Navy (8-4) vs. Utah (8-4)
Navy is what they always are - #1 in rushing offense, this year by over 50 yards per game, and somewhat suspect thanks to a weak schedule and a somewhat non-existent defense. They've been solid, but haven't really had a dominating win - they put up 74 on North Texas, but gave up 62 in the process, the Army game was much more close statistically than the 38-3 final score, and hell, they lost to Delaware. There's also the question of if the loss of coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will affect the team, but the immediate promotion of top assistant Ken Niumatalolo to the head spot should mitigate that somewhat, if not completely.
Utah's a confusing team. I thought of them pretty highly in the preseason, but they looked like one of the worst teams in the nation out of the gate, doing nothing against Oregon State, then looking bad against Air Force, although losing to the Falcons looked much worse then than now. They then proceeded to absolutely stomp UCLA, looking like they'd turned the corner, only to get shut out by UNLV. And then they went on a tear, winning their next seven games before losing to MWC champion BYU. But the thing is, very few of those wins were overly impressive, outside of shellacking of a Wyoming team that had already rolled over and died by that point in the season.
Ehhhh, Navy has a shot. Utah's probably not as impressive as that 8-4 record, and the Utes aren't very good on offense. Of course, to not be good on offense and have an 8-4 record, Utah logically has a top-tier defense statistically, and are very good against the run. Really, as with most Navy bowl games, it comes down to if the Midshipmen have the athletes to hang. And, as flawed as Utah is, I'm not so sure that they do.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Showing posts with label Navy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Navy. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Week 14 Preview: Saturday
11:00 AM
MAC Championship
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Miami of Ohio (6-6)
MAC PARITY! HOORAY! This really could go either way - MAC teams are horribly hard to predict, but I'll actually go with the underdog here. Miami of Ohio's a better team than that 6-6 record, and CMU's both scuffling a little and not really all that great.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Army (3-8) vs. Navy (7-4)
Army's bad. Navy's not! Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but yeah, Navy's far superior.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
C-USA Championship
Central Florida (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Even. Very very even. I still have some uneasiness about Tulsa after hemorrhaging yardage against Rice, a horrible team with an offense that can rack up yardage. And UCF's Kevin Smith remains a beast on the ground, so I'll call for him to have a big day in what could be a very very fun pointfest.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
ACC Championship
#6 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #22 Boston College (10-2)
Virginia Tech's been living up to their reputation lately; after being unimpressive for most of the year, they've been excellent on defense and perfectly fine on offense. BC remains a pretty good team, and not much more or less - they have a shot, but VT almost beat them at a time when the Hokies were playing much worse.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (6-5) @ Troy (8-3)
For the Sun Belt title, and rightfully so - FAU's a solid team, which goes a long way in the Sun Belt, while Troy has been the class of the league. And that last clause is the key - Troy's the class of the league, and the Trojans are at home.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
SEC Championship
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #25 Tennessee (9-3)
Someone's getting exposed! LSU's defense has slipped enough where Erik Ainge could rack up some yards, so I guess the Vols could pull off a Kentucky-esque upset, but I'm pretty skeptical - LSU should be motivated, and Tennessee's fine and all, but they're not an upper tier SEC team.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
4:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (5-6) @ Nevada (5-6)
Louisiana Tech being close to bowl eligibility just confuses and frightens me. But, well, while Louisiana Tech's fine, Nevada? Very good. Somewhat unlucky. Should win pretty easily. Offense! Should be fun.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
UCLA (6-5) @ #5 USC (9-2)
Yeah, they're not letting it happen again this year. So, I wonder who the new UCLA coach will be.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (7-4) @ Oregon (8-3)
Oregon might be the worst team in I-A until evidence to the contrary. I mean, after their game against UCLA, just wow.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#20 Brigham Young (9-2) @ San Diego State (4-7)
Yawwwwwn. BYU's easily the class of the conference, the winner of the conference always goes undefeated, SDSU's not too good, moving on...
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
California (6-5) @ Stanford (3-8)
Rivalry game, anything possible, so on and so on. Cal's sliding a little bit, but this still seems like a mismatch, as Stanford's just so far removed for...even anything approaching mediocrity.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3
North Texas (2-9) @ Florida International (0-11)
And they are every bit 0-11.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
Pittsburgh (4-7) @ #1 West Virginia (10-1)
I want to. I really really want to. But WVU is a legitimately excellent team in a season mostly devoid of them, and they're not just backing into the title game by default or anything. That said, since this is 2007, an upset would absolutely not surprise me.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Big 12 Championship
#3 Missouri (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU's almost like Clemson - they look very good most of the time, but can just implode. And much like Clemson games, that makes this almost worthless to predict. Missouri's had some games go worse than others, but their defense has only been mediocre at the worst times, and that offense has always been excellent throughout the season. I'll trust in Chase Daniel.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-6) @ #10 Arizona State (9-2)
More even than you might think, honestly. I'll call for the rivalry game upset to finally get Arizona back into a bowl - that offense is improving, and ASU's actually somewhat due for a loss to a team a level below them.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
11:30 PM
Washington (4-8) @ #16 Hawaii (11-0)
I'm buying into Hawaii, even if Washington's running game can be dangerous. It's on the island, the numbers love the Warriors, why not.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
MAC Championship
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Miami of Ohio (6-6)
MAC PARITY! HOORAY! This really could go either way - MAC teams are horribly hard to predict, but I'll actually go with the underdog here. Miami of Ohio's a better team than that 6-6 record, and CMU's both scuffling a little and not really all that great.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Army (3-8) vs. Navy (7-4)
Army's bad. Navy's not! Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but yeah, Navy's far superior.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
C-USA Championship
Central Florida (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Even. Very very even. I still have some uneasiness about Tulsa after hemorrhaging yardage against Rice, a horrible team with an offense that can rack up yardage. And UCF's Kevin Smith remains a beast on the ground, so I'll call for him to have a big day in what could be a very very fun pointfest.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
ACC Championship
#6 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #22 Boston College (10-2)
Virginia Tech's been living up to their reputation lately; after being unimpressive for most of the year, they've been excellent on defense and perfectly fine on offense. BC remains a pretty good team, and not much more or less - they have a shot, but VT almost beat them at a time when the Hokies were playing much worse.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (6-5) @ Troy (8-3)
For the Sun Belt title, and rightfully so - FAU's a solid team, which goes a long way in the Sun Belt, while Troy has been the class of the league. And that last clause is the key - Troy's the class of the league, and the Trojans are at home.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
SEC Championship
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #25 Tennessee (9-3)
Someone's getting exposed! LSU's defense has slipped enough where Erik Ainge could rack up some yards, so I guess the Vols could pull off a Kentucky-esque upset, but I'm pretty skeptical - LSU should be motivated, and Tennessee's fine and all, but they're not an upper tier SEC team.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
4:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (5-6) @ Nevada (5-6)
Louisiana Tech being close to bowl eligibility just confuses and frightens me. But, well, while Louisiana Tech's fine, Nevada? Very good. Somewhat unlucky. Should win pretty easily. Offense! Should be fun.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
UCLA (6-5) @ #5 USC (9-2)
Yeah, they're not letting it happen again this year. So, I wonder who the new UCLA coach will be.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (7-4) @ Oregon (8-3)
Oregon might be the worst team in I-A until evidence to the contrary. I mean, after their game against UCLA, just wow.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#20 Brigham Young (9-2) @ San Diego State (4-7)
Yawwwwwn. BYU's easily the class of the conference, the winner of the conference always goes undefeated, SDSU's not too good, moving on...
