Just in time.
1. LSU
2. USC
3. West Virginia
4. Oklahoma
5. Michigan
6. Texas
7. Louisville
8. South Carolina
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Penn State
12. Alabama
13. Texas A&M
14. Ohio State
15. Wisconsin
16. Florida
17. Oregon
18. Georgia
19. Miami
20. South Florida
21. Missouri
22. Hawaii
23. Nebraska
24. Clemson
25. Arizona State
26. Boise State
27. TCU
28. UCLA
29. Tennessee
30. Oklahoma State
31. California
32. Arkansas
33. Georgia Tech
34. Rutgers
35. Illinois
36. Iowa
37. Auburn
38. Virginia
39. Purdue
40. NC State
41. Southern Miss
42. Oregon State
43. Brigham Young
44. Kansas State
45. Texas Tech
46. Notre Dame
47. Utah
48. Arizona
49. Boston College
50. Vanderbilt
51. Cincinnati
52. Kansas
53. Pittsburgh
54. Kentucky
55. Northwestern
56. Navy
57. Houston
58. Washington State
59. Mississippi State
60. Wake Forest
61. Maryland
62. New Mexico State
63. Western Michigan
64. New Mexico
65. Colorado
66. Colorado State
67. Tulsa
68. Washington
69. Michigan State
70. Indiana
71. Central Michigan
72. Troy
73. Connecticut
74. Mississippi
75. San Jose State
76. Kent State
77. Stanford
78. Fresno State
79. Minnesota
80. Wyoming
81. North Carolina
82. Bowling Green
83. Central Florida
84. Toledo
85. Iowa State
86. Memphis
87. UNLV
88. Nevada
89. UTEP
90. SMU
91. East Carolina
92. Miami of Ohio
93. Marshall
94. Baylor
95. Ohio
96. Northern Illinois
97. Louisiana-Monroe
98. San Diego State
99. Akron
100. Duke
101. Syracuse
102. Ball State
103. Air Force
104. Arkansas State
105. Eastern Michigan
106. Rice
107. Florida Atlantic
108. Buffalo
109. Middle Tennessee State
110. Tulane
111. Louisiana-Lafayette
112. Idaho
113. Utah State
114. Temple
115. North Texas
116. Louisiana Tech
117. Army
118. Florida International
119. UAB
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Week 1 Rundown: Thursday and Friday
You mean I DON'T have to write whole paragraphs? Anyway, no rankings (yet), 119'll be up, don't you worry. HOORAY ALPHABETICAL ORDER!
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
Miami of Ohio @ Ball State
MAC parity alert! Ball State has a definite chance of an upset, if this is one, but the Cardinals defense was horrible last year and Miami has potent weapons at QB and RB, so I'll give the RedHawks the edge.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Buffalo @ Rutgers
When I said Rutgers was overrated, they're not THIS overrated. Buffalo has a sliver of a chance, though.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
Southeast Missouri State @ Cincinnati
I think I may have said something at some point about Cincinnati actually being less boring this year. Just thinking about this game makes me yawn, so I may have to take that back.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5
Tulsa @ Louisiana-Monroe
Could be an upset special. Tulsa easily has the talent edge, but is learning a new system on offense, while ULM has a high-powered attack. I'll still pick Tulsa, but since the Sun Belt usually has one or two inexplicable wins a year over a solid mid-major, this could help fill the quota.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Murray State @ Louisville
It's a close one, but...
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
Kent State @ Iowa State
Kent State's an upper-echelon MAC team (or so I think -- God, the parity in the MAC is frustrating for prognosticating), and while ISU has some talented players, as a team? Ehhhh. Cyclones have a chance being at home and perhaps wanting to make a big debut for coach Gene Chizik, though.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
LSU @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State is a much better team than people think. LSU will almost surely destroy them.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Southeastern Louisiana @ New Mexico State
Hal Mumme left Southeastern Louisiana after the 2004 season to take the head coaching job at New Mexico State. QB Chase Holbrook followed him there and wound up being one of the best in the WAC last year. To try and get revenge, Southeastern Louisiana will try to hold them under 500 yards.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 5
8:05 PM
UNLV @ Utah State
Both teams have resons for optimism, but UNLV's a league above USU. The Rebels are looking to make it to a bowl; the Aggies are looking to fend off Louisiana Tech and Idaho.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Weber State @ Boise State
A Weber State upset here would be like Boise's upset of Oklahoma last year. Just without the chance of happening.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
10:00 PM
Utah @ Oregon State
An interesting game! Utah's a darkhorse among the mid-major ranks, and while Oregon State has been getting some darkhorse love themselves, ehhhhh. OSU's star WR Sammie Stroughter won't be with them, and coach Mike Riley plans to use the first half to figure out which QB to go with for the season. Which...seems like an interesting time to do things. And a horrible idea. And for prediction's sake, I believe that Riley will go with the QB that will result in them losing.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
7:30 PM
Navy @ Temple
Temple has their first MAC game against Buffalo next week. They'll probably commemorate their departure from Independent status with a game that should be like much of their Independent tenure: a crushing defeat.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Washington @ Syracuse
CRIPPLE FIGHT! Washington probably won't have a good year, but they have some talent on both sides of the ball. New Huskies QB Jake Locker may struggle, but even if he does, he should be more productive than the anemic Syracuse offense.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 2
THURSDAY
7:00 PM
Miami of Ohio @ Ball State
MAC parity alert! Ball State has a definite chance of an upset, if this is one, but the Cardinals defense was horrible last year and Miami has potent weapons at QB and RB, so I'll give the RedHawks the edge.
My Pick: Miami of Ohio
Confidence (out of 5): 2
Buffalo @ Rutgers
When I said Rutgers was overrated, they're not THIS overrated. Buffalo has a sliver of a chance, though.
My Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 4
Southeast Missouri State @ Cincinnati
I think I may have said something at some point about Cincinnati actually being less boring this year. Just thinking about this game makes me yawn, so I may have to take that back.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 5
Tulsa @ Louisiana-Monroe
Could be an upset special. Tulsa easily has the talent edge, but is learning a new system on offense, while ULM has a high-powered attack. I'll still pick Tulsa, but since the Sun Belt usually has one or two inexplicable wins a year over a solid mid-major, this could help fill the quota.
My Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 1
7:30 PM
Murray State @ Louisville
It's a close one, but...
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 5
8:00 PM
Kent State @ Iowa State
Kent State's an upper-echelon MAC team (or so I think -- God, the parity in the MAC is frustrating for prognosticating), and while ISU has some talented players, as a team? Ehhhh. Cyclones have a chance being at home and perhaps wanting to make a big debut for coach Gene Chizik, though.
My Pick: Kent State
Confidence: 1
LSU @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State is a much better team than people think. LSU will almost surely destroy them.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 4
Southeastern Louisiana @ New Mexico State
Hal Mumme left Southeastern Louisiana after the 2004 season to take the head coaching job at New Mexico State. QB Chase Holbrook followed him there and wound up being one of the best in the WAC last year. To try and get revenge, Southeastern Louisiana will try to hold them under 500 yards.
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 5
8:05 PM
UNLV @ Utah State
Both teams have resons for optimism, but UNLV's a league above USU. The Rebels are looking to make it to a bowl; the Aggies are looking to fend off Louisiana Tech and Idaho.
