Turns out that I may have just cut this a bit too close, so the mid-major previews are going to be more perfunctory in the write-ups. I'll still give the gist, though. Hopefully I'll knock these out by the end of Tuesday and be able to preview Thursday and Friday's games either that night or Wednesday; then my top 25, if it's not a top 119, should be up Wednesday or Thursday. HERE WE GO.
THE CONSENSUS:
1. Hawaii (#22 overall - AT: #19, LN: #19, SN: #32, SS: --, ST: #23)
2. Boise State (#34 overall - AT: #35, LN: #29, SN: #22, SS: #25, ST: #44)
3. San Jose State (#65t overall - AT: #72, LN: #63, SN: #73, SS: --, ST: #64)
4. Fresno State (#71 overall - AT: #89, LN: #61, SN: #65, SS: --, ST: #73)
5. Nevada (#78 overall - AT: #84, LN: #84, SN: #63, SS: --, ST: #76)
6. New Mexico State (#86t overall - AT: #103, LN: #95, SN: #76, SS: --, ST: #68)
7. Louisiana Tech (#112t overall - AT: #108, LN: #113, SN: #112, SS: --, ST: #111)
8. Idaho (#114 overall - AT: #113, LN: #110, SN: #115, SS: --, ST: #110)
9. Utah State (#117 overall - AT: #117, LN: #117, SN: #117, SS: --, ST: #113)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. Hawaii
And it's close. The defense is the question mark by reasons other than default, as 8 starters return from a below average unit, and after great strides were made under DC Jerry Glanville, he's left to become head coach at Portland State. The offense should continue to put up insane numbers, as they outgained #2 Louisville by almost 75 yards per game last year. Colt Brennan may not top last year's numbers, but for posterity and general holy shitness, here are last year's numbers: 5549 yards, 72.6% completion, 58/12 TD/INT ratio. The obvious big test is Boise on 11/22, which is in Honolulu, and there's a trap game the Friday before at Nevada. And hopefully their 10/27 home game will be on TV, and it should be an insane shootout against New Mexico State.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Boise State
Boise was as well-rounded as any team in the nation last year, and even returning only 11 starters, I'm not counting the Broncos out. The BSU offense is always a well-oiled machine, and that should continue. Four starters return on the line, as does RB Ian Johnson and his NCAA-leading 25 rushing TDs. The defense's strength should be the secondary, returning three starters. That's as nice as place as there can be to return starters when you'll be facing Hawaii and NMSU. Boise'll take a step back, but it'll be taking a step back from the best team in school history. With Southern Miss at home the only real out of conference test, their season-ending game at Hawaii could be between two undefeated teams.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
3. New Mexico State
Hawaii-lite. With the amount of yardage NMSU piled up (#3 in the nation), they easily could've scored 38 or so per game instead of 31. And watch out, they return everyone on offense but their starting left guard. QB Chase Holbrook, in one season, set an NCAA record for passing yards by a sophomore, and is also already more than halfway to the all-time NMSU career passing record. WR Chris Williams led the NCAA in receiving last year, and might do it again. The defense returns 7 starters and should continue to improve under DC Woody Widenhofer, who helped put together the "Steel Curtain" defense. Yes, the one way back when. NMSU probably won't win their OOC game at Auburn, and having both Hawaii and Boise on the road probably prevents them from a WAC title, but the Aggies should easily be bowl eligible. Unless Holbrook goes down, as everyone else at QB is a freshman, then they're screwed.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-10 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
4. San Jose State
A close one between SJSU and Fresno, the Spartans have more experience, while Fresno has more talent. The offense was decent last year, and should remain at that level. Senior QB Adam Tafralis returns after a solid year, but the WR corps is very unproven after being gutted by graduation. Star RB Yonus Davis should also have a good year behind an improved offensive line. The defense should improve over last year due to 8 returning starters, including LB Matt Castelo, who led the NCAA in tackles, and CB Dwight Lowery, who led the nation in interceptions. While tough OOC games against Arizona State and Kansas State will probably prevent SJSU from matching last year's 9 wins, this should be another positive year with easy bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
5. Fresno State
Well, last year was a disaster; while I've always felt Fresno was overrated, especially after the 2005 USC game, I didn't see THAT coming. It seems like a situation where the level of play almost has to improve given the talent. Returning most of the offensive line will help, although QB Tom Brandstater's bad line from last year didn't exactly inspire confidence. The RB unit should be solid, again due to the talent, but departed starter Dwayne Wright was last year's bright spot and should be tough to match. The defense was horribly disappointing last year, especially against the pass, and while only four starters return, some regression to the mean in terms of talent should level things out. Fresno should be much improved, but may still have a disappointing year - they have their usual hellish OOC schedule (Oregon, Kansas State, Texas A&M), and teams like NMSU and SJSU are no longer the gimmes they were in '05 and '04.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
6. Nevada
Nevada should be a decent team on both sides of the ball, but nothing too great. New QB Nick Graziano should be solid, but I doubt he'll match departed senior Jeff Rowe's numbers. Luckily for him, all of the returning starters on offense are receivers or on the line. The defense was a bit on the lucky side last year, but should continue to improve with 7 returning starters, led by all-WAC LB Ezra Butler. This is a rebuilding year for Wolf Pack, but they look like they'll manage bowl eligibility for a third straight year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 3-5 conference wins
7. Idaho
Despite yet another coaching change, Idaho looks like the best of the bunch among three teams that were horrible last year. The bright spot on offense is a very deep RB corps, returning Brian Flowers, Jayson Bird and Rolly Lumbala, all of whom have starting talent and will be running behind a solid offensive line. QB is a question mark, as redshirt freshman Nathan Enderle will be backed up by senior Brian Nooy, who's been pretty bad in limited action. Still, things can't be much worse than the departed Steve Wichman's 2006 numbers. The defense should be improved - new coach Robb Akey is a defensive mind, and all-WAC CB Stanley Franks is one of seven returning starters. Still, being improved from a very bad season last year is damning with faint praise. Idaho gets both Utah State and Louisiana Tech at home, so they're in the driver's seat to the race for seventh place. That's pretty much the only reason for optimism this season, unless the Vandals manage to hold USC under 70.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
8. Utah State
The Aggies return 8 starters on offense and everyone on defense, though who knows what that means when your team was one of the worst in the nation last year. You'd almost think the offense would have to get better, especially with the addition of ex-North Texas coach Darrell Dickey as coordinator, but I'm not so sure; QB Leon Jackson was dismal in split duty, and the leading returning rusher is senior Aaron Lesue, who in four starts managed an amazing 51 yards. Total. The defense has enough experience to not be embarrassing, but with that offense, it may not mean much. USU should win their home game against Louisiana Tech. Past that, things look much bleaker.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
9. Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech confronts the same conundrum as Utah State: is returning 10 of 11 starters on defense a good thing when that defense was the worst in the nation by almost 30 yards per game? Probably not, although the Bulldogs D may jump ahead of USU's. The offense was unlucky last year, but with the coaching change, that may not result in any real improvement this season. Things should at least remain steady though; there's depth at RB and on the offensive line, and senior Zac Champion returns after a season that was...better than some horrible QBs were. Louisiana Tech could surprise if the defense plays well, but "surprise" pretty much just means beating both Utah State and Idaho on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment