THURSDAY
7:30 PM
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP:
Central Michigan (8-4) vs. Ohio (9-3)
Ohio keeps getting breaks, CMU seems more legit. If Brian Kelly had gotten the ISU job, I'd be more worried here, but I think the Chippewas and their coaching staff will be focused.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 2
FRIDAY
8:00 PM
C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP:
Southern Miss (8-4) @ Houston (9-3)
An intriguing matchup, as both teams are playing well, with USM dominating on defense and Houston's high-powered offense humming along. Normally I'd take the defense, and USM did beat Houston at home earlier in the year, but I just love Kevin Kolb, and this game ain't in Hattiesburg.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 1
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Connecticut (4-7) @ #6 Louisville (10-1)
Well, I suppose there's suspense about if UConn fires Edsall if we lose this game. I have no insight into that, though.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP:
#19 Wake Forest (10-2) vs. #24 Georgia Tech (9-3)
I give Georgia Tech a chance if Reggie Ball gets injured. I shouldn't say that, since GT sometimes shows up, but I'm far from betting on it.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
Army (3-8) @ Navy (8-3)
If Paul Johnson winds up taking the Alabama job or something, there could be some distraction and thus some suspense here, but Army's just outclassed.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
3:00 PM
Stanford (1-10) @ #21 Cal (8-3)
Stanford winning would be a bigger miracle than The Play. If only Stanford could play Duke in some sort of horrific bowl game from Hell.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 4
Louisiana Tech (3-9) @ New Mexico State (3-8)
NMSU has a wacky passtastic offense, is at home, and is riding the momentum of their first I-A win in two years. Watch out, LA Tech. Though the Bulldogs are a fair enough team and could win just as easy.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 1
3:30 PM
Air Force (4-7) @ TCU (9-2)
Air Force is pretty damn good for a 4-7 team, but TCU's just smashing people left and right and generally looking like the team they were expected to be in the preseason.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
4:00 PM
Fresno State (4-7) @ San Jose State (7-4)
Amazingly intriguing, as each team pretty much has done how the other was expected to. Fresno has more talent and is on more of a hot streak, so I assume the Bulldogs attempt to make their season seem respectable here. As for SJSU, who the hell knows. They're apparently good and it's very confusing.
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
4:30 PM
#4 USC (10-1) @ UCLA (6-5)
USC's...much better. Logic can sometimes be thrown out in rivalry games, but this would be stretching it.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3
5:00 PM
Louisana-Monroe (3-8) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5)
Sun Belt-tastic! There's all that SBC parity and again, rivalry game, but ULL's better. ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster could have another one of those freaky games like Kansas where he outgains the entire opposing team, however.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP:
#9 Arkansas (10-2) vs. #3 Florida (11-1)
The Arkansas running game redeemed itself last week after a shit performance against Mississippi State. Florida's still been beating people handily though, at least everywhere except the score. I give Arkansas a chance, but Florida's been a better team and they should show it here.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
Troy (6-5) @ Florida International (0-11)
Troy gets the SBC title here. I almost put "if they win", but, well.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 3
7:45 PM
#14 Rutgers (10-1) @ #13 West Virginia (9-2)
Pretty much a crapshoot, actually. USF's a good team, though, and better than Cincinnati, so I give WVU the edge there. Rutgers can be run on, at least by UConn, so I'm not sure that they can stop the WVU running game, especially in Morgantown. Again, it's about even, which is...crazy, but I just have more faith in West Virginia. Really, Rutgers?
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP:
#16 Nebraska (9-3) vs. #7 Oklahoma (10-2)
Ooh, intrigue. The OU defense sputtered against OK State, and Nebraska's offense is throwing as well as it's ever been. Then again, Nebraska lost to Oklahoma State, so who knows. OU's hotter, and I have faith in the defense to rebound, so I give them the better chance to win what should be a close one.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 1
Colorado State (4-7) @ San Diego State (2-9)
Two teams playing at about the same level, and kind of cold at the moment, CSU more so. That, plus the home-field advantage, makes me pick the Aztecs in this crapshoot.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
SUNDAY
12:05 AM
Oregon State (8-4) @ #25 Hawaii (10-2)
Like Christmas in July, it's the Hawaii Bowl in week 14. Oregon State kept it close at Boise before getting blown out, and expect the same here. COLT BRENNAN LASER LIGHTSHOW!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
Monday, November 27, 2006
Hot News
From the coaching carousel:
IN!
Texas co-DC Gene Chizik, replacing Dan McCarney at Iowa State.
Cincinnati HC Mark Dantonio, replacing John L. Smith at Michigan State.
OUT!
Arizona HC Dirk Koetter
Alabama HC Mike Shula
NC State HC Chuck Amato
Miami HC Larry Coker
After the forthcoming week 14 preview, I'll probably get started on the individual bowl previews. My next big project will be determining the luckiest and unluckiest teams in the nation during 2006, so that'll hopefully provide some insight into who unfairly got fired and who was a bad hire once this whole mess sorts itself out.
IN!
Texas co-DC Gene Chizik, replacing Dan McCarney at Iowa State.
Cincinnati HC Mark Dantonio, replacing John L. Smith at Michigan State.
OUT!
Arizona HC Dirk Koetter
Alabama HC Mike Shula
NC State HC Chuck Amato
Miami HC Larry Coker
After the forthcoming week 14 preview, I'll probably get started on the individual bowl previews. My next big project will be determining the luckiest and unluckiest teams in the nation during 2006, so that'll hopefully provide some insight into who unfairly got fired and who was a bad hire once this whole mess sorts itself out.
Feely Top 25: After Week 13
#1 Ohio State (12-0, #1 LW)
#2 Michigan (11-1, #2)
#3 Florida (11-1, #3)
#4 USC (10-1, #4)
#5 LSU (10-2, #6)
#6 Louisville (10-1, #10)
#7 Oklahoma (10-2, #9)
#8 Wisconsin (11-1, #12)
#9 Arkansas (10-2, #8)
#10 Boise State (12-0, #14)
#11 Notre Dame (10-2, #11)
#12 Auburn (10-2, #13)
#13 West Virginia (9-2, #5)
#14 Rutgers (10-1, #17)
#15 Texas (9-3, #7)
#16 Nebraska (9-3, #21)
#17 Virginia Tech (10-2, #18)
#18 Wake Forest (10-2, #19)
#19 Tennessee (9-3, #15)
#20 Cal (8-3, #20)
#21 Texas A&M (9-3, #23)
#22 Georgia (8-4, --)
#23 BYU (10-2, #24)
#24 Georgia Tech (9-3, #16)
#25 Hawaii (10-2, --)
NOTES!
USC's been the most vulnerable in their wins of the 2 through 4 teams. And, well, Michigan didn't schedule Western Carolina.
Man, Wisconsin got hosed.
Arkansas looked as impressive in the LSU loss as they have all year, and a lot of teams in the 11-15 range didn't do much, so I didn't penalize the Razorbacks that much.
I really want to see Boise-Notre Dame. After this week, I don't know who would win, I just know it would be a heckuva lot of fun.
13-15 were hard to figure out. Texas has the most talent, but they've just fallen off a cliff and who knows with McCoy now. I still think WVU will beat Rutgers, and essentially consider the Mountaineers a one-loss team, since the WVU-Louisville game was essentially a tossup with a strong advantage for WV.
I give Nebraska a pretty good shot against OU, they're playing well.
Ugh, the ACC.
Tennessee should've lost to Kentucky, and their performance was about as good as losing to the Wildcats.
Georgia's a much better team now than the one that lost those 4 games. I could see a case for BYU over them, but not GT (obviously) or Hawaii.
Georgia Tech's worthless. They show up from time to time, but God, what a waste of Calvin Johnson.
Nothing can stop the Colt Brennan Laser Lightshow.
Also Receiving Votes: Oregon State, Penn State, TCU
#2 Michigan (11-1, #2)
#3 Florida (11-1, #3)
#4 USC (10-1, #4)
#5 LSU (10-2, #6)
#6 Louisville (10-1, #10)
#7 Oklahoma (10-2, #9)
#8 Wisconsin (11-1, #12)
#9 Arkansas (10-2, #8)
#10 Boise State (12-0, #14)
#11 Notre Dame (10-2, #11)
#12 Auburn (10-2, #13)
#13 West Virginia (9-2, #5)
#14 Rutgers (10-1, #17)
#15 Texas (9-3, #7)
#16 Nebraska (9-3, #21)
#17 Virginia Tech (10-2, #18)
#18 Wake Forest (10-2, #19)
#19 Tennessee (9-3, #15)
#20 Cal (8-3, #20)
#21 Texas A&M (9-3, #23)
#22 Georgia (8-4, --)
#23 BYU (10-2, #24)
#24 Georgia Tech (9-3, #16)
#25 Hawaii (10-2, --)
NOTES!
USC's been the most vulnerable in their wins of the 2 through 4 teams. And, well, Michigan didn't schedule Western Carolina.
Man, Wisconsin got hosed.
Arkansas looked as impressive in the LSU loss as they have all year, and a lot of teams in the 11-15 range didn't do much, so I didn't penalize the Razorbacks that much.
I really want to see Boise-Notre Dame. After this week, I don't know who would win, I just know it would be a heckuva lot of fun.
13-15 were hard to figure out. Texas has the most talent, but they've just fallen off a cliff and who knows with McCoy now. I still think WVU will beat Rutgers, and essentially consider the Mountaineers a one-loss team, since the WVU-Louisville game was essentially a tossup with a strong advantage for WV.
I give Nebraska a pretty good shot against OU, they're playing well.
Ugh, the ACC.
Tennessee should've lost to Kentucky, and their performance was about as good as losing to the Wildcats.
Georgia's a much better team now than the one that lost those 4 games. I could see a case for BYU over them, but not GT (obviously) or Hawaii.
Georgia Tech's worthless. They show up from time to time, but God, what a waste of Calvin Johnson.
Nothing can stop the Colt Brennan Laser Lightshow.
Also Receiving Votes: Oregon State, Penn State, TCU
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Week 13 Recap
#3 Florida 21, Florida State 14
I think Florida has about as good a case as USC. USC may have the higher SOS, but Florida has a better loss, and they've been winning more impressively than scores would indicate. This was another one, as Florida outgained the Noles 388-235, forced 3 Drew Weatherford picks, and Chris Leak had an efficient 21/34, 283 yard, 2 TD day.
#4 USC 44, #11 Notre Dame 24
The easy thing would be to say "Gee, USC abused a vulnerable Irish pass defense, who would have thought that (besides me)", but if I live by the stats, I die by the stats, and UND actually gained more passing yards than the Trojans. The yardage was actually even, at 404-404. If anything, I thought Notre Dame actually played better than I expected, which...probably doesn't say much, actually. Anyway, yeah, UND's a pretty good team (and were quite overrated), and USC's just much better. USC vs. Florida is an interesting debate -- too bad we won't see THAT game, but will probably get that big Michigan-Notre Dame rematch. Since, you know, the first one was so close.
South Florida 24, #5 West Virginia 19
Well, that was pretty inexplicably one-sided. Slaton got held to only 43 yards (2.4 per carry), and White did even worse, so it's not like WVU was forced to make a comeback and pass -- they just got shut down. Without a 57 yard Darius Reynaud run on a reverse, the Mountaineers only had 75 yards rushing. Jesus. The fact that this was in Morgantown makes this all the more shocking. And hey, watch out for the Bulls next year.
#6 LSU 31, #8 Arkansas 26
About an even game; Arkansas legitimized themselves to me even in the loss. The running game was insane for the Razorbacks, with McFadden gaining 182 and 2 TD, Felix Jones going for 137 and a score, and both getting about 8.6 yards per carry. Why the Razorbacks lost, however: It took McFadden, the running back, two passes to outgain starting QB Casey Dick's entire total. (McFadden went 2/2 for 33, Dick went 3/17 for 29.)
#23 Texas A&M 12, #7 Texas 7
A&M has gone back to a complete running team, rushing for 244 and only passing for 58. Still, QB Stephen McGee was the Aggies' leading rusher with 95 yards. Texas has...completely fallen off a cliff.
#9 Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 21
About even game yardage-wise, and probably the least impressive performance in a while by the Oklahoma D. Sooners are probably still the best team in the Big 12 right now, while OK State could have a big year in 2007.
#10 Louisville 48, Pittsburgh 24
Same old, same old for Pitt: Tyler Palko puts up some yards (307), the defense gives up more (499), and LaRod Stephens-Howling comes and goes (57 yards this time). Not much to say, but Brian Brohm (21/29, 337, 4 TD) confirmed that he is, in fact, really good.
#14 Boise State 38, Nevada 7
Holy shit! Boise not only put up their usual gaudy offensive stats, but held Nevada to 141 yards, and star Wolf Pack QB Jeff Rowe to only 35. Boise puts an exclamation point on their BCS bid, and now I really want to see Boise State-Notre Dame, because that'd be a fun offensive shootout and now I'm not so sure Notre Dame would win. But of course, we won't get that.
#15 Tennessee 17, Kentucky 12
Kentucky actually outplayed the Vols quite handily, outgaining them by 74, and winning both the air and ground battles. ...the hell? I assume this means Tennessee is worse than I thought, since I can't imagine Kentucky is a top 25 team.
Georgia 15, #16 Georgia Tech 12
Much like Michigan State sucking being 95% coaching, GT's inconsistency is 95% Reggie Ball. I don't care how good the UGA defense is, there is absolutely no excuse to have 42 yards passing when your WR is probably the best player in the nation. Just horrible. A nice game by GT RB Tashard Choice (23 car, 146 yds, TD), but still, I hate this team. Get out now, Calvin, while you still can. Sneak into an NFL game, put on a jersey, and see if anyone notices. Quick, before Reggie Ball lowers your stock any further!
#17 Rutgers 38, Syracuse 7
Well, that's more like it, as Ray Rice and Brian Leonard each ran for over 100. Syracuse is horrible. Well, they were here. But not against UConn. Sadly.
#18 Virginia Tech 17, Virginia 0
Splat. VT's offense wasn't too great, but they just shut Virginia down. Not much to say here. VT's probably the best team in the ACC right now, and I can say that now that there's no chance of them losing another conference game.
#19 Wake Forest 38, Maryland 24
Maryland has gone the entire year without outgaining a I-A opponent. Impressive. Nice to see justice prevail, too, although it would've been hilarious if Maryland won the ACC and heightened expectations to an insanely unrealistic level for next year. Shout-out to Wake RB Kenneth Moore, who ran for 165 and a TD.
#21 Nebraska 37, Colorado 14
Nebraska outgained Colorado 468-297, so this was about as one-sided as the score. The Huskers had a good day both on the ground and through the air, with RB Brandon Jackson running for 142 and a TD, while QB Zac Taylor threw for 249 and 2 scores. With OU's defensive woes against Oklahoma State, the Big 12 title game is going to be quite interesting.
Miami 17, #22 Boston College 14
This was a pretty awful game, so I'll do some wordplay in honor of Canes QB Kirby Freeman instead of trying to analyze this: Miami (and Kirby) sucked, but BC got eaten alive.
#23 BYU 33, Utah 31
Utah played slightly better, but it was still pretty much a crapshoot, and that's about right; Utah, on their good days, is about as good as BYU. Still doesn't answer many questions I have about the Utes' inconsistency, however. Still, good work Utah, but better luck next time.
South Carolina 31, #25 Clemson 28
SC outgained Clemson by 120 yards, so SC wasn't lucky to win, Clemson was lucky to keep it close. And the Gamecocks have had their fair share of bad luck, so think of this as some sort of cosmic retribution. Two pretty good teams. Yep.
UNLV 42, Air Force 39
The fun shootout the score suggests, although both teams also ran for over 200. Air Force is pretty damn good for a team that will finish 5-7 at best.
Western Michigan 17, Akron 0
Akron wanted to be bowl-eligible, but they figured they wouldn't be invited to one even if they were, so they just decided to make that "Zips" nickname really really ironic just for laughs.
Arizona State 28, Arizona 14
The best game ASU's played all year, and ironically now Dirk Koetter will be fired. Arizona was held to only 168 yards, and Rudy Carpenter actually looked like a I-A QB, going 17/25 for 214, 3 TD and a pick. However, since Koetter is gone, Sam Keller still laughs.
Cincinnati 26, Connecticut 23
And looking at the stats, it shouldn't even have been that close. Sigh.
TCU 45, Colorado State 14
TCU's just going crazy; after the shutout of SDSU, they racked up 606 yards here and generally just smashed the Rams good. If only they had played like this before.
North Carolina 45, Duke 44
This only happened because I called Duke the best team in the ACC last week.
Northern Illinois 27, Eastern Michigan 0
Just a shout-out to Garrett Wolfe in what might be his last collegiate game, as he went out with 164 and a TD on 27 carries. See you in the NFL, Garrett.
Hawaii 42, Purdue 35
It took a while, but this led up to the shootout billing, as Hawaii outgained the Boilermakers 653-472. COLT BRENNAN WATCH: 33/48, 434, 3 TD, INT, 59 rush yds.
Mississippi 20, Mississippi State 17
Ole Miss gets another lucky win, the Bulldogs have another unlucky loss. Assuming Croom stays on, Mississippi State could surprise next year, in a 6-6 or 7-5 sense.
New Mexico State 42, Utah State 20
NMSU's first I-A win in two years. Congrats. I guess.
I think Florida has about as good a case as USC. USC may have the higher SOS, but Florida has a better loss, and they've been winning more impressively than scores would indicate. This was another one, as Florida outgained the Noles 388-235, forced 3 Drew Weatherford picks, and Chris Leak had an efficient 21/34, 283 yard, 2 TD day.
#4 USC 44, #11 Notre Dame 24
The easy thing would be to say "Gee, USC abused a vulnerable Irish pass defense, who would have thought that (besides me)", but if I live by the stats, I die by the stats, and UND actually gained more passing yards than the Trojans. The yardage was actually even, at 404-404. If anything, I thought Notre Dame actually played better than I expected, which...probably doesn't say much, actually. Anyway, yeah, UND's a pretty good team (and were quite overrated), and USC's just much better. USC vs. Florida is an interesting debate -- too bad we won't see THAT game, but will probably get that big Michigan-Notre Dame rematch. Since, you know, the first one was so close.
South Florida 24, #5 West Virginia 19
Well, that was pretty inexplicably one-sided. Slaton got held to only 43 yards (2.4 per carry), and White did even worse, so it's not like WVU was forced to make a comeback and pass -- they just got shut down. Without a 57 yard Darius Reynaud run on a reverse, the Mountaineers only had 75 yards rushing. Jesus. The fact that this was in Morgantown makes this all the more shocking. And hey, watch out for the Bulls next year.
#6 LSU 31, #8 Arkansas 26
About an even game; Arkansas legitimized themselves to me even in the loss. The running game was insane for the Razorbacks, with McFadden gaining 182 and 2 TD, Felix Jones going for 137 and a score, and both getting about 8.6 yards per carry. Why the Razorbacks lost, however: It took McFadden, the running back, two passes to outgain starting QB Casey Dick's entire total. (McFadden went 2/2 for 33, Dick went 3/17 for 29.)
#23 Texas A&M 12, #7 Texas 7
A&M has gone back to a complete running team, rushing for 244 and only passing for 58. Still, QB Stephen McGee was the Aggies' leading rusher with 95 yards. Texas has...completely fallen off a cliff.
#9 Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 21
About even game yardage-wise, and probably the least impressive performance in a while by the Oklahoma D. Sooners are probably still the best team in the Big 12 right now, while OK State could have a big year in 2007.
#10 Louisville 48, Pittsburgh 24
Same old, same old for Pitt: Tyler Palko puts up some yards (307), the defense gives up more (499), and LaRod Stephens-Howling comes and goes (57 yards this time). Not much to say, but Brian Brohm (21/29, 337, 4 TD) confirmed that he is, in fact, really good.
#14 Boise State 38, Nevada 7
Holy shit! Boise not only put up their usual gaudy offensive stats, but held Nevada to 141 yards, and star Wolf Pack QB Jeff Rowe to only 35. Boise puts an exclamation point on their BCS bid, and now I really want to see Boise State-Notre Dame, because that'd be a fun offensive shootout and now I'm not so sure Notre Dame would win. But of course, we won't get that.
#15 Tennessee 17, Kentucky 12
Kentucky actually outplayed the Vols quite handily, outgaining them by 74, and winning both the air and ground battles. ...the hell? I assume this means Tennessee is worse than I thought, since I can't imagine Kentucky is a top 25 team.
Georgia 15, #16 Georgia Tech 12
Much like Michigan State sucking being 95% coaching, GT's inconsistency is 95% Reggie Ball. I don't care how good the UGA defense is, there is absolutely no excuse to have 42 yards passing when your WR is probably the best player in the nation. Just horrible. A nice game by GT RB Tashard Choice (23 car, 146 yds, TD), but still, I hate this team. Get out now, Calvin, while you still can. Sneak into an NFL game, put on a jersey, and see if anyone notices. Quick, before Reggie Ball lowers your stock any further!
#17 Rutgers 38, Syracuse 7
Well, that's more like it, as Ray Rice and Brian Leonard each ran for over 100. Syracuse is horrible. Well, they were here. But not against UConn. Sadly.
#18 Virginia Tech 17, Virginia 0
Splat. VT's offense wasn't too great, but they just shut Virginia down. Not much to say here. VT's probably the best team in the ACC right now, and I can say that now that there's no chance of them losing another conference game.
#19 Wake Forest 38, Maryland 24
Maryland has gone the entire year without outgaining a I-A opponent. Impressive. Nice to see justice prevail, too, although it would've been hilarious if Maryland won the ACC and heightened expectations to an insanely unrealistic level for next year. Shout-out to Wake RB Kenneth Moore, who ran for 165 and a TD.
#21 Nebraska 37, Colorado 14
Nebraska outgained Colorado 468-297, so this was about as one-sided as the score. The Huskers had a good day both on the ground and through the air, with RB Brandon Jackson running for 142 and a TD, while QB Zac Taylor threw for 249 and 2 scores. With OU's defensive woes against Oklahoma State, the Big 12 title game is going to be quite interesting.
Miami 17, #22 Boston College 14
This was a pretty awful game, so I'll do some wordplay in honor of Canes QB Kirby Freeman instead of trying to analyze this: Miami (and Kirby) sucked, but BC got eaten alive.
