TUESDAY
7:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-7) @ Toledo (4-7)
Two teams that should've won last week, BGSU over Miami of Ohio and Toledo over Ball State. Toledo seems to be getting into the swing of things and building some momentum for next year. Bowling Green seems to be...basically just treading water. Bleh.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Monday, November 20, 2006
Feely Top 25: After Week 12
#1 Ohio State (12-0, #2 LW)
#2 Michigan (11-1, #1)
#3 Florida (10-1, #3)
#4 USC (9-1, #4)
#5 West Virginia (9-1, #5)
#6 LSU (9-2, #7)
#7 Texas (9-2, #6)
#8 Arkansas (10-1, #8)
#9 Oklahoma (9-2, #11)
#10 Louisville (9-1, #12)
#11 Notre Dame (10-1, #13)
#12 Wisconsin (11-1, #15)
#13 Auburn (10-2, #10)
#14 Boise State (11-0, #14)
#15 Tennessee (8-3, #16)
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2, #19)
#17 Rutgers (9-1, #9)
#18 Virginia Tech (9-2, #21)
#19 Wake Forest (9-2, #18)
#20 Cal (8-3, #17)
#21 Nebraska (8-3, #20)
#22 Boston College (9-2, #23)
#23 Texas A&M (8-3, #22)
#24 BYU (9-2, #24)
#25 Clemson (8-3, #25)
NOTES!
Again, which OSU would YOU rather lose to? Also, Western Carolina? Michigan's so easily the #2 team in the country that it's not funny. Well, it kind of is.
Arkansas's still more Tennessee than Florida in my eyes, sorry.
If OU-Texas was played again today, Oklahoma could kill them. The Sooners are just playing really, really well, and it doesn't seem like anyone is noticing.
Kind of wondering how I had Wisconsin that low...
Oh, Rutgers. I almost had them ahead of GT, but both teams are inconsistent and I think the good GT beats the good Rutgers and the bad GT murders the bad Rutgers.
The ACC is a mess.
Also Receiving Votes: Georgia, Hawaii, Penn State, TCU
#2 Michigan (11-1, #1)
#3 Florida (10-1, #3)
#4 USC (9-1, #4)
#5 West Virginia (9-1, #5)
#6 LSU (9-2, #7)
#7 Texas (9-2, #6)
#8 Arkansas (10-1, #8)
#9 Oklahoma (9-2, #11)
#10 Louisville (9-1, #12)
#11 Notre Dame (10-1, #13)
#12 Wisconsin (11-1, #15)
#13 Auburn (10-2, #10)
#14 Boise State (11-0, #14)
#15 Tennessee (8-3, #16)
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2, #19)
#17 Rutgers (9-1, #9)
#18 Virginia Tech (9-2, #21)
#19 Wake Forest (9-2, #18)
#20 Cal (8-3, #17)
#21 Nebraska (8-3, #20)
#22 Boston College (9-2, #23)
#23 Texas A&M (8-3, #22)
#24 BYU (9-2, #24)
#25 Clemson (8-3, #25)
NOTES!
Again, which OSU would YOU rather lose to? Also, Western Carolina? Michigan's so easily the #2 team in the country that it's not funny. Well, it kind of is.
Arkansas's still more Tennessee than Florida in my eyes, sorry.
If OU-Texas was played again today, Oklahoma could kill them. The Sooners are just playing really, really well, and it doesn't seem like anyone is noticing.
Kind of wondering how I had Wisconsin that low...
Oh, Rutgers. I almost had them ahead of GT, but both teams are inconsistent and I think the good GT beats the good Rutgers and the bad GT murders the bad Rutgers.
The ACC is a mess.
Also Receiving Votes: Georgia, Hawaii, Penn State, TCU
Week 12 Recap: The Rest
Utah 17, Air Force 14
A tremendously even game. Two pretty good teams. Yep. Shame AFA's probably losing at TCU and won't be bowl eligible.
