#8 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #9 Kansas (11-1)
Virginia Tech's had an interesting little year. They remained highly ranked for most of the year's start, despite getting absolutely annihilated by LSU and not looking all that impressive in quite a few of their wins. Then they just had enough, finishing the regular season by dominating Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia (although they didn't look overly great in the ACC title game against BC). As for Kansas, the conventional wisdom is pretty much spot on - the offense is excellent, the defense is pretty good, and they're still somewhat of an unknown because of a weak schedule. Wait, an elite opportunistic defense and an inconsistent offense facing a team that looks excellent on paper but has lots of questions about their level of competition? Thank God I'm making this pick after watching the Sugar Bowl.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Showing posts with label ACC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ACC. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
BOWLNANZA 2008: New Year's Day
I'll have my schedule down next year, I swear.
OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
Monday, December 31, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: New Year's Eve
Quick hits, since it's been a long weekend.
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
Friday, December 28, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Meineke Car Care Bowl
Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
WELCOME TO YOUR FUTURE, UCONN. This year's team that has a good season despite all statistical evidence otherwise meets last year's. UConn's not horrible or anything - they're much better than Syracuse - but in the Big East, they're probably the 6th best team in the conference max, maaaaaybe 5th, and I can't definitively put them ahead of everyone except the aforementioned Cuse. As for Wake, they're actually pretty nondescript - every game was close statistically or scorewise, save being completely destroyed by Clemson - they could always win, they could always lose. Statistically, despite being a lower-tier Big East team, UConn actually holds the edge in every yardage category except for run defense, where Wake is an excellent team - this is both a condemnation of the ACC and something that makes the game interesting, since Tyler Lorenzen is very much not a quarterback that can win a game by himself. I went into this thinking I'd pick Wake, thanks to UConn having such a fluke year and the homefield advantage (the game's in Charlotte), but Wake's no great shakes either and UConn actually holds most of the statistical edges. Based on both team's seasons, it'll almost assuredly be a close game, but I'll go with the statistically better team, and hey, a slight bit of bias doesn't hurt.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
WELCOME TO YOUR FUTURE, UCONN. This year's team that has a good season despite all statistical evidence otherwise meets last year's. UConn's not horrible or anything - they're much better than Syracuse - but in the Big East, they're probably the 6th best team in the conference max, maaaaaybe 5th, and I can't definitively put them ahead of everyone except the aforementioned Cuse. As for Wake, they're actually pretty nondescript - every game was close statistically or scorewise, save being completely destroyed by Clemson - they could always win, they could always lose. Statistically, despite being a lower-tier Big East team, UConn actually holds the edge in every yardage category except for run defense, where Wake is an excellent team - this is both a condemnation of the ACC and something that makes the game interesting, since Tyler Lorenzen is very much not a quarterback that can win a game by himself. I went into this thinking I'd pick Wake, thanks to UConn having such a fluke year and the homefield advantage (the game's in Charlotte), but Wake's no great shakes either and UConn actually holds most of the statistical edges. Based on both team's seasons, it'll almost assuredly be a close game, but I'll go with the statistically better team, and hey, a slight bit of bias doesn't hurt.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Thursday, December 27, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Emerald Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
I'm sure there's intrigue here. Oregon State has the #2 rush defense in the country, and Maryland has some pretty good running backs. There's some, I suppose. This really is a horribly boring game - Maryland has a slight edge in pass defense, but other than that, OSU has the slight edge in everything else, and neither team is all that terribly impressive at anything, except for that aforementioned #2 rush defense. And it's not like either of these teams played all that out of whack compared to its record. This may not be that bad of a game, actually - they're capable of playing pretty close, hopefully in a game of the high-scoring variety, but it's dreadfully devoid of any drama or storyline. Oregon State's the slightly better team, so I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
I'm sure there's intrigue here. Oregon State has the #2 rush defense in the country, and Maryland has some pretty good running backs. There's some, I suppose. This really is a horribly boring game - Maryland has a slight edge in pass defense, but other than that, OSU has the slight edge in everything else, and neither team is all that terribly impressive at anything, except for that aforementioned #2 rush defense. And it's not like either of these teams played all that out of whack compared to its record. This may not be that bad of a game, actually - they're capable of playing pretty close, hopefully in a game of the high-scoring variety, but it's dreadfully devoid of any drama or storyline. Oregon State's the slightly better team, so I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Champs Sports Bowl
#23 Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
What looks like a mismatch may in fact be a neat little game. As I've said many times, BC was their usual 8 or so win-level team, but the ACC was bad enough this year that that got them 10 wins. And MSU's a better team than their record - all of their losses were by a touchdown or less (although they were EXTREMELY lucky to keep it that close against Ohio State), and 2 of them were in overtime. And there are some neat variables that have yet to play themselves out - Michigan State's two-headed running back monster, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, will be facing the nation's #1 run defense, but a vulnerable BC secondary is there for the Spartans to take advantage of - but will they? And that's really the main question, since Matt Ryan should be able to do well against a Michigan State secondary that, while solid, should be able to slow, not stop him. Still, I'll call for a Spartans upset - MSU's due to win a close game, aren't they?, plus they're the team that probably wants to be here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
What looks like a mismatch may in fact be a neat little game. As I've said many times, BC was their usual 8 or so win-level team, but the ACC was bad enough this year that that got them 10 wins. And MSU's a better team than their record - all of their losses were by a touchdown or less (although they were EXTREMELY lucky to keep it that close against Ohio State), and 2 of them were in overtime. And there are some neat variables that have yet to play themselves out - Michigan State's two-headed running back monster, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, will be facing the nation's #1 run defense, but a vulnerable BC secondary is there for the Spartans to take advantage of - but will they? And that's really the main question, since Matt Ryan should be able to do well against a Michigan State secondary that, while solid, should be able to slow, not stop him. Still, I'll call for a Spartans upset - MSU's due to win a close game, aren't they?, plus they're the team that probably wants to be here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Sunday, December 02, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Regular Season
#1 Ohio State (#2 LW)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)
Week 14 Recap
Pittsburgh 13, #1 West Virginia 9
Wow. The Pitt upset doesn't surprise me too much, since the Panthers were somewhat underrated, this is a rivalry game, and this is the 2007 football season. But still. Pitt winning a shootout I might've seen. Pitt slowing down the WVU offense a bit en route to putting up 28 or so points and ekeing out a win I definitely could've seen. But, Pat White injury or not, the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS being the team to not only stop the West Virginia offense, but hold it to only 183 yards? Inexplicable. Three turnovers, no Pat White, no excuse. This is a team that should always gain yardage by the bushel, and things weren't much better on the defensive side of things. Pitt QB Pat Bostick was awful, but that only serves to even MORESO ask why West Virginia wasn't able to contain LaSean McCoy - Pitt had no passing game, and West Virginia has had an excellent run defense all year. Again, Pitt was an underrated team, but with the way this game played out, this is nothing more than a season-, era-, and perhaps program-defining choke job.
Pittsburgh: STOCK STEADY
West Virginia: STOCK DOWN
#9 Oklahoma 38, #3 Missouri 17
Meh. Not as one-sided as the score would suggest, but Missouri just got nothing going. Oklahoma didn't bring their complete "A" game, but they did enough against a Missouri team that, again, didn't do much. Chase Daniel's 23/39, 219 yard, INT day was fine, but that's about all. And that's really the outline of the game - neither team brought their top game, Missouri was fine, OU was better than fine.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
#4 LSU 21, #25 Tennessee 14
Somewhat of a win/win game. LSU looked good - Jacob Hester ran for 120 yards, and the Tigers had 464 yards of total offense, plus they held Erik Ainge to 50% passing. And the Vols offense acquitted themselves well - while the Tigers D hasn't looked like the world-beating unit from the beginning of the year for quite some time, it's still very good, and Tennessee was able to move the ball. Really nothing that shouts out for any exceptional new insight.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee: STOCK STEADY
#5 USC 24, UCLA 7
A completely one-sided beatdown. UCLA tends to do that, so there's almost no point in trying to gain insight from this. UCLA is bad, USC might have been the best team in the nation the last couple of weeks.
USC: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
#6 Virginia Tech 30, #22 Boston College 16
Funnily enough, this was probably VT's worst game in recent weeks. Sean Glennon was efficient (18/27, 174, 3/1), but Tech wasn't able to get too much going on the ground. And while Matt Ryan had a pretty good completion rate and yardage, his 2 picks were killers. Everything was backwards day! So, yes - VT is rightfully the ACC champion (even if they may not be the national title-level team they're perceived as), and BC is rightfully pretty good, no more, no less.
Virginia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
#10 Arizona State 20, Arizona 17
It's a shame Arizona didn't catch a break this year, as they're an underrated team who deserved a bowl. This was a mostly pass-oriented game, as neither team got much going on the ground. ASU's not especially cooling off or especially overrated - the score's more of a result of, again, Arizona being underrated.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
#16 Hawaii 35, Washington 28
Colt Brennan had a vintage 2006 game - 42/50, 442, 5 TD - and his team needed it since Washington was very game. They just keep doing this, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK STEADY
Washington: STOCK UP
#20 BYU 48, San Diego State 27
SDSU's a fairly competitive team, and this was about the outclassing you'd expect. Pretty much nothing new in terms of insight to add - BYU's offense is very good, and the defense was fine if nothing too far in either direction.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
San Diego State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 44, Tulsa 25
Kevin Smith: 39 carries, 284 yards, 4 TD. And one of the quietest excellent seasons ever, as he's 19 yards away from the single-season yardage record. If he can make it through his senior season next year after all the carries he's had as a junior (another NCAA record), that'll be a fun ride. He's very good!
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Florida International 38, North Texas 19
THEY DID IT!
