THE CONSENSUS:
1. TCU (#20 overall - AT: #25, LN: #15, SN: #20, SS: #23, ST: #25)
2. Brigham Young (#36 overall - AT: #36, LN: #44, SN: #25, SS: --, ST: #36)
3. Utah (#47 overall - AT: #47, LN: #45, SN: #59, SS: --, ST: #31)
4. New Mexico (#58 overall - AT: #63, LN: #72, SN: #49, SS: --, ST: #61)
5. Wyoming (#76 overall - AT: #76, LN: #69, SN: #72, SS: --, ST: #82)
6. Colorado State (#80 overall - AT: #79, LN: #83, SN: #82, SS: --, ST: #77)
7. Air Force (#96 overall - AT: #87, LN: #93, SN: #104, SS: --, ST: #89)
8. San Diego State (#98 overall - AT: #91, LN: #99, SN: #97, SS: --, ST: #94)
9. UNLV (#103 overall - AT: #102, LN: #102, SN: #114, SS: --, ST: #81)
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. TCU
TCU was a top-20 team on both sides of the ball, and while the offense may take a step back, the defense should carry them easily. In a minor surprise, redshirt freshman Andy Dalton beat out last year's backup Marcus Jackson for the starting QB slot. While he's talented, his performance will be the major question mark for the Horned Frogs, especially since the talent at WR takes a step down. Still, he'll have one of the best running backs in the conference to help him out in Aaron Brown, who had 5.2 yards per carry last season, and the offensive line should be solid. 9 starters return from last year's #4 defense, led by what's probably the best duo of DEs in the nation in seniors Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. Both earned all-MWC honors in both 2005 and 2006. TCU's offense may be shaky, but they can afford to be with what should one again be one of the nation's top defenses. They're not an invincible team in the conference, but they're easily the favorites, and should easily reach double-digit wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Brigham Young
Arizona State transfer Max Hall will take over at QB for what should be another high-powered passing attack. The Cougars return two starters at WR from last year, and get back sophomore Austin Collie, who was MWC freshman of the year in 2004 before leaving on a Mormon mission. He'll also be protected by one of the top offensive lines in the nation. The running game may take a step back, though, as star RB Curtis Brown departs. The defense, while returning seven starters, should regress performance-wise, as they allowed about a touchdown less than their yardage dictated in 2006. Still, their level of play should improve, as both the secondary and defensive line return three starters, and the LB corps has some experienced depth. It should be another good year for BYU, mostly on the backs of that offense. Getting both TCU and Utah at home means that the Cougars should once again have double-digit wins.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
3. Utah
A very good offense last year should be even better, with essentially ten starters returning. QB Brian Johnson, 2005's starter, is probably the best quarterback in the conference, even after redshirting last year due to injury. And if he's rusty, he should be helped out by a very experienced receiving corps. The running game should be much improved after a medicore year, as the Utes bring in high-talent JuCo transfer Matt Asiata to bolster an already talented stable of backs. Things should also be helped by one of the top o-lines in the conference. The defense should remain solid, but may have some problems in the secondary; while there's the experience to get by in the front seven, the loss of 2-time MWC defensive player of the year Eric Weddle, along with two other starting defensive backs, may leave the team vulnerable to the pass. Utah should be improved, but may wind up around last year's 7 or 8 wins again; they have tough OOC games against Oregon State, UCLA and Louisville, and have to play BYU and TCU on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
4. New Mexico
The Lobos return 18 starters, which means they should be much improved on both sides of the ball. Sophomore QB Donovan Porterie was decent in limited action last year, and he'll be helped by all-MWC RB Rodney Ferguson and all-MWC WR Travis Brown. The offensive line should remain steady, returning three starters. The defense should see some serious gains, as everyone's back except LB Quincy Black. And all the returning starters are upperclassmen, so this should be one of the more improved defenses in the country. There's a lot of parity in the conference, which leads to a pretty wide range of possibilities, but enough games are winnable where the improvements should lead UNM to an above-.500 season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-10 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
5. Colorado State
