SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#5 West Virginia (4-1) @ Syracuse (1-4)
Don't expect another Cuse upset here - QB Andrew Robinson's shown potential, but WVU's defense, and quite frankly, probably offense, are waaaay better than Louisville's. And even if Syracuse gets a lead, the Orange's poor rushing performance against Miami of freaking Ohio suggests that WVU will have more than enough opportunities to take the ball downfield and score. Pat White is a gametime decision, but the only difference that should make is the Mountaineers winning, say, 28-13 rather than 45-13.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#8 Wisconsin (5-0) @ #21 Illinois (4-1)
A very winnable game for the Illini, as Wisconsin's a solidly above-average team, but nothing that special. As MSU's Javon Ringer showed, that Wisconsin run defense can be exploited, and the Illini's Rashard Mendenhall should do so. Still, I'll stick with Wisconsin since the Badgers both have an excellent tailback of their own in PJ Hill, and a much better QB in senior Tyler Donovan. Insert token comment about how Juice Williams needs to become less of a raw playmaker and more of a good quarterback here.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 1
#16 Miami (4-1) @ North Carolina (1-4)
Miami should stop the run as they always do, and UNC's passing game definitely isn't enough to win this one. It may not be overly impressive, but defense and the running game should lead the Canes to an easy win.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 4
Bowling Green (3-1) @ #17 Boston College (5-0)
While BGSU hasn't quite returned to the level of greatness that the Josh Harris and Omar Jacobs years brought, the Falcons are once again a very dangerous team. In fact, past Georgia Tech, this or Wake Forest seems to be the best team that BC's faced so far. The Eagles don't seem to be anything special, especially now that Matt Ryan seems to have cooled off from an early torrid pace. Still, they're a solidly above-average team (as always) that shoooouuuld be able to win this one, even if an upset led by the BGSU passing game wouldn't surprise me.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
Central Michigan (2-3) @ Ball State (3-2)
While CMU got a big rebound win over Northern Illinois last week, they didn't play all that well; the Chippewas got their yardage, but gave up tons to NIU, and won mostly thanks to five NIU turnovers. Meanwhile, Ball State's been a wrecking ball since their season-opening loss to Miami of Ohio, and have probably played the best of any team in the MAC. CMU seems to be inexplicably sinking fast, and Ball State should be able to gather yardage early and often en route to a victory.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 2
Eastern Michigan (2-3) @ Michigan (3-2)
EMU's improved from last year, but still in the very lower tier of I-A teams. An easy win for Michigan.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 5
Georgia Tech (3-2) @ Maryland (3-2)
ACC games are getting as hard to pick as MAC games. GT's defense, or maybe just Clemson's inconsistency, gave the Yellow Jackets the win against Clemson, but QB Taylor Bennett played horribly. Meanwhile, Maryland pretty much just outplayed Rutgers for their momentum-gaining big win. Maryland's probably slightly better, although who knows with their loss to Wake Forest, so that plus homefield gives them the edge in this pick 'em.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (1-4) @ Indiana (4-1)
Minnesota is a team without a passing defense. Indiana is a team with a young, very good quarterback that's only getting better. Uh oh.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 4
Kansas (4-0) @ Kansas State (3-1)
Very intriguing. Kansas State is somewhat of a known quantity, a pretty good, not great team with a talented young quarterback. Kansas, however, is a complete unknown. The Jayhawks have beaten the absolute hell out of their non-conference schedule, but with Toledo and Central Michigan's struggles this year, that now doesn't look all that impressive. KSU has more or a reputation and is more of a known quantity, so I'll choose them, but there's really no telling how this'll go.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1
Northwestern (2-3) @ Michigan State (4-1)
So here's the litmus test for Michigan State - this a team they should beat pretty handily, but it's also no longer September. If the Spartans lose here, it looks like the same old same old. PUCKER PUCKER PUCKER.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Vanderbilt (3-1) @ Auburn (3-2)
An intriguing game. Vanderbilt has upset potential, as RB Cassen Jackson-Garrison is talented, and QB Chris Nickson is also very good if inconsistent. Still, the Commodores haven't really had a statement game where everything goes on all cylinders. Auburn can play with anyone, as last week's win against Florida showed, but Brandon Cox can come out and play badly enough to lose the game, as the game against Mississippi State showed. Still, even if Auburn's offense is inconsistent, there's no guarantee Vandy's won't be as well; while an upset is possible, I wouldn't quite bet on it.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Ohio (2-3) @ Buffalo (1-4)
MACTASTIC! Ohio's been playing mediocre; Buffalo's been playing slightly worse than mediocre.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 2
Wake Forest (2-2) @ Duke (1-4)
Duke could very well pull off the upset, as the Blue Devils have made strides, especially QB Thaddeus Lewis, who's quietly been having a very good year. Still, Wake sems to have their momentum going after wins against Army and Maryland, so while last year was a fluke, this should be part of the Deacons' march towards bowl eligibility.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 2
Northern Illinois (1-4) @ Temple (0-5)
Two teams that have suffered one one-sided loss (Iowa and Buffalo, respectively), but otherwise been competitive during what essentially amounts to two lost seasons. Temple's actually played the better of the two recently, and they have homefield, so I'll give them the slight edge.
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Louisiana Tech (1-3) @ Mississippi (1-4)
Ole Miss won't be making a run at the SEC title or anything, but the Rebels seem to have their shit together, especially on offense. Bad news for LA Tech.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 4
TCU (3-2) @ Wyoming (2-2)
A pretty interesting matchup, as TCU has the definite talent edge, but both teams have played at about the same level, with Wyoming's win over Virginia probably being the most impressive either team has. Still, TCU's coming off of a definitive, if not dominating win over Colorado State, and despite the different in records, the Rams and Wyoming are about the same level of team. This could really go either way, but I'll go with the Frogs.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
UAB (1-3) @ Mississippi State (3-2)
UAB hasn't quite been as awful as I expected going into this year, but MSU is a pretty good little team that should find a way to 6-6, partially thanks to games like this.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Houston (2-2) @ Alabama (3-2)
Alabama pretty much fell apart in their loss to FSU; the running game was shut down, and without the running game, the Crimson Tide isn't really that much. This should be a rebound effort - Houston's a fine team, but they're not the threat to upper-level BCS teams like Alabama that they've been in previous years. I've said Bama QB John Parker Wilson isn't good enough to win on his own, but that's moreso against SEC teams - if the running game's woes continue, that'll mean more for the Tide's season as a whole, rather than any change in the result here.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (2-3) @ Kent State (3-2)
Kent State seems to be the better team, even if Miami's somewhat of an ex-factor - the RedHawks shit the bed against Cincinnati and especially Colorado, but beat Ball State, hung close with Minnesota, and looked good in beating Syracuse. A lot like some of the other games so far - I'll take the slightly better-playing team at home in a game that can go either way.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
#6 Georgia (4-1) @ Tennessee (2-2)
Tennessee's a pretty boring team this year, so far winning easy over the teams they should beat, and losing easy to the teams they should lose to. This is the latter, even if they have a shot.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
#9 Oklahoma (4-1) vs. #13 Texas (4-1)
OU would've been the easy favorite here, but it's slightly closer after the Sooners' loss to Colorado, where QB Sam Bradford finally played like the true freshman he is. But then again, Colt McCoy's been like some sort of weird NCAA Football 08 glitch - he played like a senior as a redshirt freshman, and now that he's a sophomore, things just kind of rolled over and he's playing like a redshirt freshman this year. So with the quarterbacks essentially being equal, if the running game isn't a wash, OU has the slight edge there. And on defense, especially in the secondary. So, yeah, Oklahoma's the better team, and still pretty easily. Though the usually rivalry game rule applies where anything can happen.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
#10 South Florida (4-0) @ Florida Atlantic (3-2)
FAU's actually a pretty good team, so there's a 4% or so chance they can actually pull this one off. Still, come on now - USF has established them as a very good team, and the level of team that handily wins games like this.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
Iowa (2-3) @ #22 Penn State (3-2)
Iowa hasn't been exactly awful, but the Hawkeyes have pretty much slid back to the Big Ten pack - the offense hasn't been all that productive, and the defense has been fine, but nothing to either extreme. Penn State has all that talent on defense, but little to show for it thanks to dual threat QB/disappointment Anthony Morelli. This really could go either way, thanks to Morelli, but I'll hang onto my last scraps of optimism for the Nittany Lions and probably regret it later.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 1