#23 BYU 33, Utah 31
Utah played slightly better, but it was still pretty much a crapshoot, and that's about right; Utah, on their good days, is about as good as BYU. Still doesn't answer many questions I have about the Utes' inconsistency, however. Still, good work Utah, but better luck next time.
South Carolina 31, #25 Clemson 28
SC outgained Clemson by 120 yards, so SC wasn't lucky to win, Clemson was lucky to keep it close. And the Gamecocks have had their fair share of bad luck, so think of this as some sort of cosmic retribution. Two pretty good teams. Yep.
UNLV 42, Air Force 39
The fun shootout the score suggests, although both teams also ran for over 200. Air Force is pretty damn good for a team that will finish 5-7 at best.
Western Michigan 17, Akron 0
Akron wanted to be bowl-eligible, but they figured they wouldn't be invited to one even if they were, so they just decided to make that "Zips" nickname really really ironic just for laughs.
Arizona State 28, Arizona 14
The best game ASU's played all year, and ironically now Dirk Koetter will be fired. Arizona was held to only 168 yards, and Rudy Carpenter actually looked like a I-A QB, going 17/25 for 214, 3 TD and a pick. However, since Koetter is gone, Sam Keller still laughs.
Cincinnati 26, Connecticut 23
And looking at the stats, it shouldn't even have been that close. Sigh.
TCU 45, Colorado State 14
TCU's just going crazy; after the shutout of SDSU, they racked up 606 yards here and generally just smashed the Rams good. If only they had played like this before.
North Carolina 45, Duke 44
This only happened because I called Duke the best team in the ACC last week.
Northern Illinois 27, Eastern Michigan 0
Just a shout-out to Garrett Wolfe in what might be his last collegiate game, as he went out with 164 and a TD on 27 carries. See you in the NFL, Garrett.
Hawaii 42, Purdue 35
It took a while, but this led up to the shootout billing, as Hawaii outgained the Boilermakers 653-472. COLT BRENNAN WATCH: 33/48, 434, 3 TD, INT, 59 rush yds.
Mississippi 20, Mississippi State 17
Ole Miss gets another lucky win, the Bulldogs have another unlucky loss. Assuming Croom stays on, Mississippi State could surprise next year, in a 6-6 or 7-5 sense.
New Mexico State 42, Utah State 20
NMSU's first I-A win in two years. Congrats. I guess.
Friday, November 24, 2006
USC-NOTRE DAME
#11 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #4 USC (9-1)
Hey, a fun test, for my education and yours. AN ANALYSES OF DEFENCES:
So, let's look at ND's opponents:
Georgia Tech: 258 net yards/124 pass yards vs. ND
Penn State: 417/225
Michigan: 368/220
Michigan State: 356/109
Purdue: 493/398
Stanford: 264/154
UCLA: 277/217
Navy: 341/43
North Carolina: 298/213
Air Force: 425/205
Army: 150/92
Now, let's find out the...let's call it the performance gap, sure. Basically, subtracting those numbers from the opponents' average numbers on the year, to try and see the difference the defense (in this case, ND's) made. The more positive the number, the better UND's defensive performance:
GT: 78.6/46.7
PSU: -69.6/-24.8
Michigan: 6.9/-34.2
Mich St: 0.8/118.6
Purdue: -71.1/-111.7
Stanford: -35.5/9.5
UCLA: 52.3/-12.5
Navy: 50/14.8
UNC: -19.5/-40
Air Force: -83.9/-109
Army: 111.7/39.8
Which works out to an overall gap of Notre Dame being +20.7 overall, and -102.8 against the pass, or, on a per-game basis, Notre Dame giving up 1.8 less yards than average overall, but 9.3 more pass yards per game. Though without the Michigan State implosion, that stat jumps up to 22. But anyway, let's do the same analysis for USC!
Performance gap!
Arkansas: 95.6/-2
Nebraska: 194.9/105.3
Arizona: 146.5/41.7
Washington State: -37.9/-27.2
Washington: -76.2/-18.2
Arizona State: 93.5/72.7
Oregon State: -42.5/-31.4
Stanford: -11.5/-14.5
Oregon: 30.7/-11.2
Cal: 142.8/82.8
And that works out to 535.9/197.4 on the year, so USC gives up 53.6 less yards than average overall, and 19.7 less pass yards.
So, let's work out the numbers:
Notre Dame's offense:
397.5 yards per game on average - 53.6 = 343.9
273.7 passing per game on average - 19.7 = 254
USC's offense:
392.2 yards per game on average - 1.8 = 390.4
250 passing per game on average + 9.3 = 259.3
And that gives USC the advantage. And that's assuming they don't carry over the momentum from the Cal game. Though Notre Dame DID just shut down...Army. But not UNC or Air Force. God, you know, the stats show that Notre Dame really isn't that far below average, but I can't take them seriously with that strength of schedule. And, really, that about sums it up. Do I give UND a chance? Yes, though significantly less so at USC. Although part of me almost wants to see Notre Dame win just so the Ohio State-Michigan rematch becomes that much closer to a reality. But I really think USC's the better team, and as those stats show, they have the hotter defense. Notre Dame's best defensive performances were against Georgia Tech and Michigan State, an erratic team and one that imploded, at the beginning of the year, and comparing that to USC and Cal, just forget it.
My Pick: USC
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Hey, a fun test, for my education and yours. AN ANALYSES OF DEFENCES:
So, let's look at ND's opponents:
Georgia Tech: 258 net yards/124 pass yards vs. ND
Penn State: 417/225
Michigan: 368/220
Michigan State: 356/109
Purdue: 493/398
Stanford: 264/154
UCLA: 277/217
Navy: 341/43
North Carolina: 298/213
Air Force: 425/205
Army: 150/92
Now, let's find out the...let's call it the performance gap, sure. Basically, subtracting those numbers from the opponents' average numbers on the year, to try and see the difference the defense (in this case, ND's) made. The more positive the number, the better UND's defensive performance:
GT: 78.6/46.7
PSU: -69.6/-24.8
Michigan: 6.9/-34.2
Mich St: 0.8/118.6
Purdue: -71.1/-111.7
Stanford: -35.5/9.5
UCLA: 52.3/-12.5
Navy: 50/14.8
UNC: -19.5/-40
Air Force: -83.9/-109
Army: 111.7/39.8
Which works out to an overall gap of Notre Dame being +20.7 overall, and -102.8 against the pass, or, on a per-game basis, Notre Dame giving up 1.8 less yards than average overall, but 9.3 more pass yards per game. Though without the Michigan State implosion, that stat jumps up to 22. But anyway, let's do the same analysis for USC!
Performance gap!
Arkansas: 95.6/-2
Nebraska: 194.9/105.3
Arizona: 146.5/41.7
Washington State: -37.9/-27.2
Washington: -76.2/-18.2
Arizona State: 93.5/72.7
Oregon State: -42.5/-31.4
Stanford: -11.5/-14.5
Oregon: 30.7/-11.2
Cal: 142.8/82.8
And that works out to 535.9/197.4 on the year, so USC gives up 53.6 less yards than average overall, and 19.7 less pass yards.
So, let's work out the numbers:
Notre Dame's offense:
397.5 yards per game on average - 53.6 = 343.9
273.7 passing per game on average - 19.7 = 254
USC's offense:
392.2 yards per game on average - 1.8 = 390.4
250 passing per game on average + 9.3 = 259.3
And that gives USC the advantage. And that's assuming they don't carry over the momentum from the Cal game. Though Notre Dame DID just shut down...Army. But not UNC or Air Force. God, you know, the stats show that Notre Dame really isn't that far below average, but I can't take them seriously with that strength of schedule. And, really, that about sums it up. Do I give UND a chance? Yes, though significantly less so at USC. Although part of me almost wants to see Notre Dame win just so the Ohio State-Michigan rematch becomes that much closer to a reality. But I really think USC's the better team, and as those stats show, they have the hotter defense. Notre Dame's best defensive performances were against Georgia Tech and Michigan State, an erratic team and one that imploded, at the beginning of the year, and comparing that to USC and Cal, just forget it.
My Pick: USC
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Week 13 Rundown: Saturday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
#3 Florida (10-1) @ Florida State (6-5)
I don't get this myth about Florida's offense not playing well -- they're gaining yards fine. As for FSU, sigh. It's a big rivalry game and anything can happen, but not really dominating Western Michigan doesn't give me much hope for the post-Jeff Bowden era in 2006. And especially not in this game.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 2
South Florida (7-4) @ #5 West Virginia (9-1)
USF's pretty good, as that record obviously shows, led by surprise QB Matt Grothe. The WVU defense is vulnerable, but on the other hand, if the USF defense hasn't been vulnerable themselves, they will be here. The Mountaineers just have too many weapons. Well, two.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (4-7) @ #17 Rutgers (9-1)
Rutgers should be focused, Syracuse should have a letdown after that season-defining win against...Connecticut.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3
Virginia (5-6) @ #18 Virginia Tech (9-2)
Virginia's inconsistent, but Tech's probably the hottest team in the ACC. The one piece of evidence in Virginia's favor is that the Cavs schooled Miami while Tech beat them but should've lost, but all in all, I'm going to have to take the Hokies.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
South Carolina (6-5) @ #25 Clemson (8-3)
The Gamecocks are a good team and a bit snakebit, while Clemson's frustratingly inconsistent and kind of down a bit lately. Ehhhhh. This is pretty much a pick-em, but I'll take the slight talent edge.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (3-8) @ Central Florida (3-8)
Yep, those records are about right. UCF's slightly hotter (meaning, lukewarm) and at home, so there you go.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Cincinnati (6-5) @ Connecticut (4-6)
Connecticut's never lost a home game in November since going I-A. Cincinnati hasn't won a road game all year (admittedly, all of those road games are against Top 25 teams). The Huskies are way better at home. And it's a year of Big East teams having huge letdowns after season-defining wins. Yep.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2
North Carolina (2-9) @ Duke (0-11)
UNC has a pulse. Advantage, Tar Heels.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas (6-5) @ Missouri (7-4)
The Tigers are snakebit lately, playing well but losing to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa State. Kansas is playing well, and this is a big rivalry game, so stats can somewhat be thrown out the window, but I have more confidence in Missouri winning big than the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Kentucky (7-4) @ #15 Tennessee (8-3)
Kentucky will be getting to a bowl game. Wildcat fans, just keep repeating that to yourselves while trying to block out this game as it happens.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Mississippi State (3-8) @ Mississippi (3-8)
One of these teams should have beaten Arkansas last week. One of these teams should be 1-11 against I-A competition, and got annihilated but still won at home against Vanderbilt.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
#9 Oklahoma (9-2) @ Oklahoma State (6-5)
OK State has a pretty good offense, but, well, Oklahoma is back. And held Texas Tech to 250 passing yards. So, uh, ehhhh. Oklahoma State's a very good team, so I definitely give them a chance, but the Sooners are playing as well as anyone right now.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (2-8) @ New Mexico (5-6)
New Mexico's a competitive team that could've beaten Utah and TCU. San Diego State is...not.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
SMU (6-5) @ Rice (6-5)
Two pretty good teams. Really not much more to say, except for, you know, the hell? SMU and Rice, two pretty good teams? And this isn't year 10 in NCAA Football 2004? Push goes to the home team, and I think Rice is slightly better anyway.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:05 PM
New Mexico State (2-8) @ Utah State (1-10)
I am shocked that Utah State is as high as the #115 yardage offense in the country. You suck, North Texas, Florida International, Stanford and Temple. NMSU throws for a boatload of yards that amount to pretty much nothing, UNTIL NOW! If the Aggies don't get their first I-A win in two seasons HERE, then they're hopeless.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#10 Louisville (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (6-5)
Tyler Palko's having a good year under the radar, but that Pitt defense is DOA.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2) @ Georgia (7-4)
Uh oh, Georgia's getting their shit together. GT could easily just throw to Calvin Johnson and dominate all game long, but all season long, GT's also shown a tendency to forget they have the best player in the nation and just be mediocre. And mediocrity will get them nowhere here.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
#24 BYU (9-2) @ Utah (7-4)
BYU's vulnerable, as they're solidly the best team in the MWC, but not THAT far ahead. Utah could beat them, but the Utes have been inconsistent all year. They could show up, they should show up, but I'm still not going to bet on it.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 1
Troy (5-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (7-4)
SHOWDOWN! Middle Tennessee's better. Though Sun Belt parity means that probably means little.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
#14 Boise State (11-0) @ Nevada (8-3)
Like a better version of that BYU-Utah game. I...really don't know here. If it was at Boise, no chance, Broncos win, stamp your tickets or whatever. Nevada's a pretty good team, they've been consistent lately, and they actually have a very good chance at knocking the Broncos off. But I still think Boise's better, and I really can't pick against them. They're just so close!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arkansas State (6-5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5)
ASU's the better team, but both teams have their good and bad days. Namely, ULL beating Houston in the "...the hell?" game of the year, and Arkansas State being shut out at Florida Atlantic. I'll just go with talent here.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
5:05 PM
San Jose State (6-4) @ Idaho (4-7)
SJSU seems a bit lucky, but then again, there's that 476-yard rushing day they had against Louisiana Tech. The fact that SJSU's the favorite here just means, what the hell. The WAC is crazy, I don't know.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Arizona State (6-5) @ Arizona (6-5)
Well, you know, just look at the momentum. Arizona, winning big games! Arizona State, kind of sucking! About explains it all.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
TCU (8-2) @ Colorado State (4-6)
TCU's just playing much better right now, and the Horned Frogs' 52-0 thrashing of SDSU is just the exclamation point. CSU's about an average team, so it's not like this has a 100% chance of being a 100% blowout, but really, don't expect much.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
East Carolina (6-5) @ NC State (3-8)
NC State is dead. Just SO dead. No pulse. ECU's a pretty good C-USA team, and really the better team. The Wolfpack could get up because it's the last home game, or to try and save Chuck Amato's job since I imagine he's hanging by a thread, but, again, ECU's just better.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Florida International (0-10) @ Florida Atlantic (4-7)
FAU's pretty bad. FIU's REALLY bad. What a choice here.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
North Texas (3-8) @ Louisiana-Monroe (2-8)
Hoo boy. ULM's not very good, but North Texas is just in complete disarray. A lame duck coach turning on the school and just...ugh, ugly. I can't imagine the Mean Green will be ready or capable in this game, plus they're away. Good for the Warhawks.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Marshall (5-6) @ Southern Miss (7-4)
USM's defense is capable of shutting down anyone in the conference. Marshall would definitely not be in the division title race in C-USA West, and might actually be in last there. Yep.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#19 Wake Forest (9-2) @ Maryland (8-3)
I don't even know. Wake's still a fine team, but they're away, and...God. If Maryland pulls this off, I might just launch a string of profanities. But I'll definitely laugh if the Terps have any expectations next year.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#11 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #4 USC (9-1)
I'll give this one its own post either later tonight or sometime Friday.
9:00 PM
Memphis (1-10) @ UTEP (5-6)
All those teams above I said are dead? Memphis might be deader.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
11:05 PM
Purdue (8-4) @ Hawaii (9-2)
This should be a fun shootout, as both teams are all-offense, no-defense. But Hawaii's offense is better, and that Purdue D might be jetlagged. If only this was on TV.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
12:00 PM
#3 Florida (10-1) @ Florida State (6-5)
I don't get this myth about Florida's offense not playing well -- they're gaining yards fine. As for FSU, sigh. It's a big rivalry game and anything can happen, but not really dominating Western Michigan doesn't give me much hope for the post-Jeff Bowden era in 2006. And especially not in this game.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 2
South Florida (7-4) @ #5 West Virginia (9-1)
USF's pretty good, as that record obviously shows, led by surprise QB Matt Grothe. The WVU defense is vulnerable, but on the other hand, if the USF defense hasn't been vulnerable themselves, they will be here. The Mountaineers just have too many weapons. Well, two.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 2
Syracuse (4-7) @ #17 Rutgers (9-1)
Rutgers should be focused, Syracuse should have a letdown after that season-defining win against...Connecticut.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 3
Virginia (5-6) @ #18 Virginia Tech (9-2)
Virginia's inconsistent, but Tech's probably the hottest team in the ACC. The one piece of evidence in Virginia's favor is that the Cavs schooled Miami while Tech beat them but should've lost, but all in all, I'm going to have to take the Hokies.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 2
South Carolina (6-5) @ #25 Clemson (8-3)
The Gamecocks are a good team and a bit snakebit, while Clemson's frustratingly inconsistent and kind of down a bit lately. Ehhhhh. This is pretty much a pick-em, but I'll take the slight talent edge.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 1
UAB (3-8) @ Central Florida (3-8)
Yep, those records are about right. UCF's slightly hotter (meaning, lukewarm) and at home, so there you go.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Cincinnati (6-5) @ Connecticut (4-6)
Connecticut's never lost a home game in November since going I-A. Cincinnati hasn't won a road game all year (admittedly, all of those road games are against Top 25 teams). The Huskies are way better at home. And it's a year of Big East teams having huge letdowns after season-defining wins. Yep.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2
North Carolina (2-9) @ Duke (0-11)
UNC has a pulse. Advantage, Tar Heels.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 2
Kansas (6-5) @ Missouri (7-4)
The Tigers are snakebit lately, playing well but losing to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Iowa State. Kansas is playing well, and this is a big rivalry game, so stats can somewhat be thrown out the window, but I have more confidence in Missouri winning big than the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
12:30 PM
Kentucky (7-4) @ #15 Tennessee (8-3)
Kentucky will be getting to a bowl game. Wildcat fans, just keep repeating that to yourselves while trying to block out this game as it happens.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Mississippi State (3-8) @ Mississippi (3-8)
One of these teams should have beaten Arkansas last week. One of these teams should be 1-11 against I-A competition, and got annihilated but still won at home against Vanderbilt.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2
2:30 PM
#9 Oklahoma (9-2) @ Oklahoma State (6-5)
OK State has a pretty good offense, but, well, Oklahoma is back. And held Texas Tech to 250 passing yards. So, uh, ehhhh. Oklahoma State's a very good team, so I definitely give them a chance, but the Sooners are playing as well as anyone right now.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
San Diego State (2-8) @ New Mexico (5-6)
New Mexico's a competitive team that could've beaten Utah and TCU. San Diego State is...not.
My Pick: New Mexico
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
SMU (6-5) @ Rice (6-5)
Two pretty good teams. Really not much more to say, except for, you know, the hell? SMU and Rice, two pretty good teams? And this isn't year 10 in NCAA Football 2004? Push goes to the home team, and I think Rice is slightly better anyway.
My Pick: Rice
Confidence: 1
3:05 PM
New Mexico State (2-8) @ Utah State (1-10)
I am shocked that Utah State is as high as the #115 yardage offense in the country. You suck, North Texas, Florida International, Stanford and Temple. NMSU throws for a boatload of yards that amount to pretty much nothing, UNTIL NOW! If the Aggies don't get their first I-A win in two seasons HERE, then they're hopeless.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 2
3:30 PM
#10 Louisville (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (6-5)
Tyler Palko's having a good year under the radar, but that Pitt defense is DOA.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 2
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2) @ Georgia (7-4)
Uh oh, Georgia's getting their shit together. GT could easily just throw to Calvin Johnson and dominate all game long, but all season long, GT's also shown a tendency to forget they have the best player in the nation and just be mediocre. And mediocrity will get them nowhere here.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 1
#24 BYU (9-2) @ Utah (7-4)
BYU's vulnerable, as they're solidly the best team in the MWC, but not THAT far ahead. Utah could beat them, but the Utes have been inconsistent all year. They could show up, they should show up, but I'm still not going to bet on it.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 1
Troy (5-5) @ Middle Tennessee State (7-4)
SHOWDOWN! Middle Tennessee's better. Though Sun Belt parity means that probably means little.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Confidence: 1
4:00 PM
#14 Boise State (11-0) @ Nevada (8-3)
Like a better version of that BYU-Utah game. I...really don't know here. If it was at Boise, no chance, Broncos win, stamp your tickets or whatever. Nevada's a pretty good team, they've been consistent lately, and they actually have a very good chance at knocking the Broncos off. But I still think Boise's better, and I really can't pick against them. They're just so close!
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 1
5:00 PM
Arkansas State (6-5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5)
ASU's the better team, but both teams have their good and bad days. Namely, ULL beating Houston in the "...the hell?" game of the year, and Arkansas State being shut out at Florida Atlantic. I'll just go with talent here.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
5:05 PM
San Jose State (6-4) @ Idaho (4-7)
SJSU seems a bit lucky, but then again, there's that 476-yard rushing day they had against Louisiana Tech. The fact that SJSU's the favorite here just means, what the hell. The WAC is crazy, I don't know.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 1
6:00 PM
Arizona State (6-5) @ Arizona (6-5)
Well, you know, just look at the momentum. Arizona, winning big games! Arizona State, kind of sucking! About explains it all.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2
7:00 PM
TCU (8-2) @ Colorado State (4-6)
TCU's just playing much better right now, and the Horned Frogs' 52-0 thrashing of SDSU is just the exclamation point. CSU's about an average team, so it's not like this has a 100% chance of being a 100% blowout, but really, don't expect much.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
East Carolina (6-5) @ NC State (3-8)
NC State is dead. Just SO dead. No pulse. ECU's a pretty good C-USA team, and really the better team. The Wolfpack could get up because it's the last home game, or to try and save Chuck Amato's job since I imagine he's hanging by a thread, but, again, ECU's just better.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Florida International (0-10) @ Florida Atlantic (4-7)
FAU's pretty bad. FIU's REALLY bad. What a choice here.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 2
North Texas (3-8) @ Louisiana-Monroe (2-8)
Hoo boy. ULM's not very good, but North Texas is just in complete disarray. A lame duck coach turning on the school and just...ugh, ugly. I can't imagine the Mean Green will be ready or capable in this game, plus they're away. Good for the Warhawks.
My Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
Marshall (5-6) @ Southern Miss (7-4)
USM's defense is capable of shutting down anyone in the conference. Marshall would definitely not be in the division title race in C-USA West, and might actually be in last there. Yep.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#19 Wake Forest (9-2) @ Maryland (8-3)
I don't even know. Wake's still a fine team, but they're away, and...God. If Maryland pulls this off, I might just launch a string of profanities. But I'll definitely laugh if the Terps have any expectations next year.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#11 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #4 USC (9-1)
I'll give this one its own post either later tonight or sometime Friday.
9:00 PM
Memphis (1-10) @ UTEP (5-6)
All those teams above I said are dead? Memphis might be deader.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 3
11:05 PM
Purdue (8-4) @ Hawaii (9-2)
This should be a fun shootout, as both teams are all-offense, no-defense. But Hawaii's offense is better, and that Purdue D might be jetlagged. If only this was on TV.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 2
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Week 13 Rundown: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#22 Boston College (9-2) @ Miami (5-6)
Well, I've lost all faith in Miami. That said, BC is vulnerable, Miami's at home with their backs against the wall, and maybe, just maybe, they can try to save Larry Coker's job with a win here and then what is sure to be a big win over...San Jose State, probably, in the MPC Computers Bowl. Unless Boise gets upset by Nevada, in which case the Broncos get that bowl bid and could very well murderize the Canes. But I'm getting ahead of myself. An upset, and god, the fact that Miami winning would be an upset is just horrible, but the Canes could win here. But if they couldn't beat Virginia, I'm not going to count on it.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence (out of 5): 1
FRIDAY
11:00 AM
Northern Illinois (6-5) @ Eastern Michigan (1-10)
EMU's probably the biggest disappointment in the MAC, at least outside of how suddenly Garrett Wolfe's Heisman hopes hit a brick wall. Wolfe's back on a hot streak, so he should be able to continue it here, but anything can happen in the MAC.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 2
12:00 PM
#23 Texas A&M (8-3) @ #7 Texas (9-2)
Texas has the #2 run defense in the country behind Michigan, so A&M's probably going to have to do it with the pass. Stephen McGee's been decent lately, but I don't know if decent can cut it here. Plus the Texas offense was just fine without McCoy, and with him, there could be trouble. A&M's a good team capable of pulling off the upset, but the Horns are just, you know, better.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
Kent State (6-5) @ Ball State (4-7)
Meh. Two pretty alright MAC teams. Kent's slightly better, Ball's at home and seems slightly hotter, so I'll go with the Cardinals.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
Ohio (8-3) @ Miami of Ohio (2-9)
Ohio's the best team in the MAC. Now that I've said that, they'll probably lose, but Miami shouldn't even have beaten Bowling Green.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Central Michigan (7-4) @ Buffalo (2-9)
Garrett Wolfe shredded the CMU offense, but yep, that'll happen. And he's not on Buffalo. And, you know, it's Buffalo.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
#6 LSU (9-2) @ #8 Arkansas (10-1)
#6 run defense in the country @ the #4 run offense! Because, come on, that's the matchup that matters. C'mon, let's rank the run defenses that Arkansas has played this year:
USC #13, Alabama #38, Mississippi State #40, Auburn #48, South Carolina #76, Tennessee #77, Louisiana-Monroe #89, Vanderbilt #90, Mississippi #93, Utah State #109
McFadden's lines from those top four:
USC: 9 car, 42 yds, 4.7 YPC
Bama: 25 car, 113 yds, 4.5 YPC
Miss St: 26 car, 84 yds, 3.2 YPC
Auburn: 28 car, 145 yds, 5.2 YPC
Hmmm. So Arkansas can definitely run on GOOD defenses, it just remains to be seen how they'll do against a great one. AND the Mississippi State game was the most recent. I still favor LSU's defense, and really just the team in general, but Arkansas could just as easily win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Tulane (4-7) @ Tulsa (7-4)
Tulsa's slipping, but Tulane's an all-passing team when they can even get that done, and Tulsa has the #1 pass defense in C-USA. Uh oh!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
Colorado (2-9) @ #21 Nebraska (8-3)
Nebraska should easily win. What else is there to say?
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3
Western Michigan (7-4) @ Akron (5-6)
Yep, these records are about accurate. Lots of MAC parity, so either team can win. The Broncos are better, but Akron's at home and staring bowl eligiblity in the face, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Oregon (7-4) @ Oregon State (7-4)
Two teams playing well, even if turnovers have led to some recent losses. Pretty much a crapshoot, so I'll go with the team I think has more talent.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Air Force (4-6) @ UNLV (1-10)
UNLV's probably better than that 1-10 record, but Air Force is definitely better than 4-6. Air Force does the flexbone style, so it's mostly rushing, but more passing than, say a Navy. And UNLV doesn't have that great a run defense, and hey, if Air Force can throw for 300 against NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER NOTRE DAME!, I think they can against the Rebels.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Fresno State (3-7) @ Louisiana Tech (3-8)
Fresno's on a comparative roll, beating up on the cupcakes of the WAC. Hey, Louisiana Tech is one of those!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
#22 Boston College (9-2) @ Miami (5-6)
Well, I've lost all faith in Miami. That said, BC is vulnerable, Miami's at home with their backs against the wall, and maybe, just maybe, they can try to save Larry Coker's job with a win here and then what is sure to be a big win over...San Jose State, probably, in the MPC Computers Bowl. Unless Boise gets upset by Nevada, in which case the Broncos get that bowl bid and could very well murderize the Canes. But I'm getting ahead of myself. An upset, and god, the fact that Miami winning would be an upset is just horrible, but the Canes could win here. But if they couldn't beat Virginia, I'm not going to count on it.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence (out of 5): 1
FRIDAY
11:00 AM
Northern Illinois (6-5) @ Eastern Michigan (1-10)
EMU's probably the biggest disappointment in the MAC, at least outside of how suddenly Garrett Wolfe's Heisman hopes hit a brick wall. Wolfe's back on a hot streak, so he should be able to continue it here, but anything can happen in the MAC.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 2
12:00 PM
#23 Texas A&M (8-3) @ #7 Texas (9-2)
Texas has the #2 run defense in the country behind Michigan, so A&M's probably going to have to do it with the pass. Stephen McGee's been decent lately, but I don't know if decent can cut it here. Plus the Texas offense was just fine without McCoy, and with him, there could be trouble. A&M's a good team capable of pulling off the upset, but the Horns are just, you know, better.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 2
Kent State (6-5) @ Ball State (4-7)
Meh. Two pretty alright MAC teams. Kent's slightly better, Ball's at home and seems slightly hotter, so I'll go with the Cardinals.
My Pick: Ball State
Confidence: 1
Ohio (8-3) @ Miami of Ohio (2-9)
Ohio's the best team in the MAC. Now that I've said that, they'll probably lose, but Miami shouldn't even have beaten Bowling Green.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 2
1:00 PM
Central Michigan (7-4) @ Buffalo (2-9)
Garrett Wolfe shredded the CMU offense, but yep, that'll happen. And he's not on Buffalo. And, you know, it's Buffalo.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3
2:30 PM
#6 LSU (9-2) @ #8 Arkansas (10-1)
#6 run defense in the country @ the #4 run offense! Because, come on, that's the matchup that matters. C'mon, let's rank the run defenses that Arkansas has played this year:
USC #13, Alabama #38, Mississippi State #40, Auburn #48, South Carolina #76, Tennessee #77, Louisiana-Monroe #89, Vanderbilt #90, Mississippi #93, Utah State #109
McFadden's lines from those top four:
USC: 9 car, 42 yds, 4.7 YPC
Bama: 25 car, 113 yds, 4.5 YPC
Miss St: 26 car, 84 yds, 3.2 YPC
Auburn: 28 car, 145 yds, 5.2 YPC
Hmmm. So Arkansas can definitely run on GOOD defenses, it just remains to be seen how they'll do against a great one. AND the Mississippi State game was the most recent. I still favor LSU's defense, and really just the team in general, but Arkansas could just as easily win.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 1
3:00 PM
Tulane (4-7) @ Tulsa (7-4)
Tulsa's slipping, but Tulane's an all-passing team when they can even get that done, and Tulsa has the #1 pass defense in C-USA. Uh oh!
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
Colorado (2-9) @ #21 Nebraska (8-3)
Nebraska should easily win. What else is there to say?
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3
Western Michigan (7-4) @ Akron (5-6)
Yep, these records are about accurate. Lots of MAC parity, so either team can win. The Broncos are better, but Akron's at home and staring bowl eligiblity in the face, so hey, why not.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence: 1
Oregon (7-4) @ Oregon State (7-4)
Two teams playing well, even if turnovers have led to some recent losses. Pretty much a crapshoot, so I'll go with the team I think has more talent.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Air Force (4-6) @ UNLV (1-10)
UNLV's probably better than that 1-10 record, but Air Force is definitely better than 4-6. Air Force does the flexbone style, so it's mostly rushing, but more passing than, say a Navy. And UNLV doesn't have that great a run defense, and hey, if Air Force can throw for 300 against NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER NOTRE DAME!, I think they can against the Rebels.
My Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Fresno State (3-7) @ Louisiana Tech (3-8)
Fresno's on a comparative roll, beating up on the cupcakes of the WAC. Hey, Louisiana Tech is one of those!
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Week 13 Rundown: Tuesday
TUESDAY
7:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-7) @ Toledo (4-7)
Two teams that should've won last week, BGSU over Miami of Ohio and Toledo over Ball State. Toledo seems to be getting into the swing of things and building some momentum for next year. Bowling Green seems to be...basically just treading water. Bleh.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence (out of 5): 2
7:00 PM
Bowling Green (4-7) @ Toledo (4-7)
Two teams that should've won last week, BGSU over Miami of Ohio and Toledo over Ball State. Toledo seems to be getting into the swing of things and building some momentum for next year. Bowling Green seems to be...basically just treading water. Bleh.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Monday, November 20, 2006
Feely Top 25: After Week 12
#1 Ohio State (12-0, #2 LW)
#2 Michigan (11-1, #1)
#3 Florida (10-1, #3)
#4 USC (9-1, #4)
#5 West Virginia (9-1, #5)
#6 LSU (9-2, #7)
#7 Texas (9-2, #6)
#8 Arkansas (10-1, #8)
#9 Oklahoma (9-2, #11)
#10 Louisville (9-1, #12)
#11 Notre Dame (10-1, #13)
#12 Wisconsin (11-1, #15)
#13 Auburn (10-2, #10)
#14 Boise State (11-0, #14)
#15 Tennessee (8-3, #16)
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2, #19)
#17 Rutgers (9-1, #9)
#18 Virginia Tech (9-2, #21)
#19 Wake Forest (9-2, #18)
#20 Cal (8-3, #17)
#21 Nebraska (8-3, #20)
#22 Boston College (9-2, #23)
#23 Texas A&M (8-3, #22)
#24 BYU (9-2, #24)
#25 Clemson (8-3, #25)
NOTES!
Again, which OSU would YOU rather lose to? Also, Western Carolina? Michigan's so easily the #2 team in the country that it's not funny. Well, it kind of is.
Arkansas's still more Tennessee than Florida in my eyes, sorry.
If OU-Texas was played again today, Oklahoma could kill them. The Sooners are just playing really, really well, and it doesn't seem like anyone is noticing.
Kind of wondering how I had Wisconsin that low...
Oh, Rutgers. I almost had them ahead of GT, but both teams are inconsistent and I think the good GT beats the good Rutgers and the bad GT murders the bad Rutgers.
The ACC is a mess.
Also Receiving Votes: Georgia, Hawaii, Penn State, TCU
#2 Michigan (11-1, #1)
#3 Florida (10-1, #3)
#4 USC (9-1, #4)
#5 West Virginia (9-1, #5)
#6 LSU (9-2, #7)
#7 Texas (9-2, #6)
#8 Arkansas (10-1, #8)
#9 Oklahoma (9-2, #11)
#10 Louisville (9-1, #12)
#11 Notre Dame (10-1, #13)
#12 Wisconsin (11-1, #15)
#13 Auburn (10-2, #10)
#14 Boise State (11-0, #14)
#15 Tennessee (8-3, #16)
#16 Georgia Tech (9-2, #19)
#17 Rutgers (9-1, #9)
#18 Virginia Tech (9-2, #21)
#19 Wake Forest (9-2, #18)
#20 Cal (8-3, #17)
#21 Nebraska (8-3, #20)
#22 Boston College (9-2, #23)
#23 Texas A&M (8-3, #22)
#24 BYU (9-2, #24)
#25 Clemson (8-3, #25)
NOTES!
Again, which OSU would YOU rather lose to? Also, Western Carolina? Michigan's so easily the #2 team in the country that it's not funny. Well, it kind of is.
Arkansas's still more Tennessee than Florida in my eyes, sorry.
If OU-Texas was played again today, Oklahoma could kill them. The Sooners are just playing really, really well, and it doesn't seem like anyone is noticing.
Kind of wondering how I had Wisconsin that low...
Oh, Rutgers. I almost had them ahead of GT, but both teams are inconsistent and I think the good GT beats the good Rutgers and the bad GT murders the bad Rutgers.
The ACC is a mess.
Also Receiving Votes: Georgia, Hawaii, Penn State, TCU
Week 12 Recap: The Rest
Utah 17, Air Force 14
A tremendously even game. Two pretty good teams. Yep. Shame AFA's probably losing at TCU and won't be bowl eligible.
Ohio 17, Akron 7
A tale of two ground games -- Ohio: 208, Akron: -4. And that's the game right there.
Arizona 37, Oregon 10
The heck? This was about an even game yardage-wise, though Arizona should've won it. The obvious difference in the game, however, is Oregon's 6 turnovers. Arizona RB Chris Henry had a huge day, running for 191 and 2 scores. Just, wow. Oregon's fading, obviously, while Arizona...well, where the hell was that all year?
UCLA 24, Arizona State 12
RUDY CARPENTER WATCH: 11/30, 149, INT. Sam Keller, still laughing.
Northern Illinois 31, Central Michigan 10
Garrett Wolfe: 33 car, 203 yards, 3 TD. Against the best team in the MAC. After being shut down by random mediocre MAC teams. Who knows.
Syracuse 20, Connecticut 14
Sigh. D.J. Hernandez went 19/29 passing, gaining 188 and 2 scores, but throwing 3 picks. Still, that stat line is probably improved from his year average. The Cuse run defense stepped up, holding Donald Brown to only 67 yards on 18 carries. Cuse was just the better team here, though not by a huge amount. Yep.
Rice 18, East Carolina 17
Rice won pretty handily here, even if the score doesn't reflect that. Ooh, ooh, quick pun: Rice, both the team and the food, are bowl-eligible. Still, I thought the transition from a wishbone offense was supposed to take 3 or 4 years. Amazingly well-done job by Todd Graham.
Florida State 28, Western Michigan 20
Well, maybe it wasn't all Jeff Bowden.
Fresno State 34, Idaho 0
Wow, Fresno State, what a fearsome mid-major.
Hawaii 54, San Jose State 17
COLT BRENNAN: 28/39, 402 yards, 5 TD, INT. Let the 2007 Heisman campaign begin.
Purdue 28, Indiana 19
Yep. Purdue got outgained and threw 4 picks, so you could say they pulled a Maryland special. Except, of course, that the Hoosiers turned it over 4 times themselves.
Minnesota 34, Iowa 24
Iowa outplayed Minnesota here, but 5 turnovers killed them. Then again, the Hawkeyes had 0 net rushing yards, so screw 'em.
Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Ugh, a brutal game. 5 turnovers by each team, random nutty defensive and special team touchdowns, just...bleh. Teams were about even overall, though.
Virginia 17, Miami 7
No fluke, the Canes just got outplayed. This should be the nail in the coffin.
Penn State 17, Michigan State 13
Michigan State finishing the season by choking en route to a loss is just...beautiful.
North Carolina 23, NC State 9
Another game where the loser should've won, though, like Iowa, NC State sucked bad enough that you really can't complain.
TCU 52, San Diego State 0
The yardage battle: TCU 624, SDSU 87. Ow.
SMU 34, Tulsa 24
And nothing fluky about it. SMU's bowl-eligible for the first time since the Death Penalty. Applause.
A tremendously even game. Two pretty good teams. Yep. Shame AFA's probably losing at TCU and won't be bowl eligible.
Ohio 17, Akron 7
A tale of two ground games -- Ohio: 208, Akron: -4. And that's the game right there.
Arizona 37, Oregon 10
The heck? This was about an even game yardage-wise, though Arizona should've won it. The obvious difference in the game, however, is Oregon's 6 turnovers. Arizona RB Chris Henry had a huge day, running for 191 and 2 scores. Just, wow. Oregon's fading, obviously, while Arizona...well, where the hell was that all year?
UCLA 24, Arizona State 12
RUDY CARPENTER WATCH: 11/30, 149, INT. Sam Keller, still laughing.
Northern Illinois 31, Central Michigan 10
Garrett Wolfe: 33 car, 203 yards, 3 TD. Against the best team in the MAC. After being shut down by random mediocre MAC teams. Who knows.
Syracuse 20, Connecticut 14
Sigh. D.J. Hernandez went 19/29 passing, gaining 188 and 2 scores, but throwing 3 picks. Still, that stat line is probably improved from his year average. The Cuse run defense stepped up, holding Donald Brown to only 67 yards on 18 carries. Cuse was just the better team here, though not by a huge amount. Yep.
Rice 18, East Carolina 17
Rice won pretty handily here, even if the score doesn't reflect that. Ooh, ooh, quick pun: Rice, both the team and the food, are bowl-eligible. Still, I thought the transition from a wishbone offense was supposed to take 3 or 4 years. Amazingly well-done job by Todd Graham.
Florida State 28, Western Michigan 20
Well, maybe it wasn't all Jeff Bowden.
Fresno State 34, Idaho 0
Wow, Fresno State, what a fearsome mid-major.
Hawaii 54, San Jose State 17
COLT BRENNAN: 28/39, 402 yards, 5 TD, INT. Let the 2007 Heisman campaign begin.
Purdue 28, Indiana 19
Yep. Purdue got outgained and threw 4 picks, so you could say they pulled a Maryland special. Except, of course, that the Hoosiers turned it over 4 times themselves.
Minnesota 34, Iowa 24
Iowa outplayed Minnesota here, but 5 turnovers killed them. Then again, the Hawkeyes had 0 net rushing yards, so screw 'em.
Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Ugh, a brutal game. 5 turnovers by each team, random nutty defensive and special team touchdowns, just...bleh. Teams were about even overall, though.
Virginia 17, Miami 7
No fluke, the Canes just got outplayed. This should be the nail in the coffin.
Penn State 17, Michigan State 13
Michigan State finishing the season by choking en route to a loss is just...beautiful.
North Carolina 23, NC State 9
Another game where the loser should've won, though, like Iowa, NC State sucked bad enough that you really can't complain.
TCU 52, San Diego State 0
The yardage battle: TCU 624, SDSU 87. Ow.
SMU 34, Tulsa 24
And nothing fluky about it. SMU's bowl-eligible for the first time since the Death Penalty. Applause.
Week 12 Recap: The Top 25
#2 Ohio State 42, #1 Michigan 39
...wow. Ohio State won this one statistically, though if there were a fifth quarter, who knows. Where to start, where to start. Can't give enough credit to both teams, especially the Buckeyes, though.
-I was right about the Ohio State run defense: Mike Hart ran for 142 and 3 TD, gaining 6.2 yards per carry.
-But, inexplicably when you look at the statistics, the Michigan run defense was even more vulnerable. It's probably skewed by the big run (though really, the fact that the big run EXISTED proves the point), but Antonio Pittman ran for 139 and an amazingly impressive 7.7 YPC.
-To state the obvious, Troy Smith is one motherfucking big game quarterback. He had a rough patch, but this is probably his most statistically impressive game of the year, ESPECIALLY when you consider the competition. 29/41, 316, 4 TD, INT.
-Michigan...well, looking at Mike Hart's stats, you can't really say they got taken out of their offensive gameplan, but Chad Henne had a better day than probably anyone could imagine: 21/35, 267, 2 TD. Just, again, the run defense oddly let them down.
I could go on, but basically, I want to see it again. There are so many unanswered questions there has to be a sequel. Can the Michigan run defense be this vulnerable again? Or was it just the OSU offensive line, which is probably the best one Michigan's faced all year? Can Troy Smith do it again, and even if he can't, can Chad Henne? This was just tremendous. It's a complete outlier from Michigan's season, but I still give Ohio State all the credit in the world. And Michigan too, it's amazing that they were able to compete in a game where the Buckeyes put up 42 points. Just...wow.
#3 Florida 62, Western Carolina 0
In contrast, scheduling this game takes away any right Florida has to bitch if they don't leapfrog Michigan. I said the same thing about Auburn two years ago, and it's holds here. C'mon, at least schedule a MAC team. Or San Jose State. Or SOMEONE. God. Florida still has a better case than USC, though. Which OSU would YOU rather lose to, Ohio State or Oregon State? God.
#4 USC 23, #17 Cal 9
Cal just got schooled. This was more of a defensive showcase for the Trojans, forcing three Cal turnovers and holding the Golden Bears to only 275 yards. The most impressive USC line was Booty's: 18/31, 238, 2 TD. But don't worry, the Trojans will have a big day against the Notre Dame "defense."
#5 West Virginia 45, Pittsburgh 27
Let's compare rushing yards, kids:
WEST VIRGINIA: 437
PITTSBURGH: -1
About says it all. Tyler Palko still had a good game, throwing for 341 and 2 TD, but it pales in comparison to these monster statlines:
Steve Slaton: 23 car, 215 yards, 2 TD
Pat White: PASSING: 11/16, 204, 2 TD RUSHING: 22 car, 220 yards, 2 TD
That Pitt offense is capable, but that defense...sheesh.
#7 LSU 23, Mississippi 20 (OT)
This looks like one of those fluky Maryland specials, as Ole Miss only gained 195 yards and generally sucked bad. Not really much to say. LSU, in fact, showed they were the much better team here, the score just doesn't reflect that.
#8 Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 14
Oh wow, there's a chink in the armor. MSU outplayed the Backs here, only losing because of TDs off a pick and on a return. Darren McFadden hurt his...second-place Heisman voting chances, going for only 84 yards on 26 carries. If they got LSU on the road and not at home, hoo boy, that could be an ugly depantsing for this here team. As it is, I'll think it over and reserve judgment for later.
Cincinnati 30, #9 Rutgers 11
Well, after seeing the UConn game, you knew the Rutgers offense could have bad days, but here? This bad? Oof. The offensive balance was also thrown off for Rutgers, but being down so much so early will do that. Still, Ray Rice only had 54 yards on 18 carries, so it's not like they had to abandon anything productive. I had enough faith in Schiano that he wouldn't let his team experience a letdown, but well, it seems to be a year of them, and I can't really say I'm all THAT surprised.
