THE CONSENSUS:
Big 12 North:
1. Nebraska (#18 overall - AT: #18, LN: #25, SN: #23, SS: #20, ST: #17)
2. Missouri (#24 overall - AT: #28, LN: #28, SN: #26, SS: #18, ST: #21)
3. Kansas State (#49 overall - AT: #46, LN: #55, SN: #46, SS: --, ST: #50)
4. Kansas (#53 overall - AT: #57, LN: #58, SN: #48, SS: --, ST: #59)
5. Colorado (#68t overall - AT: #61, LN: #74, SN: #80, SS: --, ST: #62)
6. Iowa State (#90 overall - AT: #70, LN: #90, SN: #88, SS: --, ST: #105)
Big 12 South:
1. Texas (#5 overall - AT: #2, LN: #5, SN: #6, SS: #8, ST: #8)
2. Oklahoma (#7 overall - AT: #7, LN: #10, SN: #13, SS: #7, ST: #3)
3. Texas A&M (#21 overall - AT: #23, LN: #18, SN: #35, SS: --, ST: #12)
4. Oklahoma State (#35 overall - AT: #30, LN: #42, SN: #38, SS: --, ST: #29)
5. Texas Tech (#42t overall - AT: #49, LN: #43, SN: #27, SS: --, ST: #49)
6. Baylor (#93 overall - AT: #85, LN: #75, SN: #98, SS: --, ST: #104)
OVERRATED: Nebraska. Somewhat. This was a hard one to pick, since the expectations are more or less in line with mine, but Nebraska's closer to Missouri and A&M, and is probably only second- or third-best out of the three.
UNDERRATED: Colorado. The final record probably won't reflect it due to the schedule, but the Buffaloes should be every bit the team Kansas or even KSU is.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
Big 12 North:
1. Missouri
I'm waffling back and forth, but I give the edge to Missouri as they're a more well-balanced team than Nebraska. I'll get into the defenses later, but since both teams will have high-powered offenses, might as well start there. The Tigers had an offense just outside the top 10 last year, and return more than enough talent to remain at that level. Junior QB Chase Daniel returns after an excellent first year as a starter (3527, 63.5%, 28/10), and he has two of the best tight ends in the country to throw to in all-Big 12 senior Martin Rucker and...all-Big 12 JUNIOR Chase Coffman. And hey, Missouri also returns their two starting WRs, Tommy Saunders and honorable mention all-Big 12 William Franklin. Starting RB Tony Temple also returns, and will be running behind a line that essentially returns four starters, as right guard Monte Wyrick started 7 games last year. Depth at right tackle is comparatively weak, but still, the offensive line should be good enough to allow things to happen. On defense, things are a different story. While the defense was above-average last year, only 5 starters return. The defensive line should be the strength of the D -- both starting DTs return, and junior Stryker Sulak, who was all-Big 12 as a freshman, will start at DE. Linebacker is very untested, although the group has potential. Starting MLB Brock Alexander returns, but past that there's very little experienced depth -- still, there's lots of talent, including projected 2006 starter Van Alexander, who returns from injury, and two top-tier freshmen in Michael Keck and Luke Lambert. The secondary, the strength of the defense last year, should be solid but see some regression - both starting CBs return, including honorable mention all-Big 12 Darnell Terrell, but the Tigers lose both starting safeties. Still, both projected starters are upperclassmen with some limited starting experience. Missouri's a very talented team, especially on offense, and has the schedule to have a big year -- they avoid Texas, and get Nebraska, Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. That leaves at Oklahoma as the one major underdog game, and while I don't think Missouri's at the level of team where they can pull off that upset and go undefeated, there's an outside, 2% or so chance. Still, either way, should be a good season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
2. Nebraska
Might as well address Missouri vs. Nebraska here -- both teams are in a similar situation, returning a lot from a high-powered offense, and bringing back only 5 starters on defense. However, while the two had similar scoring defense numbers, Nebraska was far luckier, allowing about 50 yards per game more than the other teams around their scoring level. So, while I think the Nebraska defense may be more improved, there are two problems:
1) I don't think that improvement will be enough to catch up with a Missouri defense that should at least stay stable, if not improve themselves.
2) The Nebraska defensive line is a bigger question mark than any individual unit on Missouri's D.