My Pick: UNLV
Confidence: 3
9:00 PM
Weber State @ Boise State
A Weber State upset here would be like Boise's upset of Oklahoma last year. Just without the chance of happening.
My Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 5
10:00 PM
Utah @ Oregon State
An interesting game! Utah's a darkhorse among the mid-major ranks, and while Oregon State has been getting some darkhorse love themselves, ehhhhh. OSU's star WR Sammie Stroughter won't be with them, and coach Mike Riley plans to use the first half to figure out which QB to go with for the season. Which...seems like an interesting time to do things. And a horrible idea. And for prediction's sake, I believe that Riley will go with the QB that will result in them losing.
My Pick: Utah
Confidence: 2
FRIDAY
7:30 PM
Navy @ Temple
Temple has their first MAC game against Buffalo next week. They'll probably commemorate their departure from Independent status with a game that should be like much of their Independent tenure: a crushing defeat.
My Pick: Navy
Confidence: 4
8:00 PM
Washington @ Syracuse
CRIPPLE FIGHT! Washington probably won't have a good year, but they have some talent on both sides of the ball. New Huskies QB Jake Locker may struggle, but even if he does, he should be more productive than the anemic Syracuse offense.
My Pick: Washington
Confidence: 2
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE INDEPENDENTS
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Notre Dame (#38 overall - AT: #38, LN: #36, SN: #39, ST: #34)
2. Navy (#56 overall - AT: #48, LN: #64, SN: #50, ST: #75)
3. Army (#111 overall - AT: #111, LN: #114, SN: #103, ST: #114)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Notre Dame
The Irish shouldn't be too far off last year's team despite returning only 9 starters; unfortunately, last year was about an 8-win team, and the Irish schedule does them no favors. Whoever the starting QB is, he'll be behind a question mark of an offensive line; two excellent starters return in center John Sullivan and tackle Sam Young, but past that the line is as inexperienced as it is talented. At the very least, the running game may remain at about the same level, despite the loss of star RB Darius Walker; sophomore James Aldridge was one of the nation's top recruits in 2006, and is capable of a huge year now that he's healthy. The defense may hold up surprisingly well, even though the defensive line was absolutely gutted past DE Trevor Laws. Going to a 3-4 defense is a positive move for this season, as linebacker is probably the best position on this D; Joe Brockington and Maurice Crum are an excellent returning duo, and the talent level of the depth is near-elite. The secondary returns two starters, including third team all-American SS Tom Zbikowski, and essentially has a third in 2005 starting CB Ambrose Wooden. Maybe this year they won't get torched. Ohhhh ya burnt. Which, in fact, they were often. Anyway, the last four games on UND's schedule are winnable; the problem is, they may start the season 0-8, especially since Michigan State traditionally plays them tough. There's enough talent to pull off an upset at UCLA, but the Irish will probably have to win two of the home games against Georgia Tech, Michigan State, and BC to make it to .500.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 wins
2. Navy
It's almost pointless to analyze the Navy defense; they have an excellent system in place, and will run, run, then run some more, and keep running, and run for a lot of yards. But it's worth mentioning that they have an excellent stable of backs, led by seniors FB Adam Ballard and SB Reggie Campbell, who scored an NCAA bowl record 5 TDs against Colorado State in 2005. The defense is the real concern/variable this season, as the Midshipmen return only three starters. At the very least, both starting corners return for the secondary, and the linebacking corps has some talented upperclassmen. Still, the defensive line could very likely get pushed around, resulting in whatever the rushing equivalent of a shootout is. This could be a down year for Navy, but they have pretty much the opposite of the Notre Dame schedule, with Rutgers and the Irish themselves being the two major tests. It'd take a disaster for Navy not to be bowl eligible.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 wins
3. Army
David Pevoto returns at QB after a pretty awful junior campaign, where he barely reached 1000 yards and threw for a 6/14 TD/INT ratio. Still, he should improve on those numbers. Hopefully. The Black Knights also return a talented duo of backs in RB Wesley McMahand and FB Mike Viti, but they'll be behind a suspect offensive line that only returns two starters. The defense should be the strength of the team. While the defensive line loses two starters, they get a very big boost in talented DT Ted Bentler, who transfers from Iowa. The secondary should also be better, with three returning starters, but while the linebacking corps returns lots of upperclassmen, experience is scarce. The defense should be solid, but the offense will probably prevent them from going anywhere. At the very least, Army has some winnable home games against URI, Temple, and Tulane, but that's about it.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 wins
1. Notre Dame (#38 overall - AT: #38, LN: #36, SN: #39, ST: #34)
2. Navy (#56 overall - AT: #48, LN: #64, SN: #50, ST: #75)
3. Army (#111 overall - AT: #111, LN: #114, SN: #103, ST: #114)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Notre Dame
The Irish shouldn't be too far off last year's team despite returning only 9 starters; unfortunately, last year was about an 8-win team, and the Irish schedule does them no favors. Whoever the starting QB is, he'll be behind a question mark of an offensive line; two excellent starters return in center John Sullivan and tackle Sam Young, but past that the line is as inexperienced as it is talented. At the very least, the running game may remain at about the same level, despite the loss of star RB Darius Walker; sophomore James Aldridge was one of the nation's top recruits in 2006, and is capable of a huge year now that he's healthy. The defense may hold up surprisingly well, even though the defensive line was absolutely gutted past DE Trevor Laws. Going to a 3-4 defense is a positive move for this season, as linebacker is probably the best position on this D; Joe Brockington and Maurice Crum are an excellent returning duo, and the talent level of the depth is near-elite. The secondary returns two starters, including third team all-American SS Tom Zbikowski, and essentially has a third in 2005 starting CB Ambrose Wooden. Maybe this year they won't get torched. Ohhhh ya burnt. Which, in fact, they were often. Anyway, the last four games on UND's schedule are winnable; the problem is, they may start the season 0-8, especially since Michigan State traditionally plays them tough. There's enough talent to pull off an upset at UCLA, but the Irish will probably have to win two of the home games against Georgia Tech, Michigan State, and BC to make it to .500.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 wins
2. Navy
It's almost pointless to analyze the Navy defense; they have an excellent system in place, and will run, run, then run some more, and keep running, and run for a lot of yards. But it's worth mentioning that they have an excellent stable of backs, led by seniors FB Adam Ballard and SB Reggie Campbell, who scored an NCAA bowl record 5 TDs against Colorado State in 2005. The defense is the real concern/variable this season, as the Midshipmen return only three starters. At the very least, both starting corners return for the secondary, and the linebacking corps has some talented upperclassmen. Still, the defensive line could very likely get pushed around, resulting in whatever the rushing equivalent of a shootout is. This could be a down year for Navy, but they have pretty much the opposite of the Notre Dame schedule, with Rutgers and the Irish themselves being the two major tests. It'd take a disaster for Navy not to be bowl eligible.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 wins
3. Army
David Pevoto returns at QB after a pretty awful junior campaign, where he barely reached 1000 yards and threw for a 6/14 TD/INT ratio. Still, he should improve on those numbers. Hopefully. The Black Knights also return a talented duo of backs in RB Wesley McMahand and FB Mike Viti, but they'll be behind a suspect offensive line that only returns two starters. The defense should be the strength of the team. While the defensive line loses two starters, they get a very big boost in talented DT Ted Bentler, who transfers from Iowa. The secondary should also be better, with three returning starters, but while the linebacking corps returns lots of upperclassmen, experience is scarce. The defense should be solid, but the offense will probably prevent them from going anywhere. At the very least, Army has some winnable home games against URI, Temple, and Tulane, but that's about it.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 wins