NC State (1-4) @ #24 Florida State (3-1)
NC State's been horribly disappointing - their performance has been spotty, and most good days have been negated thanks to turnovers. They may be due to get things together and have a bit of a correction, but this doesn't look like it'll be the game - FSU put forth a very good effort in beating Alabama last week, and even with a dropoff in effort, they should beat a NC State team that's much worse than the Tide.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
#15 Arizona State (5-0) @ Washington State (2-3)
The latest...test? for Arizona State. The Sun Devils have pretty much been a nuclear warhead of destruction thus far, and Colorado and Oregon State are probably better teams than Wazzou. The Cougs could pull off an upset if it winds up being a shootout, but ASU could just as easily win in that scenario.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 3
Arizona (2-3) @ Oregon State (2-3)
OSU's blowout loss to UCLA pretty much established them as a middle-tier Pac 10 team. Beavers QB Sean Canfield's peripheral numbers are pretty good, but the TD/INT ratios aren't really there. Last week against Wazzou, it looked like Arizona's new spread offense finally took, as QB Willie Tuitama had a big day. It could probably go either way, but Arizona's the one with momentum rather than malaise.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
Idaho (1-4) @ San Jose State (2-3)
Neither team's all that good, as SJSU looks to have turned back into a pumpkin. The Spartans are at home and probably have more talent, soooooo...
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 1
4:05 PM
Fresno State (2-2) @ Nevada (2-2)
Well, both teams lost to better teams as expected, and beat I-AAs as expected, so it really comes down to their games last week. Fresno played about even with Louisiana Tech in a win, and Nevada played about even than UNLV. And UNLV's better than Louisiana Tech, PLUS Nevada's at home, so if I carry the 3, let me see.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 1
5:30 PM
San Diego State (1-3) @ Colorado State (0-4)
Colorado State remains the best winless team in the nation, and I'll keep saying that until, well, they win.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 3
6:00 PM
#19 Virginia Tech (4-1) @ Clemson (4-1)
Oh who the hell knows with Clemson. Virginia Tech's defense is fine, but neither that nor its unproductive offense are enough to beat Clemson is the Tigers decide to show up. So it's really on the Tigers. If James Davis and C.J. Spiller are productive, or really, if one of them are and QB Cullen Harper plays like he did in their first four games and not like last week, Clemson'll win. And if not, they won't. And they're at home, so why the hell not.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Stanford (1-3) @ #2 USC (4-0)
Stanford's QB is out after suffering seizures in a restaurant this past week. Insert tasteless metaphor about seizures and Stanford's level of play here.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
Akron (2-3) @ Western Michigan (2-3)
Two upper-level MAC teams. Maybe? It's hard to tell with that conference. Anyway, I saw Akron play last week, and
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 1
Chattanooga @ Arkansas (2-2)
Oh come on now, I thought we were done with these.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5
Arkansas State (2-2) @ Louisiana-Monroe (0-4)
ASU's been the competitive one out of conference, admittedly against a weaker schedule. In the preseason I would've picked ULM because of their experience, and the Sun Belt is pretty much a crapshoot, so why the heck not.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 1
Tulane (1-3) @ Army (2-3)
Tulane hung in there against LSU, which is a hell of a lot more than Army's done. Tulane RB Matt Forte is good!
