THE CONSENSUS:
1. USC (#1 overall - AT: #1, LN: #1, SN: #1, SS: #1, ST: #1)
2. California (#12t overall - AT: #11, LN: #12, SN: #12, SS: #11, ST: #22)
3. UCLA (#15 overall - AT: #15, LN: #22, SN: #10, SS: #17, ST: #20)
4. Oregon State (#26 overall - AT: #22, LN: #32, SN: #29, SS: #24, ST: #28)
5. Arizona State (#37 overall - AT: #44, LN: #30, SN: #41, SS: --, ST: #27)
6. Oregon (#40 overall - AT: #40, LN: #47, SN: #52, SS: --, ST: #16)
7. Arizona (#46 overall - AT: #37, LN: #46, SN: #56, SS: --, ST: #42)
8. Washington State (#62 overall - AT: #58, LN: #71, SN: #79, SS: --, ST: #55)
9. Washington (#65t overall - AT: #64, LN: #66, SN: #85, SS: --, ST: #57)
10. Stanford (#97 overall - AT: #100, LN: #79, SN: #108, SS: --, ST: #90)
OVERRATED: California. UCLA has the favorable schedule to at least meet their high expectations - the Bears benefitted from a very lucky defense last year, one that returns only five starters.
UNDERRATED: Oregon. Their late-season slide was mostly bad luck, and they return a lot from a team that could've had double-digit wins last year.
THE TFFE OFFICIAL RANKINGS, POWER POLL STYLE:
1. USC
Well, duh. There's almost no point in analyzing returning starters with USC since the talent level is so high, but it's still a very scary thought that the Trojans return 10 starters from what was already a very good defense. USC didn't dominate statistically last year, but it was still, obviously, a very good year, and again, the Trojans look to only be better, especially on D. And, hey, senior QB John David Booty is the early Heisman favorite, and they go about 10 deep at running back. I'd point out individual star players, but pretty much everyone returning earned some sort of honor, so I'll just say that Booty, DT Sedrick Ellis, and LBs Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga were all-Pac 10 last year, and that 2005 All-American DE Lawrence Jackson should recover from a disappointing junior campaign. USC is far from an unbeatable team; the one huge question mark is the young WR corps, and while there's much worse places to have experience, if nobody comes through there, that could be a problem. This is one of those years where USC gets a bunch of tricky opponents on the road, as they travel to Oregon, California, Arizona State, and out of conference to Nebraska and Notre Dame, plus they have the UCLA rivalry game at home. USC's the first- or second-most talented team in the country, but there's still a chance they lose a game somewhere along the way.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 10-12 overall wins, 7-9 conference wins
2. Oregon
Oregon's implosion down the stretch was more due to bad luck than any sudden lack in effectiveness, as pretty much every game down the stretch was winnable. The defensive statistics for the season alone reflect this, as the Ducks' opponents scored about a touchdown more than you'd expect based on the yardage. But either way, the stars of the show will be the offense, where New Hampshire's Chip Kelly takes over for the departed Gary Crowton. He'll oversee a talented backfield, led by stud junior RB Jonathan Stewart; while Stewart's been good, he has a huge amount of room for improvement, as he may be the most talented back in the conference. QB Dennis Dixon should have a much more productive senior campaign - while his 2143 yards and 61.2% completion percentage were good last year, his 12/14 TD/INT ratio, not so much. He'll be throwing to a talented WR corps, led by junior Jaison Williams. The offensive line should be around last year's level -- three starters return, and the Ducks bring in a top JuCo tackle in Fenuki Tupou. On defense, the secondary should be one of the best in the country; four of five starters return, including star safety Patrick Chung and last year's Pac 10 co-Freshman of the Year, CB Jairus Byrd. The front six pretty much consists of three starters and JuCo talent; while there may be a transition there, the defense should improve as a whole due to the secondary's strength and regression to the mean. While Oregon has road games at Michigan and UCLA, they have the luck of getting USC, Arizona State, and California at home. The Ducks have a good shot at winning three of those, and should come close to last year's projected 9 or 10 wins. There's some reason for concern, especially since new OC Chip Kelly is untested at a I-A level, but the Pac 10 is wide open enough where Oregon should have a great year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-9 conference wins
3. Arizona State
