11:00 AM
MAC Championship
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Miami of Ohio (6-6)
MAC PARITY! HOORAY! This really could go either way - MAC teams are horribly hard to predict, but I'll actually go with the underdog here. Miami of Ohio's a better team than that 6-6 record, and CMU's both scuffling a little and not really all that great.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Army (3-8) vs. Navy (7-4)
Army's bad. Navy's not! Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but yeah, Navy's far superior.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
C-USA Championship
Central Florida (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Even. Very very even. I still have some uneasiness about Tulsa after hemorrhaging yardage against Rice, a horrible team with an offense that can rack up yardage. And UCF's Kevin Smith remains a beast on the ground, so I'll call for him to have a big day in what could be a very very fun pointfest.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
ACC Championship
#6 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #22 Boston College (10-2)
Virginia Tech's been living up to their reputation lately; after being unimpressive for most of the year, they've been excellent on defense and perfectly fine on offense. BC remains a pretty good team, and not much more or less - they have a shot, but VT almost beat them at a time when the Hokies were playing much worse.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (6-5) @ Troy (8-3)
For the Sun Belt title, and rightfully so - FAU's a solid team, which goes a long way in the Sun Belt, while Troy has been the class of the league. And that last clause is the key - Troy's the class of the league, and the Trojans are at home.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
SEC Championship
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #25 Tennessee (9-3)
Someone's getting exposed! LSU's defense has slipped enough where Erik Ainge could rack up some yards, so I guess the Vols could pull off a Kentucky-esque upset, but I'm pretty skeptical - LSU should be motivated, and Tennessee's fine and all, but they're not an upper tier SEC team.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
4:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (5-6) @ Nevada (5-6)
Louisiana Tech being close to bowl eligibility just confuses and frightens me. But, well, while Louisiana Tech's fine, Nevada? Very good. Somewhat unlucky. Should win pretty easily. Offense! Should be fun.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
UCLA (6-5) @ #5 USC (9-2)
Yeah, they're not letting it happen again this year. So, I wonder who the new UCLA coach will be.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
Oregon State (7-4) @ Oregon (8-3)
Oregon might be the worst team in I-A until evidence to the contrary. I mean, after their game against UCLA, just wow.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#20 Brigham Young (9-2) @ San Diego State (4-7)
Yawwwwwn. BYU's easily the class of the conference, the winner of the conference always goes undefeated, SDSU's not too good, moving on...
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
7:00 PM
California (6-5) @ Stanford (3-8)
Rivalry game, anything possible, so on and so on. Cal's sliding a little bit, but this still seems like a mismatch, as Stanford's just so far removed for...even anything approaching mediocrity.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 3
North Texas (2-9) @ Florida International (0-11)
And they are every bit 0-11.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
Pittsburgh (4-7) @ #1 West Virginia (10-1)
I want to. I really really want to. But WVU is a legitimately excellent team in a season mostly devoid of them, and they're not just backing into the title game by default or anything. That said, since this is 2007, an upset would absolutely not surprise me.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Big 12 Championship
#3 Missouri (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU's almost like Clemson - they look very good most of the time, but can just implode. And much like Clemson games, that makes this almost worthless to predict. Missouri's had some games go worse than others, but their defense has only been mediocre at the worst times, and that offense has always been excellent throughout the season. I'll trust in Chase Daniel.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-6) @ #10 Arizona State (9-2)
More even than you might think, honestly. I'll call for the rivalry game upset to finally get Arizona back into a bowl - that offense is improving, and ASU's actually somewhat due for a loss to a team a level below them.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
11:30 PM
Washington (4-8) @ #16 Hawaii (11-0)
I'm buying into Hawaii, even if Washington's running game can be dangerous. It's on the island, the numbers love the Warriors, why not.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Showing posts with label weekly preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weekly preview. Show all posts
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Week 14 Preview: Weekdays
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
Rutgers (7-4) @ Louisville (5-6)
Louisville's an underrated team, so this could be surprisingly even. I'll give Louisville the edge at home, since they have all the motivation in the world and could make a bowl game with a win here. Plus, y'know, that offense is still very good.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Fresno State (7-4) @ New Mexico State (4-8)
NMSU's an underrated team, so this could be surprisingly even. I'll give New Mexico State the edge at home, since, y'know, that offense is still pretty good, and Fresno's due for a bit of a correction on the year.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Rutgers (7-4) @ Louisville (5-6)
Louisville's an underrated team, so this could be surprisingly even. I'll give Louisville the edge at home, since they have all the motivation in the world and could make a bowl game with a win here. Plus, y'know, that offense is still very good.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Fresno State (7-4) @ New Mexico State (4-8)
NMSU's an underrated team, so this could be surprisingly even. I'll give New Mexico State the edge at home, since, y'know, that offense is still pretty good, and Fresno's due for a bit of a correction on the year.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Week 13 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2) @ #17 Virginia (9-2)
Two teams that started off slowly, but have come on hard the last few weeks to make this an interesting, interesting game. In fact, both are coming off of complete shitkickings of Miami; Virginia's was more one-sided, but VT's holding of the Canes to negative 2 rushing yards was probably the most impressive individual statistic. I'll still give UVA the edge at home, though - they've been more impressive as a whole in recent weeks, and again, they're at home. Still, this should be an ugly defensive battle that either team can win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
#13 South Florida (8-3) @ Pittsburgh (4-6)
Pitt can be a dangerous team - they have an ever-improving frosh QB and two good running backs. Still, after what USF absolutely did to poor Louisville and Brian Brohm, this could be put away early and turn out ugly.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-6) @ #24 Boston College (9-2)
God, Miami's going to go 5-7, aren't they? As overrated as BC can be at moments, if they can do one thing, it's shut down the run. And as their -2 rushing yards against Virginia Tech showed, Miami's running game can be shut down. And whoever Miami starts at QB, well, they're not good enough to win this game alone. Miami definitely has the talent to pull this off, but it requires a performance living up to said talent, and they've shown nothing near that this year.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-6) @ NC State (5-6)
Oh, who knows. The ACC picture has somewhat unmuddled itself in the past few weeks, but these two teams remain question marks in the middle of the pack. They're not GOOD, they're not BAD, and NC State has a tendency to just throw games away via interception. And hell, why not call for that to continue.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Buffalo (4-7) @ Kent State (3-8)
Kent State's been horribly unlucky all year - can they just get one win? Please?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2
Tulane (4-7) @ East Carolina (6-5)
ECU's scuffling and hasn't really impressed me. Plus Tulane is MATT FORTASTIC, and how can I not pick them with that adjective.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
Tennessee (8-3) @ #19 Kentucky (7-4)
The Vols pass defense is pretty bad, so yeah, Kentucky can exploit it all day and all night. Then again, Kentucky's defense is no great shakes either. I haven't been all that impressed with Tennessee, and again, they have a weakness Kentucky can exploit, so I'll give the nod to the 'Cats.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Utah (8-3) @ #23 BYU (8-2)
BYU's just been bitchslapping the conference, and the MWC champ seems to always finish undefeated in the conference on the year. Utah has a definite shot, and seem to be the #2 team in the MWC, but again, BYU's far and away the favorite.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
UTEP (4-7) @ Central Florida (8-3)
UTEP's just absolutely crumbling, and UCF's one of the elite teams in the conference. Kevin Smith could have an insane day, but either way, this'll be lopsided.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
SMU (1-10) @ Memphis (6-5)
Same thing as above - SMU's just dead in the water. Memphis'll put up a lot of points, they'll win at home, yep.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (6-5) @ Ohio (5-6)
Pardon me while I shrug and yawn. Miami seems to be the better team, even if it's hard to recommend anyone that participated in their game vs. Akron. But still, I'll choose the home team in the name of MAC parity and general silliness.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
Temple (4-7) @ Western Michigan (4-7)
WMU beating Iowa shows they at least have a pulse after being possibly the most disappointing team in the country. So I'll give them the nod at home.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
Wake Forest (7-4) @ Vanderbilt (5-6)
Yawn, all this mediocrity. Vandy's looked much better of late, so I'll give a competitive SEC team the edge at home over a pretty good is blase Wake team.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Arkansas State (5-6) @ Southern Miss (6-5)
Bleh. Arkansas State was dead in the water after a hot start until they had a big day against North Texas, but, well, it's North Texas. USM's no great shakes this year, but Arkansas State hasn't shown me much in months.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (8-3) @ Rice (3-8)
Rice has gotten better, but Tulsa's still the absolute beast of the C-USA, and since a win clinches their division of C-USA, they'll be motivated here too. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Connecticut (9-2) @ #3 West Virginia (9-1)
Oh, this one'll make me sad. UConn's one chance is that they're a team that wins on turnovers, and as both the USF game and late in the Cincy game showed, WVU can fumble it over quite easily. But still, this is at West Virginia, and UConn hasn't shown much on the road. WVU shuts down the run, and UConn is essentially useless without their running game. And the Mountaineers are just a much better team. Sigh.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 3
#6 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4)
GT looked good against UNC, but UGA's been looking better against better teams. There's the old axiom that anything can happen in a rivalry game, but that's the only reason this shouldn't be a completely one-sided affair.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Oklahoma State (6-5) @ #11 Oklahoma (9-2)
Sam Bradford's in, so this one got interesting. OK State doesn't have much of a defense, and OU's can be hit or miss. As much as I'd like to pick Oklahoma State, and I'd really like to, I just can't see it with Bradford in, since it's not like he has a hand injury that will affect his mechanics or anything. Plus while losing DeMarco Murray hurts, the Sooners have a bunch of talented running backs. OU should win what could very well be a fun little shootout.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
#12 Oregon (8-2) @ UCLA (5-5)
Oh jeez. Despite having the inferior Leaf brother at quarterback, Oregon may actually be better off, as UCLA's essentially starting a wide receiver at the position. I'll give Oregon the edge since I assume they've re-worked their offense to fit Leaf, but UCLA can give them fits if they feel like it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Duke (1-10) @ North Carolina (3-8)
UNC's very underrated - if their QBs threw less interceptions, they could easily have a better record. Which...seems like an obvious thing to say. But still, it's better than not being able to move the ball at all or anything. As I said with the Notre Dame game, Duke's given up, although this being a rivalry game (and Duke's best shot at a second win) should have them fired up. Still, I'll give the edge to the better team, even though Duke has a shot if they feel like it.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (5-6) @ Fresno State (6-4)
KSU's in the absolute doldrums, but staring bowl-eligibility in the face should hopefully motivate them. Plus Fresno's not all that good.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Texas Southern @ Houston (7-4)
Come on now.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Utah State (1-10) @ Idaho (1-10)
After some sophisticated computer analysis, I have determined that both teams are very bad. Idaho is at home and seems less worse.
My Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1
Notre Dame (2-9) @ Stanford (3-7)
Oh jeez. Notre Dame's probably the better team, honestly. Which...says a lot about Stanford. But it's at Stanford. Oh jeez. I'll just go with the Irish, who knows.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Ball State (6-5) @ Northern Illinois (2-9)
NIU's gotten a bit better recently, but are still very bad. Ball State's one of the better MAC teams, which...means little with the conference's parity, but I'll still give it to the Cards.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Nevada (5-5) @ San Jose State (4-7)
Could be a neat little game, especially with it being at SJSU, as both teams have big-offense ability when they feel like it. Nevada's been the better team, but either one has a chance if this devolves into a shootout.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
Western Kentucky @ North Texas (1-9)
WKU's been competitive in their I-A games, UNT less so.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UAB (2-9) @ Marshall (2-9)
Marshall's actually stepped things up to look a lot better lately, plus they've been the better team of the two throughout the year. Really though, yawn.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
#7 Florida (8-3) vs. Florida State (7-4)
FSU hasn't been all that impressive of late - I mean, they gave up 340 yards to Maryland, bleh. I mean, the Seminoles are fine and all, but I rate them fairly low in Tebow stoppability. If Tebow gets hurt, sure, but they only have a 15% or so chance otherwise.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
UNLV (2-9) @ New Mexico (7-4)
Bleh. New Mexico's a wholly fine team that really doesn't impress at anything, UNLV could be just the same if they had gotten a few more breaks during the season. I'll call for UNLV to catch one here and even things out a tad.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#25 Clemson (8-3) vs. South Carolina (6-5)
Statistical analysis is a folly in a Clemson game. I mean, come on, we know the implosion is on, don't we?