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 2
Colorado (3-2) @ Baylor (3-2)
Baylor's best win is Buffalo, and as horrible as the Bears looked against Texas A&M last week, it looks like another year. CU could have a letdown, but it'd probably take an implosion.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 3
Troy (3-2) @ Florida International (0-5)
With Rice's win over Southern Miss, FIU's almost definitely the worst team in I-A win now. Yep.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
Iowa State (1-4) @ Texas Tech (4-1)
TTU gains lots of yards and points. Iowa State does not.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 4
North Texas (0-4) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (0-5)
Um...ULL's lost by closer margins. Kind of. UNT could put up an offensive explosion like they did against SMU, but then again, they lost that game.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 1
Virginia (4-1) @ Middle Tennessee State (1-4)
MTSU's shit effort in the season opener against Florida Atlantic seems to be an abberation, as the Blue Raiders have at least picked up yardage since then, if not wins. But, uh oh, Virginia seems to have their shit together too.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 3
Liberty @ Toledo (1-4)
I don't think Toledo's season will be THAT disappointing.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 4
7:30 PM
Oklahoma State (3-2) @ #18 Texas A&M (4-1)
A pretty big test for TAMU - a win here would make this the best team the Aggies have beaten. OK State's offense seems to have gotten its act together after its horrible game against UGA, but as for that defense, well, not so much. This could, and actually should, be a fun little offensive contest, and, what the heck, I give OK State the edge in that scenario.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1
Central Florida (3-1) @ East Carolina (2-3)
ECU could actually pull this one out - the C-USA isn't a horrible divided conference in terms of quality, and the Pirates are a decent little team. But still, UCF seems to be the class of the conference easy, and Kevin Smith is on an absolute warpath. He alone should be able to give the Knights the win.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#11 Florida (4-1) @ #1 LSU (5-0)
LSU being mortal last week made this interesting, Florida loss or not. If Florida's weakness was their offense, LSU could've made this real ugly real quick, as the Virginia Tech game showed. But with Florida's weakness on defense, if the LSU offense falters, Tim Tebow and the Florida offense could be able to pull off the upset. Still, Florida is essentially a one-man show, and one man? Beating that defense? Come on now.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
#3 Ohio State (5-0) @ #20 Purdue (5-0)
Purdue's a fine team, Purdue has a chance, but after not exactly lighting the world on fire in their win over Notre Dame, they probably won't do much against a team as good as OSU. Purdue should, at the very least, score the most points of any Buckeye opponent, though.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 3
#23 Cincinnati (5-0) @ Rutgers (4-1)
Could go either way - these are two pretty good, not overly great teams. And really, both teams aren't especially proven - Cincinnati's win over Oregon State is the biggest one the two have, and even that was due to an insane turnover day. I was razor-thin close on these teams in the preseason, and I'm pretty much the same way now - Ray Rice is obviously the best player amongst the two teams, but I've loved the Brian Kelly hire at Cincy, and the Bearcats have looked pretty good, even with their luck. Still, I picked Rutgers before the year, and at home I'll give them the slight edge.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 1
Notre Dame (0-5) @ UCLA (4-1)
UCLA's a veteran team, UCLA's put up some excellent yardage numbers, but Notre Dame's improving rapidly. Both the passing game and rushing game have improved exponentially, and the defense isn't really all that bad. And the Irish are facing a Karl Dorrell coached team. I'm gonna do it, I'm gonna pull the trigger!
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
UNLV (2-3) @ Air Force (3-2)
The Mountain West is another crapshoot conference this year, so really, who knows. Air Force has been more consistently impressive, and they're at home, so why the heck not, I've done that like 5 or 6 other times this week.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 1
9:05 PM
Tulsa (3-1) @ UTEP (3-2)
Another one of those glut of slightly above-average mid-major teams that's hard to pick. Tulsa has the biggest win (BYU) and UTEP has the worst loss (New Mexico State), so WHY THE HECK NOT!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
9:15 PM
Nebraska (4-1) @ #14 Missouri (4-0)
Nebraska QB Sam Keller has been good, but not great, so Missouri probably has the better offense. Nebraska just gave up over 600 yards to Ball State, and over 400 yards to Iowa State, so Missouri probably has the better defense. And Missouri has homefield. The only reason Missouri should lose this is historical precedent of being Missouri.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Utah State (0-5) @ #25 Hawaii (5-0)
Even if Colt Brennan throws 5 picks again, no. Especially not at Hawaii.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
New Mexico State (3-2) @ Boise State (3-1)
NMSU has the wacky high-octane offense, but I give them little chance here. Well, maybe if Ian Johnson gets injured.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 3
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