Okay, I think I made it through this week. I seem to be in one piece, yes.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment