THE CONSENSUS:
MAC East:
1. Ohio (#85 overall - AT: #90, LN: #85, SN: #66, ST: #100)
2. Miami of Ohio (#86t overall - AT: #97, LN: #94, SN: #58, ST: #93)
3. Kent State (#88 overall - AT: #88, LN: #73, SN: #109, ST: #78)
4. Bowling Green (#93t overall - AT: #94, LN: #106, SN: #67, ST: #95)
5. Akron (#100 overall - AT: #101, LN: #86, SN: #96, ST: #103)
6. Temple (#112t overall - AT: #115, LN: #118, SN: #95, ST: #116)
7. Buffalo (#118 overall - AT: #118, LN: #116, SN: #118, ST: #115)
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan (#59 overall - AT: #68, LN: #62, SN: #62, ST: #54)
2. Central Michigan (#70 overall - AT: #59, LN: #54, SN: #90, ST: #80)
3. Toledo (#74t overall - AT: #81, LN: #88, SN: #68, ST: #60)
4. Ball State (#91 overall - AT: #93, LN: #101, SN: #64, ST: #96)
5. Northern Illinois (#92 overall - AT: #96, LN: #105, SN: #91, ST: #66)
6. Eastern Michigan (#115 overall - AT: #116, LN: #115, SN: #116, ST: #108)
THE OFFICIAL TFFE RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
MAC East:
1. Kent State
Kent State was a pretty good team last year that deserved to be a game or two over .500, but suffered from an unlucky offense and bad luck in general. Starting QB Julian Edelman and starting RB Eugene Jarvis both return, and both should be much improved from mediocre 2006 campaigns. A stronger offensive line, returning four starters from last year and one from '05, helps immensely. A pretty good defense should be one of the MAC's best, as eight starters return. The secondary may be a weakness though, as only two starters return and the depth is somewhat shaky. While Kent isn't a runaway favorite in the East, they're solidly the best team; between last year's bad luck and returning experience, the Golden Flashes should get into their first bowl since 1972.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-7 conference wins
2. Bowling Green
After a down year, the Bowling Green offense should be up and running again this year, returning 7 starters. Highly-talented junior QB Anthony Turner returns after a promising season, and he'll be protected by a strong offensive line, led by all-MAC center Kory Lichtensteiger. The running game should also be much improved after some injury struggles last year, as every RB of note returns, and the Falcons add JuCo transfer Eric Ransom. The defense was decent but unlucky last year, and the only real question is along the defensive line. There's some returning experience, but starting TE Sean O'Drobinak was actually moved to DT. Defensive MVP Erique Dozier returns at middle linebacker, and the secondary should be very much improved, returning all four starters from what was a young unit last season. While the Falcons won't reach the heights of some of their seasons in the early decade, they should have a much improved record and make it back to a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
3. Miami of Ohio
The RedHawks offense should improve, especially in the running game, where senior Brandon Murphy should greatly improve over a lackluster, injury-filled 2006, and where the team adds very talented recruit Thomas Merriweather. The 2.8 yards per carry of last year should also improve thanks to a much better offensive line, where essentially every starter returns, and Maryland transfer Zachary Marshall is also brought in. Senior QB Mike Kokal had a fine if unnotable campaign last season in his debut as a starter, and his numbers should improve despite heavy losses in the receiving corps. Last year's average defense should be around the same level, if not slightly improved. There's losses in every unit, but also good experience, led by the return of top CB Jerrid Gaines. Miami should have noticeable improvement over last year's 2-10 record. Bowl eligibility is somewhat of a 50/50 proposition, especially since the RedHawks only play 7 conference games, but getting both BGSU and Akron at home, as well as only Ball State from the West, helps.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
4. Ohio
The offense was pretty bad last year, but managed to score about a touchdown more than their yardage would suggest; while the good news is that the offense should be improved, even with only five returning starters, the bad news is that their scoring will probably still go down. At the very least, 4 of the 5 starters returning will benefit the running game, which is the Bobcats' bread and butter. Senior RB Kalvin McRae should repeat his excellent season last year behind an experienced offensive line. New QB and ex-Illinois starter Brad Bower should improve on last year's mediocre numbers at the position, although he has a fairly awful 1/7 TD/INT ratio in spot duty last season. A pretty good defense last year could move in either direction - while three of four starters return for both the defensive line and secondary, no linebackers return with any previous starts at the position. Still, this is overall a solid team, even if they shouldn't match last year's 9 wins. With a weaker OOC schedule than many of its peers, Ohio has a very good shot at repeating as a bowl eligible team.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Akron