Ohio 17, Akron 7
A tale of two ground games -- Ohio: 208, Akron: -4. And that's the game right there.
Arizona 37, Oregon 10
The heck? This was about an even game yardage-wise, though Arizona should've won it. The obvious difference in the game, however, is Oregon's 6 turnovers. Arizona RB Chris Henry had a huge day, running for 191 and 2 scores. Just, wow. Oregon's fading, obviously, while Arizona...well, where the hell was that all year?
UCLA 24, Arizona State 12
RUDY CARPENTER WATCH: 11/30, 149, INT. Sam Keller, still laughing.
Northern Illinois 31, Central Michigan 10
Garrett Wolfe: 33 car, 203 yards, 3 TD. Against the best team in the MAC. After being shut down by random mediocre MAC teams. Who knows.
Syracuse 20, Connecticut 14
Sigh. D.J. Hernandez went 19/29 passing, gaining 188 and 2 scores, but throwing 3 picks. Still, that stat line is probably improved from his year average. The Cuse run defense stepped up, holding Donald Brown to only 67 yards on 18 carries. Cuse was just the better team here, though not by a huge amount. Yep.
Rice 18, East Carolina 17
Rice won pretty handily here, even if the score doesn't reflect that. Ooh, ooh, quick pun: Rice, both the team and the food, are bowl-eligible. Still, I thought the transition from a wishbone offense was supposed to take 3 or 4 years. Amazingly well-done job by Todd Graham.
Florida State 28, Western Michigan 20
Well, maybe it wasn't all Jeff Bowden.
Fresno State 34, Idaho 0
Wow, Fresno State, what a fearsome mid-major.
Hawaii 54, San Jose State 17
COLT BRENNAN: 28/39, 402 yards, 5 TD, INT. Let the 2007 Heisman campaign begin.
Purdue 28, Indiana 19
Yep. Purdue got outgained and threw 4 picks, so you could say they pulled a Maryland special. Except, of course, that the Hoosiers turned it over 4 times themselves.
Minnesota 34, Iowa 24
Iowa outplayed Minnesota here, but 5 turnovers killed them. Then again, the Hawkeyes had 0 net rushing yards, so screw 'em.
Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Ugh, a brutal game. 5 turnovers by each team, random nutty defensive and special team touchdowns, just...bleh. Teams were about even overall, though.
Virginia 17, Miami 7
No fluke, the Canes just got outplayed. This should be the nail in the coffin.
Penn State 17, Michigan State 13
Michigan State finishing the season by choking en route to a loss is just...beautiful.
North Carolina 23, NC State 9
Another game where the loser should've won, though, like Iowa, NC State sucked bad enough that you really can't complain.
TCU 52, San Diego State 0
The yardage battle: TCU 624, SDSU 87. Ow.
SMU 34, Tulsa 24
And nothing fluky about it. SMU's bowl-eligible for the first time since the Death Penalty. Applause.
A tremendously even game. Two pretty good teams. Yep. Shame AFA's probably losing at TCU and won't be bowl eligible.
Ohio 17, Akron 7
A tale of two ground games -- Ohio: 208, Akron: -4. And that's the game right there.
Arizona 37, Oregon 10
The heck? This was about an even game yardage-wise, though Arizona should've won it. The obvious difference in the game, however, is Oregon's 6 turnovers. Arizona RB Chris Henry had a huge day, running for 191 and 2 scores. Just, wow. Oregon's fading, obviously, while Arizona...well, where the hell was that all year?
UCLA 24, Arizona State 12
RUDY CARPENTER WATCH: 11/30, 149, INT. Sam Keller, still laughing.
Northern Illinois 31, Central Michigan 10
Garrett Wolfe: 33 car, 203 yards, 3 TD. Against the best team in the MAC. After being shut down by random mediocre MAC teams. Who knows.
