TUESDAY
7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (5-6) @ Troy (7-3)
MTSU's been scuffling a bit lately in conference play after a hot start - not that it matters against Troy, especially on the road. The Trojans are the class of the conference.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence (out of 5): 3
THURSDAY
8:00 PM
#9 USC (8-2) @ #5 Arizona State (9-1)
Intriguing - SC's not dead yet. Really, any Pac 10 game between the top few teams (which, with Dixon out and Cal falling from grace, means...these two) is essentially a pick 'em. The kneejerk is to say USC's got the advantage on defense, but ASU's is no slouch; plus I have much more faith in Arizona State's offense to show up than USC's, and the Sun Devils have always been better at home in recent years. The Sun Devils should be the clear favorite, though USC obviously has a chance.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
11:00 AM
Central Michigan (6-5) @ Akron (4-7)
Oh, the MAC. Central lost to Eastern Michigan, which is likely a worse team than Akron, so a win by the Zips is thoroughly possible, especially at home in, again, the parity-filled MAC. Still, Akron showed less than nothing in losing to Miami of Ohio last week, so this is a similar situation to the CMU/EMU game - CMU's vulnerable, but there's no real reason to recommend Akron. Of course, Central lost that game, but still, I'm going with the Chippewas.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
12:00 PM
Nebraska (5-6) @ Colorado (5-6)
Nebraska's annihilation of Kansas State shows me they haven't given up yet, even if they probably should. At the very least, they should be extremely motivated to at least make it to .500, so I'll give all that talent a shot to beat a pretty mediocre team.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Mississippi (3-8) @ Mississippi State (6-5)
After Ole Miss's great offensive performance against LSU, I don't know. MSU's been the better team all year, and they had an offensive breakthrough of their own last week, so I'll give the Bulldogs the edge; still, they should allow a lot of points and yards in the process.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Wyoming (5-6) @ Colorado State (2-9)
Wyoming's imploding, but CSU is just outright bad. I'll still give the Rams the nod at home, though - this may be it for Sonny Lubick, the best coach in program history, so they have some extra motivation. Plus, at this point, these two teams are about even.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
Arkansas (7-2) @ #1 LSU (10-1)
LSU's an elite run defense at home, and McFadden was mostly dormant against Mississippi State. McFadden could always take over a game, but against this defense, on the road, after Arkansas allowed that many yards to Mississippi State, this could easily be a walk for the Tigers.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Toledo (5-6) @ Bowling Green (7-4)
BGSU's probably the best team in the MAC. Which gives them a 51% chance of winning here. Okay, okay, 52%.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#16 Texas (9-2) @ Texas A&M (6-5)
Oh why the hell not. A&M's at home in a rivalry game with an outgoing coach, the Aggies seem to have rediscovered their pass/run balance, and Texas has that shaky secondary.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
9:00 PM
#18 Boise State (10-1) @ Hawaii (10-0)
Hawaii could easily pull this out at home. They seem to have a knack for doing just enough. Still, they've done just enough against teams like San Jose State and Utah State, which Boise's absolutely annihilated. This is Hawaii's first big test of the year, and unlike, say, Kansas, they've done nothing to prove they can handle it.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
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