Akron had a surprisingly poor offense last year with now-departed QB Luke Getsy, and things are a question mark for 2007. Very talented RB Dennis Kennedy returns, as does pretty much every WR from a very good group, but it remains to be seen if their talent will be facilitated. New QB Carlton Jackson has the entirety of the experience at the position, going 1 for 1 for 2 yards last season, and only left tackle Chris Kemme returns along the offensive line. Things are somewhat more optimistic and definitely more definite on the defense, where essentially 9 starters return. Their top two defensive linemen depart, so that unit is somewhat of a question mark, but last year's starters return everywhere but strong safety, where 2005 starter Chevin Pace comes back. Also, cornerback Reggie Corner has a very appropriate name. Akron's pretty easily the weak sister among the top 5 MAC East teams, but they have some winnable games against lower-tier BCS schools, and combined with the parity in the conference, this is another team that could easily make a bowl.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
6. Buffalo
Buffalo was a very bad team on both sides of the ball last year, but with 9 starters returning on each side of the ball, things are looking up. QB Drew Willy returns after a decent year, and should benefit from most of the WR depth returning. The offensive line returns four starters and is very experienced, which could lead to sophomore RB James Starks, who was 2nd team all-MAC last season, having a breakout year. Starks's health is paramount, however, as most of the RB depth has graduated. The defense should improve, returning 9 starters, but the degree to which they do so will be decided by the linebacking corps; that's where the two starters are lost, and while there's tons of upperclassman depth, they actually have very little experience. The team should be much better, but won't gain enough ground to avoid a losing season; I do, however, give them a shot at topping their best win total this decade, that being 3 in 2001.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-4 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
7. Temple
Temple may have been the worst team in the country last year, finishing third-to-last in defense and dead last on offense. The offense should be better, returning 8 starters, and returning QB Alex DiMichele should improve greatly over a year that saw decent peripherals, but a pretty bad 10/12 TD/INT ratio. He'll be helped by an improved WR corps, which includes junior Travis Shelton, who, while only playing 6 games, led the nation with 196.7 all-purpose yards per game; he could have a similar effect on the MAC as his cousin, Devin Hester, does in the NFL. The running game should also be much better, as the offensive line returns five players that were essentially starters last year, and the Owls gain talented JuCo transfer Marcellous Grigsby. Things also look better on defense. The team moves some linebackers to the defensive front, and the linebacking corps itself is helped by three transfers: Tommie Weatherspoon (JuCo), Lamar McPherson (Syracuse), and Wallace Bates (Oregon State). The secondary also returns some decent experience. While the Owls should be much better, again, they were so bad last year that they likely won't benefit much. On the plus side, they do get Buffalo at home, and do play Army out of conference, but it'll take some luck for them to win anything past that.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
MAC West:
1. Western Michigan
An offense that was below-average but lucky should receive a shot in the arm with the return of QB Tim Hiller from injury; as a freshman in 2005, Hiller threw for 1334 yards and a 20/3 TD/INT ratio on 65% passing in part-time duty. He'll throw to what should be an improved WR corps, as pretty much everyone returns, and the unit adds high-caliber JuCo Schneider Julien. Mark Bonds looks to, and probably will, repeat his 1000 yard junior season, and he'll do so behind a very experienced and very deep offensive line. The Broncos had an elite level defense last year (#11), mostly on the strength of their #5 overall run defense. They may not repeat that finish; while the defensive line is strong, the linebackers are the biggest question mark on the team. OLB Ameer Ismail leaves after leading the nation with 17 sacks, but the unit does return junior Dustin Duclo, who was actually voted the defensive MVP. Even if the defense isn't as good against the run, Western Michigan should have one of the top secondaries in the nation, and the best of any non-BCS team. They return all four starters from a unit that led the NCAA in interceptions, led by all-MAC CB Londen Fryar (Irving's son.) The linebacking unit is a concern, but both the elite secondary and WMU's dominance against the run last year afford them some drop-off. This team looks like the class of the MAC, and while winning their OOC games at West Virginia, Missouri, or Iowa is a bit much, this should be a big year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-10 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
2. Central Michigan
