Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Whoops.
Florida obviously deserved the win, if I still stick by them not deserving to be there. Hindsight's 50/50 and all. I still hate Urban Meyer, and I hate Thom Brennaman even more. I'll do a bowl rundown sometime within the next while, then season recaps. If anyone has any comments, ideas, suggestions, etc. about off-season content that can be done before previewing the next season, by all means let them be known.
Sunday, January 07, 2007
BOWLNANZA!: The BCS Title Game
#3 Florida (12-1) vs. #1 Ohio State (12-0)
Florida was one of the three national title contenders coming out of the SEC, but most figured the Gators' difficult schedule would prevent them from making it there. And, well, it probably should've. There was the loss to Auburn, but games against Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, and of course, South Carolina were pretty close statistically, if not in score during the former two. The offense, #21 in yardage nationally, is led by senior QB Chris Leak (2729 yards, 22/13 TD/INT) and frosh QB Tim Tebow (430 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD.) The Gators don't really have any outstanding running backs, but between, Tebow, RB Deshawn Wynn, and speedy frosh WR Percy Harvin, the Gators rank top-35 in rushing yards per game. The defense is stout, at #6 in scoring and #10 in yardage.
There were concerns about Ohio State's young defense, but voters had enough confidence to vote the Buckeyes the preseason #1. Four months later, there's still there. Heisman-winning QB Troy Smith didn't have an eye-popping season statistically, but was efficient as any QB in the country (2507 yards, 30/5 TD/INT.) Plus, after Smith's games against Texas (17/26, 269, 2 TD) and Michigan (29/41, 316, 4/1 TD/INT,) it's pretty safe to say he's the best big-game quarterback in the NCAA. Oh, and the Buckeyes have some good running backs in Antonio Pittman (1171, 13 TD) and Michigan-gashing superfrosh Chris Wells (567, 7 TD,) and big-play WR Ted Ginn (781, 9 TD.) There's an embarrassment of riches on that side of the ball. Defensively, OSU's lived up to their potential, at #13 in yards allowed, and with a scoring defense better than everyone except Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes have a top-2o rushing defense, but as I said in my OSU-Michigan breakdown, I have some concern about the team against upper-echelon running backs. But the Ohio State defense is balanced, as they're also tied for #30 against the pass.
Michigan looks worse after that Rose Bowl loss, but if Ohio State can do what they did there, I think they can take Florida. Ohio State outgained everyone they faced this year, and really, the only team close to that dominant during the regular season was Michigan. Remember, we're one blocked field goal away from...well, probably having LSU or Wisconsin leapfrog Michigan into the national title game. Anyway, Florida definitely has a shot, and I could see Percy Harvin gashing that defense, but in the end, I'd be surprised if it was a blowout, and I'd be surprised if it was close. 31-21 Buckeyes sounds about right.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Florida was one of the three national title contenders coming out of the SEC, but most figured the Gators' difficult schedule would prevent them from making it there. And, well, it probably should've. There was the loss to Auburn, but games against Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, and of course, South Carolina were pretty close statistically, if not in score during the former two. The offense, #21 in yardage nationally, is led by senior QB Chris Leak (2729 yards, 22/13 TD/INT) and frosh QB Tim Tebow (430 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD.) The Gators don't really have any outstanding running backs, but between, Tebow, RB Deshawn Wynn, and speedy frosh WR Percy Harvin, the Gators rank top-35 in rushing yards per game. The defense is stout, at #6 in scoring and #10 in yardage.
There were concerns about Ohio State's young defense, but voters had enough confidence to vote the Buckeyes the preseason #1. Four months later, there's still there. Heisman-winning QB Troy Smith didn't have an eye-popping season statistically, but was efficient as any QB in the country (2507 yards, 30/5 TD/INT.) Plus, after Smith's games against Texas (17/26, 269, 2 TD) and Michigan (29/41, 316, 4/1 TD/INT,) it's pretty safe to say he's the best big-game quarterback in the NCAA. Oh, and the Buckeyes have some good running backs in Antonio Pittman (1171, 13 TD) and Michigan-gashing superfrosh Chris Wells (567, 7 TD,) and big-play WR Ted Ginn (781, 9 TD.) There's an embarrassment of riches on that side of the ball. Defensively, OSU's lived up to their potential, at #13 in yards allowed, and with a scoring defense better than everyone except Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes have a top-2o rushing defense, but as I said in my OSU-Michigan breakdown, I have some concern about the team against upper-echelon running backs. But the Ohio State defense is balanced, as they're also tied for #30 against the pass.