Florida International: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 38, Oregon 31 (2 OT)
Without Dennis Dixon, Oregon has now improved to completely mediocre.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK UP
Wow. The Pitt upset doesn't surprise me too much, since the Panthers were somewhat underrated, this is a rivalry game, and this is the 2007 football season. But still. Pitt winning a shootout I might've seen. Pitt slowing down the WVU offense a bit en route to putting up 28 or so points and ekeing out a win I definitely could've seen. But, Pat White injury or not, the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS being the team to not only stop the West Virginia offense, but hold it to only 183 yards? Inexplicable. Three turnovers, no Pat White, no excuse. This is a team that should always gain yardage by the bushel, and things weren't much better on the defensive side of things. Pitt QB Pat Bostick was awful, but that only serves to even MORESO ask why West Virginia wasn't able to contain LaSean McCoy - Pitt had no passing game, and West Virginia has had an excellent run defense all year. Again, Pitt was an underrated team, but with the way this game played out, this is nothing more than a season-, era-, and perhaps program-defining choke job.
Pittsburgh: STOCK STEADY
West Virginia: STOCK DOWN
#9 Oklahoma 38, #3 Missouri 17
Meh. Not as one-sided as the score would suggest, but Missouri just got nothing going. Oklahoma didn't bring their complete "A" game, but they did enough against a Missouri team that, again, didn't do much. Chase Daniel's 23/39, 219 yard, INT day was fine, but that's about all. And that's really the outline of the game - neither team brought their top game, Missouri was fine, OU was better than fine.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
#4 LSU 21, #25 Tennessee 14
Somewhat of a win/win game. LSU looked good - Jacob Hester ran for 120 yards, and the Tigers had 464 yards of total offense, plus they held Erik Ainge to 50% passing. And the Vols offense acquitted themselves well - while the Tigers D hasn't looked like the world-beating unit from the beginning of the year for quite some time, it's still very good, and Tennessee was able to move the ball. Really nothing that shouts out for any exceptional new insight.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee: STOCK STEADY
#5 USC 24, UCLA 7
A completely one-sided beatdown. UCLA tends to do that, so there's almost no point in trying to gain insight from this. UCLA is bad, USC might have been the best team in the nation the last couple of weeks.
USC: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
#6 Virginia Tech 30, #22 Boston College 16
Funnily enough, this was probably VT's worst game in recent weeks. Sean Glennon was efficient (18/27, 174, 3/1), but Tech wasn't able to get too much going on the ground. And while Matt Ryan had a pretty good completion rate and yardage, his 2 picks were killers. Everything was backwards day! So, yes - VT is rightfully the ACC champion (even if they may not be the national title-level team they're perceived as), and BC is rightfully pretty good, no more, no less.
Virginia Tech: STOCK DOWN
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
#10 Arizona State 20, Arizona 17
It's a shame Arizona didn't catch a break this year, as they're an underrated team who deserved a bowl. This was a mostly pass-oriented game, as neither team got much going on the ground. ASU's not especially cooling off or especially overrated - the score's more of a result of, again, Arizona being underrated.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
#16 Hawaii 35, Washington 28
Colt Brennan had a vintage 2006 game - 42/50, 442, 5 TD - and his team needed it since Washington was very game. They just keep doing this, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK STEADY
Washington: STOCK UP
#20 BYU 48, San Diego State 27
SDSU's a fairly competitive team, and this was about the outclassing you'd expect. Pretty much nothing new in terms of insight to add - BYU's offense is very good, and the defense was fine if nothing too far in either direction.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
San Diego State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 44, Tulsa 25
Kevin Smith: 39 carries, 284 yards, 4 TD. And one of the quietest excellent seasons ever, as he's 19 yards away from the single-season yardage record. If he can make it through his senior season next year after all the carries he's had as a junior (another NCAA record), that'll be a fun ride. He's very good!
Central Florida: STOCK UP
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Florida International 38, North Texas 19
THEY DID IT!
Florida International: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 38, Oregon 31 (2 OT)
Without Dennis Dixon, Oregon has now improved to completely mediocre.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK UP
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Week 14 Preview: Saturday
11:00 AM
MAC Championship
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Miami of Ohio (6-6)
MAC PARITY! HOORAY! This really could go either way - MAC teams are horribly hard to predict, but I'll actually go with the underdog here. Miami of Ohio's a better team than that 6-6 record, and CMU's both scuffling a little and not really all that great.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Army (3-8) vs. Navy (7-4)
Army's bad. Navy's not! Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but yeah, Navy's far superior.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
C-USA Championship
Central Florida (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Even. Very very even. I still have some uneasiness about Tulsa after hemorrhaging yardage against Rice, a horrible team with an offense that can rack up yardage. And UCF's Kevin Smith remains a beast on the ground, so I'll call for him to have a big day in what could be a very very fun pointfest.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
ACC Championship
#6 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #22 Boston College (10-2)
Virginia Tech's been living up to their reputation lately; after being unimpressive for most of the year, they've been excellent on defense and perfectly fine on offense. BC remains a pretty good team, and not much more or less - they have a shot, but VT almost beat them at a time when the Hokies were playing much worse.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (6-5) @ Troy (8-3)
For the Sun Belt title, and rightfully so - FAU's a solid team, which goes a long way in the Sun Belt, while Troy has been the class of the league. And that last clause is the key - Troy's the class of the league, and the Trojans are at home.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
SEC Championship
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #25 Tennessee (9-3)
Someone's getting exposed! LSU's defense has slipped enough where Erik Ainge could rack up some yards, so I guess the Vols could pull off a Kentucky-esque upset, but I'm pretty skeptical - LSU should be motivated, and Tennessee's fine and all, but they're not an upper tier SEC team.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
4:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (5-6) @ Nevada (5-6)
Louisiana Tech being close to bowl eligibility just confuses and frightens me. But, well, while Louisiana Tech's fine, Nevada? Very good. Somewhat unlucky. Should win pretty easily. Offense! Should be fun.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
UCLA (6-5) @ #5 USC (9-2)
Yeah, they're not letting it happen again this year. So, I wonder who the new UCLA coach will be.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (7-4) @ Oregon (8-3)
Oregon might be the worst team in I-A until evidence to the contrary. I mean, after their game against UCLA, just wow.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#20 Brigham Young (9-2) @ San Diego State (4-7)
Yawwwwwn. BYU's easily the class of the conference, the winner of the conference always goes undefeated, SDSU's not too good, moving on...
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
California (6-5) @ Stanford (3-8)
Rivalry game, anything possible, so on and so on. Cal's sliding a little bit, but this still seems like a mismatch, as Stanford's just so far removed for...even anything approaching mediocrity.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3
North Texas (2-9) @ Florida International (0-11)
And they are every bit 0-11.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
Pittsburgh (4-7) @ #1 West Virginia (10-1)
I want to. I really really want to. But WVU is a legitimately excellent team in a season mostly devoid of them, and they're not just backing into the title game by default or anything. That said, since this is 2007, an upset would absolutely not surprise me.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Big 12 Championship
#3 Missouri (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU's almost like Clemson - they look very good most of the time, but can just implode. And much like Clemson games, that makes this almost worthless to predict. Missouri's had some games go worse than others, but their defense has only been mediocre at the worst times, and that offense has always been excellent throughout the season. I'll trust in Chase Daniel.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-6) @ #10 Arizona State (9-2)
More even than you might think, honestly. I'll call for the rivalry game upset to finally get Arizona back into a bowl - that offense is improving, and ASU's actually somewhat due for a loss to a team a level below them.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
11:30 PM
Washington (4-8) @ #16 Hawaii (11-0)
I'm buying into Hawaii, even if Washington's running game can be dangerous. It's on the island, the numbers love the Warriors, why not.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
MAC Championship
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Miami of Ohio (6-6)
MAC PARITY! HOORAY! This really could go either way - MAC teams are horribly hard to predict, but I'll actually go with the underdog here. Miami of Ohio's a better team than that 6-6 record, and CMU's both scuffling a little and not really all that great.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Army (3-8) vs. Navy (7-4)
Army's bad. Navy's not! Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but yeah, Navy's far superior.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
C-USA Championship
Central Florida (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Even. Very very even. I still have some uneasiness about Tulsa after hemorrhaging yardage against Rice, a horrible team with an offense that can rack up yardage. And UCF's Kevin Smith remains a beast on the ground, so I'll call for him to have a big day in what could be a very very fun pointfest.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
ACC Championship
#6 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #22 Boston College (10-2)
Virginia Tech's been living up to their reputation lately; after being unimpressive for most of the year, they've been excellent on defense and perfectly fine on offense. BC remains a pretty good team, and not much more or less - they have a shot, but VT almost beat them at a time when the Hokies were playing much worse.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (6-5) @ Troy (8-3)
For the Sun Belt title, and rightfully so - FAU's a solid team, which goes a long way in the Sun Belt, while Troy has been the class of the league. And that last clause is the key - Troy's the class of the league, and the Trojans are at home.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
SEC Championship
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #25 Tennessee (9-3)
Someone's getting exposed! LSU's defense has slipped enough where Erik Ainge could rack up some yards, so I guess the Vols could pull off a Kentucky-esque upset, but I'm pretty skeptical - LSU should be motivated, and Tennessee's fine and all, but they're not an upper tier SEC team.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
4:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (5-6) @ Nevada (5-6)
Louisiana Tech being close to bowl eligibility just confuses and frightens me. But, well, while Louisiana Tech's fine, Nevada? Very good. Somewhat unlucky. Should win pretty easily. Offense! Should be fun.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
UCLA (6-5) @ #5 USC (9-2)
Yeah, they're not letting it happen again this year. So, I wonder who the new UCLA coach will be.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (7-4) @ Oregon (8-3)
Oregon might be the worst team in I-A until evidence to the contrary. I mean, after their game against UCLA, just wow.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#20 Brigham Young (9-2) @ San Diego State (4-7)
Yawwwwwn. BYU's easily the class of the conference, the winner of the conference always goes undefeated, SDSU's not too good, moving on...