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
California (6-5) @ Stanford (3-8)
Rivalry game, anything possible, so on and so on. Cal's sliding a little bit, but this still seems like a mismatch, as Stanford's just so far removed for...even anything approaching mediocrity.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3
North Texas (2-9) @ Florida International (0-11)
And they are every bit 0-11.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
Pittsburgh (4-7) @ #1 West Virginia (10-1)
I want to. I really really want to. But WVU is a legitimately excellent team in a season mostly devoid of them, and they're not just backing into the title game by default or anything. That said, since this is 2007, an upset would absolutely not surprise me.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Big 12 Championship
#3 Missouri (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU's almost like Clemson - they look very good most of the time, but can just implode. And much like Clemson games, that makes this almost worthless to predict. Missouri's had some games go worse than others, but their defense has only been mediocre at the worst times, and that offense has always been excellent throughout the season. I'll trust in Chase Daniel.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-6) @ #10 Arizona State (9-2)
More even than you might think, honestly. I'll call for the rivalry game upset to finally get Arizona back into a bowl - that offense is improving, and ASU's actually somewhat due for a loss to a team a level below them.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
11:30 PM
Washington (4-8) @ #16 Hawaii (11-0)
I'm buying into Hawaii, even if Washington's running game can be dangerous. It's on the island, the numbers love the Warriors, why not.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Saturday
Sorry for the delay, things are horribly busy.
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Week 11 Recap
#23 Illinois 28, #1 Ohio State 21
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN
#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY
#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP
#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY
#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP
#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY
#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN
#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY
#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY
Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY
Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY
Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY
Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN
Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN
#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY
#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP
#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY
#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP
#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY
#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN
#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY
#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY
Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY
Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY
Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY
Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN
Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Week 10 Recap
#1 Ohio State 38, #12 Wisconsin 17
This was close through three quarters, but wow did the Buckeyes ever put it away late. Even if P.J. Hill was active for the Badgers, I'm not so sure that they would've run for more than 12 yards, their total here. In contrast, Wisconsin's suspect run D kept up things on that end, giving up 169 yards and 3 TDs to OSU's Chris Wells. An impressive win by the Buckeyes all in all, but there's really not much to say here - OSU just handily beat a pretty good team, and that defense keeps shutting down the run. Which, hoo boy, doesn't bode well for Illinois next week.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Wisconsin: STOCK STEADY
#2 LSU 41, #18 Alabama 34
Despite the close score, this was a pretty one-sided affair for LSU, as Matt Flynn's 3 picks were the only thing that kept the Tide in the game. Alabama was horrible on offense - only 20 yards rushing, and while John Parker Wilson had 234 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio, it was on a pretty awful 14 of 40 passing. I'll give them a mulligan to an extent since this is the LSU defense and all, but they're on notice.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK STEADY
#3 Oregon 35, #7 Arizona State 23
Oregon's somewhat cooled off from their blistering start, which I suppose makes sense since it's coinciding with them beating actual legitimate teams. And really, Arizona State did legitimize themselves in losing, gaining 489 yards, and Rudy Carpenter had quite a good day in defeat, completing 22 of 36 for 379 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. But, yeah, the winners. Jonathan Stewart fell just short of 100 yards (99 and a TD), so Dennis Dixon was a majority of the offense, throwing for 189 and 4 TD, and adding 57 yards on the ground. I'm really torn on Oregon - they're obviously a legitimate top-tier team, but I can't help but feel that, again, they've regressed a bit from their excellent start. But, hey, they're still a more than deserving #3.
Oregon: STOCK STEADY
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
#5 Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 14
Well, at least the TAMU offense remained fairly balanced. Of course, they didn't do much with the ball either way. Sam Bradford was a machine here, completing 70% for 284 and 5 TD. When OU's on, they can beat anyone, but I still have concern in the back of my mind going forward, since they had two games (Colorado and Iowa State) where they just played horribly. As for A&M, allow me to just sigh.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN
#6 Missouri 55, Colorado 10
Wow. Just a complete annihilation, with the Tigers outgaining CU 598-196. Chase Daniel wasn't quite spectacular, but mostly had a field day, completing 59% for 421 and a 5/1 TD/INT. And really, Daniel is a completely overlooked Heisman candidate for reasons beyond me. He's really good! But, anyway, I renounce my skepticism last week about Missouri's defense - the Tigers are easily a better team than CU, but this was a dominating performance.
Missouri: STOCK UP
Colorado: STOCK STEADY
#8 Michigan 28, Michigan State 24
A pretty even game, and my instinct is to say this reflects poorly on Michigan rather than being a reason for hope with MSU (although the Spartans are still a fine team.) Mike Hart remains, probably, the best running back in the nation when he's healthy, as he got 110 yards on just 15 carries here. The concern for me here is that Michigan State ran all over the Wolverines as well. Javon Ringer (15 car, 128 yards) and Jehuu Caulcrick (22 car, 84 yards, 2 TD) are very talented backs and all, but being unable to stop the run really doesn't bode well for Michigan's chances against OSU. I'll knock the Wolverines down a notch, but they're still in that second tier of very good teams.
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Michigan State: STOCK STEADY
#9 Florida 49, Vanderbilt 22
Tim Tebow is not of this world. His passing line was so great (22/27, 281 yards, 3/1 TD/INT) ratio, that I'm almost sad he only had 35 yards rushing. Really, if the Heisman's supposed to be for best player, with the percentage of offense that this man is worth and the level that they're playing at, Tebow's easily the guy.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Vanderbilt: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, Oregon State 3
USC can't just have a statement game that says they're back, can they? On the plus side, they held Oregon State to only 176 yards, a mark that's only seen regarding Stanford in the Pac 10. The bad news is that the offense was pretty mediocre. John David Booty had a fine day, going 19/33 for 157 and 2 TD, but that's more of a caretaker performance, and 100 yards from the rushing game isn't gonna cut it for the Trojans. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in this one, because that kind of defensive performance against any Pac 10 offense (except, again, Stanford) is impressive, and if they keep that up, they can more than struggle on offense and still win out.
USC: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Arkansas 48, #11 South Carolina 34
South Carolina allowed 541 yards rushing, so they're not worth wasting my time talking about this week past that thought. Darren McFadden had 323 yards and a TD, which hopefully means someone's fooled into taking him before the Jets' pick comes up in the draft. McFadden's a lot like Oklahoma - when he's on, he can not just beat, but pretty much destroy anyone and anything. But he has those days, like, again 61 yards against Florida International - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - and I just can't take him all that seriously. At least Colorado and Iowa State are fine teams, so Oklahoma has an excuse. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL? I feel like Jim Mora. PLAYOFFS? Anyway, I'll bump Arkansas up because I'm not an idiot and it's still an impressive performance, but general consensus may overrate McFadden to the level that I overrated South Carolina prior to this game.
Arkansas: STOCK UP
South Carolina: STOCK DOWN
#13 Penn State 26, Purdue 19
Solid game all in all for PSU. Anthony Morelli continues being perfectly fine, completing 63% for 210 and a TD, and the running game more than carried their fair share, gaining 251 yards. The Nittany Lion run defense also held serve, allowing only 68 yards. Not much to say here really - Penn State kept on doing what they've been doing.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Purdue: STOCK STEADY
#14 California 20, Washington State 17
More bad news than good for Cal, since it was a mostly even game, both in scoring and yardage. Still, at least the Bears held Wazzou QB Alex Brink under 50% passing. Cal's still the easy #4 team in the Pac 10, the gap just got a little bit wider between them and #3.
