Saturday, November 18, 2006

Week 12 Rundown: Saturday

12:00 PM

Western Carolina @ #3 Florida (9-1)
Gee, I wonder.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence (out of 5): 5

Buffalo (2-8) @ #15 Wisconsin (10-1)
GEE. I WONDER.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 5

Maryland (8-2) @ #23 Boston College (8-2)
BC's somewhat overrated, but I still imagine Maryland's luck has to run out sometime. I'll be wary, but I absolutely cannot pick the Terps unless they're playing, say, Duke.
My Pick: Boston College
Confidence: 2

Connecticut (4-5) @ Syracuse (3-7)
This worries me. Unless they upset Louisville, UConn needs to win this and against Cincy at home next week to be bowl-eligible. Fun fact: UConn has never lost a home game in November since going I-A, so the Cincinnati game doesn't worry me. If the UConn I saw against Pitt shows up here, it's no contest. But can they do it on the road? If the typical UConn team of this year shows up, it's about a pick 'em. I probably would pick them anyway, but the Huskies' performance last week only cements it.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 1

Indiana (5-6) @ Purdue (7-4)
Who knows with Indiana. Purdue is one of the many all-offense, no-defense teams that seem in vogue. Or is that en vogue? Whatever. I'll bet against the "good Indiana" showing up away from home, but if the Hoosiers do, they could easily blow Purdue out.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 1

Iowa (6-5) @ Minnesota (5-6)
I think I've officially given up on that Iowa breakthrough game where they look like the superbadass team that I've always felt they could show up as at any moment. I'm still picking them to win, since Minnesota is terribly mediocre (if even that), but it probably won't be as lopsided as it should.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 2

Miami (5-5) @ Virginia (4-6)
Virginia has 4 wins? How the hell did that happen? Let me guess...I remember the Wyoming game, Duke and UNC probably, and I'll say a I-AA. Now to look it up...oh, NC State. Well, good for them. Miami actually hasn't been all that awful lately, with their losses mostly coming due to bad luck rather than a lack of effort. If they lose here, then they're just cursed. Or Wright or James got injured.
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 3

Michigan State (4-7) @ Penn State (7-4)
Don't worry Spartans, it'll be over soon.
My Pick: Penn State
Confidence: 3

NC State (3-7) @ North Carolina (1-9)
You know what? I'm picking the upset. NCSU's dead in the water, as the aforementioned loss to Virginia shows, and...okay, I can say this. Deep breaths, deep breaths. Okay. Here I go. AND....Joe Dailey has been pretty decent lately (ignore the GT game). Okay, I'm going to stop before I blow my own mind anymore.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 1


12:10 PM

#11 Oklahoma (8-2) @ Baylor (4-7)
Baylor wouldn't have a chance with Shawn Bell. Without, sigh. Poor Baylor.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 4


12:30 PM

#16 Tennessee (7-3) @ Vanderbilt (4-7)
If Vanderbilt could beat Tennessee last year in Knoxville, I definitely think this year's Commodores have a puncher's chance. Tennessee's weakness is the run defense, and Vandy is actually a decent running team, but, well, there's a difference between Vandy and Arkansas.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 2

Middle Tennessee State (7-3) @ South Carolina (5-5)
MTSU's the class of the Sun Belt, not that that 6-0 conference record doesn't make that immediately apparent. Louisiana-Lafayette had that fluke win over Houston, so it's not like a SBC team can't pull off an upset, but I really doubt it'll be here. SC's a pretty good team, they've just had some bad luck here and there. And this is a game where they can afford it.
My Pick: South Carolina
Confidence: 3

Temple (1-10) @ Navy (7-3)
Ah, hell, let's just name Temple the new Temple.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4


1:00 PM

Illinois (2-9) @ Northwestern (3-8)
Intriguing. Illinois hung close with Ohio State, but NW actually put up a lot more yards in getting blown out. I'll go with the Wildcats since they have the propensity to put up more yards, and I'm not sure the Illini can keep up.
My Pick: Northwestern
Confidence: 1

Louisiana-Monroe (2-7) @ Kentucky (6-4)
Seven wins? Really?
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 3