Syracuse 20, Connecticut 14
Sigh. D.J. Hernandez went 19/29 passing, gaining 188 and 2 scores, but throwing 3 picks. Still, that stat line is probably improved from his year average. The Cuse run defense stepped up, holding Donald Brown to only 67 yards on 18 carries. Cuse was just the better team here, though not by a huge amount. Yep.
Rice 18, East Carolina 17
Rice won pretty handily here, even if the score doesn't reflect that. Ooh, ooh, quick pun: Rice, both the team and the food, are bowl-eligible. Still, I thought the transition from a wishbone offense was supposed to take 3 or 4 years. Amazingly well-done job by Todd Graham.
Florida State 28, Western Michigan 20
Well, maybe it wasn't all Jeff Bowden.
Fresno State 34, Idaho 0
Wow, Fresno State, what a fearsome mid-major.
Hawaii 54, San Jose State 17
COLT BRENNAN: 28/39, 402 yards, 5 TD, INT. Let the 2007 Heisman campaign begin.
Purdue 28, Indiana 19
Yep. Purdue got outgained and threw 4 picks, so you could say they pulled a Maryland special. Except, of course, that the Hoosiers turned it over 4 times themselves.
Minnesota 34, Iowa 24
Iowa outplayed Minnesota here, but 5 turnovers killed them. Then again, the Hawkeyes had 0 net rushing yards, so screw 'em.
Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Ugh, a brutal game. 5 turnovers by each team, random nutty defensive and special team touchdowns, just...bleh. Teams were about even overall, though.
Virginia 17, Miami 7
No fluke, the Canes just got outplayed. This should be the nail in the coffin.
Penn State 17, Michigan State 13
Michigan State finishing the season by choking en route to a loss is just...beautiful.
North Carolina 23, NC State 9
Another game where the loser should've won, though, like Iowa, NC State sucked bad enough that you really can't complain.
TCU 52, San Diego State 0
The yardage battle: TCU 624, SDSU 87. Ow.
SMU 34, Tulsa 24
And nothing fluky about it. SMU's bowl-eligible for the first time since the Death Penalty. Applause.
Week 12 Recap: The Top 25
#2 Ohio State 42, #1 Michigan 39
...wow. Ohio State won this one statistically, though if there were a fifth quarter, who knows. Where to start, where to start. Can't give enough credit to both teams, especially the Buckeyes, though.
-I was right about the Ohio State run defense: Mike Hart ran for 142 and 3 TD, gaining 6.2 yards per carry.
-But, inexplicably when you look at the statistics, the Michigan run defense was even more vulnerable. It's probably skewed by the big run (though really, the fact that the big run EXISTED proves the point), but Antonio Pittman ran for 139 and an amazingly impressive 7.7 YPC.
-To state the obvious, Troy Smith is one motherfucking big game quarterback. He had a rough patch, but this is probably his most statistically impressive game of the year, ESPECIALLY when you consider the competition. 29/41, 316, 4 TD, INT.
-Michigan...well, looking at Mike Hart's stats, you can't really say they got taken out of their offensive gameplan, but Chad Henne had a better day than probably anyone could imagine: 21/35, 267, 2 TD. Just, again, the run defense oddly let them down.
I could go on, but basically, I want to see it again. There are so many unanswered questions there has to be a sequel. Can the Michigan run defense be this vulnerable again? Or was it just the OSU offensive line, which is probably the best one Michigan's faced all year? Can Troy Smith do it again, and even if he can't, can Chad Henne? This was just tremendous. It's a complete outlier from Michigan's season, but I still give Ohio State all the credit in the world. And Michigan too, it's amazing that they were able to compete in a game where the Buckeyes put up 42 points. Just...wow.
#3 Florida 62, Western Carolina 0
In contrast, scheduling this game takes away any right Florida has to bitch if they don't leapfrog Michigan. I said the same thing about Auburn two years ago, and it's holds here. C'mon, at least schedule a MAC team. Or San Jose State. Or SOMEONE. God. Florida still has a better case than USC, though. Which OSU would YOU rather lose to, Ohio State or Oregon State? God.