#10 Auburn 22, Alabama 15
Bama should've won this one, outgaining the Tigers by 103, but they were -3 in turnovers. John Parker Wilson carried the day for the Crimson Tide offense, throwing for 252, 2 TD, and unfortunately, one pick. Between Kenny Irons and Brad Lester, Auburn was able to run for about 130, but all in all, the Crimson Tide was the better team here. They've had a bunch of hard luck, so look for an Alabama rebound in 2007.
#11 Oklahoma 36, Baylor 10
Oh shit. The Sooners are BACK. They held Baylor to...negative 48 rushing yards. Wow.
#12 Louisville 31, South Florida 8
Brian Brohm had a nice day, going 19/33 for 274 and 2 TD. On the USF side, Matt Grothe wasn't that bad either, going 15/31 for 237, a TD and a pick. A nice solid win for Louisville in which, hey, they got their revenge, and Grothe showed enough to give Bulls fans a lot of hope for the future.
#13 Notre Dame 41, Army 9
Another "big" game for Brady Quinn. And, wow, I'm actually impressed that UND held Army to only 150 yards. And I'm not sure what that says about the Irish. Not much, probably.
#14 Boise State 49, Utah State 10
Looks like the system means a lot more than the running back, as something named Brent Denton ran for 125 and 2 TD. Same story as the UND game really: lots of yardage, impressive defensive performance against a bad offense. But I guess that fearsome UNC, Stanford, and service academies schedule is what makes the Irish a national title contender.
#15 Wisconsin 35, Buffalo 3
Big day for the Badgers, unsurprisingly. Offense had a big day, mostly through the air, with Tyler Donovan throwing for 308 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio on 16/26 passing. Buffalo, not very good.
#16 Tennessee 39, Vanderbilt 10
Vandy QB Chris Nickson had one of his worse days, throwing for only 97, a TD, and 2 picks. In contrast, the Tennessee offense pretty much had their way against the Commodores. Erik Ainge had a great day, throwing for 266 and 2 TD on 21/26 passing, while LaMarcus Coker had 10 carries for 126 yards and 2 scores. Big day.
#21 Virginia Tech 27, #18 Wake Forest 6
So whenever I decide someone is the best team in the ACC, they lose. So, just so I can be right: DUKE: the best team in the ACC. The Wake running game got shut down, while VT surprisingly got things done through the air, as Sean Glennon went 14/21 for 252 and 2 TD. Yep. That ACC. So much delicious parity.
#19 Georgia Tech 49, Duke 21
GT has their second team in pretty quickly, so Duke's passing offense being able to do something doesn't really mean much. Yep. Georgia Tech, better than Duke.
#23 Boston College 38, Maryland 16
YES! Maryland actually had a decent day, still getting outgained, but only 373-331. But 4 turnovers buried the Terps' hopes of a win. Just...phew. So much for that.
#24 BYU 42, New Mexico 17
I look at UNM putting up 418 yards, and wonder how BYU pulled this one off. And under BYU, it says 653. Oh. Okay. BYU, a much better team. If the Lobos put up 418, BCS-conference teams may have a field day, but BYU is the class of the Mountain West. Well, obviously. They've already won the conference and all.
...wow. Ohio State won this one statistically, though if there were a fifth quarter, who knows. Where to start, where to start. Can't give enough credit to both teams, especially the Buckeyes, though.
-I was right about the Ohio State run defense: Mike Hart ran for 142 and 3 TD, gaining 6.2 yards per carry.
-But, inexplicably when you look at the statistics, the Michigan run defense was even more vulnerable. It's probably skewed by the big run (though really, the fact that the big run EXISTED proves the point), but Antonio Pittman ran for 139 and an amazingly impressive 7.7 YPC.
-To state the obvious, Troy Smith is one motherfucking big game quarterback. He had a rough patch, but this is probably his most statistically impressive game of the year, ESPECIALLY when you consider the competition. 29/41, 316, 4 TD, INT.
-Michigan...well, looking at Mike Hart's stats, you can't really say they got taken out of their offensive gameplan, but Chad Henne had a better day than probably anyone could imagine: 21/35, 267, 2 TD. Just, again, the run defense oddly let them down.
I could go on, but basically, I want to see it again. There are so many unanswered questions there has to be a sequel. Can the Michigan run defense be this vulnerable again? Or was it just the OSU offensive line, which is probably the best one Michigan's faced all year? Can Troy Smith do it again, and even if he can't, can Chad Henne? This was just tremendous. It's a complete outlier from Michigan's season, but I still give Ohio State all the credit in the world. And Michigan too, it's amazing that they were able to compete in a game where the Buckeyes put up 42 points. Just...wow.
#3 Florida 62, Western Carolina 0
In contrast, scheduling this game takes away any right Florida has to bitch if they don't leapfrog Michigan. I said the same thing about Auburn two years ago, and it's holds here. C'mon, at least schedule a MAC team. Or San Jose State. Or SOMEONE. God. Florida still has a better case than USC, though. Which OSU would YOU rather lose to, Ohio State or Oregon State? God.
#4 USC 23, #17 Cal 9
Cal just got schooled. This was more of a defensive showcase for the Trojans, forcing three Cal turnovers and holding the Golden Bears to only 275 yards. The most impressive USC line was Booty's: 18/31, 238, 2 TD. But don't worry, the Trojans will have a big day against the Notre Dame "defense."
#5 West Virginia 45, Pittsburgh 27
Let's compare rushing yards, kids:
WEST VIRGINIA: 437
PITTSBURGH: -1
About says it all. Tyler Palko still had a good game, throwing for 341 and 2 TD, but it pales in comparison to these monster statlines:
Steve Slaton: 23 car, 215 yards, 2 TD
Pat White: PASSING: 11/16, 204, 2 TD RUSHING: 22 car, 220 yards, 2 TD
That Pitt offense is capable, but that defense...sheesh.
#7 LSU 23, Mississippi 20 (OT)
This looks like one of those fluky Maryland specials, as Ole Miss only gained 195 yards and generally sucked bad. Not really much to say. LSU, in fact, showed they were the much better team here, the score just doesn't reflect that.
#8 Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 14
Oh wow, there's a chink in the armor. MSU outplayed the Backs here, only losing because of TDs off a pick and on a return. Darren McFadden hurt his...second-place Heisman voting chances, going for only 84 yards on 26 carries. If they got LSU on the road and not at home, hoo boy, that could be an ugly depantsing for this here team. As it is, I'll think it over and reserve judgment for later.
Cincinnati 30, #9 Rutgers 11
Well, after seeing the UConn game, you knew the Rutgers offense could have bad days, but here? This bad? Oof. The offensive balance was also thrown off for Rutgers, but being down so much so early will do that. Still, Ray Rice only had 54 yards on 18 carries, so it's not like they had to abandon anything productive. I had enough faith in Schiano that he wouldn't let his team experience a letdown, but well, it seems to be a year of them, and I can't really say I'm all THAT surprised.
#10 Auburn 22, Alabama 15
Bama should've won this one, outgaining the Tigers by 103, but they were -3 in turnovers. John Parker Wilson carried the day for the Crimson Tide offense, throwing for 252, 2 TD, and unfortunately, one pick. Between Kenny Irons and Brad Lester, Auburn was able to run for about 130, but all in all, the Crimson Tide was the better team here. They've had a bunch of hard luck, so look for an Alabama rebound in 2007.
#11 Oklahoma 36, Baylor 10
Oh shit. The Sooners are BACK. They held Baylor to...negative 48 rushing yards. Wow.
#12 Louisville 31, South Florida 8
Brian Brohm had a nice day, going 19/33 for 274 and 2 TD. On the USF side, Matt Grothe wasn't that bad either, going 15/31 for 237, a TD and a pick. A nice solid win for Louisville in which, hey, they got their revenge, and Grothe showed enough to give Bulls fans a lot of hope for the future.
#13 Notre Dame 41, Army 9
Another "big" game for Brady Quinn. And, wow, I'm actually impressed that UND held Army to only 150 yards. And I'm not sure what that says about the Irish. Not much, probably.
#14 Boise State 49, Utah State 10
Looks like the system means a lot more than the running back, as something named Brent Denton ran for 125 and 2 TD. Same story as the UND game really: lots of yardage, impressive defensive performance against a bad offense. But I guess that fearsome UNC, Stanford, and service academies schedule is what makes the Irish a national title contender.
#15 Wisconsin 35, Buffalo 3
Big day for the Badgers, unsurprisingly. Offense had a big day, mostly through the air, with Tyler Donovan throwing for 308 and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio on 16/26 passing. Buffalo, not very good.
#16 Tennessee 39, Vanderbilt 10
Vandy QB Chris Nickson had one of his worse days, throwing for only 97, a TD, and 2 picks. In contrast, the Tennessee offense pretty much had their way against the Commodores. Erik Ainge had a great day, throwing for 266 and 2 TD on 21/26 passing, while LaMarcus Coker had 10 carries for 126 yards and 2 scores. Big day.
#21 Virginia Tech 27, #18 Wake Forest 6
So whenever I decide someone is the best team in the ACC, they lose. So, just so I can be right: DUKE: the best team in the ACC. The Wake running game got shut down, while VT surprisingly got things done through the air, as Sean Glennon went 14/21 for 252 and 2 TD. Yep. That ACC. So much delicious parity.
#19 Georgia Tech 49, Duke 21
GT has their second team in pretty quickly, so Duke's passing offense being able to do something doesn't really mean much. Yep. Georgia Tech, better than Duke.
#23 Boston College 38, Maryland 16
YES! Maryland actually had a decent day, still getting outgained, but only 373-331. But 4 turnovers buried the Terps' hopes of a win. Just...phew. So much for that.
#24 BYU 42, New Mexico 17
I look at UNM putting up 418 yards, and wonder how BYU pulled this one off. And under BYU, it says 653. Oh. Okay. BYU, a much better team. If the Lobos put up 418, BCS-conference teams may have a field day, but BYU is the class of the Mountain West. Well, obviously. They've already won the conference and all.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
MICHIGAN-OHIO STATE
So. It's a huge fuckin' game. Here we go:
I'll start with Michigan. In every game, Michigan has been able to accomplish two things: running the ball, and stopping the opponent from doing so. Two things result from this:
1) The gameplan is designed for close wins. This is why I don't really buy the argument for higher margins of victory making OSU's season more impressive. Of course it does, their whole strategy is to blow the other team out of the water.
2) It's on the opposing quarterback to beat Michigan.
Now, is Troy Smith that quarterback? Brady Quinn isn't, but the Notre Dame offense has allowed twice as many sacks as Ohio State's (and USC's, since I have a feeling I'll be repeating this stat in the BCS title game), 26 to 13. The answer is that Troy Smith definitely COULD be. Only two games that he's had prove otherwise:
vs. Penn State: 12/22, 115, TD, 2 INT
@ Illinois: 13/23, 108, INT
In the Penn State game, Smith was able to at least pull off enough big plays to win the game handily. But will those big plays be there against Michigan? If they weren't against Illinois, and they weren't, then they may not be.
Ohio State is #10 in the country in rushing yards allowed/game, but let's take a look at how the best running backs have done against the Buckeyes:
Northern Illinois's Garrett Wolfe: 172 yards, 6.6 yards per carry
Texas's Selvin Young: 94 yards, 8.5 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 135 yards, 5.6 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 48 yards, 4.4 YPC
Illinois's Pierre Thomas: 58 yards, 7.3 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 57 yards, 4.8 YPC
The amounts may not be high, but those yards per carry aren't a good sign. It's suggesting that Ohio State's low rushing yards allowed aren't due to a good run defense, but the fact that teams need to play catch-up through the air.
For the record, let's look at how many of the same backs did against Michigan, who gives up 1.3 yards a carry to Ohio State's 3.2:
Notre Dame's Darius Walker: 25 yards, 2.5 YPC
Wisconsin's Pat Hill Jr.: 54 yards, 2.7 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 33 yards, 2.5 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 17 yards, 1.9 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 6 yards, 0.9 YPC
Michigan's holding running backs to less yards, often overall and especially per carry, even though their gameplan allows more opportunities for the opposition to run the ball than Ohio State's. And on a side note, the fact that Michigan's overall numbers are so much lower, factoring in that Michigan had to play Wisconsin (another "rushing and defense" team and a bit of a mini-Michigan) where OSU didn't makes things that much more impressive.
So, what have we learned?
-Michigan has more consistently implemented their gameplan than Ohio State has been able to.
-Michigan has a gameplan focused on running the ball and not allowing the other team to.
-Ohio State has a vulnerable run defense when their opposition actually has the opportunity to run the ball with a good running back.
-Michigan has stopped many of the same backs from accomplishing anything.
And this is why I pick Michigan.
Now, to play devil's advocate. In order for Ohio State to win, I believe they need to jump out to an early lead, get momentum on their side, and force Michigan to deviate from their run-based offensive gameplan. The likeliest way this could happen is if Michigan beats themselves. If the Wolverines are too amped up, if the Wolverines make a mistake early resulting in a failed drive or a turnover, and OSU is able to score in one of their first two or so drives, I could see the game being lost for the Wolverines right there. I'm not sure how much of a factor the death of Bo Schembechler will be -- it should be extra motivation for the Wolverines, although it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the team will be even more excited and amped up because someone died.
So, in conclusion, this is...well, obviously, quite the intriguing game. Based on statistics and really, just who I think the better team is, I give Michigan about a 75% chance of winning. However, could I see the scenario outlined above, where Michigan gets the yips and loses the game before the end of the first quarter? Easily. Hence that 25 percent. So, finally:
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 2
And, just for shits and giggles...
Michigan 24, Ohio State 13
Why not?
I'll start with Michigan. In every game, Michigan has been able to accomplish two things: running the ball, and stopping the opponent from doing so. Two things result from this:
1) The gameplan is designed for close wins. This is why I don't really buy the argument for higher margins of victory making OSU's season more impressive. Of course it does, their whole strategy is to blow the other team out of the water.
2) It's on the opposing quarterback to beat Michigan.
Now, is Troy Smith that quarterback? Brady Quinn isn't, but the Notre Dame offense has allowed twice as many sacks as Ohio State's (and USC's, since I have a feeling I'll be repeating this stat in the BCS title game), 26 to 13. The answer is that Troy Smith definitely COULD be. Only two games that he's had prove otherwise:
vs. Penn State: 12/22, 115, TD, 2 INT
@ Illinois: 13/23, 108, INT
In the Penn State game, Smith was able to at least pull off enough big plays to win the game handily. But will those big plays be there against Michigan? If they weren't against Illinois, and they weren't, then they may not be.
Ohio State is #10 in the country in rushing yards allowed/game, but let's take a look at how the best running backs have done against the Buckeyes:
Northern Illinois's Garrett Wolfe: 172 yards, 6.6 yards per carry
Texas's Selvin Young: 94 yards, 8.5 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 135 yards, 5.6 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 48 yards, 4.4 YPC
Illinois's Pierre Thomas: 58 yards, 7.3 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 57 yards, 4.8 YPC
The amounts may not be high, but those yards per carry aren't a good sign. It's suggesting that Ohio State's low rushing yards allowed aren't due to a good run defense, but the fact that teams need to play catch-up through the air.
For the record, let's look at how many of the same backs did against Michigan, who gives up 1.3 yards a carry to Ohio State's 3.2:
Notre Dame's Darius Walker: 25 yards, 2.5 YPC
Wisconsin's Pat Hill Jr.: 54 yards, 2.7 YPC
Penn State's Tony Hunt: 33 yards, 2.5 YPC
Iowa's Albert Young: 17 yards, 1.9 YPC
Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton: 6 yards, 0.9 YPC
Michigan's holding running backs to less yards, often overall and especially per carry, even though their gameplan allows more opportunities for the opposition to run the ball than Ohio State's. And on a side note, the fact that Michigan's overall numbers are so much lower, factoring in that Michigan had to play Wisconsin (another "rushing and defense" team and a bit of a mini-Michigan) where OSU didn't makes things that much more impressive.
So, what have we learned?
-Michigan has more consistently implemented their gameplan than Ohio State has been able to.
-Michigan has a gameplan focused on running the ball and not allowing the other team to.
-Ohio State has a vulnerable run defense when their opposition actually has the opportunity to run the ball with a good running back.
-Michigan has stopped many of the same backs from accomplishing anything.
And this is why I pick Michigan.
Now, to play devil's advocate. In order for Ohio State to win, I believe they need to jump out to an early lead, get momentum on their side, and force Michigan to deviate from their run-based offensive gameplan. The likeliest way this could happen is if Michigan beats themselves. If the Wolverines are too amped up, if the Wolverines make a mistake early resulting in a failed drive or a turnover, and OSU is able to score in one of their first two or so drives, I could see the game being lost for the Wolverines right there. I'm not sure how much of a factor the death of Bo Schembechler will be -- it should be extra motivation for the Wolverines, although it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the team will be even more excited and amped up because someone died.
So, in conclusion, this is...well, obviously, quite the intriguing game. Based on statistics and really, just who I think the better team is, I give Michigan about a 75% chance of winning. However, could I see the scenario outlined above, where Michigan gets the yips and loses the game before the end of the first quarter? Easily. Hence that 25 percent. So, finally:
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 2
And, just for shits and giggles...
Michigan 24, Ohio State 13
Why not?
Week 12 Rundown: Saturday
12:00 PM
Western Carolina @ #3 Florida (9-1)
Gee, I wonder.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Buffalo (2-8) @ #15 Wisconsin (10-1)
GEE. I WONDER.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
Maryland (8-2) @ #23 Boston College (8-2)
BC's somewhat overrated, but I still imagine Maryland's luck has to run out sometime. I'll be wary, but I absolutely cannot pick the Terps unless they're playing, say, Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
Connecticut (4-5) @ Syracuse (3-7)
This worries me. Unless they upset Louisville, UConn needs to win this and against Cincy at home next week to be bowl-eligible. Fun fact: UConn has never lost a home game in November since going I-A, so the Cincinnati game doesn't worry me. If the UConn I saw against Pitt shows up here, it's no contest. But can they do it on the road? If the typical UConn team of this year shows up, it's about a pick 'em. I probably would pick them anyway, but the Huskies' performance last week only cements it.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Indiana (5-6) @ Purdue (7-4)
Who knows with Indiana. Purdue is one of the many all-offense, no-defense teams that seem in vogue. Or is that en vogue? Whatever. I'll bet against the "good Indiana" showing up away from home, but if the Hoosiers do, they could easily blow Purdue out.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
Iowa (6-5) @ Minnesota (5-6)
I think I've officially given up on that Iowa breakthrough game where they look like the superbadass team that I've always felt they could show up as at any moment. I'm still picking them to win, since Minnesota is terribly mediocre (if even that), but it probably won't be as lopsided as it should.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-5) @ Virginia (4-6)
Virginia has 4 wins? How the hell did that happen? Let me guess...I remember the Wyoming game, Duke and UNC probably, and I'll say a I-AA. Now to look it up...oh, NC State. Well, good for them. Miami actually hasn't been all that awful lately, with their losses mostly coming due to bad luck rather than a lack of effort. If they lose here, then they're just cursed. Or Wright or James got injured.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (4-7) @ Penn State (7-4)
Don't worry Spartans, it'll be over soon.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-7) @ North Carolina (1-9)
You know what? I'm picking the upset. NCSU's dead in the water, as the aforementioned loss to Virginia shows, and...okay, I can say this. Deep breaths, deep breaths. Okay. Here I go. AND....Joe Dailey has been pretty decent lately (ignore the GT game). Okay, I'm going to stop before I blow my own mind anymore.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:10 PM
#11 Oklahoma (8-2) @ Baylor (4-7)
Baylor wouldn't have a chance with Shawn Bell. Without, sigh. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4
12:30 PM
#16 Tennessee (7-3) @ Vanderbilt (4-7)
If Vanderbilt could beat Tennessee last year in Knoxville, I definitely think this year's Commodores have a puncher's chance. Tennessee's weakness is the run defense, and Vandy is actually a decent running team, but, well, there's a difference between Vandy and Arkansas.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (7-3) @ South Carolina (5-5)
MTSU's the class of the Sun Belt, not that that 6-0 conference record doesn't make that immediately apparent. Louisiana-Lafayette had that fluke win over Houston, so it's not like a SBC team can't pull off an upset, but I really doubt it'll be here. SC's a pretty good team, they've just had some bad luck here and there. And this is a game where they can afford it.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Temple (1-10) @ Navy (7-3)
Ah, hell, let's just name Temple the new Temple.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Illinois (2-9) @ Northwestern (3-8)
Intriguing. Illinois hung close with Ohio State, but NW actually put up a lot more yards in getting blown out. I'll go with the Wildcats since they have the propensity to put up more yards, and I'm not sure the Illini can keep up.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Monroe (2-7) @ Kentucky (6-4)
Seven wins? Really?
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
1:30 PM
Duke (0-10) @ #19 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Duke, sadly, is no UNC. As much as I hate the basketball team, I kind of have some pity for football. And it will continue here.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Central Florida (3-7) @ Tulane (3-7)
Southern Miss held Tulane to 85 total yards last week. At Tulane. The USM defense is good, but not THAT good. UCF is no peach, but I have more confidence in them than the Green Wave.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Western Michigan (7-3) @ Florida State (5-5)
Now that Jeff Bowden's gone, watch FSU put up forty-plus. And I'm not sure if I'm kidding. They really should win this game. If they don't, then...well, I wouldn't be surprised. God, I wouldn't be surprised.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Houston (8-3) @ Memphis (1-9)
Well, Houston DID lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That's about the only hope for the Tigers here. If they're even as good as Louisiana-Lafayette.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Missouri (7-3) @ Iowa State (3-8)
I can't imagine ISU is this bad, so I can see some regression (well, progression) to the mean and the resulting upset. Probably not gonna happen, though.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
Oklahoma State (6-4) @ Texas Tech (6-5)
Oh God, this is gonna be a shootout. Honestly, this is about even, and I can't really give much analysis past "HOLY FUCK! PASSING YARDS!" Push goes to the home team.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#8 Arkansas (9-1) @ Mississippi State (3-7)
Arkansas is definitely capable of being upset. Doubt this is the team to do it, although to the Bulldogs' credit, they have improved from the "FUCKING HORRIBLE" they were earlier in the year.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Army (3-7) @ #13 Notre Dame (9-1)
Man, how does Notre Dame do it against this SUPER-HARD INDEPENDENT SCHEDULE? The Irish are going to win, but I think it's a damning statement that I would barely bat an eye if whoever the Army QB is (is it still David Pevoto?) threw for over 300.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Utah State (1-9) @ #13 Boise State (10-0)
Ian Johnson will probably be out with a collapsed lung. Hell, take out the lung and put it at running back, the Broncos would probably win.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (6-4) @ Rice (5-5)
Rice's win over Tulsa was luck, but the Owls are actually a decent team, and definitely one capable of beating ECU. Still, the Pirates offense is humming, and I have more confidence in them just because, you know, Rice? Really? The Owls winning wouldn't shock me at all, though, especially in the parity-tacular C-USA.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (7-3) @ SMU (5-5)
Tulsa's the much better team, and the Golden Hurricane will probably be focused after that Rice loss. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (11-0) @ #2 Ohio State (11-0)
This one's getting its own post.