1:30 PM

Duke (0-10) @ #19 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Duke, sadly, is no UNC. As much as I hate the basketball team, I kind of have some pity for football. And it will continue here.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
Confidence: 4


2:00 PM

Central Florida (3-7) @ Tulane (3-7)
Southern Miss held Tulane to 85 total yards last week. At Tulane. The USM defense is good, but not THAT good. UCF is no peach, but I have more confidence in them than the Green Wave.
My Pick: Central Florida
Confidence: 1

Western Michigan (7-3) @ Florida State (5-5)
Now that Jeff Bowden's gone, watch FSU put up forty-plus. And I'm not sure if I'm kidding. They really should win this game. If they don't, then...well, I wouldn't be surprised. God, I wouldn't be surprised.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 2

Houston (8-3) @ Memphis (1-9)
Well, Houston DID lose to Louisiana-Lafayette. That's about the only hope for the Tigers here. If they're even as good as Louisiana-Lafayette.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 4

Missouri (7-3) @ Iowa State (3-8)
I can't imagine ISU is this bad, so I can see some regression (well, progression) to the mean and the resulting upset. Probably not gonna happen, though.
My Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 2

Oklahoma State (6-4) @ Texas Tech (6-5)
Oh God, this is gonna be a shootout. Honestly, this is about even, and I can't really give much analysis past "HOLY FUCK! PASSING YARDS!" Push goes to the home team.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 1


2:30 PM

#8 Arkansas (9-1) @ Mississippi State (3-7)
Arkansas is definitely capable of being upset. Doubt this is the team to do it, although to the Bulldogs' credit, they have improved from the "FUCKING HORRIBLE" they were earlier in the year.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 3

Army (3-7) @ #13 Notre Dame (9-1)
Man, how does Notre Dame do it against this SUPER-HARD INDEPENDENT SCHEDULE? The Irish are going to win, but I think it's a damning statement that I would barely bat an eye if whoever the Army QB is (is it still David Pevoto?) threw for over 300.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Confidence: 4


3:00 PM

Utah State (1-9) @ #13 Boise State (10-0)
Ian Johnson will probably be out with a collapsed lung. Hell, take out the lung and put it at running back, the Broncos would probably win.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4

East Carolina (6-4) @ Rice (5-5)
Rice's win over Tulsa was luck, but the Owls are actually a decent team, and definitely one capable of beating ECU. Still, the Pirates offense is humming, and I have more confidence in them just because, you know, Rice? Really? The Owls winning wouldn't shock me at all, though, especially in the parity-tacular C-USA.
My Pick: East Carolina
Confidence: 1

Tulsa (7-3) @ SMU (5-5)
Tulsa's the much better team, and the Golden Hurricane will probably be focused after that Rice loss. Eep.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 4


3:30 PM

#1 Michigan (11-0) @ #2 Ohio State (11-0)
This one's getting its own post.

#10 Auburn (9-2) @ Alabama (6-5)
Auburn is again an inconsistent team in my eyes. Hm...Auburn playing a highly-motivated team with a strong defense, but a suspect offense that has looked good at times earlier in the year? HMMM. Now where did I see that before...
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 1

Arizona (5-5) @ Oregon (7-3)
Arizona's Cal win was purely because of mistakes by the Golden Bears, and their game against Wazzou was about even. Does Arizona have a chance? Yes. But is Oregon the better team? Yes.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 2

Kansas State (7-4) @ Kansas (5-5)
I'm shocked that Kansas is .500, I could've sworn they were worse. Still, bleah. KSU, oddly enough to me after that Illinois State near-loss to start the year, seems like an above-average team. KU definitely has a chance at home, but I don't really have that much confidence in the Jayhawks.
My Pick: Kansas State
Confidence: 2

Oregon State (6-4) @ Stanford (1-9)
Five words: Stanford is still really bad.
My Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 3


4:00 PM

New Mexico (5-5) @ #24 BYU (8-2)
UNM, like KSU, has gone from embarrassing themselves against a I-AA to being a pretty decent little team. The Lobos will probably get killed here, though.
My Pick: BYU
Confidence: 4