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (5-5) @ Florida International (0-10)
Rivalry game, anything can happen and such, but FIU's just rotten, and FAU's been a competitive team almost all year. Hell, they beat Minnesota, that counts for...a little.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
Louisiana-Monroe (5-6) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (3-8)
ULM was the better team even before they beat Alabama, and with a chance at a bowl AND this being a rivalry game, I assume the Warhawks will be motivated to absolutely dominate, which they easily can.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Washington State (4-7) @ Washington (4-7)
Intriguing, especially after last week, where Wazzou got annihilated by Oregon State, and Washington went batshit insane on the ground. Still, both teams should bring their A game, and I'll go with the better team on the year.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:15 PM
#21 Cincinnati (8-3) @ Syracuse (2-9)
I feel obligated to write a sentence for this preview.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
#4 Missouri (10-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-0)
...really? This is such a hard one to pick, especially since Kansas's annihilation of Iowa State impressed me. Both offenses are obviously great, but the question mark is Kansas's defense - we know Missouri's is fine, but nothing special, and Kansas's has been great, but not against many high-powered offenses. Then again, Missouri's had much worse stats against mostly the same level of guys. And really, the rivalry game axiom makes this even more of a pick 'em. The statistical edge screams Kansas Kansas Kansas, but inertia's a hard thing to overcome, and I'll go with the pick I made a few weeks ago.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Alabama (6-5) vs. Auburn (7-4)
Alabama's not a bad team, they just had a bad case of turnoveritis against LA-Monroe. Auburn's a very vulnerable team with Brandon Cox at the helm, and I think the Tide just might want some redemption here.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
TCU (6-5) @ San Diego State (4-6)
TCU seems to have turned the ship around. This'll probably be one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2) @ #17 Virginia (9-2)
Two teams that started off slowly, but have come on hard the last few weeks to make this an interesting, interesting game. In fact, both are coming off of complete shitkickings of Miami; Virginia's was more one-sided, but VT's holding of the Canes to negative 2 rushing yards was probably the most impressive individual statistic. I'll still give UVA the edge at home, though - they've been more impressive as a whole in recent weeks, and again, they're at home. Still, this should be an ugly defensive battle that either team can win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
#13 South Florida (8-3) @ Pittsburgh (4-6)
Pitt can be a dangerous team - they have an ever-improving frosh QB and two good running backs. Still, after what USF absolutely did to poor Louisville and Brian Brohm, this could be put away early and turn out ugly.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-6) @ #24 Boston College (9-2)
God, Miami's going to go 5-7, aren't they? As overrated as BC can be at moments, if they can do one thing, it's shut down the run. And as their -2 rushing yards against Virginia Tech showed, Miami's running game can be shut down. And whoever Miami starts at QB, well, they're not good enough to win this game alone. Miami definitely has the talent to pull this off, but it requires a performance living up to said talent, and they've shown nothing near that this year.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-6) @ NC State (5-6)
Oh, who knows. The ACC picture has somewhat unmuddled itself in the past few weeks, but these two teams remain question marks in the middle of the pack. They're not GOOD, they're not BAD, and NC State has a tendency to just throw games away via interception. And hell, why not call for that to continue.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Buffalo (4-7) @ Kent State (3-8)
Kent State's been horribly unlucky all year - can they just get one win? Please?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2
Tulane (4-7) @ East Carolina (6-5)
ECU's scuffling and hasn't really impressed me. Plus Tulane is MATT FORTASTIC, and how can I not pick them with that adjective.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
1:30 PM
Tennessee (8-3) @ #19 Kentucky (7-4)
The Vols pass defense is pretty bad, so yeah, Kentucky can exploit it all day and all night. Then again, Kentucky's defense is no great shakes either. I haven't been all that impressed with Tennessee, and again, they have a weakness Kentucky can exploit, so I'll give the nod to the 'Cats.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Utah (8-3) @ #23 BYU (8-2)
BYU's just been bitchslapping the conference, and the MWC champ seems to always finish undefeated in the conference on the year. Utah has a definite shot, and seem to be the #2 team in the MWC, but again, BYU's far and away the favorite.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
UTEP (4-7) @ Central Florida (8-3)
UTEP's just absolutely crumbling, and UCF's one of the elite teams in the conference. Kevin Smith could have an insane day, but either way, this'll be lopsided.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
SMU (1-10) @ Memphis (6-5)
Same thing as above - SMU's just dead in the water. Memphis'll put up a lot of points, they'll win at home, yep.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (6-5) @ Ohio (5-6)
Pardon me while I shrug and yawn. Miami seems to be the better team, even if it's hard to recommend anyone that participated in their game vs. Akron. But still, I'll choose the home team in the name of MAC parity and general silliness.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
Temple (4-7) @ Western Michigan (4-7)
WMU beating Iowa shows they at least have a pulse after being possibly the most disappointing team in the country. So I'll give them the nod at home.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
Wake Forest (7-4) @ Vanderbilt (5-6)
Yawn, all this mediocrity. Vandy's looked much better of late, so I'll give a competitive SEC team the edge at home over a pretty good is blase Wake team.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Arkansas State (5-6) @ Southern Miss (6-5)
Bleh. Arkansas State was dead in the water after a hot start until they had a big day against North Texas, but, well, it's North Texas. USM's no great shakes this year, but Arkansas State hasn't shown me much in months.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (8-3) @ Rice (3-8)
Rice has gotten better, but Tulsa's still the absolute beast of the C-USA, and since a win clinches their division of C-USA, they'll be motivated here too. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Connecticut (9-2) @ #3 West Virginia (9-1)
Oh, this one'll make me sad. UConn's one chance is that they're a team that wins on turnovers, and as both the USF game and late in the Cincy game showed, WVU can fumble it over quite easily. But still, this is at West Virginia, and UConn hasn't shown much on the road. WVU shuts down the run, and UConn is essentially useless without their running game. And the Mountaineers are just a much better team. Sigh.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 3
#6 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4)
GT looked good against UNC, but UGA's been looking better against better teams. There's the old axiom that anything can happen in a rivalry game, but that's the only reason this shouldn't be a completely one-sided affair.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Oklahoma State (6-5) @ #11 Oklahoma (9-2)
Sam Bradford's in, so this one got interesting. OK State doesn't have much of a defense, and OU's can be hit or miss. As much as I'd like to pick Oklahoma State, and I'd really like to, I just can't see it with Bradford in, since it's not like he has a hand injury that will affect his mechanics or anything. Plus while losing DeMarco Murray hurts, the Sooners have a bunch of talented running backs. OU should win what could very well be a fun little shootout.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
#12 Oregon (8-2) @ UCLA (5-5)
Oh jeez. Despite having the inferior Leaf brother at quarterback, Oregon may actually be better off, as UCLA's essentially starting a wide receiver at the position. I'll give Oregon the edge since I assume they've re-worked their offense to fit Leaf, but UCLA can give them fits if they feel like it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Duke (1-10) @ North Carolina (3-8)
UNC's very underrated - if their QBs threw less interceptions, they could easily have a better record. Which...seems like an obvious thing to say. But still, it's better than not being able to move the ball at all or anything. As I said with the Notre Dame game, Duke's given up, although this being a rivalry game (and Duke's best shot at a second win) should have them fired up. Still, I'll give the edge to the better team, even though Duke has a shot if they feel like it.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (5-6) @ Fresno State (6-4)
KSU's in the absolute doldrums, but staring bowl-eligibility in the face should hopefully motivate them. Plus Fresno's not all that good.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Texas Southern @ Houston (7-4)
Come on now.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Utah State (1-10) @ Idaho (1-10)
After some sophisticated computer analysis, I have determined that both teams are very bad. Idaho is at home and seems less worse.
My Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 1
Notre Dame (2-9) @ Stanford (3-7)
Oh jeez. Notre Dame's probably the better team, honestly. Which...says a lot about Stanford. But it's at Stanford. Oh jeez. I'll just go with the Irish, who knows.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Ball State (6-5) @ Northern Illinois (2-9)
NIU's gotten a bit better recently, but are still very bad. Ball State's one of the better MAC teams, which...means little with the conference's parity, but I'll still give it to the Cards.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Nevada (5-5) @ San Jose State (4-7)
Could be a neat little game, especially with it being at SJSU, as both teams have big-offense ability when they feel like it. Nevada's been the better team, but either one has a chance if this devolves into a shootout.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
Western Kentucky @ North Texas (1-9)
WKU's been competitive in their I-A games, UNT less so.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UAB (2-9) @ Marshall (2-9)
Marshall's actually stepped things up to look a lot better lately, plus they've been the better team of the two throughout the year. Really though, yawn.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
#7 Florida (8-3) vs. Florida State (7-4)
FSU hasn't been all that impressive of late - I mean, they gave up 340 yards to Maryland, bleh. I mean, the Seminoles are fine and all, but I rate them fairly low in Tebow stoppability. If Tebow gets hurt, sure, but they only have a 15% or so chance otherwise.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
UNLV (2-9) @ New Mexico (7-4)
Bleh. New Mexico's a wholly fine team that really doesn't impress at anything, UNLV could be just the same if they had gotten a few more breaks during the season. I'll call for UNLV to catch one here and even things out a tad.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#25 Clemson (8-3) vs. South Carolina (6-5)
Statistical analysis is a folly in a Clemson game. I mean, come on, we know the implosion is on, don't we?
