Hopefully I'll have some recap stuff up by tonight, but til then a quick preview:
Toledo (3-6) @ Northern Illinois (5-4)
As disappointing as Garrett Wolfe's been in the last few games, Toledo's been disappointing all season. The MAC is insane and parity-filled, though, so pick a winner at your own risk.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Week 10 Rundown: Saturday and Sunday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Ball State (3-6) @ #1 Michigan (9-0)
Uhhhhh no.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Maryland (6-2) @ #15 Clemson (7-2)
Who knows with the ACC. Maryland's pretty extremely lucky to be 4-4, let alone 6-2. Plus with the game at Clemson, plus with the Tigers probably looking to re-establish themselves, this could be an ugly one.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Penn State (6-3) @ #18 Wisconsin (8-1)
Wisconsin didn't look impressive at all against Illinois, so there's a chance for the mild upset. Wisconsin's schedule has been pretty weak, although that huge win against Indiana looks a lot better now, and they've been doing kind of a mini-Michigan impression. Wisconsin's definitely vulnerable, but the only thing keeping me from picking the upset is a big one: I absolutely do not trust Anthony Morelli to not implode and throw 3 picks in anything resembling a big-game situation.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
#24 Missouri (7-2) @ Nebraska (6-2)
Two above-average teams capable of having bad days. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 1
Baylor (4-5) @ Texas Tech (5-4)
Could've been a fun shootout before Baylor QB Shawn Bell got knocked out for the year. Should be a blowout now, though.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
Virginia (4-5) @ Florida State (4-4)
I don't even know anymore. FSU's even more hopeless than Miami, but they still have defensive talent. And I really don't trust UVA to do anything against a defense with, you know, talent.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
Indiana (5-4) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Indiana is actually the way better team, as Minnesota may be the worst squad in the Big Ten. Although Northwestern and Michigan State's coaching staff are giving them a run. There's been lots of retardedness this season, so the Gophers still have a chance, but the Hoosiers should win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Pittsburgh (6-2) @ South Florida (5-3)
USF's been a one-man team, and that one man team didn't looks so great against Cincinnati, which doesn't bode well here. Pitt seems to be a pretty good team in need of a signature win.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
12:05 PM
Northwestern (2-7) @ Iowa (6-3)
Iowa's done nothing to instill confidence, but Northwestern? Very bad.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
#5 Florida (7-1) @ Vanderbilt (4-5)
Vanderbilt's wholly decent, and QB Chris Nickson can be a one-man team at times. However, I don't think the Commodores will be able to do much on either side of the ball. Even if Chris Nickson is good, Chris Leak will probably be better.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Mississippi State (2-7) @ Alabama (6-3)
Alabama's defense are their usual above-average selves, but there are still lots of questions about that offense. There are no questions about Mississippi State's offense, though. It's very bad.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-5) @ Akron (3-5)
BGSU has a shot, between having to prove themselves and the MAC's general wackiness, but on general principle, I can't pick a team that just lost to Temple.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-3) @ Buffalo (1-7)
Burning question: Is Buffalo the new Temple?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (5-3) @ Temple (1-8)
If they win THIS, then I give up.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 4
Navy (5-3) @ Duke (0-8)
Burning question: Is Duke the new Temple?
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
Ohio (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-7)
Burning question: Is...you get the gist. But man, what a murderer's row of crap teams. EMU's probably the best of the four, but Ohio is suddenly the best team in the MAC.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
Georgia (6-3) @ Kentucky (4-4)
Yeah, Kentucky sucks. There's really not much to say. UGA is only like, a third of a team, as all they have is a pretty good defense. And that's a third more than the Wildcats.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Kansas (4-5) @ Iowa State (3-6)
Two disappointing teams. Kansas has a QB situation in flux, Iowa State's played the harder schedule, and the Cyclones are at home, so that's who I'm picking.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Yep.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
Arkansas State (5-3) @ #6 Auburn (8-1)
Arkansas State just got shut out at Florida Atlantic, so uh...no.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-7) @ #11 Notre Dame (7-1)
I think Brady Quinn might, just might, be able to outduel Joe Dailey.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
San Diego State (1-6) @ Wyoming (4-5)
Yeah, that optimism for SDSU, sure didn't last. Wyoming is decent but inconsistent.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
TCU (5-2) @ UNLV (1-7)
Yawn. TCU's nothing special. UNLV, however, is nothing. At least this year.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
3:05 PM
Hawaii (6-2) @ Utah State (1-7)
PASSTASTIC!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#2 Ohio State (9-0) @ Illinois (2-7)
Illinois may make a run, but they'll blow it. Because, well, that's what Ron Zook does. But even so, they probably won't even get that far.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#9 LSU (6-2) @ #10 Tennessee (7-1)
Tennessee beat Cal, and after that they...they...they. LSU's vanished against anyone of note, but they've impressed in their 6 games against crap competition. Which is 5 more than Tennessee's impressed in. If LSU plays at 2/3 the level they did against anyone but Auburn or Florida, they should win easy.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Washington (4-5) @ #23 Oregon (6-2)
Washington's a lost cause without QB Isaiah Stanback. Oregon may have lost to Washington State, but Washington is no Washington State.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-4) @ Colorado (1-8)
Bad @ Worse. I'll go with bad.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-3)
MTSU's probably the best team in the Sun Belt. Whatever that's worth.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-1) @ Houston (6-3)
These two teams look to be C-USA's best. There's too much parity in C-USA for a team to go undefeated, and this is Tulsa's last big test, and Tulsa's undefeated, so...
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 1
Miami of Ohio (1-8) @ Western Michigan (6-2)
The records pretty much speak for themselves.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
Purdue (5-4) @ Michigan State (4-5)
PUCKER PUCKER PUCKER
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
East Carolina (4-4) @ Central Florida (2-6)
ECU's win over USM makes them the class of the paritylicious C-USA East. The Pirates should win, but again, paritylicious.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3) @ Troy (3-4)
ULL lost to MTSU, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the only out-of-conference wins of note for the Sun Belt. Troy? Meh.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Arizona State (5-3) @ Oregon State (5-3)
Arizona's upgraded their game to pretty good, as has Oregon State. But one of these teams is hungry, and one is due for a letdown.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arizona (3-5) @ Washington State (6-3)
Wazzou almost cracked my top 25, so I obviously think they're a pretty good team. Arizona's disappointed and played below their talent, so there's a chance for some regression to the mean since Wazzou's still vulnerable. Just a chance, though.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
5:05 PM
Nevada (5-3) @ Idaho (4-5)
Idaho's one of the better teams in the mess of the WAC past the big three teams. However, Nevada is one of those big three.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#25 BYU (6-2) @ Colorado State (4-4)
BYU's far and away the class of the MWC. Colorado State as of a month or so ago could've had a chance, but the Rams have just fallen apart in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidnece: 2
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-3) @ #4 Texas (8-1)
OK State's been on a tear lately, mostly thanks to QB Bobby Reid. Nebraska and Mizzou are better teams, but OK State's been on a hotter streak, so this could be the team to knock off Texas. Probably not, though.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
#7 USC (6-1) @ Stanford (0-8)
AND USC's angry. Uh oh. Also, Stanford is probably the new Temple.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 5
#20 Boston College (7-1) @ Wake Forest (7-1)
BC has some fluky wins over good teams. However, all Wake has is...a really low strength of schedule.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
#22 Georgia Tech (6-2) @ NC State (3-5)
Ooh, let's play "What does each team have?" again. Georgia Tech has Calvin Johnson. NC State has...lost all momentum.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (2-6) @ North Texas (2-6)
Ew.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Tulane (3-5) @ Marshall (3-5)
Two competitively below-average teams that have each had players blow up lately (Tulane QB Lester Ricard and Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw.) It's pretty much a push, so I'll just go with my gut.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
#13 Arkansas (7-1) @ South Carolina (5-3)
Yeah, the Razorbacks are due to be knocked down a few pegs. Gamecocks are as good a team as any to do so, outperforming but still losing to a Tennessee team that's probably much better than the Hogs.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
UCLA (4-4) @ #8 Cal (7-1)
Karl Dorrell has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. Not changin' here.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
#16 Oklahoma (6-2) @ #17 Texas A&M (8-1)
TAMU has shown some offensive versatility, first being a heavy running team and now winning on the arm and legs of QB Stephen McGee. OU's defense gave up a lot of yardage, but forced a lot of turnovers, against Mizzou, and I trust in the former to repeat more than the latter.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
#21 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Miami (5-3)
The letdown effect works against VT, but Miami's whole season works against the 'Canes. Miami actually performed pretty well against GT, but almost lost to Duke, so their inconsistency prevents me from picking up the upset.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 1
San Jose State (5-2) @ New Mexico State (2-6)
I still can't accept SJSU being bowl eligible, but they're facing a team whose two wins are against I-AAs, so...well, here we are.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Rice (3-5) @ UTEP (4-4)
UTEP's better than that record. Rice is surprisingly improved, which means they're as good as that 3-5.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (4-4) @ Memphis (1-7)
USM's their usual defense-oriented self. Memphis is...lost without DeAngelo Williams.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 4
12:00 PM
Ball State (3-6) @ #1 Michigan (9-0)
Uhhhhh no.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Maryland (6-2) @ #15 Clemson (7-2)
Who knows with the ACC. Maryland's pretty extremely lucky to be 4-4, let alone 6-2. Plus with the game at Clemson, plus with the Tigers probably looking to re-establish themselves, this could be an ugly one.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Penn State (6-3) @ #18 Wisconsin (8-1)
Wisconsin didn't look impressive at all against Illinois, so there's a chance for the mild upset. Wisconsin's schedule has been pretty weak, although that huge win against Indiana looks a lot better now, and they've been doing kind of a mini-Michigan impression. Wisconsin's definitely vulnerable, but the only thing keeping me from picking the upset is a big one: I absolutely do not trust Anthony Morelli to not implode and throw 3 picks in anything resembling a big-game situation.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
#24 Missouri (7-2) @ Nebraska (6-2)
Two above-average teams capable of having bad days. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 1
Baylor (4-5) @ Texas Tech (5-4)
Could've been a fun shootout before Baylor QB Shawn Bell got knocked out for the year. Should be a blowout now, though.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
Virginia (4-5) @ Florida State (4-4)
I don't even know anymore. FSU's even more hopeless than Miami, but they still have defensive talent. And I really don't trust UVA to do anything against a defense with, you know, talent.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 3
Indiana (5-4) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Indiana is actually the way better team, as Minnesota may be the worst squad in the Big Ten. Although Northwestern and Michigan State's coaching staff are giving them a run. There's been lots of retardedness this season, so the Gophers still have a chance, but the Hoosiers should win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
Pittsburgh (6-2) @ South Florida (5-3)
USF's been a one-man team, and that one man team didn't looks so great against Cincinnati, which doesn't bode well here. Pitt seems to be a pretty good team in need of a signature win.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 3
12:05 PM
Northwestern (2-7) @ Iowa (6-3)
Iowa's done nothing to instill confidence, but Northwestern? Very bad.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
#5 Florida (7-1) @ Vanderbilt (4-5)
Vanderbilt's wholly decent, and QB Chris Nickson can be a one-man team at times. However, I don't think the Commodores will be able to do much on either side of the ball. Even if Chris Nickson is good, Chris Leak will probably be better.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 3
Mississippi State (2-7) @ Alabama (6-3)
Alabama's defense are their usual above-average selves, but there are still lots of questions about that offense. There are no questions about Mississippi State's offense, though. It's very bad.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-5) @ Akron (3-5)
BGSU has a shot, between having to prove themselves and the MAC's general wackiness, but on general principle, I can't pick a team that just lost to Temple.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-3) @ Buffalo (1-7)
Burning question: Is Buffalo the new Temple?
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 4
Central Michigan (5-3) @ Temple (1-8)
If they win THIS, then I give up.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 4
Navy (5-3) @ Duke (0-8)
Burning question: Is Duke the new Temple?
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
Ohio (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-7)
Burning question: Is...you get the gist. But man, what a murderer's row of crap teams. EMU's probably the best of the four, but Ohio is suddenly the best team in the MAC.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 4
Georgia (6-3) @ Kentucky (4-4)
Yeah, Kentucky sucks. There's really not much to say. UGA is only like, a third of a team, as all they have is a pretty good defense. And that's a third more than the Wildcats.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 2
2:00 PM
Kansas (4-5) @ Iowa State (3-6)
Two disappointing teams. Kansas has a QB situation in flux, Iowa State's played the harder schedule, and the Cyclones are at home, so that's who I'm picking.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 2
Northwestern State @ Mississippi (2-7)
Yep.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
Arkansas State (5-3) @ #6 Auburn (8-1)
Arkansas State just got shut out at Florida Atlantic, so uh...no.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 5
North Carolina (1-7) @ #11 Notre Dame (7-1)
I think Brady Quinn might, just might, be able to outduel Joe Dailey.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
San Diego State (1-6) @ Wyoming (4-5)
Yeah, that optimism for SDSU, sure didn't last. Wyoming is decent but inconsistent.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 3
TCU (5-2) @ UNLV (1-7)
Yawn. TCU's nothing special. UNLV, however, is nothing. At least this year.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
3:05 PM
Hawaii (6-2) @ Utah State (1-7)
PASSTASTIC!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#2 Ohio State (9-0) @ Illinois (2-7)
Illinois may make a run, but they'll blow it. Because, well, that's what Ron Zook does. But even so, they probably won't even get that far.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
#9 LSU (6-2) @ #10 Tennessee (7-1)
Tennessee beat Cal, and after that they...they...they. LSU's vanished against anyone of note, but they've impressed in their 6 games against crap competition. Which is 5 more than Tennessee's impressed in. If LSU plays at 2/3 the level they did against anyone but Auburn or Florida, they should win easy.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 2
Washington (4-5) @ #23 Oregon (6-2)
Washington's a lost cause without QB Isaiah Stanback. Oregon may have lost to Washington State, but Washington is no Washington State.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3
Kansas State (5-4) @ Colorado (1-8)
Bad @ Worse. I'll go with bad.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (5-3)
MTSU's probably the best team in the Sun Belt. Whatever that's worth.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 2
Tulsa (7-1) @ Houston (6-3)
These two teams look to be C-USA's best. There's too much parity in C-USA for a team to go undefeated, and this is Tulsa's last big test, and Tulsa's undefeated, so...
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 1
Miami of Ohio (1-8) @ Western Michigan (6-2)
The records pretty much speak for themselves.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 2
Purdue (5-4) @ Michigan State (4-5)
PUCKER PUCKER PUCKER
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
East Carolina (4-4) @ Central Florida (2-6)
ECU's win over USM makes them the class of the paritylicious C-USA East. The Pirates should win, but again, paritylicious.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3) @ Troy (3-4)
ULL lost to MTSU, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the only out-of-conference wins of note for the Sun Belt. Troy? Meh.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
4:05 PM
Arizona State (5-3) @ Oregon State (5-3)
Arizona's upgraded their game to pretty good, as has Oregon State. But one of these teams is hungry, and one is due for a letdown.
My Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arizona (3-5) @ Washington State (6-3)
Wazzou almost cracked my top 25, so I obviously think they're a pretty good team. Arizona's disappointed and played below their talent, so there's a chance for some regression to the mean since Wazzou's still vulnerable. Just a chance, though.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
5:05 PM
Nevada (5-3) @ Idaho (4-5)
Idaho's one of the better teams in the mess of the WAC past the big three teams. However, Nevada is one of those big three.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
6:30 PM
#25 BYU (6-2) @ Colorado State (4-4)
BYU's far and away the class of the MWC. Colorado State as of a month or so ago could've had a chance, but the Rams have just fallen apart in conference play.
My Pick: BYU
Confidnece: 2
7:00 PM
Oklahoma State (5-3) @ #4 Texas (8-1)
OK State's been on a tear lately, mostly thanks to QB Bobby Reid. Nebraska and Mizzou are better teams, but OK State's been on a hotter streak, so this could be the team to knock off Texas. Probably not, though.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
#7 USC (6-1) @ Stanford (0-8)
AND USC's angry. Uh oh. Also, Stanford is probably the new Temple.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 5
#20 Boston College (7-1) @ Wake Forest (7-1)
BC has some fluky wins over good teams. However, all Wake has is...a really low strength of schedule.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 3
#22 Georgia Tech (6-2) @ NC State (3-5)
Ooh, let's play "What does each team have?" again. Georgia Tech has Calvin Johnson. NC State has...lost all momentum.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
Louisiana Tech (2-6) @ North Texas (2-6)
Ew.
My Pick: North Texas
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Tulane (3-5) @ Marshall (3-5)
Two competitively below-average teams that have each had players blow up lately (Tulane QB Lester Ricard and Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw.) It's pretty much a push, so I'll just go with my gut.