#4 USC 23, #17 Cal 9
Cal just got schooled. This was more of a defensive showcase for the Trojans, forcing three Cal turnovers and holding the Golden Bears to only 275 yards. The most impressive USC line was Booty's: 18/31, 238, 2 TD. But don't worry, the Trojans will have a big day against the Notre Dame "defense."
#5 West Virginia 45, Pittsburgh 27
Let's compare rushing yards, kids:
WEST VIRGINIA: 437
PITTSBURGH: -1
About says it all. Tyler Palko still had a good game, throwing for 341 and 2 TD, but it pales in comparison to these monster statlines:
Steve Slaton: 23 car, 215 yards, 2 TD
Pat White: PASSING: 11/16, 204, 2 TD RUSHING: 22 car, 220 yards, 2 TD
That Pitt offense is capable, but that defense...sheesh.
#7 LSU 23, Mississippi 20 (OT)
This looks like one of those fluky Maryland specials, as Ole Miss only gained 195 yards and generally sucked bad. Not really much to say. LSU, in fact, showed they were the much better team here, the score just doesn't reflect that.
#8 Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 14
Oh wow, there's a chink in the armor. MSU outplayed the Backs here, only losing because of TDs off a pick and on a return. Darren McFadden hurt his...second-place Heisman voting chances, going for only 84 yards on 26 carries. If they got LSU on the road and not at home, hoo boy, that could be an ugly depantsing for this here team. As it is, I'll think it over and reserve judgment for later.
Cincinnati 30, #9 Rutgers 11
Well, after seeing the UConn game, you knew the Rutgers offense could have bad days, but here? This bad? Oof. The offensive balance was also thrown off for Rutgers, but being down so much so early will do that. Still, Ray Rice only had 54 yards on 18 carries, so it's not like they had to abandon anything productive. I had enough faith in Schiano that he wouldn't let his team experience a letdown, but well, it seems to be a year of them, and I can't really say I'm all THAT surprised.
#10 Auburn 22, Alabama 15
Bama should've won this one, outgaining the Tigers by 103, but they were -3 in turnovers. John Parker Wilson carried the day for the Crimson Tide offense, throwing for 252, 2 TD, and unfortunately, one pick. Between Kenny Irons and Brad Lester, Auburn was able to run for about 130, but all in all, the Crimson Tide was the better team here. They've had a bunch of hard luck, so look for an Alabama rebound in 2007.
#11 Oklahoma 36, Baylor 10
Oh shit. The Sooners are BACK. They held Baylor to...negative 48 rushing yards. Wow.
#12 Louisville 31, South Florida 8
Brian Brohm had a nice day, going 19/33 for 274 and 2 TD. On the USF side, Matt Grothe wasn't that bad either, going 15/31 for 237, a TD and a pick. A nice solid win for Louisville in which, hey, they got their revenge, and Grothe showed enough to give Bulls fans a lot of hope for the future.
#13 Notre Dame 41, Army 9
Another "big" game for Brady Quinn. And, wow, I'm actually impressed that UND held Army to only 150 yards. And I'm not sure what that says about the Irish. Not much, probably.
#14 Boise State 49, Utah State 10
Looks like the system means a lot more than the running back, as something named Brent Denton ran for 125 and 2 TD. Same story as the UND game really: lots of yardage, impressive defensive performance against a bad offense. But I guess that fearsome UNC, Stanford, and service academies schedule is what makes the Irish a national title contender.
#15 Wisconsin 35, Buffalo 3
Big day for the Badgers, unsurprisingly. Offense had a big day, mostly through the air, with Tyler Donovan throwing for 308 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio on 16/26 passing. Buffalo, not very good.
#16 Tennessee 39, Vanderbilt 10
Vandy QB Chris Nickson had one of his worse days, throwing for only 97, a TD, and 2 picks. In contrast, the Tennessee offense pretty much had their way against the Commodores. Erik Ainge had a great day, throwing for 266 and 2 TD on 21/26 passing, while LaMarcus Coker had 10 carries for 126 yards and 2 scores. Big day.
