With the UConn game already previewed, I had to put this sentence from rivals.com's Big East rundown here, since I can think of nothing that sums up UConn football more than this sentence:
Police urged Connecticut fans to allow more time for their commute to Rentschler Field for Friday's game against Louisville, not because of the crowd anticipated for the game but because of the opening of a massive outdoor sporting goods store nearby.
Perfect.
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#18 Penn State (5-2) @ Indiana (5-2)
This would've been much more of a toss-up had PSU not looked so impressive in beating Wisconsin last week, and had Indiana not imploded against Michigan State. As with pretty much any Nittany Lions opponent, Indiana has a chance here if Anthony Morelli implodes like he has many times during the year. Still, even though IU QB Kellen Lewis seems to be one of the fastest-improving players in the conference, if he couldn't handle Michigan State's D, I doubt the Hoosiers will do much against that stout Penn State unit.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Northern Illinois (1-6) @ #19 Wisconsin (5-2)
I don't really get why people are so down on the Badgers recently - the run defense is a liability, but there's still a lot to like. I guess NIU could possibly run enough times and well enough to somehow win it, but it's been a horrible season and the Huskies haven't shown enough offense to beat most other MAC teams, let alone a team like Wisconsin.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 4
#23 Cincinnati (6-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-4)
Cincy's a beatable team, and Pitt has some upside, but since Dave Wannstedt's Achilles injury didn't take him out for the game, I just can't pick the Panthers.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 3
Army (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (4-3)
Tech seems like one of the better teams in the ACC, for whatever that's worth. Well, it's definitely worth being able to beat Army easy at home.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 5
Central Michigan (4-3) @ Clemson (4-2)
CMU seems to have gotten their act together, so they could actually pose a threat if the Bad Clemson shows up, as it's tended to lately. However, the Tigers will be facing a MAC defense, so figure on either QB Cullen Harper or the RB duo of Davis and Spiller to have a huge day and let Clemson win comfortably.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 2
Iowa (3-4) @ Purdue (5-2)
Iowa kind of showed signs of life, being able to stop the run enough against Illinois to win; but then again, the Illini are a run-dependent team and Juice Williams was actually accurate if not overly productive. Purdue's still relatively unproven, but they've shown a pretty good passing game if nothing else; even if they only put up twentysomething points, I don't think Iowa's offense will be able to follow suit.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 3
Miami of Ohio (4-3) @ Temple (2-5)
Miami of Ohio completely smacked the crap out of Bowling Green in an unexpected manner, while Temple has a good day beating a sliding Akron team. Given the MAC's unpredictable nature, and that the RedHawks look like a MAC contender...
My Pick: Temple
Confidence: 1
North Dakota State @ Minnesota (1-6)
NDSU's the #1 team in I-AA at the moment, and absolutely beat the hell out of Central Michigan earlier this year. Looking at their stats shows a passing offense that is accurate if not amazingly productive, so the Bison are fully capable of exploiting that Minnesota D. I typically don't pick I-AA teams to win, so I'll assume the Gophers will somehow pull it out, but if there ever was a game that screamed out to me that it'd happen, this would be the one.
