One of the big factors in deciding who overachieved and underachieved during the year and who will rebound/regress the next is yardage. Turnovers and special teams touchdowns may be nice, but they're somewhat random occurences; yardage should, to an extent, show who outplayed who. Accordingly, I've gone through every I-A game this year, tabulated the yardage, and figured out the win-loss records based purely on yardage.
A note: There were three games where yardage was even, with Notre Dame oddly being involved in two: USC/Notre Dame, Notre Dame/Purdue, and TCU/Baylor. I rewarded each team 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses for each "tie."
Another note: Oh, and I didn't include conference title games, since they obviously depend on standings that may or may not be accurate in this model.
So, my so called "pure" yardage standings:
ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson 10-2 (7-1)
2. Boston College 8-4 (5-3)
3. Florida State 7-5 (5-3)
4. NC State 6-6 (5-3)
5. Wake Forest 5-7 (2-6)
6. Maryland 1-11 (0-8)
ACC Coastal:
1. Miami 8-4 (5-3)
2. Virginia Tech 9-3 (5-3)
3. Georgia Tech 6-6 (4-4)
4. Virginia 5-7 (4-4)
5. North Carolina 5-7 (4-4)
6. Duke 2-10 (2-6)
Big East:
1. Louisville 10-2 (5-2)
2. West Virginia 10-2 (5-2)
3. South Florida 9-3 (5-2)
4. Cincinnati 7-5 (4-3)
5. Rutgers 8-4 (4-3)
6. Connecticut 6-6 (2-5)
7. Pittsburgh 6-6 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 2-10 (1-6)
Big Ten:
1. Ohio State 12-0 (8-0)
2. Michigan 10-2 (7-1)
3. Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
4. Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
5. Illinois 7-5 (4-4)
6. Penn State 7-5 (4-4)
7. Purdue 5.5-7.5 (3-5)
8. Northwestern 6-6 (3-5)
9. Indiana 4-8 (2-6)
10. Michigan State 5-7 (1-7)
11. Minnesota 3-9 (1-7)
Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska 7-5 (4-4)
2. Missouri 8-4 (4-4)
3. Kansas State 6-6 (4-4)
4. Kansas 6-6 (3-5)
5. Colorado 4-8 (3-5)
6. Iowa State 4-8 (1-7)
Big 12 South:
1. Texas A&M 11-1 (7-1)
2. Texas Tech 8-4 (6-2)
3. Oklahoma 8-4 (5-3)
4. Texas 8-4 (5-3)
5. Oklahoma State 7-5 (4-4)
6. Baylor 4.5-7.5 (2-6)
C-USA East:
1. Central Florida 7-5 (7-1)
2. East Carolina 8-4 (6-2)
3. Southern Miss 6-6 (4-4)
4. Marshall 3-9 (2-6)
5. UAB 3-9 (2-6)
6. Memphis 3-9 (1-7)
C-USA West:
1. Houston 9-3 (7-1)
2. Tulsa 9-3 (6-2)
3. UTEP 5-7 (4-4)
4. Tulane 5-7 (3-5)
5. Rice 4-8 (3-5)
6. SMU 6-6 (3-5)
MAC East:
1. Ohio 7-5 (6-2)
2. Kent State 7-5 (5-3)
3. Akron 5-7 (4-4)
4. Bowling Green 6-6 (4-4)
5. Buffalo 3-9 (2-6)
6. Miami of Ohio 3-9 (2-6)
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan 8-4 (6-2)
2. Toledo 7-5 (5-3)
3. Central Michigan 8-4 (5-3)
4. Northern Illinois 6-6 (4-4)
5. Eastern Michigan 3-9 (3-5)
6. Ball State 2-10 (2-6)
Mountain West:
1. Utah 8-4 (6-2)
2. TCU 9.5-2.5 (6-2)
3. BYU 10-2 (6-2)
4. Wyoming 9-3 (5-3)
5. Air Force 6-6 (4-4)
6. Colorado State 5-7 (3-5)
7. San Diego State 4-8 (2-6)
8. UNLV 3-9 (2-6)
9. New Mexico 4-8 (2-6)
Pac 10:
1. Oregon 10-2 (7-2)
2. USC 9.5-2.5 (7-2)
3. Cal 9-3 (7-2)
4. Washington State 8-4 (6-3)
5. Oregon State 7-6 (5-4)
6. UCLA 7-5 (5-4)
7. Arizona State 7-5 (4-5)
8. Arizona 3-9 (2-7)
9. Stanford 1-11 (1-8)
10. Washington 2-10 (1-8)
SEC East:
1. Georgia 8-4 (5-3)
2. South Carolina 8-4 (5-3)
3. Vanderbilt 7-5 (4-4)
4. Florida 8-4 (4-4)
5. Tennessee 7-5 (3-5)
6. Kentucky 3-9 (2-6)
SEC West:
1. LSU 11-1 (7-1)
2. Alabama 10-2 (6-2)
3. Arkansas 8-4 (5-3)
4. Auburn 7-5 (3-5)
5. Mississippi State 4-8 (2-6)
6. Mississippi 3-9 (2-6)
Sun Belt:
1. Troy 6-6 (5-2)
2. Florida Atlantic 5-7 (4-3)
3. Middle Tennessee State 6-6 (4-3)
4. Arkansas State 6-6 (4-3)
5. Louisiana-Monroe 7-5 (4-3)
6. Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 (3-4)
7. Florida International 3-9 (2-5)
8. North Texas 3-9 (2-5)
WAC:
1. Hawaii 11-2 (7-1)
2. Boise State 9-3 (6-2)
3. Nevada 9-3 (6-2)
4. New Mexico State 9-3 (5-3)
5. San Jose State 7-5 (4-4)
6. Idaho 5-7 (4-4)
7. Fresno State 5-7 (3-5)
8. Louisiana Tech 3-10 (1-7)
9. Utah State 0-12 (0-8)
Independents:
1. Notre Dame 8-4
2. Navy 8-4
3. Army 1-11
4. Temple 0-12
Of course, this has some flaws. After all, within a certain range, the game's essentially up for grabs -- why should a team get a "win" just because they had the opportunity to gain, say, 3 more yards? Accordingly, I've used 50 yards as a benchmark -- if the difference in yardage was 50 yards or less, I gave each team a "swing win (SW)" or a "swing loss (SL)," and awarded each team 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses. Let me use Toledo as example of how I adjusted the records:
Toledo (Pure): 7-5 (5 SW, 2 SL)
Subtracting all the swing games, Toledo's record is 2-3. With 7 swing games, that should add 3.5 in each column, bringing their "swing" record to 5.5-6.5.
Now, obviously the system still isn't perfect -- Michigan vs. Central Michigan is a perfect example. Michigan forced 3 turnovers, so while Michigan would likely outgain the Chippewas, CMU had much more of an opportunity to gain yardage. The end result: Central Michigan outgained Michigan 397-260, and was therefore the only team besides Ohio State to "beat" Michigan under this system. But still, this way of looking at it generally shows who is overrated and who could surprise everyone by regressing to the mean next year.
Without further ado, 2006's TOP FIVE OVERACHIEVERS:
t-5. ARIZONA (Actual Record: 6-6, Projected Record: 3-9, Overachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Stanford, Stephen F. Austin
Swing Wins: Oregon
Swing Losses: UCLA
Losses: Arizona State, BYU, Cal, LSU, Oregon State, USC, Washington, Washington State
The BYU "loss" could be kind of a wash, as Arizona was actually outgained by 5*1* yards. So the Wildcats winning that one, which they did, wasn't too far off. Them beating Wazzou in real life was just weird, however, as the Cougars outgained them by 60 yards and forced 2 more turnovers. Plus 78 of Arizona's 301 yards against Wazzou came on a TD pass in the first quarter. Arizona upsetting Cal was all due to Nate Longshore -- he threw 3 picks, and if one of those doesn't happen, Arizona would have probably lost as the stats show they should've.
t-5. BOISE STATE (Actual Record: 12-0, Projected Record: 9-3, Overachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, Oregon State, Sacramento State, San Jose State, Utah, Utah State
Swing Wins: Hawaii
Swing Losses: Wyoming
Losses: Idaho, New Mexico State
The Idaho game is like Arizona-BYU in that the disparity was 51 yards, just outside of the "swing" range. In contrast, Boise was in fact somewhat lucky in that Wyoming game, as a Broncos INT TD made the difference in the score. The NMSU pass attack somewhat breaks the system with their gobs of yardage -- Boise still gained 479 yards, though, so it's not like the Broncos' real-life win was all that inexplicable.
t-5. OHIO (Actual Record: 9-3, Projected Record: 6-6, Overachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio
Swing Wins: Akron, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Tennessee-Martin
Swing Losses: Bowling Green, Western Michigan
Losses: Illinois, Missouri, Rutgers
Ohio beating Illinois in real life is the big outlier, mostly due to 5 Illini turnovers. Other than that, this is a typical lucky team - a bunch of close games, and they won all but Bowling Green.
4. RICE (Actual Record: 7-5, Projected Record: 3.5-8.5, Overachievement: 3.5 wins)
Wins: Army, East Carolina, UTEP
Swing Wins: SMU
Losses: Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Texas, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCLA
The big lucky wins were UCF, Tulsa, and UAB. The UCF game was basically even, Central Florida just handed it over with two turnovers. The UAB game was the outright luckiest win, since it was also pretty even statistically, but Rice actually turned the ball over more than the Blazers. Tulsa blew Rice out of the water, but turned it over 4 times, and still lost by only 3.
3. AUBURN (Actual Record: 10-2, Projected Record: 6-6, Overachievement: 4 wins)
Wins: Arkansas State, Buffalo, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Washington State
Swing Wins: Florida, Tulane
Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina
Auburn only had two drives of any note against LSU, but one of them was for a touchdown, which was enough to win the game. LSU was more consistent over the game and outgained Auburn by over 100 yards, but Auburn got lucky and held on. The SC game was a bit closer, but without a red zone INT, the Gamecocks would've tied it, and then who knows. Beating Alabama was all due to Crimson Tide turnovers.
2. WAKE FOREST (Actual Record: 10-2, Projected Record: 5-7, Overachievement: 5 wins)
Wins: Florida State, Liberty, Maryland, Mississippi, Syracuse
Losses: Boston College, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
They beat Duke on a blocked field goal. I was at the UConn game, and the Huskies completely outplayed them outside of 2 DJ Hernandez interceptions (shock.), one of which was run back for a TD. They beat NC State on a SAFETY. The win over UNC was mostly turnovers, and BC had some at some inopportune times, too. Wake should've won maybe 1, 2, hell, maybe even 3 of those. But all five? Quite lucky.
1. MARYLAND (Actual Record: 8-4, Projected Record: 2.5-9.5, Overachivement: 5.5 wins)
Wins: William & Mary
Swing Losses: Boston College, Florida International, NC State
Losses: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Middle Tennessee State, Virginia, Wake Forest, West Virginia
The FIU and Virginia games were pretty close, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt there. MTSU, NC State, and Miami were all the same thing: Maryland got outplayed, not by much, but enough, and turnovers doomed the Blue Raiders/Wolfpack/'Canes. The Clemson game is a weird one: Maryland was the only team to turn the ball over, and got outgained by 80+ yards, but still managed to win it. FSU kicked the shit out of the Terps statistically in their game; however, Maryland apparently got some really great punt returns, and were able to score on 20-30 yard drives. Again, it's expected that Maryland could win some of those and go, say, 5-7, but for a team that only outgained one opponent all year to go 8-4? That's overachieving.
And on the other side of the coin, 2006's TOP FIVE UNDERPERFORMERS:
t-4. LOUISIANA-MONROE (Actual Record: 4-8, Projected Record: 7-5, Underachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Alcorn State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Kansas, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas
Swing Wins: Kentucky
Swing Losses: Troy
Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State
Might as well start with the Kansas loss, since that's the weird one. Warhawks QB Kinsmon Lancaster actually outgained the entire Kansas team, Kansas turned it over 4 times to ULM's one, and Kansas still managed to eke it out. The FAU and Kentucky games were essentially the same script: ULM performs a bit better in a shootout, turnovers doom them.
t-4. OREGON (Actual Record: 7-5, Projected Record: 10-2, Underachievement: 3 wins)
Wins: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Portland State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
Swing Wins: Fresno State
Swing Losses: Arizona
Losses: Cal
The USC game was another one of those 51-yard specials, so we'll just call it even. Even though Arizona outgained Oregon, the Ducks loss was mostly due to them turning it over 6 times. Oregon had some inopportune turnovers against Wazzou, although that plagued both teams. I'd argue Oregon was more consistent, but the Cougars were able to turn their big drives into more points. Oregon State game was also about even; the Beavers fumbled it over, but making one of Oregon's two missed field goals would've won it for the Ducks.
3. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Actual Record: 0-12, Projected Record: 4-8, Underachievement: 4 wins)
Wins: Middle Tennessee State, North Texas
Swing Wins: Maryland
Swing Losses: Alabama, Bowling Green, South Florida
Losses: Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Miami, Troy
The South Florida, Maryland, and Troy games (only a 53 yard disparity) were pretty much close. As was the UNT game, I suppose, but that all came down to whoever could make a FG before the 7th overtime. The Alabama game was pretty handily won by the Crimson Tide; they ran back TDs on special teams and on defense, still outgained FIU by 50, and pretty much just shut the Golden Panthers down -- this was a case of Bama's low yardage being due to a lack of chances rather than a lack of success. MTSU seemed pretty lucky to beat FIU, being outgained by 70 yards and turning the ball over, but neither team really did much and the Blue Raiders eked out the win 7-6. FIU probably should've won the BGSU game, however -- FIU won the yardage battle close, but turned it over 4 times to Bowling Green's 2. FIU had a bunch of close games that could've gone either way, but few losses that you could say they deserved to win. It still would've been a bad year, they just probably didn't deserve to go winless.
2. NEW MEXICO STATE (Actual Record: 4-8, Projected Record: 8.5-3.5, Underachievement: 4.5 wins)
Wins: Boise State, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico, San Jose State, Southeastern Louisiana, Texas Southern, Utah State
Swing Wins: UTEP
Losses: Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada
NMSU only lost to New Mexico by 6, but only after turning it over five times. I'd say that's a fluke loss. Same story pretty much with the Fresno game, with the Aggies losing by 5 after 4 turnovers. NMSU and UTEP were pretty much exactly even, while the SJSU and Boise games both reached shootout levels; outgaining a team by 80 yards is a lot less impressive when it's, say, 556-479.
1. ILLINOIS (Actual Record: 2-10, Projected Record: 7-5, Underachievement: 5 wins)
Wins: Eastern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio, Penn State
Swing Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Syracuse
Swing Losses: Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Losses: Northwestern, Rutgers
The Indiana loss was about as even as two teams can be. The Wisconsin and Ohio State losses weren't far behind, with turnovers being even, the Illini being barely outgained (32 by Wisconsin, 21 by Ohio State), and the opponent winning by a touchdown or less. Those three were about even, but the Syracuse loss was slightly more undeserving. The Illini outgained the Orange by 48, but Illinois had one more turnover than Syracuse, who returned the lone Illini fumble for a TD. The rest of the games can all be chalked up to an insane amount of turnovers:
vs. Iowa: Iowa outgains Illinois 337-291, Illinois: 4 turnovers, Iowa: 1 turnover
vs. Ohio: Illinois outgains Ohio 441-264, Illinois: 5 turnovers, Ohio: 1 turnover
vs. Penn State: Illinois outgains Penn State 403-211, Illinois: 4 turnovers, Penn State: 2 turnovers
vs. Purdue: Illinois outgains Purdue 446-445, Illinois: 5 turnovers, Purdue: 2 turnovers
Illinois doesn't turn the ball over and wins those 4 games, and they're 6-6. Combined with those 4 even games above, that should add up to a record anywhere from, say, 7-5 to 9-3. So, I think that probably clinches it -- the biggest underperformer this year, and the team that's probably going to "come out of nowhere" and regress to the mean next season -- the Illinois Fighting Illini.
And for the record, the "swing" conference standings:
ACC Atlantic:
1. Clemson 10-2 (7-1)
2. Florida State 7.5-4.5 (5-3)
3. Boston College 6.5-5.5 (4-4)
4. NC State 5-7 (4-4)
5. Wake Forest 5-7 (2-6)
6. Maryland 2.5-9.5 (1-7)
ACC Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-2)
2. Miami 8.5-3.5 (5-3)
3. Georgia Tech 6.5-5.5 (4.5-3.5)
4. Virginia 5.5-6.5 (4.5-3.5)
5. North Carolina 4-8 (3.5-4.5)
6. Duke 2-10 (1.5-6.5)
Big East:
1. Louisville 10-2 (5.5-1.5)
2. West Virginia 10-2 (5-2)
3. Cincinnati 7.5-4.5 (4.5-2.5)
4. South Florida 8-4 (4.5-2.5)
5. Rutgers 8-4 (3.5-3.5)
6. Connecticut 6.5-5.5 (2.5-5.5)
7. Pittsburgh 6-6 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 2-10 (0.5-6.5)
Big Ten:
1. Ohio State 10-2 (7-1)
2. Michigan 9.5-2.5 (6.5-1.5)
3. Wisconsin 10-2 (6.5-1.5)
4. Illinois 7-5 (4.5-3.5)
5. Penn State 7-5 (3.5-4.5)
6. Indiana 5-7 (3.5-4.5)
7. Iowa 6-6 (3-5)
8. Purdue 5.5-7.5 (3-5)
9. Northwestern 5.5-6.5 (2.5-5.5)
10. Michigan State 5.5-6.5 (2-6)
11. Minnesota 4-8 (2-6)
Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska 7.5-4.5 (4.5-3.5)
2. Missouri 8.5-3.5 (4.5-3.5)
3. Colorado 4.5-7.5 (4-4)
4. Kansas State 5-7 (3-5)
5. Kansas 6-6 (3-5)
6. Iowa State 4-8 (1-7)
Big 12 South:
1. Oklahoma 9.5-2.5 (6.5-1.5)
2. Texas A&M 9.5-2.5 (6-2)
3. Texas Tech 8-4 (5-3)
4. Texas 8-4 (4.5-3.5)
5. Oklahoma State 7.5-4.5 (4-4)
6. Baylor 3.5-8.5 (2-6)
C-USA East:
1. Central Florida 6.5-5.5 (6-2)
2. East Carolina 7-5 (4.5-3.5)
3. Southern Miss 6.5-5.5 (4.5-3.5)
4. Marshall 4-8 (3-5)
5. Memphis 4-8 (2.5-5.5)
6. UAB 3-9 (2-6)
C-USA West:
1. Houston 9.5-2.5 (7.5-0.5)
2. Tulsa 9-3 (6-2)
3. UTEP 5-7 (3.5-4.5)
4. Tulane 5.5-6.5 (3-5)
5. SMU 5.5-6.5 (3-5)
6. Rice 3.5-8.5 (2.5-5.5)
MAC East:
1. Ohio 6-6 (5.5-2.5)
2. Kent State 7.5-4.5 (5.5-2.5)
3. Akron 6-6 (4.5-3.5)
4. Bowling Green 6.5-5.5 (4-4)
5. Miami of Ohio 4.5-7.5 (3-5)
6. Buffalo 3-9 (2-6)
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan 7.5-4.5 (5.5-2.5)
2. Northern Illinois 7-5 (5-3)
3. Toledo 5.5-6.5 (4-4)
4. Central Michigan 7.5-4.5 (4-4)
5. Ball State 3.5-8.5 (3-5)
6. Eastern Michigan 2-10 (2-6)
Mountain West:
1. BYU 11-1 (7-1)
2. TCU 9-3 (6-2)
3. Wyoming 8.5-3.5 (5-3)
4. Utah 6.5-5.5 (4.5-3.5)
5. Air Force 6-6 (3.5-4.5)
6. Colorado State 5.5-6.5 (3-5)
7. New Mexico 4.5-7.5 (3-5)
8. UNLV 4-8 (2.5-5.5)
9. San Diego State 3-9 (1.5-6.5)
Pac 10:
1. Oregon 10-2 (7.5-1.5)
2. USC 9.5-2.5 (7-2)
3. Cal 7.5-4.5 (5.5-3.5)
4. Washington State 7.5-4.5 (5.5-3.5)
5. Arizona State 8-4 (5-4)
6. Oregon State 6.5-6.5 (4.5-4.5)
7. UCLA 6-6 (4-5)
8. Washington 4.5-7.5 (3-6)
9. Arizona 3-9 (2-7)
10. Stanford 1.5-10.5 (1-8)
SEC East:
1. Florida 9.5-2.5 (5.5-2.5)
2. Georgia 8-4 (4.5-3.5)
3. South Carolina 8-4 (4.5-3.5)
4. Kentucky 5-7 (3.5-4.5)
5. Tennessee 6.5-5.5 (3-5)
6. Vanderbilt 6-6 (3-5)
SEC West:
1. LSU 10.5-1.5 (6.5-1.5)
2. Arkansas 8.5-3.5 (5.5-2.5)
3. Alabama 8-4 (5-3)
4. Mississippi State 5.5-6.5 (3.5-4.5)
5. Auburn 6-6 (2.5-5.5)
6. Mississippi 2.5-9.5 (1-7)
Sun Belt:
1. Arkansas State 7-5 (5-2)
2. Troy 5.5-6.5 (4.5-2.5)
3. Louisiana-Monroe 7-5 (4.5-2.5)
4. Middle Tennessee State 5.5-6.5 (3.5-3.5)
5. Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 (3.5-3.5)
6. Florida Atlantic 4-8 (3-4)
7. Florida International 4-8 (2-5)
8. North Texas 3.5-8.5 (2-5)
WAC:
1. Hawaii 12-1 (7.5-0.5)
2. Boise State 9-3 (5.5-2.5)
3. Nevada 8-4 (5.5-2.5)
4. New Mexico State 8.5-3.5 (5-3)
5. Fresno State 5.5-6.5 (4-4)
6. San Jose State 6-6 (3.5-4.5)
7. Idaho 4-8 (3.5-4.5)
8. Louisiana Tech 2.5-10.5 (1-7)
9. Utah State 0.5-11.5 (0.5-7.5)
Independents:
1. Notre Dame 8.5-3.5
2. Navy 7-5
3. Army 3-9
4. Temple 0-12
Showing posts with label Temple. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Temple. Show all posts
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Week 12 Rundown: Saturday
12:00 PM
Western Carolina @ #3 Florida (9-1)
Gee, I wonder.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Buffalo (2-8) @ #15 Wisconsin (10-1)
GEE. I WONDER.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
Maryland (8-2) @ #23 Boston College (8-2)
BC's somewhat overrated, but I still imagine Maryland's luck has to run out sometime. I'll be wary, but I absolutely cannot pick the Terps unless they're playing, say, Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
Connecticut (4-5) @ Syracuse (3-7)
This worries me. Unless they upset Louisville, UConn needs to win this and against Cincy at home next week to be bowl-eligible. Fun fact: UConn has never lost a home game in November since going I-A, so the Cincinnati game doesn't worry me. If the UConn I saw against Pitt shows up here, it's no contest. But can they do it on the road? If the typical UConn team of this year shows up, it's about a pick 'em. I probably would pick them anyway, but the Huskies' performance last week only cements it.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Indiana (5-6) @ Purdue (7-4)
Who knows with Indiana. Purdue is one of the many all-offense, no-defense teams that seem in vogue. Or is that en vogue? Whatever. I'll bet against the "good Indiana" showing up away from home, but if the Hoosiers do, they could easily blow Purdue out.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
Iowa (6-5) @ Minnesota (5-6)
I think I've officially given up on that Iowa breakthrough game where they look like the superbadass team that I've always felt they could show up as at any moment. I'm still picking them to win, since Minnesota is terribly mediocre (if even that), but it probably won't be as lopsided as it should.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-5) @ Virginia (4-6)
Virginia has 4 wins? How the hell did that happen? Let me guess...I remember the Wyoming game, Duke and UNC probably, and I'll say a I-AA. Now to look it up...oh, NC State. Well, good for them. Miami actually hasn't been all that awful lately, with their losses mostly coming due to bad luck rather than a lack of effort. If they lose here, then they're just cursed. Or Wright or James got injured.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (4-7) @ Penn State (7-4)
Don't worry Spartans, it'll be over soon.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-7) @ North Carolina (1-9)
You know what? I'm picking the upset. NCSU's dead in the water, as the aforementioned loss to Virginia shows, and...okay, I can say this. Deep breaths, deep breaths. Okay. Here I go. AND....Joe Dailey has been pretty decent lately (ignore the GT game). Okay, I'm going to stop before I blow my own mind anymore.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:10 PM
#11 Oklahoma (8-2) @ Baylor (4-7)
Baylor wouldn't have a chance with Shawn Bell. Without, sigh. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4
12:30 PM
#16 Tennessee (7-3) @ Vanderbilt (4-7)
If Vanderbilt could beat Tennessee last year in Knoxville, I definitely think this year's Commodores have a puncher's chance. Tennessee's weakness is the run defense, and Vandy is actually a decent running team, but, well, there's a difference between Vandy and Arkansas.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (7-3) @ South Carolina (5-5)
MTSU's the class of the Sun Belt, not that that 6-0 conference record doesn't make that immediately apparent. Louisiana-Lafayette had that fluke win over Houston, so it's not like a SBC team can't pull off an upset, but I really doubt it'll be here. SC's a pretty good team, they've just had some bad luck here and there. And this is a game where they can afford it.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Temple (1-10) @ Navy (7-3)
Ah, hell, let's just name Temple the new Temple.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Illinois (2-9) @ Northwestern (3-8)
Intriguing. Illinois hung close with Ohio State, but NW actually put up a lot more yards in getting blown out. I'll go with the Wildcats since they have the propensity to put up more yards, and I'm not sure the Illini can keep up.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Monroe (2-7) @ Kentucky (6-4)
Seven wins? Really?
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
1:30 PM
Duke (0-10) @ #19 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Duke, sadly, is no UNC. As much as I hate the basketball team, I kind of have some pity for football. And it will continue here.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Central Florida (3-7) @ Tulane (3-7)
Southern Miss held Tulane to 85 total yards last week. At Tulane. The USM defense is good, but not THAT good. UCF is no peach, but I have more confidence in them than the Green Wave.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Western Michigan (7-3) @ Florida State (5-5)
Now that Jeff Bowden's gone, watch FSU put up forty-plus. And I'm not sure if I'm kidding. They really should win this game. If they don't, then...well, I wouldn't be surprised. God, I wouldn't be surprised.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Houston (8-3) @ Memphis (1-9)
Well, Houston DID lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That's about the only hope for the Tigers here. If they're even as good as Louisiana-Lafayette.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Missouri (7-3) @ Iowa State (3-8)
I can't imagine ISU is this bad, so I can see some regression (well, progression) to the mean and the resulting upset. Probably not gonna happen, though.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
Oklahoma State (6-4) @ Texas Tech (6-5)
Oh God, this is gonna be a shootout. Honestly, this is about even, and I can't really give much analysis past "HOLY FUCK! PASSING YARDS!" Push goes to the home team.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#8 Arkansas (9-1) @ Mississippi State (3-7)
Arkansas is definitely capable of being upset. Doubt this is the team to do it, although to the Bulldogs' credit, they have improved from the "FUCKING HORRIBLE" they were earlier in the year.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Army (3-7) @ #13 Notre Dame (9-1)
Man, how does Notre Dame do it against this SUPER-HARD INDEPENDENT SCHEDULE? The Irish are going to win, but I think it's a damning statement that I would barely bat an eye if whoever the Army QB is (is it still David Pevoto?) threw for over 300.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Utah State (1-9) @ #13 Boise State (10-0)
Ian Johnson will probably be out with a collapsed lung. Hell, take out the lung and put it at running back, the Broncos would probably win.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (6-4) @ Rice (5-5)
Rice's win over Tulsa was luck, but the Owls are actually a decent team, and definitely one capable of beating ECU. Still, the Pirates offense is humming, and I have more confidence in them just because, you know, Rice? Really? The Owls winning wouldn't shock me at all, though, especially in the parity-tacular C-USA.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (7-3) @ SMU (5-5)
Tulsa's the much better team, and the Golden Hurricane will probably be focused after that Rice loss. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (11-0) @ #2 Ohio State (11-0)
This one's getting its own post.
#10 Auburn (9-2) @ Alabama (6-5)
Auburn is again an inconsistent team in my eyes. Hm...Auburn playing a highly-motivated team with a strong defense, but a suspect offense that has looked good at times earlier in the year? HMMM. Now where did I see that before...
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-5) @ Oregon (7-3)
Arizona's Cal win was purely because of mistakes by the Golden Bears, and their game against Wazzou was about even. Does Arizona have a chance? Yes. But is Oregon the better team? Yes.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (7-4) @ Kansas (5-5)
I'm shocked that Kansas is .500, I could've sworn they were worse. Still, bleah. KSU, oddly enough to me after that Illinois State near-loss to start the year, seems like an above-average team. KU definitely has a chance at home, but I don't really have that much confidence in the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (6-4) @ Stanford (1-9)
Five words: Stanford is still really bad.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
New Mexico (5-5) @ #24 BYU (8-2)
UNM, like KSU, has gone from embarrassing themselves against a I-AA to being a pretty decent little team. The Lobos will probably get killed here, though.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4
San Diego State (2-7) @ TCU (7-2)
Last week's win over UNLV showed that SDSU still has a pulse. TCU could put an end to that here, though.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Wyoming (5-6) @ UNLV (1-9)
I have a feeling in my bones that says "upset", but I think Wyoming will be motivated, staring bowl eligibility in the face against an underperforming team.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UTEP (5-5) @ Marshall (4-6)
Marshall, bleh. They've gone from "pretty bad" to "kind of okay, I guess" over the year. UTEP's quite underperformed this year; that could change here. Unless Marshall gets really motivated because of their movie. Whenever that's out. Is it out soon? Who knows. Or really cares all that much. Except Marshall fans.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Idaho (4-6) @ Fresno State (2-7)
They've gotta. Right?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) @ Florida International (0-9)
Their coach just quit, so FIU is dead in the water. Not really much to say here. Smell the exciting Sun Belt action.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3
6:45 PM
Washington (4-7) @ Washington State (6-5)
UW will be motivated and all, but that loss to Stanford pretty much shows what happens when a one-man team loses that one man.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
#21 Virginia Tech (8-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (9-1)
Virginia Tech is a talented team and can obviously win, but Wake Forest is the best team in the ACC. Oh crap, why's I say that. Dammit, now my brain is bleeding.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Arkansas State (5-5) @ Troy (5-4)
Troy's undefeated in the Sun Belt, but they haven't faced MTSU (the other SBC undefeated), or Arkansas State, who I feel is their next-best Sun Belt competitor. ASU has a pretty good running attack, and I have a pretty good hunch.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-7) @ North Texas (3-7)
I'll go with the team not playing for a lame duck coach.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
South Florida (7-3) @ #12 Louisville (8-1)
Kind of weird that this is between the #3 and #4 teams in the Big East. USF would have a chance at home, as last year showed, but between Louisville wanting revenge for that game, revenge for the Rutgers game, and just being a better team, watch out now.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
Utah (6-4) @ Air Force (4-5)
Two obnoxiously inconsistent teams. I'd give Utah the talent advantage, plus the Utes are on a bit of a roll.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#9 Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincinnati (5-5)
This could be a trap game, as Cincinnati is a thoroughly decent team. Perhaps Cincinnati can pull off the upset by lulling Rutgers to sleep since the Bearcats are so boring and there is nothing to say about them.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#17 Cal (8-2) @ #4 USC (8-1)
USC's the better team. Cal's loss to Arizona may have helped the Golden Bears here, though; they'll be focused, and they actually played much better than the Wildcats, with Nate Longshore's 3 picks being what cost them the game. Still, at USC? Meh.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (3-7) @ #7 LSU (8-2)
This could be quite the fun whooping.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Nevada (7-3) @ Louisiana Tech (3-7)
Kind of a boring game to talk about. Nevada's a very good WAC team. Louisiana Tech, very much not so.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
UAB (3-7) @ Southern Miss (6-4)
The average USM team this year would beat UAB, especially at home. The fact that they just finished shutting Tulane the heck down makes this pick that much easier.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
10:15 PM
UCLA (5-5) @ Arizona State (6-4)
What a kind of uninteresting game between two teams with kind of an offense. These two just vanish and show up intermittently, so I'll just call it a crapshoot and...hey, why not, flip a coin. Make it interactive. For me. Who is typing this. Heads UCLA, tails Arizona State. Because Sun Devils have tails. Heads.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
11:05 PM
San Jose State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-2)
Time to test out a new catchphrase. THE COLT BRENNAN MOTHERFUCKING LIGHTSHOW! WITH LASERS! AND LIGHTS! AND TOUCHDOWN PASSES!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Western Carolina @ #3 Florida (9-1)
Gee, I wonder.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Buffalo (2-8) @ #15 Wisconsin (10-1)
GEE. I WONDER.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
Maryland (8-2) @ #23 Boston College (8-2)
BC's somewhat overrated, but I still imagine Maryland's luck has to run out sometime. I'll be wary, but I absolutely cannot pick the Terps unless they're playing, say, Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
Connecticut (4-5) @ Syracuse (3-7)
This worries me. Unless they upset Louisville, UConn needs to win this and against Cincy at home next week to be bowl-eligible. Fun fact: UConn has never lost a home game in November since going I-A, so the Cincinnati game doesn't worry me. If the UConn I saw against Pitt shows up here, it's no contest. But can they do it on the road? If the typical UConn team of this year shows up, it's about a pick 'em. I probably would pick them anyway, but the Huskies' performance last week only cements it.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Indiana (5-6) @ Purdue (7-4)
Who knows with Indiana. Purdue is one of the many all-offense, no-defense teams that seem in vogue. Or is that en vogue? Whatever. I'll bet against the "good Indiana" showing up away from home, but if the Hoosiers do, they could easily blow Purdue out.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
Iowa (6-5) @ Minnesota (5-6)
I think I've officially given up on that Iowa breakthrough game where they look like the superbadass team that I've always felt they could show up as at any moment. I'm still picking them to win, since Minnesota is terribly mediocre (if even that), but it probably won't be as lopsided as it should.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-5) @ Virginia (4-6)
Virginia has 4 wins? How the hell did that happen? Let me guess...I remember the Wyoming game, Duke and UNC probably, and I'll say a I-AA. Now to look it up...oh, NC State. Well, good for them. Miami actually hasn't been all that awful lately, with their losses mostly coming due to bad luck rather than a lack of effort. If they lose here, then they're just cursed. Or Wright or James got injured.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (4-7) @ Penn State (7-4)
Don't worry Spartans, it'll be over soon.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-7) @ North Carolina (1-9)
You know what? I'm picking the upset. NCSU's dead in the water, as the aforementioned loss to Virginia shows, and...okay, I can say this. Deep breaths, deep breaths. Okay. Here I go. AND....Joe Dailey has been pretty decent lately (ignore the GT game). Okay, I'm going to stop before I blow my own mind anymore.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:10 PM
#11 Oklahoma (8-2) @ Baylor (4-7)
Baylor wouldn't have a chance with Shawn Bell. Without, sigh. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4
12:30 PM
#16 Tennessee (7-3) @ Vanderbilt (4-7)
If Vanderbilt could beat Tennessee last year in Knoxville, I definitely think this year's Commodores have a puncher's chance. Tennessee's weakness is the run defense, and Vandy is actually a decent running team, but, well, there's a difference between Vandy and Arkansas.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (7-3) @ South Carolina (5-5)
MTSU's the class of the Sun Belt, not that that 6-0 conference record doesn't make that immediately apparent. Louisiana-Lafayette had that fluke win over Houston, so it's not like a SBC team can't pull off an upset, but I really doubt it'll be here. SC's a pretty good team, they've just had some bad luck here and there. And this is a game where they can afford it.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Temple (1-10) @ Navy (7-3)
Ah, hell, let's just name Temple the new Temple.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Illinois (2-9) @ Northwestern (3-8)
Intriguing. Illinois hung close with Ohio State, but NW actually put up a lot more yards in getting blown out. I'll go with the Wildcats since they have the propensity to put up more yards, and I'm not sure the Illini can keep up.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Monroe (2-7) @ Kentucky (6-4)
Seven wins? Really?
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
1:30 PM
Duke (0-10) @ #19 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Duke, sadly, is no UNC. As much as I hate the basketball team, I kind of have some pity for football. And it will continue here.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Central Florida (3-7) @ Tulane (3-7)
Southern Miss held Tulane to 85 total yards last week. At Tulane. The USM defense is good, but not THAT good. UCF is no peach, but I have more confidence in them than the Green Wave.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Western Michigan (7-3) @ Florida State (5-5)
Now that Jeff Bowden's gone, watch FSU put up forty-plus. And I'm not sure if I'm kidding. They really should win this game. If they don't, then...well, I wouldn't be surprised. God, I wouldn't be surprised.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Houston (8-3) @ Memphis (1-9)
Well, Houston DID lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That's about the only hope for the Tigers here. If they're even as good as Louisiana-Lafayette.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Missouri (7-3) @ Iowa State (3-8)
I can't imagine ISU is this bad, so I can see some regression (well, progression) to the mean and the resulting upset. Probably not gonna happen, though.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
Oklahoma State (6-4) @ Texas Tech (6-5)
Oh God, this is gonna be a shootout. Honestly, this is about even, and I can't really give much analysis past "HOLY FUCK! PASSING YARDS!" Push goes to the home team.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#8 Arkansas (9-1) @ Mississippi State (3-7)
Arkansas is definitely capable of being upset. Doubt this is the team to do it, although to the Bulldogs' credit, they have improved from the "FUCKING HORRIBLE" they were earlier in the year.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Army (3-7) @ #13 Notre Dame (9-1)
Man, how does Notre Dame do it against this SUPER-HARD INDEPENDENT SCHEDULE? The Irish are going to win, but I think it's a damning statement that I would barely bat an eye if whoever the Army QB is (is it still David Pevoto?) threw for over 300.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Utah State (1-9) @ #13 Boise State (10-0)
Ian Johnson will probably be out with a collapsed lung. Hell, take out the lung and put it at running back, the Broncos would probably win.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (6-4) @ Rice (5-5)
Rice's win over Tulsa was luck, but the Owls are actually a decent team, and definitely one capable of beating ECU. Still, the Pirates offense is humming, and I have more confidence in them just because, you know, Rice? Really? The Owls winning wouldn't shock me at all, though, especially in the parity-tacular C-USA.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (7-3) @ SMU (5-5)
Tulsa's the much better team, and the Golden Hurricane will probably be focused after that Rice loss. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (11-0) @ #2 Ohio State (11-0)
This one's getting its own post.
#10 Auburn (9-2) @ Alabama (6-5)
Auburn is again an inconsistent team in my eyes. Hm...Auburn playing a highly-motivated team with a strong defense, but a suspect offense that has looked good at times earlier in the year? HMMM. Now where did I see that before...
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-5) @ Oregon (7-3)
Arizona's Cal win was purely because of mistakes by the Golden Bears, and their game against Wazzou was about even. Does Arizona have a chance? Yes. But is Oregon the better team? Yes.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (7-4) @ Kansas (5-5)
I'm shocked that Kansas is .500, I could've sworn they were worse. Still, bleah. KSU, oddly enough to me after that Illinois State near-loss to start the year, seems like an above-average team. KU definitely has a chance at home, but I don't really have that much confidence in the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (6-4) @ Stanford (1-9)
Five words: Stanford is still really bad.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
New Mexico (5-5) @ #24 BYU (8-2)
UNM, like KSU, has gone from embarrassing themselves against a I-AA to being a pretty decent little team. The Lobos will probably get killed here, though.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4
San Diego State (2-7) @ TCU (7-2)
Last week's win over UNLV showed that SDSU still has a pulse. TCU could put an end to that here, though.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Wyoming (5-6) @ UNLV (1-9)
I have a feeling in my bones that says "upset", but I think Wyoming will be motivated, staring bowl eligibility in the face against an underperforming team.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UTEP (5-5) @ Marshall (4-6)
Marshall, bleh. They've gone from "pretty bad" to "kind of okay, I guess" over the year. UTEP's quite underperformed this year; that could change here. Unless Marshall gets really motivated because of their movie. Whenever that's out. Is it out soon? Who knows. Or really cares all that much. Except Marshall fans.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Idaho (4-6) @ Fresno State (2-7)
They've gotta. Right?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) @ Florida International (0-9)
Their coach just quit, so FIU is dead in the water. Not really much to say here. Smell the exciting Sun Belt action.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3
6:45 PM
Washington (4-7) @ Washington State (6-5)
UW will be motivated and all, but that loss to Stanford pretty much shows what happens when a one-man team loses that one man.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
#21 Virginia Tech (8-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (9-1)
Virginia Tech is a talented team and can obviously win, but Wake Forest is the best team in the ACC. Oh crap, why's I say that. Dammit, now my brain is bleeding.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Arkansas State (5-5) @ Troy (5-4)
Troy's undefeated in the Sun Belt, but they haven't faced MTSU (the other SBC undefeated), or Arkansas State, who I feel is their next-best Sun Belt competitor. ASU has a pretty good running attack, and I have a pretty good hunch.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-7) @ North Texas (3-7)
I'll go with the team not playing for a lame duck coach.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
South Florida (7-3) @ #12 Louisville (8-1)
Kind of weird that this is between the #3 and #4 teams in the Big East. USF would have a chance at home, as last year showed, but between Louisville wanting revenge for that game, revenge for the Rutgers game, and just being a better team, watch out now.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
Utah (6-4) @ Air Force (4-5)
Two obnoxiously inconsistent teams. I'd give Utah the talent advantage, plus the Utes are on a bit of a roll.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#9 Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincinnati (5-5)
This could be a trap game, as Cincinnati is a thoroughly decent team. Perhaps Cincinnati can pull off the upset by lulling Rutgers to sleep since the Bearcats are so boring and there is nothing to say about them.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#17 Cal (8-2) @ #4 USC (8-1)
USC's the better team. Cal's loss to Arizona may have helped the Golden Bears here, though; they'll be focused, and they actually played much better than the Wildcats, with Nate Longshore's 3 picks being what cost them the game. Still, at USC? Meh.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (3-7) @ #7 LSU (8-2)
This could be quite the fun whooping.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Nevada (7-3) @ Louisiana Tech (3-7)
Kind of a boring game to talk about. Nevada's a very good WAC team. Louisiana Tech, very much not so.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
UAB (3-7) @ Southern Miss (6-4)
The average USM team this year would beat UAB, especially at home. The fact that they just finished shutting Tulane the heck down makes this pick that much easier.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
10:15 PM
UCLA (5-5) @ Arizona State (6-4)
What a kind of uninteresting game between two teams with kind of an offense. These two just vanish and show up intermittently, so I'll just call it a crapshoot and...hey, why not, flip a coin. Make it interactive. For me. Who is typing this. Heads UCLA, tails Arizona State. Because Sun Devils have tails. Heads.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
11:05 PM
San Jose State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-2)
Time to test out a new catchphrase. THE COLT BRENNAN MOTHERFUCKING LIGHTSHOW! WITH LASERS! AND LIGHTS! AND TOUCHDOWN PASSES!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Friday, November 10, 2006
Week 11 Rundown: Saturday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Cincinnati (5-4) @ #8 West Virginia (7-1)
...Rutgers? Anyway, I don't even know anymore. But seriously. Cincinnati is a wholly decent team, and going there may be a trap game for the aforementioned Scarlet Knights. That game will likely be more interesting than this, with a Mountaineers team looking to prove themselves at home against a team that will probably allow them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#16 Wisconsin (9-1) @ Iowa (6-4)
Wisconsin looks like a good team, but that weak schedule works against that. Iowa's not as bad as they've been lately, and I'm looking for some regression to the mean, so the upset would not shock me at all. I dig Wisconsin's mini-Michigan thing they've got going on, but I'm gonna pick the rebound.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
#18 Georgia Tech (7-2) @ North Carolina (1-8)
Joe Dailey is...oddly resurgent, even if that requires once being good. And GT keeps winning only 7 games under Chan Gailey. So...maybe. But probably not. UNC's pretty awful, and, well, Calvin Johnson.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-6) @ #25 Clemson (7-3)
NC State looks hapless like, I don't know, a duck without a head. I probably mixed metaphors there or something. Still better than UNC and Duke, though, sadly. Anyway, Clemson. They're worrying me because they're pulling a reverse of what they usually do, tailing off rather than picking up as the season goes on. If they don't win this, I've lost all hope.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Purdue (6-4) @ Illinois (2-8)
Illinois hung in there last week against a high-octane Ohio State offense. Purdue's offense contains significantly less octane, and their defense is horrible, so hey, why not?
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (4-6) @ Michigan State (4-6)
Both these teams are hopeless. For probably one last time, I guess I'll take good talent and horrible coaching over mediocre talent and mediocre coaching.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Syracuse (3-6) @ South Florida (6-3)
USF seems like a different team at home, with their only loss there to Rutgers by 2. Undefeated Rutgers. God. Anyway. Cuse could pull off the upset, but probably not in Tampa.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Georgia (6-4) @ #4 Auburn (9-1)
That Bulldogs offense. Ohhhh that Bulldogs offense. Or lack thereof. Sigh. Auburn can be inconsistent, but with Georgia's defense looking not so great and that offense being, well, offensive, the Tigers should walk.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Baylor (4-6) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
OK State's momentum hit a brick wall against Texas, but well, that'll happen. The new Baylor QB, whose name escapes me but it's long and eastern European, seems to be more mobile than Shawn Bell, but, well, not as good. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Marshall (4-5) @ East Carolina (5-4)
Two teams on 3-game winning streaks, but ECU's been much more impressive with theirs including a win over Southern Miss. Plus the Pirates are at home. Though with C-USA, who knows.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Navy (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-8)
Navy's running game hasn't missed a beat with their new QB, although they'll miss Brian Hampton's passing. But that doesn't matter much for Navy, and probably won't matter against a subpar MAC team.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
Vanderbilt (4-6) @ Kentucky (5-4)
Vanderbilt's competitive. Kentucky's improved from last year, but they're still not that great. Still, with the Georgia wins cancelling out, Kentucky has the best win among the two (Central Michigan, really) and the home-field advantage. Upset, if you consider Vandy winning an upset, could easily happen.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Colorado State (4-5) @ Utah (5-4)
Utah's inconsistent, but CSU looks dead and buried.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
Southern Miss (5-4) @ Tulane (3-6)
Tulane got killed by Marshall, so a once-mediocre team now looks just bad. USM still has that defense. The offense not so much, but that defense. Tulane has an offense where they could put together enough points to put up the upset, but I'm not picking it.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Iowa State (3-7) @ Colorado (1-9)
Colorado's improved, and ISU...sigh. I'd give them a chance if they were playing to save their coach, but he's already given up. Rightfully.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Houston (7-3) @ SMU (5-4)
Houston's inconsistent, but I don't think enough to lose here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Rice (4-5) @ Tulsa (7-2)
Rice actually looks pretty decent. Tulsa's looking to redeem themselves after that Houston loss, though. Uh oh.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (10-0) @ Indiana (5-5)
Indiana's fortunes hinge on QB Kellen Lewis, who might be the most inconsistent player in the nation. Michigan has to be beaten by the opposing QB, and I don't think the good Lewis is showing up with that Michigan defense in his face.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#2 Ohio State (10-0) @ Northwestern (3-7)
I think Northwestern might actually be no Illinois.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
South Carolina (5-4) @ #6 Florida (8-1)
Florida's vulnerable, but against, Vandy's better than you'd think. SC's QB situation is in flux, so the chance for the upset is moderately slim, but bet against Spurrier in Gainesville at your own risk.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
#8 Cal (8-1) @ Arizona (4-5)
Cal's definitely vulnerable, but Arizona didn't look all that impressive despite beating Wazzou. And even though Cal looked bad for allowing UCLA to give up all those yards, who knows if Arizona's as good as them.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3
#22 Nebraska (7-3) @ #19 Texas A&M (8-2)
TAMU's tied into QB Stephen McGee, who looked horrible against Oklahoma. However, that OU defense has finally gotten its act together, so that can be counted as a mulligan. Nebraska looked good and beat Missouri last week, though, so this one's about even. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-4) @ #20 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Yeah no. Kent State looked like a good MAC team, then they lost by 31 to Buffalo, so there.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Connecticut (3-5)
Sigh. Pitt got shut down by the USF defense, and UConn's been good on that side of the ball lately, so they may be able to hold off a Pitt rebound for another week. Of course, it's pretty improbable the UConn offense will be able to score enough points to capitalize. Sigh.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-4) @ Maryland (7-2)
Maryland's the most overrated team in the country. Miami's not awful or anything, and heck, they actually are probably better than the Terps.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Temple (1-9) @ Penn State (6-4)
Yep.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
Stanford (0-9) @ Washington (4-6)
Washington may not have their one-man team, but I think Stanford is the new Temple. Yep.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
#12 Notre Dame (8-1) @ Air Force (4-4)
Man, how does Notre Dame keep winning against this fearsome schedule.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
Troy (4-4) @ Florida Atlantic (3-6)
Geez, the Sun Belt. FAU's surprisingly competitive, but I'll go with the better team.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Utah State (1-8) @ Nevada (6-3)
Utah State's hopeless. Sigh. Nevada's one of the top teams in the WAC, probably behind Boise and right below Hawaii.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (6-3) @ Arkansas State (5-4)
Geez, the Sun Belt. Two top teams in that conference for whatever that's worth, but I'll go with the home team that's seemed more competitive out of conference.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
New Mexico State (2-7) @ Fresno State (1-7)
Is Fresno a I-AA team? No?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
North Texas (2-7) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4)
Well, UNT's pretty much given up. ULL's been unimpressive in conference play, but hey, they beat Houston.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
TCU (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-4)
TCU's rolled over the dregs of the MWC, while UNM's squeaked by. The Lobos are more impressive than expected, but they're probably outclassed here.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
#13 Boise State (9-0) @ San Jose State (6-2)
If SJSU pulls off the upset, then I give up. And God, it's possible.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
6:15 PM
Oregon State (6-3) @ UCLA (4-5)
UCLA seemed to have gotten the offensive kinks worked out against Cal. As for Oregon State, I'm not sure if I buy them just yet, but they've been the more impressive team.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#15 Tennessee (7-2) @ #11 Arkansas (8-1)
Arkansas has beaten up on nothing competition lately, so now they might be exposed. Tennessee was somewhat overrated in the top ten, but they're perfectly capable and new QB Jonathan Crompton is whatever a synonym for capable is. That said, Tennessee's run defense isn't that great, and that'll definitely be a problem here.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-4) @ #14 Oklahoma (7-2)
Tech's always a threat just out of sheer volume of passes, but Oklahoma has its defense together, and I think the TTU defense is just what a struggling quarterback ordered.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Duke (0-9) @ #24 Boston College (7-2)
As much as I don't really like BC, there's no excuse to not win this easy.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4
Louisiana-Monroe (1-7) @ Florida International (0-8)
The worst game of the year.
My Pick: Florida International
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
Alabama (6-4) @ #10 LSU (7-2)
Alabama's offense looked like it existed for a while, but not so much now. So LSU will probably kill them.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#3 Texas (9-1) @ Kansas State (6-4)
I have absolutely no idea how Kansas State has 6 wins.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
#23 Wake Forest (8-1) @ Florida State (5-4)
FSU's actually competitive, they've just had some hard luck in games like the Maryland one. Wake's not as good as their record, but then again, I suppose they are in the ACC. Anyway, I'm looking for some return to the mean for both teams, which means...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
Central Florida (2-7) @ Memphis (1-8)
Memphis is pretty awful. Central Florida is just bad. Which is better than awful.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Washington State (6-4) @ Arizona State (5-4)
Wazzou's a wholly decent team, almost making my top 25 before losing to Arizona in a game that was statistically about even. Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has absolutely imploded. Though I will say, in the Pac 10, like most conferences this year, who the hell knows.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
UNLV (1-8) @ San Diego State (1-7)
I guess I'll take the team that beat the I-A team (and a pretty good Air Force squad at that) but lost to the I-AA over one that's done neither.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
10:15 PM
#21 Oregon (7-2) @ #7 USC (7-1)
Oregon's defense ain't too great, and well, they're not winning at USC.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
11:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (3-6) @ Hawaii (7-2)
Create your own summary! Use a combination of any of the following words and phrases: Passtastic, blowout, no defense, next Temple, 6 touchdowns for Colt Brennan.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
12:00 PM
Cincinnati (5-4) @ #8 West Virginia (7-1)
...Rutgers? Anyway, I don't even know anymore. But seriously. Cincinnati is a wholly decent team, and going there may be a trap game for the aforementioned Scarlet Knights. That game will likely be more interesting than this, with a Mountaineers team looking to prove themselves at home against a team that will probably allow them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#16 Wisconsin (9-1) @ Iowa (6-4)
Wisconsin looks like a good team, but that weak schedule works against that. Iowa's not as bad as they've been lately, and I'm looking for some regression to the mean, so the upset would not shock me at all. I dig Wisconsin's mini-Michigan thing they've got going on, but I'm gonna pick the rebound.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
#18 Georgia Tech (7-2) @ North Carolina (1-8)
Joe Dailey is...oddly resurgent, even if that requires once being good. And GT keeps winning only 7 games under Chan Gailey. So...maybe. But probably not. UNC's pretty awful, and, well, Calvin Johnson.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-6) @ #25 Clemson (7-3)
NC State looks hapless like, I don't know, a duck without a head. I probably mixed metaphors there or something. Still better than UNC and Duke, though, sadly. Anyway, Clemson. They're worrying me because they're pulling a reverse of what they usually do, tailing off rather than picking up as the season goes on. If they don't win this, I've lost all hope.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Purdue (6-4) @ Illinois (2-8)
Illinois hung in there last week against a high-octane Ohio State offense. Purdue's offense contains significantly less octane, and their defense is horrible, so hey, why not?
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (4-6) @ Michigan State (4-6)
Both these teams are hopeless. For probably one last time, I guess I'll take good talent and horrible coaching over mediocre talent and mediocre coaching.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Syracuse (3-6) @ South Florida (6-3)
USF seems like a different team at home, with their only loss there to Rutgers by 2. Undefeated Rutgers. God. Anyway. Cuse could pull off the upset, but probably not in Tampa.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Georgia (6-4) @ #4 Auburn (9-1)
That Bulldogs offense. Ohhhh that Bulldogs offense. Or lack thereof. Sigh. Auburn can be inconsistent, but with Georgia's defense looking not so great and that offense being, well, offensive, the Tigers should walk.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Baylor (4-6) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
OK State's momentum hit a brick wall against Texas, but well, that'll happen. The new Baylor QB, whose name escapes me but it's long and eastern European, seems to be more mobile than Shawn Bell, but, well, not as good. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Marshall (4-5) @ East Carolina (5-4)
Two teams on 3-game winning streaks, but ECU's been much more impressive with theirs including a win over Southern Miss. Plus the Pirates are at home. Though with C-USA, who knows.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Navy (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-8)
Navy's running game hasn't missed a beat with their new QB, although they'll miss Brian Hampton's passing. But that doesn't matter much for Navy, and probably won't matter against a subpar MAC team.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
Vanderbilt (4-6) @ Kentucky (5-4)
Vanderbilt's competitive. Kentucky's improved from last year, but they're still not that great. Still, with the Georgia wins cancelling out, Kentucky has the best win among the two (Central Michigan, really) and the home-field advantage. Upset, if you consider Vandy winning an upset, could easily happen.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Colorado State (4-5) @ Utah (5-4)
Utah's inconsistent, but CSU looks dead and buried.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
Southern Miss (5-4) @ Tulane (3-6)
Tulane got killed by Marshall, so a once-mediocre team now looks just bad. USM still has that defense. The offense not so much, but that defense. Tulane has an offense where they could put together enough points to put up the upset, but I'm not picking it.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Iowa State (3-7) @ Colorado (1-9)
Colorado's improved, and ISU...sigh. I'd give them a chance if they were playing to save their coach, but he's already given up. Rightfully.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Houston (7-3) @ SMU (5-4)
Houston's inconsistent, but I don't think enough to lose here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Rice (4-5) @ Tulsa (7-2)
Rice actually looks pretty decent. Tulsa's looking to redeem themselves after that Houston loss, though. Uh oh.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (10-0) @ Indiana (5-5)
Indiana's fortunes hinge on QB Kellen Lewis, who might be the most inconsistent player in the nation. Michigan has to be beaten by the opposing QB, and I don't think the good Lewis is showing up with that Michigan defense in his face.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#2 Ohio State (10-0) @ Northwestern (3-7)
I think Northwestern might actually be no Illinois.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
South Carolina (5-4) @ #6 Florida (8-1)
Florida's vulnerable, but against, Vandy's better than you'd think. SC's QB situation is in flux, so the chance for the upset is moderately slim, but bet against Spurrier in Gainesville at your own risk.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
#8 Cal (8-1) @ Arizona (4-5)
Cal's definitely vulnerable, but Arizona didn't look all that impressive despite beating Wazzou. And even though Cal looked bad for allowing UCLA to give up all those yards, who knows if Arizona's as good as them.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3
#22 Nebraska (7-3) @ #19 Texas A&M (8-2)
TAMU's tied into QB Stephen McGee, who looked horrible against Oklahoma. However, that OU defense has finally gotten its act together, so that can be counted as a mulligan. Nebraska looked good and beat Missouri last week, though, so this one's about even. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-4) @ #20 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Yeah no. Kent State looked like a good MAC team, then they lost by 31 to Buffalo, so there.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Connecticut (3-5)
Sigh. Pitt got shut down by the USF defense, and UConn's been good on that side of the ball lately, so they may be able to hold off a Pitt rebound for another week. Of course, it's pretty improbable the UConn offense will be able to score enough points to capitalize. Sigh.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-4) @ Maryland (7-2)
Maryland's the most overrated team in the country. Miami's not awful or anything, and heck, they actually are probably better than the Terps.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Temple (1-9) @ Penn State (6-4)
Yep.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
Stanford (0-9) @ Washington (4-6)
Washington may not have their one-man team, but I think Stanford is the new Temple. Yep.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
#12 Notre Dame (8-1) @ Air Force (4-4)
Man, how does Notre Dame keep winning against this fearsome schedule.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
Troy (4-4) @ Florida Atlantic (3-6)
Geez, the Sun Belt. FAU's surprisingly competitive, but I'll go with the better team.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Utah State (1-8) @ Nevada (6-3)
Utah State's hopeless. Sigh. Nevada's one of the top teams in the WAC, probably behind Boise and right below Hawaii.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (6-3) @ Arkansas State (5-4)
Geez, the Sun Belt. Two top teams in that conference for whatever that's worth, but I'll go with the home team that's seemed more competitive out of conference.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
New Mexico State (2-7) @ Fresno State (1-7)
Is Fresno a I-AA team? No?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
North Texas (2-7) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4)
Well, UNT's pretty much given up. ULL's been unimpressive in conference play, but hey, they beat Houston.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
TCU (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-4)
TCU's rolled over the dregs of the MWC, while UNM's squeaked by. The Lobos are more impressive than expected, but they're probably outclassed here.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
#13 Boise State (9-0) @ San Jose State (6-2)
If SJSU pulls off the upset, then I give up. And God, it's possible.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
6:15 PM
Oregon State (6-3) @ UCLA (4-5)
UCLA seemed to have gotten the offensive kinks worked out against Cal. As for Oregon State, I'm not sure if I buy them just yet, but they've been the more impressive team.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#15 Tennessee (7-2) @ #11 Arkansas (8-1)
Arkansas has beaten up on nothing competition lately, so now they might be exposed. Tennessee was somewhat overrated in the top ten, but they're perfectly capable and new QB Jonathan Crompton is whatever a synonym for capable is. That said, Tennessee's run defense isn't that great, and that'll definitely be a problem here.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-4) @ #14 Oklahoma (7-2)
Tech's always a threat just out of sheer volume of passes, but Oklahoma has its defense together, and I think the TTU defense is just what a struggling quarterback ordered.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Duke (0-9) @ #24 Boston College (7-2)
As much as I don't really like BC, there's no excuse to not win this easy.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4
Louisiana-Monroe (1-7) @ Florida International (0-8)
The worst game of the year.