California: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati 38, #15 South Florida 33
Hoo mama. Well, firstly, Matt Grothe had 457 total yards out of USF's 481. And really, Grothe outperforming Cincy by his lonesome shows the luck that Cincinnati needed for this to happen. Even though one could say that Cincy scoring off of a pick six and a punt block were negated by a pick six and return TD from South Florida, USF also turned it over a fairly insane eight times. EIGHT turnovers? What is this, Southern Miss against Rice. Really, this is the kind of fluke occurrence that doesn't really hurt my opinion of the Bulls going forward. Meanwhile, if this is a sign that Cincy's going to reviver their insane positive turnover margin games, then, well, I fear for UConn.
Cincinnati: STOCK STEADY
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida State 27, #16 Boston College 17
Matt Ryan tried his 49% completion percentage magic again, but it wasn't enough in what was an even game yardage-wise. Drew Weatherford played like Matt Ryan on one of his better days, going 29/45 for 354 and 2 TD, and while FSU RB Antone Smith's 63 yards may not seem like much, it matched BC's total output on the ground. I'll knock BC down a bit just because they finally lost, and are no longer an obvious #1 in the ACC, whatever that was worth. The conference remains a crapshoot.
Florida State: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#17 Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
SHOOTOUT! Both QBs completed over 70% of their passes, but with drastically different results - OK State's Zac Robinson had 430 yards and 2 TD, while Colt McCoy only had 282 and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Of course, there's also the running game, where McCoy had 106 yards, 3 more than leading OK State rusher Dantrell Savage. And starting Texas RB Jamaal Charles added 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Texas is no Nebraska or anything, they're flawed on defense, and with McCoy's erratic play, they're just a shaky, shaky team. And OK State's more or less the same thing, except more consistent and at a slightly lower level.
Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#19 Georgia 44, Troy 34
Troy actually outgained UGA here, but had 4 turnovers to the Bulldogs' 3. The Trojans' Omar Hougabook also arguably won the QB battle over Matt Stafford (64%, 310, 2/2 vs. 59%, 217, 2/1), but Troy couldn't match the Georgia running game, as Knowshon Moreno had 196 yards and 3 TD. I'll put both teams up a notch - Moreno seems to be a consistent upper-level back, and Troy hung with the Bulldogs despite that.
Georgia: STOCK UP
Troy: STOCK UP
#21 Kansas 76, Nebraska 39
Weird to see, but absolutely not shocking. If anything, with a score like this, I'm surprised Kansas only had 582 yards. I'll just put KU QB Todd Reesing's line here for posterity: 30/41, 354 yards, 6 TD. The Huskers D just keeps reaching new levels of ineptitude, and it's almost a shame that this keeps Kansas as a relative unknown. An impressive one, but still.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
#22 Illinois 44, Minnesota 17
Normally I'd make a remark about Minnesota allowing 448 yards rushing, but between South Carolina and Nebraska, I'll just sigh, perhaps chuckle, and move on.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN
#23 Auburn 35, Tennessee Tech 3
Only 115 yards rushing for Auburn is probably a bad sign, but hey, Brandon Cox completed over 80%. Good for him!
Auburn: STOCK STEADY
#24 Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Just a straight up whoopin', as GT's quietly been eliminated from ACC Coastal contention. Sean Glennon actually completed 69%, and the Hokies defense just pretty much neutralized the Yellow Jackets. A pretty impressive win for the Hokies, one that they very much needed.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
#25 Connecticut 38, Rutgers 19
UConn got lucky here, though to less of an extent than they have in recent upset wins. Tyler Lorenzen pulled a Matt Ryan Special, completing only 48% but getting 2 TDs in a Huskies win. But the real star of the show was ex-starting RB Donald Brown, who had 154 yards and a TD when forced into action. Brown's resurgence plus, if he's healthy, Andre Dixon, gives the Huskies a duo not seen since...well, Caulley and Brockington two years ago. Rutgers remains a good team, the intrigue it to see if UConn can keep up their Wake Forest act going on the road, as they head to Cincinnati next week.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Arizona 34, UCLA 27
Ugh, and it really shouldn't have been this close. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama didn't have a high-percentage day (58%), but with 341 yards and 3 TD, nobody's complaining. UCLA's slowly going from funny to just kind of sad, like a choking cat.
Arizona: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
East Carolina 56, Memphis 40
CRAZY MID-MAJOR RUNNING BACK OF THE WEEK: ECU's Chris Johnson, who had 301 yards and 4 touchdowns on 20 carries. And hey, Memphis QB Martin Hankins had 416 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 57% passing. I'll give ECU a bump up since they seem to have a legitimate weapon.
East Carolina: STOCK UP
Memphis: STOCK STEADY
NC State 19, Miami 16 (OT)
Canes Slot Machine/QB Kirby Freeman had the most amazing line in recent memory: 1/14, 84 yards, 1/3 TD/INT. I guess he hit three 7's one time and got an 84 yard TD out of it, while the rest were like "Cherry....ANOTHER CHERRY!....awwww, NC State defender." And yet it still only went to OT.
NC State: STOCK DOWN
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi 38, Northwestern State 31
Ole Miss got outplayed by a I-AA team, and not a particularly good one. After a surprisingly good start, statistically if not record-wise, it looks like the Rebels have given up on winning and are focusing on beating out Syracuse for the title of "worst BCS conference team."
Mississippi: STOCK DOWN
Navy 46, Notre Dame 44 (3 OT)
Charlie Weis is an idiot for not going for the game-winning field goal, that jumping sack by that one Navy defender was AWESOME, and Notre Dame may go 1-11. A fun time.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
TCU 37, New Mexico 0
An insanely dominating performance, as the TCU defense held one of the MWC's better teams to only 119 yards. Just...wow, the best performance in any conference game by a Mountain West team this year. If TCU can follow this up, this could be an immensely entertaining path of rage.
TCU: STOCK UP
New Mexico: STOCK DOWN
Rice 56, UTEP 48
A LEGITIMATE WIN FOR RICE!
Rice: STOCK UP
UTEP: STOCK DOWN
This was close through three quarters, but wow did the Buckeyes ever put it away late. Even if P.J. Hill was active for the Badgers, I'm not so sure that they would've run for more than 12 yards, their total here. In contrast, Wisconsin's suspect run D kept up things on that end, giving up 169 yards and 3 TDs to OSU's Chris Wells. An impressive win by the Buckeyes all in all, but there's really not much to say here - OSU just handily beat a pretty good team, and that defense keeps shutting down the run. Which, hoo boy, doesn't bode well for Illinois next week.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Wisconsin: STOCK STEADY
#2 LSU 41, #18 Alabama 34
Despite the close score, this was a pretty one-sided affair for LSU, as Matt Flynn's 3 picks were the only thing that kept the Tide in the game. Alabama was horrible on offense - only 20 yards rushing, and while John Parker Wilson had 234 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio, it was on a pretty awful 14 of 40 passing. I'll give them a mulligan to an extent since this is the LSU defense and all, but they're on notice.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK STEADY
#3 Oregon 35, #7 Arizona State 23
Oregon's somewhat cooled off from their blistering start, which I suppose makes sense since it's coinciding with them beating actual legitimate teams. And really, Arizona State did legitimize themselves in losing, gaining 489 yards, and Rudy Carpenter had quite a good day in defeat, completing 22 of 36 for 379 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. But, yeah, the winners. Jonathan Stewart fell just short of 100 yards (99 and a TD), so Dennis Dixon was a majority of the offense, throwing for 189 and 4 TD, and adding 57 yards on the ground. I'm really torn on Oregon - they're obviously a legitimate top-tier team, but I can't help but feel that, again, they've regressed a bit from their excellent start. But, hey, they're still a more than deserving #3.