Michigan looks worse after that Rose Bowl loss, but if Ohio State can do what they did there, I think they can take Florida. Ohio State outgained everyone they faced this year, and really, the only team close to that dominant during the regular season was Michigan. Remember, we're one blocked field goal away from...well, probably having LSU or Wisconsin leapfrog Michigan into the national title game. Anyway, Florida definitely has a shot, and I could see Percy Harvin gashing that defense, but in the end, I'd be surprised if it was a blowout, and I'd be surprised if it was close. 31-21 Buckeyes sounds about right.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Saturday, January 06, 2007
BOWLNANZA!: The GMAC Bowl
Ohio (9-4) vs. Southern Miss (8-5)
In ex-Nebraska coach Frank Solich's second year, Ohio's probably been the biggest surprise in the MAC, going from 4-7 to a MAC East title. Much like Nebraska under Solich, Ohio's getting it done with the run, evidenced by the leading rusher (Kalvin McRae, 1215) gaining more yards than the starting QB (Austin Everson, 1181.) Still, the Bobcats' offense has been more or less the opposite of effective, finishing just outside the bottom 10 in yardage and easily being the worst of any bowl team. The defense is a better story, however, finishing #31 in yardage and just outside the top 20 against the pass. Ohio may be lucky to be here, but there are less deserving teams.
Southern Miss is usually a defensive power year-in year-out, but the Golden Eagles have been somewhat mediocre on that side of the ball, finishing at only #40 in yardage. USM's main strength has been the play of freshman RB Damion Fletcher, who racked up 1330 yards (2nd among freshmen) en route to 9 touchdowns. Still, that defense is getting things together -- after being torched by Florida, Tulsa, Houston, and Virginia Tech early in the year, USM's held their last three opponents under 300 yards, including annihilating the Tulane D and holding them to 85.
USM's defense, again, is getting things together, and with the ineffective Ohio offense, that matchup probably won't be pretty. Ohio could win a defensive struggle, but while the Bobcats' defense isn't half bad, their strength is against the pass, and USM's star is a running back. Fletcher will probably be the player of the game, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't have a huge game by any means. This could be one of those games where neither offense gets anything done, either on the field or for the viewer. But I could be wrong.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 2
In ex-Nebraska coach Frank Solich's second year, Ohio's probably been the biggest surprise in the MAC, going from 4-7 to a MAC East title. Much like Nebraska under Solich, Ohio's getting it done with the run, evidenced by the leading rusher (Kalvin McRae, 1215) gaining more yards than the starting QB (Austin Everson, 1181.) Still, the Bobcats' offense has been more or less the opposite of effective, finishing just outside the bottom 10 in yardage and easily being the worst of any bowl team. The defense is a better story, however, finishing #31 in yardage and just outside the top 20 against the pass. Ohio may be lucky to be here, but there are less deserving teams.
Southern Miss is usually a defensive power year-in year-out, but the Golden Eagles have been somewhat mediocre on that side of the ball, finishing at only #40 in yardage. USM's main strength has been the play of freshman RB Damion Fletcher, who racked up 1330 yards (2nd among freshmen) en route to 9 touchdowns. Still, that defense is getting things together -- after being torched by Florida, Tulsa, Houston, and Virginia Tech early in the year, USM's held their last three opponents under 300 yards, including annihilating the Tulane D and holding them to 85.
USM's defense, again, is getting things together, and with the ineffective Ohio offense, that matchup probably won't be pretty. Ohio could win a defensive struggle, but while the Bobcats' defense isn't half bad, their strength is against the pass, and USM's star is a running back. Fletcher will probably be the player of the game, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't have a huge game by any means. This could be one of those games where neither offense gets anything done, either on the field or for the viewer. But I could be wrong.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence (out of 5): 2
BOWLNANZA!: The International Bowl
Cincinnati (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (8-4)
Not much was expected of Cincinnati this year. The Bearcats were sliding in C-USA, and a move to the tougher Big East brought a 4-7 record. More of the same was forecasted, especially with games at Virginia Tech and Ohio State on the out of conference slate. Well, Cincy may have lost those games, but they still finished a surprising fourth in the Big East, and did it by skill, rather than luck. Coach Mark Dantonio parlayed this into the Michigan State job, but Cincy may have upgraded by hiring Brian Kelly, who'll be coaching this game, away from MAC champions Central Michigan. I've often criticized Cincinnati for being the most boring team alive, and statistically, that's pretty true. About the most notable thing is a top-3o rushing defense, and other than that, the Bearcats do nothing excellently or horribly.