#10 Auburn (9-2) @ Alabama (6-5)
Auburn is again an inconsistent team in my eyes. Hm...Auburn playing a highly-motivated team with a strong defense, but a suspect offense that has looked good at times earlier in the year? HMMM. Now where did I see that before...
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-5) @ Oregon (7-3)
Arizona's Cal win was purely because of mistakes by the Golden Bears, and their game against Wazzou was about even. Does Arizona have a chance? Yes. But is Oregon the better team? Yes.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (7-4) @ Kansas (5-5)
I'm shocked that Kansas is .500, I could've sworn they were worse. Still, bleah. KSU, oddly enough to me after that Illinois State near-loss to start the year, seems like an above-average team. KU definitely has a chance at home, but I don't really have that much confidence in the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (6-4) @ Stanford (1-9)
Five words: Stanford is still really bad.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
New Mexico (5-5) @ #24 BYU (8-2)
UNM, like KSU, has gone from embarrassing themselves against a I-AA to being a pretty decent little team. The Lobos will probably get killed here, though.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4
San Diego State (2-7) @ TCU (7-2)
Last week's win over UNLV showed that SDSU still has a pulse. TCU could put an end to that here, though.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Wyoming (5-6) @ UNLV (1-9)
I have a feeling in my bones that says "upset", but I think Wyoming will be motivated, staring bowl eligibility in the face against an underperforming team.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UTEP (5-5) @ Marshall (4-6)
Marshall, bleh. They've gone from "pretty bad" to "kind of okay, I guess" over the year. UTEP's quite underperformed this year; that could change here. Unless Marshall gets really motivated because of their movie. Whenever that's out. Is it out soon? Who knows. Or really cares all that much. Except Marshall fans.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Idaho (4-6) @ Fresno State (2-7)
They've gotta. Right?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) @ Florida International (0-9)
Their coach just quit, so FIU is dead in the water. Not really much to say here. Smell the exciting Sun Belt action.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3
6:45 PM
Washington (4-7) @ Washington State (6-5)
UW will be motivated and all, but that loss to Stanford pretty much shows what happens when a one-man team loses that one man.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
#21 Virginia Tech (8-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (9-1)
Virginia Tech is a talented team and can obviously win, but Wake Forest is the best team in the ACC. Oh crap, why's I say that. Dammit, now my brain is bleeding.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Arkansas State (5-5) @ Troy (5-4)
Troy's undefeated in the Sun Belt, but they haven't faced MTSU (the other SBC undefeated), or Arkansas State, who I feel is their next-best Sun Belt competitor. ASU has a pretty good running attack, and I have a pretty good hunch.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-7) @ North Texas (3-7)
I'll go with the team not playing for a lame duck coach.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
South Florida (7-3) @ #12 Louisville (8-1)
Kind of weird that this is between the #3 and #4 teams in the Big East. USF would have a chance at home, as last year showed, but between Louisville wanting revenge for that game, revenge for the Rutgers game, and just being a better team, watch out now.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
Utah (6-4) @ Air Force (4-5)
Two obnoxiously inconsistent teams. I'd give Utah the talent advantage, plus the Utes are on a bit of a roll.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#9 Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincinnati (5-5)
This could be a trap game, as Cincinnati is a thoroughly decent team. Perhaps Cincinnati can pull off the upset by lulling Rutgers to sleep since the Bearcats are so boring and there is nothing to say about them.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#17 Cal (8-2) @ #4 USC (8-1)
USC's the better team. Cal's loss to Arizona may have helped the Golden Bears here, though; they'll be focused, and they actually played much better than the Wildcats, with Nate Longshore's 3 picks being what cost them the game. Still, at USC? Meh.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (3-7) @ #7 LSU (8-2)
This could be quite the fun whooping.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Nevada (7-3) @ Louisiana Tech (3-7)
Kind of a boring game to talk about. Nevada's a very good WAC team. Louisiana Tech, very much not so.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
UAB (3-7) @ Southern Miss (6-4)
The average USM team this year would beat UAB, especially at home. The fact that they just finished shutting Tulane the heck down makes this pick that much easier.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
10:15 PM
UCLA (5-5) @ Arizona State (6-4)
What a kind of uninteresting game between two teams with kind of an offense. These two just vanish and show up intermittently, so I'll just call it a crapshoot and...hey, why not, flip a coin. Make it interactive. For me. Who is typing this. Heads UCLA, tails Arizona State. Because Sun Devils have tails. Heads.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
11:05 PM
San Jose State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-2)
Time to test out a new catchphrase. THE COLT BRENNAN MOTHERFUCKING LIGHTSHOW! WITH LASERS! AND LIGHTS! AND TOUCHDOWN PASSES!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Western Carolina @ #3 Florida (9-1)
Gee, I wonder.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 5
Buffalo (2-8) @ #15 Wisconsin (10-1)
GEE. I WONDER.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5
Maryland (8-2) @ #23 Boston College (8-2)
BC's somewhat overrated, but I still imagine Maryland's luck has to run out sometime. I'll be wary, but I absolutely cannot pick the Terps unless they're playing, say, Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2
Connecticut (4-5) @ Syracuse (3-7)
This worries me. Unless they upset Louisville, UConn needs to win this and against Cincy at home next week to be bowl-eligible. Fun fact: UConn has never lost a home game in November since going I-A, so the Cincinnati game doesn't worry me. If the UConn I saw against Pitt shows up here, it's no contest. But can they do it on the road? If the typical UConn team of this year shows up, it's about a pick 'em. I probably would pick them anyway, but the Huskies' performance last week only cements it.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1
Indiana (5-6) @ Purdue (7-4)
Who knows with Indiana. Purdue is one of the many all-offense, no-defense teams that seem in vogue. Or is that en vogue? Whatever. I'll bet against the "good Indiana" showing up away from home, but if the Hoosiers do, they could easily blow Purdue out.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1
Iowa (6-5) @ Minnesota (5-6)
I think I've officially given up on that Iowa breakthrough game where they look like the superbadass team that I've always felt they could show up as at any moment. I'm still picking them to win, since Minnesota is terribly mediocre (if even that), but it probably won't be as lopsided as it should.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-5) @ Virginia (4-6)
Virginia has 4 wins? How the hell did that happen? Let me guess...I remember the Wyoming game, Duke and UNC probably, and I'll say a I-AA. Now to look it up...oh, NC State. Well, good for them. Miami actually hasn't been all that awful lately, with their losses mostly coming due to bad luck rather than a lack of effort. If they lose here, then they're just cursed. Or Wright or James got injured.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3
Michigan State (4-7) @ Penn State (7-4)
Don't worry Spartans, it'll be over soon.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-7) @ North Carolina (1-9)
You know what? I'm picking the upset. NCSU's dead in the water, as the aforementioned loss to Virginia shows, and...okay, I can say this. Deep breaths, deep breaths. Okay. Here I go. AND....Joe Dailey has been pretty decent lately (ignore the GT game). Okay, I'm going to stop before I blow my own mind anymore.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1
12:10 PM
#11 Oklahoma (8-2) @ Baylor (4-7)
Baylor wouldn't have a chance with Shawn Bell. Without, sigh. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4
12:30 PM
#16 Tennessee (7-3) @ Vanderbilt (4-7)
If Vanderbilt could beat Tennessee last year in Knoxville, I definitely think this year's Commodores have a puncher's chance. Tennessee's weakness is the run defense, and Vandy is actually a decent running team, but, well, there's a difference between Vandy and Arkansas.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 2
Middle Tennessee State (7-3) @ South Carolina (5-5)
MTSU's the class of the Sun Belt, not that that 6-0 conference record doesn't make that immediately apparent. Louisiana-Lafayette had that fluke win over Houston, so it's not like a SBC team can't pull off an upset, but I really doubt it'll be here. SC's a pretty good team, they've just had some bad luck here and there. And this is a game where they can afford it.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3
Temple (1-10) @ Navy (7-3)
Ah, hell, let's just name Temple the new Temple.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
1:00 PM
Illinois (2-9) @ Northwestern (3-8)
Intriguing. Illinois hung close with Ohio State, but NW actually put up a lot more yards in getting blown out. I'll go with the Wildcats since they have the propensity to put up more yards, and I'm not sure the Illini can keep up.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 1
Louisiana-Monroe (2-7) @ Kentucky (6-4)
Seven wins? Really?
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3
1:30 PM
Duke (0-10) @ #19 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Duke, sadly, is no UNC. As much as I hate the basketball team, I kind of have some pity for football. And it will continue here.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4
2:00 PM
Central Florida (3-7) @ Tulane (3-7)
Southern Miss held Tulane to 85 total yards last week. At Tulane. The USM defense is good, but not THAT good. UCF is no peach, but I have more confidence in them than the Green Wave.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1
Western Michigan (7-3) @ Florida State (5-5)
Now that Jeff Bowden's gone, watch FSU put up forty-plus. And I'm not sure if I'm kidding. They really should win this game. If they don't, then...well, I wouldn't be surprised. God, I wouldn't be surprised.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2
Houston (8-3) @ Memphis (1-9)
Well, Houston DID lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That's about the only hope for the Tigers here. If they're even as good as Louisiana-Lafayette.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4
Missouri (7-3) @ Iowa State (3-8)
I can't imagine ISU is this bad, so I can see some regression (well, progression) to the mean and the resulting upset. Probably not gonna happen, though.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2
Oklahoma State (6-4) @ Texas Tech (6-5)
Oh God, this is gonna be a shootout. Honestly, this is about even, and I can't really give much analysis past "HOLY FUCK! PASSING YARDS!" Push goes to the home team.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1
2:30 PM
#8 Arkansas (9-1) @ Mississippi State (3-7)
Arkansas is definitely capable of being upset. Doubt this is the team to do it, although to the Bulldogs' credit, they have improved from the "FUCKING HORRIBLE" they were earlier in the year.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3
Army (3-7) @ #13 Notre Dame (9-1)
Man, how does Notre Dame do it against this SUPER-HARD INDEPENDENT SCHEDULE? The Irish are going to win, but I think it's a damning statement that I would barely bat an eye if whoever the Army QB is (is it still David Pevoto?) threw for over 300.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
3:00 PM
Utah State (1-9) @ #13 Boise State (10-0)
Ian Johnson will probably be out with a collapsed lung. Hell, take out the lung and put it at running back, the Broncos would probably win.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4
East Carolina (6-4) @ Rice (5-5)
Rice's win over Tulsa was luck, but the Owls are actually a decent team, and definitely one capable of beating ECU. Still, the Pirates offense is humming, and I have more confidence in them just because, you know, Rice? Really? The Owls winning wouldn't shock me at all, though, especially in the parity-tacular C-USA.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1
Tulsa (7-3) @ SMU (5-5)
Tulsa's the much better team, and the Golden Hurricane will probably be focused after that Rice loss. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (11-0) @ #2 Ohio State (11-0)
This one's getting its own post.
#10 Auburn (9-2) @ Alabama (6-5)
Auburn is again an inconsistent team in my eyes. Hm...Auburn playing a highly-motivated team with a strong defense, but a suspect offense that has looked good at times earlier in the year? HMMM. Now where did I see that before...
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1
Arizona (5-5) @ Oregon (7-3)
Arizona's Cal win was purely because of mistakes by the Golden Bears, and their game against Wazzou was about even. Does Arizona have a chance? Yes. But is Oregon the better team? Yes.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2
Kansas State (7-4) @ Kansas (5-5)
I'm shocked that Kansas is .500, I could've sworn they were worse. Still, bleah. KSU, oddly enough to me after that Illinois State near-loss to start the year, seems like an above-average team. KU definitely has a chance at home, but I don't really have that much confidence in the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2
Oregon State (6-4) @ Stanford (1-9)
Five words: Stanford is still really bad.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
New Mexico (5-5) @ #24 BYU (8-2)
UNM, like KSU, has gone from embarrassing themselves against a I-AA to being a pretty decent little team. The Lobos will probably get killed here, though.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4
San Diego State (2-7) @ TCU (7-2)
Last week's win over UNLV showed that SDSU still has a pulse. TCU could put an end to that here, though.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3
Wyoming (5-6) @ UNLV (1-9)
I have a feeling in my bones that says "upset", but I think Wyoming will be motivated, staring bowl eligibility in the face against an underperforming team.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1
4:30 PM
UTEP (5-5) @ Marshall (4-6)
Marshall, bleh. They've gone from "pretty bad" to "kind of okay, I guess" over the year. UTEP's quite underperformed this year; that could change here. Unless Marshall gets really motivated because of their movie. Whenever that's out. Is it out soon? Who knows. Or really cares all that much. Except Marshall fans.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
5:00 PM
Idaho (4-6) @ Fresno State (2-7)
They've gotta. Right?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) @ Florida International (0-9)
Their coach just quit, so FIU is dead in the water. Not really much to say here. Smell the exciting Sun Belt action.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3
6:45 PM
Washington (4-7) @ Washington State (6-5)
UW will be motivated and all, but that loss to Stanford pretty much shows what happens when a one-man team loses that one man.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3
7:00 PM
#21 Virginia Tech (8-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (9-1)
Virginia Tech is a talented team and can obviously win, but Wake Forest is the best team in the ACC. Oh crap, why's I say that. Dammit, now my brain is bleeding.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1
Arkansas State (5-5) @ Troy (5-4)
Troy's undefeated in the Sun Belt, but they haven't faced MTSU (the other SBC undefeated), or Arkansas State, who I feel is their next-best Sun Belt competitor. ASU has a pretty good running attack, and I have a pretty good hunch.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
Florida Atlantic (3-7) @ North Texas (3-7)
I'll go with the team not playing for a lame duck coach.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
South Florida (7-3) @ #12 Louisville (8-1)
Kind of weird that this is between the #3 and #4 teams in the Big East. USF would have a chance at home, as last year showed, but between Louisville wanting revenge for that game, revenge for the Rutgers game, and just being a better team, watch out now.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
Utah (6-4) @ Air Force (4-5)
Two obnoxiously inconsistent teams. I'd give Utah the talent advantage, plus the Utes are on a bit of a roll.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
7:45 PM
#9 Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincinnati (5-5)
This could be a trap game, as Cincinnati is a thoroughly decent team. Perhaps Cincinnati can pull off the upset by lulling Rutgers to sleep since the Bearcats are so boring and there is nothing to say about them.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2
8:00 PM
#17 Cal (8-2) @ #4 USC (8-1)
USC's the better team. Cal's loss to Arizona may have helped the Golden Bears here, though; they'll be focused, and they actually played much better than the Wildcats, with Nate Longshore's 3 picks being what cost them the game. Still, at USC? Meh.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
Mississippi (3-7) @ #7 LSU (8-2)
This could be quite the fun whooping.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Nevada (7-3) @ Louisiana Tech (3-7)
Kind of a boring game to talk about. Nevada's a very good WAC team. Louisiana Tech, very much not so.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3
UAB (3-7) @ Southern Miss (6-4)
The average USM team this year would beat UAB, especially at home. The fact that they just finished shutting Tulane the heck down makes this pick that much easier.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3
10:15 PM
UCLA (5-5) @ Arizona State (6-4)
What a kind of uninteresting game between two teams with kind of an offense. These two just vanish and show up intermittently, so I'll just call it a crapshoot and...hey, why not, flip a coin. Make it interactive. For me. Who is typing this. Heads UCLA, tails Arizona State. Because Sun Devils have tails. Heads.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1
11:05 PM
San Jose State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-2)
Time to test out a new catchphrase. THE COLT BRENNAN MOTHERFUCKING LIGHTSHOW! WITH LASERS! AND LIGHTS! AND TOUCHDOWN PASSES!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Week 12 Rundown: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
7:30 PM
#5 West Virginia (8-1) @ Pittsburgh (6-4)
Pittsburgh's sliding. They still have some talent, particularly QB Tyler Palko and RB LaRod Stephens-Dowling, both of which looked good against UConn. However, that Pitt defense? Ehhhh, not so much. If the defense steps up, I could actually see the upset, but that's a big if.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Akron (5-5) @ Ohio (7-3)
Ohio's on a five-game winning streak, the last two of which were solid but unimpressive. Akron's a solid if consistent team, and QB Luke Getsy's a good one. Ohio's probably the better team at this point, and definitely the hotter one, but it really could go either way.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
6:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (1-9) @ Kent State (5-5)
Kent's tailing off horribly, but EMU has just been crap this year. I give EMU a fighting chance because of MAC parity, but if they can't win most of their other games, I don't think they can win this one on the road.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Central Michigan (7-3) @ Northern Illinois (5-5)
Garrett Wolfe's tailed off pretty bad, and CMU's the class of the MAC. Weird, huh? Wolfe is still capable of having a huge game against anyone, anytime, and this fits into both those extremely broad categories, so I give the Huskies a chance. CMU's the clear fave, though.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 2
7:30 PM
#5 West Virginia (8-1) @ Pittsburgh (6-4)
Pittsburgh's sliding. They still have some talent, particularly QB Tyler Palko and RB LaRod Stephens-Dowling, both of which looked good against UConn. However, that Pitt defense? Ehhhh, not so much. If the defense steps up, I could actually see the upset, but that's a big if.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Akron (5-5) @ Ohio (7-3)
Ohio's on a five-game winning streak, the last two of which were solid but unimpressive. Akron's a solid if consistent team, and QB Luke Getsy's a good one. Ohio's probably the better team at this point, and definitely the hotter one, but it really could go either way.
My Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY
6:00 PM
Eastern Michigan (1-9) @ Kent State (5-5)
Kent's tailing off horribly, but EMU has just been crap this year. I give EMU a fighting chance because of MAC parity, but if they can't win most of their other games, I don't think they can win this one on the road.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 3
Central Michigan (7-3) @ Northern Illinois (5-5)
Garrett Wolfe's tailed off pretty bad, and CMU's the class of the MAC. Weird, huh? Wolfe is still capable of having a huge game against anyone, anytime, and this fits into both those extremely broad categories, so I give the Huskies a chance. CMU's the clear fave, though.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 2
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Feely Top 25: After Week 11
#1 Michigan (11-0, #1 LW)
#2 Ohio State (11-0, #2)
#3 Florida (9-1, #6)
#4 USC (8-1, #7)
#5 West Virginia (8-1, #8)
#6 Texas (9-2, #3)
#7 LSU (8-2, #10)
#8 Arkansas (9-1, #11)
#9 Rutgers (9-0, #17)
#10 Auburn (9-2, #4)
#11 Oklahoma (8-2, #14)
#12 Louisville (8-1, #5)
#13 Notre Dame (9-1, #12)
#14 Boise State (10-0, #13)
#15 Wisconsin (10-1, #16)
#16 Tennessee (7-3, #15)
#17 Cal (8-2, #9)
#18 Wake Forest (9-1, #23)
#19 Georgia Tech (8-2, #18)
#20 Nebraska (8-3, #22)
#21 Virginia Tech (8-2, #20)
#22 Texas A&M (8-3, #19)
#23 Boston College (8-2, #24)
#24 BYU (8-2, --)
#25 Clemson (8-3, #25)
NOTES!
3-9 took forever to figure out. Yes, I think LSU is better than Arkansas. WVU, again, shouldn't have lost the Louisville game. I don't get why Texas is out of the top 10 in the actual polls; they're still an elite team and McCoy should hopefully be fine after the bye week.
Rutgers is legit, and moves up accordingly.
Oklahoma is back -- that defense is playing well, and that offense seems to be able to get things done one way or another.
Notre Dame has no defense. Just to remind you.
Tennessee's as good as they've ever been, Arkansas was just a bad matchup.
After GT's horrible day, Wake is actually the best team in the ACC. I'm as confused as you are.
Oregon or Maryland would probably be #26. Clemson struggled, but they're still better than the ducks, and Maryland, again, is a total fraud.
#2 Ohio State (11-0, #2)
#3 Florida (9-1, #6)
#4 USC (8-1, #7)
#5 West Virginia (8-1, #8)
#6 Texas (9-2, #3)
#7 LSU (8-2, #10)
#8 Arkansas (9-1, #11)
#9 Rutgers (9-0, #17)
#10 Auburn (9-2, #4)
#11 Oklahoma (8-2, #14)
#12 Louisville (8-1, #5)
#13 Notre Dame (9-1, #12)
#14 Boise State (10-0, #13)
#15 Wisconsin (10-1, #16)
#16 Tennessee (7-3, #15)
#17 Cal (8-2, #9)
#18 Wake Forest (9-1, #23)
#19 Georgia Tech (8-2, #18)
#20 Nebraska (8-3, #22)
#21 Virginia Tech (8-2, #20)
#22 Texas A&M (8-3, #19)
#23 Boston College (8-2, #24)
#24 BYU (8-2, --)
#25 Clemson (8-3, #25)
NOTES!
3-9 took forever to figure out. Yes, I think LSU is better than Arkansas. WVU, again, shouldn't have lost the Louisville game. I don't get why Texas is out of the top 10 in the actual polls; they're still an elite team and McCoy should hopefully be fine after the bye week.
Rutgers is legit, and moves up accordingly.
Oklahoma is back -- that defense is playing well, and that offense seems to be able to get things done one way or another.
Notre Dame has no defense. Just to remind you.
Tennessee's as good as they've ever been, Arkansas was just a bad matchup.
After GT's horrible day, Wake is actually the best team in the ACC. I'm as confused as you are.