Oregon: STOCK STEADY
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
#5 Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 14
Well, at least the TAMU offense remained fairly balanced. Of course, they didn't do much with the ball either way. Sam Bradford was a machine here, completing 70% for 284 and 5 TD. When OU's on, they can beat anyone, but I still have concern in the back of my mind going forward, since they had two games (Colorado and Iowa State) where they just played horribly. As for A&M, allow me to just sigh.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN
#6 Missouri 55, Colorado 10
Wow. Just a complete annihilation, with the Tigers outgaining CU 598-196. Chase Daniel wasn't quite spectacular, but mostly had a field day, completing 59% for 421 and a 5/1 TD/INT. And really, Daniel is a completely overlooked Heisman candidate for reasons beyond me. He's really good! But, anyway, I renounce my skepticism last week about Missouri's defense - the Tigers are easily a better team than CU, but this was a dominating performance.
Missouri: STOCK UP
Colorado: STOCK STEADY
#8 Michigan 28, Michigan State 24
A pretty even game, and my instinct is to say this reflects poorly on Michigan rather than being a reason for hope with MSU (although the Spartans are still a fine team.) Mike Hart remains, probably, the best running back in the nation when he's healthy, as he got 110 yards on just 15 carries here. The concern for me here is that Michigan State ran all over the Wolverines as well. Javon Ringer (15 car, 128 yards) and Jehuu Caulcrick (22 car, 84 yards, 2 TD) are very talented backs and all, but being unable to stop the run really doesn't bode well for Michigan's chances against OSU. I'll knock the Wolverines down a notch, but they're still in that second tier of very good teams.
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Michigan State: STOCK STEADY
#9 Florida 49, Vanderbilt 22
Tim Tebow is not of this world. His passing line was so great (22/27, 281 yards, 3/1 TD/INT) ratio, that I'm almost sad he only had 35 yards rushing. Really, if the Heisman's supposed to be for best player, with the percentage of offense that this man is worth and the level that they're playing at, Tebow's easily the guy.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Vanderbilt: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, Oregon State 3
USC can't just have a statement game that says they're back, can they? On the plus side, they held Oregon State to only 176 yards, a mark that's only seen regarding Stanford in the Pac 10. The bad news is that the offense was pretty mediocre. John David Booty had a fine day, going 19/33 for 157 and 2 TD, but that's more of a caretaker performance, and 100 yards from the rushing game isn't gonna cut it for the Trojans. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in this one, because that kind of defensive performance against any Pac 10 offense (except, again, Stanford) is impressive, and if they keep that up, they can more than struggle on offense and still win out.
USC: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Arkansas 48, #11 South Carolina 34
South Carolina allowed 541 yards rushing, so they're not worth wasting my time talking about this week past that thought. Darren McFadden had 323 yards and a TD, which hopefully means someone's fooled into taking him before the Jets' pick comes up in the draft. McFadden's a lot like Oklahoma - when he's on, he can not just beat, but pretty much destroy anyone and anything. But he has those days, like, again 61 yards against Florida International - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - and I just can't take him all that seriously. At least Colorado and Iowa State are fine teams, so Oklahoma has an excuse. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL? I feel like Jim Mora. PLAYOFFS? Anyway, I'll bump Arkansas up because I'm not an idiot and it's still an impressive performance, but general consensus may overrate McFadden to the level that I overrated South Carolina prior to this game.
Arkansas: STOCK UP
South Carolina: STOCK DOWN
#13 Penn State 26, Purdue 19
Solid game all in all for PSU. Anthony Morelli continues being perfectly fine, completing 63% for 210 and a TD, and the running game more than carried their fair share, gaining 251 yards. The Nittany Lion run defense also held serve, allowing only 68 yards. Not much to say here really - Penn State kept on doing what they've been doing.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Purdue: STOCK STEADY
#14 California 20, Washington State 17
More bad news than good for Cal, since it was a mostly even game, both in scoring and yardage. Still, at least the Bears held Wazzou QB Alex Brink under 50% passing. Cal's still the easy #4 team in the Pac 10, the gap just got a little bit wider between them and #3.
California: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati 38, #15 South Florida 33
Hoo mama. Well, firstly, Matt Grothe had 457 total yards out of USF's 481. And really, Grothe outperforming Cincy by his lonesome shows the luck that Cincinnati needed for this to happen. Even though one could say that Cincy scoring off of a pick six and a punt block were negated by a pick six and return TD from South Florida, USF also turned it over a fairly insane eight times. EIGHT turnovers? What is this, Southern Miss against Rice. Really, this is the kind of fluke occurrence that doesn't really hurt my opinion of the Bulls going forward. Meanwhile, if this is a sign that Cincy's going to reviver their insane positive turnover margin games, then, well, I fear for UConn.
Cincinnati: STOCK STEADY
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida State 27, #16 Boston College 17
Matt Ryan tried his 49% completion percentage magic again, but it wasn't enough in what was an even game yardage-wise. Drew Weatherford played like Matt Ryan on one of his better days, going 29/45 for 354 and 2 TD, and while FSU RB Antone Smith's 63 yards may not seem like much, it matched BC's total output on the ground. I'll knock BC down a bit just because they finally lost, and are no longer an obvious #1 in the ACC, whatever that was worth. The conference remains a crapshoot.
Florida State: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#17 Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
SHOOTOUT! Both QBs completed over 70% of their passes, but with drastically different results - OK State's Zac Robinson had 430 yards and 2 TD, while Colt McCoy only had 282 and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Of course, there's also the running game, where McCoy had 106 yards, 3 more than leading OK State rusher Dantrell Savage. And starting Texas RB Jamaal Charles added 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Texas is no Nebraska or anything, they're flawed on defense, and with McCoy's erratic play, they're just a shaky, shaky team. And OK State's more or less the same thing, except more consistent and at a slightly lower level.
Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#19 Georgia 44, Troy 34
Troy actually outgained UGA here, but had 4 turnovers to the Bulldogs' 3. The Trojans' Omar Hougabook also arguably won the QB battle over Matt Stafford (64%, 310, 2/2 vs. 59%, 217, 2/1), but Troy couldn't match the Georgia running game, as Knowshon Moreno had 196 yards and 3 TD. I'll put both teams up a notch - Moreno seems to be a consistent upper-level back, and Troy hung with the Bulldogs despite that.
Georgia: STOCK UP
Troy: STOCK UP
#21 Kansas 76, Nebraska 39
Weird to see, but absolutely not shocking. If anything, with a score like this, I'm surprised Kansas only had 582 yards. I'll just put KU QB Todd Reesing's line here for posterity: 30/41, 354 yards, 6 TD. The Huskers D just keeps reaching new levels of ineptitude, and it's almost a shame that this keeps Kansas as a relative unknown. An impressive one, but still.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
#22 Illinois 44, Minnesota 17
Normally I'd make a remark about Minnesota allowing 448 yards rushing, but between South Carolina and Nebraska, I'll just sigh, perhaps chuckle, and move on.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN
#23 Auburn 35, Tennessee Tech 3
Only 115 yards rushing for Auburn is probably a bad sign, but hey, Brandon Cox completed over 80%. Good for him!