My Pick: Tulane
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
#13 Arkansas (7-1) @ South Carolina (5-3)
Yeah, the Razorbacks are due to be knocked down a few pegs. Gamecocks are as good a team as any to do so, outperforming but still losing to a Tennessee team that's probably much better than the Hogs.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
UCLA (4-4) @ #8 Cal (7-1)
Karl Dorrell has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. Not changin' here.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
#16 Oklahoma (6-2) @ #17 Texas A&M (8-1)
TAMU has shown some offensive versatility, first being a heavy running team and now winning on the arm and legs of QB Stephen McGee. OU's defense gave up a lot of yardage, but forced a lot of turnovers, against Mizzou, and I trust in the former to repeat more than the latter.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
#21 Virginia Tech (6-2) @ Miami (5-3)
The letdown effect works against VT, but Miami's whole season works against the 'Canes. Miami actually performed pretty well against GT, but almost lost to Duke, so their inconsistency prevents me from picking up the upset.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 1
San Jose State (5-2) @ New Mexico State (2-6)
I still can't accept SJSU being bowl eligible, but they're facing a team whose two wins are against I-AAs, so...well, here we are.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Rice (3-5) @ UTEP (4-4)
UTEP's better than that record. Rice is surprisingly improved, which means they're as good as that 3-5.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
SUNDAY
8:00 PM
Southern Miss (4-4) @ Memphis (1-7)
USM's their usual defense-oriented self. Memphis is...lost without DeAngelo Williams.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 4
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Week 10 Rundown: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#3 West Virginia (7-0) @ #12 Louisville (7-0)
As my rankings show, based on performance so far, I think WVU could kill Louisville. Brian Brohm's looked especially rusty, but one has to remember that he initially wasn't supposed to be back until this game. That, plus the game being at Louisville, make me think the Cardinals have a chance, but if the Louisville team that's showed up lately shows up here, hoo boy, won't be pretty.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Air Force (3-4) @ Army (3-6)
Air Force is better than that record, looking like one of the better teams in the Mountain West and only losing by 1 at Tennessee. Army's improved, but given where they were, that only means they're about as good as that 3-6 record. With two service schools, they're obviously going to play hard, but the Falcons are the better team.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
#3 West Virginia (7-0) @ #12 Louisville (7-0)
As my rankings show, based on performance so far, I think WVU could kill Louisville. Brian Brohm's looked especially rusty, but one has to remember that he initially wasn't supposed to be back until this game. That, plus the game being at Louisville, make me think the Cardinals have a chance, but if the Louisville team that's showed up lately shows up here, hoo boy, won't be pretty.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
Air Force (3-4) @ Army (3-6)
Air Force is better than that record, looking like one of the better teams in the Mountain West and only losing by 1 at Tennessee. Army's improved, but given where they were, that only means they're about as good as that 3-6 record. With two service schools, they're obviously going to play hard, but the Falcons are the better team.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
Feely Top 25: After Week 9
#1 Michigan (#1 LW)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 West Virginia (#4)
#4 Texas (#5)
#5 Florida (#6)
#6 Auburn (#8)
#7 USC (#3)
#8 Cal (#9)
#9 LSU (#10)
#10 Tennessee (#11)
#11 Notre Dame (#12)
#12 Louisville (#13)
#13 Arkansas (#14)
#14 Boise State (#15)
#15 Clemson (#7)
#16 Oklahoma (#16)
#17 Texas A&M (#21)
#18 Wisconsin (#17)
#19 Rutgers (#18)
#20 Boston College (#20)
#21 Virginia Tech (--)
#22 Georgia Tech (#24)
#23 Oregon (#23)
#24 Missouri (#22)
#25 BYU (--)
NOTES!
USC's still better than Cal. Sorry.
The teams that are #10-13 being #10-13 pretty much show how weak the second tier of teams is.
I'd still be high on Clemson if they lost, even with two conference losses, but such a horrible performance makes me fear what I fear the most: inconsistency.
Still have no idea what to make of Oklahoma.
Quickly getting high on Texas A&M. OFFENSIVE BALANCE!
I think Virginia Tech is better than BC right now, but BC beat VT so they are where they are.
BYU gets in over Wake, who got outgained by a team starting Joe Dailey.
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 West Virginia (#4)
#4 Texas (#5)
#5 Florida (#6)
#6 Auburn (#8)
#7 USC (#3)
#8 Cal (#9)
#9 LSU (#10)
#10 Tennessee (#11)
#11 Notre Dame (#12)
#12 Louisville (#13)
#13 Arkansas (#14)
#14 Boise State (#15)
#15 Clemson (#7)
#16 Oklahoma (#16)
#17 Texas A&M (#21)
#18 Wisconsin (#17)
#19 Rutgers (#18)
#20 Boston College (#20)
#21 Virginia Tech (--)
#22 Georgia Tech (#24)
#23 Oregon (#23)
#24 Missouri (#22)
#25 BYU (--)
NOTES!