Oregon or Maryland would probably be #26. Clemson struggled, but they're still better than the ducks, and Maryland, again, is a total fraud.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Week 11 Recap
#1 Michigan 34, Indiana 3
...the Steve Breaston show? The Michigan WR was probably offensive POTG, with 3 catches for 103 yards and a score. Mike Hart only had 19 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown, but that's still fine. And better than Troy Smith's worst games. I really don't get why Hart's not in the Heisman discussion, especially over Brady Quinn. Oh, and the Michigan defense had a big day, holding the inconsistent if pretty good Indiana offense to just 165 yards.
#2 Ohio State 54, Northwestern 10
318 yards for Northwestern? At least it was mostly through the air, or else I'd be even more concerned for the Michigan game. But there's obviously good news, as Troy Smith was back to his Heismanesque form, going 12/19 for 185, 4 TDs and a pick. If Smith had put up another bad game, there'd be very little drama for the Michigan game (well, except for all the, you know, drama), but OSU's kept some intrigue going.
Kansas State 45, #3 Texas 42
Texas actually still gained 421 yards, so the game was about statistically even, but one only wonders how they would've done with Colt McCoy. McCoy was actually 4/4 for 51 yards before being knocked down, and even though Jevan Snead threw for 190 and a TD, it was on only 13/30 passing. KSU QB Josh Freeman comprised the whole of the Wildcat offense pretty much, gaining 269 and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. KSU has pretty much erased any images of that close season-opening win against Illinois State, while the McCoy injury puts some intrigue into that game against Texas A&M.
Georgia 37, #4 Auburn 15
Just when Auburn had put all my concerns about inconsistency to rest, Brandon Cox implodes for only 35 yards, a TD and 4 INT on 4/12 passing. The biggest thing to take from this game is Matthew Stafford finally having a good game, going 14/20 for 219 and a score. Georgia has some optimism going into the GT game, while Auburn's back down to what I thought of them a few weeks ago.
#17 Rutgers 28, #5 Louisville 25
Rutgers outplayed Louisville. RUTGERS. Rutgers? RUTGERS. Mike Teel was better than his 8/21 line would suggest, and Ray Rice is back to legit Heisman candidate after running for 131 and 2 scores. Just the way Rutgers came back from such a miserable first half, and how they were able to constantly get to Brohm...God. RUTGERS. They're legit, people.
#6 Florida 17, South Carolina 16
437-412 was the final yardage battle, so it was as close as the score. SC's two TDs surprisingly came on the ground, thanks to Mike Davis and his 94 yards. Both QBs had good days. There's really not much to say from the numbers, but Florida needs to tighten things up on defense. SC is a good team, but they seem starcrossed this year. Almost the anti-Maryland, but we'll get to them.
#7 USC 35, #21 Oregon 10
Oregon won both the turnover battle (3-2) and the yardage battle (407-356), but the latter is somewhat misleading. Both of Oregon's turnovers came in their own half of the field, so USC didn't have to go far to score. Not all that one-sided, as the Ducks were obviously able to get some stuff done against the USC D, but the Trojans seem pretty clearly the class of the conference, especially after the Cal loss. Line of the game: USC RB Chauncey Washington's 15 carries for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns.
#8 West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 24
Yawn. Cincinnati's a decent team, Slaton (148, 2 TD) and White (93, 2 TD) run over everyone. Nothing to see here, move along.
Arizona 24, #9 California 20
Only line of the game that matters is Cal QB Nate Longshore's: 17/36, 250, TD, 3 INT. Those 3 picks don't happen, Cal probably wins the game. Not a huge reason for worry for the Golden Bears; they're still a very good team, but downgraded from BCS contender to, well, that. Arizona could make a bowl!
#10 LSU 28, Alabama 14
Pretty close game, but LSU was the better team easily. John Parker Wilson was essentially the entire Crimson Tide offense throwing for 291 and 2 scores with a pick. JaMarcus Russell had an insane day, however, completing 18 of 21 for 207 and 3 scores. LSU is an insanely good 2-loss team. Bama...meh.
#11 Arkansas 31, #15 Tennessee 14
Tennessee has such bad rush defense that the Arkansas running back threw for a touchdown. Or something like that. So, yeah, Darren McFadden's line: 30 carries, 181 yards, 2 TD, and a 12 yard TD pass to Marcus Monk. A bad matchup for Tennessee, so nothing really's proven beyond the already known "these are two very good SEC teams."
#12 Notre Dame 39, Air Force 17
Same old, same old. Brady Quinn has another big day (14/19, 207, 4 TD) against a subpar defense, and the defense raises a lot of questions. This week's: How does Shaun Carney pass for almost as many yards (205) as Quinn?
#13 Boise State 23, San Jose State 20
SJSU QB Adam Tafralis (17/23, 273, 2 TD) had a good day, while Jared Zabransky (14/20, 181, INT) had one fairly worse. Of course, Zabransky was bailed out by RB Ian Johnson (29 car, 149 yards, TD), but the most important number for Johnson is probably "1 collapsed lung." The Broncos should be fine against Utah State, but that regular season finale at Nevada now looms.
#14 Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 24
Nice rebound game for Paul Thompson, I'd say, as he had 309 and a 2/1 TD/INT on 24/31 passing. No other spectacular stat lines, but the OU defense had a good day, holding TTU to pretty much only their 250 passing yards. Which is pretty good for playing against the Red Raiders. Sooners are back, baby.
#16 Wisconsin 24, Iowa 21
Wisconsin failed to pull a mini-Michigan again and stop the Iowa run, but the Hawkeyes ran decently against the Wolverines, so...nevermind. Drew Tate had a good game (10/31, 170, 3/1 TD/INT), but his game looks worse when compared to Badger backup Tyler Donovan (17/24, 228, 2 TD). Wisconsin's obviously a pretty good team. Iowa, on the other hand, is just decent. No shame in that.
#18 Georgia Tech 7, North Carolina 0
...ugh. GT RB Tashard Choice (32 car, 119 yards, TD) had the only game worth mentioning.
#22 Nebraska 28, #19 Texas A&M 27
About even. Stephen McGee rebounded from a bad day to throw for 244 and run for 58, so good for him. Two pretty good teams, and if they played this game ten times, it'd probably go 5-5. Yep.
#20 Virginia Tech 23, Kent State 0
Three FGs and one of the TDs was by the VT defense. A rare blowout that doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
#23 Wake Forest 30, Florida State 0
Wow. Wake's defense just dominated here, holding FSU to 180 yards and forcing 4 turnovers. Just complete domination. Or complete offensive incompetency by FSU. Either or. I still don't buy Wake as a terribly elite team, but they're sadly as legit as anyone in the ACC, especially after GT and VT's dismal performances this week. They sure as hell beat Maryland.
#24 Boston College 28, Duke 7
Good for them. Not much to say. BC is indeed better than Duke.
#25 Clemson 20, NC State 14
Not exactly confidence-inspiring. Clemson needs QB Will Proctor to play well to return to form, but Proctor only had 146 yards and threw for a 1/2 TD/INT ratio. Thankfully for the Tigers, NCSU's Dan Evans played worse, going for only 95 and 2 picks. Basically, Clemson's playing at the end of the year how they usually do in the beginning.
Akron 31, Buffalo 16
Nice day for Zips QB Luke Getsy: 13/20, 272, 4 TD. Yep.
Arizona State 47, Washington State 14
Well these two teams are reversing fortunes quite quickly, as this was complete ASU domination. Wazzou could only gain 59 rushing yards, and Sun Devils QB Rudy Carpenter had a huge day, going 15/24 for 339 and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. Damned if I know what to make of the Pac 10.
Oklahoma State 66, Baylor 24
Baylor QB Blake Szymanski (could've sworn it had more consonants last week) was a one-man team, but unfortunately got forced into 3 picks. The OK State racked up over 400 yards thanks to a rotating cast of characters. Baylor's lost without injured QB Shawn Bell, OK State could be a contender next year.
BYU 55, Wyoming 7
Completely one-sided. BYU QB John Beck: 20/26, 313, 2 TD. Yep, the Cougars are the second-best mid-major in the country.
Central Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7
Pretty one-sided. CMU's easily the elite team in the MAC. And I'm not sure what to make of that. Oh well, they'll probably lose next week. Stupid MAC.
Utah 35, Colorado State 22
The Utes had 526 yards, proving again that they are frustratingly inconsistent.
Connecticut 46, Pittsburgh 45 (2 OT)
Won on a two-point conversion, this will be the best game this year nobody saw. Including the 1/3 of my fellow UConn fans that left during the third quarter. For shame. DJ Hernandez looked like an actual I-A quarterback, going 20/29 for 164 and 4 TD, and ran for 130. And frosh RB Donald Brown gave even more hope for the Huskies' future, running for 205 and 2 TD. Really, the Huskies winning was astounding, especially in such an offensive shootout, as they failed to contain Pitt QB Tyler Palko (20/25, 234, 3 TD and 1 rushing) and RB LaRod Stephens-Dowling (154, 2 TD). Regarding this year, UConn's staring bowl-eligibility in the face, while Pitt is sliding as badly as anyone in the nation. As for the future, UConn's is now considerably brighter than it was (thanks to having an actual QB), while Pitt? Well, Wannstedt's recruiting gives reasons for optimism, the question is if Wannstedt's coaching will negate it.
Hawaii 61, Louisiana Tech 17
Colt Brennan is once again scary: 27/40, 406, 4 TD, INT. Oh, and 60 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. Yeesh.
Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 26
Vandy won the yardage battle 641-627. Jesus. Most of it was passing, too, as Vandy's Chris Nickson threw for 446 (and a TD with 2 picks) and UK's Andre' Woodson outdid that with 450 and 4 TD. Vandy easily could've won this if not for turnovers; they had 2 fumbles in addition to Nickson's 2 INTs. Vandy could be very good very soon. Eep.
Maryland 14, Miami 13
Teams Maryland has outgained this year: William & Mary. ...yep. Not to say some of those haven't been close, but still, Maryland should be 5-5, not in the ACC title hunt. They're like the David Eckstein of college football. They're like, TAKE THAT, STATISTICS-MAN. WE KNOW HOW TO WIN! Sigh. And no you don't, apparently, as I doubt the strategy of "worse offense and worse defense than our opponents" will go very far.
Minnesota 31, Michigan State 18
Michigan State is inexplicably horrible. Well, it's kind of explicable, it's 95% coaching. Still, jeez.
Rice 41, Tulsa 38
Tulsa gained 568 yards, but 4 turnovers were the killer here. Rice is close to bowl eligibility. Really. Tulsa's still the #2 team in C-USA.
Southern Miss 31, Tulane 3
Tulane was held to only 85 yards. Well done, Golden Eagles. USM deserves to win the C-USA East, and hey, they control their destiny.
Stanford 20, Washington 3
=-o. But both teams suck. Washington's just lost without Isaiah Stanback. Sigh.
...the Steve Breaston show? The Michigan WR was probably offensive POTG, with 3 catches for 103 yards and a score. Mike Hart only had 19 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown, but that's still fine. And better than Troy Smith's worst games. I really don't get why Hart's not in the Heisman discussion, especially over Brady Quinn. Oh, and the Michigan defense had a big day, holding the inconsistent if pretty good Indiana offense to just 165 yards.
#2 Ohio State 54, Northwestern 10
318 yards for Northwestern? At least it was mostly through the air, or else I'd be even more concerned for the Michigan game. But there's obviously good news, as Troy Smith was back to his Heismanesque form, going 12/19 for 185, 4 TDs and a pick. If Smith had put up another bad game, there'd be very little drama for the Michigan game (well, except for all the, you know, drama), but OSU's kept some intrigue going.
Kansas State 45, #3 Texas 42
Texas actually still gained 421 yards, so the game was about statistically even, but one only wonders how they would've done with Colt McCoy. McCoy was actually 4/4 for 51 yards before being knocked down, and even though Jevan Snead threw for 190 and a TD, it was on only 13/30 passing. KSU QB Josh Freeman comprised the whole of the Wildcat offense pretty much, gaining 269 and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. KSU has pretty much erased any images of that close season-opening win against Illinois State, while the McCoy injury puts some intrigue into that game against Texas A&M.
Georgia 37, #4 Auburn 15
Just when Auburn had put all my concerns about inconsistency to rest, Brandon Cox implodes for only 35 yards, a TD and 4 INT on 4/12 passing. The biggest thing to take from this game is Matthew Stafford finally having a good game, going 14/20 for 219 and a score. Georgia has some optimism going into the GT game, while Auburn's back down to what I thought of them a few weeks ago.
#17 Rutgers 28, #5 Louisville 25
Rutgers outplayed Louisville. RUTGERS. Rutgers? RUTGERS. Mike Teel was better than his 8/21 line would suggest, and Ray Rice is back to legit Heisman candidate after running for 131 and 2 scores. Just the way Rutgers came back from such a miserable first half, and how they were able to constantly get to Brohm...God. RUTGERS. They're legit, people.
#6 Florida 17, South Carolina 16
437-412 was the final yardage battle, so it was as close as the score. SC's two TDs surprisingly came on the ground, thanks to Mike Davis and his 94 yards. Both QBs had good days. There's really not much to say from the numbers, but Florida needs to tighten things up on defense. SC is a good team, but they seem starcrossed this year. Almost the anti-Maryland, but we'll get to them.
#7 USC 35, #21 Oregon 10
Oregon won both the turnover battle (3-2) and the yardage battle (407-356), but the latter is somewhat misleading. Both of Oregon's turnovers came in their own half of the field, so USC didn't have to go far to score. Not all that one-sided, as the Ducks were obviously able to get some stuff done against the USC D, but the Trojans seem pretty clearly the class of the conference, especially after the Cal loss. Line of the game: USC RB Chauncey Washington's 15 carries for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns.
#8 West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 24
Yawn. Cincinnati's a decent team, Slaton (148, 2 TD) and White (93, 2 TD) run over everyone. Nothing to see here, move along.
Arizona 24, #9 California 20
Only line of the game that matters is Cal QB Nate Longshore's: 17/36, 250, TD, 3 INT. Those 3 picks don't happen, Cal probably wins the game. Not a huge reason for worry for the Golden Bears; they're still a very good team, but downgraded from BCS contender to, well, that. Arizona could make a bowl!
#10 LSU 28, Alabama 14
Pretty close game, but LSU was the better team easily. John Parker Wilson was essentially the entire Crimson Tide offense throwing for 291 and 2 scores with a pick. JaMarcus Russell had an insane day, however, completing 18 of 21 for 207 and 3 scores. LSU is an insanely good 2-loss team. Bama...meh.
#11 Arkansas 31, #15 Tennessee 14
Tennessee has such bad rush defense that the Arkansas running back threw for a touchdown. Or something like that. So, yeah, Darren McFadden's line: 30 carries, 181 yards, 2 TD, and a 12 yard TD pass to Marcus Monk. A bad matchup for Tennessee, so nothing really's proven beyond the already known "these are two very good SEC teams."
#12 Notre Dame 39, Air Force 17
Same old, same old. Brady Quinn has another big day (14/19, 207, 4 TD) against a subpar defense, and the defense raises a lot of questions. This week's: How does Shaun Carney pass for almost as many yards (205) as Quinn?
#13 Boise State 23, San Jose State 20
SJSU QB Adam Tafralis (17/23, 273, 2 TD) had a good day, while Jared Zabransky (14/20, 181, INT) had one fairly worse. Of course, Zabransky was bailed out by RB Ian Johnson (29 car, 149 yards, TD), but the most important number for Johnson is probably "1 collapsed lung." The Broncos should be fine against Utah State, but that regular season finale at Nevada now looms.
#14 Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 24
Nice rebound game for Paul Thompson, I'd say, as he had 309 and a 2/1 TD/INT on 24/31 passing. No other spectacular stat lines, but the OU defense had a good day, holding TTU to pretty much only their 250 passing yards. Which is pretty good for playing against the Red Raiders. Sooners are back, baby.
#16 Wisconsin 24, Iowa 21
Wisconsin failed to pull a mini-Michigan again and stop the Iowa run, but the Hawkeyes ran decently against the Wolverines, so...nevermind. Drew Tate had a good game (10/31, 170, 3/1 TD/INT), but his game looks worse when compared to Badger backup Tyler Donovan (17/24, 228, 2 TD). Wisconsin's obviously a pretty good team. Iowa, on the other hand, is just decent. No shame in that.
#18 Georgia Tech 7, North Carolina 0
...ugh. GT RB Tashard Choice (32 car, 119 yards, TD) had the only game worth mentioning.
#22 Nebraska 28, #19 Texas A&M 27
About even. Stephen McGee rebounded from a bad day to throw for 244 and run for 58, so good for him. Two pretty good teams, and if they played this game ten times, it'd probably go 5-5. Yep.
#20 Virginia Tech 23, Kent State 0
Three FGs and one of the TDs was by the VT defense. A rare blowout that doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
#23 Wake Forest 30, Florida State 0
Wow. Wake's defense just dominated here, holding FSU to 180 yards and forcing 4 turnovers. Just complete domination. Or complete offensive incompetency by FSU. Either or. I still don't buy Wake as a terribly elite team, but they're sadly as legit as anyone in the ACC, especially after GT and VT's dismal performances this week. They sure as hell beat Maryland.
#24 Boston College 28, Duke 7
Good for them. Not much to say. BC is indeed better than Duke.
#25 Clemson 20, NC State 14
Not exactly confidence-inspiring. Clemson needs QB Will Proctor to play well to return to form, but Proctor only had 146 yards and threw for a 1/2 TD/INT ratio. Thankfully for the Tigers, NCSU's Dan Evans played worse, going for only 95 and 2 picks. Basically, Clemson's playing at the end of the year how they usually do in the beginning.
Akron 31, Buffalo 16
Nice day for Zips QB Luke Getsy: 13/20, 272, 4 TD. Yep.
Arizona State 47, Washington State 14
Well these two teams are reversing fortunes quite quickly, as this was complete ASU domination. Wazzou could only gain 59 rushing yards, and Sun Devils QB Rudy Carpenter had a huge day, going 15/24 for 339 and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. Damned if I know what to make of the Pac 10.
Oklahoma State 66, Baylor 24
Baylor QB Blake Szymanski (could've sworn it had more consonants last week) was a one-man team, but unfortunately got forced into 3 picks. The OK State racked up over 400 yards thanks to a rotating cast of characters. Baylor's lost without injured QB Shawn Bell, OK State could be a contender next year.
BYU 55, Wyoming 7
Completely one-sided. BYU QB John Beck: 20/26, 313, 2 TD. Yep, the Cougars are the second-best mid-major in the country.
Central Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7
Pretty one-sided. CMU's easily the elite team in the MAC. And I'm not sure what to make of that. Oh well, they'll probably lose next week. Stupid MAC.
Utah 35, Colorado State 22
The Utes had 526 yards, proving again that they are frustratingly inconsistent.
Connecticut 46, Pittsburgh 45 (2 OT)
Won on a two-point conversion, this will be the best game this year nobody saw. Including the 1/3 of my fellow UConn fans that left during the third quarter. For shame. DJ Hernandez looked like an actual I-A quarterback, going 20/29 for 164 and 4 TD, and ran for 130. And frosh RB Donald Brown gave even more hope for the Huskies' future, running for 205 and 2 TD. Really, the Huskies winning was astounding, especially in such an offensive shootout, as they failed to contain Pitt QB Tyler Palko (20/25, 234, 3 TD and 1 rushing) and RB LaRod Stephens-Dowling (154, 2 TD). Regarding this year, UConn's staring bowl-eligibility in the face, while Pitt is sliding as badly as anyone in the nation. As for the future, UConn's is now considerably brighter than it was (thanks to having an actual QB), while Pitt? Well, Wannstedt's recruiting gives reasons for optimism, the question is if Wannstedt's coaching will negate it.
Hawaii 61, Louisiana Tech 17
Colt Brennan is once again scary: 27/40, 406, 4 TD, INT. Oh, and 60 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. Yeesh.
Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 26
Vandy won the yardage battle 641-627. Jesus. Most of it was passing, too, as Vandy's Chris Nickson threw for 446 (and a TD with 2 picks) and UK's Andre' Woodson outdid that with 450 and 4 TD. Vandy easily could've won this if not for turnovers; they had 2 fumbles in addition to Nickson's 2 INTs. Vandy could be very good very soon. Eep.
Maryland 14, Miami 13
Teams Maryland has outgained this year: William & Mary. ...yep. Not to say some of those haven't been close, but still, Maryland should be 5-5, not in the ACC title hunt. They're like the David Eckstein of college football. They're like, TAKE THAT, STATISTICS-MAN. WE KNOW HOW TO WIN! Sigh. And no you don't, apparently, as I doubt the strategy of "worse offense and worse defense than our opponents" will go very far.
Minnesota 31, Michigan State 18
Michigan State is inexplicably horrible. Well, it's kind of explicable, it's 95% coaching. Still, jeez.
Rice 41, Tulsa 38
Tulsa gained 568 yards, but 4 turnovers were the killer here. Rice is close to bowl eligibility. Really. Tulsa's still the #2 team in C-USA.
Southern Miss 31, Tulane 3
Tulane was held to only 85 yards. Well done, Golden Eagles. USM deserves to win the C-USA East, and hey, they control their destiny.
Stanford 20, Washington 3
=-o. But both teams suck. Washington's just lost without Isaiah Stanback. Sigh.
Week 12 Rundown: Tuesday and Wednesday
TUESDAY
7:00 PM
Ball State (3-7) @ Toledo (4-6)
Ew. Hanging in there with Michigan aside, Ball State hasn't been very good. Toledo's at least slightly outgained some opponents and is riding kind of a wave of momentum. Kind of. Who knows in the MAC, though.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence (out of 5): 1
WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM
Miami of Ohio (1-9) @ Bowling Green (4-6)
BGSU's inconsistent. Miami of Ohio is pretty consistent, however, they're consistently bad.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
Ball State (3-7) @ Toledo (4-6)
Ew. Hanging in there with Michigan aside, Ball State hasn't been very good. Toledo's at least slightly outgained some opponents and is riding kind of a wave of momentum. Kind of. Who knows in the MAC, though.
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence (out of 5): 1
WEDNESDAY
7:30 PM
Miami of Ohio (1-9) @ Bowling Green (4-6)
BGSU's inconsistent. Miami of Ohio is pretty consistent, however, they're consistently bad.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 1
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Quick Corrections
First, Kent State only lost by 27 to Buffalo, not 31. But still, Buffalo? Anyway. And I forgot about the whole Bryan Pata tragedy when talking about the Maryland-Miami game, so with the 'Canes actually motivated, bump my confidence on them winning to a 3. Maryland sucks, people. Though then again, I said that about Rutgers.