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE SUN BELT
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Troy (#79 overall - AT: #82, LN: #81, SN: #61, ST: #91)
2. Middle Tennessee State (#102 overall - AT: #105, LN: #100, SN: #89, ST: #102)
3. Arkansas State (#105 overall - AT: #104, LN: #109, SN: #83, ST: #109)
4. Louisiana-Monroe (#106 overall - AT: #110, LN: #96, SN: #111, ST: #98)
5. Florida Atlantic (#107 overall - AT: #109, LN: #108, SN: #101, ST: #99)
6. Louisiana-Lafayette (#108 overall - AT: #112, LN: #103, SN: #94, ST: #112)
7. North Texas (#112 overall - AT: #114, LN: #112, SN: #113, ST: #118)
8. Florida International (#119 overall - AT: #119, LN: #119, SN: #119, ST: #119)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Troy
This was a middle of the road team last year in terms of statistics, but there's just too much talent here to not have the Trojans at #1. Senior QB Omar Hougabook was a revelation after transferring in from junior college, throwing for 2401 and a 21/17 TD/INT ratio on 61.3% passing. He should improve, at the very least in that TD/INT ratio. The offensive line is the biggest question mark, returning only one starter, but heavy on JuCo talent; still, talented senior RB Kenny Cattouse may rush for 1000 either way. On defense, the Trojans return eight starters, and most of the open spots are filled by the usual highly talented transfers: DTs Chris Bradwell (Florida State) and Dion Gales (Ole Miss), as well as SS Trevor Ford (Florida State). The defense as a whole is both more experienced and more talented, and is the elite of the Sun Belt. The questions on offense, especially the line, means this team is far from invincible in the conference, but that defense alone should guarantee bowl-eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
2. Louisiana-Monroe
The Warhawks had the best offense in the Sun Belt last year, and return all 11 starters there - uh-oh. QB Kinsmon Lancaster has eternally endeared himself to me by outgaining Kansas (yes, the entire team) all by his lonesome in last year's 19-21 loss. Over the season, his decision-making greatly improved, so he should be a much better quarterback, and have a much better TD/INT ratio than last year's 7/14. RB Calvin Dawson had 1210 yards and 11 TD last year, and is one of the conference's best backs; he'll be running behind a line that not only returns all five starters, but 2005 starting center Brent Gregston. Also back is backup tackle Joseph Joseph, whose middle name may or may not be Joseph. On defense, the front seven returns five starters and should be a strength, but the secondary is a question mark; starter Greg James returns and injuries last year leave some starting experience this year, but all in all, the talent level is fairly mediocre. Still, most of last year's top QBs in the conference have graduated, so the Warhawks get fairly lucky. ULM gets Troy on the road, but the Warhawks offense should make them a favorite in every other Sun Belt game, as well as one of the favorites to take home the conference title.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Arkansas State
The Indians projected out as the best team in the Sun Belt, but had some bad luck and only finished 4-3 in the conference. Sophomore QB Corey Leonard had a mediocre year, but completed less than 50% of his passes; he should improve that and see some better results, especially since ASU returns pretty much every receiving of note. All-Sun Belt RB Reggie Arnold will probably be the star of the offense either way, though, since he ran for 1076 yards and 4 TD as a freshman, despite a nagging ankle injury for half the year. On defense, the front seven is pretty much a question mark, despite the presence of star LB Koby McKinnon. Still, the defense should be improved thanks to what's probably the conference's best secondary, returning four starters and the excellent safety duo of FS Khayyam Burns and two-time all-Sun Belt SS Tyrell Johnson. The Indians should be an improved team, but since they don't have a I-AA gimme like most of the conference, the Sun Belt's parity means a repeat of last year's 6-6 finish should be a best-case scenario.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
4. Florida Atlantic
FAU benefits from having a very veteran squad, returning 18 starters, the most in the Sun Belt. Sophomore QB Rusty Smith should improve over last year's 6/8 TD/INT ratio, and the running back corps, with returning starter Charles Pierre, 2005 star DiIvory Edgecomb, and top frosh Xavier Stinson, has both talent and depth. They'll be behind a veteran offensive line. The defensive line should be a strength, especially down the middle, as DT Josh Pinnick was all-Sun Belt last year, and fellow DT Jervonte Jackson earned second-team honors. Despite having the one lost starter, the secondary should also improve, since the team returns 2005 starting FS Greg Joseph at the open cornerback slot. FAU has a pretty unwinnable OOC schedule, but the Owls luckily get both Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe at home; FAU could be a surprise contender for the conference title, and gain bowl-eligibility purely on in-conference wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Middle Tennessee State
The offense scored about a touchdown per game more than they should've, so that, combined with only 6 starters returning on offense, suggests a serious regression. Still, the cupboard isn't completely bare; although new QB Joe Craddock was pretty awful in limited action, pretty much every top receiver returns from a veteran unit. The running game also shouldn't see much of a dropoff, as senior DeMarco McNair has a comparable talent level to departed starter Eugene Gross. The offensive line should be solid, but is more of a question mark than the other units - only two starters return, including stud left tackle Franklin Dunbar, but there's some starting experience elsewhere on the depth chart. The defense has a gaping hole at the linebacking corps, but should be fine everywhere else. All four starters return along the line, and while only two starters in the secondary return, they're two great ones: top CB Bradley Robinson and free safety Damon Nickson, who was all-Sun Belt last year as both a safety and a return man. Bowl eligibility isn't out of the question, but this should be a down year for the Blue Raiders.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-6 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
6. Louisiana-Lafayette
Junior Michael Desormeaux takes over at QB; departed four-year starter Jerry Babb had a disappointing final season, so Desormeaux should at least match that stat-line. However, with a strong offensive line, All-Sun Belt RB Tyrell Fenroy should once again be the best player on the offense; Fenroy ran for 1197 yards and 10 TD as a sophomore last year. The defense should at least stay somewhat steady. While linebacker has the least returning starters, 2005 starter Mark Risher returns there, leaving the defensive line as the hardest hit unit. The secondary also suffers some losses, but all in all, there's enough starting experience throughout the defense that the dropoff shouldn't be all that major. Still, while the Ragin' Cajuns aren't hit as hard by graduation as their 10 departed starters would suggest, this is still a team generally down a bit from last year. As with any Sun Belt team, there's enough parity where ULL may have a solid season, but matching last year's 6-6 record should be considered a success.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
7. North Texas
Longtime head coach Darrell Dickey is gone, and has been replaced by Todd Dodge, who used a high-powered pass offense to win a number of Texas State titles at Southlake Carroll high school. While the transition to the new offense will likely prevent any huge gains, there's enough talent for the offense to improve. QB Daniel Meager should improve upon last year's, pardon the horrible pun, meager returns at the position, especially in a more pass-based scheme. Meanwhile, senior RB Jamario Thomas, who led the nation in rushing oh so long ago as a freshman, should hopefully outproduce last year's running game, which was the Mean Green's worst in a decade. Still, his efforts may be thwarted by a shaky offensive line, that while it returns some upperclassmen, is fairly low on experience and is, again, learning a new system. The defense was actually pretty decent, if a little unlucky, last year, and should be pretty excellent by Sun Belt standards, as ten starters return. North Texas's strength has typically been its defense, and this year is no exception. While the D should keep UNT in games, with the change in schemes, it's doubtful the Mean Green will actually be able to win too many. There's always a chance a new offense could take immediately and benefit from some luck, like Rice last year, but that's a very risky bet.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