And the offenses are a wash, so with THAT out of the way, let's look at said offense, which was one of the best in the nation last year. At QB, Zac Taylor gives way to senior Arizona State transfer Sam Keller, who was a top-flight player as a starter with the Sun Devils. As such, there should be little dropoff from Taylor's 2006 line (3197, 59.6%, 26/8). And hey, while Nebraska loses starting TE Matt Herian, Keller will have two very good receivers to throw to in seniors Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify. At RB, Marlon Lucky heads up one of the deepest RB corps in the country; while Lucky's disappointed in his first two years, he has the talent to explode at any moment, and again, Nebraska has enough RB depth to kill a horse that is allergic to running back depth. And of course, the key to it all is the offensive line, where the Huskers return 4 starters (although only 3 are projected to start) -- and really, it's Nebraska, so more than enough talent returns to fill the available holes. On defense, there's some stuff to like, especially the linebacking corps, which returns senior starters Bo Ruud and Corey McKeon, who were all Big-12 in 2006 and 2nd team all Big-12 in 2005, respectively. Talented if oft-injured Steve Octavien returns in the other spot, and there's also tons of talented depth. The secondary should also be much improved after a disappointing season last year. CB Zackary Bowman's story is a lot like Octavien - more than enough talent to dominate, but often struggling with injuries. Still, the Huskers should easily get by without him, as they have both honorable mention all-Big 12 Cortney Grixby and 2005 starter Andre Jones at the position. The defensive line is easily the biggest weakness, or at least question mark, for Nebraska as a whole. No starters return, and there's very little experience, although there's a very high talent level. Hopefully they'll come together before the game against USC. Nebraska should have another good year, although they may not reach double digit wins. USC is, obviously, the big test on the out of conference schedule, and the Huskers draw both Texas and Missouri at home. Still, they do have some luck, in that they get possible trap games at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Kansas State all in Lincoln. This should be another solid year, and Nebraska has a great shot at repeating as Big 12 North champs.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Kansas State
3-5 is somewhat of a glut, but Kansas State seems to be the most well-rounded of these teams. The Wildcat offense was fairly mediocre last year, but looks to be much improved. Returning QB Josh Freeman was thrown into the fire as a freshman last year, and did about as expected: sone decent numbers (1780 on 51.9% passing) but a horrible 6/15 TD/INT ratio. He has the talent to be much improved this year, and he should be helped by returning honorable mention all-Big 12 WR Jordy Nelson. The improvement of the offensive line should also be a help, as three starters return along with RG Logan Robinson, who started the last four games of 2006. All in all, the offense won't be able to compete with, say, Nebraska or Missouri, but should move up a tier. On defense, things should also steadily improve. The secondary should be the strength - three starters return, including honorable mention all-Big Ten FS Marcus Watts, and the strong safety spot should be easily filled; Andrew Erker, who started for Watts after he was injured, returns, and KSU brings in talented JuCo DB Gary Chandler. The front seven is more a mixed bag - the defensive line should be a strength, returning all-Big 12 DE Ian Campbell as one of three starters, but the linebacking corps is fairly untested. Luckily, the Wildcats get both Kansas and Colorado at home, so the possibility of an upset is diminished. Still, KSU has a number of road games that aren't likely to be won - Nebraska and Texas in-conference, as well as Auburn to start the season; at Oklahoma State should also be a tough one. While KSU is an improving team headed back in the right direction, and while they should be solid this year, I don't see it as a breakout season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
4. Kansas
Kansas's 6-6 record played mostly to projection last year, mostly on the strength of a very good offense and a defense that was, well, not so much. QB Kerry Meier returns after a decent freshman year (1193, 56.5%, 13/10); while he should improve on those numbers, exactly how much remains to be seen, as the offensive line is somewhat of a question mark. Both starting tackles return, but the middle three spots have been gutted; there's some limited starting experience, but things could go either way - the line may not come together, but there's enough talent where the Jayhawks may not see much of a dropoff. Luckily, KU has the schedule early to where the latter can happen. Still, if the OL doesn't develop, it may be a big concern to the offense, as the running game is also in flux. Jon Cornish led the Big 12 in rushing last year, but departs, leaving talented sophomore Jake Sharp as the starter - while Sharp, as his 6.1 YPC last year shows, can excel, who knows how he'll do if the line is weak. On the flip side, things should be much improved from last year's dismal defense. This is especially true along the secondary, which was horrible last year but returns a surprisingly