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
California (6-5) @ Stanford (3-8)
Rivalry game, anything possible, so on and so on. Cal's sliding a little bit, but this still seems like a mismatch, as Stanford's just so far removed for...even anything approaching mediocrity.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3
North Texas (2-9) @ Florida International (0-11)
And they are every bit 0-11.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
Pittsburgh (4-7) @ #1 West Virginia (10-1)
I want to. I really really want to. But WVU is a legitimately excellent team in a season mostly devoid of them, and they're not just backing into the title game by default or anything. That said, since this is 2007, an upset would absolutely not surprise me.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Big 12 Championship
#3 Missouri (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU's almost like Clemson - they look very good most of the time, but can just implode. And much like Clemson games, that makes this almost worthless to predict. Missouri's had some games go worse than others, but their defense has only been mediocre at the worst times, and that offense has always been excellent throughout the season. I'll trust in Chase Daniel.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-6) @ #10 Arizona State (9-2)
More even than you might think, honestly. I'll call for the rivalry game upset to finally get Arizona back into a bowl - that offense is improving, and ASU's actually somewhat due for a loss to a team a level below them.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
11:30 PM
Washington (4-8) @ #16 Hawaii (11-0)
I'm buying into Hawaii, even if Washington's running game can be dangerous. It's on the island, the numbers love the Warriors, why not.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 13
#1 West Virginia (#3 LW)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Missouri (#4)
#4 LSU (#1)
#5 USC (#9)
#6 Virginia Tech (#10)
#7 Georgia (#6)
#8 Florida (#7)
#9 Oklahoma (#11)
#10 Arizona State (#5)
#11 Kansas (#8)
#12 South Florida (#13)
#13 Wisconsin (#14)
#14 Illinois (#15)
#15 Virginia (#17)
#16 Hawaii (--)
#17 Texas (#16)
#18 Kentucky (#19)
#19 Michigan (#20)
#20 Brigham Young (#22)
#21 Clemson (#25)
#22 Boston College (#24)
#23 Arkansas (--)
#24 Penn State (#23)
#25 Tennessee (--)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Missouri (#4)
#4 LSU (#1)
#5 USC (#9)
#6 Virginia Tech (#10)
#7 Georgia (#6)
#8 Florida (#7)
#9 Oklahoma (#11)
#10 Arizona State (#5)
#11 Kansas (#8)
#12 South Florida (#13)
#13 Wisconsin (#14)
#14 Illinois (#15)
#15 Virginia (#17)
#16 Hawaii (--)
#17 Texas (#16)
#18 Kentucky (#19)
#19 Michigan (#20)
#20 Brigham Young (#22)
#21 Clemson (#25)
#22 Boston College (#24)
#23 Arkansas (--)
#24 Penn State (#23)
#25 Tennessee (--)
Monday, November 26, 2007
WEEK 13 ONE-MINUTE RECAP
Since I want to get this at least addressed for completion's sake, but my schedule is insane (4:30-4:40 AM wakeup, back home around 7:30 PM), so I'll just do my usual recap, but try to limit every game to ONE SENTENCE. What a fun exercise.
Arkansas 50, #1 LSU 48 (3 OT)
Since Arkansas apparently has legitimately fine QB play, this was unsurprising, since LSU was waiting to be toppled.
#3 West Virginia 66, Connecticut 21
I expected a big win, but to do it to this degree was an absolutely amazing statement.
#4 Missouri 36, #8 Kansas 28
Pretty good performance by Kansas, but their running game wasn't too great, and Chase Daniel was absolutely off his nuts (40/49, 361, 3 TD).
#9 USC 44, #5 Arizona State 24
USC didn't forget how to do the whole "dominance" thing, they were just taking a break.
#6 Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17
Two good running games, and neither QB was good at all, but Taylor Bennett was just much worse.
#7 Florida 45, Florida State 12
TEBOW.
#10 Virginia Tech 33, #17 Virginia 21
Very impressive, as VT was good on offense and absolutely shut down UVA on defense.
#11 Oklahoma 49, Oklahoma State 17
Allen Patrick and his 202 yards can more than replace DeMarco Murray, but I don't really trust Oklahoma all the time going forward.
UCLA 16, #12 Oregon 0
Holy fucking shit, the worst game ever.
#13 South Florida 48, Pittsburgh 37
USF was efficient in not getting much yardage, while Pitt racked up the passing yards and interceptions.
Texas A&M 38, #16 Texas 30
Texas A&M remembered they has a passing game, and Texas remembered they had a suspect passing defense.
Hawaii 39, #18 Boise State 27
The usual Hawaii story, even if this legitimizes them to the extent of "not San Jose State."
Tennessee 52, #19 Kentucky 50 (4 OT)
THROWING!
#21 Cincinnati 52, Syracuse 31
Cincinnati should probably be downgraded since Syracuse looked mediocre, not awful.
#22 BYU 17, Utah 10
Utah somehow kept this close despite being statistically annihilated.
#24 Boston College 28, Miami 14
Sigh, Miami.
#25 Clemson 23, South Carolina 21
Good Clemson showed up.
Arkansas 50, #1 LSU 48 (3 OT)
Since Arkansas apparently has legitimately fine QB play, this was unsurprising, since LSU was waiting to be toppled.
#3 West Virginia 66, Connecticut 21
I expected a big win, but to do it to this degree was an absolutely amazing statement.
#4 Missouri 36, #8 Kansas 28
Pretty good performance by Kansas, but their running game wasn't too great, and Chase Daniel was absolutely off his nuts (40/49, 361, 3 TD).
#9 USC 44, #5 Arizona State 24
USC didn't forget how to do the whole "dominance" thing, they were just taking a break.
#6 Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17
Two good running games, and neither QB was good at all, but Taylor Bennett was just much worse.
#7 Florida 45, Florida State 12
TEBOW.
#10 Virginia Tech 33, #17 Virginia 21
Very impressive, as VT was good on offense and absolutely shut down UVA on defense.
#11 Oklahoma 49, Oklahoma State 17
Allen Patrick and his 202 yards can more than replace DeMarco Murray, but I don't really trust Oklahoma all the time going forward.
UCLA 16, #12 Oregon 0
Holy fucking shit, the worst game ever.
#13 South Florida 48, Pittsburgh 37
USF was efficient in not getting much yardage, while Pitt racked up the passing yards and interceptions.
Texas A&M 38, #16 Texas 30
Texas A&M remembered they has a passing game, and Texas remembered they had a suspect passing defense.
Hawaii 39, #18 Boise State 27
The usual Hawaii story, even if this legitimizes them to the extent of "not San Jose State."
Tennessee 52, #19 Kentucky 50 (4 OT)
THROWING!
#21 Cincinnati 52, Syracuse 31
Cincinnati should probably be downgraded since Syracuse looked mediocre, not awful.
#22 BYU 17, Utah 10
Utah somehow kept this close despite being statistically annihilated.
#24 Boston College 28, Miami 14
Sigh, Miami.
#25 Clemson 23, South Carolina 21
Good Clemson showed up.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Week 13 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2) @ #17 Virginia (9-2)
Two teams that started off slowly, but have come on hard the last few weeks to make this an interesting, interesting game. In fact, both are coming off of complete shitkickings of Miami; Virginia's was more one-sided, but VT's holding of the Canes to negative 2 rushing yards was probably the most impressive individual statistic. I'll still give UVA the edge at home, though - they've been more impressive as a whole in recent weeks, and again, they're at home. Still, this should be an ugly defensive battle that either team can win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
#13 South Florida (8-3) @ Pittsburgh (4-6)
Pitt can be a dangerous team - they have an ever-improving frosh QB and two good running backs. Still, after what USF absolutely did to poor Louisville and Brian Brohm, this could be put away early and turn out ugly.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-6) @ #24 Boston College (9-2)
God, Miami's going to go 5-7, aren't they? As overrated as BC can be at moments, if they can do one thing, it's shut down the run. And as their -2 rushing yards against Virginia Tech showed, Miami's running game can be shut down. And whoever Miami starts at QB, well, they're not good enough to win this game alone. Miami definitely has the talent to pull this off, but it requires a performance living up to said talent, and they've shown nothing near that this year.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-6) @ NC State (5-6)
Oh, who knows. The ACC picture has somewhat unmuddled itself in the past few weeks, but these two teams remain question marks in the middle of the pack. They're not GOOD, they're not BAD, and NC State has a tendency to just throw games away via interception. And hell, why not call for that to continue.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Buffalo (4-7) @ Kent State (3-8)
Kent State's been horribly unlucky all year - can they just get one win? Please?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2
Tulane (4-7) @ East Carolina (6-5)
ECU's scuffling and hasn't really impressed me. Plus Tulane is MATT FORTASTIC, and how can I not pick them with that adjective.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
Tennessee (8-3) @ #19 Kentucky (7-4)
The Vols pass defense is pretty bad, so yeah, Kentucky can exploit it all day and all night. Then again, Kentucky's defense is no great shakes either. I haven't been all that impressed with Tennessee, and again, they have a weakness Kentucky can exploit, so I'll give the nod to the 'Cats.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Utah (8-3) @ #23 BYU (8-2)
BYU's just been bitchslapping the conference, and the MWC champ seems to always finish undefeated in the conference on the year. Utah has a definite shot, and seem to be the #2 team in the MWC, but again, BYU's far and away the favorite.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
UTEP (4-7) @ Central Florida (8-3)
UTEP's just absolutely crumbling, and UCF's one of the elite teams in the conference. Kevin Smith could have an insane day, but either way, this'll be lopsided.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
SMU (1-10) @ Memphis (6-5)
Same thing as above - SMU's just dead in the water. Memphis'll put up a lot of points, they'll win at home, yep.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (6-5) @ Ohio (5-6)
Pardon me while I shrug and yawn. Miami seems to be the better team, even if it's hard to recommend anyone that participated in their game vs. Akron. But still, I'll choose the home team in the name of MAC parity and general silliness.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
Temple (4-7) @ Western Michigan (4-7)
WMU beating Iowa shows they at least have a pulse after being possibly the most disappointing team in the country. So I'll give them the nod at home.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
Wake Forest (7-4) @ Vanderbilt (5-6)
Yawn, all this mediocrity. Vandy's looked much better of late, so I'll give a competitive SEC team the edge at home over a pretty good is blase Wake team.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Arkansas State (5-6) @ Southern Miss (6-5)
Bleh. Arkansas State was dead in the water after a hot start until they had a big day against North Texas, but, well, it's North Texas. USM's no great shakes this year, but Arkansas State hasn't shown me much in months.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (8-3) @ Rice (3-8)
Rice has gotten better, but Tulsa's still the absolute beast of the C-USA, and since a win clinches their division of C-USA, they'll be motivated here too. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Connecticut (9-2) @ #3 West Virginia (9-1)
Oh, this one'll make me sad. UConn's one chance is that they're a team that wins on turnovers, and as both the USF game and late in the Cincy game showed, WVU can fumble it over quite easily. But still, this is at West Virginia, and UConn hasn't shown much on the road. WVU shuts down the run, and UConn is essentially useless without their running game. And the Mountaineers are just a much better team. Sigh.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 3
#6 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4)
GT looked good against UNC, but UGA's been looking better against better teams. There's the old axiom that anything can happen in a rivalry game, but that's the only reason this shouldn't be a completely one-sided affair.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Oklahoma State (6-5) @ #11 Oklahoma (9-2)
Sam Bradford's in, so this one got interesting. OK State doesn't have much of a defense, and OU's can be hit or miss. As much as I'd like to pick Oklahoma State, and I'd really like to, I just can't see it with Bradford in, since it's not like he has a hand injury that will affect his mechanics or anything. Plus while losing DeMarco Murray hurts, the Sooners have a bunch of talented running backs. OU should win what could very well be a fun little shootout.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
#12 Oregon (8-2) @ UCLA (5-5)
Oh jeez. Despite having the inferior Leaf brother at quarterback, Oregon may actually be better off, as UCLA's essentially starting a wide receiver at the position. I'll give Oregon the edge since I assume they've re-worked their offense to fit Leaf, but UCLA can give them fits if they feel like it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Duke (1-10) @ North Carolina (3-8)
UNC's very underrated - if their QBs threw less interceptions, they could easily have a better record. Which...seems like an obvious thing to say. But still, it's better than not being able to move the ball at all or anything. As I said with the Notre Dame game, Duke's given up, although this being a rivalry game (and Duke's best shot at a second win) should have them fired up. Still, I'll give the edge to the better team, even though Duke has a shot if they feel like it.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (5-6) @ Fresno State (6-4)
KSU's in the absolute doldrums, but staring bowl-eligibility in the face should hopefully motivate them. Plus Fresno's not all that good.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Texas Southern @ Houston (7-4)
Come on now.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Utah State (1-10) @ Idaho (1-10)
After some sophisticated computer analysis, I have determined that both teams are very bad. Idaho is at home and seems less worse.
My Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1
Notre Dame (2-9) @ Stanford (3-7)
Oh jeez. Notre Dame's probably the better team, honestly. Which...says a lot about Stanford. But it's at Stanford. Oh jeez. I'll just go with the Irish, who knows.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Ball State (6-5) @ Northern Illinois (2-9)
NIU's gotten a bit better recently, but are still very bad. Ball State's one of the better MAC teams, which...means little with the conference's parity, but I'll still give it to the Cards.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Nevada (5-5) @ San Jose State (4-7)
Could be a neat little game, especially with it being at SJSU, as both teams have big-offense ability when they feel like it. Nevada's been the better team, but either one has a chance if this devolves into a shootout.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
Western Kentucky @ North Texas (1-9)
WKU's been competitive in their I-A games, UNT less so.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UAB (2-9) @ Marshall (2-9)
Marshall's actually stepped things up to look a lot better lately, plus they've been the better team of the two throughout the year. Really though, yawn.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
#7 Florida (8-3) vs. Florida State (7-4)
FSU hasn't been all that impressive of late - I mean, they gave up 340 yards to Maryland, bleh. I mean, the Seminoles are fine and all, but I rate them fairly low in Tebow stoppability. If Tebow gets hurt, sure, but they only have a 15% or so chance otherwise.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
UNLV (2-9) @ New Mexico (7-4)
Bleh. New Mexico's a wholly fine team that really doesn't impress at anything, UNLV could be just the same if they had gotten a few more breaks during the season. I'll call for UNLV to catch one here and even things out a tad.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#25 Clemson (8-3) vs. South Carolina (6-5)
Statistical analysis is a folly in a Clemson game. I mean, come on, we know the implosion is on, don't we?
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (5-5) @ Florida International (0-10)
Rivalry game, anything can happen and such, but FIU's just rotten, and FAU's been a competitive team almost all year. Hell, they beat Minnesota, that counts for...a little.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
Louisiana-Monroe (5-6) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (3-8)
ULM was the better team even before they beat Alabama, and with a chance at a bowl AND this being a rivalry game, I assume the Warhawks will be motivated to absolutely dominate, which they easily can.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Washington State (4-7) @ Washington (4-7)
Intriguing, especially after last week, where Wazzou got annihilated by Oregon State, and Washington went batshit insane on the ground. Still, both teams should bring their A game, and I'll go with the better team on the year.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:15 PM
#21 Cincinnati (8-3) @ Syracuse (2-9)
I feel obligated to write a sentence for this preview.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
#4 Missouri (10-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-0)
...really? This is such a hard one to pick, especially since Kansas's annihilation of Iowa State impressed me. Both offenses are obviously great, but the question mark is Kansas's defense - we know Missouri's is fine, but nothing special, and Kansas's has been great, but not against many high-powered offenses. Then again, Missouri's had much worse stats against mostly the same level of guys. And really, the rivalry game axiom makes this even more of a pick 'em. The statistical edge screams Kansas Kansas Kansas, but inertia's a hard thing to overcome, and I'll go with the pick I made a few weeks ago.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Alabama (6-5) vs. Auburn (7-4)
Alabama's not a bad team, they just had a bad case of turnoveritis against LA-Monroe. Auburn's a very vulnerable team with Brandon Cox at the helm, and I think the Tide just might want some redemption here.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
TCU (6-5) @ San Diego State (4-6)
TCU seems to have turned the ship around. This'll probably be one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2) @ #17 Virginia (9-2)
Two teams that started off slowly, but have come on hard the last few weeks to make this an interesting, interesting game. In fact, both are coming off of complete shitkickings of Miami; Virginia's was more one-sided, but VT's holding of the Canes to negative 2 rushing yards was probably the most impressive individual statistic. I'll still give UVA the edge at home, though - they've been more impressive as a whole in recent weeks, and again, they're at home. Still, this should be an ugly defensive battle that either team can win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
#13 South Florida (8-3) @ Pittsburgh (4-6)
Pitt can be a dangerous team - they have an ever-improving frosh QB and two good running backs. Still, after what USF absolutely did to poor Louisville and Brian Brohm, this could be put away early and turn out ugly.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-6) @ #24 Boston College (9-2)
God, Miami's going to go 5-7, aren't they? As overrated as BC can be at moments, if they can do one thing, it's shut down the run. And as their -2 rushing yards against Virginia Tech showed, Miami's running game can be shut down. And whoever Miami starts at QB, well, they're not good enough to win this game alone. Miami definitely has the talent to pull this off, but it requires a performance living up to said talent, and they've shown nothing near that this year.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-6) @ NC State (5-6)
Oh, who knows. The ACC picture has somewhat unmuddled itself in the past few weeks, but these two teams remain question marks in the middle of the pack. They're not GOOD, they're not BAD, and NC State has a tendency to just throw games away via interception. And hell, why not call for that to continue.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Buffalo (4-7) @ Kent State (3-8)
Kent State's been horribly unlucky all year - can they just get one win? Please?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2
Tulane (4-7) @ East Carolina (6-5)
ECU's scuffling and hasn't really impressed me. Plus Tulane is MATT FORTASTIC, and how can I not pick them with that adjective.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
Tennessee (8-3) @ #19 Kentucky (7-4)
The Vols pass defense is pretty bad, so yeah, Kentucky can exploit it all day and all night. Then again, Kentucky's defense is no great shakes either. I haven't been all that impressed with Tennessee, and again, they have a weakness Kentucky can exploit, so I'll give the nod to the 'Cats.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Utah (8-3) @ #23 BYU (8-2)
BYU's just been bitchslapping the conference, and the MWC champ seems to always finish undefeated in the conference on the year. Utah has a definite shot, and seem to be the #2 team in the MWC, but again, BYU's far and away the favorite.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
UTEP (4-7) @ Central Florida (8-3)
UTEP's just absolutely crumbling, and UCF's one of the elite teams in the conference. Kevin Smith could have an insane day, but either way, this'll be lopsided.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
SMU (1-10) @ Memphis (6-5)
Same thing as above - SMU's just dead in the water. Memphis'll put up a lot of points, they'll win at home, yep.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (6-5) @ Ohio (5-6)
Pardon me while I shrug and yawn. Miami seems to be the better team, even if it's hard to recommend anyone that participated in their game vs. Akron. But still, I'll choose the home team in the name of MAC parity and general silliness.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
Temple (4-7) @ Western Michigan (4-7)
WMU beating Iowa shows they at least have a pulse after being possibly the most disappointing team in the country. So I'll give them the nod at home.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
Wake Forest (7-4) @ Vanderbilt (5-6)
Yawn, all this mediocrity. Vandy's looked much better of late, so I'll give a competitive SEC team the edge at home over a pretty good is blase Wake team.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Arkansas State (5-6) @ Southern Miss (6-5)
Bleh. Arkansas State was dead in the water after a hot start until they had a big day against North Texas, but, well, it's North Texas. USM's no great shakes this year, but Arkansas State hasn't shown me much in months.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (8-3) @ Rice (3-8)
Rice has gotten better, but Tulsa's still the absolute beast of the C-USA, and since a win clinches their division of C-USA, they'll be motivated here too. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Connecticut (9-2) @ #3 West Virginia (9-1)
Oh, this one'll make me sad. UConn's one chance is that they're a team that wins on turnovers, and as both the USF game and late in the Cincy game showed, WVU can fumble it over quite easily. But still, this is at West Virginia, and UConn hasn't shown much on the road. WVU shuts down the run, and UConn is essentially useless without their running game. And the Mountaineers are just a much better team. Sigh.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 3
#6 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4)
GT looked good against UNC, but UGA's been looking better against better teams. There's the old axiom that anything can happen in a rivalry game, but that's the only reason this shouldn't be a completely one-sided affair.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Oklahoma State (6-5) @ #11 Oklahoma (9-2)
Sam Bradford's in, so this one got interesting. OK State doesn't have much of a defense, and OU's can be hit or miss. As much as I'd like to pick Oklahoma State, and I'd really like to, I just can't see it with Bradford in, since it's not like he has a hand injury that will affect his mechanics or anything. Plus while losing DeMarco Murray hurts, the Sooners have a bunch of talented running backs. OU should win what could very well be a fun little shootout.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
#12 Oregon (8-2) @ UCLA (5-5)
Oh jeez. Despite having the inferior Leaf brother at quarterback, Oregon may actually be better off, as UCLA's essentially starting a wide receiver at the position. I'll give Oregon the edge since I assume they've re-worked their offense to fit Leaf, but UCLA can give them fits if they feel like it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Duke (1-10) @ North Carolina (3-8)
UNC's very underrated - if their QBs threw less interceptions, they could easily have a better record. Which...seems like an obvious thing to say. But still, it's better than not being able to move the ball at all or anything. As I said with the Notre Dame game, Duke's given up, although this being a rivalry game (and Duke's best shot at a second win) should have them fired up. Still, I'll give the edge to the better team, even though Duke has a shot if they feel like it.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (5-6) @ Fresno State (6-4)
KSU's in the absolute doldrums, but staring bowl-eligibility in the face should hopefully motivate them. Plus Fresno's not all that good.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Texas Southern @ Houston (7-4)
Come on now.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Utah State (1-10) @ Idaho (1-10)
After some sophisticated computer analysis, I have determined that both teams are very bad. Idaho is at home and seems less worse.
My Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1
Notre Dame (2-9) @ Stanford (3-7)
Oh jeez. Notre Dame's probably the better team, honestly. Which...says a lot about Stanford. But it's at Stanford. Oh jeez. I'll just go with the Irish, who knows.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Ball State (6-5) @ Northern Illinois (2-9)
NIU's gotten a bit better recently, but are still very bad. Ball State's one of the better MAC teams, which...means little with the conference's parity, but I'll still give it to the Cards.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Nevada (5-5) @ San Jose State (4-7)
Could be a neat little game, especially with it being at SJSU, as both teams have big-offense ability when they feel like it. Nevada's been the better team, but either one has a chance if this devolves into a shootout.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
Western Kentucky @ North Texas (1-9)
WKU's been competitive in their I-A games, UNT less so.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UAB (2-9) @ Marshall (2-9)
Marshall's actually stepped things up to look a lot better lately, plus they've been the better team of the two throughout the year. Really though, yawn.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
#7 Florida (8-3) vs. Florida State (7-4)
FSU hasn't been all that impressive of late - I mean, they gave up 340 yards to Maryland, bleh. I mean, the Seminoles are fine and all, but I rate them fairly low in Tebow stoppability. If Tebow gets hurt, sure, but they only have a 15% or so chance otherwise.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
UNLV (2-9) @ New Mexico (7-4)
Bleh. New Mexico's a wholly fine team that really doesn't impress at anything, UNLV could be just the same if they had gotten a few more breaks during the season. I'll call for UNLV to catch one here and even things out a tad.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#25 Clemson (8-3) vs. South Carolina (6-5)
Statistical analysis is a folly in a Clemson game. I mean, come on, we know the implosion is on, don't we?
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (5-5) @ Florida International (0-10)
Rivalry game, anything can happen and such, but FIU's just rotten, and FAU's been a competitive team almost all year. Hell, they beat Minnesota, that counts for...a little.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
Louisiana-Monroe (5-6) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (3-8)
ULM was the better team even before they beat Alabama, and with a chance at a bowl AND this being a rivalry game, I assume the Warhawks will be motivated to absolutely dominate, which they easily can.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Washington State (4-7) @ Washington (4-7)
Intriguing, especially after last week, where Wazzou got annihilated by Oregon State, and Washington went batshit insane on the ground. Still, both teams should bring their A game, and I'll go with the better team on the year.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:15 PM
#21 Cincinnati (8-3) @ Syracuse (2-9)
I feel obligated to write a sentence for this preview.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
#4 Missouri (10-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-0)
...really? This is such a hard one to pick, especially since Kansas's annihilation of Iowa State impressed me. Both offenses are obviously great, but the question mark is Kansas's defense - we know Missouri's is fine, but nothing special, and Kansas's has been great, but not against many high-powered offenses. Then again, Missouri's had much worse stats against mostly the same level of guys. And really, the rivalry game axiom makes this even more of a pick 'em. The statistical edge screams Kansas Kansas Kansas, but inertia's a hard thing to overcome, and I'll go with the pick I made a few weeks ago.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Alabama (6-5) vs. Auburn (7-4)
Alabama's not a bad team, they just had a bad case of turnoveritis against LA-Monroe. Auburn's a very vulnerable team with Brandon Cox at the helm, and I think the Tide just might want some redemption here.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
TCU (6-5) @ San Diego State (4-6)
TCU seems to have turned the ship around. This'll probably be one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Sunday, November 18, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 12
#1 LSU (10-1, #1 LW): The best of a very flawed bunch, as LSU's fallen from their undisputed #1 status to look very, very disputed. I mean, come on, Ole Miss? I went back and forth, but I eventually kept LSU on top ahead of...
#2 Ohio State (11-1, #4): ...yes, these guys. I seem to be higher on the Big Ten than, well, just about anyone, but I see OSU's schedule as absolutely fine, and they're the only team here that's absolutely dominated in all of their wins.
#3 West Virginia (9-1, #3): So close to elite status. Their case of fumblitis at a crucial time in the Cincy game worried me, especially in light of their 6-turnover loss to USF earlier this year. Still, this is a team that can beat anyone, especially with how they've shut down the running game.
#4 Missouri (10-1, #5): I still have questions about the defense, as it sort of comes and goes. Still, nobody's been able to stop Chase Daniel, and this is a very good team, and in a year like this, very good gets you #4.
#5 Arizona State (9-1, #7): Suddenly the best team in the Pac 10 by default. They're very good!
#6 Georgia (9-2, #8): Matt Stafford's still somewhat shaky, but with that running game and defense, he can afford to be. Much like Missouri, a very good if not great team, but again, that gets you #6.
#7 Florida (8-3, #10): Tim Tebow is so awesome, that people made Chuck Norris-like exaggerations about him, and he slapped them for not being funny, like, two years ago.
#8 Kansas (11-0, #14): Yeah, I'm buying in. There's nothing here to suggest they're not on the level of, say, Missouri, even if they might not actually win.
#9 USC (8-2, #13): Still lurking.
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2, #16): A team that suddenly decided to match their reputation, they've come through with a string of excellent performances on defense and good enough performances on offense.
#11 Oklahoma (9-2, #6): Told you they were vulnerable! I haven't seen anything on Bradford or Murray missing extended periods of time, so this seems about right for a team with McFadden Syndrome: the best in the country some of the time, and horribly disappointing at others.
#12 Oregon (8-2, #2): A bit of a precipitous drop for the Ducks, but, well, did you see them with Brady Leaf in the game? Oh jesus. If they tailor the schemes to better fit him and it looks good and all, I'll bump them back up accordingly, but I'm very pessimistic at the moment.
#13 South Florida (8-3, #18): Wow. They absolutely annihilated Brian Brohm, so they can shut down pretty much any QB in the nation. Which, of course, means they can beat any team in the nation.
#14 Wisconsin (9-3, #9): Even writing off playing that close to Minnesota - MINNESOTA! - as a one time thing, this is the least I can penalize the Badgers.
#15 Illinois (9-3, #17): God help us all, Juice Williams looks like a, at the very least, decent passing quarterback.
#16 Texas (9-2, #15): Flawed, talented, suspect defense, nothing much to say with them on a bye week.
#17 Virginia (9-2, #20): See above, replace "defense" with offense, more or less.
#18 Boise State (10-1, #23): Kansas-lite, in that they've looked very good in beating absolutely nobody. Plus that Washington loss because somewhat less inexplicable after this week.
#19 Kentucky (7-4, #21): Still the best of the second-tier SEC teams.
#20 Michigan (8-4, #12): I mean, they have the excuse of injury, but still. Putting them here is kind of splitting the difference - I assume Henne and Hart will be near 100% by the bowl game, so I didn't want to drop them too far, but they really don't deserve to stay anywhere close to steady after laying THAT big of an egg.
#21 Cincinnati (9-2, #22): Playing WVU tight legitimized them as an above-average team, even if a bit inflated thanks to all those takeaways.
#22 BYU (8-2, #25): SOLIDLY ABOVE-AVERAGE MID-MAJOR TEAM! Nothing more, nothing less.
#23 Penn State (8-4, #11): Oh, Anthony Morelli. Pardon while I sigh and shake my head. Or is that shake my head and sigh?
#24 Boston College (9-2, --): Yawn. A perfectly fine team nudged back into the top 25 by attrition.
#25 Clemson (8-3, #19): Inconsistent, frustrating, inexplicable at times, still better than Hawaii.
#2 Ohio State (11-1, #4): ...yes, these guys. I seem to be higher on the Big Ten than, well, just about anyone, but I see OSU's schedule as absolutely fine, and they're the only team here that's absolutely dominated in all of their wins.
#3 West Virginia (9-1, #3): So close to elite status. Their case of fumblitis at a crucial time in the Cincy game worried me, especially in light of their 6-turnover loss to USF earlier this year. Still, this is a team that can beat anyone, especially with how they've shut down the running game.
#4 Missouri (10-1, #5): I still have questions about the defense, as it sort of comes and goes. Still, nobody's been able to stop Chase Daniel, and this is a very good team, and in a year like this, very good gets you #4.
#5 Arizona State (9-1, #7): Suddenly the best team in the Pac 10 by default. They're very good!
#6 Georgia (9-2, #8): Matt Stafford's still somewhat shaky, but with that running game and defense, he can afford to be. Much like Missouri, a very good if not great team, but again, that gets you #6.
#7 Florida (8-3, #10): Tim Tebow is so awesome, that people made Chuck Norris-like exaggerations about him, and he slapped them for not being funny, like, two years ago.