8. Florida International
FIU actually had an excellent defense last year, leading the NCAA in tackles for loss, but they also may have led the NCAA in bad luck, as they gave up about 8 or 9 points more than their yardage would indicate. Unfortunately, that defense has been gutted of most of its best players, and new coach Mario Cristobal is installing new schemes. A starting QB has yet to be announced, but the winner of the derby should be able to outproduce the departed Josh Padrick, who had a decent completion percentage but an awful 5/14 TD/INT ratio. The running game should be a strength though, despite the change in offensive line schemes, as all five starters on the line return to pave the way for Deadspin Hall of Famer A'Mod Ned and Julian Reams. On defense, the secondary should at least be decent, as three starters return. But the front seven was absolutely decimated; OLB James Black is gone, all-Sun Belt OLB Alexander Bostic is gone, all-Sun Belt MLB Keyonvis Bouie is gone, and perhaps most of all, tackle-for-loss machine DE Antwan Barnes is gone. There's enough talent there to be competitive in most Sun Belt games, but while FIU may actually win a game this year, that may wind up being the best news.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
1. Troy (#79 overall - AT: #82, LN: #81, SN: #61, ST: #91)
2. Middle Tennessee State (#102 overall - AT: #105, LN: #100, SN: #89, ST: #102)
3. Arkansas State (#105 overall - AT: #104, LN: #109, SN: #83, ST: #109)
4. Louisiana-Monroe (#106 overall - AT: #110, LN: #96, SN: #111, ST: #98)
5. Florida Atlantic (#107 overall - AT: #109, LN: #108, SN: #101, ST: #99)
6. Louisiana-Lafayette (#108 overall - AT: #112, LN: #103, SN: #94, ST: #112)
7. North Texas (#112 overall - AT: #114, LN: #112, SN: #113, ST: #118)
8. Florida International (#119 overall - AT: #119, LN: #119, SN: #119, ST: #119)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Troy
This was a middle of the road team last year in terms of statistics, but there's just too much talent here to not have the Trojans at #1. Senior QB Omar Hougabook was a revelation after transferring in from junior college, throwing for 2401 and a 21/17 TD/INT ratio on 61.3% passing. He should improve, at the very least in that TD/INT ratio. The offensive line is the biggest question mark, returning only one starter, but heavy on JuCo talent; still, talented senior RB Kenny Cattouse may rush for 1000 either way. On defense, the Trojans return eight starters, and most of the open spots are filled by the usual highly talented transfers: DTs Chris Bradwell (Florida State) and Dion Gales (Ole Miss), as well as SS Trevor Ford (Florida State). The defense as a whole is both more experienced and more talented, and is the elite of the Sun Belt. The questions on offense, especially the line, means this team is far from invincible in the conference, but that defense alone should guarantee bowl-eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
2. Louisiana-Monroe
The Warhawks had the best offense in the Sun Belt last year, and return all 11 starters there - uh-oh. QB Kinsmon Lancaster has eternally endeared himself to me by outgaining Kansas (yes, the entire team) all by his lonesome in last year's 19-21 loss. Over the season, his decision-making greatly improved, so he should be a much better quarterback, and have a much better TD/INT ratio than last year's 7/14. RB Calvin Dawson had 1210 yards and 11 TD last year, and is one of the conference's best backs; he'll be running behind a line that not only returns all five starters, but 2005 starting center Brent Gregston. Also back is backup tackle Joseph Joseph, whose middle name may or may not be Joseph. On defense, the front seven returns five starters and should be a strength, but the secondary is a question mark; starter Greg James returns and injuries last year leave some starting experience this year, but all in all, the talent level is fairly mediocre. Still, most of last year's top QBs in the conference have graduated, so the Warhawks get fairly lucky. ULM gets Troy on the road, but the Warhawks offense should make them a favorite in every other Sun Belt game, as well as one of the favorites to take home the conference title.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Arkansas State
The Indians projected out as the best team in the Sun Belt, but had some bad luck and only finished 4-3 in the conference. Sophomore QB Corey Leonard had a mediocre year, but completed less than 50% of his passes; he should improve that and see some better results, especially since ASU returns pretty much every receiving of note. All-Sun Belt RB Reggie Arnold will probably be the star of the offense either way, though, since he ran for 1076 yards and 4 TD as a freshman, despite a nagging ankle injury for half the year. On defense, the front seven is pretty much a question mark, despite the presence of star LB Koby McKinnon. Still, the defense should be improved thanks to what's probably the conference's best secondary, returning four starters and the excellent safety duo of FS Khayyam Burns and two-time all-Sun Belt SS Tyrell Johnson. The Indians should be an improved team, but since they don't have a I-AA gimme like most of the conference, the Sun Belt's parity means a repeat of last year's 6-6 finish should be a best-case scenario.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
4. Florida Atlantic
FAU benefits from having a very veteran squad, returning 18 starters, the most in the Sun Belt. Sophomore QB Rusty Smith should improve over last year's 6/8 TD/INT ratio, and the running back corps, with returning starter Charles Pierre, 2005 star DiIvory Edgecomb, and top frosh Xavier Stinson, has both talent and depth. They'll be behind a veteran offensive line. The defensive line should be a strength, especially down the middle, as DT Josh Pinnick was all-Sun Belt last year, and fellow DT Jervonte Jackson earned second-team honors. Despite having the one lost starter, the secondary should also improve, since the team returns 2005 starting FS Greg Joseph at the open cornerback slot. FAU has a pretty unwinnable OOC schedule, but the Owls luckily get both Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe at home; FAU could be a surprise contender for the conference title, and gain bowl-eligibility purely on in-conference wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Middle Tennessee State
The offense scored about a touchdown per game more than they should've, so that, combined with only 6 starters returning on offense, suggests a serious regression. Still, the cupboard isn't completely bare; although new QB Joe Craddock was pretty awful in limited action, pretty much every top receiver returns from a veteran unit. The running game also shouldn't see much of a dropoff, as senior DeMarco McNair has a comparable talent level to departed starter Eugene Gross. The offensive line should be solid, but is more of a question mark than the other units - only two starters return, including stud left tackle Franklin Dunbar, but there's some starting experience elsewhere on the depth chart. The defense has a gaping hole at the linebacking corps, but should be fine everywhere else. All four starters return along the line, and while only two starters in the secondary return, they're two great ones: top CB Bradley Robinson and free safety Damon Nickson, who was all-Sun Belt last year as both a safety and a return man. Bowl eligibility isn't out of the question, but this should be a down year for the Blue Raiders.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-6 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
6. Louisiana-Lafayette
Junior Michael Desormeaux takes over at QB; departed four-year starter Jerry Babb had a disappointing final season, so Desormeaux should at least match that stat-line. However, with a strong offensive line, All-Sun Belt RB Tyrell Fenroy should once again be the best player on the offense; Fenroy ran for 1197 yards and 10 TD as a sophomore last year. The defense should at least stay somewhat steady. While linebacker has the least returning starters, 2005 starter Mark Risher returns there, leaving the defensive line as the hardest hit unit. The secondary also suffers some losses, but all in all, there's enough starting experience throughout the defense that the dropoff shouldn't be all that major. Still, while the Ragin' Cajuns aren't hit as hard by graduation as their 10 departed starters would suggest, this is still a team generally down a bit from last year. As with any Sun Belt team, there's enough parity where ULL may have a solid season, but matching last year's 6-6 record should be considered a success.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
