BOWLNANZA 2008: The BCS Championship. Bowl.

#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #3 LSU (11-2)

This is really much too familiar. Unlike Florida last year, I feel LSU legitimately deserves to be here (yes, USC's playing better, but they lost to Stanford and can go away), but on paper, this is OSU and OSU's game easy. There's the perception that the Buckeyes are the result of a weak schedule, but even allowing that (which I don't agree with), they've absolutely dominated that weak schedule like a #1 team should. Their only win that was close was against Michigan State, in a game where OSU outgained the Spartans by 235 yards. They've racked up the offense - outside of the Michigan game, they've cracked 350 yards in all their wins - and absolutely dominated on defense, holding 5 of their 12 opponents under 200 yards. This is not a paper tiger. But that said, there are cracks in the armor - even though OSU held Michigan to only 95 yards, the Buckeyes' 281 yards and 14 points was their worst output of the year. And that was coming off the heels of the Illinois loss, an absolute sore thumb of an anomaly where OSU's elite run defense was gashed for 260 yards. A mobile QB can throw a wrench in Ohio State's machine, and uh oh, LSU has one of those in Ryan Perrilloux! As for the Tigers, they're a bit of an enigma. They started out as an absolute monster going on a five-game tear where they looked like one of the all-time great teams, including a 48-7 whipping of Virginia Tech. But after being punched in the mouth by Tim Tebow's Florida Gators, LSU hasn't looked nearly as good, Louisiana Tech game aside. There's been, obviously, the overtime losses against Kentucky and Arkansas, as well as games against Auburn and Alabama that weren't close statistically, but wound up as LSU wins by 6 and 7 points respectively. But the real headscratcher is their 41-24 win against the Mississippi Rebels, where that stout LSU defense somehow gave up 478 yards to the bad offense of a bad team. As much flak as OSU's gotten for playing in the supposedly weak Big Ten, I think we can agree that most of that conference is better than Ole freakin' Miss. And really, that game in particular among LSU's late stretch makes me say that, if Ohio State's offense hadn't been stumbling down the stretch, the Buckeyes would be the easy pick. If that Buckeye offense had been rolling all year, this would be a no-brainer - Ohio State would get their points against the LSU defense either way, and would likely be able to hold the Tigers to enough where they could win, say, a 28-24ish game. But with the OSU offense faltering a bit, the spectre of that LSU/Virginia Tech game lurks - LSU could absolutely shut down an ineffective offense and has the offensive talent to put things away early and make it ugly late. But Ohio State is easily better than Virginia Tech - the Hokies are near the bottom in terms of offense, and while they have the statistically great defense, offensive talent in the ACC is down to Matt Ryan and the skill position players for Clemson. But it's that little seed of doubt planted in the OSU/Michigan game that makes this interesting - yeah, OSU absolutely shut down that Wolverine offense, but LSU probably won't roll over so easy, and if the LSU defense plays at 100% of their ability, they're easily better than the Michigan D that the Buckeyes didn't look too great against. Still, I'll go with my initial gut feeling - that Ohio State defense is quite excellent, and I mean, come on, Ole Miss?

My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2008: The GMAC Bowl

Bowling Green (8-4) vs. Tulsa (9-4)

YARDS! Who gains the most yards per game in the NCAA? No, not Hawaii or Texas Tech, but the mighty Golden Hurricane of Tulsa, on the arm of QB Paul Smith and on the...something of one of the worst defenses in the nation. BGSU is slightly less extreme, but cut from the same cloth: throw it a lot, and have a porous MACtastic defense. BGSU's a legitimately fine team, and this'll be the type of shootout where either team can win, but Tulsa has the much more impressive resume, being able to outgun BYU and destroy Houston, while Bowling Green has been above-average is a horribly down year for the MAC. Tulsa should be the favorite, but it's about a 55/45 pick 'em, so just sit back and watch the fireworks.

My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2008: The International Bowl

Ball State (7-5) vs. Rutgers (7-5)

If Mike Teel doesn't decide to throw this one away via interception, it could get ugly. Ball State has a high-powered offense, but that's probably been somewhat bolstered by playing MAC and Nebraska defenses, a far cry from Rutgers' top-fifteen unit, #2 against the pass. Expect Ray Rice to run at will. Yawn.

My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2008: The Orange Bowl

#8 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #9 Kansas (11-1)

Virginia Tech's had an interesting little year. They remained highly ranked for most of the year's start, despite getting absolutely annihilated by LSU and not looking all that impressive in quite a few of their wins. Then they just had enough, finishing the regular season by dominating Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia (although they didn't look overly great in the ACC title game against BC). As for Kansas, the conventional wisdom is pretty much spot on - the offense is excellent, the defense is pretty good, and they're still somewhat of an unknown because of a weak schedule. Wait, an elite opportunistic defense and an inconsistent offense facing a team that looks excellent on paper but has lots of questions about their level of competition? Thank God I'm making this pick after watching the Sugar Bowl.

My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2008: The Fiesta Bowl

#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #10 West Virginia (10-2)

Weird note of the day: Oklahoma has the better scoring and yardage offense, while West Virginia takes both categories on defense. And honestly, if it wasn't for WVU's shocking implosion against Pitt, this would be no contest - for 11 games, West Virginia marched down the field mostly at will, regardless of who was across the field. But the question is, can they do it against that Oklahoma defense? And the answer is yes. The Sooners have faced a number of high-powered offenses, and outside of North Texas, haven't really shut down any. Tulsa was kept somewhat in check, as was OK State, but Texas Tech, Missouri, and yes, the almighty Baylor, all broke 400 yards fairly easily. Combine that with an underrated Mountaineer D, and God help me, I'm picking an interim coach to win.

My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2008: New Year's Day

I'll have my schedule down next year, I swear.

OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2

COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3

CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4

GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3

ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3

SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: New Year's Eve

Quick hits, since it's been a long weekend.

THE ARMED FORCES BOWL

Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2

THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL

Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3

THE SUN BOWL

#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3

THE MUSIC CITY BOWL

#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3

THE INSIGHT BOWL

Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2

THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Independence Bowl

Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)

It's 2 AM, and I have my limits. Both these teams are about 6-6 good, both have decent offenses (kinda), and Alabama has the much better defense. And the locational advantage. This will be boring, the Tide will likely win.

My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Alamo Bowl

#25 Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

This'll be quick. Penn State is good at everything, and could be an elite team if Anthony Morelli didn't often decide to be Anthony Morelli. Texas A&M was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year, but decided to eschew the excellent pass/run balance on offense that made them underrated last season for running the ball a lot for lots of yardage but little results, mostly thanks to an absolutely horrible secondary. So the million dollar question: Can Anthony Morelli blow it against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation? My answer: Probably, but the Penn State defense won't let him.

My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Liberty Bowl

Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)

UCF is the unquestioned best team in C-USA, tearing through the conference on the back of stud RB Kevin Smith, who's about to break the single-season rushing record - enjoy it while it lasts, before the surely disappointing senior season hits. As for outside of the conference, who knows. They beat NC State and played Texas close in games that went, statistically, slightly worse than their scores, but turned around and got absolutely annihilated by South Florida. Luckily, Mississippi State seems to fall more in the NC State category among those teams - the Bulldogs had 4 close and/or slightly fluky SEC wins against Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss, and beat the out of conference juggernauts of Tulane, Gardner-Webb, and UAB (and even UAB was close.) On the plus side, their run defense is not horrible and they DID hold Darren McFadden to only 88 yards, and Kentucky may be better than UCF, so the Bulldogs could in fact luck into a win. But I wouldn't count on it.

My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Meineke Car Care Bowl

Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)

WELCOME TO YOUR FUTURE, UCONN. This year's team that has a good season despite all statistical evidence otherwise meets last year's. UConn's not horrible or anything - they're much better than Syracuse - but in the Big East, they're probably the 6th best team in the conference max, maaaaaybe 5th, and I can't definitively put them ahead of everyone except the aforementioned Cuse. As for Wake, they're actually pretty nondescript - every game was close statistically or scorewise, save being completely destroyed by Clemson - they could always win, they could always lose. Statistically, despite being a lower-tier Big East team, UConn actually holds the edge in every yardage category except for run defense, where Wake is an excellent team - this is both a condemnation of the ACC and something that makes the game interesting, since Tyler Lorenzen is very much not a quarterback that can win a game by himself. I went into this thinking I'd pick Wake, thanks to UConn having such a fluke year and the homefield advantage (the game's in Charlotte), but Wake's no great shakes either and UConn actually holds most of the statistical edges. Based on both team's seasons, it'll almost assuredly be a close game, but I'll go with the statistically better team, and hey, a slight bit of bias doesn't hurt.

My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Emerald Bowl

Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)

I'm sure there's intrigue here. Oregon State has the #2 rush defense in the country, and Maryland has some pretty good running backs. There's some, I suppose. This really is a horribly boring game - Maryland has a slight edge in pass defense, but other than that, OSU has the slight edge in everything else, and neither team is all that terribly impressive at anything, except for that aforementioned #2 rush defense. And it's not like either of these teams played all that out of whack compared to its record. This may not be that bad of a game, actually - they're capable of playing pretty close, hopefully in a game of the high-scoring variety, but it's dreadfully devoid of any drama or storyline. Oregon State's the slightly better team, so I'll give them the nod.

My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Texas Bowl

Houston (8-4) vs. TCU (7-5)

Houston's been one of the more underrated teams in the country - outside of a completely shocking annihilation at the hands of Tulsa, the Cougars have held a statistical edge in all of their games, including losses to Oregon and Alabama. On the other side of the coin, TCU's been horribly disappointing - they've been a fine Mountain West team, but for a supposed potential BCS buster, their only impressive game was a complete shutdown of New Mexico two-thirds of the way through the season. Houston has one of the top offenses in the nation, and a balanced one at that, so there's some interest in seeing how they do against a TCU defense that's #16 in scoring and #17 in yardage. But for such high rankings, the Horned Frog D hasn't been all that impressive of late - they gave up 441 yards to San Diego State in the season finale, and 417 to an admittedly much better BYU team. The potential for a TCU win is definitely there - they've underachieved all year based on their talent, and the loss of coach Art Briles may affect Houston - but based on how they've played the last 12 games, this should be a Houston win, and perhaps an easy one at that.

My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Champs Sports Bowl

#23 Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)

What looks like a mismatch may in fact be a neat little game. As I've said many times, BC was their usual 8 or so win-level team, but the ACC was bad enough this year that that got them 10 wins. And MSU's a better team than their record - all of their losses were by a touchdown or less (although they were EXTREMELY lucky to keep it that close against Ohio State), and 2 of them were in overtime. And there are some neat variables that have yet to play themselves out - Michigan State's two-headed running back monster, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, will be facing the nation's #1 run defense, but a vulnerable BC secondary is there for the Spartans to take advantage of - but will they? And that's really the main question, since Matt Ryan should be able to do well against a Michigan State secondary that, while solid, should be able to slow, not stop him. Still, I'll call for a Spartans upset - MSU's due to win a close game, aren't they?, plus they're the team that probably wants to be here.

My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Holiday Bowl

#11 Arizona State (10-2) vs. #17 Texas (9-3)

Quite an intriguing little matchup, even if neither team is all that impressive - Arizona State is an 8-4 level team that caught a few breaks, while Texas has much higher standards as of late, and still has that horrible pass defense. And really, that's the crux of the matchup between the two teams. Texas is probably the better overall team, but the way the teams match up favors Arizona State to the extreme. Both teams have great quarterbacks, but Texas's pass defense is the MUCH worse of the two, and Texas's late-game hero, Jamaal Charles, will be facing a rush defense that finished just outside the top ten. I'll give the Sun Devils the nod here, if only because of the severe favoritism the statistics have for them, but I won't call for it to be much more than a squeaker of a win.

My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Motor City Bowl

Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5)

The second rematch bowl of the year, which is quite odd. Central Michigan's been a very disappointing team (although Western was the most disappointing directional Michigan this season) - while the Chippewas somehow won the MAC, they did so in much less than impressive fashion, and have gotten absolutely smoked outside of the conference. Clemson laid an amazing 70-14 beatdown upon them, and they've lost by 30 or more against Kansas and, yes, the immortal North Dakota State. Oh, and they also got blown out by this Purdue team. And really, while ECU beating Boise shows anything can happen, I don't expect much else than an encore. Purdue's not a great team by any shakes, but they can put up a whole bunch of yardage and points against a suspect defense, and CMU's may be the most suspect of any bowl team, especially those outside of Oklahoma (OK State and Tulsa's are also very bad.) CMU actually has gained more yardage per game, so this may not be a blowout, but expect a shootout, and expect Purdue to win by, say, 10 to 14 points.

My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Hawaii Bowl

Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5)

Boise State hasn't dropped off much from last year - they've been a clear powerhouse in the WAC, Hawaii game aside, and their absolute destruction of New Mexico State remains one of the more impressive performances of the year. I have no problem with ECU, and Chris Johnson is one of the three C-USA backs that consistently put up insane single-game lines, but they're a mediocre team that's honestly lucky to be here - my metrics have them as about a 4 or 5 win team. On the other hand, that shows that they can win even when they probably shouldn't, and if Boise has trouble getting going, either via commute or bad flashbacks to their last game at Aloha Stadium - the Pirates could easily pull off the upset. Or Ian Johnson could run for 5 touchdowns and make this painful to watch.