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
Florida Atlantic (5-5) @ Florida International (0-10)
Rivalry game, anything can happen and such, but FIU's just rotten, and FAU's been a competitive team almost all year. Hell, they beat Minnesota, that counts for...a little.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
Louisiana-Monroe (5-6) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (3-8)
ULM was the better team even before they beat Alabama, and with a chance at a bowl AND this being a rivalry game, I assume the Warhawks will be motivated to absolutely dominate, which they easily can.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
Washington State (4-7) @ Washington (4-7)
Intriguing, especially after last week, where Wazzou got annihilated by Oregon State, and Washington went batshit insane on the ground. Still, both teams should bring their A game, and I'll go with the better team on the year.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:15 PM
#21 Cincinnati (8-3) @ Syracuse (2-9)
I feel obligated to write a sentence for this preview.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
#4 Missouri (10-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-0)
...really? This is such a hard one to pick, especially since Kansas's annihilation of Iowa State impressed me. Both offenses are obviously great, but the question mark is Kansas's defense - we know Missouri's is fine, but nothing special, and Kansas's has been great, but not against many high-powered offenses. Then again, Missouri's had much worse stats against mostly the same level of guys. And really, the rivalry game axiom makes this even more of a pick 'em. The statistical edge screams Kansas Kansas Kansas, but inertia's a hard thing to overcome, and I'll go with the pick I made a few weeks ago.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Alabama (6-5) vs. Auburn (7-4)
Alabama's not a bad team, they just had a bad case of turnoveritis against LA-Monroe. Auburn's a very vulnerable team with Brandon Cox at the helm, and I think the Tide just might want some redemption here.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
TCU (6-5) @ San Diego State (4-6)
TCU seems to have turned the ship around. This'll probably be one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Week 13 Preview: Weekdays
TUESDAY
7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (5-6) @ Troy (7-3)
MTSU's been scuffling a bit lately in conference play after a hot start - not that it matters against Troy, especially on the road. The Trojans are the class of the conference.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence (out of 5): 3
THURSDAY
8:00 PM
#9 USC (8-2) @ #5 Arizona State (9-1)
Intriguing - SC's not dead yet. Really, any Pac 10 game between the top few teams (which, with Dixon out and Cal falling from grace, means...these two) is essentially a pick 'em. The kneejerk is to say USC's got the advantage on defense, but ASU's is no slouch; plus I have much more faith in Arizona State's offense to show up than USC's, and the Sun Devils have always been better at home in recent years. The Sun Devils should be the clear favorite, though USC obviously has a chance.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
11:00 AM
Central Michigan (6-5) @ Akron (4-7)
Oh, the MAC. Central lost to Eastern Michigan, which is likely a worse team than Akron, so a win by the Zips is thoroughly possible, especially at home in, again, the parity-filled MAC. Still, Akron showed less than nothing in losing to Miami of Ohio last week, so this is a similar situation to the CMU/EMU game - CMU's vulnerable, but there's no real reason to recommend Akron. Of course, Central lost that game, but still, I'm going with the Chippewas.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Nebraska (5-6) @ Colorado (5-6)
Nebraska's annihilation of Kansas State shows me they haven't given up yet, even if they probably should. At the very least, they should be extremely motivated to at least make it to .500, so I'll give all that talent a shot to beat a pretty mediocre team.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi (3-8) @ Mississippi State (6-5)
After Ole Miss's great offensive performance against LSU, I don't know. MSU's been the better team all year, and they had an offensive breakthrough of their own last week, so I'll give the Bulldogs the edge; still, they should allow a lot of points and yards in the process.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Wyoming (5-6) @ Colorado State (2-9)
Wyoming's imploding, but CSU is just outright bad. I'll still give the Rams the nod at home, though - this may be it for Sonny Lubick, the best coach in program history, so they have some extra motivation. Plus, at this point, these two teams are about even.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Arkansas (7-2) @ #1 LSU (10-1)
LSU's an elite run defense at home, and McFadden was mostly dormant against Mississippi State. McFadden could always take over a game, but against this defense, on the road, after Arkansas allowed that many yards to Mississippi State, this could easily be a walk for the Tigers.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Toledo (5-6) @ Bowling Green (7-4)
BGSU's probably the best team in the MAC. Which gives them a 51% chance of winning here. Okay, okay, 52%.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#16 Texas (9-2) @ Texas A&M (6-5)
Oh why the hell not. A&M's at home in a rivalry game with an outgoing coach, the Aggies seem to have rediscovered their pass/run balance, and Texas has that shaky secondary.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#18 Boise State (10-1) @ Hawaii (10-0)
Hawaii could easily pull this out at home. They seem to have a knack for doing just enough. Still, they've done just enough against teams like San Jose State and Utah State, which Boise's absolutely annihilated. This is Hawaii's first big test of the year, and unlike, say, Kansas, they've done nothing to prove they can handle it.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (5-6) @ Troy (7-3)
MTSU's been scuffling a bit lately in conference play after a hot start - not that it matters against Troy, especially on the road. The Trojans are the class of the conference.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence (out of 5): 3
THURSDAY
8:00 PM
#9 USC (8-2) @ #5 Arizona State (9-1)
Intriguing - SC's not dead yet. Really, any Pac 10 game between the top few teams (which, with Dixon out and Cal falling from grace, means...these two) is essentially a pick 'em. The kneejerk is to say USC's got the advantage on defense, but ASU's is no slouch; plus I have much more faith in Arizona State's offense to show up than USC's, and the Sun Devils have always been better at home in recent years. The Sun Devils should be the clear favorite, though USC obviously has a chance.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
11:00 AM
Central Michigan (6-5) @ Akron (4-7)
Oh, the MAC. Central lost to Eastern Michigan, which is likely a worse team than Akron, so a win by the Zips is thoroughly possible, especially at home in, again, the parity-filled MAC. Still, Akron showed less than nothing in losing to Miami of Ohio last week, so this is a similar situation to the CMU/EMU game - CMU's vulnerable, but there's no real reason to recommend Akron. Of course, Central lost that game, but still, I'm going with the Chippewas.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Nebraska (5-6) @ Colorado (5-6)
Nebraska's annihilation of Kansas State shows me they haven't given up yet, even if they probably should. At the very least, they should be extremely motivated to at least make it to .500, so I'll give all that talent a shot to beat a pretty mediocre team.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi (3-8) @ Mississippi State (6-5)
After Ole Miss's great offensive performance against LSU, I don't know. MSU's been the better team all year, and they had an offensive breakthrough of their own last week, so I'll give the Bulldogs the edge; still, they should allow a lot of points and yards in the process.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Wyoming (5-6) @ Colorado State (2-9)
Wyoming's imploding, but CSU is just outright bad. I'll still give the Rams the nod at home, though - this may be it for Sonny Lubick, the best coach in program history, so they have some extra motivation. Plus, at this point, these two teams are about even.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Arkansas (7-2) @ #1 LSU (10-1)
LSU's an elite run defense at home, and McFadden was mostly dormant against Mississippi State. McFadden could always take over a game, but against this defense, on the road, after Arkansas allowed that many yards to Mississippi State, this could easily be a walk for the Tigers.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Toledo (5-6) @ Bowling Green (7-4)
BGSU's probably the best team in the MAC. Which gives them a 51% chance of winning here. Okay, okay, 52%.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#16 Texas (9-2) @ Texas A&M (6-5)
Oh why the hell not. A&M's at home in a rivalry game with an outgoing coach, the Aggies seem to have rediscovered their pass/run balance, and Texas has that shaky secondary.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#18 Boise State (10-1) @ Hawaii (10-0)
Hawaii could easily pull this out at home. They seem to have a knack for doing just enough. Still, they've done just enough against teams like San Jose State and Utah State, which Boise's absolutely annihilated. This is Hawaii's first big test of the year, and unlike, say, Kansas, they've done nothing to prove they can handle it.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Saturday
Sorry for the delay, things are horribly busy.
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Weekdays
TUESDAY
7:30 PM
Toledo (5-5) @ Ball State (5-5)
Toledo's somewhat quietly rebounded very well in conference play from what was an awful start to the year. Ball State's somewhat erratic - they've deserved their losses, but when they play well, they may be the best team in the MAC. This is probably the most interesting of the weekday MAC matchups, and while Toledo has the momentum (and tons of it), I'll go with the better team at home.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM
Akron (4-6) @ Miami of Ohio (5-5)
Miami's the better team, but of course, this is a rivalry game in the MAC - either team can win. Should be entertaining, at any rate.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
North Texas (1-8) @ Arkansas State (4-6)
Arkansas State's pretty much collapsed in conference play after very good showings against a tough non-conference schedule. Damned if I can figure it out. I'll pick the Mean Green, since, well, they can put up tons of yardage and points, neither of which I'm sure ASU can do anymore.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#2 Oregon (8-1) @ Arizona (4-6)
Arizona's underrated - the Wildcats have had some unlucky breaks, and now that their new offense seems to be taking, they're a dangerous, dangerous team. And honestly, they have a shot - Oregon hasn't been dominant in the Pac 10, they've just played even with teams like USC and Arizona State and gotten the breaks to win. Actually, what the hell; given this year, and given this being the #2 team on Thursday night on the road, it's almost gotta happen.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-8) @ Central Michigan (6-4)
The upset potential is there - the MAC is full of parity, it's a rivalry game, and CMU's been pretty lucky throughout the year. Plus Central's already clinched their division of the MAC, so there could be some coasting or a letdown. Still, I really can't pick Eastern - while the Eagles aren't horrible, they're still a lower-level MAC team without much to recommend.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
11:00 PM
Hawaii (9-0) @ Nevada (5-4)
Hawaii's always vulnerable, and seems to be a better team at home. This one's in Nevada, and the Wolf Pack are probably the best team in the WAC outside of the big town (Boise and Hawaii). I'M PULLING THE TRIGGER!
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Toledo (5-5) @ Ball State (5-5)
Toledo's somewhat quietly rebounded very well in conference play from what was an awful start to the year. Ball State's somewhat erratic - they've deserved their losses, but when they play well, they may be the best team in the MAC. This is probably the most interesting of the weekday MAC matchups, and while Toledo has the momentum (and tons of it), I'll go with the better team at home.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM
Akron (4-6) @ Miami of Ohio (5-5)
Miami's the better team, but of course, this is a rivalry game in the MAC - either team can win. Should be entertaining, at any rate.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 1
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
North Texas (1-8) @ Arkansas State (4-6)
Arkansas State's pretty much collapsed in conference play after very good showings against a tough non-conference schedule. Damned if I can figure it out. I'll pick the Mean Green, since, well, they can put up tons of yardage and points, neither of which I'm sure ASU can do anymore.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#2 Oregon (8-1) @ Arizona (4-6)
Arizona's underrated - the Wildcats have had some unlucky breaks, and now that their new offense seems to be taking, they're a dangerous, dangerous team. And honestly, they have a shot - Oregon hasn't been dominant in the Pac 10, they've just played even with teams like USC and Arizona State and gotten the breaks to win. Actually, what the hell; given this year, and given this being the #2 team on Thursday night on the road, it's almost gotta happen.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-8) @ Central Michigan (6-4)
The upset potential is there - the MAC is full of parity, it's a rivalry game, and CMU's been pretty lucky throughout the year. Plus Central's already clinched their division of the MAC, so there could be some coasting or a letdown. Still, I really can't pick Eastern - while the Eagles aren't horrible, they're still a lower-level MAC team without much to recommend.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
11:00 PM
Hawaii (9-0) @ Nevada (5-4)
Hawaii's always vulnerable, and seems to be a better team at home. This one's in Nevada, and the Wolf Pack are probably the best team in the WAC outside of the big town (Boise and Hawaii). I'M PULLING THE TRIGGER!
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 1
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Tuesday-Friday
TUESDAY
7:30 PM
Central Michigan (5-4) @ Western Michigan (3-6)
CMU seems to be the top team in the MAC, which with their horrible defense, horrible out of conference showing, and loss to North Dakota State, speaks to the MAC's low status this year. Western Michigan's just been horribly disappointing, and believe it or not, a win here makes sense for the Broncos - they're at home in a rivalry game with their backs against the wall, and a WMU win would be MAC paritytastic.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 1
WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM
Ohio (5-5) @ Akron (3-6)
Meh. Ohio's actually a perfectly fine team, but despite beating Bowling Green and dominating Temple, they're really not much to get excited about. However, Akron's shown less than nothing to date.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
Louisville (5-4) @ #4 West Virginia (7-1)
Intriguing. Louisville has a chance if this degenerates into a shootout, but WVU has a statistically excellent defense. Of course, with the possible exception of Matt Grothe, WVU hasn't faced anyone in Brian Brohm's league. Of course, all of that's likely moot, since WVU will put up 40 or so on that Louisville D.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
TCU (5-4) @ Brigham Young (6-2)
This gained intrigue after TCU's complete dominance of New Mexico, just completely shutting down the Lobo offense. Still, one game does not a trend make, and since TCU mostly shut down the run and BYU is a passing team, I'll give the Cougars the edge.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
7:30 PM
Bowling Green (5-4) @ Eastern Michigan (3-7)
A lot like Ohio/Akron. BGSU's a good team that there's really no excitement about, especially since beating Minnesota means nothing this year. But, again, EMU's shown less than nothing to date.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Rutgers (5-4) @ Army (3-6)
Funny after last year and this preseason, but if anything, Rutgers is probably underrated at the moment. Ray Rice is a top 3 back nationally, and may actually be better week-in week-out than McFadden. He'll get to show that here.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
Central Michigan (5-4) @ Western Michigan (3-6)
CMU seems to be the top team in the MAC, which with their horrible defense, horrible out of conference showing, and loss to North Dakota State, speaks to the MAC's low status this year. Western Michigan's just been horribly disappointing, and believe it or not, a win here makes sense for the Broncos - they're at home in a rivalry game with their backs against the wall, and a WMU win would be MAC paritytastic.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 1
WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM
Ohio (5-5) @ Akron (3-6)
Meh. Ohio's actually a perfectly fine team, but despite beating Bowling Green and dominating Temple, they're really not much to get excited about. However, Akron's shown less than nothing to date.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
Louisville (5-4) @ #4 West Virginia (7-1)
Intriguing. Louisville has a chance if this degenerates into a shootout, but WVU has a statistically excellent defense. Of course, with the possible exception of Matt Grothe, WVU hasn't faced anyone in Brian Brohm's league. Of course, all of that's likely moot, since WVU will put up 40 or so on that Louisville D.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
TCU (5-4) @ Brigham Young (6-2)
This gained intrigue after TCU's complete dominance of New Mexico, just completely shutting down the Lobo offense. Still, one game does not a trend make, and since TCU mostly shut down the run and BYU is a passing team, I'll give the Cougars the edge.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
7:30 PM
Bowling Green (5-4) @ Eastern Michigan (3-7)
A lot like Ohio/Akron. BGSU's a good team that there's really no excitement about, especially since beating Minnesota means nothing this year. But, again, EMU's shown less than nothing to date.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Rutgers (5-4) @ Army (3-6)
Funny after last year and this preseason, but if anything, Rutgers is probably underrated at the moment. Ray Rice is a top 3 back nationally, and may actually be better week-in week-out than McFadden. He'll get to show that here.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
Friday, November 02, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Saturday and Sunday
Okay, I think I made it through this week. I seem to be in one piece, yes.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Monday, October 29, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#24 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Georgia Tech (5-3)
Two teams that are probably overrated. In the ACC shock? Guess which team has the statistically better defense! Hint: it's the one with the better offense too. PLUS I get to call the upset that continues the ACC's frustrating parity. YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
FRIDAY
7:00 PM
Temple (3-5) @ Ohio (4-5)
Oh, who knows. Damn MAC. Ohio's probably more talented, and they have the better offense, which may be what matters in the defenseless realm of the MAC. Still, Temple's riding a three-game winning streak, so why not go with momentum?