CSU's in much the same boat as New Mexico, returning 18 starters, and looking to be much improved on both sides of the ball. The offense gets a huge boost with the return from injury of senior RB Kyle Bell, who was one the conference's top backs in 2005. The passing game should also be much improved, as senior QB Caleb Hanie returns after a mediocre year in which he struggled with injuries. Injuries last year have also led to an offensive line that returns more experience than there's been in years. The linebacking corps should be the weakness of the defense, since the Rams return starters everywhere else, but the defense is packed with upperclassman depth. This, again, should be a much-improved team, but bowl-eligibility isn't a complete lock. Colorado, California, and Houston is a tough opening slate (although CSU may be able to exploit Colorado's inexperience), and the swing game against New Mexico is on the road.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 4-6 conference wins
6. Wyoming
Wyoming could've easily been 10-2, not 6-6 last year; the Cowboys has a stretch of four games (Virginia, Boise State, Air Force, Syracuse) where they lost by a touchdown or less. This was mostly due to a top-10 (yes, top-10) defense that was very unlucky with scoring. Unfortunately, only five starters return on that defense. The linebacking corps should be one of the conference's best, as all three starters return, and the secondary has enough returning talent to remain above-average, but the defensive line was absolutely gutted by graduation. The offensive line isn't much better off, returning only two starters, which are also the unit's only two upperclassmen. Things should still be more productive on offense, though, despite the line troubles; QB Karsten Sween should improve over a promising freshman year, and the Cowboys have a very talented 1-2 rushing attack in RBs Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore. Wyoming could still pull of bowl-eligibility, but it all depends on the play at the lines. If both lines come together fairly quickly, Wyoming could be the conference's surprise team; however, that's a big if.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-7 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
7. UNLV
UNLV played around their 2-10 record last year, but leaps should be made this season. QB Rocky Hinds disappointed in his first year after transferring from USC; however, he played the entire year with a torn ACL, so assuming he's at full health, he should be one of the most improved QBs in the nation. He'll be helped by sophomore WR Ryan Wolfe, who was a revelation last year, earning all-MWC and freshman All-American honors. The offensive line will be a test of system vs. talent, as only two starters return, but this is the third year of coach Mike Sanford's system. The defense should be much-improved. Only four of the front seven return, but the Rebels should be bolstered by talented transfers DT Thor Pili (Oregon via JuCo) and LB Jimmy Miller (Mississippi State). Only two starts return in the secondary, but stepping in at free safety will be senior Tony Cade, who was an elite recruit that originally signed with Oklahoma. With the improvements on defense, the path of UNLV's season essentially comes down to the improvement of both the line and Hinds. Either way, the Rebels should improve upon last year's 2-10 record, but if Hinds plays well, they could make a surprise run for bowl eligibility.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
8. San Diego State
SDSU was about as good (or bad) as their 3-9 record last year; at least the offense should improve. The offensive line should be much better, returning four starters, and that should help senior QB Kevin O'Connell improve over a mediocre junior campaign. Every running back returns from a talented, but disappointing, corps, so they should also be much-improved. The defense? Ehhhhh. Four starters return there, all along the front seven. The secondary may not be that bad for returning no starters, as there's some experience including Hawaii transfer Ray Bass, but things are still shaky. SDSU may improve on the whole, and while this is a talented enough team to pull off a few upsets, this is a rebuilding year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-5 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
9. Air Force
A hard team to get a hold of, mostly since new coach Troy Calhoun will be phasing out the wishbone for a more pass-based attack. This has normally resulted in disaster for the first few years, with the one exception being Rice last year. It's a shame too, since the Falcons return seniors at 9 positions on offense, including four-year starting QB Shaun Carney. The defense should at least improve slightly with 6 starters returning, as well as 2005 starting CB Carson Bird; the losses are spread out among the units so no one level of the defense is clearly hurt. If the offense takes, Air Force has five winnable home games and could easily get a road win for bowl eligibility. If it doesn't...well, look at what happened to Army.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-6 overall wins, 0-4 conference wins
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