em.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Temple (1-5) @ Akron (3-3)
More or less a pick 'em. Temple's a competitive mid-major team, and Akron's been somewhat unconvincing as an upper-tier MAC team. MAC parity warning applies, I'll go with the home team.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#10 Missouri (5-0) @ #3 Oklahoma (5-1)
Missouri could do it, but I'll believe it when I see it. Missouri could be able to put up more than enough points, but the Tigers defense is untested enough where the same could probably be said of Oklahoma. If this turns into a defensive struggle, OU obviously has the edge, and in a shootout, the Sooners have the horses to compete with the Tigers as well.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
Oregon State (3-3) @ #9 California (5-0)
Oregon State's improved, but with star WR Sammie Stroughter out for the year, I don't give them a chance. Cal's a double-edged sword - that lack of pass defense makes them prone to be beaten in a shootout, but they have the receiving corps to probably be the best shootout-based team in the country. And here, that's no exception.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3
Louisville (3-3) @ #19 Cincinnati (6-0)
Cincinnati's a pretty good team, and Louisville's a roulette wheel. Louisville should be able to score theirs, and Brian Brohm should continue his string of excellent games, but outside of the NC State game, there's nothing to suggest the Cardinals D won't be hemorrhaging points. If the D even somewhat shows up, Louisville could win a shootout, but I wouldn't bet on it.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-5) @ Arkansas State (2-3)
ASU's shown signs of life against Texas. LA-Laf's shown signs of life against NORTH Texas. Advantage to...
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
Indiana (5-1) @ Michigan State (4-2)
MSU's defense has looked pretty bad, and the Spartans' stock has decreased quite precipitously the last two weeks. The MSU secondary was carved up by Northwestern's CJ Bacher and Wisconsin's Tyler Donovan, and the Hoosiers' Kellen Lewis is probably better than both of them.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
New Mexico State (3-3) @ Louisiana Tech (0-4)
NMSU's been one of the greater disappointments of the year for me, and Boise absolutely annihilated them. Louisiana Tech hasn't been as outstandingly awful as I expected, but the Bulldogs remain pretty bad. NMSU's the better team, but definitely not by a safe margin.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Monroe (1-4) @ North Texas (0-5)
Who knows in a Sun Belt game, but ULM's offense has seemed on track in conference games. As for North Texas, well, they're at home. And green is a nice color.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Marshall (0-5) @ Tulsa (3-2)
Marshall's not awful, just completely uninspiring. Tulsa's shiny new offense seems to be taking well, so they may actually make the Herd look awful here.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
Tulane (1-4) @ UAB (1-4)
Tulane's not half-bad. Well, actually, they are half-bad. Instead of the expected all-bad. UAB's, like, three-fourths-bad. Hard hitting analysis.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
SMU (1-4) @ Southern Miss (2-3)
Southern Miss has been slightly unlucky, but they're not quite the level of team either expected from this season or as their usualy reputation would dictate. Still, that should be enough at home against the Mustangs, which have been another disappointment.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
Auburn (4-2) @ Arkansas (3-2)
Still not sold on Brandon Cox turning the corner just yet. Could go either way, but in McFadden (and Jones) I trust and all that.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (1-5) @ Memphis (2-3)
An interesting one - MTSU's shown a pretty good offense, while Memphis has been fine, but nothing great. I'll hold to my preseason thoughts, and give the pick 'em to the home team.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
9:05 PM
East Carolina (3-3) @ UTEP (4-2)
Ahhhh parity-filled faceless mid-major teams
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 1
9:15 PM
Colorado (4-2) @ Kansas State (3-2)
Oh who knows. Colorado's had the dismal game against Arizona State, so that's probably the difference in my mind. Both are slightly above-average teams that are only getting better, but the Buffaloes seem to have slightly more implosion potential.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1
9:30 PM
BYU (3-2) @ UNLV (2-4)
Again, the MWC is one of the many parity-filled conferences, so either team can win, but BYU's looked much better. That offense is high-powered, and UNLV pretty much got the crap kicked out of them by Utah.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
10:15 PM
Washington (2-3) @ #16 Arizona State (6-0)
ASU's far from invincible, and Washington's far from a pushover. Still, in recent years, the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home, and Washington's still at the level of squad where ASU'll win comfortably, although probably not via blowout.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Nevada (2-3) @ #21 Boise State (4-1)
After Boise's utter manhandling of NMSU last Sunday, there is absolutely no way I am picking against the Broncos.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
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