My Pick: Minnesota
Confidence: 1
12:30 PM
#3 Oklahoma (6-1) @ Iowa State (1-6)
And now playing Seneca Wallace, Bret Meyer! This'll be a smashing.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 5
Vanderbilt (3-3) @ #11 South Carolina (6-1)
SC's a very good team, but seems like a prime upset candidate - good not great, just kind of chugging along not all that impressively. However, Vandy hasn't really lived up to expectations - if they play up to their talent, they could pull off the win, but they haven't really shown that thus far this season. And since they haven't, I won't pick them.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
#14 Texas (5-2) @ Baylor (3-4)
Much like Iowa State was, this should be an impressive win for Texas that means absolutely nothing. Well, bowl eligibility, but that's it.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5
#22 Tennessee (4-2) @ Alabama (5-2)
Alabama's probably the more talented team, but the Crimson Tide have been amazingly unimpressive starting with the Florida State loss. They've shown pretty much nothing against Houston and Ole Miss, but again, there's the talent there where they could rebound with a shitkicking at any moment. That said, I'll give the Vols the edge here - if Alabama had been consistently shutting down the pass, I'd give it to the Tide, but Erik Ainge is fully capable of putting this one out of reach, especially if the Bama running game disappoints. But really, this could go either way.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 1
1:00 PM
Wake Forest (4-2) @ Navy (4-2)
Wake's a perfectly average team, which will make some noise in the perfectly average ACC. Navy's Navy - they'll run for a lot of yards and points, and this year the defense is suspect enough to let any team in it. I'll say that Navy pulls it off based on absolutely no evidence except my gut, which is also hungry.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Wyoming (4-2) @ Air Force (5-2)
The Alphabetical Bookend Bowl. The MWC's quite paritytastic this year, and Wyoming looked like the favorite in the conference before being brought back to earth last week against New Mexico. So, who knows. AFA's 3-1 in Mountain West play, so they've looked good, but Wyoming's win over Virginia is the best either team has on their resume. I've been higher on Wyoming throughout the year so I'll give the edge to the Cowboys, but really, this is a pick 'em.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
Arkansas (3-3) @ Mississippi (2-5)
I think Arkansas has reached the point where one has to ask "Is Darren McFadden enough?" I thought he would be to win games like this, but Ole Miss has been more competitive than expected, and Arkansas QB Casey Dick has shown absolutely no signs of allowing the Razorbacks to be competitive in a shootout. I'll give McFadden the benefit of the doubt in carrying Arkansas to a win here, despite his horrible performance last week; however, as far as the SEC goes, this one may be pretty much it.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Ball State (4-3) @ Western Michigan (3-4)
WMU's been one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, even if the Broncos are showing faint signs of life. As for Ball State, their loss to Central Michigan looks better now that CMU seems to have gotten their act together, and that offense is quite good. Anything can happen with the MAC, but I'll give the edge to who appears to be the better team.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
2:05 PM
Texas A&M (5-2) @ Nebraska (4-3)
TAMU's a running team, so Nebraska may not hemorrhage passing yardage like they have been, but they haven't shown much of an ability to stop the run either. I guess there's the possibility that Nebraska can win a shootout, but if OK State did what they did to the Huskers, I can't see the Aggies doing much worse.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Memphis (2-4) @ Rice (1-5)
Rice showed signs of life against the Houston D, but that still brings them from "worst team in I-A" contender up to, like, somewhere in the top five. Memphis is disappointing, but at least they don't appear to be outright bad.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 2
3:05 PM
Nevada (2-4) @ Utah State (0-6)
Nevada is way better than that record, as their high-powered offense and taking Boise to OT showed. Utah State is...not.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
Michigan State (5-2) @ #1 Ohio State (7-0)
The upset could quite well happen, especially if Michigan State plays as well as they did in their stomping of Indiana last week. The only big question mark is how MSU back Javon Ringer will do against the OSU run defense, which ranks a stout #2 in the nation behind BC. Of course, the thing is that Ringer is BY FAR the best back OSU's faced to date, behind...Jerod Void?, so there's a chicken/egg situation. Plus Michigan State's defense hasn't been all too wonderful, so even if the Buckeyes D can only slow, not stop Ringer, OSU should be able to put up enough points to win. But of course, this year, if an upset can happen, there's a very good chance it will.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 1
Mississippi State (4-3) @ #5 West Virginia (5-1)
I'm not exactly sure how Mississippi State got 4 wins. Well, weak schedule and luck, duh. But anyway, WVU should put up a whole bunch of points, and MSU ain't keepin' pace.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 4