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Akron (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-4)
Kind of a similar thing to the Temple/Ohio game, to an extent, except everything's in BGSU's favor. The Falcons have the better offense, and while they've been frustratingly shaky, Akron has a severe lack of momentum going. Although who knows what that means in the MAC.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Nevada (4-4) @ New Mexico State (4-5)
New Mexico State was expected to be all-offense, no-defense, but has been more of no-defense, kinda-offense. Nevada's D isn't all that great or anything, but they probably have the edge on both sides of the ball.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
#24 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Georgia Tech (5-3)
Two teams that are probably overrated. In the ACC shock? Guess which team has the statistically better defense! Hint: it's the one with the better offense too. PLUS I get to call the upset that continues the ACC's frustrating parity. YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
FRIDAY
7:00 PM
Temple (3-5) @ Ohio (4-5)
Oh, who knows. Damn MAC. Ohio's probably more talented, and they have the better offense, which may be what matters in the defenseless realm of the MAC. Still, Temple's riding a three-game winning streak, so why not go with momentum?
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Akron (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-4)
Kind of a similar thing to the Temple/Ohio game, to an extent, except everything's in BGSU's favor. The Falcons have the better offense, and while they've been frustratingly shaky, Akron has a severe lack of momentum going. Although who knows what that means in the MAC.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Nevada (4-4) @ New Mexico State (4-5)
New Mexico State was expected to be all-offense, no-defense, but has been more of no-defense, kinda-offense. Nevada's D isn't all that great or anything, but they probably have the edge on both sides of the ball.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 2
Monday, October 22, 2007
Week 9 Preview
I'm in the pre-training phase for my first job out of college, and have a whole lot of reading/assorted work to do, so I'm getting this all out of the way so I can be productive during the week. Pray nobody gets injured so my thoughts remain relevant.
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#18 Boston College (7-0) @ #22 Virginia Tech (6-1)
Well. BC isn't really all that great, but then again, VT hasn't showed much of anything either except against the Dukes of the world. Still, I mean, come on. It's an undefeated team. On a Thursday. On the road. In a game that could very well be an upset. In 2007. Duh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
9:00 PM
Air Force (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-2)
UNM seems to be the favorite in the Mountain West at the moment, and Air Force has gotten a bit lucky in a few of their conference wins. I expect things to even out somewhat here, even if the craziness continuing wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
9:00 PM
Boise State (6-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
A bit of a close one. Boise seems to easily be the best team in the WAC, but it doesn't seem like a huge difference or them being a tier above. Still, while Fresno is much closer to their pre-2006 level than their implosion last year, they haven't really broken out from the WAC pack. An upset's possible, but Boise's the class of the conference until proven otherwise.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#4 West Virginia (6-1) @ #24 Rutgers (5-2)
West Virginia's done a pretty good job shutting down the run, though Ray Rice is admittedly the best back they've faced yet. Still, Rutgers needs to be at the top of their game to have a chance against the Mountaineers, and Mike Teel's spottiness doesn't have me completely convinced yet. The Mountaineers should be able to put up points here, though if fumbilitis strikes the team like it did versus USF, Rutgers can obviously win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Indiana (5-3) @ #16 Wisconsin (6-2)
An intriguing one. Indiana isn't especially known for its running game, but if Wisconsin's run defense holds to its poor form, the Hoosiers backs plus their great QB, Kellen Lewis, may be too much for the Badgers to handle. Still, the same can be said the other way around - Wisconsin has a very good QB in Tyler Donovan, and running back P.J. Hill's probably the best player on either team. This could, and frankly probably should, be an exceedingly close game, but I'll give the nod to the proven home team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
Ball State (5-3) @ #20 Illinois (5-3)
Ball State's been good in spots, but come on now. The Cardinals offense may be able to do something, but I don't see them stopping Illinois from running it often and running it for many scores.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 4
Colorado (4-4) @ Texas Tech (6-2)
Colorado stopped the Oklahoma offense, so I guess anything's possible. Plus Cody Hawkins is a bit of a gunslinger, so the Buffaloes actually have a chance if this goes into a shootout. Still, Texas Tech's been mostly on point this year, and I see no reason to pick against them.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (5-3) @ Iowa (3-5)
Iowa turned back into a pumpkin against Purdue, but the Hawkeyes remain a looming threat. They shut down Illinois's run game and forced them to rely on a QB that can't win a game by his lonesome. The same thing could well happen here. That said, Brian Hoyer's probably better than either of the Illinois quarterbacks, and Iowa's offense was bad enough themselves that they only won thanks to a horrible game-ending interception. The Hawkeyes can win, but if they also can lose if their gameplan works, I'm not picking them.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (3-4) @ Louisville (4-4)
It says something about how far Louisville's fallen when this game has intrigue. It says something more when I find myself picking Pittsburgh. I'm not sure the Pitt defense can completely stop Louisville, but the Panthers looked like a new team against Cincinnati with LaRod Stephens-Howling back. It almost reminds me of a team they played close and a team I just discussed, Michigan State, in that their two star running backs can carry the load while complementing a QB that, while solid, isn't a game-changer. Of course, since Pitt QB Pat Bostick is a freshman, that may also have to be changed to "isn't a game changer YET." Plus, really, you don't have to be a game-changer against Louisville's D, sometimes they'll just let you have some yards after catch. So, yes, I'm picking Pitt to pull off the somewhat shocking upset. Although, of course, watch Louisville go nuts and win 49-10.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (2-5) @ Wake Forest (5-2)
Wake's a fine team, which, in the ACC, will give you a 5-2 record. UNC's surprisingly good, much better than their record - they could've very well beaten South Carolina and Virginia Tech. While I'm not in love with Heels QB TJ Yates's 10/10 TD/INT ratio, parity tends to reign in the ACC and UNC is probably at Wake's level.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
Northwestern (5-3) @ Purdue (6-2)
Oh mama, this could be a fun shootout. This SHOULD be a fun shootout. Purdue has the more talented horses so I'll give them the edge at home, but Northwestern could win this very easily.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (4-4) @ #12 Kentucky (6-2)
It'd take the conflation of MSU being at the top of their game and Kentucky playing the worst they have all year in order for the Bulldogs to win this. I mean, it could happen, but Kentucky on a bad night by their standards this year (if they've even had one?) should put enough points to win this.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Akron (3-4) @ Buffalo (3-5)
Buffalo played well against Syracuse, even if they lost. Akron hasn't been all that impressive, and I am nothing if not irrationally on the Buffalo bandwagon at the moment. Even if they were UConn's rivalry game in NCAA Football for some reason for quite a few years.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Central Michigan (4-4) @ Kent State (3-5)
CMU looked to have gotten its act together, and I realize Clemson is a cut about the MAC, but wow, that was a whoopin'. Kent State's been somewhat unlucky in close games, so I'll call for things to even out here at home.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Delaware @ Navy (4-3)
Delaware's typically a pretty good I-AA, so they're probably good enough to do well against the suspect Navy D. But, hey, if I didn't pick North Dakota State vs. Minnesota, I'm not picking Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Iowa State (1-7) @ #8 Missouri (6-1)
Iowa State's been somewhat unlucky on the year, but come on now. If Missouri shut down the Texas Tech offense, this'll be ugly early and often.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-7) @ Arkansas (4-3)
FIU's the worst team in I-A, fairly easily. Way to schedule tough, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Miami of Ohio (4-4) @ Vanderbilt (4-3)
Miami's a dangerous MAC team, but I'm on the Vandy bandwagon after their win over South Carolina, where they finally played up to my preseason expectation. I'm on the VANDwagon, ha ha ha. God that was horrible.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 3
UNLV (2-6) @ Wyoming (4-3)
The Mountain West is so filled with parity, who knows. Two teams that probably deserved to win last week, but I'd say Wyoming's closer to the top of the conference while UNLV's near the bottom. And the Cowboys are at home, so there.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
#6 USC (6-1) @ #3 Oregon (6-1)
Oh boy, this one'll be fun. While USC's obviously a top-flight team, they really haven't had much of a schedule thus far, with the best team they've beaten being...god, Nebraska. Thus, while the stats say USC has the better defense by far, it's hard to tell how good the unit is when they've been playing Evan Sharpley. Then again, the inverse is somewhat true, as Oregon hasn't faced much of a defense all year, outside of Michigan who, well, you know, spread offense. Oh, what the hell, I'll go with the Ducks - their offense has been nuts week in week out, while USC's had the lapse against Arizona.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Arizona (2-6) @ Washington (2-5)
Hard one to pick. Arizona's had a bit of hard luck, and that new offense seems to be taking somewhat. But Washington's also a fine enough team to win games like this, even if the shine's somewhat off from their big 2-0 start. UA's luck could even out here, or Jake Locker's mini-Tebow impression could lead the Huskies to a win. I'll go with the former based mostly on gut feeling.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Memphis (3-4) @ Tulane (2-5)
It's a Tulane game, so I have to say, MAN. MATT FORTE'S REALLY GOOD. Memphis has been decent but unimpressive, so I'll actually call for Forte to lead the way to a minor upset.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
SMU (1-6) @ Tulsa (4-3)
SMU is bad! Tulsa will put up very many yards and have a victorious day!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ Utah State (0-7)
USU's probably gotta win a game sometime this year, but Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive and should be better than that record.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#5 Florida (5-2) @ #23 Georgia (5-2)
Well, Georgia's better than Auburn, so I suppose the Bulldogs have a shot. Still, they haven't been playing all that great lately, so I expect Florida to win this handily. If Georgia wasn't a running team, I'd give them more of a shot, but Florida's secondary is their weakness, and they've actually done a pretty good job controlling things on the ground.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Minnesota (1-7) @ #10 Michigan (6-2)
Oh come on now.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
#13 South Florida (6-1) @ Connecticut (6-1)
I am so close to doing it, but I won't. UConn neutralized Brian Brohm and all, but...no, no, I can't. Not two weeks in a row. Even if USF hasn't really shown an ability to run it yet. Oh, oh, maybe I could...oh, no.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Nebraska (4-4) @ #14 Texas (6-2)
Whether this will be a step up from Texas's wins over Baylor and Iowa State remains inconclusive.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
Clemson (5-2) @ Maryland (4-3)
Picking Clemson games seems beyond rhyme or reason. On a good day, they can beat anyone in the conference. On a bad day, they can lose to pretty much anyone short of Duke. I'll say that the Tigers have turned the corner after smacking the crap out of Central Michigan, but really, who knows.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (2-5) @ East Carolina (4-4)
Meh. UAB's more competitive than expected, but I wouldn't even call them mediocre within the conference. ECU's perfectly fine, nothing more, nothing less, and that should be enough against this team at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-5) @ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
WMU's been horribly disappointing. Eastern Michigan's been horrible.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Baylor (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
Baylor's not wholly awful, but they're easily the worst team in the Big 12. KSU's not at the level where this is a guaranteed win just yet, but it's pretty close.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (2-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-3)
ULM's been getting their act together after an awful start, but FAU's still one of the top Sun Belt teams until further notice.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Idaho (1-7) @ Nevada (3-4)
Nevada might be the #3 team in the WAC. They've been smacking the crap out of some teams with the Pistol offense, and this should be no exception.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
#25 Virginia (7-1) @ NC State (2-5)
I know I ranked UVA and all, but this screams of an upset to even things out. UVA's not as good as that record, NC State's not as bad as theirs. If the Wolfpack cutting down on turnovers (yes, 2 counts) last week signals the start of a trend, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