Auburn: STOCK STEADY
#24 Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Just a straight up whoopin', as GT's quietly been eliminated from ACC Coastal contention. Sean Glennon actually completed 69%, and the Hokies defense just pretty much neutralized the Yellow Jackets. A pretty impressive win for the Hokies, one that they very much needed.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
#25 Connecticut 38, Rutgers 19
UConn got lucky here, though to less of an extent than they have in recent upset wins. Tyler Lorenzen pulled a Matt Ryan Special, completing only 48% but getting 2 TDs in a Huskies win. But the real star of the show was ex-starting RB Donald Brown, who had 154 yards and a TD when forced into action. Brown's resurgence plus, if he's healthy, Andre Dixon, gives the Huskies a duo not seen since...well, Caulley and Brockington two years ago. Rutgers remains a good team, the intrigue it to see if UConn can keep up their Wake Forest act going on the road, as they head to Cincinnati next week.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Arizona 34, UCLA 27
Ugh, and it really shouldn't have been this close. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama didn't have a high-percentage day (58%), but with 341 yards and 3 TD, nobody's complaining. UCLA's slowly going from funny to just kind of sad, like a choking cat.
Arizona: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
East Carolina 56, Memphis 40
CRAZY MID-MAJOR RUNNING BACK OF THE WEEK: ECU's Chris Johnson, who had 301 yards and 4 touchdowns on 20 carries. And hey, Memphis QB Martin Hankins had 416 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 57% passing. I'll give ECU a bump up since they seem to have a legitimate weapon.
East Carolina: STOCK UP
Memphis: STOCK STEADY
NC State 19, Miami 16 (OT)
Canes Slot Machine/QB Kirby Freeman had the most amazing line in recent memory: 1/14, 84 yards, 1/3 TD/INT. I guess he hit three 7's one time and got an 84 yard TD out of it, while the rest were like "Cherry....ANOTHER CHERRY!....awwww, NC State defender." And yet it still only went to OT.
NC State: STOCK DOWN
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi 38, Northwestern State 31
Ole Miss got outplayed by a I-AA team, and not a particularly good one. After a surprisingly good start, statistically if not record-wise, it looks like the Rebels have given up on winning and are focusing on beating out Syracuse for the title of "worst BCS conference team."
Mississippi: STOCK DOWN
Navy 46, Notre Dame 44 (3 OT)
Charlie Weis is an idiot for not going for the game-winning field goal, that jumping sack by that one Navy defender was AWESOME, and Notre Dame may go 1-11. A fun time.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
TCU 37, New Mexico 0
An insanely dominating performance, as the TCU defense held one of the MWC's better teams to only 119 yards. Just...wow, the best performance in any conference game by a Mountain West team this year. If TCU can follow this up, this could be an immensely entertaining path of rage.
TCU: STOCK UP
New Mexico: STOCK DOWN
Rice 56, UTEP 48
A LEGITIMATE WIN FOR RICE!
Rice: STOCK UP
UTEP: STOCK DOWN
Friday, November 02, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Saturday and Sunday
Okay, I think I made it through this week. I seem to be in one piece, yes.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Monday, October 22, 2007
Week 9 Preview
I'm in the pre-training phase for my first job out of college, and have a whole lot of reading/assorted work to do, so I'm getting this all out of the way so I can be productive during the week. Pray nobody gets injured so my thoughts remain relevant.
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#18 Boston College (7-0) @ #22 Virginia Tech (6-1)
Well. BC isn't really all that great, but then again, VT hasn't showed much of anything either except against the Dukes of the world. Still, I mean, come on. It's an undefeated team. On a Thursday. On the road. In a game that could very well be an upset. In 2007. Duh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
9:00 PM
Air Force (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-2)
UNM seems to be the favorite in the Mountain West at the moment, and Air Force has gotten a bit lucky in a few of their conference wins. I expect things to even out somewhat here, even if the craziness continuing wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
9:00 PM
Boise State (6-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
A bit of a close one. Boise seems to easily be the best team in the WAC, but it doesn't seem like a huge difference or them being a tier above. Still, while Fresno is much closer to their pre-2006 level than their implosion last year, they haven't really broken out from the WAC pack. An upset's possible, but Boise's the class of the conference until proven otherwise.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#4 West Virginia (6-1) @ #24 Rutgers (5-2)
West Virginia's done a pretty good job shutting down the run, though Ray Rice is admittedly the best back they've faced yet. Still, Rutgers needs to be at the top of their game to have a chance against the Mountaineers, and Mike Teel's spottiness doesn't have me completely convinced yet. The Mountaineers should be able to put up points here, though if fumbilitis strikes the team like it did versus USF, Rutgers can obviously win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Indiana (5-3) @ #16 Wisconsin (6-2)
An intriguing one. Indiana isn't especially known for its running game, but if Wisconsin's run defense holds to its poor form, the Hoosiers backs plus their great QB, Kellen Lewis, may be too much for the Badgers to handle. Still, the same can be said the other way around - Wisconsin has a very good QB in Tyler Donovan, and running back P.J. Hill's probably the best player on either team. This could, and frankly probably should, be an exceedingly close game, but I'll give the nod to the proven home team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
Ball State (5-3) @ #20 Illinois (5-3)
Ball State's been good in spots, but come on now. The Cardinals offense may be able to do something, but I don't see them stopping Illinois from running it often and running it for many scores.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 4
Colorado (4-4) @ Texas Tech (6-2)
Colorado stopped the Oklahoma offense, so I guess anything's possible. Plus Cody Hawkins is a bit of a gunslinger, so the Buffaloes actually have a chance if this goes into a shootout. Still, Texas Tech's been mostly on point this year, and I see no reason to pick against them.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (5-3) @ Iowa (3-5)
Iowa turned back into a pumpkin against Purdue, but the Hawkeyes remain a looming threat. They shut down Illinois's run game and forced them to rely on a QB that can't win a game by his lonesome. The same thing could well happen here. That said, Brian Hoyer's probably better than either of the Illinois quarterbacks, and Iowa's offense was bad enough themselves that they only won thanks to a horrible game-ending interception. The Hawkeyes can win, but if they also can lose if their gameplan works, I'm not picking them.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (3-4) @ Louisville (4-4)
It says something about how far Louisville's fallen when this game has intrigue. It says something more when I find myself picking Pittsburgh. I'm not sure the Pitt defense can completely stop Louisville, but the Panthers looked like a new team against Cincinnati with LaRod Stephens-Howling back. It almost reminds me of a team they played close and a team I just discussed, Michigan State, in that their two star running backs can carry the load while complementing a QB that, while solid, isn't a game-changer. Of course, since Pitt QB Pat Bostick is a freshman, that may also have to be changed to "isn't a game changer YET." Plus, really, you don't have to be a game-changer against Louisville's D, sometimes they'll just let you have some yards after catch. So, yes, I'm picking Pitt to pull off the somewhat shocking upset. Although, of course, watch Louisville go nuts and win 49-10.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (2-5) @ Wake Forest (5-2)
Wake's a fine team, which, in the ACC, will give you a 5-2 record. UNC's surprisingly good, much better than their record - they could've very well beaten South Carolina and Virginia Tech. While I'm not in love with Heels QB TJ Yates's 10/10 TD/INT ratio, parity tends to reign in the ACC and UNC is probably at Wake's level.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
Northwestern (5-3) @ Purdue (6-2)
Oh mama, this could be a fun shootout. This SHOULD be a fun shootout. Purdue has the more talented horses so I'll give them the edge at home, but Northwestern could win this very easily.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (4-4) @ #12 Kentucky (6-2)
It'd take the conflation of MSU being at the top of their game and Kentucky playing the worst they have all year in order for the Bulldogs to win this. I mean, it could happen, but Kentucky on a bad night by their standards this year (if they've even had one?) should put enough points to win this.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Akron (3-4) @ Buffalo (3-5)
