Ball State (7-5) vs. Rutgers (7-5)
If Mike Teel doesn't decide to throw this one away via interception, it could get ugly. Ball State has a high-powered offense, but that's probably been somewhat bolstered by playing MAC and Nebraska defenses, a far cry from Rutgers' top-fifteen unit, #2 against the pass. Expect Ray Rice to run at will. Yawn.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
BOWLNANZA 2008: The Orange Bowl
#8 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #9 Kansas (11-1)
Virginia Tech's had an interesting little year. They remained highly ranked for most of the year's start, despite getting absolutely annihilated by LSU and not looking all that impressive in quite a few of their wins. Then they just had enough, finishing the regular season by dominating Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia (although they didn't look overly great in the ACC title game against BC). As for Kansas, the conventional wisdom is pretty much spot on - the offense is excellent, the defense is pretty good, and they're still somewhat of an unknown because of a weak schedule. Wait, an elite opportunistic defense and an inconsistent offense facing a team that looks excellent on paper but has lots of questions about their level of competition? Thank God I'm making this pick after watching the Sugar Bowl.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Virginia Tech's had an interesting little year. They remained highly ranked for most of the year's start, despite getting absolutely annihilated by LSU and not looking all that impressive in quite a few of their wins. Then they just had enough, finishing the regular season by dominating Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia (although they didn't look overly great in the ACC title game against BC). As for Kansas, the conventional wisdom is pretty much spot on - the offense is excellent, the defense is pretty good, and they're still somewhat of an unknown because of a weak schedule. Wait, an elite opportunistic defense and an inconsistent offense facing a team that looks excellent on paper but has lots of questions about their level of competition? Thank God I'm making this pick after watching the Sugar Bowl.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 3
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
BOWLNANZA 2008: The Fiesta Bowl
#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #10 West Virginia (10-2)
Weird note of the day: Oklahoma has the better scoring and yardage offense, while West Virginia takes both categories on defense. And honestly, if it wasn't for WVU's shocking implosion against Pitt, this would be no contest - for 11 games, West Virginia marched down the field mostly at will, regardless of who was across the field. But the question is, can they do it against that Oklahoma defense? And the answer is yes. The Sooners have faced a number of high-powered offenses, and outside of North Texas, haven't really shut down any. Tulsa was kept somewhat in check, as was OK State, but Texas Tech, Missouri, and yes, the almighty Baylor, all broke 400 yards fairly easily. Combine that with an underrated Mountaineer D, and God help me, I'm picking an interim coach to win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Weird note of the day: Oklahoma has the better scoring and yardage offense, while West Virginia takes both categories on defense. And honestly, if it wasn't for WVU's shocking implosion against Pitt, this would be no contest - for 11 games, West Virginia marched down the field mostly at will, regardless of who was across the field. But the question is, can they do it against that Oklahoma defense? And the answer is yes. The Sooners have faced a number of high-powered offenses, and outside of North Texas, haven't really shut down any. Tulsa was kept somewhat in check, as was OK State, but Texas Tech, Missouri, and yes, the almighty Baylor, all broke 400 yards fairly easily. Combine that with an underrated Mountaineer D, and God help me, I'm picking an interim coach to win.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
BOWLNANZA 2008: New Year's Day
I'll have my schedule down next year, I swear.
OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
OUTBACK BOWL: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Kind of a blah game between two good teams. I've found the Vols to be somewhat overrated, and Wisconsin to be underrated during the year, and that Tennessee secondary is still very bad. Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, since that's what they do, and they'll probably also be able to pass enough to win.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 2
COTTON BOWL: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Darren McFadden was somehow ruled eligible despite mysteriously having a new SUV; unless he's allowed to drive it through holes in the offensive line, the best he can hope for is helping keep the game close.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 3
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Florida vs. Michigan
I realize Lloyd Carr is the Coach of the Year, but come on. I feel bad for this crop of Michigan seniors, who have somehow become the most accomplished group to never really accomplish anything.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 4
GATOR BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
I like UVA, but I think they'll be stunned that teams outside of the ACC have actual offenses.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3
ROSE BOWL: Illinois vs. USC
I'd like to, but not against a run defense that good.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
SUGAR BOWL: Georgia vs. Hawaii
As much as memories of Georgia/Boise State a few years ago stand out in my head, I'm picking the upset. It'd be one thing if this was a team that could match the Warriors in a shootout, but I don't think Georgia's that team. Hawaii hasn't been spectacular this year, but Colt Brennan also hasn't been 100% - he's had time to heal, Knowshon Moreno can only run it so much, and in this year, it almost has to happen.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
Monday, December 31, 2007
BOWLNANZA 2007: New Year's Eve
Quick hits, since it's been a long weekend.
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
THE ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
Cal's been 7-5ish at best, but I still think they can pull this off - Air Force has been lucky with their defense, as they've given up about a touchdown less than their yardage would suggest, and they haven't faced offensive talent like Cal's.
My Pick: California
Confidence: 2
THE HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Fresno's had pretty much one impressive win - Kansas State, and even that, ehhh. Past that, it's...San Jose State? And the Bulldogs have gotten lucky to win some of those games against the dregs of the WAC. These not-really-very-good teams sometimes surprise in bowl games, but I'll trust in interim GT coach Jon Tenuta.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
THE SUN BOWL
#12 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Without Dennis Dixon, nothing to see here. USF had that string of 3 losses, but they're still really good, people.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
THE MUSIC CITY BOWL
#18 Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
FSU can still field a team? As seen by that #18 ranking, I still find Kentucky to be a dangerous team, especially with Andre' Woodson, and especially here, against a team without one of its top cornerbacks. A likely win has become a mismatch.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
THE INSIGHT BOWL
Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Indiana's a pretty non-descript team all around, storyline of playing for their late coach aside, while Oklahoma State's all offense, no defense, with an absolutely horrible secondary. This could devolve into a fun shootout, and in pretty much any case, expect IU's Kellen Lewis to have a big day, likely en route to an emotional win.
My Pick: Indiana
Confidence: 2
THE CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
#21 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Two frustrating teams. Clemson's up to their usual boom-or-bust antics game by game, while Auburn was looking like a pretty good team until the wheels absolutely fell off against Georgia. This is a close one in that it likely depends on, in a 50/50 crapshoot, which team shows up, so I'll go with the one that's shown the most consistency over recent years.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 1
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