Rice (1-6) @ Marshall (0-7)
If Marshall doesn't get on the board here, they might as well give up. They're not THAT bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
Utah (5-3) @ Colorado State (1-6)
Meh. CSU didn't look all that impressive against UNLV in their first win of the year. Utah seems to have gotten their act together, so I'll go with the hot hand.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Mississippi (2-6) @ Auburn (5-3)
Brandon Cox has shown legitimate improvement. Unless he regresses horribly, this should be a definitive win at worst.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Ohio (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-3)
BGSU's been playing beter of the two as of late. That means nothing given the MAC, but still.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Stanford (3-4) @ Oregon State (4-3)
Stanford showed some legitimate improvement in beating Arizona, so they have a shot here. Still, Oregon State seems to be picking up steam as the season goes on.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington State (2-5)
I honestly have no rationale behind this pick except that it's UCLA, and this almost has to happen.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#21 Kansas (7-0) @ Texas A&M (6-2)
A&M's a perfectly above average team that can beat a whole bunch of teams unless the matchup presents a problem, such as Texas Tech's wacky offense and Miami's stout run defense. Kansas really presents no such problem - they're just pretty good overall. And, hey, A&M is too, and they're at home and might be better.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Troy (5-2) @ Arkansas State (3-4)
Given Arkansas State's implosion last week, there's almost no way I can pick them.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Middle Tennessee State (3-5) @ North Texas (1-6)
There's always the shot UNT puts up enough yardage to be a threat, but I'm not gonna pick it here. MTSU looks to be a perfectly fine Sun Belt team, which is more than the Mean Green is.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-7) @ Toledo (3-5)
NIU's awful. Awful bad. Awful awful.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#11 South Carolina (6-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
The Vols have a shot - SC's far from an unbeatable team, as Vandy obviously showed. Still, I can't help but think that Carolina will exploit that Tennessee secondary and bad. Plus, c'mon, it's Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#1 Ohio State (8-0) @ #15 Penn State (6-2)
Oh no, this could get real ugly. OSU shuts down the run almost completely, which leaves the Nittany Lions to rely on...Anthony Morelli. He's improved, but, um, well, no.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-6) @ Florida State (4-3)
Duke has a shot. No way I'm pickin' em, but Duke has a shot.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Houston (4-3) @ UTEP (4-3)
UTEP's fairly lucky to have that record. Houston's offensive firepower seems to be back at full speed, so that'll be trouble for the Miners.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
9:30 PM
Brigham Young (5-2) @ San Diego State (2-5)
BYU's good! SDSU, not so much.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#17 California (5-2) @ #9 Arizona State (7-0)
Y'know, Arizona State's defense hasn't been half bad. That said, this'll be the best offense they've faced. Really, this is a pick em - it'll probably turn into a Pac 10tastic shootout that either team can win. Still, if one team lays the beat down, I'd lean towards it being Arizona State, as the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home in recent years.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
New Mexico State (4-4) @ Hawaii (7-0)
The crap teams of the WAC have been taking their best shot and coming very close to knocking off Hawaii. I realize this is at Aloha Stadium and all, but New Mexico State is almost definitely the best of those crap teams.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Central Florida (4-3) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's run defense isn't especially great, so I expect UCF's Kevin Smith to continue his torrid pace. Then again, USM's a running team too, and UCF's run defense is about as mediocre as USM's. Oh, who knows, I'll just go with my first instinct.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#18 Boston College (7-0) @ #22 Virginia Tech (6-1)
Well. BC isn't really all that great, but then again, VT hasn't showed much of anything either except against the Dukes of the world. Still, I mean, come on. It's an undefeated team. On a Thursday. On the road. In a game that could very well be an upset. In 2007. Duh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
9:00 PM
Air Force (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-2)
UNM seems to be the favorite in the Mountain West at the moment, and Air Force has gotten a bit lucky in a few of their conference wins. I expect things to even out somewhat here, even if the craziness continuing wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
9:00 PM
Boise State (6-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
A bit of a close one. Boise seems to easily be the best team in the WAC, but it doesn't seem like a huge difference or them being a tier above. Still, while Fresno is much closer to their pre-2006 level than their implosion last year, they haven't really broken out from the WAC pack. An upset's possible, but Boise's the class of the conference until proven otherwise.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#4 West Virginia (6-1) @ #24 Rutgers (5-2)
West Virginia's done a pretty good job shutting down the run, though Ray Rice is admittedly the best back they've faced yet. Still, Rutgers needs to be at the top of their game to have a chance against the Mountaineers, and Mike Teel's spottiness doesn't have me completely convinced yet. The Mountaineers should be able to put up points here, though if fumbilitis strikes the team like it did versus USF, Rutgers can obviously win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Indiana (5-3) @ #16 Wisconsin (6-2)
An intriguing one. Indiana isn't especially known for its running game, but if Wisconsin's run defense holds to its poor form, the Hoosiers backs plus their great QB, Kellen Lewis, may be too much for the Badgers to handle. Still, the same can be said the other way around - Wisconsin has a very good QB in Tyler Donovan, and running back P.J. Hill's probably the best player on either team. This could, and frankly probably should, be an exceedingly close game, but I'll give the nod to the proven home team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
Ball State (5-3) @ #20 Illinois (5-3)
Ball State's been good in spots, but come on now. The Cardinals offense may be able to do something, but I don't see them stopping Illinois from running it often and running it for many scores.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 4
Colorado (4-4) @ Texas Tech (6-2)
Colorado stopped the Oklahoma offense, so I guess anything's possible. Plus Cody Hawkins is a bit of a gunslinger, so the Buffaloes actually have a chance if this goes into a shootout. Still, Texas Tech's been mostly on point this year, and I see no reason to pick against them.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (5-3) @ Iowa (3-5)
Iowa turned back into a pumpkin against Purdue, but the Hawkeyes remain a looming threat. They shut down Illinois's run game and forced them to rely on a QB that can't win a game by his lonesome. The same thing could well happen here. That said, Brian Hoyer's probably better than either of the Illinois quarterbacks, and Iowa's offense was bad enough themselves that they only won thanks to a horrible game-ending interception. The Hawkeyes can win, but if they also can lose if their gameplan works, I'm not picking them.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (3-4) @ Louisville (4-4)
It says something about how far Louisville's fallen when this game has intrigue. It says something more when I find myself picking Pittsburgh. I'm not sure the Pitt defense can completely stop Louisville, but the Panthers looked like a new team against Cincinnati with LaRod Stephens-Howling back. It almost reminds me of a team they played close and a team I just discussed, Michigan State, in that their two star running backs can carry the load while complementing a QB that, while solid, isn't a game-changer. Of course, since Pitt QB Pat Bostick is a freshman, that may also have to be changed to "isn't a game changer YET." Plus, really, you don't have to be a game-changer against Louisville's D, sometimes they'll just let you have some yards after catch. So, yes, I'm picking Pitt to pull off the somewhat shocking upset. Although, of course, watch Louisville go nuts and win 49-10.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (2-5) @ Wake Forest (5-2)
Wake's a fine team, which, in the ACC, will give you a 5-2 record. UNC's surprisingly good, much better than their record - they could've very well beaten South Carolina and Virginia Tech. While I'm not in love with Heels QB TJ Yates's 10/10 TD/INT ratio, parity tends to reign in the ACC and UNC is probably at Wake's level.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
Northwestern (5-3) @ Purdue (6-2)
Oh mama, this could be a fun shootout. This SHOULD be a fun shootout. Purdue has the more talented horses so I'll give them the edge at home, but Northwestern could win this very easily.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (4-4) @ #12 Kentucky (6-2)
It'd take the conflation of MSU being at the top of their game and Kentucky playing the worst they have all year in order for the Bulldogs to win this. I mean, it could happen, but Kentucky on a bad night by their standards this year (if they've even had one?) should put enough points to win this.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Akron (3-4) @ Buffalo (3-5)
Buffalo played well against Syracuse, even if they lost. Akron hasn't been all that impressive, and I am nothing if not irrationally on the Buffalo bandwagon at the moment. Even if they were UConn's rivalry game in NCAA Football for some reason for quite a few years.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Central Michigan (4-4) @ Kent State (3-5)
CMU looked to have gotten its act together, and I realize Clemson is a cut about the MAC, but wow, that was a whoopin'. Kent State's been somewhat unlucky in close games, so I'll call for things to even out here at home.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Delaware @ Navy (4-3)
Delaware's typically a pretty good I-AA, so they're probably good enough to do well against the suspect Navy D. But, hey, if I didn't pick North Dakota State vs. Minnesota, I'm not picking Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Iowa State (1-7) @ #8 Missouri (6-1)
Iowa State's been somewhat unlucky on the year, but come on now. If Missouri shut down the Texas Tech offense, this'll be ugly early and often.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-7) @ Arkansas (4-3)
FIU's the worst team in I-A, fairly easily. Way to schedule tough, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Miami of Ohio (4-4) @ Vanderbilt (4-3)
Miami's a dangerous MAC team, but I'm on the Vandy bandwagon after their win over South Carolina, where they finally played up to my preseason expectation. I'm on the VANDwagon, ha ha ha. God that was horrible.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 3
UNLV (2-6) @ Wyoming (4-3)
The Mountain West is so filled with parity, who knows. Two teams that probably deserved to win last week, but I'd say Wyoming's closer to the top of the conference while UNLV's near the bottom. And the Cowboys are at home, so there.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
#6 USC (6-1) @ #3 Oregon (6-1)
Oh boy, this one'll be fun. While USC's obviously a top-flight team, they really haven't had much of a schedule thus far, with the best team they've beaten being...god, Nebraska. Thus, while the stats say USC has the better defense by far, it's hard to tell how good the unit is when they've been playing Evan Sharpley. Then again, the inverse is somewhat true, as Oregon hasn't faced much of a defense all year, outside of Michigan who, well, you know, spread offense. Oh, what the hell, I'll go with the Ducks - their offense has been nuts week in week out, while USC's had the lapse against Arizona.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Arizona (2-6) @ Washington (2-5)
Hard one to pick. Arizona's had a bit of hard luck, and that new offense seems to be taking somewhat. But Washington's also a fine enough team to win games like this, even if the shine's somewhat off from their big 2-0 start. UA's luck could even out here, or Jake Locker's mini-Tebow impression could lead the Huskies to a win. I'll go with the former based mostly on gut feeling.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Memphis (3-4) @ Tulane (2-5)
It's a Tulane game, so I have to say, MAN. MATT FORTE'S REALLY GOOD. Memphis has been decent but unimpressive, so I'll actually call for Forte to lead the way to a minor upset.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
SMU (1-6) @ Tulsa (4-3)
SMU is bad! Tulsa will put up very many yards and have a victorious day!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ Utah State (0-7)
USU's probably gotta win a game sometime this year, but Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive and should be better than that record.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#5 Florida (5-2) @ #23 Georgia (5-2)
Well, Georgia's better than Auburn, so I suppose the Bulldogs have a shot. Still, they haven't been playing all that great lately, so I expect Florida to win this handily. If Georgia wasn't a running team, I'd give them more of a shot, but Florida's secondary is their weakness, and they've actually done a pretty good job controlling things on the ground.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Minnesota (1-7) @ #10 Michigan (6-2)
Oh come on now.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
#13 South Florida (6-1) @ Connecticut (6-1)
I am so close to doing it, but I won't. UConn neutralized Brian Brohm and all, but...no, no, I can't. Not two weeks in a row. Even if USF hasn't really shown an ability to run it yet. Oh, oh, maybe I could...oh, no.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Nebraska (4-4) @ #14 Texas (6-2)