Buffalo played well against Syracuse, even if they lost. Akron hasn't been all that impressive, and I am nothing if not irrationally on the Buffalo bandwagon at the moment. Even if they were UConn's rivalry game in NCAA Football for some reason for quite a few years.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Central Michigan (4-4) @ Kent State (3-5)
CMU looked to have gotten its act together, and I realize Clemson is a cut about the MAC, but wow, that was a whoopin'. Kent State's been somewhat unlucky in close games, so I'll call for things to even out here at home.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Delaware @ Navy (4-3)
Delaware's typically a pretty good I-AA, so they're probably good enough to do well against the suspect Navy D. But, hey, if I didn't pick North Dakota State vs. Minnesota, I'm not picking Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Iowa State (1-7) @ #8 Missouri (6-1)
Iowa State's been somewhat unlucky on the year, but come on now. If Missouri shut down the Texas Tech offense, this'll be ugly early and often.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-7) @ Arkansas (4-3)
FIU's the worst team in I-A, fairly easily. Way to schedule tough, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Miami of Ohio (4-4) @ Vanderbilt (4-3)
Miami's a dangerous MAC team, but I'm on the Vandy bandwagon after their win over South Carolina, where they finally played up to my preseason expectation. I'm on the VANDwagon, ha ha ha. God that was horrible.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 3
UNLV (2-6) @ Wyoming (4-3)
The Mountain West is so filled with parity, who knows. Two teams that probably deserved to win last week, but I'd say Wyoming's closer to the top of the conference while UNLV's near the bottom. And the Cowboys are at home, so there.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
#6 USC (6-1) @ #3 Oregon (6-1)
Oh boy, this one'll be fun. While USC's obviously a top-flight team, they really haven't had much of a schedule thus far, with the best team they've beaten being...god, Nebraska. Thus, while the stats say USC has the better defense by far, it's hard to tell how good the unit is when they've been playing Evan Sharpley. Then again, the inverse is somewhat true, as Oregon hasn't faced much of a defense all year, outside of Michigan who, well, you know, spread offense. Oh, what the hell, I'll go with the Ducks - their offense has been nuts week in week out, while USC's had the lapse against Arizona.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Arizona (2-6) @ Washington (2-5)
Hard one to pick. Arizona's had a bit of hard luck, and that new offense seems to be taking somewhat. But Washington's also a fine enough team to win games like this, even if the shine's somewhat off from their big 2-0 start. UA's luck could even out here, or Jake Locker's mini-Tebow impression could lead the Huskies to a win. I'll go with the former based mostly on gut feeling.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Memphis (3-4) @ Tulane (2-5)
It's a Tulane game, so I have to say, MAN. MATT FORTE'S REALLY GOOD. Memphis has been decent but unimpressive, so I'll actually call for Forte to lead the way to a minor upset.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
SMU (1-6) @ Tulsa (4-3)
SMU is bad! Tulsa will put up very many yards and have a victorious day!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ Utah State (0-7)
USU's probably gotta win a game sometime this year, but Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive and should be better than that record.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#5 Florida (5-2) @ #23 Georgia (5-2)
Well, Georgia's better than Auburn, so I suppose the Bulldogs have a shot. Still, they haven't been playing all that great lately, so I expect Florida to win this handily. If Georgia wasn't a running team, I'd give them more of a shot, but Florida's secondary is their weakness, and they've actually done a pretty good job controlling things on the ground.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Minnesota (1-7) @ #10 Michigan (6-2)
Oh come on now.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
#13 South Florida (6-1) @ Connecticut (6-1)
I am so close to doing it, but I won't. UConn neutralized Brian Brohm and all, but...no, no, I can't. Not two weeks in a row. Even if USF hasn't really shown an ability to run it yet. Oh, oh, maybe I could...oh, no.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Nebraska (4-4) @ #14 Texas (6-2)
Whether this will be a step up from Texas's wins over Baylor and Iowa State remains inconclusive.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
Clemson (5-2) @ Maryland (4-3)
Picking Clemson games seems beyond rhyme or reason. On a good day, they can beat anyone in the conference. On a bad day, they can lose to pretty much anyone short of Duke. I'll say that the Tigers have turned the corner after smacking the crap out of Central Michigan, but really, who knows.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (2-5) @ East Carolina (4-4)
Meh. UAB's more competitive than expected, but I wouldn't even call them mediocre within the conference. ECU's perfectly fine, nothing more, nothing less, and that should be enough against this team at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-5) @ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
WMU's been horribly disappointing. Eastern Michigan's been horrible.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Baylor (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
Baylor's not wholly awful, but they're easily the worst team in the Big 12. KSU's not at the level where this is a guaranteed win just yet, but it's pretty close.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (2-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-3)
ULM's been getting their act together after an awful start, but FAU's still one of the top Sun Belt teams until further notice.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Idaho (1-7) @ Nevada (3-4)
Nevada might be the #3 team in the WAC. They've been smacking the crap out of some teams with the Pistol offense, and this should be no exception.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
#25 Virginia (7-1) @ NC State (2-5)
I know I ranked UVA and all, but this screams of an upset to even things out. UVA's not as good as that record, NC State's not as bad as theirs. If the Wolfpack cutting down on turnovers (yes, 2 counts) last week signals the start of a trend, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
Rice (1-6) @ Marshall (0-7)
If Marshall doesn't get on the board here, they might as well give up. They're not THAT bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
Utah (5-3) @ Colorado State (1-6)
Meh. CSU didn't look all that impressive against UNLV in their first win of the year. Utah seems to have gotten their act together, so I'll go with the hot hand.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Mississippi (2-6) @ Auburn (5-3)
Brandon Cox has shown legitimate improvement. Unless he regresses horribly, this should be a definitive win at worst.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Ohio (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-3)
BGSU's been playing beter of the two as of late. That means nothing given the MAC, but still.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Stanford (3-4) @ Oregon State (4-3)
Stanford showed some legitimate improvement in beating Arizona, so they have a shot here. Still, Oregon State seems to be picking up steam as the season goes on.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington State (2-5)
I honestly have no rationale behind this pick except that it's UCLA, and this almost has to happen.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#21 Kansas (7-0) @ Texas A&M (6-2)
A&M's a perfectly above average team that can beat a whole bunch of teams unless the matchup presents a problem, such as Texas Tech's wacky offense and Miami's stout run defense. Kansas really presents no such problem - they're just pretty good overall. And, hey, A&M is too, and they're at home and might be better.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Troy (5-2) @ Arkansas State (3-4)
Given Arkansas State's implosion last week, there's almost no way I can pick them.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Middle Tennessee State (3-5) @ North Texas (1-6)
There's always the shot UNT puts up enough yardage to be a threat, but I'm not gonna pick it here. MTSU looks to be a perfectly fine Sun Belt team, which is more than the Mean Green is.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-7) @ Toledo (3-5)
NIU's awful. Awful bad. Awful awful.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#11 South Carolina (6-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
The Vols have a shot - SC's far from an unbeatable team, as Vandy obviously showed. Still, I can't help but think that Carolina will exploit that Tennessee secondary and bad. Plus, c'mon, it's Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#1 Ohio State (8-0) @ #15 Penn State (6-2)