My Pick: Florida International
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
Alabama (6-4) @ #10 LSU (7-2)
Alabama's offense looked like it existed for a while, but not so much now. So LSU will probably kill them.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#3 Texas (9-1) @ Kansas State (6-4)
I have absolutely no idea how Kansas State has 6 wins.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
#23 Wake Forest (8-1) @ Florida State (5-4)
FSU's actually competitive, they've just had some hard luck in games like the Maryland one. Wake's not as good as their record, but then again, I suppose they are in the ACC. Anyway, I'm looking for some return to the mean for both teams, which means...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
Central Florida (2-7) @ Memphis (1-8)
Memphis is pretty awful. Central Florida is just bad. Which is better than awful.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Washington State (6-4) @ Arizona State (5-4)
Wazzou's a wholly decent team, almost making my top 25 before losing to Arizona in a game that was statistically about even. Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has absolutely imploded. Though I will say, in the Pac 10, like most conferences this year, who the hell knows.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
UNLV (1-8) @ San Diego State (1-7)
I guess I'll take the team that beat the I-A team (and a pretty good Air Force squad at that) but lost to the I-AA over one that's done neither.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
10:15 PM
#21 Oregon (7-2) @ #7 USC (7-1)
Oregon's defense ain't too great, and well, they're not winning at USC.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
11:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (3-6) @ Hawaii (7-2)
Create your own summary! Use a combination of any of the following words and phrases: Passtastic, blowout, no defense, next Temple, 6 touchdowns for Colt Brennan.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Week 10 Recap
#1 Michigan 34, Ball State 26
Michigan actually pretty much executed their gameplan: run the ball and stop the other team from doing so. Mike Hart ran for 154 and a TD, and Brandon Minor added 108 and a score on the ground. On the flipside, the Michigan D held Ball State to 84 rushing yards. Now the bad news: Chad Henne looked average, going 17/25 passing, but for only 155 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT. And BSU QB Nate Davis put up 250 yards through the air, so it cements that Michigan is beatable if a QB is good enough. The question is if Troy Smith is good enough anymore, at least after...
#2 Ohio State 17, Illinois 10
Not a situation where you have to look beyond the score -- this was just a shit offensive performance by the Buckeyes. Antonio Pittman only had 58 and a score on the ground, while Troy Smith had his worst game of the year, only going 13/23 for 108 and a pick. The OSU offense suddenly looks a lot more stoppable. Uh oh.
#12 Louisville 44, #3 West Virginia 34
Turnovers were the order of the day here, as the Mountaineers outgained UL 575-491, but fumbled it over 3 times. Plus two of Louisville's TDs were on special teams and defense. Normally, I'd say that this shows Louisville would get killed against the OSU/Michigan winner, but both of those teams also looked vulnerable. So basically, Rutgers will beat Louisville, West Virginia will beat Rutgers, and then who the hell knows.
#4 Texas 36, Oklahoma State 10
Oof. OSU was on a hot streak, but obviously got shot down to earth here. The Texas defense also regressed (well, progressed) to their mean, holding the Cowboys to only 219 yards. So, Texas reminds everyone of their conference dominance, while OK State, hey, you gave it a go. You've done better than expected this year!
#5 Florida 25, Vanderbilt 19
Ack. The good for Chris Leak: 18/25, 237 yards, 2 rushing TD. The bad: 1 passing TD, 3 INT. Vandy QB Chris Nickson, meanwhile, had a statline more expected of Chris Leak: 27/44, 298, 2/1 TD/INT. And he's only a redshirt freshmen, people. A performance like this has me quite down on Florida for the moment, but then again, Vanderbilt's a lot better than expected, and may finally make a bowl next year.
#7 USC 42, Stanford 0
An efficient destruction. Stanford is so awful.
#8 Cal 38, UCLA 24
UCLA...probably should've won this one. QB Patrick Cowan threw for 329, but in the killer, had 0 TDs and 2 picks. RB Chris Markey had a huge day too, with 136 and a score on the ground. On the Cal side, Marshawn Lynch ran for 81 and a TD, but QB Nate Longshore was a one-man team, going 20/24 for 266 and 3 TD. A performance like that for Longshore gives some optimism, but with a defensive performance that bad, they're definitely vulnerable.
#9 LSU 28, #10 Tennessee 24
And only that close because of JaMarcus Russell's 3 picks. Say what you will about the running back by committee, but it was good for 259 yards, 6 short of Tennessee's 265 total. Put that on top of Russell's 247 yards and 3 TD through the air, and you have a good old-fashioned whoopin'.
#11 Notre Dame 45, North Carolina 26
Brady Quinn had a great day, but here's the biggest indictment of Notre Dame's defense I can possibly give:
Joe Dailey: 14/22, 213 yards, 3 TD
#13 Arkansas 26, South Carolina 20
That Gamecocks QB situation is in flux, and for a Spurrier team, uh oh. On the Arkansas side, holy crap. Mitch Mustain threw one pass for one pick, then Casey Dick came in and threw for a respectable 228, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Darren McFadden though, holy f. 219 yards and 2 TD. As much as I'm tempted to say "Good thing the Razorbacks didn't come down from those big wins against Southeastern Missouri State and Ole Miss", but this was a legit good performance by Arkansas.
#14 Boise State 45, Fresno State 21
FRESNO STATE FINALLY GOT AN INTERCEPTION! I could try and dissect this, but basically, Fresno is quite shit.
Maryland 13, #15 Clemson 12
So...uh...what? How? The stats show that Maryland got outplayed everywhere but, you know, the score. Which is the story of their year, actually. With Miami, BC, and Wake to finish the year though, hopefully the Terps will be put in their rightful place.
#16 Oklahoma 17, #17 Texas A&M 16
TAMU's fortunes are tied into QB Stephen McGee, and his line? 8/18, 63, INT. Of course, OU's Paul Thompson may have been worse: 3/12 for 39, but with a rushing TD. Oklahoma looks to be fine, with the defense playing well and RB Allen Patrick (173, TD) filling in amicably for Adrian Peterson. A better QB would be nice, but if they can beat A&M, they should have no problem from here on out.
#18 Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
Wow, the Badgers held PSU to only 79 rushing yards. And won mostly on RB Pat Hill's 148 yards on the ground. I said it before and I'll say it again: mini-Michigan, even if this is probably the biggest win UW has had. Oh and Anthony Morelli sucks.
Wake Forest 21, #20 Boston College 14
Ironically, BC probably should've won this one, outgainined Wake 468-296. Matt Ryan was pretty much the entire BC offense, throwing for 402 and a 1/2 TD/INT ratio, although Wake QB Riley Skinner's was the same. God, I give up on the ACC.
#21 Virginia Tech 17, Miami 10
Abysmal offensive performance by both teams (although VT RB Branden Ore had 2 TDs on only 79 yards), and that's really all worth mentioning.
#22 Georgia Tech 31, NC State 23
NCSU had no offensive touchdowns, and most of their offense was 270 Dan Evans passing yards that went nowhere. Also, it's amazing what throwing it to Calvin Johnson can do, as he had 168 yards and caught 2 of Reggie Ball's 4 TDs. GT's probably the de facto ACC favorite until they lose at UNC or something dumb, while NC State seems to be back in the depths they were before the QB change.
#23 Oregon 34, Washington 14
Washington only gained 176 yards, but after some of Oregon's recent performances, I think that speaks more about what dire straits the U-Dub offense is in without Isaiah Stanback.
Nebraska 34, #24 Missouri 20
Pretty much even except for Nebraska's 40-yard rushing edge. And the Tigers sucked on third down. Still two above-average teams, Nebraska's just now the one with Big 12 North supremacy.
#25 BYU 24, Colorado State 3
One-sided. BYU's still the clear class of MWC, though that season-ending game at Utah looms.
Air Force 43, Army 7
Oof. Not this one-sided, but Army turnovers and AFA defensive touchdowns kept this from being a game.
Akron 35, Bowling Green 28
Wow, the Zips just opened up one, racking up 470 yards and winning despite 3 turnovers. BGSU QB Anthony Turner was a one-man team, passing for 192 with a score and rushing for 105 and 3 TD, but, well, that one-man team couldn't beat Temple.
Mississippi State 24, Alabama 16
=-o. A shockingly even game, by which I mean both offenses kind of suck. But good for the Bulldogs.
Arizona 27, Washington State 17
I would say that Arizona throwing for a 78 yard TD the third play of the game was a major factor in such a statistically even game, but Wazzou answered with a 91-yard score a few drives later. Wazzou probably should've won this one statistically, but Arizona held the edge in the rushing game, and RB Chris Henry's 2 TDs made the difference.
Oregon State 44, Arizona State 10
The implosion of Rudy Carpenter continues, as this week's ASU QB line: 9/27, 124, 2 INT. Somewhere, scratch that, in Lincoln, Nebraska, Sam Keller laughs.
Texas Tech 55, Baylor 21
New Baylor QB Blake Szymanski had a decent showing, throwing for 190 and a 1/1 TD/INT, while rushing for 2 scores. However, the Baylor D got whatever the football equivalent of being punched in the uterus is. Texas Tech running back, yes, Texas Tech has running backs, Shannon Woods ran for 125 and 3 TD on only 10 carries. And of course, QB Graham Harrell: 35/52, 483, 4 TD, INT.
Buffalo 41, Kent State 14
!!!
...
???
Central Michigan 42, Temple 26
Just need to type it out to make sure that Temple isn't on a winning streak, because then the world would end.
Kentucky 24, Georgia 20
Oh God that Georgia offense just makes me actually feel pain. QB Matthew Stafford was pretty much the Bulldogs' offense, and when he throws 3 picks, well.
Hawaii 63, Utah State 10
Colt Brennan threw for 6 TDs, so I figured that was worth a mention. Although he's probably done it at least once before this year that I've missed.
Houston 27, Tulsa 10
Oof, absolutely one-sided. And Tulsa's a pretty damn good team. Houston's loss to USM is understandable, but Louisiana-Lafayette? The hell? It's not this year's TCU-SMU, but it's close.
Minnesota 63, Indiana 26
Both teams put up 500+ yards, so it's not like the Hoosiers were completely dominated. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis may be this year's most frustratingly inconsistent player, throwing for 321 and 3 TDs, but also handing over 2 interceptions. Though really, to be 6-6 would be cake for a team that figured to have another of many rebuilding years. Minnesota still kind of sucks.
Northwestern 21, Iowa 7
Kirk Ferentz was an all-Yankee Conference LB for UConn in the 70s. C'mon, Kirk. You know you wanna come back home.
Kansas 41, Iowa State 10
I have no analysis, I just felt like pointing out that Iowa State really really sucks. The hell?
South Florida 22, Pittsburgh 12
THE TYLER PALKO BLUES IMPLOSION! There's a band named the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, you see. That was a funny reference. Anyway, decide which line is worse: Pitt QB Tyler Palko's 11/23, 159, 1/3 TD/INT ratio, or RB LaRod Stephens-Howling having only 29 yards. I blame the Wannstache based on pretty much nothing.
Michigan actually pretty much executed their gameplan: run the ball and stop the other team from doing so. Mike Hart ran for 154 and a TD, and Brandon Minor added 108 and a score on the ground. On the flipside, the Michigan D held Ball State to 84 rushing yards. Now the bad news: Chad Henne looked average, going 17/25 passing, but for only 155 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT. And BSU QB Nate Davis put up 250 yards through the air, so it cements that Michigan is beatable if a QB is good enough. The question is if Troy Smith is good enough anymore, at least after...
#2 Ohio State 17, Illinois 10
Not a situation where you have to look beyond the score -- this was just a shit offensive performance by the Buckeyes. Antonio Pittman only had 58 and a score on the ground, while Troy Smith had his worst game of the year, only going 13/23 for 108 and a pick. The OSU offense suddenly looks a lot more stoppable. Uh oh.
#12 Louisville 44, #3 West Virginia 34
Turnovers were the order of the day here, as the Mountaineers outgained UL 575-491, but fumbled it over 3 times. Plus two of Louisville's TDs were on special teams and defense. Normally, I'd say that this shows Louisville would get killed against the OSU/Michigan winner, but both of those teams also looked vulnerable. So basically, Rutgers will beat Louisville, West Virginia will beat Rutgers, and then who the hell knows.
#4 Texas 36, Oklahoma State 10
Oof. OSU was on a hot streak, but obviously got shot down to earth here. The Texas defense also regressed (well, progressed) to their mean, holding the Cowboys to only 219 yards. So, Texas reminds everyone of their conference dominance, while OK State, hey, you gave it a go. You've done better than expected this year!
#5 Florida 25, Vanderbilt 19
Ack. The good for Chris Leak: 18/25, 237 yards, 2 rushing TD. The bad: 1 passing TD, 3 INT. Vandy QB Chris Nickson, meanwhile, had a statline more expected of Chris Leak: 27/44, 298, 2/1 TD/INT. And he's only a redshirt freshmen, people. A performance like this has me quite down on Florida for the moment, but then again, Vanderbilt's a lot better than expected, and may finally make a bowl next year.
#7 USC 42, Stanford 0
An efficient destruction. Stanford is so awful.
#8 Cal 38, UCLA 24
UCLA...probably should've won this one. QB Patrick Cowan threw for 329, but in the killer, had 0 TDs and 2 picks. RB Chris Markey had a huge day too, with 136 and a score on the ground. On the Cal side, Marshawn Lynch ran for 81 and a TD, but QB Nate Longshore was a one-man team, going 20/24 for 266 and 3 TD. A performance like that for Longshore gives some optimism, but with a defensive performance that bad, they're definitely vulnerable.
#9 LSU 28, #10 Tennessee 24
And only that close because of JaMarcus Russell's 3 picks. Say what you will about the running back by committee, but it was good for 259 yards, 6 short of Tennessee's 265 total. Put that on top of Russell's 247 yards and 3 TD through the air, and you have a good old-fashioned whoopin'.
#11 Notre Dame 45, North Carolina 26
Brady Quinn had a great day, but here's the biggest indictment of Notre Dame's defense I can possibly give:
Joe Dailey: 14/22, 213 yards, 3 TD
#13 Arkansas 26, South Carolina 20
That Gamecocks QB situation is in flux, and for a Spurrier team, uh oh. On the Arkansas side, holy crap. Mitch Mustain threw one pass for one pick, then Casey Dick came in and threw for a respectable 228, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Darren McFadden though, holy f. 219 yards and 2 TD. As much as I'm tempted to say "Good thing the Razorbacks didn't come down from those big wins against Southeastern Missouri State and Ole Miss", but this was a legit good performance by Arkansas.
#14 Boise State 45, Fresno State 21
FRESNO STATE FINALLY GOT AN INTERCEPTION! I could try and dissect this, but basically, Fresno is quite shit.
Maryland 13, #15 Clemson 12
So...uh...what? How? The stats show that Maryland got outplayed everywhere but, you know, the score. Which is the story of their year, actually. With Miami, BC, and Wake to finish the year though, hopefully the Terps will be put in their rightful place.
#16 Oklahoma 17, #17 Texas A&M 16
TAMU's fortunes are tied into QB Stephen McGee, and his line? 8/18, 63, INT. Of course, OU's Paul Thompson may have been worse: 3/12 for 39, but with a rushing TD. Oklahoma looks to be fine, with the defense playing well and RB Allen Patrick (173, TD) filling in amicably for Adrian Peterson. A better QB would be nice, but if they can beat A&M, they should have no problem from here on out.
#18 Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
Wow, the Badgers held PSU to only 79 rushing yards. And won mostly on RB Pat Hill's 148 yards on the ground. I said it before and I'll say it again: mini-Michigan, even if this is probably the biggest win UW has had. Oh and Anthony Morelli sucks.
Wake Forest 21, #20 Boston College 14
Ironically, BC probably should've won this one, outgainined Wake 468-296. Matt Ryan was pretty much the entire BC offense, throwing for 402 and a 1/2 TD/INT ratio, although Wake QB Riley Skinner's was the same. God, I give up on the ACC.
#21 Virginia Tech 17, Miami 10
Abysmal offensive performance by both teams (although VT RB Branden Ore had 2 TDs on only 79 yards), and that's really all worth mentioning.
#22 Georgia Tech 31, NC State 23
NCSU had no offensive touchdowns, and most of their offense was 270 Dan Evans passing yards that went nowhere. Also, it's amazing what throwing it to Calvin Johnson can do, as he had 168 yards and caught 2 of Reggie Ball's 4 TDs. GT's probably the de facto ACC favorite until they lose at UNC or something dumb, while NC State seems to be back in the depths they were before the QB change.
#23 Oregon 34, Washington 14
Washington only gained 176 yards, but after some of Oregon's recent performances, I think that speaks more about what dire straits the U-Dub offense is in without Isaiah Stanback.
Nebraska 34, #24 Missouri 20
Pretty much even except for Nebraska's 40-yard rushing edge. And the Tigers sucked on third down. Still two above-average teams, Nebraska's just now the one with Big 12 North supremacy.
#25 BYU 24, Colorado State 3
One-sided. BYU's still the clear class of MWC, though that season-ending game at Utah looms.
Air Force 43, Army 7
Oof. Not this one-sided, but Army turnovers and AFA defensive touchdowns kept this from being a game.
Akron 35, Bowling Green 28
Wow, the Zips just opened up one, racking up 470 yards and winning despite 3 turnovers. BGSU QB Anthony Turner was a one-man team, passing for 192 with a score and rushing for 105 and 3 TD, but, well, that one-man team couldn't beat Temple.
Mississippi State 24, Alabama 16
=-o. A shockingly even game, by which I mean both offenses kind of suck. But good for the Bulldogs.
Arizona 27, Washington State 17
I would say that Arizona throwing for a 78 yard TD the third play of the game was a major factor in such a statistically even game, but Wazzou answered with a 91-yard score a few drives later. Wazzou probably should've won this one statistically, but Arizona held the edge in the rushing game, and RB Chris Henry's 2 TDs made the difference.