Western Michigan was a surprise team in the MAC last year, and after graduating two second-round picks (WR Greg Jennings and TE Tony Scheffler), the Broncos have somewhat surprisingly kept it up again this year. The offense is led by QB Ryan Cubit, son of coach Bill, who had a decent year with 1954 yards and a 15/11 TD/INT ratio. RB Mark Bonds also ran for 1082, but he's been demoted to third-string for the game for disciplinary reasons and likely won't see the field. No matter, the Broncos strength is their defense, ranked a surprising 11th in yardage, and the unit that memorably derailed Garrett Wolfe's Heisman hopes.
WMU may be missing their starting running back, but Brian Kelly apparently having yet to know his starting running back's name isn't a good sign, at least for this game. Or maybe he's just as bored by the Bearcats as everyone else. The Broncos' top-ten rush defense probably means the game will be up to the two-headed Cincinnati QB, and, well, one of them (Dustin Grutza) doesn't even have more TDs than picks (9 vs. 13.) Under Dantonio, it'd be a crapshoot, and I might still lean towards Western, but with the Broncos being a solid team and the Bearcats' coach yet to get settled in, I'm going for the moderate upset, Mark Bonds or not.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 1
Not much was expected of Cincinnati this year. The Bearcats were sliding in C-USA, and a move to the tougher Big East brought a 4-7 record. More of the same was forecasted, especially with games at Virginia Tech and Ohio State on the out of conference slate. Well, Cincy may have lost those games, but they still finished a surprising fourth in the Big East, and did it by skill, rather than luck. Coach Mark Dantonio parlayed this into the Michigan State job, but Cincy may have upgraded by hiring Brian Kelly, who'll be coaching this game, away from MAC champions Central Michigan. I've often criticized Cincinnati for being the most boring team alive, and statistically, that's pretty true. About the most notable thing is a top-3o rushing defense, and other than that, the Bearcats do nothing excellently or horribly.
Western Michigan was a surprise team in the MAC last year, and after graduating two second-round picks (WR Greg Jennings and TE Tony Scheffler), the Broncos have somewhat surprisingly kept it up again this year. The offense is led by QB Ryan Cubit, son of coach Bill, who had a decent year with 1954 yards and a 15/11 TD/INT ratio. RB Mark Bonds also ran for 1082, but he's been demoted to third-string for the game for disciplinary reasons and likely won't see the field. No matter, the Broncos strength is their defense, ranked a surprising 11th in yardage, and the unit that memorably derailed Garrett Wolfe's Heisman hopes.
WMU may be missing their starting running back, but Brian Kelly apparently having yet to know his starting running back's name isn't a good sign, at least for this game. Or maybe he's just as bored by the Bearcats as everyone else. The Broncos' top-ten rush defense probably means the game will be up to the two-headed Cincinnati QB, and, well, one of them (Dustin Grutza) doesn't even have more TDs than picks (9 vs. 13.) Under Dantonio, it'd be a crapshoot, and I might still lean towards Western, but with the Broncos being a solid team and the Bearcats' coach yet to get settled in, I'm going for the moderate upset, Mark Bonds or not.
My Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 1
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
BOWLNANZA!: The Sugar Bowl
#4 LSU (10-2) vs. #13 Notre Dame (10-2)
LSU was viewed as one of three national title contenders from the SEC in the preseason; while they lost to the other two (Auburn and Florida) in the beginning half of the season, the Tigers nonetheless played up to the level of expectations, winning their last 6 games and defeating surprise top-15 team in Arkansas to cap the regular season. The Tigers are as well-rounded as anyone in the country, as LSU boasts an offense that's top-10 in scoring and top-20 in yardage, while the defense is in the top 5 of both of those categories. And if the offense played as well as anyone in the country, and the defense played as well as anyone in the country, the stats show that LSU had about the best season of anyone in the country. The Tigers were the much more consistent team in the Auburn game, but came just short in a 7-3 loss, and the Florida game was essentially handed over via turnovers. The only game all year that LSU was outgained in was, ironically, that one they won against Arkansas, and even that was only a 32-yard differential. We could have easily seen LSU as the team facing Ohio State in the national title game.
