#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #3 LSU (11-2)
This is really much too familiar. Unlike Florida last year, I feel LSU legitimately deserves to be here (yes, USC's playing better, but they lost to Stanford and can go away), but on paper, this is OSU and OSU's game easy. There's the perception that the Buckeyes are the result of a weak schedule, but even allowing that (which I don't agree with), they've absolutely dominated that weak schedule like a #1 team should. Their only win that was close was against Michigan State, in a game where OSU outgained the Spartans by 235 yards. They've racked up the offense - outside of the Michigan game, they've cracked 350 yards in all their wins - and absolutely dominated on defense, holding 5 of their 12 opponents under 200 yards. This is not a paper tiger. But that said, there are cracks in the armor - even though OSU held Michigan to only 95 yards, the Buckeyes' 281 yards and 14 points was their worst output of the year. And that was coming off the heels of the Illinois loss, an absolute sore thumb of an anomaly where OSU's elite run defense was gashed for 260 yards. A mobile QB can throw a wrench in Ohio State's machine, and uh oh, LSU has one of those in Ryan Perrilloux! As for the Tigers, they're a bit of an enigma. They started out as an absolute monster going on a five-game tear where they looked like one of the all-time great teams, including a 48-7 whipping of Virginia Tech. But after being punched in the mouth by Tim Tebow's Florida Gators, LSU hasn't looked nearly as good, Louisiana Tech game aside. There's been, obviously, the overtime losses against Kentucky and Arkansas, as well as games against Auburn and Alabama that weren't close statistically, but wound up as LSU wins by 6 and 7 points respectively. But the real headscratcher is their 41-24 win against the Mississippi Rebels, where that stout LSU defense somehow gave up 478 yards to the bad offense of a bad team. As much flak as OSU's gotten for playing in the supposedly weak Big Ten, I think we can agree that most of that conference is better than Ole freakin' Miss. And really, that game in particular among LSU's late stretch makes me say that, if Ohio State's offense hadn't been stumbling down the stretch, the Buckeyes would be the easy pick. If that Buckeye offense had been rolling all year, this would be a no-brainer - Ohio State would get their points against the LSU defense either way, and would likely be able to hold the Tigers to enough where they could win, say, a 28-24ish game. But with the OSU offense faltering a bit, the spectre of that LSU/Virginia Tech game lurks - LSU could absolutely shut down an ineffective offense and has the offensive talent to put things away early and make it ugly late. But Ohio State is easily better than Virginia Tech - the Hokies are near the bottom in terms of offense, and while they have the statistically great defense, offensive talent in the ACC is down to Matt Ryan and the skill position players for Clemson. But it's that little seed of doubt planted in the OSU/Michigan game that makes this interesting - yeah, OSU absolutely shut down that Wolverine offense, but LSU probably won't roll over so easy, and if the LSU defense plays at 100% of their ability, they're easily better than the Michigan D that the Buckeyes didn't look too great against. Still, I'll go with my initial gut feeling - that Ohio State defense is quite excellent, and I mean, come on, Ole Miss?
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1
Showing posts with label Big Ten. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Ten. Show all posts
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
BOWLNANZA 2008: New Year's Day
I'll have my schedule down next year, I swear.
OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
Monday, December 31, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: New Year's Eve
Quick hits, since it's been a long weekend.
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
Friday, December 28, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Alamo Bowl
#25 Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)
This'll be quick. Penn State is good at everything, and could be an elite team if Anthony Morelli didn't often decide to be Anthony Morelli. Texas A&M was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year, but decided to eschew the excellent pass/run balance on offense that made them underrated last season for running the ball a lot for lots of yardage but little results, mostly thanks to an absolutely horrible secondary. So the million dollar question: Can Anthony Morelli blow it against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation? My answer: Probably, but the Penn State defense won't let him.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
This'll be quick. Penn State is good at everything, and could be an elite team if Anthony Morelli didn't often decide to be Anthony Morelli. Texas A&M was one of my sleeper teams coming into the year, but decided to eschew the excellent pass/run balance on offense that made them underrated last season for running the ball a lot for lots of yardage but little results, mostly thanks to an absolutely horrible secondary. So the million dollar question: Can Anthony Morelli blow it against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation? My answer: Probably, but the Penn State defense won't let him.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Thursday, December 27, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Champs Sports Bowl
#23 Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
What looks like a mismatch may in fact be a neat little game. As I've said many times, BC was their usual 8 or so win-level team, but the ACC was bad enough this year that that got them 10 wins. And MSU's a better team than their record - all of their losses were by a touchdown or less (although they were EXTREMELY lucky to keep it that close against Ohio State), and 2 of them were in overtime. And there are some neat variables that have yet to play themselves out - Michigan State's two-headed running back monster, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, will be facing the nation's #1 run defense, but a vulnerable BC secondary is there for the Spartans to take advantage of - but will they? And that's really the main question, since Matt Ryan should be able to do well against a Michigan State secondary that, while solid, should be able to slow, not stop him. Still, I'll call for a Spartans upset - MSU's due to win a close game, aren't they?, plus they're the team that probably wants to be here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
What looks like a mismatch may in fact be a neat little game. As I've said many times, BC was their usual 8 or so win-level team, but the ACC was bad enough this year that that got them 10 wins. And MSU's a better team than their record - all of their losses were by a touchdown or less (although they were EXTREMELY lucky to keep it that close against Ohio State), and 2 of them were in overtime. And there are some neat variables that have yet to play themselves out - Michigan State's two-headed running back monster, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, will be facing the nation's #1 run defense, but a vulnerable BC secondary is there for the Spartans to take advantage of - but will they? And that's really the main question, since Matt Ryan should be able to do well against a Michigan State secondary that, while solid, should be able to slow, not stop him. Still, I'll call for a Spartans upset - MSU's due to win a close game, aren't they?, plus they're the team that probably wants to be here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: The Motor City Bowl
Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5)
The second rematch bowl of the year, which is quite odd. Central Michigan's been a very disappointing team (although Western was the most disappointing directional Michigan this season) - while the Chippewas somehow won the MAC, they did so in much less than impressive fashion, and have gotten absolutely smoked outside of the conference. Clemson laid an amazing 70-14 beatdown upon them, and they've lost by 30 or more against Kansas and, yes, the immortal North Dakota State. Oh, and they also got blown out by this Purdue team. And really, while ECU beating Boise shows anything can happen, I don't expect much else than an encore. Purdue's not a great team by any shakes, but they can put up a whole bunch of yardage and points against a suspect defense, and CMU's may be the most suspect of any bowl team, especially those outside of Oklahoma (OK State and Tulsa's are also very bad.) CMU actually has gained more yardage per game, so this may not be a blowout, but expect a shootout, and expect Purdue to win by, say, 10 to 14 points.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
The second rematch bowl of the year, which is quite odd. Central Michigan's been a very disappointing team (although Western was the most disappointing directional Michigan this season) - while the Chippewas somehow won the MAC, they did so in much less than impressive fashion, and have gotten absolutely smoked outside of the conference. Clemson laid an amazing 70-14 beatdown upon them, and they've lost by 30 or more against Kansas and, yes, the immortal North Dakota State. Oh, and they also got blown out by this Purdue team. And really, while ECU beating Boise shows anything can happen, I don't expect much else than an encore. Purdue's not a great team by any shakes, but they can put up a whole bunch of yardage and points against a suspect defense, and CMU's may be the most suspect of any bowl team, especially those outside of Oklahoma (OK State and Tulsa's are also very bad.) CMU actually has gained more yardage per game, so this may not be a blowout, but expect a shootout, and expect Purdue to win by, say, 10 to 14 points.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Sunday, December 02, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Regular Season
#1 Ohio State (#2 LW)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)
#2 USC (#5)
#3 LSU (#4)
#4 Oklahoma (#9)
#5 Missouri (#3)
#6 Georgia (#7)
#7 Florida (#8)
#8 Virginia Tech (#6)
#9 Kansas (#11)
#10 West Virginia (#1)
#11 Arizona State (#10)
#12 South Florida (#12)
#13 Hawaii (#16)
#14 Wisconsin (#13)
#15 Illinois (#14)
#16 Virginia (#15)
#17 Texas (#17)
#18 Kentucky (#18)
#19 Michigan (#19)
#20 BYU (#20)
#21 Clemson (#21)
#22 Tennessee (#25)
#23 Boston College (#22)
#24 Arkansas (#23)
#25 Penn State (#24)
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 13
#1 West Virginia (#3 LW)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Missouri (#4)
#4 LSU (#1)
#5 USC (#9)
#6 Virginia Tech (#10)
#7 Georgia (#6)
#8 Florida (#7)
#9 Oklahoma (#11)
#10 Arizona State (#5)
#11 Kansas (#8)
#12 South Florida (#13)
#13 Wisconsin (#14)
#14 Illinois (#15)
#15 Virginia (#17)
#16 Hawaii (--)
#17 Texas (#16)
#18 Kentucky (#19)
#19 Michigan (#20)
#20 Brigham Young (#22)
#21 Clemson (#25)
#22 Boston College (#24)
#23 Arkansas (--)
#24 Penn State (#23)
#25 Tennessee (--)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Missouri (#4)
#4 LSU (#1)
#5 USC (#9)
#6 Virginia Tech (#10)
#7 Georgia (#6)
#8 Florida (#7)
#9 Oklahoma (#11)
#10 Arizona State (#5)
#11 Kansas (#8)
#12 South Florida (#13)
#13 Wisconsin (#14)
#14 Illinois (#15)
#15 Virginia (#17)
#16 Hawaii (--)
#17 Texas (#16)
#18 Kentucky (#19)
#19 Michigan (#20)
#20 Brigham Young (#22)
#21 Clemson (#25)
#22 Boston College (#24)
#23 Arkansas (--)
#24 Penn State (#23)
#25 Tennessee (--)
Sunday, November 18, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 12
#1 LSU (10-1, #1 LW): The best of a very flawed bunch, as LSU's fallen from their undisputed #1 status to look very, very disputed. I mean, come on, Ole Miss? I went back and forth, but I eventually kept LSU on top ahead of...
#2 Ohio State (11-1, #4): ...yes, these guys. I seem to be higher on the Big Ten than, well, just about anyone, but I see OSU's schedule as absolutely fine, and they're the only team here that's absolutely dominated in all of their wins.
#3 West Virginia (9-1, #3): So close to elite status. Their case of fumblitis at a crucial time in the Cincy game worried me, especially in light of their 6-turnover loss to USF earlier this year. Still, this is a team that can beat anyone, especially with how they've shut down the running game.
#4 Missouri (10-1, #5): I still have questions about the defense, as it sort of comes and goes. Still, nobody's been able to stop Chase Daniel, and this is a very good team, and in a year like this, very good gets you #4.
#5 Arizona State (9-1, #7): Suddenly the best team in the Pac 10 by default. They're very good!
#6 Georgia (9-2, #8): Matt Stafford's still somewhat shaky, but with that running game and defense, he can afford to be. Much like Missouri, a very good if not great team, but again, that gets you #6.
#7 Florida (8-3, #10): Tim Tebow is so awesome, that people made Chuck Norris-like exaggerations about him, and he slapped them for not being funny, like, two years ago.
#8 Kansas (11-0, #14): Yeah, I'm buying in. There's nothing here to suggest they're not on the level of, say, Missouri, even if they might not actually win.
#9 USC (8-2, #13): Still lurking.
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2, #16): A team that suddenly decided to match their reputation, they've come through with a string of excellent performances on defense and good enough performances on offense.
#11 Oklahoma (9-2, #6): Told you they were vulnerable! I haven't seen anything on Bradford or Murray missing extended periods of time, so this seems about right for a team with McFadden Syndrome: the best in the country some of the time, and horribly disappointing at others.
#12 Oregon (8-2, #2): A bit of a precipitous drop for the Ducks, but, well, did you see them with Brady Leaf in the game? Oh jesus. If they tailor the schemes to better fit him and it looks good and all, I'll bump them back up accordingly, but I'm very pessimistic at the moment.
#13 South Florida (8-3, #18): Wow. They absolutely annihilated Brian Brohm, so they can shut down pretty much any QB in the nation. Which, of course, means they can beat any team in the nation.
#14 Wisconsin (9-3, #9): Even writing off playing that close to Minnesota - MINNESOTA! - as a one time thing, this is the least I can penalize the Badgers.
#15 Illinois (9-3, #17): God help us all, Juice Williams looks like a, at the very least, decent passing quarterback.
#16 Texas (9-2, #15): Flawed, talented, suspect defense, nothing much to say with them on a bye week.
#17 Virginia (9-2, #20): See above, replace "defense" with offense, more or less.
#18 Boise State (10-1, #23): Kansas-lite, in that they've looked very good in beating absolutely nobody. Plus that Washington loss because somewhat less inexplicable after this week.
#19 Kentucky (7-4, #21): Still the best of the second-tier SEC teams.
#20 Michigan (8-4, #12): I mean, they have the excuse of injury, but still. Putting them here is kind of splitting the difference - I assume Henne and Hart will be near 100% by the bowl game, so I didn't want to drop them too far, but they really don't deserve to stay anywhere close to steady after laying THAT big of an egg.
#21 Cincinnati (9-2, #22): Playing WVU tight legitimized them as an above-average team, even if a bit inflated thanks to all those takeaways.
#22 BYU (8-2, #25): SOLIDLY ABOVE-AVERAGE MID-MAJOR TEAM! Nothing more, nothing less.
#23 Penn State (8-4, #11): Oh, Anthony Morelli. Pardon while I sigh and shake my head. Or is that shake my head and sigh?
#24 Boston College (9-2, --): Yawn. A perfectly fine team nudged back into the top 25 by attrition.
#25 Clemson (8-3, #19): Inconsistent, frustrating, inexplicable at times, still better than Hawaii.
#2 Ohio State (11-1, #4): ...yes, these guys. I seem to be higher on the Big Ten than, well, just about anyone, but I see OSU's schedule as absolutely fine, and they're the only team here that's absolutely dominated in all of their wins.
#3 West Virginia (9-1, #3): So close to elite status. Their case of fumblitis at a crucial time in the Cincy game worried me, especially in light of their 6-turnover loss to USF earlier this year. Still, this is a team that can beat anyone, especially with how they've shut down the running game.
#4 Missouri (10-1, #5): I still have questions about the defense, as it sort of comes and goes. Still, nobody's been able to stop Chase Daniel, and this is a very good team, and in a year like this, very good gets you #4.
#5 Arizona State (9-1, #7): Suddenly the best team in the Pac 10 by default. They're very good!
#6 Georgia (9-2, #8): Matt Stafford's still somewhat shaky, but with that running game and defense, he can afford to be. Much like Missouri, a very good if not great team, but again, that gets you #6.
#7 Florida (8-3, #10): Tim Tebow is so awesome, that people made Chuck Norris-like exaggerations about him, and he slapped them for not being funny, like, two years ago.
#8 Kansas (11-0, #14): Yeah, I'm buying in. There's nothing here to suggest they're not on the level of, say, Missouri, even if they might not actually win.
#9 USC (8-2, #13): Still lurking.
#10 Virginia Tech (9-2, #16): A team that suddenly decided to match their reputation, they've come through with a string of excellent performances on defense and good enough performances on offense.
#11 Oklahoma (9-2, #6): Told you they were vulnerable! I haven't seen anything on Bradford or Murray missing extended periods of time, so this seems about right for a team with McFadden Syndrome: the best in the country some of the time, and horribly disappointing at others.