7. North Texas
Longtime head coach Darrell Dickey is gone, and has been replaced by Todd Dodge, who used a high-powered pass offense to win a number of Texas State titles at Southlake Carroll high school. While the transition to the new offense will likely prevent any huge gains, there's enough talent for the offense to improve. QB Daniel Meager should improve upon last year's, pardon the horrible pun, meager returns at the position, especially in a more pass-based scheme. Meanwhile, senior RB Jamario Thomas, who led the nation in rushing oh so long ago as a freshman, should hopefully outproduce last year's running game, which was the Mean Green's worst in a decade. Still, his efforts may be thwarted by a shaky offensive line, that while it returns some upperclassmen, is fairly low on experience and is, again, learning a new system. The defense was actually pretty decent, if a little unlucky, last year, and should be pretty excellent by Sun Belt standards, as ten starters return. North Texas's strength has typically been its defense, and this year is no exception. While the D should keep UNT in games, with the change in schemes, it's doubtful the Mean Green will actually be able to win too many. There's always a chance a new offense could take immediately and benefit from some luck, like Rice last year, but that's a very risky bet.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
8. Florida International
FIU actually had an excellent defense last year, leading the NCAA in tackles for loss, but they also may have led the NCAA in bad luck, as they gave up about 8 or 9 points more than their yardage would indicate. Unfortunately, that defense has been gutted of most of its best players, and new coach Mario Cristobal is installing new schemes. A starting QB has yet to be announced, but the winner of the derby should be able to outproduce the departed Josh Padrick, who had a decent completion percentage but an awful 5/14 TD/INT ratio. The running game should be a strength though, despite the change in offensive line schemes, as all five starters on the line return to pave the way for Deadspin Hall of Famer A'Mod Ned and Julian Reams. On defense, the secondary should at least be decent, as three starters return. But the front seven was absolutely decimated; OLB James Black is gone, all-Sun Belt OLB Alexander Bostic is gone, all-Sun Belt MLB Keyonvis Bouie is gone, and perhaps most of all, tackle-for-loss machine DE Antwan Barnes is gone. There's enough talent there to be competitive in most Sun Belt games, but while FIU may actually win a game this year, that may wind up being the best news.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
The 2007 NCAA Previewtacular: THE MAC
THE CONSENSUS:
MAC East:
1. Ohio (#85 overall - AT: #90, LN: #85, SN: #66, ST: #100)
2. Miami of Ohio (#86t overall - AT: #97, LN: #94, SN: #58, ST: #93)
3. Kent State (#88 overall - AT: #88, LN: #73, SN: #109, ST: #78)
4. Bowling Green (#93t overall - AT: #94, LN: #106, SN: #67, ST: #95)
5. Akron (#100 overall - AT: #101, LN: #86, SN: #96, ST: #103)
6. Temple (#112t overall - AT: #115, LN: #118, SN: #95, ST: #116)
7. Buffalo (#118 overall - AT: #118, LN: #116, SN: #118, ST: #115)
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan (#59 overall - AT: #68, LN: #62, SN: #62, ST: #54)
2. Central Michigan (#70 overall - AT: #59, LN: #54, SN: #90, ST: #80)
3. Toledo (#74t overall - AT: #81, LN: #88, SN: #68, ST: #60)
4. Ball State (#91 overall - AT: #93, LN: #101, SN: #64, ST: #96)
5. Northern Illinois (#92 overall - AT: #96, LN: #105, SN: #91, ST: #66)
6. Eastern Michigan (#115 overall - AT: #116, LN: #115, SN: #116, ST: #108)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
MAC East:
1. Kent State
Kent State was a pretty good team last year that deserved to be a game or two over .500, but suffered from an unlucky offense and bad luck in general. Starting QB Julian Edelman and starting RB Eugene Jarvis both return, and both should be much improved from mediocre 2006 campaigns. A stronger offensive line, returning four starters from last year and one from '05, helps immensely. A pretty good defense should be one of the MAC's best, as eight starters return. The secondary may be a weakness though, as only two starters return and the depth is somewhat shaky. While Kent isn't a runaway favorite in the East, they're solidly the best team; between last year's bad luck and returning experience, the Golden Flashes should get into their first bowl since 1972.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-7 conference wins
2. Bowling Green
After a down year, the Bowling Green offense should be up and running again this year, returning 7 starters. Highly-talented junior QB Anthony Turner returns after a promising season, and he'll be protected by a strong offensive line, led by all-MAC center Kory Lichtensteiger. The running game should also be much improved after some injury struggles last year, as every RB of note returns, and the Falcons add JuCo transfer Eric Ransom. The defense was decent but unlucky last year, and the only real question is along the defensive line. There's some returning experience, but starting TE Sean O'Drobinak was actually moved to DT. Defensive MVP Erique Dozier returns at middle linebacker, and the secondary should be very much improved, returning all four starters from what was a young unit last season. While the Falcons won't reach the heights of some of their seasons in the early decade, they should have a much improved record and make it back to a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Miami of Ohio
The RedHawks offense should improve, especially in the running game, where senior Brandon Murphy should greatly improve over a lackluster, injury-filled 2006, and where the team adds very talented recruit Thomas Merriweather. The 2.8 yards per carry of last year should also improve thanks to a much better offensive line, where essentially every starter returns, and Maryland transfer Zachary Marshall is also brought in. Senior QB Mike Kokal had a fine if unnotable campaign last season in his debut as a starter, and his numbers should improve despite heavy losses in the receiving corps. Last year's average defense should be around the same level, if not slightly improved. There's losses in every unit, but also good experience, led by the return of top CB Jerrid Gaines. Miami should have noticeable improvement over last year's 2-10 record. Bowl eligibility is somewhat of a 50/50 proposition, especially since the RedHawks only play 7 conference games, but getting both BGSU and Akron at home, as well as only Ball State from the West, helps.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
4. Ohio
The offense was pretty bad last year, but managed to score about a touchdown more than their yardage would suggest; while the good news is that the offense should be improved, even with only five returning starters, the bad news is that their scoring will probably still go down. At the very least, 4 of the 5 starters returning will benefit the running game, which is the Bobcats' bread and butter. Senior RB Kalvin McRae should repeat his excellent season last year behind an experienced offensive line. New QB and ex-Illinois starter Brad Bower should improve on last year's mediocre numbers at the position, although he has a fairly awful 1/7 TD/INT ratio in spot duty last season. A pretty good defense last year could move in either direction - while three of four starters return for both the defensive line and secondary, no linebackers return with any previous starts at the position. Still, this is overall a solid team, even if they shouldn't match last year's 9 wins. With a weaker OOC schedule than many of its peers, Ohio has a very good shot at repeating as a bowl eligible team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Akron
Akron had a surprisingly poor offense last year with now-departed QB Luke Getsy, and things are a question mark for 2007. Very talented RB Dennis Kennedy returns, as does pretty much every WR from a very good group, but it remains to be seen if their talent will be facilitated. New QB Carlton Jackson has the entirety of the experience at the position, going 1 for 1 for 2 yards last season, and only left tackle Chris Kemme returns along the offensive line. Things are somewhat more optimistic and definitely more definite on the defense, where essentially 9 starters return. Their top two defensive linemen depart, so that unit is somewhat of a question mark, but last year's starters return everywhere but strong safety, where 2005 starter Chevin Pace comes back. Also, cornerback Reggie Corner has a very appropriate name. Akron's pretty easily the weak sister among the top 5 MAC East teams, but they have some winnable games against lower-tier BCS schools, and combined with the parity in the conference, this is another team that could easily make a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