Whether this will be a step up from Texas's wins over Baylor and Iowa State remains inconclusive.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
Clemson (5-2) @ Maryland (4-3)
Picking Clemson games seems beyond rhyme or reason. On a good day, they can beat anyone in the conference. On a bad day, they can lose to pretty much anyone short of Duke. I'll say that the Tigers have turned the corner after smacking the crap out of Central Michigan, but really, who knows.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (2-5) @ East Carolina (4-4)
Meh. UAB's more competitive than expected, but I wouldn't even call them mediocre within the conference. ECU's perfectly fine, nothing more, nothing less, and that should be enough against this team at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-5) @ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
WMU's been horribly disappointing. Eastern Michigan's been horrible.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Baylor (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
Baylor's not wholly awful, but they're easily the worst team in the Big 12. KSU's not at the level where this is a guaranteed win just yet, but it's pretty close.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (2-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-3)
ULM's been getting their act together after an awful start, but FAU's still one of the top Sun Belt teams until further notice.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Idaho (1-7) @ Nevada (3-4)
Nevada might be the #3 team in the WAC. They've been smacking the crap out of some teams with the Pistol offense, and this should be no exception.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
#25 Virginia (7-1) @ NC State (2-5)
I know I ranked UVA and all, but this screams of an upset to even things out. UVA's not as good as that record, NC State's not as bad as theirs. If the Wolfpack cutting down on turnovers (yes, 2 counts) last week signals the start of a trend, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
Rice (1-6) @ Marshall (0-7)
If Marshall doesn't get on the board here, they might as well give up. They're not THAT bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
Utah (5-3) @ Colorado State (1-6)
Meh. CSU didn't look all that impressive against UNLV in their first win of the year. Utah seems to have gotten their act together, so I'll go with the hot hand.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Mississippi (2-6) @ Auburn (5-3)
Brandon Cox has shown legitimate improvement. Unless he regresses horribly, this should be a definitive win at worst.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Ohio (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-3)
BGSU's been playing beter of the two as of late. That means nothing given the MAC, but still.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Stanford (3-4) @ Oregon State (4-3)
Stanford showed some legitimate improvement in beating Arizona, so they have a shot here. Still, Oregon State seems to be picking up steam as the season goes on.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington State (2-5)
I honestly have no rationale behind this pick except that it's UCLA, and this almost has to happen.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#21 Kansas (7-0) @ Texas A&M (6-2)
A&M's a perfectly above average team that can beat a whole bunch of teams unless the matchup presents a problem, such as Texas Tech's wacky offense and Miami's stout run defense. Kansas really presents no such problem - they're just pretty good overall. And, hey, A&M is too, and they're at home and might be better.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Troy (5-2) @ Arkansas State (3-4)
Given Arkansas State's implosion last week, there's almost no way I can pick them.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Middle Tennessee State (3-5) @ North Texas (1-6)
There's always the shot UNT puts up enough yardage to be a threat, but I'm not gonna pick it here. MTSU looks to be a perfectly fine Sun Belt team, which is more than the Mean Green is.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-7) @ Toledo (3-5)
NIU's awful. Awful bad. Awful awful.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#11 South Carolina (6-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
The Vols have a shot - SC's far from an unbeatable team, as Vandy obviously showed. Still, I can't help but think that Carolina will exploit that Tennessee secondary and bad. Plus, c'mon, it's Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#1 Ohio State (8-0) @ #15 Penn State (6-2)
Oh no, this could get real ugly. OSU shuts down the run almost completely, which leaves the Nittany Lions to rely on...Anthony Morelli. He's improved, but, um, well, no.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-6) @ Florida State (4-3)
Duke has a shot. No way I'm pickin' em, but Duke has a shot.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Houston (4-3) @ UTEP (4-3)
UTEP's fairly lucky to have that record. Houston's offensive firepower seems to be back at full speed, so that'll be trouble for the Miners.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
9:30 PM
Brigham Young (5-2) @ San Diego State (2-5)
BYU's good! SDSU, not so much.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#17 California (5-2) @ #9 Arizona State (7-0)
Y'know, Arizona State's defense hasn't been half bad. That said, this'll be the best offense they've faced. Really, this is a pick em - it'll probably turn into a Pac 10tastic shootout that either team can win. Still, if one team lays the beat down, I'd lean towards it being Arizona State, as the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home in recent years.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
New Mexico State (4-4) @ Hawaii (7-0)
The crap teams of the WAC have been taking their best shot and coming very close to knocking off Hawaii. I realize this is at Aloha Stadium and all, but New Mexico State is almost definitely the best of those crap teams.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Central Florida (4-3) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's run defense isn't especially great, so I expect UCF's Kevin Smith to continue his torrid pace. Then again, USM's a running team too, and UCF's run defense is about as mediocre as USM's. Oh, who knows, I'll just go with my first instinct.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Week 8 Preview: Saturday and Sunday
With the UConn game already previewed, I had to put this sentence from rivals.com's Big East rundown here, since I can think of nothing that sums up UConn football more than this sentence:
Police urged Connecticut fans to allow more time for their commute to Rentschler Field for Friday's game against Louisville, not because of the crowd anticipated for the game but because of the opening of a massive outdoor sporting goods store nearby.
Perfect.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#18 Penn State (5-2) @ Indiana (5-2)
This would've been much more of a toss-up had PSU not looked so impressive in beating Wisconsin last week, and had Indiana not imploded against Michigan State. As with pretty much any Nittany Lions opponent, Indiana has a chance here if Anthony Morelli implodes like he has many times during the year. Still, even though IU QB Kellen Lewis seems to be one of the fastest-improving players in the conference, if he couldn't handle Michigan State's D, I doubt the Hoosiers will do much against that stout Penn State unit.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Northern Illinois (1-6) @ #19 Wisconsin (5-2)
I don't really get why people are so down on the Badgers recently - the run defense is a liability, but there's still a lot to like. I guess NIU could possibly run enough times and well enough to somehow win it, but it's been a horrible season and the Huskies haven't shown enough offense to beat most other MAC teams, let alone a team like Wisconsin.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
#23 Cincinnati (6-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-4)
Cincy's a beatable team, and Pitt has some upside, but since Dave Wannstedt's Achilles injury didn't take him out for the game, I just can't pick the Panthers.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3
Army (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (4-3)
Tech seems like one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth. Well, it's definitely worth being able to beat Army easy at home.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 5
Central Michigan (4-3) @ Clemson (4-2)
CMU seems to have gotten their act together, so they could actually pose a threat if the Bad Clemson shows up, as it's tended to lately. However, the Tigers will be facing a MAC defense, so figure on either QB Cullen Harper or the RB duo of Davis and Spiller to have a huge day and let Clemson win comfortably.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
Iowa (3-4) @ Purdue (5-2)
Iowa kind of showed signs of life, being able to stop the run enough against Illinois to win; but then again, the Illini are a run-dependent team and Juice Williams was actually accurate if not overly productive. Purdue's still relatively unproven, but they've shown a pretty good passing game if nothing else; even if they only put up twentysomething points, I don't think Iowa's offense will be able to follow suit.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (4-3) @ Temple (2-5)
Miami of Ohio completely smacked the crap out of Bowling Green in an unexpected manner, while Temple has a good day beating a sliding Akron team. Given the MAC's unpredictable nature, and that the RedHawks look like a MAC contender...
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1
North Dakota State @ Minnesota (1-6)
NDSU's the #1 team in I-AA at the moment, and absolutely beat the hell out of Central Michigan earlier this year. Looking at their stats shows a passing offense that is accurate if not amazingly productive, so the Bison are fully capable of exploiting that Minnesota D. I typically don't pick I-AA teams to win, so I'll assume the Gophers will somehow pull it out, but if there ever was a game that screamed out to me that it'd happen, this would be the one.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#3 Oklahoma (6-1) @ Iowa State (1-6)
And now playing Seneca Wallace, Bret Meyer! This'll be a smashing.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Vanderbilt (3-3) @ #11 South Carolina (6-1)
SC's a very good team, but seems like a prime upset candidate - good not great, just kind of chugging along not all that impressively. However, Vandy hasn't really lived up to expectations - if they play up to their talent, they could pull off the win, but they haven't really shown that thus far this season. And since they haven't, I won't pick them.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
#14 Texas (5-2) @ Baylor (3-4)
Much like Iowa State was, this should be an impressive win for Texas that means absolutely nothing. Well, bowl eligibility, but that's it.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
#22 Tennessee (4-2) @ Alabama (5-2)
Alabama's probably the more talented team, but the Crimson Tide have been amazingly unimpressive starting with the Florida State loss. They've shown pretty much nothing against Houston and Ole Miss, but again, there's the talent there where they could rebound with a shitkicking at any moment. That said, I'll give the Vols the edge here - if Alabama had been consistently shutting down the pass, I'd give it to the Tide, but Erik Ainge is fully capable of putting this one out of reach, especially if the Bama running game disappoints. But really, this could go either way.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Wake Forest (4-2) @ Navy (4-2)
Wake's a perfectly average team, which will make some noise in the perfectly average ACC. Navy's Navy - they'll run for a lot of yards and points, and this year the defense is suspect enough to let any team in it. I'll say that Navy pulls it off based on absolutely no evidence except my gut, which is also hungry.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Wyoming (4-2) @ Air Force (5-2)
The Alphabetical Bookend Bowl. The MWC's quite paritytastic this year, and Wyoming looked like the favorite in the conference before being brought back to earth last week against New Mexico. So, who knows. AFA's 3-1 in Mountain West play, so they've looked good, but Wyoming's win over Virginia is the best either team has on their resume. I've been higher on Wyoming throughout the year so I'll give the edge to the Cowboys, but really, this is a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
Arkansas (3-3) @ Mississippi (2-5)
I think Arkansas has reached the point where one has to ask "Is Darren McFadden enough?" I thought he would be to win games like this, but Ole Miss has been more competitive than expected, and Arkansas QB Casey Dick has shown absolutely no signs of allowing the Razorbacks to be competitive in a shootout. I'll give McFadden the benefit of the doubt in carrying Arkansas to a win here, despite his horrible performance last week; however, as far as the SEC goes, this one may be pretty much it.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Ball State (4-3) @ Western Michigan (3-4)
WMU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, even if the Broncos are showing faint signs of life. As for Ball State, their loss to Central Michigan looks better now that CMU seems to have gotten their act together, and that offense is quite good. Anything can happen with the MAC, but I'll give the edge to who appears to be the better team.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
2:05 PM
Texas A&M (5-2) @ Nebraska (4-3)
TAMU's a running team, so Nebraska may not hemorrhage passing yardage like they have been, but they haven't shown much of an ability to stop the run either. I guess there's the possibility that Nebraska can win a shootout, but if OK State did what they did to the Huskers, I can't see the Aggies doing much worse.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Memphis (2-4) @ Rice (1-5)
Rice showed signs of life against the Houston D, but that still brings them from "worst team in I-A" contender up to, like, somewhere in the top five. Memphis is disappointing, but at least they don't appear to be outright bad.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 2
