I'm in the pre-training phase for my first job out of college, and have a whole lot of reading/assorted work to do, so I'm getting this all out of the way so I can be productive during the week. Pray nobody gets injured so my thoughts remain relevant.
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#18 Boston College (7-0) @ #22 Virginia Tech (6-1)
Well. BC isn't really all that great, but then again, VT hasn't showed much of anything either except against the Dukes of the world. Still, I mean, come on. It's an undefeated team. On a Thursday. On the road. In a game that could very well be an upset. In 2007. Duh.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence (out of 5): 2
9:00 PM
Air Force (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-2)
UNM seems to be the favorite in the Mountain West at the moment, and Air Force has gotten a bit lucky in a few of their conference wins. I expect things to even out somewhat here, even if the craziness continuing wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
9:00 PM
Boise State (6-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
A bit of a close one. Boise seems to easily be the best team in the WAC, but it doesn't seem like a huge difference or them being a tier above. Still, while Fresno is much closer to their pre-2006 level than their implosion last year, they haven't really broken out from the WAC pack. An upset's possible, but Boise's the class of the conference until proven otherwise.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#4 West Virginia (6-1) @ #24 Rutgers (5-2)
West Virginia's done a pretty good job shutting down the run, though Ray Rice is admittedly the best back they've faced yet. Still, Rutgers needs to be at the top of their game to have a chance against the Mountaineers, and Mike Teel's spottiness doesn't have me completely convinced yet. The Mountaineers should be able to put up points here, though if fumbilitis strikes the team like it did versus USF, Rutgers can obviously win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Indiana (5-3) @ #16 Wisconsin (6-2)
An intriguing one. Indiana isn't especially known for its running game, but if Wisconsin's run defense holds to its poor form, the Hoosiers backs plus their great QB, Kellen Lewis, may be too much for the Badgers to handle. Still, the same can be said the other way around - Wisconsin has a very good QB in Tyler Donovan, and running back P.J. Hill's probably the best player on either team. This could, and frankly probably should, be an exceedingly close game, but I'll give the nod to the proven home team.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
Ball State (5-3) @ #20 Illinois (5-3)
Ball State's been good in spots, but come on now. The Cardinals offense may be able to do something, but I don't see them stopping Illinois from running it often and running it for many scores.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 4
Colorado (4-4) @ Texas Tech (6-2)
Colorado stopped the Oklahoma offense, so I guess anything's possible. Plus Cody Hawkins is a bit of a gunslinger, so the Buffaloes actually have a chance if this goes into a shootout. Still, Texas Tech's been mostly on point this year, and I see no reason to pick against them.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 2
Michigan State (5-3) @ Iowa (3-5)
Iowa turned back into a pumpkin against Purdue, but the Hawkeyes remain a looming threat. They shut down Illinois's run game and forced them to rely on a QB that can't win a game by his lonesome. The same thing could well happen here. That said, Brian Hoyer's probably better than either of the Illinois quarterbacks, and Iowa's offense was bad enough themselves that they only won thanks to a horrible game-ending interception. The Hawkeyes can win, but if they also can lose if their gameplan works, I'm not picking them.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Pittsburgh (3-4) @ Louisville (4-4)
It says something about how far Louisville's fallen when this game has intrigue. It says something more when I find myself picking Pittsburgh. I'm not sure the Pitt defense can completely stop Louisville, but the Panthers looked like a new team against Cincinnati with LaRod Stephens-Howling back. It almost reminds me of a team they played close and a team I just discussed, Michigan State, in that their two star running backs can carry the load while complementing a QB that, while solid, isn't a game-changer. Of course, since Pitt QB Pat Bostick is a freshman, that may also have to be changed to "isn't a game changer YET." Plus, really, you don't have to be a game-changer against Louisville's D, sometimes they'll just let you have some yards after catch. So, yes, I'm picking Pitt to pull off the somewhat shocking upset. Although, of course, watch Louisville go nuts and win 49-10.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 1
North Carolina (2-5) @ Wake Forest (5-2)
Wake's a fine team, which, in the ACC, will give you a 5-2 record. UNC's surprisingly good, much better than their record - they could've very well beaten South Carolina and Virginia Tech. While I'm not in love with Heels QB TJ Yates's 10/10 TD/INT ratio, parity tends to reign in the ACC and UNC is probably at Wake's level.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
Northwestern (5-3) @ Purdue (6-2)
Oh mama, this could be a fun shootout. This SHOULD be a fun shootout. Purdue has the more talented horses so I'll give them the edge at home, but Northwestern could win this very easily.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
Mississippi State (4-4) @ #12 Kentucky (6-2)
It'd take the conflation of MSU being at the top of their game and Kentucky playing the worst they have all year in order for the Bulldogs to win this. I mean, it could happen, but Kentucky on a bad night by their standards this year (if they've even had one?) should put enough points to win this.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Akron (3-4) @ Buffalo (3-5)
Buffalo played well against Syracuse, even if they lost. Akron hasn't been all that impressive, and I am nothing if not irrationally on the Buffalo bandwagon at the moment. Even if they were UConn's rivalry game in NCAA Football for some reason for quite a few years.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Central Michigan (4-4) @ Kent State (3-5)
CMU looked to have gotten its act together, and I realize Clemson is a cut about the MAC, but wow, that was a whoopin'. Kent State's been somewhat unlucky in close games, so I'll call for things to even out here at home.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Delaware @ Navy (4-3)
Delaware's typically a pretty good I-AA, so they're probably good enough to do well against the suspect Navy D. But, hey, if I didn't pick North Dakota State vs. Minnesota, I'm not picking Delaware.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Iowa State (1-7) @ #8 Missouri (6-1)
Iowa State's been somewhat unlucky on the year, but come on now. If Missouri shut down the Texas Tech offense, this'll be ugly early and often.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 4
Florida International (0-7) @ Arkansas (4-3)
FIU's the worst team in I-A, fairly easily. Way to schedule tough, Arkansas.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Miami of Ohio (4-4) @ Vanderbilt (4-3)
Miami's a dangerous MAC team, but I'm on the Vandy bandwagon after their win over South Carolina, where they finally played up to my preseason expectation. I'm on the VANDwagon, ha ha ha. God that was horrible.
My Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 3
UNLV (2-6) @ Wyoming (4-3)
The Mountain West is so filled with parity, who knows. Two teams that probably deserved to win last week, but I'd say Wyoming's closer to the top of the conference while UNLV's near the bottom. And the Cowboys are at home, so there.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
#6 USC (6-1) @ #3 Oregon (6-1)
Oh boy, this one'll be fun. While USC's obviously a top-flight team, they really haven't had much of a schedule thus far, with the best team they've beaten being...god, Nebraska. Thus, while the stats say USC has the better defense by far, it's hard to tell how good the unit is when they've been playing Evan Sharpley. Then again, the inverse is somewhat true, as Oregon hasn't faced much of a defense all year, outside of Michigan who, well, you know, spread offense. Oh, what the hell, I'll go with the Ducks - their offense has been nuts week in week out, while USC's had the lapse against Arizona.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
Arizona (2-6) @ Washington (2-5)
Hard one to pick. Arizona's had a bit of hard luck, and that new offense seems to be taking somewhat. But Washington's also a fine enough team to win games like this, even if the shine's somewhat off from their big 2-0 start. UA's luck could even out here, or Jake Locker's mini-Tebow impression could lead the Huskies to a win. I'll go with the former based mostly on gut feeling.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 1
Memphis (3-4) @ Tulane (2-5)
It's a Tulane game, so I have to say, MAN. MATT FORTE'S REALLY GOOD. Memphis has been decent but unimpressive, so I'll actually call for Forte to lead the way to a minor upset.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
SMU (1-6) @ Tulsa (4-3)
SMU is bad! Tulsa will put up very many yards and have a victorious day!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (2-5) @ Utah State (0-7)
USU's probably gotta win a game sometime this year, but Louisiana Tech's been surprisingly competitive and should be better than that record.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#5 Florida (5-2) @ #23 Georgia (5-2)
Well, Georgia's better than Auburn, so I suppose the Bulldogs have a shot. Still, they haven't been playing all that great lately, so I expect Florida to win this handily. If Georgia wasn't a running team, I'd give them more of a shot, but Florida's secondary is their weakness, and they've actually done a pretty good job controlling things on the ground.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Minnesota (1-7) @ #10 Michigan (6-2)
Oh come on now.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
#13 South Florida (6-1) @ Connecticut (6-1)
I am so close to doing it, but I won't. UConn neutralized Brian Brohm and all, but...no, no, I can't. Not two weeks in a row. Even if USF hasn't really shown an ability to run it yet. Oh, oh, maybe I could...oh, no.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1
Nebraska (4-4) @ #14 Texas (6-2)
Whether this will be a step up from Texas's wins over Baylor and Iowa State remains inconclusive.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
Clemson (5-2) @ Maryland (4-3)
Picking Clemson games seems beyond rhyme or reason. On a good day, they can beat anyone in the conference. On a bad day, they can lose to pretty much anyone short of Duke. I'll say that the Tigers have turned the corner after smacking the crap out of Central Michigan, but really, who knows.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (2-5) @ East Carolina (4-4)
Meh. UAB's more competitive than expected, but I wouldn't even call them mediocre within the conference. ECU's perfectly fine, nothing more, nothing less, and that should be enough against this team at home.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Western Michigan (3-5) @ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
WMU's been horribly disappointing. Eastern Michigan's been horrible.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
3:35 PM
Baylor (3-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
Baylor's not wholly awful, but they're easily the worst team in the Big 12. KSU's not at the level where this is a guaranteed win just yet, but it's pretty close.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe (2-5) @ Florida Atlantic (4-3)
ULM's been getting their act together after an awful start, but FAU's still one of the top Sun Belt teams until further notice.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Idaho (1-7) @ Nevada (3-4)
Nevada might be the #3 team in the WAC. They've been smacking the crap out of some teams with the Pistol offense, and this should be no exception.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
4:30 PM
#25 Virginia (7-1) @ NC State (2-5)
I know I ranked UVA and all, but this screams of an upset to even things out. UVA's not as good as that record, NC State's not as bad as theirs. If the Wolfpack cutting down on turnovers (yes, 2 counts) last week signals the start of a trend, this could actually get ugly.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
Rice (1-6) @ Marshall (0-7)
If Marshall doesn't get on the board here, they might as well give up. They're not THAT bad.