#12 Oregon (8-2, #2): A bit of a precipitous drop for the Ducks, but, well, did you see them with Brady Leaf in the game? Oh jesus. If they tailor the schemes to better fit him and it looks good and all, I'll bump them back up accordingly, but I'm very pessimistic at the moment.
#13 South Florida (8-3, #18): Wow. They absolutely annihilated Brian Brohm, so they can shut down pretty much any QB in the nation. Which, of course, means they can beat any team in the nation.
#14 Wisconsin (9-3, #9): Even writing off playing that close to Minnesota - MINNESOTA! - as a one time thing, this is the least I can penalize the Badgers.
#15 Illinois (9-3, #17): God help us all, Juice Williams looks like a, at the very least, decent passing quarterback.
#16 Texas (9-2, #15): Flawed, talented, suspect defense, nothing much to say with them on a bye week.
#17 Virginia (9-2, #20): See above, replace "defense" with offense, more or less.
#18 Boise State (10-1, #23): Kansas-lite, in that they've looked very good in beating absolutely nobody. Plus that Washington loss because somewhat less inexplicable after this week.
#19 Kentucky (7-4, #21): Still the best of the second-tier SEC teams.
#20 Michigan (8-4, #12): I mean, they have the excuse of injury, but still. Putting them here is kind of splitting the difference - I assume Henne and Hart will be near 100% by the bowl game, so I didn't want to drop them too far, but they really don't deserve to stay anywhere close to steady after laying THAT big of an egg.
#21 Cincinnati (9-2, #22): Playing WVU tight legitimized them as an above-average team, even if a bit inflated thanks to all those takeaways.
#22 BYU (8-2, #25): SOLIDLY ABOVE-AVERAGE MID-MAJOR TEAM! Nothing more, nothing less.
#23 Penn State (8-4, #11): Oh, Anthony Morelli. Pardon while I sigh and shake my head. Or is that shake my head and sigh?
#24 Boston College (9-2, --): Yawn. A perfectly fine team nudged back into the top 25 by attrition.
#25 Clemson (8-3, #19): Inconsistent, frustrating, inexplicable at times, still better than Hawaii.
Week 12 Recap
Why yes, I am proud of myself for calling the Oregon and Oklahoma upsets. :).
#1 LSU 41, Mississippi 24
On the negative side, Ole Miss outgained LSU 478-415. On the plus side, nobody for Ole Miss was really all that productive - QB Brent Schaeffer only completed 45% of his passes, and also led the team in rushing with only 90 yards. As for LSU, well, Matt Flynn was efficient (68%), and the Tigers went with their usual RB-by-committee approach. I'll knock LSU down a bit, since they really shouldn't be an undisputed #1 with how they've been skating by at points. And good for Ole Miss's offense for showing some signs of life.
LSU: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi: STOCK UP
Arizona 34, #2 Oregon 24
Not all that shocking - heck, I predicted it. And it wasn't really an AWFUL performance by Oregon; they held Arizona to only 56 yards rushing, gained 463 yards of their own, and the Wildcats needed a pick six and a return TD to win it. And Jonathan Stewart had 131 yards rushing. Still, Oregon gets knocked down for the obvious reason - the loss of QB Dennis Dixon for the year. Dixon wasn't quite as elite as his press would make you think, but he was a hell of a lot better than Brady Leaf, who only completed 48% for 163 and 2 picks in relief. Sad to see things take this turn for the Ducks. As for Arizona, I'll keep them steady - I've been bumping them up recently, and this wasn't the type of overwhelming performance that makes me like them any further. They're just a solid team.
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK DOWN
#3 West Virginia 28, #22 Cincinnati 23
Cincy got their 3 turnovers, but gave up 2, so it was essentially a wash, like most of the game. Pat White was a bit of a conundrum here - he had 139 yards on 68% passing, and had 155 and 2 TD on the ground, but he also threw a pick and fumbled it twice. Cincy's Ben Mauk essentially was the entire offense, with 323 and 2 TD on 56% passing, but WVU just ran it and ran it and ran it. And the Mountaineers once again shut down the run. Really a legitimizing game for Mauk and to an extent Cincy than anything else - WVU's still an elite team.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
#4 Ohio State 14, #12 Michigan 3
Just depressing. Michigan did nothing. Less than nothing. Mario Manningham had a bunch of crucial drops. Mike Hart, who was probably the most dependable, consistent back during his career than anyone else in the nation, also probably had the worst game of his career - 18 carries for only 41 yards. And Chad Henne was pretty awful while playing injured too - only 71 yards on 32.4% passing. OSU QB Todd Boeckman was only mediocre, but that didn't matter - RB Chris Wells gashed the Wolverines again, this year for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just a depressing end to see for a Michigan era - the touted seniors go 0-4 against OSU, go out on probably the worst performances of their respective careers, and Lloyd Carr proves all the criticisms about him right and then some. They better win that bowl game.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#5 Missouri 49, Kansas State 32
A pretty even game, actually - the difference for Mizzou was mostly thanks to return TDs off a kickoff and a blocked punt. Still, the KSU defense did little to stop Chase Daniel, who completed 68% for 284 and 4 touchdowns. Of course, Mizzou's own defense was overly great, as KSU's Josh Freeman's line was only slightly inferior - 63%, 255 yards, and a 2/1 ratio. And the Wildcats had the better running game, as James Johnson gained 174 and a TD. Missouri's status reminds me a lot of Oregon; they're obviously one of the top teams in their conference, but any team that's solid or better could easily take them down.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Kansas State: STOCK STEADY
Texas Tech 34, #6 Oklahoma 27
Sam Bradford's injury early was obviously the difference, especially since OU made it so close in the end. Texas Tech, as usual, passed for a bunch of yards, and exploited that vulnerable OU D. Oklahoma wasn't a very elite team, so this upset is pretty unsurprising, but I'm still knocking the Sooners down a bit thanks to injury questions about Bradford and stud RB DeMarco Murray, who was carried off late after slipping and falling during the game's final onside kick.
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
#8 Georgia 24, #21 Kentucky 13
A bit of an odd game, as Georgia only outgained Kentucky by 1 yard, didn't stop Andre' Woodson much at all (57%, 270, 1/1 ratio), and gave up 4 turnovers to Kentucky's 1, but still won fairly easily. The Bulldogs did shut down the running game though, holding UK to only 23 on the ground. Matt Stafford wasn't very good (55%, 100, 2 INT), but, as usual, the running game bailed him out, led by Knowshon Moreno's 134 yards. This game doesn't mean much as far as the perception of either team - they both performed roughly how you'd expect.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK STEADY
#9 Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 34
Well, holy shit. Badgers RB Zach Brown had 250 and 2 yards, but even if QB Tyler Donovan threw only 13 passes, completing less than 50% (6) is pretty horrible against this defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota QB Adam Weber was essentially the entire offense - he had 352 and a 3/2 ratio throwing, and accounting for 87 of the Gophers' 149 rushing yards. Uh...just really inexplicable. Wisconsin gets an obvious, obvious downgrade for allowing what's been such a horrible team to be so competitive.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota: STOCK UP
#10 Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 20
Tebow watch: 25/35 (71.4%), 338 yards, 3/1 ratio, 11 rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Seriously, he's like in NCAA Football 2004 when you'd get the top mobile QB in the nation and just run the entire offense through him. PRESS R2 AND GO!
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida Atlantic: STOCK STEADY
Michigan State 35, #11 Penn State 31
MORELLI'D! 46%, 190 yards, TD. Not quite the obvious implosion he usually had, but still a very bad game. The PSU run D held (147 yards allowed), but MSU QB Brian Hoyer decided to just be absolutely great: 16/21 (76%), 256 yards, and a 4/2 ratio. Well then. Obviously, Penn State gets a knock down and Michigan State gets nudged up with a legitimate QB.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN
#14 Kansas 45, Iowa State 7
Wow. Iowa State's a better team than their record, but the Jayhawks absolutely whipped ISU to the point where the Cyclones matched the perception of them. No particular KU running back did that much, but Todd Reesing completed an insane 81% for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. Just...wow. Kansas is definitely a legitimate upper-tier team, and I actually give them a chance against pretty much anyone.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK STEADY
#16 Virginia Tech 44, Miami 14
A similarly impressive win to that of Kansas. Miami's always gotten by on their running game and defense, and VT both put up 44 points and held Miami running backs to 14 yards. FOURTEEN. Miami QB Kyle Wright was the leading rusher with NINE. Just amazing.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
#17 Illinois 41, Northwestern 22
Illinois ran for 330 yards, shock. While NW's defense is no great shakes, Juice Williams had another very good game passing - 217 yards on 65% passing, if only for a 1/1 ratio. Yep, they're legit.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Northwestern: STOCK STEADY
#18 South Florida 55, Louisville 17
Wow. I thought Louisville's D had turned the corner, but USF's Matt Grothe had 195 yards and a 2/1 ratio on 74% passing, and added 67 and a TD rushing. Oh, and running back Mike Ford added another 141 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm had his worst game in recently memory, if ever, completing only 48.6% for 211 and a 1/3 ratio. Just awful awful numbers, and an amazing, amazing performance by this USF pass defense. Just an absolutely huge statement game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
Boston College 20, #19 Clemson 17
BC's go-ahead TD to a wide open receiver, dropping their own go-ahead TD, just missing the tying FG - a loss just so perfectly...Clemson. Matt Ryan actually completed 66% en route to 315 and a 1/1 ratio, and God help us if that late TD supposedly affirms that he is HEISMANESQUE. As for the Clemson offense, Cullen Harper had a good game, but the running backs had a pretty disappointing night. Just really a perfect capsule of the season and the programs as a whole - BC was perfectly above-average and absolutely nothing else, while Clemson was just frustrating as hell in a loss.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Clemson: STOCK DOWN
#23 Boise State 58, Idaho 14
Seems about right. Just a complete blowout. Yep.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Idaho: STOCK STEADY
Washington 37, #24 California 23
The fuck? Though I guess that happens when you give up 335 rushing yards. Washington RB Louis Ranking had 224 and a TD, and Brandon Johnson added 120 and a TD more. While Cal QB Nate Longshore had an excellent game (71%, 236, 3/1 ratio), I think maybe, just maybe, Cal's run D is a liability.
Washington: STOCK UP
California: STOCK DOWN
#25 BYU 35, Wyoming 10
Wyoming's just absolutely imploding. They had only 9 yards rushing against an offense-based team. BYU's easily the best team in the conference, to the point where this says nothing about them.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Miami of Ohio 7, Akron 0
In my preview, I said this should be entertaining. Even if it kind of was in a trainwreck sort of way, I apologize immensely.
Miami of Ohio: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK DOWN
Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14
This was all due to 4 Tide turnovers, but karma's a bitch, innit? KINSMON LANCASTER! Man, this amuses me to no end. Is Saban fired yet?
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK UP
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31
I have no idea whose passing defense is worse. On the one hand, Arkansas allowed MSU QB Wesley Carroll to have 421 yards on 57% passing, even if he only had a 4/4 ratio, which is...fairly amusing. On the other hand, MSU allowed CASEY DICK, yes CASEY DICK, to have a line of...sit down...14 of 17, 199 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I can now take neither of these teams seriously. Well, not that I really did before.
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi State: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas State 31, North Texas 27
Arkansas State actually had an offense here, as they'd looked horrible in Sun Belt play after playing very well against Texas and Tennessee out of conference. I'll give them a nudge up, although who knows if it's a one-time thing or the beginning of a resurgence.
Arkansas State: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Tulsa 49, Army 39
Tulsa giving up more points and yardage to Army than Houston is...fairly inexplicable. Stock down just for that, and I'll give Army a nudge for apparently having an offense?
Tulsa: STOCK DOWN
Army: STOCK UP
Central Florida 49, SMU 20
Kevin Smith watch: 22 carries, 179 yards, 3 TD, fumble.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Connecticut 30, Syracuse 7
CONNECTICUT OUTGAINS A BIG EAST OPPONENT! While I like Tyler Lorenzen as a perfectly fine caretaker on a running-oriented team, Cuse is so bad they made him look like a legitimate very good QB - 16/24, 213, and a TD.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame 28, Duke 7
UND looked good here, so...good for them? Tom Zbikowski being put in as an option QB late in the game amused me, though.
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Hawaii 28, Nevada 26
Their best win to date. Easily. I'll give them a bit of credit for it, but jeez, they just keep winning close, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK UP
Nevada: STOCK STEADY
Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19
And the Iowa offense cannot, in fact, be that great, even against a MAC defense. Western Michigan finally lived up to their preseason standards, too bad they waited until 3-7 to do so.
Western Michigan: STOCK UP
Iowa: STOCK DOWN
Utah State 35, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State continues emulating Hawaii in every way except for the wins. Pardon me while I shrug. Utah State gets a bump up for winning...somehow.
Utah State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
The yardage was about even, but Wazzou QB Alex Brink's line shows the difference in the game: 21/45 (27%), 314 yards, 6 INT. Well done, Alex Brink. Well done.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Washington State: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 16
Ew. One of those lose-lose games. Ray Rice had 110 and a TD, but he was a shining light in a black hole, as Mike Teel had a horrible 40% completion rate for 113 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Things for Pitt starter Pat Bostick weren't much better before he was pulled, as he had 41% for 77 and a 1/1 ratio. Oh, and Pitt only had 73 yards on the ground. Blech.
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN
Tulane 45, Rice 31
Matt Forte watch: 39 carries, 195 yards, 5 TD. I say he takes this week over Kevin Smith.
Tulane: STOCK STEADY
Rice: STOCK STEADY
#1 LSU 41, Mississippi 24
On the negative side, Ole Miss outgained LSU 478-415. On the plus side, nobody for Ole Miss was really all that productive - QB Brent Schaeffer only completed 45% of his passes, and also led the team in rushing with only 90 yards. As for LSU, well, Matt Flynn was efficient (68%), and the Tigers went with their usual RB-by-committee approach. I'll knock LSU down a bit, since they really shouldn't be an undisputed #1 with how they've been skating by at points. And good for Ole Miss's offense for showing some signs of life.
LSU: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi: STOCK UP
Arizona 34, #2 Oregon 24
Not all that shocking - heck, I predicted it. And it wasn't really an AWFUL performance by Oregon; they held Arizona to only 56 yards rushing, gained 463 yards of their own, and the Wildcats needed a pick six and a return TD to win it. And Jonathan Stewart had 131 yards rushing. Still, Oregon gets knocked down for the obvious reason - the loss of QB Dennis Dixon for the year. Dixon wasn't quite as elite as his press would make you think, but he was a hell of a lot better than Brady Leaf, who only completed 48% for 163 and 2 picks in relief. Sad to see things take this turn for the Ducks. As for Arizona, I'll keep them steady - I've been bumping them up recently, and this wasn't the type of overwhelming performance that makes me like them any further. They're just a solid team.
Arizona: STOCK STEADY
Oregon: STOCK DOWN
#3 West Virginia 28, #22 Cincinnati 23
Cincy got their 3 turnovers, but gave up 2, so it was essentially a wash, like most of the game. Pat White was a bit of a conundrum here - he had 139 yards on 68% passing, and had 155 and 2 TD on the ground, but he also threw a pick and fumbled it twice. Cincy's Ben Mauk essentially was the entire offense, with 323 and 2 TD on 56% passing, but WVU just ran it and ran it and ran it. And the Mountaineers once again shut down the run. Really a legitimizing game for Mauk and to an extent Cincy than anything else - WVU's still an elite team.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
#4 Ohio State 14, #12 Michigan 3
Just depressing. Michigan did nothing. Less than nothing. Mario Manningham had a bunch of crucial drops. Mike Hart, who was probably the most dependable, consistent back during his career than anyone else in the nation, also probably had the worst game of his career - 18 carries for only 41 yards. And Chad Henne was pretty awful while playing injured too - only 71 yards on 32.4% passing. OSU QB Todd Boeckman was only mediocre, but that didn't matter - RB Chris Wells gashed the Wolverines again, this year for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just a depressing end to see for a Michigan era - the touted seniors go 0-4 against OSU, go out on probably the worst performances of their respective careers, and Lloyd Carr proves all the criticisms about him right and then some. They better win that bowl game.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#5 Missouri 49, Kansas State 32
A pretty even game, actually - the difference for Mizzou was mostly thanks to return TDs off a kickoff and a blocked punt. Still, the KSU defense did little to stop Chase Daniel, who completed 68% for 284 and 4 touchdowns. Of course, Mizzou's own defense was overly great, as KSU's Josh Freeman's line was only slightly inferior - 63%, 255 yards, and a 2/1 ratio. And the Wildcats had the better running game, as James Johnson gained 174 and a TD. Missouri's status reminds me a lot of Oregon; they're obviously one of the top teams in their conference, but any team that's solid or better could easily take them down.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Kansas State: STOCK STEADY
Texas Tech 34, #6 Oklahoma 27
Sam Bradford's injury early was obviously the difference, especially since OU made it so close in the end. Texas Tech, as usual, passed for a bunch of yards, and exploited that vulnerable OU D. Oklahoma wasn't a very elite team, so this upset is pretty unsurprising, but I'm still knocking the Sooners down a bit thanks to injury questions about Bradford and stud RB DeMarco Murray, who was carried off late after slipping and falling during the game's final onside kick.
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
#8 Georgia 24, #21 Kentucky 13
A bit of an odd game, as Georgia only outgained Kentucky by 1 yard, didn't stop Andre' Woodson much at all (57%, 270, 1/1 ratio), and gave up 4 turnovers to Kentucky's 1, but still won fairly easily. The Bulldogs did shut down the running game though, holding UK to only 23 on the ground. Matt Stafford wasn't very good (55%, 100, 2 INT), but, as usual, the running game bailed him out, led by Knowshon Moreno's 134 yards. This game doesn't mean much as far as the perception of either team - they both performed roughly how you'd expect.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Kentucky: STOCK STEADY
#9 Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 34
Well, holy shit. Badgers RB Zach Brown had 250 and 2 yards, but even if QB Tyler Donovan threw only 13 passes, completing less than 50% (6) is pretty horrible against this defense. Meanwhile, Minnesota QB Adam Weber was essentially the entire offense - he had 352 and a 3/2 ratio throwing, and accounting for 87 of the Gophers' 149 rushing yards. Uh...just really inexplicable. Wisconsin gets an obvious, obvious downgrade for allowing what's been such a horrible team to be so competitive.
Wisconsin: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota: STOCK UP
#10 Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 20
Tebow watch: 25/35 (71.4%), 338 yards, 3/1 ratio, 11 rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Seriously, he's like in NCAA Football 2004 when you'd get the top mobile QB in the nation and just run the entire offense through him. PRESS R2 AND GO!
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida Atlantic: STOCK STEADY
Michigan State 35, #11 Penn State 31
MORELLI'D! 46%, 190 yards, TD. Not quite the obvious implosion he usually had, but still a very bad game. The PSU run D held (147 yards allowed), but MSU QB Brian Hoyer decided to just be absolutely great: 16/21 (76%), 256 yards, and a 4/2 ratio. Well then. Obviously, Penn State gets a knock down and Michigan State gets nudged up with a legitimate QB.
Michigan State: STOCK UP
Penn State: STOCK DOWN
#14 Kansas 45, Iowa State 7
Wow. Iowa State's a better team than their record, but the Jayhawks absolutely whipped ISU to the point where the Cyclones matched the perception of them. No particular KU running back did that much, but Todd Reesing completed an insane 81% for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. Just...wow. Kansas is definitely a legitimate upper-tier team, and I actually give them a chance against pretty much anyone.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Iowa State: STOCK STEADY
#16 Virginia Tech 44, Miami 14
A similarly impressive win to that of Kansas. Miami's always gotten by on their running game and defense, and VT both put up 44 points and held Miami running backs to 14 yards. FOURTEEN. Miami QB Kyle Wright was the leading rusher with NINE. Just amazing.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
#17 Illinois 41, Northwestern 22
Illinois ran for 330 yards, shock. While NW's defense is no great shakes, Juice Williams had another very good game passing - 217 yards on 65% passing, if only for a 1/1 ratio. Yep, they're legit.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Northwestern: STOCK STEADY
#18 South Florida 55, Louisville 17
Wow. I thought Louisville's D had turned the corner, but USF's Matt Grothe had 195 yards and a 2/1 ratio on 74% passing, and added 67 and a TD rushing. Oh, and running back Mike Ford added another 141 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Brian Brohm had his worst game in recently memory, if ever, completing only 48.6% for 211 and a 1/3 ratio. Just awful awful numbers, and an amazing, amazing performance by this USF pass defense. Just an absolutely huge statement game.
South Florida: STOCK UP
Louisville: STOCK DOWN
Boston College 20, #19 Clemson 17
BC's go-ahead TD to a wide open receiver, dropping their own go-ahead TD, just missing the tying FG - a loss just so perfectly...Clemson. Matt Ryan actually completed 66% en route to 315 and a 1/1 ratio, and God help us if that late TD supposedly affirms that he is HEISMANESQUE. As for the Clemson offense, Cullen Harper had a good game, but the running backs had a pretty disappointing night. Just really a perfect capsule of the season and the programs as a whole - BC was perfectly above-average and absolutely nothing else, while Clemson was just frustrating as hell in a loss.
Boston College: STOCK STEADY
Clemson: STOCK DOWN
#23 Boise State 58, Idaho 14
Seems about right. Just a complete blowout. Yep.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Idaho: STOCK STEADY
Washington 37, #24 California 23
The fuck? Though I guess that happens when you give up 335 rushing yards. Washington RB Louis Ranking had 224 and a TD, and Brandon Johnson added 120 and a TD more. While Cal QB Nate Longshore had an excellent game (71%, 236, 3/1 ratio), I think maybe, just maybe, Cal's run D is a liability.
Washington: STOCK UP
California: STOCK DOWN
#25 BYU 35, Wyoming 10
Wyoming's just absolutely imploding. They had only 9 yards rushing against an offense-based team. BYU's easily the best team in the conference, to the point where this says nothing about them.
BYU: STOCK STEADY
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Miami of Ohio 7, Akron 0
In my preview, I said this should be entertaining. Even if it kind of was in a trainwreck sort of way, I apologize immensely.
Miami of Ohio: STOCK STEADY
Akron: STOCK DOWN
Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14
This was all due to 4 Tide turnovers, but karma's a bitch, innit? KINSMON LANCASTER! Man, this amuses me to no end. Is Saban fired yet?
Louisiana-Monroe: STOCK UP
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31
I have no idea whose passing defense is worse. On the one hand, Arkansas allowed MSU QB Wesley Carroll to have 421 yards on 57% passing, even if he only had a 4/4 ratio, which is...fairly amusing. On the other hand, MSU allowed CASEY DICK, yes CASEY DICK, to have a line of...sit down...14 of 17, 199 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I can now take neither of these teams seriously. Well, not that I really did before.
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi State: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas State 31, North Texas 27
Arkansas State actually had an offense here, as they'd looked horrible in Sun Belt play after playing very well against Texas and Tennessee out of conference. I'll give them a nudge up, although who knows if it's a one-time thing or the beginning of a resurgence.
Arkansas State: STOCK UP
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Tulsa 49, Army 39
Tulsa giving up more points and yardage to Army than Houston is...fairly inexplicable. Stock down just for that, and I'll give Army a nudge for apparently having an offense?
Tulsa: STOCK DOWN
Army: STOCK UP
Central Florida 49, SMU 20
Kevin Smith watch: 22 carries, 179 yards, 3 TD, fumble.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Connecticut 30, Syracuse 7
CONNECTICUT OUTGAINS A BIG EAST OPPONENT! While I like Tyler Lorenzen as a perfectly fine caretaker on a running-oriented team, Cuse is so bad they made him look like a legitimate very good QB - 16/24, 213, and a TD.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame 28, Duke 7
UND looked good here, so...good for them? Tom Zbikowski being put in as an option QB late in the game amused me, though.
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Hawaii 28, Nevada 26
Their best win to date. Easily. I'll give them a bit of credit for it, but jeez, they just keep winning close, don't they?
Hawaii: STOCK UP
Nevada: STOCK STEADY
Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19
And the Iowa offense cannot, in fact, be that great, even against a MAC defense. Western Michigan finally lived up to their preseason standards, too bad they waited until 3-7 to do so.
Western Michigan: STOCK UP
Iowa: STOCK DOWN
Utah State 35, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State continues emulating Hawaii in every way except for the wins. Pardon me while I shrug. Utah State gets a bump up for winning...somehow.
Utah State: STOCK UP
New Mexico State: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
The yardage was about even, but Wazzou QB Alex Brink's line shows the difference in the game: 21/45 (27%), 314 yards, 6 INT. Well done, Alex Brink. Well done.
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Washington State: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 16
Ew. One of those lose-lose games. Ray Rice had 110 and a TD, but he was a shining light in a black hole, as Mike Teel had a horrible 40% completion rate for 113 yards and a 1/2 ratio. Things for Pitt starter Pat Bostick weren't much better before he was pulled, as he had 41% for 77 and a 1/1 ratio. Oh, and Pitt only had 73 yards on the ground. Blech.
Rutgers: STOCK DOWN
Pittsburgh: STOCK DOWN
Tulane 45, Rice 31
Matt Forte watch: 39 carries, 195 yards, 5 TD. I say he takes this week over Kevin Smith.
Tulane: STOCK STEADY
Rice: STOCK STEADY
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 12 Preview: Saturday
Sorry for the delay, things are horribly busy.
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
#4 Ohio State (10-1) @ #12 Michigan (8-3)
Well, this'll be fun. It's almost a folly to try and project this after Ohio State's performance last week, as their run defense collapsed to a degree completely out of line with their season to that point. While the same can be said to an extent about Michigan, theirs was more due to injury - the losses of both Chad Henne and Mike Hart affected the team to a degree previously unseen, and quite a bit of that was due to Wisconsin being a very good team. Of course, Henne and Hart are both in for this game, and they'll obviously be highly motivated with their 0-3 record against Ohio State. I almost hate to pick against Tressel facing Carr, but as long as Henne and Hart stay in the game, I have faith in them, thanks to both ability and determination, to pull this one off.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (5-4) @ #10 Florida (7-3)
Nothing to see here - the only intrigue is what kind of line Tim Tebow could put up, but he should be taken out by the half.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 5
Northwestern (6-5) @ #17 Illinois (8-3)
Northwestern's a dangerous team, so this almost screams "letdown game", and just a general test that Ron Zook is finally over, well, being Ron Zook. While I'm almost expecting an upset, there's no reason to pick against Illinois - Juice Williams seems to have become a good enough passer to be a huge asset when combining that with his running skills, and therefore, there's no reason to pick against the Illini.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-3) @ Army (3-7)
After annihilating Houston, Tulsa's offense seems to have obviously taken, and they now look like the best team in C-USA by far. They should roll here over an Army team that, frankly, is lucky to have 3 wins.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 5
Syracuse (2-8) @ Connecticut (8-2)
As amazingly lucky as UConn's been - the Huskies have outgained a staggering zero teams in Big East play - Syracuse is awful. Awful awful awful. The Orange might have a sliver of a chance were they at home, but even if things go horribly wrong for UConn, Syracuse either won't be able to score enough points to win or keep UConn from doing so.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 3
Maryland (5-5) @ Florida State (6-4)
Ehhhh. Based on last week, Maryland should be the favorite, but I don't really have a reason to recommend the Terps. Plus FSU has a pretty stout run defense, and Maryland pretty much needs the run, so, well...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-7) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)
UNC's a somewhat hard case to figure out - they've outgained enough opponents where there record should be much better, but quarterback TJ Yates usually gives the game away via interceptions - more of a constant than happening to lose a lot of fumbles, which is more or less chance. Yates hasn't really shown much improvement with his TD/INT ratio, so I'll call for the Yellow Jackets to take this one - and since GT will likely lose to Georgia, they've gotta get to 7-5 somehow.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 1
Kent State (3-7) @ Temple (3-7)
Oh, MAC parity, how I hate you. I'll call for Kent State to even out some of their horrible luck during the year.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (4-5) @ Rutgers (6-4)
This could be interesting. Ray Rice is obviously the best player here, and it feels like I (rightfully) say that about every Rutgers game, but Pitt actually has a surprisingly stout run defense. And Pitt has a pretty great RB of their own in LeSean McCoy, who may actually have the better game facing a much weaker Rutgers run D. And frosh Pitt QB Pat Bostick seems to have developed into, at least at the moment, a perfectly fine caretaker. Oh, what the hell, I'll call for the upset.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#5 Missouri (9-1) @ Kansas State (5-5)
Could be a dangerous game, if only because KSU should be motivated after a horrible loss to Nebraska. Of course, the Nebraska loss was such a debacle that there's no reason to believe Mizzou might not put up 70.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#21 Kentucky (7-2) @ #8 Georgia (8-2)
Surprisingly, Kentucky has given up less pass yardage than Georgia on the year (although both are very good). Of course, that's probably thanks to Kentucky being absolutely gashed on the ground. Hey, isn't Georgia a running team?
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (6-4) @ Buffalo (4-6)
BGSU's obviously the better team - the Falcons and Central Michigan are probably the MAC's two best. They should win, but it's in Buffalo in what could be horrible weather, plus MAC parity, yadda yadda yadda.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Idaho (1-9) @ #23 Boise State (9-1)
Boise State is the much better team and will stomp the shit out of Idaho. ANALYSIS!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
#25 BYU (7-2) @ Wyoming (5-5)
Wyoming's just falling apart. Even if they play well here, it'll only mean gaining momentum going into week #12, since BYU's been a buzzsaw in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
San Diego State (4-5) @ Air Force (8-3)
Either team can win, but this is one of those games where the favorite is vulnerable, but I can't really see the underdog being the one to knock them off. Air Force is the better team - not enough to make this definite, but enough. Yep.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Mississippi State (6-4) @ Arkansas (6-4)
Mississippi State's luck has to run out here, right? McFadden'll run for a lot of yards, Felix Jones too probably. Given the way MSU's season has been, Casey Dick may give the Bulldogs the win by throwing 8 interceptions or something, but, well, that's what the Bulldogs need to happen for a win.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 2
Georgia Southern @ Colorado State (1-9)
A win!
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 4
Utah State (0-10) @ New Mexico State (4-7)
NMSU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, but that beats beating one of the worst. And, in this game, NMSU will be beating one of the worst.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 4
Vanderbilt (5-5) @ Tennessee (7-3)
Two teams that are more even than you'd think - Vandy's looked good recently, and Tennessee's had some luck. I'll call for the upset, since the SEC East is pretty asinine, and Vandy has one of the better pass defenses around.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) @ Alabama (6-4)
YAWWWWWN.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-9) @ Notre Dame (1-9)
If you would've asked me 10 days, I probably would've picked Duke - the Blue Devils have an underrated team with an underrated QB in Thaddeus Lewis. But Duke absolutely rolled over and died last week, so I assume the Irish can beat what's probably a defeated team.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Central Florida (7-3) @ SMU (1-9)
SMU's just an absolute lame duck - they don't have the incentive to go for their first win. UCF RB Kevin Smith will likely have another huge day, and even if he doesn't, UCF's winning.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
Tulane (3-7) @ Rice (3-7)
A lot like the UCF game in that Tulane has a running back of their own, Matt Forte, that should have a beast of a line. But, unlike SMU, Rice actually has a chance - their offense seems to be taking, and they're actually being legitimately competitive. Actually, since it's at home, I'll call for the Owls to continue their run.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#1 LSU (9-1) @ Mississippi (3-7)
If Ole Miss scores a touchdown, it'll be kind of disappointing - the Rebels offense has just vanished in I-A play recently, and just look back to LSU's early dominating performances. This is just a non-contest; if Mississippi plays the game of their lives, they'll still lose, say, 23-21.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
#9 Wisconsin (8-3) @ Minnesota (1-10)
This may be even more one-sided than the LSU game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
#11 Penn State (8-3) @ Michigan State (6-5)
Anthony Morelli seems to have gotten his act together, at least enough to let the running game carry the day, so he shouldn't be a factor in winning or losing the game for PSU. Michigan State's a running team as well, and PSU's shown a very strong run defense, so I expect that to carry the Nittany Lions to the win. Of course, I said the same thing about Ohio State last week.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 2
Iowa State (3-8) @ #14 Kansas (10-0)
Iowa State's an underrated team - they could easily be 5-6 or so - so this isn't a gimme or anything. And ISU's defense is better than those of Oklahoma State and those MAC teams. Still, the game's at Lawrence, and Kansas is still the better team, so it'll probably be a Kansas win that is closer than most people will expect.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Miami (5-5) @ #16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Miami's offense could always show up, but I don't expect it here. Virginia Tech actually seems to be living up to their reputation over these past few weeks, so even if they have some offensive struggles on their own, Miami could put up their second goose egg in a row.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
#24 California (6-4) @ Washington (3-7)
U-Dub's Jake Locker is likely out, and considering he was pretty much the offense (which wasn't that great to begin with), well...this'll be ugly.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
Marshall (2-8) @ Houston (6-4)
Houston's complete annihilation at the hands of Tulsa gives this the slightest bit of intrigue. Still, the Cougars are the much much better team here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Purdue (7-4) @ Indiana (6-5)
Indiana's been scuffling bad, and it's sad that it looks like what was initially one of the year's feel good stories may not make it to a thirteenth game. Purdue's offense will likely go nuts, Indiana will keep up to an extent but lose, yep.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-7) @ Iowa (6-5)
Two disappointing teams. Iowa's gotten some lucky wins, so they have the momentum (and shocking bowl-eligibility), while Western's just been awful and lackluster the entire year. Iowa's defense will do well enough to win it for the Hawkeyes; the only intrigue is to see if their offense can even do something against a MAC defense.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
UAB (2-8) @ Memphis (5-5)
Memphis's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 3
Northern Illinois (2-8) @ Navy (6-4)
Navy's offense should do very well here and they're facing a team that can't keep pace. Riveting.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
NC State (5-5) @ Wake Forest (6-4)
Meh. Neither team's been overly impressive - NCSU saw their luck even out over recent games, but that mostly means they started winning games without much underlying it. Wake's coming off being destroyed by Clemson, but they've looked better in other competition, so I'll give them the ACCParitytastic edge at home.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
New Mexico (7-3) @ Utah (7-3)
UNM rebounded somewhat after a destruction by TCU, but playing even with Colorado State doesn't make that rebound 100%. That means they'll probably get crushed here, as Utah's overcome a horrible start to become a complete buzzsaw in recent MWC play.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
Oregon State (6-4) @ Washington State (4-6)
Kind of a pick 'em - Oregon State's a bit better team, but things are really slightly even. I'll just call for the Pac 10 parity-go-round, as Wazzou's the team that should even out some of its bad luck.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-5) @ Baylor (3-8)
Baylor was surprisingly competitive against OU, and that OK State defense is pretty awful, so Baylor actually has a shot at winning a fun little shootout. Actually, what the heck, they have a coach's job to save, and Mike Gundy needs prodding for a meltdown.
My Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (2-8) @ Florida International (0-9)
ULL's looked much better in recent Sun Belt play, FIU's continued to look like the worst team in I-A. Moving on...
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
San Jose State (4-6) @ Louisiana Tech (4-6)
The team with the better offense and the defense is at home, so I'm picking them. Even though it's essentially a pick 'em, and...really? Louisiana Tech?
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Southern Miss (5-5) @ UTEP (4-6)
UTEP's absolutely imploded. Southern Miss is disappointing over the year, but they should be able to beat a crumbling team.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
UNLV (2-8) @ TCU (5-5)
TCU's looked good recently, BYU game aside, but BYU's the best team in the conference. And UNLV might be the worst. Should be fairly one-sided.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#3 West Virginia (8-1) @ #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
West Virginia's obviously the better team, but this should be fascinating - WVU is prone to turnovers, as the USF loss showed, and throughout the year Cincy's been able to force them. Still, the Mountaineers should have no problem moving the ball or shutting down the run as they've done all year, so Cincy's going to need all the turnovers they can get to pull this off. And, again, they just might get them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Boston College (8-2) @ #19 Clemson (8-2)
HERE COMES THE CLEMSON LETDOWN! Just because.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
#6 Oklahoma (9-1) @ Texas Tech (7-4)
OU's due for a second loss - they had the implosion they pulled out at Iowa State, and they've just had sudden smatterings of vulnerability, like the Baylor game. And if Baylor gained as many yards as they did, I expect Texas Tech to similarly light it up. If the OU offense is on, the Sooners probably win the shootout, but if things collapse there as they occasionally have, this could even turn into an easy Tech win. I really just see OU as a team ready to be brought down, and in Lubbock's as good a place as any.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Louisville (5-5) @ #18 South Florida (7-3)
USF's at a point where it's somewhat boring to talk about them - they're established as very good, not amazingly GREAT, and there's just not too much intrigue left about them. Louisville's similar, at least now that their defense seems to have improved to levels where that high-powered offense can actually compete. And really, thanks to the latter combined with USF cooling off, this actually seems like a fairly even game - I'd say USF is slightly better though, and with them at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 11
#1 LSU (9-1, #2 LW)
#2 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#3 West Virginia (8-1, #4)
#4 Ohio State (10-1, #1)
#5 Missouri (9-1, #6)
#6 Oklahoma (9-1, #5)
#7 Arizona State (9-1, #7)
#8 Georgia (8-2, #12)
#9 Wisconsin (8-3, #13)
#10 Florida (7-3, #9)
#11 Penn State (8-3, #11)
#12 Michigan (8-3, #8)
#13 USC (8-2, #10)
#14 Kansas (10-0, #16)
#15 Texas (9-2, #17)
#16 Virginia Tech (8-2, #19)
#17 Illinois (8-2, #23)
#18 South Florida (7-3, #15)
#19 Clemson (8-2, #25)
#20 Virginia (9-2, --)
#21 Kentucky (7-3, #21)
#22 Cincinnati (8-2, --)
#23 Boise State (9-1, --)
#24 California (6-4, #14)
#25 BYU (7-2, --)
NOTES!
OSU losing wasn't the big deal - the lack of run defense was. I was on the fence about having them at #3 or #4, but West Virginia has both an ability to shut down the run and, obviously, that great offense, so I gave the Mountaineers the edge.
OU's (lack of) defensive performance against Baylor made it close between them and Missouri - I'd take the Tigers offense, albeit barely, so I moved them ahead of the Sooners.
Georgia's very good! Vulnerable, but very good, and this season, that's enough for #8.
Kansas moves up as they legitimize themselves further.
USF didn't do anything wrong - VT just had their second impressive win in a row, and Illinois, well, you know.
I still don't trust Clemson, but hey, they're playing well.
Cincinnati may be a bit of a kneejerk giving their two losses are to Louisville and Pitt - still, there's a lack of quality teams with quality wins (Tennessee over Arkansas being a case of "bad beating worse", as an example), and while UConn had been lucky all year, shutting them down so thoroughly impressed me.
I'm still not 100% sold on Boise, since they've had some games in the WAC that should probably be closer than they should, but still, they're very good.
BYU beats out Hawaii for #25 - I went with the team that has a semblance of a defense.
#2 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#3 West Virginia (8-1, #4)
#4 Ohio State (10-1, #1)
#5 Missouri (9-1, #6)
#6 Oklahoma (9-1, #5)
#7 Arizona State (9-1, #7)
#8 Georgia (8-2, #12)
#9 Wisconsin (8-3, #13)
#10 Florida (7-3, #9)
#11 Penn State (8-3, #11)
#12 Michigan (8-3, #8)
#13 USC (8-2, #10)
#14 Kansas (10-0, #16)
#15 Texas (9-2, #17)
#16 Virginia Tech (8-2, #19)
#17 Illinois (8-2, #23)
#18 South Florida (7-3, #15)
#19 Clemson (8-2, #25)
#20 Virginia (9-2, --)
#21 Kentucky (7-3, #21)
#22 Cincinnati (8-2, --)
#23 Boise State (9-1, --)
#24 California (6-4, #14)
#25 BYU (7-2, --)
NOTES!
OSU losing wasn't the big deal - the lack of run defense was. I was on the fence about having them at #3 or #4, but West Virginia has both an ability to shut down the run and, obviously, that great offense, so I gave the Mountaineers the edge.
OU's (lack of) defensive performance against Baylor made it close between them and Missouri - I'd take the Tigers offense, albeit barely, so I moved them ahead of the Sooners.
Georgia's very good! Vulnerable, but very good, and this season, that's enough for #8.
Kansas moves up as they legitimize themselves further.
USF didn't do anything wrong - VT just had their second impressive win in a row, and Illinois, well, you know.
I still don't trust Clemson, but hey, they're playing well.
Cincinnati may be a bit of a kneejerk giving their two losses are to Louisville and Pitt - still, there's a lack of quality teams with quality wins (Tennessee over Arkansas being a case of "bad beating worse", as an example), and while UConn had been lucky all year, shutting them down so thoroughly impressed me.
I'm still not 100% sold on Boise, since they've had some games in the WAC that should probably be closer than they should, but still, they're very good.
BYU beats out Hawaii for #25 - I went with the team that has a semblance of a defense.
Week 11 Recap
#23 Illinois 28, #1 Ohio State 21
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN
#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY
#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP
#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY
#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP
#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY
#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN
#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY
#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY
Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY
Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY
Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY
Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN
Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Well, that's...odd. Really a perfect storm of perceptions being shattered that led to this win here. First, OSU's run defense completely broke down - unlike against Michigan, Illinois was able to run at will, gaining 265 yards on the ground. Secondly, Juice Williams was actually a legitimately fine quarterback throwing the ball, completing 12 of 22 for 141 yards and 4 TD; he wasn't a top-tier QB or anything, but with the efforts on the ground of both himself and his teammates, a day like that is more than passable. And lastly, Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman fell to earth - his peripherals weren't much different than Williams (56.5%, 155 yards), but the results were: 3 INT versus, again, Juice's 4 touchdowns. Really, Illinois's offensive performance was only good, not great, but considering the level of competition, it's pretty amazing. And if Williams can actually throw the ball, and really, an above-average day against that defense shows that he can, Illinois is looking REAL good. As for Ohio State, they take an obvious step down, and that Michigan game just got even more interesting.
Illinois: STOCK UP
Ohio State: STOCK DOWN
#2 LSU 58, Louisiana Tech 10
Dominance. Moving on...
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Louisiana Tech: STOCK STEADY
#4 West Virginia 38, Louisville 31
Pretty even game, actually. The difference was probably one of two things: Brian Brohm's 2 interceptions, or West Virginia holding the Cardinals to only 37 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Really, outside of the extremely low Louisville rushing numbers, the game went as you'd expect. Brohm had 345 yards and a 2/2 ratio, even if the 59% completion rate is lower than you might expect. Meanwhile, shock, West Virginia had a lot of success running the ball. And Pat White had his usual success passing, getting 181 and 2 touchdowns on 16 of 25. West Virginia remains, in my eyes, an underrated elite team, and being competitive here should give Louisville some optimism heading into games against USF and Rutgers.
West Virginia: STOCK STEADY
Louisville: STOCK UP
#5 Oklahoma 52, Baylor 21
Quite the mixed bag. DeMarco Murray had 96 yards and 3 TD on only 13 carries, so that's good. And Sam Bradford had 356 yards and a 3/1 ratio on 80% passing, so that's also good. But the OU defense decided to take a day off or something. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski completed 61% for 286 and a 2/2 ratio, and perhaps more shockingly, Bears RB Brandon Whitaker had 140 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries of his own. I'm gonna knock OU down a notch because...come on? Baylor? Especially the Baylor RUNNING game.
Oklahoma: STOCK DOWN
Baylor: STOCK STEADY
#6 Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26
Pretty close most of the way through scorewise, but statistically pretty much one-sided. A&M had the occassional good drive, but the Mizzou offense pretty much went nuts: Tony Temple had 142 yards and a TD on 21 carries, and Chase Daniel completed 76% for 364 and 3 TD. Why isn't Daniel in the Heisman discussion again? A&M seems to be improving, and the balance on offense is back, but it's too little, too late, both for the season and for Franchione.
Missouri: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK UP
#7 Arizona State 24, UCLA 20
Kind of a boring game. UCLA's offense didn't do much of anything - 178 yards passing and 106 rushing. And UCLA's defense was good enough where Arizona State wasn't able to blow things up or anything - they were good, not great. I suppose it's an encouraging sign for the Bruins that their defense kept it close, but...you know, you gotta score points. Yawn.
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
UCLA: STOCK STEADY
#13 Wisconsin 37, #8 Michigan 21
Another weird Big Ten game, as Michigan decided to allow 233 yards rushing, while Wisconsin, who had gotten gashed by every running game of note, gave up only 48 on the ground. And that was really the key - Michigan was forced to becoming a passing team. And Chad Henne by himself might've been able to win the game, but he was knocked out early, and true freshman Ryan Mallett was forced to carry the team. And while Mallett had some good plays, his overall line was generally bad - 11/36 (30.6%) for 245 yards and a 3/2 ratio. Wisconsin gets an obvious bump up - if they have a run defense, then they have no weakness. As for Michigan, the injuries played an obvious major role, but the loss means I'll still bump the Wolverines down - they'd played at their usual level without Henne and/or Mike Hart so far, but this game obviously showed there is some dropoff.
Wisconsin: STOCK UP
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
#9 Florida 51, South Carolina 31
Please give Tim Tebow the Heisman. 22/32 passing for 302 yards and a 2/1 ratio. That's good enough, but he also led the Gators in rushing with 121 yards and FIVE touchdowns. FIVE. He is THAT percentage of THAT good an offense in THAT conference. As a sophomore. Florida still has no defense, so that remains the same as Blake Mitchell racked up a bunch of yardage through the air, but still, Tebow. Jeez.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
South Carolina: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, #14 California 17
Ugh. Ugly. The game consisted of two running backs and not much else - USC's Chauncey Washington had 220 and a score, while Cal's Justin Forsett had 164 and a touchdown. As for the QBs, the less said the better. Booty had 129 and a TD on 55% passing, which I suppose is fine, and Nate Longshore had 199 and a 1/2 ratio on 45% passing, which is decidedly not fine. Just not a good sign for either team. Ugh.
USC: STOCK DOWN
California: STOCK DOWN
#11 Penn State 31, Temple 0
Yep. More or less as one-sided as the score tells, although Penn State did allow 238 passing yards. Anthony Morelli looked pretty good, which was probably the only intrigue going in.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Temple: STOCK STEADY
#12 Georgia 45, #24 Auburn 20
Just a beatdown. Georgia absolutely shut down the Auburn running game, and Brandon Cox reverted to form, completing only 47% for 134 yards and a terrible 1/4 ratio. Georgia just kept performing their gameplan of offense - the running game, led by Knowshon Moreno (102 yards, 2 TD) and Thomas Brown (80 yards, TD) carried things, while QB Matt Stafford (11/19, 238, 2/1) was a perfectly fine caretaker. Georgia continues looking good, while Auburn takes a step down with Cox sucking.
Georgia: STOCK STEADY
Auburn: STOCK DOWN
#15 South Florida 41, Syracuse 10
Another whipping - Cuse was held to 15 whole yards rushing. Anything less than this would've been a cause for concern for USF.
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Syracuse: STOCK STEADY
#16 Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28
A fun shootout, but Kansas was easily the better team. KU's Todd Reesing had an excellent day, gaining 326 and 3 TD on 68% passing, and Brandon McAnderson added 133 and 2 touchdowns on the ground. OK State's day was like a slightly inferior clone - Zac Robinson had 252 and a 2/1 ratio on 58%, while Dantrell Savage had 106 yards. A good win by Kansas as the Jayhawks continue to legitimize themselves, but Missouri obviously remains the real test.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#17 Texas 59, Texas Tech 43
SHOOTOUT! Graham Harrell was, as usual, the entirety of the TTU offense, going 36 of 48 for 465 yards and 5/1 ratio. But Colt McCoy kept up everywhere but yardage-wise, going 21 of 30 for 270 and a 4/1 ratio. And, of course, Texas is a team that actually calls running plays, and Jamaal Charles had another great game, running for 171 and a TD. Texas Tech is what they always are, and I'll give Texas a bump up since, despite their shaky secondary, that offense is looking very, very good.
Texas: STOCK UP
Texas Tech: STOCK STEADY
Maryland 42, #18 Boston College 35
Not a good game at all for BC. Matt Ryan's peripherals were fine - 59% and 421 yards, but he only had a 3/2 ratio, and the running game didn't really do much. The surprise was Maryland tearing apart what had been a pretty solid BC defense; Terps QB Chris Turner completed 78% for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lance Ball ran for 109 and a score. Maryland's not dead yet, and the Eagles are quickly falling back to the ACC pack.
Maryland: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#19 Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21
Almost definitely VT's best performance of the year. The defense wasn't dominant, but was very good - they held the two FSU QBs under 40% passing, and only allowed 114 yards on the ground. And while the Hokies running backs didn't do much (Branden Ore only had 41 yards and a TD), QB Tyrod Taylor LANCASTERED the Seminoles, with 279 total yards (188 passing, 91 rushing) to Florida State's 265. FSU's one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth in a conference with so much parity, so quite a legitimizing performance for the Hokies in the eyes of skeptics such as myself.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Florida State: STOCK STEADY
Mississippi State 17, #20 Alabama 12
Bama easily could've won this game, as the difference was a 100 yard pick six thrown by John Parker Wilson and returned by Anthony Johnson. Still, a horrible performance by the Alabama offense against an unspectacular MSU defense - Wilson completed only 46% and the Tide only had 159 yards rushing. The Tide's recent great performance seem to have been an aberration, and it's back to looking slightly above mediocre.
Mississippi State: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK DOWN
#21 Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20
Not a very impressive showing at all by the Wildcats, as they got outgained 436-353. Unheralded Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams pretty much matched Andre' Woodson - Adams had 197 and 2 TD on 64.5% passing, while Woodson had 222 and a TD on 61% passing. Plus Vandy was the only team of the two that had much of a running game. Kentucky's really regressed - Vandy's a fine team and all, but playing around even with the Commodores isn't the sign of a top 25 team. I'll also knock Vandy up a notch, since they've been more competitive recently as compared to early on.
Kentucky: STOCK DOWN
Vanderbilt: STOCK UP
Cincinnati 27, #22 Connecticut 3
I thought the dream would come to an end here, but...wow. Not this definitively. The UConn offense did pretty much nothing, though I guess that'll happen when Tyler Lorenzen inexplicably attempts 37 passes. He only completed 18 for the record, for 182 and a pick. I assume Randy Edsall forgot that UConn is, you know, a running team, and that Lorenzen's a fairly mediocre caretaker QB. Cincinnati also mostly passed it, but with much more success - Ben Mauk completed 64% for 276 and 3 TD. And funnily enough, with all the talk about how these are teams that win on turnovers, Lorenzen's pick was the only giveaway of the game. So, yeah, UConn's fallen back to earth - they should still beat Syracuse though, especially at home. Cincy also's looked really good, especially with a performance like this against what is an upper-level defense, regardless or not of UConn's general luck.
Cincinnati: STOCK UP
Connecticut: STOCK DOWN
#25 Clemson 44, Wake Forest 10
Not quite THAT one-sided, but still a definite win by the Tigers. Wake QB Riley Skinner completed 70%, though he only got 170 yards and a pick out of the deal. Meanwhile, Clemson's Cullen Harper was pretty much the dominant player on the Tiger offense - he went 27 of 35 for 366 and 3 touchdowns. CU's getting on a run, so I'll bump them up, but with their streaky nature, part of me feels like they're being set up for a fall.
Clemson: STOCK UP
Wake Forest: STOCK STEADY
Air Force 41, Notre Dame 24
Notre Dame wasn't HORRIBLE - the Irish had 304 yards, and Jimmy Clausen completed 55% for 246 and 3 TD, but, well, that was more or less it. Air Force had no problem running the ball, and Shaun Carney was efficient passing, completing 10 of 16 for 120 and 2 touchdowns. Not really much to say about opinions of the teams - they are who we thought they were, Notre Dame perhaps slightly worse. Still, much like Kansas-Nebraska, what an odd score to see.
Air Force: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK STEADY
Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13
Bad day for both teams. Darren McFadden had 117 yards, but Felix Jones was held to only 3, and the Razorbacks QBs were mostly a parade of suck. As for the Vols, their 155 yards rushing doesn't look so impressive on 44 carries, and Erik Ainge had 2 touchdowns, but only 128 yards and a 45% completion rate. Not terribly inspiring for either side.
Tennessee: STOCK DOWN
Arkansas: STOCK DOWN
Rutgers 41, Army 6
Ray Rice is very good! He had 243 yards and 2 touchdowns here. I thought he was an overrated player last year, but with Mike Hart's injury problems, he's probably the best week-in week-out back of anyone in a major conference.
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Army: STOCK STEADY
Boise State 52, Utah State 0
Damn. Not at all unexpected, but damn. Boise's the clear frontrunner in the WAC, while USU is the clear...backrunner.
Boise State: STOCK STEADY
Utah State: STOCK STEADY
Central Florida 45, UAB 31
This week's crazy C-USA running back line of the week: UCF's Kevin Smith! 41 carries 319 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida: STOCK STEADY
UAB: STOCK STEADY
Georgia Tech 41, Duke 24
It's a shock that Duke got 24 points, as the Blue Devils didn't even crack 150 yards on offense. Much like Virginia Tech did to GT themselves, Georgia Tech absolutely dominated here, and had an honest to God differentiating performance in the ACC. I'll give GT a slightly bump up based on that, but really, it's Duke - who I'm now downgrading because this may have been their worst performance of the season.
Georgia Tech: STOCK UP
Duke: STOCK DOWN
Tulsa 56, Houston 7
Well, that was fairly unexpected. Houston had 5 turnovers, so they should've scored more points, but Tulsa was winning this one either way. Paul Smith wasn't terribly efficient from a completion percentage standpoint (55%), but 313 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 15 completions is pretty good. I'll keep Tulsa constant, but bump Houston down.
Tulsa: STOCK STEADY
Houston: STOCK DOWN
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31
!!!. Huskers QB Joe Ganz: 30 of 41, 509 yards, 7 touchdowns. Well then. Nebraska gets a slight nudge up for showing both a pulse and an ability to hold an opponent under 40 points, while Kansas State should hang their heads in shame.
Nebraska: STOCK UP
Kansas State: STOCK DOWN
Virginia 48, Miami 0
Miami chose to go out on a joke. Just a completely dominating performance by the Virginia defense, forcing five turnovers and holding the Canes offense to under 200 overall yards. Cavs QB Jameel Sewell completing almost 80% en route to 279 and a 1/1 ratio also helped. I'll give UVA a bump up thanks to finally having a dominant win, and I'll knock the Canes down for their rapidly imploding offense, and really, defense.
Virginia: STOCK UP
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Navy 74, North Texas 62
SCORING! Navy had 572 yards rushing, UNT had 478 passing. And, why yes, the Mean Green did have three 100-yard receivers. Insanity. I love it.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
North Texas: STOCK STEADY
Rice 43, SMU 42
TWO legitimate Rice wins. IN A ROW!
Rice: STOCK UP
SMU: STOCK STEADY
Utah 50, Wyoming 0
Damn. As one-sided as the score, so there's not much to say. Wyoming's falling apart pretty quickly, and after their hot start, actually may not make it to 6 wins. Utah's just the opposite - after looking like one of the worst teams in I-A early on, they're probably now the solid #2 team in the Mountain West.
Utah: STOCK UP
Wyoming: STOCK DOWN
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Week 11 Preview: Saturday
12:00 PM
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
#8 Michigan (8-2) @ #13 Wisconsin (7-3)
Some upset potential here. It's somewhat surprising, mostly due to last year's performance, that Michigan's run defense isn't all that great, merely pretty good. In fact, it's not substantially better than Wisconsin's run D, which got absolutely gashed by some feature backs. I'll take UM, since Wisconsin is being wracked with injuries, and again, Wisconsin gets gashed by feature backs.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#11 Penn State (7-3) @ Temple (3-6)
This'll be a nice warm up. In the eleventh game of the year.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 4
#15 South Florida (6-3) @ Syracuse (2-7)
Lemme see here, if Cincinnati needed 8 turnovers to beat USF, Syracuse should need...hold on, lemme get my pen and paper. Okay, carry the one...okay, Syracuse needs 24 turnovers. Oh, wait, at home, sooooo....21. Yeah, not happening.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 5
Wake Forest (6-3) @ #25 Clemson (7-2)
Really, like all Clemson games, this just comes down to which Clemson shows up. And they're due for a letdown, so I'm calling Wake. Such great analysis.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Indiana (6-4) @ Northwestern (5-5)
A pretty intriguing matchup, as both teams are spotty, if never all that horrible. I'd like to call for Northwestern to win, that defense has somewhat porous tendencies - I envision this becoming a shootout like Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Minnesota, and, well, Kellen Lewis is a way better QB than the guys from those teams.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-9) @ Iowa (5-5)
Iowa's most likely the second-worst team in the Big Ten, so if Minnesota wins a conference game, this'll be it. Still, Iowa has some momentum from some lucky wins, and, well, they probably won't need luck here against a horrible, horrible, horrible Minnesota defense. Horrible!
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (5-5) @ Purdue (7-3)
More of a pick based on the teams individually than how they match up - Purdue's been slightly lucky during the year, while MSU is riding a horrible wave of bad luck. The Spartans deserve to make it to at least bowl-eligibility, and they're very likely losing to Penn State, so hey, they get the win here.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (3-6) @ NC State (4-5)
One of these teams has a good defense. Zero of these teams have a good offense. I'll choose accordingly, but this could really go either way.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Texas A&M (6-4) @ #6 Missouri (8-1)
A&M's a dangerous team - their offense has been more balanced lately, even if the results weren't there against Oklahoma. Still, the Aggies D is vulnerable, especially against - eep - the pass, so expect Chase Daniel to have a big day. And, as much as I like the Aggies more than most people, they only had 34 against Baylor and 24 against OK State, so, well...
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
#20 Alabama (6-3) @ Mississippi State (5-4)
Alabama could easily be upset - the running game is spotty, as is QB John Parker Wilson, and while the defense is fine, it's not anywhere near the level where it can win games on its own. The problem is, well, Mississippi State's just not very good.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Arkansas (6-3) @ Tennessee (6-3)
Arkansas's defense is overall decent, so I expect Tennessee to get their points but not break it open. But the Vols have a pretty bad run defense, so, well, watch out. McFadden's boom or bust, but it may not matter - Arkansas will probably win, quite likely thanks to Felix Jones.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Colorado (5-5) @ Iowa State (2-8)
A pick 'em game. Iowa State's been competitive lately, while Colorado got absolutely waxed by Mizzou. I have no idea if CU'll rebound or pull a South Carolina and just fall apart, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt against a team looking to correct its bad luck.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 1
Kansas State (5-4) @ Nebraska (4-6)
NEBRASKA DEFENSE RELATED JOKE HERE!
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Georgia Tech (5-4) @ Duke (1-8)
An upset's possible. I guess. GT really quietly has an awful record in the ACC. I mean, Duke's competitive and all, but I just can't see a win.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
#21 Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-4)
I'm back to being unsure about Kentucky, and I feel the same way about them as I did about Colorado - will they crumble or will they rebound? Really, I have no rationale for this pick, Vandy's a fine team, I guess I'm back on the Kentucky hate wagon, I don't know. I really just feel a UK implosion coming on.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Air Force (7-3) @ Notre Dame (1-8)
Air Force is probably a better team that Navy, but they're more well-rounded, which really doesn't lend well here. Navy's great offense was able to put up points against UND, though of course, the poor defense made it more of a shootout. With Air Force, I don't think they'll do much of anything - the offense isn't good enough to score all that much against, frankly, an underrated Irish D, and I think ND's offense is now passable enough where they can do enough to win this game. So I'll give the Irish the edge, because hey, why not.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Boise State (8-1) @ Utah State (0-9)
Boise's gonna kill 'em. Yeeeeeeep.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Colorado State (1-8) @ New Mexico (6-3)
New Mexico's absolute manhandling at the hands of TCU makes this one interesting. Or, at least it would be if Colorado State hadn't slid horribly in the last few weeks. The Rams have a shot since the MWV's so even, but a New Mexico loss here could be a foreshadowing of disaster.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 3
Houston (6-3) @ Tulsa (6-3)
Could be a fun shootout. SHOULD be a fun shootout. Houston's the best team in C-USA easily, but in a shootout, Tulsa's the other team in the conference that can hang. I'll call for the mild upset.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
Rice (2-7) @ SMU (1-8)
Yeah, SMU's kind of rolled over and died, while Rice is coming off an actual legitimate win. Yes, I'm actually gonna pick 'em!
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#23 Illinois (7-3) @ #1 Ohio State (10-0)
Illinois is a running team. Ohio State is a team that absolutely shuts down, destroys, annihilates the run. Pretty simple to project what'll happen here.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#7 Arizona State (8-1) @ UCLA (5-4)
UCLA has a pretty good defense when they feel like it, so a Bruins win is possible, if not probably since it'd be so inexplicable. Still, even if UCLA is able to shut down the Sun Devils offense to an extent, ASU has a pretty good defense themselves, and UCLA has a much worse offense. Arizona State could win this 52-49 or 21-17, but still, Arizona State's probably winning this.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
#24 Auburn (7-3) @ #12 Georgia (7-2)
Hm. Auburn has a pretty good run D, and the UGA running game has been the reason that I've bought into the Bulldogs recently. Part of me really wants to call for an Auburn win, since they may stop the run game, and really, the SEC becoming a schmozz past LSU seems like the general trend. Still, I'll go with the Bulldogs, if only because I'm only about 85% sold on Brandon Cox, and hey, Georgia can stop the run too.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (7-3) @ #17 Texas (8-2)
Like I've said, Texas is a shaky team, waiting to be knocked off, especially by someone who can exploit that suspect pass defense. Hmmmm, now if only they'd face a team that was excellent at passing the football...
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
Florida State (6-3) @ #19 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Oh who knows. I hate the ACC. Both teams are coming off of their best performances to date - FSU giving BC their first loss, and Virginia Tech absolutely curbstomping Georgia Tech. VT's offensive explosion feels more like a one-time thing than FSU's, so, well, there ya go.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
#22 Connecticut (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2)
It was nice, but I gotta call for it to end here. Cincy's riding just as much of a turnover margin-induced wave of luck as UConn, and there's probably a better team underlying it for the Bearcats. Plus the UConn win streak's come in East Hartford, so I have my doubts as to if they can keep things up in a hostile environment. At this point, a UConn win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sold yet.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-5)
Yeah, Lafayette's pretty bad. MTSU's been shaky in conference play, but, well, shaky beats bad. Probably.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
Wyoming (5-4) @ Utah (6-3)
Wyoming's a solid team, but losing last week to SDSU shows that the Cowboys have tapered off quite a bit. Utah's done just the opposite, looking good after a horrible horrible start, and I expect them to continue both teams' trends.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Arkansas State (4-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-4)
Arkansas State went completely to shit before beating Florida International. Of course, beating FIU means nothing, so I won't count it towards stopping any kind of streak of bad luck.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
Kent State (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (1-8)
Northern Illinois is amazingly awful.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Navy (5-4) @ North Texas (1-7)
Come on, now. North Texas is no Notre Dame. Hell, they're no Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
New Mexico State (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-6)
Should be a WACtastic shootout. Both offenses are capable of winging it, I'll go with the better team with the better QB that has some bad luck to reverse.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
East Carolina (6-4) @ Marshall (1-8)
Man, Marshall's just imploded under Mark Snyder. The Herd aren't quite THIS bad, and ECU's been fairly lucky, but there's still a pretty wide divide between the two teams, especially coming off ECU RB Chris Johnson's insane performance last week.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Memphis (4-5) @ Southern Miss (5-4)
USM's gotta get things going eventually, right? That's my rationale.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Grambling @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)
Grambling's actually undefeated in I-AA play, so the Tigers have a hell of a shot. Still, Monroe's the superior regional Louisiana school, and they've looked pretty good in Sun Belt play. So I'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Troy (6-3) @ Western Kentucky
The other Sun Belt teams, maybe. But Troy's a class above, so here, not so much.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
6:30 PM
Baylor (3-7) @ #5 Oklahoma (8-1)
OU on a bad day beat Iowa State, albeit closely. Iowa State is much better than Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Stanford (3-6) @ Washington State (3-6)
Wazzou's been competitive, even in their losses. Stanford rarely has been, even in their wins. Though the Cardinal's been getting better, they're mostly just approaching a level Wazzou's already at.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ Tulane (2-7)
I'm selling UTEP here, thanks to their losing to Rice. Yes, really! Rice! And as I always say in this space in one form or another, expect a huge game from Tulane RB Matt Forte. HE'S A GOOD ONE.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Virginia (8-2) @ Miami (5-4)
Virginia wins by the fringiest of margins, but after Miami's performance on offense last week, it's hard to endorse them, either. Still, I'll call for Virginia's luck to even out, and Miami's due to instill some false hope. Plus ACC parity and all that. I can only hope QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman has, like, a 5/21, 245 yard, 4 TD day so I can keep calling him "QB/Slot Machine Kirby Freeman."
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Central Florida (6-3) @ UAB (2-7)
I feel like I say this every week, but UAB's not quite as horrible as expected, but they're still not good enough to win this game. Let's put the Kevin Smith over/under watch at...150 yards.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 4
7:45 PM
#9 Florida (6-3) @ South Carolina (6-4)
Well....yeah. I mean, I liked South Carolina before last week happened, and at this point there are only rumors of a Florida running back's existence. So I suppose the Gamecocks could somehow win. But this really looks like a team that's imploding, and it'll probably be a lot of Tebow running and Tebow passing and Tebow making a claim for the Heisman. If doing that against SC will be judged as worth anything, of course.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (4-5) @ #2 LSU (8-1)
Louisiana Tech's been more impressive than they were expected to be this year, so as a result, this may be closer than expected. Meaning, Louisiana Tech may score a touchdown.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 5
#10 USC (7-2) @ #14 California (6-3)
There's really no reason to pick Cal here, actually. USC's got the much better defense, and despite some poor recent performances, the Trojan offense has actually gained more yards per game than the Golden Bears. I'll call for USC to get off the schneid here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#16 Kansas (9-0) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
Kansas's biggest test to date? Should be closer than the Nebraska game, but this is still the type of defense that the Jayhawks can shred. Expect something like 59-49.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2
#18 Boston College (8-1) @ Maryland (4-5)
The paritastic nature of the ACC means an upset wouldn't surprise me. Still, BC is probably still the best team in the ACC (except when Clemson's on), and Maryland might be the worst outside of Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
10:15 PM
Washington (3-6) @ Oregon State (5-4)
Yeah, Washington's just falling apart. Oregon State's a pretty boring team - decent and nothing more - but they have a pretty good RB in Yvenson Bernard, and that should be enough to keep the train of pain rolling for Washington.
My Picl: Oregon State
Confidence: 2
11:00 PM
Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-0)
Ehhhhh. Fresno's been pretty lucky, so as a result they're a bit overrated. I won't call for them to be the team to pull off the "upset", especially at Aloha Stadium, but it's coming. Ohhhhh it's coming.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (3-5) @ UNLV (2-7)
UNLV's had some losses they didn't deserve (hellooooooo, Colorado State), so I say they even things out here at home against the other weak sister of the conference.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 2
Sunday, November 04, 2007
The TFFE Top 25: After Week 10
#1 Ohio State (10-0, #1 LW)
#2 LSU (8-1, #2)
#3 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#4 West Virginia (7-1, #4)
#5 Oklahoma (8-1, #5)
#6 Missouri (8-1, #6)
#7 Arizona State (8-1, #7)
#8 Michigan (8-2, #8)
#9 Florida (6-3, #9)
#10 USC (7-2, #10)
#11 Penn State (7-3, #13)
#12 Georgia (7-2, #19)
#13 Wisconsin (7-3, #12)
#14 California (6-3, #14)
#15 South Florida (6-3, #15)
#16 Kansas (9-0, #21)
#17 Texas (8-2, #17)
#18 Boston College (8-1, #16)
#19 Virginia Tech (7-2, #24)
#20 Alabama (6-3, #18)
#21 Kentucky (6-3, #20)
#22 Connecticut (8-1, #25)
#23 Illinois (7-2, #22)
#24 Auburn (7-3, #23)
#25 Clemson (7-2, --)
NOTES!
Oregon and WVU are very close - Oregon's had the tougher schedule and really didn't do anything to lose their spot, so I kept them ahead.
Ditto OU and Mizzou.
Michigan didn't look that impressive, so I didn't bump them up over ASU, and in fact, 8-10 are packed extremely close together.
I'm buying into the Georgia running game, so, yeah, I'm on the bandwagon.
Yeah, USF's not turning it over eight times again.
Clemson beat out Boise for the last spot. Clemson's easily the more talented team, and I think beats Boise most of the time, but I'm always tenuous with the Tigers - they just have those bouts where they completely implode.
#2 LSU (8-1, #2)
#3 Oregon (8-1, #3)
#4 West Virginia (7-1, #4)
#5 Oklahoma (8-1, #5)
#6 Missouri (8-1, #6)
#7 Arizona State (8-1, #7)
#8 Michigan (8-2, #8)
#9 Florida (6-3, #9)
#10 USC (7-2, #10)
#11 Penn State (7-3, #13)
#12 Georgia (7-2, #19)
#13 Wisconsin (7-3, #12)
#14 California (6-3, #14)
#15 South Florida (6-3, #15)
#16 Kansas (9-0, #21)
#17 Texas (8-2, #17)
#18 Boston College (8-1, #16)
#19 Virginia Tech (7-2, #24)
#20 Alabama (6-3, #18)
#21 Kentucky (6-3, #20)
#22 Connecticut (8-1, #25)
#23 Illinois (7-2, #22)
#24 Auburn (7-3, #23)
#25 Clemson (7-2, --)
NOTES!
Oregon and WVU are very close - Oregon's had the tougher schedule and really didn't do anything to lose their spot, so I kept them ahead.
Ditto OU and Mizzou.
Michigan didn't look that impressive, so I didn't bump them up over ASU, and in fact, 8-10 are packed extremely close together.
I'm buying into the Georgia running game, so, yeah, I'm on the bandwagon.
Yeah, USF's not turning it over eight times again.
Clemson beat out Boise for the last spot. Clemson's easily the more talented team, and I think beats Boise most of the time, but I'm always tenuous with the Tigers - they just have those bouts where they completely implode.
Week 10 Recap
#1 Ohio State 38, #12 Wisconsin 17
This was close through three quarters, but wow did the Buckeyes ever put it away late. Even if P.J. Hill was active for the Badgers, I'm not so sure that they would've run for more than 12 yards, their total here. In contrast, Wisconsin's suspect run D kept up things on that end, giving up 169 yards and 3 TDs to OSU's Chris Wells. An impressive win by the Buckeyes all in all, but there's really not much to say here - OSU just handily beat a pretty good team, and that defense keeps shutting down the run. Which, hoo boy, doesn't bode well for Illinois next week.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Wisconsin: STOCK STEADY
#2 LSU 41, #18 Alabama 34
Despite the close score, this was a pretty one-sided affair for LSU, as Matt Flynn's 3 picks were the only thing that kept the Tide in the game. Alabama was horrible on offense - only 20 yards rushing, and while John Parker Wilson had 234 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio, it was on a pretty awful 14 of 40 passing. I'll give them a mulligan to an extent since this is the LSU defense and all, but they're on notice.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK STEADY
#3 Oregon 35, #7 Arizona State 23
Oregon's somewhat cooled off from their blistering start, which I suppose makes sense since it's coinciding with them beating actual legitimate teams. And really, Arizona State did legitimize themselves in losing, gaining 489 yards, and Rudy Carpenter had quite a good day in defeat, completing 22 of 36 for 379 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. But, yeah, the winners. Jonathan Stewart fell just short of 100 yards (99 and a TD), so Dennis Dixon was a majority of the offense, throwing for 189 and 4 TD, and adding 57 yards on the ground. I'm really torn on Oregon - they're obviously a legitimate top-tier team, but I can't help but feel that, again, they've regressed a bit from their excellent start. But, hey, they're still a more than deserving #3.
Oregon: STOCK STEADY
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
#5 Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 14
Well, at least the TAMU offense remained fairly balanced. Of course, they didn't do much with the ball either way. Sam Bradford was a machine here, completing 70% for 284 and 5 TD. When OU's on, they can beat anyone, but I still have concern in the back of my mind going forward, since they had two games (Colorado and Iowa State) where they just played horribly. As for A&M, allow me to just sigh.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN
#6 Missouri 55, Colorado 10
Wow. Just a complete annihilation, with the Tigers outgaining CU 598-196. Chase Daniel wasn't quite spectacular, but mostly had a field day, completing 59% for 421 and a 5/1 TD/INT. And really, Daniel is a completely overlooked Heisman candidate for reasons beyond me. He's really good! But, anyway, I renounce my skepticism last week about Missouri's defense - the Tigers are easily a better team than CU, but this was a dominating performance.
Missouri: STOCK UP
Colorado: STOCK STEADY
#8 Michigan 28, Michigan State 24
A pretty even game, and my instinct is to say this reflects poorly on Michigan rather than being a reason for hope with MSU (although the Spartans are still a fine team.) Mike Hart remains, probably, the best running back in the nation when he's healthy, as he got 110 yards on just 15 carries here. The concern for me here is that Michigan State ran all over the Wolverines as well. Javon Ringer (15 car, 128 yards) and Jehuu Caulcrick (22 car, 84 yards, 2 TD) are very talented backs and all, but being unable to stop the run really doesn't bode well for Michigan's chances against OSU. I'll knock the Wolverines down a notch, but they're still in that second tier of very good teams.
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Michigan State: STOCK STEADY
#9 Florida 49, Vanderbilt 22
Tim Tebow is not of this world. His passing line was so great (22/27, 281 yards, 3/1 TD/INT) ratio, that I'm almost sad he only had 35 yards rushing. Really, if the Heisman's supposed to be for best player, with the percentage of offense that this man is worth and the level that they're playing at, Tebow's easily the guy.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Vanderbilt: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, Oregon State 3
USC can't just have a statement game that says they're back, can they? On the plus side, they held Oregon State to only 176 yards, a mark that's only seen regarding Stanford in the Pac 10. The bad news is that the offense was pretty mediocre. John David Booty had a fine day, going 19/33 for 157 and 2 TD, but that's more of a caretaker performance, and 100 yards from the rushing game isn't gonna cut it for the Trojans. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in this one, because that kind of defensive performance against any Pac 10 offense (except, again, Stanford) is impressive, and if they keep that up, they can more than struggle on offense and still win out.
USC: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Arkansas 48, #11 South Carolina 34
South Carolina allowed 541 yards rushing, so they're not worth wasting my time talking about this week past that thought. Darren McFadden had 323 yards and a TD, which hopefully means someone's fooled into taking him before the Jets' pick comes up in the draft. McFadden's a lot like Oklahoma - when he's on, he can not just beat, but pretty much destroy anyone and anything. But he has those days, like, again 61 yards against Florida International - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - and I just can't take him all that seriously. At least Colorado and Iowa State are fine teams, so Oklahoma has an excuse. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL? I feel like Jim Mora. PLAYOFFS? Anyway, I'll bump Arkansas up because I'm not an idiot and it's still an impressive performance, but general consensus may overrate McFadden to the level that I overrated South Carolina prior to this game.
Arkansas: STOCK UP
South Carolina: STOCK DOWN
#13 Penn State 26, Purdue 19
Solid game all in all for PSU. Anthony Morelli continues being perfectly fine, completing 63% for 210 and a TD, and the running game more than carried their fair share, gaining 251 yards. The Nittany Lion run defense also held serve, allowing only 68 yards. Not much to say here really - Penn State kept on doing what they've been doing.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Purdue: STOCK STEADY
#14 California 20, Washington State 17
More bad news than good for Cal, since it was a mostly even game, both in scoring and yardage. Still, at least the Bears held Wazzou QB Alex Brink under 50% passing. Cal's still the easy #4 team in the Pac 10, the gap just got a little bit wider between them and #3.
California: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati 38, #15 South Florida 33
Hoo mama. Well, firstly, Matt Grothe had 457 total yards out of USF's 481. And really, Grothe outperforming Cincy by his lonesome shows the luck that Cincinnati needed for this to happen. Even though one could say that Cincy scoring off of a pick six and a punt block were negated by a pick six and return TD from South Florida, USF also turned it over a fairly insane eight times. EIGHT turnovers? What is this, Southern Miss against Rice. Really, this is the kind of fluke occurrence that doesn't really hurt my opinion of the Bulls going forward. Meanwhile, if this is a sign that Cincy's going to reviver their insane positive turnover margin games, then, well, I fear for UConn.
Cincinnati: STOCK STEADY
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida State 27, #16 Boston College 17
Matt Ryan tried his 49% completion percentage magic again, but it wasn't enough in what was an even game yardage-wise. Drew Weatherford played like Matt Ryan on one of his better days, going 29/45 for 354 and 2 TD, and while FSU RB Antone Smith's 63 yards may not seem like much, it matched BC's total output on the ground. I'll knock BC down a bit just because they finally lost, and are no longer an obvious #1 in the ACC, whatever that was worth. The conference remains a crapshoot.