Oregon State 44, Arizona State 10
The implosion of Rudy Carpenter continues, as this week's ASU QB line: 9/27, 124, 2 INT. Somewhere, scratch that, in Lincoln, Nebraska, Sam Keller laughs.
Texas Tech 55, Baylor 21
New Baylor QB Blake Szymanski had a decent showing, throwing for 190 and a 1/1 TD/INT, while rushing for 2 scores. However, the Baylor D got whatever the football equivalent of being punched in the uterus is. Texas Tech running back, yes, Texas Tech has running backs, Shannon Woods ran for 125 and 3 TD on only 10 carries. And of course, QB Graham Harrell: 35/52, 483, 4 TD, INT.
Buffalo 41, Kent State 14
!!!
...
???
Central Michigan 42, Temple 26
Just need to type it out to make sure that Temple isn't on a winning streak, because then the world would end.
Kentucky 24, Georgia 20
Oh God that Georgia offense just makes me actually feel pain. QB Matthew Stafford was pretty much the Bulldogs' offense, and when he throws 3 picks, well.
Hawaii 63, Utah State 10
Colt Brennan threw for 6 TDs, so I figured that was worth a mention. Although he's probably done it at least once before this year that I've missed.
Houston 27, Tulsa 10
Oof, absolutely one-sided. And Tulsa's a pretty damn good team. Houston's loss to USM is understandable, but Louisiana-Lafayette? The hell? It's not this year's TCU-SMU, but it's close.
Minnesota 63, Indiana 26
Both teams put up 500+ yards, so it's not like the Hoosiers were completely dominated. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis may be this year's most frustratingly inconsistent player, throwing for 321 and 3 TDs, but also handing over 2 interceptions. Though really, to be 6-6 would be cake for a team that figured to have another of many rebuilding years. Minnesota still kind of sucks.
Northwestern 21, Iowa 7
Kirk Ferentz was an all-Yankee Conference LB for UConn in the 70s. C'mon, Kirk. You know you wanna come back home.
Kansas 41, Iowa State 10
I have no analysis, I just felt like pointing out that Iowa State really really sucks. The hell?
South Florida 22, Pittsburgh 12
THE TYLER PALKO BLUES IMPLOSION! There's a band named the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, you see. That was a funny reference. Anyway, decide which line is worse: Pitt QB Tyler Palko's 11/23, 159, 1/3 TD/INT ratio, or RB LaRod Stephens-Howling having only 29 yards. I blame the Wannstache based on pretty much nothing.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Week 10 Rundown: Saturday and Sunday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Ball State (3-6) @ #1 Michigan (9-0)
Uhhhhh no.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Maryland (6-2) @ #15 Clemson (7-2)
Who knows with the ACC. Maryland's pretty extremely lucky to be 4-4, let alone 6-2. Plus with the game at Clemson, plus with the Tigers probably looking to re-establish themselves, this could be an ugly one.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Penn State (6-3) @ #18 Wisconsin (8-1)
Wisconsin didn't look impressive at all against Illinois, so there's a chance for the mild upset. Wisconsin's schedule has been pretty weak, although that huge win against Indiana looks a lot better now, and they've been doing kind of a mini-Michigan impression. Wisconsin's definitely vulnerable, but the only thing keeping me from picking the upset is a big one: I absolutely do not trust Anthony Morelli to not implode and throw 3 picks in anything resembling a big-game situation.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
#24 Missouri (7-2) @ Nebraska (6-2)
Two above-average teams capable of having bad days. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 1
Baylor (4-5) @ Texas Tech (5-4)
Could've been a fun shootout before Baylor QB Shawn Bell got knocked out for the year. Should be a blowout now, though.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
Virginia (4-5) @ Florida State (4-4)
I don't even know anymore. FSU's even more hopeless than Miami, but they still have defensive talent. And I really don't trust UVA to do anything against a defense with, you know, talent.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
Indiana (5-4) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Indiana is actually the way better team, as Minnesota may be the worst squad in the Big Ten. Although Northwestern and Michigan State's coaching staff are giving them a run. There's been lots of retardedness this season, so the Gophers still have a chance, but the Hoosiers should win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Pittsburgh (6-2) @ South Florida (5-3)
USF's been a one-man team, and that one man team didn't looks so great against Cincinnati, which doesn't bode well here. Pitt seems to be a pretty good team in need of a signature win.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
12:05 PM
Northwestern (2-7) @ Iowa (6-3)
Iowa's done nothing to instill confidence, but Northwestern? Very bad.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
#5 Florida (7-1) @ Vanderbilt (4-5)
Vanderbilt's wholly decent, and QB Chris Nickson can be a one-man team at times. However, I don't think the Commodores will be able to do much on either side of the ball. Even if Chris Nickson is good, Chris Leak will probably be better.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Mississippi State (2-7) @ Alabama (6-3)
Alabama's defense are their usual above-average selves, but there are still lots of questions about that offense. There are no questions about Mississippi State's offense, though. It's very bad.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-5) @ Akron (3-5)
BGSU has a shot, between having to prove themselves and the MAC's general wackiness, but on general principle, I can't pick a team that just lost to Temple.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-3) @ Buffalo (1-7)
Burning question: Is Buffalo the new Temple?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (5-3) @ Temple (1-8)
If they win THIS, then I give up.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 4
Navy (5-3) @ Duke (0-8)
Burning question: Is Duke the new Temple?
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
Ohio (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-7)
Burning question: Is...you get the gist. But man, what a murderer's row of crap teams. EMU's probably the best of the four, but Ohio is suddenly the best team in the MAC.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
Georgia (6-3) @ Kentucky (4-4)
Yeah, Kentucky sucks. There's really not much to say. UGA is only like, a third of a team, as all they have is a pretty good defense. And that's a third more than the Wildcats.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Kansas (4-5) @ Iowa State (3-6)
Two disappointing teams. Kansas has a QB situation in flux, Iowa State's played the harder schedule, and the Cyclones are at home, so that's who I'm picking.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Yep.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
Arkansas State (5-3) @ #6 Auburn (8-1)
Arkansas State just got shut out at Florida Atlantic, so uh...no.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-7) @ #11 Notre Dame (7-1)
I think Brady Quinn might, just might, be able to outduel Joe Dailey.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
San Diego State (1-6) @ Wyoming (4-5)
Yeah, that optimism for SDSU, sure didn't last. Wyoming is decent but inconsistent.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
TCU (5-2) @ UNLV (1-7)
Yawn. TCU's nothing special. UNLV, however, is nothing. At least this year.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
3:05 PM
Hawaii (6-2) @ Utah State (1-7)
PASSTASTIC!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#2 Ohio State (9-0) @ Illinois (2-7)
Illinois may make a run, but they'll blow it. Because, well, that's what Ron Zook does. But even so, they probably won't even get that far.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#9 LSU (6-2) @ #10 Tennessee (7-1)
Tennessee beat Cal, and after that they...they...they. LSU's vanished against anyone of note, but they've impressed in their 6 games against crap competition. Which is 5 more than Tennessee's impressed in. If LSU plays at 2/3 the level they did against anyone but Auburn or Florida, they should win easy.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Washington (4-5) @ #23 Oregon (6-2)
Washington's a lost cause without QB Isaiah Stanback. Oregon may have lost to Washington State, but Washington is no Washington State.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-4) @ Colorado (1-8)
Bad @ Worse. I'll go with bad.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-3)
MTSU's probably the best team in the Sun Belt. Whatever that's worth.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-1) @ Houston (6-3)
These two teams look to be C-USA's best. There's too much parity in C-USA for a team to go undefeated, and this is Tulsa's last big test, and Tulsa's undefeated, so...
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 1
Miami of Ohio (1-8) @ Western Michigan (6-2)
The records pretty much speak for themselves.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
Purdue (5-4) @ Michigan State (4-5)
PUCKER PUCKER PUCKER
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
East Carolina (4-4) @ Central Florida (2-6)
ECU's win over USM makes them the class of the paritylicious C-USA East. The Pirates should win, but again, paritylicious.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3) @ Troy (3-4)
ULL lost to MTSU, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the only out-of-conference wins of note for the Sun Belt. Troy? Meh.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Arizona State (5-3) @ Oregon State (5-3)
Arizona's upgraded their game to pretty good, as has Oregon State. But one of these teams is hungry, and one is due for a letdown.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arizona (3-5) @ Washington State (6-3)
Wazzou almost cracked my top 25, so I obviously think they're a pretty good team. Arizona's disappointed and played below their talent, so there's a chance for some regression to the mean since Wazzou's still vulnerable. Just a chance, though.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
5:05 PM
Nevada (5-3) @ Idaho (4-5)
Idaho's one of the better teams in the mess of the WAC past the big three teams. However, Nevada is one of those big three.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#25 BYU (6-2) @ Colorado State (4-4)
BYU's far and away the class of the MWC. Colorado State as of a month or so ago could've had a chance, but the Rams have just fallen apart in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidnece: 2
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-3) @ #4 Texas (8-1)
OK State's been on a tear lately, mostly thanks to QB Bobby Reid. Nebraska and Mizzou are better teams, but OK State's been on a hotter streak, so this could be the team to knock off Texas. Probably not, though.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
#7 USC (6-1) @ Stanford (0-8)
AND USC's angry. Uh oh. Also, Stanford is probably the new Temple.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 5
#20 Boston College (7-1) @ Wake Forest (7-1)
BC has some fluky wins over good teams. However, all Wake has is...a really low strength of schedule.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
#22 Georgia Tech (6-2) @ NC State (3-5)
Ooh, let's play "What does each team have?" again. Georgia Tech has Calvin Johnson. NC State has...lost all momentum.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (2-6) @ North Texas (2-6)
Ew.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Tulane (3-5) @ Marshall (3-5)
Two competitively below-average teams that have each had players blow up lately (Tulane QB Lester Ricard and Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw.) It's pretty much a push, so I'll just go with my gut.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
#13 Arkansas (7-1) @ South Carolina (5-3)
Yeah, the Razorbacks are due to be knocked down a few pegs. Gamecocks are as good a team as any to do so, outperforming but still losing to a Tennessee team that's probably much better than the Hogs.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
UCLA (4-4) @ #8 Cal (7-1)
Karl Dorrell has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. Not changin' here.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
#16 Oklahoma (6-2) @ #17 Texas A&M (8-1)
TAMU has shown some offensive versatility, first being a heavy running team and now winning on the arm and legs of QB Stephen McGee. OU's defense gave up a lot of yardage, but forced a lot of turnovers, against Mizzou, and I trust in the former to repeat more than the latter.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
#21 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Miami (5-3)
The letdown effect works against VT, but Miami's whole season works against the 'Canes. Miami actually performed pretty well against GT, but almost lost to Duke, so their inconsistency prevents me from picking up the upset.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 1
San Jose State (5-2) @ New Mexico State (2-6)
I still can't accept SJSU being bowl eligible, but they're facing a team whose two wins are against I-AAs, so...well, here we are.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Rice (3-5) @ UTEP (4-4)
UTEP's better than that record. Rice is surprisingly improved, which means they're as good as that 3-5.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (4-4) @ Memphis (1-7)
USM's their usual defense-oriented self. Memphis is...lost without DeAngelo Williams.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 4
12:00 PM
Ball State (3-6) @ #1 Michigan (9-0)
Uhhhhh no.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Maryland (6-2) @ #15 Clemson (7-2)
Who knows with the ACC. Maryland's pretty extremely lucky to be 4-4, let alone 6-2. Plus with the game at Clemson, plus with the Tigers probably looking to re-establish themselves, this could be an ugly one.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Penn State (6-3) @ #18 Wisconsin (8-1)
Wisconsin didn't look impressive at all against Illinois, so there's a chance for the mild upset. Wisconsin's schedule has been pretty weak, although that huge win against Indiana looks a lot better now, and they've been doing kind of a mini-Michigan impression. Wisconsin's definitely vulnerable, but the only thing keeping me from picking the upset is a big one: I absolutely do not trust Anthony Morelli to not implode and throw 3 picks in anything resembling a big-game situation.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
#24 Missouri (7-2) @ Nebraska (6-2)
Two above-average teams capable of having bad days. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 1
Baylor (4-5) @ Texas Tech (5-4)
Could've been a fun shootout before Baylor QB Shawn Bell got knocked out for the year. Should be a blowout now, though.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
Virginia (4-5) @ Florida State (4-4)
I don't even know anymore. FSU's even more hopeless than Miami, but they still have defensive talent. And I really don't trust UVA to do anything against a defense with, you know, talent.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
Indiana (5-4) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Indiana is actually the way better team, as Minnesota may be the worst squad in the Big Ten. Although Northwestern and Michigan State's coaching staff are giving them a run. There's been lots of retardedness this season, so the Gophers still have a chance, but the Hoosiers should win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Pittsburgh (6-2) @ South Florida (5-3)
USF's been a one-man team, and that one man team didn't looks so great against Cincinnati, which doesn't bode well here. Pitt seems to be a pretty good team in need of a signature win.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
12:05 PM
Northwestern (2-7) @ Iowa (6-3)
Iowa's done nothing to instill confidence, but Northwestern? Very bad.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
#5 Florida (7-1) @ Vanderbilt (4-5)
Vanderbilt's wholly decent, and QB Chris Nickson can be a one-man team at times. However, I don't think the Commodores will be able to do much on either side of the ball. Even if Chris Nickson is good, Chris Leak will probably be better.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Mississippi State (2-7) @ Alabama (6-3)
Alabama's defense are their usual above-average selves, but there are still lots of questions about that offense. There are no questions about Mississippi State's offense, though. It's very bad.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-5) @ Akron (3-5)
BGSU has a shot, between having to prove themselves and the MAC's general wackiness, but on general principle, I can't pick a team that just lost to Temple.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-3) @ Buffalo (1-7)
Burning question: Is Buffalo the new Temple?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (5-3) @ Temple (1-8)
If they win THIS, then I give up.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 4
Navy (5-3) @ Duke (0-8)
Burning question: Is Duke the new Temple?
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
Ohio (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-7)
Burning question: Is...you get the gist. But man, what a murderer's row of crap teams. EMU's probably the best of the four, but Ohio is suddenly the best team in the MAC.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
Georgia (6-3) @ Kentucky (4-4)
Yeah, Kentucky sucks. There's really not much to say. UGA is only like, a third of a team, as all they have is a pretty good defense. And that's a third more than the Wildcats.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Kansas (4-5) @ Iowa State (3-6)
Two disappointing teams. Kansas has a QB situation in flux, Iowa State's played the harder schedule, and the Cyclones are at home, so that's who I'm picking.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Yep.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
Arkansas State (5-3) @ #6 Auburn (8-1)
Arkansas State just got shut out at Florida Atlantic, so uh...no.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-7) @ #11 Notre Dame (7-1)
I think Brady Quinn might, just might, be able to outduel Joe Dailey.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
San Diego State (1-6) @ Wyoming (4-5)
Yeah, that optimism for SDSU, sure didn't last. Wyoming is decent but inconsistent.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
TCU (5-2) @ UNLV (1-7)
Yawn. TCU's nothing special. UNLV, however, is nothing. At least this year.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
3:05 PM
Hawaii (6-2) @ Utah State (1-7)
PASSTASTIC!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#2 Ohio State (9-0) @ Illinois (2-7)
Illinois may make a run, but they'll blow it. Because, well, that's what Ron Zook does. But even so, they probably won't even get that far.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#9 LSU (6-2) @ #10 Tennessee (7-1)
Tennessee beat Cal, and after that they...they...they. LSU's vanished against anyone of note, but they've impressed in their 6 games against crap competition. Which is 5 more than Tennessee's impressed in. If LSU plays at 2/3 the level they did against anyone but Auburn or Florida, they should win easy.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Washington (4-5) @ #23 Oregon (6-2)
Washington's a lost cause without QB Isaiah Stanback. Oregon may have lost to Washington State, but Washington is no Washington State.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-4) @ Colorado (1-8)
Bad @ Worse. I'll go with bad.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-3)
MTSU's probably the best team in the Sun Belt. Whatever that's worth.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-1) @ Houston (6-3)
These two teams look to be C-USA's best. There's too much parity in C-USA for a team to go undefeated, and this is Tulsa's last big test, and Tulsa's undefeated, so...
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 1
Miami of Ohio (1-8) @ Western Michigan (6-2)
The records pretty much speak for themselves.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
Purdue (5-4) @ Michigan State (4-5)
PUCKER PUCKER PUCKER
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
East Carolina (4-4) @ Central Florida (2-6)
ECU's win over USM makes them the class of the paritylicious C-USA East. The Pirates should win, but again, paritylicious.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3) @ Troy (3-4)
ULL lost to MTSU, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the only out-of-conference wins of note for the Sun Belt. Troy? Meh.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Arizona State (5-3) @ Oregon State (5-3)
Arizona's upgraded their game to pretty good, as has Oregon State. But one of these teams is hungry, and one is due for a letdown.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arizona (3-5) @ Washington State (6-3)
Wazzou almost cracked my top 25, so I obviously think they're a pretty good team. Arizona's disappointed and played below their talent, so there's a chance for some regression to the mean since Wazzou's still vulnerable. Just a chance, though.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
5:05 PM
Nevada (5-3) @ Idaho (4-5)
Idaho's one of the better teams in the mess of the WAC past the big three teams. However, Nevada is one of those big three.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#25 BYU (6-2) @ Colorado State (4-4)
BYU's far and away the class of the MWC. Colorado State as of a month or so ago could've had a chance, but the Rams have just fallen apart in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidnece: 2
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-3) @ #4 Texas (8-1)
OK State's been on a tear lately, mostly thanks to QB Bobby Reid. Nebraska and Mizzou are better teams, but OK State's been on a hotter streak, so this could be the team to knock off Texas. Probably not, though.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
#7 USC (6-1) @ Stanford (0-8)
AND USC's angry. Uh oh. Also, Stanford is probably the new Temple.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 5
#20 Boston College (7-1) @ Wake Forest (7-1)
BC has some fluky wins over good teams. However, all Wake has is...a really low strength of schedule.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
#22 Georgia Tech (6-2) @ NC State (3-5)
Ooh, let's play "What does each team have?" again. Georgia Tech has Calvin Johnson. NC State has...lost all momentum.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (2-6) @ North Texas (2-6)
Ew.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Tulane (3-5) @ Marshall (3-5)
Two competitively below-average teams that have each had players blow up lately (Tulane QB Lester Ricard and Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw.) It's pretty much a push, so I'll just go with my gut.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
#13 Arkansas (7-1) @ South Carolina (5-3)
Yeah, the Razorbacks are due to be knocked down a few pegs. Gamecocks are as good a team as any to do so, outperforming but still losing to a Tennessee team that's probably much better than the Hogs.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
UCLA (4-4) @ #8 Cal (7-1)
Karl Dorrell has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. Not changin' here.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
#16 Oklahoma (6-2) @ #17 Texas A&M (8-1)
TAMU has shown some offensive versatility, first being a heavy running team and now winning on the arm and legs of QB Stephen McGee. OU's defense gave up a lot of yardage, but forced a lot of turnovers, against Mizzou, and I trust in the former to repeat more than the latter.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
#21 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Miami (5-3)
The letdown effect works against VT, but Miami's whole season works against the 'Canes. Miami actually performed pretty well against GT, but almost lost to Duke, so their inconsistency prevents me from picking up the upset.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 1
San Jose State (5-2) @ New Mexico State (2-6)
I still can't accept SJSU being bowl eligible, but they're facing a team whose two wins are against I-AAs, so...well, here we are.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Rice (3-5) @ UTEP (4-4)
UTEP's better than that record. Rice is surprisingly improved, which means they're as good as that 3-5.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (4-4) @ Memphis (1-7)
USM's their usual defense-oriented self. Memphis is...lost without DeAngelo Williams.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 4
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Week 9 Recap
Quick hits edition because I said so.