The Sun Devils return a very good offense that should be much improved, and that starts with junior QB Rudy Carpenter. Carpenter led the country in passing efficiency as a freshman, but had a good, if disappointing second season (2523, 55.4%, 23/14). He later admitted to a fractured hand, so his statistics should be much improved. He'll also be throwing behind a much-improved O-line, which returns all five starters, three of which earned 2nd team or honorable mention all-Pac 10 honors. And the rest of the skill positions are also in good hands, as 2nd team all-Pac 10 RB Ryan Torain heads up a stacked depth chart, and senior do-everything WR Rudy Burgess is also back for another year. The defense is more of a mixed bag. Only three starters return in the front seven, though there are some sophomores with starting experience in the linebacker corps. The secondary also has to replace two starters, but some experienced upperclassmen should be plugged right in alongside senior CB Justin Tyron and FS Josh Barrett, both of which were honorable mention all-Pac 10. The Arizona State defense was very unlucky in terms of yardage vs. scoring allowed; even if the defense's level of play falters due to returning only 5 starters, the end results should still be improved. That, combined with a pretty high-powered offense that should improve with the health of Carpenter, makes ASU, much like Oregon, a very improved team. The Sun Devils also get a favorable schedule, as their four toughest games aren't until the last five; Arizona State has an excellent chance at starting 7-1 or 8-0. This should be a breakout year.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 8-11 overall wins, 6-9 conference wins
4. UCLA
UCLA returns almost everyone on both sides of the ball, which is the obvious reason for such preseason optimism. Along the offensive line, everyone but center Robert Chai returns, including top guard Shannon Tevaga. The line should be much improved, and should thus lead to much better rushing numbers from senior Chris Markey, who ran for 1107 yards, but only 2 touchdowns. Junior QB Ben Olson should also have a much-improved year, if only due to health - he threw for 822 yards and a 5/5 ratio on 63.7% passing before going down with injury. He'll be throwing to a deep WR corps, led by returning senior starters Marcus Everett and Brandon Breazell, along with 2005's top receiver, Joe Cowan, who returns from injury. On defense, there's very little not to like. Six of the front seven return, and the Bruins have experienced depth. However, last year's vulnerable secondary may now be the strength, as UCLA returns four senior starters, led by 2nd team all-Pac 10 SS Chris Horton and honorable mention CB Trey Brown. UCLA, due to all the returning talent, should obviously be much improved, but remember, this was a .500-level team last year, USC win or not. The low starting point on offense from last year, despite the returnees, makes me put UCLA at #4. Still, the Bruins are the lucky team in the 2-5 glut that draws California, Arizona State, and Oregon all at home. While the talent level may not be up to the Ducks or the Sun Devils, UCLA may be the team that winds up in second place.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-11 overall wins, 4-8 conference wins
5. California
Might as well start with the good news, that being the offense. Nate Longshore was the latest in a line of very good Jeff Tedford QBs, gaining honorable mention all-Pac 10 honors on 3021 yards and a 24/13 ratio on 60.2% passing. He'll be throwing to what might be the best receiving corps in the country, led by all-Pac 10 junior DeSean Jackson and two honorable mention all-Pac 10 seniors, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan. Running back Justin Forsett also returns for his senior season; he's played well in backup duty for NFL first-rounder Marshawn Lynch, rushing for 626 and 4 last season. And hey, the offensive line should be above-average as well; while two starters are gone, there's enough experience and talent to do well, and two of the returning guys are all-Pac 10 center Alex Mack and 2nd team all-Pac 10 tackle Mike Gibson. The defense, however, provides less reasons for optimism. On the plus side, a secondary that hemorrhaged yardage last season should be very much improved, as three starters return. Still, the open spot at CB may be picked upon early, as there's much more talent than experience. The front seven may also be a bit shaky - while the linebacking corps has enough experienced depth to make up for two lost starters, the defensive line returns senior DT Matthew Malele and not much else. With time, things should come together, but with the Bears leading off against Tennessee, it'll be a trial by fire. Either way, while the secondary may be improved, the defense as a whole should see some serious regression, as the Bears were extremely lucky last year; Cal allowed 20.1 points per game, while other teams close to them in yardage allowed gave up anywhere from 23 to 32. With a questionable defense that should regress and getting UCLA, Arizona State, and Oregon all on the road (along with the OOC game against Tennessee), Cal could see quite a regression from last year's record.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 7-10 overall wins, 5-7 conference wins
