Monday, October 08, 2007

Week 6 Recap

#1 LSU 28, #11 Florida 24
An emotional rollercoaster. When Florida looked like it might roll early, I was fairly angry. Someone gets the big upset over the dominant #1 team and it's THESE guys? Again? And I have to put up with at least a year and a half more of Tim Tebow, and the announcers fellating him? I mean, come on Florida. Let someone else win games, jeez. But it soon became a back and forth dramatic battle between good and evil, won mostly thanks to two late Gator turnovers and Les Miles's propensity for going for it on fourth down. LSU remains the best team in the nation easily, especially since them and Ohio State seem to be the two teams left standing. As for Florida, as odd as this may seem with a loss, I'll bump their stock up. I knew they were talented, but had questions about such a young team, and watching pretty much the entire game live (I flipped in places for USC-Stanford and pieces of SNL), wow, that offense is pretty good. They retroactively solidified themselves as a contender for a national title they now almost definitely cannot win.
LSU: STOCK NEUTRAL
Florida: STOCK UP

Stanford 24, #2 USC 23
WASH YOUR HANDS. I saw it was 16-7 at the half, and figured USC would pull away late. I refreshed the window of boxscores quite a bit later, and saw Stanford was only down by 6 late. So I turned to Versus shortly before John David Booty threw his third pick of the night, and I realized, oh my God, Stanford could actually do this. And, well, do it they did. Jim Harbaugh is awesome. Now, looking at the game objectively, USC pretty much crushed them statistically, outgaining the Cardinal 459-235. Despite his heroics on the final drive, Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard had an awful night, going only 11 for 30 for 149 yards and a 1/1 ratio. Really, it was the turnovers that put this within reach for Stanford, and all four giveaways by USC were interceptions by John David Booty. I really don't know what this means for USC - they should still probably beat one of Cal and Oregon, but Booty throwing 4 picks isn't something than can be written off somewhat to dumb luck and used as a motivator, such as if Stanford had recovered 4 out of 4 fumbles or something. Booty's been unspectacular, but was now somewhat of a detriment despite his good peripherals (60% completion pct., 364 yards) - he'll need to cut down on his mistakes if USC will make it to the Rose Bowl, or yes, even the National Championship. Still, if this motivates him to do just that, this is a team capable of not only beating Oregon and Cal, but crushing them, which barring an undefeated season by both LSU and Ohio State or maybe even USF, would probably be enough to get them into one of the top two slots. As for Stanford, this doesn't mean they're ready to get into a bowl this year; in fact, they're far from it. This just means recruiting's probably gonna get a lot better a lot sooner, moreso than anything else.
USC: STOCK DOWN
Stanford: STOCK NEUTRAL

#3 Ohio State 23, #20 Purdue 7
A convincing win, but not a complete blowout. The Buckeye defense did completely shut down Purdue's running game, however, holding the Boilermakers to only 4 yards on the ground. Purdue is what they are (that probably violated some sort of grammatical rule) - a pretty good team, but not in the Buckeyes' league. OSU QB Todd Boeckman's performance may be somewhat cause for concern - he completed 59% and had 200 yards, but only 2 touchdowns versus 3 interceptions. Still, that Buckeyes defense is good enough to allow that. They're not quite LSU, but they're very good.
Ohio State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Purdue: STOCK NEUTRAL

#5 West Virginia 55, Syracuse 14
As one-sided as the score. Steve Slaton only having 69 yards on 15 carries is somewhat odd, but Pat White's performance (12/15, 148, TD passing, 14 rushes for 89 and a TD) more than made up for it.
West Virginia: STOCK NEUTRAL
Syracuse: STOCK NEUTRAL