#21 Virginia Tech 27, #18 Wake Forest 6
So whenever I decide someone is the best team in the ACC, they lose. So, just so I can be right: DUKE: the best team in the ACC. The Wake running game got shut down, while VT surprisingly got things done through the air, as Sean Glennon went 14/21 for 252 and 2 TD. Yep. That ACC. So much delicious parity.
#19 Georgia Tech 49, Duke 21
GT has their second team in pretty quickly, so Duke's passing offense being able to do something doesn't really mean much. Yep. Georgia Tech, better than Duke.
#23 Boston College 38, Maryland 16
YES! Maryland actually had a decent day, still getting outgained, but only 373-331. But 4 turnovers buried the Terps' hopes of a win. Just...phew. So much for that.
#24 BYU 42, New Mexico 17
I look at UNM putting up 418 yards, and wonder how BYU pulled this one off. And under BYU, it says 653. Oh. Okay. BYU, a much better team. If the Lobos put up 418, BCS-conference teams may have a field day, but BYU is the class of the Mountain West. Well, obviously. They've already won the conference and all.
...wow. Ohio State won this one statistically, though if there were a fifth quarter, who knows. Where to start, where to start. Can't give enough credit to both teams, especially the Buckeyes, though.
-I was right about the Ohio State run defense: Mike Hart ran for 142 and 3 TD, gaining 6.2 yards per carry.
-But, inexplicably when you look at the statistics, the Michigan run defense was even more vulnerable. It's probably skewed by the big run (though really, the fact that the big run EXISTED proves the point), but Antonio Pittman ran for 139 and an amazingly impressive 7.7 YPC.
-To state the obvious, Troy Smith is one motherfucking big game quarterback. He had a rough patch, but this is probably his most statistically impressive game of the year, ESPECIALLY when you consider the competition. 29/41, 316, 4 TD, INT.
-Michigan...well, looking at Mike Hart's stats, you can't really say they got taken out of their offensive gameplan, but Chad Henne had a better day than probably anyone could imagine: 21/35, 267, 2 TD. Just, again, the run defense oddly let them down.
I could go on, but basically, I want to see it again. There are so many unanswered questions there has to be a sequel. Can the Michigan run defense be this vulnerable again? Or was it just the OSU offensive line, which is probably the best one Michigan's faced all year? Can Troy Smith do it again, and even if he can't, can Chad Henne? This was just tremendous. It's a complete outlier from Michigan's season, but I still give Ohio State all the credit in the world. And Michigan too, it's amazing that they were able to compete in a game where the Buckeyes put up 42 points. Just...wow.
#3 Florida 62, Western Carolina 0
In contrast, scheduling this game takes away any right Florida has to bitch if they don't leapfrog Michigan. I said the same thing about Auburn two years ago, and it's holds here. C'mon, at least schedule a MAC team. Or San Jose State. Or SOMEONE. God. Florida still has a better case than USC, though. Which OSU would YOU rather lose to, Ohio State or Oregon State? God.
#4 USC 23, #17 Cal 9
Cal just got schooled. This was more of a defensive showcase for the Trojans, forcing three Cal turnovers and holding the Golden Bears to only 275 yards. The most impressive USC line was Booty's: 18/31, 238, 2 TD. But don't worry, the Trojans will have a big day against the Notre Dame "defense."
#5 West Virginia 45, Pittsburgh 27
Let's compare rushing yards, kids:
WEST VIRGINIA: 437
PITTSBURGH: -1
About says it all. Tyler Palko still had a good game, throwing for 341 and 2 TD, but it pales in comparison to these monster statlines:
Steve Slaton: 23 car, 215 yards, 2 TD
Pat White: PASSING: 11/16, 204, 2 TD RUSHING: 22 car, 220 yards, 2 TD
That Pitt offense is capable, but that defense...sheesh.