My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3

BOWLNANZA: The Saturday Bowls

Sorry, but I'm overworked, exhausted, and sick with something, so I'm just going to bang these out quick and hope I'm better tomorrow. Not that tomorrow's matchups are all that deserving of much attention:

THE PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)
USM pretty much played to their record, while Cincy is probably closer to 7-5ish - that offense is excellent, but their defense has been only decent yardage-wise while elite scoring-wise. So there should be some regression to the mean there. Cincy could easily win this in a blowout, but I'll call for the Golden Eagles to upset a slightly overrated team and sending out coach Jeff Bower in style.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 1

THE NEW MEXICO BOWL
Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)
Despite the homefield advantage, I think Nevada could win this one and make it ugly. The records should probably be reversed, as Nevada has an excellent offense and a defense that gave up more points than it statistically should've - plus UNM has a lethargic offense that will only be worse without RB Rodney Ferguson.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3

THE LAS VEGAS BOWL
#20 BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6)
It's actually kind of a shame that BYU, after an excellent year, will have their bowl wasted on a team that may have only been 6-6 in the MWC themselves. Yawn.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4

BOWLNANZA 2007: The New Orleans Bowl

Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5)

Florida Atlantic's the surprise champion of the Sun Belt conference, earning their way here by beating Troy, who had dominated the league all year. The Owls are a bit of a conundrum - they have the upset win over Minnesota, which, even though it's Minnesota, is a Sun Belt team beating a BCS conference team, and FAU hung in there against South Florida in the middle of the season. But when you look at their conference games, outside of their season-opening win against Middle Tennessee State, all their wins weren't really that impressive. On the year statistically, there's not much inspiring there - the offense is pretty good, the defense is below-average. And hey, Miami architect (of the Hurricanes program, not an actual architect) Howard Schnellenberger is their coach - that's neat.

Memphis is even less inspiring. The Tigers actually have a top 25 offense, but a very poor defense, and that 7-5 record about says it all. They're a slightly above-average Conference USA team, better than the UABs, SMUs, and Marshalls of the conference, if not appreciably so most of the time. Martin Hankins is a solid quarterback, completing about 61% for 2939 yards on the year. Exciting stuff.

Troy winning the Sun Belt might've made this game more interesting, although the Trojans would likely project out to be a demonstratably better team than Memphis. As it is, I'm kind of down on FAU - a Sun Belt team really needs to be appreciably better than the rest of the conference, and the Owls aren't that. This could be a fun little shootout, but bank on Memphis being the one to put up more points.

My Pick: Memphis
Confidence (out of 5): 3

BOWLNANZA 2007: The Poinsettia Bowl

Navy (8-4) vs. Utah (8-4)

Navy is what they always are - #1 in rushing offense, this year by over 50 yards per game, and somewhat suspect thanks to a weak schedule and a somewhat non-existent defense. They've been solid, but haven't really had a dominating win - they put up 74 on North Texas, but gave up 62 in the process, the Army game was much more close statistically than the 38-3 final score, and hell, they lost to Delaware. There's also the question of if the loss of coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will affect the team, but the immediate promotion of top assistant Ken Niumatalolo to the head spot should mitigate that somewhat, if not completely.

Utah's a confusing team. I thought of them pretty highly in the preseason, but they looked like one of the worst teams in the nation out of the gate, doing nothing against Oregon State, then looking bad against Air Force, although losing to the Falcons looked much worse then than now. They then proceeded to absolutely stomp UCLA, looking like they'd turned the corner, only to get shut out by UNLV. And then they went on a tear, winning their next seven games before losing to MWC champion BYU. But the thing is, very few of those wins were overly impressive, outside of shellacking of a Wyoming team that had already rolled over and died by that point in the season.

Ehhhh, Navy has a shot. Utah's probably not as impressive as that 8-4 record, and the Utes aren't very good on offense. Of course, to not be good on offense and have an 8-4 record, Utah logically has a top-tier defense statistically, and are very good against the run. Really, as with most Navy bowl games, it comes down to if the Midshipmen have the athletes to hang. And, as flawed as Utah is, I'm not so sure that they do.

My Pick: Utah
Confidence (out of 5): 2