6. Oregon State
Oregon State was a thoroughly decent team on both sides of the ball and not much more last year, though the Beavers won pretty much all of their close games en route to a 10-4 record. On offense, things look to improve on the ground. All-Pac 10 running back Yvenson Bernard returns after a 1307 yard, 12 TD season, and he'll be running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four of five starters. As for the passing game, ehhhh. Star WR Sammie Stroughter, who earned 2nd team all-Pac 10 honors last year, is taking an indefinite leave of absence, and while that's a major loss, the Beavers have another capable senior (Anthony Wheat-Brown) who can lessen the blow. The real concern may be at the quarterback position, where expected starter, sophomore Sean Canfield will split time with JuCo transfer Lyle Moevao. This...seems like a bad idea. The team used this to an extent last year with Canfield and departed senior Matt Moore, but teams often succeed DESPITE this kind of arrangement, not because of it, and it seems like a risky idea given Oregon State is coming off a season with a lot of luck. The defense should do very well, as OSU returns 8 starters. The linebacking corps should be the strength, as the Beavers return all three starters, all seniors, including two time all-Pac 10 2nd teamer Derrick Doggett. Really, the defensive is solid wherever starters don't return as well, since there's an upperclassman with experience at pretty much every position. The Beavers are solidly at a talent level behind the #2-5 teams here, and above the #7-9 glut. And since with only two exceptions (at Wazzou and UCLA at home), they play the teams I rank above them on the road, and the ones below them at home, 6th place is about where they should finish. If the Beavers stick with a QB who gets hot, they may be able to engineer an upset or two, but this should be a .500 year at worst.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 5-9 overall wins, 3-6 conference wins
7. Arizona
The offense has been the problem for the Wildcats the last few years, and last year was no exception, as Arizona had less yards per game than all but four teams in the country. What this means for next year is anyone's guess, as the team brings in OC Sonny Dykes, who was co-coordinator for one of the best offenses in the nation at Texas Tech. He has talent to work with, as the Wildcats bring back 8 returning starters. QB Willie Tuitama had a disappointing and injury-plagued sophomore campaign, but still put up passable numbers (1335, 55.9%, 7/6); he should be much-improved if healthy, especially with the new offense. Helping his health should be a much-improved offensive line, which returns all 5 starters and is teeming with high-talent, if not always experienced, depth. Receivers is somewhat of a question mark, but should still be well off; upperclassmen Anthony Johnson and Michael Thomas are returning starters, but the rest of the depth chart is talented players who have almost no experience. The RB corps is also talented, and while senior Chris Jennings has some experience, the new offense utilizes running backs much more in a receiving role; how they'll fare is somewhat of a crapshoot. The defense's improvement is much easier to projected, as the Wildcats return 9 of 11 starters on that side of the ball. Senior DE Louis Holmes was 2nd team all-Pac 10 out of junior college last year, and should improve upon that providing he avoids suspension. Senior CB Antoine Cason was also all-Pac 10 last season, and is one of the best at his position in the nation. The Wildcats have a tough schedule, and while their defense should keep them in games, bowl eligibility should depend on how well the new offense takes. If things go well, they may be able to get an upset at Oregon State or Arizona State, or at home against UCLA. If not, there's very little room for error.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 4-8 overall wins, 2-5 conference wins
8. Washington State
Wazzou was a somewhat underrated team last year, featuring an upper-tier offense that, had it scored as many points as yardage would dictate, would've led the Cougars to 7 or 8 wins. While there are some losses, the offense should remain above-average. Senior QB Alex Brink returns after a 2nd team all-Pac 10 year, where he threw for 2899 uyards and a 19/10 ratio on 60.9% passing. He'll be throwing from behind a passing line that should remain constant if not improved, as three starters return, and the open spots will be plugged by high-talent juniors. Brink will also return two of his top three targets in senior Michael Bumpus and junior Brandon Gibson; return man Charles Dillon will be the new #3. Sophomore Dwight Tardy will lead a running back corps that returns everyone of note, and should be much improved. The defense doesn't return nearly as much. The defensive line is where most of the experience is, as while all-Pac 10 DE Mkristo Bruce departs, the other three starters return. The LB corps is probably the weakest unit; starting MLB Greg Trent returns and junior Cory Evans has some experience, but there isn't much past that. Although sophomore Andy Mattingly is Don's son, so opposing O-lineman may become distracted and try to talk to him about that or something. The secondary suffers similar losses due to graduation, but returns free safety Husain Abdullah and brings in tons of JuCo talent, led by elite recruit Terry Mixon. Wazzou's offense should keep them in a lot of games, but without much returning on defense, it'll be difficult to make it back to .500 against a tough schedule. Having to play at Wisconsin out of conference is a killer, as having Stanford at home seems like the only guaranteed win in the Pac 10.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 3-6 overall wins, 1-4 conference wins
9. Washington
Washington was below-average on both sides of the ball overall, but still played most of their games close, and with some Maryland-like luck, could've had 7 or 8 wins. 5-7 was about their projected record though, especially after then-QB Isaiah Stanback was knocked out for the year. Redshirt freshman Jake Locker will be the new QB, and comes in amidst huge expectations. While he has the talent to do well, at the very least, he should be an improvement over now-backup Carl Bonnell's 2006 numbers (916, 43.9%, 7/11). He'll be helped out by a rushing attack that should be much improved; leading rusher Louis Rankin returns, and top recruit JR Hasty will debut after missing 2006 due to academics. The offensive line should at least be decent enough to protect Locker; three starters return, and while there's little starting experience past that, there's lots of talented 2nd-stringers. The defensive situation actually looks a lot like in-state rival Wazzou's; most of the depth returns along the defensive line, which will consist of three returning starters and part-time starting DT Jordan Reffett. Past that, there's an inexperienced linebacking corps and a secondary that returns starters, but needs incoming JuCo talent to play well. Washington should be a wholly decent team, but that schedule is hell; the Huskies play Boise State, Hawaii, and Ohio State out of conference, and the two easiest teams on the schedule, Syracuse and Stanford, are both road games. This seems like a lost year, and any good news will probably be regarding the maturation of Locker.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 1-4 overall wins, 0-3 conference wins
10. Stanford
On the plus side, 16 starters return, but who knows what that means for a team that was pretty bad on defense and absolutely abhorrent on offense. Senior QB TC Ostrander has limited starting experience, and he should improve on last year's poor overall numbers at the position (1945, 52.8%, 10/11). He'll be helped by a WR corps that returns everyone of note, led by seniors Mark Bradford and 6'7" Evan Moore. The running back corps also returns pretty much everyone, and there's way too much talent to have another season as horrible as last year's was, at least you'd think. And hey, that's much the same story for the offensive line, who returns three starters and two seniors to fill the open slots. On defense, the front seven should be the most improved unit. Every starter returns except for NFL draft pick LB Michael Okwo, and there's a ton of young talent to draw from if things don't go well. The secondary is more of a mixed bag - both starting cornerbacks return, but past that, ehhhhhh. New free safety Austin Yancy had experience starting last year, although it was at receiver. Stanford has enough talent where they can pull off some upsets if Harbaugh coaches them up, but having TCU and Notre Dame as out of conference games doesn't help matters. There's a decent chance the Cardinal improve over last year's one win, at least.
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES: 0-3 overall wins, 0-2 conference wins
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