Week 7 Rundown: Saturday and Sunday

SATURDAY
12:00 PM

Syracuse (3-3) @ #6 West Virginia (5-0)
Syracuse has been a surprisingly offensive team this year. Wait, that came out wrong. I mean, I guess they've been surprisingly NOT offensive...you should know what I mean. And yes, I did resort to wordplay to avoid talking about how they're going to get killed. Although WVU and Louisville have to slip up sometime.
My Pick: West Virginia
Confidence (out of 5): 3

#14 Iowa (5-1) @ Indiana (3-3)
Well, I guess there's SOME hope for Indiana after last week. But not here.
My Pick: Iowa
Confidence: 4

Army (3-3) @ Connecticut (2-3)
Uh...wow. This is not an easy pick. How far the kind of alright have fallen. Well, the UConn defense is still kind of decent. And Terry Caulley should be able to run on Army. Connecticut's definitely the better team, but Army can win this, especially if Matt Nuzie makes some huge mistake.
My Pick: Connecticut
Confidence: 2

Minnesota (2-4) @ Wisconsin (5-1)
Pretty much the same thing I have to say as last week about Wisconsin. I don't really know HOW good they are, since their only real test has been Michigan. I'm quite down on Minnesota, so that probably won't change after this game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 3

Wake Forest (5-1) @ NC State (3-2)
Well, NC State's win over BC looks a lot better now, at least to me. NCSU's come off two big wins, but Wake's rolled over a wake schedule, so it basically comes down to "Is NC State's new QB legit?" vs. "Is Wake Forest as a team legit?" After seeing Wake live, the former seems much more likely than the latter.
My Pick: NC State
Confidence: 2

South Florida (4-2) @ North Carolina (1-4)
USF's running game has essentially been QB Matt Grothe, who will be starting, although with a bunch of sprained ligaments. Hmmmm. USF's the much better team, and the UConn game proved that the USF running backs can run all over a suspect defense, so I'll give the nod to the Bulls.
My Pick: South Florida
Confidence: 1

Purdue (4-2) @ Northwestern (2-4)
Purdue is all offense, no defense. Northwestern is all...I'll get back to you on that.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 2

---

12:30 PM

Iowa State (3-3) @ #16 Oklahoma (3-2)
The OU defense finally looked good, maybe that's a trend. Even if it's not, Adrian Peterson should be able to win this by himself. Plus I've been down on Iowa State since the near-loss to Northern Iowa.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 3

Vanderbilt (2-4) @ #20 Georgia (5-1)
Vandy's had some tough luck, so they're probably a better team than you think. Still, the Georgia offense looked mildly improved with Tereshinski, and that'll be enough to put away the Commodores easy.
My Pick: Georgia
Confidence: 3

---

1:00 PM

Ball State (2-4) @ Central Michigan (3-3)
Ball State can't stop the pass, even against North Dakota State or Buffalo. CMU's a pretty good team, and even if they give up some points here, they should be able to win a shootout.
My Pick: Central Michigan
Confidence: 3

Miami of Ohio (0-6) @ Buffalo (1-4)
That one win's against Temple, so it's not like it really counts. Miami of Ohio has almost beaten Purdue, Kent State, and Northern Illinois, so they should finally get that elusive victory here.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence: 3

Florida State (3-2) @ Duke (0-5)
FSU's not that bad. I hope.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 4

---

1:30 PM

Rutgers (5-0) @ #25 Navy (5-1)
If both teams just run for a lot of points, does that count as a shootout? Navy might have the better defense, and, dare I say, maybe even the better QB. Or I could just be biased after seeing Brian Hampton become a one-man offense against UConn. If Rutgers wins this one, I'll be moderately on the bandwagon, in that I think their offense could actually make up for their lack of defense. But I don't think that's the case.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 2

---

2:00 PM

Southeastern Missouri State @ #18 Arkansas (4-1)
I think Auburn's better than SEMO.
My Pick: Arkansas
Confidence: 5

Arkansas State (3-2) @ Memphis (1-4)
Outside of the Tennessee game, Memphis has been a competitive if not especially good team. Arkansas State's running game looked good against Army, but then vanished before Sun Belt play. ASU proceeded to run all over Florida International, but against Louisiana-Monroe? Ehhh. I might give Arkansas State more of a chance had they looked impressive in both Sun Belt games, but I don't think they'll have enough to beat a decent C-USA team.
My Pick: Memphis
Confidence: 2

Oklahoma State (3-2) @ Kansas (3-3)
Kansas has been impressive, and since putting in QB Adam Barmann, has shot themselves in the foot with interceptions a lot less. I didn't have many expectations for OK State, so hanging close with Houston looked like a pleasant surprise until the Houston-ULL game last week. Kansas lost to to Texas A&M, but hey, A&M's probably better than the Cowboys.
My Pick: Kansas
Confidence: 2

Northern Illinois (4-2) @ Western Michigan (3-2)
WMU's loss to Ohio has made me more or less give up on the MAC. The Broncos had looked to have things together until then, and NIU looks to be a one-man team, but since is the MAC, I'll just go with the underdog team away from home.
My Pick: Northern Illinois
Confidence: 1

---

2:30 PM

Jacksonville State @ Mississippi State (1-5)
Mississippi State usually loses to a I-AA every year, but I'll be nice and hope they buck the trend.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 2

---

3:00 PM

Tulsa (4-1) @ East Carolina (2-3)
ECU's been up and down from "slightly above average" to "slightly below average." With Houston's loss to LA-Lafayette, Tulsa's probably now the class of the C-USA, especially since their loss to BYU looks a lot better now. The good ECU could show up, but even if they do, I think a close loss will be the best the Pirates can do.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 3

Marshall (1-4) @ SMU (3-3)
Marshall seems to be slowly improving, but SMU suddenly became a decent C-USA team after looking horrible the first two weeks. QB Patrick Willis is back for the Mustangs, and I think they'll be able to continue their momentum.
My Pick: SMU
Confidence: 2

Utah (4-2) @ Wyoming (2-4)
Wyoming's been competitive in all their games, but that loss to UVa looks a lot worse since ECU was able to pull off the win. After Utah whooped TCU, we'll just call the Boise State game an outlier for now.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 3

---

3:30 PM

#4 Ohio State (6-0) @ Michigan State (3-3)
If Michigan State can get the running game going (and that might not be a problem against this Buckeyes defense), the upset could actually happen. I'm not gonna bet on it, however.
My Pick: Ohio State
Confidence: 2

Cincinnati (3-3) @ #11 Louisville (5-0)
The Louisville B-team's hummed along and would probably win easy here. And Brian Brohm may be back! Uh oh.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3

UCLA (4-1) @ #13 Oregon (4-1)
Stat I saw today: Karl Dorrell has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. About sums it up. Even if Oregon doesn't have a defense, UCLA doesn't have a defense or, now, a quarterback.
My Pick: Oregon
Confidence: 3

#22 Missouri (6-0) @ Texas A&M (5-1)
You know, if Army hadn't played A&M so close, the resume of these two teams would be about equal. Missouri impressed early against a weak schedule (especially with how bad Mississippi's been), but didn't look amazingly impressive in Big 12 play so far. A&M may have lost to Texas Tech, which Mizzou beat fairly easily, but I don't think the talent difference is that great. Missouri is probably the better team, but A&M is at home and desperately needs to win one for their coach, and I could see the Tigers easily faltering.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 1

Mississippi (2-4) @ Alabama (4-2)
Ole Miss could not crack 200 yards against Vanderbilt.
My Pick: Alabama
Confidence: 5

Texas Tech (4-2) @ Colorado (0-6)
Colorado seems improved, but, uh, no.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 3

Maryland (3-2) @ Virginia (2-4)
Neither of these teams will probably amount to much, even in such a weak ACC, but Maryland's at least been competitive in every game except at WVU. Virginia, meanwhile, has lost to East Carolina. And Western Michigan.
My Pick: Maryland
Confidence: 2

---

4:00 PM

Eastern Michigan (0-5) @ Bowling Green (3-3)
Well, at least EMU's loss to Louisiana-Lafayette looks better now. I figured BGSU would implode this year, but they've been as good as anyone in the inconsistent-as-heck MAC. EMU's losses don't look THAT bad (well, except Ball State. And Northwestern.), so there may be some hope, but I can't give them the benefit of the doubt just yet. I mean, they only threw for 209 against Ball State.
My Pick: Bowling Green
Confidence: 2

Toledo (2-4) @ Kent State (4-2)
Toledo pretty much has done what I thought BGSU would. However, the Rockets aren't that bad, and I doubt Kent's as good as they've been in MAC play so far. Based on performance, Kent should win big, but based on talent, regression to the mean, and general MAC wackiness, my gut says Toledo. (Also, mmmm sandwiches.)
My Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 1

Louisiana-Monroe (1-4) @ Troy (1-4)
Troy's been inconsistent. ULM's basically just been pretty bad.
My Pick: Troy
Confidence: 2

---

5:00 PM

#7 Cal (5-1) @ Washington State (4-2)
Wazzou's rebounding nicely from a hard-luck year so far, while Cal's rebounded nicely from a bad-luck loss in Week 1. Cal might have the best defense in the Pac 10, for whatever that's worth. While I think Wazzou has as good a shot for #4 in the conference as anyone, I don't think they'll be able to overcome the talent gap.
My Pick: Cal
Confidence: 3

Arizona (2-4) @ Stanford (0-6)
Arizona's disappointing, but Stanford is dead to me.
My Pick: Arizona
Confidence: 2

Hawaii (3-2) @ Fresno State (1-4)
Fresno has just imploded this year, culminating with their loss to Utah State. Utah State! Hawaii's their usual passtacular self, and have done well for themselves this season, losing only to Alabama and Boise by a touchdown each. However, I don't expect Fresno to be this bad for that long. For all the talk about CB Marcus McCauley, Fresno's pass defense hasn't been overly spectacular, so I expect that Fresno won't be able to match up with Hawaii's firepower.
My Pick: Hawaii
Confidence: 1

---

6:00 PM

Utah State (1-5) @ San Jose State (3-1)
USU is coming off of a huge win, but they were just abysmal before that. San Jose State is...good? Really? SJSU's success really just confuses me horribly, but I'm not going to question it, especially against Utah State of all teams.
My Pick: San Jose State
Confidence: 2

---

6:30 PM

Oregon State (2-3) @ Washington (4-2)
Washington's been above-average but not overly impressive, while Oregon State has gotten killed by superior competition (Boise, Cal). I think it should be a game, but UW falls into the "superior competition" category, especially at home.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 2

---

7:00 PM

Baylor (3-3) @ #5 Texas (5-1)
This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 South. When I found that out, I laughed. When this game is over, I will cry.
My Pick: Texas
Confidence: 5

Florida International (0-6) @ Miami (3-2)
This may answer the eternal question: If a nonexistent offense blows out a Sun Belt team, is that offense really nonexistent?
My Pick: Miami
Confidence: 5

Houston (4-2) @ Southern Miss (3-2)
I'm assuming the UH loss to...LA-Lafayette? Really? was a one-time thing. Southern Miss has a defense, but that offense is shaky. I could see USM holding Houston to around 14 or so, but I don't know if the Golden Eagles offense could even match that.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 3

Idaho (3-3) @ Louisiana Tech (1-4)
Idaho's looked impressive in WAC play, beating NMSU and USU pretty easy. HOWEVER, LA Tech QB Zac Champion has an awesome name. I'll go with my head and not my heart, though.
My Pick: Idaho
Confidence: 2

Ohio (3-3) @ Illinois (2-4)
Oh God, who knows. Ohio beat WMU and NIU, but both of those seem pretty fluky. Illinois did lose to Indiana and all, but they have talent (JUICE WILLIAMS!) and could easily have a big day (Michigan State!). The Illini have more talent than the Bobcats, and they've generally played at least to their talent level. Indiana game aside.
My Pick: Illinois
Confidence: 2

---

7:10 PM

#19 Nebraska (5-1) @ Kansas State (4-2)
I'm assuming this is the right start time, and not the 1 AM that Yahoo! has. Nebraska's looked less impressive against decent competition, but KSU lost to Baylor. Admittedly, Kansas State isn't that bad, but they should still lose here.
My Pick: Nebraska
Confidence: 3

---

7:30 PM

UAB (3-3) @ Rice (1-5)
Rice lost to Tulane by 2 touchdowns, so the momentum from the Army win looks to be gone. UAB's been wholly decent, beating teams like ECU and Memphis, even if they did lose to Mississippi State. So yeah, UAB's beat better teams.
My Pick: UAB
Confidence: 2

---

7:45 PM

#2 Florida (6-0) @ #9 Auburn (5-1)
Auburn is a running based team. Florida has the #2 rushing defense in the country. Florida has two good quarterbacks. Florida has a defense that has a knack for big interceptions. Auburn needs their defense to step up in order to have a chance. Said defense got shredded by Arkansas. Need I go on? If Florida can't get the running game going, I could see the Auburn secondary doing some things against Leak, but there are many more ways where Florida can win.
My Pick: Florida
Confidence: 2

---

8:00 PM

#1 Michigan (6-0) @ Penn State (4-2)
Penn State's a pretty good team, and I would be surprised but not shocked if the upset happens, but I can sum up my thoughts on the game in one sentence: It's a shame that Mario Manningham is out, because I'm sure that if they put him in the secondary, Anthony Morelli would throw an interception or two his way.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 3

Arizona State (3-2) @ #3 USC (5-0)
I was worried Washington could upset USC. Or Wazzou. But I'm not worried for the Trojans here. Again, ASU QB Rudy Carpenter's line against the Oregon defense, which is probably not as good as USC's: 6/19, 33 yards, INT. Yep.
My Pick: USC
Confidence: 3

Kentucky (3-3) @ #10 LSU (4-2)
Now that LSU isn't facing another top ten team, back to work.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4

---

9:00 PM

Tulane (2-3) @ UTEP (3-2)
UTEP's regressed to near the pack from last year, but is definitely above-average. Tulane is part of said pack. The usual caveats about The Jordan Palmer Interception Experience apply, but UTEP's the better team, and should win at home.
My Pick: UTEP
Confidence: 2

---

10:00 PM

New Mexico (2-4) @ UNLV (1-4)
UNLV almost beat Iowa State, then pfffft. UNM hasn't really been that great either, outside of an upset on UTEP. I'd say both teams are about equal, so I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the home team that also beat their I-AA opponent.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 1

---

SUNDAY
8:00 PM

#17 Boise State (6-0) @ New Mexico State (2-3)
New Mexico will pass a lot. And lose.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 4