excellent duo of CBs, in all-Big 12 junior Aqib Talib and sophomore Anthony Webb, who were both playmakers last season. The front seven should also see some improvement, as Kansas returns an experienced LB corps, and a defensive line that features a mix of talent and experience, including 2nd team all-Big 12 DT James McClinton. While the offense may take a step down, the defense should be much-improved, making Kansas a more well-rounded, and probably more improved team this year. While the OOC schedule contains two tough MAC teams, Central Michigan and Toledo, Kansas is still in a position where they can sweep that, and combined with home games against Baylor and Iowa State, sets up the Jayhawks for bowl eligibility. Having both Kansas State and Colorado on the road doesn't give them much of a safety net, however. Still, again, this should be an improved team, and with some luck here and there, one that could easily surprise with a 7 or 8 win season.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
5. Colorado
While last year was a step back, it wasn't an unmitigated disaster; Colorado played Georgia among other teams close, and should've fallen to about 4-8, rather than 2-10. The first step will be improving an offense that was close to the dregs last year, and luckily, things seem positioned to do just that. While QB Bernard Jackson wasn't a disaster last year, a 49.3% completion percentage suggests there's room for improvement, and he gives way to talented redshirt frosh Cody Hawkins, who also happens to be coach Dan Hawkins's son. The other transition takes place along the offensive line, where CU loses two starters; it's much the same story, as mediocre experience gives way to extremely promising talent, including true frosh Ryan Miller, perhaps the best OL recruit of the 2007 class. Hawkins, both Cody and Dan, will have a number of weapons to work with; honorable mention all-Big 12 RB Hugh Charles returns, as does everyone of note in the receiving corps. The defense should at least remain steady; each unit has losses, but returns enough experience to stay stable. Four of the front seven return from a run D that was the Buffaloes' strength last year, and the three other spots should be filled by players with starting experience. Things should be most improved in the seconday, however; senior all-Big 12 CB Terrence Wheatley is one of two returning starters, and again, experienced depth returns, as well as talented Idaho transfer SS Daniel Dykes. Colorado could be a surprise team, especially in the second year of Hawkins's systems, though the schedule isn't very conducive to success. Three of the first five games are Florida State and Oklahoma at home and Arizona State on the road, and possible upsets against KSU or Texas Tech are also away from Boulder. Colorado could sneak its way into bowl eligibility, as this is a team talented enough to pull off an upset or two, but it doesn't look like the record will match the team's actual improvement.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-3 conference wins
6. Iowa State
This will not go well. Neither side of the ball was very good last year, with the offense being slightly better than the defense, and the Cyclones only return 4 starters from the former and 7 from the latter. On offense, QB Bret Meyer returns for his fourth year as starter, and after being the Big 12's best returning QB by default last year, he put up a mediocre season (2546, 56.4%, 12/12). Luckily, he'll be throwing to a top receiver in Todd Blythe, who suffered injuries last year but was all-Big 12 in 2005. Still, past that, WR depth is mediocre. There doesn't look to be much help elsewhere, either. The top two rushers leave from last year's disappointing RB corps, so while things would be poised to improve, the offensive line has also been decimated by graduation, returning only one starter. There's enough upperclassmen and JuCo transfers to patch something together, but between the inexperience and the new system, ehhhh. There should be more improvement on defense, however. Three of four starters return in the secondary, and all-Big 12 Alvin Bowen comes back after leading the NCAA in tackles per game. This looks like a lost year for ISU, as even in the best-case scenario, there isn't much upward mobility. The Cyclones draw both Texas and Oklahoma from the South, but not Baylor, and they also have to play Iowa out of conference. ISU may be able to upset Kansas State or Colorado at home late, but outside of that, the only game they may win after their last two is at Toledo. The Cyclones may not go winless, but if things go as well as they can, they'll probably top out at last year's 4-8 record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
Big 12 South:
1. Oklahoma