Tennessee 35, #6 Georgia 14
Ugh. Matt Stafford had a 2/1 ratio, but completed less than 50% of his passes, and he wasn't helped out by the UGA running game at all. Meanwhile, Tennessee had an absolute field day on offense, with Erik Ainge completing 77% for 165 yards, and Vols halfback Arian Foster running for 98 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tennessee put themselves back up into the Auburn-level slightly above average tier, rather than going nowhere with Arkansas. As for UGA, this is a confidence-depleting performance - I had them a bit high due to attrition, and I liked their offense/defense balance, and in this game they showed neither. Bleh.
Tennnessee: STOCK UP
Georgia: STOCK DOWN

#7 South Carolina 38, Kentucky 23
I thought going into the game that Andre' Woodson would get Seneca Wallaced, but I seem to have picked the wrong fallen Heisman frontrunner, as Woodson instead gave away two critical fumbles for touchdowns, much more reminiscent of Kyle Orton. Kentucky remains what they are - a team with a dangerous offense that also allows the other team to have a dangerous offense, and this was far from the convincing win by SC that I expected. The game was extraordinarily even except for Kentucky losing the turnover battle 4-1. Kentucky's dangerous if not all that great, SC's very good but definitely not far ahead enough to not possibly get knocked off.
South Carolina: STOCK NEUTRAL
Kentucky: STOCK NEUTRAL

#21 Illinois 31, #8 Wisconsin 26
Illinois's best performance to date, as Rashard Mendenhall exploited the suspect Badgers run D for 160 and 2 scores, while Juice Williams actually, yes, had a completion percentage over 50%. Not only that, it was actually 63.2 percent! Over 60!. Crazy. Still, while the run D is a neon sign of a concern, it's not all bad news for Wisconsin - Tyler Donovan was able to throw for 392 yards, even if it was somewhat a case of quantity over quality, as he only completed 55% for a 2/2 ratio. Illinois gets a slight bump up thanks to Juice's performance, but besides that, these teams still are what they were going in - top-25 worthy, but not top-tier.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Wisconsin: STOCK NEUTRAL

#9 Oklahoma 28, #13 Texas 21
Sam Bradford rebounded from his awful effort against Colorado, going 21-of-32 for 244 and 3 scores against what remains a shaky Texas secondary. Colt McCoy actually rebounded as well, having as good a night as Bradford, completing 73% en route to 324 yards and a 2/1 ratio. Really, this was a fairly even game, as the score suggests, with Texas slightly worse - both by a hair in terms of yardage, and the Longhorns had 2 turnovers while forcing none. OU rebounded as a whole to get themselves back into that top tier, even if they don't seem quite as scary as pre-Colorado; as for Texas, they remain a very talented but thoroughly uninspiring team.
Oklahoma: STOCK UP
Texas: STOCK NEUTRAL

#10 South Florida 35, Florida Atlantic 23
Hey, FAU's a good team people, and they obviously had a lot to play for. Still, as much as I like FAU, giving up 411 yards to them isn't something a top ten, and now a top five team, should be doing. Still, the Bulls were able to make up for it with an insane day on the ground - starting back Benjamin Williams had 186 and 4 touchdowns, while QB Matt Grothe nearly matched his 122 passing yards with 120 rushing yards. USF gets a slight nudge down because of that defensive performance, but hey, they're still pretty good.
South Florida: STOCK DOWN
Florida Atlantic: STOCK NEUTRAL

#14 Missouri 41, Nebraska 6
Okay, things that can be learned from this. The Missouri defense is decent, but not great, as Nebraska had a thoroughly mediocre day. On the other side of the ball, who knows, because Nebraska's defense gave up 606 yards to officially move from "awful" to "Louisville." Thus, we throw up our arms thanks to their ineptitude taking precedence over everything else, and we move on.
Missouri: STOCK NEUTRAL
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN

#15 Arizona State 23, Washington State 20
A slight disaster for the Sun Devils. RB Ryan Torain was fine, and QB Rudy Carpenter had a completion percentage over 70%, if only a 2/2 ratio. Still, ASU gave up 369 yards through the air to Wazzou QB Alex Brink, and probably should've lost this one based on the yardage deficit. This suggests ASU was kind of inflated by all the home games early, and are closer to the glut than to the Cals and Oregons of the Pac 10.
Arizona State: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK NEUTRAL