Oh no, this could get real ugly. OSU shuts down the run almost completely, which leaves the Nittany Lions to rely on...Anthony Morelli. He's improved, but, um, well, no.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-6) @ Florida State (4-3)
Duke has a shot. No way I'm pickin' em, but Duke has a shot.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Houston (4-3) @ UTEP (4-3)
UTEP's fairly lucky to have that record. Houston's offensive firepower seems to be back at full speed, so that'll be trouble for the Miners.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
9:30 PM
Brigham Young (5-2) @ San Diego State (2-5)
BYU's good! SDSU, not so much.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#17 California (5-2) @ #9 Arizona State (7-0)
Y'know, Arizona State's defense hasn't been half bad. That said, this'll be the best offense they've faced. Really, this is a pick em - it'll probably turn into a Pac 10tastic shootout that either team can win. Still, if one team lays the beat down, I'd lean towards it being Arizona State, as the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home in recent years.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
New Mexico State (4-4) @ Hawaii (7-0)
The crap teams of the WAC have been taking their best shot and coming very close to knocking off Hawaii. I realize this is at Aloha Stadium and all, but New Mexico State is almost definitely the best of those crap teams.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Central Florida (4-3) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's run defense isn't especially great, so I expect UCF's Kevin Smith to continue his torrid pace. Then again, USM's a running team too, and UCF's run defense is about as mediocre as USM's. Oh, who knows, I'll just go with my first instinct.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#18 Boston College (7-0) @ #22 Virginia Tech (6-1)
Well. BC isn't really all that great, but then again, VT hasn't showed much of anything either except against the Dukes of the world. Still, I mean, come on. It's an undefeated team. On a Thursday. On the road. In a game that could very well be an upset. In 2007. Duh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
9:00 PM
Air Force (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-2)
UNM seems to be the favorite in the Mountain West at the moment, and Air Force has gotten a bit lucky in a few of their conference wins. I expect things to even out somewhat here, even if the craziness continuing wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
9:00 PM
Boise State (6-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
A bit of a close one. Boise seems to easily be the best team in the WAC, but it doesn't seem like a huge difference or them being a tier above. Still, while Fresno is much closer to their pre-2006 level than their implosion last year, they haven't really broken out from the WAC pack. An upset's possible, but Boise's the class of the conference until proven otherwise.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#4 West Virginia (6-1) @ #24 Rutgers (5-2)
West Virginia's done a pretty good job shutting down the run, though Ray Rice is admittedly the best back they've faced yet. Still, Rutgers needs to be at the top of their game to have a chance against the Mountaineers, and Mike Teel's spottiness doesn't have me completely convinced yet. The Mountaineers should be able to put up points here, though if fumbilitis strikes the team like it did versus USF, Rutgers can obviously win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Indiana (5-3) @ #16 Wisconsin (6-2)
An intriguing one. Indiana isn't especially known for its running game, but if Wisconsin's run defense holds to its poor form, the Hoosiers backs plus their great QB, Kellen Lewis, may be too much for the Badgers to handle. Still, the same can be said the other way around - Wisconsin has a very good QB in Tyler Donovan, and running back P.J. Hill's probably the best player on either team. This could, and frankly probably should, be an exceedingly close game, but I'll give the nod to the proven home team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
Ball State (5-3) @ #20 Illinois (5-3)
Ball State's been good in spots, but come on now. The Cardinals offense may be able to do something, but I don't see them stopping Illinois from running it often and running it for many scores.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 4
Colorado (4-4) @ Texas Tech (6-2)
Colorado stopped the Oklahoma offense, so I guess anything's possible. Plus Cody Hawkins is a bit of a gunslinger, so the Buffaloes actually have a chance if this goes into a shootout. Still, Texas Tech's been mostly on point this year, and I see no reason to pick against them.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (5-3) @ Iowa (3-5)
Iowa turned back into a pumpkin against Purdue, but the Hawkeyes remain a looming threat. They shut down Illinois's run game and forced them to rely on a QB that can't win a game by his lonesome. The same thing could well happen here. That said, Brian Hoyer's probably better than either of the Illinois quarterbacks, and Iowa's offense was bad enough themselves that they only won thanks to a horrible game-ending interception. The Hawkeyes can win, but if they also can lose if their gameplan works, I'm not picking them.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (3-4) @ Louisville (4-4)
It says something about how far Louisville's fallen when this game has intrigue. It says something more when I find myself picking Pittsburgh. I'm not sure the Pitt defense can completely stop Louisville, but the Panthers looked like a new team against Cincinnati with LaRod Stephens-Howling back. It almost reminds me of a team they played close and a team I just discussed, Michigan State, in that their two star running backs can carry the load while complementing a QB that, while solid, isn't a game-changer. Of course, since Pitt QB Pat Bostick is a freshman, that may also have to be changed to "isn't a game changer YET." Plus, really, you don't have to be a game-changer against Louisville's D, sometimes they'll just let you have some yards after catch. So, yes, I'm picking Pitt to pull off the somewhat shocking upset. Although, of course, watch Louisville go nuts and win 49-10.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (2-5) @ Wake Forest (5-2)
Wake's a fine team, which, in the ACC, will give you a 5-2 record. UNC's surprisingly good, much better than their record - they could've very well beaten South Carolina and Virginia Tech. While I'm not in love with Heels QB TJ Yates's 10/10 TD/INT ratio, parity tends to reign in the ACC and UNC is probably at Wake's level.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
Northwestern (5-3) @ Purdue (6-2)
Oh mama, this could be a fun shootout. This SHOULD be a fun shootout. Purdue has the more talented horses so I'll give them the edge at home, but Northwestern could win this very easily.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (4-4) @ #12 Kentucky (6-2)
It'd take the conflation of MSU being at the top of their game and Kentucky playing the worst they have all year in order for the Bulldogs to win this. I mean, it could happen, but Kentucky on a bad night by their standards this year (if they've even had one?) should put enough points to win this.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Akron (3-4) @ Buffalo (3-5)
Buffalo played well against Syracuse, even if they lost. Akron hasn't been all that impressive, and I am nothing if not irrationally on the Buffalo bandwagon at the moment. Even if they were UConn's rivalry game in NCAA Football for some reason for quite a few years.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Central Michigan (4-4) @ Kent State (3-5)
CMU looked to have gotten its act together, and I realize Clemson is a cut about the MAC, but wow, that was a whoopin'. Kent State's been somewhat unlucky in close games, so I'll call for things to even out here at home.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Delaware @ Navy (4-3)
Delaware's typically a pretty good I-AA, so they're probably good enough to do well against the suspect Navy D. But, hey, if I didn't pick North Dakota State vs. Minnesota, I'm not picking Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Iowa State (1-7) @ #8 Missouri (6-1)
Iowa State's been somewhat unlucky on the year, but come on now. If Missouri shut down the Texas Tech offense, this'll be ugly early and often.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-7) @ Arkansas (4-3)
FIU's the worst team in I-A, fairly easily. Way to schedule tough, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Miami of Ohio (4-4) @ Vanderbilt (4-3)
Miami's a dangerous MAC team, but I'm on the Vandy bandwagon after their win over South Carolina, where they finally played up to my preseason expectation. I'm on the VANDwagon, ha ha ha. God that was horrible.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 3
UNLV (2-6) @ Wyoming (4-3)
The Mountain West is so filled with parity, who knows. Two teams that probably deserved to win last week, but I'd say Wyoming's closer to the top of the conference while UNLV's near the bottom. And the Cowboys are at home, so there.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