#6 Florida (4-2) @ #13 Kentucky (6-1)
Much like LSU was a good matchup for Kentucky, I think Florida is quite a bad one for the Wildcats. Florida's probably a better team on both sides of the ball, and the most certain thing in this game is that Florida will score their fair share of points against a Kentucky D that, while better than expected, probably can't handle an offense like the Gators'. And even in a shootout, even though I think Woodson may be a better QB than Tebow (and even if so, barely), I would trust the Florida defense to come up with the difference-making INT or two than the other way around.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
#20 Texas Tech (6-1) @ #8 Missouri (5-1)
POINTS!!!! Missouri's the better overall team, but in a shootout like this should degenerate to, it doesn't really matter. Still, I'll give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt since they did THAT to Nebraska, who's essentially a worse Texas Tech, and probably not 35 points worth of deficit worse.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 1
#9 USC (5-1) @ Notre Dame (1-6)
If this isn't a rebound win for USC that borders on an ugly blowout, then I just don't know anymore.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 4
#10 California (5-1) @ UCLA (4-2)
UCLA's a hard team to pin down - they can look explosive at times, but they're just so...disappointingly UCLAish. Still, if Nate Longshore is back at full strength, Cal should win fairly easily in what could become a shootout. If Kevin Riley's in, I still give Cal the edge, but it could essentially go either way. So I'll split the difference. LOGIC.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
Arkansas State (3-3) @ Middle Tennessee State (2-5)
ASU has a somewhat inexplicable loss to ULM (given how the Warhawks have performed otherwise this year), but have looked better by far than MTSU most of the year. Still, they're two teams who have pretty good offenses, so this could turn into a shootout that goes either way. Hooray the Sun Belt.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Miami (4-3) @ Florida State (4-2)
Oh jeez. A team that's sometimes good, sometimes bad at a team that's consistently meh. Florida State just bores me - they'll probably win 7 to 9 games, but they don't really do it on the basis of anything in particular - they're just kind of overall good enough. If Miami's offense shows up, they can beat "good enough", if it doesn't, expect an absolutely exciting 10-3 Florida State win. I'll go with the consistent team at home, but god, yawn.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
North Texas (1-5) @ Troy (4-2)
Well, UNT got a win, so all that yardage led to something. If Troy manages to lose this one, picking games in the Sun Belt is officially useless.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 4
4:00 PM
Bowling Green (3-3) @ Kent State (3-4)
Oh who the hell knows. Kent State seems like the better overall team, if not by much, though BGSU seems to have the best offense, and has the biggest win between the two in Minnesota. I'll give the home team the edge, why the hell not.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
Buffalo (3-4) @ Syracuse (1-6)
Wow, I'm actually doing it. One of these teams is passable, one of these teams is bad. I'm actually giving it to the better playing team, which is
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (4-2) @ Central Florida (3-3)
An intriguing one. Gus Malzahn's offense has taken, and Tulsa's starting to put up some crazy yardage and scoring numbers. However, UCF's Kevin Smith is probably the best player on the field, as he was the NCAA's rushing leader before being shut down by South Florida last week. Still, for all that, when I look at how offenses as a whole are doing, Tulsa seems to have a clear edge - this could go either way, but I see Kevin Smith getting his and Tulsa winning a 49-34 game or something like that.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
NC State (1-5) @ East Carolina (4-3)
Ehhhh. NCSU's somewhat unlucky, and ECU's lucky, so this is kind of a crapshoot. Oh what the hell, I'll say NC State finally starts turning this around, because come on, they're not THAT bad and these things should eventually even out.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (1-6)
FAU's a team that can compete with pretty much anyone except the Kentuckys, Oklahoma States, Texas Techs of the world - the guys with the crazy high powered offenses. ULL is not one of those teams.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 3
San Jose State (3-4) @ Fresno State (4-2)
Could be a neat little matchup - SJSU's had some big offensive days against the suspect defenses of the WAC. Unfortunately, Fresno seems like a legitimate team. SJSU has more of a chance than those two sentences suggest, but still - the Bulldogs should be the clear favorite.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
#25 Kansas (6-0) @ Colorado (4-3)
Kansas didn't really prove they were overrated or underrated against Kansas State, so...who knows with the Jayhawks. I'll give their apparently high-powered offense the edge, even if this is probably the best defense KU has faced to date. Hooray question marks!
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 1
Eastern Washington @ Brigham Young (4-2)
Well, at least this is easy to pick. But I'm so disappointed in you, BYU.