#1 Michigan 17, Northwestern 3
Another mediocre day by Henne, another good day by Hart, another absolutely motherfucking frightening day by the Michigan defense. Northwestern's leading rusher had 6 yards. A bit more trepidation about the Wolverines against Ohio State than in past weeks, as the loss of Manningham has really hurt the offense. Normally that doesn't matter, as teams need to beat Michigan using the pass and most QBs aren't up to the task, but if anyone is, it'd be Troy Smith.
#2 Ohio State 44, Minnesota 0
Though really, maybe not. In a huge blowout against an awful Minnesota team, Smith only had 183 and a TD. Though he probably didn't need to do any more. Basically, Indiana Game Troy Smith could beat the Michigan defense. This one? Probably not.
Oregon State 33, #3 USC 31
Ironically, USC looked better here than in a lot of their recent wins, mostly thanks to John David Booty's 406 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT.) 4 turnovers also killed the Trojans. And, you know, allowing 400 yards. I said I'd believe USC could lose when I see it, and now that I've seen it, I can downgrade them from "title contender" to "really good."
#5 Texas 35, Texas Tech 31
The only TTU line that matters: QB Graham Harrell: 42/62, 519, 3 TD, INT. Colt McCoy probably outperformed him though, matching Harrell in completion percentage (21/31), but throwing for 4 touchdowns and a pick. Texas is in USC territory: vulnerable, but the question is if they'll face anyone who can take advantage.
#6 Florida 21, Georgia 14
UGA held Florida to a relatively low 326 yards, but also turned the ball over 5 times. Whoops. Quite the ugly stat lines all over, except for Gators WR Andre Caldwell's rushing TD and receiving TD.
Virginia Tech 24, #7 Clemson 7
Oof. Clemson just got absolutely dominated by the Virginia Tech defense, only gaining 172 yards. Hokies RB Branden Ore both outgained and outscored Clemson, gaining 203 and scoring 2 TDs. I no longer know what to think in the ACC. The BCS bid will probably go to, like, Maryland.
#8 Auburn 23, Mississippi 17
Rebels QB Brent Schaeffer (8/16, 161, 1/2 TD/INT) had an awful day, as did most of the Ole Miss offense, but surprisingly the game remained close. Even if not statistically. Auburn still fails to impress me, either the stats or the score never really dominate.
#11 Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24
If not for 3 Syvelle Newton picks, the Gamecocks probably win this one. I really want to like you, Vols, just give me something to love.
#12 Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
I have nothing to say outside of over-the-top Notre Dame-bashing making fun of their overratedness.
#14 Arkansas 44, Louisiana-Monroe 10
Arkansas gave up 376 yards, but ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster also gave up 5 interceptions. Whoops.
#16 Oklahoma 26, #22 Missouri 10
Lots of dissonance between the score and the stats here. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel accounted for most of the Tigers' offense, gaining 359 of their 387 yards and scoring their long TD on the ground. Unfortunately, he also threw 3 picks, which was probably the difference in the game. On the OU side, Paul Thompson only threw for 127, but had 2 touchdowns and no picks. Meanwhile, RB Allen Patrick carried the load and ran it for 162. I'm still unsure of what to make of OU: the offense was efficient, but not overly productive, while the defense gave up a fair amount of yards, but forced 4 turnovers. Who knows. Sigh.
#17 Wisconsin 30, Illinois 24
So, 6 points is the handicap of having Ron Zook as your head coach.
#18 Rutgers 24, Connecticut 13
I give full credit/blame for this on the UConn offense and special teams. Well, the UConn quarterbacks and special teams. The one shining light for either team was backup Huskies RB Donald Brown running for 199 and 2 TD. So there's at least some optimism for UConn's future, as long as we recruit a quarterback.
Oklahoma State 41, #19 Nebraska 29
Pretty even, right down to one missed XP each. Both QBs threw well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both RBs ran well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both top WRs were productive, Nebraska's slightly more. More of an indication that OK State's improved greatly over the year than any great falling off by the Huskers.
#20 Boston College 41, Buffalo 0
Well, they finally got that undisputed, dominating win.
#21 Texas A&M 31, Baylor 21
The Aggies continued their overnight transition to a passing team, led by Stephen McGee's 215 yards and 2 TD through the air, along with 89 on the ground. Baylor looked pretty good, but with QB Shawn Bell being knocked out for the year, there goes the Bears' chance at bowl eligibility.
#24 Georgia Tech 30, Miami 23
Miami's offense has somewhat gotten its shit together, although it was mostly the two-man operation of QB Kyle Wright (246, TD, INT) and RB Javarris James (19 car, 133). GT was better though, as the Good Reggie Ball (188, 2 TD) showed up, and actually remembered to throw to Calvin Johnson. There's still some hope for Miami, although the fact that that now means "bowl eligibility" is pretty sad. I guess GT is now the default best team in the conference?
#25 Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 14
Jake Christensen (19/30, 256, 2/1 TD/INT) is a much better emergency QB than Jason Manson.
BYU 33, Air Force 14
Pretty one-sided. At least one thing is clear in the MWC: BYU's the top team. Now watch them lose next week.
Arizona State 26, Washington 23 (OT)
An actual good game (16/22, 170, 2 TD) for Rudy Carpenter! Washington? Meh. Running game seems decent, but with Stanback out, they probably won't have the QB consistency to regain their former form.
Tulane 42, Army 28
Tulane QB Lester Ricard's performance is worth noting: 33/43, 409 yards, 3 TD.
Temple 28, Bowling Green 14
=-O.
Vanderbilt 45, Duke 28
Vandy QB Chris Nickson could be a good one, and this could be the first of many great performances: 14/24, 250, 2 TD passing, 150 and 3 TD rushing.
East Carolina 20, Southern Miss 17 (OT)
USM only gained 180 yards. No offense, but that's almost, like, no offense.
Maryland 27, Florida State 24
And the Seminoles outgained UMD by 190 yards. I give up.
Indiana 46, Michigan State 21
And not even that close. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis: 15/26, 261 yards, 5/1 TD/INT. Yes, 5 touchdowns. Jeez.
Cal Poly 16, San Diego State 14
Well, that optimism for the Aztecs didn't last long.
#1 Michigan 17, Northwestern 3
Another mediocre day by Henne, another good day by Hart, another absolutely motherfucking frightening day by the Michigan defense. Northwestern's leading rusher had 6 yards. A bit more trepidation about the Wolverines against Ohio State than in past weeks, as the loss of Manningham has really hurt the offense. Normally that doesn't matter, as teams need to beat Michigan using the pass and most QBs aren't up to the task, but if anyone is, it'd be Troy Smith.
#2 Ohio State 44, Minnesota 0
Though really, maybe not. In a huge blowout against an awful Minnesota team, Smith only had 183 and a TD. Though he probably didn't need to do any more. Basically, Indiana Game Troy Smith could beat the Michigan defense. This one? Probably not.
Oregon State 33, #3 USC 31
Ironically, USC looked better here than in a lot of their recent wins, mostly thanks to John David Booty's 406 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT.) 4 turnovers also killed the Trojans. And, you know, allowing 400 yards. I said I'd believe USC could lose when I see it, and now that I've seen it, I can downgrade them from "title contender" to "really good."
#5 Texas 35, Texas Tech 31
The only TTU line that matters: QB Graham Harrell: 42/62, 519, 3 TD, INT. Colt McCoy probably outperformed him though, matching Harrell in completion percentage (21/31), but throwing for 4 touchdowns and a pick. Texas is in USC territory: vulnerable, but the question is if they'll face anyone who can take advantage.
#6 Florida 21, Georgia 14
UGA held Florida to a relatively low 326 yards, but also turned the ball over 5 times. Whoops. Quite the ugly stat lines all over, except for Gators WR Andre Caldwell's rushing TD and receiving TD.
Virginia Tech 24, #7 Clemson 7
Oof. Clemson just got absolutely dominated by the Virginia Tech defense, only gaining 172 yards. Hokies RB Branden Ore both outgained and outscored Clemson, gaining 203 and scoring 2 TDs. I no longer know what to think in the ACC. The BCS bid will probably go to, like, Maryland.
#8 Auburn 23, Mississippi 17
Rebels QB Brent Schaeffer (8/16, 161, 1/2 TD/INT) had an awful day, as did most of the Ole Miss offense, but surprisingly the game remained close. Even if not statistically. Auburn still fails to impress me, either the stats or the score never really dominate.
#11 Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24
If not for 3 Syvelle Newton picks, the Gamecocks probably win this one. I really want to like you, Vols, just give me something to love.
#12 Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
I have nothing to say outside of over-the-top Notre Dame-bashing making fun of their overratedness.
#14 Arkansas 44, Louisiana-Monroe 10
Arkansas gave up 376 yards, but ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster also gave up 5 interceptions. Whoops.
#16 Oklahoma 26, #22 Missouri 10
Lots of dissonance between the score and the stats here. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel accounted for most of the Tigers' offense, gaining 359 of their 387 yards and scoring their long TD on the ground. Unfortunately, he also threw 3 picks, which was probably the difference in the game. On the OU side, Paul Thompson only threw for 127, but had 2 touchdowns and no picks. Meanwhile, RB Allen Patrick carried the load and ran it for 162. I'm still unsure of what to make of OU: the offense was efficient, but not overly productive, while the defense gave up a fair amount of yards, but forced 4 turnovers. Who knows. Sigh.
#17 Wisconsin 30, Illinois 24
So, 6 points is the handicap of having Ron Zook as your head coach.
#18 Rutgers 24, Connecticut 13
I give full credit/blame for this on the UConn offense and special teams. Well, the UConn quarterbacks and special teams. The one shining light for either team was backup Huskies RB Donald Brown running for 199 and 2 TD. So there's at least some optimism for UConn's future, as long as we recruit a quarterback.
Oklahoma State 41, #19 Nebraska 29
Pretty even, right down to one missed XP each. Both QBs threw well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both RBs ran well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both top WRs were productive, Nebraska's slightly more. More of an indication that OK State's improved greatly over the year than any great falling off by the Huskers.
#20 Boston College 41, Buffalo 0
Well, they finally got that undisputed, dominating win.
#21 Texas A&M 31, Baylor 21
The Aggies continued their overnight transition to a passing team, led by Stephen McGee's 215 yards and 2 TD through the air, along with 89 on the ground. Baylor looked pretty good, but with QB Shawn Bell being knocked out for the year, there goes the Bears' chance at bowl eligibility.
#24 Georgia Tech 30, Miami 23
Miami's offense has somewhat gotten its shit together, although it was mostly the two-man operation of QB Kyle Wright (246, TD, INT) and RB Javarris James (19 car, 133). GT was better though, as the Good Reggie Ball (188, 2 TD) showed up, and actually remembered to throw to Calvin Johnson. There's still some hope for Miami, although the fact that that now means "bowl eligibility" is pretty sad. I guess GT is now the default best team in the conference?
#25 Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 14
Jake Christensen (19/30, 256, 2/1 TD/INT) is a much better emergency QB than Jason Manson.
BYU 33, Air Force 14
Pretty one-sided. At least one thing is clear in the MWC: BYU's the top team. Now watch them lose next week.
Arizona State 26, Washington 23 (OT)
An actual good game (16/22, 170, 2 TD) for Rudy Carpenter! Washington? Meh. Running game seems decent, but with Stanback out, they probably won't have the QB consistency to regain their former form.
Tulane 42, Army 28
Tulane QB Lester Ricard's performance is worth noting: 33/43, 409 yards, 3 TD.
Temple 28, Bowling Green 14
=-O.
Vanderbilt 45, Duke 28
Vandy QB Chris Nickson could be a good one, and this could be the first of many great performances: 14/24, 250, 2 TD passing, 150 and 3 TD rushing.
East Carolina 20, Southern Miss 17 (OT)
USM only gained 180 yards. No offense, but that's almost, like, no offense.
Maryland 27, Florida State 24
And the Seminoles outgained UMD by 190 yards. I give up.
Indiana 46, Michigan State 21
And not even that close. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis: 15/26, 261 yards, 5/1 TD/INT. Yes, 5 touchdowns. Jeez.
Cal Poly 16, San Diego State 14
Well, that optimism for the Aztecs didn't last long.
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Week 9 Rundown: Saturday and Sunday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Northwestern (2-6) @ #1 Michigan (8-0)
Come on now. Northwestern couldn't beat Michigan STATE. With a 35 point lead. Then again, stranger things have happened. No they haven't.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 5
#12 Notre Dame (6-1) @ Navy (5-2)
Sigh. Navy could've had a chance with QB Brian Hampton, but given how bad they looked without him against Rutgers...
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
#16 Oklahoma (5-2) @ #22 Missouri (7-1)
I really have no fucking clue. It really depends on if Oklahoma's defense is now legitimately good, or just happened to play Colorado. Since they kind of stopped Texas, I'll lean towards the former. However, even then, Missouri still has a chance. So, let's do some fun math here. If OU's defense is legit, OU has an 80% chance of winning. If it isn't, Missouri probably has a 95% or so chance of winning. And those averages equal...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Illinois (2-6) @ #17 Wisconsin (7-1)
Illinois has fallen back to earth, and even if they returned to a better form, the Wisconsin defense would probably shut them down.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (5-3) @ #25 Iowa (5-3)
Iowa probably isn't that great, but NIU hasn't done much of anything this year. Well, outside of Garrett Wolfe, but even he's been shut down the last two weeks. Wolfe may return to form, but even so, I doubt the upset will happen.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Syracuse (3-5) @ Cincinnati (4-4)
Boring, mediocre teams. I can't even make fun of Syracuse's lack of offense anymore, really. The push that is double apathy goes to the home team.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (4-4) @ Indiana (4-4)
Michigan State should win this easily based on talent. And lose this horrible based on coaching. The Spartans were down 35 to Northwestern and all, and probably got lucky (you think?) to beat the Wildcats. And Indiana, oddly, is much better than Northwestern.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
NC State (3-4) @ Virginia (3-5)
Virginia's win over UNC means nothing. The momentum of NCSU's quarterback change seems pretty much lost, but they're still facing the Cavaliers, who are the worst team in the ACC who doesn't have a legendary basketball coach.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 2
Penn State (5-3) @ Purdue (5-3)
Purdue's all high-powered offense, no-powered defense. Hey, maybe the offense is powered on the defense's suffering! Anyway, that Purdue high-powered offense has been getting shut down lately. Whoops!
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
#8 Auburn (7-1) @ Mississippi (2-6)
Ole Miss is awful. Auburn can be inconsistent, but this is one of those times where it doesn't matter.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Buffalo (1-6) @ #20 Boston College (6-1)
Finally, BC will get that unquestioned, dominating win.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Bowling Green (4-4) @ Temple (0-8)
I've run out of things to say about how bad Temple is.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (3-5) @ Duke (0-7)
Duke gave Miami a go, so there's actually hope. Still, Vanderbilt actually beat their overrated conference rival.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
BYU (5-2) @ Air Force (3-3)
This looked to be a clash between two MWC undefeateds. Then Air Force lost to conference bottomfeeder San Diego State. Whoops!
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Tulane (2-5)
Both teams have pretty much been competitive against teams around their own level. Neither's really better than the other, so push goes to home team.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
Ball State (2-6) @ Miami of Ohio (1-7)
Miami of Ohio has only beaten Buffalo, but only by a TD. Ball State clearly seems to be the better team, despite their lack of secondary. But neither are any good.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
Colorado (1-7) @ Kansas (3-5)
Kansas has been disappointing. But Colorado sucks.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
Ohio (5-3) @ Kent State (5-2)
Wow, this is the big MAC showdown for the year. Ohio's been riding a wave of momentum, but so has Kent, and the Golden Flashes' offense has looked better. Plus they're at home!
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
Kentucky (3-4) @ Mississippi State (2-6)
Mississippi State suddenly found their offense against the UGA defense of all teams. Kentucky's been inconsistent, but I figure MSU's probably falling back to earth.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-7) @ Alabama (5-3)
Yep.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
Minnesota (3-5) @ #2 Ohio State (8-0)
Minnesota's probably the worst team in the Big Ten. Uh oh.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#3 USC (6-0) @ Oregon State (4-3)
OSU might be without star RB Yvenson Bernard. They probably didn't have a chance with him.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Georgia (6-2) @ #6 Florida (6-1)
Mississippi State's performance last week pretty much cements that Georgia's defense isn't that great. So...then what DO they have? (A loss.)
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
#19 Nebraska (6-2) @ Oklahoma State (4-3)
OK State seems to be much better than expected this year. Nebraska looked great losing close to Texas, but part of me wonders if they've exhausted themselves. The OSU offense can put up a big game, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up a bunch of points and pull off the upset. I won't pick it, though.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 1
Miami (5-2) @ #24 Georgia Tech (5-2)
Miami's...pretty awful, actually. How the heck are they 5-2? Anyway, this could get ugly if someone on the GT coaching staff realizes Calvin Johnson is on their team. And it could get ugly even if they don't.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Central Florida (2-5) @ Houston (5-3)
Yeah, UCF's fallen back to earth this season. Houston's inconsistent, but one of the better teams in the C-USA.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Eastern Michigan (1-6) @ Western Michigan (5-2)
Oh Eastern, you poor, poor, inferior directional Michigan. Since this is a rivalry game and all, EMU may show up to play, so there is a chance of the upset, but ehhhh I doubt it.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
Wake Forest (6-1) @ North Carolina (1-6)
I don't really buy Wake, but UNC's basketball team may be better than their football team. Well, at football. At basketball too, obviously.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 4
North Texas (2-5) @ Troy (2-4)
Neither team has looked good in their Sun Belt games. Troy almost upset FSU that one week, and hey, they're at home! But in general, hooray Sun Belt parity.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Iowa State (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-4)
Bleh. ISU's inconsistent, but KSU's first impression of almost losing to Illinois State still sticks in my brain. In Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe I trust. For the time being.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (5-2) @ Florida Atlantic (2-5)
ASU or MTSU is the class of the Sun Belt. Arkansas State's running offense is EASILY the class of the Sun Belt, though. Florida Atlantic...is bad. Usually caveats about Sun Belt parity apply.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
New Mexico State (2-5) @ Nevada (4-3)
WACKY PASSTASTIC NMSU OFFENSE! That can only beat I-AA teams.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
UNLV (1-6) @ Utah (4-4)
Utes, quite inconsistent. UNLV, quite...a year away from being good.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:30 PM
Memphis (1-6) @ Marshall (2-5)
Marshall looked bad to start the year and has built their way up to mediocre (with a scary running back.) Memphis looked mediocre and built their way...up? to just bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (4-3) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2)
Oh, wait, I forgot about ULL. They're probably the class of the Sun Belt. MTSU's one of the better SBC teams, but the Ragin' Cajuns seem to be the most consistently good team in the conference. And hell, they beat Houston!
