BOWLNANZA!: The Rose Bowl

#2 Michigan (11-1) vs. #8 USC (10-2)

Michigan finished 7-5 last year, the Wolverines' worst finish in a generation or so, and that combined with general complacency had Lloyd Carr needing to come up with a big season to survive. And well, he did it. Michigan steamrolled everyone until losing the battle of the century against Ohio State, and in doing so seemed to have proven themselves to be the #2 team in the country. Still, the logic that "the Wolverines had their shot" prevailed over "have #1 face #2", and thus Michigan has wound up here. Any statistical talk of the Wolverines has to start with that defense, #8 in scoring, #6 in yardage, and absurdly great against the run, giving up only 516 yards on the year (Texas is #2 at 718, and only 7 teams are even under 1000.) On offense, Mike Hart was probably the most consistent running back in the nation, racking up 1515 yards and 14 TDs, while QB Chad Henne also had a good year (2199 yards, 20/7 TD/INT.)

USC lost in the national title game last year, and lost a whole bunch of talent (including some guys named Bush and Leinart), but the Trojans were still expected to be in the national title picture, since USC doesn't rebuild, they reload. And USC was indeed not only in the national title picture, but the national title game until they, well, choked like dogs against UCLA. But anyway, the season's still been a success more or less, as this unproven team has won the Pac 10 and made it to the Rose Bowl, even if they probably don't feel too great about it. John David Booty (2956 yards, 25/9 TD/INT) proved a worthy heir to Palmer and Leinart, and while USC had no 1000-yard rusher, they had an effective three-headed monster in Chauncey Washington (736 yards, 9 TD), Emmanuel Moody (459, 2 TD), and C.J. Gable (409, 4 TD.) Plus the Trojans had a top-15 scoring defense and a top-25 yardage defense, impressive in the offense-happy Pac 10.

USC's a good team, definitely in the top handful, but as a lot of games this season (UCLA, Oregon State, both Washington schools) have shown, they're vulnerable. However, so is Michigan's pass defense, which surprisingly doesn't even finish in the top 70. If the USC O-line can protect their quarterback, the Trojans' receivers are good enough (best in the country, I'd say) to cause some trouble. Still, this was a USC passing attack that had trouble against UCLA, so against the Michigan defense? Ehhhh. Plus USC's probably disappointed, while Michigan is motivated to prove themselves (and hey, they still have an outside shot at that split national title,) so I give the edge to the Wolverines.

My Pick: Michigan
Confidence (out of 5): 1