#7 LSU 23, Mississippi 20 (OT)
This looks like one of those fluky Maryland specials, as Ole Miss only gained 195 yards and generally sucked bad. Not really much to say. LSU, in fact, showed they were the much better team here, the score just doesn't reflect that.
#8 Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 14
Oh wow, there's a chink in the armor. MSU outplayed the Backs here, only losing because of TDs off a pick and on a return. Darren McFadden hurt his...second-place Heisman voting chances, going for only 84 yards on 26 carries. If they got LSU on the road and not at home, hoo boy, that could be an ugly depantsing for this here team. As it is, I'll think it over and reserve judgment for later.
Cincinnati 30, #9 Rutgers 11
Well, after seeing the UConn game, you knew the Rutgers offense could have bad days, but here? This bad? Oof. The offensive balance was also thrown off for Rutgers, but being down so much so early will do that. Still, Ray Rice only had 54 yards on 18 carries, so it's not like they had to abandon anything productive. I had enough faith in Schiano that he wouldn't let his team experience a letdown, but well, it seems to be a year of them, and I can't really say I'm all THAT surprised.
#10 Auburn 22, Alabama 15
Bama should've won this one, outgaining the Tigers by 103, but they were -3 in turnovers. John Parker Wilson carried the day for the Crimson Tide offense, throwing for 252, 2 TD, and unfortunately, one pick. Between Kenny Irons and Brad Lester, Auburn was able to run for about 130, but all in all, the Crimson Tide was the better team here. They've had a bunch of hard luck, so look for an Alabama rebound in 2007.
#11 Oklahoma 36, Baylor 10
Oh shit. The Sooners are BACK. They held Baylor to...negative 48 rushing yards. Wow.
#12 Louisville 31, South Florida 8
Brian Brohm had a nice day, going 19/33 for 274 and 2 TD. On the USF side, Matt Grothe wasn't that bad either, going 15/31 for 237, a TD and a pick. A nice solid win for Louisville in which, hey, they got their revenge, and Grothe showed enough to give Bulls fans a lot of hope for the future.
#13 Notre Dame 41, Army 9
Another "big" game for Brady Quinn. And, wow, I'm actually impressed that UND held Army to only 150 yards. And I'm not sure what that says about the Irish. Not much, probably.
#14 Boise State 49, Utah State 10
Looks like the system means a lot more than the running back, as something named Brent Denton ran for 125 and 2 TD. Same story as the UND game really: lots of yardage, impressive defensive performance against a bad offense. But I guess that fearsome UNC, Stanford, and service academies schedule is what makes the Irish a national title contender.
#15 Wisconsin 35, Buffalo 3
Big day for the Badgers, unsurprisingly. Offense had a big day, mostly through the air, with Tyler Donovan throwing for 308 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio on 16/26 passing. Buffalo, not very good.
#16 Tennessee 39, Vanderbilt 10
Vandy QB Chris Nickson had one of his worse days, throwing for only 97, a TD, and 2 picks. In contrast, the Tennessee offense pretty much had their way against the Commodores. Erik Ainge had a great day, throwing for 266 and 2 TD on 21/26 passing, while LaMarcus Coker had 10 carries for 126 yards and 2 scores. Big day.
#21 Virginia Tech 27, #18 Wake Forest 6
So whenever I decide someone is the best team in the ACC, they lose. So, just so I can be right: DUKE: the best team in the ACC. The Wake running game got shut down, while VT surprisingly got things done through the air, as Sean Glennon went 14/21 for 252 and 2 TD. Yep. That ACC. So much delicious parity.
#19 Georgia Tech 49, Duke 21
GT has their second team in pretty quickly, so Duke's passing offense being able to do something doesn't really mean much. Yep. Georgia Tech, better than Duke.
#23 Boston College 38, Maryland 16
YES! Maryland actually had a decent day, still getting outgained, but only 373-331. But 4 turnovers buried the Terps' hopes of a win. Just...phew. So much for that.