My Pick: Marshall
Confidence: 3
5:30 PM
Utah (5-3) @ Colorado State (1-6)
Meh. CSU didn't look all that impressive against UNLV in their first win of the year. Utah seems to have gotten their act together, so I'll go with the hot hand.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
Mississippi (2-6) @ Auburn (5-3)
Brandon Cox has shown legitimate improvement. Unless he regresses horribly, this should be a definitive win at worst.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Ohio (3-5) @ Bowling Green (4-3)
BGSU's been playing beter of the two as of late. That means nothing given the MAC, but still.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
6:30 PM
Stanford (3-4) @ Oregon State (4-3)
Stanford showed some legitimate improvement in beating Arizona, so they have a shot here. Still, Oregon State seems to be picking up steam as the season goes on.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington State (2-5)
I honestly have no rationale behind this pick except that it's UCLA, and this almost has to happen.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
#21 Kansas (7-0) @ Texas A&M (6-2)
A&M's a perfectly above average team that can beat a whole bunch of teams unless the matchup presents a problem, such as Texas Tech's wacky offense and Miami's stout run defense. Kansas really presents no such problem - they're just pretty good overall. And, hey, A&M is too, and they're at home and might be better.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
Troy (5-2) @ Arkansas State (3-4)
Given Arkansas State's implosion last week, there's almost no way I can pick them.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
Middle Tennessee State (3-5) @ North Texas (1-6)
There's always the shot UNT puts up enough yardage to be a threat, but I'm not gonna pick it here. MTSU looks to be a perfectly fine Sun Belt team, which is more than the Mean Green is.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-7) @ Toledo (3-5)
NIU's awful. Awful bad. Awful awful.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#11 South Carolina (6-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
The Vols have a shot - SC's far from an unbeatable team, as Vandy obviously showed. Still, I can't help but think that Carolina will exploit that Tennessee secondary and bad. Plus, c'mon, it's Spurrier.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#1 Ohio State (8-0) @ #15 Penn State (6-2)
Oh no, this could get real ugly. OSU shuts down the run almost completely, which leaves the Nittany Lions to rely on...Anthony Morelli. He's improved, but, um, well, no.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
Duke (1-6) @ Florida State (4-3)
Duke has a shot. No way I'm pickin' em, but Duke has a shot.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
9:05 PM
Houston (4-3) @ UTEP (4-3)
UTEP's fairly lucky to have that record. Houston's offensive firepower seems to be back at full speed, so that'll be trouble for the Miners.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 2
9:30 PM
Brigham Young (5-2) @ San Diego State (2-5)
BYU's good! SDSU, not so much.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 3
10:00 PM
#17 California (5-2) @ #9 Arizona State (7-0)
Y'know, Arizona State's defense hasn't been half bad. That said, this'll be the best offense they've faced. Really, this is a pick em - it'll probably turn into a Pac 10tastic shootout that either team can win. Still, if one team lays the beat down, I'd lean towards it being Arizona State, as the Sun Devils have been a much better team at home in recent years.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
New Mexico State (4-4) @ Hawaii (7-0)
The crap teams of the WAC have been taking their best shot and coming very close to knocking off Hawaii. I realize this is at Aloha Stadium and all, but New Mexico State is almost definitely the best of those crap teams.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Central Florida (4-3) @ Southern Miss (4-3)
USM's run defense isn't especially great, so I expect UCF's Kevin Smith to continue his torrid pace. Then again, USM's a running team too, and UCF's run defense is about as mediocre as USM's. Oh, who knows, I'll just go with my first instinct.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
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