Florida State: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#17 Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
SHOOTOUT! Both QBs completed over 70% of their passes, but with drastically different results - OK State's Zac Robinson had 430 yards and 2 TD, while Colt McCoy only had 282 and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Of course, there's also the running game, where McCoy had 106 yards, 3 more than leading OK State rusher Dantrell Savage. And starting Texas RB Jamaal Charles added 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Texas is no Nebraska or anything, they're flawed on defense, and with McCoy's erratic play, they're just a shaky, shaky team. And OK State's more or less the same thing, except more consistent and at a slightly lower level.
Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#19 Georgia 44, Troy 34
Troy actually outgained UGA here, but had 4 turnovers to the Bulldogs' 3. The Trojans' Omar Hougabook also arguably won the QB battle over Matt Stafford (64%, 310, 2/2 vs. 59%, 217, 2/1), but Troy couldn't match the Georgia running game, as Knowshon Moreno had 196 yards and 3 TD. I'll put both teams up a notch - Moreno seems to be a consistent upper-level back, and Troy hung with the Bulldogs despite that.
Georgia: STOCK UP
Troy: STOCK UP
#21 Kansas 76, Nebraska 39
Weird to see, but absolutely not shocking. If anything, with a score like this, I'm surprised Kansas only had 582 yards. I'll just put KU QB Todd Reesing's line here for posterity: 30/41, 354 yards, 6 TD. The Huskers D just keeps reaching new levels of ineptitude, and it's almost a shame that this keeps Kansas as a relative unknown. An impressive one, but still.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
#22 Illinois 44, Minnesota 17
Normally I'd make a remark about Minnesota allowing 448 yards rushing, but between South Carolina and Nebraska, I'll just sigh, perhaps chuckle, and move on.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN
#23 Auburn 35, Tennessee Tech 3
Only 115 yards rushing for Auburn is probably a bad sign, but hey, Brandon Cox completed over 80%. Good for him!
Auburn: STOCK STEADY
#24 Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Just a straight up whoopin', as GT's quietly been eliminated from ACC Coastal contention. Sean Glennon actually completed 69%, and the Hokies defense just pretty much neutralized the Yellow Jackets. A pretty impressive win for the Hokies, one that they very much needed.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
#25 Connecticut 38, Rutgers 19
UConn got lucky here, though to less of an extent than they have in recent upset wins. Tyler Lorenzen pulled a Matt Ryan Special, completing only 48% but getting 2 TDs in a Huskies win. But the real star of the show was ex-starting RB Donald Brown, who had 154 yards and a TD when forced into action. Brown's resurgence plus, if he's healthy, Andre Dixon, gives the Huskies a duo not seen since...well, Caulley and Brockington two years ago. Rutgers remains a good team, the intrigue it to see if UConn can keep up their Wake Forest act going on the road, as they head to Cincinnati next week.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Arizona 34, UCLA 27
Ugh, and it really shouldn't have been this close. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama didn't have a high-percentage day (58%), but with 341 yards and 3 TD, nobody's complaining. UCLA's slowly going from funny to just kind of sad, like a choking cat.
Arizona: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
East Carolina 56, Memphis 40
CRAZY MID-MAJOR RUNNING BACK OF THE WEEK: ECU's Chris Johnson, who had 301 yards and 4 touchdowns on 20 carries. And hey, Memphis QB Martin Hankins had 416 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 57% passing. I'll give ECU a bump up since they seem to have a legitimate weapon.
East Carolina: STOCK UP
Memphis: STOCK STEADY
NC State 19, Miami 16 (OT)
Canes Slot Machine/QB Kirby Freeman had the most amazing line in recent memory: 1/14, 84 yards, 1/3 TD/INT. I guess he hit three 7's one time and got an 84 yard TD out of it, while the rest were like "Cherry....ANOTHER CHERRY!....awwww, NC State defender." And yet it still only went to OT.
NC State: STOCK DOWN
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi 38, Northwestern State 31
Ole Miss got outplayed by a I-AA team, and not a particularly good one. After a surprisingly good start, statistically if not record-wise, it looks like the Rebels have given up on winning and are focusing on beating out Syracuse for the title of "worst BCS conference team."
Mississippi: STOCK DOWN
Navy 46, Notre Dame 44 (3 OT)
Charlie Weis is an idiot for not going for the game-winning field goal, that jumping sack by that one Navy defender was AWESOME, and Notre Dame may go 1-11. A fun time.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
TCU 37, New Mexico 0
An insanely dominating performance, as the TCU defense held one of the MWC's better teams to only 119 yards. Just...wow, the best performance in any conference game by a Mountain West team this year. If TCU can follow this up, this could be an immensely entertaining path of rage.
TCU: STOCK UP
New Mexico: STOCK DOWN
Rice 56, UTEP 48
A LEGITIMATE WIN FOR RICE!
Rice: STOCK UP
UTEP: STOCK DOWN
This was close through three quarters, but wow did the Buckeyes ever put it away late. Even if P.J. Hill was active for the Badgers, I'm not so sure that they would've run for more than 12 yards, their total here. In contrast, Wisconsin's suspect run D kept up things on that end, giving up 169 yards and 3 TDs to OSU's Chris Wells. An impressive win by the Buckeyes all in all, but there's really not much to say here - OSU just handily beat a pretty good team, and that defense keeps shutting down the run. Which, hoo boy, doesn't bode well for Illinois next week.
Ohio State: STOCK STEADY
Wisconsin: STOCK STEADY
#2 LSU 41, #18 Alabama 34
Despite the close score, this was a pretty one-sided affair for LSU, as Matt Flynn's 3 picks were the only thing that kept the Tide in the game. Alabama was horrible on offense - only 20 yards rushing, and while John Parker Wilson had 234 yards and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio, it was on a pretty awful 14 of 40 passing. I'll give them a mulligan to an extent since this is the LSU defense and all, but they're on notice.
LSU: STOCK STEADY
Alabama: STOCK STEADY
#3 Oregon 35, #7 Arizona State 23
Oregon's somewhat cooled off from their blistering start, which I suppose makes sense since it's coinciding with them beating actual legitimate teams. And really, Arizona State did legitimize themselves in losing, gaining 489 yards, and Rudy Carpenter had quite a good day in defeat, completing 22 of 36 for 379 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. But, yeah, the winners. Jonathan Stewart fell just short of 100 yards (99 and a TD), so Dennis Dixon was a majority of the offense, throwing for 189 and 4 TD, and adding 57 yards on the ground. I'm really torn on Oregon - they're obviously a legitimate top-tier team, but I can't help but feel that, again, they've regressed a bit from their excellent start. But, hey, they're still a more than deserving #3.
Oregon: STOCK STEADY
Arizona State: STOCK STEADY
#5 Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 14
Well, at least the TAMU offense remained fairly balanced. Of course, they didn't do much with the ball either way. Sam Bradford was a machine here, completing 70% for 284 and 5 TD. When OU's on, they can beat anyone, but I still have concern in the back of my mind going forward, since they had two games (Colorado and Iowa State) where they just played horribly. As for A&M, allow me to just sigh.
Oklahoma: STOCK STEADY
Texas A&M: STOCK DOWN
#6 Missouri 55, Colorado 10
Wow. Just a complete annihilation, with the Tigers outgaining CU 598-196. Chase Daniel wasn't quite spectacular, but mostly had a field day, completing 59% for 421 and a 5/1 TD/INT. And really, Daniel is a completely overlooked Heisman candidate for reasons beyond me. He's really good! But, anyway, I renounce my skepticism last week about Missouri's defense - the Tigers are easily a better team than CU, but this was a dominating performance.
Missouri: STOCK UP
Colorado: STOCK STEADY
#8 Michigan 28, Michigan State 24
A pretty even game, and my instinct is to say this reflects poorly on Michigan rather than being a reason for hope with MSU (although the Spartans are still a fine team.) Mike Hart remains, probably, the best running back in the nation when he's healthy, as he got 110 yards on just 15 carries here. The concern for me here is that Michigan State ran all over the Wolverines as well. Javon Ringer (15 car, 128 yards) and Jehuu Caulcrick (22 car, 84 yards, 2 TD) are very talented backs and all, but being unable to stop the run really doesn't bode well for Michigan's chances against OSU. I'll knock the Wolverines down a notch, but they're still in that second tier of very good teams.
Michigan: STOCK DOWN
Michigan State: STOCK STEADY
#9 Florida 49, Vanderbilt 22
Tim Tebow is not of this world. His passing line was so great (22/27, 281 yards, 3/1 TD/INT) ratio, that I'm almost sad he only had 35 yards rushing. Really, if the Heisman's supposed to be for best player, with the percentage of offense that this man is worth and the level that they're playing at, Tebow's easily the guy.
Florida: STOCK STEADY
Vanderbilt: STOCK STEADY
#10 USC 24, Oregon State 3
USC can't just have a statement game that says they're back, can they? On the plus side, they held Oregon State to only 176 yards, a mark that's only seen regarding Stanford in the Pac 10. The bad news is that the offense was pretty mediocre. John David Booty had a fine day, going 19/33 for 157 and 2 TD, but that's more of a caretaker performance, and 100 yards from the rushing game isn't gonna cut it for the Trojans. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in this one, because that kind of defensive performance against any Pac 10 offense (except, again, Stanford) is impressive, and if they keep that up, they can more than struggle on offense and still win out.
USC: STOCK STEADY
Oregon State: STOCK STEADY
Arkansas 48, #11 South Carolina 34
South Carolina allowed 541 yards rushing, so they're not worth wasting my time talking about this week past that thought. Darren McFadden had 323 yards and a TD, which hopefully means someone's fooled into taking him before the Jets' pick comes up in the draft. McFadden's a lot like Oklahoma - when he's on, he can not just beat, but pretty much destroy anyone and anything. But he has those days, like, again 61 yards against Florida International - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - and I just can't take him all that seriously. At least Colorado and Iowa State are fine teams, so Oklahoma has an excuse. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL? I feel like Jim Mora. PLAYOFFS? Anyway, I'll bump Arkansas up because I'm not an idiot and it's still an impressive performance, but general consensus may overrate McFadden to the level that I overrated South Carolina prior to this game.
Arkansas: STOCK UP
South Carolina: STOCK DOWN
#13 Penn State 26, Purdue 19
Solid game all in all for PSU. Anthony Morelli continues being perfectly fine, completing 63% for 210 and a TD, and the running game more than carried their fair share, gaining 251 yards. The Nittany Lion run defense also held serve, allowing only 68 yards. Not much to say here really - Penn State kept on doing what they've been doing.
Penn State: STOCK STEADY
Purdue: STOCK STEADY
#14 California 20, Washington State 17
More bad news than good for Cal, since it was a mostly even game, both in scoring and yardage. Still, at least the Bears held Wazzou QB Alex Brink under 50% passing. Cal's still the easy #4 team in the Pac 10, the gap just got a little bit wider between them and #3.
California: STOCK DOWN
Washington State: STOCK STEADY
Cincinnati 38, #15 South Florida 33
Hoo mama. Well, firstly, Matt Grothe had 457 total yards out of USF's 481. And really, Grothe outperforming Cincy by his lonesome shows the luck that Cincinnati needed for this to happen. Even though one could say that Cincy scoring off of a pick six and a punt block were negated by a pick six and return TD from South Florida, USF also turned it over a fairly insane eight times. EIGHT turnovers? What is this, Southern Miss against Rice. Really, this is the kind of fluke occurrence that doesn't really hurt my opinion of the Bulls going forward. Meanwhile, if this is a sign that Cincy's going to reviver their insane positive turnover margin games, then, well, I fear for UConn.
Cincinnati: STOCK STEADY
South Florida: STOCK STEADY
Florida State 27, #16 Boston College 17
Matt Ryan tried his 49% completion percentage magic again, but it wasn't enough in what was an even game yardage-wise. Drew Weatherford played like Matt Ryan on one of his better days, going 29/45 for 354 and 2 TD, and while FSU RB Antone Smith's 63 yards may not seem like much, it matched BC's total output on the ground. I'll knock BC down a bit just because they finally lost, and are no longer an obvious #1 in the ACC, whatever that was worth. The conference remains a crapshoot.
Florida State: STOCK UP
Boston College: STOCK DOWN
#17 Texas 38, Oklahoma State 35
SHOOTOUT! Both QBs completed over 70% of their passes, but with drastically different results - OK State's Zac Robinson had 430 yards and 2 TD, while Colt McCoy only had 282 and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Of course, there's also the running game, where McCoy had 106 yards, 3 more than leading OK State rusher Dantrell Savage. And starting Texas RB Jamaal Charles added 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Texas is no Nebraska or anything, they're flawed on defense, and with McCoy's erratic play, they're just a shaky, shaky team. And OK State's more or less the same thing, except more consistent and at a slightly lower level.
Texas: STOCK STEADY
Oklahoma State: STOCK STEADY
#19 Georgia 44, Troy 34
Troy actually outgained UGA here, but had 4 turnovers to the Bulldogs' 3. The Trojans' Omar Hougabook also arguably won the QB battle over Matt Stafford (64%, 310, 2/2 vs. 59%, 217, 2/1), but Troy couldn't match the Georgia running game, as Knowshon Moreno had 196 yards and 3 TD. I'll put both teams up a notch - Moreno seems to be a consistent upper-level back, and Troy hung with the Bulldogs despite that.
Georgia: STOCK UP
Troy: STOCK UP
#21 Kansas 76, Nebraska 39
Weird to see, but absolutely not shocking. If anything, with a score like this, I'm surprised Kansas only had 582 yards. I'll just put KU QB Todd Reesing's line here for posterity: 30/41, 354 yards, 6 TD. The Huskers D just keeps reaching new levels of ineptitude, and it's almost a shame that this keeps Kansas as a relative unknown. An impressive one, but still.
Kansas: STOCK UP
Nebraska: STOCK DOWN
#22 Illinois 44, Minnesota 17
Normally I'd make a remark about Minnesota allowing 448 yards rushing, but between South Carolina and Nebraska, I'll just sigh, perhaps chuckle, and move on.
Illinois: STOCK STEADY
Minnesota: STOCK DOWN
#23 Auburn 35, Tennessee Tech 3
Only 115 yards rushing for Auburn is probably a bad sign, but hey, Brandon Cox completed over 80%. Good for him!
Auburn: STOCK STEADY
#24 Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 3
Just a straight up whoopin', as GT's quietly been eliminated from ACC Coastal contention. Sean Glennon actually completed 69%, and the Hokies defense just pretty much neutralized the Yellow Jackets. A pretty impressive win for the Hokies, one that they very much needed.
Virginia Tech: STOCK UP
Georgia Tech: STOCK DOWN
#25 Connecticut 38, Rutgers 19
UConn got lucky here, though to less of an extent than they have in recent upset wins. Tyler Lorenzen pulled a Matt Ryan Special, completing only 48% but getting 2 TDs in a Huskies win. But the real star of the show was ex-starting RB Donald Brown, who had 154 yards and a TD when forced into action. Brown's resurgence plus, if he's healthy, Andre Dixon, gives the Huskies a duo not seen since...well, Caulley and Brockington two years ago. Rutgers remains a good team, the intrigue it to see if UConn can keep up their Wake Forest act going on the road, as they head to Cincinnati next week.