Friday, November 10, 2006
Week 11 Rundown: Saturday
SATURDAY
12:00 PM
Cincinnati (5-4) @ #8 West Virginia (7-1)
...Rutgers? Anyway, I don't even know anymore. But seriously. Cincinnati is a wholly decent team, and going there may be a trap game for the aforementioned Scarlet Knights. That game will likely be more interesting than this, with a Mountaineers team looking to prove themselves at home against a team that will probably allow them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#16 Wisconsin (9-1) @ Iowa (6-4)
Wisconsin looks like a good team, but that weak schedule works against that. Iowa's not as bad as they've been lately, and I'm looking for some regression to the mean, so the upset would not shock me at all. I dig Wisconsin's mini-Michigan thing they've got going on, but I'm gonna pick the rebound.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
#18 Georgia Tech (7-2) @ North Carolina (1-8)
Joe Dailey is...oddly resurgent, even if that requires once being good. And GT keeps winning only 7 games under Chan Gailey. So...maybe. But probably not. UNC's pretty awful, and, well, Calvin Johnson.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-6) @ #25 Clemson (7-3)
NC State looks hapless like, I don't know, a duck without a head. I probably mixed metaphors there or something. Still better than UNC and Duke, though, sadly. Anyway, Clemson. They're worrying me because they're pulling a reverse of what they usually do, tailing off rather than picking up as the season goes on. If they don't win this, I've lost all hope.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Purdue (6-4) @ Illinois (2-8)
Illinois hung in there last week against a high-octane Ohio State offense. Purdue's offense contains significantly less octane, and their defense is horrible, so hey, why not?
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (4-6) @ Michigan State (4-6)
Both these teams are hopeless. For probably one last time, I guess I'll take good talent and horrible coaching over mediocre talent and mediocre coaching.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Syracuse (3-6) @ South Florida (6-3)
USF seems like a different team at home, with their only loss there to Rutgers by 2. Undefeated Rutgers. God. Anyway. Cuse could pull off the upset, but probably not in Tampa.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Georgia (6-4) @ #4 Auburn (9-1)
That Bulldogs offense. Ohhhh that Bulldogs offense. Or lack thereof. Sigh. Auburn can be inconsistent, but with Georgia's defense looking not so great and that offense being, well, offensive, the Tigers should walk.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Baylor (4-6) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
OK State's momentum hit a brick wall against Texas, but well, that'll happen. The new Baylor QB, whose name escapes me but it's long and eastern European, seems to be more mobile than Shawn Bell, but, well, not as good. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Marshall (4-5) @ East Carolina (5-4)
Two teams on 3-game winning streaks, but ECU's been much more impressive with theirs including a win over Southern Miss. Plus the Pirates are at home. Though with C-USA, who knows.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Navy (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-8)
Navy's running game hasn't missed a beat with their new QB, although they'll miss Brian Hampton's passing. But that doesn't matter much for Navy, and probably won't matter against a subpar MAC team.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
Vanderbilt (4-6) @ Kentucky (5-4)
Vanderbilt's competitive. Kentucky's improved from last year, but they're still not that great. Still, with the Georgia wins cancelling out, Kentucky has the best win among the two (Central Michigan, really) and the home-field advantage. Upset, if you consider Vandy winning an upset, could easily happen.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Colorado State (4-5) @ Utah (5-4)
Utah's inconsistent, but CSU looks dead and buried.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
Southern Miss (5-4) @ Tulane (3-6)
Tulane got killed by Marshall, so a once-mediocre team now looks just bad. USM still has that defense. The offense not so much, but that defense. Tulane has an offense where they could put together enough points to put up the upset, but I'm not picking it.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Iowa State (3-7) @ Colorado (1-9)
Colorado's improved, and ISU...sigh. I'd give them a chance if they were playing to save their coach, but he's already given up. Rightfully.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Houston (7-3) @ SMU (5-4)
Houston's inconsistent, but I don't think enough to lose here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Rice (4-5) @ Tulsa (7-2)
Rice actually looks pretty decent. Tulsa's looking to redeem themselves after that Houston loss, though. Uh oh.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (10-0) @ Indiana (5-5)
Indiana's fortunes hinge on QB Kellen Lewis, who might be the most inconsistent player in the nation. Michigan has to be beaten by the opposing QB, and I don't think the good Lewis is showing up with that Michigan defense in his face.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#2 Ohio State (10-0) @ Northwestern (3-7)
I think Northwestern might actually be no Illinois.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
South Carolina (5-4) @ #6 Florida (8-1)
Florida's vulnerable, but against, Vandy's better than you'd think. SC's QB situation is in flux, so the chance for the upset is moderately slim, but bet against Spurrier in Gainesville at your own risk.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
#8 Cal (8-1) @ Arizona (4-5)
Cal's definitely vulnerable, but Arizona didn't look all that impressive despite beating Wazzou. And even though Cal looked bad for allowing UCLA to give up all those yards, who knows if Arizona's as good as them.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3
#22 Nebraska (7-3) @ #19 Texas A&M (8-2)
TAMU's tied into QB Stephen McGee, who looked horrible against Oklahoma. However, that OU defense has finally gotten its act together, so that can be counted as a mulligan. Nebraska looked good and beat Missouri last week, though, so this one's about even. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-4) @ #20 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Yeah no. Kent State looked like a good MAC team, then they lost by 31 to Buffalo, so there.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Connecticut (3-5)
Sigh. Pitt got shut down by the USF defense, and UConn's been good on that side of the ball lately, so they may be able to hold off a Pitt rebound for another week. Of course, it's pretty improbable the UConn offense will be able to score enough points to capitalize. Sigh.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-4) @ Maryland (7-2)
Maryland's the most overrated team in the country. Miami's not awful or anything, and heck, they actually are probably better than the Terps.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Temple (1-9) @ Penn State (6-4)
Yep.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
Stanford (0-9) @ Washington (4-6)
Washington may not have their one-man team, but I think Stanford is the new Temple. Yep.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
#12 Notre Dame (8-1) @ Air Force (4-4)
Man, how does Notre Dame keep winning against this fearsome schedule.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
Troy (4-4) @ Florida Atlantic (3-6)
Geez, the Sun Belt. FAU's surprisingly competitive, but I'll go with the better team.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Utah State (1-8) @ Nevada (6-3)
Utah State's hopeless. Sigh. Nevada's one of the top teams in the WAC, probably behind Boise and right below Hawaii.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (6-3) @ Arkansas State (5-4)
Geez, the Sun Belt. Two top teams in that conference for whatever that's worth, but I'll go with the home team that's seemed more competitive out of conference.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
New Mexico State (2-7) @ Fresno State (1-7)
Is Fresno a I-AA team? No?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
North Texas (2-7) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4)
Well, UNT's pretty much given up. ULL's been unimpressive in conference play, but hey, they beat Houston.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
TCU (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-4)
TCU's rolled over the dregs of the MWC, while UNM's squeaked by. The Lobos are more impressive than expected, but they're probably outclassed here.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
#13 Boise State (9-0) @ San Jose State (6-2)
If SJSU pulls off the upset, then I give up. And God, it's possible.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
6:15 PM
Oregon State (6-3) @ UCLA (4-5)
UCLA seemed to have gotten the offensive kinks worked out against Cal. As for Oregon State, I'm not sure if I buy them just yet, but they've been the more impressive team.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#15 Tennessee (7-2) @ #11 Arkansas (8-1)
Arkansas has beaten up on nothing competition lately, so now they might be exposed. Tennessee was somewhat overrated in the top ten, but they're perfectly capable and new QB Jonathan Crompton is whatever a synonym for capable is. That said, Tennessee's run defense isn't that great, and that'll definitely be a problem here.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-4) @ #14 Oklahoma (7-2)
Tech's always a threat just out of sheer volume of passes, but Oklahoma has its defense together, and I think the TTU defense is just what a struggling quarterback ordered.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Duke (0-9) @ #24 Boston College (7-2)
As much as I don't really like BC, there's no excuse to not win this easy.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4
Louisiana-Monroe (1-7) @ Florida International (0-8)
The worst game of the year.
My Pick: Florida International
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
Alabama (6-4) @ #10 LSU (7-2)
Alabama's offense looked like it existed for a while, but not so much now. So LSU will probably kill them.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#3 Texas (9-1) @ Kansas State (6-4)
I have absolutely no idea how Kansas State has 6 wins.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
#23 Wake Forest (8-1) @ Florida State (5-4)
FSU's actually competitive, they've just had some hard luck in games like the Maryland one. Wake's not as good as their record, but then again, I suppose they are in the ACC. Anyway, I'm looking for some return to the mean for both teams, which means...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
Central Florida (2-7) @ Memphis (1-8)
Memphis is pretty awful. Central Florida is just bad. Which is better than awful.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Washington State (6-4) @ Arizona State (5-4)
Wazzou's a wholly decent team, almost making my top 25 before losing to Arizona in a game that was statistically about even. Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has absolutely imploded. Though I will say, in the Pac 10, like most conferences this year, who the hell knows.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
UNLV (1-8) @ San Diego State (1-7)
I guess I'll take the team that beat the I-A team (and a pretty good Air Force squad at that) but lost to the I-AA over one that's done neither.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
10:15 PM
#21 Oregon (7-2) @ #7 USC (7-1)
Oregon's defense ain't too great, and well, they're not winning at USC.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
11:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (3-6) @ Hawaii (7-2)
Create your own summary! Use a combination of any of the following words and phrases: Passtastic, blowout, no defense, next Temple, 6 touchdowns for Colt Brennan.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
12:00 PM
Cincinnati (5-4) @ #8 West Virginia (7-1)
...Rutgers? Anyway, I don't even know anymore. But seriously. Cincinnati is a wholly decent team, and going there may be a trap game for the aforementioned Scarlet Knights. That game will likely be more interesting than this, with a Mountaineers team looking to prove themselves at home against a team that will probably allow them.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 4
#16 Wisconsin (9-1) @ Iowa (6-4)
Wisconsin looks like a good team, but that weak schedule works against that. Iowa's not as bad as they've been lately, and I'm looking for some regression to the mean, so the upset would not shock me at all. I dig Wisconsin's mini-Michigan thing they've got going on, but I'm gonna pick the rebound.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 1
#18 Georgia Tech (7-2) @ North Carolina (1-8)
Joe Dailey is...oddly resurgent, even if that requires once being good. And GT keeps winning only 7 games under Chan Gailey. So...maybe. But probably not. UNC's pretty awful, and, well, Calvin Johnson.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 3
NC State (3-6) @ #25 Clemson (7-3)
NC State looks hapless like, I don't know, a duck without a head. I probably mixed metaphors there or something. Still better than UNC and Duke, though, sadly. Anyway, Clemson. They're worrying me because they're pulling a reverse of what they usually do, tailing off rather than picking up as the season goes on. If they don't win this, I've lost all hope.
My Pick: Clemson
Confidence: 3
Purdue (6-4) @ Illinois (2-8)
Illinois hung in there last week against a high-octane Ohio State offense. Purdue's offense contains significantly less octane, and their defense is horrible, so hey, why not?
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 1
Minnesota (4-6) @ Michigan State (4-6)
Both these teams are hopeless. For probably one last time, I guess I'll take good talent and horrible coaching over mediocre talent and mediocre coaching.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 1
Syracuse (3-6) @ South Florida (6-3)
USF seems like a different team at home, with their only loss there to Rutgers by 2. Undefeated Rutgers. God. Anyway. Cuse could pull off the upset, but probably not in Tampa.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 3
12:30 PM
Georgia (6-4) @ #4 Auburn (9-1)
That Bulldogs offense. Ohhhh that Bulldogs offense. Or lack thereof. Sigh. Auburn can be inconsistent, but with Georgia's defense looking not so great and that offense being, well, offensive, the Tigers should walk.
My Pick: Auburn
Confidence: 3
Baylor (4-6) @ Oklahoma State (5-4)
OK State's momentum hit a brick wall against Texas, but well, that'll happen. The new Baylor QB, whose name escapes me but it's long and eastern European, seems to be more mobile than Shawn Bell, but, well, not as good. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Confidence: 3
1:00 PM
Marshall (4-5) @ East Carolina (5-4)
Two teams on 3-game winning streaks, but ECU's been much more impressive with theirs including a win over Southern Miss. Plus the Pirates are at home. Though with C-USA, who knows.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 2
Navy (6-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-8)
Navy's running game hasn't missed a beat with their new QB, although they'll miss Brian Hampton's passing. But that doesn't matter much for Navy, and probably won't matter against a subpar MAC team.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 3
Vanderbilt (4-6) @ Kentucky (5-4)
Vanderbilt's competitive. Kentucky's improved from last year, but they're still not that great. Still, with the Georgia wins cancelling out, Kentucky has the best win among the two (Central Michigan, really) and the home-field advantage. Upset, if you consider Vandy winning an upset, could easily happen.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 1
2:00 PM
Colorado State (4-5) @ Utah (5-4)
Utah's inconsistent, but CSU looks dead and buried.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3
Southern Miss (5-4) @ Tulane (3-6)
Tulane got killed by Marshall, so a once-mediocre team now looks just bad. USM still has that defense. The offense not so much, but that defense. Tulane has an offense where they could put together enough points to put up the upset, but I'm not picking it.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 2
3:00 PM
Iowa State (3-7) @ Colorado (1-9)
Colorado's improved, and ISU...sigh. I'd give them a chance if they were playing to save their coach, but he's already given up. Rightfully.
My Pick: Colorado
Confidence: 2
Houston (7-3) @ SMU (5-4)
Houston's inconsistent, but I don't think enough to lose here.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3
Rice (4-5) @ Tulsa (7-2)
Rice actually looks pretty decent. Tulsa's looking to redeem themselves after that Houston loss, though. Uh oh.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3
3:30 PM
#1 Michigan (10-0) @ Indiana (5-5)
Indiana's fortunes hinge on QB Kellen Lewis, who might be the most inconsistent player in the nation. Michigan has to be beaten by the opposing QB, and I don't think the good Lewis is showing up with that Michigan defense in his face.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3
#2 Ohio State (10-0) @ Northwestern (3-7)
I think Northwestern might actually be no Illinois.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 4
South Carolina (5-4) @ #6 Florida (8-1)
Florida's vulnerable, but against, Vandy's better than you'd think. SC's QB situation is in flux, so the chance for the upset is moderately slim, but bet against Spurrier in Gainesville at your own risk.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2
#8 Cal (8-1) @ Arizona (4-5)
Cal's definitely vulnerable, but Arizona didn't look all that impressive despite beating Wazzou. And even though Cal looked bad for allowing UCLA to give up all those yards, who knows if Arizona's as good as them.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3
#22 Nebraska (7-3) @ #19 Texas A&M (8-2)
TAMU's tied into QB Stephen McGee, who looked horrible against Oklahoma. However, that OU defense has finally gotten its act together, so that can be counted as a mulligan. Nebraska looked good and beat Missouri last week, though, so this one's about even. Push goes to the home team!
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1
Kent State (5-4) @ #20 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Yeah no. Kent State looked like a good MAC team, then they lost by 31 to Buffalo, so there.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 5
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Connecticut (3-5)
Sigh. Pitt got shut down by the USF defense, and UConn's been good on that side of the ball lately, so they may be able to hold off a Pitt rebound for another week. Of course, it's pretty improbable the UConn offense will be able to score enough points to capitalize. Sigh.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence: 2
Miami (5-4) @ Maryland (7-2)
Maryland's the most overrated team in the country. Miami's not awful or anything, and heck, they actually are probably better than the Terps.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 2
Temple (1-9) @ Penn State (6-4)
Yep.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 5
Stanford (0-9) @ Washington (4-6)
Washington may not have their one-man team, but I think Stanford is the new Temple. Yep.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 3
4:00 PM
#12 Notre Dame (8-1) @ Air Force (4-4)
Man, how does Notre Dame keep winning against this fearsome schedule.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4
Troy (4-4) @ Florida Atlantic (3-6)
Geez, the Sun Belt. FAU's surprisingly competitive, but I'll go with the better team.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2
Utah State (1-8) @ Nevada (6-3)
Utah State's hopeless. Sigh. Nevada's one of the top teams in the WAC, probably behind Boise and right below Hawaii.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 4
5:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State (6-3) @ Arkansas State (5-4)
Geez, the Sun Belt. Two top teams in that conference for whatever that's worth, but I'll go with the home team that's seemed more competitive out of conference.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1
New Mexico State (2-7) @ Fresno State (1-7)
Is Fresno a I-AA team? No?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 4
North Texas (2-7) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4)
Well, UNT's pretty much given up. ULL's been unimpressive in conference play, but hey, they beat Houston.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 2
5:30 PM
TCU (6-2) @ New Mexico (5-4)
TCU's rolled over the dregs of the MWC, while UNM's squeaked by. The Lobos are more impressive than expected, but they're probably outclassed here.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
#13 Boise State (9-0) @ San Jose State (6-2)
If SJSU pulls off the upset, then I give up. And God, it's possible.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 2
6:15 PM
Oregon State (6-3) @ UCLA (4-5)
UCLA seemed to have gotten the offensive kinks worked out against Cal. As for Oregon State, I'm not sure if I buy them just yet, but they've been the more impressive team.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 1
7:00 PM
#15 Tennessee (7-2) @ #11 Arkansas (8-1)
Arkansas has beaten up on nothing competition lately, so now they might be exposed. Tennessee was somewhat overrated in the top ten, but they're perfectly capable and new QB Jonathan Crompton is whatever a synonym for capable is. That said, Tennessee's run defense isn't that great, and that'll definitely be a problem here.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 1
Texas Tech (6-4) @ #14 Oklahoma (7-2)
Tech's always a threat just out of sheer volume of passes, but Oklahoma has its defense together, and I think the TTU defense is just what a struggling quarterback ordered.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 2
Duke (0-9) @ #24 Boston College (7-2)
As much as I don't really like BC, there's no excuse to not win this easy.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 4
Louisiana-Monroe (1-7) @ Florida International (0-8)
The worst game of the year.
My Pick: Florida International
Confidence: 1
7:45 PM
Alabama (6-4) @ #10 LSU (7-2)
Alabama's offense looked like it existed for a while, but not so much now. So LSU will probably kill them.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 3
8:00 PM
#3 Texas (9-1) @ Kansas State (6-4)
I have absolutely no idea how Kansas State has 6 wins.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 4
#23 Wake Forest (8-1) @ Florida State (5-4)
FSU's actually competitive, they've just had some hard luck in games like the Maryland one. Wake's not as good as their record, but then again, I suppose they are in the ACC. Anyway, I'm looking for some return to the mean for both teams, which means...
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 1
Central Florida (2-7) @ Memphis (1-8)
Memphis is pretty awful. Central Florida is just bad. Which is better than awful.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 2
9:00 PM
Washington State (6-4) @ Arizona State (5-4)
Wazzou's a wholly decent team, almost making my top 25 before losing to Arizona in a game that was statistically about even. Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has absolutely imploded. Though I will say, in the Pac 10, like most conferences this year, who the hell knows.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 2
UNLV (1-8) @ San Diego State (1-7)
I guess I'll take the team that beat the I-A team (and a pretty good Air Force squad at that) but lost to the I-AA over one that's done neither.
My Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 1
10:15 PM
#21 Oregon (7-2) @ #7 USC (7-1)
Oregon's defense ain't too great, and well, they're not winning at USC.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2
11:05 PM
Louisiana Tech (3-6) @ Hawaii (7-2)
Create your own summary! Use a combination of any of the following words and phrases: Passtastic, blowout, no defense, next Temple, 6 touchdowns for Colt Brennan.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 4
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Week 11 Rundown: Thursday and Friday
THURSDAY
6:00 PM
Buffalo (2-7) @ Akron (4-5)
Both teams laid down the boom last week, with Buffalo's win over Kent being bigger scorewise than Akron over BGSU. However, statwise, Akron was the one that was no contest, and I go with the state. Plus, you know, it's Buffalo.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence (out of 5): 3
7:30 PM
#5 Louisville (8-0) @ #17 Rutgers (8-0)
West Virginia is a much better team than Rutgers. That much I know. Plus I still don't really buy that Rutgers defense, since UConn gained some yardage on them but turnovers killed the Huskies. All the evidence really goes in favor of UL, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers won just to completely screw up the Big East.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Wyoming (5-5) @ BYU (7-2)
Wyoming's a thoroughly decent team. However, this game is at BYU, and BYU's been a MWC wrecking ball. So I don't give the Cowboys much of a chance.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
FRIDAY
7:00 PM
Western Michigan (7-2) @ Central Michigan (6-3)
Oh shit! One of the biggest games in the MAC this year, amazingly. WMU's been scraping by lately, plus the game's at CMU, plus CMU's offense is humming. Of course, there are the usual caveats about this being both a rivalry game and a MAC game. Still..
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ UAB (3-6)
Two porous defenses here. UTEP's been slightly more impressive, or slightly less unimpressive depending how you look at it, plus the Miners have more talent, so there ya go.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
6:00 PM
Buffalo (2-7) @ Akron (4-5)
Both teams laid down the boom last week, with Buffalo's win over Kent being bigger scorewise than Akron over BGSU. However, statwise, Akron was the one that was no contest, and I go with the state. Plus, you know, it's Buffalo.
My Pick: Akron
Confidence (out of 5): 3
7:30 PM
#5 Louisville (8-0) @ #17 Rutgers (8-0)
West Virginia is a much better team than Rutgers. That much I know. Plus I still don't really buy that Rutgers defense, since UConn gained some yardage on them but turnovers killed the Huskies. All the evidence really goes in favor of UL, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers won just to completely screw up the Big East.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
Wyoming (5-5) @ BYU (7-2)
Wyoming's a thoroughly decent team. However, this game is at BYU, and BYU's been a MWC wrecking ball. So I don't give the Cowboys much of a chance.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 3
FRIDAY
7:00 PM
Western Michigan (7-2) @ Central Michigan (6-3)
Oh shit! One of the biggest games in the MAC this year, amazingly. WMU's been scraping by lately, plus the game's at CMU, plus CMU's offense is humming. Of course, there are the usual caveats about this being both a rivalry game and a MAC game. Still..