6. Buffalo
Buffalo was a very bad team on both sides of the ball last year, but with 9 starters returning on each side of the ball, things are looking up. QB Drew Willy returns after a decent year, and should benefit from most of the WR depth returning. The offensive line returns four starters and is very experienced, which could lead to sophomore RB James Starks, who was 2nd team all-MAC last season, having a breakout year. Starks's health is paramount, however, as most of the RB depth has graduated. The defense should improve, returning 9 starters, but the degree to which they do so will be decided by the linebacking corps; that's where the two starters are lost, and while there's tons of upperclassman depth, they actually have very little experience. The team should be much better, but won't gain enough ground to avoid a losing season; I do, however, give them a shot at topping their best win total this decade, that being 3 in 2001.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-4 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
7. Temple
Temple may have been the worst team in the country last year, finishing third-to-last in defense and dead last on offense. The offense should be better, returning 8 starters, and returning QB Alex DiMichele should improve greatly over a year that saw decent peripherals, but a pretty bad 10/12 TD/INT ratio. He'll be helped by an improved WR corps, which includes junior Travis Shelton, who, while only playing 6 games, led the nation with 196.7 all-purpose yards per game; he could have a similar effect on the MAC as his cousin, Devin Hester, does in the NFL. The running game should also be much better, as the offensive line returns five players that were essentially starters last year, and the Owls gain talented JuCo transfer Marcellous Grigsby. Things also look better on defense. The team moves some linebackers to the defensive front, and the linebacking corps itself is helped by three transfers: Tommie Weatherspoon (JuCo), Lamar McPherson (Syracuse), and Wallace Bates (Oregon State). The secondary also returns some decent experience. While the Owls should be much better, again, they were so bad last year that they likely won't benefit much. On the plus side, they do get Buffalo at home, and do play Army out of conference, but it'll take some luck for them to win anything past that.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan
An offense that was below-average but lucky should receive a shot in the arm with the return of QB Tim Hiller from injury; as a freshman in 2005, Hiller threw for 1334 yards and a 20/3 TD/INT ratio on 65% passing in part-time duty. He'll throw to what should be an improved WR corps, as pretty much everyone returns, and the unit adds high-caliber JuCo Schneider Julien. Mark Bonds looks to, and probably will, repeat his 1000 yard junior season, and he'll do so behind a very experienced and very deep offensive line. The Broncos had an elite level defense last year (#11), mostly on the strength of their #5 overall run defense. They may not repeat that finish; while the defensive line is strong, the linebackers are the biggest question mark on the team. OLB Ameer Ismail leaves after leading the nation with 17 sacks, but the unit does return junior Dustin Duclo, who was actually voted the defensive MVP. Even if the defense isn't as good against the run, Western Michigan should have one of the top secondaries in the nation, and the best of any non-BCS team. They return all four starters from a unit that led the NCAA in interceptions, led by all-MAC CB Londen Fryar (Irving's son.) The linebacking unit is a concern, but both the elite secondary and WMU's dominance against the run last year afford them some drop-off. This team looks like the class of the MAC, and while winning their OOC games at West Virginia, Missouri, or Iowa is a bit much, this should be a big year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-10 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
2. Central Michigan
QB Dan LeFevour was forced into action on the second play of 2006, and was an absolute revelation as a freshman, throwing for 3031 yards and a 26/10 ratio on 63.7% passing, and leading the Chippewas to a 10-3 year. While he may not match those numbers, he should have another very good year, especially with all-MAC WR Bryan Anderson to throw to. The offensive line may take a step back after losing two NFL draft picks, but the unit should still be solid enough to open up holes for a very talented RB unit, led by returning starter Ontario Sneed and Notre Dame transfer Justin Hoskins. The defense was mediocre last season, but things should improve, or at least stay steady. On the negative side, CMU loses both starting DEs, including NFL 2nd-round pick Dan Bazuin. However, the run defense should still be well off, as the Chippewas return likely the best LB duo in the conference, in all-MAC MLB Red Keith and 2nd team all-MAC OLB Ike Brown. The secondary returns three starters from a young unit, and should also improve. It looks like another good year for Central Michigan. Changing coaches, losing some star players, and getting both Kent State and WMU on the road means that last year's 10 wins is probably unreachable, but bowl eligibility should be easily attainable.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
3. Toledo
Last year, Toledo was a disappointing veteran team, and sophomore QB Aaron Opelt looks to lead a revitalized offense. Opelt won a three-quarterback derby and was a part-time starter last year, and should improve upon what was an absolutely mediocre year from the position, especially for a Tom Astutz offense. The offensive line should greatly improve, led by two-time all-MAC tackle John Greco, and that could lead to an even bigger year from senior back Jalen Parmele, who ran for 1131 and 8 touchdowns last year. The defense should also improve; each unit loses only one starter, and last year's D allowed about a touchdown more than yardage would project. Toledo should be a contender in the West, and they have a similar outlook to Bowling Green: a return to bowl eligibility led by a rebound by the offense.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-7 conference wins
4. Northern Illinois
NIU met their 7-5 projection last year out of some weird cosmic coincidence - the offense scored much less points than it deserved to, but the defense didn't give up as many as it should've. The offense may not regress in scoring, but in may in performance, solely due to the loss of RB Garrett Wolfe, who was one of the most productive backs in NCAA history. The Huskies will likely have another 1000-yard rusher, purely due to system and talent, but they likely won't have another 1928-yard rusher like Wolfe was last year. Junior QB Dan Nicholson takes over after being a productive spot starter, and he has a very good receiving corps to throw to, led by Britt Davis and Marcus Perez. The offensive line should remain solid with three returning starters, and again, there's the talent at running back to have another productive year. The defense should take a few steps back, from more than just regression to the mean. Four of the front seven return, led by all-MAC DE Larry English, but the secondary is very much a question mark, with junior CB Bradley Pruitt the one returning starter. NIU's still an above-average team in the MAC, and having Southern Illinois and Idaho out of conference gives them a very good shot to have another winning year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 2-6 conference wins
5. Ball State
Sophomore QB Nate Davis had an outstanding debut, throwing for 1975 and 18/8 on 61.2% passing. He should at least extrapolate those numbers out to a full season, and should be one of the conference's best QBs. He'll also return his top two targets, 2nd team all-MAC WR Dante Love, and honorable mention all-MAC TE Darius Hill. The running game is a bit more of a question mark, although things should improve. There's not much returning talent at the running back position, but the position only averaged 3 yards per carry last season, and will be behind a veteran offensive line. The defense was one of the worst in the nation last year, but should at least be somewhat improved. Seven starters return, and no level of the defense suffers huge amounts of losses, but there don't seem to be any individual players to get excited about. The team should be better, if not live up to last year's 5-7 record. Still, if the defense improves to about an average level of play, the Cardinals have enough to pull the upsets they need to get bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Eastern Michigan