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (4-4) @ Colorado State (4-3)
Oh damn you, MWC parity. UNM has looked pretty good since losing to Portland State, while CSU was consistently slightly above average until Wyoming killed them this past week. I'll go with the team that's been better lately, but they're probably about even.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ San Jose State (4-2)
If SJSU's streak of good games was a fluke, they could lose here. It probably isn't, and hell, even if it is, they could still win.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
#5 Texas (7-1) @ Texas Tech (5-3)
Texas Tech can always pull off the upset, obviously, because of that offense. But they've beaten themselves against inferior defenses.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Monroe (1-6) @ #14 Arkansas (6-1)
Hell of a non-conference schedule, there, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Portland State @ #23 Oregon (5-2)
Hell of a non-conference schedule, there, Oregon.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 5
Akron (3-4) @ Toledo (2-6)
Oh, Toledo, why are you so bad this year. Akron's been disappointing too, but hell, at least they beat NC State.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 2
Arizona State (4-3) @ Washington (4-4)
Washington had the disappointing loss to Oregon State. Arizona State had the disappointing seven games before this one.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 2
Florida State (4-3) @ Maryland (5-2)
FSU began to get things together near the end of that BC game. The Seminoles could have cause to worry if they face a team who has beaten anyone. However, Maryland is not in that category.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Washington State (5-3) @ UCLA (4-3)
UCLA hanging in there with Notre Dame says more about Notre Dame being overrated than UCLA being, well, worth anything now that they don't have a quarterback.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:05 PM
#21 Texas A&M (7-1) @ Baylor (4-4)
Baylor? Pretty decent. A&M's looked vulnerable at times, with last week's OK State game being one of those, but the Aggies will probably beat Baylor on the ground. Maybe even through the air, although Baylor is a pretty good passing team. At any rate, there's a chance for an upset, but not as big of a chance as for an Aggie win.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
East Carolina (3-4) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's one of the better C-USA teams, and they're at home. ECU is decent, but the Golden Eagle defense could easily shut the Pirates down.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (4-4) @ TCU (4-2)
Wow, TCU's 0-2 in the MWC. Wyoming had the big Colorado State win, but talentwise, TCU is in the much highter tier of Mountain West teams. The Horned Frogs should win here, and if they don't, the season's probably a lost cause.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#11 Tennessee (6-1) @ South Carolina (5-2)
Tennessee's looked vulnerable, and is still coasting off that Cal win. South Carolina's been improved lately. It's at South Carolina. And I ain't pickin' against Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Cal Poly @ San Diego State (1-5)
Helluva night game.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Idaho (4-4) @ Hawaii (5-2)
Idaho's way improved, and probably the #4 or so team in the WAC (#5 if Fresno gets their act together.) But I doubt they can stop of catch up with that wacky Hawaii pass offense.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Connecticut (3-4) @ #18 Rutgers (7-0)
UConn was able to mostly quiet Slaton and White, but they run outside and down the sidelines. From what I've seen of Rutgers, they run it down the middle. Like Navy. Who ran for 501 against the Huskies. At UConn. Uh oh.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3
12:00 PM
Northwestern (2-6) @ #1 Michigan (8-0)
Come on now. Northwestern couldn't beat Michigan STATE. With a 35 point lead. Then again, stranger things have happened. No they haven't.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 5
#12 Notre Dame (6-1) @ Navy (5-2)
Sigh. Navy could've had a chance with QB Brian Hampton, but given how bad they looked without him against Rutgers...
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
#16 Oklahoma (5-2) @ #22 Missouri (7-1)
I really have no fucking clue. It really depends on if Oklahoma's defense is now legitimately good, or just happened to play Colorado. Since they kind of stopped Texas, I'll lean towards the former. However, even then, Missouri still has a chance. So, let's do some fun math here. If OU's defense is legit, OU has an 80% chance of winning. If it isn't, Missouri probably has a 95% or so chance of winning. And those averages equal...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
Illinois (2-6) @ #17 Wisconsin (7-1)
Illinois has fallen back to earth, and even if they returned to a better form, the Wisconsin defense would probably shut them down.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (5-3) @ #25 Iowa (5-3)
Iowa probably isn't that great, but NIU hasn't done much of anything this year. Well, outside of Garrett Wolfe, but even he's been shut down the last two weeks. Wolfe may return to form, but even so, I doubt the upset will happen.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Syracuse (3-5) @ Cincinnati (4-4)
Boring, mediocre teams. I can't even make fun of Syracuse's lack of offense anymore, really. The push that is double apathy goes to the home team.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Michigan State (4-4) @ Indiana (4-4)
Michigan State should win this easily based on talent. And lose this horrible based on coaching. The Spartans were down 35 to Northwestern and all, and probably got lucky (you think?) to beat the Wildcats. And Indiana, oddly, is much better than Northwestern.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
NC State (3-4) @ Virginia (3-5)
Virginia's win over UNC means nothing. The momentum of NCSU's quarterback change seems pretty much lost, but they're still facing the Cavaliers, who are the worst team in the ACC who doesn't have a legendary basketball coach.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 2
Penn State (5-3) @ Purdue (5-3)
Purdue's all high-powered offense, no-powered defense. Hey, maybe the offense is powered on the defense's suffering! Anyway, that Purdue high-powered offense has been getting shut down lately. Whoops!
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
#8 Auburn (7-1) @ Mississippi (2-6)
Ole Miss is awful. Auburn can be inconsistent, but this is one of those times where it doesn't matter.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Buffalo (1-6) @ #20 Boston College (6-1)
Finally, BC will get that unquestioned, dominating win.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 5
Bowling Green (4-4) @ Temple (0-8)
I've run out of things to say about how bad Temple is.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (3-5) @ Duke (0-7)
Duke gave Miami a go, so there's actually hope. Still, Vanderbilt actually beat their overrated conference rival.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
BYU (5-2) @ Air Force (3-3)
This looked to be a clash between two MWC undefeateds. Then Air Force lost to conference bottomfeeder San Diego State. Whoops!
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Tulane (2-5)
Both teams have pretty much been competitive against teams around their own level. Neither's really better than the other, so push goes to home team.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
Ball State (2-6) @ Miami of Ohio (1-7)
Miami of Ohio has only beaten Buffalo, but only by a TD. Ball State clearly seems to be the better team, despite their lack of secondary. But neither are any good.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
Colorado (1-7) @ Kansas (3-5)
Kansas has been disappointing. But Colorado sucks.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
Ohio (5-3) @ Kent State (5-2)
Wow, this is the big MAC showdown for the year. Ohio's been riding a wave of momentum, but so has Kent, and the Golden Flashes' offense has looked better. Plus they're at home!
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
Kentucky (3-4) @ Mississippi State (2-6)
Mississippi State suddenly found their offense against the UGA defense of all teams. Kentucky's been inconsistent, but I figure MSU's probably falling back to earth.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-7) @ Alabama (5-3)
Yep.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
Minnesota (3-5) @ #2 Ohio State (8-0)
Minnesota's probably the worst team in the Big Ten. Uh oh.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#3 USC (6-0) @ Oregon State (4-3)
OSU might be without star RB Yvenson Bernard. They probably didn't have a chance with him.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Georgia (6-2) @ #6 Florida (6-1)
Mississippi State's performance last week pretty much cements that Georgia's defense isn't that great. So...then what DO they have? (A loss.)
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
#19 Nebraska (6-2) @ Oklahoma State (4-3)
OK State seems to be much better than expected this year. Nebraska looked great losing close to Texas, but part of me wonders if they've exhausted themselves. The OSU offense can put up a big game, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up a bunch of points and pull off the upset. I won't pick it, though.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 1
Miami (5-2) @ #24 Georgia Tech (5-2)
Miami's...pretty awful, actually. How the heck are they 5-2? Anyway, this could get ugly if someone on the GT coaching staff realizes Calvin Johnson is on their team. And it could get ugly even if they don't.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
Central Florida (2-5) @ Houston (5-3)
Yeah, UCF's fallen back to earth this season. Houston's inconsistent, but one of the better teams in the C-USA.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Eastern Michigan (1-6) @ Western Michigan (5-2)
Oh Eastern, you poor, poor, inferior directional Michigan. Since this is a rivalry game and all, EMU may show up to play, so there is a chance of the upset, but ehhhh I doubt it.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
Wake Forest (6-1) @ North Carolina (1-6)
I don't really buy Wake, but UNC's basketball team may be better than their football team. Well, at football. At basketball too, obviously.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 4
North Texas (2-5) @ Troy (2-4)
Neither team has looked good in their Sun Belt games. Troy almost upset FSU that one week, and hey, they're at home! But in general, hooray Sun Belt parity.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Iowa State (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-4)
Bleh. ISU's inconsistent, but KSU's first impression of almost losing to Illinois State still sticks in my brain. In Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe I trust. For the time being.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (5-2) @ Florida Atlantic (2-5)
ASU or MTSU is the class of the Sun Belt. Arkansas State's running offense is EASILY the class of the Sun Belt, though. Florida Atlantic...is bad. Usually caveats about Sun Belt parity apply.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
New Mexico State (2-5) @ Nevada (4-3)
WACKY PASSTASTIC NMSU OFFENSE! That can only beat I-AA teams.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
UNLV (1-6) @ Utah (4-4)
Utes, quite inconsistent. UNLV, quite...a year away from being good.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:30 PM
Memphis (1-6) @ Marshall (2-5)
Marshall looked bad to start the year and has built their way up to mediocre (with a scary running back.) Memphis looked mediocre and built their way...up? to just bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (4-3) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2)
Oh, wait, I forgot about ULL. They're probably the class of the Sun Belt. MTSU's one of the better SBC teams, but the Ragin' Cajuns seem to be the most consistently good team in the conference. And hell, they beat Houston!
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (4-4) @ Colorado State (4-3)
Oh damn you, MWC parity. UNM has looked pretty good since losing to Portland State, while CSU was consistently slightly above average until Wyoming killed them this past week. I'll go with the team that's been better lately, but they're probably about even.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ San Jose State (4-2)
If SJSU's streak of good games was a fluke, they could lose here. It probably isn't, and hell, even if it is, they could still win.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
#5 Texas (7-1) @ Texas Tech (5-3)
Texas Tech can always pull off the upset, obviously, because of that offense. But they've beaten themselves against inferior defenses.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Monroe (1-6) @ #14 Arkansas (6-1)
Hell of a non-conference schedule, there, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Portland State @ #23 Oregon (5-2)
Hell of a non-conference schedule, there, Oregon.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 5
Akron (3-4) @ Toledo (2-6)
Oh, Toledo, why are you so bad this year. Akron's been disappointing too, but hell, at least they beat NC State.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 2
Arizona State (4-3) @ Washington (4-4)
Washington had the disappointing loss to Oregon State. Arizona State had the disappointing seven games before this one.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 2
Florida State (4-3) @ Maryland (5-2)
FSU began to get things together near the end of that BC game. The Seminoles could have cause to worry if they face a team who has beaten anyone. However, Maryland is not in that category.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Washington State (5-3) @ UCLA (4-3)
UCLA hanging in there with Notre Dame says more about Notre Dame being overrated than UCLA being, well, worth anything now that they don't have a quarterback.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:05 PM
#21 Texas A&M (7-1) @ Baylor (4-4)
Baylor? Pretty decent. A&M's looked vulnerable at times, with last week's OK State game being one of those, but the Aggies will probably beat Baylor on the ground. Maybe even through the air, although Baylor is a pretty good passing team. At any rate, there's a chance for an upset, but not as big of a chance as for an Aggie win.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
East Carolina (3-4) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's one of the better C-USA teams, and they're at home. ECU is decent, but the Golden Eagle defense could easily shut the Pirates down.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
Wyoming (4-4) @ TCU (4-2)
Wow, TCU's 0-2 in the MWC. Wyoming had the big Colorado State win, but talentwise, TCU is in the much highter tier of Mountain West teams. The Horned Frogs should win here, and if they don't, the season's probably a lost cause.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#11 Tennessee (6-1) @ South Carolina (5-2)
Tennessee's looked vulnerable, and is still coasting off that Cal win. South Carolina's been improved lately. It's at South Carolina. And I ain't pickin' against Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Cal Poly @ San Diego State (1-5)
Helluva night game.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Idaho (4-4) @ Hawaii (5-2)
Idaho's way improved, and probably the #4 or so team in the WAC (#5 if Fresno gets their act together.) But I doubt they can stop of catch up with that wacky Hawaii pass offense.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Connecticut (3-4) @ #18 Rutgers (7-0)
UConn was able to mostly quiet Slaton and White, but they run outside and down the sidelines. From what I've seen of Rutgers, they run it down the middle. Like Navy. Who ran for 501 against the Huskies. At UConn. Uh oh.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3
Monday, October 23, 2006
Week 8 Recap: The Rest
San Diego State 19, Air Force 12
AFA did their usual thing on the ground, but SDSU RB Atiyyah Henderson did them one better and ran for 142 and a score. And the Mountain West is further muddled. Sigh.
Oregon State 17, Arizona 10
3 turnovers each, the Beavers outrushing Arizona 153-66 was the difference. Oregon State may get to bowl eligibility, while Arizona looks like they'll have to wait another year.
Arizona State 38, Stanford 3
RUDY CARPENTER! 14/15, 160, TD! Hooray! However, it means nothing because Stanford is horrible. ASU's another team in the pack. Ten. Pack ten. Hahaha.
Western Michigan 41, Ball State 27
BALL STATE OUTGAINED SOMEONE PASSING! HOORAY! And only ran for 9 yards, so they lost.
Baylor 36, Kansas 35
Baylor still has no rushing game (100 yards), but still gained more on the ground than Kansas did on the air (98). And obviously, Kansas RB Jon Cornish had a huge day on the ground (196, 2 TD), and Baylor QB Shawn Bell was a one-man team (394, 5/2 TD/INT). Two teams are obviously even, PART OF THE PACK! Yep.
Boston College 24, Florida State 19
2 Drew Weatherford INTs + only 49 FSU rushing yards = this. I still don't buy BC huge, but they seem to be at least a pretty good team, obviously.
Wyoming 24, Colorado State 0
Ouch. CSU got outgained bad and turned it over 3 times. Just horribly one-sided. And the Mountain West is further muddled. Sigh.
Miami 20, Duke 15
Wow, Miami is bad. Duke outgained the Canes 400-391, and Miami needed a red zone INT to seal the win. One of Duke's 5 turnovers doesn't happen, and we're probably talking upset.
Hawaii 49, New Mexico State 30
Nobody broke 360 passing yards. I'm extremely disappointed.
Houston 34, UTEP 17
0/1 TD/INT ratio! THE JORDAN PALMER INTERCEPTION EXPERIENCE RETURNS! But the key was UTEP's inability to get a running game going, only gaining 30 on the ground.
Texas Tech 42, Iowa State 26
TTU QB Graham Harrell: 31/40, 368 yards, 6 TD. That's more like it.
Louisiana Tech 48, Utah State 35
Wow, the Bulldog offense just went KABOOM! 344 rushing, 226 passing. Jeez. The USU offense had a good day, but when you can't stop Louisiana Tech to that degree, you ain't winnin'.
Marshall 31, UAB 24
Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw is scary: 242 yards, 2 TD. And yeah, he pretty much won it.
Maryland 26, NC State 20
NCSU QB Daniel Evans: 15/26, 145, 2 INT. Honeymoon's over.
Michigan State 41, Northwestern 38
Wow. Yep. Ouch.
Minnesota 10, North Dakota State 9
And Minnesota got killed statistically. Worst team in the Big Ten, seemingly easy.
Virginia 23, North Carolina 0
Things are bad when Joe Dailey comes in in relief. Things are worse when he's the more effective quarterback.
Northern Illinois 43, Temple 21
Garrett Wolfe: 45 yards. There goes that.
AFA did their usual thing on the ground, but SDSU RB Atiyyah Henderson did them one better and ran for 142 and a score. And the Mountain West is further muddled. Sigh.
Oregon State 17, Arizona 10
3 turnovers each, the Beavers outrushing Arizona 153-66 was the difference. Oregon State may get to bowl eligibility, while Arizona looks like they'll have to wait another year.
Arizona State 38, Stanford 3
RUDY CARPENTER! 14/15, 160, TD! Hooray! However, it means nothing because Stanford is horrible. ASU's another team in the pack. Ten. Pack ten. Hahaha.
Western Michigan 41, Ball State 27
BALL STATE OUTGAINED SOMEONE PASSING! HOORAY! And only ran for 9 yards, so they lost.
Baylor 36, Kansas 35
Baylor still has no rushing game (100 yards), but still gained more on the ground than Kansas did on the air (98). And obviously, Kansas RB Jon Cornish had a huge day on the ground (196, 2 TD), and Baylor QB Shawn Bell was a one-man team (394, 5/2 TD/INT). Two teams are obviously even, PART OF THE PACK! Yep.
Boston College 24, Florida State 19
2 Drew Weatherford INTs + only 49 FSU rushing yards = this. I still don't buy BC huge, but they seem to be at least a pretty good team, obviously.
Wyoming 24, Colorado State 0
Ouch. CSU got outgained bad and turned it over 3 times. Just horribly one-sided. And the Mountain West is further muddled. Sigh.
Miami 20, Duke 15
Wow, Miami is bad. Duke outgained the Canes 400-391, and Miami needed a red zone INT to seal the win. One of Duke's 5 turnovers doesn't happen, and we're probably talking upset.
Hawaii 49, New Mexico State 30
Nobody broke 360 passing yards. I'm extremely disappointed.
Houston 34, UTEP 17
0/1 TD/INT ratio! THE JORDAN PALMER INTERCEPTION EXPERIENCE RETURNS! But the key was UTEP's inability to get a running game going, only gaining 30 on the ground.
Texas Tech 42, Iowa State 26
TTU QB Graham Harrell: 31/40, 368 yards, 6 TD. That's more like it.
Louisiana Tech 48, Utah State 35
Wow, the Bulldog offense just went KABOOM! 344 rushing, 226 passing. Jeez. The USU offense had a good day, but when you can't stop Louisiana Tech to that degree, you ain't winnin'.
Marshall 31, UAB 24
Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw is scary: 242 yards, 2 TD. And yeah, he pretty much won it.
Maryland 26, NC State 20
NCSU QB Daniel Evans: 15/26, 145, 2 INT. Honeymoon's over.
Michigan State 41, Northwestern 38
Wow. Yep. Ouch.
Minnesota 10, North Dakota State 9
And Minnesota got killed statistically. Worst team in the Big Ten, seemingly easy.
Virginia 23, North Carolina 0
Things are bad when Joe Dailey comes in in relief. Things are worse when he's the more effective quarterback.
Northern Illinois 43, Temple 21
Garrett Wolfe: 45 yards. There goes that.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Week 8 Rundown: Saturday and Sunday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Indiana (4-3) @ #2 Ohio State (7-0)
Indiana is...decent. I won't go too far just yet. But the Big Ten has a soft underbelly, so they'll be able to beat the Minnesotas and Northwesterns, or maybe even the Purdue. s. But, yeah, anyway, Ohio State. Even if the Hoosiers get something going offensively, I doubt they'll be able to stop the Buckeyes.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#5 Texas (6-1) @ #18 Nebraska (6-1)
Oooh. Nebraska's looked average against stiff competition, but really, Texas allowed 31 to Baylor. Texas should win this, but I could very easily see one or two breaks leading to a Huskers win. Could very easily be a shootout either way, too.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
#11 Louisville (6-0) @ Syracuse (3-4)
Cuse is actually exhibiting some offense here and there. Gasp. Louisville scraped one out at Cincy, so there may be some vulnerability, but Brohm's probably just getting back into a rhythm. And if he does during this game, uh oh.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
#22 Rutgers (6-0) @ #20 Pittsburgh (6-1)
Rutgers has the #1 scoring defense and #2 yardage defense in the nation (behind LSU.) That...probably says more about their weak schedule than anything. If the Scarlet Knights win here, I'll start taking them more seriously. However, here, especially on the road, is where I think they'll be exposed.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
#21 Wisconsin (6-1) @ Purdue (5-2)
Purdue's all offense, no defense. This could be close, but the Wisconsin offense is no slouch, and I could see them stopping the Boilermaker offense enough to get the win. So I'll go with the better team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
Illinois (2-5) @ Penn State (4-3)
Well, even if Morelli doesn't start, I'm sure whoever is QB will do a great job of...handing off to Tony Hunt. There's talent with the Illini (JUICE!), but not this year, not against this team.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-3) @ Maryland (4-2)
I'm banking that NC State's improvement under Daniel Evans is legit. Though really, either way, Maryland? Not very good.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (3-4) @ Northwestern (2-5)
Even the Michigan State coaches aren't this bad. I sincerely hope.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi (2-5) @ #17 Arkansas (5-1)
Mississippi has kept the scores closer than their horrible, horrible performances would suggest. However, they should get killed here, especially if the Rebels' season is just building up to all their luck running out at once.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Mississippi State (2-5) @ #25 Georgia (5-2)
Georgia has no offense. Mississippi State has...well, if Georgia has no offense, I guess Mississippi State has negative offense, then.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Miami (4-2) @ Duke (0-6)
This would be a hilarious fight. Although watch out for those Duke boys in groups, they'll ra....nah, I won't say it.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Western Michigan (4-2) @ Ball State (2-5)
Insert comment about Ball State's horrible horrible horrible horrible pass defense here. (Horrible.)