San Diego State (2-7) @ TCU (7-2)
Last week's win over UNLV showed that SDSU still has a pulse. TCU could put an end to that here, though.
My Pick: TCU
Confidence: 3

Wyoming (5-6) @ UNLV (1-9)
I have a feeling in my bones that says "upset", but I think Wyoming will be motivated, staring bowl eligibility in the face against an underperforming team.
My Pick: Wyoming
Confidence: 1


4:30 PM

UTEP (5-5) @ Marshall (4-6)
Marshall, bleh. They've gone from "pretty bad" to "kind of okay, I guess" over the year. UTEP's quite underperformed this year; that could change here. Unless Marshall gets really motivated because of their movie. Whenever that's out. Is it out soon? Who knows. Or really cares all that much. Except Marshall fans.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2


5:00 PM

Idaho (4-6) @ Fresno State (2-7)
They've gotta. Right?
My Pick: Fresno State
Confidence: 2


6:00 PM

Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) @ Florida International (0-9)
Their coach just quit, so FIU is dead in the water. Not really much to say here. Smell the exciting Sun Belt action.
My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Confidence: 3


6:45 PM

Washington (4-7) @ Washington State (6-5)
UW will be motivated and all, but that loss to Stanford pretty much shows what happens when a one-man team loses that one man.
My Pick: Washington State
Confidence: 3


7:00 PM

#21 Virginia Tech (8-2) @ #18 Wake Forest (9-1)
Virginia Tech is a talented team and can obviously win, but Wake Forest is the best team in the ACC. Oh crap, why's I say that. Dammit, now my brain is bleeding.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Confidence: 1

Arkansas State (5-5) @ Troy (5-4)
Troy's undefeated in the Sun Belt, but they haven't faced MTSU (the other SBC undefeated), or Arkansas State, who I feel is their next-best Sun Belt competitor. ASU has a pretty good running attack, and I have a pretty good hunch.
My Pick: Arkansas State
Confidence: 1

Florida Atlantic (3-7) @ North Texas (3-7)
I'll go with the team not playing for a lame duck coach.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Confidence: 1


7:30 PM

South Florida (7-3) @ #12 Louisville (8-1)
Kind of weird that this is between the #3 and #4 teams in the Big East. USF would have a chance at home, as last year showed, but between Louisville wanting revenge for that game, revenge for the Rutgers game, and just being a better team, watch out now.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3

Utah (6-4) @ Air Force (4-5)
Two obnoxiously inconsistent teams. I'd give Utah the talent advantage, plus the Utes are on a bit of a roll.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2


7:45 PM

#9 Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincinnati (5-5)
This could be a trap game, as Cincinnati is a thoroughly decent team. Perhaps Cincinnati can pull off the upset by lulling Rutgers to sleep since the Bearcats are so boring and there is nothing to say about them.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 2


8:00 PM

#17 Cal (8-2) @ #4 USC (8-1)
USC's the better team. Cal's loss to Arizona may have helped the Golden Bears here, though; they'll be focused, and they actually played much better than the Wildcats, with Nate Longshore's 3 picks being what cost them the game. Still, at USC? Meh.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 2

Mississippi (3-7) @ #7 LSU (8-2)
This could be quite the fun whooping.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4

Nevada (7-3) @ Louisiana Tech (3-7)
Kind of a boring game to talk about. Nevada's a very good WAC team. Louisiana Tech, very much not so.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 3

UAB (3-7) @ Southern Miss (6-4)
The average USM team this year would beat UAB, especially at home. The fact that they just finished shutting Tulane the heck down makes this pick that much easier.
My Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 3


10:15 PM

UCLA (5-5) @ Arizona State (6-4)
What a kind of uninteresting game between two teams with kind of an offense. These two just vanish and show up intermittently, so I'll just call it a crapshoot and...hey, why not, flip a coin. Make it interactive. For me. Who is typing this. Heads UCLA, tails Arizona State. Because Sun Devils have tails. Heads.
My Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 1


11:05 PM

San Jose State (6-3) @ Hawaii (8-2)
Time to test out a new catchphrase. THE COLT BRENNAN MOTHERFUCKING LIGHTSHOW! WITH LASERS! AND LIGHTS! AND TOUCHDOWN PASSES!
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 3

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