#6 USC (6-1) @ #3 Oregon (6-1)
Oh boy, this one'll be fun. While USC's obviously a top-flight team, they really haven't had much of a schedule thus far, with the best team they've beaten being...god, Nebraska. Thus, while the stats say USC has the better defense by far, it's hard to tell how good the unit is when they've been playing Evan Sharpley. Then again, the inverse is somewhat true, as Oregon hasn't faced much of a defense all year, outside of Michigan who, well, you know, spread offense. Oh, what the hell, I'll go with the Ducks - their offense has been nuts week in week out, while USC's had the lapse against Arizona.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Arizona (2-6) @ Washington (2-5)
Hard one to pick. Arizona's had a bit of hard luck, and that new offense seems to be taking somewhat. But Washington's also a fine enough team to win games like this, even if the shine's somewhat off from their big 2-0 start. UA's luck could even out here, or Jake Locker's mini-Tebow impression could lead the Huskies to a win. I'll go with the former based mostly on gut feeling.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Memphis (3-4) @ Tulane (2-5)
It's a Tulane game, so I have to say, MAN. MATT FORTE'S REALLY GOOD. Memphis has been decent but unimpressive, so I'll actually call for Forte to lead the way to a minor upset.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
SMU (1-6) @ Tulsa (4-3)
SMU is bad! Tulsa will put up very many yards and have a victorious day!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ Utah State (0-7)
USU's probably gotta win a game sometime this year, but Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive and should be better than that record.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#5 Florida (5-2) @ #23 Georgia (5-2)
Well, Georgia's better than Auburn, so I suppose the Bulldogs have a shot. Still, they haven't been playing all that great lately, so I expect Florida to win this handily. If Georgia wasn't a running team, I'd give them more of a shot, but Florida's secondary is their weakness, and they've actually done a pretty good job controlling things on the ground.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Minnesota (1-7) @ #10 Michigan (6-2)
Oh come on now.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
#13 South Florida (6-1) @ Connecticut (6-1)
I am so close to doing it, but I won't. UConn neutralized Brian Brohm and all, but...no, no, I can't. Not two weeks in a row. Even if USF hasn't really shown an ability to run it yet. Oh, oh, maybe I could...oh, no.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Nebraska (4-4) @ #14 Texas (6-2)
Whether this will be a step up from Texas's wins over Baylor and Iowa State remains inconclusive.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
Clemson (5-2) @ Maryland (4-3)
Picking Clemson games seems beyond rhyme or reason. On a good day, they can beat anyone in the conference. On a bad day, they can lose to pretty much anyone short of Duke. I'll say that the Tigers have turned the corner after smacking the crap out of Central Michigan, but really, who knows.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (2-5) @ East Carolina (4-4)
Meh. UAB's more competitive than expected, but I wouldn't even call them mediocre within the conference. ECU's perfectly fine, nothing more, nothing less, and that should be enough against this team at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-5) @ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
WMU's been horribly disappointing. Eastern Michigan's been horrible.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Baylor (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
Baylor's not wholly awful, but they're easily the worst team in the Big 12. KSU's not at the level where this is a guaranteed win just yet, but it's pretty close.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (2-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-3)
ULM's been getting their act together after an awful start, but FAU's still one of the top Sun Belt teams until further notice.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Idaho (1-7) @ Nevada (3-4)
Nevada might be the #3 team in the WAC. They've been smacking the crap out of some teams with the Pistol offense, and this should be no exception.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
#25 Virginia (7-1) @ NC State (2-5)
I know I ranked UVA and all, but this screams of an upset to even things out. UVA's not as good as that record, NC State's not as bad as theirs. If the Wolfpack cutting down on turnovers (yes, 2 counts) last week signals the start of a trend, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
Rice (1-6) @ Marshall (0-7)
If Marshall doesn't get on the board here, they might as well give up. They're not THAT bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
Utah (5-3) @ Colorado State (1-6)
Meh. CSU didn't look all that impressive against UNLV in their first win of the year. Utah seems to have gotten their act together, so I'll go with the hot hand.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Mississippi (2-6) @ Auburn (5-3)
Brandon Cox has shown legitimate improvement. Unless he regresses horribly, this should be a definitive win at worst.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Ohio (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-3)
BGSU's been playing beter of the two as of late. That means nothing given the MAC, but still.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Stanford (3-4) @ Oregon State (4-3)
Stanford showed some legitimate improvement in beating Arizona, so they have a shot here. Still, Oregon State seems to be picking up steam as the season goes on.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington State (2-5)
I honestly have no rationale behind this pick except that it's UCLA, and this almost has to happen.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#21 Kansas (7-0) @ Texas A&M (6-2)
A&M's a perfectly above average team that can beat a whole bunch of teams unless the matchup presents a problem, such as Texas Tech's wacky offense and Miami's stout run defense. Kansas really presents no such problem - they're just pretty good overall. And, hey, A&M is too, and they're at home and might be better.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Troy (5-2) @ Arkansas State (3-4)
Given Arkansas State's implosion last week, there's almost no way I can pick them.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Middle Tennessee State (3-5) @ North Texas (1-6)
There's always the shot UNT puts up enough yardage to be a threat, but I'm not gonna pick it here. MTSU looks to be a perfectly fine Sun Belt team, which is more than the Mean Green is.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-7) @ Toledo (3-5)
NIU's awful. Awful bad. Awful awful.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#11 South Carolina (6-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
The Vols have a shot - SC's far from an unbeatable team, as Vandy obviously showed. Still, I can't help but think that Carolina will exploit that Tennessee secondary and bad. Plus, c'mon, it's Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#1 Ohio State (8-0) @ #15 Penn State (6-2)
Oh no, this could get real ugly. OSU shuts down the run almost completely, which leaves the Nittany Lions to rely on...Anthony Morelli. He's improved, but, um, well, no.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-6) @ Florida State (4-3)
Duke has a shot. No way I'm pickin' em, but Duke has a shot.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Houston (4-3) @ UTEP (4-3)
UTEP's fairly lucky to have that record. Houston's offensive firepower seems to be back at full speed, so that'll be trouble for the Miners.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
9:30 PM
Brigham Young (5-2) @ San Diego State (2-5)
BYU's good! SDSU, not so much.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#17 California (5-2) @ #9 Arizona State (7-0)
Y'know, Arizona State's defense hasn't been half bad. That said, this'll be the best offense they've faced. Really, this is a pick em - it'll probably turn into a Pac 10tastic shootout that either team can win. Still, if one team lays the beat down, I'd lean towards it being Arizona State, as the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home in recent years.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
New Mexico State (4-4) @ Hawaii (7-0)
The crap teams of the WAC have been taking their best shot and coming very close to knocking off Hawaii. I realize this is at Aloha Stadium and all, but New Mexico State is almost definitely the best of those crap teams.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Central Florida (4-3) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's run defense isn't especially great, so I expect UCF's Kevin Smith to continue his torrid pace. Then again, USM's a running team too, and UCF's run defense is about as mediocre as USM's. Oh, who knows, I'll just go with my first instinct.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
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