Connecticut: STOCK STEADY
Rutgers: STOCK STEADY
Arizona 34, UCLA 27
Ugh, and it really shouldn't have been this close. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama didn't have a high-percentage day (58%), but with 341 yards and 3 TD, nobody's complaining. UCLA's slowly going from funny to just kind of sad, like a choking cat.
Arizona: STOCK UP
UCLA: STOCK DOWN
East Carolina 56, Memphis 40
CRAZY MID-MAJOR RUNNING BACK OF THE WEEK: ECU's Chris Johnson, who had 301 yards and 4 touchdowns on 20 carries. And hey, Memphis QB Martin Hankins had 416 yards and a 4/2 ratio on 57% passing. I'll give ECU a bump up since they seem to have a legitimate weapon.
East Carolina: STOCK UP
Memphis: STOCK STEADY
NC State 19, Miami 16 (OT)
Canes Slot Machine/QB Kirby Freeman had the most amazing line in recent memory: 1/14, 84 yards, 1/3 TD/INT. I guess he hit three 7's one time and got an 84 yard TD out of it, while the rest were like "Cherry....ANOTHER CHERRY!....awwww, NC State defender." And yet it still only went to OT.
NC State: STOCK DOWN
Miami: STOCK DOWN
Mississippi 38, Northwestern State 31
Ole Miss got outplayed by a I-AA team, and not a particularly good one. After a surprisingly good start, statistically if not record-wise, it looks like the Rebels have given up on winning and are focusing on beating out Syracuse for the title of "worst BCS conference team."
Mississippi: STOCK DOWN
Navy 46, Notre Dame 44 (3 OT)
Charlie Weis is an idiot for not going for the game-winning field goal, that jumping sack by that one Navy defender was AWESOME, and Notre Dame may go 1-11. A fun time.
Navy: STOCK STEADY
Notre Dame: STOCK DOWN
TCU 37, New Mexico 0
An insanely dominating performance, as the TCU defense held one of the MWC's better teams to only 119 yards. Just...wow, the best performance in any conference game by a Mountain West team this year. If TCU can follow this up, this could be an immensely entertaining path of rage.
TCU: STOCK UP
New Mexico: STOCK DOWN
Rice 56, UTEP 48
A LEGITIMATE WIN FOR RICE!
Rice: STOCK UP
UTEP: STOCK DOWN
Friday, November 02, 2007
Week 10 Preview: Saturday and Sunday
Okay, I think I made it through this week. I seem to be in one piece, yes.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#12 Wisconsin (7-2) @ #1 Ohio State (9-0)
An upset here is perfectly possible. Penn State was able to run the ball to extent, in that they weren't held to 30 yards, so the Badgers could at least do something on the ground, and, best case scenario, somehow take up the clock en route to a 7-3 victory or some such. I'd have more confidence in the Badgers if this were earlier in the year - QB Tyler Donovan started off the year looking very good, but as time's gone on, he seems to be more at caretaker status. Plus there's the other side of the equation - the Badgers have pretty good pass defense numbers, but that may just be a result of them being gashed by a number of running backs over the year. If Donovan plays his best game to date, the Badgers have a chance, but I have little faith in their ability to stop the OSU offense enough to win.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Purdue (7-2) @ #13 Penn State (6-3)
A bit of a barometer game for if Purdue has any sort of legitimacy this year, even if I'm not sure what it matters either way. I mean, they're not as good as OSU and Michigan, and the scores have shown that, but a win here would make them a viable #3 at least. But, that said, I don't think that happens here - that Penn State defense is really good, and while Purdue may not lose as lopsidedly as those other two games, this should be an easy Nittany Lion win. Unless, of course, Anthony Morelli decides to implode, which is always a possibility.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
Ball State (5-4) @ Indiana (5-4)
Indiana's been scuffling, and Ball State's a very good MAC team, but still. I think a MAC defense is just the thing to get the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility, since while Ball State may put up their share of points, I don't expect them to keep pace. That said, the Cardinals are dangerous, and if Indiana loses, or worse, doesn't show up here, they could very well just implode the rest of the year out.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Clemson (6-2) @ Duke (1-7)
Clemson's the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the nation. Again. Even if they've looked better lately. Which means they'll probably be horrible! Oy. But, anyway, Duke's essentially a bye for a team this talented, no matter which Clemson shows up.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Iowa (4-5) @ Northwestern (5-4)
Iowa's really just not very good. Or good. At all. Their MSU win was pretty inexplicable (outside of facing Michigan State in October), and beating Illinois 10-6 is more indicative of the level of play a team needs to play at to lose to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern playing that poorly is absolutely possible, but the Wildcats in general seem to be a decent team, and here, that's good enough.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 2
NC State (3-5) @ Miami (5-3)
Miami's offense may or may not show up, but I really can't imagine NC State's offense doing much against that D. Though, then again, UNC did. I think Miami's underrated (which is somewhat balanced out by the ACC being overrated), and, again, that defense is extremely talented, so if everyone shows up for the Canes, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (2-6) @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
A lot like the Clemson game - Pitt looked like a new team with LaRod Stephens-Howling, and that seemed to last all of a week. But it doesn't matter which Pitt shows up, since Syracuse is just that bad. Much worse than Duke, actually.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 4
Wake Forest (6-2) @ Virginia (7-2)
The ACC is just horribly parityriffic. Both teams have shiny records and all, but Wake's win over UNC last week, and their season-opening loss to BC, are the only two games among either of these teams where the winner did so decisively. And really, neither team has a big win that shows they can step it up - Wake beating FSU doesn't mean all that much anymore, and UConn, for as much as I love them, are a good not great team that's gotten a number of breaks. I was much more bullish on the Cavs in the preseason, and they're at home, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (5-3) @ #9 Florida (5-3)
Vandy's defense is a surprisingly excellent from a statistical standpoint, so I suppose it's possible they could somehow stop Tebow enough to pull off the upset. Possible, but not very likely.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Nebraska (4-5) @ #21 Kansas (8-0)
I doubt Joe Ganz is the sparkplug the Huskers needed, so if this becomes a blowout, that'll be one weird final score to see. And it just might be, since I'm not especially sure Nebraska's defense is much better than the MAC ones KU torched early on. I guess Nebraska could still get an upset by putting up a lot of points, but there's the problem that Kansas could put up 70.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-3) @ Iowa State (1-8)
An upset here wouldn't shock me at all, since ISU's bad luck could stand to even out. The Cyclones aren't especially great or anything, or probably even that good, but they're much more competitive than that record shows, and given how this season's gone for everyone, probably deserved a close win or two more. That said, Kansas State is a better team on both sides of the ball, and should win here.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Troy (6-2) @ #19 Georgia (6-2)
Georgia's a slightly inconsistent team, and last week's performance was probably helped by Florida's suspect defense. So don't be surprised if this is closer than expected, since Troy's a completely solid team. If Troy wins, be very surprised.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3
2:00 PM
Colorado State (1-7) @ Brigham Young (5-2)
CSU's slightly better than that record, but mostly based on their early out of conference play against Cal and Colorado. In the MWC, they've pretty much been the worst team in the conference, and they're now facing the best. Eep.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (5-4) @ Memphis (4-4)
Both teams are doing well in the conference - ECU's been much luckier, but Memphis has been mostly playing the dregs of C-USA. I'll give Memphis's legitimate wins the advantage, especially being at home this week, but it's essentially a pick 'em.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 1
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Ole Miss had that weird stretch where they looked freaky good in their losses a while ago, but they seem pretty horrible in recent weeks. Not horrible enough to lose here, though.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 5
2:30 PM
Tennessee Tech @ #23 Auburn (6-3)
Nice to see the team's learned absolutely nothing about why they didn't make the BCS title game.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
Navy (4-4) @ Notre Dame (1-7)
As much as I'd like to, I can't pick Navy. While the UND offense is amazingly horrible, the Navy defense is just as much so - the Irish should score enough for their somewhat underrated D to win them the game.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Florida International (0-8) @ Arkansas State (3-5)
Arkansas State's looked horrible the last few weeks, so an upset's definitely possible. Of course, FIU's looked horrible for the last eighteen months or so.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-3) @ Baylor (3-6)
Another team sliding that's facing a team they should still beat easily. If Graham Harrell's interceptionitis continues to act up here, be very worried.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-5) @ Boise State (7-1)
Boise State's the class of the WAC, though as I've said the last few weeks, not as dominant to the extent that they have been (even if they still may go 8-0 in the conference). SJSU's a completely fine team for the WAC and all (if not as good as Nevada or Fresno), but on the blue turf, c'mon.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
Buffalo (4-5) @ Miami of Ohio (4-5)
Buffalo's been lucky, but they've won 4 MAC games in a row, so I am going to continue to ride this train until it stops. Miami of Ohio's one of the legitimately better teams in the conference, but that means pretty much nothing in this conference, and the RedHawks are no match for my own irrational bias.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
UTEP (4-4) @ Rice (1-7)
Rice is very awful!
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#8 Michigan (7-2) @ Michigan State (5-4)
Yeah, Michigan State's pretty much fallen apart, even if the gap between their statistics and scores has been pretty inexplicable. The Spartans may yet recover, but, um, Michigan's really good, so probably not here. I give MSU a minor shot mostly due to my rivalry game all-purpose caveat, but the Wolverines should just shut down the Spartans here.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Cincinnati (6-2) @ #15 South Florida (6-2)
Another pick 'em game. USF's the better team, but not by any sort of decisive margin. Still, while both teams have been scuffling, Cincy's slide has been more backed up by the numbers, and against worst teams. Plus USF's returning home, so I call for the Bulls to be the rebound team.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
#17 Texas (7-2) @ Oklahoma State (5-3)
Texas is a vulnerable team with a vulnerable secondary, and OK State's rallying after that horrible start. Somehow, this seems like more of an upset than it really is.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 2
Army (3-5) @ Air Force (6-3)
Not much to say here. Air Force has been surprisingly good, and that record's mostly legitimately. Army? Very bad.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 4
UCLA (5-3) @ Arizona (3-6)
I may be going out on a limb by saying this, but UCLA's a tough team to figure out. Arizona looks to be an improving team with an offense that's finally caught on, so this could be a dangerous game for the Bruins. Still, with this team, if they're set up to lose, like they are to an extent here, they'll probably win.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
Marshall (1-7) @ Central Florida (5-3)
Marshall's not 1-7 awful, more like 2-6 awful, maybe even 3-5 bad. UCF back Kevin Smith'll have a field day.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 3
3:45 PM
Maryland (4-4) @ North Carolina (2-6)
Maryland's uninspiringly fine. UNC's had some bad luck over the year, and that should tend to even out in other places, and this place is as good as any.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) @ Tennessee (5-3)
What a take on all comers attitude the STRONGEST CONFERENCE IN THE NATION! has.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 5
5:00 PM
#2 LSU (7-1) @ #18 Alabama (6-2)
Nope. Kentucky's one thing - that offense is good enough where they're gonna get theirs. Alabama, considerably less so, as the Florida State game in particular showed. The Alabama defense may hold LSU to enough to make it close, but this could very well be something like a 38-0 Tiger win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
Utah State (0-8) @ Fresno State (5-3)
Poor Utah State. Don't worry guys, just keep looking forward to that game against Idaho, you may win that!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (3-5) @ Idaho (1-8)
Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive in the WAC. Idaho's been unsurprisingly bad.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
New Mexico (6-2) @ TCU (4-4)
Ah jeez, the Mountain West. I'll call for the...upset? since TCU really should rebound somewhat; plus the Horned Frogs have a pretty good pass defense. Plus they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
#6 Missouri (7-1) @ Colorado (5-4)
I love Missouri's offense, I'm still up in the air about the defense. The Tigers really should win this one, but I'll defer to a weird gut feeling I have.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 1
Washington (2-6) @ Stanford (3-5)
Stanford is a pretty bad team, all things considered. Washington's regressed a hell of a lot from their hot start, to the point where Stanford does in fact have a shot, but the Huskies should still be the very easy favorite.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
6:40 PM
#7 Arizona State (8-0) @ #3 Oregon (7-1)
Really, as a game, this matches up the same as pretty much every Pac 10 game. Both teams will be able to move the ball, especially passing, and it will probably degenerate into a shootout either team can win. I'd still like to see an encore from Arizona State's running game, since last week's was their first without Ryan Torain, and since I feel the Ducks are more balanced on offense AND at home, I'll give them the nod.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Toledo (4-5)
While it would be amazingly fitting and MAClike for Toledo to lose a week after gaining 812 yards, I'm not especially sure EMU is a step up from the Northern Illinois team the Rockets did that to.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (4-5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-5)
Both teams have looked good lately, so that combined with this being the Sun Belt means it's a 50/50 proposition. ULM's coming off the bigger win and are at home, so there ya go.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Southern Miss (4-4) @ UAB (2-6)
An upset could happen under the right circumstances, but I doubt it. UAB's not as HORRIBLE as I expected, most merely bad about eighty percent of the time. Plus USM's had their share of bad luck, like that insane 7 turnover Rice game.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:15 PM
Rutgers (5-3) @ #25 Connecticut (7-1)
I just can't. Matt Grothe had an excellent day on the ground against UConn, and if he did, hoo boy is Ray Rice gonna have a field day. UConn could just as easily be 0-3 in the conference. That said, there's always a team or two, like Maryland or Kentucky last year, that just keeps riding luck to wins, and UConn could be that team; plus it's likelier that a letdown would happen on the road, against, say, Cincinnati. UConn could, like most of their games, win this with defense, luck, and Andre Dixon, but facing a team with a great individual player like Rice, it could be a very long night.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Tulsa (5-3) @ Tulane (2-6)
Probably more of the same from both teams - a huge line from Tulane RB Matt Forte, and Tulsa's offense putting up a bunch of yards for the win.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
Texas A&M (6-3) @ #5 Oklahoma (7-1)
A very possible upset. I'm liking TAMU more, since their offense seems to be back to the balance of 2006, rather than just relying on the run, which OU very much shuts down. So if the Oklahoma that showed up against Iowa State shows up here, the Sooners are very likely getting knocked off. And if the Oklahoma that's showed up in their other 6 wins comes to play, well, they could win by 30 or more.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (5-3) @ #10 USC (6-2)
Oregon State's a fine team, but they're not Oregon. The Beavers have a chance, especially if John David Booty isn't in his top form, but the Trojans are easily the better team, and, one would hope, motivated to win this and big.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
#11 South Carolina (6-3) @ Arkansas (5-3)
After Darren McFadden's horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day against Florida International of all teams, he gets no benefit of the doubt. Which, considering him and his backup are the entire team, isn't a good sign.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 4
Florida State (5-3) @ #16 Boston College (8-0)
Ehhhh. I mean, it could happen, but BC's defensive weakness being the secondary means it'll probably take a better QB in the ACC, someone like...uh...damn. Wow, I guess Matt Ryan is easily the best QB in the conference, since moderately above-average is, in fact, better than bad. Drew Weatherford could go nuts, I suppose, but expect BC to continue the march to getting blown out in the national title game.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 1
#22 Illinois (6-3) @ Minnesota (1-8)
Minnesota is, in fact, as legitimately horrible as that record. With their defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois somehow, say, spiked the ball and somehow gained 7 yards.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Wyoming (5-3) @ San Diego State (2-5)
With the MWC's parity, SDSU has a shot, but they're clearly a lower-tier team compared to Wyoming.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
Washington State (3-5) @ #14 California (5-3)
Yeah, Cal'll win this one in a shootout easy. Yawwwwn.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 4
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
SMU (1-7) @ Houston (5-3)
Houston's pretty easily the best team in the conference. SMU just might be the worst.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 5
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