Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
UCF is the unquestioned best team in C-USA, tearing through the conference on the back of stud RB Kevin Smith, who's about to break the single-season rushing record - enjoy it while it lasts, before the surely disappointing senior season hits. As for outside of the conference, who knows. They beat NC State and played Texas close in games that went, statistically, slightly worse than their scores, but turned around and got absolutely annihilated by South Florida. Luckily, Mississippi State seems to fall more in the NC State category among those teams - the Bulldogs had 4 close and/or slightly fluky SEC wins against Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss, and beat the out of conference juggernauts of Tulane, Gardner-Webb, and UAB (and even UAB was close.) On the plus side, their run defense is not horrible and they DID hold Darren McFadden to only 88 yards, and Kentucky may be better than UCF, so the Bulldogs could in fact luck into a win. But I wouldn't count on it.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
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