The Eagles didn't quite deserve to be 1-11, but they were in fact a very bad team last year. The offense was near the bottom of the barrel, and the glaring reason for that is the running game. When your top two rushers are the two quarterbacks that split playing time last year, it hasn't been a good season. Although I could find no news on who the starting QB is (not a good sign), I assume it's sophomore Andy Schmitt, who had a good completion percentage but a horrible 2/6 TD/INT ratio. The offensive line is fairly experienced, so I expect that to facilitate some better production, especially from the running backs. The defense should also be improved from a dismal year, as they return 9 starters. The entire secondary comes back, but the strongest unit may be linebacker, where tackling machine Daniel Holtzclaw returns. EMU should be a much improved team, as 16 returning starters would indicate, but they may not see much of a move up the rankings. They don't play Temple or Buffalo from the West and have only three MAC home games. Although anything's possible with the MAC's parity, this should be a long year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
MAC East:
1. Ohio (#85 overall - AT: #90, LN: #85, SN: #66, ST: #100)
2. Miami of Ohio (#86t overall - AT: #97, LN: #94, SN: #58, ST: #93)
3. Kent State (#88 overall - AT: #88, LN: #73, SN: #109, ST: #78)
4. Bowling Green (#93t overall - AT: #94, LN: #106, SN: #67, ST: #95)
5. Akron (#100 overall - AT: #101, LN: #86, SN: #96, ST: #103)
6. Temple (#112t overall - AT: #115, LN: #118, SN: #95, ST: #116)
7. Buffalo (#118 overall - AT: #118, LN: #116, SN: #118, ST: #115)
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan (#59 overall - AT: #68, LN: #62, SN: #62, ST: #54)
2. Central Michigan (#70 overall - AT: #59, LN: #54, SN: #90, ST: #80)
3. Toledo (#74t overall - AT: #81, LN: #88, SN: #68, ST: #60)
4. Ball State (#91 overall - AT: #93, LN: #101, SN: #64, ST: #96)
5. Northern Illinois (#92 overall - AT: #96, LN: #105, SN: #91, ST: #66)
6. Eastern Michigan (#115 overall - AT: #116, LN: #115, SN: #116, ST: #108)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
MAC East:
1. Kent State
Kent State was a pretty good team last year that deserved to be a game or two over .500, but suffered from an unlucky offense and bad luck in general. Starting QB Julian Edelman and starting RB Eugene Jarvis both return, and both should be much improved from mediocre 2006 campaigns. A stronger offensive line, returning four starters from last year and one from '05, helps immensely. A pretty good defense should be one of the MAC's best, as eight starters return. The secondary may be a weakness though, as only two starters return and the depth is somewhat shaky. While Kent isn't a runaway favorite in the East, they're solidly the best team; between last year's bad luck and returning experience, the Golden Flashes should get into their first bowl since 1972.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-7 conference wins
2. Bowling Green
After a down year, the Bowling Green offense should be up and running again this year, returning 7 starters. Highly-talented junior QB Anthony Turner returns after a promising season, and he'll be protected by a strong offensive line, led by all-MAC center Kory Lichtensteiger. The running game should also be much improved after some injury struggles last year, as every RB of note returns, and the Falcons add JuCo transfer Eric Ransom. The defense was decent but unlucky last year, and the only real question is along the defensive line. There's some returning experience, but starting TE Sean O'Drobinak was actually moved to DT. Defensive MVP Erique Dozier returns at middle linebacker, and the secondary should be very much improved, returning all four starters from what was a young unit last season. While the Falcons won't reach the heights of some of their seasons in the early decade, they should have a much improved record and make it back to a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Miami of Ohio
The RedHawks offense should improve, especially in the running game, where senior Brandon Murphy should greatly improve over a lackluster, injury-filled 2006, and where the team adds very talented recruit Thomas Merriweather. The 2.8 yards per carry of last year should also improve thanks to a much better offensive line, where essentially every starter returns, and Maryland transfer Zachary Marshall is also brought in. Senior QB Mike Kokal had a fine if unnotable campaign last season in his debut as a starter, and his numbers should improve despite heavy losses in the receiving corps. Last year's average defense should be around the same level, if not slightly improved. There's losses in every unit, but also good experience, led by the return of top CB Jerrid Gaines. Miami should have noticeable improvement over last year's 2-10 record. Bowl eligibility is somewhat of a 50/50 proposition, especially since the RedHawks only play 7 conference games, but getting both BGSU and Akron at home, as well as only Ball State from the West, helps.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
4. Ohio
The offense was pretty bad last year, but managed to score about a touchdown more than their yardage would suggest; while the good news is that the offense should be improved, even with only five returning starters, the bad news is that their scoring will probably still go down. At the very least, 4 of the 5 starters returning will benefit the running game, which is the Bobcats' bread and butter. Senior RB Kalvin McRae should repeat his excellent season last year behind an experienced offensive line. New QB and ex-Illinois starter Brad Bower should improve on last year's mediocre numbers at the position, although he has a fairly awful 1/7 TD/INT ratio in spot duty last season. A pretty good defense last year could move in either direction - while three of four starters return for both the defensive line and secondary, no linebackers return with any previous starts at the position. Still, this is overall a solid team, even if they shouldn't match last year's 9 wins. With a weaker OOC schedule than many of its peers, Ohio has a very good shot at repeating as a bowl eligible team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Akron
Akron had a surprisingly poor offense last year with now-departed QB Luke Getsy, and things are a question mark for 2007. Very talented RB Dennis Kennedy returns, as does pretty much every WR from a very good group, but it remains to be seen if their talent will be facilitated. New QB Carlton Jackson has the entirety of the experience at the position, going 1 for 1 for 2 yards last season, and only left tackle Chris Kemme returns along the offensive line. Things are somewhat more optimistic and definitely more definite on the defense, where essentially 9 starters return. Their top two defensive linemen depart, so that unit is somewhat of a question mark, but last year's starters return everywhere but strong safety, where 2005 starter Chevin Pace comes back. Also, cornerback Reggie Corner has a very appropriate name. Akron's pretty easily the weak sister among the top 5 MAC East teams, but they have some winnable games against lower-tier BCS schools, and combined with the parity in the conference, this is another team that could easily make a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
6. Buffalo
Buffalo was a very bad team on both sides of the ball last year, but with 9 starters returning on each side of the ball, things are looking up. QB Drew Willy returns after a decent year, and should benefit from most of the WR depth returning. The offensive line returns four starters and is very experienced, which could lead to sophomore RB James Starks, who was 2nd team all-MAC last season, having a breakout year. Starks's health is paramount, however, as most of the RB depth has graduated. The defense should improve, returning 9 starters, but the degree to which they do so will be decided by the linebacking corps; that's where the two starters are lost, and while there's tons of upperclassman depth, they actually have very little experience. The team should be much better, but won't gain enough ground to avoid a losing season; I do, however, give them a shot at topping their best win total this decade, that being 3 in 2001.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-4 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