Notre Dame was seen, pretty universally, as a top-3 team in the preseason, and pretty much a lock for the BCS. And after a disappointing 10-2 season that saw the Irish get humbled against Michigan and USC, Brady Quinn miss out on the Heisman he had locked up in August, and UND struggle to beat UCLA and Michigan State, the team was forced to settle for...a BCS bid. Oh. The offense is what makes Notre Dame go, as the Irish are #12 in scoring and #22 in yardage. As for the defense, the offense is what makes Notre Dame go. There's not much to say about Notre Dame's season that wasn't mentioned in that sentence above. The Irish lost by 20 or more in each of their true tests (although the USC game was close statistically), and their biggest win is...Georgia Tech? Penn State featuring often-imploding Anthony Morelli in HIS first test? Come-from-behind efforts against underwhelming Michigan State and UCLA? I could go on. Well, no I couldn't, they don't really have anything else close to a big win. Okay, maybe Navy or Purdue, I guess. I don't know.
Notre Dame's offense is what's going to keep them in this, since that's where they hold the advantage over LSU. Except for, you know, LSU scoring more points and gaining more yards than Notre Dame while playing a SEC schedule instead of Army and Stanford. Hoo boy. And that Notre Dame defense isn't stopping anyone, so expect that trend to continue. Plus that LSU defense is even better than Michigan, especially against the pass (LSU: 145.5 pass yards/game, Michigan: 211.1,) and we all saw how that Michigan game went. On the "blowout potential" scale, this is probably ranks between Louisville-Wake and OU-Boise. But seeing as Boise actually pulled off the win, I suppose UND has a chance. Just don't bet on it.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence (out of 5): 3
LSU was viewed as one of three national title contenders from the SEC in the preseason; while they lost to the other two (Auburn and Florida) in the beginning half of the season, the Tigers nonetheless played up to the level of expectations, winning their last 6 games and defeating surprise top-15 team in Arkansas to cap the regular season. The Tigers are as well-rounded as anyone in the country, as LSU boasts an offense that's top-10 in scoring and top-20 in yardage, while the defense is in the top 5 of both of those categories. And if the offense played as well as anyone in the country, and the defense played as well as anyone in the country, the stats show that LSU had about the best season of anyone in the country. The Tigers were the much more consistent team in the Auburn game, but came just short in a 7-3 loss, and the Florida game was essentially handed over via turnovers. The only game all year that LSU was outgained in was, ironically, that one they won against Arkansas, and even that was only a 32-yard differential. We could have easily seen LSU as the team facing Ohio State in the national title game.
Notre Dame was seen, pretty universally, as a top-3 team in the preseason, and pretty much a lock for the BCS. And after a disappointing 10-2 season that saw the Irish get humbled against Michigan and USC, Brady Quinn miss out on the Heisman he had locked up in August, and UND struggle to beat UCLA and Michigan State, the team was forced to settle for...a BCS bid. Oh. The offense is what makes Notre Dame go, as the Irish are #12 in scoring and #22 in yardage. As for the defense, the offense is what makes Notre Dame go. There's not much to say about Notre Dame's season that wasn't mentioned in that sentence above. The Irish lost by 20 or more in each of their true tests (although the USC game was close statistically), and their biggest win is...Georgia Tech? Penn State featuring often-imploding Anthony Morelli in HIS first test? Come-from-behind efforts against underwhelming Michigan State and UCLA? I could go on. Well, no I couldn't, they don't really have anything else close to a big win. Okay, maybe Navy or Purdue, I guess. I don't know.
Notre Dame's offense is what's going to keep them in this, since that's where they hold the advantage over LSU. Except for, you know, LSU scoring more points and gaining more yards than Notre Dame while playing a SEC schedule instead of Army and Stanford. Hoo boy. And that Notre Dame defense isn't stopping anyone, so expect that trend to continue. Plus that LSU defense is even better than Michigan, especially against the pass (LSU: 145.5 pass yards/game, Michigan: 211.1,) and we all saw how that Michigan game went. On the "blowout potential" scale, this is probably ranks between Louisville-Wake and OU-Boise. But seeing as Boise actually pulled off the win, I suppose UND has a chance. Just don't bet on it.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence (out of 5): 3
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