My Pick: Brigham Young
Confidence: 5
7:00 PM
Stanford (2-4) @ Arizona (2-5)
This really could go either way, as both teams are prone to having very bad weeks. It's just that Arizona's other weeks are good, while Stanford's are more...mediocre.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
Boise State (5-1) @ Louisiana Tech (2-4)
Louisiana Tech's very much more at the New Mexico State level than the Nevada level. This likely won't be pretty.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
Florida International (0-6) @ Louisiana-Monroe (1-5)
ULM hasn't lived up to preseason expectations, but they still should be way better than FIU, who has lived up to expectations that they'd be the worst team in I-A with flying colors.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 3
Houston (3-3) @ UAB (2-4)
UAB hasn't been quite as awful as expected, but I doubt they'll be able to handle Houston. The Cougars offense has days where they're as high-powered as ever, and if this is one, it could get ugly. And if not...it could still get somewhat ugly.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Ohio (3-4) @ Toledo (2-5)
Toledo's not all that bad - they're a perfectly average MAC team that could've used a break or two. While Ohio is...also a perfectly average MAC team. I'll give to the home team, because when in doubt, guess that the MAC will be as annoyingly parity-filled as possible.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 1
7:05 PM
Kansas State (4-2) @ Oklahoma State (4-3)
OK State seems to be over their early-season doldrums, which actually makes this interesting. I view the KSU defense as not good enough to stop OK State from scoring a good amount of points and making this a shootout, and I don't think K-State has the horses to run (or pass) with the Cowboys.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
#4 Oregon (5-1) @ Washington (2-4)
Washington's slowly sliding, and if the Huskies got beaten that easily by Arizona State, hoo boy. Though I have a weird gut feeling this'll be an upset, all rational thought says the Ducks will kick the shit out of U-Dub.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#15 Michigan (5-2) @ #17 Illinois (5-2)
This could very well wind up being a Michigan blowout that doesn't accurately reflect Illinois's talent level. I say that because based on the Purdue game, Michigan's back to being insanely great against the run. And what does Illinois do? Uh oh.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
Idaho (1-6) @ New Mexico State (3-4)
NMSU's been disappointing, as they've been part of the WAC second-class rather than having a breakthrough year. Still, there seems to be enough there where they should at least beat the Idahos of the conference. I hope. C'mon, the Aggies can pass.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
Virginia (6-1) @ Maryland (4-2)
Virginia just kind of keeps scraping by fairly unimpressively, while Maryland's more or less deserved to win when they've done so. For a change. UMD's probably the better team, but the matchup is in UVA's favor - they should be able to neutralize the run, and I'm not quite sold on Chris Turner being a QB that cane take over a game just yet. Still, I could be proven wrong.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 1
Tulane (1-5) @ SMU (1-5)
Tulane's been more competitive than expected, while SMU's...kind of depressed me in what I expected to be a breakout year. Both teams are still suspect enough where this could go either way, but Tulane RB Matt Forte's been great enough that he can carry the Green Wave to a win here.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
8:30 PM
New Mexico (4-2) @ San Diego State (2-4)
SDSU's one of the weak sisters of the league. Not that that means much with the MWC's parity, but since UNM beat Wyoming pretty handily, they should be able to take a team that, if nothing else, seems a good deal worse than Wyoming.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Auburn (5-2) @ #2 LSU (6-1)
Uh, yeah. Auburn's fine, but they're not all that great. Even if Brandon Cox has improved legitimately, I don't think this'll be a game where that'll be apparent at all.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Colorado State (0-6) @ UNLV (2-5)
You can do it, Colorado State. Come on. They're not all that bad a team, they just keep losing fairly close. They gotta beat a I-A team, right, and this is their best chance. Come on.
My Pick: Colorado State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (3-3) @ Marshall (0-6)
Kind of the same situation as CSU - Marshall should've gotten a win somewhere along the way. Still, Southern Miss is far from a UNLV - while the Golden Eagles have been quite a disappointment this year, they still have enough talent where they should win this one.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
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