Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5)
Boise State hasn't dropped off much from last year - they've been a clear powerhouse in the WAC, Hawaii game aside, and their absolute destruction of New Mexico State remains one of the more impressive performances of the year. I have no problem with ECU, and Chris Johnson is one of the three C-USA backs that consistently put up insane single-game lines, but they're a mediocre team that's honestly lucky to be here - my metrics have them as about a 4 or 5 win team. On the other hand, that shows that they can win even when they probably shouldn't, and if Boise has trouble getting going, either via commute or bad flashbacks to their last game at Aloha Stadium - the Pirates could easily pull off the upset. Or Ian Johnson could run for 5 touchdowns and make this painful to watch.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
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