7. Temple
Temple may have been the worst team in the country last year, finishing third-to-last in defense and dead last on offense. The offense should be better, returning 8 starters, and returning QB Alex DiMichele should improve greatly over a year that saw decent peripherals, but a pretty bad 10/12 TD/INT ratio. He'll be helped by an improved WR corps, which includes junior Travis Shelton, who, while only playing 6 games, led the nation with 196.7 all-purpose yards per game; he could have a similar effect on the MAC as his cousin, Devin Hester, does in the NFL. The running game should also be much better, as the offensive line returns five players that were essentially starters last year, and the Owls gain talented JuCo transfer Marcellous Grigsby. Things also look better on defense. The team moves some linebackers to the defensive front, and the linebacking corps itself is helped by three transfers: Tommie Weatherspoon (JuCo), Lamar McPherson (Syracuse), and Wallace Bates (Oregon State). The secondary also returns some decent experience. While the Owls should be much better, again, they were so bad last year that they likely won't benefit much. On the plus side, they do get Buffalo at home, and do play Army out of conference, but it'll take some luck for them to win anything past that.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan
An offense that was below-average but lucky should receive a shot in the arm with the return of QB Tim Hiller from injury; as a freshman in 2005, Hiller threw for 1334 yards and a 20/3 TD/INT ratio on 65% passing in part-time duty. He'll throw to what should be an improved WR corps, as pretty much everyone returns, and the unit adds high-caliber JuCo Schneider Julien. Mark Bonds looks to, and probably will, repeat his 1000 yard junior season, and he'll do so behind a very experienced and very deep offensive line. The Broncos had an elite level defense last year (#11), mostly on the strength of their #5 overall run defense. They may not repeat that finish; while the defensive line is strong, the linebackers are the biggest question mark on the team. OLB Ameer Ismail leaves after leading the nation with 17 sacks, but the unit does return junior Dustin Duclo, who was actually voted the defensive MVP. Even if the defense isn't as good against the run, Western Michigan should have one of the top secondaries in the nation, and the best of any non-BCS team. They return all four starters from a unit that led the NCAA in interceptions, led by all-MAC CB Londen Fryar (Irving's son.) The linebacking unit is a concern, but both the elite secondary and WMU's dominance against the run last year afford them some drop-off. This team looks like the class of the MAC, and while winning their OOC games at West Virginia, Missouri, or Iowa is a bit much, this should be a big year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-10 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
2. Central Michigan
QB Dan LeFevour was forced into action on the second play of 2006, and was an absolute revelation as a freshman, throwing for 3031 yards and a 26/10 ratio on 63.7% passing, and leading the Chippewas to a 10-3 year. While he may not match those numbers, he should have another very good year, especially with all-MAC WR Bryan Anderson to throw to. The offensive line may take a step back after losing two NFL draft picks, but the unit should still be solid enough to open up holes for a very talented RB unit, led by returning starter Ontario Sneed and Notre Dame transfer Justin Hoskins. The defense was mediocre last season, but things should improve, or at least stay steady. On the negative side, CMU loses both starting DEs, including NFL 2nd-round pick Dan Bazuin. However, the run defense should still be well off, as the Chippewas return likely the best LB duo in the conference, in all-MAC MLB Red Keith and 2nd team all-MAC OLB Ike Brown. The secondary returns three starters from a young unit, and should also improve. It looks like another good year for Central Michigan. Changing coaches, losing some star players, and getting both Kent State and WMU on the road means that last year's 10 wins is probably unreachable, but bowl eligibility should be easily attainable.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
3. Toledo
Last year, Toledo was a disappointing veteran team, and sophomore QB Aaron Opelt looks to lead a revitalized offense. Opelt won a three-quarterback derby and was a part-time starter last year, and should improve upon what was an absolutely mediocre year from the position, especially for a Tom Astutz offense. The offensive line should greatly improve, led by two-time all-MAC tackle John Greco, and that could lead to an even bigger year from senior back Jalen Parmele, who ran for 1131 and 8 touchdowns last year. The defense should also improve; each unit loses only one starter, and last year's D allowed about a touchdown more than yardage would project. Toledo should be a contender in the West, and they have a similar outlook to Bowling Green: a return to bowl eligibility led by a rebound by the offense.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-7 conference wins
4. Northern Illinois
NIU met their 7-5 projection last year out of some weird cosmic coincidence - the offense scored much less points than it deserved to, but the defense didn't give up as many as it should've. The offense may not regress in scoring, but in may in performance, solely due to the loss of RB Garrett Wolfe, who was one of the most productive backs in NCAA history. The Huskies will likely have another 1000-yard rusher, purely due to system and talent, but they likely won't have another 1928-yard rusher like Wolfe was last year. Junior QB Dan Nicholson takes over after being a productive spot starter, and he has a very good receiving corps to throw to, led by Britt Davis and Marcus Perez. The offensive line should remain solid with three returning starters, and again, there's the talent at running back to have another productive year. The defense should take a few steps back, from more than just regression to the mean. Four of the front seven return, led by all-MAC DE Larry English, but the secondary is very much a question mark, with junior CB Bradley Pruitt the one returning starter. NIU's still an above-average team in the MAC, and having Southern Illinois and Idaho out of conference gives them a very good shot to have another winning year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 2-6 conference wins
5. Ball State
Sophomore QB Nate Davis had an outstanding debut, throwing for 1975 and 18/8 on 61.2% passing. He should at least extrapolate those numbers out to a full season, and should be one of the conference's best QBs. He'll also return his top two targets, 2nd team all-MAC WR Dante Love, and honorable mention all-MAC TE Darius Hill. The running game is a bit more of a question mark, although things should improve. There's not much returning talent at the running back position, but the position only averaged 3 yards per carry last season, and will be behind a veteran offensive line. The defense was one of the worst in the nation last year, but should at least be somewhat improved. Seven starters return, and no level of the defense suffers huge amounts of losses, but there don't seem to be any individual players to get excited about. The team should be better, if not live up to last year's 5-7 record. Still, if the defense improves to about an average level of play, the Cardinals have enough to pull the upsets they need to get bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Eastern Michigan
The Eagles didn't quite deserve to be 1-11, but they were in fact a very bad team last year. The offense was near the bottom of the barrel, and the glaring reason for that is the running game. When your top two rushers are the two quarterbacks that split playing time last year, it hasn't been a good season. Although I could find no news on who the starting QB is (not a good sign), I assume it's sophomore Andy Schmitt, who had a good completion percentage but a horrible 2/6 TD/INT ratio. The offensive line is fairly experienced, so I expect that to facilitate some better production, especially from the running backs. The defense should also be improved from a dismal year, as they return 9 starters. The entire secondary comes back, but the strongest unit may be linebacker, where tackling machine Daniel Holtzclaw returns. EMU should be a much improved team, as 16 returning starters would indicate, but they may not see much of a move up the rankings. They don't play Temple or Buffalo from the West and have only three MAC home games. Although anything's possible with the MAC's parity, this should be a long year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