QB Dan LeFevour was forced into action on the second play of 2006, and was an absolute revelation as a freshman, throwing for 3031 yards and a 26/10 ratio on 63.7% passing, and leading the Chippewas to a 10-3 year. While he may not match those numbers, he should have another very good year, especially with all-MAC WR Bryan Anderson to throw to. The offensive line may take a step back after losing two NFL draft picks, but the unit should still be solid enough to open up holes for a very talented RB unit, led by returning starter Ontario Sneed and Notre Dame transfer Justin Hoskins. The defense was mediocre last season, but things should improve, or at least stay steady. On the negative side, CMU loses both starting DEs, including NFL 2nd-round pick Dan Bazuin. However, the run defense should still be well off, as the Chippewas return likely the best LB duo in the conference, in all-MAC MLB Red Keith and 2nd team all-MAC OLB Ike Brown. The secondary returns three starters from a young unit, and should also improve. It looks like another good year for Central Michigan. Changing coaches, losing some star players, and getting both Kent State and WMU on the road means that last year's 10 wins is probably unreachable, but bowl eligibility should be easily attainable.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
3. Toledo
Last year, Toledo was a disappointing veteran team, and sophomore QB Aaron Opelt looks to lead a revitalized offense. Opelt won a three-quarterback derby and was a part-time starter last year, and should improve upon what was an absolutely mediocre year from the position, especially for a Tom Astutz offense. The offensive line should greatly improve, led by two-time all-MAC tackle John Greco, and that could lead to an even bigger year from senior back Jalen Parmele, who ran for 1131 and 8 touchdowns last year. The defense should also improve; each unit loses only one starter, and last year's D allowed about a touchdown more than yardage would project. Toledo should be a contender in the West, and they have a similar outlook to Bowling Green: a return to bowl eligibility led by a rebound by the offense.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-7 conference wins
4. Northern Illinois
NIU met their 7-5 projection last year out of some weird cosmic coincidence - the offense scored much less points than it deserved to, but the defense didn't give up as many as it should've. The offense may not regress in scoring, but in may in performance, solely due to the loss of RB Garrett Wolfe, who was one of the most productive backs in NCAA history. The Huskies will likely have another 1000-yard rusher, purely due to system and talent, but they likely won't have another 1928-yard rusher like Wolfe was last year. Junior QB Dan Nicholson takes over after being a productive spot starter, and he has a very good receiving corps to throw to, led by Britt Davis and Marcus Perez. The offensive line should remain solid with three returning starters, and again, there's the talent at running back to have another productive year. The defense should take a few steps back, from more than just regression to the mean. Four of the front seven return, led by all-MAC DE Larry English, but the secondary is very much a question mark, with junior CB Bradley Pruitt the one returning starter. NIU's still an above-average team in the MAC, and having Southern Illinois and Idaho out of conference gives them a very good shot to have another winning year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 2-6 conference wins
5. Ball State
Sophomore QB Nate Davis had an outstanding debut, throwing for 1975 and 18/8 on 61.2% passing. He should at least extrapolate those numbers out to a full season, and should be one of the conference's best QBs. He'll also return his top two targets, 2nd team all-MAC WR Dante Love, and honorable mention all-MAC TE Darius Hill. The running game is a bit more of a question mark, although things should improve. There's not much returning talent at the running back position, but the position only averaged 3 yards per carry last season, and will be behind a veteran offensive line. The defense was one of the worst in the nation last year, but should at least be somewhat improved. Seven starters return, and no level of the defense suffers huge amounts of losses, but there don't seem to be any individual players to get excited about. The team should be better, if not live up to last year's 5-7 record. Still, if the defense improves to about an average level of play, the Cardinals have enough to pull the upsets they need to get bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Eastern Michigan
The Eagles didn't quite deserve to be 1-11, but they were in fact a very bad team last year. The offense was near the bottom of the barrel, and the glaring reason for that is the running game. When your top two rushers are the two quarterbacks that split playing time last year, it hasn't been a good season. Although I could find no news on who the starting QB is (not a good sign), I assume it's sophomore Andy Schmitt, who had a good completion percentage but a horrible 2/6 TD/INT ratio. The offensive line is fairly experienced, so I expect that to facilitate some better production, especially from the running backs. The defense should also be improved from a dismal year, as they return 9 starters. The entire secondary comes back, but the strongest unit may be linebacker, where tackling machine Daniel Holtzclaw returns. EMU should be a much improved team, as 16 returning starters would indicate, but they may not see much of a move up the rankings. They don't play Temple or Buffalo from the West and have only three MAC home games. Although anything's possible with the MAC's parity, this should be a long year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
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