USC's still better than Cal. Sorry.
The teams that are #10-13 being #10-13 pretty much show how weak the second tier of teams is.
I'd still be high on Clemson if they lost, even with two conference losses, but such a horrible performance makes me fear what I fear the most: inconsistency.
Still have no idea what to make of Oklahoma.
Quickly getting high on Texas A&M. OFFENSIVE BALANCE!
I think Virginia Tech is better than BC right now, but BC beat VT so they are where they are.
BYU gets in over Wake, who got outgained by a team starting Joe Dailey.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Week 9 Recap
Quick hits edition because I said so.
#1 Michigan 17, Northwestern 3
Another mediocre day by Henne, another good day by Hart, another absolutely motherfucking frightening day by the Michigan defense. Northwestern's leading rusher had 6 yards. A bit more trepidation about the Wolverines against Ohio State than in past weeks, as the loss of Manningham has really hurt the offense. Normally that doesn't matter, as teams need to beat Michigan using the pass and most QBs aren't up to the task, but if anyone is, it'd be Troy Smith.
#2 Ohio State 44, Minnesota 0
Though really, maybe not. In a huge blowout against an awful Minnesota team, Smith only had 183 and a TD. Though he probably didn't need to do any more. Basically, Indiana Game Troy Smith could beat the Michigan defense. This one? Probably not.
Oregon State 33, #3 USC 31
Ironically, USC looked better here than in a lot of their recent wins, mostly thanks to John David Booty's 406 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT.) 4 turnovers also killed the Trojans. And, you know, allowing 400 yards. I said I'd believe USC could lose when I see it, and now that I've seen it, I can downgrade them from "title contender" to "really good."
#5 Texas 35, Texas Tech 31
The only TTU line that matters: QB Graham Harrell: 42/62, 519, 3 TD, INT. Colt McCoy probably outperformed him though, matching Harrell in completion percentage (21/31), but throwing for 4 touchdowns and a pick. Texas is in USC territory: vulnerable, but the question is if they'll face anyone who can take advantage.
#6 Florida 21, Georgia 14
UGA held Florida to a relatively low 326 yards, but also turned the ball over 5 times. Whoops. Quite the ugly stat lines all over, except for Gators WR Andre Caldwell's rushing TD and receiving TD.
Virginia Tech 24, #7 Clemson 7
Oof. Clemson just got absolutely dominated by the Virginia Tech defense, only gaining 172 yards. Hokies RB Branden Ore both outgained and outscored Clemson, gaining 203 and scoring 2 TDs. I no longer know what to think in the ACC. The BCS bid will probably go to, like, Maryland.
#8 Auburn 23, Mississippi 17
Rebels QB Brent Schaeffer (8/16, 161, 1/2 TD/INT) had an awful day, as did most of the Ole Miss offense, but surprisingly the game remained close. Even if not statistically. Auburn still fails to impress me, either the stats or the score never really dominate.
#11 Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24
If not for 3 Syvelle Newton picks, the Gamecocks probably win this one. I really want to like you, Vols, just give me something to love.
#12 Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
I have nothing to say outside of over-the-top Notre Dame-bashing making fun of their overratedness.
#14 Arkansas 44, Louisiana-Monroe 10
Arkansas gave up 376 yards, but ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster also gave up 5 interceptions. Whoops.
#16 Oklahoma 26, #22 Missouri 10
Lots of dissonance between the score and the stats here. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel accounted for most of the Tigers' offense, gaining 359 of their 387 yards and scoring their long TD on the ground. Unfortunately, he also threw 3 picks, which was probably the difference in the game. On the OU side, Paul Thompson only threw for 127, but had 2 touchdowns and no picks. Meanwhile, RB Allen Patrick carried the load and ran it for 162. I'm still unsure of what to make of OU: the offense was efficient, but not overly productive, while the defense gave up a fair amount of yards, but forced 4 turnovers. Who knows. Sigh.
#17 Wisconsin 30, Illinois 24
So, 6 points is the handicap of having Ron Zook as your head coach.
#18 Rutgers 24, Connecticut 13
I give full credit/blame for this on the UConn offense and special teams. Well, the UConn quarterbacks and special teams. The one shining light for either team was backup Huskies RB Donald Brown running for 199 and 2 TD. So there's at least some optimism for UConn's future, as long as we recruit a quarterback.