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 3
Buffalo (1-5) @ Ohio (4-3)
I love Buffalo, they make games so easy to pick.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
Kansas State (4-3) @ Missouri (6-1)
KSU's actually looked decent, but you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and the Wildcats almost lost to Illinois State in Week 1. Mizzou's solidly above-average, and while KSU has a chance, I think it's significantly less of one at Missouri.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
Tulane (2-4) @ #7 Auburn (6-1)
Uhhhhhhh yeah this is a mismatch.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
UCLA (4-2) @ #14 Notre Dame (5-1)
This could've been a fun shootout before UCLA's quarterback woes. Now it'll just be another BIG HEISMAN WORTHY WIN THAT PROVES NOTRE DAME DESERVES A BCS GAME!!!!!
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
UNLV (1-5) @ BYU (4-2)
BYU or Air Force is probably the best team in the MWC. Controversial, I know, especially since they're the two teams undefeated in the conference. Anyway, UNLV's pass defense doesn't seem too great or anything, and it'll probably look a lot worse after this game.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
SMU (4-3) @ East Carolina (2-4)
ECU's definitely played a tougher slate, but SMU's looked like a pretty good team since their awful season start. Both teams are probably even, but ECU somehow managed to be the only team to slow down West Virginia, and the Pirates are at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Toledo (2-5) @ Eastern Michigan (0-6)
Toledo looks like they've imploded after winning against Kansas and I-AA McNeese State. EMU, meanwhile, has had some bad losses, but looked good in their last game, a close defeat at Bowling Green. Toledo's probably the better and more talented team, but again, they just seem lost at the moment.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 1
South Carolina (4-2) @ Vanderbilt (3-4)
SC looks to be getting things together with Syvelle Newton at QB. Vandy can obviously pull of the big win, but I am going to go with the surging Cocks. There was no verb I could use there that wouldn't have been suggestive.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
3:05 PM
Kansas (3-4) @ Baylor (3-4)
Kansas has had some close losses, but Baylor should've had one too. Against Texas. This could go either way, but I still feel weird picking who I'm about to pick.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Temple (0-7) @ Northern Illinois (4-3)
Would it be out of the question for Garrett Wolfe to run for 600 and put him back on his previous pace?
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
#23 Iowa (5-2) @ #1 Michigan (7-0)
I find this game more worrisome for Michigan than the PSU one by a bunch. I get the feeling Drew Tate is due, and with the Michigan run defense, well, that's their only chance. And even then, probably still only a chance.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 2
Washington (4-3) @ #9 California (6-1)
When a one-man team is lost for the season, well, whoops.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
Alabama (5-2) @ #12 Tennessee (5-1)
A case could be made that Alabama's better than Georgia. Actually, thinking about that, that's probably true. Tennessee's hung their hat on that Cal win, and, well, beating a Georgia team that doesn't look so impressive now. Still, even if this is closer to a pick 'em than the polls would indicate, Tennessee's probably the better team, and the Vols are at home.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 1
Stanford (0-7) @ Arizona State (3-3)
Stanford's QB is out for the year. Yes, that was Stanford WITH a quarterback.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 4
TCU (3-2) @ Army (3-4)
TCU's thoroughly decent, probably above-average. Army, not so much.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Boston College (5-1) @ Florida State (4-2)
The Clemson win was gift-wrapped, but BC's win against BYU and loss against NC State look better now. I guess I buy BC moreso now, but still. I have no real evidence to back it up, unless Florida State's prestige counts during this mediocre season, but I've got a feeling...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Texas Tech (4-3) @ Iowa State (3-4)
ISU's another one of those teams that I don't think can stop the Red Raider passing attack. However, ISU will almost definitely put some points up, and said Texas Tech passing attack has more of a tendency to beat itself than in previous years. Plus, you know, TTU lost to Colorado. But still.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
North Dakota State @ Minnesota (2-5)
Yep.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 5
4:00 PM
Rice (2-5) @ Central Florida (2-4)
UCF's actually been pretty abysmal all year. Rice has shown inconsistent flashes, and is coming off a big win against UAB, but there are two reasons I'm picking against them: They're on the road, and they're still Rice.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Colorado State (4-2) @ Wyoming (3-4)
Two pretty good mid-majors. Not much separating them, as CSU's worst loss was to Nevada, while Wyoming's played everyone close, but Colorado State has had the stronger schedule. I'll go with the team with the better track record, though a result either way wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
#13 Oregon (5-1) @ Washington State (4-3)
Oregon seems to kindasortamaybe have kind of a defense. Which spells trouble for Pac 10 teams! Wazzou could be the #4 team in the Pac 10, so an upset isn't out of the question, but I'm not picking it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
5:05 PM
#15 Boise State (7-0) @ Idaho (4-3)
Idaho may be the surprise team of the WAC. Oh, wait, San Jose State, whoops. God the WAC is weird. Anyway, yeah, Boise's way better than everyone in the conference.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
6:00 PM
Miami of Ohio (1-6) @ Akron (2-4)
Uhhhh yeah Miami of Ohio is sadly pretty bad. Akron has also disappointed so far, but they're at least pretty decent. And at home!
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
Colorado (1-6) @ #16 Oklahoma (4-2)
It probably won't be apparent exactly how much the loss of Peterson will hurt OU until they face their first test. This probably ain't it.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 3
#24 Texas A&M (6-1) @ Oklahoma State (4-2)
The performance of TAMU QB Stephen McGee last week is what finally sold me on the Aggies. If McGee falters, I could easily see OK State pulling off the win. However, OK State may not be able to stop the A&M running game either way, and while I don't think A&M is a top 25-worthy team without a passing game, I think they could still win without it.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (3-3) @ Arizona (3-4)
Two about even teams that will probably hover around .500 at the end of the year. Arizona beat BYU at home, so they get the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-2) @ Houston (4-3)
Two inconsistent teams in the upper tier of C-USA. Houston especially has been slipping lately. Regression to the mean for both Houston and Jordan Palmer's interception total + Houston at home =:
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (3-3) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-5)
The Sun Belt is mostly full of parity, but ULM's pretty awful.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Utah State (1-6) @ Louisiana Tech (1-5)
LA Tech's played 4 teams in my top 25, so it's kind of hard to get a handle on how good (or not good) they are. USU's comparatively rolling from their offensive impotence at the beginning of the year. I'll go with the devil (or disappointing WAC team) I know.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-5) @ UAB (3-4)
Basically, bad @ inconsistent. Inconsistent's bad days <>
7:05 PM
North Texas (2-4) @ Arkansas State (4-2)
ASU or ULL are the definite Sun Belt favorites right now. AK State running game hooray! Usual caveats about Sun Belt talent parity apply.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#19 Georgia Tech (5-1) @ #8 Clemson (6-1)
Calvin Johnson's still a beast, but the team as a whole can be very inconsistent. See: the Maryland game. I trust Clemson to show up much more, and with the Tigers at home, I can't really envision the upset.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Air Force (3-2) @ San Diego State (0-5)
Air Force is as good as anyone in the conference. On the other side...well, patience, SDSU fans, patience.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 3
Hawaii (4-2) @ New Mexico State (2-4)
What's the over-under on yardage here? 1400 combined? Basically, this is going to come down to a game of "My passing attack is better than your passing attack." And, well, Hawaii's is way better.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
Tulsa (5-1) @ Memphis (1-5)
Tulsa's rolled in C-USA, and right now looks like the class of the conference. Memphis is...depressing.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
#10 LSU (5-2) @ Fresno State (1-5)
Maybe last year. Hahahahaha no not even then. The only question here is if Fresno or Louisiana-Lafayette is the worst team LSU has on their schedule. Just gotta keep it within 42, Bulldogs.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
South Florida (5-2) @ Cincinnati (3-4)
USF QB Matt Grothe has been a one-man team and a pretty big surprise. And he looked mostly fine last week against UNC. Cincinnati is decent, but so boringly so I don't really have much to say about them. They could win, but USF is better.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 2
12:00 PM
Indiana (4-3) @ #2 Ohio State (7-0)
Indiana is...decent. I won't go too far just yet. But the Big Ten has a soft underbelly, so they'll be able to beat the Minnesotas and Northwesterns, or maybe even the Purdue. s. But, yeah, anyway, Ohio State. Even if the Hoosiers get something going offensively, I doubt they'll be able to stop the Buckeyes.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#5 Texas (6-1) @ #18 Nebraska (6-1)
Oooh. Nebraska's looked average against stiff competition, but really, Texas allowed 31 to Baylor. Texas should win this, but I could very easily see one or two breaks leading to a Huskers win. Could very easily be a shootout either way, too.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
#11 Louisville (6-0) @ Syracuse (3-4)
Cuse is actually exhibiting some offense here and there. Gasp. Louisville scraped one out at Cincy, so there may be some vulnerability, but Brohm's probably just getting back into a rhythm. And if he does during this game, uh oh.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
#22 Rutgers (6-0) @ #20 Pittsburgh (6-1)
Rutgers has the #1 scoring defense and #2 yardage defense in the nation (behind LSU.) That...probably says more about their weak schedule than anything. If the Scarlet Knights win here, I'll start taking them more seriously. However, here, especially on the road, is where I think they'll be exposed.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
#21 Wisconsin (6-1) @ Purdue (5-2)
Purdue's all offense, no defense. This could be close, but the Wisconsin offense is no slouch, and I could see them stopping the Boilermaker offense enough to get the win. So I'll go with the better team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
Illinois (2-5) @ Penn State (4-3)
Well, even if Morelli doesn't start, I'm sure whoever is QB will do a great job of...handing off to Tony Hunt. There's talent with the Illini (JUICE!), but not this year, not against this team.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-3) @ Maryland (4-2)
I'm banking that NC State's improvement under Daniel Evans is legit. Though really, either way, Maryland? Not very good.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (3-4) @ Northwestern (2-5)
Even the Michigan State coaches aren't this bad. I sincerely hope.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi (2-5) @ #17 Arkansas (5-1)
Mississippi has kept the scores closer than their horrible, horrible performances would suggest. However, they should get killed here, especially if the Rebels' season is just building up to all their luck running out at once.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Mississippi State (2-5) @ #25 Georgia (5-2)
Georgia has no offense. Mississippi State has...well, if Georgia has no offense, I guess Mississippi State has negative offense, then.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
Miami (4-2) @ Duke (0-6)
This would be a hilarious fight. Although watch out for those Duke boys in groups, they'll ra....nah, I won't say it.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Western Michigan (4-2) @ Ball State (2-5)
Insert comment about Ball State's horrible horrible horrible horrible pass defense here. (Horrible.)
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 3
Buffalo (1-5) @ Ohio (4-3)
I love Buffalo, they make games so easy to pick.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
Kansas State (4-3) @ Missouri (6-1)
KSU's actually looked decent, but you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and the Wildcats almost lost to Illinois State in Week 1. Mizzou's solidly above-average, and while KSU has a chance, I think it's significantly less of one at Missouri.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
Tulane (2-4) @ #7 Auburn (6-1)
Uhhhhhhh yeah this is a mismatch.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
UCLA (4-2) @ #14 Notre Dame (5-1)
This could've been a fun shootout before UCLA's quarterback woes. Now it'll just be another BIG HEISMAN WORTHY WIN THAT PROVES NOTRE DAME DESERVES A BCS GAME!!!!!
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
UNLV (1-5) @ BYU (4-2)
BYU or Air Force is probably the best team in the MWC. Controversial, I know, especially since they're the two teams undefeated in the conference. Anyway, UNLV's pass defense doesn't seem too great or anything, and it'll probably look a lot worse after this game.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
SMU (4-3) @ East Carolina (2-4)
ECU's definitely played a tougher slate, but SMU's looked like a pretty good team since their awful season start. Both teams are probably even, but ECU somehow managed to be the only team to slow down West Virginia, and the Pirates are at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Toledo (2-5) @ Eastern Michigan (0-6)
Toledo looks like they've imploded after winning against Kansas and I-AA McNeese State. EMU, meanwhile, has had some bad losses, but looked good in their last game, a close defeat at Bowling Green. Toledo's probably the better and more talented team, but again, they just seem lost at the moment.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan
Confidence: 1
South Carolina (4-2) @ Vanderbilt (3-4)
SC looks to be getting things together with Syvelle Newton at QB. Vandy can obviously pull of the big win, but I am going to go with the surging Cocks. There was no verb I could use there that wouldn't have been suggestive.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
3:05 PM
Kansas (3-4) @ Baylor (3-4)
Kansas has had some close losses, but Baylor should've had one too. Against Texas. This could go either way, but I still feel weird picking who I'm about to pick.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Temple (0-7) @ Northern Illinois (4-3)
Would it be out of the question for Garrett Wolfe to run for 600 and put him back on his previous pace?
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 5
3:30 PM
#23 Iowa (5-2) @ #1 Michigan (7-0)
I find this game more worrisome for Michigan than the PSU one by a bunch. I get the feeling Drew Tate is due, and with the Michigan run defense, well, that's their only chance. And even then, probably still only a chance.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 2
Washington (4-3) @ #9 California (6-1)
When a one-man team is lost for the season, well, whoops.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
Alabama (5-2) @ #12 Tennessee (5-1)
A case could be made that Alabama's better than Georgia. Actually, thinking about that, that's probably true. Tennessee's hung their hat on that Cal win, and, well, beating a Georgia team that doesn't look so impressive now. Still, even if this is closer to a pick 'em than the polls would indicate, Tennessee's probably the better team, and the Vols are at home.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 1
Stanford (0-7) @ Arizona State (3-3)
Stanford's QB is out for the year. Yes, that was Stanford WITH a quarterback.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 4
TCU (3-2) @ Army (3-4)
TCU's thoroughly decent, probably above-average. Army, not so much.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Boston College (5-1) @ Florida State (4-2)
The Clemson win was gift-wrapped, but BC's win against BYU and loss against NC State look better now. I guess I buy BC moreso now, but still. I have no real evidence to back it up, unless Florida State's prestige counts during this mediocre season, but I've got a feeling...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Texas Tech (4-3) @ Iowa State (3-4)
ISU's another one of those teams that I don't think can stop the Red Raider passing attack. However, ISU will almost definitely put some points up, and said Texas Tech passing attack has more of a tendency to beat itself than in previous years. Plus, you know, TTU lost to Colorado. But still.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
North Dakota State @ Minnesota (2-5)
Yep.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 5
4:00 PM
Rice (2-5) @ Central Florida (2-4)
UCF's actually been pretty abysmal all year. Rice has shown inconsistent flashes, and is coming off a big win against UAB, but there are two reasons I'm picking against them: They're on the road, and they're still Rice.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Colorado State (4-2) @ Wyoming (3-4)
Two pretty good mid-majors. Not much separating them, as CSU's worst loss was to Nevada, while Wyoming's played everyone close, but Colorado State has had the stronger schedule. I'll go with the team with the better track record, though a result either way wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
#13 Oregon (5-1) @ Washington State (4-3)
Oregon seems to kindasortamaybe have kind of a defense. Which spells trouble for Pac 10 teams! Wazzou could be the #4 team in the Pac 10, so an upset isn't out of the question, but I'm not picking it.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
5:05 PM
#15 Boise State (7-0) @ Idaho (4-3)
Idaho may be the surprise team of the WAC. Oh, wait, San Jose State, whoops. God the WAC is weird. Anyway, yeah, Boise's way better than everyone in the conference.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
6:00 PM
Miami of Ohio (1-6) @ Akron (2-4)
Uhhhh yeah Miami of Ohio is sadly pretty bad. Akron has also disappointed so far, but they're at least pretty decent. And at home!
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
Colorado (1-6) @ #16 Oklahoma (4-2)
It probably won't be apparent exactly how much the loss of Peterson will hurt OU until they face their first test. This probably ain't it.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 3
#24 Texas A&M (6-1) @ Oklahoma State (4-2)
The performance of TAMU QB Stephen McGee last week is what finally sold me on the Aggies. If McGee falters, I could easily see OK State pulling off the win. However, OK State may not be able to stop the A&M running game either way, and while I don't think A&M is a top 25-worthy team without a passing game, I think they could still win without it.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (3-3) @ Arizona (3-4)
Two about even teams that will probably hover around .500 at the end of the year. Arizona beat BYU at home, so they get the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-2) @ Houston (4-3)
Two inconsistent teams in the upper tier of C-USA. Houston especially has been slipping lately. Regression to the mean for both Houston and Jordan Palmer's interception total + Houston at home =:
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (3-3) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-5)
The Sun Belt is mostly full of parity, but ULM's pretty awful.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Utah State (1-6) @ Louisiana Tech (1-5)
LA Tech's played 4 teams in my top 25, so it's kind of hard to get a handle on how good (or not good) they are. USU's comparatively rolling from their offensive impotence at the beginning of the year. I'll go with the devil (or disappointing WAC team) I know.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-5) @ UAB (3-4)
Basically, bad @ inconsistent. Inconsistent's bad days <>
7:05 PM
North Texas (2-4) @ Arkansas State (4-2)
ASU or ULL are the definite Sun Belt favorites right now. AK State running game hooray! Usual caveats about Sun Belt talent parity apply.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#19 Georgia Tech (5-1) @ #8 Clemson (6-1)
Calvin Johnson's still a beast, but the team as a whole can be very inconsistent. See: the Maryland game. I trust Clemson to show up much more, and with the Tigers at home, I can't really envision the upset.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Air Force (3-2) @ San Diego State (0-5)
Air Force is as good as anyone in the conference. On the other side...well, patience, SDSU fans, patience.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 3
Hawaii (4-2) @ New Mexico State (2-4)
What's the over-under on yardage here? 1400 combined? Basically, this is going to come down to a game of "My passing attack is better than your passing attack." And, well, Hawaii's is way better.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
Tulsa (5-1) @ Memphis (1-5)
Tulsa's rolled in C-USA, and right now looks like the class of the conference. Memphis is...depressing.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
9:00 PM
#10 LSU (5-2) @ Fresno State (1-5)
Maybe last year. Hahahahaha no not even then. The only question here is if Fresno or Louisiana-Lafayette is the worst team LSU has on their schedule. Just gotta keep it within 42, Bulldogs.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
South Florida (5-2) @ Cincinnati (3-4)
USF QB Matt Grothe has been a one-man team and a pretty big surprise. And he looked mostly fine last week against UNC. Cincinnati is decent, but so boringly so I don't really have much to say about them. They could win, but USF is better.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 2
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