Oh, it's close. Both OU and Texas could've gone undefeated last year, and they were both statistically similar (Texas a notch better on offense, Oklahoma the same on defense), but I give the edge to the Sooners. I actually may like the OU offense ever-so-slightly better, as they return eight starters and those losses may more or less be washes. Redshirt frosh Sam Bradford was recently announced as the starter, and while conventional wisdom says he will see a drop from departing Paul Thompson's stats (2667, 60.7%, 22/11), Thompson was forced into action in August due to suspension. So, while there may be a slight drop-off, it shouldn't be as much as you'd think. Similarly, star RB and top-10 draft pick Adrian Peterson has departed, but OU has the 1-2 punch to replace him: senior Allen Patrick, who played well while Peterson was injured, and redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray, who has been touted as, well, the next Adrian Peterson. They'll be running behind a top-tier offensive line, which returns four starters and a heckuva lot of talent, including JuCo stud Phil Loadholt. And hey, just for good measure, everyone returns in the receiving corps, including 2nd team all-Big 12 WR Malcolm Kelly and two honorable mention TEs in Joe Jon Finley and Brody Eldridge. And, of course, the OU defense should be stout once again. The front seven replaces a lot, so that may be the weakness early on, but as you'd expect, the level of talent here, especially at linebacker and DT, is elite enough where things should be fine. And, luckily, OU also returns what is probably the best secondary in the nation, as all four starters return, including all-Big 12 SS Reggie Smith, and there's tons of experienced depth. It should be another elite-level year for OU, and while there's tests at home against Miami, Missouri, and Texas A&M, the Sooners' national title hopes should once again come down to the game with Texas.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 6-8 conference wins
2. Texas
Don't hurt me, Longhorns fans. It's close between OU and Texas, but minor questions along the o-line and especially concerns with the secondary for Texas made me put them here. Might as well start with that offensive line, as it's really the one point of concern on the offense, if it even is one. Since sophomore Adam Ulatoski started 7 games last year, the Longhorns essentially return 3 starters. Everyone has talent, but has spent most of their career as a 2nd stringer - this is fine for new center Dallas Griffin, since he's a senior, but it may be more of a concern at left guard, where everyone is an underclassman. Still, in the grand scheme of things, the line should be more than fine. Returning QB Colt McCoy did way better than anyone expected as a redshirt freshman (2570, 68.2%, 29/7), and that's with some injuries at the end of the year. And he'll have some weapons too, with all-Big 12 WR Limas Sweed heading an elite receiving corps, and 2nd team all-Big 12 RB Jamaal Charles returning for what should be an improvement over last year's 831 yard/7 TD season. On defense, the front seven should be among the best in the nation, as everyone returns except for the DEs, including DT Frank Okam, who's one of the top few in the nation. And hey, those DEs are no slouches, as both Brian Orakpo and Aaron Lewis have put up impressive numbers in the action they've seen. The secondary is easily the biggest question mark for the team as a whole. The safeties should be fine - SS Marcus Griffin is the lone returning starter, and new FS Drew Kelson is a senior with some starting experience. The CBs are another story, however: there's lots of talent, obviously, but almost nothing in terms of experience, even with one or two upperclassmen. The pass defense will probably be the key to Texas's season, especially since Texas should be so stout against the run that teams will throw early and often. There's not much hidden insight or anything I can give into Texas's season as a whole. Texas is an obvious national title contender, and Oklahoma is the obvious big game that matters. Texas gets upset hopefuls TCU and Nebraska at home, leaving late road games at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M the only looming traps if the Longhorns get by OU. Another season, most likely another set of double-digit W's.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 9-12 overall wins, 5-8 conference wins
3. Texas A&M
Since the near-upset at the hands of Army is the first thought that comes to mind when I think of "2006 Aggies", it's surprising that TAMU was 6 total points away from being undefeated in the regular season. If only the Aggies were returning more on defense, then I might think about putting them higher. Might as well start with the offense, where TAMU has a pretty loaded backfield. Junior Stephen McGee had a very underrated year last season, throwing for 2295 and a 12/2 TD/INT ratio on 62% passing. And his TD count might've been higher if not for touchdown machine Jorvorskie Lane, who had 19 scores on the ground. And hey! He might not even be the best back on the team, as TAMU also returns sophomore Mike Goodson, who led the team with 929 rushing yards on an outstanding 6.7 yards per carry. And things should only improve behind an elite offensive line that returns four top-tier starters; the fifth should be senior guard Chris Yoder, who actually started as a freshman. And hey, junior TE Martellus Bennett is one of the best out there too. On defense, the defensive line should be a strength, as DE Chris Harrington and DT Red Bryant are arguably the Aggies' best players on that side of the ball. Since A&M switched to a 4-2-5 last year, they only have two linebackers, but that unit should be fairly well off, too; starter Misi Tupe returns alongside Mark Dodge, who actually earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors as a part time starter. The secondary should do fairly well - having five starters spreads the depth a bit thin, but A&M does return three starters. If A&M had a luckier schedule, they could be a surprise national title contender, and while they get Texas at home to end the season, they have one too many tough road games in Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Still, TAMU has the talent level (one probably higher than the two North teams) to at least split those, and it looks like this should be a good enough season to save Dennis Franchione's job.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-7 conference wins
4. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a dangerous trio of players at the skill positions. QB Bobby Reid returns after a solid first year as starter (2266, 55.4%, 24/11); while his stats may not match his reputation just yet, that may change this season, especially since he'll be throwing to UNC transfer and last year's Big 12 Newcomer Of The Year in Adarius Bowman. And at RB, OSU returns talented sophomore Keith Toston and starter Dantrell Savage, who ran for 820 yards on 6.5 yards per carry when not injured. The offensive line should once again be solid -- three starters return, and while both the depth at guard is shaky, things should remain around last year's level. The defense should see some noticeable improvement. Every starter returns from both the secondary and the linebacking corps, including QB-turned-FS Donovan Woods and top CB Martel Van Zant (he's deaf!). And while the defensive line officially returns no starters, it should be fairly well off. The talent level is high, and both DEs might as well be returning starters; Nathan Peterson earned honorable mention all-Big 12 honors in limited action last year, and Marque Fountain has only seen part-time starting duty due to constant struggles with injury. All in all, OK State should be one a much improved team, and much more well-rounded than their OFFENSETASTIC! 2006, although they may struggle to turn that into something palpable. They have OU, A&M, Nebraska, and an OOC game against Georgia all on the road, which greatly diminishes the chance of an upset. Still, this is a team that can torch an opponent with secondary issues, and they get Texas at home, so there is the chance of an upset there. It should be another bowl-eligible season, easy, and in a different year a team like this might see some noticeable upward mobility, but with what other teams return, OSU may just have to settle for closing the gap.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
5. Texas Tech
Texas Tech's defense was surprisingly fine last year, but only 5 starters return, so that's probably out the window for 2007. So, you know what to expect, a lot of passing yards on offense, and on defense, prayer. TTU's strength this year is their backfield; RB Shannon Woods was all-Big 12 last year, and Graham Harrell is the first returning starter here in five years. Of course, he's looking to build on the usual insane Red Raiders QB stat line: 4555, 66.8%, 38/11. Two of the four starting WRs also return, but the main concern should be the O-line, where only honorable mention all-Big 12 left tackle Louis Vasquez returns. The talent level's enough where things should be solid, but still, it should be comparatively rough going. On defense, at least three of four starters return in the secondary, led by SS Joe Garcia. In the front seven, however, there's only two starters back. While the LB corps has a solid mix of some experience and some talent, the defensive line should be more of a concern; there's DE Jake Ratliff, who was honorable mention all-Big 12 last year, but past that, it's almost exclusively underclassmen. It should be a down year for Texas Tech - the offensive line is a big question mark, and the defense should regress quite a bit from last year. Luckily, TTU has a weak out of conference schedule, and they draw both Iowa State and Colorado at home from the North. That, plus Baylor, gives them a safety net for bowl eligibility, but past that, there's doesn't seem to be much upward potential.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 6-8 overall wins, 2-4 conference wins
6. Baylor
Poor Baylor. While their 4-8 record was close to projection, they weren't very good on the whole statistically last year, and this season looks like a rebuilding one. Whoever the starter at QB is (the favorite seems to be Kent State transfer Michael Machen), at least three of Baylor's four returning starters on offense are along the line. Sophomore WR David Gettis was a high-talent recruit; he may provide a bright spot, as his 20.5 yards per his 4 receptions showed. While Baylor's in the second year of a spread offense, the talent losses will probably prevent the Bears from reaping the benefits; at the very least, the running game should be able to improve from dead last in America. Defense is slightly better - five of the front seven return, with the bright spot being 2nd team all-Big 12 LB Joe Pawelek. The secondary is much more of a mixed bag; while both starting safeties return, the CB position mostly have players who haven't done much in their playing time. While the Bears should be improved on defense somewhat, it looks like a hapless year. Baylor should still win 3 games based on their weak OOC schedule, but without drawing Iowa State from the North, their best chance at a conference win looks to be at home against Colorado, where their chances are still fairly slim.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 2-4 overall wins, 0-1 conference wins
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