Oklahoma State 41, #19 Nebraska 29
Pretty even, right down to one missed XP each. Both QBs threw well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both RBs ran well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both top WRs were productive, Nebraska's slightly more. More of an indication that OK State's improved greatly over the year than any great falling off by the Huskers.
#20 Boston College 41, Buffalo 0
Well, they finally got that undisputed, dominating win.
#21 Texas A&M 31, Baylor 21
The Aggies continued their overnight transition to a passing team, led by Stephen McGee's 215 yards and 2 TD through the air, along with 89 on the ground. Baylor looked pretty good, but with QB Shawn Bell being knocked out for the year, there goes the Bears' chance at bowl eligibility.
#24 Georgia Tech 30, Miami 23
Miami's offense has somewhat gotten its shit together, although it was mostly the two-man operation of QB Kyle Wright (246, TD, INT) and RB Javarris James (19 car, 133). GT was better though, as the Good Reggie Ball (188, 2 TD) showed up, and actually remembered to throw to Calvin Johnson. There's still some hope for Miami, although the fact that that now means "bowl eligibility" is pretty sad. I guess GT is now the default best team in the conference?
#25 Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 14
Jake Christensen (19/30, 256, 2/1 TD/INT) is a much better emergency QB than Jason Manson.
BYU 33, Air Force 14
Pretty one-sided. At least one thing is clear in the MWC: BYU's the top team. Now watch them lose next week.
Arizona State 26, Washington 23 (OT)
An actual good game (16/22, 170, 2 TD) for Rudy Carpenter! Washington? Meh. Running game seems decent, but with Stanback out, they probably won't have the QB consistency to regain their former form.
Tulane 42, Army 28
Tulane QB Lester Ricard's performance is worth noting: 33/43, 409 yards, 3 TD.
Temple 28, Bowling Green 14
=-O.
Vanderbilt 45, Duke 28
Vandy QB Chris Nickson could be a good one, and this could be the first of many great performances: 14/24, 250, 2 TD passing, 150 and 3 TD rushing.
East Carolina 20, Southern Miss 17 (OT)
USM only gained 180 yards. No offense, but that's almost, like, no offense.
Maryland 27, Florida State 24
And the Seminoles outgained UMD by 190 yards. I give up.
Indiana 46, Michigan State 21
And not even that close. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis: 15/26, 261 yards, 5/1 TD/INT. Yes, 5 touchdowns. Jeez.
Cal Poly 16, San Diego State 14
Well, that optimism for the Aztecs didn't last long.
#1 Michigan 17, Northwestern 3
Another mediocre day by Henne, another good day by Hart, another absolutely motherfucking frightening day by the Michigan defense. Northwestern's leading rusher had 6 yards. A bit more trepidation about the Wolverines against Ohio State than in past weeks, as the loss of Manningham has really hurt the offense. Normally that doesn't matter, as teams need to beat Michigan using the pass and most QBs aren't up to the task, but if anyone is, it'd be Troy Smith.
#2 Ohio State 44, Minnesota 0
Though really, maybe not. In a huge blowout against an awful Minnesota team, Smith only had 183 and a TD. Though he probably didn't need to do any more. Basically, Indiana Game Troy Smith could beat the Michigan defense. This one? Probably not.
Oregon State 33, #3 USC 31
Ironically, USC looked better here than in a lot of their recent wins, mostly thanks to John David Booty's 406 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT.) 4 turnovers also killed the Trojans. And, you know, allowing 400 yards. I said I'd believe USC could lose when I see it, and now that I've seen it, I can downgrade them from "title contender" to "really good."
#5 Texas 35, Texas Tech 31
The only TTU line that matters: QB Graham Harrell: 42/62, 519, 3 TD, INT. Colt McCoy probably outperformed him though, matching Harrell in completion percentage (21/31), but throwing for 4 touchdowns and a pick. Texas is in USC territory: vulnerable, but the question is if they'll face anyone who can take advantage.
#6 Florida 21, Georgia 14
UGA held Florida to a relatively low 326 yards, but also turned the ball over 5 times. Whoops. Quite the ugly stat lines all over, except for Gators WR Andre Caldwell's rushing TD and receiving TD.
Virginia Tech 24, #7 Clemson 7
Oof. Clemson just got absolutely dominated by the Virginia Tech defense, only gaining 172 yards. Hokies RB Branden Ore both outgained and outscored Clemson, gaining 203 and scoring 2 TDs. I no longer know what to think in the ACC. The BCS bid will probably go to, like, Maryland.