#24 BYU 42, New Mexico 17
I look at UNM putting up 418 yards, and wonder how BYU pulled this one off. And under BYU, it says 653. Oh. Okay. BYU, a much better team. If the Lobos put up 418, BCS-conference teams may have a field day, but BYU is the class of the Mountain West. Well, obviously. They've already won the conference and all.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
MICHIGAN-OHIO STATE
So. It's a huge fuckin' game. Here we go:
I'll start with Michigan. In every game, Michigan has been able to accomplish two things: running the ball, and stopping the opponent from doing so. Two things result from this:
1) The gameplan is designed for close wins. This is why I don't really buy the argument for higher margins of victory making OSU's season more impressive. Of course it does, their whole strategy is to blow the other team out of the water.
2) It's on the opposing quarterback to beat Michigan.
Now, is Troy Smith that quarterback? Brady Quinn isn't, but the Notre Dame offense has allowed twice as many sacks as Ohio State's (and USC's, since I have a feeling I'll be repeating this stat in the BCS title game), 26 to 13. The answer is that Troy Smith definitely COULD be. Only two games that he's had prove otherwise:
vs. Penn State: 12/22, 115, TD, 2 INT
@ Illinois: 13/23, 108, INT
In the Penn State game, Smith was able to at least pull off enough big plays to win the game handily. But will those big plays be there against Michigan? If they weren't against Illinois, and they weren't, then they may not be.
Ohio State is #10 in the country in rushing yards allowed/game, but let's take a look at how the best running backs have done against the Buckeyes:
Northern Illinois's Garrett Wolfe: 172 yards, 6.6 yards per carry
Texas's Selvin Young: 94 yards, 8.5 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 135 yards, 5.6 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 48 yards, 4.4 YPC
Illinois's Pierre Thomas: 58 yards, 7.3 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 57 yards, 4.8 YPC
The amounts may not be high, but those yards per carry aren't a good sign. It's suggesting that Ohio State's low rushing yards allowed aren't due to a good run defense, but the fact that teams need to play catch-up through the air.
For the record, let's look at how many of the same backs did against Michigan, who gives up 1.3 yards a carry to Ohio State's 3.2:
Notre Dame's Darius Walker: 25 yards, 2.5 YPC
Wisconsin's Pat Hill Jr.: 54 yards, 2.7 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 33 yards, 2.5 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 17 yards, 1.9 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 6 yards, 0.9 YPC
Michigan's holding running backs to less yards, often overall and especially per carry, even though their gameplan allows more opportunities for the opposition to run the ball than Ohio State's. And on a side note, the fact that Michigan's overall numbers are so much lower, factoring in that Michigan had to play Wisconsin (another "rushing and defense" team and a bit of a mini-Michigan) where OSU didn't makes things that much more impressive.
So, what have we learned?
-Michigan has more consistently implemented their gameplan than Ohio State has been able to.
-Michigan has a gameplan focused on running the ball and not allowing the other team to.
-Ohio State has a vulnerable run defense when their opposition actually has the opportunity to run the ball with a good running back.
-Michigan has stopped many of the same backs from accomplishing anything.
And this is why I pick Michigan.
Now, to play devil's advocate. In order for Ohio State to win, I believe they need to jump out to an early lead, get momentum on their side, and force Michigan to deviate from their run-based offensive gameplan. The likeliest way this could happen is if Michigan beats themselves. If the Wolverines are too amped up, if the Wolverines make a mistake early resulting in a failed drive or a turnover, and OSU is able to score in one of their first two or so drives, I could see the game being lost for the Wolverines right there. I'm not sure how much of a factor the death of Bo Schembechler will be -- it should be extra motivation for the Wolverines, although it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the team will be even more excited and amped up because someone died.