3:05 PM
Nevada (2-4) @ Utah State (0-6)
Nevada is way better than that record, as their high-powered offense and taking Boise to OT showed. Utah State is...not.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Michigan State (5-2) @ #1 Ohio State (7-0)
The upset could quite well happen, especially if Michigan State plays as well as they did in their stomping of Indiana last week. The only big question mark is how MSU back Javon Ringer will do against the OSU run defense, which ranks a stout #2 in the nation behind BC. Of course, the thing is that Ringer is BY FAR the best back OSU's faced to date, behind...Jerod Void?, so there's a chicken/egg situation. Plus Michigan State's defense hasn't been all too wonderful, so even if the Buckeyes D can only slow, not stop Ringer, OSU should be able to put up enough points to win. But of course, this year, if an upset can happen, there's a very good chance it will.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1
Mississippi State (4-3) @ #5 West Virginia (5-1)
I'm not exactly sure how Mississippi State got 4 wins. Well, weak schedule and luck, duh. But anyway, WVU should put up a whole bunch of points, and MSU ain't keepin' pace.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
#6 Florida (4-2) @ #13 Kentucky (6-1)
Much like LSU was a good matchup for Kentucky, I think Florida is quite a bad one for the Wildcats. Florida's probably a better team on both sides of the ball, and the most certain thing in this game is that Florida will score their fair share of points against a Kentucky D that, while better than expected, probably can't handle an offense like the Gators'. And even in a shootout, even though I think Woodson may be a better QB than Tebow (and even if so, barely), I would trust the Florida defense to come up with the difference-making INT or two than the other way around.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
#20 Texas Tech (6-1) @ #8 Missouri (5-1)
POINTS!!!! Missouri's the better overall team, but in a shootout like this should degenerate to, it doesn't really matter. Still, I'll give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt since they did THAT to Nebraska, who's essentially a worse Texas Tech, and probably not 35 points worth of deficit worse.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
#9 USC (5-1) @ Notre Dame (1-6)
If this isn't a rebound win for USC that borders on an ugly blowout, then I just don't know anymore.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
#10 California (5-1) @ UCLA (4-2)
UCLA's a hard team to pin down - they can look explosive at times, but they're just so...disappointingly UCLAish. Still, if Nate Longshore is back at full strength, Cal should win fairly easily in what could become a shootout. If Kevin Riley's in, I still give Cal the edge, but it could essentially go either way. So I'll split the difference. LOGIC.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
Arkansas State (3-3) @ Middle Tennessee State (2-5)
ASU has a somewhat inexplicable loss to ULM (given how the Warhawks have performed otherwise this year), but have looked better by far than MTSU most of the year. Still, they're two teams who have pretty good offenses, so this could turn into a shootout that goes either way. Hooray the Sun Belt.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Miami (4-3) @ Florida State (4-2)
Oh jeez. A team that's sometimes good, sometimes bad at a team that's consistently meh. Florida State just bores me - they'll probably win 7 to 9 games, but they don't really do it on the basis of anything in particular - they're just kind of overall good enough. If Miami's offense shows up, they can beat "good enough", if it doesn't, expect an absolutely exciting 10-3 Florida State win. I'll go with the consistent team at home, but god, yawn.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Texas (1-5) @ Troy (4-2)
Well, UNT got a win, so all that yardage led to something. If Troy manages to lose this one, picking games in the Sun Belt is officially useless.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Bowling Green (3-3) @ Kent State (3-4)
Oh who the hell knows. Kent State seems like the better overall team, if not by much, though BGSU seems to have the best offense, and has the biggest win between the two in Minnesota. I'll give the home team the edge, why the hell not.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Buffalo (3-4) @ Syracuse (1-6)
Wow, I'm actually doing it. One of these teams is passable, one of these teams is bad. I'm actually giving it to the better playing team, which is
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (4-2) @ Central Florida (3-3)
An intriguing one. Gus Malzahn's offense has taken, and Tulsa's starting to put up some crazy yardage and scoring numbers. However, UCF's Kevin Smith is probably the best player on the field, as he was the NCAA's rushing leader before being shut down by South Florida last week. Still, for all that, when I look at how offenses as a whole are doing, Tulsa seems to have a clear edge - this could go either way, but I see Kevin Smith getting his and Tulsa winning a 49-34 game or something like that.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
NC State (1-5) @ East Carolina (4-3)
Ehhhh. NCSU's somewhat unlucky, and ECU's lucky, so this is kind of a crapshoot. Oh what the hell, I'll say NC State finally starts turning this around, because come on, they're not THAT bad and these things should eventually even out.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (1-6)
FAU's a team that can compete with pretty much anyone except the Kentuckys, Oklahoma States, Texas Techs of the world - the guys with the crazy high powered offenses. ULL is not one of those teams.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-4) @ Fresno State (4-2)
Could be a neat little matchup - SJSU's had some big offensive days against the suspect defenses of the WAC. Unfortunately, Fresno seems like a legitimate team. SJSU has more of a chance than those two sentences suggest, but still - the Bulldogs should be the clear favorite.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
#25 Kansas (6-0) @ Colorado (4-3)
Kansas didn't really prove they were overrated or underrated against Kansas State, so...who knows with the Jayhawks. I'll give their apparently high-powered offense the edge, even if this is probably the best defense KU has faced to date. Hooray question marks!
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 1
Eastern Washington @ Brigham Young (4-2)
Well, at least this is easy to pick. But I'm so disappointed in you, BYU.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 5
7:00 PM
Stanford (2-4) @ Arizona (2-5)
This really could go either way, as both teams are prone to having very bad weeks. It's just that Arizona's other weeks are good, while Stanford's are more...mediocre.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
Boise State (5-1) @ Louisiana Tech (2-4)
Louisiana Tech's very much more at the New Mexico State level than the Nevada level. This likely won't be pretty.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Florida International (0-6) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-5)
ULM hasn't lived up to preseason expectations, but they still should be way better than FIU, who has lived up to expectations that they'd be the worst team in I-A with flying colors.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Houston (3-3) @ UAB (2-4)
UAB hasn't been quite as awful as expected, but I doubt they'll be able to handle Houston. The Cougars offense has days where they're as high-powered as ever, and if this is one, it could get ugly. And if not...it could still get somewhat ugly.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Ohio (3-4) @ Toledo (2-5)
Toledo's not all that bad - they're a perfectly average MAC team that could've used a break or two. While Ohio is...also a perfectly average MAC team. I'll give to the home team, because when in doubt, guess that the MAC will be as annoyingly parity-filled as possible.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 1
7:05 PM
Kansas State (4-2) @ Oklahoma State (4-3)
OK State seems to be over their early-season doldrums, which actually makes this interesting. I view the KSU defense as not good enough to stop OK State from scoring a good amount of points and making this a shootout, and I don't think K-State has the horses to run (or pass) with the Cowboys.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
#4 Oregon (5-1) @ Washington (2-4)
Washington's slowly sliding, and if the Huskies got beaten that easily by Arizona State, hoo boy. Though I have a weird gut feeling this'll be an upset, all rational thought says the Ducks will kick the shit out of U-Dub.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#15 Michigan (5-2) @ #17 Illinois (5-2)
This could very well wind up being a Michigan blowout that doesn't accurately reflect Illinois's talent level. I say that because based on the Purdue game, Michigan's back to being insanely great against the run. And what does Illinois do? Uh oh.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Idaho (1-6) @ New Mexico State (3-4)
NMSU's been disappointing, as they've been part of the WAC second-class rather than having a breakthrough year. Still, there seems to be enough there where they should at least beat the Idahos of the conference. I hope. C'mon, the Aggies can pass.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
Virginia (6-1) @ Maryland (4-2)
Virginia just kind of keeps scraping by fairly unimpressively, while Maryland's more or less deserved to win when they've done so. For a change. UMD's probably the better team, but the matchup is in UVA's favor - they should be able to neutralize the run, and I'm not quite sold on Chris Turner being a QB that cane take over a game just yet. Still, I could be proven wrong.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
Tulane (1-5) @ SMU (1-5)
Tulane's been more competitive than expected, while SMU's...kind of depressed me in what I expected to be a breakout year. Both teams are still suspect enough where this could go either way, but Tulane RB Matt Forte's been great enough that he can carry the Green Wave to a win here.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
8:30 PM
New Mexico (4-2) @ San Diego State (2-4)
SDSU's one of the weak sisters of the league. Not that that means much with the MWC's parity, but since UNM beat Wyoming pretty handily, they should be able to take a team that, if nothing else, seems a good deal worse than Wyoming.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Auburn (5-2) @ #2 LSU (6-1)
Uh, yeah. Auburn's fine, but they're not all that great. Even if Brandon Cox has improved legitimately, I don't think this'll be a game where that'll be apparent at all.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Colorado State (0-6) @ UNLV (2-5)
You can do it, Colorado State. Come on. They're not all that bad a team, they just keep losing fairly close. They gotta beat a I-A team, right, and this is their best chance. Come on.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (3-3) @ Marshall (0-6)
Kind of the same situation as CSU - Marshall should've gotten a win somewhere along the way. Still, Southern Miss is far from a UNLV - while the Golden Eagles have been quite a disappointment this year, they still have enough talent where they should win this one.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
Police urged Connecticut fans to allow more time for their commute to Rentschler Field for Friday's game against Louisville, not because of the crowd anticipated for the game but because of the opening of a massive outdoor sporting goods store nearby.
Perfect.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#18 Penn State (5-2) @ Indiana (5-2)
This would've been much more of a toss-up had PSU not looked so impressive in beating Wisconsin last week, and had Indiana not imploded against Michigan State. As with pretty much any Nittany Lions opponent, Indiana has a chance here if Anthony Morelli implodes like he has many times during the year. Still, even though IU QB Kellen Lewis seems to be one of the fastest-improving players in the conference, if he couldn't handle Michigan State's D, I doubt the Hoosiers will do much against that stout Penn State unit.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Northern Illinois (1-6) @ #19 Wisconsin (5-2)
I don't really get why people are so down on the Badgers recently - the run defense is a liability, but there's still a lot to like. I guess NIU could possibly run enough times and well enough to somehow win it, but it's been a horrible season and the Huskies haven't shown enough offense to beat most other MAC teams, let alone a team like Wisconsin.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
#23 Cincinnati (6-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-4)
Cincy's a beatable team, and Pitt has some upside, but since Dave Wannstedt's Achilles injury didn't take him out for the game, I just can't pick the Panthers.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3
Army (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (4-3)
Tech seems like one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth. Well, it's definitely worth being able to beat Army easy at home.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 5
Central Michigan (4-3) @ Clemson (4-2)
CMU seems to have gotten their act together, so they could actually pose a threat if the Bad Clemson shows up, as it's tended to lately. However, the Tigers will be facing a MAC defense, so figure on either QB Cullen Harper or the RB duo of Davis and Spiller to have a huge day and let Clemson win comfortably.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
Iowa (3-4) @ Purdue (5-2)
Iowa kind of showed signs of life, being able to stop the run enough against Illinois to win; but then again, the Illini are a run-dependent team and Juice Williams was actually accurate if not overly productive. Purdue's still relatively unproven, but they've shown a pretty good passing game if nothing else; even if they only put up twentysomething points, I don't think Iowa's offense will be able to follow suit.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (4-3) @ Temple (2-5)
Miami of Ohio completely smacked the crap out of Bowling Green in an unexpected manner, while Temple has a good day beating a sliding Akron team. Given the MAC's unpredictable nature, and that the RedHawks look like a MAC contender...