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 1
8:00 PM
UTEP (4-5) @ UAB (3-6)
Two porous defenses here. UTEP's been slightly more impressive, or slightly less unimpressive depending how you look at it, plus the Miners have more talent, so there ya go.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Feely Top 25: After Week 10
#1 Michigan (#1 LW)
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Texas (#4)
#4 Auburn (#6)
#5 Louisville (#12)
#6 Florida (#5)
#7 USC (#7)
#8 West Virginia (#3)
#9 Cal (#8)
#10 LSU (#9)
#11 Arkansas (#13)
#12 Notre Dame (#11)
#13 Boise State (#14)
#14 Oklahoma (#16)
#15 Tennessee (#10)
#16 Wisconsin (#18)
#17 Rutgers (#19)
#18 Georgia Tech (#22)
#19 Texas A&M (#17)
#20 Virginia Tech (#21)
#21 Oregon (#23)
#22 Nebraska (--)
#23 Wake Forest (--)
#24 Boston College (#20)
#25 Clemson (#15)
NOTES!
Yep, Michigan still > Ohio State, although those 2 are obviously a lot closer to 3 now.
Florida's probably still winning the SEC now that they've clinched the East, but that game against Vandy was just brutal. Auburn's been pretty consistent as of late, so they're up there temporarily until I change my mind. Assuming I remember to.
Louisville will at least be #4 if they beat Rutgers decisively. I'm still tenative (although, Rutgers? Really?), but as long as they're set up to be in the title game, that's how high I'll have 'em.
That being said, WVU should've won that one. Cal's defense had a shit day, and LSU still has 2 losses, so I'm keeping them below the Mountaineers for now.
As for Notre Dame slipping, again, check out that Joe Dailey statline.
Oklahoma's defense and running game are fine, so they're movin' back up.
God, the ACC.
23-25 was a tough one. Wake has the best record, and BC beat Clemson. However, based on talent, it probably goes Clemson > BC > Wake.
Just missed: BYU and Oregon State. And Maryland, I guess.
#2 Ohio State (#2)
#3 Texas (#4)
#4 Auburn (#6)
#5 Louisville (#12)
#6 Florida (#5)
#7 USC (#7)
#8 West Virginia (#3)
#9 Cal (#8)
#10 LSU (#9)
#11 Arkansas (#13)
#12 Notre Dame (#11)
#13 Boise State (#14)
#14 Oklahoma (#16)
#15 Tennessee (#10)
#16 Wisconsin (#18)
#17 Rutgers (#19)
#18 Georgia Tech (#22)
#19 Texas A&M (#17)
#20 Virginia Tech (#21)
#21 Oregon (#23)
#22 Nebraska (--)
#23 Wake Forest (--)
#24 Boston College (#20)
#25 Clemson (#15)
NOTES!
Yep, Michigan still > Ohio State, although those 2 are obviously a lot closer to 3 now.
Florida's probably still winning the SEC now that they've clinched the East, but that game against Vandy was just brutal. Auburn's been pretty consistent as of late, so they're up there temporarily until I change my mind. Assuming I remember to.
Louisville will at least be #4 if they beat Rutgers decisively. I'm still tenative (although, Rutgers? Really?), but as long as they're set up to be in the title game, that's how high I'll have 'em.
That being said, WVU should've won that one. Cal's defense had a shit day, and LSU still has 2 losses, so I'm keeping them below the Mountaineers for now.
As for Notre Dame slipping, again, check out that Joe Dailey statline.
Oklahoma's defense and running game are fine, so they're movin' back up.
God, the ACC.
23-25 was a tough one. Wake has the best record, and BC beat Clemson. However, based on talent, it probably goes Clemson > BC > Wake.
Just missed: BYU and Oregon State. And Maryland, I guess.
Week 10 Recap
#1 Michigan 34, Ball State 26
Michigan actually pretty much executed their gameplan: run the ball and stop the other team from doing so. Mike Hart ran for 154 and a TD, and Brandon Minor added 108 and a score on the ground. On the flipside, the Michigan D held Ball State to 84 rushing yards. Now the bad news: Chad Henne looked average, going 17/25 passing, but for only 155 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT. And BSU QB Nate Davis put up 250 yards through the air, so it cements that Michigan is beatable if a QB is good enough. The question is if Troy Smith is good enough anymore, at least after...
#2 Ohio State 17, Illinois 10
Not a situation where you have to look beyond the score -- this was just a shit offensive performance by the Buckeyes. Antonio Pittman only had 58 and a score on the ground, while Troy Smith had his worst game of the year, only going 13/23 for 108 and a pick. The OSU offense suddenly looks a lot more stoppable. Uh oh.
#12 Louisville 44, #3 West Virginia 34
Turnovers were the order of the day here, as the Mountaineers outgained UL 575-491, but fumbled it over 3 times. Plus two of Louisville's TDs were on special teams and defense. Normally, I'd say that this shows Louisville would get killed against the OSU/Michigan winner, but both of those teams also looked vulnerable. So basically, Rutgers will beat Louisville, West Virginia will beat Rutgers, and then who the hell knows.
#4 Texas 36, Oklahoma State 10
Oof. OSU was on a hot streak, but obviously got shot down to earth here. The Texas defense also regressed (well, progressed) to their mean, holding the Cowboys to only 219 yards. So, Texas reminds everyone of their conference dominance, while OK State, hey, you gave it a go. You've done better than expected this year!
#5 Florida 25, Vanderbilt 19
Ack. The good for Chris Leak: 18/25, 237 yards, 2 rushing TD. The bad: 1 passing TD, 3 INT. Vandy QB Chris Nickson, meanwhile, had a statline more expected of Chris Leak: 27/44, 298, 2/1 TD/INT. And he's only a redshirt freshmen, people. A performance like this has me quite down on Florida for the moment, but then again, Vanderbilt's a lot better than expected, and may finally make a bowl next year.
#7 USC 42, Stanford 0
An efficient destruction. Stanford is so awful.
#8 Cal 38, UCLA 24
UCLA...probably should've won this one. QB Patrick Cowan threw for 329, but in the killer, had 0 TDs and 2 picks. RB Chris Markey had a huge day too, with 136 and a score on the ground. On the Cal side, Marshawn Lynch ran for 81 and a TD, but QB Nate Longshore was a one-man team, going 20/24 for 266 and 3 TD. A performance like that for Longshore gives some optimism, but with a defensive performance that bad, they're definitely vulnerable.
#9 LSU 28, #10 Tennessee 24
And only that close because of JaMarcus Russell's 3 picks. Say what you will about the running back by committee, but it was good for 259 yards, 6 short of Tennessee's 265 total. Put that on top of Russell's 247 yards and 3 TD through the air, and you have a good old-fashioned whoopin'.
#11 Notre Dame 45, North Carolina 26
Brady Quinn had a great day, but here's the biggest indictment of Notre Dame's defense I can possibly give:
Joe Dailey: 14/22, 213 yards, 3 TD
#13 Arkansas 26, South Carolina 20
That Gamecocks QB situation is in flux, and for a Spurrier team, uh oh. On the Arkansas side, holy crap. Mitch Mustain threw one pass for one pick, then Casey Dick came in and threw for a respectable 228, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Darren McFadden though, holy f. 219 yards and 2 TD. As much as I'm tempted to say "Good thing the Razorbacks didn't come down from those big wins against Southeastern Missouri State and Ole Miss", but this was a legit good performance by Arkansas.
#14 Boise State 45, Fresno State 21
FRESNO STATE FINALLY GOT AN INTERCEPTION! I could try and dissect this, but basically, Fresno is quite shit.
Maryland 13, #15 Clemson 12
So...uh...what? How? The stats show that Maryland got outplayed everywhere but, you know, the score. Which is the story of their year, actually. With Miami, BC, and Wake to finish the year though, hopefully the Terps will be put in their rightful place.
#16 Oklahoma 17, #17 Texas A&M 16
TAMU's fortunes are tied into QB Stephen McGee, and his line? 8/18, 63, INT. Of course, OU's Paul Thompson may have been worse: 3/12 for 39, but with a rushing TD. Oklahoma looks to be fine, with the defense playing well and RB Allen Patrick (173, TD) filling in amicably for Adrian Peterson. A better QB would be nice, but if they can beat A&M, they should have no problem from here on out.
#18 Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
Wow, the Badgers held PSU to only 79 rushing yards. And won mostly on RB Pat Hill's 148 yards on the ground. I said it before and I'll say it again: mini-Michigan, even if this is probably the biggest win UW has had. Oh and Anthony Morelli sucks.
Wake Forest 21, #20 Boston College 14
Ironically, BC probably should've won this one, outgainined Wake 468-296. Matt Ryan was pretty much the entire BC offense, throwing for 402 and a 1/2 TD/INT ratio, although Wake QB Riley Skinner's was the same. God, I give up on the ACC.
#21 Virginia Tech 17, Miami 10
Abysmal offensive performance by both teams (although VT RB Branden Ore had 2 TDs on only 79 yards), and that's really all worth mentioning.
#22 Georgia Tech 31, NC State 23
NCSU had no offensive touchdowns, and most of their offense was 270 Dan Evans passing yards that went nowhere. Also, it's amazing what throwing it to Calvin Johnson can do, as he had 168 yards and caught 2 of Reggie Ball's 4 TDs. GT's probably the de facto ACC favorite until they lose at UNC or something dumb, while NC State seems to be back in the depths they were before the QB change.
#23 Oregon 34, Washington 14
Washington only gained 176 yards, but after some of Oregon's recent performances, I think that speaks more about what dire straits the U-Dub offense is in without Isaiah Stanback.
Nebraska 34, #24 Missouri 20
Pretty much even except for Nebraska's 40-yard rushing edge. And the Tigers sucked on third down. Still two above-average teams, Nebraska's just now the one with Big 12 North supremacy.
#25 BYU 24, Colorado State 3
One-sided. BYU's still the clear class of MWC, though that season-ending game at Utah looms.
Air Force 43, Army 7
Oof. Not this one-sided, but Army turnovers and AFA defensive touchdowns kept this from being a game.
Akron 35, Bowling Green 28
Wow, the Zips just opened up one, racking up 470 yards and winning despite 3 turnovers. BGSU QB Anthony Turner was a one-man team, passing for 192 with a score and rushing for 105 and 3 TD, but, well, that one-man team couldn't beat Temple.
Mississippi State 24, Alabama 16
=-o. A shockingly even game, by which I mean both offenses kind of suck. But good for the Bulldogs.
Arizona 27, Washington State 17
I would say that Arizona throwing for a 78 yard TD the third play of the game was a major factor in such a statistically even game, but Wazzou answered with a 91-yard score a few drives later. Wazzou probably should've won this one statistically, but Arizona held the edge in the rushing game, and RB Chris Henry's 2 TDs made the difference.
Oregon State 44, Arizona State 10
The implosion of Rudy Carpenter continues, as this week's ASU QB line: 9/27, 124, 2 INT. Somewhere, scratch that, in Lincoln, Nebraska, Sam Keller laughs.
Texas Tech 55, Baylor 21
New Baylor QB Blake Szymanski had a decent showing, throwing for 190 and a 1/1 TD/INT, while rushing for 2 scores. However, the Baylor D got whatever the football equivalent of being punched in the uterus is. Texas Tech running back, yes, Texas Tech has running backs, Shannon Woods ran for 125 and 3 TD on only 10 carries. And of course, QB Graham Harrell: 35/52, 483, 4 TD, INT.
Buffalo 41, Kent State 14
!!!
...
???
Central Michigan 42, Temple 26
Just need to type it out to make sure that Temple isn't on a winning streak, because then the world would end.
Kentucky 24, Georgia 20
Oh God that Georgia offense just makes me actually feel pain. QB Matthew Stafford was pretty much the Bulldogs' offense, and when he throws 3 picks, well.
Hawaii 63, Utah State 10
Colt Brennan threw for 6 TDs, so I figured that was worth a mention. Although he's probably done it at least once before this year that I've missed.
Houston 27, Tulsa 10
Oof, absolutely one-sided. And Tulsa's a pretty damn good team. Houston's loss to USM is understandable, but Louisiana-Lafayette? The hell? It's not this year's TCU-SMU, but it's close.
Minnesota 63, Indiana 26
Both teams put up 500+ yards, so it's not like the Hoosiers were completely dominated. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis may be this year's most frustratingly inconsistent player, throwing for 321 and 3 TDs, but also handing over 2 interceptions. Though really, to be 6-6 would be cake for a team that figured to have another of many rebuilding years. Minnesota still kind of sucks.
Northwestern 21, Iowa 7
Kirk Ferentz was an all-Yankee Conference LB for UConn in the 70s. C'mon, Kirk. You know you wanna come back home.
Kansas 41, Iowa State 10
I have no analysis, I just felt like pointing out that Iowa State really really sucks. The hell?
South Florida 22, Pittsburgh 12
THE TYLER PALKO BLUES IMPLOSION! There's a band named the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, you see. That was a funny reference. Anyway, decide which line is worse: Pitt QB Tyler Palko's 11/23, 159, 1/3 TD/INT ratio, or RB LaRod Stephens-Howling having only 29 yards. I blame the Wannstache based on pretty much nothing.
Michigan actually pretty much executed their gameplan: run the ball and stop the other team from doing so. Mike Hart ran for 154 and a TD, and Brandon Minor added 108 and a score on the ground. On the flipside, the Michigan D held Ball State to 84 rushing yards. Now the bad news: Chad Henne looked average, going 17/25 passing, but for only 155 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT. And BSU QB Nate Davis put up 250 yards through the air, so it cements that Michigan is beatable if a QB is good enough. The question is if Troy Smith is good enough anymore, at least after...
#2 Ohio State 17, Illinois 10
Not a situation where you have to look beyond the score -- this was just a shit offensive performance by the Buckeyes. Antonio Pittman only had 58 and a score on the ground, while Troy Smith had his worst game of the year, only going 13/23 for 108 and a pick. The OSU offense suddenly looks a lot more stoppable. Uh oh.
#12 Louisville 44, #3 West Virginia 34
Turnovers were the order of the day here, as the Mountaineers outgained UL 575-491, but fumbled it over 3 times. Plus two of Louisville's TDs were on special teams and defense. Normally, I'd say that this shows Louisville would get killed against the OSU/Michigan winner, but both of those teams also looked vulnerable. So basically, Rutgers will beat Louisville, West Virginia will beat Rutgers, and then who the hell knows.
#4 Texas 36, Oklahoma State 10
Oof. OSU was on a hot streak, but obviously got shot down to earth here. The Texas defense also regressed (well, progressed) to their mean, holding the Cowboys to only 219 yards. So, Texas reminds everyone of their conference dominance, while OK State, hey, you gave it a go. You've done better than expected this year!
#5 Florida 25, Vanderbilt 19
Ack. The good for Chris Leak: 18/25, 237 yards, 2 rushing TD. The bad: 1 passing TD, 3 INT. Vandy QB Chris Nickson, meanwhile, had a statline more expected of Chris Leak: 27/44, 298, 2/1 TD/INT. And he's only a redshirt freshmen, people. A performance like this has me quite down on Florida for the moment, but then again, Vanderbilt's a lot better than expected, and may finally make a bowl next year.
#7 USC 42, Stanford 0
An efficient destruction. Stanford is so awful.
#8 Cal 38, UCLA 24
UCLA...probably should've won this one. QB Patrick Cowan threw for 329, but in the killer, had 0 TDs and 2 picks. RB Chris Markey had a huge day too, with 136 and a score on the ground. On the Cal side, Marshawn Lynch ran for 81 and a TD, but QB Nate Longshore was a one-man team, going 20/24 for 266 and 3 TD. A performance like that for Longshore gives some optimism, but with a defensive performance that bad, they're definitely vulnerable.
#9 LSU 28, #10 Tennessee 24
And only that close because of JaMarcus Russell's 3 picks. Say what you will about the running back by committee, but it was good for 259 yards, 6 short of Tennessee's 265 total. Put that on top of Russell's 247 yards and 3 TD through the air, and you have a good old-fashioned whoopin'.
#11 Notre Dame 45, North Carolina 26
Brady Quinn had a great day, but here's the biggest indictment of Notre Dame's defense I can possibly give:
Joe Dailey: 14/22, 213 yards, 3 TD
#13 Arkansas 26, South Carolina 20
That Gamecocks QB situation is in flux, and for a Spurrier team, uh oh. On the Arkansas side, holy crap. Mitch Mustain threw one pass for one pick, then Casey Dick came in and threw for a respectable 228, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Darren McFadden though, holy f. 219 yards and 2 TD. As much as I'm tempted to say "Good thing the Razorbacks didn't come down from those big wins against Southeastern Missouri State and Ole Miss", but this was a legit good performance by Arkansas.
#14 Boise State 45, Fresno State 21
FRESNO STATE FINALLY GOT AN INTERCEPTION! I could try and dissect this, but basically, Fresno is quite shit.
Maryland 13, #15 Clemson 12
So...uh...what? How? The stats show that Maryland got outplayed everywhere but, you know, the score. Which is the story of their year, actually. With Miami, BC, and Wake to finish the year though, hopefully the Terps will be put in their rightful place.
#16 Oklahoma 17, #17 Texas A&M 16
TAMU's fortunes are tied into QB Stephen McGee, and his line? 8/18, 63, INT. Of course, OU's Paul Thompson may have been worse: 3/12 for 39, but with a rushing TD. Oklahoma looks to be fine, with the defense playing well and RB Allen Patrick (173, TD) filling in amicably for Adrian Peterson. A better QB would be nice, but if they can beat A&M, they should have no problem from here on out.
#18 Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
Wow, the Badgers held PSU to only 79 rushing yards. And won mostly on RB Pat Hill's 148 yards on the ground. I said it before and I'll say it again: mini-Michigan, even if this is probably the biggest win UW has had. Oh and Anthony Morelli sucks.
Wake Forest 21, #20 Boston College 14
Ironically, BC probably should've won this one, outgainined Wake 468-296. Matt Ryan was pretty much the entire BC offense, throwing for 402 and a 1/2 TD/INT ratio, although Wake QB Riley Skinner's was the same. God, I give up on the ACC.
#21 Virginia Tech 17, Miami 10
Abysmal offensive performance by both teams (although VT RB Branden Ore had 2 TDs on only 79 yards), and that's really all worth mentioning.
#22 Georgia Tech 31, NC State 23
NCSU had no offensive touchdowns, and most of their offense was 270 Dan Evans passing yards that went nowhere. Also, it's amazing what throwing it to Calvin Johnson can do, as he had 168 yards and caught 2 of Reggie Ball's 4 TDs. GT's probably the de facto ACC favorite until they lose at UNC or something dumb, while NC State seems to be back in the depths they were before the QB change.
#23 Oregon 34, Washington 14
Washington only gained 176 yards, but after some of Oregon's recent performances, I think that speaks more about what dire straits the U-Dub offense is in without Isaiah Stanback.
Nebraska 34, #24 Missouri 20
Pretty much even except for Nebraska's 40-yard rushing edge. And the Tigers sucked on third down. Still two above-average teams, Nebraska's just now the one with Big 12 North supremacy.
#25 BYU 24, Colorado State 3
One-sided. BYU's still the clear class of MWC, though that season-ending game at Utah looms.
Air Force 43, Army 7
Oof. Not this one-sided, but Army turnovers and AFA defensive touchdowns kept this from being a game.
Akron 35, Bowling Green 28
Wow, the Zips just opened up one, racking up 470 yards and winning despite 3 turnovers. BGSU QB Anthony Turner was a one-man team, passing for 192 with a score and rushing for 105 and 3 TD, but, well, that one-man team couldn't beat Temple.
Mississippi State 24, Alabama 16
=-o. A shockingly even game, by which I mean both offenses kind of suck. But good for the Bulldogs.
Arizona 27, Washington State 17
I would say that Arizona throwing for a 78 yard TD the third play of the game was a major factor in such a statistically even game, but Wazzou answered with a 91-yard score a few drives later. Wazzou probably should've won this one statistically, but Arizona held the edge in the rushing game, and RB Chris Henry's 2 TDs made the difference.
Oregon State 44, Arizona State 10
The implosion of Rudy Carpenter continues, as this week's ASU QB line: 9/27, 124, 2 INT. Somewhere, scratch that, in Lincoln, Nebraska, Sam Keller laughs.
Texas Tech 55, Baylor 21
New Baylor QB Blake Szymanski had a decent showing, throwing for 190 and a 1/1 TD/INT, while rushing for 2 scores. However, the Baylor D got whatever the football equivalent of being punched in the uterus is. Texas Tech running back, yes, Texas Tech has running backs, Shannon Woods ran for 125 and 3 TD on only 10 carries. And of course, QB Graham Harrell: 35/52, 483, 4 TD, INT.
Buffalo 41, Kent State 14
!!!
...
???
Central Michigan 42, Temple 26
Just need to type it out to make sure that Temple isn't on a winning streak, because then the world would end.
Kentucky 24, Georgia 20
Oh God that Georgia offense just makes me actually feel pain. QB Matthew Stafford was pretty much the Bulldogs' offense, and when he throws 3 picks, well.
Hawaii 63, Utah State 10
Colt Brennan threw for 6 TDs, so I figured that was worth a mention. Although he's probably done it at least once before this year that I've missed.
Houston 27, Tulsa 10
Oof, absolutely one-sided. And Tulsa's a pretty damn good team. Houston's loss to USM is understandable, but Louisiana-Lafayette? The hell? It's not this year's TCU-SMU, but it's close.
Minnesota 63, Indiana 26
Both teams put up 500+ yards, so it's not like the Hoosiers were completely dominated. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis may be this year's most frustratingly inconsistent player, throwing for 321 and 3 TDs, but also handing over 2 interceptions. Though really, to be 6-6 would be cake for a team that figured to have another of many rebuilding years. Minnesota still kind of sucks.
Northwestern 21, Iowa 7
Kirk Ferentz was an all-Yankee Conference LB for UConn in the 70s. C'mon, Kirk. You know you wanna come back home.
Kansas 41, Iowa State 10
I have no analysis, I just felt like pointing out that Iowa State really really sucks. The hell?
South Florida 22, Pittsburgh 12
THE TYLER PALKO BLUES IMPLOSION! There's a band named the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, you see. That was a funny reference. Anyway, decide which line is worse: Pitt QB Tyler Palko's 11/23, 159, 1/3 TD/INT ratio, or RB LaRod Stephens-Howling having only 29 yards. I blame the Wannstache based on pretty much nothing.
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