So, in conclusion, this is...well, obviously, quite the intriguing game. Based on statistics and really, just who I think the better team is, I give Michigan about a 75% chance of winning. However, could I see the scenario outlined above, where Michigan gets the yips and loses the game before the end of the first quarter? Easily. Hence that 25 percent. So, finally:
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 2
And, just for shits and giggles...
Michigan 24, Ohio State 13
Why not?
I'll start with Michigan. In every game, Michigan has been able to accomplish two things: running the ball, and stopping the opponent from doing so. Two things result from this:
1) The gameplan is designed for close wins. This is why I don't really buy the argument for higher margins of victory making OSU's season more impressive. Of course it does, their whole strategy is to blow the other team out of the water.
2) It's on the opposing quarterback to beat Michigan.
Now, is Troy Smith that quarterback? Brady Quinn isn't, but the Notre Dame offense has allowed twice as many sacks as Ohio State's (and USC's, since I have a feeling I'll be repeating this stat in the BCS title game), 26 to 13. The answer is that Troy Smith definitely COULD be. Only two games that he's had prove otherwise:
vs. Penn State: 12/22, 115, TD, 2 INT
@ Illinois: 13/23, 108, INT
In the Penn State game, Smith was able to at least pull off enough big plays to win the game handily. But will those big plays be there against Michigan? If they weren't against Illinois, and they weren't, then they may not be.
Ohio State is #10 in the country in rushing yards allowed/game, but let's take a look at how the best running backs have done against the Buckeyes:
Northern Illinois's Garrett Wolfe: 172 yards, 6.6 yards per carry
Texas's Selvin Young: 94 yards, 8.5 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 135 yards, 5.6 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 48 yards, 4.4 YPC
Illinois's Pierre Thomas: 58 yards, 7.3 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 57 yards, 4.8 YPC
The amounts may not be high, but those yards per carry aren't a good sign. It's suggesting that Ohio State's low rushing yards allowed aren't due to a good run defense, but the fact that teams need to play catch-up through the air.
For the record, let's look at how many of the same backs did against Michigan, who gives up 1.3 yards a carry to Ohio State's 3.2:
Notre Dame's Darius Walker: 25 yards, 2.5 YPC
Wisconsin's Pat Hill Jr.: 54 yards, 2.7 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 33 yards, 2.5 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 17 yards, 1.9 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 6 yards, 0.9 YPC
Michigan's holding running backs to less yards, often overall and especially per carry, even though their gameplan allows more opportunities for the opposition to run the ball than Ohio State's. And on a side note, the fact that Michigan's overall numbers are so much lower, factoring in that Michigan had to play Wisconsin (another "rushing and defense" team and a bit of a mini-Michigan) where OSU didn't makes things that much more impressive.
So, what have we learned?
-Michigan has more consistently implemented their gameplan than Ohio State has been able to.
-Michigan has a gameplan focused on running the ball and not allowing the other team to.
-Ohio State has a vulnerable run defense when their opposition actually has the opportunity to run the ball with a good running back.
-Michigan has stopped many of the same backs from accomplishing anything.
And this is why I pick Michigan.
Now, to play devil's advocate. In order for Ohio State to win, I believe they need to jump out to an early lead, get momentum on their side, and force Michigan to deviate from their run-based offensive gameplan. The likeliest way this could happen is if Michigan beats themselves. If the Wolverines are too amped up, if the Wolverines make a mistake early resulting in a failed drive or a turnover, and OSU is able to score in one of their first two or so drives, I could see the game being lost for the Wolverines right there. I'm not sure how much of a factor the death of Bo Schembechler will be -- it should be extra motivation for the Wolverines, although it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the team will be even more excited and amped up because someone died.
So, in conclusion, this is...well, obviously, quite the intriguing game. Based on statistics and really, just who I think the better team is, I give Michigan about a 75% chance of winning. However, could I see the scenario outlined above, where Michigan gets the yips and loses the game before the end of the first quarter? Easily. Hence that 25 percent. So, finally:
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 2
And, just for shits and giggles...
Michigan 24, Ohio State 13
Why not?
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