#8 Kansas (11-0, #14): Yeah, I'm buying in. There's nothing here to suggest they're not on the level of, say, Missouri, even if they might not actually win.
#9 USC (8-2, #13): Still lurking.
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2, #16): A team that suddenly decided to match their reputation, they've come through with a string of excellent performances on defense and good enough performances on offense.
#11 Oklahoma (9-2, #6): Told you they were vulnerable! I haven't seen anything on Bradford or Murray missing extended periods of time, so this seems about right for a team with McFadden Syndrome: the best in the country some of the time, and horribly disappointing at others.
#12 Oregon (8-2, #2): A bit of a precipitous drop for the Ducks, but, well, did you see them with Brady Leaf in the game? Oh jesus. If they tailor the schemes to better fit him and it looks good and all, I'll bump them back up accordingly, but I'm very pessimistic at the moment.
#13 South Florida (8-3, #18): Wow. They absolutely annihilated Brian Brohm, so they can shut down pretty much any QB in the nation. Which, of course, means they can beat any team in the nation.
#14 Wisconsin (9-3, #9): Even writing off playing that close to Minnesota - MINNESOTA! - as a one time thing, this is the least I can penalize the Badgers.
#15 Illinois (9-3, #17): God help us all, Juice Williams looks like a, at the very least, decent passing quarterback.
#16 Texas (9-2, #15): Flawed, talented, suspect defense, nothing much to say with them on a bye week.
#17 Virginia (9-2, #20): See above, replace "defense" with offense, more or less.
#18 Boise State (10-1, #23): Kansas-lite, in that they've looked very good in beating absolutely nobody. Plus that Washington loss because somewhat less inexplicable after this week.
#19 Kentucky (7-4, #21): Still the best of the second-tier SEC teams.
#20 Michigan (8-4, #12): I mean, they have the excuse of injury, but still. Putting them here is kind of splitting the difference - I assume Henne and Hart will be near 100% by the bowl game, so I didn't want to drop them too far, but they really don't deserve to stay anywhere close to steady after laying THAT big of an egg.
#21 Cincinnati (9-2, #22): Playing WVU tight legitimized them as an above-average team, even if a bit inflated thanks to all those takeaways.
#22 BYU (8-2, #25): SOLIDLY ABOVE-AVERAGE MID-MAJOR TEAM! Nothing more, nothing less.
#23 Penn State (8-4, #11): Oh, Anthony Morelli. Pardon while I sigh and shake my head. Or is that shake my head and sigh?
#24 Boston College (9-2, --): Yawn. A perfectly fine team nudged back into the top 25 by attrition.
#25 Clemson (8-3, #19): Inconsistent, frustrating, inexplicable at times, still better than Hawaii.
Week 12 Recap
Why yes, I am proud of myself for calling the Oregon and Oklahoma upsets. :).
#1 LSU 41, Mississippi 24
On the negative side, Ole Miss outgained LSU 478-415. On the plus side, nobody for Ole Miss was really all that productive - QB Brent Schaeffer only completed 45% of his passes, and also led the team in rushing with only 90 yards. As for LSU, well, Matt Flynn was efficient (68%), and the Tigers went with their usual RB-by-committee approach. I'll knock LSU down a bit, since they really shouldn't be an undisputed #1 with how they've been skating by at points. And good for Ole Miss's offense for showing some signs of life.
LSU: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi: STOCK UP
Arizona 34, #2 Oregon 24
Not all that shocking - heck, I predicted it. And it wasn't really an AWFUL performance by Oregon; they held Arizona to only 56 yards rushing, gained 463 yards of their own, and the Wildcats needed a pick six and a return TD to win it. And Jonathan Stewart had 131 yards rushing. Still, Oregon gets knocked down for the obvious reason - the loss of QB Dennis Dixon for the year. Dixon wasn't quite as elite as his press would make you think, but he was a hell of a lot better than Brady Leaf, who only completed 48% for 163 and 2 picks in relief. Sad to see things take this turn for the Ducks. As for Arizona, I'll keep them steady - I've been bumping them up recently, and this wasn't the type of overwhelming performance that makes me like them any further. They're just a solid team.
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK DOWN
#3 West Virginia 28, #22 Cincinnati 23
Cincy got their 3 turnovers, but gave up 2, so it was essentially a wash, like most of the game. Pat White was a bit of a conundrum here - he had 139 yards on 68% passing, and had 155 and 2 TD on the ground, but he also threw a pick and fumbled it twice. Cincy's Ben Mauk essentially was the entire offense, with 323 and 2 TD on 56% passing, but WVU just ran it and ran it and ran it. And the Mountaineers once again shut down the run. Really a legitimizing game for Mauk and to an extent Cincy than anything else - WVU's still an elite team.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
#4 Ohio State 14, #12 Michigan 3
Just depressing. Michigan did nothing. Less than nothing. Mario Manningham had a bunch of crucial drops. Mike Hart, who was probably the most dependable, consistent back during his career than anyone else in the nation, also probably had the worst game of his career - 18 carries for only 41 yards. And Chad Henne was pretty awful while playing injured too - only 71 yards on 32.4% passing. OSU QB Todd Boeckman was only mediocre, but that didn't matter - RB Chris Wells gashed the Wolverines again, this year for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just a depressing end to see for a Michigan era - the touted seniors go 0-4 against OSU, go out on probably the worst performances of their respective careers, and Lloyd Carr proves all the criticisms about him right and then some. They better win that bowl game.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#5 Missouri 49, Kansas State 32
A pretty even game, actually - the difference for Mizzou was mostly thanks to return TDs off a kickoff and a blocked punt. Still, the KSU defense did little to stop Chase Daniel, who completed 68% for 284 and 4 touchdowns. Of course, Mizzou's own defense was overly great, as KSU's Josh Freeman's line was only slightly inferior - 63%, 255 yards, and a 2/1 ratio. And the Wildcats had the better running game, as James Johnson gained 174 and a TD. Missouri's status reminds me a lot of Oregon; they're obviously one of the top teams in their conference, but any team that's solid or better could easily take them down.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Kansas State: STOCK STEADY
Texas Tech 34, #6 Oklahoma 27
Sam Bradford's injury early was obviously the difference, especially since OU made it so close in the end. Texas Tech, as usual, passed for a bunch of yards, and exploited that vulnerable OU D. Oklahoma wasn't a very elite team, so this upset is pretty unsurprising, but I'm still knocking the Sooners down a bit thanks to injury questions about Bradford and stud RB DeMarco Murray, who was carried off late after slipping and falling during the game's final onside kick.
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
#8 Georgia 24, #21 Kentucky 13
A bit of an odd game, as Georgia only outgained Kentucky by 1 yard, didn't stop Andre' Woodson much at all (57%, 270, 1/1 ratio), and gave up 4 turnovers to Kentucky's 1, but still won fairly easily. The Bulldogs did shut down the running game though, holding UK to only 23 on the ground. Matt Stafford wasn't very good (55%, 100, 2 INT), but, as usual, the running game bailed him out, led by Knowshon Moreno's 134 yards. This game doesn't mean much as far as the perception of either team - they both performed roughly how you'd expect.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK STEADY
#9 Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 34
Well, holy shit. Badgers RB Zach Brown had 250 and 2 yards, but even if QB Tyler Donovan threw only 13 passes, completing less than 50% (6) is pretty horrible against this defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota QB Adam Weber was essentially the entire offense - he had 352 and a 3/2 ratio throwing, and accounting for 87 of the Gophers' 149 rushing yards. Uh...just really inexplicable. Wisconsin gets an obvious, obvious downgrade for allowing what's been such a horrible team to be so competitive.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota: STOCK UP
#10 Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 20
Tebow watch: 25/35 (71.4%), 338 yards, 3/1 ratio, 11 rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Seriously, he's like in NCAA Football 2004 when you'd get the top mobile QB in the nation and just run the entire offense through him. PRESS R2 AND GO!
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida Atlantic: STOCK STEADY
Michigan State 35, #11 Penn State 31
MORELLI'D! 46%, 190 yards, TD. Not quite the obvious implosion he usually had, but still a very bad game. The PSU run D held (147 yards allowed), but MSU QB Brian Hoyer decided to just be absolutely great: 16/21 (76%), 256 yards, and a 4/2 ratio. Well then. Obviously, Penn State gets a knock down and Michigan State gets nudged up with a legitimate QB.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN
#14 Kansas 45, Iowa State 7
Wow. Iowa State's a better team than their record, but the Jayhawks absolutely whipped ISU to the point where the Cyclones matched the perception of them. No particular KU running back did that much, but Todd Reesing completed an insane 81% for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. Just...wow. Kansas is definitely a legitimate upper-tier team, and I actually give them a chance against pretty much anyone.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK STEADY
#16 Virginia Tech 44, Miami 14
A similarly impressive win to that of Kansas. Miami's always gotten by on their running game and defense, and VT both put up 44 points and held Miami running backs to 14 yards. FOURTEEN. Miami QB Kyle Wright was the leading rusher with NINE. Just amazing.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
#17 Illinois 41, Northwestern 22
Illinois ran for 330 yards, shock. While NW's defense is no great shakes, Juice Williams had another very good game passing - 217 yards on 65% passing, if only for a 1/1 ratio. Yep, they're legit.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Northwestern: STOCK STEADY
#18 South Florida 55, Louisville 17
Wow. I thought Louisville's D had turned the corner, but USF's Matt Grothe had 195 yards and a 2/1 ratio on 74% passing, and added 67 and a TD rushing. Oh, and running back Mike Ford added another 141 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm had his worst game in recently memory, if ever, completing only 48.6% for 211 and a 1/3 ratio. Just awful awful numbers, and an amazing, amazing performance by this USF pass defense. Just an absolutely huge statement game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
Boston College 20, #19 Clemson 17
BC's go-ahead TD to a wide open receiver, dropping their own go-ahead TD, just missing the tying FG - a loss just so perfectly...Clemson. Matt Ryan actually completed 66% en route to 315 and a 1/1 ratio, and God help us if that late TD supposedly affirms that he is HEISMANESQUE. As for the Clemson offense, Cullen Harper had a good game, but the running backs had a pretty disappointing night. Just really a perfect capsule of the season and the programs as a whole - BC was perfectly above-average and absolutely nothing else, while Clemson was just frustrating as hell in a loss.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Clemson: STOCK DOWN
#23 Boise State 58, Idaho 14
Seems about right. Just a complete blowout. Yep.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Idaho: STOCK STEADY
Washington 37, #24 California 23
The fuck? Though I guess that happens when you give up 335 rushing yards. Washington RB Louis Ranking had 224 and a TD, and Brandon Johnson added 120 and a TD more. While Cal QB Nate Longshore had an excellent game (71%, 236, 3/1 ratio), I think maybe, just maybe, Cal's run D is a liability.
Washington: STOCK UP
California: STOCK DOWN
#25 BYU 35, Wyoming 10
Wyoming's just absolutely imploding. They had only 9 yards rushing against an offense-based team. BYU's easily the best team in the conference, to the point where this says nothing about them.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Miami of Ohio 7, Akron 0
In my preview, I said this should be entertaining. Even if it kind of was in a trainwreck sort of way, I apologize immensely.
Miami of Ohio: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK DOWN
Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14
This was all due to 4 Tide turnovers, but karma's a bitch, innit? KINSMON LANCASTER! Man, this amuses me to no end. Is Saban fired yet?
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK UP
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31
I have no idea whose passing defense is worse. On the one hand, Arkansas allowed MSU QB Wesley Carroll to have 421 yards on 57% passing, even if he only had a 4/4 ratio, which is...fairly amusing. On the other hand, MSU allowed CASEY DICK, yes CASEY DICK, to have a line of...sit down...14 of 17, 199 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I can now take neither of these teams seriously. Well, not that I really did before.
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi State: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas State 31, North Texas 27
Arkansas State actually had an offense here, as they'd looked horrible in Sun Belt play after playing very well against Texas and Tennessee out of conference. I'll give them a nudge up, although who knows if it's a one-time thing or the beginning of a resurgence.
Arkansas State: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Tulsa 49, Army 39
Tulsa giving up more points and yardage to Army than Houston is...fairly inexplicable. Stock down just for that, and I'll give Army a nudge for apparently having an offense?
Tulsa: STOCK DOWN
Army: STOCK UP
Central Florida 49, SMU 20
Kevin Smith watch: 22 carries, 179 yards, 3 TD, fumble.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Connecticut 30, Syracuse 7
CONNECTICUT OUTGAINS A BIG EAST OPPONENT! While I like Tyler Lorenzen as a perfectly fine caretaker on a running-oriented team, Cuse is so bad they made him look like a legitimate very good QB - 16/24, 213, and a TD.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame 28, Duke 7
UND looked good here, so...good for them? Tom Zbikowski being put in as an option QB late in the game amused me, though.
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Hawaii 28, Nevada 26
Their best win to date. Easily. I'll give them a bit of credit for it, but jeez, they just keep winning close, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK UP
Nevada: STOCK STEADY
Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19
And the Iowa offense cannot, in fact, be that great, even against a MAC defense. Western Michigan finally lived up to their preseason standards, too bad they waited until 3-7 to do so.
Western Michigan: STOCK UP
Iowa: STOCK DOWN
Utah State 35, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State continues emulating Hawaii in every way except for the wins. Pardon me while I shrug. Utah State gets a bump up for winning...somehow.
Utah State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
The yardage was about even, but Wazzou QB Alex Brink's line shows the difference in the game: 21/45 (27%), 314 yards, 6 INT. Well done, Alex Brink. Well done.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Washington State: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 16
Ew. One of those lose-lose games. Ray Rice had 110 and a TD, but he was a shining light in a black hole, as Mike Teel had a horrible 40% completion rate for 113 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Things for Pitt starter Pat Bostick weren't much better before he was pulled, as he had 41% for 77 and a 1/1 ratio. Oh, and Pitt only had 73 yards on the ground. Blech.
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN
Tulane 45, Rice 31
Matt Forte watch: 39 carries, 195 yards, 5 TD. I say he takes this week over Kevin Smith.
Tulane: STOCK STEADY
Rice: STOCK STEADY
#1 LSU 41, Mississippi 24
On the negative side, Ole Miss outgained LSU 478-415. On the plus side, nobody for Ole Miss was really all that productive - QB Brent Schaeffer only completed 45% of his passes, and also led the team in rushing with only 90 yards. As for LSU, well, Matt Flynn was efficient (68%), and the Tigers went with their usual RB-by-committee approach. I'll knock LSU down a bit, since they really shouldn't be an undisputed #1 with how they've been skating by at points. And good for Ole Miss's offense for showing some signs of life.
LSU: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi: STOCK UP
Arizona 34, #2 Oregon 24
Not all that shocking - heck, I predicted it. And it wasn't really an AWFUL performance by Oregon; they held Arizona to only 56 yards rushing, gained 463 yards of their own, and the Wildcats needed a pick six and a return TD to win it. And Jonathan Stewart had 131 yards rushing. Still, Oregon gets knocked down for the obvious reason - the loss of QB Dennis Dixon for the year. Dixon wasn't quite as elite as his press would make you think, but he was a hell of a lot better than Brady Leaf, who only completed 48% for 163 and 2 picks in relief. Sad to see things take this turn for the Ducks. As for Arizona, I'll keep them steady - I've been bumping them up recently, and this wasn't the type of overwhelming performance that makes me like them any further. They're just a solid team.
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK DOWN
#3 West Virginia 28, #22 Cincinnati 23
Cincy got their 3 turnovers, but gave up 2, so it was essentially a wash, like most of the game. Pat White was a bit of a conundrum here - he had 139 yards on 68% passing, and had 155 and 2 TD on the ground, but he also threw a pick and fumbled it twice. Cincy's Ben Mauk essentially was the entire offense, with 323 and 2 TD on 56% passing, but WVU just ran it and ran it and ran it. And the Mountaineers once again shut down the run. Really a legitimizing game for Mauk and to an extent Cincy than anything else - WVU's still an elite team.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
#4 Ohio State 14, #12 Michigan 3
Just depressing. Michigan did nothing. Less than nothing. Mario Manningham had a bunch of crucial drops. Mike Hart, who was probably the most dependable, consistent back during his career than anyone else in the nation, also probably had the worst game of his career - 18 carries for only 41 yards. And Chad Henne was pretty awful while playing injured too - only 71 yards on 32.4% passing. OSU QB Todd Boeckman was only mediocre, but that didn't matter - RB Chris Wells gashed the Wolverines again, this year for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just a depressing end to see for a Michigan era - the touted seniors go 0-4 against OSU, go out on probably the worst performances of their respective careers, and Lloyd Carr proves all the criticisms about him right and then some. They better win that bowl game.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#5 Missouri 49, Kansas State 32
A pretty even game, actually - the difference for Mizzou was mostly thanks to return TDs off a kickoff and a blocked punt. Still, the KSU defense did little to stop Chase Daniel, who completed 68% for 284 and 4 touchdowns. Of course, Mizzou's own defense was overly great, as KSU's Josh Freeman's line was only slightly inferior - 63%, 255 yards, and a 2/1 ratio. And the Wildcats had the better running game, as James Johnson gained 174 and a TD. Missouri's status reminds me a lot of Oregon; they're obviously one of the top teams in their conference, but any team that's solid or better could easily take them down.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Kansas State: STOCK STEADY
Texas Tech 34, #6 Oklahoma 27
Sam Bradford's injury early was obviously the difference, especially since OU made it so close in the end. Texas Tech, as usual, passed for a bunch of yards, and exploited that vulnerable OU D. Oklahoma wasn't a very elite team, so this upset is pretty unsurprising, but I'm still knocking the Sooners down a bit thanks to injury questions about Bradford and stud RB DeMarco Murray, who was carried off late after slipping and falling during the game's final onside kick.
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
#8 Georgia 24, #21 Kentucky 13
A bit of an odd game, as Georgia only outgained Kentucky by 1 yard, didn't stop Andre' Woodson much at all (57%, 270, 1/1 ratio), and gave up 4 turnovers to Kentucky's 1, but still won fairly easily. The Bulldogs did shut down the running game though, holding UK to only 23 on the ground. Matt Stafford wasn't very good (55%, 100, 2 INT), but, as usual, the running game bailed him out, led by Knowshon Moreno's 134 yards. This game doesn't mean much as far as the perception of either team - they both performed roughly how you'd expect.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK STEADY
#9 Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 34
Well, holy shit. Badgers RB Zach Brown had 250 and 2 yards, but even if QB Tyler Donovan threw only 13 passes, completing less than 50% (6) is pretty horrible against this defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota QB Adam Weber was essentially the entire offense - he had 352 and a 3/2 ratio throwing, and accounting for 87 of the Gophers' 149 rushing yards. Uh...just really inexplicable. Wisconsin gets an obvious, obvious downgrade for allowing what's been such a horrible team to be so competitive.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota: STOCK UP
#10 Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 20
Tebow watch: 25/35 (71.4%), 338 yards, 3/1 ratio, 11 rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Seriously, he's like in NCAA Football 2004 when you'd get the top mobile QB in the nation and just run the entire offense through him. PRESS R2 AND GO!
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida Atlantic: STOCK STEADY
Michigan State 35, #11 Penn State 31
MORELLI'D! 46%, 190 yards, TD. Not quite the obvious implosion he usually had, but still a very bad game. The PSU run D held (147 yards allowed), but MSU QB Brian Hoyer decided to just be absolutely great: 16/21 (76%), 256 yards, and a 4/2 ratio. Well then. Obviously, Penn State gets a knock down and Michigan State gets nudged up with a legitimate QB.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN
#14 Kansas 45, Iowa State 7
Wow. Iowa State's a better team than their record, but the Jayhawks absolutely whipped ISU to the point where the Cyclones matched the perception of them. No particular KU running back did that much, but Todd Reesing completed an insane 81% for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. Just...wow. Kansas is definitely a legitimate upper-tier team, and I actually give them a chance against pretty much anyone.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK STEADY
#16 Virginia Tech 44, Miami 14
A similarly impressive win to that of Kansas. Miami's always gotten by on their running game and defense, and VT both put up 44 points and held Miami running backs to 14 yards. FOURTEEN. Miami QB Kyle Wright was the leading rusher with NINE. Just amazing.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
#17 Illinois 41, Northwestern 22
Illinois ran for 330 yards, shock. While NW's defense is no great shakes, Juice Williams had another very good game passing - 217 yards on 65% passing, if only for a 1/1 ratio. Yep, they're legit.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Northwestern: STOCK STEADY
#18 South Florida 55, Louisville 17
Wow. I thought Louisville's D had turned the corner, but USF's Matt Grothe had 195 yards and a 2/1 ratio on 74% passing, and added 67 and a TD rushing. Oh, and running back Mike Ford added another 141 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm had his worst game in recently memory, if ever, completing only 48.6% for 211 and a 1/3 ratio. Just awful awful numbers, and an amazing, amazing performance by this USF pass defense. Just an absolutely huge statement game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
Boston College 20, #19 Clemson 17
BC's go-ahead TD to a wide open receiver, dropping their own go-ahead TD, just missing the tying FG - a loss just so perfectly...Clemson. Matt Ryan actually completed 66% en route to 315 and a 1/1 ratio, and God help us if that late TD supposedly affirms that he is HEISMANESQUE. As for the Clemson offense, Cullen Harper had a good game, but the running backs had a pretty disappointing night. Just really a perfect capsule of the season and the programs as a whole - BC was perfectly above-average and absolutely nothing else, while Clemson was just frustrating as hell in a loss.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Clemson: STOCK DOWN
#23 Boise State 58, Idaho 14
Seems about right. Just a complete blowout. Yep.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Idaho: STOCK STEADY
Washington 37, #24 California 23
The fuck? Though I guess that happens when you give up 335 rushing yards. Washington RB Louis Ranking had 224 and a TD, and Brandon Johnson added 120 and a TD more. While Cal QB Nate Longshore had an excellent game (71%, 236, 3/1 ratio), I think maybe, just maybe, Cal's run D is a liability.
Washington: STOCK UP
California: STOCK DOWN
#25 BYU 35, Wyoming 10
Wyoming's just absolutely imploding. They had only 9 yards rushing against an offense-based team. BYU's easily the best team in the conference, to the point where this says nothing about them.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Miami of Ohio 7, Akron 0
In my preview, I said this should be entertaining. Even if it kind of was in a trainwreck sort of way, I apologize immensely.
Miami of Ohio: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK DOWN
Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14
This was all due to 4 Tide turnovers, but karma's a bitch, innit? KINSMON LANCASTER! Man, this amuses me to no end. Is Saban fired yet?
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK UP
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31
I have no idea whose passing defense is worse. On the one hand, Arkansas allowed MSU QB Wesley Carroll to have 421 yards on 57% passing, even if he only had a 4/4 ratio, which is...fairly amusing. On the other hand, MSU allowed CASEY DICK, yes CASEY DICK, to have a line of...sit down...14 of 17, 199 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I can now take neither of these teams seriously. Well, not that I really did before.
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi State: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas State 31, North Texas 27
Arkansas State actually had an offense here, as they'd looked horrible in Sun Belt play after playing very well against Texas and Tennessee out of conference. I'll give them a nudge up, although who knows if it's a one-time thing or the beginning of a resurgence.
Arkansas State: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Tulsa 49, Army 39
Tulsa giving up more points and yardage to Army than Houston is...fairly inexplicable. Stock down just for that, and I'll give Army a nudge for apparently having an offense?
Tulsa: STOCK DOWN
Army: STOCK UP
Central Florida 49, SMU 20
Kevin Smith watch: 22 carries, 179 yards, 3 TD, fumble.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Connecticut 30, Syracuse 7
CONNECTICUT OUTGAINS A BIG EAST OPPONENT! While I like Tyler Lorenzen as a perfectly fine caretaker on a running-oriented team, Cuse is so bad they made him look like a legitimate very good QB - 16/24, 213, and a TD.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame 28, Duke 7
UND looked good here, so...good for them? Tom Zbikowski being put in as an option QB late in the game amused me, though.
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Hawaii 28, Nevada 26
Their best win to date. Easily. I'll give them a bit of credit for it, but jeez, they just keep winning close, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK UP
Nevada: STOCK STEADY
Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19
And the Iowa offense cannot, in fact, be that great, even against a MAC defense. Western Michigan finally lived up to their preseason standards, too bad they waited until 3-7 to do so.
Western Michigan: STOCK UP
Iowa: STOCK DOWN
Utah State 35, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State continues emulating Hawaii in every way except for the wins. Pardon me while I shrug. Utah State gets a bump up for winning...somehow.
Utah State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
The yardage was about even, but Wazzou QB Alex Brink's line shows the difference in the game: 21/45 (27%), 314 yards, 6 INT. Well done, Alex Brink. Well done.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Washington State: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 16
Ew. One of those lose-lose games. Ray Rice had 110 and a TD, but he was a shining light in a black hole, as Mike Teel had a horrible 40% completion rate for 113 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Things for Pitt starter Pat Bostick weren't much better before he was pulled, as he had 41% for 77 and a 1/1 ratio. Oh, and Pitt only had 73 yards on the ground. Blech.
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN
Tulane 45, Rice 31
Matt Forte watch: 39 carries, 195 yards, 5 TD. I say he takes this week over Kevin Smith.
Tulane: STOCK STEADY
Rice: STOCK STEADY
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Saturday
Sorry for the delay, things are horribly busy.
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 11
#1 LSU (9-1, #2 LW)
#2 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#3 West Virginia (8-1, #4)
#4 Ohio State (10-1, #1)
#5 Missouri (9-1, #6)
#6 Oklahoma (9-1, #5)
#7 Arizona State (9-1, #7)
#8 Georgia (8-2, #12)
#9 Wisconsin (8-3, #13)
#10 Florida (7-3, #9)
#11 Penn State (8-3, #11)
#12 Michigan (8-3, #8)
#13 USC (8-2, #10)
#14 Kansas (10-0, #16)
#15 Texas (9-2, #17)
#16 Virginia Tech (8-2, #19)
#17 Illinois (8-2, #23)
#18 South Florida (7-3, #15)
#19 Clemson (8-2, #25)
#20 Virginia (9-2, --)
#21 Kentucky (7-3, #21)
#22 Cincinnati (8-2, --)
#23 Boise State (9-1, --)
#24 California (6-4, #14)
#25 BYU (7-2, --)
NOTES!
OSU losing wasn't the big deal - the lack of run defense was. I was on the fence about having them at #3 or #4, but West Virginia has both an ability to shut down the run and, obviously, that great offense, so I gave the Mountaineers the edge.
OU's (lack of) defensive performance against Baylor made it close between them and Missouri - I'd take the Tigers offense, albeit barely, so I moved them ahead of the Sooners.
Georgia's very good! Vulnerable, but very good, and this season, that's enough for #8.
Kansas moves up as they legitimize themselves further.
USF didn't do anything wrong - VT just had their second impressive win in a row, and Illinois, well, you know.
I still don't trust Clemson, but hey, they're playing well.
Cincinnati may be a bit of a kneejerk giving their two losses are to Louisville and Pitt - still, there's a lack of quality teams with quality wins (Tennessee over Arkansas being a case of "bad beating worse", as an example), and while UConn had been lucky all year, shutting them down so thoroughly impressed me.
I'm still not 100% sold on Boise, since they've had some games in the WAC that should probably be closer than they should, but still, they're very good.
BYU beats out Hawaii for #25 - I went with the team that has a semblance of a defense.
#2 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#3 West Virginia (8-1, #4)
#4 Ohio State (10-1, #1)
#5 Missouri (9-1, #6)
#6 Oklahoma (9-1, #5)
#7 Arizona State (9-1, #7)
#8 Georgia (8-2, #12)
#9 Wisconsin (8-3, #13)
#10 Florida (7-3, #9)
#11 Penn State (8-3, #11)
#12 Michigan (8-3, #8)
#13 USC (8-2, #10)
#14 Kansas (10-0, #16)
#15 Texas (9-2, #17)
#16 Virginia Tech (8-2, #19)
#17 Illinois (8-2, #23)
#18 South Florida (7-3, #15)
#19 Clemson (8-2, #25)
#20 Virginia (9-2, --)
#21 Kentucky (7-3, #21)
#22 Cincinnati (8-2, --)
#23 Boise State (9-1, --)
#24 California (6-4, #14)
#25 BYU (7-2, --)
NOTES!
OSU losing wasn't the big deal - the lack of run defense was. I was on the fence about having them at #3 or #4, but West Virginia has both an ability to shut down the run and, obviously, that great offense, so I gave the Mountaineers the edge.
OU's (lack of) defensive performance against Baylor made it close between them and Missouri - I'd take the Tigers offense, albeit barely, so I moved them ahead of the Sooners.
Georgia's very good! Vulnerable, but very good, and this season, that's enough for #8.
Kansas moves up as they legitimize themselves further.
USF didn't do anything wrong - VT just had their second impressive win in a row, and Illinois, well, you know.
I still don't trust Clemson, but hey, they're playing well.
Cincinnati may be a bit of a kneejerk giving their two losses are to Louisville and Pitt - still, there's a lack of quality teams with quality wins (Tennessee over Arkansas being a case of "bad beating worse", as an example), and while UConn had been lucky all year, shutting them down so thoroughly impressed me.
I'm still not 100% sold on Boise, since they've had some games in the WAC that should probably be closer than they should, but still, they're very good.
BYU beats out Hawaii for #25 - I went with the team that has a semblance of a defense.
Week 11 Recap
#23 Illinois 28, #1 Ohio State 21
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN
#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY
#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP
#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY
#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP
#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY
#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN
#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY
#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY
Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY
Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY
Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY
Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN
Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN
#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY
#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP
#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY
#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP
#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY
#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN
#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY
#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY
Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY
Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY
Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY
Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN
Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
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