#8 Auburn 23, Mississippi 17
Rebels QB Brent Schaeffer (8/16, 161, 1/2 TD/INT) had an awful day, as did most of the Ole Miss offense, but surprisingly the game remained close. Even if not statistically. Auburn still fails to impress me, either the stats or the score never really dominate.
#11 Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24
If not for 3 Syvelle Newton picks, the Gamecocks probably win this one. I really want to like you, Vols, just give me something to love.
#12 Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
I have nothing to say outside of over-the-top Notre Dame-bashing making fun of their overratedness.
#14 Arkansas 44, Louisiana-Monroe 10
Arkansas gave up 376 yards, but ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster also gave up 5 interceptions. Whoops.
#16 Oklahoma 26, #22 Missouri 10
Lots of dissonance between the score and the stats here. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel accounted for most of the Tigers' offense, gaining 359 of their 387 yards and scoring their long TD on the ground. Unfortunately, he also threw 3 picks, which was probably the difference in the game. On the OU side, Paul Thompson only threw for 127, but had 2 touchdowns and no picks. Meanwhile, RB Allen Patrick carried the load and ran it for 162. I'm still unsure of what to make of OU: the offense was efficient, but not overly productive, while the defense gave up a fair amount of yards, but forced 4 turnovers. Who knows. Sigh.
#17 Wisconsin 30, Illinois 24
So, 6 points is the handicap of having Ron Zook as your head coach.
#18 Rutgers 24, Connecticut 13
I give full credit/blame for this on the UConn offense and special teams. Well, the UConn quarterbacks and special teams. The one shining light for either team was backup Huskies RB Donald Brown running for 199 and 2 TD. So there's at least some optimism for UConn's future, as long as we recruit a quarterback.
Oklahoma State 41, #19 Nebraska 29
Pretty even, right down to one missed XP each. Both QBs threw well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both RBs ran well, Nebraska's slightly more. Both top WRs were productive, Nebraska's slightly more. More of an indication that OK State's improved greatly over the year than any great falling off by the Huskers.
#20 Boston College 41, Buffalo 0
Well, they finally got that undisputed, dominating win.
#21 Texas A&M 31, Baylor 21
The Aggies continued their overnight transition to a passing team, led by Stephen McGee's 215 yards and 2 TD through the air, along with 89 on the ground. Baylor looked pretty good, but with QB Shawn Bell being knocked out for the year, there goes the Bears' chance at bowl eligibility.
#24 Georgia Tech 30, Miami 23
Miami's offense has somewhat gotten its shit together, although it was mostly the two-man operation of QB Kyle Wright (246, TD, INT) and RB Javarris James (19 car, 133). GT was better though, as the Good Reggie Ball (188, 2 TD) showed up, and actually remembered to throw to Calvin Johnson. There's still some hope for Miami, although the fact that that now means "bowl eligibility" is pretty sad. I guess GT is now the default best team in the conference?
#25 Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 14
Jake Christensen (19/30, 256, 2/1 TD/INT) is a much better emergency QB than Jason Manson.
BYU 33, Air Force 14
Pretty one-sided. At least one thing is clear in the MWC: BYU's the top team. Now watch them lose next week.
Arizona State 26, Washington 23 (OT)
An actual good game (16/22, 170, 2 TD) for Rudy Carpenter! Washington? Meh. Running game seems decent, but with Stanback out, they probably won't have the QB consistency to regain their former form.
Tulane 42, Army 28
Tulane QB Lester Ricard's performance is worth noting: 33/43, 409 yards, 3 TD.
Temple 28, Bowling Green 14
=-O.
Vanderbilt 45, Duke 28
Vandy QB Chris Nickson could be a good one, and this could be the first of many great performances: 14/24, 250, 2 TD passing, 150 and 3 TD rushing.
East Carolina 20, Southern Miss 17 (OT)
USM only gained 180 yards. No offense, but that's almost, like, no offense.
Maryland 27, Florida State 24
And the Seminoles outgained UMD by 190 yards. I give up.
Indiana 46, Michigan State 21
And not even that close. Hoosiers QB Kellen Lewis: 15/26, 261 yards, 5/1 TD/INT. Yes, 5 touchdowns. Jeez.
Cal Poly 16, San Diego State 14
Well, that optimism for the Aztecs didn't last long.
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