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1
North Dakota State @ Minnesota (1-6)
NDSU's the #1 team in I-AA at the moment, and absolutely beat the hell out of Central Michigan earlier this year. Looking at their stats shows a passing offense that is accurate if not amazingly productive, so the Bison are fully capable of exploiting that Minnesota D. I typically don't pick I-AA teams to win, so I'll assume the Gophers will somehow pull it out, but if there ever was a game that screamed out to me that it'd happen, this would be the one.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#3 Oklahoma (6-1) @ Iowa State (1-6)
And now playing Seneca Wallace, Bret Meyer! This'll be a smashing.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Vanderbilt (3-3) @ #11 South Carolina (6-1)
SC's a very good team, but seems like a prime upset candidate - good not great, just kind of chugging along not all that impressively. However, Vandy hasn't really lived up to expectations - if they play up to their talent, they could pull off the win, but they haven't really shown that thus far this season. And since they haven't, I won't pick them.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
#14 Texas (5-2) @ Baylor (3-4)
Much like Iowa State was, this should be an impressive win for Texas that means absolutely nothing. Well, bowl eligibility, but that's it.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
#22 Tennessee (4-2) @ Alabama (5-2)
Alabama's probably the more talented team, but the Crimson Tide have been amazingly unimpressive starting with the Florida State loss. They've shown pretty much nothing against Houston and Ole Miss, but again, there's the talent there where they could rebound with a shitkicking at any moment. That said, I'll give the Vols the edge here - if Alabama had been consistently shutting down the pass, I'd give it to the Tide, but Erik Ainge is fully capable of putting this one out of reach, especially if the Bama running game disappoints. But really, this could go either way.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Wake Forest (4-2) @ Navy (4-2)
Wake's a perfectly average team, which will make some noise in the perfectly average ACC. Navy's Navy - they'll run for a lot of yards and points, and this year the defense is suspect enough to let any team in it. I'll say that Navy pulls it off based on absolutely no evidence except my gut, which is also hungry.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Wyoming (4-2) @ Air Force (5-2)
The Alphabetical Bookend Bowl. The MWC's quite paritytastic this year, and Wyoming looked like the favorite in the conference before being brought back to earth last week against New Mexico. So, who knows. AFA's 3-1 in Mountain West play, so they've looked good, but Wyoming's win over Virginia is the best either team has on their resume. I've been higher on Wyoming throughout the year so I'll give the edge to the Cowboys, but really, this is a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
Arkansas (3-3) @ Mississippi (2-5)
I think Arkansas has reached the point where one has to ask "Is Darren McFadden enough?" I thought he would be to win games like this, but Ole Miss has been more competitive than expected, and Arkansas QB Casey Dick has shown absolutely no signs of allowing the Razorbacks to be competitive in a shootout. I'll give McFadden the benefit of the doubt in carrying Arkansas to a win here, despite his horrible performance last week; however, as far as the SEC goes, this one may be pretty much it.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Ball State (4-3) @ Western Michigan (3-4)
WMU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, even if the Broncos are showing faint signs of life. As for Ball State, their loss to Central Michigan looks better now that CMU seems to have gotten their act together, and that offense is quite good. Anything can happen with the MAC, but I'll give the edge to who appears to be the better team.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
2:05 PM
Texas A&M (5-2) @ Nebraska (4-3)
TAMU's a running team, so Nebraska may not hemorrhage passing yardage like they have been, but they haven't shown much of an ability to stop the run either. I guess there's the possibility that Nebraska can win a shootout, but if OK State did what they did to the Huskers, I can't see the Aggies doing much worse.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Memphis (2-4) @ Rice (1-5)
Rice showed signs of life against the Houston D, but that still brings them from "worst team in I-A" contender up to, like, somewhere in the top five. Memphis is disappointing, but at least they don't appear to be outright bad.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 2
3:05 PM
Nevada (2-4) @ Utah State (0-6)
Nevada is way better than that record, as their high-powered offense and taking Boise to OT showed. Utah State is...not.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Michigan State (5-2) @ #1 Ohio State (7-0)
The upset could quite well happen, especially if Michigan State plays as well as they did in their stomping of Indiana last week. The only big question mark is how MSU back Javon Ringer will do against the OSU run defense, which ranks a stout #2 in the nation behind BC. Of course, the thing is that Ringer is BY FAR the best back OSU's faced to date, behind...Jerod Void?, so there's a chicken/egg situation. Plus Michigan State's defense hasn't been all too wonderful, so even if the Buckeyes D can only slow, not stop Ringer, OSU should be able to put up enough points to win. But of course, this year, if an upset can happen, there's a very good chance it will.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1
Mississippi State (4-3) @ #5 West Virginia (5-1)
I'm not exactly sure how Mississippi State got 4 wins. Well, weak schedule and luck, duh. But anyway, WVU should put up a whole bunch of points, and MSU ain't keepin' pace.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
#6 Florida (4-2) @ #13 Kentucky (6-1)
Much like LSU was a good matchup for Kentucky, I think Florida is quite a bad one for the Wildcats. Florida's probably a better team on both sides of the ball, and the most certain thing in this game is that Florida will score their fair share of points against a Kentucky D that, while better than expected, probably can't handle an offense like the Gators'. And even in a shootout, even though I think Woodson may be a better QB than Tebow (and even if so, barely), I would trust the Florida defense to come up with the difference-making INT or two than the other way around.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
#20 Texas Tech (6-1) @ #8 Missouri (5-1)
POINTS!!!! Missouri's the better overall team, but in a shootout like this should degenerate to, it doesn't really matter. Still, I'll give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt since they did THAT to Nebraska, who's essentially a worse Texas Tech, and probably not 35 points worth of deficit worse.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
#9 USC (5-1) @ Notre Dame (1-6)
If this isn't a rebound win for USC that borders on an ugly blowout, then I just don't know anymore.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
#10 California (5-1) @ UCLA (4-2)
UCLA's a hard team to pin down - they can look explosive at times, but they're just so...disappointingly UCLAish. Still, if Nate Longshore is back at full strength, Cal should win fairly easily in what could become a shootout. If Kevin Riley's in, I still give Cal the edge, but it could essentially go either way. So I'll split the difference. LOGIC.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
Arkansas State (3-3) @ Middle Tennessee State (2-5)
ASU has a somewhat inexplicable loss to ULM (given how the Warhawks have performed otherwise this year), but have looked better by far than MTSU most of the year. Still, they're two teams who have pretty good offenses, so this could turn into a shootout that goes either way. Hooray the Sun Belt.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Miami (4-3) @ Florida State (4-2)
Oh jeez. A team that's sometimes good, sometimes bad at a team that's consistently meh. Florida State just bores me - they'll probably win 7 to 9 games, but they don't really do it on the basis of anything in particular - they're just kind of overall good enough. If Miami's offense shows up, they can beat "good enough", if it doesn't, expect an absolutely exciting 10-3 Florida State win. I'll go with the consistent team at home, but god, yawn.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Texas (1-5) @ Troy (4-2)
Well, UNT got a win, so all that yardage led to something. If Troy manages to lose this one, picking games in the Sun Belt is officially useless.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Bowling Green (3-3) @ Kent State (3-4)
Oh who the hell knows. Kent State seems like the better overall team, if not by much, though BGSU seems to have the best offense, and has the biggest win between the two in Minnesota. I'll give the home team the edge, why the hell not.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Buffalo (3-4) @ Syracuse (1-6)
Wow, I'm actually doing it. One of these teams is passable, one of these teams is bad. I'm actually giving it to the better playing team, which is
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (4-2) @ Central Florida (3-3)
An intriguing one. Gus Malzahn's offense has taken, and Tulsa's starting to put up some crazy yardage and scoring numbers. However, UCF's Kevin Smith is probably the best player on the field, as he was the NCAA's rushing leader before being shut down by South Florida last week. Still, for all that, when I look at how offenses as a whole are doing, Tulsa seems to have a clear edge - this could go either way, but I see Kevin Smith getting his and Tulsa winning a 49-34 game or something like that.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
NC State (1-5) @ East Carolina (4-3)
Ehhhh. NCSU's somewhat unlucky, and ECU's lucky, so this is kind of a crapshoot. Oh what the hell, I'll say NC State finally starts turning this around, because come on, they're not THAT bad and these things should eventually even out.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (1-6)
FAU's a team that can compete with pretty much anyone except the Kentuckys, Oklahoma States, Texas Techs of the world - the guys with the crazy high powered offenses. ULL is not one of those teams.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-4) @ Fresno State (4-2)
Could be a neat little matchup - SJSU's had some big offensive days against the suspect defenses of the WAC. Unfortunately, Fresno seems like a legitimate team. SJSU has more of a chance than those two sentences suggest, but still - the Bulldogs should be the clear favorite.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
#25 Kansas (6-0) @ Colorado (4-3)
Kansas didn't really prove they were overrated or underrated against Kansas State, so...who knows with the Jayhawks. I'll give their apparently high-powered offense the edge, even if this is probably the best defense KU has faced to date. Hooray question marks!
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 1
Eastern Washington @ Brigham Young (4-2)
Well, at least this is easy to pick. But I'm so disappointed in you, BYU.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 5
7:00 PM
Stanford (2-4) @ Arizona (2-5)
This really could go either way, as both teams are prone to having very bad weeks. It's just that Arizona's other weeks are good, while Stanford's are more...mediocre.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
Boise State (5-1) @ Louisiana Tech (2-4)
Louisiana Tech's very much more at the New Mexico State level than the Nevada level. This likely won't be pretty.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Florida International (0-6) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-5)
ULM hasn't lived up to preseason expectations, but they still should be way better than FIU, who has lived up to expectations that they'd be the worst team in I-A with flying colors.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Houston (3-3) @ UAB (2-4)
UAB hasn't been quite as awful as expected, but I doubt they'll be able to handle Houston. The Cougars offense has days where they're as high-powered as ever, and if this is one, it could get ugly. And if not...it could still get somewhat ugly.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Ohio (3-4) @ Toledo (2-5)
Toledo's not all that bad - they're a perfectly average MAC team that could've used a break or two. While Ohio is...also a perfectly average MAC team. I'll give to the home team, because when in doubt, guess that the MAC will be as annoyingly parity-filled as possible.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 1
7:05 PM
Kansas State (4-2) @ Oklahoma State (4-3)
OK State seems to be over their early-season doldrums, which actually makes this interesting. I view the KSU defense as not good enough to stop OK State from scoring a good amount of points and making this a shootout, and I don't think K-State has the horses to run (or pass) with the Cowboys.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
#4 Oregon (5-1) @ Washington (2-4)
Washington's slowly sliding, and if the Huskies got beaten that easily by Arizona State, hoo boy. Though I have a weird gut feeling this'll be an upset, all rational thought says the Ducks will kick the shit out of U-Dub.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#15 Michigan (5-2) @ #17 Illinois (5-2)
This could very well wind up being a Michigan blowout that doesn't accurately reflect Illinois's talent level. I say that because based on the Purdue game, Michigan's back to being insanely great against the run. And what does Illinois do? Uh oh.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Idaho (1-6) @ New Mexico State (3-4)
NMSU's been disappointing, as they've been part of the WAC second-class rather than having a breakthrough year. Still, there seems to be enough there where they should at least beat the Idahos of the conference. I hope. C'mon, the Aggies can pass.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
Virginia (6-1) @ Maryland (4-2)
Virginia just kind of keeps scraping by fairly unimpressively, while Maryland's more or less deserved to win when they've done so. For a change. UMD's probably the better team, but the matchup is in UVA's favor - they should be able to neutralize the run, and I'm not quite sold on Chris Turner being a QB that cane take over a game just yet. Still, I could be proven wrong.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
Tulane (1-5) @ SMU (1-5)
Tulane's been more competitive than expected, while SMU's...kind of depressed me in what I expected to be a breakout year. Both teams are still suspect enough where this could go either way, but Tulane RB Matt Forte's been great enough that he can carry the Green Wave to a win here.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
8:30 PM
New Mexico (4-2) @ San Diego State (2-4)
SDSU's one of the weak sisters of the league. Not that that means much with the MWC's parity, but since UNM beat Wyoming pretty handily, they should be able to take a team that, if nothing else, seems a good deal worse than Wyoming.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Auburn (5-2) @ #2 LSU (6-1)
Uh, yeah. Auburn's fine, but they're not all that great. Even if Brandon Cox has improved legitimately, I don't think this'll be a game where that'll be apparent at all.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Colorado State (0-6) @ UNLV (2-5)
You can do it, Colorado State. Come on. They're not all that bad a team, they just keep losing fairly close. They gotta beat a I-A team, right, and this is their best chance. Come on.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (3-3) @ Marshall (0-6)
Kind of the same situation as CSU - Marshall should've gotten a win somewhere along the way. Still, Southern Miss is far from a UNLV - while the Golden Eagles have been quite a disappointment this year, they still have enough talent where they should win this one.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
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