North Carolina 33, #16 Miami 27
Lost with the USC/Stanford game is that, hey, this happened too. Kyle Wright's 4 picks doomed Miami here, but that's not an excuse. Miami didn't do the one thing I thought they could, stop the run, as UNC had 183 on the ground. And they couldn't stop the pass either, as unimpressive Heels QB T.J. Yates actually impressed, completing 65% of his passes for 218 yards. Obviously, UNC's ready to win games now, whether they actually will or won't going forward, and while Miami's offense was fine yardage-wise, it goes back to being a work in progress.
North Carolina: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN

#17 Boston College 55, Bowling Green 24
Probably BC's most impressive win of the year, though they did pull a Cincinnati Special by having it inflated thanks to turnovers. The yardage was about even, but BGSU QB Tyler Sheehan threw 5 interceptions, two of which were returned for scores. BC's Matt Ryan had a 75%, 312 yard, 4 TD day more befitting to his reputation than some recent games, but MAC teams aren't exactly known for their defense. I'll give BC a slight nudge up, but they are still absolutely nothing exciting.
Boston College: STOCK UP
Bowling Green: STOCK NEUTRAL

#18 Texas A&M 24, Oklahoma State 23
A fairly interesting game with nothing interesting about it. A&M seems to be slightly more balanced than they've been this year, as Stephen McGee had a decent day throwing while the Aggies were still effective on the ground. OK State's offense looks to have recovered from their early-season doldrums, even if the team doesn't look all that great. Yawn.
Texas A&M: STOCK NEUTRAL
Oklahoma State: STOCK UP

#19 Virginia Tech 41, Clemson 23
What a weird game. This was a blowout early, and VT's scoring is inflated thanks to 2 touchdowns from the return game. VT QB Tyrod Taylor was a not very effective one man offense, throwing for only 65 yards but running for 118. Clemson's offense racked up yardage, but not thanks to their excellent RB duo of James Davis (9 yards) and C.J. Spiller (3 yards), but thanks to QB Cullen Harper attempting an insane 66 passes. Virginia Tech's still a decent team that just happens to be in the right conference to be considered good, and as for Clemson, the ship looks to be sinking. Although with Clemson, that could mean they win their next 6. God, I hate the ACC.
Virginia Tech: STOCK NEUTRAL
Clemson: STOCK DOWN

#22 Penn State 27, Iowa 7
Anthony Morelli remains pretty bad, as he completed 58% for 233 yards, but still had 2 interceptions versus 1 touchdown. Luckily, he was bailed out by two things, in Rodney Kinlaw's 168 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, and that Iowa's offense is a sinking ship that only gained 194 yards.
Penn State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Iowa: STOCK DOWN

#23 Cincinnati 28, Rutgers 23
I seem to be saying this a lot with games this week, but this was yet another pretty even game that was decided by turnovers, in this case Rutgers QB Mike Teel's 3 interceptions. Cincinnati, benefitting from turnovers? Who heard of such a thing.
Cincinnati: STOCK NEUTRAL
Rutgers: STOCK NEUTRAL

#24 Florida State 27, NC State 10
NCSU back Jamelle Eugene had 101 yards. That's good news. Past that, QB Dan Evans had 3 interceptions, as everyone starting at that position for the Wolfpack seems to. FSU was decent but unspectacular and remains a team whose TV games I'm thankful I don't get.
Florida State: STOCK NEUTRAL
NC State: STOCK NEUTRAL

#25 Hawaii 52, Utah State 37
That 37 is a damning indictment of Hawaii's defense. Backup Tyler Graunke actually had a better game than Brennan, somehow going only 9 for 11, but getting 246 yards and a 3/1 ratio off of that. Brennan went 19 for 25 for 219 yards and a score. Yep.
Hawaii: STOCK NEUTRAL
Utah State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Akron 39, Western Michigan 38
Well, this is about the best ending ever. WMU is up 38-31 and kneeling out the clock deep in their own territory. With :15 left on fourth down, they decide to take the safety, making it 38-33. They do the free kick, Akron runs it back for the touchdown, no time left, Zips win. Wow.
Akron: STOCK NEUTRAL
Western Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL

Oregon State 31, Arizona 16
Arizona QB Willie Tuitama: 18/38, 222, 3 INT. That new offense: Still a work in progress.
Oregon State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Arizona: STOCK DOWN

Army 20, Tulane 17 (OT)
Tulane's Matt Forte but up another great line, if not quite the one he had against...I-AA that I forget. 32 carries, 202 yards, 2 TD. Yep.
Army: STOCK NEUTRAL
Tulane: STOCK NEUTRAL

Auburn 35, Vanderbilt 7
Brandon Cox completed 82.4% of his passes, which confuses and frightens me. Not sold yet, though. Vandy's been disappointing in SEC play thus far.
Auburn: STOCK NEUTRAL
Vanderbilt: STOCK DOWN

Central Michigan 58, Ball State 38
CMU's offense put up the type of performance that Ball State's had against Nebraska. I officially have no idea what to make of the MAC.
Central Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Ball State: STOCK DOWN

Boise State 58, New Mexico State 0
Hooooly shit. This was every bit the massacre as that score suggests. NMSU's usually high-octane passing offense was held to only 108 yards, and the Aggies were held to negative 19 rushing. And Boise gained 604 yards just to make sure. Just...wow.
Boise State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK DOWN

San Diego State 24, Colorado State 20
Oh dammit CSU. The Rams could still probably win some games in that wide-open Mountain West, but I've lost faith.
San Diego State: STOCK NEUTRAL
Colorado State: STOCK DOWN

Michigan 33, Eastern Michigan 22
Chad Henne threw two picks, but, news flash, this Mike Hart fellow is very good. 22 carries, 215 yards, 3 TD. This was still an uninspiring game for Michigan, though. I mean, come on, it's Eastern.
Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL
Eastern Michigan: STOCK NEUTRAL

Texas Tech 42, Iowa State 17
Not much to say about the game, just that Tech QB Graham Harrell is quietly having the season Colt Brennan was expected to:

vs. SMU: 44/59 (74.6%), 419 yards, 4 TD
vs. UTEP: 48/64 (75%), 484 yards, 4/1 TD/INT
vs. Rice: 28/37 (75.7%), 414 yards, 6/1 TD/INT
vs. Oklahoma State: 46/67 (68.7%), 646 yards, 5 TD
vs. Northwestern State: 26/40 (65%), 338 yards, 5 TD
vs. Iowa State: 36/43 (83.7%), 425 yards, 4/1 TD/INT

He's pretty good.
Texas Tech: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Kansas 30, Kansas State 24
Well, Kansas is legit, at least to an extent, as they gained 437 yards here. Josh Freeman still exploited the defense in between interceptions, and you'd like to see more from the KU running game, but hey, good for them.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK NEUTRAL

Utah 44, Louisville 35
Brian Brohm's still excellent, but THAT DEFENSE IS SO BAD.
Utah: STOCK NEUTRAL
Louisville: STOCK DOWN

Northwestern 48, Michigan State 41 (OT)
NW QB CJ Bacher's line: 38/48 (79.2%), 520 yards, 5 TD. This was enough of a back and forth shootout that the result was essentially a wash, but MSU definitely has some concerns on defense.
Northwestern: STOCK UP
Michigan State: STOCK DOWN

Notre Dame 20, UCLA 6
Notre Dame's offense imploded on itself and gained only 140 yards, yet the Irish still won handily, partially thanks to something called McLeod Bethel-Thompson throwing four picks for UCLA. Well done, Bruins. Well done.
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
UCLA: STOCK DOWN

Rice 31, Southern Miss 29
And it only took seven turnovers.
Rice: STOCK NEUTRAL
Southern Miss: STOCK DOWN

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